Fantasy Baseball Today - Second Half Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts! (7/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 5, 2024

Let's get right into it with our first sleeper for the second half, Clayton Kershaw (3:06)! ... Chris thinks Shane Baz and Spencer Schwellenbach could provide value (7:57). ... Mark Vientos has some sneaky appeal (11:45). ... Keep an eye on TJ Friedl and Max Meyer as sleepers (14:08). ... Could any of these deep-league darts make an impact (17:14)? ... Our latest prospect spotlight is Jacob Wilson from the A's (21:03)! ... Let's get into our second half breakouts, starting with Christopher Morel (30:48). ... Could Trevor Larnach break out (33:06)? ... Chris still thinks a big second half is coming for Oneil Cruz (34:51). ... Bet on prospect pedigree with Jackson Chourio, Wyatt Langford and Gavin Williams (37:10). ... Scott expects Tyler Anderson and Jurickson Profar to take a step back in the second half (42:37). ... Chris thinks the same of Reynaldo Lopez and Tanner Houck (45:35). ... Will Shota Imanaga continue to regress (50:15)? ... We wrap up with your mailbag questions (53:00)! Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome in tough fantasy baseball today on July 5th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. We recorded this a few days in advance, so it will not be your normal Thursday recap. Instead, today on the show, Sleepers, Breakouts, and Bust for the second half of the season, our latest prospect spotlight, and some of your mailbag questions.

But let's jump right in. A sleeper heading into the second half. And Scott, you are up first. Wow, really are jumping right in here. Okay. So my top sleeper pick for the second half is it's going to be Clayton Kershaw, who I feel like is one of the most, like, truly slept on. It's truly being slept on the impact he could have here in the second half

as he is rehabilitating from a shoulder injury, which has been kind of the norm for Clayton Kershaw. show over the past several years. He always has some kind of ache going on with his shoulder and misses a stretch of the season. It just turned out it was the front end of the season this year. He did

kind of have to slow his rehabilitation for about a week, but he's back to throwing again. It seems like he's still on track to return early in the second half. And the impact he could make on the Dodgers, I mean, just look in his track record. Like I

said, we've gotten used to this. We've gotten used to Clayton Kershaw coming back from shoulder stuff, even with diminished velocity. And it's hardly impacted the way he performed. There was a stretch last year where he was throwing high 80s on average, and he was still putting up fantastic ratios because he's Clayton Kershaw, nothing seems to phase him. In all last year, he had a 246 ERA, a 106 whip, more than a strikeout per inning. He won 13 games and 24 starts, because that's what happens when you pitch for the Dodgers. and I think by the time he's activated and gets a couple starts under his belt,

we're just going to think of him as a fixture and fantasy lineups. Nobody's talking about this. Nobody's talking about the impact Clayton Kershaw could have down the stretch. I could see him being a total league winner based on what he does for you in the second half. And, of course, I could put a number of injured starting pitchers, like long-term injured starting pitchers in this category, Jeffrey Springs, should be returning at about the same time. Jacob de Grom maybe a little bit later.

Robbie Gras. We kind of just buried these guys because their return seems so far off that it was hard to imagine it coming to be. We're on the verge of it now. And if any of them are available in your leagues, Clayton Kershaw, I think, priority number one, it's time to add him.

Yeah, Clayton Kershaw, 67% rostered on CBS. So could be out there in some shallower leads. You could just go pick them up off the waiver wire and you could stash him for now. You mentioned a few other names. Chris, I know in the background there, you said Robbie Ray, who has had his ups and downs throughout his career, but, you know, he's looked good on his rehab assignment. He's going to be pitching in a great ballpark in San Francisco. So, yeah, I would throw Robbie Ray in that mix as well. Chris, let's slide over to you, a sleeper for the second half. I just want to say, like, maybe I'm part of the problem because I'm having a hard time

getting too excited about Clayton Kirchall coming back from a significant shoulder surgery at 36 years. I don't want to doubt him because doubting Clayton Kirchall over the past half decade or so has not really worked out for people. And a lot of people have doubted him. He's an all-time great. Those guys don't age the same as everyone else. But it just,

it does feel like it might be too much to come back from this season, although I hope I am wrong. And I do have him stash in a couple places. You say he's an all-time great, and this is just something I happened to discover the other day when I was looking at baseball stats with my kids. Did you know Clayton Kershaw is the Dodgers franchise leader in war, at least baseball reference version of war? That floored me. I mean, historic organization like the Dodgers. Yeah.

That all-time leader. I thought that was pretty amazing. You're talking about a guy. Especially given how much time he's missed with injuries. Like the playoff stuff is what it is, but like in terms of peak, his peak is comparable to what Sandy Kofax did. And also he's entering his 17th season,

something that's saying, or Sandy Kofax never even got close to. So yeah, that makes sense. And another fascinating observation along those lines. Brett Gardner, I believe, is top 20 in Yankees franchise history. That feels wrong. That actually, that actually is not. Even if it's true, it's not.

I mean, I'll just throw my favorite, Clinton Curshal Statt. He lowered his ERA every season of his career until 2018, which is just fascinating. The first 10 years in the career, he lowered his ERA after every season. And that was probably the aberration, right? Well, yeah, the 273 ERA he posted in 2018 raised his career, career ERA.

He had one year with like a mid-3s ERA and we're like, oh, the decline is happening. And then it was right back to mid-2s. after that. He's pretty, pretty good. My sleeper, Shane Boss,

does he count? He's kind of in the same boat. He's not actually an injury stash anymore because they've activated him from the IL. If you think people are sleeping on his potential, it counts. I mean, we're talking about a guy who, you know,

when last we saw him healthy, he was the best pitching prospect in baseball. He has been, you know, the overall numbers on his minor league rehab assignment have not been. overwhelmingly dominant, but that's mostly he was a little shaky early on. The last five outings, he has allowed four runs total with strikeout totals of 10, eight, six, seven, the six strikeout effort came in three innings.

And the fact that the raise just traded Aaron Savali seems to open up a rotation spot for Shane Boz moving forward, which was the question that we had. Now, he has not proven himself at the major league level. he has only topped 90 pitches once on his rehab assignment. So I think there are going to be some frustrations, as is the case generally with everybody on the race in fantasy. But Shane Boss is someone who has legitimate ace upside. By all the stuff metrics, he has been by far the best pitcher remaining at AAA.

