Fantasy Baseball Today - Rich Hill Goes Off! Worryometer Wednesday & Civale Trade Value (5/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 26, 2021

What is up with baseball players getting hurt in the weirdest ways!? Zach Plesac was the latest victim. Rich Hill is awesome (4:06)! Josh Bell looks like he's coming around. ... News and notes (13:30)! Bryce Harper was placed on the IL, Adalberto Mondesi and Jacob deGrom both returned, and Corey Kluber left with shoulder tightness. ... Let's fire up the worryometer for players struggling the most like Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez, Zack Greinke and others (18:07). ... We had lots of home runs on Tuesday but maybe none more interesting than a double dong from Joc Pederson (38:45). ... What is Aaron Civale's trade value right now (42:10)? Should you try and move Joe Musgrove? ... We wrap up with waiver wire SP, bullpen updates, and streamers (51:00)! ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Center field. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. What's going on, everybody, and welcome into fantasy baseball today on Wednesday. May 26th, Frank Stanfield, joined by Scott White, and we've got a busy one for. you, Rich Hill. The guy is just phenomenal. We'll get it right here at the top. Wariometer, two months in, this is usually the time where Scott says, all right, we've got some data. Now it's time to make some decisions. So we will have some decisions for you later on in the podcast. Tuesday recap, fantasy justice for all. But first, Scott, what is up with baseball players always suffering the weirdest injuries? I get it. They're human. They're like anybody else.

but I feel like more than any other sport, you just hear the wildest stuff all the time. I think Jabba Chamberlain broke his foot on a trampoline once. Last year, Zach Wheeler sliced his finger open. He, like, lacerated his finger because he got it caught in his pants zipper. Like, what is going on? Zach, please. John Smoltz, John Smoltz burnt his stomach, ironing a shirt that he was wearing.

I remember somebody, too. like sneeze too hard. Oh my gosh. I think it was like Sammy Sosa. I can't remember exactly who. It may not have been Sammy Sosa, but it was somebody. All right. So in case you didn't hear,

Zach Plesack fractured his thumb, his pitching thumb on his right hand, aggressively putting his shirt on, and he hit it on a chair that was next to his locker, apparently. So it was just the way that it was free. It was taking his shirt off.

Taking his shirt off. It wasn't putting his shirt, aggressively taking his shirt, off. It's just as opposed to I don't know passively taking his shirt off the way you would think anybody

would normally take their shirt off I don't know there was I saw a line from I think it was the twins broadcast I don't think I've aggressively undressed in years and I think that's I think that's probably the right

the right angle for a joke for this but anyway Now I want to research the Twins broadcast team. For what it's worth, I think it was after a game, right? It wasn't after or before something else. But anyway, yeah, no, that's, I don't know. I don't know what to do other than laugh at it.

I mean, I'm kind of relieved that I don't have to keep putting SACP Plisac in my lineup because he wasn't, it's unclear whether he was more helpful than hurtful. Yeah, it has been an inconsistent. consistent year, no doubt about it, for Zach, Plesack, pitching a lot to contact. I haven't really seen a time table for something like this, so I guess we'll go with the old, what is it, Scott, four to six weeks? Yeah. Every injury is four to six weeks if you don't have a timetable?

I don't know. Is it six to eight weeks? It's, it's four to six weeks. Yeah, four to six weeks. Not a non-displaced fracture, not something that's going to require surgery, four to six weeks. Jesus Lazzardo, another one. He broke his hand, slamming it down on a table losing in a video game like oh yeah how do we forget about that one that's that's a not like see that was i bought what was the the wording that was used initially he he he bumped it i think he bumped it hard like you know uh you know the kid breaks a window and he's like i barely touched it oh man it's just it's ridiculous but there you go the podcast zach please act just another

interesting baseball injury and a long list of them in the history of our great sport. Oh my goodness gracious. All right, some Tuesday standout, Scott. I know where you want to start. Hit me. Hit me, baby, one more time. Britney Spears. Richard.

Richel. Yeah. We got to talk about Rock and Rich again. Who had arguably the best start of his career today. He set a career high for strikeouts with 13. He set a career. career high for swinging strikes with 27. And the thing is, I mean, as good as he's been about getting strikeouts over the years,

he hasn't been a big swinging strike guy. That's not how he's gotten him. So I don't know. I was watching, I didn't actually see the game, but I was watching a clip of all 13 of a strikeouts. He looked like he was having so much fun. So much fun at age 41.

And it's been a nice, a really nice stretch here for Rich Hill, five of his past six starts, six innings or more. He allowed two earned runs in these eight endings against the Royals. So his ERA during that six start stretch actually went up because of those two earned runs allowed. In those six starts, he now has a 126 ERA, 0.79 whip and 11.1Ks per nine. And again, five of the six starts were six innings plus.

So Richel isn't just must roster at this point. I think he's verging on must start. And I know there are probably some pretty deep pitching staffs in there. there particularly in shallower leagues. I mean, I look at who's in the 60 range in my rankings. I mean, Richel's barely, I barely got him inside my top 60 after this performance. So I understand, I'm not ready to go as far as to say he's must start in all formats no matter what. But he's getting pretty close.

And he's still available in 25% of CBS Sports leagues. I'm sure he's probably available in like 60% of Yahoo leagues. So Richel, he's still a thing. He still, we shouldn't have, we shouldn't have quit on him, Frank. We shouldn't have quit on him after 2020. He let us down. Well, as one listener pointed out, just hop on a player one year after Scott's really excited about that player, right?

So you were all in on Rich Hill last year and this is a year. It just, the way these things work out for Tampa too, it's like they trade away Blake Snell. Look what Blake Snell is doing. Tony Dungy defense. They bring in Rich Hill. They reinvigorate his career. Not everything works out perfectly for, for, Tampa, but a lot of things they do are pretty well calculated and really strong moves there

from Tampa Bay. So yeah, 75% roster for Rich Hill. If he's available even in your shallower, 10 team, 8 team leagues, make sure you get him on your team, verging on a must start starting pitcher. Scott, I'll just ask the question. I don't really know that there's going to be much trade value for Rich Hill. It's the same thing that I brought up with Uli Gerell the other day, last week rather. It's, okay, sure, I guess if you can sell high, try, but I just, I can't many people interested in trading for Rich Hill right now. The reason I will bring it up is because I think it's an interesting juxtaposition to someone like Cory Klobber, who is also up there in age, has had his injury history, and as we'll talk about, he left with shoulder discomfort

on Tuesday. So, I mean, Rich Hill is over 40. Something like that can easily happen. So what do you think about trying to shop him if you can? Well, I just, you know, I get all excited about what just happen and you got to say now let's get rid of them. No, I got to ask the question. I don't think it's ever a bad idea to shop a player. Sure. That's it? I mean, no, it makes sense.

