Fantasy Baseball Today - Ronald Acuna's Injury Timeline; Early 2022 Outfield Rankings w/ Chris Clegg! (11/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: November 4, 2021We're joined by Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) to celebrate the Atlanta Braves World Series and talk outfield rankings! WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS (1:00). ... News and notes (6:00): Buster Posey is retiring and T...ucker Barhart was traded. ... Top-5 outfield rankings (16:10)! When can we expect Acuña back? Are we concerned about Mike Trout? ... Top-10 outfield rankings (28:09): all aboard the Luis Robert hype train. ... Top-15 outfield rankings (36:38): can Springer stay healthy? ... Top-20 outfield rankings (39:42): is Byron Buxton too risky? ... Top-25 outfield rankings (46:20): what do we do with Jesse Winker? ... Top-30 outfield rankings (50:22): Bellinger or Yelich? ... We wrap up with outfield prospects to know for redraft in 2022 (53:30)! 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
I drive.
Centerfield.
What is magnificent?
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
We are the champions.
We are the champions.
Welcome in.
Frank. We did it. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, November 4th. Frank
Stamphle joined by the champion himself. Scott White, and we do have a special guest joining us today,
who is also a Braves fan. But first, Scott, the floor is yours. I'm opening it up. The Atlanta Braves
are World Series Champions, 2021. Congratulations, my friend. Walk us through your emotions. How are you
feeling? How are you doing? Oh, gosh. You know, it was funny. They were interviewing plays.
after the game and they're all like, man, I don't know how to feel.
And that's kind of how I felt too, especially since, you know, the actual clenching game there,
7-0.
I mean, it was like the least dramatic game the Braves played the whole postseason.
So, I don't know, like just at, there are random moments where it hits me.
And it's like, wow, I can't believe that happens.
You wait 20, 26 years since the last one.
And like, among all my teams, that 95 championship was the only one of my lifetime.
So I don't really know what it's like for your team to win a championship, you know,
except for that when I was 11 years old, experiencing it that one time.
And so many close calls over the years, it's just, I don't know, it's great.
It's a great feeling.
Well, let's see what the Yig is.
could do now. I don't have very high hopes or expectations for next year, but forget about
the Yankees. It's all about the Braves. And it's all about our next guest that's joining us here.
And he contributes fantasy baseball content, both dynasty prospect related content over on
fan tracks. And you can listen to him on the fan tracks toolshed podcast. It is Chris Clegg.
Congratulations, my friend. You are also a champion.
Thank you so much for having me. I'm honored to join you guys. This is one of the first fantasy
podcast ever listened to when I first started playing fantasy baseball. And so this is a neat experience
to be on here. And you know, you guys and the podcast, the CBS podcast was a big reason I wanted
to start writing and producing content. And so it's a true honor to be here and to get to celebrate
the Braves World Series, not much better we could do. You know, I was only a year old when they won
in 95. So I don't really remember. You don't remember. You're Danesby Swanson's age. Yeah. So I didn't
know what was going on. And even in 99 when they, when they last win, you know, I had no clue what
was going on. So this is a great feeling. And so it's, you know, over the years, you know, a lot,
like you mentioned, a lot of talented teams that, especially last year, I thought last year was,
was the year. And then, you know, glad we were able to do it this year. It was awesome. And like you said,
I don't really know how to feel. Like those things, like, still smiling, still like just so happy
about it. And, you know, there's moments we're like, is this real life? Because this is the first,
time one of my teams do is won a championship. So it's very exciting. So you're, you're decked out
and your Braves gear. I hear the Braves fandom all over your
voice. And did you get that feeling in the first inning in the first inning when there was that
easy play, Michael Brantley, a light grounder, it should have been an easy play, but they just kind
of got Freeman and Freed both kind of got in between themselves and, you know, Brantley ends up
stepping on Freed's ankle and they don't get that out at first base. Like you got that here we go
again feeling, right? This is going to unravel. They're two, they're playing too tight.
And it's just going to, this is, this is the beginning of the disappointment.
Yeah, and it was a miracle that Frit's ankle was okay.
Like, how did that thing not swell up?
Like, how did he keep pitching?
And it goes back in his pump in 98th, the next step at.
Like, that was the fastest he had thrown all year.
It was just a miracle.
And it was just kind of meant to be, I guess, because I really thought it was going downhill.
So at least, like you said, it wasn't dramatic.
There was no kind of nerves at the end.
At least you didn't have to go through that.
We kind of cruised.
And, you know, it was a good feeling for sure.
And that's Solair home run.
gosh, that's going to live in my head forever.
The way he turns to the dugout, like, I got it, guys.
Yeah.
Oh, my, dude, watching that at bat from Saler, it seemed like, and I tweeted this out at the time,
like no matter what Luis Garcia threw in that at bat, it seemed to me like Jorge Saler
was going to destroy that baseball.
He was locked in.
Like, no matter what pitch Garcia through, it seemed like he was right there.
He was right on it.
So, yeah, I mean, that is an awesome moment for Jorge Saler, for Braves fans.
Hey, shout out to Freddie Freeman, right?
Like, he is the face of the Atlanta Braves organization.
Not going to waste time talking about, like, will he be back with the Braves?
He should be back with the Braves.
And I hope that he goes back there too, because obviously it's a great lineup,
and it's a great place from the play.
And, you know, the familiarity there with Freddie Freeman.
So shout out to you guys.
Shout out to the Atlanta Braves once again.
And just the moves that they made throughout the course of the season, too.
It's just like job well done.
Front off is down.
everybody contributing effort there by the Atlanta Braves.
By the way, on the podcast, outside of the Atlanta Braves,
we are going to talk about there's like a bunch of news going on,
a bunch of catcher related stuff.
We'll talk about that here up at the top.
And we do have Scott's 22 early, way too early,
top 30 outfield rankings that we'll talk about.
And then a few outfield prospects we'll wrap up with later on.
That you need to know in redraft, obviously Chris does a lot of work with prospects,
dynasty related content.
So we'll get his thoughts on those prospects later on in the podcast.
Let's start off with the news.
Lots of catcher news.
Buster Posey is retiring.
This really comes out of nowhere.
Seven-time All-Star, Rookie of the Year, MVP, three-time World Series winner, four-time Silver Slugger,
gold glove winner.
He won the National League batting title back in 2012.
There might be a Hall of Fame debate going on.
Maybe he doesn't have enough cumulative statistics, but I think, you know, you couple the resume
with the fact that he was the best at his position.
I say yes.
I say Buster Posey is a Hall of Famer.
Scott, it is Joey Bart time, likely to take over as the starting catcher for the San Francisco Giants.
How far do you plan on moving him up near catcher rankings?
So have you seen something semi-official?
Have you seen a comment from somebody within the Giants organization saying,
yeah, we're planning on turning the position over to Joey Bart now?
Or is that just your speculation?
