Fantasy Baseball Today - Shortstop Replacements, Jacob deGrom's Return & Start/Sit Decisions! (9/16 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Episode Date: September 16, 2024

The Red Sox own Gerrit Cole (2:30). ... Julio Rodriguez is finishing strong (9:05). ... Michael Busch had a huge week (11:48). ... Brandon Pfaadt got destroyed this weekend (14:53). ... We had some in...juries to big-name shortstops this weekend (20:50). ... News (26:50): Tyler Glasnow is done for 2024. ... Jacob deGrom was solid in his return (33:30). ... Add any of these waiver wire pitchers for this upcoming week (40:40)? ... Rank Taylor Ward, PCA and TJ Friedl (50:26). ... Start or sit these starting pitchers (55:17)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:00:57). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, and welcome in to Fancy Baseball today on Monday, September 16th. I am Frank Sample, join by Scott White, and Chris Towers.
Starting point is 00:00:31 Today on the show, we had a bunch of shortstop. injuries this weekend. So you probably need some replacements. Jacob de Grom is back. We've got some waiver moves, start or sit decisions, and much more apologies if I sound kind of nasally, I got destroyed by allergies this weekend. But anywho, let's jump in. Can you believe that Garrett Cole got owned by the Red Sox again? Scott, that is where we will start. Yeah, so he did. It was a bad outing for Garrett Cole on Saturday. Let me give you the numbers here. He gave up seven earn runs and four and a third innings.
Starting point is 00:01:13 He had been pitching great before then. We've talked about him a lot since coming back from that elbow injury has mostly pitched well even though he hasn't had his slider. It hasn't really looked right for him. But in seven starts leading up to this Red Sox start, Garrett Cole had a 158
Starting point is 00:01:29 ERA, a 105 whip 10.6K per 9. Clearly, was somebody you could trust using. But now, following this start against the Red Sox. His ERA for his career, 19 starts against them is 523. Now, I'm generally not somebody who puts a lot of stock into team splits like that
Starting point is 00:01:52 because the sample is generally small and to a degree a sample exists. It was accumulated over a number of years so that the team hardly looks the same anymore that he's facing. But like, it's so much worse than every team with one exception. with one exception, Garrett Cole has a $699 ERA against the Mets. I was going to say, I know he stinks against the Mets too, yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Yeah, that's the only one that's worse. And if you look at his game log this year, his only four bad starts, there were two against the Mets and two against the Red Sox. So I haven't had a chance to, but I'm going to calculate
Starting point is 00:02:26 Garrett Cole's numbers against every team but the Red Sox and the Mets. And it's just, obviously, it's a bigger sample against the Red Sox than most teams. 19 starts now, as I said. So I just,
Starting point is 00:02:38 I wonder if there's some kind of like subtle pitch tipping thing that only they've picked up on. And that's why it could span from year to year, even as personnel changes. I know Garrett Cole has an especially bad track record against Raphael Devers. Yeah, the Raphael Devers, I just want to highlight that. Okay, go ahead. I'll have more to say, but go ahead. Here's Rafael Devers against the four pitchers that he has faced the most in his career. Number four is Ryan Yarbrough.
Starting point is 00:03:14 He has a 673 OPS against him. Number three is Charlie Morton. He has a 572 OPS against him. Number two is Jose Burrios. He has a 681 OPS against him. He has 46 plate appearances against Garrett Cole. He has a 1410 OPS against Garrett Cole. Unreal.
Starting point is 00:03:33 It's wild. So, in fact, he's that like Devers is in his head at this point because the trouble the trouble started for Cole in this start because he intentionally walked Devers with nobody on in the fourth inning I believe it was after he cruised through three. Yep. Intentionally walked Devers with nobody on and he made this decision utilaterally. The catcher didn't know he was going to do it. The manager didn't know he was going to do it. He just decided I'm going to walk Devers intentionally. And that started all the trouble for Garrett, Cole on the fourth. So all of this is to say, bad track record against the Red Sucks, Rafael Devers in his head. Otherwise, there wasn't a lot that looked different for Garrett Cole in this start. And I don't think you should abandon Shapir on him as bad as this start was at a critical time. Presuming he didn't eliminate you with this start.
Starting point is 00:04:27 His next start is against the athletics. I would absolutely start him for that. His following start is against the Orioles. I would probably start him against that unless things go terribly against the athletics. So, you know, there's not this time of year, you know, on this podcast we're usually talking in terms of rest of season value. Like we take a medium term look at players for the most part. But the medium term is shot now. It's just are you starting him?
Starting point is 00:04:56 Yeah. Or what is next year's value? You're starting Garrett Cole. That's what I was building up to, basically. And Chris, I know you sent over a video clip before we started. There is an audio associated. We overcomplicated it. Just play the clip.
Starting point is 00:05:10 I think this explains it perfectly. Just dip my heart and called the Red Sox. Because my daddies. What happened there? That's the famous Pedro Martinez quote, where he says the Yankees are his daddies, except it's, you know. Yeah. I want to play this again. Hold on.
Starting point is 00:05:29 I want to hear it. Just dip my heart and called it. sock because my daddy's I think that's all this is really just I think it's a psychological issue at this point and like yeah it's not great that the psychological issue happens to be against your team's greatest rival and if I were a professional baseball player I think I would rather retire than walk the best hitter on my greatest rivals lineup with the bases empty and and no outs. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:06:05 I mean, but it is a coward's move for sure. Like, like, I genuinely think they might just need to like, not have him face the Red Sox next year. Like, it's wild.
Starting point is 00:06:18 It's crazy. As far as, like, Garikull's 2025 value, I don't really know where to rank him. I don't know about you guys, but like, I'm probably just going to default to top 12, but.
Starting point is 00:06:32 I was going to, going to say top 15. I need to see this. Like it would be nice to see the slider before I do that because like, like you said, he's mostly managed to be effective this season. It just hasn't looked like what it looked like and there's been more of these types of starts. I found him just outside of my top 15 and rest of season value for a couple turns now.
Starting point is 00:06:55 So I think I'll be able to get him in there easily for next year. I will probably have Spencer Strider ranked ahead of him. But I can say top 15 for Cole, unless, you know, obviously if there are bad reports about his elbow over the off season, that changes things. Yeah, Gary Cole, bit of a tough one entering next year. He just turned 34 years old last week, and he's got nearly 2,000 innings worth innings on his arm throughout his career. So, and obviously the underlying elbow concerns that he dealt with earlier in the season. So, yeah, I do think he's going to make for a pretty polarizing player in 2025. Chris, speaking of polarizing.
Starting point is 00:07:33 players, you have one here as your player of the weekend. Yeah, Julio Rodriguez, who I was kind of always planning on just not saying that this season didn't count, but not overreacting to it and probably ranking close to the first round, especially in Roto leagues. And hey, this big weekend makes me feel a little bit better about that because I'm trying to find he had two, three hit games among the three games this weekend. sorry, two two hit games. He hit homers on Friday and Saturday. He's hitting 333 with five homers, 17 runs, four steals over his past 17 games. And, you know, I had kind of when he had that hamstring
Starting point is 00:08:18 injury and then came back from it very quickly, or ankle injury, came back from it very quickly, was pretty mediocre in August. I had kind of just written off Holi Rodriguez, you know, in terms of his ability to be the guy we once thought he was. I just thought, thought he was playing hurt, he came back super cold. This has been a nice reminder of what Julio Rodriguez is capable of when he's right. And, you know, early on in the season, especially the quality of contact metrics were mostly not that different than what they'd been the previous couple of years. You know, his ex-WOBA now is 342. It was 337 and 345.
