Fantasy Baseball Today - Season Recap! Top-Five at Each Position, League Leaders & Playoff Predictions! (10/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 5, 2021

The 2021 MLB regular season is over! How'd we do (2:27)? ... Luis Rojas is out as the Mets manager (10:16). ... Top-five catchers (13:47): did Salvador Perez have the best Fantasy season for a catcher? ... Top-five first basemen (17:39): Vlad Jr. is a first-round pick for years to come. ... Top-five second basemen (19:41): where might Semien wind up? ... Top-five third basemen (25:53): Rafael Devers is a rock-solid second rounder next year. ... Top-five shortstop (30:26): elite names up top. ... Top-five outfielders (34:21): where will Juan Soto go in Roto? ... Top-five starting pitchers (40:51): don't doubt the Dodgers. ... Top-five relievers (45:45): Raisel Iglesias was awesome. ... Who led the league in each of the 5x5 stats (46:10)? ... How did 2021 compare to 2019 (49:40)? ... We wrap up with postseason predictions (58:07)!  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris and Adam. The 2021 season is officially in the books. So how do we do? Let's find out. Welcome in to our first off-season fantasy baseball today on Tuesday. October 5th, Frank Stamphle joined by Scott White, and now that the dust has settled. We will take a look at top five

at each position this year in 5x5 roto. I'll let you know if anything stood out in Head-Tead points leagues. We'll take a look at the stat leaders in each major 5-5 category, some macro-level stats and trends to compare to 2019. We'll make some playoff predictions, have a little bit of fun. But Scotty, what is up? We did it.

We did it. It's a new day. It's a new season. right now, Frank. It's a new season. Some might say the World Series hasn't happened yet. Playoffs haven't started, therefore, it is still the same season. But those some buddies are wrong. They're wrong because right here it's 2022 and you got to get used to saying in 2022. And at some point you might accidentally say 2023 because your mind's leaping ahead from the year it's already leaped ahead from. But you got to watch out for that.

2022, baby. You know what's got, given this offseason and what we have to expect between the CBA and the bargaining between the MLB and the Players Association, the next season that we're talking about might actually be 2023. So I won't completely rule that out.

Hopefully. Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. Come on, Mr. Pessimist. Yeah. There hasn't been a work stoppage in your life, has there? Were you live in 1994? Yes, I won't. Come on, Scott.

Was I alive in 1994? I was walking around in my underwear as a toddler. Come on, man. When were you born in? 91. Okay. Yeah, so, you know, I obviously, you don't recall 1994. I do not.

I do not. But let's hope that none of that actually happens here. How did 2021 actually turn out for you, Scott? What was the wind total at? What did we get up to? So I won two leagues. I won two leagues, which all things considered isn't too bad. I think I said 11 fantasy leagues last time.

One of them is the Scott White Dynasty League, which 24 teams, and most of your roster turns over from one year to the next. So it's not like I applied my 20-21 strategy to that league. So leaving it off the table, focusing really just on redraft leagues. I was in 10. And I won two. It was 20%. I mean, it could be better, but it could definitely be worse.

And it's not a bad percentage of leagues won. One of them is the podcast for the People League, which longtime listeners will know has been a thorn in my side since Heath Cummings first designed it. I think he set up the rules just to troll me. There are a lot of annoying qualities in that league. But I won. I won by the narrowest podcast.

possible margin over the two-week championship five to four to one. But I'm a champ now in that league that has always been a thorn in my side. So that's good. I won the NL-only Roto League. That was the other one I won. So that's good too. Two wins. The problem, Frank, is that it's pretty rare that I finish in the bottom half of a league.

I finished in the bottom half, I believe, of six of those 10 leagues. So, you know, two wins isn't bad. Bottom half of the league in six of ten, when you're not used to finishing in the bottom of half, that's bad. So I would say my 2021 season is a mixed bag. Was a mixed bag. It's 2022 now, right?

And I'll try to do better because I'm not happy about it. I'm not happy about it, Frank. But I'm glad I got two champions out of it. Like, if I won no championships, like I would be just totally. depressed. But yeah, you know, I think mixed bag is a good way to put it. And I've seen, I've seen a lot of mixed results on, on Twitter in general,

on fantasy baseball Twitter, right? Where, I mean, there's a lot of great players out there. And obviously, you know, people are talking about the leagues that they won. And there was a few people that were like, this was just an awful season for me. And I, you know, I'm not here to make excuses for anybody. But look, we're coming off a 60 game season last year. We knew that it was going to, A, be a weird year this year. because we didn't really know how to project

specifically pitchers coming off to short and season. But we didn't really know how much stock to put into stats and stuff from last season. So as a result, I would say that we were... There was a new ball. Yeah. And there was a rule change.

Sticky substances. Like, it was crazy. It was absolutely a crazy 2021. So look, if you had a rough year, just know that you're not alone. Because, look, as we're talking about here and as I will point out, it was specifically a mixed bag.

If you won, however, you should give yourself a pat on the back because for all the reasons I just mentioned, it was a crazy year. So I was in nine draft and hold leagues that includes seven NFBC draft champions, one standard best ball league, and then the Radslam, which is also a best ball league. I won two of my draft champions. So I won two of those nine draft and hold formats. And then I had eight redraft leagues that's not counting the Scott White Dynasty League where my team is not very good, admittedly. And I'm going to be in a multi-year rebuild. You just took over. Of course.

Somebody else's team. Yeah, so I had eight redraft leagues not counting that one. Where, you know, you have waivers, you're setting your lineups, et cetera. And I won two of those. So I won my home league back-to-back years now. It's a 12-te-to-head points keeper league. We keep up to four players per year. And.

And? And. Very in the lead here. I won Tao Wars. I want Tal Wars. I want Tal-Words, head-to-head points. 12 team league with rotosized rosters, two catchers, corner infielder,

middle infieler, five outfielders, seven starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, and unlimited IL spots. So it is a head dead points league, but it's deeper. It's deeper than we're used to talking about for that standard size league.

