Fantasy Baseball Today - Risers & Fallers Heading Into March Fantasy Baseball Drafts! (3/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 2, 2026

Spencer Strider made his spring debut and it was disappointing (2:50). ... Does these things matter? First up, Ryan Weathers (17:18)! ... Ronald Acuña is off and running (21:00). ... Jac Caglianone is crushing the ball so far (24:25). ... We didn't see too much from Roki Sasaki and Andrew Painter (28:00). ... Is Mick Abel legit (31:40)? ... News (37:00): Zack Wheeler is ramping things up. ... Eury Perez is rising inside the Top-100 (51:40). ... Are Carroll and Lindor falling enough (58:07)? ... Eugenio Suarez isn't rising enough (1:01:16). ... Scott and Chris wrap up with the rest of the biggest ADP risers and fallers from February (1:07:02). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, watching. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, and welcome to Fantasy Baseball today.

I am Chris Towers. I'm here with Scott White. It is officially March. March 1st for those of you watching live, at least for the next 52 minutes. March 2nd for all of you listening out in podcast land. There is no Frank Stample here. He's probably on his way back from Arizona or coming back tomorrow from Arizona. He had his NL laborer.

I'm sure we'll talk about that this week. I'm sure we'll talk about some of the stuff he saw out in Cactus League action and what he didn't see out in Cactus League action. But what we saw in Grapefruit League action, Scott, was the return of your boy. Spencer Strider. I guess the return, the spring debut, he returned last year, but the, the hoped for return of the Spencer Strider with little flames coming up, like on your shirt. Yeah.

Did you see the version of Spencer Strider with the little flames coming up and whatnot? No. No. No, we didn't. Unfortunately, Strider was without the flames in his spring debut. view. And it's pretty discouraging. It's pretty discouraging. I don't, I know if you want me to just jump in or if you were going to jump, jump in right now. Jump in. Okay. So his fastball average 93. It was 95 and a half last year. Yep. It was 97.2 back in 2020. Yes. Yes. So clearly not the

direction we wanted to see that fastball go. and I think, look, it's the start of spring training. It was a start made in February. But this is the first data point we've had on Spencer Strider in a long time. We've had theories. We've had comments. That's all we've had to go on. This was the first data point in a long time for a very troublesome pitcher.

And it didn't help relieve any concerns. And so I have to say, I mean, I'm not going to argue with the data. I have to say that based on this performance, based on all the knowledge we have on Spencer Strider right now, I'm staying away. I mean, unless he just plummets from his ADP, I wasn't eager to draft him in the first place. I thought I might be willing to do it at ADP. I hadn't had occasion to do that. ADP has him going about 30th at starting pitcher. I thought, yeah, that seemed like a reasonable risk for the reward.

But it just, there are so many other rewarding pitchers in that range of the rankings that I just, it never happened that I took Strider. Somebody else always did. But now, like, I think he's got to drop outside the top 50, at least for me to think about taking that shot on him. With what we know now. Reserve the right to change my mind if he comes out throwing 95, 96 in his neck. which is possible. I mean, that is kind of how spring works.

I will note. And he said explicitly that he is not amped up all the way, that he's specifically not trying to throw as hard as he can for the record. For the record. This is how Mark Bowman, Braves Beat Rider for MLB.com, put it. He's, okay, so quoting Strider, it's going to take time to get things where I know everybody wants them to be. In the meantime, I'll keep hiding the radar guns and we'll go from there.

That's a little joke. This is Mark Bowman's comment. Strider is right. There's no reason to overly concern yourself with any pitcher's velocity during the first few weeks of spring training. And when a high-energy athlete like Strider decides to begin pacing himself, there's no reason to be concerned about how hard he is throwing a full month ahead of his regular season debut. So that is how Mark Bowman, the Braves Beat Rider, is spinning it. there aren't many writers on the Braves beat right now. Unfortunately,

there's just a lot of turnover going on there. So we're mostly relying on him. There was some clear editorializing there in what is meant to be just a straight news story, which is a little odd. But it seemed like Mark Bowman was really stressing the issue. It's also the sort of thing you'd expect a beat writer to say. Not that I'm accusing him of dishonesty or anything.

but it helps a beat writer's relationships to spin things in a positive way. And so they're generally going to do that, particularly when that's the stance the pitcher is taking. If you're looking for a more optimistic data point, like the one encouraging thing from this Strider outing is that the induced vertical break on his fastball is back up to 18 inches, which is where it was at his best. So I've been stressing throughout the offseason

throughout this whole ordeal with Strider that the show, is more important than the velocity. And he has been emphasizing that, too. He's looking to get the shape on his fastball back. It looked like the shape was back. But I wasn't counting on another two mile per hour drop of velocity. You know, he got one whiff on his fastball on that outing. 10, you know, one out of 10, 10% whiff rate.

So that's what he was last year. But obviously a terrible whiff rate. And it doesn't suggest that pitch is going to be a bat miss or at that lower velocity. So you're counting on it being. true what Strider is saying, what Mark Bowman is saying that it's just because it's early in spring training and he's going to regain that velocity over time. He's just not ready to air it out yet. But I think given the history, given the concerns we already had, like we need to see evidence of that. We can't just go on happy feelings. And especially like you said, he's like the 26th starting

pitcher off the board. Yeah. If he was 50, it's very easy to look at a starting pitcher in that range. Like, I'm not a big Gavin Williams fan. I think my skepticism of him is pretty well known. But at his price, it's like, okay, yeah, sure. I can see the optimistic view of Gavin Williams. Or like, over the past week, Blake Snell has dropped to about 45. I've made my skepticism of Blake Snell very, very note. But there, it's like, yeah, I can only, it's not safe. It's not fair to say I can only see the upside there, but it's a lot easier to see the case with the 160th pick in the draft than the 110th pick in the draft. And I think I don't think Spencer Strider's just throwing 93 now, right? Like I think that's right. Well, I mean, why did that happen? Was there another injury we didn't hear about? Why does he say he coming and throwing two miles per hour slow?

He said he's just very consciously not throwing as hard as he can't right now. And okay, I'll take him. his word but like what that doesn't tell me is does he get up to 94 and a half that would i think be a pretty typical uh jump for a pitcher from their first spring start to where they end up in the season well that'd be a mile and a half per hour from where he's at right now would still be a mile per hour down from where he was last year which may not have been good enough maybe with the improved shape it is but that it's a lot of maybes there's a lot of maybes and you know you You know, you're passing up like Chase Burns to do that.

So many of those young and exciting second year pitchers, rookies, some of them technically. But guys, we saw last year. And it just doesn't seem, you shouldn't be that desperate for upside at that point in the draft. It would have to come later. And this just seems like a little too convenient of an excuse for me, what's being said right now. So, you know, we'll sit back.

We'll see more. fortunately, very few of you are going to be drafting before the, you know, the vast majority of drafts happen the final weekend before the season starts. And we'll have more data points for Strider than. And maybe the picture will change again slightly. But if you do have to draft right now based on what we know now, I would let him fall a long way before I consider taking him. I agree.

