Fantasy Baseball Today - Roto/Categories Strategy! Brendan Donovan Traded to the Mariners! (2/3 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: February 3, 2026Before we get to the strategy talk, Brendan Donovan was sent to the Mariners in a three-team trade (3:50). ... Will JJ Wetherholt be up on Opening Day (10:10)? ... Let's get into H2H categories strate...gy talk (17:08). ... How should you construct your lineup in H2H categories (26:43)? ... Which hitters gain value in H2H categories (31:30)? ... Should you punt in this format (38:41)? ... What changes in daily lineup leagues (45:00)? ... Let's talk Roto strategy (50:48). ... How does draft strategy change in Roto (57:10)? ... What are your category targets in 12-team Roto leagues (1:04:48)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
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Get ready to win your lead.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Strategy Week continues.
Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday.
February 3rd.
I am Frank Stample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
today on the show, All Things Categories.
We have head-to-head categories,
five-by-five roto strategy.
We'll talk a little daily lineups as well.
And we had a three-team trade
that sent Brendan Donovan over to the Mariners.
More on that a little bit later on.
Guess which team was involved in the three-team trade?
So I saw a stat that since the end of the 20-23 season,
there have been seven three-team trades,
and the rays have been involved in six of them.
Totally tracks.
I feel like they're just lurking.
They're just like, oh, you guys are doing a trade?
Oh.
You guys got any trades?
You need a third?
We can get Ben Williamson.
Well, that was the funniest thing about this trade is as the details were coming out,
they kept being like, okay, here's what's going to the Mariners,
and here's what's going to the Cardinals, and here's what's going to the Rays.
And every new report was like, but the Rays aren't giving anything up.
Right.
And it was like, there's an old tweet that was like, love this trade for the Rays.
Who'd they give up?
What'd they get?
And, yeah, that's how I felt watching this one.
It's seeming like they're that guy in your fantasy league.
You go with a simple request, you know, hey, do you have any interest in this guy?
And the trade just expands beyond anything you can even wrap your head around.
You're just like, never mind.
I feel like you're sub-tweeting me.
I feel like this is something I might have done before.
I mean, I'm sure I've done it before, too.
Wait, what's that guy?
You want to trade me, Sal Stewart in the Dynasty League?
Is that what you're saying?
He's blocked now.
He's blocked.
Yep, up, yep.
Eh, Henry of Suarez.
Sell him now while you can.
You know what?
I was going to save it for later.
We're already this far into it.
Let's just talk about the trade, and then we'll get into the strategy talk.
The three team trade, the Mariners received Brendan Donovan.
The Cardinals received three prospects pitcher Gerangelo St.
I believe that's how he say his name.
He was the switch pitcher.
Now it sounds like he's just going to focus on right-handed pitching.
That's what they said in the Mariners organization.
I guess the Cardinals could change their mind on that.
And two outfield prospects, Ty Pete Colton, Ledbetter,
plus two competitive balance round B-picks.
The Rays received third baseman, Ben Williamson.
Donovan, good bet for batting average, career 282 hitter.
But doesn't do much else from a Rotolique perspective.
He is a better head-to-head points player for sure.
2.8 fantasy points per game last season.
he has second base eligibility.
Sounds like he will gain third base eligibility as well with the Mariners now.
Scott, what do you think of the landing spot here with Brendan Donovan?
I mean, it could be better.
Obviously, Seattle's not the best place to hit.
There are roughly 29 other better landing spots, I'd say.
Surprisingly, Team Mobile is actually a little bit better for left-handed power than Bush Stadium, but overall park factors.
We're not expecting power.
You know, normally when we talk about park factors, we're talking about how it affects the player's power.
and Brendan Donovan, that's not really his strength.
His strength is, well, in Roto Leagues, I mean, he's a help in batting average,
not like a Louisa Rye's level help, but a help.
And then in points leagues, that's really where Brendan Donovan shines
because he hits a lot of doubles, he has good walk and strikeout ratios.
So neither of those you would think are impacted by the park.
And if anything, going to a bigger park can help a player like that
because there are more spots for his not so far-hit balls to land in the outfield there.
But Chris made a good point when he was updating the off-season tracker with this move
that Seattle Park Factor is the highest by far for strikeouts because of that problem certain hitters have had seeing the ball there.
Clearly it doesn't affect everybody.
and maybe
John Donovan won't be affected at all
and he'll be exactly the same player
perhaps with a little more batting average potential
but if it does affect him
if his strikeout rate rises
then his batting average is going to fall
and then he's going to lose a big part
of what gives him any of his value
not that he's especially valuable anyway
but he does have some late round value
again especially in points leagues
yeah his ADP is around 300
right now and I think that's
I don't think that's likely to go up much
And I think he's a fine late round pick.
If you need batting average help,
the problem is, as Scott said,
Bush Stadium is over the past three seasons
the fourth best park for strikeouts for hitters.
And Team Mobile Park is the worst.
You've got a 91 park factor for strikeouts at Bush Stadium,
a 117 for T-Mobile,
which basically means you strike out 17% of the time more in Seattle.
Now, the problem is it's a significant.
But the problem is one, it doesn't affect everyone equally.
Two, how much of that is do the Mariners pitchers pitch differently away from home
because they know that it increases strikeouts and then it kind of continues to increase
strikeouts?
It's hard to disentangle these things.
But the problem for Donovan specifically is he is so batting average dependent on.
having any value.
And if he goes from being a 285 hitter to a 275 hitter, it matters.
You know, like that's just because he's on a pretty narrow edge anyway.
But I still think the price is good enough that he's a fine late source of batting average.
It's just you can't rely on it quite as much now post-trade as you could have when he was with the Cardinals.
Yeah.
As of this recording, the trade hadn't officially been announced.
I think it just once.
Okay.
Do we have any, like is the plan for Brendan Donovan to play third base for the Mariners?
That's my assumption, which means he'd be picking up eligibility there, which make him a little more useful.
Second base is weak too.
But, you know, you could play second or third base, particularly in deeper leagues like the 15 teamers.
That would make Brendan Donovan even more interesting.
But, you know, we'll have to see.
I mean, Colt Emerson, they're.
top hitting prospect, who's a shortstop, is his primary position, but that's filled in Seattle.
So there's been some talk about him potentially making the opening day roster, perhaps where
Brendan Donovan winds up, will depend on if Cole Emerson secures a job at third or second.
I don't know exactly where the Mariners would be trying him out.
But Donovan has that versatility, and it may come into play again now that he's with the Mariners.
Yeah.
And I haven't seen that confirmed either, but my assumption was,
that it would be third base,
and this will probably put Cole Timerson off a little bit longer.
I think it was a long shot for him to be on the opening day roster.
It's even longer now.
I think the organization still likes Cole Young quite a bit,
and they probably want to see what he can do at second base.
They still have JP Crawford, who's, you know, a fine major leaguer.
He's an okay, you know, for whatever he does for that team.
I think he's fine, obviously.
A couple other things on Donovan I wanted to mention here.
40 career home runs.
According to Stackcast, this would be 48 if he played all of his games in Seattle.
So, again, it's like maybe the batting average comes down a little bit.
Maybe there's a slight upticking power, you know, 12 to 14 home run, something like that.
You mentioned the ADP the last two weeks.
It's 312 behind Ernie Clement, Willie Castro, Lenin Sosa.
Sosa, we don't even know if he's an everyday player right now.
Yeah, I don't think he is at this point, yeah.
I feel like that should probably come down a little bit,
and maybe Donovan moves up a little bit.
And I think it's a lineup upgrade.
I think he could wind up leading off here for the Mariners, Brendan Donovan.
