Fantasy Baseball Today - Severino's Value, OF Leftovers, Regulators! (02/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 26, 2020

Big show today with a lot of your emails! First we discuss Luis Severino's dynasty value. Who should you give up to acquire him? And what other Spring Training injuries are we concerned about right now (6:15)? ... Some theories about how the Astros will perform this season and what it means for Fantasy (10:00). Then we discuss outfielders you can draft after Round 15 (16:25). Who do we like in this range? Mark Canha, Nomar Mazara, Ryan Braun and more to put on your radar ... Emails (36:05)! We answer questions about what to do in Round 3, what to do in auctions, when to draft Nelson Cruz and much more. Then the Fantasy Regulators are back to solve your league disputes (55:40)! ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. It's Wednesday. It's hump day.

And we are talking fantasy baseball. I was about to say we are humping, but I thought it would be inappropriate. So I'm just not going to say it. Definitely not going to say it. I mean, you said it, though. I didn't say it. I said I'm not going to say it. And then he still said it?

Saying you're not going to say something. He's still saying it. No, big difference, Chris. One would be completely inappropriate. Anyway, Louis Severino needs Tommy John surgery. J.D. Davis had an MRI. Chris Sayle won't be ready for opening day. We'll talk about that.

Talk a little bit about the Astros. We got our outfield leftovers, our favorite late-round picks at Outfield. And then a bunch of your emails at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. And then our good friends, the regulators, are swinging by a little bit later. It's the first fantasy regulators, I think, of 2020, at least in a long time. No? No. February?

I think we did at least one. Yeah, definitely the first in February. Okay. Were you here the whole month of February? I don't know. I'm pretty sure he was. All right. First in several weeks?

Yeah, first in a minute. Okay, first regulars in a way. If you have a league dispute, a commissioner issue and you want us to solve it, send an email to Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com and put Fantasy Regulators in the subject line. We will play the regulators music and talk about your Fantasy League. That's basically all it is. Let's go right to the news and notes. Luis Severino's out for the year with Tommy John surgery.

The replacement options are not that exciting. Jordan Montgomery is probably going to be in the rotation, at least till Paxson. Justin's back. Louis Sessa, Jonathan Llewis. Sessa seems like belief. Jonathan Loisaga. Michael King, Davy Garcia. Davy Garcia is a kind of sexy prospect.

I don't know, at least in Yankee land. No, he is. Okay. But more importantly, what do you think about Louis Severino's future? He threw 12 innings last year. So that is going to be 12 innings in two years. And he probably won't be ready for opening day next year. He had a 298 ERA in 2017, 339 in 2018.

Really good. But Scott, what's the outlook right now for Severino? Well, it looks worse because the Yankees didn't catch it sooner, which is also the case in the James Paxton injury, right? These guys could have had these things done at the beginning of the offseason. Yeah, that's got to be frustrating as the Yankees. Yan. It's ridiculous. They both were hurt during, like playing hurt during the playoffs. It's not. It's crazy. It's not just them. Like that training stat, I don't know how much

they fired everyone. They fired everyone. They replaced the entire training staff. Yeah, that they've had some really, really bad injury luck. I mean, they ruined John Carlos Stanton. All of a sudden, he can't stay healthy. Right. But I, I think this is a time to buy him in the dynasty league I mean he's still what 25 like it's still got his whole career ahead of him and you know

Scott you miss his birthday what do you mean how am I saying anything controversy no you missed his birthday I thought you cared about Louis Severino he just turned 26 last week oh okay yeah I had someone reach out and ask

about a dynasty trade for Louis Severino they'd be giving up Philly's prospect Spencer Howard I love that. I think if you can get a non, if you can give up a non-elite starting pitching prospect for Luis Severino, I think you go for it.

Yeah, I think pretty much anybody but McKenzie Gore and Jesus Luzardo, I think I'd deal any pitching prospect for Severino straight up because we, like he's twice over. He's proven to be a cyan caliber pitcher

in the majors. And some of the health issues he's had are, in recent years are now explained. And there's a good chance he comes back from this procedure. I'd say a better chance than not. He comes back from this procedure as strong as ever.

All right. Well, it's a shame, and he will not be pitching this year. The Yankees won the ALEs with him throwing 12 innings, so that's pretty impressive. But I also think there's a chance they go opener with Chad Green, for what that's worth. They did that pretty successfully last year. Now, Jordan Montgomery could have a more permanent spot now with us,

because he was already, canceled into that fifth spot with Paxton being out. Right. And he's okay. I actually, in looking at him yesterday, I wrote the Luis Severino injury reaction. I wrote about their potential rotation options in-house,

as well as some guys that you can add if you've already drafted Louis Severino. And Montgomery's pretty good. He's got three plus secondary pitches in terms of whiff rate and results. The issue for him in 20, we have to go back to 2017 was when he was in the, yeah. The issue for him back then was his fastballs just got crushed both the sinker and the four seamer, but he's a Yankee, he's not going to throw a lot of fastballs anyway.

That's just kind of how they roll. And the fact that he's got, you know, a good curveball change up and slider, it makes me think that there could be better results than even what we saw in 2017, which was pretty good. Look, 380.8 ERA, 362 ERA, a little less than a strikeout per inning in his first two seasons. One of them was very abbreviated.

So, yeah, he's, okay, he's all right. He's all right. Maybe we'll talk about him tomorrow on the starting pitcher preview. Next news item, Freddie Freeman has elbow soreness, but it does not appear to be a big deal. But that is a continuation of what plagued him in September. Is anybody concerned about Freddie Freeman? Plagged him for the last couple of years, is what he said. He had bone spurs and bone fragments removed from his elbow and was quoted in January saying this is the first time he's been pain free in several years, which, I mean, he was so good last year playing through that injury that it was like, well, he could be even better now that he's healthy.

And now, yeah, it's a little bit of a concern. It's not like move him down your draft boards. he's already going, I think, relatively low based on how the three of us expect him to play. So it's just, it's a red flag. It's something to watch. It sounds like it's a scar tissue situation. The brave said they anticipated it.