Oh, that is 100% speculation.
Okay.
Because I'm actually not sure if he's,
is ready to step into that number one role.
He's had so many injury issues over the course of his minor league career.
Even last year, he only got, he got less than 300 of bats down there.
And he kind of hasn't developed into the hitter.
I think they were hoping he would be when they drafted him second overall.
Not that he's, you know, he projects to be a good hitting catcher, but it's kind of power-focused,
not very good plate discipline.
and I'm just, I could see them bringing in a veteran to bridge the gap,
maybe have Bart be the backup from the start,
maybe have him begin in the minors.
I do think at some point he will take over as the Giants Catcher next year.
I just don't know if it's going to be from the get-go.
And so I'm going to rank them a little bit cautiously considering,
probably still in my top 15 ahead of like Elias Diaz.
And if we do hear something more concrete,
like they're planning for him to be the opening day catcher.
Okay, move him into the top 12 at that point.
But for now, I'm going to say top 15 for Joey Bart.
All right.
Joey Bart last year in the minor,
294 batting average, 10 homers in 831 OPS.
Chris, what do you think about Joey Bart?
Would you consider him moving him into the top 12 at the position?
Maybe over someone like Gary Sanchez or Mitch Garver at this point.
You know, I'm not really ready to go there yet.
I'm kind of in the same boat as Scott with,
I feel like they bring someone in to bridge the gap.
I mean, we're talking about a team that just won 107 games.
And I don't think they go into next season with inexperience a catcher.
I think that's a big spot for him.
And we really saw how those pitchers developed this year.
I'm not sure if he's ready.
And even still with the big AAA season, he's still struggled with contact.
He had just a 67% contact rate in AAA last year.
We've seen strikeouts be a big issue throughout the minor leagues.
And so those things do concern me a little bit.
I think he could use some development.
He will be 25 next year, though, which is interesting.
So how much more seasoning can he use in AAA? Not really sure. Also, I don't think it's beneficial for him to kind of sit on the bench of the Major League Club. So it'll be interesting to see what they do. I think that either they bring someone in or he as a starter. But until there's more concrete news, I'm not ready to put him in the top 12. Yeah, catcher prospects are so interesting in that way because you're right. I mean, he is stepping into a team that is expected to be a contender. And especially for a catcher, you've got to be able to handle an entire pitching staff. And there's just a lot more thrown at you than.
than really, I guess, any other position where a prospect is being called up.
So really good points there on Joey Barr.
We have more catcher news.
The Tigers acquired Tucker Barnhart from the Cincinnati Reds,
and they plan to use him and Eric Haas as a catcher tandem,
which, Scott, I believe this completely crushes Eric Haas's value.
I don't know about completely.
He can play the outfield, and I don't think it'll be,
you know, I could see him getting 40% of the starts behind the plate.
it could crush his value if the inconsistent playing time
and being a high strikeout, like an excessive strikeout guy,
if he just, it causes him to hit 150
and they have no reason to play him anymore.
That seems like a possible outcome for Eric Haas anyway.
But I'm not so inclined to move him down in my rankings.
I do think Tyler Stevenson moves way up.
And remember when we did the catcher recap
and talked about my top 20 or whatever it was
at the position for next year.
I had Tyler Stevens in 19th,
but I said, you know,
if something happens to Tucker Barnard,
if he moves on,
and we find out Tyler Stevens
is going to be the main guy behind the plate,
he's going to move way up.
And so that's where we are now.
I think he probably does enter the top 12.
Between him and Alejandro Kirk,
Travis Darno,
those guys are right at the end of my top 12.
And I'm thinking,
I'm thinking Stevenson belongs ahead of both.
I don't think his numbers,
he had a near 800 OPS.
I believe it was the,
I believe only five catchers had a better OPS than him last year
and one of them is now retired.
So, you know, really good season.
I don't take those numbers exactly at face value.
Obviously, the bats were somewhat limited
and he doesn't hit the ball as hard as you'd expect him to,
to have that kind of number.
I know he outperformed his expected stats
according to stat cast.
So I do think
Stevenson isn't quite as good
as he showed this past year,
but I do think he's top 12 caliber
at the position.
Tyler Stevenson hit 286 with 10 homers
and a 797 OPS in 132 games
this past season.
He made some starts at first base
when Joey Votto was dealing with injury.
So that's how he gets all the way up to the 132 games.
You know, maybe with the National League DH,
he could play even more
if they want to keep his bat in the lineup. Chris, what do you think? Tyler Stevenson or
Joey Bart, who would you rather have next year? Yeah, I'm more inclined to go with Stevenson,
just because I think he's had more seasoning in the major leagues. And, you know, I think the power's
still coming. You know, he saw the solid hit tool. He has good contact skills as well. He had a
83.2% contact rate last year, and ends on contact of 91.4%. So very high ranking there.
I think people are pretty quick to knock his power. And, you know, we look at the exit velocities.
They weren't great.
Like the max EV wasn't there.
But as a prospect, like he's shown the capabilities to hit for power,
even though we haven't seen a ton of the home run power yet.
I think there's more in there.
And I think he's capable of getting to 17 or 20 home runs,
which I think is pretty serviceable at the catcher position.
And now I think he gets plenty of opportunities.
There's no one really blocking him.
He should get the bulk of playing time.
So I think top 12 is definitely there for him and easily over bar for me right now.
Yeah, that would be more than serviceable.
If we can get 17 to 20 home runs with a batting average,
that doesn't completely sink you at the catcher position.
We could be talking about, yeah, I don't want to overstate it,
but, you know, maybe even like top 10, top eight at the position
when things are said and done.
But we've got a long way to go before we actually finalize any catch rankings here.
We had lots of options being declined in baseball the past couple of days.
As expected, Nick Castiano's declined his $16 million player option
and will become a free agent.
Avicel Garcia, who just finished as a top 30 outfielder in Roto,
declined his side of a $12 million mutual option with the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Phillies declined Andrew McCutcheon's $15 million option for 2022, making him an unrestricted
free agent.
And Yusay Kikuchi declines his $13 million option, which does come as a surprise because I'm
not sure that he'll make more than that annually somewhere else, but we shall see what happens
with Yasei Kikuchi.
A few pitching former prospects, kind of still prospect notes here with the Blu Kyi.
Blue Jays, Nate Pearson recently underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia.
He's expected to be ready for the start of spring training.
And he was really good down the stretch.
It was, you know, small sample size, 12 and 2 thirds innings in September.
But 284 ERA, 134 whip, 20 strikeouts to seven walks.
Chris, I'll throw this one your way.
Do you think Nate Pearson is in the Blue Jays starting rotation next year?
I'm not totally sure yet.
I think it'll be interesting to see what kind of moves they make.
though I do think that he plays better out of the bullpen
and I think he could be an elite closer for them.