So if he does that with Cal Raleigh, Julio, and Josh Nailer hitting behind him,
that's a pretty good spot to be in for Brendan and Donovan.
So we'll see.
They still could go with Randy or Rosarena lead off,
but something will probably learn more throughout spring training.
Some of the fallouts got you already mentioned, Colt Emerson.
I think, again, it'll take a little bit longer for him to make it to the Mariners,
but I do think we see him at some point this season.
For the Cardinals, one less person in the mix,
and I think that makes it even more likely that their top,
prospect, J.J. Weatherholt should be up on opening day.
Theoretically, they could play Nolan Gorman at third and Thomas Sejacy at second if they want to.
But I think there's a pretty good chance JJ Weatherholt is up on opening day.
I mean, that to me is the biggest part of this for fantasy.
I think Weatherholt, who should have been up last September, I mean, he mastered the upper miners.
And even with the Cardinals infield surplus at that time, it was surprised to me,
Weatherholt didn't come up just to get his feet wet, just so he's not thrown into the fire at the
start of 2026. But I think now with those two moves, Aeronado gone. Okay, they like Gorman,
still. Fine. Clears the spot for him. But now with Donovan also being on his way out,
like to me, Weatherholt, among the prospects who have yet to debut, he now becomes the most
likely in my mind to make the team ahead of Carson Binge, ahead of Eighty-Haltz. Ahead of ETH. He,
even Justin Crawford, I'd say, because there are some questions about how Crawford's
skill set will translate to the majors, how good whether he'll provide enough defensively for
a playoff-bound team for them to take that risk at the start of the season. I think Weatherholt's
the most likely. I would say both Weatherholt and Crawford are 90-plus percent chance to be
in the opening day line. I agree. There's a piece in the athletic today, today or yesterday about
Crawford working on his defense in center field.
He's been working with Eric Davis,
former Red center fielder.
I just,
the Cardinals have fallback options
if they don't want JJ Weatherhold in the lineup.
I don't know what the Phillies fallback option
would be at center field if it's not Justin Crawford
is the big thing.
But I think both of those guys should be drafted
in pretty much all league should be, you know.
I think it's just slide Brandon Marshall for it.
Yeah, but they still have, they don't really have a good left.
Castiano's on the bench.
Yeah, well, and it sounds like he's gone at some point.
It hasn't happened yet, but it will.
I mean, I don't really, Crawford, you know, that's obviously its own discussion.
But my point is just like, it's time to get excited about Weatherholt.
I had felt a little bit stuck in early mock drafts with the prospects.
Because there are so many that have been floated as,
potentially making the team so many high-end prospects.
And it's just like, well, I know I can't draft all of them.
So I kind of don't want to draft any of them because I'm afraid I'm going to waste the spot on the wrong one.
And you see that in the ADP, too.
None of these, there's not a lot of enthusiasm for any of them yet in drafts.
But I think there should be for Weatherholt now.
I think this move distinguishes him.
You know, maybe Crawford's in the same boat, but the point is Weatherholt is now somebody who needs to move way up the shortstop rankings.
and he'll be multi-eligible, great plate discipline.
The launch angles a little iffy, but, you know, he generated good power with it in the miners.
It's really special hit tool should steal some bases as well.
17 and 23 last year as a cross double A and AAA.
Yeah, and that's in 4008 at bats, I think it was.
So, yeah, really impressive talent and somebody who's going to be in the rookie of the year mix, for sure.
JJ Weatherholt's ADP the past two weeks at the NFB.
is right around 265. So it'll probably move up a little bit. I mean, how high if you just,
you're talking about short stops. Connor Griffin is all the way up at 193. Ezekiel Tovar at 207.
Otto Lopez at 219. I mean, does that sound where, sound like where Weatherholt should go?
Should he go higher than some of those names? Right now, I'd rather have him than any of those guys.
Obviously Griffin, if he's going to make the team, would be higher than him. But right now, based on what we
know, I think 200-ish sounds perfect for Weatherholt.
That's where I'm moving him in my rankings as well.
So, yeah.
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Let's take a break.
We'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
Strategy week continues.
We're talking categories today.
And let's start with head-to-head category strategy.
And I know more people play in this format than we think.
We get lots of emails and tweets and people reminding us often that they do like this format
quite a bit.
And a lot of them are daily lineup leagues as well.
So there are, we'll start at the top.
There are two different ways to play head-to-head categories.
Head-to-head one win, where if you win the week six to four, seven to three,
whatever it might be, you get just one win in the standings or head-to-head categories.
If you win six to four in week one, your record becomes six and four.
If you lose four and six in week two, your record is 10 to 10,
so you just keep adding on to your record over the course of the season.
Do you guys have a preference?
Chris, I feel like you have a strong preference on this.
I remember.
One win.
It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile.
Winning is winning.
That is Dom Torretto.
I base all of my life decisions on the words of Dom Torretto.
Family is the most important thing.
And it doesn't matter if you win by an intro mile, winning's winning.
You never had me.
You never had your car, et cetera.
A hundred percent, that should be the way you play.
I don't care if, like, oh, I won't see.
64, that's a win.
It doesn't matter.
You know a walk-off win where you win by one?
Counts as a win in the standings.
And I don't understand this.
Like, oh, we got to, I don't want to decide the playoffs on run differential.
Get out of here.
You want to win.
Get out of here with this 6-4 nonsense.
I mean, I guess a counter to that would be if you play in a head-to-head points league,
how much you win by and how many points you score actually matters.
So I guess in a head-to-categories league, winning 10-0,
is more meaningful than winning six to four.
It matters for, like, tiebreaker.
Tie breaker, but you don't get extra point.
Like, you still just get a win for the week.
Yeah, but it matters to some extent, right?
I guess.
Sure.
You can do that as a tiebreaker if you really want.
All right.
Here are some other rules from the Yahoo standard head-to-head categories league.
Daily lineup league, 20 innings pitched minimum per week.
We have 27-man roster, so one of each infield.
position, three outfielders, two utility spots, no corner, no middle.
We have two starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, and then just two pitchers.
So that allows you to get a little bit weird with your pitcher construction, however, you
want to set that up.
And then there's five bench spots and usually four IL spots.
The standard five by five categories, batting average runs, home run, RBI steals for
hitting, and then wins, strikeouts, ERA whip saves for pitching.
But as we talked about yesterday, people like to change up categories.
like to add categories, they like to use different things, which I totally get. It's your preference.
You know, play however you want to play. Do you guys like to play with those categories? Or is there
anything that you prefer instead of, you know, some people like quality starts or innings
pitched instead of wins or saves plus holds instead of saves? What do you guys think about that?
I am fine with the traditional five by five categories. I understand the arguments for doing
OBP instead of
batting average
for doing total bases
instead of home runs
for doing
quality starts instead of wins
for doing saves plus holds instead
that's probably
that's probably
my favorite change of them
saves plus holds instead of saves
just because
it allows me not to care so much about
relief pitcher
because it's
it's such a cop out though
it feels like getting rid of a tight end
in fantasy football
it is it is and it kind of reduced
what it does is it kind of reduces
relief pitcher from the importance of tight end
to the importance of kicker
so it's
yeah
but it's nice not to have to worry
about it so if
it's nice not to have to worry about it
the position where there's
so much volatility
and where every time you invest in it,
you're mainly just chasing that one category,
it feels like you're diverting from something more important,
but you have to do it because saves are going to run out.
So it's just an unfun part of drafting.
So I'm not saying it's my preference necessarily,
but I think if I'm going to change one of the traditional
five-by-five categories,
it's that one just for the sake of sanity.
The arguments for the other changes,
quality starts instead of wins,
OBPs instead of batting average, total basis instead of home runs.
It's about awarding a wider spectrum of things hitters do.