I mean, look, I don't know. What would it actually take for me to trade Rich Hill? Probably nothing that I expect to be offered. Fair enough. Yeah. Because he was just picked up. You know, I might go to the person who has the very, worst pitching staff in your league or I don't know

struggling to find a good starting pitcher and maybe see what he can part with and maybe it'll be more useful to you but yeah I don't see getting like a a haul for Hill yeah no I'm I would agree with that it's just I thought I would bring it up because kind of a similar situation to how well Corey Klober was pitching Rich Hill is 61%

rostered in Yahoo League so very widely available there as well. For me, oh my goodness gracious. Josh Bell, the guy is, he's kind of coming around. There's something happening right now at Josh Bell. Two more hits on Tuesday, another home run, and now in the month of May,

he is batting 294 with four home runs and a 25% strikeout rate. Mind you, that comes with a ground ball rate that is still over 50%. You look at his stack cast page, he's making a lot of hard contact, but a lot of it is still going into the ground. So that is an issue for him,

but I like that the strikeout rate is coming down. And also, I like the fact that this home run came off of Amir Garrett. Not that it's the hardest thing to hit a home run off of Amir Garrett this season. But Josh Bell typically struggles mightily against lefties. Even though he's a switch hitter, he's not great against left-handed pitching. He has been platooning with Ryan Zimmerman in that way for most of the season. So I think he's going to still continue to sit out here and there.

But signs of life here from Josh Bell. And I did, every time he hits a home run, I'm watching. check out the Nationals broadcast. They always play this song and I actually love it. So I think anytime Josh Bell does anything, we'll kind of bring this up right here. That's a great song. It's hilarious.

And by the famous Anita Ward. So shout out there. Scott, anything that you would like to add on Josh Bell. Look up his roster rate. He might have been dropped in some shallower leagues, but looks like he's coming around. I was surprised. I was surprised to see he's up at 89.

Okay. So people kept the faith. I'm shocked. I thought I was the only one of the. the world who was keeping the faith on John, well, maybe you too, but who was keeping the faith on Josh Bell and even I dropped him in a league or two

where I just couldn't justify the bench spot on him anymore. So, you know, maybe nobody's paying, no, then people are paying attention, obviously, Richel's up to 75% roster ship, but yeah, I guess they've kept the faith on Bell. And yeah, like you, I noticed that

the strikeouts in the last two weeks have been much lower. For pretty much the full extent of Josh Bell's career. He's been a low strikeout guy. So it's been really weird. You know, I understand you look at the, that 2019 season and it looks like the outlier in terms of overall production. But 2020 and the start of 2021, that's the outlier in terms of strikeouts. That usually hasn't been, that hasn't historically been Josh Bell's problem. So hopefully he's getting back to being good again. For sure. Yeah, I have him in probably my most important

league, NFBC main event, so I do watch him closely, and I'm rooting for him to come around because of that, and he has so far in May. So hopefully he can keep that up throughout the summer months as well. I did want to give an honorable mention here, a shout out just here at the top to Stephen Mets, who had his best start of the season at the Yankee, six and two-thirds, six hits, one run, zero walks, ten strikeouts with 16 swinging strikes on 112 pitches. They let him go in this one. He averaged a season high, 90.2 miles per hour. his slider, which typically averages around 88 miles per hour for the season. Did allow eight hard hit balls, but the, I noticed the ERA is 4.28.

That comes with a 3.44 X-FIP. So Stephen Mats is kind of an interesting pitcher. It seems like based on the stuff that he has, he should get more whiffs than he actually does. He really doesn't get that many swinging strikes or strikeouts for that matter. But he was very good on Tuesday against the Yankees. So I don't know if there's anything you want to add there, Scott, but he was awesome. two of his past three starts have been really good nine strikeouts in five innings two turns ago

and then a five run 10 hit outing in between so you got to love that kind of consistency he's actually rostered a more than 80% of leagues too I looked into him to write about him in Waverwire tonight and I can't he's too rostered yep so I mean I'd rather have Rich Hill than mats by a pretty substantial margin so maybe their roster rate

roster ship percentages need to flip-flop there. But yeah, Matt's, I don't know, he's kind of interesting. Yeah, I think he's better this year than what we've seen the past couple of seasons, but probably still someone that you just want to play the matchups with, especially when he's on the road. He was pitching in Dunedin. Now he's going to go to Buffalo where that's expected to be a hitter's park as well. So play the matchups there with Stephen Matt's, but a great start from him.

The Champions League final is set as Manchester City, take on Chelsea in the biggest soccer match of the year and the Kigalato podcast has you covered. Luis Miguel Echigare. Welcome's soccer experts. I'm sorry if I ruined your name, man. I just butcher that. Soccer experts. Every single episode to give game predictions, betting tips, players to watch,

post-match analysis, and much, much more. Find Kigalato wherever you are listening to this show. And on YouTube, too, the UCL final is here. And Kigalato has you covered. All right. and notes, a lot more injuries outside of Zach Plissack, of course. On Tuesday, Bryce Harper was finally placed on the IL

with a left forearm contusion one day after Joe Girardi said he wasn't hurt. I mean, it especially sucks that it's one day into the scoring period and the Phillies played on Monday. So you couldn't even get him out of your lineup. It's annoying. Joe Girardi said he was intentionally

withholding that information for strategic purposes. I get it. Whatever. It's fine. It's just it's not. It's not. I'm serious. That's not a joke. No, no, no. I mean, I understand why managers would do that. And they lie all the time. I mean, we see that, you know, talk about it constantly, but it just sucks.