And it's cool, man. It's honestly an awesome moment. And look, I'm not here to just, whatever, talk about myself the entire time. But it's cool. It's very sentimental for multiple reasons. I used to like travel into the city to watch Nando Define.

and Scott Engel, someone I used to work with. They would be bidding on players in the tout mixed draft that they used to do and it's just awesome because it was like, that was my first exposure to the industry, just going there and watching, honestly, a bunch of middle-aged dudes just like throw numbers around and stuff like Al Melchior used to be there. And it was like an awesome experience.

And I used to be like, oh man, I wish like one day I could be in a league like this with like industry experts and stuff around the league around the world, really. And now I am, and now I won it. So it honestly is a really cool moment. Yeah, yeah, it's, it's, I feel you. When I won last year, it honestly felt better than I expected it to feel. Because, you know, a lot of the people you're playing against are people you used to playing against anyway,

because they're just kind of, you know, there's a lot of expert leagues out there. But for some reason, tout wars with all the, all the pageantry surrounding it, if you could call it that. Middle-aged guys throwing numbers around, right? But, you know, it's obviously one of the longstanding and most well-known industry leagues, and there's a lot of bookkeeping done for it. It's one that people, as a general rule, people don't pay attention to leagues they're not in, but that's, Tao Wars is one of the few that they do.

So congratulations, Frank. I'm proud of you. We got two Tao Wars champs on this podcast now. However, my Tout Wars League, that was one of the leagues I finished in the bottom half in this year. So I did not come close to repeating in mine. All right. So look, we're going to bounce back, Scottie. We're going to get you back on track.

I'm going to have a crown here, I guess, to defend in the Tout Wars Head, Head, Head, Points League. And then Chris, we'll get Chris back on track. And look, if we go three years in a row, you win one, I win one, Chris wins one. I will gladly take that. So next year, hopefully, the year of Chris Towers in his. towards. And of course, when I say like older dudes, just like throwing numbers around, I mean that in like the utmost respectful way. Because like, honestly, these are like pioneers in the industry and stuff. And just like people that I really do respect. And I do want to give a shout out to Ariel Cohen,

who was the defending champion. And I was going up against him in the finals. And he was gracious in defeat and texting me all throughout the week. And he wants to take me out to lunch. And just a great dude. So shout out to Ariel Cohen. Ian Khan called me. And we talked about how he had an awesome season as well. He congratulated me, so it was a really cool moment to hear from those two. Great players, Ian Khan and Ariel Cohen as well. I do want to give a shout out to one more, Sean Millerick, who won our Head to Head Points Podcast League, 12-team League.

It's obviously been around for much longer than I've been around. So your name will be etched in stone with all the other winners of that league in the past. I do have one news item that I'm going to get to, but I also saw a bunch of people dropped a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcast. basically thanking us for helping them win their championships. We love you guys. That is awesome. We do appreciate everyone who stuck around throughout the course of the season

and who did leave us one of those five-star reviews. If you haven't yet, you want to throw one in there, tell us how we helped you win your championship or if you just enjoy the podcast in general, fantasy baseball today or fantasy baseball today and five. Feel free to leave a five-star rating and review. We do appreciate it. One news item that I wanted to mention, Scott, the Mets.

They are already making moves, not wasting any time. They are not picking up the 2022 option for manager Luis Rojas, an expected move after collapsing in the second half. They finished the season 77 and 85, and they have decisions to make Javier Baez, Michael Conforto, Marcus Stroman, Noah Cindergarde, all free agents. And obviously, the best pitcher on the planet on a per inning basis

has massive injury questions heading into the off season. So it's pretty big shoes to fill, obviously, for whatever manager has to come to the big apple here. because obviously there's expectations, there's an owner that wants to win, there's media, so I don't know who it's going to be, but it will not be Luis Ross.

Nope, no, and it sounds like Jace Tingler's gone from San Diego, right? I don't think that's official yet. I haven't heard anything about Charlie Montoyo, the Blue Jays manager, but have you seen anything with him? It wouldn't surprise me if he was gone.

I have not seen anything with Charlie Montoyo, no. none of them are big name managers obviously and all of them were managing teams that underachieved I think the Padres and the Mets most people expected them to be in the playoffs at the start of the year,

especially the Padres. And the Blue Jays they were definitely considered a contender coming in but they were by far the team with the best run differential to miss the playoffs. They had a better run differential than both the Red Sox and Yankees who will be playing in the wild card game today, right?

Tuesday. And better run differential than the White Sox, better run differential than the Brewers and the Braves and the Cardinals, better than most of the playoff teams, basically, and the Blue Jays did not make it. So that was disappointing to see. And it might mean, Charlie, Montoya isn't back. But that's not my decision to make. So we shall see indeed. I, you know, I would

like to figure out just how much of that run differential came against the Baltimore Orioles this year because they had a few massive blowouts. Obviously, run differential is not an all-encompassing stat. But it usually is pretty reflective of the best teams in baseball. So yeah, the Blue Jays, it was unfortunate, but I think that they obviously are in a very good place. They need to add a few more pitchers, I think. But if Robbie Ray can pick up where he left off this year, obviously, that offense is amazing. Look, we're going to go through top five at each position. There are a lot of Blue Jays on this list. So, yeah, we will get into that right now. I mean, look, they probably have the Syung favorite, right? And Robbie Ray, two of the top

three MVP finishers, probably in Guerrero and Simeon and maybe the rookie of the year and Alec Manoa, right? Yeah. No, I mean, again, like, they're in a good spot. A lot of A lot of those names that you just mentioned, Scott, are pretty young. Obviously, Vlad and Manoa. We'll see what happens with Semyon. He's a free agent, Robbie Ray. This is the best we've ever seen from him. But he's technically, I don't think he's old.

He's kind of like in the prime of his career. It's just a matter of whether or not he can keep this up for another season. And he is 30 years old. Yeah, so, I mean, he's right there. I mean, that's not an issue. I mean, he could still pitch well. So let's do it. Let's look at the top five at each position.

I'm using five-by-five roto finish. but I will point out if there's any big differences in points leagues. And we will start at Catcher, where the top five was Salvador Perez, Will Smith, J.T. Real Muto, Buster Posey, and Mike Zanino, if you change this over to a points league, Yasmani Grandal was fifth in points over Mike Zanino, despite playing 16 less games. So that just gives you an idea of Grandals plate discipline. And I know early in the season, he was walking so much.