Or more reflecting real life value.
Or more reflecting real life value, prioritizing stats that we've come to decide are more important
than the traditional stats and determining how good a player actually is.
I just think, I don't know, I just think there's something too traditional.
And a lot of those ways that are maybe more precise in determining how valuable a player is are kind of built in across the five categories.
For example, a high OBP guy is going to do better in runs.
So there isn't a need for it.
But ultimately, I'm not going to be that.
you know, if playing OBP instead of batting average makes you happy, it's fine with me.
It does kind of narrow, narrow the player pool, I guess, the usable hitter pool in a way I don't prefer.
There's an art, I think, to balancing the traditional five-roto categories.
But ultimately, like, I think the idea that, like, quality starts are better than wins.
I think that's silly.
That's the most difficult to justify, especially since pitchers are less and less going six-ended.
You don't get wins or quality starts from anyone anymore anyway.
So it doesn't really.
And both are arbitrary, right?
Like, yeah, like they're both entirely arbitrary distinctions.
I mean, pitcher had more control over whether he goes six innings
and whether he gets a win.
Right, but the arbitrariness is that like three-on runs and six innings is not actually not going to start.
Like a four-fifty ERA.
It's not because I was kind of circling around my point and I finally got to it at the end.
My experience with playing OBP instead of batting average is that,
A lot of the standouts in batting average don't walk a lot.
And so, yes, there are some guys who don't hit for good batting average but walk so much that they have a high OBP, like a Max Muncie, for instance.
But I think that's rarer than good batting average guys not walking much.
So the amount of people that can help you in OBP is less than can help you in batting average.
And the same becomes true if you do quality starts instead of wins because only so many pitchers are capable of going six innings with enough consistency.
You got to go at least five to get a win.
It's harder if you go five to get a win than if you go six, but it's possible.
And so I think you're just kind of narrowing the user player pool.
Maybe in a 10-team league you want to narrow the usable player pool.
But in 12-team leagues, it gets, and certainly anything deeper.
It gets a little, you're in danger of stressing the wrong things, I would say.
All I will say is the best categories to play, whether it's 10, 12, 30, whatever,
is just whatever will keep the most people in your league engaged.
There's no best category.
It's just whatever your league mates will have the most fun playing with
is what you should do.
Yeah.
And I can see an argument for if you play head dead categories
where you're just facing one other person for one week at a time.
It's not something that's being calculated all season long,
like in a Roto League.
You might prefer things that are total stats rather than rate stats
just because rate stats are so wonky within just one week of fantasy, right?
So those things can just vary so much in a week.
It's a little bit harder to decipher, I guess.
Yeah, full disclosure, and this makes people mad.
You know, I'm happy with you being happy playing fantasy baseball.
You know, whatever that means, have at it.
The more people playing fantasy baseball, the better in my mind.
This is my least favorite of the three major formats.
precisely for the reason you well for a few different reasons but one of the biggest is the one you
mentioned there frank where um you know the traditional five by five categories three of them are rate
stats and rate stats can be skewed all kinds of ways over a one week sample that feel unfair
yeah so if you are going to make a category change like for instance i mentioned home runs to
total basis i've seen people do home runs to slugging percentage i hate that i like that i don't like
If you're going to, if anything with whatever category changes you make,
trend toward more counting stats rather than rate stats.
Yep.
Here.
This is my notepad here.
I wrote down 2438.
That's a time code for when I'm going to have to cut out something that Scott said
so that I don't get a bunch of angry people yelling ass about a dead categories.
I'm allowed to have preferences.
Come on.
I know.
And you are too.
I guess.
I guess.
Back to the lineups for a second.
And having two utility players, it does make the UT only guys
a little more valuable than usual.
But on Yahoo, there's only one of those that matters.
And it's Shohei Otani.
So Kyle Schwerber, Yordon Alvarez, Christian Yelich,
they all have outfield eligibility on Yahoo.
So it doesn't really change things.
What it does is it allows you to, I guess,
roster construction in the way you set up your lineup
based on what kind of category categories you need,
I guess, throughout the course of the week,
it gives you one more open spot
where you can just be really, really flexible with that.
So having that second utility spot,
but it doesn't actually change the valuation all that much.
I do like that a lot.
It gives you just more flexibility
as you go through your draft is the biggest thing.
The pitching lineup I mentioned is unique.
Again, it's two starters, two relievers,
and just two pitcher spots.
So how do you guys usually like to set that up?
I usually like to have four relievers
that I just kind of leave.
the lineup all the time.
That can be, you know, two closers and two setup guys that just give me good ratios and
strikeouts, although, you know, one pull-up from a reliever could really kind of skew things
for a week.
And then I just kind of cycle through my starters based on the matchups that they have throughout
the course of week.
So, like, how many of these guys do I play?
That's kind of depending on the matchups.
I have a few aces that I just use all the time.
But, yeah, I think I kind of like to have three or four relievers that I just kind of plug in there
all the time to keep getting me stats and stuff.
I think on the whole, you should have more pitchers than hitters on your bench just in every type of format, but especially in this format because you want to be able to not just react to your matchups, but to the person that you're facing and what they're likely to put in their lineup.
Because if the person that you're facing is what, you could go as many as six starting pitchers, right?
Yeah, yeah, you can.
What am I?
No, it's two starters, two relievers, two pitchers.
But you could in theory go six starting pitchers if you had some of those spark guys, some of the SP.
So if someone that you're going up against has six starting pitchers in their lineup, no relievers, no true relievers.
You might just want to go one reliever in your lineup.
And one closer, hey, you won saves as long as they get their one save that week.
I mean, part of it makes a big difference whether we're talking about daily lineup changes or weekly.
And I think this format head-to-head category.
which is most widely played on Yahoo.
It's a popular platform,
so you can understand why so many people are out there playing head-to-categories
because a lot of people play on Yahoo.
But I think that setup most often uses daily line-up changes.
And that is all the more reason why you need to carry more relievers than you would
in a weekly head-to-head league, regardless of whether it's categories or points league.
So in between the starts, you can still be getting stats from somebody, even if it's not a closer.
Yeah.
And so platoon bats generally are more valuable on Yahoo than they are anywhere else just for the same reason.
They're likelyer to be daily lineup leagues.
And you are going to get more out of your platoon bats in a daily lineup league where you can take them out and put them in.
Although you don't want to have too many of those guys.
So having a lot of flexibility also helps a lot in a daily lineup league because you're,
third baseman's out of the lineup.
You've got a good hitting
outfielder. You can go swap
in. I don't know. Brendan Donovan might still have
outfield eligibility at Yahoo. I haven't checked,
but he's played outfield.
Short stop.
Third base. Dude.
Mike Kell Garcia I was looking at has
second base, third base shortstop.
Yeah. And he only has third base on CBS.
Yahoo is just much more
this is true across sports. I used
to write about basketball. Yahoo is much more
generous. With their position
eligibility than any other platform.
Brendan Donovan does have second short and outfit, by the way.
NFBC, you have to have 10 games in season to gain eligibility.
Yeah.
Yahoo, I think you just have to own a glove to gain eligibility there.
I did mess something up, though.
I do need to remedy this.
I'm sure there's a lot of people yelling at their platform right now.
The pitcher spots is actually two starters, two relievers, four pitchers.
So it's eight that you have to have in your lineup at every time.
Okay, that was why I was sure.
That was my, that's what I thought.
And then you, I was looking at the run now.
I was like, wait, two, two, too.
That didn't sound.
Yeah, I just, I miswrote it, but I, I, I keep myself in one Yahoo League just so I can look this stuff up all the time.
And it's, yeah, it's two starters, two relievers and four pitcher spots.
So, letting our mock drafts up wrong, if that's the case.