Starting point is 00:08:55 The previous two seasons, first two seasons of his career, he wasn't pulling the ball in the air, but that's an issue. that he has started to fix in the second half. And I mostly think Julio Rodriguez should just be drafted as a top 15, maybe top 12. Like him versus Corbyn Carroll, I think is a really interesting one for 2025. I would probably take Carol, given how good his second half has been. But I think both are probably playing their way back into at least the top 20 in Roto Leaks. Yeah, very polarizing players. again with Julio Rodriguez, who's turned it up lately. He's obviously been much better. I have last
Starting point is 00:09:38 17 games here, 333 batting average, five homers, four steals, and an OPS over a thousand for Julio Rodriguez. Scott, what do you think about? I mean, if we're looking forward, Carol versus Julio for next year. I tend to play things extra cautiously with early round picks. So I don't, I don't think either will be in my first round. I guess Julio Rodriguez would probably rank higher. I could see him being in the second round. Carol might slide to the third. But I'm just going off the cuff with this and I may surprise myself. I'm actually going to do this tomorrow. I'm actually going to put together my ideal first two rounds for next year. So I'll be able to say with more conviction then. All right. Player of the weekend for me is going to be Michael Bush, who, if we're being honest,
Starting point is 00:10:22 just had a huge week in general. He did cap that off with a double dong here on Sunday. Obviously, we had the revenge games against the Dodgers earlier in the week and then a weekend series. in Corse Field. So obviously a great setup here for Michael Bush, who throughout the week had 11 hits, four homers,
Starting point is 00:10:37 and 11 RBI. And now overall in the season, 257 batting average, 340 on base, 20 homers, 794 OPS. Doesn't blow you away, but I mean, that is a quintessential
Starting point is 00:10:50 corner infielder. If you play in a Roto league and you can just pencil in like a 260 batting average, 20 homers and okay counting stats, it doesn't really help you, it doesn't hurt you. It's just, boom, you need to lock in these stats.
Starting point is 00:11:04 And that's what Michael Bush has done here in his first real opportunity. I would think like 253, probably what, 75 homer or 75 runs, 65-ish RBI, 20-something homers. That's probably like the exact replacement level of a middle infielder in a 12-team rodeo league, I would guess. Corner infielder. Or corner infield, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, and the thing we got to remember about Bush, too, he's 26 years old, but he's a rookie. So this is, this was his first long-term exposure to the majors. And the thing I've been down on with him, pretty much all season is the strikeout rate. It's been a lot better in the second half. It's been 25% in the second half. It was like 30% in the first half, 25% in the second half. And his average exit velocity has improved in the second half. So making more contact and making. harder contact.
Starting point is 00:12:02 What's strange about that is the numbers are worse, like the forward-facing numbers. And I don't really see any reason why I was looking at fly ball rate, pull rate, all that stuff. It seems fine. So I'm going to choose to be encouraged by it, especially since he's finishing September here strong. And I'm going to be fairly optimistic about Bush going into next year, I think. Not that he'll be a top 15 first base.
Starting point is 00:12:30 for me, but I think there's a good chance he will, if he is just a late round pick, I think I'll like him to exceed that value. And if we're just looking forward to this upcoming week, Michael Bush, 66% rostered. The Cubs have the fifth best hitter matchups, according to Scott White's hitter rankings. And so if you do need a first baseman or third baseman, I think he's totally fine. Well, there are four lefties on the schedule. Ooh. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:59 So that's, he's actually performed pretty well against Lent. He's been fine, yeah, 766 OPS. Yeah, certainly better than you'd expect from a rookie left-handed hitter, but he just doesn't get to play much against them. Gotcha. All right, so does that kind of dumb down the excitement for this upcoming week? Yeah, I would say so. It would have to be a larger Roto League, I think, to use Bush.
Starting point is 00:13:20 Okay. Fair enough. I want to give an, oh, my goodness, gracious shout out to Brandon Fott. Hope he did not end your fantasy season on Saturday, because he was at the Brewers where he allowed eight earned runs. He only allowed, he only recorded five outs in that game. Seven hits, three walks.
Starting point is 00:13:35 Honestly, he was having a strong season up until just recently, but man, it has taken a tailspin. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. I was going to say last six starts for Brandon Fott, it's a nine ERA on the nose, a two whip. Babup is near 500. His left-on-base percentage
Starting point is 00:13:51 has been terrible. You know, based on the FIP and the X-P during that span, it seems like he's been pretty unlucky, but that doesn't change the fact that he is a nine ERA over his last six starts. Yeah, and this is, I think we had a couple of examples, but this one in particular, I think, stands out. Him and Andrew Abbott, I would say, would be the two examples of guys who were having good seasons, but we're doing it mostly by sustaining really good quality of contact
Starting point is 00:14:22 metrics, which was surprising, especially for five. because that was such a problem for him last year. He just got crushed when he allowed contact. And this year had totally flipped. He was putting up really good quality of contact numbers. And this is why one thing I was talking about when we talk about that is you need a really large sample size to know when you can predict pitchers being able to suppress quality of contact. And generally speaking, if a pitcher is not getting a lot of strikeouts, not really doing a great job of limiting. walks and is just getting by on weak contact, in the long run, you should probably expect that
Starting point is 00:15:03 to not work out because most pitchers who are outliers in that regard will regress to the mean. And that's, yeah. Here's what's strange about that, though, with Brandon Fott. So Andrew Abbott was overperforming his ERA estimators all year. All three of them, FIP, well, there's more than three, I guess, but the main three I look at FIP, X-FIP, and X-E-R-A. Andrew Abbott was over-performing them. It seemed like an obvious regression candidate.
Starting point is 00:15:31 Fought for the most part has been underperforming them, all three of them. They look rather solid for him. The worst is X-E-R-A, because there are some quality of contact issues. It's 382, but that's still a full-run better than his ERA at this point. His FIPP is 367, his ex-FIPP is 374. That's decent for a pitcher who throws a lot of innings. I'm not saying you need to stick with thought, clearly not. He's been unusable for several weeks now,
Starting point is 00:16:01 but it does give me, it does make me a little more hopeful for him than Andrew Abbott without relying on any kind of skill change. I would just say the one thing is we're now significant chunks of two seasons in where he's just been a lot worse than his ERA estimate. meters. That's not to say that's definitely the case moving forward, but I tend to think it probably,
Starting point is 00:16:30 like there's probably something there where he's one of those guys that just, when he gets hit hard, he gets hit so hard that it kind of overwhelms anything good that he does. Again, that is Brandon Fott. Before we hit our first break, reminder to sign up for the FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, we've been telling you all season. Chris, I did want to ask, What is the plan for the FBT newsletter during the off season? Just so, you know, people who are subscribed have an idea there. I'm probably going to sleep normal hours for a little while at least. But no, I am planning on continuing it throughout the offseason,
Starting point is 00:17:07 probably once a week, at least at first. But we'll see. You know, I'm having an off season for that. I've covered multiple sports my entire 13 years at CBS, so this is my first offseason ever. So I don't know, I might go stir crazy and start writing a newsletter every day. Again, if you have it already, it's CBSSports.com slash newsletters where you can find the FBT one, and you can sign up for free, and you can continue to, you know,
Starting point is 00:17:38 indulge in some fantasy baseball content throughout the offseason. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we will get into those shortstop injuries and replacements here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in some big injuries this weekend. Francisco Lindor left Friday's game with backsornis and was out of the lineup on Saturday. He actually returned to the lineup on Sunday and then left early with renewed back discomfort.
Starting point is 00:18:02 He will undergo imaging on Monday. The Mets actually called up one of their top prospects. Luis Anhele Acuna, who is the younger brother of Ronald Acuna, was not having a very good season in the minors, though he does have a lot of speed. He had 40 steals, but not really, much outside of that. Scott, would you plan on not having Lindor this week? And is there any interest in deeper leagues in Luis Anhele-A-Cunia? It would probably have to be NL only for this particular
Starting point is 00:18:29 Acuna, who has more value than the other right now, I guess. But that won't be a long-term situation. As for Lindor, so he came out with the same injury that he sat out Saturday, right? I haven't seen an update on that, but it doesn't, it doesn't sound promising. It all sounds back related, yes. I assume it's related, so. Yeah, it stinks. I think I have them in one league where it's between me and one other guy for first place in a roto league, and as of right now, I think I'm going to have to sit Lendor. I can't afford to take a big fat zero. Some other injuries from the weekend, CJ Abrams missed all three games due to left shoulder
Starting point is 00:19:13 Sornis, Tyler Fitzgerald, miss all three games due to lower back tightness. And lastly, I do know that O'Neill Cruz plays outfield now. He's gained that eligibility. I think some people still might be using him at shortstop. But he left Sunday's game due to a left ankle injury. So again, we've lost some big names, some possible replacements this week. In the sleeper hitters column, Tommy Edmund's 69% rostered. He had a huge week, five homers, one steal, and just overall been very good with the Dodgers.