I'm glad you took the lead because I was worried I was going to be too negative. You're about as negative as I am. I basically, I will say, I'm not going to say I can't see any world in which Spencer Schreter is a very good pitcher without a very good fastball. But if he has the same fastball he had last year, I don't think there's any way. I just don't think he has the arsenal to thrive with the fastball he had last year. During his first two seasons when he was arguably the best pitcher in fantasy across those two years, 50.5% of his strikeouts came on the foreseer.

Like he was really, really leaning. He really had to lean on that pitch for success. And why not? It's 97, 98 mile an hour fastball with great shape. The other thing I'll add is the 18.5 inch induced vertical break is less impressive at a lower volume because the ball has more time to travel. So the higher the velocity, the less time the ball has to move. And so it would make an 18 inch IVB at 93 is a lot less impressive than at 96 or 97. So that's at least what I've seen smart people who know what they're talking about say.

I will admit, I think I'm pretty sharp, but there's a lot of this stuff that gets more in the weeds than I'm. than I'm comfortable with. So that's just me listening to smart people I trust. And yeah, not much to, I would say nothing to be optimistic about from Spencer Strider's first spring start. It doesn't necessarily mean he's hopeless. But yeah, I, this was a very discouraging performance from Spencer Strider. And I think we're at the point where we need reasons to be encouraged to draft him.

So, yeah. As the guy wearing the Spencer Strider shirt on this podcast, totally fair. Yeah. You're wearing it in mourning. Yeah. There was some teeth gnashing and wailing going on before the poddusts. These flames, they're tears. They're flames of sadness.

So that's it for Spencer Strider. We'll see what the next couple starts look like. But could you draft them inside the top 40 starting pitchers right now? No, if you were listening, Chris. I was listening. I just wanted to confirm. All right. Well, that is...

Let me see if I can find this real quick, faster than I could find those quotes from the article. That would put, if I say outside the top 50, it would put Spencer Strider. Oh, I'm an NL-only ranking. So no, I can't find it quicker. I would guess outside of top 150, at least, in the overall ranks.

Yeah, I was just trying to give some names that he was going behind. But you know what? The website is going slow. You take it Zach Wheeler, how to Spencer Strider right now? So that's, okay, I pulled it up now. You know, I just need a few extra seconds. Enough to lose everybody's attention.

I have Wheeler 52nd. So 50th put Strider behind like Chris Boobich, Sunny Gray. I have Boobich higher the most. Luis Castillo, Joe Musgrove. Sunny Gray versus Spencer Strider, I might just do Strider. Yeah. So let's say 45. Let's say 45.

That puts him behind. Ami, Michael King, Robert Suarez. Michael King looked good in his spring debut. Yeah, I think that's a more appropriate threshold to take the shot on Strider. Maybe in a deeper league you play it safe with like a Luis Castillo. But yeah, I think Strider still in most circumstances you're going to want to chase the upside there. All right. We've got a whole bunch more spring stuff to get to right after this.

the perfect throw to commercial break. Welcome back to fantasy baseball today. I'm Chris Towers here with Scott White, and we have some more spring stuff to talk about before we get to ADP risers and followers from January to February. And Scott, we are going to fire up the does this matterometer? Everybody's favorite spring event. My favorite omit for sure.

The old does this matter omitore? Look, spring training, the answer is probably no. That's the default. Just how it is. But I'm going to try to find some storylines that I think might matter from, you know, the first what? I mean, we're like 10 days into spring action, right? Man, we are so close to the season starting. Don't remember.

People have no idea. I'm not ready. Somehow they got to fit in a world baseball classic before that happens. But I'm looking on the calendar and the weeks are running out. Yeah, yeah. That's, oh, boy, 25 days, 24 days, something like that. That's not very much time. We're ready.

And Ryan Weathers looks ready for the start of the season. He averaged 98.5 miles per hour with his foreseamer. He hit 99.8 miles per hour. Both of those are the highest we've ever seen from Ryan Weathers. He did 49 pitches in his first spring start. Got a bunch of whiffs. Look great. Does this matter?

Are you moving Ryan Weathers up in your rankings? To me, no. No, this doesn't matter. If past his precedent, it doesn't matter because this is like the third straight spring. Yes, maybe this is the highest. So there's no precedent for that. But it's the third straight string, weather has come out thrown higher than ever before and people got amped up for it.

Maybe it's even amplified this year because he's with the Yankees now. And so it might matter in terms of how early he's drafted, how much as ADP goes up. But I think it's, I think you're chasing trouble there because, velocity increases when you already can't hold up to the velocity you have, and whether's health history shows that, velocity increases are not particularly helpful, because it just means you're landed on the IL sooner. If for some reason, somehow he's able to avoid it,

those other injuries were fluky, or he just has a string of good luck and stays healthy this year, then I suppose it does improve his overall ceiling. but I already thought the ceiling was pretty high and I wasn't ranking them that high. Yeah, there were 16 drafts completed so far this weekend on the NFBC platform. Ryan Weathers is up to 239.8 in ADP in those 16 drafts.

That is ahead of Jack Leiter, Garrett Cole, Rokie Saki, just behind Andrew Abbott, Zach Allen and Matthew Boyd. And that seems fine. I think anything outside the, like, I'm not moving Ryan Weather's way up in my rankings. I have not moved him up yet,

so I can't say exactly where I'm going to move him. But anything outside of the top 200 feels okay to me. Just as a general, like, risk reward, because you start to look at the pitchers going directly outside of the top 200. It's like Carlos Rodon, Shane Boz, Chris Boobich are the first three outside of the top 200. I mean, I definitely take Roeuf-Bich-N. Yeah. But Rodan, Shane Boz,

Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove. Rodon throws, this isn't even such a bold prediction. Rodon throws more innings than Weathers this year. I'm going to go Boulder and say Rodon throws twice as many innings as Weathers this year. So if you're downgrading Rodon for the injury risk, then. That would be a downgrade from last year when I believe he throw five times more innings than Ryan Weathers. But yeah, no, I get what you're saying.

I think I'd still rather have Rodon. I'd still rather. Baws, I think it's a similar risk reward profile. If anything, the reward on the weather side feels a little more obvious to me. I'm more convinced that Ryan Weathers has plus skills than I am, Shane Buz, but obviously he's just shown no ability to stay healthy, especially since he's pushed into the high 90s. Does this matter? Oh, wait, wait, you didn't give me a rating on the Does This Matter, Aometer?

I got to put a number on it. Is that a zero? No, I can't go zero. It's not a past fail course. Ryan Weather's velocity increase is about a 3.5 on the doesn't matterometer. All right. Where does this rank on the Does It Matterometer? Ronald Acuna.

Stole two bases over the weekend. He has three stolen base attempts already in four spring games. Ronald Ocuna has not attempted multiple steals. in a spring training since 2021 when he attempted two and 18 games. If you include his Venezuelan Winter League stats, Ronald Acuna has 14 stolen base attempts in his last 20 games.

