Fantasy Baseball Today - Shortstop Recap & Early 2023 Rankings! (11/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 21, 2022

How does shortstop look heading into 2023 (3:05)? ... Trea Turner is as consistent as any elite hitter (4:55). ... Will Francisco Lindor be drafted too early next year (9:25)? ... Dansby Swanson has developed nicely (11:56). ... Bo Bichette needed a monster September to finish with a strong line (14:50). ... Willy Adames popped 31 homers this past season (18:27). ... Should you create a draft strategy around Corey Seager (21:06). ... Xander Bogaerts had a power outage this past season (25:05). ... Amed Rosario was a very useful player in 2022 (28:42). ... Jeremy Peña had a magical rookie season while Carlos Correa was solid (31:25). ... Fernando Tatis Jr. is the biggest wild card in 2023 (42:02). ... Tim Anderson has had a tough time staying healthy (47:45). ... What do we do with Oneil Cruz and Wander Franco (51:05).  Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Finally, we've made it back to a great position, shortstop. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Monday, November 21st.

And welcome to Thanksgiving Week. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by the one. the only Scott White. How's it going, Scottie? It's going great. It's going. I can't complain. It's Thanksgiving week.

I'm a big fan of Thanksgiving. As I assume many people are coming up in a couple of days. Do you have any fun traditions or anything that you do in particular with your family? Uh, hmm. Nothing that I think would impress anybody. Just the normal Thanksgiving stuff. What about you? I do watch just friends every year.

That is something that I don't know how it's become a tradition, but it's kind of the kickoff of the Christmas season. You know, we watch the parade in the morning, eat dinner, dessert, drink a little bit, watch some football. And then we always, it's going on for like five years now. We end the night with just friends. It's great. A comedic masterpiece, I must add. I like it. It's great.

I enjoy it. It's been a few years since I've seen it, but it's disarmingly good. So I can endorse. that one, Frank, for you. I'm not going to make fun of you for just friends. Well, Scott, I am inviting you. Once you put the kids to bed, turn on just friends late at night and join me in watching it on Thanksgiving. Anyway, today on the show, we are going to talk about short stops. We've got a recap, take a look at the top 10 from this past season, and then, of course, we will get into Scott's early 2023 rankings. And Scott, obviously, I mentioned up top, shortstop, great position, much better

than second and third base. I would say it rivals first base. I would probably even argue that shortstop is better than first base. Would you agree with those statements? It's better for a while than it gets worse. Yeah. If we're talking to 15-team context, which usually I'm trying to downplay the 15-team angle, but if that's the format we're talking about 15-team's standard rotos,

Everybody has a middle infield spot to fill. It drops off a cliff before that draft is over. But I think if you're talking like a 12 team head to head leg, then that's not anything you have to worry about because there's enough depth to get you that far and beyond in that format. First base, on the other hand, it almost never runs out of players who are at least usable, you know. So it just kind of depends on what,

format you're talking about, which is deeper. No, I think that's a really good way to put it. And looking at early ADP, things are going to change. There's only been 18 NFBC draft so far. You see these big tier drops so far where after the fifth shortstop, I'm not going to reveal who they are because, you know, save that for later on. But after the fifth shortstop, he's going at pick 32. There's a jump down to 73.

So 40 spots in value. After the 12th shortstop going at pick 84, we see the next one at 102. 20 spot drop. After 16, pick 124, you see it dropped down to 151. Things are going to change, but it's very clear to me that there are big drop-offs, big tier drop-offs at the shortstop position. And we'll get into that a little bit later on, but let's recap the position once again. And we'll start with the number one shortstop. No surprise here. Trey Turner, who finished sixth overall in Roto this past season, has not finished lower than sixth overall each of the past three seasons. 3.4 fantasy points per game that led the position and he was basically the top player

drafted last year so he paid off 298 batting average 21 homers 100 and 1 runs 100 rbi 27 seals 5 category contributor as consistent as they come scott has hit 298 or better four seasons in a row for Trey turner I guess the only thing you can knock on him is the power has taken a little bit of a step back each of the past three years you see it in the slug you see it in the slug you see getting the home run to fly ball ratio. I would say he's probably more of a 20-ish home-run hitter now in this environment, but it also comes with a great batting average and loads of steals. So no issues here.

Well, I don't know that that's the only thing I would say against Trey Turner. The stolen bases, I think, even more notable the way they've declined in it since, well, obviously you have the 2020 season in there, which is very short. but we'll just skip over that beginning, 2018 through 2022, skipping over 2020. He's gone from 43 steals to 35 to 32 to 27 this past year, and it wasn't an issue of him missing time with injury. He played 160 games in 2022 and stole just 27 bases. So he's not, look, he's a good source of stolen bases

and better than a lot of what you'll find at any stage of the draft, but he's not as big of a standout as he once was. has been a continuing trend for trade turner i i feel like his category where he stands out the most is actually batting average and 298 what he hit in 2022 is is on the lower end of what trade turners normally been doing uh led the majors with the 328 batting average in 2021 so uh definitely going to help you there and we'll help you in steals but just he isn't going to set you apart as much as maybe you associate him with. And then the other issue for Trey Turner is we don't know where he's going to be.

We don't even know what team he's going to play for. And so a big part of his value was the 100 RBI, the 101 run scored by playing in a ridiculous Dodgers lineup. Trey Turner reached base at only a 3.43 clip. So he hits well, but he doesn't have a lot of natural on-base skills. And if he's not in such a stud, a star-studded lineup, his totals in those two categories are going to suffer too. So I think he is safe. He is certainly a first-rounder. But we were talking about third baseman last week.

