Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers 2.0! Jackson Merrill, Henry Davis & Other Undervalued Targets (3/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 5, 2024

Jackson Merrill has a real shot to make the Padres' Opening Day roster (2:30)! ... Henry Davis revamped his swing this offseason and looks great in spring so far (9:55). ... Nestor Cortes could be a b...ig value at his ADP (15:30). ... News (19:53): no update on Ronald Acuña but Kevin Gausman and Sonny Gray are now dealing with injuries. ... Tarik Skubal, AJ Puk and Edward Cabrera all looked great on Monday (29:14). ... Back into Sleepers 2.0, this time Ty France, Anthony Rizzo and Teoscar Hernandez (41:55). ... Don't forget about Colt Keith, Brandon Lowe and Maikel Garcia (47:53). ... We wrap up with Jasson Dominguez and the rest of our sleepers (57:24). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hey there, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, March 5th. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers today on the show, Sleepers 2.0. We got some news to talk about injuries to Kevin Gossman and Sunny Gray.
Starting point is 00:00:40 plus the latest spring training standouts, but let's get right into it so we could talk about as many names as humanly possible, and Scott, we will start with you in addition to Sleepers 2.0 that you are excited about. Well, I assume you're excited about all of them, but most excited.
Starting point is 00:00:57 The one I'm most excited about, and I'm kind of amazed he's still being slept on as hard as he is, even in those deep 15-team rhodo leagues where you get, you get into the 400s. You're drafting into the 400s. And I took this guy,
Starting point is 00:01:16 uh, was it quite 400? I guess it was 390. 90. It was 390 where I took him. So almost there. Jackson Merrill is the name. Jackson Merrill of the Padres,
Starting point is 00:01:26 20 year old shortstop prospect who is not going to make the Padres as a shortstop, but is likely to make their team as an outfielder. In fact, their beat writer for the team's official site said, as long as he hits well enough, he will be on opening day roster. He has looked perfectly fine in the outfield. That doesn't seem like it's going to be a hurdle, the defensive side of it. Is he up to the task offensively?
Starting point is 00:01:55 I think that's a legitimate question because, as I said, Jackson Merrill is only 20. He barely made it to AA last year, got 46 games there. So obviously no time at AAA. And he was merely okay at AA. He hit 273. He had a 782 OPS. Numbers were actually very similar as in high A. But Jackson Merrill is that sort of prospect who the scouting reports far exceed the actual production so far.
Starting point is 00:02:30 As a left-handed hitter, he hits lefties very well, which I think is a sign of what kind of of ceiling he has. His bat to ball skills are very impressive. And there's a lot of power growth projected onto Jackson Merrill, which he's going to need if he's playing half his games at Petco Park. So it may be one of those situations where the Padres are moving him too fast. We saw that a couple years ago with C.J. Abrams and he wasn't quite ready for it and he didn't make much of a fantasy impact for them. And maybe it'll prove true with Jackson Merrill as well, but I feel like any time you get a prospect of this
Starting point is 00:03:11 caliber, consensus top 20 guy on every top 100 list you see, and he's in line for a bats, as Jackson Merrill appears to be, you got to make that, you got to take a shot at it, especially when the cost is nothing. And again, I'm
Starting point is 00:03:27 getting him around pick 400 in a 15-team rodeo league. By the way, if this all plays out, he'll already be eligible at shortstop, and it'll be picking up outfield eligibility. So arguably the two most premium eligibility in a league of that size. So yeah,
Starting point is 00:03:49 I think Jackson Merrill is probably the sleeper addition to my 2.0 that I'm most excited about. I could see, let me just let me say this, I could see a scenario where because he is a hyped prospect and somebody like me is now talking him up, he gets pushed to a point where it's no longer worth taking him, like happened to a lot of the rising spring rookies last year. But as of now, that's not the case. He's still being slept on and being slept on very hard.
Starting point is 00:04:17 And two things I want to mention. One, Scott shows up late. I've already written Jackson Merrill down on the rundown. And somehow we just let Scott take Jackson Merrill, even though he can't show up on time. He doesn't fill in the thing. Wow. And we somehow let him take it.
Starting point is 00:04:35 It's fine. I'm not mad. I didn't know I was expected to fill in the rundown. And the second thing and the thing that I'm actually serious about is Jackson Merrill did start to do some of the things that we want to see as far as gearing his swing for generating more power when he got to double A last season. His ground ball rate prior to 2023 had been 50 to 59%, which is really, really high. at high A, it was 49% last season.
Starting point is 00:05:06 So already a little bit of improvement. When he got to AA, his ground ball rate was only 33%. So that was a 25% line drive rate, 42% fly ball rate. He pulled the ball about 42% of the time. The thing that I was surprised when I was watching the Padres game earlier in the season, how big he is. I've said this before, but he looks like Eric Hosmer, like in terms of like his size and physicality.
Starting point is 00:05:31 Obviously, Hosmer wasn't as good of an athlete as Jackson Merrill is likely to be, given that he plays shortstop. But there are already questions about whether he's going to last it as a shortstop. So, you know, the move to the outfield isn't necessarily super surprising. But yeah, I think this is a guy who you should expect to be able to make a lot of contact, you know, probably more like a 17% strikeout rate at the majors as opposed to, you know, 12% like he was at AAA. but I think above average contact skills growing into his power. And I think there's 1515 potential here. Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. Ezekiel Tovar-like stat line in terms of five-by-five categories.
Starting point is 00:06:14 Now, I do think Jackson-Marrell, I do think Jackson-Meryl will have a better walk rate and a better strikeout rate than Tovar did as a rookie. But Tovare hit 15 homers, stole 11 bases. obviously if Merrill just explodes this year, he could surpass those numbers. But I think that's the reasonable expectation for him. And I know when I was talking about the possibility Jackson Merrill gets pushed up too high, given the possibility he's not ready,
Starting point is 00:06:46 I kind of was thinking, Ezekiel Tovar, because that happened to him at this time last year and he ended up being a disappointment. But if you look at the final numbers, they were not useful. They were useful. Yeah, they were useful. Yeah, I think we might be already too far into, I mean, relatively speaking, for most people, they haven't drafted yet, but we are kind of far into, I guess, like, the fantasy baseball offseason where I'm not sure Jackson Merrill can climb that much. I could be wrong about that,
Starting point is 00:07:13 but yeah, he's still going outside of the top 400 in the past week over at the NFBC as well. And Chris will slide over to you a sleeper that you're excited about, sleepers 2.0. Yeah, and, yeah, I'm working on breakouts 2.0, and this name is actually going to be on breakouts 2.0 in tomorrow's FBT newsletter. But I'm noting that it was just an oversight in my sleepers. And that was Henry Davis, the now outfield eligible, but hopefully soon to be catcher eligible second year player for the Pirates. Remember, he got called up last season played almost exclusively in the outfield,
Starting point is 00:07:49 despite being mostly a catcher on the way up. And he wasn't great last season, 653. P.S. But plus plus raw power, perhaps. You know, in the minors, he ran really good strikeout rates for a guy who hit for power, you know, in the 18 to 20 percent range, walked a decent amount, should have catcher eligibility by the second or third week of the season. He's someone that in my 15 team Tout Wars League last week, I took Henry Davis technically as a utility. but my plan is to slide him into out into the catcher position once he's eligible. And this is a guy who was the number one overall pick in 2021. His ADP is still outside of the top 300.