There is significant, significant impact upside with Shane Boss. and he is someone that, you know, even before it looked like he had the clear path back to the rotation than he has now, I thought should have been rostered pretty much everywhere, but now that it looks like he's going to be in the rotation moving forward, I think Shane Boss is someone who absolutely needs to be rostered in every format. I think when you look at like Taj Bradley is someone we've gotten really excited about, who has proven himself more at the Major League level over the past month or so than Shane Boss had before. I think I'd rather have Bradley, but it's real close.

right? Yeah, it's actually a mailbag question that I had for later on. Someone asked that exact question. Would you rather have Tage Bradley or Shane Baz? Which way would you go, Scott? I mean, right now you've got to say Bradley. Yeah, the guy getting, you know, nine shankouts. He's actually doing what you're hoping Baws will do. And, oh, maybe Tosh Bradley will fall off a bit, but you don't, you don't want to bank on a largely unproven pitcher like Baz. Can I give one more lower end name? Yes. Spencer Schwallenbach, who we've talked a little bit about, I think there's quite a bit to like in Spencer Schwellenbach's approach. He has a full five pitch arsenal, including a splitter that looks like it might be a legit wipeout pitch,

49% whiff rate. He's also got the curveball at 32%. Slider and cutter have been a little underwhelming in terms of whiffs, but the results have been decent. But all in all, you know, he's got a 560A. That's pretty ugly, but he's doing a really good job of limiting hard contact. He's not good control. I think there's potential for more strikeouts moving forward. He's got a 390X ERA through his first, what, five starts. And I think there is room for him to build on that with, you know, what we think will be a very good Braves lineup backing him up.

So Spencer Schwallenbach is someone that for the second half of the season, I think could be a very, very useful fantasy option. Can I give my bonus sleeper now? Sure. We're already getting it. No, no, only me. Actually. Yesterday was my birthday.

I don't know if you know, so... Oh, happy birthday. When you say yesterday, do you mean as people are listening to this? When we're recording this, it's tomorrow, but when they're listening to this, it's yesterday. The timing of this podcast is just so weird right now. Yeah, Kokomo Friday on a Wednesday afternoon. It is a little weird. It is kind of a Friday, though, especially since we all have Friday off normally, right?

Yes. Anyway, yeah, my bonus one is Mark Viantos, who we've talked about... I was trying to avoid picking a bunch of players that we've talked about a lot on the podcast, and we've talked about Viantos a lot recently because he claimed a third base job for the Mets. He's been hot lately. But I think sometimes in the day-to-day grind of giving a thousand reaction to a thousand different players, sometimes the extent of enthusiasm can be lost. I'm very enthusiastic about Mark Vientos, given that.

He's always had considerable power. 2022 and 23 he played a combined 162 games in the minors and hit 40 home runs his max exit velocity in the majors this year is it's 89th percentile

so he is it was even higher last year he's capable of hitting the ball in the 110s 100teens however you want to put that and he's gotten the strikeout rate down to 23% in the majors after being more around 30%.

It's obviously a smaller sample, and we could see that strikeout rate climb again with increased exposure, but honestly, the way he impacts the ball, I think he could potentially be fine even with a 30% strikeout rate. So anything around 25, and like I said, it's south of 25 now, I think is very encouraging for Mark Viantos. I could see him having an impact for the Mets like Jake Berger had for the Marlins in the second half last year that led to so much enthusiasm for him in fantasy coming into this year.

Granted, it didn't pan out for Berger in the long run, but we're just talking about three months, three months of impact here. And I think Viantos is going to be a premier slugger in the second half and maybe even emerge as a must-star fantasy player. Mark Viento's 67% rostered on CBS. So again, could it be out there in some shallower leagues. The one thing I do want to see him improve on is the launch angle. He's hit a lot of ground balls.

But everything else, hitting the ball hard, making more contact. You know, he's still been able to tap into that power, even though he has been hitting too many ground balls. So, yeah, if he can raise that launch angle, I think we could see even more power coming from Mark Viantos in the second half. Two names for me, Sleepers. T.J. Friedel, 61% rostered on CBS. He's currently on the IL with a hamstring injury,

should be ready to go. After the All-Star break, he's only played 26 games. He has produced four homers and six steals during that span. A lower batting average, 216, but the Babbup is really low. His expected batting average is right around 250. So if you can get a 250 batting average with a 15 to 20 homer 30 steel pace in the second half of the season while either hitting first or second in the Reds lineup, I think that's going to be a really valuable player. So T.J. Friedelah, I think someone you can get on the cheap.

and a pitcher, Max Meyer. We saw him dominate earlier this season, a 212 ERA, a 0.82 whip, 14% swinging strike rate, very small sample size, only three starts. The minor league numbers are underwhelming, but there have been reports that the Marlins specifically wanted Max Meyer

to work on certain pitches. So that's kind of why some of the numbers look wonky down there. We've heard for weeks, maybe months now that he's going to return to the Marlins rotation at some point. And just given his prospect pedigree, as great as that slider is, I could just see him having a big impact,

at least in terms of ratios and strikeouts. The wins are probably going to be hard to come by. But both of these guys are also widely available. So if you want to just pick them up as free agents, I think T.J. Friedel and Max Meyer are fine options. I actually wrote about this in the Prospects report this week, where Max Meyer's latest start at AA, it was his longest, and it was his best since getting sent down.

And in it, he went back to throwing his slider 40. 38% of the time, which was about how often he was throwing it during that three-star stint in the majors where he was so impressive. I think it marked the transition out of development mode for Max Meyer back into competitive mode in anticipation of him returning to the majors. I think that obviously the Marlins haven't really signaled that verbally, but I think if we're looking for signs that they're getting him ready to return, I thought that was a pretty big one. How would you guys rank the four sleeper pitchers we threw out there for the second half? Shane Boz, Schwellenbach, Kershaw, and Max Meyer. Boz, Kershaw. I'm going to give Meyer the edge over Schwellenbach.