We're looking at third base. And I talked about how Jose Ramirez is in the discussion for number one. I'd have him number two behind just Aaron Judge. and the reason Trey Turner is behind both of those two for me is because I don't think the upside is quite the same and he doesn't have position scarcity going for him. He's the one of those three who plays in a deep position. Now, he's probably going to be the only shortstop to go in round one

at least in a 12-team league, but there are enough in the rounds that follow enough high-end types that I don't think you're coming out ahead by taking Trey Turner and filling that shortstop spot so soon. It's a fair point that you bring up. The steals obviously have been declining each of the past four years, as you pointed out. But I do wonder if maybe going to another team could see his steel spike back up a little bit. He's still really fast, 99th percentile in sprint speed.

He was hitting third in the lineup, second third in the lineup for the Dodgers the past couple of years. So I wonder if that has maybe stifled his ability to steal bases the past couple of years. But that's just maybe. It could. You're right. I mean, there are a lot of reasons why certain players could see their steals totals improve next year. But I imagine just because the Dodgers are so efficient at scoring runs, that lineup was just a run-generating machine. There wasn't much incentive to run, even for somebody's fastest Trey Turner.

And I know Freddie Freeman set a career high and stolen bases with them, but that that seemed kind of fluky. You look at the way Mookie Betts, steals have gone down since joining the Dodgers. It's just not a big part of the team strategy. All right, let's move on to number two. Francisco Lindor, who finished 12th overall in Roto, 3.2 fantasy points per game. That was second at the position. His ADP was 54.4 before the season,

so quite a bit of value. Nice profit here on Francisco Lindor. He hit 270 with 26 home runs, 98 runs, 107 RBI, 16 steals. Scott, you know I loved Lindor last season. Now the ADP is back up a little bit. I'm not so sure. And this is a funny game that we play

because I like, you know, I'll buy the dip, but now everyone else is back in. Maybe not everybody. But, you know, if he's a second or third round pick, I don't know that I saw enough this year in the underlying numbers that gives me confidence to use a second or third round pick on Francisco Lindor. So that's where I'm at.

Well, you're saying he finished second, right? He did. Nobody's going to draft him second at shortstop. For me, he's fifth. he's fifth for next year. He's fifth in 80P right now too, so yeah, I guess you're right. Yeah. Yeah.

So yes, because of the quality of the four players ahead of him, that probably means a third round pick for Lindor, maybe fourth round. But, you know, that's where he deserves to go at the position. Now, are there good enough options to follow that maybe you don't need to be drafting him there? I would say so. We're talking about how deep it is. How confident are we that Francisco Lendor is going to outproduce Danes B. Swanson, for instance, they both have similar drawbacks in terms of batting average,

probably looking at like a 260, 270 mark for each of them. Similar power projections, speed projections. Swanson maybe projects for a few more steals. So, yeah, I think in that round three, three to four range. I'm more looking to fill third base if I haven't already with Aeronado specifically. He's the one he'd be taking at that point. Or second base, Marcus Simeon, Jose Altuve, Ozzy Albi Zivan.

It's just an unfortunate point in the draft. It's not because I, you know, last year I was pretty down on Lindor coming into 2022. I was pretty down on him. I'm not there anymore, but he's going to go at a point. draft where I just feel like there are more urgent needs. All right. Let's move on to a name that you mentioned already.

Dan Svichwanson finished just behind Francisco Lindor. 13th overall in Roto, 2.9 at fantasy points per game. That was tied for seventh at the position. And he was one of the most valuable hitters in fantasy this past year in terms of what he, the value he provided, where he was drafted. His ADP was 122.8. Again, he finishes a 13th overall player. 277 batting average, 25 homers, 99 runs,

96 RBI, 18 steals, actually oddly really, really similar to Francisco Lintore, which you mentioned. The runs, the RBI, the steals, all career highs for Dan Svonson in a contract year. He's now a free agent, so we'll have to see where he winds up. How did he do it?

Career high, average exit velocity, 90.2 miles per hour, career high, hard hit rate. The Bavib spiked up to 3.46, but we've actually seen that before. It happened in the short in 2020, so you don't want to put too much stock into it. I think we probably see a little bit of regression in the batting average department, Scott, but this is a really fun and valuable player.

It'll be interesting to see where Danesby Swanson winds up. Yeah, I said 260, 270 when I was talking about him in Lador. Swanson actually hit 277, so it was closer to 280. But I agree that it's probably more like that initial range that I pointed out. Not a great strikeout rate, 26%. so that doesn't help and you know

the power production was pretty good you mentioned highest average ex velocity of his career it was 73rd percentile but if there's any regression in that area too

I wouldn't say Danesby Swanson is a lock for 20 homers of course we'll see what ballpark he winds up in that will play a role but 25 is the second most he's ever hit in this he basically set career highs in all five rotissory categories

except for home runs and that you know I think he had a 27 homer season so 25 is pretty close to that so it'll be hard for Swanson to replicate this exact line but he's in the prime of his career he's 28 years old

and I do think he'll be I'd be totally happy with him as my starter shortstop I'd rather like he's you say he finished what just behind Lindor so what does that put him third at shortstop yeah third of leagues

he's not being drafted third. So that regression is kind of factored in. And I'd be totally happy with him as my starter. I'd rather do that than I'd rather invest in a weaker position early and settle for like a Danesby Swanson at shortstop. Because I don't feel like it's settling that badly. For what it's worth, he has been much better in Atlanta versus other Paul parks in his career. 773 OPS at home, 704 OPS on the road. So we will see where he winds up and hopefully it's a good ballpark. Bo Bichette used a late season charge to finish 23rd overall in Roto, three fantasy points per game.

That was tied for fifth at the position. His ADP entry this year was five on the dot. He was a mid-first round pick, so obviously did take a little bit of a step back. He hit 290, 24 homers, 91 runs, 93 RBI, 13 steals, 8 caught stealing. So kind of curious to see where Bichette goes next year in terms of running now. Does he have the green light or do they maybe hold them? up a little bit. Everybody has the green life next year, Frank. Come on. I hope so. I hope you're right. You know, looking into what changed this year, Scott, there wasn't really much that stood out for me.