Starting point is 00:19:42 He's batting 300. he's got an 855 OPS, and he does have shortstop eligibility. A couple names further down the list. Haraldo Perdomo, 31% rostered. The Dodgers, the D-backs, excuse me, have three games in Corse Field. So obviously that helps for Perdomo's value. And Trevor Story is doing some things since he returned. He hit a home run on Friday, three-for-four with a steal on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:20:05 Chris, who do you like more for this upcoming week? Haraldo-Prodomo or Trevor's Story? Story in Roto, Portomo, and points is probably the answer. Story is an especially bad point player. But since getting to the Red Sox, he's played like 140 games, I think. And it's like 20 homers, 25 steals, like 80 RBI, 80 runs, 90 RBI, something like that. It's a bad batting average, a lot of strikeouts. There are clear limitations to his game.
Starting point is 00:20:33 But I think he's actually a decent middle infield option in Roto when healthy. Perdomo, I think it's just batting average and maybe the occasional steal, but in a points league, his plate discipline and the matchups of cores, could work. Tommy Edmund over both of them, I would say. Yes, for sure. My number two sleeper hitter for this week. Scott, I said that. I don't know if you heard me say it or not.
Starting point is 00:21:01 Is that exactly that? That is my number two sleeper. I said, of your sleeper hitters, there was only one shortstop eligible player, and it was Tommy Edmund. Okay, how could you? Some names in deeper leagues. Orlando Arcea, 19% roster. I know the Braves have some good matches this week. Jose Tena, 13% rostered, but lots of lefties on the schedule. He is a left-handed bat, so don't know if that works out exactly.
Starting point is 00:21:23 Otto Lopez, 10% rostered. He's been hitting well, 41 games since the start of August. He's batting 297 with two homers, nine steals, and an OPS near 800. Scott, if you're just looking in deeper leagues, any of these names stand out, Orlando Arcia, Jose Tena, and Otto Lopez. Well, I like Tena, as we've talked about before. I don't know what his numbers are against left-handers because he is a left-handed batter
Starting point is 00:21:49 and there are four lefties on the schedule. So I will look that up real quick. I do believe he's playing against lefties. These numbers aren't great. Yeah. For next week, I would say that Arcia probably with the Braves having the second best hitter matchups and I guess he's probably the one to use.
Starting point is 00:22:11 He's been not terrible lately. Well, I guess it depends how you've defined the term lately. He has a 735 OPS with nine homers since the All-Star break. Decent enough. He's been really bad in September. So, you know, I don't think RSI is a difference maker by any means. But yeah, I think if you need to plug that hole, he's fine. mention Otto Lopez?
Starting point is 00:22:38 Yep, yeah. And again, these are just kind of interesting. You weren't listening, Chris? Come on.
Starting point is 00:22:43 No, I could just, you know, you guys want to do the podcast. It's all good. No one listens to me anyway.
Starting point is 00:22:49 Two among us, you know. Yeah, Otto Lopez has a not totally uninteresting skill set. He's a career 287 hitter at
Starting point is 00:22:59 AAA, about a 15% strikeout rate, very, very little power, but decent speed. he's hit well lately for the Marlins. I don't have the numbers exactly, but I did write about him today in the waiver wire column. Let me see if I can pull that up really quick.
Starting point is 00:23:17 Your mic is doing that weird underwater thing again. I don't know why it's happening. Because I started talking about the Marlins. That might be why. We live underwater. I did have 41 games to the start of August. Chris, 297, two homers, nine steals, and OPS around 800 for Ottawa.
Starting point is 00:23:32 That's the one I was going to say, 299 batting average since August 1st, with a 36 stolen base pace. Yeah. So again, those are very deep league names. And then, you know, if you play in like a 12-team Myrtle League, you might be able to get someone better, like a Pardomo or Story.
Starting point is 00:23:45 And in the shallowest of leagues, Tommy Edmund for this upcoming week. Some other news and notes, Tyler Glass now has a sprained right elbow and is unlikely to return this season. He ends his Dodgers debut year with 22 starts at 349 ERA, a 0.95 whip, 11K per 9.
Starting point is 00:24:04 did throw a career high 134 innings this season. But this is more than that. You know, I will say if you drafted Tyler Glassnow at cost this year, it worked out. Like, you made a pretty good pick.
Starting point is 00:24:21 There were like 10 worst picks you could have made among starting pitchers who were drafted in the top 20. I think we did a, maybe for the CBS Sports Network show, We did like over unders before the season. I think one of the ones Frank you picked was over under Tyler Glass now strikeouts. I think it was set at 173.5.
Starting point is 00:24:44 He got to 69. Ooh. They're real good at that. Yes. Over in, over in Las Vegas. Yeah, they certainly are.
Starting point is 00:24:54 I think it does add obviously a bit of doubt, a little bit of doubt at least for next season for a 31-year-old pitcher who throws hard, has had Tommy John surgery. He ends his season with a sprained elbow. You know, off the top of my head. Like, who are you going to rank higher? Tyler Glass now or Garrett Cole for next year. Probably Cole. Well, that's a big change because I think we were talking about Tyler Glass now as a top 10.
Starting point is 00:25:20 But so is it because it's a sprained elbow and... Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's more damage to an elbow that's already had plenty of damage. And look, presumably he will be fine by March. But part of why we were talking about ranking Tyler Glass now as a top 12 pitcher next season was he was on pace to actually finish a season. And now he's not going to. But he was top 10 coming into this season.
Starting point is 00:25:48 Yeah, we ranked him right around there. But he didn't have any elbow issues the previous year. So I think it's, I don't know. Maybe I'll have Glass now. I don't know. No, I don't think you're wrong. I'm not arguing with you. I'm just trying to, people who've listened, should we be that concerned about the sprained elbow?
Starting point is 00:26:09 And, you know, a sprained elbow is often a precursor to elbow reconstruction surgery. So it's not always, but it's a small distinction between a sprained elbow and a torn elbow ligament. It's semantic. A sprain is a tear. we just usually refer to a tear as a tear and a sprain as like an ouchy but like medically a sprain when you tear your UCL in half that's a sprain the worst kind of sprain yeah no it's a grade three or whatever but like that's you know that that's it's like we don't even know if this is a grade one sprain which is a relatively minor one if it's a grade two like yeah there are details we don't know as well and we may never know. Right. It's all I'm saying is be careful with class now.
Starting point is 00:27:05 Yeah. As we've had to do for I would say most seasons of his career. Dave Roberts also added that he does not believe Clayton Kershaw will return before the end of the season. Terrick Scoubles right hand has checked out fine after testing and he's expected to make his next start Wednesday against the Royals. Jose Altuve returned to the lineup Friday after missing Thursday with side soreness. Braves manager Brian Snickr said Friday that he's not sure if Ozia
Starting point is 00:27:28 will play again in 2024. He suffered a fractured left wrist in late July. Tanner Halk was scratched from his start Friday due to right shoulder shoulder fatigue and we have referenced many times. The innings that have built up here for Tanner Halk, he's already up to a career high and so, I mean, I think you could pretty safely at least not start. Tanner Hock this week, right?
Starting point is 00:27:52 I would not want to start Tanner Halk this week. Yep. Stephen Kwan missed all three games this weekend due to Body fatigue, have you guys heard anything on him, whether or not you should look for a replacement for Stephen Kwan? I have not seen anything, but it feels pretty easy to sit him. Yeah, he's been bad in the second half too, so. Yeah, but I think he's going to play. It would have to be a shallow three outfielder league where I could honestly feel like I could find an upgrade.