Finally, Adelberto Mondesie was in the lineup. He returned to the Royals. He was batting seventh. He finished two for four with two doubles and two strikeouts. Jacob Grom made his return to the mound against the Rockies. Five innings, three hits, one run, zero walks with nine strikeouts, 12 swinging strikes on just 63 pitches. So they were easing him in here. Fastball velocity looked perfectly fine. He averaged 99.4 miles per hour on his fastball. We had a bunch of players leave with injury on Tuesday.

Corey Kluber, tightness in his right shoulder. Marcelo Zuna injured his left hand on a slide at third base. Nico Horner exited his game with a hamstring injury. There's not really anything we can add about the Kluber situation right now, Scott, because he's going for an MRI, but he suffered. shoulder injury last year. And I'm not just saying this because it's the Yankees, whatever. But it was an awesome story.

I mean, the guy's coming off a no-hitter and turning his career around after years of being hurt. So it just sucks to see Corey Klober go down. And I'd imagine this is probably going to require at least an IL-Sint. But that's just my speculation. Probably. It might be a, it might not be a major injury, shoulder tightness. We'll see what the MRI turns up.

It's just too early to say. But in any case, even in a best case scenario, it seems like, like it would behoove the Yankees to skip him a turn. And I looked into Davey Garcia to see how he was doing at AAA. It's real bad. He's walking a lot of guys. So I don't think that they're, even if they need someone, they'll probably just go with like bullpen games for now

until Davey Garcia gets back on track. So I don't think he's going to be an option for them, at least in the foreseeable future. Jazz Chisholm suffered a mild ankle sprain on Tuesday. Cody Bellinger has homered in two of his last three rehab games. Kyle Gibson was placed in the aisle at a nowhere. with a right groin strain, a reliever prospect, and a favorite of mine. DeMarcus Evans was recalled for the Texas Rangers.

He could be the closer of the future. It's probably not going to happen anytime soon because Ian Kennedy has been amazing, but maybe if they trade Ian Kennedy, I guess that would make sense somewhere around the trade deadline. Evans has phenomenal strikeout stuff, but he also walks everybody. So just a name to remember there, DeMarcus Evans. Noah Cinderguard was removed from Tuesday's rehab start with right elbow soreness. Well, that doesn't sound too good there for Cindergarde.

Brian Anderson. Yep. More on Cindergarde, though. He will have an MRI on that elbow, but the Mets don't seem overly concerned. That's what was put out there. It's like, how do you digest anything, right, that the Mets say?

It seemed like Carrasco was right around the corner from returning in early May. He's moved to the 60-day I-L. Now he's not back until July. It's just like, I don't know. I don't know what's going on there. I hope he's all right, because I have him stashed in a few leagues,

but yeah, it's a little scary coming back from Tommy John surgery. Brian Anderson was placed in the aisle with a left shoulder sublixation. John Bertie started at third base and is 8% rostered for those of you who need speed in deeper category leagues. Harrison Bader was placing the aisle

with a right rib hairline fracture. Kenta Maeda could miss more than the 10-day minimum on the aisle with the twins. Tyler O'Neill is expected to be activated sometime during the Cardinals' current road trip, which lasts until June 2nd. DJ Lamehue was placed on the paternity list. Luke Voight is expected to miss this weekend series

against the Tigers. He's got a baby on the way. Kyle Freeland was activated off the IL and started against the Mets. He went for, I think he had like two runs. He was fine. I don't think he's really a name to pay attention to right now. Mani Machado and Nelson Cruz

both remained out for their respective teams. Wilson Contreras was out of the lineup, but x-rays on his wrist were negative. He was hit by a Craig Kimberl. fastball while catching on Sunday. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler returned to the lineup for the twins. Michael Brentley was out due to legs soreness. All right, Scott.

It's fired up. The Worryometer. Can we drop any of these players? Probably not the first one. But we're just about two months in. And I know that normally around Memorial Day is, that's the time. That's the time when we start making some decisions here, Scott.

So let's start off with Anthony Rendon. Again, I don't think you're dropping Anthony Rendon. He went 0 for 3. again on Tuesday. He's betting 227 with a 662 OPS. The underlying numbers are very bad. He's striking out more. Still not a lot. It's 19%.

And he's hitting a lot of fly balls. So two IEL stints so far this year, Scott. Your Worryometer for Anthony Rendon. Yeah, that's the thing. I think it's just you know, kind of a, I guess, a failure to launch situation because of those two IL stints. I don't think

he's really had a chance to get in a groove yet. But we have a, obviously know how good he is, very consistent from year to year. I was updating my rankings earlier today, and I kept him ahead of... Oh, who was it? I kept him ahead of... I kept him ahead of...

Was somebody really good? Nolan Aronado, was it? I don't remember. I'm sorry. I took this angle. But yeah, no, I didn't lower him, is the point. Um, yeah, don't drop one. You kept him ahead of, it looks like... Maximilian Muncie. That's who I kept him ahead of. Max Muncie.

Yeah. All right, yeah. So look, we're not dropping Anthony Rendon. Did you give a number, Wariometer, one to ten? Two. Two on Anthony. All right, so he's potentially a bi-low candidate right now. If, uh, if you can make that happen, turn around one of these overperforming middle-aged starting pitchers and I don't know, maybe add someone,

else lower for Anthony Rendon if you could pull it off. How about E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. Heneo Swarres. He did hit his 10th home run on Tuesday, but he added three more strikeouts. He is betting at 150 with a 34% strikeout rate. The quality of contact way down for Suarez, a 187 expected betting average. That is in the bottom 3% in all of baseball. Woriometer, Scott. A. E. E. E. Hio Hineo Suarez. I will go 7. 7. 7 on the world. Wariohemiator for A. Eugenio. I actually did move him down, finally, this week.

He is now 17th at third base for me. He's behind Austin Riley. I moved Matt Chapman down, too, for what it's worth. Oh, we'll get to Chapman. Don't you work? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know.