I mean, the strikeout rate jumped a little bit. The home run to flyball rate dropped a little bit, but he still hit the ball extremely hard, especially for a shortstop. Maybe it's tied to the Humidor in Toronto. I know you mentioned that last week on our third base recap. 755 OPS at home this past season for Boba Chet, 844 on the road. Maybe that's it. There's nothing else really in the numbers that really explain why Bobuchette took this step back. Well, the most curious part for me is, yeah, the final numbers ended up being pretty

great still, two 90 batting average 24 homers, more than 90 runs in RBI, 13 steals, not exactly what we're hoping for when we took them in round one, but elite production. but it took a ridiculous month of September for him to get to that. He entered September batting 260 with a 725 OPS. Before that one month, Bo Bichet hit 406, seven homers, four steals. And that really saved his season. So, you know, if your league has playoffs early, if you just tuned out because football was starting

and you thought you were out of the race in your league or whatever, you tuned out in mid-August, you missed all of that. And there's a good chance you did if you drafted Bo Bichette in round one, right? Like, there's a good chance he more or less ruined your season, even if the final numbers ended up pretty good. So I don't know what kind of effect that's going to have on his draft stock. Well, based on the very early ADP results, not much.

It's like people just look at the overall line. Oh, Boba Schett's great. It's not a first rounder, at least not a consensus first rounder anymore, but he's not far off. And was it just the fluky way things played out? Was it just the ebb and flow of the season happened to go that way, where it was ridiculously backloaded and there's nothing more to look into there? Yeah, I mean, maybe, probably,

because we were scratching our head about both. Bichette's production all year until that September. But I'm going to be reluctant to make a big investment in him. And again, what I've already been saying about Francisco Lindor and others, like, this is probably not a position I'm going to fill this early anyway. And I kind of wish he didn't have that Monster September, Scott, because if he didn't, I think he would probably be going closer to where Lindor is going. Middle, third round, something like that.

But again, Monster, Monster September gets. Bobeshit back in the second round as a draft pick this upcoming season. Next up we have Bobby Witt Jr. and Tommy Edmund, but we spoke about both of those on the third base and second base podcast respectively. So you can listen back to those to find out more. Willie Adomis is next up. He finished 48th overall in Roto. Three fantasy points per game tied for fifth at the position.

And his ADP was 145.4. So jumps 100 spots in value. He was the 19 shortstop off the board. so a big payday if you drafted Willie Adomas. Lower batting average, but he absolutely came through. 238 batting average, 31 homers, 83 runs, 98 RBI, eight steals, leaned a little bit more into the launch angle this past year, Scott, which I think contributed to the lower batting average,

but hits the ball hard and hits it in the air. Career high, 13% barrel rate, that was second best at the position. And, you know, as I mentioned on the third base podcast, only 23 batters with 30 plus homers last year, only two came from shortstop, Willie Adomis and Corey Seeger. This is a valuable player. Yeah, and I think that that's something

that won't immediately register with people. They'll see, oh, Willie Adomis at 238 with 31 homers. That's disappointing. I wanted more from him, you know, because you're just programmed to view that stat line that way during an era when home runs were so plentiful, but they're not anymore. That was the second most home runs of any shortstop last year.

I myself, even knowing that, I'm surprised he finished as high as fifth at the position. I think some down years for other short stops contributed to that as well as some time lost injury for them. Willie Adomas played 139 games. He stayed mostly healthy, so that helped. He's my 14th ranked shortstop going into next year. And it's not because I think is going to decline. It's just because there are 13 other short stops I like more. So that goes to show the depth of the position

if the fifth best player at the position last year, Willie Adomis is only checking in 14th for me. And because I'm not basing that on any expectation of regression, well, I guess that means I'd be pretty happy to draft my 14th shortstop as my start. at the position. And I actually did exactly that in our first mock of the year a couple weeks ago. And I'd be totally fine with this guy.

I mean, Willie Adamas, you know, he has to, I guess, fit a specific team from a Categories League perspective. You know, you've got to have some batting average bolts up there. But if you're lacking power, especially from the middle infield spot, yeah, sure, let's go for Willie Adamas. And speaking of power at shortstop, Corey Seeger finished 59th overall. and Roto 3.1 fantasy points per game. That was tied for third at the position.

His ADP last year, 64.2. I guess before this season. I shouldn't say last year. It's still the same year. But he basically paid off where you drafted him. Corey Seeger did. His first season in Texas was a productive one. He hit 245.

Career high, 33 homers, 91 runs, 83 RBI. And his season actually could have been much better, Scott. He hit 245. His expected batting average was 283. He slugged 455. His ex-slug was 5-10. I don't really do this for specific players, and I'm still kind of forming my general strategy for next season.

But I think Corey Seeger might be the main part of my draft strategy for next year, just kind of building it around getting Corey Seeger in the fifth or sixth round, because he is a player that I think can provide first or second round value if he can hit those expected numbers. Yeah, we've all been pretty bullish on Corey Seeger over the years, and it sounds like I'm going to be making apologies for him again, but you note the 40-point difference between his batting average and expected batting average. And I talked about this especially when we reviewed first base,

how I feel like kind of a shorthand way to figure out which left-handed hitters are going to benefit from the so-called shift ban that's taking effect in 2023s to look at that difference between expected batting average and batting average. Well, there aren't many players in the whole entire league with a bigger difference than Corey Seeger, who yes, is a left-handed hitter. And when you look at his batting average against the shift last year, okay?

I'm going to go back to his first full season, 2016 and Redoth the batting averages for Corey Seeger against the shift okay ready 343, 361, 333, 305, 313, 3144, 242 He was one of the players who suffered the most against the shift last year and he doesn't have a history of doing that clearly

but it did affect him in in 2022, it was weird to see him hit for such a low average. Like that was never a part of, that was never lacking in Corey Seeger's game. And then you see the difference in the XBA and actual BA. You note that that shift is going away or at least won't be as extreme next year.