Starting point is 00:28:23 Alec Bowen was reinstated from the IL on Sunday. He was in the Phillies lineup batting fifth. Carlos Correa was reinstated. from the IEL on Saturday. He's been out since the All-Star break with Planter fasciitis. Correa is still 84% rostered and was having a great season
Starting point is 00:28:36 before the injury. 308 batting average, 13 homers, 896 OPS in 75 games played this season. J.T. Real Muto returned to the lineup Friday after missing five straight with a left knee contusion. Jordan Westberg has begun hitting in the cage
Starting point is 00:28:51 and is participating in full baseball activities. He's recovering from a fractured hand he suffered in late July. Ryan Nelson was born. placed in the aisle with right shoulder inflammation. Sounds like Jordan Montgomery would jump back into the D-BACs rotation. Dalton Varsho has missed four straight with shoulder soreness. Merrill Kelly has been cleared to pitch on Monday, which I believe makes him a two-star pitcher
Starting point is 00:29:12 at the Rockies and at the Brewers. So don't think you should use Merrill Kelly this week. Yeah, he's in the no-thanks tier of the two-star pitchers for me. Heston Kursad was reinstated from the IL Sunday. He was in the lineup batting fourth versus Roe-Thankstead. right-handed pitcher K Dare-Montaro, and the Kirstad is 26% rostered. Looks like the Orioles have six games this week, at least one lefty on the schedule, and there's one TBD.
Starting point is 00:29:38 Scott, any interest in Heston-Kirstad in deeper leagues, the final couple weeks? I mean, we don't really know how much he's going to play. I would just leave him for A-L-only, I think. All right. Ben Joyce was diagnosed with a right-shoulder impingement, and we'll miss the rest of this season. The Yankees moved Marcus Stroman to the bullpen. That means they're rolling with Garricole, Carlos Rodan, Nester Cortez,
Starting point is 00:30:01 Luis Heel, and Clark Schmidt in the rotation. Matt McLean is unlikely to return before the end of the season. He had shoulder surgery back in April and then suffered a stress reaction in his ribcage. Some other players who went on the aisle this weekend, Paul Seawald with left neck discomfort.
Starting point is 00:30:16 So it looks like it's Justin Martinez's job for the rest of the season. Unless it becomes AJ Pucks. That is a possibility. And Samuel Aldegari, who was recently called up for the Angels, He went on the aisle with a blister on his left middle finger. The return, he is back.
Starting point is 00:30:32 Jacob de Grom pitched well in his season debut at the Mariners. Three and two-thirds, shutout innings, four strikeouts, 10 whiffs on 61 pitches, a 16% swinging strike rate in this one. Velocity was down quite a bit, but first start back. Chris, Jacob de Grom. It was down a mile per hour and a half on both the fastball and slider. but I'm not sure that's a bad thing. I have almost, yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:00 I mean, he might be right, but I have two miles per hour on the slider. He was winning Cy Young's before ramping up the velocity to where it ended up. And this has long been my theory with Jacob de Grom. He was throwing harder. He got to a point where he was throwing harder than his body could actually sustain because that's when all the injuries started for him.
Starting point is 00:31:22 When he took that next step with velocity, And he clearly didn't need it. He was winning Sy Young's before then. So I hope it's intentional, frankly. What, gosh, I'm round rock is there. I'm trying to find his last, because I remember his minor league stints didn't look like his velocity was down at all.
Starting point is 00:31:49 But I don't know. I could find that pretty quickly here. Yeah, but either way. I agree. Like, Jacob de Grom, I'm not worried about Jacob de Grom not being good, right? Like he had 10 whiffs on 61 pitches, 10 whiffs on 31 swings, seven of them with a slider. He looked awesome. He mostly looked like Jacob de Grom.
Starting point is 00:32:12 The problem is he threw 61 pitches. So when you're talking about the rest of the season, like he gets the Mariners again. I would expect more than four strikeouts next time around. if I was projecting that start five innings, one run, seven strikeouts is probably where I'd put it. That's probably good enough to start in a Roto League.
Starting point is 00:32:34 I think he's probably not great in a points league for the final couple of weeks, but when you're, if we're talking about 2025 value, I don't know. I have, there's no reason to believe that this guy can stay healthy. He hasn't done it since 2019.
Starting point is 00:32:51 He hasn't made, I think he hasn't thrown a hundred in a, And so, well, he stayed healthy in 2020. That's not fair. I think he made every start in 2020. He hasn't grown 100 innings since 2019. He hasn't made it through a season without a significant injury since 2020. If he goes around pick 100 in drafts, I think that's probably fine, right?
Starting point is 00:33:15 A more extreme version of Tyler Glass now. I have no expectation that he can stay healthy, but like as a top 40-ish starting pitcher. top whatish 40-ish That's gonna be pick 100 I would think that sounds right But I don't know anything I'm gonna rank it more like 2025 I think
Starting point is 00:33:35 I think top 30 is probably around top 100 picks But I could be wrong about that Yeah yeah okay that no that's probably about There were 35 pitchers selected in the top 100 last year Probably Eight of them are relievers so yeah So I wanted to follow up on the velocity thing. His fastball velocity was not down as much at AAA as it was in this first major league start.
Starting point is 00:34:02 The slider velocity was. Okay. So, yeah, not throwing as hard as when we last saw him in the majors. But again, I'm not worried about that. How many pitches do you think he gets up to in this next start? Like 75? 75. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:20 but probably I would guess it max is a 75. Right. You know, I always kind of liking Jacob deGrom to Thanos, right? It's like, you became the best pitcher in baseball. What did it cost you? Everything. He already was the best pitcher in baseball. Yeah, that was like 2018, 2019, Jacob deGrom is like late 90s, Pedro.
Starting point is 00:34:43 Like, that's the closest analog I've ever seen. He had the 170 ERA one year, right? I was reading the recap of his start on the Rangers official website and they called him upon second reference the four-time All-Star and that made me sad because Jacob de Grom should have more than four all-star appearances. It's just he's... Two Tsay Young's four All-Stars, is that?
Starting point is 00:35:14 That's a heck of a ratio. Is he a Hall of Famer? no I would have voted for Johann Santana I would vote for Jacob de Grom man 36 years old if we could get like one or two more of the type of seasons that like Chris Sale put up this year at a de Gras he might make it but but like he's at 1400
Starting point is 00:35:38 he's not even at 1400 career innings it's it's just that probably doesn't get in that peak was so dominant but yeah that peak is one of the five best pitchers I've ever seen I mean, Linsicum had a dominant peak. Not like that. Santana got a dominant peak. Johan should have gotten in. Linscom, it was really only like five good years.
Starting point is 00:36:00 Brett Saberhagen. All right, let's take our final break. And when we return, we'll get back into this weekend's action. I got some waiver wire pitchers. Start or sit decisions. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in waiver wire pitchers from the weekend. Some names in the shallower leagues between 70 and 75% rostered on CBS.
Starting point is 00:36:17 Max Scher, Jacob DeGrom's teammate. was okay at Seattle in his return. Four innings, two runs, two strikeouts, but did have 11 whiffs on 73 pitches. He is home against the Mariners this week. David Peterson bounced back with a big start at the Phillies. Seven and two thirds, one run, six strikeouts, 18 wifts on 99 pitches there. He's home against the Phillies again this week. Mackenzie Gore bounced back against the Marlins on Sunday, six innings, one unearned
Starting point is 00:36:42 run with five strikeouts. He's at the Cubs this week, and Jameson Tion, a quality start at the Rockies in Cores. field, six innings, two runs, six strikeouts. He had 14 whiffs on 85 pitches, and he gets the Nationals this week. So pretty good match up there. Chris, how are you ranking just this upcoming week? Tyone versus the Nats, McKenzie Gore at the Cubs, David Peterson versus the Phillies, and Max Schur is her home against the Mariners.
Starting point is 00:37:07 Bluh. I guess I have to put Peterson first, given how good he's been for as long as he's been. But I have no faith in him doing this again against. the best offense in baseball against lefties two starts in a row that feels like asking a lot but i i struggle with situations like this because i've just been wrong about david peterson for like two months straight and maybe i will just continue to be wrong about him for luckily only two more starts um but yeah i i would put him at the top i think i'd go gorn tyone ahead of shurser honestly I know, Scott, you were a little more optimistic about Scherzer coming into this start.
