Fantasy Baseball Today - Scott White's Top-100 Prospects! Comerica Park Changes (1/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

Top 100 prospects article- https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/fantasy-baseball-top-100-prospect-rankings-for-2023-featuring-gunnar-henderson-jordan-walker-anthony-volpe/ Will Fantasy mana...gers chase prospects this season (2:50)? ... Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll are both being drafted inside the top-100 picks (8:10). ... Triston Casas and Josh Jung could both provide power this season (14:50). ... Ezequiel Tovar and Oswald Peraza should start on Opening Day (18:20). ... Logan O'Hoppe should be a contributor for the Angels (22:26). ... What impact can we expect from Miguel Vargas, Francisco Alvarez and Matt Mervis (26:30)? ... When might we see Jordan Walker, Grayson Rodriguez and Oscar Colas (32:50). ... News (40:28): Miguel Rojas was traded to the Dodgers. ... The dimensions in Comerica Park have changed (46:45)! ... What can we expect from Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida (49:10)? ... We wrap up with over impact prospects (53:20). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Who is this year's Julio Rodriguez? Nobody. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, January 12.
Starting point is 00:00:33 Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris the Welsh. For those listening on the audio side, you know what I love is that our intro says, now here's Frank Scott and Chris. And it works regardless, whether it's a towers, whether it's a Welsh. It works perfectly. I think next week there's going to be a meeting of the Chris's that will mess that up. But you're right. You're right.
Starting point is 00:00:59 Usually there's just make an edit or the other. Just make the edit where he goes, Frank, Scott, Chris, and just do the two Chris's and just make the edit in there. It'll work. So that's a little sneak peek for next week. I'm going to be out next week. I'm actually coming down to Scotty's neck of the woods, taking a little vacay, meeting some people.
Starting point is 00:01:16 I've worked with Scott for almost three years. I've never met him in person. So we're going to change that. I don't know what you look like from the shoulders down. You know, like what's going on there in the midsection? I have no clue. Is it going to happen? Let's let the midsection is fine and everything.
Starting point is 00:01:34 But I did specify the area. below the shoulders that I was referring to. Because Frank and I have hung out. We've hung out, Scott. I haven't got a chance to hang out with you either. But Frank and I have. Are you two planning a battle of minds? Yes.
Starting point is 00:01:47 Yeah, we got something in the works. We don't know exactly what we're going to. I kind of want to just have him over here. So it'll be like he's walking onto a movie set, you know, this background that he's seen on the Truman Show. It'd be very Truman Show. I think you guys should go somewhere and you should just say exactly where you're going and just see how many people show up.
Starting point is 00:02:05 I think that would be great too. No, I think that would be a terrible idea. Well, you know what would be hilarious, though, if I just show up and I'm like Modoc from Iron Man, just like the little legs and just like floating around and stuff and just had no idea. I love it. Never saw me before. Anyway, today on the show, Scott's top 100 prospects articles should be out on Thursday at some point on Thursday. So to commemorate that article, we're just going to bounce around Scott's top 100 and talk about all
Starting point is 00:02:33 the prospects that you need to know for this upcoming season. We did have some news, of course, a small trade, a small signing, and Comerica Park changed their dimensions. So we'll talk a little bit about that as well. I led with Julio Rodriguez. I could be wrong about this, Scott, but I think that there will be a bit of a prospect chase in drafts this year, following the huge seasons that we saw in 2022. Julio Rodriguez, now a first round pick and fantasy. Michael Harris and Spencer Strider were both amazing. They're likely going to be top 40, top 50 picks and 50.
Starting point is 00:03:05 fantasy baseball this year as well. And I think that might have a bit of a ripple effect this season when people are kind of trying to chase that unknown, chase the prospects once again for fantasy. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. Obviously, the two standouts who are going to be high on everybody's draft boards are Gunner Henderson and Corbyn Carroll, who, of course, we saw at the end of last year. And I do think that's going to become a trend where we get kind of this sneak preview, the previous September, because of the way.
Starting point is 00:03:35 draft pick incentives have been worked in for service time considerations. So there is a clear duo. I guess since there's more assurance when they're going to be up, they're going earlier than Julio Rodriguez did last year, but not that much earlier than Bobby Witt went last year. So I don't know that it's changed that much. And I do feel like you said at the very top, who's this year's Julio Rodriguez, no one.
Starting point is 00:04:05 And I don't know where exactly you were going with that, but I did have the thought, okay, Gunner Henderson, Corbyn, Carol, they're my number one and two. But they don't feel like as exciting of a number one and two as we've had in recent years. I do think they're going to be fine fantasy players
Starting point is 00:04:23 and have high-end outcomes potentially, but they don't feel like that, oh, this is going to be a generational player, which is the feeling I got with like a Julio Rodriguez and Iwander Franco have some doubts about that for Franco now but I did at the time thought he was going to be that really really huge first rounder for years to come type player Vladimir Guerrero I would say I felt that way about him of course like Ronald de Cunia so just thinking about some of the number one overall prospects in recent years I don't get quite the same
Starting point is 00:04:56 feeling from the guys at the top of the list this year all right we'll talk about those guys in just a second again Corby Carroll and gunner Henderson well something I thought about while I was making the rundown today is in 2020 and 2021, we saw a bunch of prospects come up and fail. And in, you know, in previous years, decades, that was the M.O.
Starting point is 00:05:15 And then in 2022, we obviously saw all these breakouts from prospects. Do you think the further we get away from that COVID-shortened season where there was no minor league season, and I think we felt those effects in 2021, the further we get away, the more ready some of these prospects will be at the major league level moving forward? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:33 Yeah. I think there's like a roundabout way of how you said that that's probably the case. There's definitely from the very bottom, just for people that in Dynasty League, I pay attention to it, the J15 class, the international class used to be the J2, as I called it, the July 2nd, now it's January 15th. That class is about to sign. And what I'm saying here is, is like the development has been awful. Like since COVID, whether it's a scouting or the development is really produced almost nobody.
Starting point is 00:06:01 Since 2019, about the only prospect to feel like it's produced is Jason Dominguez. And we have seen that across levels. You know, I thought it would be after COVID, you kind of thought you'd have like a substantial like, oh, this is the level where people struggled. But it's kind of been all over the board. And I always come back to that thing a couple years ago that Craig Counsel talked about that the transition from AAA to the majors is more difficult than it's ever been before. And he was talking about Heston, uh, Kira at that time.
Starting point is 00:06:30 I've done that with his name a lot too. Yeah, I totally just went into Heston Kirstead there. And you're seeing that and you have just like such a backtrack now of players like Jared Kelnick, Joe Adel. I mean, those are the poster children for it right now of the lack of development. And theoretically, we could chalk that up to just this crazy mixed up time where guys had really, really bad development. If injuries came into play, both Joe Adele and Jared Kelnick did suffer injuries during that
Starting point is 00:06:58 exact same time too. So yeah, I think like round about how you said it, the further we get away from it, teams have a different way to prepare for players. There's probably a different process. And now that there's the knowledge that these guys, there's extra compensation and teams are going to be more aggressive in how they're treating these guys, we're just going to see a hyperaggression put to these prospects that hopefully is also attached to their training process. There's a player we're going to talk about. And it's actually something you tweeted me about, or you text me about earlier today, that there's a guy that we just saw on the AFL that typically feels like he'd have been maybe a year and a half away, that there's already
Starting point is 00:07:36 rumors he's going to come up this year. And I think that's all part of the same plan that teams are all changing the scope of what they're doing. Baseball is becoming a little bit more centralized and stolen bases are going to be easier. And now we're going to have challenges for behind the plate that these teams are just being able to prep these guys at a better way that we don't have to wait five years for at least the top guys. So yeah, that's just me kind of like self-working.