And I could see him bouncing back in a big way in batting average. And meanwhile, we saw him put together the big power season with the 33 home runs. So he did take that step, and there are other changes that are coming that are going to help him put it all together finally, where he gets the average and the power together. And hopefully the actual stats finally line up with the expected stats. And yeah, Corey Seeger does give you a second round type production.

So I'm not going that far to say I'm building my draft strategy around. him, but it's another year where particularly at his cost, I would be very happy to draft Corey Seeger. And I actually have him as my number six shortstop for next year. The vibes. The vibes are strong, Scott, with Corey Seeger. Last year, it was Lindor. That was the guy. I'm feeling it. I'm feeling it with Corey Seeger. But hopefully no one else is listening to this podcast. And they wind up feeling the same way as me. It's November. Yeah. They're making Thanksgiving dinner. That's true. Listen, they're watching just friends. Yes, yes, which everyone should be doing.

Zander Bogartes is next up. He finished 64th overall in Roto, 2.9 fantasy points per game. His ADP last year was 39 and obviously took a little bit of a step back. Specifically in the power department, only 15 home runs. He still hit 307. The counting stats were lackluster because, frankly, the Red Sox were not a very good team in 2022. The slugging percentage in the ISO, both his lowest since 2017. and Scott, I got to give you credit for this one

because you looked at the players who had the middling exit velocities going into last year, and Bogarts was one of them that you identified and you were worried about the power taking a step back and that's exactly what happened. Yeah, and here's where things get interesting

at shortstop because we're going on and on about how deep it is, certainly relative to second and third base it is. But there are cracks beginning to show. You know, we've talked about, how with the juiced ball going away, the players who seem most impacted are middle infielders who historically don't have the, who don't hit the ball especially hard. They don't have a lot of natural power. They have enough power that with the juice ball, it was getting

over the fence just as often as the big power guys, but it's not, it hasn't historically been a normal part of the skill set for a middle infielder. And you see it, you saw it a lot at second base, but you see it, you saw it Summit Shortstop, too, specifically with with somebody like Zander Bogarts, who was a 33 homer guy in 2019 when the juice ball was at its juiciest and was a 15 homer guy last year. So that's a big dropout. Now, I did hit 23 homers in 2021 where we're starting to see the juice ball phased out. and maybe he could get back to that. But that feels like the upside now for Zander Bogartz, maybe 25 home runs.

And if he's in the teens again, I don't think that would be a big surprise. I don't think we should consider that 15 homer season that he just had a fluke. Now Bogart's is still like a really good hitter. Yeah. Last year was the third time in four years he hit over 300. And the one year he didn't, he had 295.

He's a career 292 hitter. So we know he's going to stand out in batting average. And there's enough power there that he could put a pretty good dent and runs in RBI as well. Not so much last year. It was kind of a down year for the Red Sox lineup as a whole Devers. He saw his runs and RBI suffer as well. But I would say that I'd still be. pretty happy with Bogarts as my starter,

but you can't count on him to be a positive contributor in home runs. He's not going to kill you in home runs, but he's not going to help you that much in all likelihood either. And he could very well be losing Fenway Park. And according to stat cast Park factors, three-year rolling average, Fenway Park is third in Park factor for right-handed batters. So if Bogartz loses that,

maybe he loses some batting average. Maybe he loses a few home runs. Depends where he goes. I've seen him linked to Phillies, and I feel like the Dodgers are linked to every shortstop right now, so we'll see, but that obviously could affect Bogart's value as well. Number eight, here is Amadeu Zario.

He finished 67th overall in Roto, 2.7 fantasy points per game. His ADP before the season was 234, so big value for Ameta Rosario. He hit 283, 11 homers, 85 runs, 71 RBI, and 18 steals. did lower his strikeout rate, about three and a half percentage points down to 16.6%. A meta Rosario has always been fast, 96 percentile in sprint speed. I kind of wish that he would run

even more than he does, Scott. He's not a standout, and I think this is also part of where you're starting to see some cracks in shortstop. I think he's just kind of settled in. 280 plus, 10 to 12 homers, 15 plus steals. He's a solid player, but he's not a standout player. Yeah, and this is also clearly where, if not for injuries, certain players would certainly rank ahead of Ahmed Rosario. I struggle with him because I don't see – like, this is not a guy that would be excited to start his shortstop. I could see why he deserves to be in somebody's starting lineup, at least in a Roto League, where you have the middle infield spot to fill. He's certainly a serviceable starter in fantasy. but he will hurt you in power.

He'll be pretty good in batting average, but not as like, you know, not Xander Bogart's good. The RBIs are going to be low because, of course, the home runs are. What could change the game for Ahmed Rosario is if the rule changes to encourage more stolen bases,

the limited pickoff throws, the increased base sizes, which did have a huge effect in the minors when those changes took effect, if Ahmed Rosario uses his speed to take advantage of that. And I could see that happening. I could see him doubling his steel total from last year. He goes from 18 to 36. His career high is only 24,

so that would be unprecedented for him. But it's, if teams are as aggressive as I expect them to be with these rule changes, If that ends up coming to pass, then I could see Rosario being one of the big beneficiaries of that. And it would completely transform his fantasy value. It would make him something like a better Tommy Edmund, you know, Tommy Edmund, but with a higher batting average. And obviously, that'd be really valuable. So I haven't ranked a lot lower than this because, again, I'm not excited about drafting him,

but I may end up regretting it when all said and done. All right, let's finish out the top 10 from this past season, and that will include Jeremy Pena and the player whom he replaced in Houston last year, Carlos Correa. So Jeremy Pena finished 103rd overall in Roto. You know, he was starting to pick up some steam towards the end of draft season. He might have been drafted in some deeper leagues very late.

If not, he was likely picked up very early on in the season, but just a special rookie season. Gold Glove, ALCS MVP, World Series MVP, and of course, a World Series ring for Jeremy Pena. He hit 2.53 with 22 homers, 11 steals, really aggressive hitter. He chases a lot, swings and misses a lot, only a 4% walk rate. But the tools are there, Scott, 68th percentile max EV, 95th percentile in sprint speed. There are a lot of underlying numbers that say you should probably not draft Jeremy

Pena as you're starting shortstop. But I don't know, Scott. There's just something about him. I'm enamored with it. I think he's going to be a player and I'm in. I like Jeremy Pena. Well, I mentioned I have Willie Adamas 14th for next year. And I'd be happy with him as my starter still even ranking him 14th.