Well, Scott, now is the time to fix it.
Let's talk about some hitters that gain an advantage in head to head categories.
Chris, you mentioned some, the platoon bats, the strong side platoon bats, where you could kind of play matchups and in a daily lineup league.
get those guys in whenever they're facing a right-handed pitcher.
Are there any other-
Oh, we set them up right.
It's fine.
We've been using four pitchers.
Are there any other hitters that you think,
types of hitters that gain advantage in head-to-head categories leagues?
In theory,
Shoehae-O-Thani.
Well, yeah, in a daily lineup league where you can use
Sho-Hos both a pitcher and hitter,
that is by far.
If he's one player with, and you could switch him
between hitter and pitcher, he is the number one player by far.
But I don't think he is one player on Yoh-
He's not, no.
If, but if you do play in a league like that, what your league should probably do is what fantasy football leagues used to do in like 2002.
Yep.
When Ladani and Thomason was scoring like 400 points every week, some leagues would just, if you got the first pick in the draft, you didn't get a third round pick.
Or you do third round reverse.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
A lot, third round reversal is another one.
They still do that for a lot of high stakes football leagues.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think Scott Fishball tends to do third round reversal.
You don't see it much in baseball.
But the problem is.
is the guy who doesn't get Shoahatani,
but the guy who picks second gets totally screwed.
And you're like, why do I have to get punished
just because Shohei Otani exists?
I mean, I guess you get Aaron Judge,
so that's pretty good.
You get Aaron Judge, but, you know, still.
So I feel like we-
Chris didn't end up commenting on the kind of hitters that.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
I think you can make a case for like positional specialists
just because steals and home runs tend to come in bunches.
but I think that works both ways.
You are going to have weeks where you get a lot of home runs from a Giancarlo Stanton.
There are going to be weeks where you get zero home runs from John Carlos Stanton.
So I don't tend to think you should value players that much differently in a head-to-head categories versus a Roto League.
Okay.
Let me say this because I don't know.
This is the most important thing I think I can say about this format because this is a.
change in approach I made a few years ago,
and it's made me much better in this format.
I've won the podcast for the People League,
which is a 16-te-to-head Categories League.
I've won it now three the last five years,
and I think it's because of this change I made in my approach.
I want, with hitters especially, category dominators.
It particularly home runs and stolen base is the counting stats that you can really control for.
I want to dominate those categories.
I want overkill in those categories because unlike in a roto league where if you run away with home runs,
it's like, oh, that's a lot of wasted value.
In a head-to-head categories league, because they're weekly competitions,
because you don't have,
because it's shrinking the timeline to such a small sample
that you're kind of at the mercy of,
you're more at the mercy of randomness over that sample.
I want there to be so much cushion built in
for the categories that I feel like I can honestly build it into
that I can just chalk those up as easy wins every week.
And at least keep myself competitive in all the others.
So I try to, you know, if I can get a guy who's going to be a 20 homer 15 steel guy or, let's even say a 2020 guy, do I want that or do I want a 40 homer guy and then, you know, later a 35 steel guy?
I would say the latter, if that makes sense.
I think the way my performance has changed is proven that it's the way to go.
You'd rather have, I don't know, Chandler Simpson and Kyle Schwarber than Sidon-R-Faella and Francisco Lindor.
Is that the right way to put it?
Maybe Lindor's too high-end.
But like, I think Saddam Raphael is a good example of a guy who, yeah, that's an accumulator.
That's in a roto league, at the end of the season, you get your 15 and 20, and you're happy with it.
in a head-to-head categories league, that means half the season, you're getting zero home runs out of
a sit-down-offalo, probably.
There's going to be some weeks where he hits two.
There's going to be a bunch of weeks where he hits zero.
I would say it's especially true with home runs, really emphasizing home runs.
I don't know that I want Chandler-Simson with some few lineup spots being filled to take like a negative.
Like I think maybe I have to get my steals wherever I can get them.
But mainly I'm just looking not to short-chance.
change home runs.
In all likelihood, that means not short-changing RBI.
That's the other thing is home runs count in four different categories.
Yeah.
Yep.
Yep.
And so the flip side of that, and you guys mentioned this a little bit here,
is the hitters that might lose value are those accumulator types.
You know, jack of all trades, but don't really excel at anything types.
You know, Ian Hap, Brian Reynolds comes to mind where they're fine players.
And in a Roto league, you know, you'll have your 20 homers and 10 steals by the end of the season.
And that's fine, but just weekly dominance.
I just feel like maybe you don't get it as much
from some of those Jack of All Trade type hitters.
Let's take our final break.
When we return, we'll talk about punting
in a head-to-head categories league right after this.
Can you punt in a head-to-head categories league?
Yes, you can.
In fact, you probably should.
It's something you should consider doing.
Do you guys like to punt any categories
and what are the easiest categories
to punt in this format?
Steals and saves.
Yep.
Those are the two categories that every hit you get gives you an RBI opportunity.
Every home run you get gives you at least one run RBI.
Every starting pitcher who pitches well gives you strikeouts and win potential and ERA and whip.
You might get saves from guys who get zero strikeouts.
You might get saves from guys who give up two earned runs.
You might get Chandler Simpson who gives you 40 steals and basically nothing else.
So I punting you can punt saves you can punt steals
You can't really punt anything else
Batting average
Yeah I guess but
Just trapped a bunch of guys that are like slugger types
Who we always talk about being worried about like Cal Raleigh and
Kyle Swarver
So I mean I mean it's something I've tried to do before
And I think it was kind of successful when I did it
I think the thing about it is though if you're gonna pump batting average
It's because you're targeting like Kyle Schwarz
Swarbermax Muncie types who still get on base a lot.
Because if you punt batting average and get low OBP guys do,
you're you're sort of punting runs as well.
Yeah, if you're getting, Joe Adele had an awesome season, right?
What do you have, 37 home runs last season?
Sounds right.
He had 236.
He scored 63 runs.
He was great in RBI and home runs, but that was it.
So that gets, that gets tougher.
I think it just, punting batting average is just, you can do it.
You got to finesse it, though.
Yeah. The problem that I've noticed this more in basketball is once you decide that you want to punt free throws, you just only start targeting players who punt free throws. And it shouldn't be that way. It's, you know, if you punt batting average, you don't have to avoid other hitters that are good at batting average. But what it allows you to do is you can target those players more once you decide that you're punting batting average. I've heard of people trying to punt wins, but you're kind of punting strikeouts also.
That's just, it's such, like, I think punting wins means you're punting starting pitchers, basically.
I don't know what we call the Marmold strategy anymore.
I don't think it's called that anymore.
But for those listening from way back in the day, Carlos Marmull, former reliever in Major League Baseball,
this is basically just punting starting pitching is drafting a bunch of hitters early on and then closers.
And you still have to get to that 20 innings minimum.
But I think if you have all relievers in there, you're probably going to be.
get to 20 innings over the course of a week anyway.
But what that allows you to do is you just punt on starting pitchers.
You punch on those probably, you know, strikeouts and wins, yes.
But if you have really good relievers in there, you could win ERA, you could win WIP,
and you should win saves.
So it is an option.
I don't know how viable it is anymore, but it is an option.
I'm thinking the Brian Abraeu strategy.
Yeah.
Well, yeah, that.
He's probably the best set up reliever right now, right?
be you target these elite set up men who are going to give you 90 to 100 strikeouts.
So you still have a chance to compete in strikeouts.
You're going to have elite ratios.
And you shouldn't target closers was the Marmall strategy.
Like you can, but your primary focus is really, really cheap set up men who have the chance to become closers.
So like Brian and Bray, you ended up with, what, 10 saves last season, something like that.