Starting point is 00:08:38 Last, okay, last season across AA, AAA, and the majors, 19 homers, 13 stolen bases. If he can just do that as a catcher while hitting 240, that's a starter at catcher. I mean, that's pretty much what we're hoping for from like Bo Nailer. And he's going quite a bit higher. And I really like Bo Nailer. He's on my breakouts list. So I am not saying that to disparage Bo Nailer. It's just to say that Henry Davis might have a very, very similar skill set that is going completely undervalued right now.
Starting point is 00:09:16 I think in large part because he has the OF next to his name rather than the C. But he's also. having a really good spring. I think he homer for the third time on Monday, just crushed one out to left field. He worked at drive line in the offseason on both his catching and his hitting. Like I said, the power,
Starting point is 00:09:38 you know, raw power is potentially plus, plus plus maybe. And so I think 19 homers might not be the ceiling for Henry Davis either. He looks locked in so far as you mentioned, six for 15 this spring. Obviously a really small sample size, but three homers. One of those came off of Corbyn Burns last week.
Starting point is 00:09:56 So again, I love what I've seen from Henry Davis so far. The ADP is 304, according to fantasy pros. Scott, if he already had that catcher eligibility, I think Henry Davis would be going around the Luis Camp Usanos and maybe even the bow nailers or Jonah Heim's of the world, which is like, you know, between picks 200 and 250. Yeah, he would be going in that same range. It's the sort of thing where it's just kind of an unfortunate time to be a breakthrough catcher,
Starting point is 00:10:30 if that's what we perceive Henry Davis to be. And I certainly think he has that upside. Former number one overall pick is minor league track record is phenomenal. But catcher is already so deep. And in one catcher leagues, we already can't get to all the catchers we feel like should be drafted. So I'm kind of at a place where, you know, obviously the vast majority of, audience plays in one catcher leagues. But I just can't find justification to take Henry Davis because, well, those guys
Starting point is 00:11:00 already have seen next to the name. And I like the upside of Francisco Alvarez and Logan O'Hoppy and Bo Nailer. So why wait around for Davis to gain that eligibility if those guys are going undrafted? Two catcher league, different story. I think he's a nice bargain second catcher because he's his. his value is falling since he's not catcher eligible yet. And I will also say it's totally plausible. He ends up surpassing those guys.
Starting point is 00:11:30 He has the bow-nailers and Logan O'Hopies in the world. He has that kind of upside, does Henry Davis. And I think what would make that most likely is if he is kind of a 40% of the time catcher, is taking the 40% share with Yasmani Grundal in Pittsburgh, and then spending the rest of his time at outfielder DH. so that he's playing more often than the average catcher eligible player. Now, that gets into the one biggest question I have for him, which is, is he going to play the outfield?
Starting point is 00:12:03 Because the talk this offseason has been he's transitioning back to catcher. And so the question I have is, does that mean he's transitioning back to catcher? Like he's just a catcher? Or does it mean he's going to catch more than he did last season? But we're still going to keep him working in the outfield, get him a couple of opportunities at DH as well. My read on that just from following Pirates Beat Riders, and I haven't seen them explicitly say this, but I don't think anyone is of the mind that Henry Davis is going to catch five, six games a week. No.
Starting point is 00:12:38 So they wouldn't want to stunt his development as a hitter. They have to put him somewhere else. They've already been willing to play him in the outfield. Why wouldn't they just stick him out there again? It's not like it's nearly the high bar defensively that he would at catcher. So I think it's highly plausible. But again, for the typical one-catcher league, it's probably more something that we're monitoring at the start of the season
Starting point is 00:13:06 than that we're structuring our drafts around. By the way, I did want to just mention one last thing on Henry Davis. So his third homer was on a breaking ball against Aaron Savale, and that's specifically what he went to drive line this offseason to address, to have better production against breaking balls. So that was encouraging to see from Henry Davis. And nothing against Edward Olivares, who is currently penciled in as the starting right fielder,
Starting point is 00:13:30 according to Rasta Resource. But if they... It's not going to be every day. If they want to get their former first overall pick in the lineup, I think they could probably do it at the expense of Edward Olavaris or even an aging Andrew McCutcheon coming off a partial tear of his Achilles. So, yeah, I think there will be plenty of... opportunities around for Henry Davis. The hope is that we could get that catcher eligibility
Starting point is 00:13:50 early on in the season. In addition to Sleepers 2.0 for me, I actually haven't wrote the article yet. Mine is due next week, but I've pondered the list so far, and I think one name that will be on it is Nestor Cortez. The ADP is 241.4. According to Fantasy Pros, he's the 66 starting pitcher off the board last year, limited to just 12 stars due to a strained rotator cuff in his left shoulder, and I get that that is a serious injury for any pitcher. But the reason why I'm Adding him here is that I wanted to see what he looked like in spring, and so far so good. I mean, the velocity has been fine.
Starting point is 00:14:23 He built up to 54 pitches in his latest start, which came over the weekend. And unless I missed some kind of news here on Monday, it sounds like he's bounced back well, and so far the arm and the shoulder is holding up. And we know what the upside could be. We saw it back in 2022. Granted, that was kind of a dead in baseball year. So maybe he won't get to this level.
Starting point is 00:14:44 I don't think anyone's expecting that. but he had a 244 ERA, a 0.92 whip over a strikeout per inning. Ken, he pitched to a mid-3s ERA with a good whip because it doesn't walk many guys and just over a strikeout per inning. I think that's possible. And obviously, going to have a good offense backing him with the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:15:02 I usually pick him up as my SP5 or SP6 in a Roto League, which obviously goes a little bit deeper or a bench arm in a shallower format, like a head-to-head points league or any type of head-to-to-head format. either of you guys in on Nestor Cortez after what we've seen so far this spring. I've been drafting him pretty much everywhere, yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:21 Yes. I don't think it's like a slam dunk that he'll get back to being a must-start pitcher and fantasy, but for where he goes, it's, again, it's another player who in the typical league, your draft might end before you even get around to drafting him. But in these deeper leagues, when you really get into the dregs that's starting pitcher,
Starting point is 00:15:43 Nestor Cortez is still there. And it's like, why not? I mean, even if he's, even if he's just kind of a number four starter type for the Yankees, he'll probably have a better than average whip and be a nice specialist that way. And that's kind of the downside case that I'm making for Nestor Cortez. All right, let's take our first break. Before we do that, just a quick reminder that starting this week, we will have seven full length podcasts per week leading up to opening day.
Starting point is 00:16:10 We'll have four normal podcasts that we do. We'll have a two-part live mock draft and then a mailbag which will be out on Saturday. So lots of content coming here in the month of March. Join our FBT Facebook group if you haven't already.