Does this matter? This matters. It matters a lot. I'm going to put it maybe at a nine. I was going to say 10. Well, you do like to play at the extremes, Chris. But you combine this two steals. over the weekend with the 11 he had in 16 games in the Venezuelan Winter League.

His own comments. About, I wasn't listening to. His own comments about wanting to feeling like his knees were back at a place where he can get back to his old self on the base paths. And I think something that has been underplayed in our analysis is the hiring of Antoine Richardson, first base coach away from the Mets. I think specifically because the work he did specifically with Juan Soto there and turning him into more of a base dealer. I mean, why do you make a first base coach change like that except if you see something he can help with?

And that's what Antoine Richardson is most known for. So in addition to getting Acuna back to being a base dealer by helping him get better jumps, maybe study pitchers better, the sorts of things he did with Soto. Like it could have an impact on Aussie Albiz, it could have an impact on Michael Harris. Anybody who shows an inkling of stolen base ability on that team. But Acuna specifically, we know what the upside is.

He's not the far removed from being a 70 steel guy. I would take the under on that. But 40 plus I think is very much in the realm of possibility for Ronald Acuna. That's part of the reason why I think we both rank him higher. than the consensus. The tough one for me, because I think you have Acuna 6th, right? In Roto. In Roto.

Fifth, yeah. I haven't had a soda. I had a soda even. Okay, so that's the boldest. That's bolder than I'm willing to go. I did originally have him six behind what I thought was a very clear top five. I've moved Kyle Tucker ahead of him with Tucker signing with the Dodgers. And I think that's fair.

The problem is Tucker's signing with the Dodgers is not getting. getting that level of appreciation from the drafting community as a whole. And so if I continue to rank Kyle Tucker ahead of Ronald O'Connor, I will never get Ronald to Cunia. So I may have to make that adjustment just to give myself a chance at securing a player who has an outside shot of being the top player in fantasy this year. He obviously was in 2023. We've seen a historic like $60 kind of season from him in last three years.

And I think this is evidence. He's going to be a better base dealer this year than, of course, Aaron Judge, but also Otani, who doesn't seem like he's getting back to that 59 steel standard he's set in a year he wasn't pitching. So, yeah, very much matters. Does it matter that Jack Caglione had a single batted ball this weekend over 120 miles per hour, becoming the eighth player in the Stackast era, dating back to 2015, who has done that? Let me get the actual names, make sure I've got everyone, because it's an impressive list. Giancarlo Stanton has done it like, I don't know, 30 times.

O'Neill Cruz has done it seven times. That's very impressive. Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Otani, Gary Sanchez, and now Jack Caglio, are the only players to hit a batted ball 120 miles an hour. To me, it's like in some sense this isn't new. we always knew Jack Caglione had high end plus raw power. But like, again, eighth player ever.

In the minors, in a spring game, in the postseason, in a regular season game, we were talking several thousand worth of games. And he is the eighth player to do it. I'm starting to get pretty excited about Jack Caglione. Or just reminding myself why I should be excited about him, I guess is the way to put it. I mean, of course it matters that he did this. that is I think a clear indication of a player's power potential the max number than the average number which is so often cited I mean the average number probably matters more it's more functional versus stats yeah but just talking about the skill level a player has of course it matters and yes jack cagliom put up jaw dropping exit velocity numbers at the university of Florida that was one of the selling points as a prospect that was with aluminum bats and so You know, it wasn't totally clear how it would translate, but now we're seeing it's fully translating.

And by the way, not an isolated incident. On Saturday, he had a double 116.5 miles per hour. He's been, I mean, it's only like six games, I think, but he's destroying the ball right now. His first one walks and strikeouts, yeah. For his first home run this spring was 115.2 miles per hour when 400. It wasn't like 400. Yeah. Okay.

So, like, he's been killing it all spring. And he was, he was. he was terrible as a rookie in terms of the actual stats he put up but the underlying numbers painted a much more favorable picture for a guy with that much power as a rookie first tour of duty in the majors he struck out just 22% of the time very encouraging obviously we've talked a lot about the royals moving in the fences we haven't mentioned jack caglione as somebody who could potentially benefit

but of course he could They did just sign Starling Marte over the weekend, which could impact his playing time some early on. I mean, we'll see how he performs. But the way Caglione has looked this spring, I think he's I think he's surging up draft boards. He should be. He's definitely surging up my rankings. I'll probably have, you know, it won't be until next week that I come out with my sleepers 2.0, and I'm afraid at that point nobody will think of Caglione as a sleeper.

That's the way this is trending. Like he's clearly. Clearly the biggest riser of the spring so far. Among hitters, at least for sure. Yeah. I mean, Charlie Condon, maybe we'll get him. He's rising this spring, but not even clear he'll make the team. So Caglione, yeah, I'm very excited.

I'll put this at a, I'll put this at a 10 on the Does It Matter Oometer. All right. Does it matter O meter? O meter. Does it matter? Does it matter O meter? Yeah. that I thought Rokey Sosukee kind of still looked bad.

I don't know if you watched it or saw. His velocity was up. He averaged 96.8. It was up from when he was in the starting rotation. It was still like 15 inches of IBB, still commanded it really poorly. He did have a new cutter that was 87 miles per hour. It was a slider, I think. They're just trying to differentiate it from the slider he threw last year.

You would think a guy throwing a 97-mile-hour fastball. If they're throwing a true cutter, it's more. more like a 91, 92 mile hour cutter or something. It'll operate like a slider. I didn't find it particularly interesting looking. I don't know if you have any thoughts on Rookie Sasaki's first start. I just, I was, this is another one where I'm looking for a reason to be optimistic like with Spencer Strider. And I just didn't see it here.

Okay. I was just making sure I didn't miss another outing over the weekend because this was. No, it was Thursday or Friday? Wednesday last week that he made this first start. But yeah, I agree. the velocity was up from last year, but at his best in Japan, he was averaging 98. Yeah.

And it wasn't that high. He did get it up toward the end of last year after that stint in the minors, and that's why Rookie Sasaki served as the Dodgers closer in the postseason. They won a World Series doing that. But even then, he didn't miss a lot of bats. He didn't miss a lot of bats. And that was in short spurts, obviously,

and not being stretched out to start. I ended up taking Roki Sasaki in the NL-only auction we did last week. Those results will be up Monday if you want to look at those. $7 is what I took him for in NL-only. I wasn't excited about it, but I was at a point where I just had to get whatever value I could find at starting pitcher. And that seemed like a nice price for somebody with his theoretical upside. But I wouldn't say I'm confident in Roki-Sisaki meeting that upside. So on the doesn't matterometer, Rookie Sasaki's first start, like it's just one.

So I'll put it at a five. It doesn't really move the needle for me either way. But it's not what I wanted to see as Rookie Sasaki skeptic. I would say we also saw Andrew Painter make his spring debut on Sunday, and it was kind of the same thing, where I was looking for reasons to be optimistic. And it was a weird start because I think it was like one in a third inning. He only threw 20 pitches, 13 of them were four seamers. This is a guy with a six pitch arsenal, but... Yeah.

