Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨 Shohei Ohtani Signs With The Dodgers For 10 Years, $700 Million! - Emergency Podcast (12/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 9, 2023

Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a record-breaking 10 years, $700 million (2:20)! ... What do the financials mean for the Dodgers outlook (6:30)? ... We'll be watching closely for Ohtani's rehab from elbow surgery (10:18). ... What's the early ADP for Ohtani, Betts and Freeman (15:20)? ... How long will Ohtani hit AND pitch in his career (23:20)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Sound the alarms, the biggest free agent in baseball history, and perhaps the most talented player we have ever seen. Shohei Otani has agreed to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Welcome in to a very special emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Saturday. December 10th, I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White, and it has finally happened. Through all of the hoopla, Scott, Toronto Flight Gate,

Shohei Otani winds up where we all thought the Los Angeles Dodgers. for 10 years, not 500 million, not 600 million, 700 million. $700 million. John Heyman has pointed out the deal includes unprecedented deferrals, which means, yes, the Dodgers could presumably continue to add other pieces this off season, the biggest contract in sports history, Scott. Not, I saw North American sports, okay, we knew that.

This is bigger than any money, any athlete has ever got, even like Lionel Messi when he signed with like, Barcelona. It's crazy stuff and it dwarfs the previous record setting deal for Mike Trout, $426 million on his extension. Just absolutely crazy stuff. We kind of figured this all along, Scott, but give me your immediate reaction, Shoya Otani, joining the already amazing Los Angeles Dodgers. Well, we figured what all along? The money? No, no, no, not the money. The Dodgers. Not the money. Because, yeah, we haven't seen a $500 million man in baseball, 600 million dollar man of baseball,

but now we have a $700 million man. And I saw John Heyman also tweeted, word from one of the Otani finalists. We certainly were not at $699. So I, and you know, it was, the dominant baseball story that took Twitter by storm on Friday was the reports. I guess there were some actual reporters saying that,

that Otani had come to an agreement with these guys, with the Blue Jays. But that was squashed by the end of the day. We were all following, we were all looking for updates on Twitter all day long thinking, okay, this is it, he's going to the Blue Jays. So you wonder if the Dodgers swooped in at the last minute and considerably up to their offer.

Yeah, it's, I guess I should, I guess we'll get into the actual like, statistical on the field angle first here. There's a lot more that can be said about this deal. Yeah, Dodgers. I mean, if we were ranking the destinations for Otani going into the offseason, what would be best for his fantasy value? Dodgers would have been pretty close to the top of the list, right?

Among the realistic options, they may have been at the very top of the list. So Otani was already in a favorable venue for home run, Stack Cast Rates, Angel Stadium, the fifth best over the last three years for home run. Dodger Stadium, it ranks number two. Number two. And, you know, expected home runs. We'll do this thing again. Otani actually hit 44 home runs last year.

Dodger Stadium, it would have been 45. So, you know, it's, I don't know that the venue really mattered that much. You know, Toronto not such a great place for home run hitters batting left-handed. So, you know, maybe that would have seemed like a worst destination for Otani. But we're talking about a guy who delivers 99th percentile exit velocity. and I just don't think, I just don't think the venue is going to make

that big of a difference to his fantasy value to a statistical output. But having said that, Dodger Stadium's a good place to be. Also, he is joining a lineup that already has

two Hall of Fame caliber hitters and Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. So if you thought Otani and Mike Trout was a dynamic duo, you ain't seen nothing yet. Because those three at the top of the lineup every day is,

it almost doesn't even matter who the Dodgers, who else the Dodgers put in the lineup, although they do have some pretty halfway decent hitters and Will Smith and Max Muncie, et cetera. So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see what order they put those three in, whether Otani Betts lead off or Betts Betts' bets lead off, or I kind of think Freeman should bat lead off with bets in between. split up the left handers.