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Starting point is 00:16:50 fantasy baseball today. Welcome back in. Let's talk some news and notes, and the Braves said there will be no update on Ronald de Cunia's knee injury on, we won't get an update until Tuesday on the knee, and their explanation was that the examination happened later in the day, and it was on the West Coast.
Starting point is 00:17:10 Is it still happening right now? I've seen a lot of discussions about like, what does, and let's just not. Let's just not try to parse what this means. Like, this is a good thing. Like, we don't know. There is no point in speculating. We talked about it yesterday. We talked about the potential.
Starting point is 00:17:29 I think we are okay not having a take on this. Maybe you guys disagree. But I, I'm looking at this and I just think I will react when they make an announcement. Yeah, I mean, of course my mind goes places. How can it not? But I don't think it goes to helpful places. And, you know, I'm standing. My broad takeaway right now for however much longer it matters, which might be less than 24 hours, is we have a diagnosis from the Braves. Dr. Neil LaTroge himself saw the scan, the imaging. and was encouraged. And so until we hear another diagnosis that overturns the initial diagnosis, we should just go with that diagnosis,
Starting point is 00:18:23 which is irritation in the meniscus, still be ready for opening day. Kevin Gosman, I think we might actually have a take on this one. He did not throw his scheduled live bullpen Monday due to, quote, general shoulder fatigue, and the MRI showed no structural damage. But the fact that he went for an MRI is at least a little scary to me.
Starting point is 00:18:44 Scott, do you plan to drop Kevin Gosman down the rankings at all? Yes, I do. He probably went around later in the head-to-head points mock draft we just did than he otherwise would have. And I might drop him a little beyond that. I have him as a top five pitcher prior to this, but I'm probably going to move him behind like Terrick Scoobal, probably closer to 10th in my starting pitcher rankings.
Starting point is 00:19:09 I don't expect him to miss a lot of time. The MRI came back clean. That's the reason you have an MRI to find out if anything's going on. Pitchers just are sore sometimes. It's a hard thing that they do. And I think the biggest concern for this with Gosman is, I would imagine he misses his first turn or two at the start of the season now, just because he's so far behind in his buildup.
Starting point is 00:19:33 But I think it's probably going to be okay in the long run. All right. Well, Zach Wheeler, signed a three-year $126 million extension with the Phillies on Monday. The AAV is the largest ever for a contract extension. So was entering a contract year, contract year no more, and Zach Wheeler gets paid. Good for him. Matt McLean, who has been slowed by right oblique soreness,
Starting point is 00:19:55 has resumed regular workouts with the team and could make his Cactus League debut later this week. All right, some good news. David Bednar, who's dealing with right-lat tightness, is currently a shutdown from throwing, but hopes to be back soon. both he and the team downplayed the injury, which, look, it's player speak, team speak. They're usually more optimistic. This is something to continue following.
Starting point is 00:20:18 We're still like, you know, a little over three weeks away from opening day, so there is some time for David Bednar. Sunny Gray was removed from his start Monday because of right hamstring tightness and will undergo an MRI. He's been on the aisle multiple times throughout his career with that same injury
Starting point is 00:20:33 to the right hamstring. Chris, similar question to Sunny, to Kevin, Gosman, obviously a very different injury, but any concern here with Sunny Gray, maybe dropping down the ranks a little bit. I think it's the fact that he has dealt with this injury several times before that I think is the most concerning thing about it, right? Like, I guess the fact that he's been able to pitch despite it, uh, like has been able to overcome it several times. We know that it, it's not necessarily going to derail him. But yeah, the,
Starting point is 00:21:06 the lingering nature of it, the fact that it's a soft tissue injury, the fact that it's during spring training and there might be some risk of setback as he works his way back. I think you have to move sunny gray down draft boards a little bit. Like I've got him at SP 31. He's 108th overall in my roto rankings. I could probably move him. The problem is there's a big tier drop after that. So if I move him like five spots down in the pitcher rankings,
Starting point is 00:21:34 he ends up dropping like 40 spots, but I think that's probably okay, given the injury. This is not just soreness. It's an actual injury. I want to say for Sunny Gray that this kind of gets to why I have him lower in my rankings than maybe people think I should coming off a Cy Young runner-up season in which he did 180 innings. That was the first time Sunny Gray got to 180 innings.
Starting point is 00:22:04 since 2015. He is a continual injury risk, while having also been a performance risk at times, though he's become a little more stable in recent years. And I think it's pretty globby. And this is, if you weren't already drafting Sunny Gray as part of the glob, I think this is all the reason to begin doing that now.
Starting point is 00:22:27 I have met SP 30. So higher than both of you guys, not that he was a target of mine, I guess he just kind of wound up there in the rankings, but I think I will drop him down a little bit behind names like Chris Sale, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober. So that would put him at about SP 36 or 37. Those are just players I'm a little bit more excited about at this point and now we have the injury on top of it. Cedric Mullins was removed Monday due to right hamstring discomfort. The Orioles said the move
Starting point is 00:22:53 was precautionary and that Mullins would not go for an MRI. If he does have to miss any time, we were just talking about Colton Couser yesterday trying to find some time in this Orioles outfield, so that would work out for him, but again, we don't know that Mullins will actually miss any time at all. Dylan Carlson would be in line to start in center field on opening day if Tommy Edmund is not ready, and Edmund had off-season wrist surgery, and it looks increasingly likely that he will start the season on the IL. So maybe some Dylan Carlson love, and a deep name I'll throw out there, I think a pretty fun one as well, is Victor Scott, who last year in the minors hit over 300. He had nine home runs, 94 stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:23:33 So what comes to mind instantly for me is Estuary Ruiz, right? Similar player in the minors. Based on what I've read and prospect grades, I think Victor Scott is a better hitter than Ruiz, or at least he's projected to be a better hitter. I read an article on MLB.com where the Cardinals are apparently giving him a serious look to be on the opening day roster. He played in the Arizona Fall League this year.
Starting point is 00:23:56 Every time I saw him on base out there, he was running. He's ready to go. So I think he's pretty interesting. and for those who play in deeper category leagues, I think Victor Scott should be on your radar. Yeah, I don't have exit velocity data for him because he didn't make it to AAA last year, but I know he had a ball the other day that he hit like,
Starting point is 00:24:15 it was over it. He hit it over 100 miles per hour, which I mean, if that's your peak exit velocity, that's nothing to sneeze at. But, I mean, if that's your peak velocity, that's not particularly impressive. But it is something to sneeze at. Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:24:33 But it's just a random batted ball out of the blue, and it was very hard hit, just as batted balls go. So, yeah, I think you always worry when you get a speedster like this that he's just going to get the bat knocked out of his hands when he gets to the majors, like a Miles Straw situation. But there does appear to be some hope that Victor Scott will be different in that way. He had, looks like, a 106-mile-per-hour home run during the Arizona Fall League. And I'm reading his baseball prospectus right up right now.