That's kind of the cutoff for shortstops. I would be happy with as my starter and then 15 and on, not so much. Jeremy Payne is 15 So he's at the top of that group Where You know So much of his production Came early on

And I was inclined to rank him even lower because of that But then of course he had that Ridiculous postseason Where he was at both ALCS MVP and World Series MVP And it's like, okay, well I have to give this guy A little more credit I think There's going to be a lot more buzz about him going into next year he is fast

and you know it's 11 bases as a rookie very likely that doubles next year as fast as he is with those rule changes taking effect he could be a 2020 he could be a 2020 guy's got yeah

I mean if the steel's double he would and the home runs hold he would be I really don't like guys with poor plate discipline I think that that gives them a much lower floor than players with good play discipline and Payne reached base at a 289 clip as a rookie so

that's really bad. The strikeout rate isn't so bad. It's better than Danesby Swanson's for instance. But still, it gives me pause. XBA was only 248, X-SLug was only 397. Could he take a step forward and and these concerns end up, you know, they prove to be moot. Yeah, it's possible. But I don't want to be in a position where I have to bet on that, you know, especially given how many quality options there are here.

I get it, man. It's just, there's something about them. And look, I've done this before where when I see a player in person do something spectacular, I just kind of fall for that player. The last time this happened was Raphael, Devers, I think five years ago I went to Sunday night baseball and he hit a home run off of a Roldis Chapman. Now, this is before Devers was a household name. I think it was his first taste in the majors. September, late season call up, hit an opposite field home run off of

Roldus Chapman. I was at game four of the ALCS this year where Jeremy Payne destroyed a pitch off of Nestor Cortez. And I was just blown away. Like in a huge spot, their Astros are down at the time, just completely poised. I'm about. And he was batting second in the postseason. If he does that next year, it's just, man, there's just so much upside for Jeremy Pena. Last on this list, I mentioned Carlos Correa Scott, who at this point, he's fine. I think he's another player where you just kind of settle for. Maybe we're spoiled because of that, but he hit 291, 22 homers.

Counting stats weren't there. Mostly due to the Minnesota Twins, they just were missing so many players this year. The barrel rate was good. He hit the ball extremely hard, and now he's a free agent. You know, he's been linked to the Dodgers. That would be great. he's also been linked to the Cubs. That would be not so great.

What do you think about Korea? Well, I can't, it's hard to imagine him. Even if he goes to the Cubs, it's hard to imagine him having as much issues, as many issues with run production as he did with the twins. I was looking at a stat line after the season, obviously trying to formulate my rankings. I was trying to figure out why he finished so low.

I mean, he stayed relatively healthy, 136 games, for average, which he hasn't always done. the power was there like usual. But yeah, it's the fact he had 64 RBI and 70 runs in those 136 games. That's hard to do when you're as productive as Correa does. And I don't remember the twins line of being that bad. I know they weren't as good as they've been in recent years, but it's strange to me that those numbers ended up so low for Correa,

given the number of games that he played. and yeah, hopefully he might, well, I mean, first of all, that goes to show you why I'm stressing that on the other end for Trey Turner. Okay, so if going from the Astros to the twins did that for Correa, could something similar happen to Trey Turner

if he doesn't end up in the right spot? But conversely, I can only see Correa getting better. You know, I mean, even, like, this is like Brian Reynolds, stuff, you know, like the way Brian Reynolds RBI and runs suffered with the pirates. So let's... This is even worse than Brian Reynolds, Scott. Well, let's look at that because Reynolds in 145 games.

So it was nine more games. He had 62 RBI, 74 runs, very similar. Yeah. But even Brian Reynolds in 2021. I mean, the pirates weren't great then. And he had 90 and 93 RBI and runs. So like even on a, even in a bad lineup, if you're a good hitter, you can do pretty well in those categories.

So the fact that Corray didn't, I don't know, it's weird to me. I think he and Zander Bogartz are comparable because they're not going to give you like monster power. They're not going to be 30 homer guys, but they'll give you some power, and then they're not going to give you much speed the way some short stops will.

But probably a good batting average, some power, not much speed. So I see those two is similar. Between the two, I think Correa has the more upside because I could see him getting to 25 homers easier than I can see Bogarts doing that. He has more fluctuation with the batting average. He has more health issues than Bogart's. So I do rank Bogart's over Correa. But upside-wise, they're similar with maybe Correa being a little higher.

Correa is not going to run. I don't think he has a steal over the past three seasons. Maybe he has one. He just does not run anymore. He has one steal since. 2018. Yeah. So you need to ask yourself, as the, I don't know, 8 to 10 steals, maybe Bogart to give

a little bit more in this new environment, is that worth 40 spots of ADP? Because that's the difference right now. Bogartz is going 40 spots ahead of Carlos Correa. And my early inclination is, no, it's not worth it. So I'd rather just wait and take someone like Correa as a fallback option rather than Xander Bogartz a little bit earlier. Before we hit the break, I want to remind everyone that if you want to support your favorite Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

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or pull out your phone right now and scan the QR code in the top right corner of this video. Somewhere over there, if you're watching, it's right above Scott. So again, yeah, just pull out your phone, camera, take a picture of the QR code, And then that'll take you right to the website.

And we do have a very special deal for you. Use the promo code Friday between this weekend, November 25th through November 27th to receive 25% off your order. Again, the code is Friday only this weekend. November 25th through November 27, 25% off your order, whatever you want to get Fantasy Baseball Today related. Let's take a break and we'll hit Scott's early rankings here on Fantasy Baseball today. Let's jump back in and we'll look at Scott's early 2023 shortstop rankings.