But I do like Schwellenbach, too. It's just, it's a little more playing a hunch than feeling like he just needs the opportunity. Yeah. I might flop Schwellenbach and Meyer, but I do think, at least for me, there's a clear gap between Boz and the rest of them now that it looks like there's a clear path for him to be in the rotation moving forward. And honestly, there

might just be a talent gap between Shane Baz and the other guys. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery. He's unproven at the highest level. But at this point in all of their careers, I think there's a decent chance Shane Boss is just the most talented of that group. If you're telling me they're coming back the same day,

I would take Kirscho over Bos. The reason I put Bos ahead of Kirschall was... There might be a month. gap. Yeah. Yeah. Going to throw some just deep league

darts out there. You let me know if you could see any of these players making an impact. Again, some pretty deep league names here. But Parker Meadows

is someone we mentioned recently. Chris, I know you brought them up and the AAA numbers have looked awesome. I feel like the tigers can certainly use

some help in terms of their hitting and their lineup. Davis and de Los Santos of the D-Backs. He is having a breakout season in the minors as a 21-year-old,

3-44 batting average, 26 homers, 1071 Ops, Eugenio Suarez has been a mess at third base. De Los Santos not regarded as a good defender, so I don't know if they're going to trust him. Cade Cavali, a former top pitching prospect with the Nationals, he's rehabbing his way back from Tommy John's surgery, some big strikeout numbers in the minors. And speaking of strikeouts, Chase McDermott, Oriel's pitching prospect currently leads AAA in strikeouts. My guess is they'll probably go out and make a trade, and maybe he won't matter.

but can you see any of these names mattering in deeper leagues? Parker Meadows, De LaSantoz, Cavali, Chase McDermott. I don't think any of them need to be rostered right now. I don't think this is a stash situation like we talked about with Meyer and Kirschau. But, you know, Meadows, I think at this point has very little approve at AAA. So it just comes down to when the Tigers think him and, you know, Spencer Torkelson, I think should come up around the same time and just see what they have because at some point they've got to, you know, figure out what these pieces can be as they move into the next phase of their development. So Meadows, I think, is the most likely to get a

chance relatively soon. And I don't think he's the most talented of this group. But, you know, the numbers he put up at AAA are impressive enough that, yeah, when he gets the call, he's going to be someone we're talking about. I don't know who is the most talented of this group. I don't think Parker Meadows is going to be a big deal in the long run. I'm not saying you can't take a shot on him in a deep league because there are only so many quality outfielders in a 15-team rode a league, for instance. But I have seen a certain amount of salivating out there over Davis and De Lo Santos because of the numbers he's putting up a AAA.

I think it's a big fake out. I'm not saying the guy can't hit the ball hard, but it is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, and his chase numbers are really bad. Like, is, I think major league pitchers are going to eat him alive. And even double-A, he was playing in the Texas League. That's a pretty hitter-friendly environment, too, right? At double A, you're saying? Yeah, the Texas League.

Yeah, I don't know how long he was down there. Only third. He's spent about half his season between double A and triple this year. Okay, yeah, they're both. Especially the Diamondbacks double A and AAA affiliate. It's both extremely hitter-friendly. but beyond that, I just think the caliber, I think he's going to be,

I think he's the sort of hitter Davis and de los Santos who will be exposed against higher end pitching, looking at some of those chase rates. The Guardians picked him in the Rule 5 draft and didn't keep him. They returned him to the Diamondbacks. Yeah, it's weird. Yeah, so like they obviously were not thrilled

with what they saw. I'm not saying he can't have any role in the second half in fantasy, but I just, I don't think it's going to come anywhere close to delivering the kinds of numbers he's putting up. Yeah, the Rule 5 stuff is definitely weird with De LaSanto. It's just the age to production, it's pretty impressive what he's doing as a 21-year-old. You mentioned, obviously, the environment that he's playing in, but we'll see if DeLos Santos can get a shot with the debacks in the second half. Speaking of prospects, it's Friday.

Let's get into another prospect spotlight. Let's talk about A's prospect, Jacob Wilson, 22 years old, first. round pick in last year's draft. He was selected sixth overall and say it with me guys. Jacob Wilson, son of former major leaguer Jack Wilson. You know I love those second generation players. Did you want us? Did you want us to say it with you? Because I wasn't exactly sure how we were going to say it. Yeah, it would have been a complete mess, but. We should have tried. I wanted to do a lot of words. You wanted us to say together. I wanted you guys to think it with me or at least I thought it. Get ready for it. Right. Well, that's what we're talking about. Ten, ten syllables is a bit too much.

is a lot. To be trying to say like, son of former major leager Jack Wilson. Like, it doesn't really work. Doesn't really roll off the time. Jacob Wilson, by the way,

he has played 39 games in the minors this season. He is batting 464 with five homers, 22 doubles, a 1206 OPS. He recently got called up to AAA where he has continued to rake and no offense to Max Schumann. But the A's have a pretty clear opening at shortstop

if they want to promote Wilson to the majors. Scott, is that something you could see? them doing? I mean, I assume so with the numbers he's putting up. He's batting about 100 points higher than any other major leaguer outside of

rookie ball. And, you know, it seems... Minor leaguer, sorry, thank you. It's the sort of stat that seems mathematically, like the math of baseball doesn't allow it to happen, and I don't think it will allow it to happen in the long run,

but when you're this much of an outlier, for this long, Because Jacob Wilson has been doing this. It started at AA at AAA at AAA. He's continued to bat over 400. Then he missed about three weeks a month with knee tendonitis. He's come back. He's batting over 500 since he's returned.

It's not like he's just gotten really hot. And we're just waiting for the momentum to cool off. I think he's showing us that he just has an exceptional hit tool. And this is a guy I wrote off. coming into the season because they're the reports of his you know he was lacking power you kind of need power in the modern game and uh the scouting reports didn't give him much of a chance of that the exit velocity readings aren't impressive he's sort of like brooks lee in that way um but he does have an ISO because of so many doubles he has an ISO of 242 and he actually hasn't been horrible in terms of home run output five and 153 at bats at the time of this recording. So I don't think he's totally punchless.

He doesn't strike out much at all. Obviously, he hits a ton of line drives. He's capable of hitting the ball the other way. All the ways that you would expect a player to have a high batting average, Jacob Wilson is doing that. You know, it's always difficult to project a unicorn outcome for a player. because this is not a profile we see much of in the major, certainly not in the modern game.