Starting point is 00:25:05 If you filter out the bunts from his batted ball data from when he was, you know, in the showcase circuit in high school, it was similar to, you know, some of the other, like the name they drop is Dylan Beavers, who is someone who's viewed as having a little more pop than that at least. So that's, it's encouraging because like the thing about the estuary or Reese comp is if you remember his numbers in the mind, were actually really good. Yeah, he actually hit for power. Like he hit, he had like a 900 OPS across double A and AAA Astroa Ruiz. It was just one,
Starting point is 00:25:39 he was a couple of years older than Victor Scott is and two, the quality of contact data was really bad even when he was hitting for decent pop in the minors. So yeah. Yeah. All right. Tyler McGill has emerged as the favorite to win the Mets fifth starter job. Apparently both Blake's Dell and Jordan Montgomery are open to short-term deals
Starting point is 00:25:58 similar to what Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman signed, and Josh Donaldson announced his retirement on Monday. Fun player definitely had some high highs throughout the course of his career, so shout out to Josh Donaldson. Quickly run through some spring performances from Monday, Terrick Scoobel, my goodness, three shutout innings, six strikeouts to zero walks. He had 14 swinging strikes on 41 pitches, which is insane. He averaged 97.4 miles per hour on the fastball, which is up 1.6 miles per hour from last year. Do you guys react to this at all?
Starting point is 00:26:33 Is it okay, he's looked awesome, but again, we're kind of worried about the velocity, maybe being too high. He's just looked so, so good. I expected him to be really good. The velocity you could take is good news or bad news because he was already so dominant with the velocity he had. Is this just creating more injury risk?
Starting point is 00:26:53 The fact he's throwing this much harder. But in terms of like, does it caused me to move him in my rankings? No, I already ranked him so high. And I'm not, I'm not going to move him down based on this theoretical injury risk that's really just a construct of my head. He's a pitcher. Right. And he's a pitcher who's had Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon surgery within the last five years. So like he already, I did move him up a spot today. That was because I moved Kevin Gosman below him. But like I thought about moving him ahead of Zach Allen.
Starting point is 00:27:30 I do think he's probably the better pitcher if he stays healthy, but Gallup is just such a tank, you know? Yeah. So I, I don't know. I'm not moving him up or down yet. The thing is, Terrick Scoobal was arguably the best pitcher in baseball last season on a per
Starting point is 00:27:50 any basis. I think it's a little like Cole Reagan's though, Chris. Like, we wanted to see it parry over into spring, and so far it has, obviously. Yes. but it's to say that like the added velocity
Starting point is 00:28:01 doesn't move me because it's he's probably not going to be better than he was last season. All right. All right. AJ Smith, Shawver through two and two-thirds shutout innings with five strikeouts and his velocity remains up as well.
Starting point is 00:28:16 The fastball average 96.4 miles per hour in this start. That's up nearly two miles per hour from last year. His slider average 88.2 which is up 3.3 miles per hour. I mean, this is basically a new pitch. This is a new slider here for AJ Smith-Shawver. Scott, we were talking about Ronaldo Lopez yesterday.
Starting point is 00:28:34 And I think we have a legit, you know, conversation now. Smith-Shawr versus Ronaldo Lopez, it'll come down to the rest of spring training, the way that these guys finish out. In theory, Smith-Schallver could beat him out, but I don't think that's what the Braves want to happen. I think they want to get what innings they can out of Raynaldo Lopez because they don't know how attrition is going to impact the starting rotation over the course of the season.
Starting point is 00:28:57 So they want to have Smith Schaver among those lying in wait when they need to bring somebody in to fill in. But yeah, I mean, it's Smith Schauver was one of those pitchers who I had a hard time getting excited about just because I wasn't seeing the upside and the data that so many were putting on him. But velocity being up, and you mentioned the slider, it's kind of a new pitch because of how much the velocity. is up the changeup. He's put a lot of work into the changeup because he was mostly fastball slider last year. The changeup was responsible for four of his seven whiffs in this game Monday.
Starting point is 00:29:38 So Smith Shalver does seem like he's developing at a rapid pace. And I'm feeling a lot better about his chances of living up to the prospect hype now. Jung-Hu-Lee has looked really good so far with the Giants. He had two more hard hits on Monday. He added a walk in an RBI. and he's six for 13 so far in the spring, batting 462,
Starting point is 00:30:00 with a home run and a stolen base. So good to see that from him. The funny thing about that home run was, you know, based on the park estimates of how many parks it would have left, it was estimated to have been a home run in 29 of 30 Major League Parks. The only one was Oracle. Is that what we call it now? That's exactly right.
Starting point is 00:30:22 I almost called it Pack Bell, and I don't think it's been Pack Bell for about 15 years. Geez. A pair of Marlins' pitchers looked really good on Monday. A.J. Pucked through three shutout innings with six strikeouts. Fastball and sinker velocity down
Starting point is 00:30:35 almost two miles per hour, but might be expected because last year he pitched in relief. Now he's pitching as a starter, but continues to work in this new splitter as well. He's looked really great. And then Edward Cabrera through three shutout innings,
Starting point is 00:30:47 three strikeouts to zero walks. 73 of his pitches for strikes in this start. He's now 70% of his pitches through two starts in six. spring, and last year that was 59%. So, Chris, it's a small sample, but this is exactly what we need to see from Edward Cabrera. Yeah, I mean, the only thing is I'm not sure if I'm starting to feel like AJ Puck's got a better chance to make the rotation than Edward Cabrera. But there might be spots for both of them because I don't think Trevor Rogers has pitched in a game. Yeah, well, he definitely
Starting point is 00:31:21 hasn't pitched in a game. I'm not sure if he's like been doing simulated games yet. So there could be room for both of them. I think there's upside for both of them. I would probably still prefer Edward Cabrera, but I think both Puck and Cabrera are absolutely in the sleeper conversation. And I definitely had Cabrera on my sleepers 2.0 list. I might have had Puck and Sleepers 1.0. The thing about Cabrera is I don't know what it would take for me to trust him. He is such a Charazard, you know, if I could bring back that term from last year where he could just totally dominate. or he could just leave you charred. You got to get like six gym badges, Scott, so you can control him.
Starting point is 00:32:03 So you can control him, yeah. I guess that's what the Marlins need to do. With AJ Puck, I think he's in. I think as long as he doesn't get hurt, he's in the rotation. The Marlins seem to be totally in love with this idea of him as a starter. He's able to unfurl his full four-pitch arsenal now, which has been confined as he's been used out of the bullpen with great strikeout numbers. It's worth noting.
Starting point is 00:32:26 So, and five pitches now. He's got both the cutter and the sweeper now. And Puck will have RP eligibility for fantasy. So I just took him as a spark late in our head-to-head points draft. He is a sleeper for me. He didn't make the Sleepers 2.0 article. Maybe he'll appear in the Breakouts 2.0 article. Maybe at some point I'll go and add him back to the Sleepers 2.0 article.
