Fantasy Baseball Today - Returning to Greatness? (02/03: Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 4, 2020

Which once great players can get back to the Fantasy elite? We'll discuss some names, but first let's get into the news (3:00) as a Mookie Betts trade could be close and Trevor Story got a new contrac...t. Will he run less now that he got paid? ... Who can return to greatness? We make cases for and against a number of players, beginning with Andrew Benintendi (11:30), Wil Myers (15:35) and Paul Goldschmidt (17:40). Then we've got a couple of closers (21:25) and a couple of guys named Carlos (32:00) ... Can Corey Kluber be an ace again (39:00)? Will Travis Shaw rebound (46:40)? What about a former ace looking to put a lousy 2019 behind him (49:03) and a former MVP looking to stay on the field (53:15)? ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. All right. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. All right.
Starting point is 00:00:25 It is baseball time. That other sport is over. Super Bowl in the books. Time for fantasy baseball. Welcome to the show. It's fantasy baseball today. After Dark, Monday evening at 9.30 p.m. Eastern Adamazer, Scott White, Chris Towers. Scott, how was your Super Bowl, sir? It was fine. I ate a lot of junk. That's the main thing I look forward to for the Super Bowl, unless my team is playing in it, which has only happened twice ever.
Starting point is 00:00:54 It's just like eating a bunch of junk, like wings and nachos. I had a root beer float. It was great. That is some serious junk right there. Chris Touse. Speaking of junk, Chris Tau, I don't know, I don't know how people are supposed to interpret that. Here's Chris. Well, so I thought where you were going to go, and I think we need to get into this right off the top, is your junk opinion about the Super Bowl halftime show, which was incredibly fun. Everybody's telling me, everybody's telling me how wrong I am about the halftime show. I thought it was bad. I got to, I got to.
Starting point is 00:01:31 and campy and just it was a ball. I had a blast watching that. Look, this is it. This is the, this is the, I don't like halftime shows. All right, that's it. I don't like halftime shows. And I just, I don't care for them. Just, I'm going to change the channel next time.
Starting point is 00:01:48 I don't either, Adam. But see, I don't, I don't really watch them. And then I don't comment on them. And I do think this has become like a strange cultural phenomenon where after every Super Bowl, There has to be these like polar opposite views of how the Super Bowl halftime show win. Like it's always the most divisive thing about the day before. It's just like, who cares? It's just music.
Starting point is 00:02:11 It's just an oversized, it's just an outsized concert and it gets the appropriate, I guess, outsized reaction. Exactly. That's my point. When you're going to do this, go freaking big. And that's what they did. It was ridiculous. It was oversized.
Starting point is 00:02:26 It was so much fun. Anyone who disagrees with me is wrong. Mm-hmm. Well, tis this season. Okay, so let's get into our baseball opinions here and been seeing some interesting stuff from Chris on Twitter about mooky bets and why getting traded to the Padres wouldn't be such a good thing. So, you know, I don't want to get too far into it because I think there's a chance very soon. This week he gets traded maybe and then we will certainly really get into it. But Chris, you brought up home road splits and also the lineup and what could be very. different if Mookie Betz gets traded specifically to the Padres. Dodgers are also another destination. That would be better, I assume. But yeah, what do you think right now on bets? Yeah, so the biggest thing with Betts, if you look at his home road splits, like, I think there's an obvious comparison for the Padres, and that's Manny Machado. And Manny Machado really, for his career, never really hit well outside of Camden Yards. He was like a high 700s, low 800s OPS bat.
Starting point is 00:03:24 And that's not what Mookie Betts has been in his career in Fenway Park. Fenway Park is a good hitters park, but it actually suppresses power, home run power specifically. And you see that Mukie Betts has actually hit more home runs on the road. The biggest thing, though, is Boston inflates every other type of hit really dramatically. It has a really high inflationary effect on Babb. I believe it's the second biggest outside of course field. And so Moogie Betts doesn't hit for the same average at home. Now, Pedco Park is similar to Fenway in that it is hard to hit home runs there, relatively speaking, but it also suppresses basically every other type of hit. And so you don't get that it's a worst park. And last year, the Red Sox lead off spot saw 786 plate appearances. The Padres had
Starting point is 00:04:12 734. That's about 50, 52. That's a significant difference when we're talking about volume, especially when you add in that he'll have a worse home park and really a worse division to hit in in in terms of the home parks at least. Yeah. I think counter, though, would be, I would expect if they trade from Uki Betts, if they get more games from Tautis, if they get a bounce back from Machado, you close the gap a little bit on those plate appearances from the lead-off spot.
Starting point is 00:04:41 You know, you figure they would score more runs and be a better offense. Scott, how much of a difference would Betts's value be if he got traded to the Padres versus the Dodgers? I think we'd mostly be having a ceiling type of discussion. how it changes his ceiling. In terms of where he would go in drafts, well, he'd be firmly no higher than the fifth player off the board, right? Like, he would definitely go behind Bellinger at that point.
Starting point is 00:05:12 Well, maybe there's some debate now whether or not he should go ahead. But there's so few players in this player pool who are capable of contributing in all the ways that Mukhi Betz does. Like, if we knew for sure, he goes to the Padres, okay, now he's going to stop running. Like if that was part of the equation, then I could see dropping him further, maybe even potentially out of the first round.
Starting point is 00:05:33 But he could bounce back with a 30-steel season with still a good batting average and still a good power contribution. And of course, he's going to get on base a lot and still have a be one of the top five hitters in fantasy pretty easily. So I don't think it really changes in terms of actual rankings, anything for me. I think I would drop him.
Starting point is 00:05:55 I don't do rankings. It's nice. But I think in my head rankings, I would probably drop him behind Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story. Okay. How about Garrett Cole? Yeah, I think you might, like, it's possible you might take Eric Cole, Jacob McGromb, Justin Verlander, those guys ahead of him as well.
Starting point is 00:06:18 I think it's sort of that more comes down to how you want to build your team than who you think is a better player there in my opinion. Okay. So, Manny Machado was so bad, so bad in Petco Park, a 219 batting average last year with six doubles on the road. He had 289, 70 batting average points and 15 doubles. The home runs were similar. We're going to talk about Machado because the topic of today's show is basically,
Starting point is 00:06:47 can these players return to greatness? And Manny Machado is one of them that we'll be talking about. Just two more news items here. Seattle signed Marco Gonzalez to a four-year $30 million deal. Gonzalez has had an ERA right around four, two straight seasons. Better real-life pitcher than fantasy pitcher. Kind of a high-whip, not a big strikeout rate. Scott, is Marco Gonzalez worth taking it a 12-team mixed league?
Starting point is 00:07:13 He is not. No. Okay. No. Good. Then let's move on. Next item. Colorado signed Trevor Story to a two-year 27.