Starting point is 00:07:58 it out as you answered that question to hopefully give a semi-fluid answer. All right. So let's jump into Scott's top 100 prospects. Spoiler, we're not going to talk about all top 100, but we are going to jump around a little bit. And we'll start with the top two. Names that Scott has already mentioned, his number one prospect is Gunner Henderson, who is a traditionally shortstop with the Orioles, but he played third base last year. That's where he'll have eligibility on both CBS and insights like NFBC. I guess there's a chance he could earn shortstop if he plays there this season. Yeah, he'll play some shortstop, I'm sure.
Starting point is 00:08:30 And then Corbyn Carroll, who is an outfielder with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who I spoke about extensively on yesterday's podcast as well. Scott, the early ADP for both of these guys, 92.4 for Gunner Henderson. Corby Carroll is at 72.1. So about 20 spots higher than Gunner Henderson. I looked up Bobby Witt's ADP from last year. It was 82.2. So basically split the difference there right in between.
Starting point is 00:08:53 What do you think about the early cost for each of those guys? I don't think it's so far off from where I have them. I do have Henderson ahead of Carroll, and so maybe I'm priced out of the Carroll range there. I have a little bit of a question with him how much home run power is actually going to be there. And those are questions that have followed him throughout his professional career. It was a very short amount of time he spent in the minors, at least in terms of games played, between the pandemic and he missed most of the following gear with the injury, always raked.
Starting point is 00:09:30 But, you know, most of it came at AA and AAA and we've talked about it with the Diamondbacks pitching prospects, how favorable those parks are for hitters and for power. And Alec Thomas kind of faked us out with the power at those two levels. And maybe Corby and Carroll will, to a lesser extent. It's just a small concern. He, I think more likely than not, he'll be a pretty good source of power. And I do expect him to be a good source of speed. and hit for a pretty good average and all of that.
Starting point is 00:09:58 I prefer Henderson both because I think there are fewer questions about the power production and because at that point in the draft, we talk about how outfield is weak and it is, but at that point in the draft, it's kind of your last chance to grab a third baseman you feel good about. And so there's a bit of a position scarcity thing going on there when we're talking a redraft situation. Can somebody answer the question as to why Corbyn Carol's picture on MLB,
Starting point is 00:10:32 minor league baseball.com, he has sun lotion all over his face. He does that a lot. He wears a lot of sun lotion. I'm good at suntan lotion. Funny enough, I mentioned this before. I got to be a part of a private signing that he did just a little bit ago,
Starting point is 00:10:48 like a couple months ago. And I'm pretty sure he was dolled up with that too because he was going out to Salt River a couple of the games. Listen, man, you are understating the importance of taking care of your skin in a very brutal son. So that, if anything, that should raise him up a few notches that he is making sure he is fighting off cancer. Welles, do you agree with Scott's point earlier that he made that maybe it doesn't feel like Corby and Geller Henderson are of the Julio Rodriguez ilk or a Ronald Acuna type prospect, this generational type player and fantasy player that we've seen in years past. Do you feel that way as well? Yeah, I think that, I think it's a perception.
Starting point is 00:11:26 I think perceptually, yes, that completely agree. Like year after year, it's Vladimir, it's a cune, Julio Rodriguez, Juanda Franco, you had Kellnick in there even at that time. Like, it felt, and we laugh now, it felt much bigger than Gunner and Corbyn Carroll did. Because also, Gunner and Corbyn Carroll really weren't up at this level. Like what they did in the minors, they dominated such a high level with guys coming off the list that they just kind of boosted up. And that wasn't necessarily the case.
Starting point is 00:11:54 Guys like, Julio and Vlad, they would kind of hover. They'd hover in that like four or five range. And all of a sudden they would just get in there. And I think like, I thought you were actually going to ask me a different question. I thought you're going to ask me my assessment of what Scott says about Corbyn Carroll. And no, I don't agree. And we actually had this conversation like a month ago. I disagree about the concerns on Corbyn Carroll's power versus Gunner Henderson.
Starting point is 00:12:15 As a matter of fact, Corbyn Carroll had isolated the ISO power metric. ISO was less than Gunner Henderson and only one time in their entire minor league career, and that was low A. Every other time Corbyn Carroll outperform that. And as we talked about, Corbyn Carroll put up absurd home run numbers across the board, even though it is a little bit more of a hitter environment. But both of them lack that crazy high physical upside that we look in like number one overall picks. It kind of seems like Corbyn Carroll, but I would agree with it doesn't look like a player
Starting point is 00:12:47 that's going to hit like 30 home runs out the gate like Julio Rodriguez does. And Gunner Henderson doesn't look like a player that's going to put up a 2030 season like Bobby Whit Jr. did. So, yeah, they both kind of lack some of that, that upside of the superstar. It looks like they're going to be really good fantasy players. It's almost like, hey, we're about to get, you know, Austin Riley and Cedric Mullins or something like that. And it's like that doesn't get everybody super exes. Those are weird comps. But that doesn't get everybody excited like Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
Starting point is 00:13:17 The name that comes to mind for me when I think of Corby and Carroll is Starling Marte. again, I don't think that's underselling him. If he turns out to be a 280 plus hitter with 20 homers and, you know, 35 to 40 seals, that's an awesome fantasy player. That's, you know, a second round pick for fantasy. And, you know, just getting all formats in here. Like, one thing Starling Marte has always been bad at is walking. And that shouldn't be an issue for Corbyn't care.
Starting point is 00:13:41 So, you know, maybe even better. And, you know, I don't want to argue this round and round because it'll take up half the podcast. But just for posterity, I do want to say my concerns about Carol's power. or is more the kind of parsing you have to do when deciding between one and two, then, oh, I think Corbyn Carroll's only going to hit a dozen homers. And so I don't want, like, if he hits 25 home runs this year, ha, ha, Scott, you're an idiot. I don't think you should say that because I certainly think that's in the realm of possibility for Carol.
Starting point is 00:14:11 Of course, you know, I can't, I can't make every take I have, I can't make myself immune from the accusation of idiocy for every claim I have. But for this particular one, none of them we can. I'm doing it. For what it's worth, Seamer has up the projection on Corby Carroll's home run output to 20 this season. And that's over 128 games. So, you know, if he plays 150, you know, maybe we could see even more than that for Corby Carroll. Compared to that too, Gunner is 21 over 139.
Starting point is 00:14:43 So I just want to point that out. Yep, that is fair. Top 50 prospects on Scott's top. 100 list that are expected by my estimation to be on opening day rosters. And the names that I have here, Tristan Kossis, Scott's 13th ranked prospect. Number 18 is Ezekiel Tovar, shortstop with the Rockies. Number 21, Josh Young, a third baseman with the Rangers. Number 42, Oswald Parraza, shortstop with the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:15:07 And number 48 is Logan O'Hoppy, a catcher with the Angels. Scott, I'm going to throw the corner infielder's your way, whilst you're going to get the middle infielders here. Tristan Kossis and Josh Young. I think there's lots to be excited about for both. I think it was weird that Josh Young struck out as much as he did last year at the Major League level. He didn't really strike out that much in the minor league level.
Starting point is 00:15:27 And then Tristan Kossis, the thing that stands out to me most, he only played 27 games. He really finished strong, showing power to all fields. I mean, we're talking opposite field, home run off Garrett Cole, over the green monster. I mean, that is super impressive stuff for Tristan Kossis. So I am interested in both Casas and Josh Young. They're going outside the top 200 right now in early ADP.
