Fantasy Baseball Today - Schwarber Double Dong, Swinging Strike Improvement & Exit Velo Gainers (10/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 4, 2022

What a massive weekend for the Braves (1:20). ... Drey Jameson has worked his way into sleeper status for next season (5:06). ... Kyle Schwarber is up to 46 home runs (9:18)! ... What do we think about the shift ban in 2023 (14:37)? ... Which pitchers have improved their swinging strike rate the most from the first to the second half (16:25)? ... Which hitters have gained exit velocity (26:10)? ... News (37:25): Julio Rodriguez was back on Monday. ... Bo Naylor was called up while Simeon Woods Richardson made his debut (48:13). ... Logan Gilbert and Nestor Cortes are both finishing strong (50:20). ... We wrap with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (56:30). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. The Philadelphia Phillies have clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2011, and the playoff field is set. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, October 4th.

Frank Stamphle joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we're all over the place a little bit, but here's what we've got. Recapping some of the weekend's biggest standouts. A lot of games going on. It's got Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. It feels like it's been forever since I've talked to you. Second half improvements.

I do have some skills that I want to look at. Swinging strike rate improvements from the first half to the second half. Same thing for exit velocity in terms of hitters. And then I do have some other pitchers that are finishing out the final month strong. Just get some things. thoughts on them heading into the off season and for next year as well. Scott, before we get into, oh my goodness gracious, congratulations to you. I mean, I guess it isn't set yet, but man, what a weekend for those bravos. Oof. Oh, I mean, a huge series. And I don't even think I comprehended

going in just how important it was for the brace to sweep that series against the Mets. because they entered down one, but what was critical about the sweep is it allowed the Braves to take the season series from the Mets. The only way they would own the season series against the Mets is if they won all three of those games. And because of the expanded playoffs, as I understand it, there's no longer a tiebreaker game.

If they were to tie at the top of the division, just the winner head-to-head would win the division. So it was really like the Mets were kind of up two instead of up one. And then because the Braves swept and reclaimed the season series, it's like they left up three instead of up two, you know, because the tie goes to them now. So, yeah, they only have to win one more game. The Mets only have to lose one more game,

either of those scenarios. Just the only way the Mets win the division now is if they sweep the nationals and the Mets and the Braves get swept by the Marlins, And it could still happen. Brace lost their first game to the Marlins. So I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch. But it was huge, even bigger than I realized. And it was unexpected, of course, that they would end up taking all three against the Mets.

Feel bad for Mets fans, I do. Right. Yeah. I was just going to say, right? Like, to start the podcast, any Mets fans listening, I apologize. Right. Like, they're probably already shut the podcast off. Like, they don't want to hear any more of this.

But I'll tell you what, Scott. You live in here? New York, it feels like the sky is falling. You've seen it once, you've seen it a million times for the poor Mets fans out here. But look, it was well earned. It was very impressive. You did it against the Mets top three to Grom, Scherzer, Chris Bassett. Just a huge weekend for Matt Olson.

Scott, I saw your tweet. Kind of feels like it's coming into his own. Like this was his Braves moment, kind of earning that uniform, two homers for him. But he's got five homers in his last seven games. Dan v. Swanson, huge series of. as well. Kenley Jansen had a save in each game. You've rarely ever seen a reliever go three,

three games in a row. It's now up to 40 saves in the year. Yeah. And let me double check. Yeah, you actually sold Olson short. He homered in all three games of the series, as did Dansby Swanson. So yeah,

I kind of felt like, I mean, there's no replacing Freddie Freeman in the hearts of Braves fans, but I think all season Matt Olson was kind of just a reminder of who wasn't there, you know? Like nothing against.

the guy, but like every time you saw him, it's like, oh, I wish we still had Freddie there. And so it was nice to see him come through. And like, honestly, this was the, this was for a regular season series. I don't remember being as excited for one as this one. I couldn't watch the Sunday night game. I was listening to it on the radio, which is something I haven't done for a baseball game in forever. So it was, yeah, it was a big weekend.

exciting the way it played out. As I mentioned at the top, the Phillies are also headed to the playoffs. Shout out to them and their fans first time since 2011. The playoff field is set. We just don't know the exact order yet, the exact seating, but in the National League we'll have the Dodgers, the Braves, the Cardinals, the Mets, the Padres, and Phillies. In the American League, the Astros, Yankees, Guardians,

Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rays. Some big performances from Aranola and Kyle Schwarber. and we'll get to those in just a little bit. But let's jump in. Oh, my goodness gracious! All right, as you could guess, a lot of what we're going to be doing from here on forward is going to be

taking a look back at what happened, what we did right, what we got wrong this year, but also projecting forward for next season, which brings us to Scott's, oh my goodness gracious standout, a young starting pitcher we may have some excitement for in 2023. Yeah, that's Dre Jameson.

of the Diamondbacks, one of two pitchers they called up toward the end of the season. They entered the year with some prospect height, but they struggled in the minors. Double A and AAA for the Diamondbacks. They're especially difficult places to pitch. They're especially hitter-friendly. And so Ryan Nelson's the other.

He came up and delivered two great starts. Kind of fell off after that. But Dre Jameson, between the four starts he made, He had a 148 ERA. And the most recent coming Saturday at the Giants, he gave up two run runs in six innings, struck out seven. It was pretty much right out of strikeout per inning

across those four starts. And, you know, he looks like a legitimate talent. The ground ball rate 56% that is elite. Four-star sample, but still, he was a pretty good ground ball pitcher in the minors as well. His swinging strike rate 11. 7.4%, not elite, but certainly good enough, especially if you're going to get ground balls that the Ray Jameson did.