I don't think that'll actually happen, but that's how I would make out the Dodgers lineup if I was making it out. I guess, you know, we'd always rather, we'd always rather the player we have get more at bats, we'd always rather him bat lead off. But if Otani's hitting third, the amount of RBI potential he has

with Betts and Freeman is maybe unlike the game has ever seen. So, yeah, I don't see how his value could improve that much from where it already was, but it's certainly not going to get worse with the Dodgers. If my math is correct, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman both each had 233 runs plus RBI this past season, which is just crazy in itself that they had the same exact number. The fact that it's as massive of a number as it is, again,

233 for Betts and Freeman, now they add Otani to that lineup, a lineup that scored the second most run scored in baseball, 906 runs scored. I think the writing is on the wall there. as you pointed out. Yeah. And this is where I'll get into the financials of it a little bit, which obviously don't have a direct impact in fantasy,

but they could have a tangential impact because, okay, we talked about the $700 million and, you know, how shocking that deal was. It's been reported that most of that money is being deferred. That Ken Rosenthal, So you mentioned the unprecedented referrals, I guess, but Ken Rosenthal said basically his entire salary, at least at present, is being deferred. So as amazing as the Dodgers lineup is and as massive as this contract is, there's not really an opportunity cost in the immediate term. you know

like this this massive signing of Otani doesn't prevent the Dodgers from going out and bolstering their roster in other ways because so much of that money is deferred which is

I think frustrating for other fan bases around the league that the Dodgers just get to keep spending but that as good as Otani's situation seems now there's a chance it could get even better

now you know probably the Dodgers pitching needs are bigger than their hitting needs, especially since Otani's unavailable to pitch for the first year of his contract, coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. But even so, there's a chance his new supporting cast as good as it is could get even better. And just to point out, look, people probably know the numbers. We know how amazing Otani is, a true unicorn. Maybe that phrase gets thrown out there a little bit too frequently in sports.

but I mean, honestly, we have never seen anything like Shohei Otani. Two-time MVP, he's won the AL MVP two of the past three seasons. Coming off career highs, by the way, continuing to get better. In batting average, 304 batting average, 1066 OPS. He had 44 homers, 20 steals in just 135 games played. So we know how amazing he is, but putting some actual numbers to it, a stat-cast freak for Otani, 94.2 average exit velocity, 19.3% barrel rate.

And again, Scott, I agree with you. It didn't matter to me whether or not, just for Otani's value, whether he went to Toronto or the Dodgers. Okay, yes, the Dodgers, he'll see more counting stats. But in terms of ballpark, it really doesn't matter because Otani, he averaged the second most home run distance, 422 feet.

So like, no ballpark is going to affect how many home runs he's going to hit. Right? Like, he's going to hit for massive power. He's going to steal bases. And presumably, look, with the lineup protection, we know the batting average in OBP is still going to be amazing as well. Right.

And as good a place to hit his Angel Stadium is he actually put up better numbers on the road. So yeah, that, that, you know, it's one of those funny things where the bigger the player is, the higher profile the player is, the more massive the news of his move is in the real world. Like obviously this is a seismic signing for real world purposes.

For fantasy, you know, the bigger it is, kind of less there is to say about it because that caliber of player when he changes teams, it's not like he's in for a role change. It's not like he's affected by venue. He's just going to wear a different uniform now,

but probably put up, probably put up the same numbers. So I think this is kind of where we have to address the other side of the coin with Otani. And I've mentioned it already, the Tommy John surgery. What's going to make the bigger difference for Otani's value than where he signs, which we now know as the Dodgers, is how his rehabilitation goes. We presume he's going to be ready for opening day because we're just looking at the timeline Bryce Harper followed last year.

And he kind of set a new record for a hitter coming back from Tommy John's surgery. And if Otani follows that same timeline, yeah, he can be back for opening day. And so that's what we think is going to happen. but no hitter had done it that soon before Harper, had made it back that quickly before Harper. So I don't know that it's fair to assume Otani Devonnelly will be ready by opening day. And also, when Harper did come back, wasn't hitting for much power for like three months.

