Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Roki Sasaki Signs With The Dodgers! - Emergency Podcast (1/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 18, 2025

Roki Sasaki is signing with the Dodgers for only $6.5 million (1:33)! ... What are our expectations for Sasaki (2:35)? ... Where do we plan to rank Sasaki (5:20)? ... The Dodgers' updated rotation is stacked (7:42)! ... Sasaki's early ADP is inside the top-80 picks (9:18)! ... Where does Sasaki rank in dynasty leagues (12:35)? ... Are the Dodgers ruining baseball (17:00)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. The rich get even richer. How many times have I already said that this offseason? Welcome into an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Happy Friday, January 17th. I am Frank Stamphold, joined by Scott White, and especially happy Friday for Dodgers fans, because you have won the prize of Roki Sasaki.

This offseason's worst kept secret, we've heard the Dodgers, the Padres, the Blue Jays were finalists, But all along, there was suspicion that Roki Sasaki would be joining the Dodgers, and that is exactly what has happened. Sasaki will get $6.5 million from the Dodgers, and if you're wondering how this is possible, because Sasaki is just 23 years old when he's coming over from Japan,

he's actually subject to international pool money. He's not a true unrestricted free agent that just any player could throw any amount of money at, any team, excuse me, could throw any amount of money at, like Yamamoto was last off-season. So he is subject to that international pool money, and that's why you kind of see this lower amount. I mean, lower relative to other free agents, but obviously six and a half million is still a lot of money for us, Scott.

Sasaki is a 23-year-old stud pitcher at his best. He throws 100 miles per hour. He has a wipeout splitter. But he is young, Scott. He does come with questions. So for anyone who's just kind of learning about Roki Sasaki, they might be unfamiliar with his game. What should they expect?

and where do you plan to slot Sasaki into your rankings? Well, first of all, I want to touch on the financial point you made at the top there. And that's really why it's so disappointing for anyone who isn't a fan of the Dodgers. Because he couldn't just go out and seek as much money as he wanted, he was limited to the international bonus pool. Every team was on equal footing financially. The Dodgers didn't have that advantage. when pursuing Sasaki, and yet they got him anyway. And they didn't just get him, by the way, for this upcoming season,

but he's now under their control for the next six years, just like any promoted prospect would be, making a very low salary for the first three of those years and then entering arbitration thereafter. So the rich get richer indeed, because if they didn't already have enough advantages, now they have this incredible talent, cost controlled for the next six years at least.

And he has an incredible talent. He was kind of a wonderkind in Japan, was Roki Sasaki, who was clocked at triple digits in high school, was the first pick in their draft in 2019, I believe it was. And, you know, made a splash in the World Baseball Classic a couple years ago. From that point, it's really been a countdown when he would come over to the majors. And that day has a rush. I would say for fantasy where I'm looking to rank Roki Sasaki for this year is modestly.

Modestly. The excitement for him owes a lot to his youth, the fact he's only 23 years old. He's not quite a prospect, but he's not a finished product either. And I think part of the reason he was attracted to the Dodgers is because they are so good at things like development and pitch design and can, help to maximize those outcomes that maybe haven't been maximized yet. The most concerning thing note on his scouting report is that his fastball velocity was down last year. And like I said, he was reaching triple digits in high school.

So he's always had this incredible fastball velocity. The secondary characteristics on the pitch aren't so great. So when Sasaki doesn't have that elite velocity, the pitch plays down. becomes pretty hitable. And so a big goal here for the Dodgers early on is either going to be to improve the pitch shape, which is a taller task, or to regain that loss velocity,

which may have had to do with health. Sasaki missed some time last year with a shoulder issue. And so that may explain the drop in velocity. Now, does he need to have a great fast-based, to be a great pitcher. Probably not because his splitter is so good. Some scouts have described Roki Sasaki Splitter as the best in the world. You could find clips of it online, I'm sure, hardly any spin on the pitch.

So it just drops off, just disappears into oblivion as it reaches the plate. Nobody can do anything with it. And that's enough of a weapon on its own that maybe Roki Sasaki doesn't need to have amazing fastball. He's begun to mix in a slider a little more that that looks pretty good. So that would give him something else to play off the splitter and should be a big bat miss or any way you slice it. It's just how hitable is he going to be in between those missed bats. So I guess you want me to give an actual ranking for him. I haven't selected an exact spot for him, but somewhere in the 30s, I would say,

for Roki Sasaki, that would put him in the range of my own rankings kind of around like Justin Steele and Spencer Schwellenbach's in that range, other potentially high-end options who have concerns of one kind or another. And by the way, the concern for Sasaki isn't just how the fastball looks.

The Dodgers, the fact that he signed with the Dodgers, you could view that in a favorable light from a development perspective, from a win potential perspective. There are certainly pluses for Sasaki signing with the Dodgers, but a big, big minus is that the Dodgers don't really need him to get to the playoffs. they don't need him at all. And so they can handle him with extreme care in a way that would further diminish his fantasy value.