So, you know, I don't see him being more than like a late round flyer in fantasy leagues next year, but he'll be somebody who I'm probably looking into at that point. It's, I got to say, it's an exciting time to be a Diamondbacks fan. I feel like they debuted some interesting talent at the end of the season. Corbyn Carroll's looked great. even like Brandon McCarthy I think has shown he could be certainly in fantasy

with all the stolen bases somebody who can make an impact and yeah those two pitchers and there's still plenty more left I mean Brandon Fat is probably the best is probably better than Jameson and Ryan Nelson and he hasn't debuted yet

and of course Jordan Lawler the shortstop top shortstop prospect is going to be a consensus top 10, if not top five guy going into next season. Probably top 10 because a lot of the rookies we saw debut in September are still going to have that prospect eligibility. But the point is, looks like the Diamondbacks are trending the right direction. They do have the misfortune of playing in the same division of the Dodgers who look like they're never going to be bad again.

But even so, it's like a good time to be a Diamondbacks fan. Scott, you gave us a little blast. from the past because you said Brandon McCarthy instead of Jake McCarthy. Remember the starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy back in the day? He was kind of an interesting dude.

And he was a pretty good pitcher a couple of years. Yeah, he had his moments. But no, I meant Jake McCarthy. Sorry about that. All good. Jake McCarthy, big second half as well. Lots of speed.

Looks like an interesting player. Hopefully they can get Alex Thomas back on track too. But Corby and Carroll's been doing his thing and they got these young starting pitchers. and you mentioned Jordan Lawler and of course we're going to have these

Arizona Fall League updates for you throughout the entire month of August and November and our guy, the Welsh is out there and he's watching the games. Jordan Lawler's first game, he went two for three with a home run, two steals, three runs, three RBI,

and two walks. I mean, if there's a way to get started, that is it because that is just an absolutely massive. The ball does fly out. There's going to be a lot of offense out there in the Arizona Fall League, but nice little start there for Jordan Lola. I agree, Scott. Lots of fun days coming for those Arizona Diamondbacks. I didn't actually write a player down here for, oh my goodness gracious, but let's go with one of those fillies that I mentioned. Kyle Schwerber just really kind of turning it on here down the stretch, once again, double dong on Saturday, another

double dong on Monday. That now brings him to 46 home runs for the season. And he's done it in a way, Scott, where he's really just sold out for the power in terms of putting the ball in the air, a ton this year. It's led to a really low batting average, really low babbip, lots of strikeouts as well. So he's not typically one of these people that, you know, I was going to say doesn't hit the ball as hard. Like he's not an Aaron judge, right? Like Aaron Judge is obviously the clear standout. He still does hit the ball extremely hard. But I think even getting this environment, Scott, he's almost.

had to lean into putting the ball in the air more to get to this exorbitant power, home run total, basically. If this fly ball rate comes back a little bit to where it's been in his career, obviously those home runs are going to come down. But I don't know, it's just a really, really interesting. Like, I want to say it's a good year for Shorebrook because it's 46 home runs and 10 steals. But the two, what is it, 2 19 batting average, it just stands out like a sore thumb. What do you think about the season overall from Kyle Schorber?

I mean, the 46 home runs stand out more, I would say, especially with home runs becoming less prevalent. He's 99th percentile, an average exit velocity is shoreber. So let's not short-change him with how hard he impacts the ball. Of course, it's not quite like Judge because nobody is. But, yeah, I don't think it's, like, he's never been a great source of batting average, but I don't think we're going to see him hit as low as, what did you say, 219? Yeah, he's at 219. Again, at least not during the prime of his career, you know, maybe in the later days he struggles to hit for average.

But I know his hitting coach, Kevin Long, well-traveled hitting coach, has worked with a lot of guys over the years, and is considered one of the better hitting coaches. He was actually, Kevin, or Kyle Schwerber's hitting coach in Washington last season, too, when Schwerber kind of took, took, took, this next step toward becoming really an impact bat in the majors. And Kevin Long has said that he expects Schwerber to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift restrictions next year. He didn't just list Phillies players. He listed off a few players around the league.

It was an Jason Stark article for The Athletic. But Schwerber was one of the ones he thought would be a big beneficiary. and, you know, slow left-handed batterer who pulls the ball a lot. I mean, you could definitely see that being the case. And, of course, you just look at this history, I think, you know, more likely, 240, 250, something like that. I think I wouldn't be scared away by the batting average for Schwerber next year is what I'm saying. I suspect he'll be one of the top 12 outfielders drafted, maybe 15 at worst. I was wondering if the batting average might keep the cost down a little bit, but yeah, that power,

that power total is just absolutely massive. And you're right, Scott. I completely sold Kyle Schorber short based on this stackass page, which is absolutely just filled with red. So average active velocity is massive, barrel rate, hard hit, X-Lug, Max, V, like, everything is super impressive for Kyle Schwerber. Batting average hopefully can get back on track, but you know what? It's kind of relative to the rest of the league,

right? Scott, because I assume the overall league batting average will go up and the standouts at batting average will probably get even more standout year. That's definitely not a word or a term. So it's still relative, but I hear what you're saying. I don't think he's going to hit this low once again. That is Kyle Schwerver.

I don't think the league-wide batting average is going to go up that much, I think it'll be a few hitters, mostly left-handed hitters for obvious reasons, who see their batting average, move a lot, maybe as much as 20, 30 points. But it'll be more of a scattered effect

that really transforms the value of certain individuals more than a league-wide thing. I do think the stolen base changes are going to create more of a league-wide situation. But, you know, there have been a lot of people looking at the data kind of downplaying the effect of the so-called shift band. Ban. Obviously, it's not a ban completely. You could still play a second baseman or shortstop, almost up the middle, still take away that base hit to center field.

You just can't have them cross over second base. But, of course, that's going to leave a bigger hole on the other side of the fielder. So it stands to reason it will go up for some players, certainly. But I think there are a lot of players who are shifted on less than you think, certainly ones who bat from the right side, and who are less affected by the shift than you think. I've also heard Scott, and I don't know how realistic this is, but I've heard it on a few broadcasts that they think teams are going to take their left-fielder

and almost position them in short right field as almost like a... Like where the second baseman plays now, basically. Like, just really deep out there and deep in terms of the infield, but really shallow in terms of the outfield. And basically just play with two outfielders. So have your center fielder and your right fielder.