But I think if you are going to predict, to project a Luis a rise outcome on any prospect, Jacob Wilson is the one to do it with. And it may be selling him short a little in terms of upside. I don't know. He's a weird one. He's a weird one. He wasn't in my top 100 prospects to begin the season,

but he certainly would be now. Can I be the pessimist? Yeah, you can crap all over. It's easier to crap on it than to see it with open eyes. It's a type of prospect that I think we'll see fairly regularly put up really good numbers in the miners and then just get the bat knocked out of their hands when they get up. I think the primary comp there would be Nick Madrigal, who, if you remember, between AA and AAA ran a 5.1% strikeout rate was hitting, you know, not 450, but like 350. and he's just been a complete non-factor at the major league level. And I think the key distinction that holds a Luis Raya's comp,

you know, I think out of the realistic realm of possibility is just that while Luis Rias does not hit for power, he does hit the ball in the air quite a bit. He has a 12.2 degree average launch angle, and he has an extremely tight spray of his launch. that it's like it's not just that he's hitting he's not hitting infield fly balls he's not hitting outfield fly balls he's just hitting soft line drives and that's how louisa rias has made himself into such a batting average standout in addition to the 6% strikeout rate um jacob wilson's average launch angle so far that triple a 6 degrees so that is significantly lower it's a lot

more ground ball heavy he has like a i just looked it up it's like a 485 um um um Wobah on 453 Wobah on ground balls alone. That's not going to happen at the major league level. I don't think like peak Juan Pierre was doing that. So

you know, Jacob Wilson is not an elite athlete. He's not super fast. I think he probably like he could be a regular at the major league level. His dad, Jack Wilson, made an all-star game. He had a couple seasons where he hit like 300. I

I could see that kind of outcome here, but I think it's for fantasy, a pretty boring profile, because he doesn't steal at all either. I think he only has two steals this season. So that makes it tougher as well. Yeah, I could see him making an impact in a head-to-head points league

just because he doesn't strike out. He can hit lots of doubles, maybe in like a Brendan Donovan kind of way, which I know doesn't sound very exciting, but Donovan's a useful head-to-head points league player. He's a 90% roster. right now, right? Yeah, so I could see some kind of impact like that coming for

someone like Jacob Wilson. He was one of Scott's five prospects on the verge in his latest prospect report, so make sure to check that out, which is live on the site, cbsports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Quick reminder to download and follow our five minute podcast, FBT and 5, wherever you listen

to podcasts. We have a bonus prospect episode coming out every Saturday of the season. Let's take our first break. And when we return, second half breakouts. right after this. Welcome back in. Let's talk second half breakouts.

And Chris, we will start with you. I know you have a few stipulations here with your breakout. So you can go ahead and list off all of them if you want. Yeah, like, I always struggle with the breakout because it's like, is it,

you know, just something, someone's going to do something he's never done before. Well, then a bunch of my options are not going to count because, like, I feel pretty confident. Helio Rodriguez is going to be much better in the second half

than he was in the first. I'm pretty confident that whenever he's held, Fernando Tatis is going to be much better in the second half than he wasn't the first half. I think when Blake Snell comes back, there is going to be a stretch where Blake Snell is absolutely a dominant must-start fantasy pitcher. And so if all of those count, then I will say all of those guys. If those guys don't count and you're looking for something more, he's never done it before, I would probably go with Christopher Morel, who I've been pretty skeptical about in a lot of ways over the course. course of his career. He's gotten a lot of hype for fantasy. I asked you beforehand, did you say

Christopher Morel to me? No. So Scott, make the case for Christopher Morrell. Now go ahead. Go ahead. I got somebody else I can talk about. You know Scott has eight names written down on a piece of paper somewhere. Well, yeah, I start, as I started going through them, I was like, fine. I'll pick one who's not a superstar first round caliber player in the past. So yeah, Christopher Morrell, look, I've been pretty skeptical of him. I think his approach is the reason that inconsistency has been a problem for him. I think it's a big part of why he has struggled to live up to expectations. And I do think there still is like legitimate he is no longer an everyday player floor for Christopher Morrell because his defense is so bad. And frankly, his base running is actually pretty bad as well. And his bat's been pretty bad this

season. So like he has to turn it around. But I do think there's still clearly an incredibly talented player there at the skill set for whatever issues it has. He had played to his expected stats prior to this season. His expected stats are significantly better than they had been in the past. And all of a sudden, he's the second biggest underperformer in terms of expected Wobah minus Woba this season. So he, I think there's a wide range of possible outcomes with his skill set. But Christopher Marell is absolutely someone that I think very well could become a must-start

fantasy option at some point. Yeah, I mean, you basically shared everything I was going to share. I will just add the actual numbers to put it in perspective. So he's actually hitting, Morel is hitting 195 with a 370 slug. Sound awful. He's been pretty productive in fantasy considering he's batting 195 with the 370 slug. But obviously those aren't good numbers. His expected batting average is 251.

His expected slug is 472, which are obviously much better numbers. And I expect him, I've been expecting all along him to catch fire at some point and catch up to those expected marks. And I still think it's going to happen at some point over the final three months here. So that's Christopher Morel. The other player I considered highlighting is lower in than that. And it's a similar case to Christopher Merrell. And it's Trevor Larnock of the twins who first, three years had a strikeout rate over 30%. It was awful. It's hard to succeed with the

strikeout rate that high. It's down to 18% this year. Other end of the spectrum. And while Christopher Morel has lost a little bit of exit velocity with his improved contact, Trevor Larnock hasn't lost any. He's always hit the ball hard. This year, average exit velocity is 90th percentile. Max exit velocity is 89th percentile. You want good expectations. You want good. expected stats. They're both both both the XBA and X slug are better than 90th percentile two for for Trevor Larnick. 291 with a 511 slug is what stat cast says he should have.

His actual marks 256 batting average with 440 slugs. So he's he's underperforming them quite a bit. But with the quality of contact and the amount of contact Trevor Larnick is making, I can understand why the twins are giving him every opportunity to seize a job in their outfield before turning to Brooks Lee. they may end up having an opening for Brooks Lee that doesn't require them shifting Willie Castro to the outfield.

But right now I can understand why Larnick is standing in Brooks Lee's way with the way those numbers look. Sits against left-handers, but that could change if he gets hot enough if he starts to live up to the expected stats. And Larnick's somebody who's totally off the radar in fantasy now.