Starting point is 00:15:50 Yeah, you should be interested. I'm interested, too. Kossis is somebody I've always been high on. I've seen comparisons for him ranging from Joey Vado to Freddie Freeman. And the production in the miners hasn't backed it up. He's had some trouble staying healthy. He also missed time in 2021 representing the United States and the Olympics, I think it was, right? Yep.
Starting point is 00:16:12 Um, so it, he didn't always get the volume that, uh, you would expect him to get. But I mean, he showed the skills after his call up to the majors. The walk rate was ridiculous and that was a constant for him in the miners. And opposite field power that for a left-handed hitter is going to play really well with the green monster, Finway Park. So I think, I think he has a very high ceiling. Obviously not going to be a base dealer, but, um, in terms of everything else, you want from an offensive player.
Starting point is 00:16:44 I think Tristan Kossis has the potential to deliver on it. Yeah, the young strikeout situation is concerning. I mean, a 38% strikeout rate, particularly from a guy who even before he emerged as a power hitter in the minors. Like, he was a hit tool guy. He was great plate discipline guy. So that it just went completely wildly the opposite direction in his first look at them in the majors,
Starting point is 00:17:11 is pretty discouraging. His numbers on sliders in particular, just dreadful. And so he's actually lower in this year's rankings than he wasn't last year's rankings. Like the promotion actually damaged his prospect stock, which happens sometimes. But he's still projected to be the ranger starting third baseman. You could make the case, okay, he missed most of last year with a fractured foot and even looking at his AAA numbers. There's reason to think maybe he was a little rusty.
Starting point is 00:17:37 He wasn't in mid-season form when he got that late-season call-up. So, you know, you don't want to just, you don't want to just toss the guy overboard at the first signs of trouble if you've been invested in him in a Dynasty League. I do have, I used to think he was a very safe prospect, and I don't know that safe is a word I described to him anymore. It was a really small sample size, 26 games with the Rangers, but again, Josh Young struck out a bunch during that time, 38%. Scott, I will point out that it was the shoulder last year for Josh Young. It was the foot the year before, so he's dealt with injury after injury, but point taken
Starting point is 00:18:17 regardless. Welsh, Ezekiel Tovar and Oswald Paraza. Tovar is with the Rockies. He missed a bunch of time last year due to injury as well, but when he played, he was very good. 71 games, he hit 319, 14 homers, 17 steals, a 927 OPS,
Starting point is 00:18:33 and then Oswald Paraza got up to a slow start last year, but from June 1st on in the minors, he hit 2. 291 with 14 homers, 22 steals, played 18 games with the Yankees, and looked really poised. Solid plate discipline, 10% walk rate, 16% strikeout rate. I really like what I saw from Oswald Paraza in the small sample size last year. The early 80P Tovar going at 259, Paraza at 360. So if you play in deeper leagues, you can get either one of these guys as a middle infielder.
Starting point is 00:19:03 Yeah, and I just want to not to backtrack just one second. I just want to come back to the young things. I don't want to interrupt anybody. but I am fully in the camp. I just want to say that that shoulder injury, during spring training, I was there watching him walking around with a brace on his arm, doing nothing.
Starting point is 00:19:17 He just had an arm bra. That guy went almost a full year without seeing pitches. And then he all of a sudden was staying with rookies in ACL and Complex. He played in Complex League. He went up to AAA and then he was in the majors. It was a crazy adjustment that like, I definitely think we can be picky at him. But there's a lot of missed time and not a lot of time to readjust.
Starting point is 00:19:38 And I'm not surprised that a guy like that, after all that mistime, might have a little bit of trouble with sliders after like 100 and something games between playing in rookie ball to AAA and then the majors. It's just a big adjustment. Tovar kind of the same thing. With the mistime, I thought this was a guy that was not going to get pushed. And I thought he was going to probably play in the AFL again. But they didn't. They let him get up there. He had a great minor league season, 14 homers, 17 stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:20:02 You know, statistically, he's been up there. The walk rate, I don't love it. In the majors, it was 5%. it was 8% in AA and AAA and AAA and it had been lower than that in the lower levels. So I do worry that that's going to be a problem with his making consistent contact, probably like a 15-15 homer guy. You know, funny enough, I think like in my actual ranks, I'm going to value Tovar over. But if you talk about value, Paraza is a better value,
Starting point is 00:20:26 especially if he is going to be able to get that job. And they're going to give him all the opportunity to get that job. And I think they're more incentivized to not bring Volpe up immediately, unless they trade Torres, and they're going to give Praza that. I mean, you're looking at a theoretical 2020 guy. You know, he hit 19 homers in 99 AAA games with 33 stolen bases. Steamer projections is eight homers with 10 stolen bases in 66 games. If you give him a full season, I think he makes a type of contact.
Starting point is 00:20:53 He's got some sneaky power. He absolutely can steal and make a difference. There's only downside is hitting lower in the order. What did you say was 350 for Praza? 360. I mean, I think that's crazy. I think that's a crazy good value. And for all intensive purposes, I see Tovar as more of a 15-15 guy who in the future is going
Starting point is 00:21:11 to hit higher in the lineup. I do not think that happens this year. And that's going to put them at probably low run and RBI totals. And I'm a little bit worried about the walks and strikeouts. Colorado's an extra benefit. I like Paraza and redraft more this year and might even be able to jump up list. And then there might be a bounce back on Tovar into future years. But I would take Parza with the discount definitely for this year.
Starting point is 00:21:33 I think the one mitigating factor there is, like, like Tovar is the Rocky shortstop, and they don't have many other places to go. The Yankees have a few different places they could go at shortstop other than Paraza, including a prospect who ranks well ahead of him on my list, Anthony Volpe. But, you know, Isaiah Kinearfelef is going to be back, much to the chagrin of Yankees fans everywhere. And, you know, Parraza was having trouble finding his way into the lineup
Starting point is 00:22:00 toward the end of last season. So I'm hopeful that he gets an honest look from the, Yankees and Aaron Boone this year, but it's not, it's not the slam dunk it is for Ezekiel Tovar. I'd also say, remember the Rockies. The Rockies are, you know, one like, uh, one drink night away from signing Jose Aglacius back to the team on a two-year deal and pushing Tovar back. They're not, that is not something that they won't do. So true. Just remember that. Uh, the one of their name on this list was Logan O'Hoppy, who I mentioned. I think we all expect him to be on the opening day roster for the Angels. He came over in the Brandon Marsh trade last year. And he's a catcher who put
Starting point is 00:22:35 up monster numbers last season in the minors, 283 batting average, a 416 on base percentage, 26 homers, and a 960 OPS. Max Stasi is still signed to the team, but I don't think that's going to factor in here, Scott. I think O'Hopi is already the better defensive catcher, and I think they want to see what he could do at the plate as well. So maybe it's like 90, 100 games for him, but if you play in a two-catcher league, he is going to factor in those leagues. Yeah, he needs to be drafted in all two-catcher leagues. The thing they does that's most impressive, is get on base. Cue the Jonah Hill, Jiff.
Starting point is 00:23:10 416 on base percentage overall last year. It was 4.73 after he got traded from the Phillies to the Angels. And he just, like, his power production went bananas too. Not that he wasn't having a great... Like, he already looked like one of the the biggest risers among prospects
Starting point is 00:23:25 before that trade, but he just took it to another level afterward, got that late season promotion. I think the whole package looks a little bit like Will Smith in terms of being a disciplined hitter with power who earns high marks defensively, so you don't worry about that impacting his playing time.