You're hoping you get a couple of those guys who turn into closers.
and then you win saves as well.
I think like James Schultz was part of the Marmal strategy too
because he threw so many innings.
Yeah, and then you get like a boring,
a couple boring innings eaters types.
It's asking a lot to go right.
It's ironic to me that it's called the Marmal strategy
just because Marmal was coming off the best year of his career,
I think when the name was coined.
But you look at Marmal's history,
he always ran very high whips, except for that one year.
So it doesn't seem like he'd be an appropriate choice for it.
But it's, it's, look, overall, I don't like punting.
My strategy in head-to-head categories is dominate what you can dominate, which is home runs.
And I think if it saves plus holds, it's pretty easy to dominate that category, too, without making a big investment in it.
So mainly home runs and everything that comes with them.
And then just keep yourself competitive and everything else because you don't know, you don't know what you don't know.
You don't know in what ways your team is going to underperform.
You don't know if there is some other team in the league who, you know, you think you're strong in this area, but he's even stronger.
And so if you go up against him, you just have no chance because you've already given away so many categories.
I don't think you should paint yourself into a corner like that.
That's just, it may work sometimes, but it's either going to work or it's very much not going to work.
And that's not going to be a fun year for you if it's the latter.
Back to the pitching side for a second.
We spoke about Sparps on the Head to Head Point Strategy podcast.
I wanted to bring up R-PASPs, which is the opposite.
It's RP that have SP eligibility.
and people have asked me for these names before,
so somebody needs them.
And again, it's, you know,
if you want to go full-on reliever strategy
and pun-starting pitchers,
these are maybe some names that you need to know.
So on CBS, the R-PASPs, you have,
and it's not a great list.
Tyler Holton, Tyler Alexander, Tyler Gilbert,
Joey Wence, Jordan Hicks,
I'm probably missing a few.
Those were the ones that I could find.
On Yahoo, you have Eric Lauer,
Mike Vassel, Brent Herder,
A.J. Bluebaugh, Drew Pomer,
Kegan Aiken, Col Sands,
Wascar Brazaban, and Jose Buto.
So better options, definitely,
on Yahoo, if you do want to try that,
since a lot of people I've asked about it.
I think that's too cute by at least half.
Yeah.
Not great names.
We just went through a lot of those.
Some other daily lineup strategy here.
We spoke about platoon players.
You can gain advantage with these guys
in daily lineup leagues if you're on top of it.
I mean, you have to know yourself as a fantasy player.
And like Chris said earlier, I think you want to dedicate probably of your five bench spots,
three or four of those to streaming, starting pitchers throughout the course of the week.
So it might only be one or two hitters on the bench.
If you're going to play the platoon game, you really just have to be on top of it on a daily basis.
So some names that come to mind, the best, you know, projected platoon bats,
Addison Barger, Willi, Rue, Carrie Carpenter, Max Muncie with the Dodgers,
Josh Lowe, Trevor Larnick, Matt Walner, Dom Kanzone, Evan Carter, Luis Garcia, Jr.
and with that, how do you guys like to utilize the bench?
I just mentioned what I like to do.
It's usually like three to four pitchers, one to two hitters.
But specifically in a daily lineup league,
how do you guys like to utilize that bench?
I mean, full disclosure, I don't play in a lot of day.
I don't play in any.
I refuse.
I was thinking about this earlier,
I might make the Four of the People League a daily lineup league.
I will.
I know you guys would hate it.
No.
Yeah.
But I feel like we should play in one.
Going to start updating my resume.
I've played in them before.
I've played in them before.
Chris, we can share a team.
Scott, you're on your own.
It's just, it's, it's so much extra work.
And it doesn't necessarily reward the player who identifies the best fantasy players and builds the best lineup.
Yeah.
You have this, like, we didn't mention it in the head-to-head points discussion yesterday,
but the ESPN has the loophole where there's a max number of star.
that you can have in any given week.
But the way it works is as long as you're not over that max by the start of play on Sunday,
you can blow past the max.
And a lot of people use that loophole to just get every crappy starter on Sunday in their lineup.
And it's legal.
It's not fun.
What was the name of those?
What was the name of those?
I don't think they're so popular anymore,
but like when social media was just getting started
and a bunch of these games were being introduced
that basically rewarded how attentive you were to it
as opposed to your decision-making.
What is it?
I was making a joke.
I don't know.
There was a term for them.
I can't think of it right now,
but that's what it reminds me of.
And again, like, if that's how you get enjoyment
out of fantasy baseball, great.
I'm not here.
It's not how I do it.
I like being rewarded for my decisions.
That's true, basically, of every game I play.
And I play a lot of games.
So, you know, maybe it'd be different if I just played one or two fantasy baseball leagues.
And I, like, needed that chance to obsess over it daily.
But that's not how my life or my experience as a fantasy player is.
So that's a bit of a tangent.
And probably just going to make people feel bad.
So sorry about that.
it stands to reason to me that the more often
the more opportunities you have to update the lineup
even more you want to lean into pitching
because the volume there
given that pitchers can't pitch every day
even relievers can't pitch every day
you're going to stand out more in the volume stats
if you have more opportunities to swap guys out there
hitters you know I'd rather just have everyday players
you can make the platoon thing work but there are only so many bench spots
I will say if you're going to do that, daily lineups,
I prefer daily lineups with weekly transactions.
With weekly limits and with weekly transactions.
I guess you can do weekly transaction limits,
but I prefer you can set your lineup as many times as you want,
but you got a ride who you got on Monday morning.
Yeah.
That is my preference.
I totally hear what you guys are saying
because I don't play in a daily lineup league either
for a lot of the same reasons.
We're in 10 to 15.
leagues and we have to set lineups and set waivers and a lot of things to pay attention to,
it's just, it's not feasible to play in daily lineup leagues.
But for someone who just plays in one league, I can totally understand why you would want
to play in a daily lineup league so you can just, you know, have as much control every single
day as you humanly can.
So whether that's setting your lineup or making ad drops, whatever it might be and manipulating
things.
Like, I totally get why.
Again, like you play in one or two leagues.
Yeah, have that it.
Go play in a daily lineup league.
It's just, it's not as realistic for us who, you know, we play in so many different types of leagues.
Chris, do you have a preference as to how many ads per week?
Three, four, five?
I think five at the most.
Yeah.
And I get people, you know, do the, like, I don't want to get stuck with a player who gets hurt on Monday and I'm screwed the rest of the week.
And it's like, yeah, that could happen to your opponent, too.
Like, I don't know.
Like, that happens.
So I'm fine.
I think five is the absolute most though.
Last thing I will add on daily lineup benches,
it is a lot harder to stash players in that format
because your bench pieces just mean so much.
In a daily lineup league,
you're streaming guys in and out in terms of the platoon matchups,
and if they're in the lineup that day from a hitter perspective,
and then on the pitcher side,
you just need to be able to cycle through those
and add pitchers and stream and things like that.
So while there are prospects that you would want to stash
like Connor Griffins of the world and, you know,
Colt Emerson and some of these names that we talk about,
it's a lot harder I realize to do that in a daily lineup league
where you need those bench spots that you can utilize all the time.
Let's get into Roto Strategy Talk here.
We're going to go a little bit longer.
Obviously, I want to give Roto it's fair due here as well.
So also known as rotisserie, the 5 by 5.
This is the most traditional way to play fantasy baseball.
usually there are 10 categories, but people play in all different kinds.
They play eight categories.
Some play 12, 14, whatever it might be.
But the traditional five hitting, batting average runs, RBI, home run, steals,
and the five pitching once again, wins, strikeouts, ERA weapon, saves.
The goal is to rank as highly in as many of those categories as you possibly can.
The starting lineup goes a little bit deeper than the head-to-head format that we've talked about.