They have a surplus of viable rotation options already did. And just the way they managed Yamamoto, who was much more of a finished product last year, a lot of short outings there, a lot of time on the IEL. And I think we can expect that even more so for Sasaki. I'm not saying Sasaki will have asked, few innings as Yamamoto did last year, but I think it'll be a bit of a headache how much, how early they're removing him from starts, stretches where they maybe shut him down,

especially since he is coming over with a bit of an injury history. Yeah, I think all fair points, the upside, long-term, massive for Roki Sasaki. But the questions that you brought up, the fastball velocity being down, he dealt with an arm injury last year. He's never thrown more than 129 in a third innings in Japan. So some workload questions. And then the Dodgers part of all of this. Yes, he'll have run support.

Obviously, pitching for the best team in baseball likely. But I think also very likely that they will have a six-man rotation. So just to update everyone on what this rotation looks like, absolutely bonkers stuff. Shohei Otani,

not going to be ready for that first series in Japan in mid-month. March. I'm not sure that they ruled out opening day per se, but maybe shortly after that. Sometime in April, you know, if they really play it cautious, maybe it's like early May for Shoheyotani. But they also have Blake Snell, who they signed this offseason. They have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glassnow, hopefully returning from injury. Now they have Roki Sasaki and then throw in whatever other options. Bobby Miller, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Landon Nack. I'm sure Clayton Kershaw will sign a one-year deal at some point this offseason as well.

So many options. Michael Grove, Justin Robleski. Yeah. Yeah, plenty of guys who were making meaningful starts for them last year. Yeah. And this six-man rotation, I think actually from a pure baseball perspective and given the talent that they have on their teams, you know, Japanese pitchers who are used to pitching once per week, you know,

on six days' rest, whatever that might be. I think this makes a lot of sense for them. But it will undoubtedly limit two-start weeks for all of their pitchers. and just total volume, right, in terms of max starts throughout a season, where on other teams you might expect an ace to give you 32, 33 starts. For the top Dodgers pitchers, you might only get, you know, 28 to 30 starts, something like that over the course of the season. So just have to keep all of those things in mind when you want to draft a Blake Snell

or Tyler Glass now, who can't stay healthy anyway. You know, just keep all of these things in mind. Regarding Sasaki's ADP right now. So NFBC ADP in January for Sasaki is six. 78.7 as the SP 18. And the fact that he's signing with the Dodgers, I had to think there will actually be a slight bump, even to that.

Because, again, now that we have confirmation, you know, maybe if he went to the Blue Jays, maybe people would have been a little bit more hesitant, but he's joining the best team in baseball. So maybe even gets a little bit of a bump here. But as the SP 18 off the board, if that remains, Scott, it sounds like neither of us will wind up with Roki Sasaki

because, you know, just eyeballing my rankings, I plan to slot him in at SP 29, which would be just behind Spencer Schwellenbach, Sunny Gray, Bryce Miller, just ahead of Joe Ryan, Grayson Rodriguez, and around Pick 100 overall. So that's just kind of where I'm eyeballing things right now for Rokie Sasaki. Yeah, there's so much hype. There's so much sizzle there that people want to buy into. And signing with the Dodgers increases that. It increases the sizzle. He's going to the juggernaut organization. He's going to have all the great supporting cast to bolster his win total, whatever else. But I actually think I'd like him more if he signed with the Blue Jays or the Padres because

they'd need him more. They'd need to lean on him more if they were going to get where they wanted to get this year. And I think that's going to be the biggest issue for Sasaki from a redraft perspective. You said 29. I'm eyeballing it now. I'm thinking like 39, which would put him ahead of Brian Wu, Tanner Bybee. Shane McClainahan, Carlos Rodan, but behind Kodai Senga, Joe Ryan, Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Gallen. I think the workload is going to be, like I said before, a real headache.

And in a way that, you know, if we presume Yoshinobu Yamamoto or pick another Dodgers pitcher, Tyler Glass now, we presume they have workload concerns, well, we can trust they're going to be dominant with whatever anyings they give us. Roki Sasaki, he may be, but it's much more of a question in his case. So I don't want to just presume it. So that's my concerns about him. Those are my concerns about him from a redraft perspective. But because I'm sounding like a Sasaki downer here, you know, that's what you can expect from fantasy baseball writers. We try to keep it real. but I do like want to appreciate the moment too, the excitement of the moment.

And I will point out, okay, that's the redraft perspective for Sasaki. But my top 100 prospects just came out too, which is of course more long-term focused. Uh-oh. And Roki Sasaki is number one on that list, number one overall. That's where we were going next. So number one overall prospect for Scott in his top 100 rankings. Let's take a quick break. When we return, we'll talk about dynasty perspective

and what we're expecting long term for. Someone like Sasaki will do that right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Roki Sasaki is signing with the reigning, defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Upside sky high for those who play in Dynasty leagues. He's clearly the top pick in first-year player draft. So, you know, above the Travis Bazanas and Charlie Condens

and all those of the world, if you have a first-year player draft, please take Roki Sasaki first overall. As Scott said, before we hit the break, top 100 prospects just came out. They're live on the site. Make sure to go check those out. Scott, you have Roki-Susaki

rated as your number one prospect. And just a quick glance at fan graphs. They have 20, on the 20-to-80 scale, they have grades out for Roki-Sasaki's pitches. Right now they grade his fastball and slider as a 55 with a 60 upside. his splitter 80 out of 80, the top mark that you can get for a single pitch, Sasaki has already been given that by Fangraphs. Yeah, whatever that means, and I kind of laugh at it because I was, I've mostly been looking at baseball America. I've been, I've looked at a few scouting reports, but they're the ones I've looked at most frequently for Roki Sasaki, and they give his fastball a 70 grade.