The four seamer by the stuff ratings that I saw, rated out really poorly, which I was surprised for a 96, 97-man-hour fastball. Yeah, I was hoping to have more positive things to say about Andrew Painter for a start, particularly given the buzz in Philly's camp about him having regained his fastball shape because apparently the problem last year was coming back from the injury. He kind of lost his arm slot and it dropped too low. and he worked to eat it back up where it needs to be to make his fastball effective. They have emphasized command is back, and he did throw a lot of strikes on those 20 pitches.

So I don't know. It's not what I wanted to see, but it's, I wanted to say that matters so much to me. Like I was hoping for more, but it's not enough for me to really draw any conclusions on Andrew Painter, I would say. Five, call it a five? Yeah, we'll call it a five. What about Ford? We'll call it up for it. It matters less than Sasakis. What about a guy

Andrew Pantry used to be teammates with, presumably I would assume, in the miners? I didn't check before I said that, but I assume. Mick Abel, who's now on the Twins. Boy, he looked really good. It was spring training, yeah. But six strikeouts and three innings against the Braves on Sunday.

Nine of his 10 whiffs came on his four seamer and slider. Velocity was up, one to 1.6 miles per hour across those two pitches. He had 10 whiffs in his three innings. It was a very impressive start from Mick Abel, who is in a surprisingly crowded Twins rotation battle, but it's open. I mean, he's got a chance to be in that rotation.

Is this someone you are adding to your radar at least? Yeah, I think so, because this is two in a row now. So he dominated the Braves on Sunday, had the 10 whiffs on 43 pitches, including six on the fastball. You know, I love to see whiffs on the fastball. ball, 55% whiff rate on the fastball, 50% wiff rate for the game. But that was 10 whiffs on 43 pitches.

His first spring start last Monday, 12 whiffs on 46 pitches. And he got seven of those on the fastball. And by the way, his velocity was actually down a little from last year in that first start. It was up in the second start up over last year's velocity. So either way, he was missing a lot of bats and missing bats on the fastball specifically. So Mick Abel at one point was a pretty high-end prospect for the Phillies, kind of fell off a little, had some control issues late in the minor. If you remember last year, he came up, scintillating debut, where his velocity was way up, seemed like maybe he was amped up, and then didn't do a lot after that, didn't it sustain that velocity bump. But the upside is still there, clearly.

and may still be rough around the edges or may be ready to take the leap this year. And the twins, they have a lot of arms, but not any that Mick Abel couldn't jump ahead of. Yeah, the twins outside of Joe Ryan and maybe Bailey Ober, although I think even including Bailey Ober, it's kind of like eight or nine number four or number five starters, and they're just hoping a couple of them make a leap,

because there's some youth in there. A bunch of these guys are 24, 25, or younger. So not nothing there in the Twins rotation, but they're going to cycle through a lot of guys, I think. I'm going to add Mick Abel to my list of players. I need to adjust in the rankings. I don't know if he's going to win a spot. Yeah.

But, I mean, he's such a complete afterthought right now. That it may be changing, but yeah, it's. He's put himself on the radar for fantasy. It might be a draft and stash situation. So I'm not going to go crazy with the ranking yet, but I'm very interested by what I'm seeing. So I will put that as a seven on the Doesn't Matterometer. Thank you for getting that number in.

And we are going to take one more break. And then we're going to come back. Got to move a little quicker through spring news and notes. We can get to ADP risers and followers. I didn't realize we were at 30 minutes. All right. Time flies when you're having fun. with friends. We'll be right back. Welcome back to fantasy baseball today. The only fantasy baseball

podcast today, at least the only one with Scott White and Chris Howers. We're back. And we're going to run through some spring news and notes from the weekend slash like the last five days. We're just getting out of position previews. And it's really almost impossible to ever talk news during position previews. And I've seen some comments asking about it. These podcasts are already two hours, guys. We can't, we can't push like three hours just to get to news. So I'm going to try to catch us up on as much news as we can. Scott, you just stop me when you hear something that you would like to talk about. Okay. Put a hand up or flash a light or something. Just get my attention or just say it. Zach Wheeler is at the beginning of a six-week ramp up period and he will

make his debut after that, assuming all goes according to plan. So it looks like we could be talking mid-April. For Zach Wheeler, still not 100% clear if we're going to see him in spring starts, although there is a chance. And obviously, he needs to get through the next six months or six weeks without any setback, but it was good to see that. Pablo Lopez did end up having the internal brace procedure to repair his UCL. The good news is that's the version of UCL reconstruction with a shorter return to play

timetable. We should see him, honestly, during spring training next year, I would guess, and possibly ready for opening day. The bad news is, well, the return to previous levels of play is a lot less certain than it is with Tommy John Serger. So we'll take that one by year. As we've seen with Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider famously. Shane McClainahan will make his spring debut on Tuesday versus the Phillies.

This is another one we're going to be watching very, very closely, just like Spencer Strider. And really, we're just looking for reasons to be optimistic about McLeanhan. Clanahan, although I think some folks aren't exactly waiting for that because his ADP is on the rise. Did he make it into the spring rise, the ADP risers and fallers? I can't remember if he did, but he's up to about 215, 220 over the past week at NFBC leagues. He's been pitching off the mound, but we haven't gotten any, I guess we got one velocity report that he hit 95. So that's good. But I'll have a stronger take on Shane McClanahan once I see what he looks like for the first time in two and a half years.

Merrill Kelly is dealing with a back injury. His status for opening day is in doubt, although the team hopes he can avoid the IL and pitch in the first turn through the rotation. So right now, Merrill Kelly remains a very nice late round rotation filler. Justin Steele has been fully cleared by Dr. Keith Meister and is aiming to return to the rotation in May slash June from last year's internal brace procedure. He is a viable stash candidate, although again, it's internal brace. I want to see what Justin Steele looks like before I invest anything in him. And luckily, you don't really have to invest anything in him.

His ADP is outside of the top 350. so in leagues with IL spots, a perfectly fine IL stash. Cody Bellinger will miss a few days with a back injury, but he hopes to be in the lineup midweek. So hopefully this won't be any kind of real issue for him. Joe Ryan threw a bullpen session on Saturday without issue. He's been sitting out with back inflammation, but could still be ready for opening day or shortly thereafter if he avoids any setbacks.

Bryce Miller, this one sounds like he might not be ready for opening day now. He has left side inflammation will be shut down from throwing for five days. before ramping back up. His velocity was up in his first spring start. He averaged like 97. So this one is annoying, and it could delay the start of his season, though I'm not sure this should be enough to knock him down draft boards since he's all readily, ready, relatively late in drafts outside the top 250.

So still, yeah, you get that low in the rankings. It's sort of the, to a certain extent, same thing as Jackson Holiday. At least, I know I had Jackson. holiday lower in my rankings than where he was actually going. But I didn't remove him down that much because it's like, well, it's kind of an upside play anyway. If anything, I kind of don't hate having a guy I can just throw in the IL and get a free waiver wire pick to add. And leagues where that's possible, yeah.