And I guess you could do it against, you know, extreme pole hitters. And it's the same thing, right? It's just like gambling that they're not going to go the other way. It's the same thing if you expect them to hit a ground ball. I'd be surprised if it happens that much, and of course, I don't really know. But in general, hitters, when they put the ball in the air, they tend to hit it the opposite way more often than not. So you're really going to leave left field wide open.

And maybe you shift the center fielder and right field or over some, so it's more like you're leaving right field open. I don't know, but it seems like you're, uh, you're just begging for a triple if that happens in a way that, you know, it wouldn't, it wouldn't require a hitter to change his swing that much to take advantage of that. And maybe not even at all. Like it would to beat the shift on a ground ball,

you know. And it just wouldn't surprise me, Scott. Like someone, some team, some analytics group is going to find out a way to gain the system in this new shift ban. I just don't know. exactly how they're going to do it yet. I mentioned at the top that we do have second half improvements

in the skill indicators that we like to look at a lot, swinging strike rate for pitchers, exit velocity for hitters. And let's take a look at some of those, Scotty. I have the top 10 here. And this was at least 60 innings pitched in the first half, at least 40 innings pitched in the second half. So there's probably some names that are excluded here that maybe they just missed a cut in the first half or just missed a cut in the second half, so on and so forth. But the top five, swinging strike percentage gainers in the second half. Reed Detmer's went from 9% to 13 and a half percent. We know his story. He came back. He was throwing that harder slider and he looked really good for a while and then he fell off once again. Joe Ryan went from 9.8% to 13.1% in the second half.

Aranola actually had a huge start here on Monday where he took a no hitter into the seventh inning at the Houston Astros to get the Phillies back into the postseason. 11.4% swinging strike rate in the first half, 14.4% in the second half. Luis Castillo went from 11.4% to 14%. And the last name I'll mention here, good old Charlie Morton, Scott, who will be back with the Braves, sign a one-year deal for 2023. Get to that a little bit later on. He went from 11% to 13.7%. I've got five more, Scott, but let's focus on this group for now. Read Detmers, Joe Ryan, Aranola, Luis Castillo, Charlie Morton. Well, what's funny is they haven't universally improved just overall. I mean, obviously they've improved it as a swinging strike rate,

but Joe Ryan, you mentioned a strong finish, but in the second half, overall it's a 414 ERA compared to a 299 ERA in the first half. So what did the improved swinging strike rate do for him? It appears not much. And the same, of course, is true for Charlie Morton, who has been pretty rough down the stretch. Sure has. But yeah, I mean, Reed Demers,

look, Reed Demers looks like an asset again in fantasy. I understand he fell off a little after initially returning from the miners with that harder slider. But his final start of the season was good against the Rangers on Friday, one run and six innings with nine strikeouts. I think that's his final start of the season. 21 swinging strikes on 93 pitches. And like, he just looks like he has a chance now.

Before he wasn't missing enough bats, he managed to throw a no-hitter in spite of it, but he was missing so few bats that it just didn't seem like there was a future for this guy. And with this improved slider, Reed Deppermers looks like, okay, this is something to build off of. It looks like there is legitimate upside here.

And I'm hopeful for what the future holds for him. So Luis Castillo actually has had a lower ERA in the second half as well, despite the improved swinging strike rate. But I feel like the highs have been higher since joining the Mariners. Glancing at the game log to confirm that. Yeah, I mean, for the most part, he's had, let's see, he's had just with the Mariners, he's had six starts with eight strikeouts. or more.

Six of 11 starts, eight strikeouts or more. And it was a lower rate than that with the Reds. I guess it's been pretty close. But I don't know. I feel since he went to the Mariners, I've started to feel a lot better about Luis Cascio. Like we can treat him as a borderline ace again

when it looked like that opportunity had passed him by with the Reds. Yeah, it really kind of started with Cincinnati, I guess, at the end of June. Oh, absolutely. Right before the All-Star break is really when he kicked it into gear. So in his final, let's see if I can pull up the numbers real quick. His final 16 starts, yeah, he's made his last start. 263 ERA, 118 strikeouts in 99 and a third innings for Luis Castillo. That is certainly ace-like.

it's 10.7K per 9. Pretty good. Yeah, and the underlying number since joining the Mariners, it's interesting because his ERA is actually a little bit higher with the Mariners than it was with the Reds, yet his FIP, his XFIP, his Sierra,

they're all lower with the Mariners. So we know that ERA can be a little bit fluky, and that's why we look at these skill indicators. You know, it's got something that you brought up while you were talking about it. Do we overvalue swinging Shrike grade? It's like while you were talking about it and some of these guys technically haven't been better

in the second half, despite getting a few more whiffs. It's just interesting because the other pitchers that are pitching to contact, it feels like they're almost having better years. So what do you think about this? Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. I don't know that it's as important

with the changing league landscape. I mean, during the, how many years was it, six years prior to this? one, the juiced ball era, that's what we're going to call it, what we've been calling it. The best way, and I mean, it's still true, obviously,

that the best way to limit damage is just to keep the batter from hitting the ball in the first place. That's always going to be the most valuable thing a pitcher can do, but it was essential during an era when a batted ball could so easily translate to a home run,

you know? And so I still think it's like a very valuable thing getting swings and misses but the pitchers who do that at a higher rate may not stand out from the crowd as much as they used to all right so maybe it's a

remains to be seen remains to be seen no I think it's a fair point maybe it's some kind of marriage of ground balls and like a solid swinging strike rate which will allow you be more efficient you know giving up fly balls is in his damn as it used to be either.

I don't know that ground ball rate is. In fact, I think that's even less important relative to the previous six years than having a great swinging strike rate is. Because, I mean, you look at somebody like Tristan McKenzie, extreme fly ball guy, but fly balls aren't as dangerous as they used to be. Not as high percentage of them are leaving the park. And when they don't leave the park, they're often outs, unless you're going to try some extreme shift strategy where you'd have just two. outfielders. Well, I'm happy you brought up Trista McKenzie, Scott, because we do have five other names here rounding out the top 10 swinging strike improvements from the first half to the second half. Hermann Marquez went from 9% to 11.6%. Ranger Suarez from 7.7% to 10.2% to 10.2% to 10.4%.

and Trissa McKenzie from 12.1 to 14.3. Ranger Suarez is actually a name I wanted to highlight last week because he actually has been much better since returning. I don't know if it's just Ranger Swariz really likes the second half, but the ground balls have been up. He's getting a few more whiffs. Clearly he's still not a standout in terms of swinging strike rate, but he has made big improvements.