So I'm, you know, it's not, it doesn't, it's not like it doesn't raise the concern at all, but I'm, I'm mostly just ignoring it. J.D. Davis had an MRI on his left shoulder, revealed no structural damage. Can we ignore that right now with J.D. Davis? Um, this has the potential to put his opening day status in doubt, I would think, but it doesn't sound like it's a major long-term issue.

All right, that's J.D. Davis. Aaron Judge, still out with a shoulder issue. Kind of like Freeman. He's had shoulder issues in the past. Are we worried about that? It sounds like he's on the verge of returning last I saw, right? Yeah. So if they're this early in spring training, they're going to let them, they're going to put him in a game. It's probably not a big deal. All right. Aaron Judge. Now, Chris Sale, he's healthy, but he will not be ready for opening day reportedly because of pneumonia. So he had pneumonia. He's pushed back a little bit. And I think the one player that I just don't know how to feel about

more than any other player in fantasy baseball is Chris Sale. I think the issue is he got sick and he lost like five or ten pounds and now they can't find him. Gosh. Yeah, he is a bin dude. Yeah, no, we can't we can't have this, right? Like the arm injuries are going to happen.

You're going to have somebody who pops up and needs Tommy John. That's going to happen to the starting pitcher pool. But you got James Paxton's back. You got Mike Clevenger's knee. And now you've got this pneumonia situation with Chris Sale. Oh, man, that's that's

four of that ever critical It's 10% of them Yeah, top 40. Yeah, that top 40 that I keep talking about that you kind of need to build the bulk of your pitching staff with And four of them are not going to be available at the start of the season now And it's still February.

So that's That's only going to make the competition for the healthy ones fiercer And Justin Verlander was scratched with groin discomfort, but he will throw a simulated game instead. So that one really does seem precautionary. Welcome to starting pitcher. And hopefully we welcome you to our Facebook group.

You can now find it, Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. And come on in. We got some new additions yesterday. So that was exciting. And we're probably about 1,000 people now. I'd like to get that up to 5,000. I mean, I think we have, I know we have enough listeners. So join our Facebook group.

conversations were posted in there, keeper questions and leagues to join, stuff like that. I was jumping in the conversation a little bit. Good. I'll, you know, I'll post some comments for sure.

Good, yeah, no, good. And I think we'll, you know, hopefully we'll have some Q&As and stuff like that through the week, or throughout the year. Also,

again, I'll just say, please leave us a nice review on Apple Podcast. It would really help. I had a thought the other day. I know it's not something that I think is going to be very popular.

because, you know, it's not supported by evidence or anything like that. But I'm starting to get a little bit more nervous about drafting Astros. I, for more speculative reasons. So I'll just say that, that it's not concrete stuff. But it's, okay, it's a few things. One, I think it's going to be annoying for that. Like, I think it could be really tough on their clubhouse to have to deal with this all year. Two, I think every team cheats to some degree.

And I don't think they're going to be able to really cheat. I think the microscope is on them. They're going to be, it's almost like a college team that's on probation. You can't do it anymore. So there's that. And three, I was just kind of thinking, like, let's say you were a baseball player. As we've sort of looked at their home versus road splits and said, yeah, look, a lot of them were better on the road than they were at home. But let's say you were a baseball player and you were cheating in half your games.

I feel like that would make you a better all-around player. You'd be doing better. You'd have more confidence. Everybody would think you're great. I think it would carry over. I know. I know. This is a wacky azer thing.

But I don't think. I'm sure there are some people who would agree with you. And I'm not willing to just say, oh, it stopped in 2018. And they definitely weren't cheating in any other way. Because I think every team probably cheats a little bit, which is why I've been kind of surprised. how aggressively people have been speaking out against them. It's almost like, be careful.

You better not have any skeletons in your own closet. Everybody's so sanctimonious. I mean, look, nobody would ever hypothetically go in front of Congress, let's say, and point their finger. Right, right, right. And say that they've never taken steroids and then fail. Like, that's not the kind of,

I don't know what you guys are talking about. Period. Yeah, no, that would do. Right. So I don't know. I'm getting like a little more nervous about it because I think I think this all might really weigh on them a little bit. I have another theory that also can't be really backed up by data. It's just kind of a human nature thing.

I think they're going to be so motivated to validate their championship from 2017, like beyond just the typical team. You can tell just by the way they're reacting, the way, you know, people are saying they should have the championship revoked. and they're like, no, guys, we really earned it. And I'm sure they feel like they would have won even if they hadn't had that going on. And you know what? They might have won if they hadn't had that going on. So I think just because there's so much, they're taking it personally now that the way the people are undermining the championship they won. And look, it's fair to undermine the championship I want.

I'm not saying people are wrong to say that about the Astros. But based on the way their big players are responding to it, it, they're not, they're not going to go quietly. Yeah, I think we need a new musical cue. Okay. For these discussions. Can you tell me how to get,

how to get to narrative street? What? That's all, like, that's all this is. It's just competing hypothetical narratives that are totally unproven. And like, yeah, there could be a me against us against the world factor that brings the clubhouse closer together.

they get riled up, they start like putting a poster board of Mike Fires and start taking pieces of his clothing off with every wind that they get. Like, it's possible. It's possible that they're mentally weak and they can't handle the scrutiny that's going to come because they're going to be taking questions about it every day. All of these things are possible. I just, I don't see what value there is in trying to account for it while building your team, especially when they're already, it's not like you're paying face value for any of the Astros at this point.

Like pretty much across the board, they're getting discounted. There is no value to it. It just seemed like an interesting discussion to have. You're paying up for Bregman. You're not paying up for Springer. But you're not. You are paying up for Bregman.

Absolutely. You're paying a high price, but you're not paying face value. I think you are paying face value. Maybe not in a points league since he was the number one hitter. But in Roto League, since he doesn't really steal bases,

I think you absolutely are. Yeah, his ADP is ninth overall. Yeah, that's fine. That makes sense. I've seen him go later than that, sure. Yeah. Some of these TGFBI leagues, he's gone in the second round. Those are 15-team leagues.

Yeah, I've seen him like 19th, 20th overall. I don't think, if he's going that late, then that's insane. But I don't think anyone else is being discounted because of the cheating. I think Springer's being discounted because he's had, he hasn't had a year. like he did in 2019. I think Al Tuve is being discounted because of his age. He doesn't run and, you know, some down performance the last couple of years.