So I thought it was a good time to highlight the improvements that he appears to have made, even though they're not backed up yet. Can I get one more? Yeah, I'll love it. All right. O'Neill Cruz, you know, is a guy that we've had a lot of expectations for

and has not really lived up to them. He's been better over the past couple of months, and what we've seen is strikeout rate has gone from 30% in May. It was like 28% in June. And O'Neill Cruz hits the ball so hard, and he's such a good athlete that if he can keep it in that 28 to 30% range,

I think he's going to be a must-start fantasy option, at least in any categories, leagues, points league, it'll probably be a little more fringy, but that's the one where the floor, the floor for his skill set is probably about 30% striker at it. If he can get to that and keep it below that, I think he's going to be really good. And I just think we are going to see an O'Neill-Cruist stretch

where he puts up an 1100 OPS for a month. I just think that's going to happen. The quality of contact. Time to eat. 121.5 mile per hour max exit Velo, that is the hardest hit ball in the majors this season. He still has the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era. 95 mile per hour average exit velocity,

17% barrel rate. There is going to be a stretch where O'Neill Cruz just goes. was absolutely bonkers, and we haven't seen the best of him yet. I just wonder, can he get to that stretch being this bad against lefties? That is the biggest downfall for me right now is that against lefties this year, a 111 batting average, 341 OPS, 36% strikeout rate. I believe that's an improvement over the last month or so. It's just so bad.

It's really bad. He can go on a stretch where he just dominates righties, but it's not like lefties are just going away. I mean, he still plays against them, but man, he's just been so, so bad against them. Brooks Lee just got promoted. Yes, I actually saw that. And again, the timing for this is weird because we'll talk about that more on Thursday's podcast, which will come out. Put him on my sleeper list. Yeah, whatever.

But we'll talk about it. Don't worry. You'll hear about Brooks Lee before Friday's podcast. You're not worried about Brooksley's exit velocities? Yeah, Brooksley's fine. Oh. Wow. Wow.

And he doesn't even have a dad who used to be in the majors. So that's a little weird, too. some second half breakouts for me. Someone I've talked a lot about recently is Jackson Truro, who had a pretty solid June. I mean, not that the counting stats have been great yet, but a batting average over 300 and 897 OPS in the month. Four homers, one steel.

We spoke about this just the other day. Chris and I, the sprint speed is still fantastic for Chorio. So if he's hitting for this batting average and getting on base, I think the steals are going to come. And we've just seen this play out so many times where prospect gets called up, is okay, kind of flounders around the first half, and then the second half comes and just really starts

to put everything together, and I can see that happening for Jackson Trio. Same thing with Wyatt Langford, another name, we spoke a lot about recently, hit for the cycle last Sunday, and had a solid June as well, 309 batting average, three homers, six deals, 894 OPS.

There's just too much power there for it not to show up at some point. So, you know, while he only hit three home runs in June, with the weather heating up and him kind of tapping in and pulling the ball more. I just see big second halfs coming for both of these guys

who are just uber talented and not breaking any news there, obviously. And we are recording this before Gavin Williams's debut, but I could see him making a big impact in the second half. He was a big name pitching prospect, one of the top prospects entering 2023, and he pitched well last year,

329 ERA. The whip on the higher side, walks could be a problem, but right around a strike, out per inning, 12% swinging strike rate. There was lots of enthusiasm for him coming into the season, has missed almost the first half with that elbow injury, but he's rehabbed, he's looked all right, he's coming back,

and obviously pitching for one of the best teams in baseball. So some pretty obvious candidates, I think, here, but anything you guys would like to add, Langford, Truro, Gavin Williams, second half breakouts. No, I mean, I think if you're just going to gamble on pedigree, that's that's that's kind of a tried and true method for picking out breakouts so if for no other reason and obviously we've seen some signs of improvement from Langford and Enchiorio here recently that adds to the optimism you may have for them and I do want to kind of reiterate something

Chris was saying earlier about the maybe the obvious cases you know so much so much of my mental energy and bandwidth this season has been devoted to explaining why underachieving stud hitters are going to bounce back. And just because we're not talking about them here doesn't mean

I don't think they're going to bounce back. Chris mentioned Julio Rodriguez and Fernando Tatis, both of which I'd agree with, except I don't know given the nature of Tatis's injury. When we're going to see him again, might not be till September. If at all, it might be in July.

It might be two weeks. It might be two months. Yeah. But also Austin Riley, Matt Olson to a lesser extent, basically any stud hitter, any hitter who was drafted as stud is still underperforming given the way the offensive environment across the league this year. I still expect to have better numbers in the second. I even say that for Corby and Carroll, who has perhaps been the most concerning.

So just kind of a catch-all take for all of them there. And, you know, to color that a little bit, you know, right before we went on the air, I did a little bit of research looking at the, there's been a lot of discussion of like, is there any precedent for what Corby's done this season? Going from a superstar to and also ran this year. And so I decided to look up the biggest drops from one year to the next in Woba over the past 30 seasons. He actually only has the 15th biggest, which I found kind of surprising. I mean, only it's like out of 500 qualifying seasons. So that's still really bad. But one thing that was heartening was, you know, you.

look at the list of the biggest drops from one year to the next, the following year for like six of the 15 biggest, we're also among the 15 biggest risers, which is just to say that there can be explanations for why players are going wrong. We talked about Julio Rodriguez on Wednesday's podcast and all of his power has been to the center field and right and left center, none to the pole side this season. There can be explanations for why a player is struggling. And also, you should still believe. that these elite players are going to figure it out is the best way to put it and become elite players again. I'm more skeptical about Corbyn Carroll because we saw it start in the second half of last season, but I still think certainly Corbyn Carroll is going to have a better second half than his first half. I feel pretty confident in that.

Well, it's hard for him to get worse, I guess, Chris. But yeah, hopefully it does happen. It's just such a weird situation. And we've speculated on the shoulder, but the fact that we haven't heard anything about it. Hasn't missed any times. This recording, Corbyn Carroll's actually outscored Matt Olson in points leagues, which was another thing I was surprised to see.