As has Trissa McKenzie, the aforementioned who we've talked about him a little bit recently. He might be like one of those quasi-aces where you don't have to use a top 20 or top 25 starting pitcher price tag to get him. And he might actually perform like that if he could stay healthy and just kind of keeps on doing what we saw this year. So all right, Scott, the five here. Hermann Marquez, Ranger Suarez, Michael Waka, Framber Valdez, Trissa McKenzie. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, a big reason why Ranger Suarez was so much more effective down the stretch.

and I guess it more or less coincides with the second half, a 250 ERA after the All-Star break for Ranger Suarez. He cut down on the walks, is part of it. And I think he kind of got the, I don't know, everything just seems sharper. He got the brown ball rate up closer to where it was last year. It wasn't bad in the first half, but I think a pitcher like him needs it to be really, really high.

And obviously can't hurt himself. with walks because you give up more ground balls, you're probably giving up more hits overall. And that's certainly going to be the case next year. It's just less damaging sort of hits. Yeah, Michael Walker is one that stood out to me as we were going through the second half, because, I mean, the final numbers ended up good,

but they were easier to explain down the stretch, particularly when he came back from the I.L. in I think it was early August and you saw this spike in swinging strike rate for him and it's like, okay, yeah, I could see how this version of Michael Waka could maybe be success in fantasy. I still think he outperformed expectations, outperformed what the rest of his numbers say he should have done.

But maybe not so much that we should just completely. ignore Michael Walker next year. All right. And again, those are the top 10 swinging strike improvements from the first half to the second half. I do have the same thing here for exit velocity. So let's just jump into that before we hit the break. The top five improvements, Hassan Kim from 84.5 miles per hour to 89 miles per hour. A. E. E. E. E. Henio-Swarres

from 88.5 to 92.4. J.T. Real Muto, 88.7 to 92.5, and he just had a massive weekend. We had a three-steel game on Friday. J.T. Real Muto, now a 20-20 season for, I have to assume that's the first time in his career. He's done that, Scott, which is an awesome accomplishment for... Well, it's only the second time the catcher's done that. Yeah. I mean, it's really an awesome accomplishment for any player, let alone a catcher, right? So, just an awesome, awesome bounceback for JT. Real Muto. Max Muncie went from 88.6 in the first half, to 91.8. Looks like that elbow

finally got healthier for him. And Brian Reynolds from 88.8 to 91.8. I think he's up to 27 home runs now. So while the batting average has been a bit of a disappointment, nice little jump in terms of power for Brian Reynolds here. A few names here, Scott, Hassan Kim,

Suarez, JTRumuto, Max Muncie, Brian Reynolds. Hassan Kim, I didn't really, like he's not having a monster second half or anything, but just a name to remember for deeper category leagues next year, he hit 259,

six homers, seven steals in 65 games. That's what a 15-15 type player? And it sounds like he's going to play shortstop every day next year. Tatis is going to play outfield. So I think he's just kind of a name to remember in deeper leagues. What do you think of those five? I hadn't heard that about Tatis, but that would change things.

I guess it's not like confirmed, but I've heard it on the broadcast, on the Padres broadcast before. They've said it quite confidently that Kim's going to play shortstop and that Tatis is going to play the outfield. Okay. I don't, yeah, I mean, it's probably going to be more like for Kim, if that does come to pass, that it'll be like a 15-teamer type

because I just don't think the ceiling is high enough to impact 12th team leagues. Yeah, I mean, Real Muto has been a huge one. Of course, I referred back to it a few different times how I said it looks like he was pretty clearly on the decline, and then he had this huge second half that's reflected as much as anything and how hard he impacted the ball. I don't know that he can sustain a 92.5 mile per hour,

average X of velocity over a full season, but he doesn't need to. I mean, he'd never been that prior to it. The point is he still is able to impact the ball that hard while making contact at a good rate. like he always has. And that's reason to believe he's going to be the top catcher in fantasy next year. That's how I would draft him anyway.

Max Muncie is a big one because I wasn't confident his elbow was right in the first half and how weakly he was hitting the ball on average had a lot to do with it. And so to see him regain the strength in his swing in the second half, I think it bodes well for his 20-23 prospects. certainly in points leagues I mean he might be drafted higher at second base than third base frankly because we need

some impactful second basement and in points leagues with his good plate discipline you could see Muncie you know potentially being a top six player at that position in terms of where he's drafted so much

much more confidence in him based on the second half of course Nathaniel Lowe we've talked about him a lot Marcus Simeon I didn't mention those yet Scott Oh sorry I'm getting ahead

Jumping ahead Yeah okay sorry yeah We haven't talked about this to you It's a good time to mention them Two Rangers fill out Filling out the top 10 here In terms of jumps in average eggs of velocity From the first half to the second half

Nathaniel low from 89.3 to 91.5 Juan Soto from 90.3 to 92.2 Yet he's been so bad. Hmm, I'm gonna look at him while Scott talks. Yandy Diaz from 91.4 to 93.4, Randall Gritchuk, from 89.1 to 91. Also kind of interesting. And then Marcus Semyon from 86.5 to 88.2.

Neither Mark is great, if we're being honest. But since June 1st, Marcus Semyon, 273 batting average, 25 homers, 18 steals, an 830 OPS, 16% strikeout rate, putting the ball in the air a ton, he's scoring runs, gets on base. 25 and 18, if you told me that before the season, I said, that's just a pretty good year for Marcus Semyon, let alone to be done in 110 games.