Starting point is 00:37:50 I don't know if you... Yeah. I didn't ski anything to really change my opinion. Well, he's facing the Mariners. So I had hoped for more as dominant as that rehab start was for Scherzer. But he is the only two of these four pitchers and the sleeper pitchers for this week are Scherzer and Tyone. Not Peterson, not Gore. So I guess I'd rank them in the reverse order that you did.
Starting point is 00:38:21 Yeah, I think putting Tyone at the top of the list would actually be totally fine. He's been good for quite some time, and Nationals is pretty good start in a row, yeah. Yeah, National's pretty good lineup there for James and Tion. Waiverwire Pitchers Part 2. Clark Schmidt turned in a near quality start up against the Red Sox, five and two thirds, two runs, five strikeouts, and he is at the Mariners this week. Great matchup. Zach Lattell turned in a quality start at the Guardians, six shutout innings with five strike, 18 whiffs on 89 pitches.
Starting point is 00:38:48 Problem is he's home against the Red Sox this week. And Jose Cantana, a great start at the Phillies, seven shutout innings with four strikeouts. His last four starts, a .36 ERA and a one whip. And he is home against the nationals this week. Scott, any interest or do you have any of these names on your sleeper pitchers? Jose Cantana, Zach Wattell, and Clark Schmidt?
Starting point is 00:39:08 I don't, though. You could make a case for Clark Schmidt. At the time, it didn't look like he was going to go against the Mariners, but I think it looked like the Yankees were going to stick with a six-man at that point. And they have removed Marcus Stroman from the rotation, plan to go five-man. So now Clark Schmidt does line up to face the Mariners. And he went five-and-two-thirds innings.
Starting point is 00:39:33 So gave a true starter's length there. And his second start back from the IL, right? Long injury absence. Yep. He's looked just as good coming back as he did before the IEL. stint and before the IL stint, he looked like he was having a breakout season. 241 ERA overall, 113 whip 9.4K per 9, a good swinging strike rate, a fine walk rate.
Starting point is 00:40:00 It's not a lot to say negative about Schmidt. It's been a curiously quiet breakout considering he's a Yankee, but he looked pretty good this year. And I think I think he'd be a fine play against the Meriters. All right, Waverwire pitchers part three. Martine Perez had a solid start at the Giants, five innings, one run, two strikeouts, and he is home against the White Sox this week. Fantastic matchup.
Starting point is 00:40:26 Nick Martinez continues to pitch well. He was at the Twins, six innings one run, six strikeouts. He gets the Pirates this week. Edward Cabrera, an awesome start up against the Nationals, six innings, two unearned runs with nine strikeouts. He had 16 whiffs on 100 pitches. Problem is he faces the Dodgers.
Starting point is 00:40:43 And DJ Hers, another solid stuff. start on the other side of that one, up against the Marlins, five innings, one run, five strikeouts, and he is at the Mets this week. Chris, any of these names stand out, hers at the Mets, Cabrera versus the Dodgers, Nick Martinez versus the Pirates, and Martine Perez versus the White Sox. Three of these four are viable streamers for this week. Cabrera against the Dodgers, I know he's been good lately, and maybe we should have a longer conversation about him, sort of maybe starting to
Starting point is 00:41:16 like the guy we hoped he could be just by keeping the walks to a normal, mediocre range. He was almost like, oh my goodness gracious player. But I can't start him against the Dodgers. Like maybe he'll be great. And we'll have a conversation later on this week about Edward Cabrera and his sleeper potential for 2025
Starting point is 00:41:36 and starting him against the twins in the final week of the season, I think is what it would be. Yeah, that's weird. Marlins versus the twins in the final week of the season is weird. The other ones, I think, are all viable streamers. Nick Martinez as a spark against Pittsburgh, I like. Martine Perez also as I spark against the White Sox is pretty good. And I'm going to, I think one of the things I'm going to do for the newsletter
Starting point is 00:42:01 fairly early on after the season is a way too early sleepers breakouts and busts. I'm pretty confident DJ Hers is going to be on my sleepers list for 2025. I actually think, I don't know if this is a hot take. I think he's going to be the best national starter. in 2025. And I say that as someone who has generally liked McKenzie Gore
Starting point is 00:42:19 quite a bit and still think there's plenty of upside there. Yeah. DJ Hurd surprise me. Has a strikeout rate
Starting point is 00:42:26 near 30%. His whiff rate is like 78th percentile among all starters. The control has not been as bad as I feared it would be and the quality of contact
Starting point is 00:42:37 is fine. He's having a really, really nice second half of the season. Don't love the match up against the Mets, but if Francisco and Doors not there.
Starting point is 00:42:48 Don't hate it. I could see it as well with hers. You know, someone who could generate whiffs on a, on his fastball like hers does, 30.6% whiff rate. I don't know if that's fully sustainable long term, but he's done it for quite some time, you know, at least this season. And I think the changeup has room to grow. I think the change up's a legit swing and mess pitch despite only okay numbers.
Starting point is 00:43:11 Yeah. It's just consistent on all three pitches for DJ hers. The quality of contact and the whiff rates are. They don't blow you away, but they're all pretty solid there for him. Some names in deeper leagues. Alec Marsh had a big start Friday at the Pirates. Five and a third innings, one run, 11 strikeouts with 18 whiffs. Brady Basso pitched well at the White Sox, five and a third shutout with two strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:43:31 Patrick Corbin, another quality start, this one against the Marlins, six innings, one run, six strikeouts. Joey Cantillo had a huge week. He had that great start against the White Sox earlier on. And then versus Tampa, five shutout with six strikeouts. He had 15 whiffs on 68 pitches. And Kyle Freeland, a quality start up against the Cubs, seven innings, three runs, three strikeouts. Scott, very clearly, deep league names here.
Starting point is 00:43:55 You know, 15 team leagues are deeper. But any of these names stand out, Freeland, Joey Cantillo, Patrick Corbyn, Brady Basso, and Alec Marsh. Well, I talked about Brady Basso last time when he made his major league debut and some interesting numbers he had put together AAA. overall 10.2K per 9 versus 2.9 walks per 9.
Starting point is 00:44:19 So you like that. The RA is high overall, but last eight starts at AAA, Brady Basso, has a 229 ERA, 8.96 whip and 11K per 9. So he appeared to turn the corners, 26 years old. It's an atypical profile, but there may be something there for deeper leagues. Cubs is who he has this week, right? Yes. I'm not thrilled to use him. I wouldn't be anyway,
Starting point is 00:44:50 because there's not enough of a track record there. But I think he's somebody to pay attention to if he finishes the year strong. And I can't really say that about these others. Alec Marsh has had flashes and his five starts at AAA flat out dominant. But he's been in the majors long enough that we need to see a little bit of sustained success,
Starting point is 00:45:17 I think, before we hop on board there, even though he probably has the best matchups of these four pitchers next time going against the Tigers. I did just want to point out with Joey Cantillo. It's a really small sample size, but so far on the season, his slider has a 45% width rate and his change-up a 47% whiff rate.
Starting point is 00:45:35 And he did have some prospect pedigree. The past couple years in the minors, he's fallen off. But up through 2022, Dude, minor league track record was actually really good. And the Guardians typically do well with developing pitchers. So I'm not saying, like, again, this is deep league stuff. Maybe a super deep sleeper for next season. But some interesting with numbers there from Joey Cantillo.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Waiverwire hitters, some names in three outfielder leagues. Pete Crow Armstrong enjoyed his weekend in Coors Field. One for three with a sock in a shoe on Saturday, then added his 10th home run on Sunday. Last 44 games per PCA. It's a 309 batting average, seven homers, nine steals, in OPS right around 900. Taylor Ward added another home run this weekend.
Starting point is 00:46:17 He's having a big September, 326 with six home runs. And T.J. Friedel hit two home runs this weekend as well. A four-hit game on Saturday. So he's picking things back up. Chris, how would you rank these hitters for this upcoming week? PCA, Taylor Ward, and T.J. Friedel.