Starting point is 00:07:22 $7.5 million deal. Still, it doesn't affect when he's eligible for free agency, just takes a couple of arbitration years away. Email from Jason and Seattle, Washington, Dear Hoffman, Bauer, and Cahill, Trevor's, Trevor's. Yeah. I understand why some experts believe Trevor's story
Starting point is 00:07:42 should go off the board as early as sixth overall, but are you concerned that since he just signed a mini extension to buy out his arbitration years, that he will no longer run like he used to? It's an impossible question to answer. Like, we just, this is the biggest thing about projecting stolen bases is it's just, it's about the, the desire and willingness to do the thing as much as it is the ability. We know he has the ability to do it.
Starting point is 00:08:09 And we know in the first two years of his career, he didn't really do it that much. But he showed the ability in the minors and now he's doing it. So it's possible that they may, he may choose to run less. But I, I don't think. he was motivated to run in 2018 versus 2017 because he was arbitration eligible the following year. Okay. I think you
Starting point is 00:08:31 you know, if he steals 10 bases and Trevor's story still gives you good batting average, hits around 290 to 300, if he gives you a bunch of runs plus RBIs, it's 35 or more home runs. I'm trying
Starting point is 00:08:47 to remember his stats off the top of my head. Is that still a first round player with 10 steals? No. I think there are enough players who have a case to go in the first round that if you cut Trevor Story
Starting point is 00:09:02 steals in half, he probably drops outside of it. Now it's still a second round player. Right. I would say, but... Yeah, and that's kind of where I struggle with Trevor's story. I'm not quite as on board
Starting point is 00:09:16 with ranking of 6th, though I'm having to rethink my approach to stolen bases a little because I really haven't been happy with what I was able to do the first couple roto drafts I've been a part of how I was able to handle that category without making the early investment in it. You have to be really conscientious about it. I'm just not sure that Trevor Story, the hope of him stealing 20 bases for a third
Starting point is 00:09:46 consecutive season is being conscientious enough to pass up what to me is superior hitters. Like, yeah, it totally seems it seems highly plausible. Trevor Story could steal 10 bases or fewer this year. And like when you, when like 20 steals in this environment is a lot just because there are so few out there,
Starting point is 00:10:08 but it's still at a threshold where it wouldn't take that much of a drop off to push it down to a point where it wasn't a lot anymore. you know, it's just kind of a weird, weird thing to account for. Okay. All right, it's Monday night for us, but it's Tuesday for you all listening. Maybe. But it's certainly not Monday night when you're listening, unless you're really dedicated.
Starting point is 00:10:32 So how about team name Tuesday? First one of the year, team name Tuesday. Remember, you can email us Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Let's remember some Gallegos. I like it. But I don't like the erasure of the truce. true first team main Tuesday of the year, which happened last Friday. Oh, what was it?
Starting point is 00:10:52 I can't remember, but we did it. Okay, I'm sorry. My bad. It doesn't count unless I'm on the show. I don't know what let's remember some guys is. I had to Google this, but I do know, you know, like Mike Gallego. It's been thing. They would just, they would just remember some old baseball players. That was it. They would just, remember this guy? Let's talk about him. It's great fun. It's a light segment. Okay, cool.
Starting point is 00:11:16 All right then. Let's get started with our topic of the day. Return to greatness. We all have our lists of players that we're wondering if they can return to greatness. We're going to make a quick case. Then we're going to decide, you know, do we agree with the case? You know, you have to make case for a guy if you don't think he's going to return to greatness. Scott, I'm going to let you go first. Who's your first player for the return to greatness list? My first player is going to be Andrew Benintente, Benintendi, Benintendi, that guy.
Starting point is 00:11:46 Okay. go ahead, make your case. So I'm making the case for why he's going to return or not? Yes, yes. Oh, man. That's the harder way. I guess we know how you feel. So Andrew Ben and Tendee was once the top prospect in baseball.
Starting point is 00:12:03 He was once the A.L. Rookie of the Year runner up. He started his career with two near 2020 seasons where he hit for respectable or better batting average. So after one bad season, we're just going to throw all that away. That seems senseless. Does it not? Okay. There's my case for him. What do you think?
Starting point is 00:12:26 Yeah, I, I, I, yeah, he's so, he's 25 years old. Come on, we can't give up on Andrew Ben and Tendi. He can return to greatness. Specifically, when was he great? He was great in 2018. He was a top 10 outfielder. In 2017, he was a top 20 outfielder. And that's all, he doesn't need to be a top 10 outfielder at his current.
Starting point is 00:12:49 He's 102nd. This is not. He needs to be a top 25 outfield. Yeah, this is not necessarily an ADP discussion for now because everybody on this list that we're going to talk about today could end up being a great value if they return to greatness. Scott, do you think Andrew Bennett-Sendi will return to greatness? No, he's actually on my bust list. Because when you consider the other, the outfielders that go beyond 25, it's a pretty high.
Starting point is 00:13:14 end performers from a year ago, Tray Mancini, Max Kepler, let me see, just going off the ones I remember off the top of my head, but they're all in my best column. Yeah, I mean, the thing about Ben Intendi is it's been a year and a half that he's just been, he's just stopped doing anything well. His past 744, 770 at bats, he has 15 homers and 14 steals, neither of which is a good total over 770 of bats in this environment. And his numbers last year were totally earned. He made weak contact. His plate discipline went askew.
Starting point is 00:13:51 And even the argument I made for him was a stretch, saying he had two near 2020 seasons. I mean, the second of those was only 16 home runs. So I just feel like if you're counting on a bounceback, there's not enough there to back it up. It's really just, you know, this guy is supposed to be good. So he wasn't good. Maybe he'll be good now. Okay, I'll make one case for Ben Intendi. He did something last year that had plagued him throughout his career.
Starting point is 00:14:19 He finally hit Lefties. Hit them fine, not great, but he had a 796 OPS against Lefties. If he had hit against Wrighties, how he had hit in the first three seasons of his career, and combined that with a 796 OPS against Lefties, he probably would have had a breakout season, but he was terrible against Wrighties last year, which was weird. And, well, I wouldn't say terrible, but he was bad, you know, against, not great, not good enough.
Starting point is 00:14:44 I guess what I'm saying is if you can get back to that righty form and keep making improvements against lefties, maybe he can put something together. I'll point out, that's what Max Kepler did. In 2018, he started to make improvements against lefties, and he had really bad luck against righties and just wasn't good against them. He hit a ton of infield fly balls. He couldn't hit for power, but he showed progress against left-handed pitching. And then in 2019, he put both of those things together and emerged as a very,
Starting point is 00:15:12 good outfielder. So that's what I will say. Okay. And Chris, who's your first player on the, can he return to group? Can you save Manny Machado for me? Because I don't have enough guys compared to you with Scott. So I'll take Bichato. Who's the first for you? Um, yeah, I'll go with Will Myers, Carlos Carasco, Carlos Martinez. With Will Myers. I've been, I've tweeted about Will Myers a little bit. And basically the crux of the, I mean, he wasn't any good last year. He he has had trouble staying healthy over the years. But the biggest, like last year, there were stretches where he just wasn't getting played. They were flat out benching him because he wasn't very good and they had a surplus of outfielders.