So it's, you know, ever since June, Semen has been one of the most valuable players in fantasy. This season, Scott, both him and Nathaniel Lowe, showing up on this list. Yeah. And correct me if I'm wrong, but the Rangers New Stadium is, okay, yeah, it's retractable roof. So it would be climate controlled when the roof is closed anyway, which I assume is most of the season. Maybe it was less often in April, though. The reason I'm bringing it up for Marcus Simeon is because he was just dreadful in April, like so much of the league. But him especially. and has been pretty much who we hoped he'd be since then. You mentioned the numbers from June 1st,

but it's, you know, it's April that really dragged him down early on. And so, you know, I wonder if that's going to be the norm for him with the widespread use of the humadors and at least the way the settings that are currently applied to them. Yeah, we saw offense way down in April, because the balls were being stored at temperatures and humidity level that was higher than the surrounding air, which made them carry not as well. And Simeon, Simeon with a guy who produces these modest exit velocities on average was one who especially suffered from that. And then once we got into the warmer months of the season, the humidor had less of an impact on the ball.

at times it may have even helped it in certain venues, and we saw Simian's numbers take off. So I don't know if he's going to fall into the same pattern every year, again, every year as long as the humidors are set up in this way to be set to this specific temperature and this specific humidity level that just seems to deaden them completely in April. Simeon may have awful April after awful April, but we know now to stick with him if that happens again next year.

Juan Soto said I was going to live. look into his numbers a little bit. He has actually lowered his ground ball rate in the second half while he's hitting the ball harder. What stands out as the biggest negative is infield fly ball rate, nearly 17%. That is double his career high of any full season. So it seems like he might be pressing a little bit the second half being traded to the Padres.

Maybe he's trying to put the ball in the air more. And as a result, he's just popping it up. But that's really the only thing that stands out to me as that. the biggest negative for Juan Soto, which of course leads to a lower Babbat and lower batting average, and that's why he's hit just 238 here in the second half. I'm already kind of talking myself into just buying back in on Wont Soto, Scott, even though...

You have to. Yeah. He's going to have a huge bounceback season. I am as confident about that for him as I've ever been for any player. Especially when you consider that top three in the lineup. Eventually, right? By the time we get to May and hopefully Tatees returns and he's healthy, we'll see what happens, but Tatease Machado and Juan Soto

at the top of the Padres lineup, that's about as good as you're going to find in Major League Baseball. Before we hit the break, just a few reminders that we've moved to our off-season schedule, which includes two podcasts per week, live stream on YouTube on Monday and Wednesday night with an audio podcast in your feed on Tuesday and Thursday mornings. That will basically be our schedule all the way through December. Once we get into January, we'll probably take it back up to like three, podcast per week, four in February, so on and so forth.

Until we're going daily once again, Scott. But let's not make that happen too soon. We are closing in on a milestone. Fantasy baseball today currently has 2,880 Apple podcast reviews. So 3K is a huge goal, huge milestone. The bosses really like that kind of stuff. If we helped you win a championship and or you just enjoyed our content all year long, then please leave us a five-star rating on Apple.

You could drop a comment, a question. team name Tuesday in the review. We'll read it on a future podcast. If you listen on Spotify, you can also leave a five-star rating there. Can't leave a review, I'm sorry, but that's a Spotify thing. But help us out.

Apple, Spotify, five-stars, definitely helps. Let's take a break, and we'll get to the news and notes here on Fantasy Baseball today. The news and notes, Julio Rodriguez, was indeed back in the Mariners lineup on Monday and leading off,

and I believe I saw a graphic that he had a three-habilia. hit game. He sure did. He went three for four with a double, a run, and an RBI. He is just the guy that stirs a drink for the Seattle Mariners. They're a completely different team with him in the lineup. Stalling Marte won't be ready to return from the IL any sooner than this Friday. He'll have a shot to return for the wildcard round as he rehabs a fracture in his right middle finger. This is what's so tough about playing fantasy this deep into the season, especially if you play in any type of head-to-head playoff championship matchup.

Carlos Rodan may not make his final start on Tuesday due to workload management. And if that's it, he'll end the year with a 2.88 ERA 103-WIP, 237 strikeouts, over 178 innings. Just completely ridiculously awesome season for Carlson. It's pretty generous of the Giants considering he's got to test the market again this offseason. I mean, he can opt out, and I assume he will. He's not going to agree to just the one year that he has remaining on his Giants deal. So, I mean, they have nothing to gain from pitching him.

They're out of the race, obviously, but still, they could just for the sake of it. He's already reached his career high at inning, so you can understand from his perspective, why he wouldn't want to do that, or maybe his agent's perspective, why I wouldn't want to do that. Well, the Giants are trying to get in good standing, Scott. Maybe, you know, hey, we give you a start off here. You give us a little $1 million discount. No, that's not going to happen. But we'll see where he winds up.

Obviously, San Francisco was a fantastic place for Rodana pitch. And frankly, I think he'd be good anywhere. But San Francisco was especially very good to Carlos Rodon. Clayton Kirschau will start the finals game of the Dodgers season on Wednesday, but it will be an abbreviated outing. Again, starts this time of year, frustrating. I know on Monday, Jose Cantana and Miles Michaelis, they did a tandem start, so three innings each.

and you're just going to have to do wacky stuff like that this time. That was a bummer. That was a bummer for me personally. Both of those guys. Yeah. Three innings apiece. Come on, man. Not great. Not great. Spencer Shreder is expected to resume throwing this week. He's not expected to be available until the NLDS due to an oblique injury. The Angels signed Shohei Otani to a one-year $30 million contract to avoid arbitration for next season. it's a record salary for an arbitration eligible player and the largest year to year increase for a player in history.

Scott, bold prediction. Nah, I don't know if Shoah Otani gets traded. I was going to say something wacky, but I don't know. What do you think? Does Otani get moved? I have no idea what the angels are going to do. Like, they seem like the, they seem like the team that, has no clear path forward.

You know, rebuilding doesn't make sense with Trout there. And, you know, would, I mean, Trout's locked up for a long time. Obviously, Otani isn't. Maybe you trade Otani and try to build back up. But then, you know, by the time you do, Trout's obviously in his last years and will he even be the same. You know, it's just like there's such a huge talent disparity between their best players in the bulk of their roster

and they're kind of just banking on Anthony Rendon being healthy, Jared Walsh bouncing back. Jeez. Yeah, it's, it's like that I, that would be the team I'd least want to be the GM of right now, I think. And it sounds like they're going to at least chop the team in terms of, you know, new ownership. So they've got that up in the air too.