It took a while for Bryce Harper to look like Bryce Harper again. So as much as we like this move for Otani, I think it's a good situation for him. The fact he's coming back from Tommy John surgery is not such a good situation for him. And yes, he put up amazing numbers last year the kind that would make him a consensus top five pick, even leaving out the pitching side of it,

which obviously is not going to be on the table in 20, 24. But leaving that out completely, just looking at the hitting stats, looks like a top five player. He's my number 17 player for next year because I see 17 first round caliber hitters. And then there are a couple other pitchers there. I'm not saying Otani's dead last among those 17 first round caliber hitters.

But he's on the lower end of those 17 first round caliber hitters for me because I think a better safe, not sorry approach is warranted with him coming back from this procedure. So now that he's got the contract, you know, We know the amount of money he's signed for. We know what uniform he's going to wear. We really need to be paying attention to with Otani reports of his recovery and how he looks in spring training swinging the bat.

Yeah, I agree completely. Great points you bring up about the elbow surgery that Otani already had this, you know, towards the end of the season. But everything that we've heard from his agent, which of course his agent is going to say this, Nez Belello, that Otani will be ready to hit without restrictions by opening day. Was that a bargaining chip

or something that they leaked because they wanted whatever team to think he's going to be ready? He was always going to get massive money anyway, but it does, I guess, at least it's out there. We have like some kind of speculation that he could be ready for opening day.

Also worth pointing out that Otani 29 years old when he has this surgery, Bryce Harper last offseason 30. Obviously both guys are physical freaks. I think Otani, again, he's kind of in a category of his own, so perhaps he is ready to go on opening day, but we'll be following.

closely throughout spring training to see how Otani's coming along, whether or not he's playing in spring training games, how he looks in those games, all those kind of things. Let's take a break, Scott. When we return, we'll talk about his early ADP, maybe some of the ADPs of Freeman and bets are those affected. We'll talk about all of that right after this. Welcome back into an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Shohei Otani signing with the Dodgers record setting deal, 10 years, $700 million. We haven't mentioned the ADP yet. You did mention Scott. Do you have a Otani ranked as your 17th player.

The early ADP is 15.2, according to the NFBC, going just behind Jose Ramirez, just behind Juan Soto. But again, based on your ranking, it sounds like you're not going to be pushing him up as a result of signing with the Dodgers. I wonder if some other people might if that ADP will go up. But no, that's not what I plan to do. All right. What about his teammates, his new teammates, by the way,

Again, it's one, two, and three in some order. Mookie Betz, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Otani. Just a ridiculous Dodgers lineup. Betts's ADP is 5.5. Freddie Freeman, his ADP is 9. I already mentioned the runs plus RBI for each of those gentlemen this past season. 233. Could it get better? Yeah, presumably it could actually get better.

But I just don't know. I mean, when you're talking about ADP this early, Scott, obviously already first round picks, it's how high can we possibly move these guys? Do you think either Betts or Freeman will move up? Well, I had them both higher than the early ADP. So maybe everyone will join me now and putting them, let's see, I have, that's fifth and Freeman's six.

That's higher than both are in ADP, right? Certainly Freeman is. Basically on par with bets, but a little bit higher. I thought maybe people were already underestimating the impact of the runs in RBI for those two. and now maybe they're going to think twice about it with Otani added to the mix. But there's not really a lot of room for me to move them up personally.

I could be tempted maybe to push them ahead of Corbyn Carroll, who's my number four, and has, you know, maybe not quite the power potential of some of the others, most of the other first rounders.

A little short, not like he's a bad power source. But I'm probably not going to because I like those four at the top that give you a massive stolen base contribution while still being dominant in the other categories. Corby Carroll's one of them, the other three being Ronald de Cunia, of course, Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez.

So I think I'm pretty set with those four at the top, at least in Roto leagues, and then Bet's 5, Freeman 6. Now, you're talking points leagues. Betts and Freeman are two and three for me behind just a Cooney. But again, that was always the case. It's not like I'm moving them up based on this news. Let me ask you about one other guy we haven't mentioned yet, and that is catcher Will Smith, who is projected to back cleanup as of now.