Starting point is 00:46:33 I think in a roto league, I would probably go in that order. Mostly because PCA and Taylor Ward have seven games and Friedel has six. I think in points I'd be fine with Ward at the top ahead of PCA, but Friedel at the bottom either way. Yeah. The one word of caution on Crowe Armstrong this week,
Starting point is 00:46:55 the same one I gave from Michael Bush, four lefties on the schedule for the Cubs. Crow Armstrong is at least going to play those games, you would think. But not his best against lefties. So for the sleeper hitters, I do have Crowe Armstrong on there, but I have Ward ahead of him. and I know I have Friedel on it. For what it's worth, in 68 at Bats against Lefties this season,
Starting point is 00:47:18 PCA is batting 250, one of his 10 home runs, but also a 602 OPS. So, you know, he's kind of holding his own, but obviously that OPS is pretty darn bad. Some names in five outfielder leagues, Lars Neupar has hit much better as of late, two-for-four with his 10th home run on Sunday, which came off of a lefty,
Starting point is 00:47:37 13 September games. He's batting 361, two homers, two steals, an OPS over 1,000. And Luke Raleigh, also having a big month so far. 326, 4 homers, 2 steals, 1129 OPS, 5 outfieler league, Scott. But did any of these names kind of cross your mind at all? Lars Neupar, Luke Raleigh? The Cardinals' matchups are decent this upcoming week.
Starting point is 00:47:58 They have Skeens on the schedule, and Mitch Keller on the schedule, Michael Boyd on the schedule. But otherwise, the pitchers are pretty weak. So, yeah, I gave some thought to putting Newbar on the sleeper hitters list, and he is having a good September. Overall, he's put the ball in the ground, and it's true for September, too. He's put the ball on the ground way too much this year. He's kind of undercut his potential in that way.
Starting point is 00:48:27 It's been a disappointing season for Lars Newt Bar overall, but the numbers this month are good, and yeah, you can think about using him. One name in deeper two-catcher leagues, Hunter Goodman had a huge game on Friday, three-for-four, with a double-don- seven RBI, and he has started five of the past seven games for the Rockies. He's getting some starts in at Catcher. He's 5% rostered. The Rockies have six games this week. Three are in cores, three are on the road. But, you know, Chris, a move I could see doing in a deeper two-catcher league,
Starting point is 00:48:55 like Gabriel Moreno is back, dropping someone like Adrian Del Castillo to pick up Hunter Goodman. Yeah, I think that's reasonable. I think I put in a bid for Hunter Goodman in one of my 14-team Roto leagues, where I think I was starting Gary Sanchez at catcher. Yeah. So, like, yeah, just hope that Goodman, Goodman, who has a little bit of speed and plays at course field,
Starting point is 00:49:20 hope he starts four games. He's batting 188 this year, guys. Come on. Hunter Goodman has a two-homer game, and you guys are all in again. I'd rather have Saul Goodman at this point, okay? All right, all right, all right. Hold on. Hunter Goodman is a 24-year-old catcher.
Starting point is 00:49:37 with a 1088 career OPS at AAA. That's only 46 games, but at AA, he has an 825 OPS with 27 homers in 103 games. I don't think Hunter Green is, Hunter Goodman is great. We have touted less interesting Rockies players this season. No,
Starting point is 00:50:00 I don't know that I agree with that. The bar is very low for deeper to catcher leaves. Brenton Doyle hit, Brenton Doyle hit 203 last year. Very Michael Hessman production, minor league production here from Hunter Goodman. That's reasonable. But like. Michael has him up.
Starting point is 00:50:18 Michael Toledo is hitting 221. Like it's not, Michael Tollia hit 163 last year. Yeah, but Tollia is actually a prospect. I'm not sure Tollia is that much more of a prospect than Hunter Goodman. I'm just saying Hunter Goodman's a catcher who, plays a course field. Yeah. I do agree, Scott.
Starting point is 00:50:39 Saul Goodman over Hunter Goodman for sure, but I would also take Hunter Goodman over at Adrian Tell Castillo for this upcoming week. Starters sit these starting pitchers this week and just going to ask you about some big names first and I know we're most likely going to start these guys. But Dylan Sees bounced back at the giant six shot out innings with 10 strikeouts, 22 whiffs on 92 pitches. But his previous five starts before this one, 527 ERA and a 154 whip. and he's home against the Astros this week.
Starting point is 00:51:08 Dylan Sees. Yeah, I'd be fine starting. This was his best start since July 25th, so it had been a while since Dylan Seas looked like Dylan Seas. And he'd come with a lot of walks, which is that's when I get concerned about Dylan Sees. But he hopefully turned things around here. And even if he didn't, you're probably going to get a lot of strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:51:32 I'm sorry. I think you just roll with him. Logan Webb looks like he has taken a step back once again. His last four starts a 686 ERA and a 167 whip. His change-up in his start this weekend had zero whiffs, 0% CSW, 95.3 average exit velocity. So yeah, look, you take away the best pitch from any pitcher. It's just not going to work.
Starting point is 00:51:54 And Logan Webb is at the Orioles this week. I think he threw it only 8% of the time too, right? The change-up? Yeah. It's, he had a, its usage has been going down. Now four starts in a row, rock bottom here, with the 8% usage, 686 ERA during that four-start stretch. Oh, man, I don't really want to sit him, but... He's also much worse on the road this season.
Starting point is 00:52:23 Yeah, I'm... I don't think it's inconceivable to sit him this week. No, it's not. It's not at all. I just don't know if any of the streamers that we talked about earlier, like, would you sit him for Martin Perez against the White Sox? No. No. Like if I said it
Starting point is 00:52:40 against the pirates. Right. Like I think you need a higher end alternative like a two-star Redetmer's or something. You know what? Clark Schmidt at Seattle I would do. I could see that. And it just feels like one of those situations where okay, I'm going to
Starting point is 00:52:58 play it safe here in the playoffs at this pitcher who's been bad in his last four starts even though he's you know, normally. borderline ace. And then he blows up on your bench because of course he does. It is possible, yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:13 Yeah, I mean, maybe we're getting a little bit too cute. It's just, man, it's up and down, kind of inconsistent year for Logan Webb and just obviously do not like that matchup at Baltimore. The rest of these names were all started in less than at 70% of CBS leagues. Joe Musgrove was great at the Giants.
Starting point is 00:53:28 Six shot out innings with eight strikeouts. He had 12 whiffs and seven starts since returning from the IL, a 237 ERA and a 0.89 whip. he's home against the White Sox this week. Joe Musgrove, yeah, other than that, the bad start was an aberration and he bounced back nicely.
Starting point is 00:53:45 So yeah, of course. Maybe just all the Joe Musgrove fantasy managers are out of it by now. It's fully possible. But man, if you have him, please start him because that is a fantastic matchup. He also has a new slider. I saw, you know,
Starting point is 00:54:01 Saras was tweeting about. So he's just continuing to continuing to tinker, but I've been really promising since coming back from that injury, and it's going to be really interesting to see how Joe Musgrove gets valued for 2025. Zach Eflin took
Starting point is 00:54:17 a tough luck loss at the Tigers, six and two-thirds innings, one run with three strikeouts, in seven starts with the Orioles, a 222 ERA, and a 103 whip for Zach Eflin, who is home against the Giants this week. I say yes. Yep.
Starting point is 00:54:33 Yeah, that's fine. Rinell Blanco turned to a strong start at the Angels, six shot-out innings with five strikeouts, 15 whiffs on 92 pitches. This was his first start since September 1st. And he gets the Angels again this week. I haven't seen if he's actually going to stay in the rotation. Is he? Renel Blanco? Let me see. I haven't seen. Yeah, seven games on the schedule this week, so I think he's supposed to, yeah. Are you guys good with using him against the Angels? I'm fine with it. Yeah. Yeah. Spencer Schwellenbach turned in a strong start up against the Dodgers,
Starting point is 00:55:06 six innings, two runs, six strikeouts, 13 whiffs on 92 pitches. And he is at the Reds this week. He's only 53% started, CBS. He hadn't been super great for points leagues lately. No quality starts in almost a month, but yeah, I would start him. Yusay Kikuchi has pitched well since joining the Astros. Eight starts with Houston, 319 ERA, a 0.94 whip, 11.1.1, K-per-9, and he is home against the Angels this week.