It's like, what is the new owner going to want to do. I'm sure they're going to want to try and compete when you have two players of this caliber, right? Mike Trout and Joey Otani. I don't know, Scott. It's definitely a tough situation. Maybe the answer is try and shop Trout so if you can get for him while, you know, he's still performing up to this level. It's just, it's hard to imagine trading, frankly, either of them. But Otani is just, just looks like this generational talent. Like, how can you trade that guy from your team? It seems crazy. It feels like if you were going to trade, Trout the time to do was before signing him to this long deal because that's going to eat up a lot

of his trade value, just the financial commitment to him. I don't know. It's a good question. Angels, not sure what you're going to do. Clay Holmes is dealing with a right shoulder strain and recently received a cortisone injection. Yankees are unsure if he'll be ready to go for the ALDS, which begins on October 11th. Michael Copac had surgery to repair a torn right meniscus last week and is expected to be ready for spring training. Insert the Michael Scott Giff, Scott, where he's yelling, no, no!

The Braves have resigned Charlie Morton to a one-year $20 million contract extension with a club option for 2024. Here's what I'll say. If you believe in curses and jinxes and things of those nature, then you should draft Charlie Morton next year. There was only two years, Scott, where I was heavily invested in Charlie Morton. 2020 and 2020. Those are basically the two years

in the past six or seven that he's been bad. Every other year he's been really good. It's just the years that I really want to draft Charlie Morton. Next year, I know we're not supposed to do this, Scott. I mean, unless he is literally free in drafts, I don't think that I'm going to have any Charlie Morton.

I don't think he's going to be free in drafts, but given the depth at starting pitcher, he might go for a reasonable price. I mean, there's going to be a lot of people who write him off just because he's 39 years old. A lot of the underlying metrics are still strong, and I'll take him as like my fifth starter, fourth fifth starter next year.

I will. I can't do it. The pain, the inconsistency, just watching this guy, one start amazing, one start terrible. God, it was such a disappointing season for Charlie. Everybody, well, I shouldn't say everybody, but most players who are going to be universally drafted, there is a price for every single one of them

that I'd be willing to pay. And Charlie Morton's no exception. That price might be lower for you than it is for me. But I don't think he's going to be one of the first 40 pitchers drafted next year. No, no chance. No, he will not. If he's not, then doesn't seem like there's a lot of downside

to making that play for him. Clearly, the Braves believe. I mean, I thought they were, because basically he had an option for about this amount next year, and they just kind of, they sort of kind of picked up that option already and added another team option to it.

Right. So I guess they're kind of like giving him the option of retiring every year, and I kind of thought he was, going to retire based on the way the season went. But, you know, they decided he's still worth that amount to them. And we talked about maybe them being in the Jacob de Grom hunt this offseason. And I presume this takes them out of it because who are they bumping from the rotation?

If not, Morton. I don't know. It's a great question. you're technically Scott you're you're handling this the right way that's the way that you're supposed to play fantasy where there's a price that you are willing to draft any player I just I get too emotional with it and it's it's clearly something that affects my ability to play fantasy Chris Taylor's status for the rest of the regular season and the first round of the playoffs is unclear due to next of this Anthony Rendon was reinstated by the Angels

he was batting fifth in their lineup where he went over two with two strikeouts and then he was relieved by Luis Renhifo. So maybe he's hurt again. Who knows? The Cardinals signed Giovanni Gallegos to a two-year contract extension with a club option for 2025. Ryan Helsley is arbitration eligible also through 2025. So the Cardinals have their back into the bullpen locked up for the next three seasons at least. Tony LaRousse had released a statement that he will not return to manage in 2023 citing health issues that would make it impossible for him to manage. Obviously, we wish good health to Tony LaRussa,

but even he admitted his time with the White Sox. Scott was clearly a disappointment here. And I don't know, maybe a new voice in the room will help them get back on track because frankly, they just have too much talent not to get back on track. So just a really weird year. Them not winning the Central, I think,

was the biggest, disappointment for any individual team, certainly a team that we expected to be playoff-bound. I had higher expectation for the Tigers than they ultimately performed up to. They must have too because their GM got fired. And let's see, who else? Brewers, I think, have been kind of underachievers this year relative to expectations. But I think the biggest is probably the White Sox. And yeah, they still have a lot of talent there to work with.

All right, Miguel Cabrera will return for the 2023 season. Why wouldn't he? He makes $32 million next year, even though he's 40 years old. So, yeah, make your money, Miguel Cabrara. Nelson Cruz is planning to return for 2023, but it appears we're starting to see the decline. It hit us pretty fast this year. 234 batting average, 10 homers, a 651 OPS in 124 games this season. Players who went to the IL the past few days, Edward Cabrubes.

Brera with a sprained right ankle, Felix Bautista with left knee discomfort, Logan Webb with back stiffness, Kutel Marte with an undisclosed injury, and Evan Longoria with a fractured right thumb. I do have a few prospect updates, Guardians catcher, Bo Nailer was indeed called up this weekend. He has gone 0 for 8 across three games. Met's third base prospect, Brett Beatty has been cleared to resume baseball activity. He underwent left thumb surgery on September 1st. I mentioned Jordan Lawler had that monster game in the AFL.

And lastly, Simeon Woods Richardson is a pitching prospect for the Minnesota Twins. And he made his debut on Sunday. So I did just want to highlight him, Scott, and see if you have any thoughts. He gave up three runs, two earned over five in his pitch. He had three strikeouts.

He was working with a four-pitch mix, a four-seam fastball, slider, curb ball, and a change-up. Does not throw very hard at all. He averaged 90.8 miles per hour on the fastball. the minor league numbers were actually pretty good this year. I know he's like a former top-ish pitching prospect. Any thoughts on Simeon Woods Richardson?