Starting point is 00:23:45 It's somebody to get excited about for sure. Who would you rather have Logan O'Hoppy or Gabriel Moreno talking about young catchers that might be splitting a little bit of time? I'd rather have O'Hopi. For this season, Walsh? Yeah. Yeah, I'd rather have O'Hopi
Starting point is 00:24:01 just because I think he will play more than Gabriel Moreno from the jump, you know, once we get to, you know, a couple of months in, I think, you know, Moreno could take over as the starter for the Diamondbacks, but I think O'Hoppy will get more played appearances from the jump. So I'd go with him. And I don't know, like, Moreno has a really good hit tool. But other than 2021, when in very limited time, he showed good power.
Starting point is 00:24:24 It hasn't shown a lot. Like, I'm not sure he's a power hitter at all. And I think, you know, he's kind of a weird case. He's not in my top 100 prospects of Gabriel Moreno because he's technically, he technically doesn't qualify as a rookie anymore. Yeah, he's out of that. He didn't lose eligibility because of it bats. And so, you know,
Starting point is 00:24:41 sometimes those players do make their way on other prospect rankings around the industry. And I think he'll be ahead of O'Hopi on most of those lists, where they do include Moreno. But, yeah, I think, you know, probably a better real-life prospect than fantasy. Are any of the decisions? Because, Frank, you were like, this year, does it change in a full dynasty? Is Gabriel Moreno take the lead later? or is it still Logan O'Hopi?
Starting point is 00:25:05 I think Moreno probably still has more long-term upside. I mean, he has to lift the ball more. That's what it comes down to. He hits too many ground balls. He makes a lot of contact, but if he ever wants to tap into power, he's got to lift the ball more. So I think there's probably some more untapped potential with him
Starting point is 00:25:20 than there is for O'Hopi in a dynasty league. But, I mean, for this year, I would go with Logan O'Hopi. I don't know if you agree or not, Welsh. Yeah, no, it's interesting. I think it's super close. I'm on Logan O'Hopi. I've got him, if you're playing a 15th, 15 team league, I would be comfortable drafting him as a starter on the back end.
Starting point is 00:25:36 I think people are a little too gung-ho about Gabbro-Marino taking over that job. I think it's really interesting. I actually think there's kind of this, we're seeing the blueprint of how teams are going to treat these awesome young catchers that we get excited about. And nobody wants to hand the reins over. You know, if Francisco Alvarez is going to even be any form of a catcher, they're going to have him hitting and they're going to have him kind of playing on the back end.
Starting point is 00:25:57 Moreno, the same thing. You might see it with Logan O'Hopi. You know, they might not be comfortable yet. And I think that's going to be kind of the few. future poll for a lot of these other catchers that are going to be coming up, whether it's the Pirates guys, the Dodgers guys, are they going to play other positions? I just don't know how many teams are comfortable handing over the catching gig to a rookie unless their name is Adley Rutchman. Yeah, and of course they have to be good defensively. And, you know, for Logan O'Hoppy,
Starting point is 00:26:21 he actually has that in his favor too. So that's why I think he's going to be the starter for the Angels on opening day. Hopefully, that's just my take. We'll see what happens in spring training there. Top 50 prospects on Scott's list that I think will be on the opening day roster for their respective teams, but not entirely sure. I guess there's still an outside chance that something weird happens and they don't make it on opening day. And this list includes Scott's number nine prospect, Miguel Vargas, with the Dodgers. You know, could play some third base, could play the outfield for them.
Starting point is 00:26:50 Francisco Alvarez, catcher slash DH for the Mets. And Matt Mesh, Mervis, who is a first baseman with the Chicago Cubs. They signed Eric Hosmer this offseason. I, you know, I still think there's a better chance than not. Mervis could be the DH on opening day, but just a slight bit of doubt. If you have listened to a fantasy baseball podcast this offseason, you have heard about Matt Mervis, who jumped three different levels last year, and he mashed at every single one of them.
Starting point is 00:27:16 And then Welsh and I saw him out in the Arizona Fall League, where the first game I saw him, boom, home run. I was like, are you kidding me with this guy? And then I see him in the Fall Stars game, which, you know, again, this is a collection of the best within the Arizona Fall League, and he hits an opposite field home run there too. So it's just he could do no wrong right now.
Starting point is 00:27:35 Matt Mervis has been on fire. Scott, you'll get these three. Miguel Vargas, Francisco Alvarez, Matt Mervis. Do you think that they will be on their respective opening day rosters? My guess for all three is the same as yours. Yes. I think the odds may be lowest for Francisco Alvarez, who we saw at the end of last season,
Starting point is 00:27:58 but it doesn't seem like, He basically, he was mostly just called up to play some DH for the Mets. And it doesn't seem like they're ready to turn catching duties over to him. They did trade James McCann this offseason, but they signed Omar Mervailles. So they do have alternatives while they're waiting for Alvarez to prove ready. But, you know, I still think there's a good chance he does make the right. roster is kind of the backup catcher in a part-time DH and they kind of ease him in to the role, to the role that maybe he feels for the rest of the career.
Starting point is 00:28:38 I'm not sure he's ever going to be in a position where he's a true number one catcher as opposed to a DH who sometimes catches. But tons of power there and he'll be catcher eligible in fantasy. So if he does make the roster easily, I think that pushes him into the top 12 at the position, But even with the doubt right now, I'd say everyone in two catcher leagues should be looking to draft Francisco Alvarez, probably in the top 15 still. Miguel Vargas, I have him ninth, as you pointed out. You're not going to see him much higher than that on many lists. He does seem to be a little bit divisive.
Starting point is 00:29:22 Like, everybody acknowledges he can hit. He looks like a guy who's going to hit 290. plus every year of his life. He hit 300 plus every stop in the minors, basically. And that should come really easily to him. The concerns are where is he going to play defensively, which lowers him in a lot of real-life lists. And from a fantasy perspective,
Starting point is 00:29:44 there seem to be some questions of how much power he's actually going to provide. Is he only going to be a 20-homer guy? Is he going to be able to grow into more than that? Eileen, yes, Eileen that this is going to be a middle of the line of force over time. The plate discipline is so good
Starting point is 00:30:07 and he's just, the hitting comes so easily to him that I think there's enough power there for him to build on and to grow into. And like visually at the plate, He like reminds me of Miguel Cabrera when he first came up for the Marlins. Now I'm not going to say Miguel Vargas is going to have a career like Miguel Cabrera had.
Starting point is 00:30:32 There's just a certain quality he possesses that makes that that scream star to me. And so I'm very high on Miguel Vargas. And Matt Marvis, Matt Mervis, though I think you've surpassed me in your love for him, Frank, because you seem to be pretty obsessed. I'm a big Matt Mervis fan too. And I like that for being such a big power hitter, I believe he led the minor leagues in extra base hits and total bases. And with this 36 home runs, he was close to the lead in that too.
Starting point is 00:31:06 But for all that power, Matt Mervis shows a low strikeout rate. It got lower every time he moved up the ladder. And Cubs internally have made comparison. Like, they think they have another Anthony Rizzo on their hands, who's another power bat who doesn't strike out much considering. and had obviously a great career in Chicago. So there's a lot to get excited about there. Will Eric Hosmer block him?