So far, two catchers, one of each infield position,
one extra corner infielder, one extra middle infielder,
five outfielders, one utility bat,
and then nine pitchers.
That's usually six three in favor of starters versus relievers.
Maybe it's seven two.
Maybe it changes throughout the course of the season,
depending on what categories you need.
But we'll start there.
How do you guys like to start your season?
Is it seven starters, two relievers,
six starters, three relievers?
What do you guys think?
I always aim for six starters.
three relievers and almost always end up with seven starters, two relievers.
Yeah.
Saves is an annoying category because it's an isolated category, as Chris talked about earlier, it doesn't.
You're targeting save source.
It's really just for the saves.
Yeah, they can help a little bit in other categories, but, you know, if they weren't
giving you the saves, you wouldn't care about them.
So it's a frustrating category for that reason.
It's one that I feel like every time I dive.
for it. It's like, oh, I could be using this pick on somebody so much more valuable, but I need my
saves. You don't want to draft Victor Vodnick this season, Scott? But it's, it's an easy category to
control for in Roto, because if you just have more closers than anybody else, you're going to win
saves. Yeah. And so that's the theory behind I want three save sources. And sometimes I come away with
one. I think that's, or sometimes I've come away with none. I think that's doable the more, the
shallower the league is because you'll always have a chance on emerging safe sources over the
course of the season 15 teamers i've learned can't get away with that as easily um so i like to not
invest much in saves but try to get two or three not so great to crummy save sources versus
having just one or two great safe sources yeah and the the big thing about it is
what's really tough about relievers and why i hate
anytime we discuss relievers, it makes me anxious because predicting pitching is hard enough.
Like, pitchers are in such little control over their outcomes to begin with.
And the sample sizes, like 200 innings is not a big enough sample size to say what a pitcher's skill set is.
Well, the best closers in baseball need three seasons to get to 200 innings.
and it's not just that they're small sample sizes
and that it's much harder to know who's actually good and who's not.
But then you have to go from, okay, I think this guy's good.
Will he remain good without a two-week stretch where he's terrible
and loses his manager's confidence?
Can I predict which managers will have a bunch of confidence in their closers and which won't?
Can I predict whether the Marlins will ever have a closer ever,
ever again.
Like it just...
I think they do now.
It's the hardest thing to do in fantasy baseball is to predict which closers are going.
It's the most volatile position.
It's...
I'm not saying get rid of it or that we shouldn't talk about it.
Like, it's important.
I think it's fun.
I think there's...
But it's personally very frustrating to me because there's so little in our control when it comes
like half of the closures are going to lose their job at some point.
Yeah. And that's why I don't like to invest in it.
I just, I just want a lot of bites at the apple.
And again, the shallow or the league, I'd say as shallow as 12 teams,
which is normally what we cater to, the league size.
As shallow is that, if you're engaged in the waiver wire process every week,
you can basically backfill the saves category off the waiver wire without,
without too much trouble because of the amount of turnover that happens there.
So, you know, give yourself a good starting point.
Don't be at zero by the time you start picking up guys.
And you'll do pretty well in the category.
It's not a major stressor there.
Deeper leagues, 15 teamers, certainly in L.A. L.A. L. only formats.
It becomes a big stressor.
You either have saves or you don't.
It's much harder to have three good closers.
To have three closers.
Yeah.
I mean, it's hard to have three closers.
You want to make sure you have one lockdown closer in a Mono League, I would say.
And then anything else after that is gravy.
And that's why in those NFBC ADP that we talk about a lot,
at this point in the year, closer prices are ridiculous.
Like they are 40 picks higher than they probably will be in normal drafts.
Once those, your 12 team home league type leagues,
you're not going to have closers going in the top 40.
There will be several in any given NFB.
Draft or NFC draft yeah and that's one of the biggest differences you'll see in ADP in Roto versus head head
points as well because Roto you'll have 12 different teams that are trying to get either two or three relievers so more of them are being drafted and
saves are just scarce there is a bigger scarcity for that category versus in a head head head points league where there's 12 teams you only start two relievers per team so that's 24 and then some of those teams are going to use SPARPS so really only like 15
to 18
closers are being drafted and used
in a head-to-head points league
and then everyone else is kind of mixing and matching
spark. So that is a huge difference in terms
of price and cost
and value between
relievers in those two formats.
I did want to ask about
just general strategy
when drafting in Roto. It is a little bit of a
deeper lineup, so what are some
things that you guys have noticed doing differently
in your Roto drafts, I guess,
versus any type of head-to-head? Either head
head points or head-to-head categories.
I think in the
in the
like fantasy baseball
space, this is
the most discussed format.
So it's, it's, it's
almost like we're comparing everything else
to this format. And I
don't think of Roto so much
on its own terms as much.
I guess
maybe the main thing,
the main thing I do with Roto is
focus on ratio stats for both hitters and pitchers,
which is just one for hitters, right?
It's batting average.
So with my early picks, I don't want to neglect batting average
because that's harder to fill later.
And I think a lot of people ignore it.
And you shouldn't ignore it because it's a category
that you do have some control over
if you're just conscientious about it.
And then on the pitching end, it's basically all about the ratios for me.
ERA whip, you know, strikeouts in traditional five by five, it's a counting stat.
It's not a ratio, but you're looking at the strikeout ratio for the pitcher if you think he's going to be a full-timer and, you know, contribute enough innings that he's going to be good at strikeouts.
So those are really the only categories I'm, I shouldn't say those are the only category.
I am focused on home runs and stolen bases too.
But I think everybody knows that.
I think everybody focuses on home runs and stolen bases and maybe neglects,
particularly on the hitting and batting average.
That's a category you want to fill early.
If you are going to try and catch up in batting average later in drafts,
you're sacrificing so much in other areas with like a Louisa Rice type.
Or even like a Jacob.
Yeah, you might get 11 homers and 75 runs an RBI from him.
Brendan Donovan, we just spoke about it, right?
You're putting yourself at a real disadvantage when you have to target.
It's really true of any specialist.
Like, if you're a 40 homer guy, you're either super valuable or you are a big detriment in a lot of other places.
And that's true of a lot of stolen base specialists.
like Jose Caballero, he's stolen 50 bases in a row, 50 bases two years in a row.
You get basically nothing else from him.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Like that is just, that is the one category he's going to help you in.
He's going to help you a lot.
But you have to really make up for it every other place.
And the problem with relying on those specialists, Luis Arias, is last season, Luis Araya's hits, what, 292 instead of
315.
Yeah.
And it's like, wow,
Luis Arias was pretty bad last year.
And it's like,
well, no, he hit 292.
That's really good batting average.
He just doesn't do enough else to make up for it.
And that's the problem.
It's less true for home run specialists because you get,
you're going to get at least 40 runs and 40 RBI with those 40 homers, you know?
But there are definitely power sources who will be a drain on your back.
batting average in a way that's hard to make up for.
And look, when I say focusing on batting average early,
it doesn't mean I'm going to skip Kyle Schwarber necessarily or Jose Ramirez or Francisco
Lendor.
They're fine.
I mean, those last two are you might think they're fine for batting.
They're fine for batting average.
But there are a lot of good batting average sources at that point in the draft.
I'm not saying I'm skipping them.
It's just if I take them, I'm compensating for it as soon as possible because I know at a later
point in the draft, it'll be much harder to do so.
And then the issue I have with Kyle Schwer specifically is not that he's a bad player,
certainly, he's awesome.
Not that he's a bad pick necessarily, but with this second round ADP he's got, one,
you're locking in a bad batting average from one of your two most valuable picks.
And you're locking in that utility spot.
So it's not that Kyle Schwerber is a bad pick.