Starting point is 00:15:54 But you look at the last four seasons when Mo Myers, he's not going to help you much in batting average. He's got really bad play discipline. But he has averaged 26 homers and 23 stolen bases per 640 at bats over the last, or 640 plate appearances over the last four seasons. So it does require him to stay healthy. But that's kind of all I think he needs to do. Yes, he needs to not strike out 34% of the time like he did last year. But we're talking about a relatively small sample size. And if he can get back to being a high strikeout guy
Starting point is 00:16:24 instead of one of the worst in baseball, there's huge potential for him, especially in a roto league. And I know you didn't want to talk about ADP, but he's free. Look, if he can steal 20 bases, that'd be great. He only stole 16 last year in 155 games. but you can't necessarily for Will Myers look at the games played. No, he was benched a lot.
Starting point is 00:16:46 Yeah, there's a lot of bench a lot. I just don't know why that would change now. I mean, because I guess why would change? The benching? Well, Hunter Renfro's gone. Framebill Reyes is gone, but now they have Tommy Fam
Starting point is 00:17:00 and now they have Trent Grisham. And like if they weren't that motivated to start Will Myers last year and his skills seem to get worse, I just don't, I don't know why. that's going to change now. Okay. Chris, do you think he will
Starting point is 00:17:14 bounce back to relative greatness? Part of my case for him would be, and we'll find out in about 24 hours maybe whether it worked, but would be getting traded to Boston. If he gets traded to Boston, as has been rumored as part of San Diego's offer, four mooky bets, if that happens, now all of a sudden, this is a guy who's been really harmful
Starting point is 00:17:36 in batting average gets to land in a place that really boosts batting average. And I would think, I mean, there's no guarantee, but I would think their outfield is a little less crowded than San Diego's. Okay. My first player is Paul Goldschmidt. 32 years old was the number 12 first baseman in both points and Roto last year. If you take away the guys who were like, say, second base eligible, then you're talking about number eight, number nine first baseman in fantasy last year. Still not great. But look, you can make a pretty good.
Starting point is 00:18:10 easy case for him. Basically it was just batting average. He hit 34 home runs. He had 97 RBIs. He had 97 runs. We know he's not going to steal anymore. But he batted 260. Paul Goldschmidt usually bats about
Starting point is 00:18:22 290 or so. Earlier in his career, he was over 300. 2018. Goldschmidt was a V number 2 first baseman, I believe, in points leagues.
Starting point is 00:18:35 Where are we here? Paul, yeah. 18? 2018. Yeah. Okay, thank. Yeah. at number two first baseman.
Starting point is 00:18:41 2017, he was the top two. He was second in points, first in Roto. He's basically top one or two every single year before last year. And it wasn't the ballpark. It's not like his home road splits were so bad. He was better at home than he was on the road. So look, he got off so bad start,
Starting point is 00:18:58 about a 246 in his first 82 games. Then he had a 908 OPS in his last 79 games. If he has a 908 OPS and, you know, going forward, which he could do, then because he's not going to, a steal a ton of base is not like he's going to be a first round pick, but that could be a guy who's like a second or third round pick type of value. There's no reason why Paul Goldsman cannot get back to greatness,
Starting point is 00:19:18 and I actually believe that. Well, he's 32. Yeah, that's okay. The strike rate has, it wasn't as bad last year as it was the year before, but it's definitely gone in the wrong direction as he's gotten older. He also walked less last season and had the worst ISO of his career since 2016, and second worst since 2012. Okay. All right. All right. Fair enough. Go on.
Starting point is 00:19:45 And I just think if you take it in totality, if you look at everything that he did, it's indicative of a declining skill set. And the increased aggressiveness to me could possibly indicate that he kind of has to cheat a little more, that he can't get by on bat speed alone. And so that will make him more prone to strikeouts. And it may not lead to you know, he was like a plus power guy last year, but not nearly to the extent he had been once you account for the fact that everybody hits for power now. Scott, how do you feel about Goldsmith? And also remember, like three or four years ago, he had a season where the home runs are way down. He had like 25 home runs. And that just turned out to be an anomaly. It came way back up. Yeah, now he's he's on my bust list. I can see things going very wrong for him. I don't like the way things have been trending, particularly the plate discipline.
Starting point is 00:20:40 If you break down the plate discipline by things like first pitch strike and chase rate and swinging strike rate, like they're all pretty much the worst they have ever been for him, which would kind of speak to what Chris was saying about how he's having to cheat a little more. And I think I don't know how gradual or steep the decline is going to be, but I think he's definitely on the downslope here. It's now 32 years old. Okay. Matt Olson or Paul Goldschmidt, they're going back to back according to fantasy pros. Matt Olson.
Starting point is 00:21:17 I think I'd still rather have Goldschmidt. Okay. And that is a sixth round pick in a 12-team league, middle of the sixth round. Scott, round two, go for it. All right, let's talk about Edwin Diaz. Case for Edwin Diaz, of course, is that this time a year ago, he was the number one closer being drafted, and for good reason he was coming off just one of the dominant closer seasons of all time for the Mariners.
Starting point is 00:21:45 He gets traded to the Mets and things spiral out of control as they have a way of doing with Mets. But, I mean, the strikeout rate was pretty much the same as that 2018 season in terms of like X-FIP, you know, 307 X-FIP, So it would seem like he pitched better than he deserved in terms of ERA result there, just by that number.
Starting point is 00:22:17 ZRA was $5.59. He showed a lot. He showed that he has good stuff still. And just for one reason or another, the results were pretty abysmal. I think there's a great case for it. He had a bad worse year in 2017 and bounced back beautifully in 2018. and he struggled with his slider just could not get that going.
Starting point is 00:22:40 If that pitch gets back to where it had been, I don't see a reason why he can't be the best reliever in baseball again. I do think there's a good chance for a return to greatness. Chris, for Diaz. I love it. I think, like, I've drafted Diaz a couple of times. I think most recently it was like 107th overall, and I went back to back with him and Craig Kimbril.
Starting point is 00:23:01 Another guy who I think has a good chance to bounce back to greatness. I think, you know, Kimberl has a better excuse for why his 2019 wasn't good, but Diaz, it was basically just home runs. And yeah, he gave up a lot of them 15 and like 58 innings or something like that. But this is the thing with relief pitchers. It was 58 innings. That's fewer than Tyler Glass now. I think it was 58.
Starting point is 00:23:27 Correct me if I'm wrong. But he threw... It was 58. I wrote about him today. So that's how I knew that. He threw fewer innings than Tyler Glass now last year. I believe. He threw fewer innings than Frankie Montas by about 30. And Frankie Montas was suspended for half the season. So, you know, we talk about relievers and we talk about the year that the guy had,
Starting point is 00:23:47 but that year is like a month and a half for a starting pitcher. And we know better than to say one way or the other, whether a starting pitcher fundamentally changed who they are based on a month and a half. And so I think we have to apply that same logic to relief pitchers. It's really hard, but it's probably the smart way to go about it. Scott, did you believe what you were saying about him bouncing back to greatness? That's a tough one. I rank him kind of straddling the fence there.