It was like a ridiculous amount. And then he got hot in the second half, hitting for some power. as well. He was ridiculous after coming back from that surgery. He had that knee surgery. Yep. He was the best we've ever seen. He has Monty Grundal after that procedure. And very interesting player for next year. But technically it wasn't top five in Roto, as you point out.

And speaking of catchers, you could actually find Scott's top 20 ranked catchers for the 20-22 season. Very early on, obviously things could change in the offseason, but you could find those live on the site right now. Salvador Perez is obviously the one I want to highlight here. 273 batting average, 48 home runs. 48 home runs, 121 RBI, which actually led all of baseball from a catcher. He finishes the ninth overall player in Roto.

And to put that in perspective, Will Smith, who was the second-rank catcher in Roto, was 1002nd. Ninth? 100-second. I mean, that type of disparity is just absolutely insane. The last time a catcher finished, top 15 overall, Buster Posey back in 2012. He was the 14th overall player that season.

Obviously, playing time was a huge factor for Salvador Perez. He had 665 plate appearances. J.T. Rilumuto was second at the position with 537. And I wouldn't be surprised, Scott, if for the next couple of years, we still see that plate appearance total remain high for Salvador Perez because they have a few other, well, they have another catcher coming in MJ Melendez. I don't know how early we'll see him next year. But I think as long as Salvador Perez is on the Royals, he will get at bats at DH.

He started 40 games at DH this past year. And, you know, typically he hadn't done that. In 2018, he also started 30 games at DH. But for most of his careers, almost exclusively catcher. So, you know, and obviously the way he hit justified him taking up all those at bats at DH. He's old for a catcher. He has a lot of mileage on him, obviously. But, I mean, it wasn't just this season that was historic. In 2020, short as it was, he was by far the most productive catcher as well. It's just, we kind of wrote it off or

downplayed it because of all that took the 2020 season was or wasn't. And he ended up being a nice mid-round value in fantasy. Obviously, I mean, historic season for a catcher set the record for home runs in a season by a player who primarily played catcher. And I believe the only other catcher ever to lead baseball on home runs was Johnny Bench twice. Salvador Perez wasn't alone with 48, right? He tied with Guerrero, I believe. Yep, yep, that is correct. But still, I mean, historic season, obviously.

And you mentioned he led all hitters in our basketball. I like outright. I will, I'll pull it up again because I was so like taken back, taking a back when I saw it. I was just like, no, this can't be real. Yeah, he did.

Yeah, Salvador Perez 121. Jose Abraeo 117. To Oscar Hernandez 116. That's your top three. There's no disputing who will be the first catcher drafted next year. Let's move on to first base, the top five at the position.

Vladimir Guerrero, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Austin, Riley technically had first base eligibility there this year. He only played 10 games, so he will not have first base eligibility next year, not on CBS at least. So if you want to exclude Austin Riley, then Jose Abraeu would be the fifth first baseman. Vlad Jr. finishes as the first. Number one,

Numero uno in Roto, the first overall player this season. 311 batting average, 48 homers, 123 run scored 111 RBI, even chipped in four steals. He had a, the 941 OPS are better in every month except August when he had a 51% ground ball rate. And as long as he keeps that launch angle up, which is what we said in the offseason last year, where if he can just hit more line drives and fly balls, then we might actually, look, no one expected this, but we might see that breakout season coming for him. If he keeps that launch angle up, he will be a top three to five pick for years to come. I don't know how many years, but a lot of them.

Yeah, he will. And that was the upside he was thought to have. It kind of had all clicked at once this year for the 22-year-old, which, given how young he is, yeah, it's a very bright future. And it's rare in these modern times to see a non-base dealer finish number one in Roto. So that shows you the kind of year he had. at bat. In fact, it looks like he led the majors and run scored, actually.

Yes, he did. Yep, 123. Mm-hmm. You know what's crazy? Three Toronto Blue Jays in the top five. Vlad Jr., 123, Bobeshet was second with 121, Marcus Semyon at 115.

It's crazy. It's absolutely crazy. Run scoring machine, that run differential. Man. Yeah. Let's move on to second base. Trey Turner was the number one second baseman

this year. Marcus Semyon was second. Ozzy Albi's was third. Jorge Polanco and then Jose Altuve. And if you look at points leagues, then Whitmerryfield actually sneaks in the top five in that format. Marcus Semyon has now finished as a top 20 player overall in two of the last three seasons. And Ozzy Albies, I wanted to point out, very quietly,

goes 30, 20, 20, 30 homers, 20 seals. He's one of five players to do that this year. Fernando Tatis, Shohei Otani, Jose Ramirez, Cedric Moriz. Mullen's are the other four that accomplished that feat. We spoke about Semi in a little bit recently, Scott, and basically, I think it doesn't completely control his value, but where he signs in the offseason will have some effect on it, obviously. Because if he goes somewhere like San Francisco or even back to Oakland, I guess, as a possibility, I think that we have to lower him or lower our expectations at least coming

off this year where he played in three different venues, but they were all fantastic for all. offensive output. Yeah. Yeah, or Detroit. I wonder how that would play. I know. I did see, I saw a story that the Tigers are going to be in on short stops this year, this all season. Yeah, I saw Carlos Correa mentioned his possibility. Obviously, he has ties with A.J. Hinch, but yeah, I mean, that makes sense. The Tiger, did they technically finish second? Did they finish? No, they were third, but they were very close. 475 winning percentage. And their best two prospects, they haven't even debuted yet. So the tigers are close to contending again,

and I can definitely see them making a big splash and free agency. But I will point out for Marcus Simeon, as long as he goes to kind of a neutral environment, I don't think I'm going to downgrade him much. I'm not going to move him out of the second round. He actually hit the majority of his home runs on the road this year. He had 21 of his 45 home runs came in August and September. I kept waiting for him to, you know, slow down to regress

because the underlying numbers weren't really backing up. The expected stance, not really backing up what he was doing, but he just kept getting, it just kept getting better and better as the season went on, it seemed like. So I have him firmly in my second round now as the top second baseman. Well, not the top second baseman, because I guess trade Turner is eligible there. But obviously Marcus Simeon looking like a stud. can I jump back to first base?