Alvarez is kind of interesting because if he's outfield eligible, then he's a huge discount. If he's DH only, then he's appropriate. Brantley is being discounted, though. So that, yeah, I don't, maybe they are, maybe there are. I just think,

I just think Brantley has always been a little underrated in a roto context. Yeah. Alex Breggman Knight Steel bases this year That's one of my hot takes Alex Breggman 20 steel season When we do bold predictions

Remind me of that That'd be nice It wouldn't shock me if Altubei stole 15 bases Yeah he's still His sprint speed still is still hot Yeah like it I just I feel like there is

Like Jose Altuve is coming off A 298 31 Homer season And has A track record of being one of the five best players in fantasy for, you know, most of the last half decade. So, yeah, the fact that he's going in the 30 range, yeah, I think he is being discount. So let's talk about some late round outfielder's in the mid-rounds. I do like Michael Brantley.

In the late rounds, yeah, well, Kyle Tucker's almost late rounds. But we are now, like yesterday we got up to the, basically the top 70 outfielders. We ended. No, I'm sorry. It was the top 60. It was Buxton. Where's Buxton? Fifty-one.

Okay, top 50 outfielders. 180 picks, 15 rounds. After that, let's get to some more names. Just going to throw out names. And without this being the rest of the show, guys, tell me who you like and who you don't like. We got Hunter Dozier, J.D. Davis, Adam Eaton, Scott Kingery, and Andrew McCutcheon.

Hunter, Dozier, J.D. Davis, Adam Eaton, Scott, Kingery, Andrew McCutcheon. Do we know how I feel about Jaydie Davis? You know how I feel about J.D. Davis. He's a player I love. If the shoulder issue becomes the thing that impacts

availability at the start of the year, I guess we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. But the Mets beatwriter for MLB.com, I forget his name, but I was reading his mailbag the other day, and he said, you know, an assessment isn't going to be ready to play the field on opening day. That's not a realistic possibility

and that J.D. Davis is absolutely going to be the Mets starting left fielder on opening day. So like that, from a voice of authority, a better voice of authority than I am, that was pretty definitive that J.D. Davis is going to play a big role

for the Mets this year. And I'm not, I'm not sure the reason to wait this long to take, take him if that's the case because 300 batting average 900 OPS in a way that the data backs up. I mean, that's that's awesome production for the 180 range and you could use it at third base or the outfield. So J.D. Davis, of course, I love him. Scott Kingery, I think, is one of the most underdrafted players. Like, he seems like a likely 2020 man in an environment where all the Steel's guys are going for,

you're having to reach for them, without a doubt. Caesar Hernandez is gone. Mike Helfranco's gone. Kingery's going to play more than he did last year. And if you just project out the numbers, he's right at 2020. I could see something similar to what Tommy Fam does. Yeah, without the plate discipline. And, you know, points league there's going to be a gap in the value still.

But yeah, in a 5 by 5 context could be very similar. All right, next group we've got, oh, I don't know if you said anything about McCutcheon, but I just want to say that before his injury last year, towards ACL. He was a top 20 outfielder in points leagues. Let me see exactly what the numbers were, but he was batting lead off,

if I recall, or at least he was the number 14 outfielder in points, number 34 in Roto. So, he's not really a Roto guy, but he still has good plate discipline. This is the 2019 version of McCutcheon. Being 33 years old coming off an ACL injury is one

thing, but if he plays like he did last year, he's just like wait wait wait make him your third outfielder in points leagues okay moving on jock peterson garrett hampson nick senzel justin upton alex verdugo jac peterson garret hampson nick senzel Justin upton Alex verdugo i wrote about bounceback candidates for 2020 uh for cbssports dot com and i kind of broke them down into like bet on it health permitting not sure and i had justin upton a long shot, but I actually like his chances of bouncing back better than basically anyone else in the long shot group. He kind of seems like someone who should mostly just get a pass for

2019. He had that toe injury in spring training and turf toe is a really tough injury to come back from me. We see it in every sport. We've seen it ruined seasons in football. We've seen it ruined seasons in baseball. I think he's mostly going to come back and be the guy that he was before last year, and that guy gets to play in probably the best lineup he's been in in a long time. So I think you're looking at 30 homers, a batting average that's probably pretty neutral, and maybe the threat of 15 steals isn't there anymore, but he probably won't be a total zero there.

Yeah, I don't think you should expect 2017. He was the number seven outfielder. points number five in roto but other than that justin upton's usually somewhere in the outfielder 20 to 30 range at the end of the season um steals might kind of push him one way or the other but he's obviously a guy that's in your lineup and yes he missed he missed 71 games with turf toe he homered on the first pitch he saw he homered three times in his first six games and then he slumped very badly and needed a PRP injection in his knee at the end of the year and he was also dealing with patel or tendinitis during spring training. So there's a lot of risk, but there's reward there in round like 19 or 20.

Scott, who else in that group? Would you be interested in? Jock Peterson, Garrett Hampson, Senzel, Upton, Verdugo. Well, Garrett Hampson is another player who I love the value for steals here. I know he doesn't have a dedicated job on the Rockies, but he can play everywhere. He's going to play a lot. And it's possible he's a great contribution. and batting average too and not a zero in power so there there's a lot to like about him here and i think he's very bankable for stolen bases verdugo would be interesting if not for this back issue that this carries over from last year and we're not exactly sure when he's going to be able to play again it's not going to be on opening day but if if he didn't have any health concerns i think

he could be a top 120 player yeah i take him here and put him on my i'll maybe you get a little bit of a discount from this, too. We're at, no, I mean, 220 overall is pretty late. But yeah, he's going to play for the Red Sock. They just acquired him for Mookie Bet, so there's a lot invested there, I'd say, and he's batted 294. Yeah, I think he's good value. All right, next up, Joe, some old and young here, Joe Adele and Shinsu-choo doesn't get much different than that. A.J. Pollack, David Peralta, Luis Arise, and Mitch Hanager, who's going to be out for much of the season, so that ADP is going to keep falling. But Joe Adele, Shinsu Chu, A.J. Pollack, David Peralta,

Luis Arise. You got you drafted any of these guys? Do you want to know how many players here? Guess how many players had at least 24 homers and 15 steals last season? Oh, 12. 12, exactly. Woo! Let's go mean. Who?