I know that's probably not the popular opinion
and most probably prefer that he is a starter,
especially if you've had him in Dynasty leagues.
But I think he could be an elite bullpen option
and we kind of forget how valuable those type of players could really be.
I think his stuff plays best there.
I mean, he's basically a two-pitch guy with the four seam and slider,
but they are both elite pitches and I know those can work for a starter.
But I do think that the appeal there for me,
be out of the bullpen and maybe even see him in a closer role.
So it'll all depend on where the Blue Jays go.
I know they have several impending free agents and they could use some, you know,
steady starting pitchers.
But it'll be interesting.
I think they're going to give him a chance to start,
but I still think he's bullpen long term.
Man, you know, in Scott White's Dynasty League,
I have Nate Pearson and I traded away a $31,
Julio Reyes, which, look, it's getting up there in salary.
He's still very good for a $5.
Nate Pearson.
And honestly, I don't feel great about it right.
now. So we'll see. We'll see what Nate Pearson can do. Along those same lines, Tony
LaRouc said Michael Kopeck is determined to make it as a starter next season. He
definitely could have some breakout appeal for fantasy baseball purposes. And then
Royal's President of Baseball Operations, Dayton Moore said,
Adelberto Montesey will have a different training regiment this offseason in an attempt
to keep him healthy next season. I don't, what are they going to do? Put him inside of a bubble.
I don't know what they're going to do to help him out. But I don't know. Fingers crossed. We'll see.
Zach Ranky will not return to the Astros
but does plan on pitching next season
prefers a National League team
before we get to those outfield rankings
this Sunday week 9 of the
NFL on CBS features an
AFC North matchup in Ohio
when Joe Burrow and the Bengals battle the
Browns along with key interconference
clashes between the Raiders and
Giants and the Chargers heading to the city
of Brotherly Love for a meeting with
the Eagles get set for the action
on the NFL today at noon Eastern
that's all coming up this Sunday on the NFL
on CBS. Scotty Dubbs, way too early.
2022 outfield rankings. They are live on the site,
CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. You can check them all out there.
You can follow along while we talk about them. But let's look at the top five at the position.
Fernando Tatis, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout.
Two names in particular that we did not talk about on the recap that I want to hit on here.
Ronald Lucuna and Mike Trout, obviously. Ronald Acuna tore his ACL on
July 10th, which makes the championship even that much greater, I think, that much more
impressive, because you lose one of the best players in the sport, you still manage to take it
down. That is awesome. And you gained in the standings after losing it. Like, they weren't in a
playoffs position when he went down. Yeah, it was basically the culmination of Jorge Saler, Eddie
Rosario, Jock Peterson, and Adam Duval. Like those four players combined to like equal Ronald
LeCune or maybe even exceed him, I guess.
But, man, again, job well done by them.
A reasonable recovery for a torn ACL for athletes recently has been nine to ten months.
That brings us to April or May for Ronald Cunia.
And he recently said that he's on track to return in May.
There was a video that surfaced.
Alex Bregman met up with Ronald Cunia before the World Series started, asked him,
you know, how you're doing when are you expected back?
And Ronald Cunia said, May.
Derek Rhodes, does great work.
On Twitter, you can follow him at D.
R-H-O-A-3.
And he collects injury data for baseball perspectives
and recently pointed out that Twins prospect Royce Lewis
tore his ACL back in February.
It's now November.
He's still not running at 100%.
So we're almost at nine months there for Royce Lewis.
Everybody's different.
But Scott, it seems like you have been
on the more optimistic side here
with Ronald de Cunia all along.
You're still ranking him all the way up
at the top of the position and overall.
I'm a little bit more worried.
I don't know that we see Ronald de Cunia before May.
Well, I have to admit, I didn't see that video you saw.
So this is the first I'm hearing of Acuna himself saying he's aiming for May.
And if that's the case, if the player himself isn't even pushing to be back by opening day,
then I probably need to move him down some because he's probably not going to be back before May.
And that's kind of what I was waiting for was some sort of indication that, like,
my thinking was, okay, assume he's going to be ready until you hear he's not going to be ready.
And so that's how I was ranking him.
So let's do this live.
Let's say Ron Lucanian's out till May.
How much would you lower him in the rankings?
Okay.
So...
Yeah, put you on the spot.
Until May.
So he's missing 16% of the season.
Well, got to move him behind Juan Soto.
For sure.
Feel like moving behind Bryce Harper,
but maybe keep him ahead of Mike Trout.
I was thinking slotting him,
slotting him right in between
Betts and Tucker? I don't know if that's moving
him too low. You're moving down even further?
Yeah.
I think the lowest you can move. I have Tucker
at number seven currently, so you move
Acuna behind him, Tucker becomes number six,
and Acuna is between
Tucker and Louise Robert. I think that is
the absolute lowest I would move
him down, but I'm going to have to look
at this some more.
Yeah, that's...
Because, you know, if he's aiming for May, any kind of
setback pushes it into
June and then you're talking about missing a third of the season.
Yeah. And he's coming back from a torn ACL. We don't know, like, this is someone who usually
runs wild on the base paths, right? So we just don't know.
You're killing the buzz here, Frank. I'm sorry. Well, look, you guys started it because, like,
you know, you poo-poohed my Joey Bartlove a little bit earlier on. So, Chris, I mean, look,
you guys are both brave fans? You follow the team very closely, obviously. How are you feeling about
Ronald Cunia? Would you use, let's say, a late first or an early second round pick on him next
here. Yeah, I think I would
be willing to go there on him. And
you know, I've remained optimistic this
whole time. Maybe it's a little bit of bias.
It's a Braves fan. And every athlete
is so different, as we've mentioned. I mean,
there was a wide receiver for Clemson
who two seasons ago
tore his ACL and played in game within
four months, which I know that's a freak
of nature thing. And we can't expect that
from a Cooney, obviously, at this point,
he's within four months of
that. I know
we've heard May, that would be
the given timeline.
I'd really like to see when he starts baseball activities,
and that's projected in January.
So hopefully we have a better idea then.
But right now, I think that 120 games would be a reasonable projection, I think,
if he comes back in May.
And you have to figure we have to give him some time in May to get back to full strength.
I do think that his leg will be stronger than ever.
He may be faster than he ever was.
He's still a young athlete, but I do wonder if he attempts less steals early on in return.
I think that's a big part of his value in fantasy is that he is capable of stealing so many bases.
And you know, by July, you know, we may have normal Acuna back, but early on, I am a little hesitant about how much he will run.
And I've also read about his being, so the legs, which one matters for a hitter.
And it being his back leg for him in the batters box also has had a negative.
of effect on hitters for batting average the following season.
So that'll be interesting to track too.
And I know everybody's so different and everybody recovers differently.
But Acuna is such a freak athlete.
You know, he'll just be 24 years old in December.
I think we can expect him to come back strong.