Obviously, we will not focus on the players that we've already talked about, mainly on this podcast. Top five at the position includes Trey Turner, Fernando Tatees Jr., someone we have not mentioned yet, 40 minutes into the podcast. I did play. He did not play. You were correct. Bobauchette is third. Then we have Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt, Jr., who does have third base and shortstop eligibility. Again, top five, Turner, Tatis, Bichette, Lindor, D.

Bobby Witt, Jr. Let's focus on Fernando Tati, Scott. It's been a wild ride. He finishes the fifth overall player in just 130 games back in 2021. He hit 282, 42 homers, 25 steals. Massive. Looked like the number one or number two player

heading into 2022. Then what happens? He injured his wrist in a motorcycle accident last off-season. He had surgery to repair a fractured scaphoid bone. He was getting ready to return in August. What happened then? an 80 game PED suspension.

So as a result, he's on the shelf. He agrees to get his partially torn labrum in his shoulder repaired surgically in September. Okay, that's fine. I think we should feel good about that. And then in early October, a second wrist operation so that the wrist can hold up long term.

Like there was some concern that maybe his fur surgery was not going to hold up long term, which is like baffling to me. Why didn't they do it better? or like, I don't know, they should have just been more cautious with the situation. Anyway, there's a lot going on here, Scott. And the final tally is that Fernando Tatsis will miss the first 20 games of next season due to suspension,

maybe more than that, trying to rehab from all these injuries. I think he is probably the biggest wild card in fantasy baseball next year. His early 80s, 26.7 early third round pick. Yeah, and I predict that moves up. I am not one to take risks in round one. the way in FBC players in general are. I'm not one to take risk in the early rounds, I should say, not just round one.

But even I am ranking Fernando Tatis higher than 26th overall. I have him, I think about 20th. So more like the middle of round two. You know, what we went through with Ronald de Kunez last year, I think is kind of a warm up for Fernando Tatis this year. The difference is being, Okay, it's not just one surgery on the knee in a Cooney's case. A serious injury, torn ACL, but that's all he was coming back from.

Tatees has got the wrist and the shoulder. And for that matter, the PED suspension. Which for a player this young with this kind of profile, this, you know, clearly so strong and athletic. I don't put much stock in the idea that PEDs made him what he was. We don't know the whole history of how much he used and when. Obviously, we know he failed to test, and he has explanations for that that you can choose to believe or not. But I think there's probably going to be an idea among some of those drafting that,

okay, well, he's not going to be the same. Forget the injuries. He's not going to be the same because now he's not on PEDs anymore. And I just think that's unlikely. I don't think the history of players coming back from PED suspension supports that idea. So I'm not worried about that. But because he is serving that PED suspension, you're going to have to stash him on your bench rather than an IL spot for those 20 games. And then is he going to be back right after 20 games or is he still going to be rehabbing those injuries?

I don't know. I think that's very much in question at this point. So it's a lot. But at the end of the day, you're talking about a guy who was on a 50-home-or-30-steel pace when we last saw him. I mean, just ridiculous numbers, numbers that would clearly make him far and away the best player in fantasy. Even ahead of, you know, I've been a big proponent of Aaron Judge number one. If all this wasn't happening for Tatis, he would be the one. guy that I would take over judge. So to get that in round two, potentially in a best case scenario, you're getting that

kind of production from late April on, that seems worth it to me, you know? He'll be picking up outfield eligibility probably at some point soon after returning. It sounds like he's going to split his time there between there and shortstop, maybe even some second base. So, yeah, I think Tatis is still an exciting pick. despite all the concerns. No bigger wild card again. I agree with you, Scott.

When he returns, from that point forward, he can be the number one player in fantasy baseball or if he's not himself or if these injuries start to linger, if the wrist, if the shoulder acts up, I mean, he could miss a bunch of time

throughout the season, so we just don't really know. Well, and I made the Acuna comparison. Acuna ended up returning about as early as anyone could have hoped for, but he just wasn't. himself. So I don't think anybody looking back is feeling great about,

in his case, he was going late in round one by the time the season started. I don't think anybody's, anybody who did that feels like it was worth it, you know? All right. Let's move on to the top 10 short stops here. Six through 10, we have Corey Seeger, Dan v. Swanson, Zander Bogart, Tim Anderson, Mr. Anderson, and Tommy Edmund at number 10. Let's focus on Tim Anderson here, who we have not spoke about yet. He hit 301 with six homers, 50 runs scored, and 13 seals in 79 games.

The issue here, Scott, is health. Tim Anderson has had a really tough time staying healthy. Since the start of 2019, he has missed 32% of his available games. Nearly one third of the games that he is able to play, he's missed with injury. And I don't know if it's all just like one fluke thing after another. I mean, he's looking to come back from a tendon that he tore in his finger. He had surgery on it last August. I think if the White Sox were actually in it late, he would have returned, but it turned out they didn't need him because they were not competing anymore.

You know, I think if he sees healthy, he's a 2020 candidate, but he has real issues staying healthy. And I think there's a question whether he is really a 2020 candidate anymore. I've questioned his steals output in the past because, you know, technically, he's still had just one 20 steel season, never had a 30 steel season. But a lot of it has to do with injuries, and if you pace the numbers out,

you know, he would have done better in that. And with the changes happening across the league, I certainly think he's going to be a plus in steals next year is Tim Anderson. But, you know, the same thing I was saying about Zander Bogartz, applied to Tim Anderson, a guy with middling raw power, now with the landscape changing, with the juice ball gone. He played 79 games last year.