Though I don't have a lot of confidence in Bryce Miller, to be clear. I'm mostly in the same spot. Rafael Devers has been shut down with a hamstring injury, but should be back in a few days. Kyle Stowers will miss one to two weeks with a mild right hamstring strain. Could still be enough time to get ready for opening day if he's on the shorter end of that timetable. But when you're that unproven, I don't love missing spring reps. Kyle Stowers doesn't seem like he has a huge margin for error. So any downgrade here for Kyle Stowers?

Not much of one. Because it sounds like a mild injury. It sounds like there will be time to be ready again. And we should know in plenty of time, whether that's the case. It's always a possibility of a setback. But I still find him to be the most one of the more interesting outfielder's in the range where he's going. And so I'm willing to take on that little bit of added risk that maybe he tries to come back a little too soon and then he misses half of April. I don't think it's worth worrying too much about this.

at this point. There was about a 20-minute period where I was on top of the world, I think, on Friday. It was right after Ronald Ocunia stole a couple of bases. And then we immediately learned that Yoron Alvarez is expected to play some outfield. This season, he will make his spring debut on Monday. The Astros trying to avoid putting too much plate, too much on his plate, given his history of injuries. But they got to find some playing time for Issoc Paredes, Christian Walker, all those guys. and it's going to require some flexibility.

So Yarnon Alvarez, let's get that outfield eligibility early on. Hopefully he's feeling good, gets through spring training. Would love to see Yordaun Averis capable of playing the outfield a couple times a week. Josh Lowe has a left oblique injury different from the right oblique injuries that have been such an issue for him in recent years. Just a tough break for a guy who's had a lot of injuries recent years. Bretton Doyle has a sprained left wrist. Doesn't sound too serious, but it's not a great sign for a guy who might already be fighting. to avoid a platoon role.

Troy Melton has been recommended to rest and rehab from an elbow strain, but he won't be ready for opening day almost certainly, and that feels ominous for a guy that we like a lot. A lot of people like Troy Melton. I haven't given him too much extra thought. Well, especially once they signed for Amber. Well, yeah, I mean, it wasn't going to be in the rotation anyway. But, but, I think even as a stash now, this probably removes Troy Melton for most people.

Max Scherzer signed with the Blue Jays, as expected, giving concerns about Shane Bieber's availability. There's a chance Scherzer could open the season in the rotation if he can get up to speed quickly enough. That's not what I had read, because even without Bieber, they have a full rotation. Yes, with Jose Barrios back in the mix, yeah. And so I think the idea is, I think they're going to play kind of like the doer. Rogers have played Clayton Kirschoff the past few years where he's just hanging out for a couple months until they need him to start gearing up for the second half to deal with attrition. But more than anything to be available for the postseason. I don't know for sure that's how it's going to play out.

But the idea is I think I did read that they plan to take it slow with him and mostly want to make sure he's available for a postseason run. Okay. then Jose Bereas definitely going to open in the rotation and his velocity was down his first start it was back up in the second one I think we know who Jose Barrios is and it's not very exciting uh Shane Bieber still only throwing off flat ground from 100 let me mention for burrios because yes we did know who he was prior to last year last year was pretty awful and took him off the map for fantasy but apparently he was pitching through I'm trying to remember what the injury was I think it was a hip injury.

He revealed that he was pitching through a hip injury the whole season, which would explain why he went off the rails after a very consistent track record was always kind of a curious pitcher because he was better than he looked like he should be from a statistical standpoint. So I think there was it was a biceps injury. So even more explicable, I think, that he struggled with it than a hip injury. But a biceps tendon issue, specifically. but he's over it now.

He's looked good in this spring. Sovar, whatever that means. And I think, I think there's some bounce back potential here for Burrios. The upside is only so high. And so I don't think it's, I don't think you get to the point where you're drafting in the most leagues, but in that same in L only, well, no, it wasn't the same. In the AL only auctioned, the sister league of the NL one where I took Roki Saseki for $7.

I took Burrios for two. And I like that one more. That feels good. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Speaking of the Blue Jay, Shane Bieber is still only throwing off a flat ground from 120 feet.

There is no timetable for him to return to start throwing off a mound. He's been slowed this spring due to forearm fatigue from the end of last season. My expectations and I think everyone's expectations for Shane Bieber have really cratered lately. And I think at this point, he's just a late round dart throw, unfortunately. I mean, it was a kind of tough return from Tommy John surgery. He had multiple setbacks along the way. He gets through like 60 innings between the postseason and regular season. And now five months later, he's still dealing with fatigue or whatever.

That feels pretty ominous. Josh Young has a grade one, a Ducter Strange. Rangers third baseman will be shut down for 10 days. This is another guy who just cannot catch a break. Trey Savage could be limited to three to four innings in his early starts this season, but he will be in the rotation and the hope is that by limiting his innings early on, they won't have to shut him down

or do anything too dramatic to preserve his innings. So, hmm, that's... I didn't catch this one. I mean, that should be... That's a better case scenario, right? I don't know. Okay.

Because if it's only three to four innings, zero chance of getting a win. Yes. I mean, is he even worth, using in mostly the limited pitcher spots you have is it just going to be is yeah but is he going to be kind of just taking up a place on your bench until the point when

Trey is Savage is but how long is the games? I don't know that they I didn't see the original report I don't know if they offered any kind of timeline right the three or four inning starts mean the first third of the season or doesn't mean for like his first three turns Is that?

It was, he'll have his workload monitored early in the, in the regular season, could be limited to three to four innings per start at the outset of the regular season as part of a deliberate ramp-up process. Okay, outset. Yeah, I would guess a couple of starts, but probably not like the whole month or anything. I mean, this does, at the very least, I think it justifies more the gap between Nolan McLean and Trey is Savage, which I know I've been ragging on this whole time. time like why why is uh why is no mclean going that far head or tray savage i don't know i don't know why

that's my impression of myself but it was kind of sounded like like seinfeld was very nasal what's the deal with these second year pitchers i don't know i don't know why are they being drafted so far apart um mclean by the way looked like as good as his biggest fans could have hoped in his first spring start. It looked like he might even be throwing like a new cutter in there. His velocity was up. He looked really, really good. If he's good in the World Baseball Classic, the hype is just going to get out of control

for Nolan McLean. And, you know, not wholly undeservedly. He's very talented. Jackson Holiday will begin to swing a bat later this week as recovers from hamate bone surgery in his hand. I presume that also means Corbyn Carroll and Francisco Indoor will begin. swinging bats because I think they all had surgery on the same day or within one day of each other. Thomas White, Marlins' pitching prospect, has a grade one oblique strain and will miss the rest of the spring.