Starting point is 00:31:30 I tend to doubt it. I think you look at the terms of that deal and where Eric Hosmer's been in recent years and it seems more like a contingency signing, but I doubt they signed him to get zero at bats. So it is going to have some impact on Mervis's playing time, even if it's a small one. I think there's a chance that those guys,
Starting point is 00:31:52 guys kind of just shuffle back and forth between first base and DH. And I don't think it's a problem for Hosmer to be around. I've said this before on record saying, I think Hosmer being there could actually help Matt Mervis. Having a veteran like that who's been there, he's done that. Former top prospect, I actually don't have a problem with Hosmer being there for Matt Mervis's value. A little sneak peek behind the curtain here.
Starting point is 00:32:12 Our rankings will go live on Tuesday, January 17th on the site. And my number 21, 20, 2021 and 22 first baseman this year, are Tristan Kossis, Matt Mervis, and Miguel Vargas. So I am pretty excited. It is hard to separate those guys. I agree. It's going to come down to how they're looking in spring training, probably. I'll start moving with them up and down the list accordingly.
Starting point is 00:32:38 More on Vargas in just a little bit, because the Dodgers did make a small trade today. Might affect his playing time. We'll figure that out. I have three more prospects here who are a true 50-50, in my opinion, for opening day. And Welsh, you're going to get these three. Two monster prospects here. We're talking top five on basically everyone's list, and then someone who's a little bit further down.
Starting point is 00:32:59 Jordan Walker, who is expected to play outfield for the Cardinals, is Scott's number four prospect. Grayson Rodriguez, arguably the top pitching prospect in the game for the Baltimore Orioles. He is Scott's number five prospect. And then a little bit lower down, we have Oscar Coloss, who is an outfielder with the White Sox. He's number 40 for Scott.
Starting point is 00:33:16 Welsh, what do you think about the chances for these three making the opening day roster for these teams? And I will reiterate, something you've said this offseason, there likely is not a Julio Rodriguez in this prospect class. But just real quick, I've moved Jordan Walker up to third. You said he's fourth. I've moved him ahead of Anthony Volpe. So he's now third.
Starting point is 00:33:36 All right, Jordan Walker number three, whilst you said if anyone can do it, if anyone could be this year's Julio, it would be Jordan Walker. Yeah, I mean, he also, like, there's a lot of physical comps and what he does as a game. He's a big, you know, six or five. He's my, I mean, it's even person, too, by the way, is like physically me, you saw me, right?
Starting point is 00:33:55 On six foot four, I'm a big guy, but you see him. You're like, dang, it's just a big dude. So he's got that Julio Rodriguez physicality. He's also one of those guys that's got, you know, light tower power with sneaky speed. And something that in the AFL, they did a full commitment to him playing in the outfield because they're like, this is going to be your new spot. There's no home for you to play third base in the future. This was the Cardinals clearly saying we are going to get this guy up now if he's ready.
Starting point is 00:34:19 and we've got to start the new position. So at the end of the year, they let him play in right field. In the AFL, not only did he play right field, but he played center field, and he played some pretty good center field, makes good contact and steal bases. So, yeah, I think if we want to be cheap and we want to get headlines, which I've kind of done, like, if there's going to be a guy that resembles Julio Rodriguez across the board,
Starting point is 00:34:38 it is Jordan Walker. Because also, Jordan Walker, we're taking in the 250s. That's where Julio was around January, February. Then the Mariners came out and said he's getting it, and then he started flying up ranks. and that same thing would happen with Jordan Walker. So I think that's the guy that could do it. And statistically, I think we would go through the roof,
Starting point is 00:34:55 19 homers, 22 stolen bases. But the things that work against him, he has only hit AA. He was great in the AFL. And this team is loaded. The Cardinals are loaded across the board. They got to make some moves. I mean, on the bench,
Starting point is 00:35:09 they've got Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman. And they've got Juan Ypes at DH, which is kind of his spot. Their outfield seems pretty set. And I think, you know, they've made the commitment like he would be a future center fielder. So if the Cardinals were to make like a big blockbuster, maybe they're going for a pitcher,
Starting point is 00:35:25 maybe they want to bring in a Pablo Lopez or something like that. I think the outfielders would be involved and it would probably be a Juania Pez moving or Dylan Carlson. And then that's a spot where we go all in on Jordan Walker and I would be there because this is just a not strikeout issued player with a good walk potential. He really legitimately could go 30-20. That's why you could take a look at those Julio Rodriguez-Gas. comps. It's just when will he come up and not to belabor it. I think all of these guys are 50-50s, but I think like, I think Walker is like a 40-60. I think Grayson is like a 30-70. I really just don't know if,
Starting point is 00:36:04 you know, if you want to talk about manipulation, the Orioles really do need to have as much control as they can. And they've got their guy that's going to hook them up for that first-round pick and that's Gunner Henderson. There's a lot of missed time with Grayson Rodriguez. I find it really hard to believe that Grayson would break camp. I'm not saying it won't happen, but he had about 70 in AAA, and that was all he had, or in 2020, he had about 70-something innings. I think they'd want to press him a little bit in the minors, control it, and then bring him up a little bit later. But Oscar Coloss is a guy that I think is the 50-50. He's already projected on roster resource as a starting outfielder. This was an older player that needed to get some innings
Starting point is 00:36:40 under his belt for missing time. He's already 24 years old. He got up to AAA. He didn't get a ton of games, but I think they've got some holes there that I don't know if they're, where they're going to fill it in other spots, unless they're going to do trades. So Oscar Coloss is a guy that he didn't do the, uh, Yelke Cespitus thing where it was like absurdly crazy bad contact, not, you know, he's striking out. Like Oscar Coloss for the most part, he had a little rough bump in AAA, for the most part, kept the strikeouts kind of low. His walk percentage was all right.
Starting point is 00:37:11 He was hitting homers. He hit at 300 across all three levels. He went from high A to AAA. I think those are good signs that the team would be willing to get him out. He could get out in the outfield. Maybe he can keep Eloy off there. So again, 50-50 Coloss, 40-60, Jordan Walker, 30-70, Grace Rodriguez. That's just my opinion.
Starting point is 00:37:28 Oscar Coloss, the numbers last year in the minors. He hit 314, as you mentioned, 300 at every level, 23 home runs, and an 895 OPS. I know the White Sox signed Andrew Benintendi this offseason, but they are a team that could use another lefty in that lineup. And I think Oscar Coloss can fit in there. you know, with Ben Intendi and Grindal, who's a switch hitter at this point. So, yeah, I'm definitely interested in. I want to see how he does in spring training. I think there's a legit shot for Oscar Coloss on opening day.
Starting point is 00:37:56 Yeah, there needs to be more talk about him. I feel like I haven't seen a lot and his numbers. I mean, especially when you consider he hadn't really played since 2019 between the pandemic and there was a delay for the White Sox signing him. And like, he should have been really rusty. And he just, especially, as the year went on and he moved up to to double A. He just
Starting point is 00:38:19 mashed. And I want to throw out too. I know you are. And what's something that's interesting, I just want to throw out is my personal ranking on him. I have met 39 and if I can give years away unless you've changed it, you have met 40. That's what I had on my list before you man. So I mean, you and I were locked up and neither one of us
Starting point is 00:38:35 had access to each other's ranks. I completely agree that he's, he's very underrated. It might even cheaply be thrown into kind of like what Yuelki did. And, you know, there's a lot of like, Like, you know, people will throw in the lack of success with some of the Cuban players that come over immediately. And it gets really stupid. It has nothing to do with it because Oscar Coloss is a gamer.
Starting point is 00:38:55 This is a big time power hitter. What's his, what's his ADP in NFBC right now? Let me pull that up for you. Frank, look that up. I was going to say, like, yeah, he started out. He's Cuban. He's a Cuban defector. He was the Cuban Otani, if you remember, if everyone remembers.