I know you're trying to pace us here, but I wanted to point out something that may have slipped by a lot of people. Okay. Paul Goldschmidt second. Yep. At first base in Roto. And in the prime of his career,

he was a decent base stealer. He got back to stealing 12 bases, the most since 2017. It was perfect 12 for 12 on the base paths. But, you know, really, it's mostly about what he did at the plate. Turned back the clock there to over the final four months, the final two-thirds of the season, hit 322 with 25 homers and a 978 OPS. And he's somebody who I think is going to be really interesting for next year.

You know, I don't think you draft him ahead of Freddie Freeman, but Matt Olson, where does he place there? even when you look at other positions other other like power first guys like Aaron Judge and Jordan Alvarez so I'm thinking like the round three four range in Roto

does Goldschmidt belong back there he's 34 years old so he's in the twilight of his career but he just had this season where he bounced back to to being the guy that we knew him to be for

several years I'm the first round mainstay, basically. From what, 2013 to 2017-18? I don't know. What do you think? No, it's a great question. It's a great question. And my first instinct is,

while everything backs up what he did, you know, I'm looking at the Stackcast page, he's 85th percentile or better in basically everything. Barrel rate, average exit velocity, hard hit, X-Woba, X-Bee, ex-slug. I mean, there's nothing in the underlying numbers and I wonder, Scott,

because you mentioned the final four months of the season, that's right around when the crackdown happened for sticky substances. So maybe the past couple of years he was a victim of pitchers

doing things that maybe they, doing things excessively that they weren't doing earlier in his career. So that's like the first place that my mind went and maybe he's just

getting back to that player that he was. But my first instance, think is to not buy a player coming off of a huge bounceback season at 34 years old and paying that price. If it does turn out to be a third or fourth round price tag, I probably would not want to do that. Just him versus like Matt Olson or even like Pete Alonzo, someone else at the position, I would rather have Goldschmidt over those two guys. Over Alonzo. Yeah, and over Mattelson. Yeah. Yeah, specifically in Roto, yeah, because. Well, what about Goldschmidt versus Salvador

Perez because I said Perez not until round five. Oh gosh. That's what I said. You didn't chime in. Yeah, yeah. Not worst champ. I think I would take what I still believe to be the biggest advantage at the catcher position.

I think I would lean that way with Salvador Perez, but realistically the answer is probably neither. I don't usually invest in catcher early. And it's nothing against Salvador Perez. I think he's awesome. I think, I don't think he's going to hit 40 plus home runs again, but can he hit 30 to 35? Yeah, I think that's possible for him. Yeah, that's a long way of saying, I think I would go to Salvador Perez over Goldsmith.

But I don't think that I will have either. Let's move on to third base. Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Mani Machado, and Max Muncie, who only played seven games at third base. So he won't have eligibility there. If you take him out, Nolan Aronado is the next name up at the position. Rafael Devers has now finished as a top 12 player overall in Roto in two of the last three seasons and He does that even with a 751 OPS against left-handed pitching so

Obviously that drags the numbers down a little bit, but it's not a hindrance enough to affect his overall production Obviously finishing as a top 12 player overall in two of the past three years. So I know you had him at the back end of round two in your early mock drafts gotten I think that's fair I I think he's a second round back Yeah, I think that's what the consensus is going to be. I don't, I mean, you say he finished top 12 in Roto, but the thing is he doesn't really help in steals. He doesn't really help in batting average. Now, he's young enough, and I like the way he's trending enough

that I think he could become a helping batting average, but so far he's really just been a three-category guy, which you don't think of as placing that high or going that high. I get to that 24th pick, and I don't really know who to put there. So I'm kind of just going with the consensus and saying Devers right now. And obviously very early in the process, these things could change. But that's where I am with that initial. I don't feel great about it.

I don't feel great about it because I think Mani Machado is just as good with the bat. I understand he finished 10 home runs behind Devers this year, but we've seen him be a mid-30s home run guy before. I think he's still perfectly capable of that. and he's a little bit more of a base dealer than Devers. So why wouldn't I prefer Machado to Devers? I feel like that's people putting on some projection on Devers because of how young he is and how accomplished he is already at such a young age.

There is a position scarcity element here, I think, too, because third base is, it gets pretty ugly. It gets pretty ugly. though, I don't know, it kind of feels like every infield position is like that. Like there's not really 12 to go around, at least in a standard 12 team league context. There's not 12 that you're going to feel great about at any of the infield positions. But I haven't reviewed them all yet, so I may be wrong about that. I will point out with Devers.

He finishes with a 279 batting average. Two years ago, back at 2019, he was up at 311. his XBA this year was 286. So I think there's a little wiggle room there, Scott, for him to get up over 280, maybe even approach 290, especially given how hard that he hits the ball. So I think that's like a fair median projection,

expectation for Raphael Devers. And even with that, like the league average, batting average this year was like 244. So, yeah, I mean, it's not fair to say he's not a helping batting average. I just mean. He's just not elite in that category. He's not like a 300 hitter.

Yeah. I know he was in 2019, but nobody was really buying in 2019. And I think, you know, 280 range is more what you can expect from him. And for a non-based dealer to go that early with a 280 batting average, it's just,

it just seems a little off to me. But, you know, one thing I noticed is, and I could have pointed out when you were talking about Ozzie Albis, he had 100 runs, over 100, runs over 100 RBI. Same is true for Devers.

And I was noticing how big a deal that was, how big of a difference that made for hitters in the roto final tally, just that combination of 100 and 100 or close to it. Which makes sense. It's not, those aren't stats that we talk very much about directly because obviously they're dependent on factors beyond a player's control. But there is value to being in a good lineup. And I would expect the Red Sox to have a good lineup again next year.