Who is going by far the latest on that. I would, I'm guessing. Shinsu Chu? Shinsu Chu He's and The thing is he's also really good in a point Lebe because he walks a ton Shin Su Chu

He's going to fall off at some point But he's basically been treated as an afterthought and fantasy For like five straight years And he's been A pretty significant value in three straight He's not really showing any signs of slowing down He's not really showing any of the typical signs of aging Like he's running as much as

he really ever did, you know, not quite 20 steals, but 15's a really good number. And he's played 146 games, three straight years. Shinsu Chu, value. It is value, but it's not upside. I mean, yeah, it is. I don't really think so, because this is what you should do if you draft Shinsu Chu. You should trade him when he's hot. Because he's streaky, you know, like two straight years, he's been really bad after the All-Star break.

and maybe that's just him being old. He also cannot hit lefties. He's, like, he is better in points leagues. Last two years, he's been the number 26 outfielder and the number 25 outfielder in points leagues. But this is the kind of thing where it's like, you have to know from experience, what is Shinsu Chu in a points league?

Well, there's probably going to be some weeks where he's really, really good. He's going to be on waivers at the start. And then you're going to pick him up, and he's going to be pretty good for you for like a month, and then you're going to find out he's pretty replaceable. That's the way I see it. I don't agree.

I don't think a guy who finishes 20th and 25th or 21st and 25th in the last two years. 25th and 26th. He's probably not getting drafted in a three outfielder league judging by ADP here. He'll end up on, he'll end up starting

for someone. If he's as good as he was last year, he'll end up starting for somebody. I don't know that you can bank on the steals. He had six in 2018. A 12th. A 12 the year before. Yeah, I mean, they've been up and down. But it's, it's, I see him as like a break in case of emergency pick. Like, oh, man, I've gotten, I've gotten burned in the outfield over and over again.

And I really need, I really need something that I know is going to be halfway decent. And you take Chu and maybe he ends up being a little more than halfway decent. And I think he's best. You were just, sorry. Adam, you're singing the praises of Andrew McCutcheon, just not. now. Yeah, I see your point. I think McCutcheon's better, but I see your point.

Chew, to me, his best, is not necessarily points. It's an O.B.P. Because where are you going to find a 370 OBP that late in the draft? You know, like, that's just tremendous. But look, he's safe. He's safe. He's not sexy. But, yes, he's probably undervalued Chin Su Chu.

Did we, did we, Joe Adele? Do you draft him? AJ Pollock, by the way, is apparently going to Patoon with Jock Peterson, so that's no good. David Peralta, David Peralta is going 253rd overall. That's like 10 rounds later than he was going last year. So I'm kind of interested in him. Would you guys rather take a gamble on Joe Adele or draft David Peralta who's going to actually play? I'd rather take a gamble on Joe Adele.

I don't think. It was a fluky power year. Peralta had two years ago, and he seems pretty boring. Can I give you a case for it, Peralta, though? Because he battled injuries last year. He had a shoulder injury throughout the season, then he had surgery. His first 46 games before he went on the IL, he had an 881 OPS. He batted 309 with only seven home runs, but he had 16 doubles and two triples.

And then he got hurt, you know, and he just struggled after that. And also, he was one of those guys in 2018, Peralta. He hit the ball so much harder. So 48.6%. It was still 43.2% last year. I don't know. That's the case. The case is, no, he wasn't as good as he was in 2018,

but before he went on the IL, he had an 881 OPS. He's pretty good. Okay. But yeah, he's not excited. All of that sounds true. Oh, it is true. Yeah. Yeah.

Okay, that's fine. I just want to throw that out there. Hey, if I'm going to take the time to look at the splits, I might as well say him, right? Joe Adele, do you think he, when do you think he gets called up for the Angels? I think he gets called up mid-season, whether it's July or May.

That's hard to say. But not June. Probably depends on how things are going with Justin Upton and how things are going with Adela AAA, but it'll be this season. Okay. All right, moving on, Mitch Hanager. Renfro, now with the raise, Brian Anderson,

with the Marlins, also third base eligible. Avi Garcia, not a full-time player with the Brewers. No more. Oh, here are two guys that we like. I like Mazar quite a bit, based on nothing that he's done in the past. And Chris likes Ryan Broad

based on everything he's done in the recent past. Scott likes Avi. Scott likes Avi. Yeah, Scott likes Avi. It's a trio sleepers for each of us. Yeah, all right, each of us has 10 seconds to make our sleeper case. Scott, you can start with Avi Garcia. It's going to Miller Park, man.

Star making venue. It's transformed players into stars. And Avi Sal Garcia's launch ankle's been going up, and he hits the ball hard. And yeah, it looks like he could get hit a lot more home runs there. But he's not going to play much, is he? I mean, it's... Oh, no, he's going to play. He is?

He's going to play almost every day. How? Mostly, he's going to be their primary right fielder. So where's Braun going to play first? He'll play some right field, but it sounds like more first base, and how much he plays at first base probably depends on how well he handles first base. Okay. And it also sounds like there will be opportunities for Avicel, Garcia to spell Lorenzo Cain in centerfield,

and that would be another way to get Ryan Braun in. But does he be? Garcia, like, he only has a 31.6% fly ball rate. Right, but it's a lot better than, it's been going up. Yeah. And he makes, um, okay. He makes really hard contact. Right.