Yeah, that's pretty surprising. Yep. All right, let's slide over to the bust. Always tougher to figure out which players. I mean, look, there's obvious candidates we can talk about, you know, FIP minus X FIP and FIP minus ERA, excuse me, and, you know, expected numbers and the obvious candidates there. But Scott, who are some names for you that could,

to take a step back here in the second half? Well, I really tried for this podcast to pick out players that we haven't talked about a bunch, but I'm going to get the most obvious out of the way here real quickly, Tyler Anderson, who maybe already started his dissent into disaster with his last two starts. He has been like a huge. overachiever by all measures all season long I think I believe he has the second biggest gap between his ERA and his expected ERA and his ERA and his fit the second biggest biggest for both of those Tyler Anderson so but any way you want to measure what ERA should be Tyler Anderson is overachieving

and I think it's going to be a true bus scenario where for people who still have him it's going to be like I can't get this guy off my roster fast enough because you know because you could point to like Ranger Suarez and Seth Lugo, a lot of the pitchers that we've been talking about all season longer overachieving. But I don't think either of them are going to reach a point where it's like, I don't want them on my roster anymore. Tyler Anderson absolutely will if he isn't already there.

So that's the obvious one. I'm going to double down on Jerks and ProFAR coming back down to Earth too. He's kept it going longer than I imagined. I finally had to concede to moving him into the top 25 in my outfield rankings, but I still don't really believe in it. given his 11-year track record of being just the epitome of mediocrity.

And for the most part, a lot of the underlying numbers look the same, except for the obvious, okay, he's hitting the ball a little harder on average, the barrel rate is higher. But it's not like there's been this extensive change in the underlying numbers that would make it obvious. Okay, Jerks and Brof are clearly a better player now. And it may have already started for him, too, because since June 1st, he's betting 271 with the 777 OPS, only three home runs.

Not terrible numbers. Again, not like, oh, I got to drop this player. Sure, useful, yeah. But kind of trending down, and I think it's only going to get worse for Jerks and ProFar. Yeah, I thought about Jerks and ProFar, too. I mean, the fact that he makes as much contact as he does, he has hitting the ball a lot harder this year. It's just outfield has been a pretty bad position. I think it is more likely than not.

He does take a bit of a step back. maybe still useful, but not the superstar, oh gosh, superstar that we saw in the first half with jerks and pro far. Chris. But I want to go further and say, I think he could get to the point where he's not even useful. Fair enough. Because, yes, he is hitting the ball harder on average, but what happens if he stops hitting the ball harder on average?

You know, that doesn't mean, just because he's done it to this point, doesn't mean that's like a sticky skill that he's developed. Yeah, sometimes guys are just hot. Yeah. Chris, over to you. second half bust. I think there is one even more obvious case than Tyler Anderson. And that is the guy who,

so Tyler Anderson is outperforming is expected ERA by 1.75 runs, which is a massive number. It is also nearly three quarters of a run lower in a gap between his XERA and his actual ERA than Reynaldo Lopez's, who has a 183 ERA, seems all but certain to make the odds. All-Star game. That's great. There is certainly no track record of a brave starting pitcher making the All-Star game with like a sub-2-ish

ERA over the past, let's say, year and then completely falling apart in the second half. There's just, that's never happened. I don't know. Except it did happen with Bryce Elder. I don't know that the audience understood. Bryce Elder is who I was referring to last year. Now, look, they are different pitchers, right? Ronaldo Lopez, many more

strikeouts. His strikeout rate is up to 26%. The thing there is I just don't buy that he's a 26% strikeout rate guy. His slider whiff rate is 45%. It was 38% last year. He's changed up 41. It was 33% last year. I don't really think that either of those are going to be sustainable. So I think the strikeout rate's

going to come down. Walk rate remains pretty mediocre, quality of contact. I mean, he went, what was it? Was it Tuesday night? five innings, two earned runs despite walking four. Two earned runs over four and a third innings. Even that is like, how did he get away with that? He walked four, the quality of contact metrics weren't good.

He's getting outstanding results on balls and play. His expected Wobon contact is 403. That's actually the second worst mark of his career. Significantly worse than the 369 major league average. I think Rinald Lopez is someone who, look, the RP eligibility is great. He is already at a point in innings pitch that he has not been at in six seasons since 2019. Add it all up and it just, I think there's a very good chance that Reynaldo Lopez is just dropable outside of maybe points leagues because of the RP eligibility.

But I could see a point where he's just like Jordan Hicks. He's not going deep enough into games that it doesn't really matter that he's RP eligible anyway. So he's one. And then I will say real quick, Chris, on Ronaldo Lopez. Is there a chance that he just gets moved back to the bullpen at some point? I don't, maybe if, I think he would have to struggle a lot, right? Like, he's a veteran. I just worry about the innings, you know?

Well, they've been, they've been so careful with his innings. Only once this year has he started on regular rest. Yeah, his next start is going to be the second time. Second time. And I think you mentioned, Chris, there have been a lot of five-innings starts lately. So I think they've been kind of managing the workload all season. I don't think that's what would push him back to the bullpen is, as effective as he's been.

But if he struggles and, you know, Ian Anderson comes back in the second half and looks like the Ian Anderson of old and Schwellenbach takes a step forward, it's not outside the realm of possibility. I think it's, I think the odds are pretty low that Lopez goes back to the bullpen, but it's worth mentioning. And then I want to point just another guy who I think we all generally believe in as a very good pitcher, but I think there are some warning signs in the profile. That's Tanner Howk, who,

has had an excellent first half, although he has certainly slowed down as well. It was a tough June 485 ERA. It was mostly the last start, but he's another guy who's outperforming his expected stats by quite a bit. The strikeout rate is up, but it's not great at 24%. The biggest change for Tanner Halk has the walk rate has gone from 9% to 4.3%.

Maybe that'll sustain, but he's lost a lot of whiffs on most. of his pitches the whiff rate is down. I just, I think he's probably more like a mid to high three ZRA guy than what we've seen so far. And that should still make Tanner Halk a very, very valuable pitcher to have,

but I don't think he's the difference maker he's looked through most of the first three months. And I think that's a good, go ahead, Scott. I feel like he's kind of been Walmart Ranger Suarez this year where both, like they're basically the same pitcher. Yeah, I mean, they're 24% strike-out rates, yeah.