It's just like, how long can you bat 160, you know? I don't doubt the power's there, but I don't know. Did you share these stats already? He has two hits in his past seven games. I did not, but that's pretty bad. Both of them home runs. It wouldn't surprise me if he got hot and we were all picking him back up again,

but I think in shallower leagues, like 250-ish players rostered, I think you'd probably let him go. Yeah, he's 94% rostered. I think in anything with, a corner and a middle infielder, your standard roto lineup, five outfielders utility bat,

12 teams are deeper. I think you gotta hold Suarez unless there's just someone great on your waiver wire. If Austin Riley is available, sure, I would make that swap. I would drop A. E. E. E. Hennio Suarez for him, but I don't know how realistic

that is at this point. And once you get past them, there's not a ton of waiver wire options that might be available for you. So are you really gonna drop A.U. Huyahe. Svarez for Evan Longoria or Jamer Candelario? Right. I don't know. Probably not. It just doesn't really move the needle there for me. So I'm worried about him, but again, it just depends who you could drop him for. Brandon Lau does have nine home runs, but he's also batting 204. He's doing so with a 230XBA 472 XLug. So not as bad as some of the other players we've talked about here, struggling mightily against left-handed pitching a 375 OPS in 57 plate appearances for Brendan Lau. Where are you at? Worryometer on him, Scott.

well probably only like a probably only like a five maybe because I considered him you know a step back from Suarez to begin with so that factors into the different grades there but he's he's kind of started to pick it up here over the past week or so three home runs

276 batting average over past eight games and we know that he runs really hot and really cold. So I'm expecting him to have this power surge here very soon. It might be difficult to time in terms of whether you have him in your lineup or not, but I do think it's coming. Would you drop him for someone like Gavin Lux or Thai France if they were available? No, I would not. Okay, so mostly we're holding

Bread and Lough. Yeah. Okay. How about Zach Grinke, who was up against his former team, the Dodgers, on Tuesday? He allowed four runs, over six endings, three walks, five strikeouts, only five swinging strikes on 88 pitches, and he's got a 3.970 RA,

4.00 X-FIP, so underlying numbers are kind of right in line there with Zach Rankie. And it's just, you know, in the pitching climate this season, that's just not a quality pitcher. Maybe in years past, it could have been passable, but all these pitchers are performing way above

what Grinke is doing right now. And he's got a 9.3% swinging strike rate is lowest since 2012. Scott, your Worryometer on Zach Grinke. Only like a three. I do wonder if he's declined just enough that he's going to be merely above average instead of great, but there's been no thought to me dropping him or even sitting him.

Maybe there's been some thought to sitting him at times, but not that often. I know offense has gone, has been way up. And it's basically, it's mostly normalized. The home run rate itself hasn't normalized. The home run rate is similar to 2018, which is still high for like the context of our whole lives. but low for the juiced ball era, that the home run rate has held steady from April to May. So it looks like that's just the home run rate now,

what it was in 2018, basically. But offense as a whole has looked much closer to normal in May, specifically like the Babbitt. Remember the Babbitt was crazy low in April. And we were kind of freaking out about that. But it's gone up like 13 points in May, which is a huge jump from one month to the next. And it's basically what it normally is in May.

I actually went back a few years and noticed Babbip tends to go up every month until September when it drops back down, which clearly links it to temperature, right? And May was, and this year's April this year was unseasonably cold, so maybe it makes sense that the BAPIP was outrageously low. But it hasn't been in May. And so offense as a whole has been up. I'm going to look into, I'm going to look into ERA, because I think the ERA in May is around like 420, 421, something like that. It's like going to look and see how that compares since you brought it up, since you brought it up, Frank.

Fair enough. While offense has been up in May, it has not been for this player. Matt Chapman, who was batting 211 with a 676 OPS. And part of the reason why I had him in my bus column coming into the season, Scott, is because he had hip surgery in the off season. I thought he could get off to a slow start and it would affect his overall numbers. And thus far, that's been the case. Now, you know, maybe it's taking him a couple of months to get back into form coming

off of that injury where he just kind of takes off from June throughout the rest of the season. But it hasn't been the case so far. So what do you think, Scott? Worryometer on Matt Chapman. Yeah, I will say, I'll say like a five for him too. I dragged him down my rankings along with Eugenio Swazzo. But he doesn't seem broken as intensely as Suarez does. I don't know.

I have a little more hope for Chapman. I just don't feel like I feel like I'd be avoiding starting him now if I at all could. He's 95% rostered. Similarly to Suarez, it's just not a position where there's a ton of talent available right now. But are there any leagues where you should consider dropping match at? It just depends what's out there. Is he somebody who, if you're in a league shallow enough that Austin Riley is still available, can you probably get away with dropping Chapman?

Yes, you probably can. But in most leagues, you probably can't. And for Chapman, he's got a 32% strikeout rate. Yeah, that's so high. Yeah. Last year it was high, but I think that was probably because he was playing through injury. It was 35% last year. But then, well, I mean, it was a pretty severe surgery he had.

Maybe he's not fully recovered. I thought it would impact his power more than anything else. And it has. His home run to fly ball ratio is 10%. And for his career, it's 16%. So it could kind of be... Maybe there, I might need to look at that again. Maybe I was right to move him down with Suarez.

Maybe he is as broken as Suarez. Yeah. And I think for good reason, again, because of the injury and his quality of contacts, at least according to Fangraphs, which is what I have up here, 25% hard contact rate this season for Chapman, 41% for his career. So way down compared to what we're used to seeing. Justin Turner.

So let me give you the ERA number. Sure. So it's over 420 for May. But that's season long. The last time there was an ERA as low as 420 for the Lake the league-wide ERA. It was that same year 2018. It was actually 415 for the season. Last year it was 445 in 2019,

which was the height of the juiced ball era, it was 4.51. So, yeah, I mean, an ERA around 4 is not going to be very good. If May is the standard. Now, the ERA, the league white ERA is probably going to be higher in June. It's probably going to be higher in July and August. It's probably going to go up the same way Babbitt does from month to month. So, you know, in the end, the ERA, the league white ERA might be closer to like 425 or something, but it is going to be lower than the past two years anyway.

And with the league average ERA going up, Zach Rankies might go with it. So I guess that's something. Yeah, I might. I'd bet against that. I think he gets better as opposed to worse from here, but it might. Let's hit a few more players.