Again, the Dodgers could add more pieces this offseason. We're not entirely sure. But if that remains the case, the counting stats could be awesome for Will Smith as well, which again, we're not used to seeing big counting stats out of catchers, but the early ADP for Will Smith, 84.2 as the third catcher off the board. Just to give some perspective, J.T. Real Muto going about 14 spots higher at Pick 70. Adley Ruchman going 34 picks higher around pick 50, 51. So quite a bit of a difference there.

Do you think maybe Will Smith is someone that could be on the rise? I don't think he should be. I mean, yeah, I guess his RBI, his potential RBI contributions have been. improved here. I think we know who he is as a hitter though, which is, you know, 260 hitting 25 homer type. And, you know, he's he's nearing 30 now. So he's pretty much established who he is, I would say. But really the biggest issue for Will Smith and actually the fact that Otani's coming reinforces this is an issue.

It doesn't play enough. Doesn't play enough. Only started 106 games behind the plate this past year. looks like he missed a little bit of time in April, which brought that number down. But he sat a lot. He sat a lot. And two years ago, 2022,

I think we saw him play more consistently than DH, you know, coming to the NL full time. He was able to DH some. But then they brought in J.D. Martinez in 2023. So that kind of knocked DH out as an option for Will Smith. And now they're bringing in Otani. So obviously, D.H is off the table again. And I think relative to some other catchers, Smith's not going to have the playing time to warrant drafting in that same range.

Yeah, and we had this question here in the YouTube chat from Victor Garcia, basically asking that exact thing. So I think it's a good point from Victor here asking about Will Smith not getting some of those DH opportunities because of Otani. As you mentioned, same thing happened last year with J.D. Martinez. So it's not like we're going to see more volume in terms of playing time. But my guess is, yes, the counting stats will obviously tick up a little bit here for Will Smith. I think in terms of the ADP, it's about right. He's going to be drafted as like a top three or four catcher. Actually, a little surprising that he's going ahead of William Contreras right now,

at least in terms of the early ADP, in my opinion. I saw some speculate Max Muncie maybe moving him up. He would probably bat behind Will Smith because they got to split up all those left-handers, right? I mean, unless Otani is going to lend Max Muncie some of his batting average, I don't know that it's kind of bad. I mean, yeah, theoretically his RBI potential improves too. But you get that minute, you get set. You move far enough away from that cluster of on-base freaks

and, you know, maybe some of the effect of that diminishes. But, yeah, I mean, we know Max Muncie is a major liability at this, a major batting average liability at this stage of his career. and five more RBI here, 10 more RBI. I'm not sure it makes a material difference as to where you're drafting them. All right, Scott, I have a hypothetical for you regarding Otani's ADP here.

And I brought this up on previous podcasts already. Let's say spring training rolls around no restrictions. Otani is in there. He looks like Otani. He's smacking home runs. How high can he climb in ADP? Or even in your rankings, right? because at least in terms of ADP,

if he looks like Otani in spring training, again, he's not going to pitch next year. He's only going to hit. I think the ADP can get as high as top five. With that group, I know that you constantly point out in terms of like five by five roto, Ocuna, Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, Corby and Carol.

They're kind of in a class of their own in terms of power and speed what they could provide. But if Otani looks like Otani, I think he can join that group. I think he can move inside the top five. I mean, as somebody who releases, kind of hypothetical how the first two rounds would go in drafts right now.

I can tell you that before Otani suffered the torn legament in his elbow, yeah, I valued him like a top five player. So I agree that's what... That is as high as I could justify moving him, maybe just ahead of Freeman and bets at number five there. If not only do we see the spring, okay, obviously he's going to be ready to go.