I don't think it's as good as some, but it should be good enough that that's an advantage to Devers as opposed to his detriment. Let's move on to shortstop here. Boba Chet, Trey Turner, Fernando Tatis, Marcus Semyon, and Jorge Palanco, of Semyon, Polanco, and Turner will have second base and shortstop eligibility next year. Fernando Tatis will have shortstop and outfield eligibility next year.

Four players who finish inside the top seven overall were at this position at shortstop. Bichette, Turner, Tatis, all setting up to be first round picks, at least in Roto. We mentioned Bobauchette, probably not going to be. No, he's definitely not going to be a first round pick in head-to-head points. but yeah this is a a really really strong position especially up top scotty it is now it's interesting that you said simian polanco turner all second base eligible and i mentioned that next year i'll have a second baseman turner and a and it going in my first round and a second basement simian going in my second round and i wonder how much that's going to rob from

shortstop first of all makes second base look better than we're used to it looking and recent years and it might thin the herd at shortstop quicker than we've grown accustomed to as well. So that's something to keep in mind. Let's see. Did you ask me about a player specifically? No, just that. I mean, there are some elite names here up at the top. Yeah.

Even more so than other positions that we've mentioned so far. Well, and we're not used to thinking of Jorge Polanco being an elite company, but there he is. Yep. legitimate five category contributor this year. Now he's somebody I'm annoyed about the season he had because I, he was one of my sleepers coming at the year. I was drafting him late in a lot of roto leagues. You know, usually I give it about six weeks

for a player to come around. He got off to a dreadful start, right? And he was coming off ankle surgery that, you know, the story was it kind of wrecked his 2020. And then he was having more pain in that ankle. And so I bailed on him. I think in every week I drafted him in. Oh, God.

Late in May. Late in May. I really stuck with him for a long time. But given the story about the angle and the way it was bruising, I let him go. And then from June 1st on, or hit Polanco, hit 28 homers, stole eight bases, had an 881 OPS. Ops. So, yeah. That wasn't great.

Didn't feel good about that. I'm interested to see what the Minnesota Twins do this off season two because they're kind of in this weird spot. They sold off Jose Burrios and obviously Joe Ryan comes in and he looked good for the most part. But I don't know. I don't know what to make of the Minnesota Twins. They're an interesting team.

Let's hit a quick break. When we return, we will talk about the outfield starting pitcher and relief pitcher next on fantasy baseball today. All right, so the top five at the outfield position includes Shohei Otani, Fernando Tatis, to Oscar Hernandez, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto. Soto actually finished as the first overall outfielder in head-to-head points. Choha Otani will not have outfield eligibility next year. So if I take him off this list, Nick Castellanos would be the next man up there.

Teasksa Hernandez, this guy is legit, and I, on behalf of all of us here, would like to apologize, specifically to you forever doubting the talent, because what a season this guy had. 296 batting average, 32 homers, 92 runs, 116 RBI, 12 steals, five category contributor, the strikeout rate down to a career best, 24.9%. The line drive rate, up over 25%, each of the past two years. That will fuel a high batheap,

fuel a high batting average as well. He was 88th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard hit, XBA. I think he's legit, Scott. I think to Oscar Hernandez is there. Yeah. Yeah, it's fair to say at this point. And look, I was down on him coming into the year, too.

Every chance I had to talk about him, I said to Oscar Hernandez was my most obvious bust candidate for this year, the one I was most confident in. Now, he did change up the skill set on us, which is unfair to do that, Tay Oscar, getting that strikeout rate down by as much as he did. But now that it is down, it's definitely easier to see his strengths.

And somebody who's going to be worth considering in that fourth, fifth round range next year as well, I believe. By the way, you mentioned Juan Soto goes from being first and rode out of first in points. He had a hundred forty-five walks this year compared to 93 strikeouts, a difference of 52. Wow. I mean, when you have 52 more strikeouts than walks, that's pretty good, right?

To have 52 more walks than strikeouts. I mean, this is the best on-base guy we've seen. I know Joey Vata's had some great on-base years, too, but this, Wonsota might be the best we've seen since, like, Barry Bonds, you know? 22% walk rate he finishes with on the year. The next qualified batter was Joey Gallo at 18%. Wonsoto 313 batting average 465 OBP, which you're right

I mean it's just massive and the nationals are another team too where I don't I don't really know where they're going to go from here they do have some young interesting players in their farm system too so I don't think they're going to be bad for a long time per se but

look if they don't improve the lineup maybe that walk rate remains high because teams just kind of pitch around Wansoto well it's got to remain high yeah that's for sure but I believe could have a true bond year where he walks like 200 times.

I believe that it was this high because the lineup after they traded Trey Turner, I mean, it was just so bad. So like, oh, not really. It wasn't awful, but teams didn't really have to worry about they could pitch around Wonsoto a little bit more, you know? Well, I mean, it made him better if that's the case because his second half on base percentage

was 525. He was on base more than half the time in the second half. Oh, my. Wow, that is, that's insane. That is awesome. He only hit 29 home runs. He only stole nine bases. But he also,

he had that injury earlier in the year, believe it was, what was it, a shoulder? He had an IEL stand and when he came back, he was like, it took him a while to get back on track. I remember people were emailing us in like,

what's wrong with Want Soto? You keep saying he's going to bounce back. And then lo and behold, the second half was a massive second half for him. But, I mean, he did this even with, being banged up for the first month at least. Strange shoulder in April.

Yeah. Missed about two weeks. Yeah. Yeah, no, I remember that too. And obviously, I don't think any of us were ever really worried about Juan Soto. But other than that short in 2011 season, he hasn't put up a first round caliber home run total. His career high is 34.

Home runs. And, you know, I, all I'm trying to say is I don't think there's much of a justification to take him first overall in Roto leagues next year. Don't really see the justification to take him ahead of Guerrero or Tatis, Acuna if he's looking healthy. Still remains to be seen, but obviously you want those steals. So top five, yes, for Soto and Roto next year. but I don't really if people try to make the first overall case for him in Roto I'm not going to be with them I can understand it more for points leagues

I actually I think he's going to fall further back in the first round in Roto Scott where we use I've seen some people saying first overall for him oh well no I think you can make the argument in a points league I mean you probably still want to be pretty aggressive with pitching there but in Roto I'm going to want trade to earner ahead of him. Even without the batting average, I want the power and speed of Jose Ramirez.