Starting point is 00:24:18 I don't think I'm going to have many shares in him, so I guess that means I don't believe. But I think if there's... I think the relief pitcher pool this year makes it easy enough to buy into him and is going great, and if it doesn't work out, well, you know, at least a third, if not half of the closers drafted, probably aren't going to work out.
Starting point is 00:24:40 At least this one has significant potential. I do worry that there's already a ready-made replacement there. Seth Lugo is getting saves for the Mets down the stretch, and he would make a fine closer. Obviously not D.S. is upside. And Dylan Batances, ladies and gentlemen. Yeah, well, he has a lot to prove. But yeah, he's there too. And it seemed like he really struggled to find the grip on that slider with the seams being lower than in past years.
Starting point is 00:25:09 And that's the eternal question for hitters, right? It affects certain pitchers too. And it sounded like based on kind of the anecdotal reports going around that that's kind of what was happening for him. Although, I mean, his slider still had a great swinging strike rate. It was definitely lower. But it's not like it was a useless pitch for him. Okay, he's going 12th overall at closer, but if you take out the starting pitchers,
Starting point is 00:25:34 Edwin Diaz is actually the ninth closer. Sorry, take out the starting pitchers who are RP eligible. He's the number nine reliever off the board. I shouldn't have said closers. I should have said relievers. So that's Glass now. Woodruff and Carrasco, take them out. Diaz is number nine.
Starting point is 00:25:49 Right behind Taylor Rogers for the twins. And just look at Taylor Rogers' stat page. It's kind of hard not to buy into what this guy does. So real quick to finish it up, Taylor Rogers or Edwin Diaz? Edwin Diaz. I rank Rogers ahead. Rogers, I think, is the last of my closers who seems to have a secure job and shows no obvious reason for concern.
Starting point is 00:26:16 And then you get into Edwin Diaz, who is the top one, who does have reason for concern. Okay, Scott, why don't we go back-to-back Scott White's here, and let's go to Craig Kimbril? Yeah, so Chris says he has more of an excuse, and I guess that's true. I mean, obviously it was a hurried tune-up after signing that mid-year deal, although point out that Dallas Keiko seemed to be typical Dallas Keiko after signing a deal at the same time. Dallas Keiko had a much longer minor league like rehab slash whatever you want to call it, didn't he?
Starting point is 00:26:52 Kimbril basically got through a ride just made one start. I think he just made one. I could be wrong about that, but Adam, if you want to check that out. I'm on it. I think I go, anyway, I don't understand why these guys, because this happened with Greg Holland, too, and maybe that backs up Kimbril's case, but I don't understand why these guys can't just be pitching while they're waiting to sign.
Starting point is 00:27:13 I don't know. Maybe I'm oversimplifying. Well, they are. They are, but it's different. I don't know if this matters to you, but I spoke to Melvin Gordon. He was on our set for HQ last week. at Super Bowl Radio Row.
Starting point is 00:27:27 And I asked him, like, why is it hard to just get back in there? And I know it's different. It's like I didn't have the preseason games and the timing with the offensive line and that stuff. So I just think from a general standpoint, playing in a competitive game and a competitive environment just can't be duplicated. So I could buy that being an issue. I just wanted to mention that I spoke to Melvin Gordon, never do. Yeah, you big-timed us last week.
Starting point is 00:27:53 You didn't show up because you were hob-nob. with Emmett Smith and Dan Marino and Melton Gordon. Do you want to hear a great Dave Burrito story? You're too good for us. Actually, I won't tell the Dan Barreto story. It's really not a very good story. Dallas Keiko made his first start on June 21st, and Craig Kimbril on June 27th was his first appearance.
Starting point is 00:28:13 I don't remember. Kykel made two minor league appearances. You could look up how many minor league appearances he made. Oh, I should have done that. I should have done that. That's what we were asking. Well, I thought they signed right around the same time. So I was just, okay, Scott, Craig Kimbril, why is he going to bounce back?
Starting point is 00:28:31 Dallas Keikle made two minor league rehab starts. That's what Chris just said, yeah. Both seven innings long. Anyway, okay, so I mean, the strongest case for Kimbril is that, okay, there's a, there's a ready-made excuse there. He's obviously Craig Kimbril, who's probably going to the Hall of Fame, he's, you know, he. Spicy. He, oh, man. I had these arguments all lined up, but now I just lost my turn of thought.
Starting point is 00:29:00 I'll give you a hint. Something about swinging strikes. No, it did not have to do with swinging strikes. X-Moba. Oh, I know what it is. The Cubs have a big financial investment in him, and they're going to give him every possible opportunity to seize and hold this role before giving in and turning to somebody else, which, is not nothing with all the uncertainty surrounding the relief pitcher position heading into the new season. Okay. So who's more likely to bounce back? The only point I want to make about Kimbrel is that, you know,
Starting point is 00:29:38 I found it really hard to believe how little interest there was in him. And it just seemed to me like people were almost predicting the beginning of the end for him. And maybe that started. There's no way he's a 653 ERA guy, which is what he was with the Cubs. But I don't know. even though the superficial numbers seem pretty good, maybe he wasn't quite the same guy toward the end of his Red Sox tenure, but just surprised me that he couldn't get anything, you know, until halfway through the season. So who's got a better chance of bouncing back, Chris?
Starting point is 00:30:11 Edwin Diaz or Craig Kimball? Edwin Diaz, for sure. He's the guy who's in the physical prime of his career. He's the guy who was mostly able, I believe, I think he did he go on the aisle at one point last year? Either way, he made it through the season. without suffering the serious injuries that Craig Kimball did. You know, Craig Kimbril did deal with knee and elbow issues last season.
Starting point is 00:30:33 So, you know, it's possible we are starting to see the beginning of the end for him. Whereas Diaz, it seems like a pretty obvious, and he talked about it openly and experimented with different grips on his slider. So I think that's basically, he just fixes the slider and he's fine. Scott, do you think Craig Kimball will bounce back? I am very nervous about Craig Kimbril. I have him ranked just behind Edwin Diaz, even though Kimbril has the clearer role to open the season. And I think between the injuries Chris was referring to,
Starting point is 00:31:11 the way his velocity has been on the decline the past couple years and his control, three of the past four years, he's had real control problems. And last year was just terrible. again, it could totally be a just a rust thing last year and maybe the elbow issue popped up at just the wrong time. That could totally be it, but there's enough of a trend there for a guy who's been around a while.