Justin Turner went two for five with his eighth home run, but coming into Tuesday, he was batting 179 with a 534 OPS in May. And we did tell people, you know, the first couple of weeks of the season, try and sell high on Justin Turner because he's a little bit older, obviously. So your worryometer on him, Scott? I worry.

I don't know that I'm worried necessarily for... Yeah, I mean, clearly he was performing in an unsustainable pace early on, and I think he's... I think he's pretty fringy compared to, you know, Suarez and Chapman, we assumed we're going to be must-start players. Turner a little below that. But I have moved Suarez and Chapman behind Turner in my rest of season rankings.

Yeah, I wouldn't go out and drop Turner. I think it's just kind of, he's slowing down. He's kind of regressing closer to the mean, which is perfectly fine. He was never going to continue to bat 350 or whatever it was for the entire season there. So just natural regression coming here for Justin Turner.

How about Eddie Rosario? He went two for four on Tuesday, but is batting a paltry, 226 with a 6.02 OPS. And his quality of contact is way down. So I don't know if this is something that's a little bit more related to the ball and the fact that a lot of home runs the past couple of years are taking a step back and kind of turning into fly ball outs.

But I feel like that might happen for someone like Eddie Rosario who doesn't typically hit the ball all that hard, Scott. So what's your worryometer on him? Yeah, I've been slow to move him down. because we've seen, like we saw a lot of hitters dramatically improve their production in May versus April.

I put a list of 42 on the site in an article I wrote, it just went up on the site Tuesday. 42. Huge difference in their numbers from April to May. And, you know, as I mentioned already, league-wide Babbip went up a crazy amount from

April to May and it gets it goes up pretty consistently every year it goes up as the months get hotter and the biggest jump is May to June so I would want to hold out

on most every struggling hitter just with that in mind that the biggest jump in League White Babbick is normally made to June now you're talking home run rate for Eddie Rosario, which is of course independent for Babbitt. But I think it's a fine theory you bring up.

I'm just not ready to... I just don't know that I'm ready to act on it yet, especially given that he is so good at making contact for somebody who's shown useful power in the past. Yep. The home run to flyball ratio for Eddie Rosario this season is 6.3%. That has been over 15% each of the past two seasons. So

even if it doesn't get back to that number, I mean, this is really low compared to his career average of 13% home run to fly ball ratio for Eddie Rosario. So I do think better he's coming. And he's running a lot more with Cleveland. He's got five steals and his career high

is 11, which he did as a rookie back in 2015. So he's on pace to shatter that. So we shall see. We're not dropping any Rosario anywhere. right? No, no, I can't imagine doing that outside of something really shallow. I think I still have him in my top

30 outfielders for the rest of the season. Certainly top 40. Maybe you do it in like a 10-team points league with three outfielders, but even then it's a little shakey. I don't know that I would. Right. How about Jack Flaherty, who we really haven't talked

much about recently, but David Moore actually emailed in. Shout out to David Moore. He kind of put me on this, And he opened my eyes to the underlying numbers for Jack Flaherty, which are not very good. Flaherty was at the White Sox on Tuesday. He allowed seven runs. Only three of those were earned, so some questionable defense there behind him.

He only lasted three and two thirds, two walks, three strikeouts. He also had two wild pitches and two hit by pitches. And he's got a 2.84 ERA, fine. But that comes with a 4.09 X-FIP, 4.12 expected ERA. His home run to flyball ratio for Flaherty, 9%. that's 14% for his career. So I guess we kind of assume that will regress closer

to his career mark. His first pitch strike percentage and swinging strike rate are both career lows as well. And he's had a favorable schedule. He's faced the pirates twice, the Brewers, the Rockies on the road, and the Marlins.

So Worryometer Scott on Jack Flaherty, should we be trying to sell high on him? Which we haven't really talked about. I think some of those those rates that you're talking about were influenced from early in the season. He was not at his usual velocity for his first several starts, and I was kind of concerned about that, but that's improved here recently,

and it looks like the swinging strike rate over his past five starts is, well, not counting tonight, but the previous five starts was pretty closer to what's normal for Jack Flaherty, and it was a really good stretch. And those five starts, he had a 169 ERA. the whip was below one for those five starts. Yeah, my worryometers, I'm pretty much one for Flaherty. Okay. So keeping the faith there with Jack Flaherty.

Last one I'll ask you about, Alec Bohm is batting 212 with a 567 Ops. It's got a 28% strikeout rate and a 52% ground ball rate. We spoke about a few third basement already. I think he's probably even a little bit further down the rankings than E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. H. H. Chouhenio, Suarez and Matt Chapman, but Alec Baum has struggled with my least

Scott. Yes, he has. And if you'll remember back prior to the season, one of the great annoyances for me was that Alec Bohm was going about 50 spots earlier than Brian Hayes on average when, you know, he wasn't up that much

longer than Hayes in 2020, and his production was certainly worse. In particular, the fact he had only four home runs in 160 of bats. That didn't seem like it was going to cut it from a corner infielder.

And he had a 410 badbub fueling the high batting average he had. Well, it doesn't have a 410 bad bib this year. His strikeout rate is, you know, it was 20% last year. It's closer to 30% this year. Like, basically, the things he did do well as a rookie,

he's not doing well anymore. And he hasn't improved in the areas that weren't so great, like the power hitting. So I think Bome, in our podcast league, a 12-team points league, I drafted him as my starting third baseman.

I've since dropped them. Now, I did have, I did have Josh Donaldson also on my roster who I could start at third base. So, you know, that factored into the decision, obviously.

But bottom line is, if Bome is the best you're doing at third base, you need an upgrade somehow. Yeah. Again, it's, if you play in a deeper, lineup with a corner infielder.

I'm probably holding Bome. Maybe you keep him on the bench for now and just kind of play the hot hand. The underlying numbers for him are still better. He's got a 265 expected batting average. 439 expected slug. He is hitting way too many ground balls and plate discipline was kind of one of

Bome's calling cards in the minors and it was last year. That hasn't been the case this year. Shrikeouts are up and he doesn't not walk very much. It's right around a 5% walk rate. So I think better days are coming, but maybe not as great as many people thought coming into the season. Again, that is Alec Bohm.