Okay. Chris. So he could have a home run, a high home run to fly ball rate, especially when you put him in a small park like Miller Park. Ryan Braun. He's one of 15 players over the last two seasons who's had at least 20 homers and 10 steals in each of the last two seasons. He is probably going to be helpful in batting average. He's more of a daily lineups or pure roto player, but at this cost, he's almost certain to provide

a positive return on your investment. My case for Nomar Mazar is just, please just start hitting more fly balls. If he can just change his launch angle, I think he could be really good. It happened for Christian Yelich who went from good to best player in baseball basically he could go from whatever to like ordinary boring player to must start fantasy guy

in like a five outfielder league you know he just has to I'm sorry tired than that I mean we're talking about a pedigree that was more impressive than Christian Yelich's when he was coming up as a prospect you know uh Nomar Mazar was he's been coasting off that

pedigree for four years in fantasy drafts now. And this is the first year where basically everyone's given up on him. And he apparently had been playing through a thumb injury since 2018, but he had surgery in the offseason, so hopefully that helps. That's No more Mazar. All right. Anyone else? I

like Shogo Akiyama. I mean, could bat lead off, steal some bases, get on base for the Reds, and they should have a pretty good lineup. Mike Estremski was really good last year for the Giants. Yeah, he's a sleeper for me. Will Myers

has averaged, I think, 23 homers and 20 steals over the last four seasons, despite not being a full-time player last year and missing a bunch of time two years ago. Probably the first two of those four seasons are carrying the load there, right? Not really, not in terms of the steals and the and the homers. He was like,

I think he's still still 15 bases last year and 500-ish. He had 18 homers and 16 steals last year in 490, he played appearances, is an 11 and 13 in 340 the year before. If he's a 600 plate appearance guy, I mean, you're probably looking at just a better chance

to be a 2020 guy than Scott Kingery who's going 60 spots ahead of him. Okay. We're almost 100 spots. All these scrubs we've been talking about today. I'm using that term kind of loosely, obviously, but we still haven't gotten to Mark Canada's ADP. He's next.

Mark Canada. All right, so here's what we're going to do. We're going to do the draft o meter. Zero to ten. How likely are you to draft these guys? I just want numbers so we can get through so many guys. Ready? Here we go.

Mark Kana. Ten. Zero, I guess. Why? I mean, our collective numbers can't be higher than ten. Yes, it can. Everybody gets an individual number. Mark Kana is a day.

Yeah, like eight, nine. Okay. Shogo Akiyama for the Reds. Four. Six. Yeah, I'll go seven. I'll be the, I'll be the Akiyama guy. Cole Calhoun, Diamondbacks.

Four. Yeah, I'll go five. In a really deep league, I think he's, I think he's a cheap source of power who nobody wants. David Fletcher, his second baseman. I'm just not sure he's going to play, so like two. I think I'll play. I think he's more likely to pay the play.

than Tommy Lestella. So I'll go like a five there too. That's David Fletcher. Mike Yistremski. Six? I'll go seven. Austin Hayes. Some drafts are going to end

before you even have reason to consider drafting Mike Yistremski. But if he's there late and I need another outfielder, he's... All right, we got just numbers, Scott. In my crosshairs. Okay.

Austin Hayes. Three. I will go six. Will Myers. Six. Five. Brandon Nemo. Three.

Corey Dickerson. Three. Four. Kevin Pilar. One. Three. You can end up playing a lot. Nico Goodrum.

One. Not in a standard mix league, but I kind of like him in deeper league. So I'll say five. Niko Goodrum. Okay. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo for the raise. Three or four? Six. Gregory Polanco. Four?

Five. All right. Susugo, by the way. Sutsu Zsigio, Sugo. He's doing pretty well on this O meter. Jackie Bradley. Two. Three, but I end up taking him in the lay rounds in Deeper League. I'm just going to pick three, four more guys here.

Joanna Cespittus. Zero. I'll go three. Austin Riley. Five. Yeah, five sounds good. Brett Gardner. Five sounds good for him, too.

Two more, sorry. Trent, oh, three more. Trent Grisham. Four. Three. Dylan Carlson for the St. Louis Cardinals. Zero? somebody always wants them more than me, so I'll say two.

And finally, Ian Hap for the Cups. Six. Four. All righty. Let's read your emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com and stick around for the regulators a little bit later. This is from Mike. Is it me or does round three suck? The pitchers, Strasbourg, Snell, Bieber, seem like they're in the same tier as the round four pitchers, Sale, Kershaw, Corbyn. The hitters are full of guys that were great last year but don't have a track record, at Alonzo Devers Alvarez Meadows Or more established guys

We're expecting to take a step back Altuve Bayez Bogarts All in all There aren't really any bad picks Just a lot of me picks Meh picks in round three Oh come on First of all if you're looking at it like

I don't need to take a picture in round three Because I can take one in round four You're probably not planning on taking enough pitchers Secondly Yonder Alonzo Was a Mike Trout level back Pete Alonzo Wow.

That was, I don't know what happened there in my mind. I'm sorry. You know what I was thinking was Jordan Alvarez? Oh, yeah, I could see that. I could see that. Because he tends to go in the third round. He was mentioned in the third round.

Yeah. Sorry. Don't, do not apologize. What I was going to say is if you're lumping Yordan Alvarez in with that group, he was a Mike Trout level bat last. Actually, I think he might slip to round four on average. but he should go in round three

I think his point is fair I mean in round two Jady Martinez Jose Ramirez Anthony Rendon are going in round three it is Pete Alonzo Glaber Torres Jose Altovae Yeah don't

Don't draft those guys Don't draft the overrated ones draft the pitcher Or You know if you want an exciting bat I'd reach a little early For Jordon Alvarez Ortele Marte

Just to make sure you get them If you wait until their ADP, there's a good chance you miss out. The thought of taking Cotel Marte in the third round is terrifying. He has had one good season in his career. Last four months of 2018 were really good. The same number as Blake Snell and Shane Bieber and Pete Alonzo and Rafael Devers and Jordan Alvarez and Austin Meadows. Probably a quarter of the player pool, right?

This is why auctions are interesting. because in an auction, if you want, you can take three or four players who go in the first two rounds. No, but I do agree with the email. Emailer, this is a range where I start to get antsy. I'm a little anxious when I'm trying to pick there.

Yeah, you feel like you might be screwing your team up, right? It's nerve-wracking. Yeah. Well, that's how it always is, but we'll do our best to sort through the ones we like. I mean, I think we've pretty much made it clear. we don't like Glaver Torres in this range. Chris has made it very clear he doesn't like Pete Alonzo.

I mean, basically just take Matt Olson four rounds later. Which pitchers are you avoiding here? I'm not taking Strasbourg in the third round. Yeah, I can't take Strasbourg that high. It just, it seems like a huge overreaction to the one year he stayed healthy. Yeah. Man, Chris is being... Well, I mean, with all the guys that...