But in terms of ground balls and walks and the improvements they've made this year, he hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as Rangers for us, but he's been about as dominant, and maybe we'll progress to about the same point, too. And I think it's a fair transition for my second half bus and check the bias at the door. This one hurts me to say, Shota Ibnaga.

And I think this is relative to expectations, too, because I still think he could pitch to a mid-to-high-3s ERA, but I think that might leave people disappointed, just based on what he's done for most of the first half of the season. The weather is heating up, the ball is flying out, he's a fly ball pitcher, he does give up barrels. Teams are going to start to see him a second time. And not just because this happened already once,

but the only time a team has seen him a second time was the Mets start where he got absolutely destroyed. I'm not saying that's going to happen every time he faces a team for a second time. But the fact that, all right, they maybe start. to figure something out with that deceptive fastball or the splitter? Does he have a third pitch that he can rely on that he can go to consistently? So as much as I love I'menaga, love, like I'maaga, and I think he'll be a serviceable pitcher. I could just see the numbers kind of regressing and taking up a step back in the second half.

And maybe that will kind of catch some people by surprise. Yeah, I think it's a good call. I didn't think of it. But, you know, I think the more, as always goes for bus picks, I think the more likely scenario is that he doesn't. bust, but there is, it's certainly plausible that it goes the way you laid out. All right, let's take our final break. And when we return, we'll hit some of your mailbag questions right after this. Welcome back in.

Let's talk some mailbag questions. And this one is from Josh. You highlighted Bryce Terrang on your July 1st pod, so I thought I would take a look. Brendan Donovan has had a solid season through the end of June. And all of the metrics predict that he will improve rest of season. and Bryce Terang has played better than Donovan so far through the end of June slightly. But all of the numbers show a hefty regression coming. His ground ball rate is greater than 50%.

And his bad-up is 3.38. Barrel rate, 3.3% hard-hit rate. 33% are terrible. Sounds like luck to me. In nowhere in this email did you mention stolen bases. That's the problem. Terang is one of the very best at it, Donovan. basically doesn't do it.

So, yeah, that's, that's, that's the distinction. The hitting stuff is secondary. And I will say like, Donovan does have better quality of contact metrics than Bryce terrain, but it's not like he's significantly underperforming them. He has a 338 expected woba, a 332 actual wope. He has a 275 expected batting average, a 270 actual batting average. So I kind of think when you look at Brendan Donovan, it's reasonable to, think that Bryce Terang has had the best three months of his season.

I would probably agree with that. I don't think he's a, what's he up to, 280, 27 batting. I don't think that's likely to be the case moving forward. But I don't really see a big breakout coming for Brendan Donovan. I kind of think he is what he is and what he is is maybe a slightly above average hitter overall. Terang, you know, you bring up like a 50% ground ball rate and the low hard hit rate and all that stuff is like, Ground balls are good for him.

Yeah, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Right. That's part of the reason his batting average is improved because he's put the ball on the ground more than last year. You don't want him to be Willie Mays Hayes from Major League too. Yeah, I think if he hits 270 the rest of the way, 265, 270, but he still steals 20 more bases,

I don't think, at least in Roto leagues, there's any question that you'd rather have Bryce Terang than Brandon Donovan. In a points league, okay, I could see maybe, be Brendan Donovan being a little better, but on the whole, I'm not moved to, to trade out Bryce Terang for Brendan Donovan, even in a points league. Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to bring up to. Last 28 days, Brendan Donovan's batting 347, a 908 OPS. He's averaging 3.2 fantasy points per game. Bryce Terrang, only hitting 272, a 758 OPS. He's still averaging more fantasy points per game over the last 28 days because he leads off. He gets so many played appearances.

And he steals so many bases. This gets lost when we talk about stolen base specialists in points leagues. Like for a long time, Trey Turner was clearly still a first round caliber, maybe early second round caliber points league player. And he would always fall longer than he should just because, well, it's not his format, but it's like,

yeah, but you still get points for stolen bases. You get two of them, actually. So that, I think it would be reasonable to think brand and Donovan could be better than Bryce Terang moving forward. moving forward, but I think on the whole, it's a pretty unexciting fantasy profile.

All right. This next one's from Russ. Grade the trade in a 14-te-te-team head-to-categories, standard 5-5-5. Keeper League where you keep five players each year. Trade it away, Michael Harris, Mani Machado, and Zach Gallen received Jose Ramirez and Walker Bueller. So at this point, you're not keeping Walker Bueller. You might not keep Mani Machado either, but there's no way in a five-keeper, 14-tele. league right now that you're that you're even considering Walker Bueller. Yeah. He's not a top 10 round pick if we were redrafting right now, right?

No, no. And Machado might not be a top 70 player. I think that's probably around where I have him in my overall ranking. So if you're looking just at the keeper value, it's Ramirez for Harris and Gallin. I think on the whole it's a fine trade. I think I'd rather just have the best player in Jose Ramirez, especially with... Clearly the best player.

Yeah, he's by far. Especially with Harris injured. Although even if Harris was healthy. Yeah, I'm not sure. I'm kind of tired of doing the let's overrate Michael Harris again thing for fantasy. So, yeah, I mean, it is 14 teams, which is a deeper league, but only five keepers, so you want the most impactful keepers you can. can get, do you lose something in the short term?

He doesn't say he's out of it, does he? No. And I'm not sure you do. I mean, Harris is hurt right now. You may lose a little in the short term. It depends what your alternatives are, given that it's a 14-team league. They might not be great. Even so, I'm going to give this trade a B-plus.

What if the trade was just Machado and Gallant for Jose Ramirez, the healthy players? I think that's fair. Yeah. That's even better. That's probably an A. Okay, I'm going to get this an A minus your scenario today. All right, this one's from Sander. I am in a shallow, 18 mixed league and need help with home runs and RBI.