Really? Yeah. I think Boba Shet versus Juan Soto is like a real conversation in Roto. So I'm going, assuming a Kunia's healthy. I'm going Soto 4, Otani 5, Trey Turner 6, Jose Ramirez 7.

Yeah, I think, I don't know what's going to happen with Akunia, but I think Trey Turner is probably going to be, like, if I don't have a, Coonia up there, then he's probably going to be the third player off the board for me in Roto. This is an interesting stat I saw for Trey Turner today. Every single month, he hit at least 300.

That's awesome. I mean, you love that consistency. It's great. And I mean, he's become not a power hitter, but certainly enough power to sustain being a top five overall player in this format. So it's good. It's a good conversation. So you're making the case even harder that once.

Shouldn't go first overall because you don't even have them in the first half of the first round. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Yep, that's where I'm at. Starting pitcher, top five. Max Scherzer, Walker Bueller, Zach Wheeler, Julio O'Reas, and Corbin Burns. If you look at head-to-head points, Robbie Ray sneaks into the top five. And you brought up to Oscar Hernandez, how he was your biggest bust that you were talking about this year.

Max Scherer, I was pretty worried about him myself. So, I mean, you take an L, I'll take an L. We all take an L, except for the only league where I got Max Scherzer was Tau Wars. So it's kind of funny and ironic how that works out. No, that's a good lesson because the Bueller's here too. And Bueller was, you know, to ask hernandez, if that was the bust I was loudest about, the bust call, then Bueller was the one I was second loudest about. But I drafted him in the podcast for the People League with my second pick, 16 team league,

but still my second round pick I spent on Walker Bueller, who I'd been calling this bust all along. And I don't win that league without Walker Bueller. In fact, I think he won the league for me on the last day of the season with his 11 strikeout performance. So it's important to remember that it's important to not be so high on your own opinions that you can't, that you overlook reason, you know? It made sense in the context to take this guy who I wasn't particularly high on

because it seemed like nobody else was high on me either, at least not as high as they should have been. Or he met a specific need. And like, you know, bus picks aren't made with more than like 60% confidence, right? They just got to remember that in the heat of a draft. Yeah. And I think to your point, it was like a very, interesting circumstance how I wound up with Scherzer because Tout Wars is a salary cap draft. And

I knew that I didn't want to, I typically in deeper leagues where there's more roster spots, I don't, I like to have a balanced roster. I didn't spend more than $31 on any player on my Tout Wars team. And I wanted an ace, but all of them went for so much money. And then it just turns out Max Scherzer is kind of slowing down in like the high 20s. We get to 30. I, you know, I start bidding. I bid 31. I didn't really want them. but I got him for less than every other ace in that tier. I got him for less than Bueller, for less than Arindola, for less than Luis Castillo.

And I didn't want him, but it just kind of worked out. He was the best value in that tier. And so I was like, all right, I'll take him. He was the cheapest one, and he turned out to be the best. And I remember he live tweeting it, and you seemed really disappointed that you got Scherzer. Yeah. And I remember being really upset with myself for drafting Bueller there.

The lesson learned that I wanted to bring up about the Dodgers, particularly two of them in the top five, which I mentioned Walker Bueller and Julio Arias. I guess just don't doubt the Dodgers starting pitchers, right? Overall, it's easier to say now that they did something that we've never seen them do before. Coming off the short and season, Walker Bueller, one of four starting pitchers with 200 innings pitched this year,

Julio O'Reas, one of 11 starting pitchers, over 185 innings. He won 20 games. Yeah, he was the league. I never would have imagined. Pugio Arias in his first year as a full-time starter would win 20 games. But for me, I think the lesson here, Scott, is just, is trusting the talent. Like, we knew that they were talented.

Like, we knew that. We knew Walker Bueller, and we said it. We were like, you know, on a per inning, on a per pitch basis, probably didn't say it as much for Arias, but we definitely said it for Bueller. Like, we never doubted the talent. We just didn't know what the usage was going to be. Yeah. I don't know. This is, this is.

You know, process versus results. And it wasn't the only league where I drafted people, where I drafted them in at least one other league. So, you know, I didn't blind myself to the potential he offered. But I do think it was reasonable, given the Dodgers history with pitching and their pitching depth, they tended to be very careful with these young guys, and especially coming off a shortened season where nobody got any innings. I still think it was reasonable to assume that's the direction they'd go.

Now, they ended up losing a lot of pitching depth, and I don't know how much that contributed to what happened with Bueller and Aureas. But, you know, it didn't seem like they were taking it easy with them even early on. So, you know, I don't know yet that I have a lesson to learn there. Just that, you know, doesn't always go the way you think it is. I'm hoping these things at starting pitcher will get more predictable coming off a more typical season. Scott, did you just put starting pitchers and predictable in the same sentence? I'm sorry to break it to you, buddy, but that's never going to happen.

It's just never going to happen. At relief pitcher, the top five, Liam Hendricks, Freddie Peralta, Reissela Iglesias, Josh Hader, and Kenley Jansen. One of my bold predictions before the season was actually that Ricelliglesias would lead baseball in saves, and he finishes with 35 tied for fifth. So not far off, but I thought it was worth mentioning there. He's an unrestricted free agent,

and it'll be interesting to see where Ricelliglasis lands this off season. And I think that's a good way to kind of transition into league leaders and trends because I do have some stuff on saves that I want to get into, but we will start with the offensive side of things. And at batting average, Trey Turner finishes with a 328 batting average. He leads all of baseball. Home runs. We mentioned Vlad and Salvador Perez up at 48. RBI, Salvador Perez. 121. Jose Abriou was second with 117. Run scored, Vlad Guerrero. 123. Also mentioned three of the top five.

run scored leaders this year were from Toronto. Vlad, Bobauchette, and Marcus Semyon. Your steals leader, Starling Marte with 47. It's just crazy. At soon as he, he was running a lot in Miami. But once he got to Oakland, it was like, this guy's hair was on fire. Like, he was just running every opportunity that he had.