Starting point is 00:32:48 Sleeper's 3.0. Who cares? Sleeper's 4.0. He was the last cut. But I'm going to go ahead and get my, my plug in here for AJ Puck, because he is moving up the rankings at a rapid pace. One Marlin that looked terrible on Monday.
Starting point is 00:33:04 Tanner Scott, he's recorded two outs this spring. He's allowed seven earned runs with five walks. It's too small of a sample to panic. But we talked about this, man. The walk rate dropped tremendously last year. There's going to be some regression. And I'm not sure how long the leash will be for Tanner Scott
Starting point is 00:33:22 if he opens the year as the closer, which I think is expected. but they also have a talented reliever and Andrew Nardi on that team so they have multiple lefties that they can kind of go to. Anthony Bender does have some closing experience so I just wanted to throw those names out there
Starting point is 00:33:35 with Tanner Scott not looking good so far. A couple of their quick names. Johnny Brito, three and a third shutout with six strikeouts as he battles for one of the Padres rotation spots. Chris, your boy. Cody Bradford, three innings, one run, four strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:33:49 He's looked good. Three starts to spring, 257 ERA, 0.806 slip. I think he's locked in the rotation at this point. they sign Montgomery or Snell. Yeah, yeah, I think so too. And just some quick pitch mix news from over the weekend, which I missed on yesterday's podcast.
Starting point is 00:34:04 Dane Dunning has been working on a forkball. Okay, that's the mystery pitch. He was teasing a mystery pitch when he got to camp. There you go. Christopher Sanchez, a cutter. James Paxson has turned his cutter into a bullet slider. Kyle Harrison added a cutter, and Jordan Hicks is working on his split change-up.
Starting point is 00:34:21 Does any of this matter or anything you want to highlight from? I don't know. mentioned Christopher Sanchez, since he is a sleeper of mine, a holdover
Starting point is 00:34:28 from Sleepers 1.0. I don't know how much we went on into it on that show, but elite
Starting point is 00:34:35 walk rate last year, elite ground ball rate, elite change up in terms of whiff rate. And as he
Starting point is 00:34:43 began throwing it more in September, strikeouts started going up for Christopher Sanchez. I can
Starting point is 00:34:49 add now that part of the reason he had that unexpected breakthrough for the Phillies last year. Because you look at his minor league numbers, nothing to write home about.
Starting point is 00:35:00 And it's not like he was a prospect of any renown. His walk rates were dreadful. His walk rate was high. They changed his arm slot. And that's what kind of keyed his whole breakthrough. They also had him dial back the velocity to focus more on throwing strikes. So one of the things Christopher Sanchez is doing this spring
Starting point is 00:35:22 is he's trying to throw harder again, trying to see if he can combine his former velocity with his newfound control, which could backfire. But I think the idea is, if it's not working, he'll just go back to what he was doing last year. But he's trying to even to up his game even further, maybe become even more of a strikeout pitcher than what we're seeing last September. I will say I'm a little bit concerned about him adding a cutter. It seems kind of unnecessary, given his profile. And I always worry when pitchers add cutters because there have been some examples. I think Chris Paddock's an example of a guy who kind of inadvertently started cutting his fastball in a way that really limited the effectiveness of it. I'm a little concerned about Carlos Rodon adding a cutter as well, him more so than Christopher Sanchez, just because Rodon is so dependent on his fastball and slider being elite. And I worry about the cutter kind of blurring the lines between them in a way that might not be super helpful. I had those
Starting point is 00:36:24 concerns before he gave up four home runs in a batting practice session to a bunch of Yankees farm hands. We're not actually worried about that. But at least they were to his own team, Chris. Exactly. That was the quote. Those were the quotes from Carlos Ordone. Let's take our final break when we return all of the sleepers that we can get to in the next, I don't know, 20, 30 minutes right after this. All right, let's just cycle through as many sleepers as we could possibly get to here.
Starting point is 00:36:52 And Chris, we will start off with you. Give me another name from Sleepers 2.0. Let's go with Ty France, who I drafted in the AL-only labor. I drafted in my Tout Wars OBP League. He's someone I really like as a partially as a bounceback candidate. He took a big step backwards last season, but also because he's one of those guys who went to drive line baseball at the recommendation of his teammate JP Crawford. You saw what a big impact that had for Crawford last season. And the thing with France is he estimated he has to be.
Starting point is 00:37:24 average added about three and a half miles per hour to his bat speed during the off season, which that would be a good thing. But he also, you know, still had plus raw power last season. His max ex ofilo was 112.7 miles per hour, 83rd percentile was just his average exit velocity was 18th percentile at 87.5 miles per hour. So my hope here is that he can tap into the raw a little more consistently. And I think it's the kind of thing that could make Thai France. I mean, really, he just has to bounce back
Starting point is 00:38:03 to 2021, 2021, 2022, when he was you know, kind of a must-start player in both head-to-head and roto, both seasons. He had 18 and 20 home runs, useful batting average in both. So, yeah, I think there's a chance for Thai France to get back to being a four-category contributor.
Starting point is 00:38:23 And I would have thought even without the drive line work, but now I think it just makes the regression, hopefully, a little more likely. I was thinking of an upside case here for Thai France, and what popped into my head was maybe like an Alec Bohm. And Alec Boem is going around pick 160. Thai France's ADP is 322.8. So if this works, he hits for good batting average Thai France, typically 280 with 20 home runs. That's kind of what we're expecting from Alec Boem, right?
Starting point is 00:38:50 So I don't think that's inconceivable for Thai France. Scott, let's go to you. Another sleeper from 2.0. Yeah, I like Ty France in theory, but part of the reason I'm not sure I'll ever be drafting him is because there's another first basement in that same range who I like more. And it's Anthony Rizzo. Yes. In my sleeper's 2.0, I mentioned Rizzo as the other sleeper first basement I like. There you go.
Starting point is 00:39:14 So Anthony Rizzo, I haven't had occasion to draft him yet, in part because I wanted to see if I wanted to see how it went when he got back to playing. games this spring after playing so much of last season with those post-concussion syndrome uh cognitive impairment was a phrase thrown around once he finally got re-examined in august and they revealed that he'd been playing with this this issue all this time um to give you the numbers he hit 172 with one home run for the 46 game stretch he was playing with the post-concussion syndrome and the 53 game stretch he was playing with the post-concussion syndrome in the 53 game stretch before that, Anthony Rizzo hit 3.04 with 11 home runs. So we're talking a night and day difference there.
Starting point is 00:40:00 And understandably, I mean, if his reaction time was slowed, he described it as having, it'd be like playing after having a couple of drinks the night before and just being kind of foggy and just not, not quite, not quite up to peak athleticism. And yeah, he couldn't catch up to pitches, clearly. So is he over it? Because sometimes when a concussion's that bad, it can just ruin your career. Well, he has a two-homer game this spring. So again, during that 46-game stretch where he was playing with the post-concussion symptoms, just one home run. He's already had a game this spring with two.
Starting point is 00:40:41 And he says he feels like he's gotten his superpowers back. He can see the ball the right way again. Everything sounds good for Anthony Rizzo. And here's the kicker. The Yankees acquired one soda this offseason. They're going to bat him second. They're going to bat Aaron Judge third. Two of the best on-base guys and all the majors there, and Soto and Judge.