Starting point is 00:31:39 It's going to be 32 this year that I think it's reasonable to be concerned. Chris, you're up for round two. Maybe you can pick someone who was actually great because round one was Wilmire's. Oh, this is, that's... I don't know. I don't know what you mean. Give me Shakira Great, okay? That's what I mean. There's nobody who's Shakira Great. Have you ever heard Sita Vaz?
Starting point is 00:32:03 I mean, come on. Is that like sit on the vase? No, I don't know. I never heard it. Well, you won't let me have Mani Machado. You want Machado? You get a Machado. I will go with Carlos Martinez. Okay. who has been incredibly effective in the two injury marred seasons that he's had.
Starting point is 00:32:28 We haven't seen, you know, a decline in his performance while dealing with, I think was an oblique in 2018 and then a shoulder last year. He came back from both mostly looked like Carlos Martinez. Now, yes, it's mostly been in relief as opposed to being a starting pitcher. But he is going to start this season as a starter. And the plan is to keep him in the rotation. I haven't heard that there's any plans to limit his exposure at all. So, you know, Carlos Martinez was not quite an ace, but he wasn't far off.
Starting point is 00:32:59 He was a really good pitcher. You saw the last couple of seasons. He's still got it when he's on the mound. And at a huge discount this season, I'll bet on him staying healthy because it doesn't really cost me anything. Three years for Carlos Martinez, 2015 to 2017. He threw 179 and 2 thirds, 195. and a third, 205 innings. He had an ERA of 301, 304 and 364.
Starting point is 00:33:25 And unfortunately, he is a high whip guy. I mean, it's pretty damn high. You're not going to get lower than 1-2-2, it seems, for Carlos Martinez. But very effective, probably because of that whip, I'm guessing, better in points leagues. Just a guess. Yeah, he's going to have that relief pitcher, well, certainly that regard, yes. That's also a big thing for him. him and Carlos Carrasco could both be cheat codes in a point where you can put a starting
Starting point is 00:33:53 pitcher in that relief spot. And Carasco was someone that you also had on your list of can they return to greatness. I think it's a much easier case to make, right, for Carasco? It's more uncertain. Like Carlos Martinez, it's just if the shoulder holds up, I think he'll be great. With Carlos Carasco, we don't know what the lingering ramifications of the illness that he dealt with will be. We don't know how they affected his overall, you know, strength and conditioning. And we only saw him in a relief role. But yeah, I think you want to bet on these guys
Starting point is 00:34:30 who have been borderline elite pitchers in the past and, you know, just have to stay on the mound. Because every pitcher just has to stay on the mound. That's the biggest question mark, even for the great pitchers, is can they stay out there? We know these guys are good. And so it's just a question of if they can stay healthy. If Carlos Carasco and Carlos Martinez each make 25 starts, you're going to get a positive return on your investment. I think the questions are bigger for Carlos Carasco than just can he stay on the mound. Okay, hold on.
Starting point is 00:35:02 Let me just in case people don't remember. Carlos Carasco had leukemia last year. So that's why I thought he had been for three straight years among the most consistent pitchers in terms of ERA and whip and, you know, strikeouts kept going up. I mean, I kind of felt like we knew exactly who Carlos Carrasco was. That's why, in my mind, he's an easy bounce-back candidate, but tell me why you think it's more difficult than that, Scott. I mean, this is obviously a very serious situation he's coming back from. And he did return in September, and the velocity seemed fine.
Starting point is 00:35:39 Granted, it was in a relief role. The results weren't good, but we'll give him a pass for that, too. It's even more than the, can he stay on the mound question, even more than the effectiveness question for me is the endurance question. Because if, like, we just don't know if he's going to have that same ability to get through a lineup, you know, get into it for a third time. And if he's more of like a guy who's getting pulled before six innings every start, I mean, maybe he moves into more of a swing man role.
Starting point is 00:36:09 Maybe he becomes like a Ross Stripling type who has similar ratios to Carasco, but obviously not near the same workload. And obviously, even at his discounted rate, that wouldn't be a good enough return on investment if that happens. I mean, the only example, and I'm sure every case is different, the only example of a pitcher who came back that I could think of from something like this was Jamison Tyone, right?
Starting point is 00:36:39 Yeah, and it's a different illness, you know, a different type of cancer. So it's none of us are doctors. It's really difficult to talk about. You know, and it it sort of, you know, highlights the absurdity of what we're doing in this instance because it's so much bigger than whether he'll be a good fantasy asset, but it is what we have to discuss. And it is an unknown.
Starting point is 00:37:04 But I would counter that I'm, it's not a significantly bigger unknown to me than whether Tyler Glassnow can pitch six innings consistently or throw 100 pitches consistently. You know, like that's sort of, it gets to a bit of a difference in philosophy on pitching where I just, you know, I think Scott and I talked about this on a podcast last week where I tend to just assume there's a blanket uncertainty which pretty much with pretty much everyone. And so that that papers over some of the, that lowers my concern level for some guys like a Carlos Carrasco or Carlos Martinez, especially when the price is so much cheaper. Okay.
Starting point is 00:37:45 Yeah. I mean, there's a blanket level concern for everybody. And that same concern still exists for somebody like Carasco, and now there's just a new concern added on. Like, that doesn't... Right, but it's being baked into his price. Maybe. I guess this gets into my thinking of the starting pitch,
Starting point is 00:38:08 the breakdown of the starting pitcher position this year, where there's basically 40 guys who are good, and he's one of the 40. But there are more risks there, so let's rank him toward the back of that 40, as opposed to, or the middle or whatever. Here are the prices for these two pitchers. Carlos Carrasco, 116th.
Starting point is 00:38:28 Carlos Martinez, somewhere around 180th. 185. 185. So what's a better value, Scott? 115th for Carasco or 185th for Martinez? I'll say Carasco. I mean, yeah, I'd rather have Carasco there. Sure. Okay. All right, let's do one more round for everybody. I only did one. I guess I'll do two more rounds. Corey Kluber, not hard to make a case for him. So, 2018, he was the number three pitcher in points, number six in Roto.
Starting point is 00:39:06 In 2017, he was the number one pitcher in both formats. He had a 225 ERA that year, 265 strikeouts, and 203 and two-thirds. He was amazing. 2018, a 289 ERA, and he threw 215 innings and had a 0.99 whip. So, Cluber was a stud. I was nervous about him last year because the inning's starting to get up there a little bit. You know, he's not young. He's going to be 34 years old in April this year, so this time.