It's just your path through the draft just changed.
dramatically when you took Kyle Schwarmer in the second round. He might be worth it.
But it's one of those things where he might be worth it, but does it hamstring your team the rest of the way?
It's not a guarantee, but it it lowers your margin for error the rest of the way.
You've got you've got two short stops already. That's it.
Can't draft another player who has who's just shortstop eligible because you don't have a utility spot for it.
I mean, that's true for anybody who filled utility spot is true for show you.
Yeah, you're still going to take Otani first or second.
Right, but because Otani is a legitimate difference maker in at least four categories, probably five.
Schwerber, great home runs, great runs, great RBI, that's it.
That's the thing that flies under the radar for Schwerber.
And I just got finished talking about how I don't focus much on runs at RBI.
But I've learned I need to focus on it a little bit, because especially since there are so many semi-platine,
tune players, let's call them.
These days, there's a lot more specialization in the game today than there used to be.
You could have, I've had years where I was like second or third in home runs in a 15-team league,
and then like 11th and 12th in RBI.
And you're like, how does that make sense?
And it's just, I didn't focus.
So getting back to Schwaber, the run in RBI production for him is monstrous.
Every year, the lowest total he's had in either of those categories over the last three years is
104. And so, yes, the batting average might only be 240. It might be a little lower than 240,
but just to build in that advantage, it runs RBI and home runs, I'm willing to do it.
But it does put you on a path. In some ways, I kind of like narrowing my focus. Okay, I know what I need to do now.
But I understand the other side, because normally I'm making the argument from the
other perspective. I don't like
painting myself into a corner like this.
But I think for Schwerber, because he is a
monster, like a legitimate monster
in three categories, I think it's worth it.
Yeah. And I do think, again,
you guys touched on this, but
reiterating, protecting
your ratios, batting average, ERA,
and WIP. I put out a question on Twitter
asking, you know, what did people want to hear
about on a Roto Strategy podcast?
And I got a few responses to people asking,
what are the hardest categories
to make up in season? It is the
ratio stats. Once you get to
July or August, it's
pretty hard to move up or down.
Well, you can move down, certainly, but it's
hard to make up ground in the ratio stats
to further the season goes along.
You can always kind of stream
for chasing the totals
and things like that and going after the
counting stats and things like that.
You can stream guys with seven games
or have really good matchups and things like that.
It won't always work, but
it's easier to stream for
those things or try to make up ground in those
categories than it is in the ratio stats later on in the season. So definitely be cognizant of that.
And of course, you want to aim to finish first place in each category as much as you possibly can,
much more built on balance in Roto. You do not want to punt a category. You can punt one category and
win, but it makes things so much harder to do that in a Roto League. So typically, if you can
average a third place finish across all categories, that should be enough to get it done.
So that will get you around 100 roto points in a 12-team league and 130 total roto points in a
15-teamer. And both of those, you're probably looking good if you can average a third-place finish.
Fourth across all categories, that'll put you at what, 90?
Yeah, that's a lot of times that's enough to win it.
Yeah. So I look back at two 12-team roto leagues that I played in from last season. And here's an average.
of what you needed to finish third place in each category.
257 batting average, 1100 runs, 335 homers, 1,1112 RBI, and 200 steals.
Per player, that is 78.6 runs, 23.9 homers, 79 RBI, and 16.7 steals.
When you consider two catchers, five outfielders, it starts to add up.
I mean, those are pretty big numbers that you need to get to there.
Yeah, like this is less true now with this catcher crop that we've got, although pitching is attrition, catching is attrition too, right?
Catchers bust at a higher rate as prospects.
They busted a higher rate in fantasy drafts.
A lot more ways for things to go wrong for catchers than every other position.
So if we get to the end of the season and catchers kind of a wasteland again, I won't
shocked, even though it's not what I'm expecting.
So I do want to just note that.
But it's to point out that
a lot of the times
you might get a 20 homer catcher.
That 20 homer catcher might hit 2.30.
And he might get 54 RBI and 56 runs.
That's honestly generous for a catcher, Chris.
You might be getting like 45 runs.
Did A100 Kirk score like 40 runs last season
despite having a very good season.
The counting stats on a lot of the low-end C-1s and C-2s,
the counting stats are really bad, man.
Yeah, let me, what was?
45 runs.
46 RBI.
76 RBI is great, yeah.
The year before, 23 runs, 54 RBI for Alejandro Kirk.
It was a bad year, but like, that's a fairly normal thing
because catchers just don't play very much.
So any average that you go through for your whole line,
you have to account for unless you have Kyle Schwab or Cowrally,
unless you have Ben Rice,
you are going to be William Contreras.
You are going to be at a disadvantage in your counting stats at catcher.
I mean, there are a lot more catchers who are playing.
I think part of it is just Alejandro Kirk's being overdrafted right now.
There are enough good catchers that he should be number two.
Sure.
But you think about like Carter Jensen or Kyle Teal or.
Drake Baldwin's going a little earlier,
but now with Sean Murphy being out the first quarter of the season,
which I'm not sure we've mentioned on the podcast before.
It sounds like Sean Murphy's going to be out for the first quarter of the season
recovering from hip surgery, I believe it was.
Catch your previous coming up next week.
Yeah.
Later this week, Chris.
My point is, I'll sum up.
I'll get to the point here then.
There, I think this year you have to worry about that less than ever.
I know there's some attrition, but there are just so,
So even in a two-catcher leagues, there's just so much depth there of legitimate high-end hitters
who should play a lot more than the typical catcher.
I was thinking about what categories I like to prioritize early on in drafts.
And based on these numbers that I laid out here, what you need to finish third place in each category,
I think power early from guys that don't hurt your batting average, I think is kind of the ideal setup.
Because you can get steel seemingly at any point in the draft.
Obviously, the further you go into the draft, you know, getting steals later on, like, it's going to come with some detriments and, you know, but you can find steals throughout, like, all parts of the draft.
Finding power with batting average that doesn't hurt you is really only something you could find in the top 100, 150 picks.
After that, you'll find power, but it's going to be a 220 batting average or something like that.
So that is really something is finding a way to get power with batting average that doesn't hurt you early on in the draft is something.
something I really want to focus on myself.
Not that hard to get, or at least approach 200 steals this year.
I mean, these days, what is it?
Was last year, year three of the new pickoff rules?
I think it was the second year.
Yeah, I think it was a second year.
Yeah, yeah.
Didn't Ronald de Kuna steal 73 bases?
It was the third year.
It was the third year.
Yeah, it was the third year.
Okay, so three years, I mean, we're pretty deep in.
into this now, but I feel like the fantasy baseball community as a whole hasn't caught up to the idea
that home runs are of higher priority early in drafts than stolen bases are.
For so long, it was stolen bases.
They were so scarce.
And if you didn't get them early, you'd have to sacrifice so much in the other categories to
make up ground later.
But that's not true anymore.
Like you said, Frank, it's more, it's more of the case.
That's more of the case with home run.
now. Yeah. So some names
that I wrote down here again, it's power
without hurting your batting average. Catele-Marté,
Yoron Alvarez, though he comes with injury
risk. Bryce Harper. Freddie Freeman,
not a huge power hitter, but, you know,
20-25 home runs and, you know,
probably a 280-plus batting average.
Austin Riley, if he's right,
Vinny Pass Quantino, Sayas Suzuki, Corey Seeger.
Those are some names that stand out
kind of meet what I'm looking
for there. Here's what you needed to be
third place in each pitching
category again taking the two leagues that I played in last year they both had waiver wires and so
full on 12 team roto leagues 93 wins 1,420 strikeouts 73 saves a 335 ERA and a 114 whip so that averages out to 10.3
wins but remember you're going to have two or three relievers in your lineup so that's more like
12 or 13 wins per starting pitcher spot in your lineup 15th strikeouts and then depending on if
it's three relievers, you need 24 saves per reliever spot.