But also, as you said, he is providing the power right away so that we don't have to worry about him going through that period Harper did, Bryce Harper did, where the power wasn't really there. I might, even in that scenario, I might hesitate to move him ahead of Betts and Freeman. Like realistically for me,

the highest I might, could see myself putting Otani for this upcoming year of seventh. but it would be in that range. It would be in that five to seven range if he's like, you know, if he hits six home runs this spring or something like that. As we mentioned multiple times,

Otani coming back from elbow surgery, not going to pitch in 2024. But we know beyond that, the plan, we think, is going to be for Otani to pitch once again, starting in 2025, which will obviously help the Dodgers rotation out. This is kind of, I guess,

if you're planning long term, Scott, trying to project forward, and we don't know the answer to this. So, again, it's just kind of speculation. on our part. How long do you think he's going to do both? Like obviously in 2025 he'll get the opportunity to pitch again. We think as a starter but well at that point he's going to be what 30 years old like do you think he pitches as a starter for

you know two three four five more years? For 700 million he better do both for 10 years Frank. You think so? I do think there's a chance that the back half of that deal maybe he's a starter from like 2025 to 2029 for like four or five years and then maybe he transitions into like a closer like a kind of close again this is all speculation on my part but that's just kind of me playing it out in my head what kind of route can this go down long term? Well, I don't know that we can be completely sanguine

about his pitching prospects coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. It's it's yeah, that's a tougher hurdle to clear than the first and we think, We've seen it, we've seen the second doing some pretty good pitchers in the past. And we do have a pretty good test subject on his same team now. Walker Bueller coming back from his second Tommy John, so we'll see. Right.

I would imagine, look, he's already proven once, and it sounds like he's aiming to prove again that while he's recovering from a major arm injury, he can still hit and hit well. So I don't know that there's a lot of a team is taking on a lot of risk by having him try to pitch. And realistically, if he suffers another major arm injury, a third major arm injury, a third Tommy John surgery, certainly,

that might do him in. But I don't know, I don't know that there's any reason to voluntarily stop him from pitching in the foreseeable future. All right. Well, I guess this is a little bit more niche with like the AL, NL only leagues, but obviously he is changing leagues. So worth mentioning that as well.

You're going for every angle you can think of here. I'm trying to hit every single possible thing, Scott. So for those who play in NL only leagues, obviously you're gaining Otani. If you had Otani in an AL only Keeper League, I am sorry because obviously you won't have him anymore. Any other angles, Scott, did we miss anything, anything you'd like to add? I see there is a comment in the chat asking about like Michael Bush and Miguel Vargas. It sounds like they're going to give those guys opportunities for like corner outfield spots

or maybe even part of a trade. The Dodgers have been linked to Corbyn Burns and Willie Adomis. It sounds like they want to upgrade their shortstop. Maybe they go after like a Tyler Glass now. That wouldn't surprise me either. So your thoughts, I guess, on I guess some of the periphery pieces. Oh, I'm praying Michael Bush gets out of there.

I'm kind of down on Miguel Vargas at this point. The exit velocities were not good at either the majors or AAA. And maybe that had to do with lingering effects from that preseason injury. I don't have exit velocity data for him in the minors prior to last year. But I am, I'm bearish on him right now, so I'm not really holding my breath for him getting playing time. Obviously, they signed Max Muncie to an extension, so that takes third base off at the table. We've already heard, Muky Betts is primarily going to be a second baseman now.

So yeah, it seems like D.Hful now. It seems like left field is the only option for those guys. And I don't know that today you can count on them getting serious playing time in 2024. But yeah, a trade could change things. And certainly in Bush's case, because the guy's going to be 26 before opening day. They've already turned 26. We need to get this guy's career started for real. because his minor league production is incredible.

Yep. It will be interesting to see where the Toronto Blue Jays go from here as well. Obviously, they were a finalist and it sounds like they had a real chance to sign Shohei Otani here. So my guess is they'll pivot. What direction do they go in? Do they want to spend big money on another bat? Is it a Cody Bellinger? Try to bring back Matt Chapman.

J.D. Martinez, if they want to bring in a DH, obviously not as exciting as Shoay Otani. But we'll see where the Toronto Blue Jays go from here. Again, massive news for baseball and the entire sports world. Shohei Otani headed to the Dodgers on a 10-year, $700 million deal. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.

And we'll be back again next week, we think. Bye-bye.