Starting point is 00:39:36 last year. We're talking about a 33-year-old pitcher on opening day. And, you know, last 19 games of 2018, he had a 367 ERA. So I was nervous about him, but obviously there's a big discount now, and he only made, I think, seven starts last year. So, again, it's not a difficult case to make. It stinks that he's not on Cleveland anymore. Klob is on the Rangers, and he's been much better at home than on the road. But, dude, the guy won the Say Young two years ago, or I guess three years ago,
Starting point is 00:40:06 now and two seasons ago he was a top six pitcher, top three in points. So that's my case for Cory Klobber Scott. Yeah, he could totally be an ace this year. I have him ranked, what do I have him ranked? I have him ranked 30th. So I have him just behind James Paxton, who could be an ace this year. I haven't just, ahead of that is Jose Barrios, who could be an ace this year. Head of that is Mike Soroka, who, probably doesn't have as much upside, but I think it's much safer. Out of that, Sunny Gray,
Starting point is 00:40:42 Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Bauer. Like, you see what I'm saying? Like, all of these guys have that kind of high-end potential, and it just becomes a question of what you consider the riskiest. Is it a guy coming off a lost season who's in his mid-30s and who was showing some slight skills regression before that injury? Or is it,
Starting point is 00:41:06 somebody who's less proven but has obviously shown that kind of potential in the past as well and I would I think that the risk factors become a little higher for Kluber there but I certainly recognize the potential that he could bounce back and have a huge year I would be fine with him as my number three starter I just don't think I'd be willing to roll the dice on him being any more than that I don't really like him do quite honest I'm alone then good good I like it
Starting point is 00:41:36 Yeah, well, the home road thing does kind of factor in, though, because his road ERA, the last five seasons, not including last year, 249, which is great, 415, 303, 283, and 380. So it's great three of the last four years, but it was consistently better at home. So if he's getting worse, you know, I just don't like him going to Texas and getting out of the AL Central, which was just a dream come true last year. By the way, last thing I'll let Chris talk after this. It's not like Kluber was affected by his forearm injury last year. He was getting shelled and then he got hit on the arm. He got a broken forearm. So it's not like he was pitching through an injury last year.
Starting point is 00:42:12 He just was pitching like crap and then he broke his arm. All right, Chris, why are you the high guy on Kluber? I will point out two things. One, 2017. On May 2nd, he made a start against Detroit that did not go well. And he went on the IL shortly after. He had a 506 ERA after the first six starts. So one fewer start, I think it was roughly the same number.
Starting point is 00:42:35 of innings. His control in those 30-something innings wasn't as good. He came back and had literally the best season of his career and one of the best pitching seasons of the last 20 years and won Syung. He had a 225 ERA for the full season with an 0869 whip. He was incredibly good. Now, there were, there are signs of decline, but we're talking about a tiny sample. sample size, 35 and two-thirds innings. That's not even an, and Edwin Diaz. No, I'm talking about the year before to 2018. Sure, but that was also his third best ERA ever and led the majors in innings pitched. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the American League. He was, yeah, he wasn't as good as 2017,
Starting point is 00:43:28 but he was still clearly, you know, maybe you needed a second hand to count the number of pitchers who were better than him, but you didn't need too many fingers on that secondhand to get to Cory Klobber. And so it's possible that he's just done. It's possible that we saw the start of the decline, and it was just that line drive that kept us from being able to say for certain that Cory Klobber is done as an ace. And we do have to take into account. He is pitching in Texas, and while it is a new park, and they will have a retractable roof, so it's, it's uncertain. And I would guess the roof will probably be close most more often than not, especially in the summer. We don't know what the impact of that park is, but historically, Arlington has been a very
Starting point is 00:44:17 homer happy place to play baseball. It's incredibly warm in the summer. It's not particularly humid. So there's just not a lot of drag on the ball. If I understand the science correctly, and I think I do, it seems like a good place to hit. So all of those factors are working against him, but you know, you mentioned the guys that you have ahead of him, and in ADP, it's very similar. Jose Barrios, Trevor Bauer, you Darvish, Tyler Glass now. Yeah, I didn't even get as high up as that, yeah. Most of those guys, James Paxson as well, we've never seen an Ace season from them. We think that can do it, but we know Cory Klooper can.
Starting point is 00:44:55 We know Corey Klooper can check off every box that you want from an ace, not just the ability to limit runs, not just the ability to put up a good whip, but the ability to rack up a ton of strikeouts and pitch a ton of innings. And we just, none of those guys, I would say even you, Darvish, hasn't necessarily shown that ability. I guess
Starting point is 00:45:15 Trevor Bauer did once. It's been a few years since Darvish's Yeah. Taking on that kind of workload. But, you know, I've also pointed out differences, too. There's start for start, how
Starting point is 00:45:31 deep do they go into games and then there's obviously the overall innings total and start for start matters more to me than the overall innings total obviously if you can do both like gloober has done consistently that's great i think the the comment i would seize on that you made is there's a chance he's just done and i i think i'm a little more wary of investing heavily in him knowing that there's that chance but my approach to pitching this year is basically draft four guys who have the potential to be your number one, I would consider Kluber one of those four guys. If I drafted it,
Starting point is 00:46:05 I'd be fine taking him as one of those four guys. So it's not like I'm discounting the potential here. I'm just being a little, a little more cautious than it sounds like you're going to be. And the only time I've drafted him was like in the 70 to 80 range in the FSGA draft. And it was after I had Luis Severino, Noah Cindergarde. There's a lot of upside in that pitching staff, it's terrifyingly unsafe. But I liked being able to get Cluber at that price as my ostensible number three. Last round.
Starting point is 00:46:40 And let's go to Scott first. Scott, give me the last guy you want to talk about. Make a case for a return to greatness. All right. Let's make a case for the return to greatness for Travis Shaw. Yeah. Now, as I understand it, Travis Shaw made a mechanical adjustment last spring that...
Starting point is 00:47:05 Did strike out? He was like, hey, I'm just going to hit less. He was so bad. Holy cow, is he bad? That's the effect it had. I mean, it started in spring training. The plate discipline was just terrible. I think he had like 30 strikeouts to no walks last spring.
Starting point is 00:47:23 I may be exaggerating slightly, but it was really that bad. for a guy who'd been a good plate discipline guy. And then it just never got that much better during the regular season. He went down to the miners for a stretch and hit the crap out of the ball there, who wasn't hitting the crap out of the ball at AAA, right? But then his return trip to the majors went just as poorly, and he just never got off the ground. It ended up being just a bench piece for the Brewers while Kestan Hira came up
Starting point is 00:47:48 and obviously did big things. Now Shaw gets a chance again with the Blue Jays. He's penciled in to be the every day. day first baseman. So Darylis giving him a chance to recapture his form and the cost is nothing for a guy who we were all drafting in the top
Starting point is 00:48:06 100 last year, right? So that would be the case for him. And he's had I think it was 2000, let me just take a look. 17? Yeah, his first season with Milwaukee. 273, 31 homers, 1001 RBIs. And he got hurt late
Starting point is 00:48:22 in the year, but he was so, so good before that injury. He was kind of a star before that injury. So I thought he might be able to pick that up into 2018. 2018 was disappointing, even though he had 32 home runs. He had bad at just 241. So, yeah, I mean, there's a case. I really went with guys who were studs.