Starting point is 00:55:35 Only 69% started right now for you say Kukuchi. Yeah. Yeah, I'd lean yes on that. And Charlie Morton continues to pitch well this time. Sunday night baseball up against the Dodgers. Six innings, one run, six strikeouts. He had 14 whiffs on 91 pitches. Last seven outings for Morton.
Starting point is 00:55:53 It's a 268 ERA 126 whip, and he's at the Marlins this week. So I think so for Charlie. Good at least think about that, yeah. I mean, obviously, we just said yes to everybody. Logan Webb, I guess we were kind of an offense for. Yeah, fair enough. I would say the only ones that are like, I would say the only one that's a 100%.
Starting point is 00:56:19 I can't imagine sitting him in any scenario is that Joe Musgrove against the White Sox. All right, fair enough. Let's get into some leftovers from the weekend. Adle, Rutchman, Homer, on Sunday. But I feel like we haven't talked about this. His second half has been dreadful. 207 batting average.
Starting point is 00:56:35 Three homers, a 604 OPS. The quality of contact has just been awful, which leads me to think he might be playing through something. I look back through the injuries. He was day-to-day with a right-hand injury in late June and then day-to-day with a back injury in August. So maybe that's been a thing. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:56:54 It's been bad. Yeah, the exit velocity has been down and the fly ball rate has been up and that's a bad combination. So I don't have an explanation for it. It just confirms that he's, he deserves to have numbers like he does. But it doesn't really explain why he has numbers like he does.
Starting point is 00:57:15 So what good is it really? Yeah, I mean, I think the hypothesis that he's not 100% makes a lot of sense. He's a catcher who plays nearly every day. And they call him the tools of ignorance for a reason. And if you look on Stackast, You know, we almost never talk about, like, defense on this show. But that is one place when a player is playing through injury that I like to look and just see, like, okay, is he just hot or is he just cold at the plate? Or might there be something underlying here?
Starting point is 00:57:44 And his sprint speed has dropped from 40th percentile to 29th percentile this season. Most of his defensive metrics have taken a big step back, including pop time, which would seem to me to be one of the most. physical things that a catcher can do. So I think it's possible that he's just, or I guess likely, that he's not 100% healthy. And I think you could probably say that about any catcher, but especially given those indicators for Adley Rushman. But my long term interest in Adley Rutman has certainly not taken a hit. He's just probably not the number one catcher for next year. I wanted to provide a reminder for how good these two hitters have been overall this season. Willie Adamas had a monster game on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:58:32 Three for three with a double dong, five RBI. He's up to 32 homers, 10-RBI, 18 steals in 810 OPS. Its career highs across the board in a contract year, and he is now the 16th overall player in Roto this season and entering free agency, which I think will be fascinating for somebody like Willi Adomis. And Brent Rooker, who added another home run
Starting point is 00:58:55 and another steal this weekend. He entered Sunday as the 11th overall player in Roto, averaging 3.5 fantasy points per game in points leagues. That's tied for 13th among all hitters. It's better than names like Bryce Harper, Raphael Devers, Freddie Freeman, just an insane season from Brent Roker and Willie Adomas. Yeah, Adamas, you know, I started working on the top 12s for next season and he was 11 at shortstop. That might be underselling him. Like, do I really need to put O'Neo Cruz ahead of him? I'm going to. he's had a pretty big second half of his own
Starting point is 00:59:31 I think the ceiling's higher this is going to be the best year of Willie Adomas's life I feel confident saying and so I would be careful about overranking him but I think top 12 is deserved
Starting point is 00:59:47 yeah probably Chris please do let me know once you do those outfill rankings because wherever you have Brent Rooker I would love to know because I have no clue I have no idea. I genuinely have no idea what to make of this Brent Rucker season. I don't like what, what's the analog here? Like this is a 29, is he 29? That sounds right. He could even be a touch
Starting point is 01:00:16 older than that. Uh, 29. He turns 30 on November 1st. So he's almost 30. Uh, he had a good season last year, but tons of strikeouts, very all or nothing. very hot or cold. He's just flat out been one of the best hitters in base. He has a 170 OPS plus this season. That's the kind of number that like if Aaron Judge
Starting point is 01:00:41 didn't exist might lead the major or might lead the league. Like that is a huge, huge number. And it's come out of nowhere. I mean it happens. Yeah. Edwin
Starting point is 01:00:57 Incarnassion's career followed a similar trajectory. He was not very strikeout prone. And Rooker remains strikeout prone. So it's not a perfect analog. Of course, Jose Bautiste doesn't even more famous one even later on. But again, he had really good plate discipline or at least did once he broke out. So I don't know. I would be, I usually try to be careful with these one-year wonders and then find out that I've ranked them higher than everyone else, even in trying to be careful. So he's probably going to be top 20 for me. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:01:36 The process is probably going to be slower for me than Chris. And I don't know, Chris may go back and do a deep dive later on. I kind of go through all of October doing rankings. And I do a deep dive on every single player as I'm making those rankings. sometimes maybe it's a little too much, but I find little kernels that maybe are better left ignored in these deep dives, but we'll see if I find anything for Rucker.
Starting point is 01:02:06 But here's another thing that we have to keep in mind that we frankly have no idea how to account for. We're going to be playing in Sacramento next year. Yep. Where like, I want to say they recently had a stretch of like some absurd number of days. in a row of 100 degree heat. And like, I know Scott Boris did one of his extended soliloquies about the, the situation
Starting point is 01:02:31 in Sacramento and the fact that they're going to be playing on artificial turf in a very warm climate and the impact that. Like, I genuinely have no idea what to make of this very dumb, nonsensical, unnecessary situation that the Oakland athletics are going to put their players through next. season and for like what four seasons after that? So I I don't know it's like how how's that part gonna play
Starting point is 01:03:04 what's like there's a lot of unknowns there as well so it's a pretty bad park for hitters right? I don't uh... 706 so I'm looking at last year's numbers just comparing it to other PCL parks. 86 park factor for home runs,
Starting point is 01:03:31 76 for runs. That sounds awful. Yeah, I mean, PCL's a hitter-friendly league overall, so it's hard to know how to adjust for that, but it's the worst park. It's the second worst park in that league. Yeah. And it's not at elevation.
Starting point is 01:03:48 It's one of the only parks or one of the parks in the PCL that's not at elevation. So you wouldn't expect a boost that way. Yeah, I don't know. It's... To be fair, Oakland is not a good place to hit either. No. No. I mean, like, the way Brent Rooker has impacted the ball this year,
Starting point is 01:04:05 it might not matter where he plays, but he also needs to maintain that level of production. And this is the only year we've seen him do that. So I'm not going to say Sacramento is a bad place to hit. It's just not like a great place to hit. I mean, I think we can pretty much conclude that. Let's get into some other leftovers from the weekend, starting with some pitchers. First group, Corbynman Burns, Chris Sale, and George Kirby.
Starting point is 01:04:29 I'm not going to read off the lines, but all three of those guys were great. Did you guys have anything on Burns, Chris Sale, and George Kirby? I mean, Kirby was good for once. Hasn't happened much lately, even though he wasn't getting strikeouts. I don't know. I've not really found anything. when he was struggling and this time when he didn't to really dig into it with Kirby.
Starting point is 01:04:57 I just think he's probably the same guy he's always been and just kind of went through a rough stretch there. Two other names, Jose Burrios is really finishing strong. His last seven starts, 151 ERA and a 0.84 whip. And Christopher Sanchez doing the same thing. Last six starts, 199 ERA, 0.93 whip. And just four walks over 40 and two-thirds innings
Starting point is 01:05:21 his last six outings. Chris, anything here on Berrios and Christopher Sanchez? Barrios, I have no clue. This has been the thing with Barrios for frankly, like his entire career. He goes through these stretches where he looks amazing. He goes through these stretches where he's awful. And it never really looks that different outside of the amount of hits and runs he give up, which I know that's the thing we care about. But as far as projecting moving forward, he's got a 344 ERI for the season. 475-476 XERA. I am probably not too excited about drafting Jose Barrios for 2025.
Starting point is 01:06:00 Some hitters who are having some big Septembers, we already spoke about Julio Rodriguez, but Fernando Tatis has homered in four of his last five games, and in 11 games since returning, batting 2.95, he's got those four homers, one steel, 925 OPS. Glaber Torres in 14th September games is batting 339, two homers, 11 runs in 878 OPS. He has let off every game for the Yankees since August 16th.