Starting point is 00:39:12 But I say he last played in 29. It was in Japan. He spent a couple of years. years in Japan. So Colos has been around. He's seen some things. He's, he's pretty well seasoned for a guy who did have that long layoff and is still only 24. And he was pitching at that time, too. That's why he was the Cuban Otani because he would throw a little bit. It wasn't really starting. It was more in relief. And he's completely scrapped that to become a hitter and just massive success across three levels in his pro debut. I think it speaks volumes. He is the 370th player off the board right now at
Starting point is 00:39:45 NFBC. So about 10 spots behind Oswald Parraza, if you want to take a shot on either one of those guys. Yeah, I love it. Let's take a break. Before we do that, reminder, again, I already mentioned this. I'm out next week, but here is the program schedule for next week again. Live streams on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon from 3 to 4 p.m. Eastern Time. So we're not going to be live at night. If you want to watch, it's again, 3 to 4 p.m. Eastern Time next Tuesday and Wednesday. and we'll have podcasts in your audio feed Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings. Questions are starting to roll in,
Starting point is 00:40:16 so you can always leave a five-star rating on Apple and throw the question in the review, or you can email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Let's take a break, and we'll be back right after this. Some news and notes here from Wednesday, the Dodgers acquired Miguel Rojas from the Marlins in exchange for minor league infielder Jacob Amaya, and last year Rojas hit 236 with six home runs
Starting point is 00:40:39 and nine steals. I don't think we have much interest at all for him in fantasy, but Scott, we talked about Miguel Vargas and earlier in the off-season, we were pretty optimistic. There's all these places available to play for Miguel Vargas.
Starting point is 00:40:53 Then they signed JD Martinez, and now they trade for Miguel Vargas. The cream rises to the top. If Miguel Vargas is performing in spring training, I think they're going to let him play. But it's just annoying that there's one more amount to feed now for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yeah, a little.
Starting point is 00:41:09 bit, but I'd kind of look at this another way. I mean, usually when the Dodgers are acquiring players to block people, they're acquiring like Trey Turner or Max Scherzer, you know, like they're, these are not normal Dodgers acquisitions, Miguel Rojas, and a clearly past his prime, J.D. Martinez. These are guys that they're bringing in to fill out the roster. And Ken Rosenthal reported during the winter meetings that they're kind of looking to have more of a youth movement this year, which would feature prominently,
Starting point is 00:41:45 among others, Miguel Vargas, I would imagine. So you look at the roster before they traded for Miguel Rojas and there wasn't a lot of people who could play shortstop. That's the one thing he can still do really well. He's not much, I mean, he was never a power hiter, but he used to hit for average, doesn't do it anymore. But he can still play shortstop. And so I expect Gavin Lux is going to be the primary option
Starting point is 00:42:09 at Shorestop for the Dodgers still, but they need somebody who they can trust to capably field the position there to back them up and dispel them on occasion. So that's what I think Miguel Rojas is there for. And I don't really think it's going to impact Vargas's timeline or playing time. All right, Nelson Cruz signed a one year of $1 million deal with the Padres. Cruz is now 42 years old, and he did struggle last season. He hit 234 with 10 home runs, and he's 651 OPS, missed time for various ailments,
Starting point is 00:42:39 groin, back, ankle, quad, knee, and then his season was ended with eye surgery. He dealt with inflammation that was apparently blocking his vision. So I guess if you want to look at a class half full, maybe that was affecting Nelson Cruz's output last season. Welsh, Rosser Resource, for now, has Matt Carpenter in left field and Nelson Cruz at DH. I don't know, I think you just kind of follow the money here. $1 million. I don't know how much Nelson Cruz is going to play, actually. Yeah, I actually don't think this is any lock that he's going to even break camp.
Starting point is 00:43:11 They're going to bring, the camp opens up in a month. I'm going to be out there. Very first day, I'm actually planning to go to the Padres. So I will be reporting back to you, gentlemen. And this is like another one of those guys I want to check out that I think he's a team leader of sorts with a lot of those players. You bring him in, you see if it's going to work. You see if the bat is still there. You compare it up against some great talent. If they still see it's there, I think they play them out. If not, it's an easy cut. I think it's a big boost in spring training.
Starting point is 00:43:36 I'm not sold. I'm not sold at all that he is going to break this roster. But if he does, I think this would be like a really sneak end of mock draft today where he was taken like right towards the end of a 15 team roto. And I was like, oh, it's a good sneaky point if you hadn't already locked up your util spot. But yeah, I agree. I don't think anything is a lock.
Starting point is 00:43:53 It's the Fallen Knife Syndrome we've talked about. Strikeout percentage went back up. He was walking a little bit more, but he was hitting for absolutely no power. And he was on par. as bat-up was on par with how it usually is and the batting average completely tanked. This is a big crew of guys that they've got out here. And if anything, this might just be a placeholder
Starting point is 00:44:10 for Fernando Tatis coming in, but they just keep bringing in these guys, the Matt Carpenter's and stuff that can play lots of spots. So we'll have to see. And I want to stress the $1 million contract because, I mean, that that tells you how the front offices around the league are viewing Nelson Cruz at this stage, that he got a $1 million.
Starting point is 00:44:31 million dollar contract. Yeah. We did have another signing. The A-s signed Japanese pitcher Shintaro Fujinami to a one-year deal. Jeff Passon reported that Fujimami is expected to start in the Oakland A's rotation. Really interesting story, actually. I watched a 20-minute YouTube video about him today. He was a phenom in Japan. He came out of high school in 2013, and then he went straight to the pros. And he was great from 2013 to 2016. And then was very up and down. from 2017 to 2021. And he got his career back on track last season.
Starting point is 00:45:06 Again, this is Shintaro Fujimami, 277-ERA, 112 whip, 115 strikeouts over 107 and a third innings last season. He's 6 foot 6. He throws hard with the fastball. He's got a really good slider. Does struggle with control. So just a name you probably need to know in like AL only in the deepest of leagues. But yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:25 Have you guys looked at the Oakland A's rotation on roster resource? You want to get sick. Have you look? It's unbelievable the rotation that they're going to put out. It's the most Oakland A's thing that the A's have ever aid. So I just want to go out there. Fujimami is going to be the number five. It's their ace is Cole Irvin.
Starting point is 00:45:47 And it just progressively gets worse down the list. It's hands down the worst rotation in baseball. And I just don't think I had like comprehended or paid attention. I really stared at the A's a whole bunch instead of unless I was looking at the story Ruiz. It's weird because right now, and, you know, roster resource doesn't have what the final rotation is going to be, obviously, but they don't have Kyle Mueller or Ken Waldichuk in the A's. Like, Ken Waldechuk's going to be in the A's rotation, right? He looked pretty good there, especially his last couple starts.
Starting point is 00:46:16 I don't think Drew Rucinsky's going to take that there? I don't know anything about him, but apparently he revived his career in the KBO, Drew Rucenski, and he's 34 years old, so I don't know, trying to catch a Miles Michaelis or a Merrill Kelly kind of lightning in a bottle situation there with him. I think Waldichuk
Starting point is 00:46:35 will be in the rotation. I read there's a chance that they go six man which I think would suit someone like Shintaro, Fujimami as well. So we'll see what happens with the Oakland A's.