Injury history guy now. Well, it's just with all the guys we doubt. grade for their injury history, Stephen Strausberg is the one guy who were like, that's it! He's healthy now! Yeah. He can rely on him! It's not just that. Like, before I was skeptical of the performance

on top of it, that it was really going to be Ace Caliper, but I like the changes he made to his pitch selection and the fact he's much more ground ball oriented guy now. It looks more like an ace profile now. He was better in 2017. I understand. You had the highest.

I trust what he did last year more. He had the highest ERA of any of the top 12 pitchers in points or Roto leagues, Steven Strasbourg. Yeah. So, you know, he went 18 and 6. That helped. But 332 ERA is good. It's not the 24th pick in the draft. That's his ADP right now.

Well, it depends on how believable you think it is. Look. I think it's more believable for him than some of the people who outperformed it. Yeah, but he's had a 332 ERA or higher in. four of his last five seasons. It was a different pitcher last year, man. And he had a 332 ERA. Like, it wasn't, look,

ERA matters. And he made steps to have a better. And he didn't have a better ERA. His peripherals It didn't work. His peripherals were basically the same as the previous couple. No, look at the ground ball rate, Chris. Right, right, right. But the actual,

like, yes, the ground ball rate was higher. Although, like, the difference between 2017 and 2019 is five points, which is not nothing, but it's like a ground ball. But it's like a ground, but it's like a ground ball every game, basically.

But I'm talking about like the FIP, Sierra, X FIP, DRA, like pretty much everyone you point to. He's different, like the shape. Yeah,

like the shape more. It's a better shape. All right. Well, ground balls and whiffs. That's what it's all about. If he'd done all that and thrown 170 innings, like he usually does.

nobody's taking him here. Yeah, that's, I think, I think, he's going five rounds later. Who do you want instead? I don't want a third round pick.

Give me two fourth rounders instead. I think I'd take flarity over him. I definitely, I would take flarity over him. Well, I rank flarity over him too, so if that's all we're getting to, then there's no argument.

No, it speaks to the uncertainty here. If somebody takes flarity, I'm not going to say, I can't take Strausbert because the number associated with this round is three. Like,

that's not how drafts work. No, but it speaks to the uncertainty of round three, which is what our e-mailer was talking about, and you're just seeing kind of an uneasiness. Well, if you think the round four picks are more certain, take one of them instead. I just don't get... I don't get it.

I don't get it. I think the point is not so much about round three. I think it's post-round two. And it's a good point. There are only going to be so many players that you feel super comfortable with. Would you take Bryce Harper or Steven Strasper? Strauss.

I take Harper. They're the same guy. Once a pitcher and one's a hitter. Yeah, but they're the same guy. They're the same exact person. Could it be any more different? No, they are the same. I agree.

I see what Chris is saying. They feel like they should be better. They have trouble staying healthy. Not Harper anymore. In Strasbourg's case, you're just paying full price. I mean, you guys are looking at this purely for. from a trustworthiness standpoint as opposed to a team building standpoint.

And it's all about what you, what you're going to need and when you can get it. And this is the chance to get a high-end starting pitcher. And when the round's over, you're going to have much fewer chances to do it. But not if I already took one in round two. Okay. Fair enough.

But maybe you shouldn't. I'm not going to take Bryce Harper. You don't like the hitters in round three. I'd rather have Blake Snell as Stephen Stroudberg. All right, that's for tomorrow. You can have both. Zach from San Jose, California has an email. Dear George Thomas, Theodore, and Abraham, those are presidents.

I'm in a 12-team mixed head-head categories league, and it's an auction. My entire league seems to employ these studs and scrubs. Ooh, you mixed two expressions there. It's either stars and scrubs or studs and duds. You went studs and scrubs. But my entire league seems to employ these studs and scrubs approach. Trout, Yellowich, and Acunae will go for 55 to 60 bucks. there will be value later, but can I really afford to build a team around mid to late round

guys? Interesting. Well, in this context, you're not building it around mid round guys. You're building it around like round four guys. Like that, the idea would be if every, if the top 10 guys, let's say, are going to go for, you know, a significant portion of the player pool, the guys who should benefit would be either the next tier or the following tier who will probably go for, you know, a few bucks less, if not a lot more than that. So I think that's where you probably want to pivot to is really trying to nail down guys in like the 20 to 50 range and get as many of those guys as you can and build a more well-rounded. I would not do that. I think the shallower the format is

the more studs and scrub, the more you need to lead into studs and scrubs. You need the sort of impact players that you're trying to trade half your roster for in June because you're trying to improve your team's overall baseline and the waiver wires overflowing with players you can't roster. So just take that aspect out of it. Get the real difference makers in the auction and trust that you're going to be able to play the waiver wire later on. Now, I know I'm a committed, aggressive waiver wire player. So I am totally comfortable doing this. If you're somebody who kind of, you know, checks every once in a while and maybe you'll see what the top options are every other week, then maybe this isn't for you.

But if you're somebody who's going to be on top of your team every week making moves, then yeah, don't put yourself in the position of having to try and package two-for-one deals to get studs when you could have just had them in the first place. An alternative to the two stars and scrubs, I guess. If everyone in your league is trying to get stars and scrubs and you have to pivot and it's a 12-team categories, like he said, I think that you can really make up for it with the round three to five starting pitchers. You can have four of them maybe of Corbin, Kershaw, Castillo, Nola,

Right? Like, that's where you might be able to really, Blake Snell or Chris Sale, you might be able to dominate there. That's a good point. That's a good point. And I should have clarified. I don't necessarily mean paying $60 for each of the top four picks.

I'm saying, look at where your dollars are going to make the biggest impact. It might be with the Trouter Acuna. But this year, I mean, the case I keep making over and over again is that the highest impact players are the high-end starting pitchers. So maybe that's where you devote your auction dollars instead,

Just understand that you may have to be, pay more for them than what they're projected to go for. Yeah, yeah. But that's because they're irreplaceable. And so, like, if you want to give your team a higher potential baseline, you know, trust yourself to find those breakout picks later, especially among hitters. Sean Black says, I know you mentioned Marcel O'Zuna having a good year, but I think he may have a great year due to him hitting behind three hitters in the overall top 50. How does this improve his potential, Marcelo Zuna on the Braves? He may have a great year. He may be a top 15 outfielder.