Starting point is 01:06:23 And Riley Green in September 327, four homers, 13 RBI, and a 1046 OPS. Scott, some big months so far for each of Tatis, Glaber, and Riley Green. Yeah, Glabors had a pretty hollow batting average during, it really goes into August, right? Where he's been successful, but just not a lot of power. and so I'm not exactly he hasn't really put my mind at ease I would say during this stretch where he's hit for average Riley Green are we going to take him over Brent Brooker next year no I would take Rucker okay if you're going to take Rooker then I'm going to take Rooker too yeah that's but green like Green is on pretty close to like a 27 homer pace.
Starting point is 01:07:18 Steels are, I think he's only got four. Yeah. I mean, he's emerged as a legit power hitter this year. There's not a lot else there. Yeah. But there shouldn't be a lot else there for Rooker either. I think Riley Green's a must-start player. I don't know if there might be another step forward.
Starting point is 01:07:36 Obviously, you know, he's super talented, but. Still pretty young. Yeah, but he's probably. I think before the season I made some Nick Castiano's comps and that's probably you know like the good Nick Cassiano's seasons obviously there's been a lot of inconsistency that's probably where I'm at
Starting point is 01:07:55 yeah I think I'll probably rank Rooker ahead of Riley Green but it'll be one of those situations where if Rooker's a fifth round pick and Riley Green goes like a round or two later I'll probably just wait for Riley Green instead something like that fifth round sounds horrible for Rooker I just threw it out there. I have no idea when it's going to pee. But yeah.
Starting point is 01:08:15 I think you got to wrap your heads around it, though, because it's like 37 homers and 10 steals. It's a pretty big, no. For a longer season. Yeah. But there's been a lot of bonkers seasons that everybody knew to fade him the next year. Yeah. So I'm kind of thinking that's going to happen with Rooker? Maybe not.
Starting point is 01:08:36 Is Chris going to be the Brent Rooker guy? Is that what we're doing? I don't know. It's just like, it's one of those things where, like I understand why it happens. But like if Austin Riley had the season, Brent Rooker's happening, he's a top 15 pick.
Starting point is 01:08:50 Yeah. And that's not to say that. He's Austin Riley. I get that. But like, what if Brent Rooker is Austin Riley now? Yeah. Like the underlying numbers totally back it up.
Starting point is 01:09:01 There's nothing fluky about it. It's just. There was that random year Josh Bell had. Yeah, no, I get it. I understand. I understand him. I rate it, ranked him higher. the most. I get it. I understand the case against him. It's, it, it, it, but it is like,
Starting point is 01:09:19 on the merits, Brett Rooker definitely should be a top 40 pick. Just based on this production, this season, yes, uh, but obviously there are, uh, more factors than that. Some other hitting leftovers, Aaron Judge ended his home run drought in a big way on Friday. Go ahead, Grand Slam and then one for two with a sock and a shoe on Sunday. He's up to 53 homers, nine steals, tons of counting stats on the season for Aaron Judge. Bryce Harper, two for four with a double dong on Saturday. And those were his first two home runs since August 9th. So a bit of a power drought here from Bryce Harper. Cody Bellinger had a big week, eight hits, three homers, nine runs, nine RBI. Yorda Alvarez continued his strong second half. He homered twice this weekend.
Starting point is 01:10:04 James Wood, huge game on Sunday, two for three with a double dong. one of the homers was 109 eggs of velocity 435 feet. The other 107.7 eggs of velocity, 426 feet for James Wood. And Jackson, Churio, another huge game on Sunday, 3 for 6 with his 21st home run and 5 RBI. Lots of fun, lots of interesting names here. Any quick thoughts? Chorio Wood, Alvarez, Bellinger-Harper, Judge. So I have to point this out, even coming off this two-homer game for James.
Starting point is 01:10:37 James Wood. His 162 game pace is 17 home runs. Isn't that surprising? He's got the very high ground ball rate. But it just feels like he's, oh, James Wood. He's, he's killing it. But no, 162 game pace, 17 home runs. That's, I would expect him to take a step forward next year,
Starting point is 01:10:59 but it does, does make you think. So, James Wood or Bryant Rooker. Everybody's going to take James Wood over Brent Rooker. I'm probably going to rank James Wood ahead of Brent Rooker. I'm probably, I'm going to draft Brent Rooker more than James Wood. I can't say I'm going to rank Brent Rooker ahead of James Wood. Yeah. I have a feeling James Wood's going to be overranked, which is kind of why I said what I just said.
Starting point is 01:11:26 Yeah. So I, there's a good chance I'll draft more Rooker than Wood too, but Wood will go at least three rounds ahead of Rooker, I think. Some bullpen updates for the Tigers. On Friday, Tyler Holtin struck out two for his eight save. And then on Sunday, Tyler Hulton recorded four outs across the sixth and seventh innings. And then Jason Foley recorded the final four outs for his 23rd save of the season. I still think Foley is first up, but Tyler Holton has had a pretty good season.
Starting point is 01:11:53 For the Yankees on Friday, Luke Weaver entered in the eighth inning with a one-run lead. He tossed two shutout innings with five strikeouts for his second save. And then on Sunday, it looks like Luke Weaver was unavailable after throwing two innings two days prior. Jake Cousins started the ninth inning with a three-run lead. There was a hit by pitch, a strikeout, and then a walk. He was relieved by Tommy Canley,
Starting point is 01:12:13 who induced a double play for his first save. But my guess as to who will lead the Yankees rest of season is Luke Weaver. My guest, too. Yep. For the raise on Friday, Edwin Useta got the final five outs for his third save. Scott, would you say
Starting point is 01:12:29 the same thing about Useta and Tampa Bay to lead them in saves? At this point, yeah, though I think it's even murkier than the Yankees situation. For the Cubs on Saturday, Porter Hodge got the ninth inning with a two-run lead. He gave up a two-run homer to Sam Hilliard, took his third blown save, and then on Sunday,
Starting point is 01:12:46 Hodge was unavailable. Kegan Thompson started the ninth inning with a four-run lead. He gave up a single and two walks. Tyson Miller came on to get the final three outs for his first save. For the Pirates on Sunday, Arold is Chapman, struck out one for his ninth save.
Starting point is 01:12:59 And for the Blue Jays on Sunday, Chad Green bounced back a one-run lead. He gave up two hits, but did pick up his 17th save of the season. To stream or not to stream, on Monday, we have Matthew Boyd facing the twins. Jake Irvin is at the Mets. Aaron Svali gets the Phillies.
Starting point is 01:13:16 Andre Palante versus the Pirates. Reed Demers gets the White Sox. Obviously, Demers. I'm going to say Matthew Boyd's my second choice. Yep. Yeah, I think that's fair. And then on Tuesday, we have Albert Suarez who faces the Giants, Bobby Miller.
Starting point is 01:13:33 Miller's been so bad, but he's at the Marlins, so I don't know. His second matchup is good this week, too, but he was still in the no thanks of the two-star way. Tyler McGill gets the nationals. We get anyone else kind of interesting. Oh, Griffin Canning gets the White Sox, Lance Lynn against the Pirates. Yeah, I will just say in one league, I don't know if I got Kumar Rocker, but I did put in a decent bid for Kumar Rocker in a Roto League, and I went ahead and dropped Gavin Williams.
Starting point is 01:14:07 And that's with very reasonable concerns about Kumar Rocker's actual utility for fantasy. I just don't really have any interest in starting Gavin Williams. So it's not a terrible matchup. I wouldn't be shocked if he did well, but I couldn't do it. So I like Monday a lot more than Tuesday. I think I would go with McGill and Swar as. McGill and Suarez. I could see a good Lance Lynn start against Pittsburgh, too.
Starting point is 01:14:34 I like Canning, most of all. Griffin Canning against the White Sox. It could work. But Albert Suarez against the Giants is my second choice. Yep, and then I'll throw McGill third on that list. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks, as always, for tuning in some fantasy baseball today.
Starting point is 01:14:48 Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts. Thank you.

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