Starting point is 00:46:43 We did have a dimension change in Detroit. Comerica Park ranks dead last in home run. That's sounded funny. I know. As I was saying it, I was like,
Starting point is 00:46:53 they didn't actually change the dimensions of like the entire city of Detroit or anything. They, They, Camarica Park wound up in Dimension X with Crang and the new three-na. The new Quantumania with the Detroit Tigers. Which, I mean, I'm way far behind in Marvel stuff right now, but that trailer just looks absolutely ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:47:14 Catch up, Frank. Catch up. I really have to. There is no excuse. Comerica Park ranks dead last in home run park factors, according to sackcast the last three seasons. Their center field wall will be moved in from 422 feet to 412 feet. The same wall will be lowered from 8.5 feet to 7 feet. The wall in right center will be lowered from 13 feet to 7 feet.
Starting point is 00:47:35 And the right field wall will be also lower to 7 feet. Scott, I looked at expected home runs last year. And two of the top 10 biggest losers were Javier Baez and Riley Green. Riley Green in particular, they made all these changes to right field and right center. I think he could be a beneficiary, you know, maybe it's 15 plus home runs. But I think this is something that could benefit specifically him. Yeah, I mean, he was a big disappointment last year. And yeah, they needed to do something because famously Nick Castellanos, it seems like the best years of his career were diminished by playing at Comerica Park.
Starting point is 00:48:19 And these aren't drastic changes. You know, it's hard to get much more drastic than like what the Orioles did last year. This isn't going to transform Comerica Park the way Camden Yards was transformed. But in fact, I think I saw, let's see, who was it? Somebody on Twitter was saying, and he had the video for all of them, only 11 more home runs would have been hit there with these changes last year. Home and away, home visitors and the tigers themselves combined. That was Chris Brown of Woodward Sports.
Starting point is 00:48:54 Yeah, but I don't know that we have the full spectrum. for how differently it's going to play, because it's not just about home runs hit, of course. And I don't know that you could determine that with that much specificity anyway. It can only help. It can only help the hitters. All right. Let's get back into some prospects.
Starting point is 00:49:10 We've got about 10 minutes left here on the podcast. So we'll try to go a little rapid fire here. Two names that came over from Japan that you need to know, Scott's 64th ranked prospect, Kodi Senga, a starting pitcher with the New York Mets. And his number 83rd ranked prospect, Masataka Yoshita is an outfielder with the, Boston Red Sox. Scott, we'll come right back to you again. 30 seconds to a minute on each one of these guys.
Starting point is 00:49:32 Senga got five years, $75 million. I didn't write down the contract for Yoshita, so bad job by me. Do you have interest in either one of these guys? It's annoying that they have to take up two spots on my top 100 because there are a couple guys that I had to leave out that it would have liked to have in, but they technically are prospects because they haven't appeared in the majors yet. So, you know, Senga, they're both about 30. I think Senga 30, Yoshita 29.
Starting point is 00:49:56 Sangha has more upside 99. He's, or I think he's at 101 on his fastball before. And then the ghost, the ghost fork that was a higher rated splitter than Otanis when they were both in Japan. Durability issues, control issues, and just the uncertainty of any time somebody comes over from Japan, how all the skills are going to translate different ball slightly. Parks are different. hard to know how to evaluate a 30-year-old, an unproven 30-year-old for dynasty purposes, right?
Starting point is 00:50:31 So that's why he's 64. Yoshita doesn't have that kind of upside. He did hit 21 home runs in Japan last year. I'm pretty confident that's not going to translate to the American game. And so, you know, what kind of impact he's going to have in fantasy? Well, the Red Sox are talking them up as the lead-off hitter, and he does have good on-base skills. So who was the outfield that came over to Japan for the Reds a couple years ago and was kind of being touted. Shogo Akiyama.
Starting point is 00:51:02 Yeah, and obviously that was a complete disaster. Didn't it pan out. But, you know, Yoshida's a different player. Maybe it'll go differently. I just, I don't see a ton of upside there. Played discipline is really the calling card for Yoshita. So if you specifically play in a deeper points league, I think he's someone you want to look at 82 walks of 42 strikeouts in Japan last season. only Luis Arise had a better K rate in the majors.
Starting point is 00:51:28 So if you're just comparing those two, 21 home runs, I agree, Scott. We're not expecting that, but maybe 10 to 12 homers with a really good OBP score a bunch of runs for the Boston Red Sox. I think that's possible for... It's possible he's Alex Verdugo. And Alex Verduco is a useful player.
Starting point is 00:51:43 Don't tell steamer. I don't know if you guys saw this. The steamer projections came out. They're wild. Like 19 homers, five stolen. He hasn't stole five bases in last couple years over in the Pond. And the 19 homers, he had 21, two of the straight two last years.
Starting point is 00:51:58 I mean, the 19 seems like a wild transition for arguments sake. I talked about this on my show, Prospect 1. Sayas Suzuki went from like 38 homers and went back down to 14. And it's not, nothing is a one for one. She just got like an impeccable walk to strikeout. It's like literally double. He'd have 80 walks to 40 strikeouts and stuff like that. But he's just not, it doesn't look like the massive power hitter.
Starting point is 00:52:20 I don't even think he's hit lead off. I think he was asked about it. and kind of said he was uncomfortable with it. I mean, this is a weird, interesting take. I'm just not interested in him a whole lot. Maybe he's, Alex Verdugo is probably a really good comp because Alex Verdugo had empty stats for a lot of years. I don't see Stolenbases.
Starting point is 00:52:37 I don't see Elite Homers. Maybe he'll shock all of us, but I'm not incredibly excited about it. Not like Steamer. Steamer's wild. Yeah, you know, there wasn't a steamer projection until today because I remember looking a couple days ago and there was no projection. So right, as of now,
Starting point is 00:52:53 Yoshida is projected 298 batting average 19 homers 87 run scored five steals and a 388 on base percentage. That would be a really useful player for fantasy. So pretty off the expectations there. It was the top 10 highest Wobah in the entire league. Quoting Rob Silver, who would put that there, 372 Wobah is what his projections on right now. So, you know, take that for what it is. All right. We do have some big names that should make an impact at some.
Starting point is 00:53:23 point this season again. These are all ranked inside Scott's top 10. Number three, Anthony Volpe, shortstop with the Yankees. Number seven, Ellie De LaCruz, a shortstop with the Reds. Number eight, Jordan Lawler, a shortstop with the Diamondbacks. And number 10, Andrew Painter, a starting pitcher with the Phillies. Welsh, again, maybe going a little aggressive, including Painter in this category. I think he could be up this year, but it's, it would be, it would be an aggressive move on the Phillies part. No, it would definitely be aggressive. I think he's still a teenager, right? He's like 19, maybe he's 20 years old, but I don't think he's turned 20 yet.
Starting point is 00:53:55 He was a 19 year old who dominated all the way up to AA. Everything that I've read, though, is that he is going to be up this year. It would be incredibly aggressive, but people are talking about it. There has been shatter. Forgone conclusion, basically. Welsh, come to you, you know, a couple of quick thoughts on each of these. When do you think we see some of these guys? Yeah, I think it's a good list.
Starting point is 00:54:15 And just going with Painter real quick, I think there's a possibility. If he dominates like he did, he's going to move up to AAA quick. What are you going to get out of him sitting down? and AAA for the whole season. I think they're going to maintain innings. I do think there is an opportunity that you see him this year. I just don't know if it's a matter for fantasy because it might be more of in like a short-term relief role,
Starting point is 00:54:32 a couple starts. They really do have to maintain his, his innings. 100 innings this past year. You can't probably push him past like 130 this year, 140. So Andrew Painter's fascinating. Probably not a big interest as far as like redraft goes for me. Anthony Volpe, one of my favorite prospects in the game.