But I do think we have to be a little bit weary of some missed time.
And I think that maybe May 1st, May 15th is probably reasonable.
But again, how much are we going to get out of him early on that first month?
And I think that we have to think about that and factor it in.
But I do think he can be a lead.
enough the rest of the season to warrant a late first and early second round pick.
Yeah.
Yeah. I'm totally thinking about this on the fly and I don't want to belabor the point here.
But, you know, my optimistic view ranking Akunia initially was, okay, I'm expecting to see him in
spring training, to perform in spring training.
Nobody's worried about him anymore when opening day comes.
And, you know, we don't really think about the knee again at that point.
But if he's not, if we don't see.
see him playing, you know, it's just this, it's just this date out there and the ether that we're
aiming for. And we don't really, we're not really able to see that he's okay. I mean, we did,
how many injuries got timelines got pushed back this year? I mean, it was, it was a horrible year for
that. We're about to talk about. I'm just afraid. I'm starting to get scared. I'm getting scared,
Frank. Halloween was last week's guy. No reason to be scared. I think, I think, I think you've turned me
from an optimist to a pessimist here just in the last three minutes.
Well, look, you have to think about it like this, too, right?
Like, there are a few wild cards up top in drafts this year.
It's going to be Tatis, who says he's not going to have shoulder surgery.
He played it through it this year.
He was still really, really awesome.
But I think that's in the back of our mind.
We're about to talk about Mike Trout, who I think is probably going to be drafted in a similar range as a Kune.
If we're talking about late first, early second round pick.
And then on the pitching side, Jacob de Grom.
Like, we have to see DeGron pitch.
We have to see something, some semblance that, like, his arm isn't about to
fall off before we draft him or at least use an early round a draft pick on him.
So it's going to be a unique season in terms of that, that we have all these wild cards
up top at the position.
And let's talk about Mike Trout right now.
He was one of these players that continued to have setback after setback after setback.
He was diagnosed with the calf strain in mid-May, and he was given a six to eight-week
timeline.
That means he should have been ready to return by mid-July.
You want to go late July, even early August.
That's like the absolute latest.
He did not return at all this season.
I found an article on the athletic.
This was posted in late September
where Trout said he's quote
close to 100%, if not 100%.
And here's what else he had to say
about the injury.
Once I talked to the trainers
and talked to the front office
and made the decision
to shut it down,
I kind of took a little bit of time off
and then I started doing things again.
I started running.
I started working out.
I'm feeling great.
I don't feel it at all.
That's late September.
He's got months,
four, three, four months, basically before he ramps up baseball activities now.
Outside of that, the guy has missed a ton of time.
Since the start of 2017, he has missed 33% of his games due to injury.
He's 30 years old.
Chris, where are we at on Mike Trout at this point?
Yeah, I think he's a tough one to really evaluate because we know the talents there.
I think he's still the elite hitter that he always has been.
From a fantasy perspective, I think we probably shouldn't have much expectation
for him running.
I think maybe five stolen bases would be encouraging from him this year.
And if we got more, I think it'd be fantastic.
I think it'd just be, you know, anything moving, anything like that moving forward would be great.
I think he's still capable of hitting 300, 40 home run potential.
I'm not questioning the eliteness of the bat.
Even without the stolen bases, I think he's a second round caliber player in a 12 team and maybe even second rounder in a 15 team.
And, you know, I don't know.
I think if he got that range, like a.
back in of a second round, I'd be all over him because I think that with this time that he's had
to rest, that he should be 100%. I know he's been injured and beat up, but I do think the reason
that he didn't return this year was probably from the standpoint of they just didn't need him.
Like, what's the point in bringing him out and risking more injury if they're not contending?
They're not going to make the playoff. So why risk it?
So hopefully he'll be back 100%. And even if he gave us 140 games, I think that production
that he could give is worth a late second round pick.
All right. That's interesting.
because you're hoping for late second round.
How I have him ranked here is slotting Trout late in the first round for me.
So if you're drafting with me, you're not going to get in all likelihood.
Yeah, I mean, obviously the steals are off the table,
which is why he's not in the top five discussion anymore.
Not an outfit, but overall top five.
Yeah, I don't really work.
Like, it's a calf, right?
I mean, it's annoying.
It sometimes can take longer to recover,
but after a whole off season,
like this isn't going to linger, I don't think.
Tell that to Josh Donaldson, Scott.
Come on.
Yeah.
The thing with Trouttson is it hasn't just been the calf, you know?
It seems like he's always dealing with something.
I don't know if there's anything to that, right?
It's like you're injury prone until you're not.
If he goes out and plays 150 games next year,
we're probably going to look at him as, you know,
a mid-first round pick the following year.
It's just these things can be fluky,
and I realized that.
It was also a very small sample size.
He only played 36 games this past season.
He had eight homers, two steals.
That's a 33 homer, eight steel pace, over 150 games.
And again, like, small sample.
But the strikeouts were up quite a bit.
The ground ball rate was way up.
It's too small to mean anything.
And like, the overall production was still amazing.
I mean, I approach Mike Trout,
like he's still the best hitter in the game
when he's able to play.
You know, and yeah, there have been some past injury that have limited his playing time.
It's kind of become a trend.
But there wasn't, there hasn't been an injury in his past prior to this calf injury that made us think not worth drafting in the first round anymore.
And so I don't think this calf injury should be the, be what changes everything.
And I do agree with you.
I think when he's on the field, he is probably, if not the top hitter in the game.
He's like top three, which I think he's.
helps him in points leagues, right? He just walks so much and he's going to have a high OBP and a high
OPS and he's going to score run, so on and so forth. The steals, I mean, it obviously knocks him back
a little bit in Roto, so keep that in mind. Let's move on to 6 through 10 in the outfield rankings
for next year. We have Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, and this is where Ronald Lucuna might slot in
somewhere around here. Luis Robert, Cedric Mullins, and Stirling Marte. Let's start with
Mookie Betts here. We talked about him a little bit at the end of our last podcast. He had a
downseason, but still had 23 homers.
and 10 steals in just 122 games.
That's a 28 homer 12 steel pace over 150 games.
He also had the lowest babbitt since 2017.
He did all of that while playing through a hip injury.
Chris, do you still think that Mookie Betts is a first round pick?
Scott had him at pick 13 in his early two-round mock,
so he's like right there at the cutoff.
Yeah, I think I'd be really happy if I got him at 13.
I'd probably be willing to go around the 10 range on him,
just because one, there's so much talent above them.
The talent level in that top 10 is really good.
And Betts has all the talent to easily be in there.
Maybe the injuries give us some concern with a hip injury.
But I do think that he's first round worthy.
You know, it was his first full season in L.A.
He was banged up with injury and was still solid.
As you mentioned, the numbers were still good.
It was his lowest bang average since 2017.
And even despite that, he's still a career 296 hitter.
And I think he bounces back.