Starting point is 00:41:05 Who's batting behind them in the fourth spot? D.J. Lemayhew? Anthony Rizzo. DJ LaMahey's batting in front of them, and I think it might be being overlooked as a result. But no, Anthony Rizzo's batting behind them. It might be the most primo RBI spot in all the majors. and we already know his power plays at Yankee Stadium.
Starting point is 00:41:23 And I think there's a ton of upside for where he's being drafted, which by Fantasy Pros ADP, 284th overall. Yeah, I agree completely on all of that with Anthony Rizzo. Again, the spot in the lineup is just huge, huge opportunity here for Anthony Rizzo, assuming that he's healthy, so far, so good here in spring. So sleepers, for me, kind of synonymous with undervalued players. and I do think maybe, even though he signed with the Dodgers this offseason, we still might be sleeping on Teoska Hernandez.
Starting point is 00:41:55 The ADP is 123, he's the 29th outfielder off the board, and he recently came out and said that he did not see the ball well while playing in Seattle, and the numbers backed that up. Last year at home, Teasca Hernandez hit 217 with a 643 OPS. On the road, he hit 290 with an 835 OPS, now going to the Dodgers in that lineup, in that ballpark, which is the second best ballpark for right-handed power over the past three years. One-year deal, it's not inconceivable that Teoska Hernandez just goes out and has a massive season.
Starting point is 00:42:30 30-plus home runs, chips in, you know, tennis steals, great counting stats in that lineup. And I don't think that the ADP fully reflects what the upside here can be for Teasca Hernandez. So I kind of buy the excuses from last year, and I am in at this cost. Yep. Chris, well, um. Good one. Anything you want to add, Scott? Sounds like.
Starting point is 00:42:50 No, I like it. All right. Let's go. Chris, back to you. Sleepers 2.0. Yeah, let's go with Colkeith, who is not on the level of even Jackson Merrill as a prospect, I would say. But I'm surprised at how reasonable the price has remained for Colt Keith, who signed an extension with the Tigers that pretty much guarantees he's going to be on the opening day roster. he's a he's going to make his debut as a 22 year old so he's not especially old and he just hit 306 with a
Starting point is 00:43:24 380 OBP and a 552 slugging percentage as a 21 year old at double a and triple a he had an OPS better than 890 at both levels and I yeah I don't know I think Col Keith I know it's not an ideal spot playing in Detroit it's still a tough park despite the fact that they move the fences in but it just feels like with the way hyped rookies tend to get pushed up, the fact that in a 12-team Roto League, Colkeith's ADP is actually, it's 283.2, or at least it was last week, at NFC when I wrote this, the fact that he's basically undrafted or late last round pick in a 12-team Roto League is,
Starting point is 00:44:09 I think, really surprising and unjustified. I think he's someone who should be being drafted in 12 team leagues. So I like Colkeith. Here is my issue with Colt Keith. And I did take him in TGFBI. But in a smaller league where I can sell out harder for upside, I just like Michael Bush so much more. I think he's more talented.
Starting point is 00:44:37 He certainly hits the ball harder. He certainly walks more than Colt Keith does. He's going to be playing in a better venue, Wrigley Field versus Camerica Park. Camerica Park looking at Keith's exit velocities. It may be a real problem for him. Bush may have more threats to his playing time in Chicago, which is part of the reason why I went ahead and took Keith and TGFBI. It's playing time in a deep league like that is a massive issue.
Starting point is 00:45:07 But Bush is on my sleepers list, which is part of the reason I'm bringing this up. I think people are sleeping on his upside in a way that seems laughable to me because he's been hyped as a, if only this guy could get called up kind of fantasy asset before. And now he actually has the job and he's being drafted outside the top 350 still. So yeah, I prefer Bush in leagues where you can afford to take a big swing. The one thing I would say is Bush is 26. Keith is 22.
Starting point is 00:45:39 So, you know, Bush's numbers at AAA last year were better than Cole Keith's, but they should have been. He was playing in the PCL. He was playing in the PCL is a 25 year old. But is quality of contact metrics. The average exit velocity is better than Colkeiths. It was like 90. Yeah, it was like 91 miles per hour. Keith was 89.
Starting point is 00:46:00 Yeah. The max and 95th percentile were very similar for the two of them. And that's the thing that I like about Colt Keith, and not even with the comparison to Michael Bush, who I also like and think is a very viable sleeper. And he was on my deep sleepers column because he's going super late. Like he's going outside the top 350 on average right now. But the thing I like about Cole Keith is at least to this point in his career and his development, he has been able to hit the ball in the air consistently. He's hit the ball to the pull side consistently.
Starting point is 00:46:31 And he hits the ball relatively hard for a player of his age. And he's been able to do that without sacrificing contact. Now, that doesn't mean he won't. sacrifice contact the major league level, but it's just to say that so far Colt Keith has held his own in a way that I think is pretty exciting for a player of his experience level and age. All right, Scott, you kind of mentioned Michael Bush in that analysis, but let's get another sleeper from you. Yeah, Brandon Lau, who might be the player who more than any other player. I'm just completely dumbfounded why he's going as late as he is.
Starting point is 00:47:13 Compared to what my initial rankings were, it's like he is going after players. By average fantasy pros ADP, Brandon Lau is going after Jonathan India, a part-timer with questionable power ceiling. Whitmerfield, another part-timer with no power. Luis Renhifo, another part-timer who doesn't do anything especially well. He's being drafted 27th among second baseman is Brandon Lowe, even though, you know, he had 21 homers just last year in his 436 plate appearances. Of course, he had one of the all-time great power seasons from a second basement in 2021, hit 39 homers, drove in 99 runs, 97 runs scored.
Starting point is 00:47:59 And if you pace out last year's number for Brandon Lough over the number of played appearances he got in that 2021 season, it's about 30 homers. So he is still arguably the best power hitter at the position. I think Nolan Gorman has an argument there. I think any of the top, well, I guess Moogie Betts would be the top second basement, if we're counting him as the second basement. But beyond Moogie Betz. There are other second baseman who could threaten for 30 home runs,
Starting point is 00:48:23 but I don't think there's any second baseman who, like, for sure overtakes Brandon Lau and power potential. He is at the top for that contribution at that position. Now, he has missed time with injury the past couple years, and there's a recurring back thing going on, hasn't been an issue this spring. And he, in fact, is saying, like, he feels as good as he did in 2021. The numbers have been there every single time that I am on the field.
Starting point is 00:48:57 So he is- Except for 2022, 100% true. 100% true, yeah. His manager, because you wonder, okay, Ray's Brandon Lousel, left-handed hitter, you know, are they just going to, is he going to be in and out the lineup too much? His manager, Kevin Cash, says,
Starting point is 00:49:12 when he's healthy, he gets MVP votes. So that's how he's viewing Brandon Lau. And it's worth noting for the time he was healthy last year, the last seven times the race faced a left-hander, Lowe was in the lineup for five of them. So he was, he didn't play against every lefty, but he was playing against most of them.