We are going to take a quick break, but when we return, we're going to take a look at some Tuesday mashers, some home runs from Tuesday. I want to talk about Aaron Savale's trade value. We'll do that next on fantasy baseball today. Some home runs that were hit on Tuesday, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I feel like this is just a daily custom now. We'll talk about however many home runs he has the next day.

Vlad Jr., two hits including his 16. home run of the season. His teammate, Lordus Gurell, is one of those players that has heated up in the month of May. Two hits, including his fourth home run. He has multiple hits in seven of his last nine games. Shoah Otani. He's been a little quiet recently. Hit his 15th home run on Tuesday with a 117 mile per hour exit velocity. It was just a screaming line drive right down the line, and it was pretty impressive. Jared Walsh had two more hits. His 11th home run, it came off of a left-handed pitcher. Adolias Garcia, 15th home run of the season now has 40 RBI. I will put you on the spot here, Scott, while I try and fill the space here and pull up your outfield rankings,

but have you moved Garcia up those rankings? Yeah, I moved him up quite a bit. I mentioned on the podcast two days ago that I'm starting to come around to him. The strikeouts have been going down, and he just seems to keep getting better and better. Yeah, I, I, I, I don't think he's going to what kind of pace is he on he's on pace for close to 50 homers right I don't think he's going to be able to I don't think he's going to be able to keep up a

50 homer 18 steel pace or whatever he's on he's bound to regress from there but I do think the odds are better than not that he will remain a must-start player rest of season Scott moved Adolius Garcia up to outfielder 31 and Chris moved Garcia all the way up to outfield 24 ahead of Jesse.

I thought I am. I thought I had it higher than that, honestly. Yeah. Well, this is in head to head. I think in Roto you haven't met 29, Scott, so a little bit higher there. But Chris has Adoles Garcia ahead of Jesse Winker. I'm going to have to have a talk with him about that tomorrow because I don't know. I don't know about that.

Jock Peterson had a double dong on Tuesday. He is now batting 369 in 17 games since returning from the IL. he is 35% rostered, and it looks like he has seven games on the schedule for next week. So that, you know, write him down, Scott, put him on a notepad. He might be a sleeper hitter for next week. Yeah, it might depend how many lefties are facing in those seven games. He doesn't always sit against lefties, but he does a lot. He's been leading off for the Cubs, and he's hot.

He's making a good amount of contact this year, and we kind of- 375, he's batting in May. Now, these two home runs were just his second and third home runs. of the month. It had been a lot of singles. But you know, sometimes that's how that's kind of how it started for Austin Riley. You know, you get the,

you get some of those batted balls to land and then and then the power comes. So we certainly know Peterson has a lot of that. How much higher should this roster rate be, Scott? It's 35% right now. I can see a doubling. Okay. Get it up there to 70?

Yeah. I don't see. Yeah, I don't see a big difference between like Peterson and Kyle Schwerber. I guess Schwerber is going to play a little more regularly. Fair enough. Yeah. Jock Peterson, he's hot. Go get him.

So let's talk about Aaron's Valle and his trade value. I'm also going to bring up Joe Musgrave. We'll talk about them two together as potential trade candidates. But for Savale, another great start at the Tigers, eight innings, one run, six strikeouts, 10 swinging strikes on 104 pitches. The control has gotten back on track for Savali, which is huge for him. Just three walks over his last three starts.

He has now gone six plus innings in eight of ten starts. So I think he's going to give you volume. In a quality start league, he does have more value. In a points league, he does have more value as well. The bad news in the start against the tigers, mind you, 11 hard hit balls, he's got a 3.04 ERA and a 4.09 X-Fit. He's a top 20 starting pitcher right now.

Scott, in both formats so far with Aaron Savali. I still think that we should be trying to sell high on him, but again, the keyword is high. I'm just trying to figure out what can we get back in return for Savali. Would you try to trade him for those hitters I mentioned earlier, or would you shoot higher than that? Oh, shoot higher than that. Okay.

I think he should be marketing Savale like a borderline ace, because that's what does numbers so far this year look like. Yeah, you need to aim higher than that. You need to aim for like Kyle Tucker. The by-low candidate we always refer to, even though his main numbers are great, his season-long numbers, he's still batting something like 220.

They haven't been, the main numbers haven't been good enough to normalize the season-long numbers. So I think he remains a by-low, and yes, somebody you could target with Savale. But that's kind of the range of, hitter, you know, assuming we're doing a pitcher for hitter thing, that I'd aim for with

Savali, because you know, Savali's, if you end up stuck with them, I don't think it's such a bad thing. I do think he's going to get worse from here. He has a 409 X-fip and also a 396 FIP. It's not like the

home run rate is especially low those two numbers being so close together. Now, they are influenced probably by him having an uncharacteristically high, number of walks there early in the season. I think the ERA is going to be more like mid-threes than right around three like it is right now. And him being not such a great strikeout pitcher.

Yeah. Him being not such a great strikeout pitcher, that's obviously that makes it even worse when he has an ERA up there. But it's still good enough that you're going to start him more often than not. Do you think you can get somebody like DJ Lemayhew or Rendon for Savali? Or would you have to add to him to pull that off?

I think you could try it. You know, it really just depends. Part of the problem with naming a very specific trade target is really the starting point when you're looking to trade somebody is who in your league has their need met by acquiring this guy because you need to make the trade. That's the starting point when I go to make a trade. Who could use this player the most?

And then I look on their roster to see who would be a suitable return. So, you know, if you're bringing Savale to the guy who has LaMahue and his pitching staff is stacked, obviously that's not going anywhere. Or at least it most likely isn't. Yep.

So you've got to keep that in mind. But yeah, you know, you try with just Savale and if you have to add more to it for a hitter that, end, I think it's worth adding a little more. Scott, how about Joe Musgrove? I don't, like, the season-long numbers are great. 2.26 ERA. All the underlying numbers look great.