If it's two relievers in your lineup, you need 36 and a half saves per reliever spot.
So this is for third place in these categories?
Yes.
Yeah, third place.
And these feel a lot more daunting than the hitting stat.
335 ERA.
Wow.
Yeah.
I mean, that's, that's, you think like a 118 whip.
My thought is like, oh, that's pretty good.
Oh, that's hurting you.
That's a drag now.
And the other thing to keep in mind with these ratio stats is the volume matters.
So like Logan Webb is a really good pitcher.
And he throws a ton of innings.
He's one of the rare 200 inning guys.
And you've got 205 last year.
What was his whip last year?
Like 124 something?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Like Logan Webb is not just actively hurting you in whip.
He's throwing so many innings that it kind of almost becomes insurmountable in a certain way.
And that's also true when you talk about like a, gosh, who's a hitter who hits for a bad batting average but doesn't walk a lot?
Who'd be a good example there?
I'm sure there's someone.
We can say, Zach Nett.
Victor Scott.
Yeah, I was thinking someone a little higher end, but like you also have to think about the numerators and denominators when you're to go back to some middle school math here.
your good batting average sources who walk a lot like Juan Soto are less impactful than they would otherwise appear because you're getting 130 plate appearances every year where that's not impacting your batting average at all.
So they're having a smaller impact on your team's overall total of at bats and hits.
It doesn't change how you value these players necessarily, but it's just something to keep a
mind with, I think especially whip.
I think whip is the hardest category in Roto just because we spend so much time thinking
about ERA and so much less time thinking about WIP.
Yeah.
And it makes sense.
Runs to the point of the game.
You are muted, Scott.
But thanks for noticing I was moving my mouth.
I think it's a very small, but I could see it.
But yeah, 200.
Whip is less variable than ERA is what I was going to say.
Sure, yeah.
Well, look, a problem with whip, too, is a lot of the young pitchers that we talk ourselves into and get excited about, they're usually bad whip guys, right?
It's, you know, bad control, but, you know, they throw high velocity, they get strikeouts, you know, we're talking ourselves into Nolan McLean.
They're just kind of a win mystery box, I would say.
They could be good for whip, but like somebody like Trey is Savage, I mean, the problem he has, and we saw it manifest at times that the great starts were great.
And between them, he'd have starts where the walks ran kind of high.
Nolan McLean could have the same problem.
Nolan McLean is exactly the one I was going to say.
I mean, a lot of those guys, I mean, Cam Schlittler, as much as we like him,
control not so great.
Bubba Chandler.
Control was great last year in the majors.
In the minors, it was always terrible for him.
So there's a common theme there.
So you don't want to draft too many of those kind of young guys that could end up hurting your whip.
Not necessarily going to.
Nolan McLean, uh, 1.04 whip in the majors last year.
That's awesome.
Well, it's probably not going to have a 275 Babb up again.
But in the miners last season, he had a 255 Babbitt, which is crazy low.
He still had a 113 whip.
There is some real risk that Nolan McLean is just an actual whip drag.
The way Logan Webb has been.
And I think that's the comp that I've made a few times for Nolan McLean, where I think it'll be good.
But there's something to keep in mind with all the Nolan McLean hype is that because he's a ground ball pitcher, he might run higher whips the normal or just give up a lot of hits.
his command and control in the miners was not great.
So there's definitely some whip risk here with Nolan McLean
as much as everybody loves him.
And Chris, I know up on the screen right now,
you've put up a little Google sheet here showing off those numbers once again.
Those were just for my league.
And I know...
Yeah, I wasn't able to get the data.
I'll try to get it before the end of the week and have more...
I was just going to ask you,
are you going to put out an article that shows the Roto category targets?
Yes, I will at some point.
I just wasn't able to get access to the data in time.
But I will try to do that for 12 and 15 Team League rotos,
just to give you your targets based on last year's data.
Yeah.
And look, it's worth mentioning,
the sample that Chris is going to be working with is a huge sample.
So it's much more helpful.
But looking at just one roto league to the next,
things could be very, very different.
So while I average two leagues together,
I just looked, it was, you know,
the person who won the whip category actually
had a 106 whip in one of the
leagues across the whole season, which is
just bananas. And yeah,
I looked at the other league and it was like
115.
So it's every roto league is different from
the next what you're going to need to finish
first in that respective league. But
when we give you a big collection of
data across all CBS leagues, that is
pretty representative, I think, of what you
should be aiming for. So be sure to look
out for that when Chris posts.
But what Scott mentioned earlier
is, um,
is worth keeping in mind as well.
It's like that 106 whip
might actually be
it would be dumb to say detrimental
but it might be overkill.
Like if you have a 106 whip
and second place has a 110 whip
if you sacrifice somewhere else to get to that whip
it might actually end up
there's a specific term I'm trying to think of
that I can't get to
but you might end up hurting yourself by dominating in one category too much.
So that's something you have to keep in mind as you go through the season.
Yeah.
You only have to win by one stat.
You only have to win the category by one stat.
That's it.
Yep.
And so if you're really running away with stolen bases early on,
like you drafted Chandler Simpson and you drafted Trey Turner
and you drafted Jacob Marcy,
you might hit a point mid-season
where it's time to start moving those guys.
Because that's...
Being too strong in one category
can hurt you in other categories.
I won't say who the name is here,
but somebody in our Memorial Magazine League last year
won the saves category
with 138 saves.
The second place team was 77.
Yeah, that's...
You didn't need that men.
And that's...
But that's kind of, you know,
I guess,
I guess while we're revealing preferences.
I like playing Roto.
I do.
My favorite format is head-to-head points.
And one of the reasons I prefer head-to-head points to Roto
is because I feel like Roto is less about building the best team
than you're kind of just, it's kind of a different game.
The game you're playing is more about balancing various stats than just.
just building a juggernaut powerhouse team.
And sometimes you look at a, you compare two roto teams at the end of the year,
one that won the league versus one that finished fourth or fifth.
And just on paper, the fourth or fifth team will look like the better team.
It will have more stars.
They just didn't strike that right balance that allowed them to score more roto points.
So, you know, it's a fun game in its own right.
but I think in terms of
the idea of I am going to simulate
the experience of being a GM for a baseball team
and build the best team.
I think maybe head-to-head points
does a better job of that than Roto.
I mean, if you want that,
so OTP, M.O.B.
Yeah.
Sim leagues are tons of fun.
Yeah, score sheet.
Atonu?
Yeah, I've never played score sheet or Atonu,
but OTP is great.
Yeah.
All right. So that's that the, Roto is, you're playing the game of rotissory baseball.
Yeah. You're playing your Tissy game, your Tissy League. Not necessarily. That's what the kids call rotissory chickens.
I just want to get that in there to see. Yeah. Yeah. There's a whole subculture on the Tictox.
Stay away from Ticktok, Chris.
But yeah, that's, I don't, I don't use TikTok. My friends send me Tishy.
views.
Oh, all right.
But that's the thing.
You are playing the game of fantasy baseball, which is based on Major League Baseball,
but it is not, the goal is not the same.
So, you know, that gets into the discussions about which categories you prefer or what format.
And it's just whatever version of the game you think is the most fun is the one you should play.
Because it's, there's, there's limitations and there are drawbacks and weaknesses of every format.
It's just whatever you and nine to 14 other people are going to have the most fun with over the next, gosh, nine months.
Yeah.
That'll do it for categories.
We are going to wrap there for Scott.
Chris, I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
And we will be back again tomorrow.
Bye-bye.
Mount Podcasts.