I think he's a 3015 type threat.
who can hit 290.
And I think that's very, very valuable.
You mentioned in the Dodgers lineup,
and you look at a lot of runs in an RBI opportunity.
And I think that that's certainly worthy of a first round pick.
And he's consistent enough to.
Even in a down year,
he's been pretty consistent.
That's kind of what I'm looking for here in my first pick.
So, yeah, I'd be more than happy to take him at 13.
I think I'd go around 10 range on him.
Yeah, he has such a high floor.
He scored 93 runs in 122 games.
with a hip injury.
I mean, that is, that's massive.
And now we're going to have Trey Turner
over the course of a full season here
with the Dodgers too.
So I don't know how they construct the lineup next year
if they want to do Mookie Betts lead off
or Trey Turner lead off.
Either way, he's going to be near the top.
He's going to score a ton of runs.
And maybe the RBI you project, you know,
75, 80, nothing crazy there.
But yeah, runs.
Home runs should still be solid.
You know, 10 to 15 steals.
I think that's probably a fair projection
at this point for Mookie Bets.
That's what concerns me.
That's why I rank him outside of my
first round is because there
usually comes a point.
Obviously, we've seen it for Trout.
It's not like Trout is slow now.
The running
just doesn't seem worth the risk anymore.
And I'm worried that
I'm worried that this hip injury,
though I'll have it corrected
in the off season. I think it's going to be fine.
I don't think he's going to hit 260 again.
I think that was all part of it.
But I worried that that's going to be
what causes him to run less finely.
The Dodgers don't like to run.
They don't really need to run.
He was 10 out of 15 on steals this past.
year.
And if Buki Betts isn't a base stealer, you know, you look at the power, it's closer to
Trey Turner power than like Mike Trout power.
It's on the lower end of the power production from first round caliber hitters, right?
For sure.
So, yeah, I mean, I don't have a big problem with somebody taking them in the first round still,
but I'm thinking as high as the floor is, the ceiling might be limited by first round standards as
well. That's fair. The early steamer projections have
Mookie Betts for a 272 batting average, 30 homers,
112 runs scored, 81 RBI, 17 steals.
I would probably knock a few off the home runs and steals personally.
Maybe it's 28 homers, 13, 14 steals. It's still a very good player.
But yeah, maybe not the massive ceiling that we've seen from Mookie bets in the past.
Luis Robert, all aboard the Hype Train, baby. 338 batting average,
13 homers, six steals,
in only 68 games this past season
lowered his strikeout rate tremendously
from 32% in 2020
to 20.6% this past season.
Line drive rate was way up.
His XBA, his ex-slug were all amazing.
He was 99th percentile in max exit velocity,
73rd percentile in sprint speed.
So great athlete.
He hits the ball hard.
He can run.
He's 24 years old.
Scott, I think everything is right there
for just this massive breakout.
I just, I don't know that I could count
Luis Roberts to stay healthy over a full season
just because I haven't seen it yet. That's like my
only concern with him.
Yeah. And
so did we skip Tucker?
We just, we're not going to talk about Tucker?
I thought you were talking about Tucker for... No, no, no, no.
No, I mentioned Kyle Tucker
is in these, in this
part of the rankings, but we talked about him
on the last podcast, got, so. Okay.
I wanted to give Luis Roberts. I was just, I was just
making sure when you didn't overlook him, because I
do have a man of Robert. And
and it's several
when you combine the positions, it's several spots between them.
I don't really see Luis Robert going before,
or I don't see myself taking him before the end of the second round.
When Tucker, I could see somebody pushing him into the first round potentially
because he does feel like a much safer bet for batting average specifically.
But as much as Louise Robert improved his strikeout rate from year one to year two,
I mean, it went beyond my expectations.
I'm not sure I ever imagined him striven.
checking out as infrequently as he did in 2021.
So that really changes my perception of what he can be.
And I think there's top five overall upside here.
Fair to discount him because it was over a small sample,
and his BABIP was out of control.
I don't think we're going to take the 338 batting average at face value.
But if he's a 290-300 hitter with 30-30,
potential or maybe even like 40-20 potential.
Yeah, I mean, that's obviously a hugely impactful player.
Chris, how much are you buying the improvement in strikeout rate from Luis Robert?
Obviously, we're not expecting 238, but maybe we can get 280, 290 somewhere in there for Luis
Robert?
Yeah, I think it's definitely reasonable to think.
And you look and there's tangible change in that process and we see the contact rates
soar this year.
I mean, he went from having in 2020 the worst swinging.
strike rate in baseball by a decent margin at 22.1%.
And he dropped that at 11.1% this year.
His contact overall rate went up from 61.4% to 73.6, which still isn't great.
But I mean, that's a huge improvement.
And his own contact jumped all the way from 74.5 to 86.4%.
We also saw him hit more line drives.
Again, it was a smaller sample, but line drives are definitely more conducive to a higher batting
average.
And so that's another reason we saw that tick up.
And I think that if there's any player that can challenge Fernando Tate's upside from a fantasy perspective,
it's Luis Robert.
And Scott mentioned it.
I think there's easily 30-30 potential there and maybe even more power.
So, you know, he could, if all comes together right, I think he could challenge even that top spot with Tatees.
Oh, man.
I am trying to fight back a smile right now because I'm very excited to draft Luis Robert.
Oh, man, I think I'm going to be, I think I'm going to be very, yeah, I'm going to be very high on him.
mid-second round.
Is that too high on Lewis, Robert?
I don't know.
But yeah, I think I'm going to be somewhere in there
for him next season.
Let's take a quick break.
When we return, we'll take a look at 11 through 15
in Scott's Outfield rankings next on Fantasy Baseball today.
All right, so let's continue on 11 through 15.
In the rankings, we have Whitmerfield,
Aaron Judge, Yurdon Alvarez, Teoscar Hernandez,
and George Springer.
We spoke about really those, we didn't talk about Merrifield.
You could listen back to our second base recap,
and we talked about him there.
But we talked about Judge Alvarez and Teosker
on our last podcast.
I want to talk about George Springer.
So Springer hit 264, 22 homers,
four steals in 78 games this past season.
That is a 42 homer,
seven steel pace over 150 games.
The problem, like Mike Trout,
Springer seems like he's always dealing with something.
He's missed 25% of his games
since the start of 2017.
Scott, I think he has big upside in that lineup
and that division.
Like how confident.
Are you that Springer could even play, I don't know, 130 games at this point?
Well, I'm confident he could.
I don't know that he will, obviously.
But if you could say the same for Aaron Judge, who's ahead of them.
You could say the same for Jordan Alvarez, I think.
I think this whole cluster has a lot of injury risk.