Also, a free agent. By the way, I don't want to rub salt in the wound for athletics fans, but he gave up Jesus Lazzardo and don't even, go to the playoffs. That's got to hurt. I mean, look, hey, the same thing happened for Toronto, right? They do have burrios for another year. Yeah, they have burrios for

like, Marteis, I assume he's gone. I don't know. I doubt Oakland will be resigning him. We'll see. I mean, typically they don't spend a lot of money in free agency. I don't know how much, you know, what kind of contract selling Marte is going to demand, but he's going to be an interesting name too, because

an older player, much like Paul Goldschmidt, who is coming off a career season, at least in terms of batting average and steals. So do you want to buy in on that? I could see in a Roto League, there's going to be people advocating to take Starlight as early as the second round.

Yeah. So I got them in round three. Okay. I'm going to try. We'll see if I stick to this, but right now I'm thinking I'm going to try not to intentionally pursue stolen bases in a Roto league because I just didn't.

have enough of the other offensive categories. And like, stolen base is a category where it seems like it's pretty easy to accidentally finish eighth, you know? Yep. Not finished dead last, just because you're dealing with such small numbers to begin with.

So, Starling Marte seems like the kind of player. I'm not going to draft next year. You know, if I get a great base dealer in round one, well, he does everything else well, so I'm not going to turn him down. But it's not going to be, something I'm intentionally pursuing.

All right. On the pitching side of things, Julio Reyes, we mentioned 20 wins. He led baseball strikeouts. Robbie Ray was first with 248. Zach Wheeler finishes just one strikeout behind him with 247. Your ERA leader at starting pitcher, Corbyn Burns 2.43. And at relief pitcher, Aaron Loop, who is a left-handed reliever for the New York Mets. Josh Hader was second behind him at 1.23. Your whip leader, Max Scherzer, 0.3. point eight six among starting pitchers. And at relief pitcher, Liam Hendricks had a 0.73 whip.

Your saves leader was Mark Melanson, who finished with 39. It was the first time since 1982 that we didn't have a reliever with at least 40 saves in a full season. So obviously there was the strike short in 1994, and then last year, which was only 60 games.

But this is the first time that hasn't happened since 1982, which I thought was kind of interesting. Neither of our lifetimes. Yeah, that's true. Let's take a look at some macro-level trends, 2021 versus 2019, which was the last full season that we had.

And specifically looking at saves, we had 1,191 saves this year. There were 11 less back in 2019. And if you're looking specifically just at 30 plus, pitchers with 30-plus saves, this year we had 9. Back in 2019, we had 11. So that's interesting.

overall we had more saves this year, just in baseball. But back in 2019, we had more relievers with 30 plus saves. So that tells me there was probably a few more teams going with a committee approach or just riding the hot hand or just didn't have enough good pitchers to piece it together. The Reds, the Royals, they all kind of come to mind where we were chasing those teams all year. And they were pretty frustrating. But what do you think, so?

Like overall, so there was 39 pitchers with double-digit saves this year. 37 back in 2019. So I think that kind of feeds into the same point that there were overall, there was just like more of that like cluster in the mid, maybe like 10 to 20 saves this year, than we're used to seeing. Yeah, definitely.

I'm trying to count up real quickly how many even had 30 or more. This year? Yeah. It was nine. Oh, right. You already said that. Ah, yeah.

No, I mean, it does seem to be the way things are trending. I noticed it more this year than ever before because, you know, last year, as short as the season, well, there were a lot of changes of closer last year even at just two months' time. But there is, it's typical for there to be a lot of shuffling early in the season, especially, because, you know, teams, pitchers fall out of favor who were in favor the previous year. year just because that role is so volatile. But usually when teams find a guy that they trust, they tend to stick with them. And it just took so many teams so long to do that.

And several never really did it. You know, I wonder about guys like Giovanni Gallegos, who appeared to secure the closer role late for the Cardinals, Dylan Floro. He's still under contract for the more. I think he finished with 15 saves. He got a ton in September. But he's less than a strikeout per inning and kind of brand. Brandon Kinsler like, and we saw what happened to Kinsler this year with the Phillies,

a guy like, I'm forgetting his name, but the Rangers got Joe Barlow, Joe Barlow. Yeah. And Scott Barlow seemed like he secured the role late for the Royals, but I could see maybe the Royals bringing somebody else, and I don't really see the Rangers bringing somebody else in. So how firm is their grip on the role heading into next year? I don't know. I don't know, but it...

That's something I'm going to have to think a lot about because, you know, I've never been somebody who intentionally pays for saves. And I still don't think I will be because it's not like it's not like saves was a category and all, but maybe one roto league where it's like, oh man, I wish I had more saves. Like there's a lot of shuffling guys in and out of the lineup all year, but it's pretty easy to be competitive in that category, even if you don't make a big investment. but I'm sure it feels great to just have Josh Hader plugged in all year and not have to pursue it. So it's something I'll look at again next year. But I think I think I'm once again going to go the bargain route for that category. Yeah, I don't know that I'm ever going to be someone who uses a top four or five round pick on that elite closer.

I understand why people do it. I mean, to get saves and awesome ratios and strikeouts from someone like Liam Hendricks or Josh Hader. It's great. Like you say, just pencil it in and you know what you're going to get. But I do think

the deeper to the league, the deeper the category league, the more likely I am to spend, let's say a top 100 pick or a top 120 pick on just someone who is just solidly in that role. Whether it's a Ryseli Glacius

wherever he goes, a Ryan Presley, even Kenley Janssen who just continues to get it done. I mean, I have all offseason to look into his peripherals and everything else that he did. But I do think the deeper the league, the more likely I will have to have at least one of those.