Starting point is 00:49:29 He was as close to a full-time player as the raise get. For some contacts, Joshua Lowe, the other extremely talented left-handed hitter, he sat one of their two playoff games against the lefty. Brandon Loud didn't. And the other thing, I know the back is a concern because it's been a recurring thing,
Starting point is 00:49:48 but when he came back after missing a month last season, over his final 61 games, he hit 248 with like an 822 OPS, it looks like, 32 homer, 189 run plus RBI pace over 150 games. It did not impact his production when he was on the field last season. Nope. And he also stole seven bases that, you know, he took advantage of the new rules.
Starting point is 00:50:14 That's like a 12 steel pace. Like he could make a contribution there too. But the point is even if you're worried about the health risk there, he's being drafted around pick 300. Like I said, outside the top 25 second baseman. He is a sense choice for your middle infield spot in a Roto league. I mean,
Starting point is 00:50:33 The only times I haven't targeted him is that is just because the league is too shallow and I fill that spot with somebody so good. But I try to get Brandon Lau everywhere I can because that price just seems absurdly low. And I think this is a good transition into my next sleeper who is Michael Garcia because I think they pair nicely together
Starting point is 00:50:53 of Brandon Lau or Nolan Gorman with Michael Garcia. So Garcia, we did our third base preview. I kind of brought up the upside case for this year's Nico Horner because I do think Michael Garcia could hit for solid batting average. He hits the ball hard for someone you might not expect, like just looking at him physically, but 91.8 average exit velocity last year,
Starting point is 00:51:15 50.6% hard hit rate. That ranked in the 93rd percentile. He has speed last year, 23 steals in the majors, and he plays on a team in the Royals that obviously is pretty aggressive with their hitters and lets them run the bases. And they're not talking about him potentially being the last. leadoff hitter for the Royal. So if everything comes together, man, like 270, 280 plus hitter,
Starting point is 00:51:39 the power is going to be lower. You know, you're hoping for like 8 to 10 home runs, something similar to what Nika Horner did last year. But 30 plus steals for where he's going outside the top 200 right now. What makes it kind of a weird fit is that he's third base. So if you get him as your corner, typically you want more power at the corner and then maybe you want some speed at your middle infield spot. So it's kind of a weird fit. what I've learned, like, trying to take Michael Garcia in drafts. But if you can pair him with a middle infielder who is for power, like a Brandon Lau or Nolan Gorman,
Starting point is 00:52:11 I think that that's a good pairing. And so I do like Michael Garcia a lot. And man, if he leads off, I think there's a pretty big upside here for Michael Garcia. Chris, let's go back to you. Who you got? Some more sleepers. This is one that you can't really do in a league where you don't have IL spots.
Starting point is 00:52:27 And, you know, even if you only have a couple of IL spots, but you should be looking at Jason Dominguez if you have some IL spots because he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. We may not see him for the first couple of months of the season, but he was really impressive last season. I don't necessarily mean the whatever eight games he played at the major league level last year, although he was very impressive. It was what, four home runs and eight games, I think is what the number was.
Starting point is 00:52:52 I think so. And his first swing of his career was a home run off, Justin Verlainer. But you just look at the totality of what he did last. last season as a 20-year-old. Jason Mingoes is still only 21 this season, despite the fact that people have been hyping them up, I don't know, since like the Nixon administration,
Starting point is 00:53:11 it feels like. He had 19 homers and 41 steals in 126 games as a 20-year-old, despite playing at AA, AAA, and the majors. 24.4% strikeout rate, given his age and advanced levels, isn't really that concerning for me.
Starting point is 00:53:29 So I think Jason Dominguez is someone who has significant five category, maybe four category upside because the batting average might be tough. But I just if you're looking for a way to spend a late round pick in a league where you've got IL spots to play with, I think Jason Dominguez absolutely needs to be on your draft board. And he doesn't really go drafted very often right now. So that's one to keep in the back of your mind is more like a deep sleeper. Scott, back to you for another sleeper. I just want to run through very quickly, some of my sleepers 1.0, because this is kind of the B team we're breaking out here,
Starting point is 00:54:05 and I want to make sure that the new audience doesn't miss out on the Primo sleeper picks. So on my initial list, I had Cole Riggins. I've talked about him a lot. You know, how dominant I think he is top 15 pitch or drafted more like top 30. Chris Sale, I think everybody's seeing this spring what the fuss is all about there. He never lost his swing and missability through the injuries, and now has the Braves' offense backing him. Vinny Pasquantino still very high on him through 38 games last year.
Starting point is 00:54:32 He was doing exactly what we hoped he'd do. And then his shoulder started bothering him. And it caused his exit velocity to tank, his numbers to tank. Surgery's happened. And he's healthy this spring. Vinny Pasquantino buy into him again. Carlos Rodon, a big part of what happened to him last year was his mechanics got all screwed up between the forearm issue and then some of the other health issues he was during with during the year back issue. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:54:57 and his velocity never went down. So I think Carlos Rodon can recapture his ace form. I love drafting Jackson Chorio. I think he has a spot. I think he could make an impact like Julio Rodriguez did as a rookie. I think Jackson Holiday has huge upside for where he's going. Wyatt Langford, if he can find a way into the lineup for the Rangers, which I think is doubtful.
Starting point is 00:55:18 But he would be part of that rookie trio as well. Nick Povetta made big strides with his control when he moved to the bullpen last year and then rejoin the rotation at the end of the year and flat out dominated for the red sox i think there's a lot of strikeout potential there for nick pavetta jamer candelarioo now in cincinnati the most homer friendly park i think his stats are going to his power is going to play up like never before and within the the reds infield glut because of the contract candelario sign i think he has one of the the best chances of playing every day um so he's going to have a lot of run production there too.
Starting point is 00:55:55 Mitch Garver is a full-time DH. I think he'll finally live up to his offensive potential, but still have catcher eligibility. Eric Fetty, who dominated in Korea won their version of Sy Young and MVP last year and completely remade his arsenal. 70% ground ball rate over there with a Logan Webb-like split change
Starting point is 00:56:16 and also a new sweeper that helped him get swinging misses. I think people are sleeping on Eric Fetty. So that's a one. I already mentioned a couple earlier in the show, but those are the holdovers from Sleepers 1.0. If I'm going to add tack on a new one real quick. This is part of 2.0. Joe Boyle of the athletics looks like a bat missing monster.
Starting point is 00:56:40 And look, he had great strikeout numbers in the minors too, but his walk rate was through the roof. It was over 7 per 9 for his minor league career. And so the A's got him for cheap from the Reds. He came up last year, made three starts for the big club, through 66% of his pitches for strikes. And so far has walked nobody this spring in two starts. His fastball's triple digits, his slider earns a 70 grade from baseball America.