Marlins' top hitting prospect, Iva Arquette, will be out four to six weeks after core muscle surgery. Good start to the season for the Marlins' top prospects. Thomas White, there was a chance he was going to be able to pitch his way into the rotation, but it was always a long shot. now I would guess it's more we see him in June we probably ramp up in April which they were going to have to limit innings anyway so it's probably okay

but you don't want to see a young player injured the Royal signed Starling Marte he was primarily ADH last season I wonder if they think he can handle a part-time role in the outfield as a smaller side of a platoon with like Kyle Isbell or Isaac Collins

if they think Collins can handle center field when Isbell's not in there Was Collins bad against lefties he's a switch hitter. That I don't know. Because I had worried about, I mentioned Jack Caglione early in the show, and I'd also worried about Carter Jensen.

Yeah, it could just be another bat to fill in at D.H., which would be unfortunate for Carter Jensen. Although I would imagine Marte would primarily play against tougher lefties. So, you know, it might not hurt Jensen all that much. Jet Williams has been shut down for a few days out of Brewers camp with a left quad injury,

and Dylan Cruz was scratched from, Sunday's lineup with left thumb soreness. And with that, let's move on to the biggest ADP risers and fallers from January to February. This is taking January ADP at the NFBC, comparing it to February and looking at the guys who moved up and down the least in different ADP buckets. We'll start with the biggest risers from inside the top 100. Now, I want you to just tell me, we don't need to go in depth on every player. We only have about 20 minutes left in the podcast, but just tell me if you're, buying the new price on them.

If you think it's gone too high or too low. I have my rankings open. They are mixed. They are not in L. Whoever, who refers to mixed leagues anymore? That feels so 2000 and late. Biggest ADP riser from inside the top 200 from January to February is Yuri Perez.

And he only moves seven spots. But when you're inside the top 100, that's a pretty big deal. He's up to 92.3. in the month of February. He didn't have great results in his spring debut, but the stuff rated out extremely well. Are you buying this new price? I'm 91. So 92 is closer to where I have them. Yep. So I guess I'm buying. I mean, it seems like a small change. Yeah. I don't know what's behind the change. Uh, maybe just others dropping. Yeah, might be others dropping or just hype.

The thing about inside the top 100 moves are they all tend to be, relatively small. But when you're talking about, you know, a seventh round pick, going from the mid-seventh to the late sixth, that can matter. I added Yuri Perez to my breakouts when 2.0 came out last week. I think a lot of his struggles last year, which was really only for a couple months.

He was strong in the beginning. He was strong to the finish because he eats the spinach. Couldn't it not think of it. Okay, so he was strong at the end and he just in the middle there for a couple months, I think that was mostly related to the location issues that often played pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. I think he's going to be an ace this year.

I think the breakout is coming. The struggles his sophomore season will look like a blip. Remember how good he was as a rookie? I think he's going to be great. And only concern is innings. I'd be thrilled to take him as my number two. If I got one really thrifty at starting pitcher and missed out on Kyle Bradish,

who's my number one usually in that strategy, Yori Perez is a good backup plan. All right. Austin Riley, I know you like this one, 70.6 to 65.7. I think that's just people were probably too low on Austin Riley before, and now they're getting a little less low. I think they're still too low.

I have him 40. So it's a move in the right direction. I mean, I probably have him too high looking at it again. I probably need to move Josh Naylor ahead of him and Cody Bellinger, both of whom I like a lot too. But I'll still have him higher than the 65 that he's listed at here. And a lot of that is position scarcity. I mean, Therpace is you almost have to reach for somebody there.

You're really not going to like what you get. All right, Mikel Garcia, another third baseman rising from 72.8 to 68.5. That feels fine to me. I have him at 70, so same range. I guess I'm lower on him than the consensus. Seems like it. I know Frank's the high guy on. Yeah, and I've never, there's never been a point in a draft where I thought about taking Michael Garcia.

Part of it's just I prefer. I guess Riley's been going ahead of them all this time. I don't know. I might be a little too low on Michael Garcia looking at it again. I haven't behind like Michael Harris and Tyler Glass now. That doesn't seem right at all. So I might need to bump Garcia up 10, 15 spots and be a little more in line with consensus here. It's fine.

It's the least of these in terms of how much I'm behind it. Yeah, because I know Bryce Trey, ranks the next guy, you're higher than the consensus on him. He's up from 56.6 to 52.8. And I know you have a game. 40th, I think. Yeah, I have him, I have him close to that. I'm not far off.

Oh, my gosh. I'm a little embarrassed to say how high I have brace to rank. 32nd. Okay, I have him 33rd. Okay. Oh, so you're, you've joined with me. Was it the two homer game, that do it for you? Of course, obviously.

Was there anything behind it, really? No, no. I've been much higher than the consensus on Bryce Terrang all along. Him and Perdome are the two guys that just kind of buy what they did last year. Tereng's just weird because 10 of his 18 homers came in August, and I just don't know what to do with that, but I generally just take what he did more or less at face value. And I think the possibility for more as a hitter,

and especially as a base runner to build on what he did last season, I think is what I like about Bryce Turing. You know, I wasn't even joking that much about the two homer game because that is the critical factor. It's the crux of everything. Is can he, you know,

he had for so much power in August. And with the exit velocity increases, he was hinting of that kind of power breakthrough. It's just that his angles were so bad for power that he needed an adjustment there. Got it in August, kind of gave it back in September. How hard he hits the ball, that's legitimate,

but is he going to be able to actualize that and to power more consistently? And so to see him hit two kicking off spring training, both over 106 miles per hour right away. So these weren't Cactus League jeepies. I thought it was encouraging. The longer we go before the next home run, the less it matters.

But it was a really good sign given what Terang what we're hoping for from terrain. All right. And then the last one, Yordon Alvarez, went from 39.2 to 35.5. Still too cheap for me. I've gotten 25th overall in Roto. And I think any sign that he's going to play the outfield

is going to send that price even higher. So I think the Yorna Alvarez, obvious discounts are probably gone in the month of March, I would guess. So you have 26th, actually. 26. Big correction. Frank has him 25th.

I am 36th though. So I like this is, we were all ahead of consensus. Now I'm pretty much right with consensus on Jordan Alvarez. Got to move them up. Maybe. Maybe. All right.

Let's move through the biggest fallers. And we can go through this one a little more quickly because there are obvious reasons for four out of the five. Corbyn Carroll. He's dropped outside of the top 12 in ADP, but still very, very high, too high. if you ask me, Francisco Lindor down to 22.8.

Both those guys coming back from hamate bone surgery. I think my concern in ranking them both lower than that is just not that they'll miss a ton of time because I don't think they will. I think worst case scenario, it's a 10-day D-I-L stent and they're back shortly after that.

It's just, ideally, you want about 50 plate appearances to get ready for the start of the season. There's a piece by Jeff Zimmerman on fan graphs a few years ago about this. And guys who don't get those 50 plate appearances tend to go get off to slower starts. I just worry a little bit with the margin for error at these high-end picks is so slim. I just don't really see the point in taking Corbyn Carroll ahead of Fernando Tatis, given the injury.