My currently rostered first basement are Paul Gulchman and Vinnie P. The available free agents include Jamer Candelario, Ryan Malkastel, Andrew Vaughn, Jake Cronerth. So my question is, should I add one of those free agents? If so, who, or stick it out with Gulchman and Vinny P? I mean, what makes these extremely shallow leagues so tricky is that the whole mid-range is leveled out. You know, like basically Vinnie Pasquantino has no practical value in a league this shallow. Because on a week-to-week basis, because especially since it's a head-to-head league, right,

on a week-to-week basis, how confidently can you say, oh, he's going to perform Jammer Candelario? outperform Jammer Candelari, especially given how hot Candelario has been over the past six weeks or so. So I don't think you should be afraid to drop Vinny Pasquantino. The rest of season, I think Pasquantino is the most valuable of these players. But you kind of just, when you're talking about the mid-tieres like that, you can be in a real shallow league like this. You can be as aggressive as you want to be in swapping one player out for another based on matchups or or schedule schedule yeah or

hotness streakingness I've got them Goldschmidt Pasquantino and Corona 14 through 16 so it's like

flip a coin yeah yeah I think the only way you're going to substantively improve your roster in a way

that you don't have to be so hyperactive as a manager is to find a way to package two non-studs for a stud you just the shallow

of the league you just want to get as many studs that you'd never think of sitting as possible. That's really the only strategy. This next one's from Nick. Many thanks for the fascinating June 26th discussion on ERA

and its general lack of predictability of pitching performance going forward. Please keep talking about ways to get a handle on pitching performance. Two thoughts in this respect. Though good pitching translates across formats, it may be worthwhile to distinguish between points and rotos scoring. Would it be more accurate to say, for example, that innings pitch per outing has more predictable. value in points leagues.

And with that, innings pitch correlates with pitching efficiency as measured by a number of pitches per out registered, again, more relative to points scoring, but also has utility in Roto. Well, efficiency is normally the word I use for Roto leagues, for categories leagues. Well, volume is normally, just if you're just fixating on one concept, volume for points leagues, efficiency for Roto leagues. So it is kind of weird to bring efficient. into the points

league discussion, but I understand what you're saying. I don't know to what extent it's true that innings pitched correlates with pitching efficiency as measured by number of pitches per out registered. You'd think it would be true,

but a lot of times starts are limited more just because the guy's young and the team is looking to limit his innings or they don't trust them to face a lineup the third time. So there probably is some correlation there, but I'm not sure it's as clear as you think. I honestly haven't looked into it.

Well, I think the thing that is worth talking about here is that these things are all related, right? Like, Seth Lugo is going to throw a lot of pitches, and he's going to pitch deep into games, regardless of how well he's pitching, because he's just got that kind of arm, and the Royals clearly trust him. But I think you look at Renaudo Lopez,

and we talked about earlier. his first 12 starts of the season he averaged five and two-thirds innings per start he had 69 innings and 12 starts that's in this environment that's really good the problem is he was only throwing 85 pitches per start he wasn't actually like pitching he was pitching deep into games but it wasn't because ah this guy is built to he's a he's a horse and he can go it's because he was getting a 264 BAB and a 203 bat bat batting average against and a 1 6 like when you pitch better you pitch deeper into games this is something we've talked about a lot over the years with Blake Snell who can pitch deep into games in those stretches where he's pitching really well and getting

great results my cats are fighting behind me I'm sorry um but when things go poorly like if reynaldo lopez is a four ERA pitcher he's probably going to average five innings per start and nothing else will have changed except he's just not getting outs as efficiently. And so it's, these are, these are some pitchers certainly have the ability to pitch deeper into games, Sandy Alcantra, Seth Lugo, you know, that, that's true. But that is going to be correlated to the results that they're getting. And that is still tied to the impossible or near impossible to predict nature of pitching. So I, I don't know if there's a ton of value to be derived from trying to, you know, this guy's a little more efficient

because that's inherently tied to the results that they're getting, which we know are highly unpredictable. This last question is from Angel. 12 team head to head categories league on Yahoo, four keepers, minimum one pitcher and one hitter. I drafted Paul Skeens in the 20th round.

I do not care about the keepers that much since I won't be returning to the league next year. Oh, wow, that's a little messed up. Trade Paul Skeens and Corby Carroll for Sunny Gray and Rafi Devers. No, I have Devers ranked ahead of Carroll and I have Skeens ranked ahead of Gray. So I think you're giving up the worst player

in both sides of this deal. Wait, no, no, no, no, he's not. No, yeah, he gives up Skeins and Carroll. He gets Sunny Gray and Devers, yeah. He's getting the better hitter, according to your rank. He's getting the worst pitcher. The better hitter and Devers, the worst pitcher in Skeens.

I don't know if this is a big enough upgrade to do it. I mean, it could, look, going from Carol to Devers, if you're covered in speed and you're really just looking for batting average and power at this point, that is a pretty big upgrade.

Yeah, I mean, I'm trying not to consider that he won't be returning to the league next year because I just don't think that's right. I played in a Keeper League with a prominent baseball writer who I won't name,

who basically traded away all his long. long-term assets and won the league and then dropped out of the league. And I just thought it just didn't sit well with me. It was Wayne Pizenga. It's a little dated reference. I'm sorry. Yeah.

It just didn't sit right with me. I've never been able to think of that guy the same way again. But yeah, I don't think it's a good enough deal to justify the keeper loss here, which I think is the more. I think it's better for the audience to approach the question that way, too, because rarely are people looking at a trade from the perspective of, oh, I'm not going to be in the league next year. I think the fact that Skeens is capable in round 20 or whatever, to whatever degree that helps you this year to get Devers and gray instead of Skeins and Carroll,

I don't think it's worth pursuing, because I'm not even confident it helps you this year. It's pretty fair by my trade values chart, but that's with admittedly what I think is probably an overly generous valuation of Corbyn Carroll. So I think in a vacuum, you're probably getting a better package. You're probably getting a better package. But if, you know, if Carol bounces back in the second half, we all think he's, you know, more valuable at his best than Raphael Devers. So I think it's risky even without getting into the keeper aspect.

But once you consider the keeper aspect, it's probably not worth doing. And even if you are leaving the league, you still have to think about the implications moving forward for the next year. This person that's getting Paul Skeens, even though you don't care you're leaving the league, that is maybe one of the best keepers in the league. Paul Skeens in the 20th round. That changes things for everyone else. Yeah, I mean, even if you want to think of it from the selfish, who cares what happens to the other guy next year scenario, it's like you should be able to get more for Skeens with the 20th round keep. cost. Yeah, that's also fair. Yeah, I agree with that. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a 5-star rating on Apple or Spotify and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.