There you go. The splitter also in 80. though. So like, crazy. There's no disputing the splitter. I think I'm a little more bearish on the fastball than baseball America as maybe I land more on the Fangraph side of that, 55, you said. 55 now with the 60 upside.

Yeah. Yeah, I think that's, I think that's closer to my expectations for Sasaki. Mm-hmm. The, we do have a projection for Roki Sasaki on Fangraphs right now, according to Steamer and other projections will come out, but this is the one that we have right now. They have Roki Sasaki for 26 starts, 148 innings, 320 ERA 1111 whip, 11.5K per 9. It seems like a really, really optimistic projection here.

And maybe he will get there. But again, and I feel like we have sounded like downers all podcasts. Like Roki Sasaki is an amazing talent, and I'm really, really excited to watch and pitch. I just wonder if the redraft ADP already and the hype will be too, high based on his range of outcomes, right? Like maybe Sasaki can get to this level right away, give you 150 innings of, you know, borderline SP1 talent, right?

Like numbers. But I think the downside, again, is, you know, kind of like we've pointed out, that the Dodgers don't really need him, and maybe he only makes 20 starts, and maybe he struggles, maybe he needs time in the minors. It's just like so many things we don't know. So that's why I think we're trying to kind of balance that of like, okay, we're excited about the pitcher, but for this season, We have to be a little bit more realistic.

Got to keep it real, Frank. That's what we do here. 148 innings, you said the steamer projection is? Yeah, 140. 320, ERA 111-11K for 9. The ratios sound feasible, plenty feasible, but I'll definitely take the under on the innings. Like you said, he's a under 48 would be a career high by almost 20.

Yep. And I think the Dodgers, even putting that aspect aside, what he's done before, I think the Dodgers would want to protect their asset, who again, just like any pitching prospect being promoted, that's how we need to think of this Sasaki signing is the Dodgers are promoting a top prospect, not the Dodgers have signed a big free agent.

Because again, he's 23, and he's under their control very affordably for the next six years. And so they're going to want, especially with the embarrassment of riches they have, the fact they'd probably win 100 plus games without them, they're going to want to protect that asset. And so I really don't think he's going to approach 150 innings. Yeah, through 111 innings last year in Japan did Roki Sasaki.

So I could see him getting anywhere from like 20 to 24 starts, 130 innings, something like that. I think that would be pretty fair to expect from Sasaki this season. And you know what, just kind of talking it through, I think I probably will drop him a little bit lower, or maybe somewhere in the mid-30s among starting pitchers for Sasaki this upcoming season. All right, Scott. You're even more of a downer than when we started.

I helped drag you down. There you are. So I think we've pretty much talked about almost every aspect here on Roki Sasaki. I want to wrap up, and this is something I've already asked you this offseason. But considering the moves that the Dodgers continue making, you know, they signed Blake Snell, they re-signed Hey, Oscar Hernandez, they bring in Roki Sasaki. Are the Dodgers ruining baseball? Because I have friends, like friends that are baseball fans, mostly Mets Yankees,

whatever, New York stuff. And they're up in arms. They're so upset that, you know, the Dodgers managed to pull this off again. And they seriously think baseball is broken. You know, it's just like whatever. Just one fans per, a couple fans perspective. Yeah. What do you think?

Well, I understand the frustration. And I'm frustrated too. it does feel like the Dodgers are getting preferential treatment by free agents at this point. It's not just a matter of who's willing to shell out the most. And that's frustrating. That's not really how it's supposed to work. But I will remind everyone that for as predictable as baseball is, over 162 games, like I would I would bet everything I have on the Dodgers making the playoffs

I would bet very little relatively speaking on the winning the world series they're the favorites of course but over three and four game samples baseball is wildly unpredictable yep and so we don't really know how things are going to play out yeah no I think that's well said the best team in baseball does not always win I mean there are so many things that happen throughout the course of the season it's a battle of attrition. The Dodgers have a lot of players that have extensive injury history. So we'll see what happens. I think very obviously they are the betting favor heading into the season as they should be. But anything can happen, especially in a small sample of games in just a playoff series.

So I do agree. It sucks for now. But you know what? They'll have a target on their back. Everybody will be coming for the Dodgers this season and everyone will be gunning to knock them out of the playoffs. So we'll see if they can get it done. We are going to round. wrap there for Scott, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be that back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.