Maybe not to Oscar Hernandez, but his, you know, I think there's regression risk there.
obviously not as much as I was concerned about coming into this year
kind of proved himself twice over now
but still he's the least proven of this group I would say
yeah I mean I think Springer is my 15th outfielder
I think there's more upside than downside at that point obviously
or else I'd rank him even lower let's see
like in terms of to use head-to-head points per game
which, you know, isn't a perfect comparison,
but it's an easy comparison.
3.64 is what George Springer averaged this past year.
Kyle Tucker was 3.51.
Yeah.
So obviously we're still talking a second round caliber bat
if all goes right here.
Yeah, he was better than Shohei Otani
in fantasy points per game.
He was ahead of Muki Betts.
He was ahead of Luis Roberts.
So yeah, I mean, it's just a matter of him
staying on the field,
especially with that lineup. It's just massive.
Chris, what do you think about Springer?
Do you think that he should be high names like Aaron Judge and Yordon Alvarez?
Yeah, I think that's fair, definitely from the standpoint of that he just hasn't stayed healthy.
I mean, he hasn't played 140 games since 2018, and we saw Judge play 148 this year,
and we know the judge is a big injury risk, but he showed this year that he could stay on the field.
And Yorda, I think, has put some of those concerns with his knees behind him.
He played 144 games, even saw him play some outfield in the field.
the, you know, in the World Series, you know, maybe not well, but he did show that he can move
around enough to play some outfield, which was good enough. So, yeah, I think it's fair. And even
T Oscar, like at this point, I'm, I'm pretty much buying in to what he's done. I think that,
yeah, I think you're right, Scott. There will be a little regression. But if he plays enough
games, he's easily going to surpass Springer because Springer hasn't shown he can play 140 games. So I think
it's a fair spot for him. All right. 16 through 20 in the outfield rankings. We have
Byron Bucson, Eloy Jimenez, Nick Castell-Marté, and J.D. Martinez.
And you might be noticing a common theme here.
Outfield is loaded with talent, but lots of players who have dealt with injuries as well.
And Byron Bucson is no stranger to that.
He was finally putting it all together this season.
306 batting average, 19 homers, nine steals, and just 61 games.
That's a 46 homer, 22-seal pace over 150 games.
So just an absolute massive, massive, massive breakout.
for Byron Bucksson.
The problem is he hasn't played more than 87 games.
He's only played more than 87 games once since 2017.
So, Scott, let's say you have to use a round five or six pick on Biron Bucson this upcoming season.
Is it one where you can only do that if you feel safe, I guess, quote unquote, safe about
the early round picks you used before him?
I don't know.
I don't know that I'd go that far.
I don't know, maybe I'm, maybe I've enlisted
to Chris Towers too much, but I'm kind of,
I'm kind of not wanting to go overboard with the injury risk,
especially when the talent is this high.
And I mean, the talent's first round level for Byron Buxton.
And I don't know about you, but I was particularly encouraged
by what he did in September.
Because remember when he missed the time with that last injury,
which was the last injury that he had.
It was a broken...
Yeah, it was actually a fractured hand,
which he suffered by getting hit by a pitch,
which is not his fault, obviously, so...
And he first came back from that,
and he looked awful.
He looked like the Byron Buxton
we'd seen in previous years
where the production didn't live up
to the talent level.
But then at September,
he had 283 with nine home runs,
four steals, a 966 OPS.
So, like, he finished as strong as he started.
And, um...
I mean, that went a long way for me to saying,
okay, this is legitimately who he is now,
and that's first round caliber.
And so if I can get that in round six,
I mean, I don't really care what I've drafted up to that point.
I'll take that.
I'll take that.
Yeah.
And I want to move on to Eloy Jimenez here, too,
because I think he's a unique player
because he does not provide any speed,
but he's just ahead of names like Nick Castiano's and J.D. Martinez,
where I think all those guys kind of do similar things,
where if it all breaks right,
they can be elite four category contributors.
Eloy probably not going to score that many runs
because he doesn't walk very much.
But Chris...
I'll just say this is the point
in the outfield rankings
where it got really hard for me.
After Buxton,
slotting Eloy Jimenez's 17th here.
I initially had Jimenez like 23rd or something.
So it got really tough here.
Yeah, and I think what's so tough
about ranking Eloy Jimenez is he's still so young.
I think the upside is massive.
You know, we've seen already
a 31 home run.
season in 2019. He had 14 homers over 55 games in 2020. So obviously that's a massive pace.
And he did that with a 296 batting average. But then this year, he comes back from the torn peck
injury and he only hits 249 and he has a 740 OPS. He still hits way too many ground balls.
Like that's the biggest issue for Eloy Jimenez. Chris, where are you at on him? Are you okay
with him being ranked ahead of guys like Nick Casinos and J.D. Martinez? I think it's fair.
I think they're all in that same tier. I think like we mentioned, they could all
do pretty similar things if all goes right.
But I do think there's probably a little more downside in Eloy.
And I think for Castianos, it depends on where he lands.
I mean, he had pretty dramatic splits home road.
So we know that he's not going to be back in Cincinnati, most likely.
I know he's opting out there.
So it'll be interesting.
I think that he's one that could drop a lot depending on where he goes.
And J.D. Martinez, too.
I mean, he had a great start to the season and then kind of tailed off a little bit.
So I think with Eloy, I think there's some betting on some more upside here.
Again, he's just 24 years old.
He'll be age 25 season next year.
And I think he's shown, especially in the minors, he's shown a good feel to hit.
Haven't really seen that as much.
The contact skills haven't been great at the major league level.
And you mentioned the ground ball rate, like pretty consistent near 50%.
He's 49% for his career.
And that's just a little high.
You want to see a power hiter like that definitely hit more fly balls because his home run to fly ball rate is crazy high.
needs to hit the ball in the air more often.
And if we see that, I think that we definitely see the home run totals tick up.
Wouldn't be surprised if he's like a 270, 30 home run type hitter, which is pretty serviceable.
And I don't know, like you mentioned, this area just gets kind of murky where there's a lot of question marks on a lot of guys.
So I do think it's fair because I think we probably haven't seen the best from Eloy yet.
And we've probably seen, we definitely seen the best from J.D. Martinez.
We've probably seen the best from Castiano's as well.
So I'm fine with that.
And I'm willing to bet on the upside here.
Yeah.
Look, I know Vladimir Groreau, Jr.
He's probably listening to this podcast.
Can we have him call up Eloy and just kind of tell, you know,
let's share whatever he did, you know, raise the launch angle.
Let's get rid of those ground balls.
A few more line drives, some fly balls.
We do that.
Well, I just want to point something out to you,
and I know you're probably anxious to move on.
But what convinced me to move Oloi Jimenez up to 17th,
partially gray from Rasbalt talked me into it.
But if you look at his numbers, just leave out 2021,
because it was injury plagued and it was just kind of weird.
But 2019, 2020, Uly Jimenez hit 276 with 45 home runs and an 848 OPS.
It's 177 games, so little more than a full season, those two combined years.