That's almost exactly half a season. He had six home runs, so that's pretty easy to pace out. It was a 12-homer pace for Tim Anderson. And I think, looking at his history, average exit velocity, only once has he been 50th percentile in average exit velocity. Last year, he was 37th percentile. that's much closer to normal for Tim Anderson. So batting average standout, steel stand out,

probably not going to be so great in home runs. So he's kind of a supercharged Tommy Edmund, who another guy we haven't talked about yet, but with all those health concerns. And yeah, I think that makes this ranking appropriate for him ninth at the position. I know I've kind of historically been the, downer on Tim Anderson and you guys have given me grief for ranking him this low, but I don't think that's going to be the case anymore. I think I'm more with the consensus

now with this ninth overall ranking at short stuff. And he is going later than he normally is. So I mean, I guess credits to the early drafters there, they're really factoring in either A, the injuries, B, the lack of power or C, both of those things at this point. So I agree with you actually. Yeah, he's probably more of a 12 to 15 home run guy. And you know, maybe he runs a little bit more, 25 steals, something like that. I think he's fast enough to do it, but, you know, we've only really seen it once back in 2018, 26 steals for Tim Anderson that season. 11 through 15 in the rankings, we have O'Neill Cruz, Carlos Correa, Wander Franco,

Willie Adamas, and Jeremy Pena. Let's start with O'Neill Cruz. A physical freak, Scott. I mean, 6'8, exit velocities everywhere, setting records. I mean, 122.4 max EV, the highest in the statcast era, 98th percentile sprint speed. This combination of power and speed, you just don't really see it every day. The problem, he strikes out a lot, 35% strikeout rate, which caused him only to hit 233. He did improve that in September.

He got it down below 30%. There's a lot of upside here, Scott, but there's also a lot of concern. The strikeouts, and specifically against left, he was, he was. been really, really bad so far. So kind of like Tatis, not to the same level, but O'Neill Cruz, I think, is one of the bigger wildcards in fantasy this year. Yeah, I would agree, and I've struggled to rank him because the upside is so high, but because this position is so deep, how hard do you want to go after that upside? How much would you rather just, okay, I'm going to get a good option here that I can trust? Like, is that the preferred way to go rather than selling out for the,

upside. And I think my ranking suggests I'm more in that camp, 11th at the position. But I do have them ahead of guys like Carlos Correa, Wander Franco, Willie Adamas, who we said finished fifth, at least in five by five leagues last year. So I don't know. Maybe I'm kind of between the two extremes where I would, at a certain point of the draft, before even all the good starters are gone at shortstop. I would be comfortable taking O'Neill Cruz and just gambling on the upside. It helps. That is very best came at the end of the season from September 1st on at 288, 6 home runs,

five steals. That's 29 games. Struck out of the 30% rate during that stretch, still really bad, but that's compared to 35% overall. And I think if you're hitting the ball as hard as O'Neill Cruz does, just harder than anybody. You can get away with the 30% strikeout rate.

This is how Aaron Judge's career started. He was striking out a 30% clip back in those days, but it didn't matter because his quality of contact was so good. I think Cruz could emulate that. And even if we take out, okay, September, you know,

it was just one month, you can't just look at that best segment, the best small segment of a hitter's sample and decide that's who he's going to be going forward. Even if you'd want to just look at, the whole, just the totality of the production for O'Neill Cruz is a rookie. 87 games, roughly half a season.

He had 233. 17 home runs, 10 steals. So just, you know, if 87 games roughly half a season, you double that, 34 home runs 20 steals. Like, it doesn't, you don't care if he's hitting 233 if he's doing that, right? Yeah. So, like, there's, he did show us a lot as a rookie. And I think he showed us enough that we shouldn't be so scared of the downside.

It's just there are so many good players at this position. Yep. As I mentioned, again, just a wild card. The range of outcomes for O'Neill Cruz is he can be a 40-30 guy. I don't think that would really surprise anyone. I think, again, based on his physical traits, he can pull that off. I also think there's a scenario where he's actively hurting your fantasy team. and, you know, he's just completely killing your batting average,

and maybe he's in and out of the lineup. I think that's within the range of outcomes. Wander Franco, another name we haven't mentioned yet, Scott, and he was derailed by injuries this past season. He was dealing with a hamstring early on, and then he had a broken hamate bone, which forced him to miss about five, six weeks in the middle of the season. He wound up hitting 277, six homers,

eight steals in 83 games. Does not strike out. A sub 10% strikeout rate for a 20% strikeout rate for a 21-year-old is just bonkers. It's so rare in the game today. 9.6% strikeout rate for Wander Franco. He hits a lot of line drives. But the exit velocity, the hard hit rate,

very underwhelming, Scott. Maybe playing through injury affected the numbers overall here. I think Wander Franco is kind of a tough player to rank as well. Did you feel that when you were ranking shorts up? Yeah, because I don't want to sell the upside short. He's still only 21. He was the consensus top. prospect in baseball for a couple years, right?

Yeah, entering last year being the latest. And having that kind of plate discipline at such a young age against Major League pitchers, I mean, Juan Soto is the only other player I can think of like that, at least in recent history. And so that's very impressive. But the exit velocities were, uninspiring during that

21 season and they only got worse last season at a time when we're realizing ex of velocity matters more than ever because of the way the ball's playing now and so six home runs and 314 to pass that's really nothing special from Wander Franco he did have

he was 96th percentile for average or for expected batting average actually underperform that mark when he hit only 277. But is he in the long run just an Ahmed Rosario? I don't think so. But that's what the profile

looks like right now. Yeah. Yeah. Right now it looks if I was projecting him for next year, I think he could hit 300. I think that's the skill set. Lots of line drives and he makes as much contact as he does.

But where's the power and where's the speed? He actually stole a little bit more than I thought he was last year. Is he 15, 15, that's a good player with a really good batting average. That's a productive fantasy player. But that's not his upside. You know, that's not a first or second round player where, you know, some people thought he could get to.

He still could get there. I just, I don't know that it's going to happen yet. I think we still need to see a little bit more from Wander Franco. But I agree. I don't want to sell him short because I still think, you know, he could get there one day. And because the, the strikeout rate is so low, it's worth pointing out. I have him four spots higher in points leagues. Like there's much less concern about him living up to his potential in that format.