I think without the injury, I'll take Corby and Carroll, but with it, it's close enough. I'd rather just take Tatis. Even Jack Sanjurio for me. Yeah, same. Like, if there were no worries for Carol, obviously Carol. But my worries don't go away even when he returns to the lineup, given the nature of this injury. And maybe he'll be fine and it'll be a great pick even at 12th or 13th or right at that one-two turn.

But I'm looking more at the two-three turn personally, which means I'm probably not drafting him. Yep. I think Carol's 22, Lendor's 20, Lendor's 25 for me. so I'm lower than the consensus on both. Josh Hader has dropped from 70.8 to 96.3. He's dealing with a biceps injury. Could be related to the shoulder injury.

He suffered at the end of last season. So very obvious. Blake Snell dropped from 86.3 to 128.4. Okay. I can be in on Blake Snell around that price. That's about where I've had him ranked for the most part. So yeah, that's fine. It's a little too far.

Okay. I have him 114. You know what? I don't know that I'd actually take him at 114 because there have been drafts where I've passed over Snell for a couple rounds. I did grab him in that and I'll only auction for $13. He was my most expensive pitcher there. All right. Ben Rice, we got a little bit of sanity.

46.6 to 51.4. Just don't love it as a top 50 pick. but I don't have him ranked much lower than that. I think I haven't ranked like 55th or something. He's so much higher on an FPC. Yes. And I'm sure this is where you're pulling the data from. And it's a low percentage of everybody listening plays on NFPC.

So I don't want to make too much of the Ben Rice's. Oh, yeah. It's such an obvious breakout candidate that he's actually going too high. Because I don't know that I agree with that on it, the majority of, of platforms. All right. The biggest risers from 100 to 150. I tried to limit these to five each,

but there were a lot of big names moving in this range. So I'll go through them all, and then we can kind of pick and choose the most interesting ones. Eh, Johanio Suarez, run 115 to 96. Not enough. Not enough. Zach Wheeler, 145, 149 to 135. I just don't,

that's one I don't really see any reason for. it you know like the price is fine i suppose it's just why why are we pushing him up we haven't seen anything from zach wheeler i got wheeler pretty low i've been i've been avoiding him he's not a target for me i have him 131 so i have him right there it's that might be too high well i haven't i haven't down where i have carlos rodon because i i think there's a good chance they'll come back at about the same time tables might be similar and to me it's it's sort of the same situation with Corby and Carroll where I worry much more about the guys who the nature of their injury makes me worry if they'll even be the same player. Corby and Carroll, if that's the case, I think

it'll be just short term where the powers a little slow to come back. But Wheeler might never be the same given the nature of this injury. And so, and then you add the timetable, you know, the delayed start, the possibility of a setback. I'd just rather not deal with it. Of course, there's all always a point where I'm willing to deal with it, but it seems well below the consensus right now. Chase Burns has risen from 129 to 115. He did have 10 whiffs on 40 pitches in his first recent start. The results weren't actually all that good, but the stuff is just so ludicrous here. I actually wouldn't have been surprised, though, if it went the other way.

Okay. Because they keep talking about it. Like, he's competing for the fifth spot. Chase Burns doesn't automatically have it. And he gave up a couple home runs in that start, didn't he? Meanwhile, Ret Louder, who used to be a pretty good prospect, I was never that excited about it. First round pick the year before Chase Burns, I believe. Yeah, I missed all last year, I think all of last year with injury.

But I was never that excited about Red Louder, but he has the pedigree, and I think he threw three shutout in his first spring start. And of course, Terry Francona had great things to say about him. It would be really upsetting if, if, Chase Burns didn't make the opening day roster, but I think there is a chance of that. And so that makes me want to be a little cautious. I've already had trouble drafting him,

and I want Burns because I think he's awesome. I'm just a little paralyzed with what to do right now. Hopefully I'll have a better idea as the big draft weekend approaches. All right. We've also got Emmett Sheehan went up about around. Noel McLean a little less because he was already starting high. just a lot of hype around these young guys, although Sheehan still seems cheap enough that it's worth taking the flyer on.

For Amber Valdez, he went up about a round. He signed. Luis Robert got traded to the whites or the from the White Sox to the Mets. He moved up about around. He still hasn't played in a game, although it's not, he's not dealing with anything specific. I think he's been working on the backfields. They're trying to, I don't know, the report was the Mets have a plan to keep him

healthy. Sure. Like, I don't doubt that the Mets have a plan to keep them healthy. I just, I don't have any reason to believe that the Mets are going to be any better at keeping Luis Robert healthy than the White Sox were. So I don't really get the move up there, but that's fine. And then Daniel Palencia, that's another one that makes perfect sense. He moved up about around.

Cubs didn't really bring in any competition for saves there. Craig counsel said he's the closer. Yeah, and he also, yeah, got the vote. I think Palencia hasn't moved up. enough. I think Framber Valdez hasn't moved up enough. And Suarez is the biggest one here. I mean, he's only moved up to 96th. He's only up to 96th. I'm 58th. All right. Biggest fallers from 100 to 150. And a couple of these make a lot of sense. Jordan Westberg, he hasn't fallen enough. He should be outside of the top 200, maybe the top 250 after being diagnosed with a UCL tear in his right elbow.

Jackson Holiday fell about 40 spots after his hand in. injury, Carlos Estevez, only a couple of spots. I think 105 is probably too high still. He's averaging like 86 miles an hour with his four seamer so far in spring, which there was something similar last year with his velocity, but he also, despite a ton of saves, the underlying numbers were pretty terrifying for Carlos Estevez. Decent chance he's just not very good. Yeah.

I probably need to move him behind Valencia. And his ADP needs to drop behind Palencia, too. Yep. Yep. I do I have Palencia ahead of him. I do not. I need to move Palencia up. And Trevor Story down a few spots.

That seems like noise. Alejandro Kirk down a few spots. We think he's overdrafted anyway, so we'll take any movement in the wrong direction. He's another guy in FPC is kind of an outlier for Alejandro Kirk. He's drafted more reasonably elsewhere. Yeah, he's the number 12 catcher in NFBC right around one. I have him more like 180.

I would take him basically after all the interesting catchers are gone. So Samuel Bessaya, who did have an injury scare this weekend, but he was back in the lineup. I believe he hit like 108 mile an hour double off the wall yesterday or today on Sunday. So that was good to see after pretty scary left the game on Friday, I think, with an oblique. So it was good to see him not miss much time.

I would take him over Alejandro Kirk, Carter Jensen all over Alejandro Kirk, Frances Gravarez, Gabriel Moreno, probably Kyle Teal even. I just don't see the point in paying for a high floor from Alejandro Kirk. Let's look at some big risers from the lower parts of the rankings, 150 to 250. These are guys who started in the 150 to 250 range and rose the highest. Kazuma Okamoto from 234 to 214. That makes sense. Everybody seems to like him a lot.