Yeah, I had him in my top 100 prospects going into last year. And he ended up being terrible. The Blue Jays were his organization at the time. They included him in the Jose Barrio Steel. There's a terrible season. Pretty much wrote him off after that. But yeah, this year Bounce back nicely

277 ERA 105 whip More than a strikeout per inning in the minors Pitched fine I would have liked it to be better Considering it was the Tigers It was his major league debut But yeah I just don't know if he's going to have

Enough bat missing ability To be an impactful fantasy pitcher Even though he was decent in the minors this year Low fastball velocity as you mentioned A guy who is going to need really good control and make a lot more use of his secondaries that he did in this start, throwing his fastball 55% of the time. So I'm still thinking Simeon Woods Richardson is probably not a guy

we need to bother with next year, but don't want to forget the name completely in case he ends up surprising. All right, let's get some leftovers from the past couple days. Some pitchers that are finishing strong. I'm going to start with, I have six totals, so I'm going to give you three to start with. And we've got Logan Gilbert. Once it turned to September, something just clicked for him

because in six, his last six stars, 2.00 ERA, a 0.9 to whip, 41 strikeouts over 36 innings, a 12.2% swinging strike rate. And he's leaned into the slider more. He's gone from, he's raised the usage seven percentage points during this recent stretch. Nestor Cortez, another ridiculous start on Saturday. I was actually at the game, Scott.

I was trying to see number 62, but I don't know. We're up against it here. Only three games left. Seven and a third shutout for Nasty Nestor. He gave up one hit, two walks, 12 strikeouts with 20 swinging strikes, five stars since returning from the IL, 1.32 ERA, 0.73 whip. And Luis Severino on Monday night. He goes seven no-hit innings at the Rangers.

Obviously, the Yankees are kind of playing it safe with Severino, so they pull him with the no-hitter still intact. only had one walk, seven strikeouts, 13 swinging strikes. And we were talking beforehand, Scott. Severino, he still looks like he's really good. Like, he could pitch up to that ace level upside. It's just a matter of how many innings can he give you. How long can he stay healthy over the course of the season? And we, you know, saw that affect him once again in 2022.

So what do you think about these three? Pitchers finishing strong. Logan Gilbert, Nesser Cortez, Luis Severino. Yeah, I like Gilbert and Severino. more than Cortez going into next year. But you're right, durability. Remains a major question for Severino. I ended up throwing only 102 innings.

Which is not enough, frankly. But look great when he did before he went on the aisle with that strained lat, I had moved him into my top 15 rest of season. Like, I was basically giving him the ace treatment again. Yep. So stuff-wise, Luis Severino looks fine. Ability-wise, you know, after that long layoff, coming into this year, he bounced back nicely,

just can't feel confident in him giving you anything close to an ACE workload. Nestor Cortez is going to be an interesting case for next year. I think I'm going to be higher on him than the consensus because, you know, just in terms of pure stuff, it doesn't seem like he brings much to the table. The strikeout rate is, you know, more than one per inning, but

not what you'd expect for a pitcher who finishes the year with a 244 ERA, right? But the swinging strikeout rate is good, and this started for him at the end of 2021,

actually, so it's been going on longer than a full season. I think Nestor Cortez has earned the benefit of the doubt, and of course, pitching for the Yankees,

he's a good bet to win a lot of games too. Yeah, I, I agree. And you know, it's kind of been slept on, but his velocity has climbed throughout the course of the season. Not anything crazy.

You know, it's just steadily climbed throughout the year. And starting around 9091 and now he's getting up to like consistently throwing 92 with his fastball and all the kind of herky jerky stuff that he does on the mound too. And he's got some decent secondary pitches with his cutter and his slider. I like all three of these guys. You know, Scott, I know our early lean on draft strategy is to target hitters early.

really, you're going to need to find pitching in the middle rounds that you feel good about. And frankly, I feel good about all three of these guys. Logan, Gilbert, Nester Cortez, and Luis Severino. Do we feel good about these three? Some younger starting pitchers who are certainly finishing the season strong as well. Hunter Green, another fantastic outing against the Cubs. He went six shutout, two hits, one walk, eight strikeouts. Hayden Wesnesee on the other side.

He went six innings, two runs allowed. One of them earned, six strikeouts, just one walk. and Jesus Lazzardo began his season with a 12 strikeout performance he ends his season with a 12 strikeout performance against the Atlanta Braves

where he went six shutout four hits, one walk, 12 strikeouts once again Scott Hunter Green, Wesneseke Jesus Lazzardo So Green obviously is the one we've been talking up the past few weeks

and his four starts after returning from the IL he put together a 0.78 ERA, 0.83 whip 14.5K per 9. He once again averaged more than 100 miles per hour on his fastball in this start. I think three of the four starts. That was the case for Hunter Green following his aisle stint. And, you know, it's going to be hard not to be excited about him next year. He will, he is still coming off a year in which he had, oh, it's actually lower than I thought.

444 ERA is what it ends up being for Hunter Green. I guess that's what happens when you have a 0.780 ERA across four starts. It's still a case of a guy who needs that outlier velocity,

I think, to be a standout pitcher in the league. It's kind of a hitable fastball, but when you're averaging over 100 on it, it doesn't matter. So I don't want to be too sanguine about Green's prospects for next year. And I do think there's a point. Like if he's going ahead of Nestor Cortez, for instance,

okay, I'm probably not going to draft any Hunter Green. But yeah, he finished the season on his highest possible note and was the top prospect coming into it. So there's a lot to like about him going into next year. I'm hoping the overall ERA and whip keeps his draft costs down a little bit, Scott. But for the smarter players out there, It probably won't matter one bit. We had an awesome pitching tool over the weekend

featuring last year's NL. Sayung Award winner and most likely this year's NL Syong Award winner as well. Sandy Alconso was at the Brewers. He went eight innings, one run with eight strikeouts. Corbyn Burns was even better on the other side. Eight shutout, four hits, zero walk, seven strikeouts. Just wanted to highlight the innings pit, Scott.