Starting point is 00:54:49 I'm with Scott. He's like a top five, top six guy for me overall. I don't care about some of the early struggles. He came back from it. I think this is a mid-season guy. Parraza and him make all the sense in the world, and they might make it quicker if they end up moving Glaber Tories in a trade. I love the power speed combo, five-tool player.
Starting point is 00:55:06 Volpe would get me incredibly excited. As would obviously Jordan Lawler, I think Volpe is up before Jordan Lawler. Jordan Lawler showed he really kind of answered all of those strikeout questions, made great contact, can steal like crazy, played A-plus defense out in the AFL and since I've seen him. And they're getting him set. to come up to the majors.
Starting point is 00:55:23 And there's already talk as well as him being up there. L.A. Dela Cruz, I have a really hard time with. I think this team might slow roll this one. So if I had to rank them, I feel like I would go Vopi, Loller, Dela Cruz, and Painter in terms of when they would come up.
Starting point is 00:55:38 All right. And a few more names here that could be up later on in the season. This is the one that Welsh referenced earlier in the show that maybe we thought there was no chance. But then I saw this article today, and apparently the Rockies are going to try and have Zach Vien up before the All-Star break. It doesn't mean that's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:55:57 Obviously, Vien has to, you know, he has to perform in the minors in order to get that call. But he is Scott's 19th ranked prospect against Zach Vien outfielder with the Rockies. Number 22 is Brett Bady, third baseman with the Mets. Number 28, Andy Rodriguez, a catcher with the Pirates. And number 38, Royce Lewis, who is probably going to have to bounce around now because Carlos Correa is back with the twins, you know, maybe some third base, some left field, something like that for Royce Lewis. He's coming back from another ACL tear.
Starting point is 00:56:22 Maybe June or July is the expectation for Royce Lewis. Scott, expectation for this group here, this upcoming season. Yeah, I think the one with, like Brett Beatty, it's, you know, it's going to kind of depend on Eduardo Escobar. Thankfully, he's not going to be blocked by Carlos Correa now because Correa is with the twins. But I really liked what I saw from Beatty. The little bit we saw of him last year was premium exit velocities,
Starting point is 00:56:52 even against left-handed pitchers and kept the strikeout rate low. And that's what we saw from Royce Lewis for a little bit of time he was up to. The guy who's now currently blocked by Carlos Correa. And just when, like, even though he's recovering from another torn ACL, I love that Lewis has already shown he can translate the skills against Major League pitching. Like, that is the most reassuring thing a prospect can do, and Lewis has done it. So good for him. Andy Rodriguez is
Starting point is 00:57:22 going to be a really interesting case because he could make the team on opening day if the pirates were willing to do that because they're the pirates and they're obviously not competing for anything and they're always pinching pennies probably not going to happen but he was ridiculous
Starting point is 00:57:39 down the stretch last season he is probably the prospect who raised his stock the most from August 1st on 386, 186, 18th, home runs in 1193 OPS, as many walks of strikeouts over his final 67 games from a catcher who can also play some outfield,
Starting point is 00:57:57 played some second base, could maybe have that hybrid role while retaining catcher eligibility. I moved him up a lot just since November when we were last talking about him. That's Andy Rodriguez. And then Zach Veen,
Starting point is 00:58:11 I'm not ruling out a Kyle Tucker outcome for Zach Veen still. I know the power hasn't been there like expected. The speed's been a lot better than expected. 55 stolen bases. But I think him being 6'4 and still being underdeveloped physically, I think there's a lot of power growth yet to come for Zach Veen, whether he's up this year or not.
Starting point is 00:58:35 And of course, Colorado makes everything go better if you're a hitter. I think there's a pretty wide range in terms of just projecting Zach Feene. What is he going to be at the major league level? Well, you and I have talked about this. and I saw him out in Arizona as well. Really wiry dude, he is super fast. Every box score I saw with him, walk and stolen base. And then the first time I saw him in a game,
Starting point is 00:58:58 walk and stolen base. So he's got a good eye at the play. He's got good OBP. I think the batting average will come. Power, I'm not entirely sure. I mean, that's just me. I mean, obviously, I'm no prospect guru. But yeah, I think the speed and the batting average
Starting point is 00:59:11 will in particular be very good for Zach Veen eventually. Other names that are right around 50 or below, that you just need to know. We're not going to talk about these, but just have them on your radar for this season. South Freelick and Outfielder with the Brewers, Hunter Brown starting pitcher, I guess, slash reliever for the Astros.
Starting point is 00:59:27 Brandon Fott, who we learned was Fought, not fat, for the Arizona Diamondbacks, a starting pitcher there. And then Edward Julian, a second baseman with the twins, Dre Jameson, another pitcher with the Diamondbacks, and Estéari Ruiz,
Starting point is 00:59:41 who is an outfielder for the Oakland Aes. He came over in the Sean Murphy trade. So should get some run, there for the Oakland A's once again. Scott, we're going to wrap up with this. Last year, you were so regretful, so remorseful that you left Spencer Strider off of your top 100 prospects.
Starting point is 01:00:00 It could have been your claim to fame. You're already famous, Scott. But anyway, is there a Spencer Strider this year? Who is on the cusp of the top 100 that, like, you want to get in, but there's just not enough room? Who is that player this year? Well, I guess I would have to say it's Cody Morris of the Guardians who I actually had at number 100 when I had originally sent you the list and I ended up leaving him off for another Guardians player chased a louder their first round pick from this past year in outfield area.
Starting point is 01:00:34 I ended up, oh, I got to get this guy in my top 100. So Cody Morris got bumped. But Cody Morris is a guy you don't see on a lot of prospect list. Sort of like Spencer Strider. He wasn't showing up on a lot of top 100 lists last year. And so I wanted to make a statement like, guys, look at Cody Morris's numbers. They've been phenomenal everywhere he's pitched,
Starting point is 01:00:50 including in the majors toward the end of last season. He was phenomenal maybe overstating it, but he was good. He was missing bats. And the couple times he started made a pretty good impression. So I don't, look, I don't think it's going to go, I don't think he's going to have a rookie season quite like Spencer Strider had because that was pretty historic.
Starting point is 01:01:11 but you know it's it's one of those things where I like to load the back end of my top 100 with guys who I aren't going to show up on a lot of top 100 list but I think they're going to make a more immediate impact just kind of put a little spotlight on them and it's getting harder and harder for me to do that because I think I just you know over the years I've come to appreciate more of the, you know, more of the dynasty focus rather than the short-term focus. And so it makes for a more traditional-looking list. But yeah, Cody Morris is just one of them. I've always been a Kyle Mueller fan.
Starting point is 01:01:55 I mentioned him earlier hoping he's in the A's rotation. I had to leave him out. Hayden Wisniewski. No chance he has Spencer Striders upside. But I think he could be pretty good this year, and I had to leave him out. So those were a few of them. It's going to make you mad. I have Cody Morris at 99.
Starting point is 01:02:12 So I officially, I acquired Cody Morris from Scott's. Everything he just said goes to me when he's successful. All the success to me, just want you to know. Who can I leave out? Well, there might be a couple guys in there. Madison, Barger, Tyler Gensary. I know I like Tyler Gensary. Royals outfielder a lot more than you do.
Starting point is 01:02:30 I'm not going to leave him out. That's another statement pick for me. All right. You get Tyler Gentry. I get Cody Morris. You heard it here first. You'll be done. Mid-January.
Starting point is 01:02:39 Hot takes for the season. Scott said it. Cody Morris is this year's Spencer Strider. Put it on the board. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Welsh. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.

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