He was basically right in between Xander Bogartz and Carlos Correa in terms of head-to-head points per game last year. He was ahead of Tim Anderson, for instance. So he was very much a part of that second tier at the position in points leagues. But yeah, it was pretty disappointing in five-by-five. All right. 16 through 20 in the early shortstop rankings. We have Javier Baez, Ezekiel Tovar, Ahmed Rosario, Jorge Mateo, and Nico Horner. Scott, let's start with the top two here.

Javier Baez's first season in Detroit was a disaster. And I think the fact that he played his home games in Detroit, we've seen this with many players before. I mean, most notably Nick Castiano's wasn't able to hit for power in Comerica Park. Javier Baez hit 220 with a 607 OPS at home. I think he can get better. I typically don't like to draft players their first year in a new environment.

So maybe you buy a little bit of a dip on Javier Baez. But the other name here is Ezekiel Tovar, a big prospect with the Rockies. Early projections, Scott, steamer projections are out. They're pretty favorable. 280, 16 homers, nine steals, and only 113 games for Tovar.

You know, if he plays 130, 140, that means they think he can be a, you know, 20 homer, 12, 13 steel guy. that's a good player. What do you think about these two? Baez and Tovar. Well, and obviously he has course field working for him,

so he's going to have a huge babb in all likelihood. They may actually be underestimating the batting average. They may be underestimating all of the stats there. He was the big breakout shortstop prospect of this year, Ezekiel Tovar.

And, you know, my initial inclination was to rank him ahead of Jeremy Payne, even. I kind of moderated, when I saw that Tovar wasn't getting much traction in those early NFPC drafts. And maybe it's just uncertainty about whether he's going to make the opening day roster for the Rockies. I don't see why he won it at this point.

If they were willing to call him up late, it's not like they have great alternative. They don't have an alternative at shortstop, really. And if there's a team, Scott, that wants to put themselves in position to earn another compensatory draft pick, it should be the Rockies. It should be. Yeah. Well, so I guess what I'm saying is if you're drafting really early, take advantage of that... I already did, Scott. The fact that everybody's overlooking Tovar because he could be a huge riser in spring training

if it looks like he's going to snag that job for the Rockies. Let's see. Who else are we talking about here? Bias, yeah, so Bias, I've been calling him a bust candidate for like five years and it finally happened. But now, yeah, everybody's... So moved on from him that, you know, he's still only 29. He does have this, this, like, his profile relies on outlier production, both with BABIP and home run to fly ball ratio. Just that's, it's just, it's just the way he's composed.

And like, he needs those two to succeed. And that's hard to repeat year after year. but he's young enough that I don't think he can't get back to it. And he actually did improve his strikeout rate quite a bit in his first year in Detroit. So that was interesting. But the most encouraging thing for Javier Bayes is that he saved the best for last. In September, he hit 293 with six home runs in 831 OPS. Obviously, if he was doing that all year, we want to be talking about him in this light.

And he said he felt pressure to perform after signing that big contract and was pressing most of the year. which is possible. I mean, there's no way to prove that that's what happened. I don't want to just completely take his word for it. But like, that's, if you're looking for a positive case for bias, the fact that he's offering that explanation and that he did turn things around finally in September, I think he could be a bounce back candidate, somebody who still has 2515 potential at least.

I think he's, go ahead. He's not a bad pick here. I think you could say the same thing about Francisco Lindor, right? His first season with the Mets, he said something similar, right? A lot of pressure, new team, obviously big market with the Mets. Not the same situation with the Tigers, but in general, when you join a team like that, you do feel pressure and you do want to take on a lot of responsibility. I think we saw that with Lindor.

I think we saw it last year with Javier Baez as well. The last two names here we haven't mentioned yet, Jorge Mateo. He was very useful this year, specifically with the SEALs, 35 steals, second most in baseball behind John Bertie did come with a 221 batting average. Doesn't completely sink you in power, has had 13 home runs. And Nico Horner, who basically did his best Gene Segarra impersonation. I made that calm throughout the season. Kind of seems like a similar player, a player that is getting better over the past couple

of seasons. He hit 281, 10 homers, 20 steals. Really does not hit the ball hard at all. Like, maybe he was lucky to get to 10 homers, but he's fast. He makes a lot of contact. I think these guys are fine, Scott. They're more so middle infielers at this point in the draft. Yeah, Horner was pretty good at yanking the ball in the air last year,

which is how you can deliver a respectable home run total, despite not hitting it very hard. He at least did pretty well at that last year, which is how he got to 10 home runs. And I know we've made the Gene Seguera comparison to him in the past. I think that still seems fitting. At this stage of their careers, Horner's probably a better bet for stolen bases,

but he's going to be helpful in batting average and may deliver a useful number of home runs. Won't deliver a lot. I think him and Ahmed Rosario are really comparable, too, especially if you're looking at Rosario, taking a step forward in stolen bases as I am. Jorge Mateo is a tough one because the 35 steals, obviously, in this format,

are very valuable. There's no reason to invest in Mateo when it points leak. He just doesn't do enough apart from those steals, and they're not... they're not as in demand in a points league. I don't know. Looking at it now, I'm kind of thinking I should flip the two.

I should go Ahmed Rosario 18th, Nico Horner 19th, Mateo 20th. And then I would have Adalberto Mondece 201st, who I think is in a similar situation to Mateo profiling for similar numbers, but of course with a lot more injury risk. There's also, I think,

playing time risk for Mateo with Gunner Henderson, presumably in the majors from start to finish. he's got to see some time at shortstop. Mateo has some experience in the outfield, but the Orioles, I don't think they, they ever played him there last year. Just, they have good enough outfielders that they don't need to do that with Jorge Mateo.

So could he be phased out? I think that's possible. So, yeah, hard to know where to rank him in those 35 steals. Well, Scott, if you needed that last nudge, last push, Niko Horner is going 20 spots ahead of Jorge Mateo in ADP right now. So if you want to make that,

Pop, you are justified, sir. Well, thank you, Frank. All right, we're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball. Today will be back again on Wednesday. Bye-bye.