Starting point is 00:57:03 Actually, the fastball and slider both do. So the stuff is there for Boyle. If he's suddenly figured out how to throw strikes, which the A's seemed to think he has, like he could be exactly the sort of miracle pitcher you're always looking to draft in the late rounds. It could be that for the rest of spring training, he walks a dozen batters. the sleeper appeal is ruined before the season even starts. But where things stand right now, Joe Boyle, the arrow is pointing straight up for me. So far through two starts for Joe Boyle this spring, zero walks, which like Edward Cabrara is exactly what we need to see from somebody like Joe Boyle.
Starting point is 00:57:40 Chris, we'll throw it back to you if there's anyone else you want to mention from Sleepers 2.0 and then maybe a quick roundup on your holdovers from Sleepers 1.0. I'll also just point out Joe Boyle. I don't know if you mentioned he added a sweeper this spring. He's working on that, yeah. Yeah. So you want a new sleeper for 2.0, right? If you have any left that you want to talk about. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:05 D.L. Hall, who I had Edward Cabrera on Sleepers 1.0. He made it to Sleepers 2.0 as well. I'm a big fan. But D.L. Hall is kind of the mirror image of Edward Capraer in a lot of ways. There's no questioning this stuff. He has a 35% strikeout rate in 125.2 innings at AAA and a 14% walk rate, which is just too high at AAA. I mean, like Edward Cabrera, his walk rates at AAA, I don't think we're ever that bad. So, D.L. Hall has a significant hurdle to clear in terms of being a viable starting pitcher at the major league level.
Starting point is 00:58:43 But he's going to get a chance this season. He's going to get a chance in spring. I don't think he's pitched in a game in spring. but he's been facing live batters on the backlots for the Brewer. So I would assume he's going to make his debut in the coming days. He did make his debut. He made his debut, Chris. Okay, yeah, how'd that go?
Starting point is 00:59:04 He threw two innings with one strikeout. I know, like, Reese Hoskin, some of the hitters who faced. Yeah, they were raving about him. We're raving about him. And their new manager, Pat Murphy's his name, right? The Brewer's new manager. Yep. He says he feels like he has ace potential.
Starting point is 00:59:20 So I don't think it's a question anymore whether Hall's in the rotation. It's just a question of will he want the walks enough? And it's a significant question, but if you're playing in a head-to-head points league, especially D.L. Hall should be drafted in all leagues because he is RP eligible.
Starting point is 00:59:36 He's got that significant upside. There aren't really, like he hasn't thrown a lot of innings necessarily, but I don't think there should be significant inning limitations. He's mostly been healthy over the past couple of seasons. It's just when he hasn't thrown big inning numbers. It's mostly because he's been pitching out of the bullpen over the past year plus. And so I think we could get 150 innings from DL. Hall if he stays healthy, possibly more.
Starting point is 01:00:00 And if he can get the walk rate to like 10%, you know, he might be able to get a K-minus walk rate of 20%. The strikeout rate upside is legitimately that high. So he could be someone who has like a Dylan C's like ceiling. and you can get him for free. I like drafting him in all formats, but especially those head to head points leagues. Okay. Any sleeper holdovers from 1.0 that you want to just quickly run through?
Starting point is 01:00:30 Yes. I still like Gavin Lux as a sleeper. I still like Sal Freelich as a sleeper. I still like both Andrew Abbott and Todge Bradley. I really like Max Kepler as a sleeper. I'm not even sure he should qualify, but his price remains very, very reasonable. Von Grissom less so because of the injury.
Starting point is 01:00:49 that has him in doubt for opening day, but I think he's still worth drafting. Chris Paddock. Alejandro Kirk, I'm kind of okay with him as a sleeper, but I'm replacing Henry Davis with him in my official mental sleeper rankings. Tim Anderson looked like Tim Anderson before his knee injury last year.
Starting point is 01:01:09 Tyler O'Neill, I love the move to Boston, Reed Detmer's and Luis Severino, different versions of bouncebacks, but I think there's potential for both Reed Detmer's and Luis Severino to bounce back as Sleepers this season. And I'll quickly wrap up with someone I'm going to add to Sleepers 2.0 is Mason win with the Cardinals. The ADP is 356.6. Just feels like such a clear post-hype guy.
Starting point is 01:01:32 He got called up late in the season last year. It looked awful offensively. He's an amazing defender. That glove plays. He's going to be in the lineup consistently because of that. And you look at what he did in the minors last year. Hit 288, 18 home runs, 17 steals. kind of gives off some like Bryson Stott vibes
Starting point is 01:01:50 about how he wasn't great when he first got called up and then had the huge year, the second year. I think maybe we could see something like that from Mason Wynn, who again is being drafted outside of the top 350. And some quick names who were in My Sleepers 1.0 back in January. So a long time ago, Bailey Ober, who since has risen up draft boards
Starting point is 01:02:09 quite a bit, Carlos Rodon, I know there's been some kind of worrying stuff about the giving up the home runs and live BP, but I still do think there is a lot of upside for him based on where he's going in drafts. Trevor's story, the first normal offseason for him since joining the Red Sox.
Starting point is 01:02:25 I do think that he can go 2020. Question of where the batting average winds up for him. Lars Neupar, I liked him last year. I like him again this year going just outside the top 200. I saw a report for Lars Neupar that he is focusing on elevating to his pull side, which I mean, he hits the ball hard. If he can hit it hard in that direction,
Starting point is 01:02:43 yeah, that would be good. Yeah, and I think the plan as of now is for Neupar to bat in the middle of the lineup. So he's kind of alternated between being their leadoff guy and hitting in the middle of the lineup, but obviously batting third or fourth would maybe help with some of that power
Starting point is 01:02:56 and the counting stats there for him. Jamer Candelario, for the same reasons you mentioned. Scott, Aaron Savali, I know he got blown up in his first spring start here on Monday, but I trust Tampa Bay. They gave up a lot to get him,
Starting point is 01:03:08 and I do think that they're going to help him kind of unlock that level that I've been waiting for with Aaron's. I want to fixate on Savali's spring number. personally. Yeah. Yeah. Also, don't fix it on his numbers
Starting point is 01:03:20 after the trade to Tampa Bay for last year. What's interesting is that his strikeout rate went up by 10 percentage points. So like the underlying numbers actually got a lot better. The surface level numbers were back, which again, don't, I wouldn't worry about those with Aaron Savali. Shota Imanaga, we've talked a lot about this
Starting point is 01:03:36 offseason. He was the number one in Stuff Plus in the WBC last year, came over from Japan, signed with the Cubs. Tyler O'Neill entering a contract year. I think his swing is perfect. for Fenway Park. Christopher Sanchez, we've talked a lot about. He's someone I do target a lot late.
Starting point is 01:03:51 And Henry Davis, again, we kind of talked about him earlier on. But yeah, he was in Sleepers 1.0. And all we need is that catcher eligibility. I think he'll get it by the end of April. I'll mention one last name who I put in 2.0, Luis Camposano, who is, I think, another catcher, one of like 17, not counting Henry Davis, who I'd be satisfied as my number one.
Starting point is 01:04:13 He tends to go a lot later than the other 16th. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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