He's got a 2.48 X-FIP. The expected ERA a little bit higher, 3.43 there for Musgrove. So he's allowed some harder contact than you would like to see. But he has now gone five innings or less in five of his last six starts. mind you last time out before Tuesday he was amazing I think it was like 11th strikeouts over seven innings pitched but the volume has been kind of weird for Joe Musgrove

in terms of how deep he's going into his starts yeah because that was something he was always good at yeah that did not seem like the concern for Joe Musgrove coming into this season it was just how effective would he be it's been frustrating that's the word I'd used to describe it today he brought a no hitter into the or I should say Tuesday

He brought a no-hitter into the fifth inning, but then loaded the bases, and I think that's why he got pulled. Like, you look at the line and, like, why would they take him out when he didn't even go five? You know, he's only allowed a few base runners. He was striking out a bunch of guys. And it's just because he happened to,

it happened to all come at once. And so, you know, they didn't want to, they didn't want the game to fall apart right there. So, I don't know. I don't think it's going to be a season-long issue for him. I think his track record suggests it won't be. I think it's just kind of a weird stretch he's going through right now. And obviously, he made me feel a lot better after that last start as dominant as it was,

that he's still, you know, the signs of a breakthrough that Musgrove was showing earlier or still intact, just needs to start going beyond five innings. Yep. And I was watching that start because it was of interest. to me, it was Joe Musgrove against Corbyn Burns, so obviously it's a really fun pitching matchup there. And he walked Corbyn Burns, the opposing pitcher, on four pitches to load the bases.

And I think he had 84 pitches at that point. Colton Wong was coming up with the bases loaded. So they opted to go to the lefty reliever and Tim Hill, lefty-on-lefty matchup there against Colton Wong. So that's why he was pulled a little bit earlier than you're used to seeing because obviously it was a matchup thing there for him. But just walking the opposing pitcher on four pitches, he didn't have it that inning.

So I think that's why they pulled him a little bit early. The by-low window is now close, Scott, on Charlie Morton. I hope you bought it while you could because he went into Boston, which not the easiest place to pitch against that lineup. And he allowed just one earned run with nine strikeouts over seven innings pitch, 16 swinging strikes on 103 pitches. That's two straight quality starts with 17 strikeouts to just two walks during that span. So not really much else to add here, but.

Morton looks like he's back. Just five hits and 13 innings over those two starts too. So yeah, he looks like he's dominating and we all expected him to bounce back. So, yay for us.

The shout out to the Padres. They are running wild this season. They had six more steals as a team on Tuesday. They are first in baseball by far. They have 56 steals as a team. That's 21 more than the Kansas City Royals now. That number's probably going to get closer now that Alberto Mondesi is back.

But one of those steals came from Jerks and ProFar and I just wanted to show him some love, Scott, because he has 11 hits with three steals over his last eight games since returning from the COVID IL and the Padres are dealing with injuries, Trent Grisham on the IL, Mani Machadoes banged up. Jerks and ProFar is only 37% rostered. He has first, second and outfield eligibility. So I think if he needs steals, ProFar is someone that you can look at. Yeah, maybe. He has one home run though and is slugging 328. So it's, he's hit for some power in the past.

He had a decent home run total for the short season last year. But he doesn't impact the ball very hard. And like I'm so much offense is generated with power that I'm just hesitant to start anybody at this point. even like my 15 team leagues that I don't think is going to provide me power. It's not like ProFar is this proven 40 steel guy. So you never know when he's going to stop running too. Like you may have already kind of like with Lebramone Luriano, right? Like he had all those steals in April and then it's just stopped running in May.

Something that happens. So yeah, I can't. I can't really get excited about ProFar. I hear you on the steel thing. It's like it could just start and stop at any point. but this team philosophy with the Padres, they just let their guys run. So I would trust in them a little bit more than other teams.

And again, this is like a deeper format thing. He's 37% rostered, so he's widely available. Again, the name there, jerks and pro far, if you are in need of some steals. Not much power there. Any interest in these three starting pitcher, Scott, who all pitched on Tuesday, Vince Velasquez, six shutout against the Marlins.

He's 16% rostered. Terrick Scouble had nine strikeouts, two runs loud, over five innings against Cleveland. and Brad Keller, who was at the raise. He allowed one run with seven strikeouts over seven innings pitched. All three of these pitchers are 32% rostered or less. So the one I'm least interested in is Vince Velasquez, even though he's on a nice run here.

Three combined earned runs and four may starts for Vince Velasquez. I just, I don't really see what's changed for him other than not allowing runs, you know? So I'm skeptical of it. Really skeptical of that one. The one I'm most interested in is Terrick's scubal, who I think is really beginning to put it together. I know Chris has noticed it as well. So nine strikeouts in five innings in this start for Scoobel,

and I believe he had nine strikeouts in five innings in his last start too. Yeah. So he's been using his secondary pitches a lot more. And in these last two starts, the sliders really, played up. But he's also shown more ability with the change-up. Remember, the knock on scoobble coming into the

season was the fastball really seemed to be the only pitch that was doing him any good. But that seems to be changing. And if we can get him to go longer than five innings, we could really be on to something. So scoobble's pretty interesting. Keller, yeah, it looks like Keller's gotten back on track.

But I don't think Brad Keller was ever going to be any more or less than Brad Keller. and... Don't do it. That's my advice. Don't do it. What that means is he's probably just a streamer type,

somebody who stands out mostly for his work club. So that's where he is, and I think that's where he's always been. There was a lot more action that happened on Tuesday. What else did I want to highlight from this? Lucas G. Leto, this is now, I believe it's two or two starts in a row where he's looked pretty damn good, got back on track,

six innings, two runs, five strikeouts, zero walks. A huge key for Gioledo is limiting the walks. He had 14 swinging strikes on 92 pitches. Eight of those came on the slider. So super encouraging there for him. And then Logan Gilbert, I guess, had his best start of the season. It still wasn't great, but four innings, two runs, zero walks, four strikeouts. The biggest issue for him, Scott, when I watch, is he has a hard time commanding his breaking pitches.

he had just one called strike on 36 breaking pitches. So his slider and curb ball combined, that's been the biggest thing for me is he just can't really locate those right now. Oh, my gosh. I just saw Rafael Montere that saved for the Mariners. Now, I know Kendall Graveman's on the COVID-I.L. I don't think it's been confirmed whether he actually is sick himself because there's other reasons you could go on that I-O.