Starting point is 00:48:43 MVP, Syung. You guys were like, hey, how about guys who've been, like, very good? But that would be Shaw's category. But sure, he could be very good. again. Okay. Sorry, I didn't mean to criticize you too harshly there. Chris, who's your last player? Trevor Bauer. And, and, and, and, let's talk, he was a stud. He was. Yeah. 2018, he was an incredible pitcher. You could argue he was the best pitcher in baseball in 2018. Trevor Bauer would certainly make that argument, uh, if you ever asked him. Um,
Starting point is 00:49:21 he was not nearly as good. The control regressed. His, his secondary pitches weren't nearly as effective as the year before. And he really struggled upon getting to Cincinnati, which, as you all know, is where he will be pitching this season. It's a tough place to pitch. It's an okay division, but Cincinnati is a band shell. But I would just point out, he struck out 253 batters last season. He threw 213 innings.
Starting point is 00:49:51 He's basically had no trouble making his starts. So when you talk about the ability to rack up innings as a prerequisite for an ace, he scratches that box. He scratches the box. Scratch the box is the right term. That feels weird. He checks the box. Check the box for the ability to throw strikeouts,
Starting point is 00:50:10 which is basically a shorthand for potential when we talk about starting pitchers. Can you be an ace? Well, if you can get 253 strikeouts in a season, you can probably be an ace. He's got to fix something. He's got to keep the ball in the yard. He's got to get the walks down a little bit. But we've seen this guy be an ace. He's not being drafted as one right now.
Starting point is 00:50:32 And, you know, we know there one thing you cannot say about Trevor Bauer. He's not, you can't say he's not going to put in the work to try to get better. Whether it will actually work. Well, 2019 showed us that it's not always a guarantee. Hard work doesn't always pay off kids. but let's not fall for recency bias. We filed for recency bias with Trevor Bauer. Last season, I was drafting him as a top five starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:51:00 Let's not go too far in the opposite direction. You know, he's not just the guy he was in 2019. He's not just the guy he was in 2018. If he's somewhere in the middle, that's still a pretty good pitcher. I believe Terry Francona really was irresponsible in the way he used Trevor Bauer. just he would not be pitching well and Francona would just let him go and go and go and go and he would throw so many pitches and I'm sorry
Starting point is 00:51:25 I know he's kind of a freak but not but nobody's invincible yeah and that really bothered me Scott how do you feel about the bounce back possibility for Bauer I like the bounce back possibility for Bauer I do have him I think like seven spots ahead of Klober in his case
Starting point is 00:51:44 like it's very it's plain for me to see what happened to Trevor Bauer. The curve ball that he really started emphasizing I think the year before his near-science season in 2017, it helped elevate his ground ball rate
Starting point is 00:52:01 to a point that he wasn't getting crushed by home runs. And then he just stopped throwing it so much last year and the fly ball rate went up. The home run rate went way, way up. It became especially bad when he went to Cincinnati. If I can see it, if it's plain for me to see, then I got to feel like he could see it too. and is going to recognize that's a change he needs to make.
Starting point is 00:52:20 Maybe there was a underlying reason why he wasn't throwing the curveball as much that I can't speak to. But to me, it adds up what went wrong for him and how he can get it right again. If I can change and you can change, then everybody can change. Last guy for me, does anybody know that movie? You know, it seems really familiar.
Starting point is 00:52:44 It's Rocky 4. Come on. Never even seen it. Who's never seen it? I have. I've only seen Rocky One. Well, they all get worse from there, but Rocky Four... It's the best Rocky movie?
Starting point is 00:52:56 Rocky Four is like the dumb fun, can't take my eyes off of it movie. It's not that good, but it's the most watchable, for sure. It's so fun. Anyway, my last guy for me, should we go with Stanton or David Price?
Starting point is 00:53:16 We didn't do Machado. I'll say Machado for another show. I'll just say, David Price was pretty good last year. He was. Until he needed surgery. So we don't even need to have that argument. Okay. Well, he wasn't that good because his first 17 starts, he had a 316 ERA and a ton of
Starting point is 00:53:35 strikeouts and a 115 whip, but he only had eight quality starts in those 17. He average five and a third. That's David Price. John Carlos Stanton, it's the easiest case to make. he's a big strong dude who's going to play in arguably the best lineup in baseball. He won the MVP in 2017. In 2018, John Carlos Stanton was a top 10 outfielder.
Starting point is 00:53:58 I mean, he was a top 22 hitter, 22 in points, 16th in Roto, and that was while he played the last month of the season hurt and had a 700 OPS in his last 31 games. So, and that was also with him struggling a lot at home, which could have been a mental thing in his first season with the Yankees, certainly not a ballpark thing. So it's a really easy case to make for Stanton. He's going in the 60s.
Starting point is 00:54:19 So he's going 601st overall. It's the end of round 5, beginning of round 6th, 6. There's no doubt in my mind. And I mean this. There's no doubt that John Carlos Stanton has 45 home run and like 230 RBI plus run potential. He does. I mean. Okay.
Starting point is 00:54:39 Well, you hadn't finished the sentence. Oh, the pluses. Chuckling too soon. I thought you were exaggerating the RBI. I don't know a guy who has more upside that goes later than John Carlos Stanton, you know? Like he could be, he could be that great again. I just, I don't think it's necessarily going to happen, but he could. Can I do the official Yankee fan response?
Starting point is 00:55:02 Yeah, sure. Hey, Mike. First time, long time. I want to talk about this Mike Stanton guy. This guy's not a true Yankee. He's not clutch. He gets up there. He swings at everything.
Starting point is 00:55:13 And he doesn't know what he's doing. He's a bum. Get him out of here. Go yanks. All right. Good call. Good call. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:55:22 Thank you. Yeah. Scott, we got Scott White on the line. Scott, what do you think about that bum, Stanton? It's always hurt.
Starting point is 00:55:31 Actually what Scott believes. I do have him on my bust list, and Chris and I got pretty deep into why that is. It's more an argument for the floor. than against the ceiling because I totally get what you're saying. I just think there's enough reason to be concerned that the decline could be nearing and it could be steep and especially given how much time he's missed over his career. I would be reluctant.
Starting point is 00:56:06 I still think the price is a little too high for me to roll the dice on that, especially given the caliber of player that's still available in that fifth round range of the draft. Okay. I'm looking to fill out my pitching staff at that point rather than trust that everything's going to go fine for Stanton this year. It is a little earlier than I thought it might be, but the point I would make, if hitting is so plentiful, especially if you're playing in a three outfielder league
Starting point is 00:56:36 or a league with a deep waiver wire, John Carlos Stanton is exactly the type of player you should be gambling on. Because if he's a bust, you can get by losing your fifth or your sixth round pick being a bust. You can get by. It's no big deal. So, you know. You can survive that. Sure.
Starting point is 00:56:51 Yeah, yeah. So I'd take chance there. Like, okay, for example, Scott, he's not having Stanton either. He's going, but not, I mean, he's been MVP as recently as two seasons ago. Or is it three seasons ago? So he's going three spots ahead of Paul Goldschmidt. You know, they're back to back in terms of- Right. I don't like Paul Goldschmidt either.