But not that much more.
I mean, he's already kind of proven as a 40-homer guy, not even just 30 homers.
We haven't seen it over the course of all full season yet.
So that's another thing that we have to keep accounting for here.
But he's kind of, no one's won't.
Soto, but the batter ball profile, when you hit that many ground balls, you can maintain a high
home run to fly ball ratio if you are hitting the ball as hard in the air as you, Scott, what's going on
here? Is that you? Do you got to run? Yeah, I might have to check on this. All right. It's a good thing.
This isn't a live show. No, no problem here. You can, there you go. What's up, buddy? How you doing?
Totally not going to edit any of this out. Scott, you can go handle your business. I'll talk with
Chris in the meantime here. I was just kind of blabbing about.
Eloy Jimenez. Anyway, the point is for Eloy, when you hit the ball in the air as hard as he does,
you can maintain a high home run to fly ball ratio. That's how Juan Soto has been able to do it
the past so many years, as long as he's been around. So we are up to, I think it's 21 through 25
here in the outfield ranks. Yeah, Jesse Winker, then Brian Reynolds, Tyler O'Neill, Kyle Schwerber,
and John Carlo Stanton. And Chris, Jesse Winker, a lot like Byron Buckson, not the same power speed
profile, but just in terms of he has huge upside, just cannot stay on the field. Winker has not
played more than 113 games in the majors. And he had a great year this past year, still awful against
lefties. That's really the only knock on him. But even with that 305 batting average, 24 homers in,
I think it was like 112, 113 games. So are you buying Jesse Winker? Or are you worried about these
injuries? Yeah, I love him as a player. I think that this is who he is. Like he's a very
solid feel to hit. I think he's shown consistently the ability to hit near 300. And even if he
hits 28, 290, I think that's going to play. And I think the power really coming out this year was
telling. And obviously, I think some of this factors from playing in Great American ballpark, which
is fine. But we know he's going to be back there next year. If we know he'll be playing
in that stadium. So I expect the power to stick to an extent, but he just has to stay on the
field. And we know those intercostal strains can linger. And hopefully by next season, you
know, he's fully healthy and over that.
But that can certainly affect power.
And that's a concern.
If he has a full season, then I think we could have a great season out of them.
And I think the upside's there.
Again, he's like a little older breakout.
He's 28 years old at this point.
So it's not like he's still a young breakout type player.
But I do think that the abilities are there.
And I just worry about the ability to stay on the field.
And that's an important factor, obviously, for fantasy.
Yeah.
And I do.
I worry about the.
the counting stats, the runs, the RBI,
if there's no Nick Castellanos in the lineup,
that definitely could affect Jesse Winker here.
Scott, I'm going to ask you, how's everything going?
We're good, Scott?
We get everything's right?
Yes, yes.
What constitutes an emergency for kids
does not constitute an emergency for the rest of us.
I probably should have muted it as I walked away.
That's kind of amateur stuff for communicating over the internet like this.
But anyway, I'm back.
It's all right, Sky.
We're not going to knock any points off of your fantasy.
see broadcast level meter
wherever you rank on that.
I'll ask you about Kyle Schwerber here.
Is it legit? That's basically it. I want to ask you,
is Kyle Schwerber legit? No juice ball this year.
No problem. 266 batting average.
32 homers and 113 games.
We all remember, I think it was that June, right?
I think it was June? Was June or May?
Anyway, like just massive, massive month.
Career high 928 OPS.
Expected numbers, fully support.
Kyle Swarber? Scott, are we buying it?
Is it legit?
I think it's mostly legit.
Yeah, I mean, it wasn't, it was even better than that breakout 2019 season he had with the Cubs where he hit 38 home runs, 871 OPS.
But it wasn't, it wasn't, you know, it was, I think, I think more than anything he proved his 2020 was illegitimate.
When he hit only 188, 7.1 OPS, obviously short season, all the weirdness, you know,
We didn't really know what to make of Schwerber coming off of that.
But he picked up where he left off in 2019 with the monster power production.
He continued to prove against left-handed pitchers to the point that no matter where he signs,
I'm confident he's going to be an everyday player.
And I think in the end there may not be, I don't want to overstate this.
I could see him and George Springer's numbers looking similar.
if, you know, even assuming good health for Springer.
I can see them both hitting about 265,
hitting between 35 and 40 homers,
getting on base a lot.
I could see that outcome for Kyle Schwaber,
though obviously it would take a lot going right.
26 through 30 in the rankings,
we have Mitch Hanigar, Randy Arosurana, Chris Bryant,
and then those two.
Yeah, those two.
Cody Bellinger and Christian Yellich.
Obviously, Scott, you have Bellinger ranked higher than Yellich,
so I assume that you would draft him ahead of Yelich.
Chris, you're up.
Cody Bellinger or Christian Yelich?
You can't say neither.
I know, it's so tough.
It's so frustrating with both guys,
how they just fell off so hard.
And, you know, at least with Yelich,
there seems to be a pinpoint reason.
And he's kind of gone back to being that ground ball hitter
that he was prior to his breakout.
But even in 2018, when he hit 36 home runs,
he still had a ground ball right.
above 50%. So it's doable.
But in 2019, when he had the MVP season at 44 home runs, 30 steals, he had just a 43% groundball rate.
So there was clear change, hitting way more fly balls.
And then this year, or last year, sorry, back up to 50.8.
And then this year at 54.4%.
So it's kind of discouraging to see him go the wrong way.
Strikeouts ticked back down.
I think his strikeout rate in 2020 of 30.8% was kind of fluky, just small sample size type.
things. I just don't know what to do with Yelage completely. I don't know. He could go either way.
I mean, we could see him go back to being the fly ball hitter. He could easily correct this.
Or he could just keep hitting the ball on the ground and we get nine home runs over 475 plate
appearances. It's hard to say. And with Bellinger, I do think that there's a higher probability for
rebound. He's younger. We've seen the high end caliber. And that's true with both of them.
But we saw Bellinger kind of turn it back on in the playoffs. I mean, he was doing some
damage against the Braves.
That ball he hit out against Luke Jackson was a ball that no one had a business
hitting out of the park, and he did anyway.
So I do think that he rebounds to an extent.
I don't ever see him being that MVP caliber again that he was in 2019.
But even still, I think he rebounded to be a 30 home run bat pretty easily.
And I think the bad in average obviously ticks up from 165.
His Babbitt this year was just 196, which is crazy love for a player of his speed.
So I do lean Bellinger here, but I'm really having a tough time.
with both guys evaluating like, who are they?
Yeah.
And to illustrate why they're, because it's, you know, it's easy to think, okay, this is only
my top 30.
I'm just sticking Bellinger and Yellich at the end here because they're big names, you know.
But I really do think this is the appropriate spot to gamble on the upside that we know
they possess because 31 for me is Austin Meadows, who, you know, hit under 230, was sitting
against left-handers down the stretch.