Lineups matter. They matter. That's the overall point here, right? Accounting stats, it helps. Yeah, although last year we published a piece from Alex Chamberlain on CBSSports.com that basically looked at the impact of the lineup around a player and I think he found something like 85 to 90% of a player's production in terms of runs in RBI

is explained by their personal production and then their spot in the lineup rather than the guys hitting in front and behind. Which makes sense, but that still leaves 10% to 20% that don't. And when you're talking about runs in RBI, which can number in over 100, that's a significant, that seems like a significant finding to me. rather than one to dismiss.

This next email is from John. He says, Dear, Davis, Bryant, Sale, and Carter. Chris's? Chris's. This is a keeper question. Yeah. Disguised as a rankings question.

At the same keeper cost, I'm choosing between three of the following four players. Who is the odd man out? Brandon Woodruff, Zach Gallen, Frankie Montas, and Kyle Tucker. Who do you cut?

I guess it's got to be Tucker, based on rankings. He's going well behind all of them, but if he had a job, if he for sure had an everyday job, I think I would put back Woodruff. I know based on ADP and maybe based on other people's rankings,

that might seem nuts, but I just, I think Zach Allen and Frankie Motus are better pitchers, and I think Kyle Tucker has more upside. And one thing that we haven't talked about with Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers lost arguably the best pitchframer in baseball last year. And he's a pitcher who doesn't necessarily have multiple putaway pitchers.

He kind of has his fastball and that's it. That could make a sizable impact. Interesting. I would want to know the keeper parameters. If it's just four players, you pick your best four players to keep every year and there's no cost associated with it or whatever. I think Tucker's easy to put back because there's a high amount of keeper turnover in this league.

But if it's more of a keep forever scenario, even though Woodruff is my highest ranked player of these four, for 2020, he's probably my lowest in a keep forever scenario. This is from Michael Kedor. I'm sitting on Josh Hader as my only closer in my slow draft. I'm heading into round 16. I'm considering grabbing the whole back-end, of the raised bullpen and counting on those ratios. Tell me I'm an idiot moron.

I mean, part of the problem is you only have so many roster spots. In a world where you had unlimited roster spots, I think there's value in that because those guys are all probably, you know, Jose Alvarado and Nick Anderson primarily are, they're going to be really good. But you're using roster spots on them and lineup spots that could go to guys who could have more impact. I mean, I'm fine with it as long as you are willing to play the waiver wire and pick up closers as they come. I don't think this

is the lineup that you end your season with. But I think that like kind of sort of punting saves on draft day and just knowing you're going to, like as long as you have Hader and the raise, you're going to have some saves and then you just play the waiver

wire and you're not punting, right? You're just not really making it a huge priority. I think you can get away with that. But beyond just roster spots, that's Four lineup spots, right? I'm assuming he's talking about three raised relievers, Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and Diego Castillo, who aren't really... I don't know.

I don't know that those latter two are so bankable in ratios. And even if they were, you're sacrificing not just saves, but you're sacrificing strikeouts and wins. And that seems like a low upside pitching staff to me. It has to be a daily format where you could... and throw those guys in when your starters aren't going, that kind of thing. You know, I could see you having middle relievers there. But, yeah, I guess the long story short, it doesn't seem like a great strategy.

Here's from Rosendo. Mike Estremski or David Dahl. Dahl. From Alan. First year playing fantasy baseball. Any tips for keeping up with a daily league? Amphetamines. If you're worried about this, a daily league is probably not for you.

I've played daily leagues before. I don't enjoy it. And what inevitably ends up happening is on Monday when I'm setting my lineups for all my many weekly leagues. I just go through each individual day, look at how the probable pitchers line up, and go ahead and set each day for the entire week ahead. Do not listen to Scott. This is a terrible answer. I am cutting Scott off and here's why. You are a first-time fantasy baseball player.

You do not play in as many leagues as Scott White, I promise you. You will have plenty of time. It's not that hard. I was a little hesitant to get into daily leagues. I like them just fine. But you should listen to Scott in that. It's a great idea to set your lineup for the week on Monday, just in case you forget one day,

but you should look every day to reset your lineup. As far as tips in terms of adding and dropping players, you got to be on top of the box scores. You've got to listen to the podcast. podcast. We're going to help you every single day. Our shows will come out earlier in the morning during the season, by the way. But looking at like roster trends pages is really helpful. See who the other people that are playing fantasy baseball are looking at.

And that's a good way to do it. Don't be intimidated by it. It is tough when you have a bunch of leagues. It is. If you're just doing one or two, I promise you can handle it. All right. Let me read one more email here. From Mason.

Nelson Cruz is one. again going many rounds later than his production suggests. I've drafted him in the past four seasons, and Cruz has been a steal every time. What's an appropriate round to draft Nelson Cruz so I don't miss out? In a 12-team league, his average draft spot is seven. It's like the middle of round seven. And I don't know that I'd want to pass up on what's still available in round six

to reach for him any earlier than that. I think I would just trust he's there in round seven. If you really want to gamble, he might be there as late as round nine. I mean, but you look at some of the guys going in the sixth round range and I, like, you wouldn't rather have Nelson Cruz than Elohimenez or Matt Olson or Ehuyahuehanyos Juarez or Vlad Guerrero? You're picking some of the worst of the, there's usually somebody I want in round six. But those are the guys, those are the hitters being drafted in round sixth on average right now.

Paul Goldschmidt, DJ LeMayhew, Vladimir Guerrero, Elohimenez, Matt Olson, Aeohenio Suarez. Do any of those guys have more upside than Nelson Cruz? Not even close. Nelson Cruz has first round upside. That's what he was. He was a first round caliber hitter last year. He won't be that good.

He had his best year ever. If you look at the past six years, he has 41 home runs. Is he significantly riskier than any of those guys? Yes. Is he? I think, well, I don't know about all of them, but I think last year he missed time. the year before he played through injury. So it does sort of seem like

it might happen. Okay, but let's go through them. Paul Goldschmidt's old, not as old as Nelson Cruz, but he's been healthy. DJ Lemayhew has the one good year. Vladimir Guerrero Vladimir Guerrero

struggled with injuries each of the last two seasons in addition to never having performed at this level. Instead of doing this, why don't you tell us the answer that you think? Because I think he is riskier.