Well, that makes sense. I mean, there are a finite number of projected save sources going into the season. So the more that has to be spread among the fantasy teams, than the higher the premium for anybody who's projected for saves. Like the NL-only league, I won. I mean, no closer goes for less than $12. No projected closer in that league. in that type of format so yeah that makes sense all right workload concerns

for starting pitchers we had no coming into the year and they were real there was only four pitchers with 200 plus endings pitched there were 15 of those back in 2019 11 more just two years ago and even that that was already trending down for basically the past decade so obviously coming off to 60 game season it was probably even worse than expected and then we had 20 starting pitchers with 180 plus endings this season that was 30 back in 2019. If we look at

league hitting stats, there was a 244 overall league batting average in baseball, 728 OPS, 23% strikeout rate, a 13.6% home run to fly ball ratio. And this is something we spent a lot of attention on early in the season Scott

because the dead and ball, offense was way, way, way down in April. Did bounce back a little bit. I'm sure if I break it down by month, like second half of the season on. I'm sure offense probably looks much closer to 2019. But speaking of 2019, it was a 252 batting average, 758 OPS, and home run to fly ball rate was almost 2% higher,

which doesn't sound like a lot, but it actually is. So the dead and ball, I think overall did affect offense quite a bit this season. Yeah, but let's put it in perspective, because 2019 was the extreme end of the juice ball era. The juice ball era began in the same. second half of 2016. And so there were 59 home runs hit,

sorry, 5,900 home runs hit approximately this year. It was 5,500 in 2018. So, still during that juice ball era, there were fewer home runs hit in 2018 than there were this year.

In 2017, there were 6,100 hit. So it was pretty close to that. It's pretty close to what we saw in 2017, a little less than what we saw in 2017. But still, like, an era where there are a lot of home runs being hit. It feels

like maybe the distribution wasn't as even, like, there wasn't as many, scrubby middle infielder's hitting 20 plus home runs. But I haven't actually looked at that yet. That's just kind of my, how I perceived it. Well, if you look at 30 plus home run hitters, just

in general, not just for scrubby middle infielders, but there were 43 with 30 plus homers this year compared to 58 back in 2019. So that, I mean, that's a pretty big disparity. 15 more hitters with 30 plus home runs. And if you look at steals overall, there were 19 with 20 plus this year. There were 21 back with 20 plus back in 2019. And it looks like there were overall, there was 67 steals less. just across baseball this year.

So, steals are trending down. It wasn't as big of a drop off this year compared to 2019 as maybe we had expected, but it was actually pretty similar when I looked at the distribution of steals at least, you know, a couple of days after the season has ended.

Let's wrap up here, Scott. Of course, you know, it's our first off-season podcast. We're already going an hour, over an hour, because, you know, why not? We like to give the people content, Scott, that's what they want.

But this is what people can expect in the off-season, Tuesdays, Thursdays. Typically, we'll go, I imagine we'll go less than an hour. But your postseason predictions, what do you got here, Scotty? Give me your, let's start with wild card winners, right? We got the Yankees against the Red Sox. Gosh, I'm going to be an absolute mess. We're recording this Monday night.

It's releasing on Tuesday. I'm going to be a mess all day, all night, Scott. It's very scary. Yankees against the Red Sox, Dodgers against the Cardinals. Who you got? Yankees against the Red Sox. Okay, the Wild Card Games. I will go.

I will go Dodgers. That's the easy one, right? The Dodgers. Yeah, man, it would stink if the Dodgers are eliminated that early. I mean, not for any team in the NL, but... It certainly would not stink for Cardinals fans. And I'll go with the Yankees.

Yankees Dodgers. Oh, my goodness gracious! Correct answer. I appreciate it, Scott. All right, who you got in the ALCS? Who you got in the NLCS? So, I see the Braves beating the Brewers, and I don't think that's just the Homerism talking.

Certainly the Brewers could beat the Braves. By the way, I'm with you. I have Yankees and Dodgers as a wild card winners. Okay. So I'll put the Braves in the NLCS and I'll put the Dodgers in the NLCS rematch from last year. The Dodgers.

And unfortunately, I see the Dodgers winning again. So I guess, yeah. I have the Dodgers going to the World Series. Yes, likewise. I actually have them facing. the Brewers in the NLCS. I'm sorry, Scott. I do think it's going to be a close series. I think we get five games between the Braves and the Brewers.

Braves actually finished with a higher run differential than the Brewers. All right. That's WIW. That's spicy. Nice little stat to know there. I just, man, I think that combination of Burns and Woodruff is just going to be really,

really tough. For most teams, I can see the more, the Brewers giving the Dodgers some trouble as well. It depends on Charlie Morton and Max Friede, continuing the way they close. closed out the season because the way they closed out the season, I think they can match those guys. And then the offense will come through. That's what I'm, that's what I'm hoping.

All right. So I've got the Dodgers over the Brewers. I have the Dodgers in the World Series. Who do you have in the ALCS? Who do you have winning at all? So the ALCS, I have the Astros and the Rays and the ALCS. How dare you? I'm going to put the Astros in. Ooh, you want chaos. You want controversy. Man, yeah, that's going to be brutal, brutal Dodgers Astros.

The Dodgers, even as the defending World Series champions, their fan base. And I suspect maybe their roster may not be over what they feel like was a fraudulent World Series loss of the Asteros a couple years ago. Oh, Scott, it's never over. It's never over. I feel like, I feel like as the reigning world series champion, I feel like you can kind of let that stuff go.

Never. Okay. Never. Those scoundrels, those cheaters, those Houston Astros. Who do you have winning at all? Astros or Dodgers? Dodgers. Yeah, me too.

I do have, I have Tampa Bay, and actually have the White Sox and the ALCS. I have the White Sox. going all the way to the World Series. See, the thing that's weird about the race, is there one and two McClanahan and Boz? That would be the junkiest starting rotation ever to pull off a World Series win.

But, I mean, it's not like their team-wide pitching stats are bad. No, no, no. They made it work during the regular season. They certainly do. They always do. They have an amazing bullpen. piece it together. I have no doubts about that. I do think Tampa Bay, if the Yankees win, I do think Tampa Bay winds up beating the Yankees. They've had their number the past

couple of years. The White Sox, they've been a great story all season. I feel that I didn't, I don't know what their record was in the second half. I feel like they kind of cooled off in the second half overall, but they still do have a great lineup. They have good pitching. They have a really, really strong bullpen. So I think that could be a very close series as well, between the Ray's and the White Sox. White Sox Dodgers World Series. Dodgers, six. That'll do it. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.