32, Tommy Edmund, 33, Dalton Varsho.
He mostly drafting for his catcher eligibility.
34, Robbie Grossman, 35, Hunter Renfro.
Like, there's clearly a drop-off between Randy Arosurena, Chris Bryant,
and then that group that I just referred to.
So that's why I'm slotting Bellinger and yell at Shear at 29 and 30.
We're going to wrap up with a few outfield prospects to know for 2022 redraft.
Obviously, Chris, this is your wheelhouse.
You do a lot of work for fan tracks regarding prospects and dynasty value.
So I'm going to throw a bunch your way.
You can talk about it for like two minutes.
Are you buying back in on Jared Kelnick and or Jaron?
That's question number one.
Do we see Julio Rodriguez next season?
And then question number three, who contributes most next season out of Riley Green,
Brendan Davis, and Alec Thomas?
Go.
All right.
So Kielnick, I think I'm buying back in on
to an extent.
You know, I thought the floor was a little higher, but we shouldn't really be surprised by
his struggles.
A lot of guys last year struggled.
And I think, you know, Frank, as we talked about before the show, I think that a lot of
that had to do with 2020 being weird for minor leaguers.
There was no season for them.
Now, some guys would tell you that the alt site was really good for them and some would
say it wasn't.
And we had a lot of guys that, you know, especially these international players that had
to go back home and play on these random backfields where they got no instruction, like
professional instruction. So it was hard.
With Kelnik, he's made some tangible changes.
He adjusted the swing late in the season.
You saw some production uptick.
It wasn't great by any means in September.
It hit 248, but even still, it was much better than what we saw from most of the season.
And we saw the power speed in him.
So I do think that he'll be an intriguing pick.
I don't think you should expect a high batting average like we did see in the minor
leaks from him.
I think he's probably more of like a 260 type hitter, but the power speed is hard to pass up.
And so it depends on where he goes if I'll buy him.
And Duran, I think we completely overrated to an extent.
The power in AAA was massive, and that was the first we had seen of that.
And the Red Sox did a good job of displaying what they were doing at the alt site.
And we even saw the power at the alt site because of the swing change and where he moved his hands to.
But AAA power was up across the board.
So I don't think he's this big power guy.
We know he's got a decent hit tool and speed as well.
But I don't even think Duran is in the lineup to start the year.
I think he'll be back down on AAA for some more seasoning.
I could be totally wrong on that.
But I'm not really buying in redraft as much on Duran, but I do think long-term he will be okay.
Is there anything you guys want to add on those two?
No, just that I'm going to tell your colleague, Eric Frost, what you said about Jaron Duran.
He's probably going to be very mad at you.
I don't know.
I think this is kind of a broad point to make, but is related to Duran.
I think I feel like I'm at a point where I'm going to have a hard time of value
power because of the new ball.
And one thing I've noticed going through my rankings here for the new year is like,
if you're not somebody who averages, generally speaking,
if you're not somebody who averages 90 plus miles per hour in terms of exit velocity,
like your power output might not be that great with the new ball.
That's the big thing I've noticed is like exit velocity seems to matter more.
And Duran was 89.6, so technically below, but not that much below 90.
39.7% hard hit rate. That's not very good.
We're also talking about a small sample, very first taste of the majors.
But, yeah, I think it's possible he may not impact the ball quite hard enough to be a real power hitter,
especially in a park that's kind of tough to hit it out for left-handed hitters.
All right. Chris, those final questions.
Do we see Julio Rodriguez next year?
And who do you think has the biggest impact of Riley Green, Brennan Davis, and Alex Thomas?
Yeah, I think we definitely see Jayrod.
He'll be extremely young.
He turns 21 in December, but he's elite.
And you mentioned guys that hit the ball hard.
And Julio Rodriguez hits it really, really hard.
He posted a max exit Velo.
I was able to find out of 117.4, which would have been eighth best in major leagues this year.
So he's got massive power.
he's got a phenomenal hit tool
and he's willing to run
even though he's not the fastest player
he wants to steal base like he has that mentality
that he is going to steal and I'm not expecting him to be a huge
contributor there but if he steals
eight to ten bags that's just icing on
the cake for him because he's got massive
power and incredible hit
tools I've mentioned so yeah I think he's kind of the
the Jared Kelnick route where he comes
late May early June
it also depends on what happens with the CBA
I think but we could see him later
could see him earlier that that's definitely
dependent
So, yeah, J-Rod's one that I think is worth a late stash in deeper leagues just because the upside is so tremendous.
And I think his hit tool floor is higher than Kelnix, in my opinion.
So the struggles shouldn't be as big in the majors when he comes up.
Between Green Davis and Thomas, I think that Riley Green probably has the biggest impact of these.
And I honestly think he's better than Spencer Torkelson.
And that's kind of becoming more of a thing.
but I haven't ranked above Tork in my latest prospect rankings.
Green just turned 21 years old, so he's younger also.
So it'll be interesting to see how they want to handle him.
But he did make it to AAA last year between double and AAA, 24 home runs, 16 stolen bases,
and a 301 batting average in 124 games.
He was supposed to be out in the Fall League.
Unfortunately, he had a concussion.
So digging it to see him there was hoping to get to see him live.
But I think Green is turned into an elite bat.
And he's always had the hit tool.
And now that the powers come along to, which is something always,
always look for in prospect. I'll see him with a hit tool first and then the power come along.
That's exactly what we're seeing with Riley Green. So he's probably like a midseason call up and he makes a
pretty solid impact because there's not a lot blocking him in Detroit. I'm not sure exactly when we
see Davis or Thomas. Thomas may get the most playing time of any of these in the majors,
but I do think that Green probably has the most impact. All right. Music to my ears,
Alec Thomas, another name on my dreadful Scott White Dynasty League team. So let's see if we
we can see him sooner. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see what happens.
towards something. You know, you always try to like prop me up and cheer me up about my team.
It's, I don't think it's very good, but I don't know. We'll see. Time will tell. He is Chris Clegg.
He provides fantasy baseball content, dynasty and prospect related content over on fan tracks. You can
listen to them on the fan tracks toolshed podcast. Make sure to give him a follow on Twitter as well
at Rodo Clegg. I realize we actually have pretty similar Twitter handles. You know,
you're Rodo Clegg. I'm Rodo Frank. There you go. We appreciate you coming on here.
and congratulations once again to your Atlanta Braves.
Yeah, well, thank you both.
It was a real honor to join you
and I'm going to talk some outfielders.
It was a fun episode.
So again, thank you guys.
I really had a good time.
All right, for Scott and Chris,
I haven't said that in a while
because Chris Towers hasn't been here,
but we did have the Welsh town last week.
Anyway, for Scott and Chris,
I am Frank DeGil for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today.
We'll be back again on Tuesday.
Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.