Do you think he's riskier? No. Okay, good. Moving on. Let's do some... Fifth or six round. Let's do some regulations. If you have a question, a commish question, a league dispute, you send it in to fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. You put fantasy regulators in the subject line. This is from Connor Jock Peterson. I am starting up at Dynasty League this year with some of my buddies. We've been having trouble settling on a draft format. I find that Dynasty is the easiest and most fun to manage with salaries.

and contracts, which makes an auction draft the most suitable option. Several of the league members have expressed their concerns, parentheses whining, about the length of time it would take to finish an auction with 25 plus roster spots. The proposed alternative is to do a snake draft with a predetermined auction values to eliminate the timely bidding process. Do you think this is a legitimate option, or should I just tell them to suck it up because it's only one day a year? The draft is the best part of the season.

It's a long option, though. It's the most fun. It's going to take a while. Oh, no, I have to spend time with my friends. If you're not all about, I don't know that this is a good first sign for the health of this league if they're complaining about how long they might have to devote to auctioning the initial rosters.

But you don't want to drag them kicking and screaming. If this is the best you have to work with, then I think the alternative, proposal is I don't like the predetermined auction values to to tie to a draft. What if you do what we do in our Memorial Magazine, Roto League, you auction

the starters and then you do a seven-round bench snake draft and you can do make those guys be a dollar or whatever the heck you want. But what if you auction most of the league and then finish with a snake draft? I mean, that could save you like an hour and a half. Could do that, right? Great, do it.

From Cole. I'm in a 12-team Dynasty League where you can keep up to 20 players from a 30-player roster. One owner traded Gavin Luxe and a 20-20th third round pick for Nick Senzel. Our keeper deadline was January 1st, and the owner who traded for Senzel,

uh-oh, early, forgot to mark him as a keeper. So he trades for Senzel. He forgets to mark him as a keeper. So now Senzel is eligible to be drafted. Should the commissioner have made it right by putting Senzel back on that guy's roster? Or was he correct in showing tough love and leaving Senzel in the draft? Commissioner needs to put a back.

Yeah, I think, I mean, if you didn't have this rule, then it's leave it. But in the league where I'm a commissioner and it's a dynasty league, if you make an off-season trade, it doesn't matter what happens when the trade happened you have to keep those players who were traded for that's the rule I have if you don't have that rule

you know Dylan sees and the fifth overall pick for Nick Senzel sounds like a pretty good trade to me yeah that was the second part no you put Senzel back on if he really wanted to keep him and he forgot the deadline you put Senzel back on his roster come on

you're going to make a mistake at some point too and how would you want somebody to respond to that it was an obvious mistake day. I never make mistakes. It's been regulated. This doesn't have to be, yeah, this isn't, the punishment doesn't fit the crime. From Andy, 14-team Dynasty Roto League, I'm in, has recently discussed implementing daily standard fab.

The specific detail we are arguing over is whether or not players should be immediately addable slash dropable for free after the waiver fab claims have been processed each day at 3 a.m. No. Hey, one side argues that saying, yes, maximizes lineup optimization

and you can replace players who are a last minute scratch or take advantage of streaming catchers, etc. It's basically like what fantasy football leagues do. The other side argues that saying, no, minimizes league parity and keeps managers from having an unfair advantage

because they have push notifications for Twitter, blah blah blah what do you think the question is we're thinking about implementing daily fab should players become free agents

after fab runs and I don't I don't understand how do you have daily fab do you just have certain hours during the day? Yeah that's silly or the dropped players

are the only ones that go through the fab process as opposed to the ones that are just sitting out there that's silly um yeah I I don't like turning fantasy baseball

just into a game of who can sit at the computer the longest and has the most time to sit there clicking. And for a league with daily lineups, that sounds like what a free ad-drop environment would do. So no, make it bad. Andy also says, Baez, Felicia, which is very funny. Last regulators.

From Steve. Dear Will, McKenzie and Charlie. Is that like the newsroom? I have no idea. Can you Google it? No, it's, no, I don't know what it is. Last season, I was asked to take over a team in an 18-team league. It was the first year of this league, and the previous owner had drafted thinking it was going to be a keeper.

I like that. It just don't make you. It cracks me up. The previous owner had drafted thinking it was going to be a keeper league, and he drafted all prospects, including Vlad and Eloy. However, it was not going to be a Keeper League until the next year when they established that all players would return, as this was a Reddit League. The commissioner wanted to make sure that they had the same owners

and that everyone played before establishing keepers. I said that I would play, but I didn't want to pay the league entry fee for an 18-team league that I didn't get to draft and was literally unable to compete with how little talent was on it. The commissioner said that if I play and paid the entry, I could keep one of my players for next year. So basically,

I give up on that year and still pay, but I have an advantage going into 2020 when we start keepers, or 2021, I guess, when we start keepers. I agree, and I paid the commissioner, and I paid, and the commissioner won the league. Now the league is getting set up again, and the commissioner told me that he can't give me the keeper,

he promised me because, oh, it was going into 2020, sorry. That he can't give me the keeper, he promised me, because, quote, it would give me an advantage over everyone else, end quote, which was literally the point of the agreement. he told me I could pay to play again or leave the league I feel like I've been cheated out of my entry yeah this is garbage

yeah there's got to be another side of the story Steve I'd love to hear from the commissioner of this league who clearly lied to you but if there's no other side characters from the newsroom by the way and not good

not a good show maybe my least favorite television show of all time just likes more TV shows than he likes It is so, it's so bad. I've never seen it. I can't say one way or the other. I've never seen it either. And I guess I won't because I trust Chris, even though, you know, I had like an indie music jam session with Heath on a drive back from.

Yeah, he was telling me about that. Yeah, yeah. Who was that guy I liked? Sturgle Simpson. I like his album. Well, I don't like his country stuff, but this was like a rock album. It was pretty good. And Wilco I enjoyed

I enjoyed Wilco, but they're Wimps and I can't listen to them for more than five minutes. Yeah, but they're wimps. You need a real band like Aerosman. Okay. Thanks for listening, everybody. Back tomorrow with starting pitcher part one. See ya.