Starting point is 00:57:11 That's probably. not who I'd take instead. Yeah. It's a good spot for pitchers. You're right in that respect. It's tough range for hitters, though. If you look at, you know, especially outfield, let's look at between Stanton at 61 overall in ADP
Starting point is 00:57:25 and then the next two rounds. Elohimenez, Victor Robles, Horace Saler, Tommy Pham. There's a lot of risk in that range, period. I don't think any of those guys comes with no risk. And I think Stanton has, I know, Scott, you might disagree with this, but I think Stanton has more upside than any of those guys. I know you really like Jorge Salair.
Starting point is 00:57:45 Stan has more ups. I think Soler's upside is comparable, but obviously Stanton seems like the safer, the better bet to reach is upside than Soler does. I don't think the upside is that comparable. I mean, Stanton plays in a Little League ballpark on the best offense in baseball. You realize Saler hit 48 home runs last year, right?
Starting point is 00:58:09 Did you see his second half numbers? I mean, it was MVP level, Stan, basically who he was in the second half. But Stanton had 59 home runs and had 255 RBI and runs combined in Miami. The Marlins. We all know he's, I think we're all in agreement. He's not going to be that guy again. That guy struck out at a much lower rate that he's still potential to do, including since in his one full year in New York. I don't think Jorge Soler is going to be the guy he was last year, is my thing.
Starting point is 00:58:40 Right, 48 home runs a ton. I just, I don't know. The batted ball profile supports it, and he became a good contact. Who hits the ball harder than Stanton? Judge? Who hits the ball harder than Stanton, his teammate? Well, Solair's in the same range as Stan, I'm saying. You really think Sir Lair has more upside than Stanton?
Starting point is 00:59:01 That's not what I said. I think the upside's comparable. I think Stanton has a higher probability chance of meeting that upside. I also think Stanton has a higher probability of chance of just bottoming out. Because of bad performance? Because of injury? I guess if you're factoring it, you'd have to factor in the injury concern for me to say that. It's not like he's been a bad player at all.
Starting point is 00:59:28 I mean, he hit 288 with three home runs and 18 games. 12 walks, 24 strikeouts. And like I said, top 10 outfielder in 2018. So I'm not really seeing a ton of performance decline. He is striking out a ton like he did. That one year where he didn't strike out nearly as much, that's not happening, obviously.
Starting point is 00:59:45 But he's still hitting. That was the MDP year. Yeah, that was 2017. Okay, did you guys read emails in your last show? We did get to some emails on the last show. Yeah, we got like seven. Okay, that's good, because we're sort of, we're at an hour already.
Starting point is 00:59:58 I'll speed through some emails. Here we go. Save regulators for a later show. Emails. Not later anything. 10.40 p.m. What the head? happened to Scooter Jeanette. The dude was an
Starting point is 01:00:11 All-Star in 2018. Injury derailed this season. He got traded the Giants, played three weeks, was released. Now I haven't even heard Scooter Jeanette's name. Is he still playing? Is he on a team? Did he ever even exist to begin with, or did I just imagine him? That's pretty damning all the
Starting point is 01:00:27 details you laid out there. I am not putting any hopes out there for Scooter Jeanette this year. I think the last I saw the Cubs were thinking about signing him. But I don't, that might be a figment of my imagination. Ryan Joseph Scooter Genet is an American professional second baseman who is currently a free agent.
Starting point is 01:00:49 That's according to Wikipedia. From Jose, I need to choose my three keepers. I already have Severino and Soto. So who's my last one? Zach Gallin, Gavin Lux, De Nelson Lemette, or Nick Senzel? Who was before Gallin? I could not keep up with that either? Nobody.
Starting point is 01:01:09 Severino and Soto are being kept. The four options for the last pick are Gallin, Lux, Lament, and Senzel. Gallin, Gallin, yeah. From Patrick, dear Brown, only in Bluth. Busters. Buster.
Starting point is 01:01:22 I will frame my self-serving keeper question to benefit others as to increase the chance of being aired. When I think of keeping young, hopefully will be studs in a keeper league, am I wrong to favor hitters over pitchers in a 12-team categories league? I ask, as I'm trying to,
Starting point is 01:01:40 to decide which two of the below three keepers I want to hold on to with their round in parentheses. If I keep two with the same round, I lose the previous round. So here are my choices. Kyle Tucker 24th, Zach Gowan 24th, Brandon Woodruff, 24th. So he needs two of those three. So that's tough because generally speaking, I do think, and this is something that I've done in the prospect and dynasty drafts that we've done so far, is I think you should value hitters over pitchers, especially when it comes to prospects. especially when it comes to young guys. But in this case, Kyle Tucker is much less proven
Starting point is 01:02:16 than Zach Allen and Brandon Woodruff. So that's, you know, all other things being equal, I want to pick the hitter. All other things are not being equal here. So I think I would go with Gallen and Woodruff. You have a better chance of being able to get Kyle Tucker back at a reasonable price as well. Scott, I'll give you the next one from Jeff in Iowa.
Starting point is 01:02:35 He says, for the life of me, I cannot figure out how to view Starling Marte. Do I avoid him because he's playing in a new stadium and coming off career? Do I target him because he's playing in a better ballpark, which might mean he puts even better numbers up? I think if you play in a standard 5-5-5 league, a league where steals take on a high priority, that's why you target him.
Starting point is 01:03:01 There's just so few players, early rounds or otherwise, who are going to help you in that category while not bearing you in anything else. So I don't even really care about the venue change in that respect. If it's not that if it's a points league or some other format that doesn't highly reward steals, I mean, I think somebody else is going to reach for him earlier than I would just because he is coming off a career season and now there's some momentum from the trade. So I guess I would avoid him in that scenario, but presuming you're playing in traditional five-by-five league,
Starting point is 01:03:37 do you want steals there or not? That's really all it comes down to for me. Last email from Jeremy. Hey, Maddox, Glaven, Avery, and Smoltz. Those are Busters. I have the seventh pick in a traditional head-to-head categories league. Twelve teams.
Starting point is 01:03:52 Would you take Juan Soto, Trey Turner, Jacob de Grom, Garrett Cole, Nolan Aronado, or Trevor Story? I would take... Categories League, seventh pick. You got to take...
Starting point is 01:04:07 My rankings would say Cole. I think Chris would say story here, right? I was thinking Cole, but... Oh, okay. I don't let me answer for you. Yeah, I mean, I was answering for the community. I might take story. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 01:04:23 Cool. Good show, guys. Thank you very much. Well, it's been fun. Glad to be back. We got three more episodes coming this week. Tuesday night, Wednesday afternoon, Friday afternoon. Got some drafts that we'll be doing.
Starting point is 01:04:36 We'll be talking about. and your emails at Fantasy Baseball at TBSI.com for Scott and Chris, I'm Adam. See you later.

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