Sandy will not make another start. He finishes with 228 and two-thirds innings. Osinola second at 205. That is the most... First of all, that's just a huge disparity, right? Like 23 innings. But that is the most innings by a starting pitcher

since David Price had 230 back in 2016. So Sandy is just in a category of his own when it comes to innings pitched. I mean, think about how many innings 23 and two-thirds is. He had four more starts. Yeah.

Four. I mean, that's... almost six innings. Right. You know, that's, you know, that that would be four if it's like about six innings a start. That's crazy. I mean, he didn't literally make four more starts than any other pitcher,

but he had that many more innings than anybody else. That's why I think there's a case for taking Sandy Alcantra's the number one overall pitcher in points leagues next season where endings are most valuable. Yeah. Yeah, it's hard to disagree with that. I do have a few bullpen updates and some streamers for those who are still playing in daily lineup league championships but for those bullpen updates

the Orioles put Felix Batista on the IL as I mentioned. D.L. Hall actually picked up the save on Friday for them and then on Sunday it was Dylan Tate who picked up his fifth save for the Angels this weekend. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with their bullpen but Jimmy Hergett struck out two for his ninth save. Ryan Tepera picked up his sixth save on Saturday. Hergots actually looked pretty good.

I don't know. Maybe they give him a shot. For the Dodgers on Saturday, Bruce Star Griderol struck out one for his fourth save. Craig Kimberle worked in the sixth inning of that game. And I saw Craig Kimberl was pitching in the fifth inning here on Monday. So they are completely just letting him try to figure out in lower leverage situations, which makes sense.

Craig Kimbril has not been very good. For the Tigers on Sunday, Gregory Soto struck out two, and he gets to the 30 save threshold. So congratulations, Gregory Soto. For the Rockies on Sunday, Daniel Bard pitched the eighth and the ninth inning, and he struck out all six of his outs were via strikeout, and he picked up his 33rd save.

Scott, I'd be willing to bet that most teams that finish towards the top of their roto leagues in saves will have Daniel Bard on their team, because he was either drafted as one of your last picks, or he was picked up very early in the season, and for him to do what he did and give you 33 saves, that is just a massive, massive contribution.

Yeah, it is. How many pitchers are going to finish with 30 saves this year? It's a good question. Look that up. I'm going to look it up. All right, check that out. Let me know.

And for the Reds on Monday, Alexis Diaz gave up a run but picked up his 10th save. I kind of hope that the Reds just give Diaz a shot heading into next year. Obviously, he's got the family pedigree with his brother Edwin Diaz,

but he's earned it. pitched really well this year for Cincinnati. For the Yankees on Monday, Scott F.Raw struck out one for his fourth save. Again, Clay Holmes dealing with that injury. For the Red Sox, Matt Barnes picked up his seventh save. He is under contract for 2023 and then has a team option in 2024. So, me thinks that Matt Barnes could be involved with the saves once again for the Red Sox next season. And then for the Phillies, I didn't really understand this one.

Zach Eflin picked up his first save. you know, Zach Eflin, who used to be a starter, he picked up a save. David Robertson and Tarantane Dominguez have not been used recently. So I would assume they were available, but I don't know. Kind of weird.

Zach Eflin. All right, Scott, 30 plus saves. How many do we have? 10. I'm surprised it's that many. So a third of all big league teams had a closer with,

and had a reliever with 30 plus saves. That seems like a reverse. and trend, doesn't it? Yes. I mean, I guess we would have to confirm that for sure, but I'd be willing to bet that there was not 10 relievers with 30 plus saves in 2021. Yeah, so I'm trying to pull that up real quick.

The page is not loading very quickly. There was nine. Oh, well, that's disappointing. I felt so confident. Yeah, I thought it was actually the breakdown is very similar because there was last year, there was 9 with 30 or more and there was 19 with 20 or more

and this year it's 10 with 30 or more as I said and with 20 or more it is 18 with two more a couple more have a shot to get to 20 before the season's over so it's basically

right in line with trends however there's a couple 40 safe guys this year and there wasn't any last year that is true I believe It's Kenley Jansen and Emmanuel Class A. That's right. Anyone else close? No. I think Jordan Romano has 36, right?

Yeah, Romano and Hendricks. Josh Hader, even though he was out of the role for a while, I was 35. Right. Hendricks, I think, picked up his 37th on Monday as well. Hmm. I don't know. Wheels are turning in my mind about my closure strategy for next year already,

which, again, it's just, I get crazy this time here, Scott. To stream or not to stream for Tuesday, Eduardo Rodriguez at the Mariners, Marco Gonzalez versus the Tigers, Dakota Hudson at the Pirates, Braxton Garrett versus the Braves, Chris Flexen versus the Tigers,

Jake Oter Rizzi at the Marlins, Javier Assad at the Reds, and Luis Sessa versus the Cubs. I know what you're going to say, Scott, there's no chance that you want to bet your fantasy championship on any of these names. But people are desperate. No, there is,

no chance. I actually am in a roto league. I'm just trying to, I can make up the most ground and wins in strikeouts. And so I just added every starting pitcher to my lineup that I could basically. And Javier Assad was one I looked at. But I think rather than him, I'm going to say Braxton Garrett. I know the Braves are good against left-handed pitchers, but And I hope this doesn't come to pass because I want to see the Braves finish off the division here. But Braxton Garrett is a good enough pitcher that I think he could shut them down, potentially,

and get a decent number of strikeouts in the process. All right. I do obviously like the matchup for Dakota Hudson and Chris Flexan. I can't trust pitchers like that. On Wednesday, final day of the season. Domingo Hermann at the Rangers, Bailey Falter at the Astros. Aaron Savali versus the Royals,

Adrian Samson at the Reds, Graham Ashcraft versus the Cubs, Louis Varland at the White Sox, and Davis Martin versus the Twins. Probably Domingo Hermann is my top choice, and Aaron Savale is my second choice. Again, not a high priority, either one of them, but if you're trying to make up ground in the right categories,

it'd be my top choices. I think Adrian Samson is fine, too, I know the Welsh chose him last week on Friday, and he actually pitched really well. So, yeah. Shout out to Adrian Samson. Got to give credit where it's due. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Bye-bye.