But Kenan Middleton got the save yesterday. And I think Montero worked like the sixth or something, and that was like the third appearance in a row where he's worked prior to the eighth, much less the night. So I thought they were done with this Raphael Montero thing. Actually, in a 2014, my 2014 Dynasty League, I dropped Montero and picked up Keenan Middleton.

Here they are going right back to Montero. I don't know if Middleton needed the day off. I mean, Montero allowed two hits, so it wasn't pretty. It's been annoying. That's been an annoying closer scenario, the Mariners. Oh, yes. very annoying, which is a great segue into our call to the pen.

Some bullpen updates. Kenan Middleton had only pitched one time in the past three days, it looks like, coming into, so I guess he could have been available. He should have been available. Another very annoying bullpen, the Cincinnati Reds. Look like we finally had a normal

save chance. T.J. Antone recorded eight outs across the sixth through eighth inning. He relieved Tyler Malley who started the game. Amir Gavir Gavis. started the ninth to face Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Kyle Schwaborber,

who they pinch hit for. He recorded two outs. He has allowed a solo home run to Josh Bell. And then Lucas Sims got the final out against Starling Castro for his second save. I think it's just a mix and match, play the matchups. If they,

if Antone, if Malley gave them more length, Anton might have just pitched the final three innings for the save, honestly. So, yeah, he might have. We haven't known who the Reds closer is for like a month and a half now since Garrett lost the job in early April. And I was wondering if David Bell would go back to Garrett because in May prior to this appearance where, you know, the only thing of Garrett allowed was a solo home run.

It's worth pointing out. But in 6 May appearances, he had allowed no runs, 10 strikeouts in 5 and 2 thirds innings, two hits, two walks. It looked like Amir Garrett had gotten back on track. So I was thinking they might go back to him. I suspect he would have finished the inning if he didn't allow that home run, right? But he did allow it. So Sims came in.

Yeah, it's, this is the Reds bullpen. I think only the Diamondbacks bullpen right now. I feel like I know less about what the team is doing than the Reds bullpen. For Cleveland, Aaron Savali allowed the first two runners to reach in the ninth inning. And then James Karen Shack came in.

He allowed an RBI single, but picked up his sixth save of the season. For the Royals, Josh Stalmont was unavailable. Kyle Zimmer got his second save, and it seems like... Was Stalmont unavailable? I was looking for that.

I believe he had pitched a bunch recently. He had gotten two days off in a row. Actually, yeah, you're right. So he pitched on the 22nd, he pitched on the 19th, the 18th, the 15th, and the 14th. So he has used a lot, been used a lot over the past 10 days-ish, but I mean by definition

yeah you're right Stallmont should have been available yeah that was now Kyle Zimmer had been on the IL for like a month with a shoulder strain this was his third appearance since returning

these numbers are pretty good I think they had a left-hander coming up in the top of the 9th so maybe it made sense to stick with with Brent's Jake Brent's

who's a left-hander, he was pitching the 8th, and then bring in, and then if they're not going to go the full inning, maybe they don't want to warm up Stamont. I don't know. I mean, I still think Stamont's the front runner there. I'm not really picking up, not really thinking about picking up Kyle Zimmer, except in like an AL-only league.

But it's reason to wonder if changes are afoot in Kansas City. Josh Stamont has done nothing to lose the job technically. It was weird situation. He's been kind of shaky. He hasn't been blowing saved. but he's been kind of shaky. For the Twins, another one.

Yeah, Hansel Robles is the guy, right? Nope. He was using the 7th, 2, 3, and 4 in the lineup. Alex Colomé came in in the 8th, and Taylor Rogers was used in the 9th. He picked up his third save of the season. He actually came in for one out in the 8th, Rogers, and then finished it out.

But, yeah, I had a feeling this might happen because Hansel Robles, he actually did blow a safe Sunday and was shaky the previous outing, too, and just didn't lock down the roll. I think the way the twins were hoping for. So I'm thinking Taylor Rogers is the front runner there again. For the Cubs, Craig Kimbril got his 10 save.

For the Phillies, Hector and Erics got his eighth. For the Mets, Edwin Diaz got his eighth. And for the Braves, Will Smith got his eighth. A lot of eighth saves on Tuesday. To stream or not to stream for Wednesday, we will kick it off with Johnny Quato at Diamondbacks. Merrill Kelly versus the Giants.

Luis Garcia versus the Dodgers. Griffin Canning versus the Rangers, James Caprillion versus the Mariners, and John Gant at the White Sox. All right, so I got to remember what I said yesterday. I think Caprillion was the easy one, then Griffin Canning, and then Luis Garcia, if you have to.

On Thursday, we have Antonio Sensatella at the Mets, Spencer Howard at the Marlins, Tyler Anderson versus the Cubs, Brady Singer at the Rays, Shane McClainan versus the Royals, and Chris Flexen versus the Rangers. McClanahan against the Royals seems fine.

He has gone five plus and back-to-back outings, I think. Not really wild about any of the others, but let's see, going to force me to use somebody. Maybe his opponent there, Brady Singer, against the race, maybe. Yeah, it's tough because the rays are so hot right now. You're so hot right now.

Unlike Hansel. You're so hot right now. Yeah. Oh, Spencer Howard against the Marlins. Did you mention him? That's kind of injured. But you just don't know if he's going to be built up enough to go the minimum for a win. Yeah.

It's pretty yucky, Frank. Pretty yucky slate there on Thursday if you're looking to stream a pitcher. I, yeah, I like McClanhan, probably Brady Singer. Oh man, famous last words, but Antonio Sinsettella on the road. I thought you were going to go there. Since that Mets' AAA lineup. The Mets are so bad right now, man. It's, oh gosh.

So I guess you go at Antonio Sanzatella. We don't have enough time to get to your fantasy justice question, so I apologize. And thank you for all the emails that you've been sending in. I see them. I answer them a lot of them personally. So I know we haven't answered a lot of your questions recently here on the podcast, but we will get to your fantasy justice questions at some point throughout the rest of the week. I've got some Apple podcast review questions that we will get to.

Continue to email us. I will answer those personally as well. For Scott, I'm Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Thank you.