I'm still, it's so funny when you log on Twitter and see every fantasy baseball analyst hates Mutataka Murakami. And every fantasy baseball analyst loves Kazuma Okamoto. And yet Okamoto is still going behind him. I'm kind of surprised by that specific dynamic. I do have Murakami a little bit ahead, but they're very, very close. And I think they're, I think they're both inside my top 200. Oh, no, I do have Okamoto a little higher. Yeah, I definitely have Okamoto.

Okamoto higher. I don't think you have to, I have 149 Okamoto. I don't think you have to dig that deep on it. I mean, just look what the white socks gave Murakami. And there are some non-financial incentives in that deal. But still. No, no, I agree. But it's just.

He had to accept that from the white socks. And then meanwhile, look at what Okamoto got from the defending Yale champion Blue Jays. But Murakami, I do want to make the case. Just he can't be sent down without his consent, which is usually not something that you get when you first sign. That's usually I think you have to five years of service time, something like that. It's also not. It doesn't reflect a high degree of confidence in himself. Sure.

But also, he becomes a free agent after two years. He doesn't have to go through arbitration. That matters. He'll be 27 when he gets to free agency. I can see why he would settle for that contract. But yes, I agree. MLB teams thought Okamoto was better than Murakami. We should as well,

especially when there's not really any playing time questions for either. Mackenzie Gore moving up from 197 to 180. I think 180 is too low for Gore. I know Frank definitely agrees. Scott, I'm not sure about you. I don't agree. I think there's a lot more downside risk for McKinsey Gore than a lot of the pitchers.

You guys probably rank ahead of him. because I am 207. Yeah, I've got him 150. And I, you know, it's the same story. It's always been. I guess the only thing that changes with the Rangers now instead of the nationals, which maybe will lead to something, but it just seems like wishful thinking.

I am wishing. Thank you. Yeah, and I don't, you know, I've seen this movie enough times before. I think Gore could be really good, but he'll fake it for half a season and then end up with terrible numbers again. I don't know. not I'm not, I'm not, uh, I'm not eager to draft him. Shane McClanahan has moved up about 20 spots based on nothing so far, which makes me think,

man, if this guy's averaging 94 with his fastball on his first spring start, he's going to be like a top 150 pick. This is going to be, this is going to be this big, this year's big spring riser if he looks good at all. And I'm not going to be on board with it. Because the question for Shane McClanhan is not just, is he healthy now, which is all we right now is that he's healthy. The question is also not does Shane McClainahan still have good stuff. We might find that out on Tuesday, I think when he makes a start. But that's not the only question. Then it's can he stay healthy? And I just think there's enough pitching this year that I don't really, look, if he stays outside the top 200, it doesn't matter. The risk reward. But like, if we start

to see a whirl where Shane McLeanahan is pushed up into like the same range where Sandy Alcounter is being drafted or Gavin Williams or actually let's stick with those two because that's a guy you really like and a guy I really like I'd rather have both than Shane McClanhan even if we see a Shane McClanian who looks like pre-injury Shane McClainahan who was the one you really like Sandy O'Contra yeah I agree with both of those I'd still rather take them even even if things are looking great for McClainahan as good as he was there's so much injury risk there We also have Brian Walker moving up about a round. I think that's just pretty clear.

He doesn't have much competition to be the closer in San Francisco. And Matt McLean moved up a better round. I'm curious as to why he's so un like he's so cheap for a guy that everybody really, really liked. He was a top 75 pick arguably last year in a lot of drafts. So I'm not surprised to see Matt McLean moving up a little bit. I'm not sure there's anything there, though. any reason for it at least certainly not I'm not either I don't I don't know why he would move up it's cheap 2020 he wasn't far I think he was like 17 and 22 or something last year

so I think that's the yeah I don't have a problem with the price at 198 I haven't 194 so it's closer to where I have him but just why is he moving yeah I agree with that and then the biggest fallers a lot of these make a ton of sense Anthony Santander he's not going to play the first half of the season. Shane Bieber, I'm not sure we're going to get anything out of him, but if we do, it probably won't be in April. Jason Dominguez looking increasingly like the Yankees won't have room for him, although he is hitting well so far this spring. And I do wonder if there's, if we're, if we are taking a motivational tact a little too seriously, this is still a 23 year old big time prospect who is not guaranteed to be in the minors to

start the season. So he's down to 288 in ADP. I'll take that flyer on Jason Dominguez until it's clear he's not going to be on the team. And I think it's clear yet. Um, enough. Abner Uribe has dropped about 20 spots. This is another one that we haven't really gotten any concrete information that he's not the closer, right? Was he just maybe going a little too early before? We haven't gotten anything concrete, though it does seem like the beat riders are leaning more toward Miguel. And McGill's ahead of him now. I'm presuming McGill, though not with a lot of confidence. Okay, so he dropped, I was about to ask.

So McGill is now going ahead of Abner because it does seem like the fantasy analysts are gravitating more toward Abner. Yeah. Well, the rest of the world is gravitating more toward McGill. I think that's probably just Arriva had even better numbers. And I realized I called him Abner last time and now I'm calling him Arribi. But same guy. You're not a first name basis with him. I'm not.

It's just... It's Mr. Uribe to you. Yeah. True. So that may just be like, oh, look, he's better. Cream rises to that. But, you know, Miguel was really good, too. He was an all-star closer.

Esoc Paredes has dropped down to 216. That's one that, man, if they figure out the puzzle pieces to keep them in the lineup more often than we expect, there could be a lot of value for that. And then it's just like... Yeah. Also, what if Christian Walker's just bad? And they're just like, you know what?

Scurry. Isok Paredes. We're going to play you every day. I think that's possible Or Carlos Corre gets hurt Or 36 year old Jose Al Tuvae gets hurt Or 35 year old Christian Walker gets hurt There are ways is what I'm saying

For Isok Paredes to be a very big value Your Nauvarez gets hurt Shhh That would never happen I'm gonna end the podcast And then Tetsu Yama is actually down That one I just want to like It's only seven spots

But like why I'm surprised there isn't Like, I get a, I got a smaller contract than people were expecting. He was talked about as someone who was going to get like, I remember thinking him, he was going to get Framber Valdez money. And then he got about half of what Framber Valdez signed for. So yeah, yeah, not great. The projections like MLB trade rumors projection, I think is one of thinking of specifically, but pretty much all the projections were.

Yeah, Fangraphs had him for $100 million, too. About twice as much as what Tatsuya Imi ended up getting, which was kind of curious. But I like him. If he throws enough strikes, which he certainly did in Japan last year, but previous years it was an issue. If he does, though, I like the kind of oddball nature of his arsenal with the reverse-breaking splitter. No, I mean the reverse-baking slider and then also the splitter from. the left-handed side. Yeah, I think I'm higher than the consensus on him.

I agree. I think at the very least, the first turn through the majors could be very, very good. For Tetsui Amai, I think people are going to be surprised based on his price, how useful he is for fantasy. And that's going to do it for fantasy baseball today. For Scott, I'm Chris. We'll be back tomorrow with Frank Stample. and that'll be good. We'll see you then. Bye.

Paramount Podcasts.