Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts 1.0! (1/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 26, 2021

Before we get into it, we thought it made sense the great Hank Aaron as well as Kobe Bryant on the one-year anniversary of his passing. With that, who are our favorite baseball players of all time (1:30)? ... We have news and notes (7:21)! Is there a delay looming? No DH in the National League? Can Adam Ottavino earn saves with the Red Sox? ... What is the difference between a sleeper and a breakout in Fantasy Baseball (18:34)? ... Sleepers 1.0 (20:36)! Chris really goes off the radar with his pick while Frank and Scott are eyeing late-round pitchers. ... Breakouts 1.0 (33:06)! John Means Business! How good can Sixto Sanchez and Austin Riley be? ... Busts 1.0 (44:46)! All three fellas have a Top-12 SP as a bust plus Scott is not feeling Teoscar Hernandez. We wrap up with your questions, including one about the Marmol Strategy in H2H category leagues. Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Sleepers, Breakouts, and Bus, 1.0. Woo! Welcome to Fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, January 26th. Frank Stamphle joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. As always, before we get into all that, all the fun stuff throughout the podcast, why am I wearing a Kobe Bryant jersey while hosting a fantasy baseball podcast, huh? You might ask yourself if you're watching us on YouTube. Well, he is my favorite athlete of all time.

And of course, today is the one-year anniversary of the passing of not only Kobe Bryant, but his daughter and the rest of the victims involved in that helicopter crash that day. so I did want to just shine a light on Kobe Bryant and also just a bad job by me. Truly one of the greatest Hammer and Hank Aaron passed away over the weekend. So of course, rest and peace to Hank Aaron. Scott, I know that you are a big Atlanta Braves fan,

755 career home runs, all-time leader in both RBI and total bases. Two of the best to ever do it in their respective sports, both Kobe Bryant and Hank Aaron. So just wanted to honor those guys at the top of the podcast and ask both of you for your favorite baseball players of all time. Scott, anyone come to mind? Maybe it's Hank Aaron. Well, I obviously missed Hank Aaron's playing career. And so that's mostly what I'd be basing my

opinion on. My favorite is actually John Smoltz, who, for people listening, they may know him more as a commentator now. And may question why he's your favorite. He's your favorite broadcaster of all times, Scott. No, no, he's not. He's, I mean, he's fine. I think he does a good job, and I think people are too hard on him, as is typical for national broadcasters. But, yeah, he was just so intense when he played so intense.

And such a big game pitcher. And really the only one of the big Braves pitchers from the 90s that was a strikeout pitcher, you know, and that was always more fun to watch. It's probably a big reason why he seemed to step up in the big moments just by preventing contact. So he was my favorite. I also have a soft spot for Ryan Klesko.

I loved Ryan Klesko. Yeah, yeah. Obviously not the same stature. Anyone with a big open batting stance, I loved as a kid. Oh, and his was just so exaggerated. Like every part of his stance was exaggerated, like the way he rested the bat on his shoulder

and certainly the way he actually swung the bat where he looked like he was falling over every time. It's so fun to go online and watch. Ryan Klesko home run highlights. It's one of my favorite things to do. There's really been nobody I can think of who swung a bat quite like he did. And of course I'm showing my age here, but I'm currently Googling the Ryan Klesko batting stance.

So I can see what you guys are talking about a little bit before my time. It changed a lot over. It was somebody who was constantly changing his stance, but like he always had the exaggerated swing. Yeah. Now we're, see, we're already getting off topic. It wasn't quite Tony Batista, who has maybe the greatest swing in Major League history. If you guys don't remember, he's the guy who's basically facing the pitcher.

Yes. While he's hitting. But very good, Ryan Clasco. Chris, your favorite. One of your favorite baseball players of all time? Anyone? Anyone stand out among the rest? Just everything he, you know, his story, the fact that he came to Miami and played.

there. You know, my grandfather was a, was a Cuban refugee. He left Cuba during the 1950s. And so just, you know, what he meant playing in South Florida, the joy that he, he, you know, expressed. And then, you know, you could just tell there was nowhere he'd rather be than on a baseball field. And also, he's probably one of the five best pitchers I've ever seen in my life.

So it was just, it was an. an uncanny combination of, you know, right place, right time, right person in Miami. And, you know, his passing obviously was, you know, I still, there are still times when I'm like, I don't believe it actually happens still. And it's been, you know, four and a half years or something like that. Yeah. No, for sure. Definitely. Just electric on the mat. I remember one of, one of his best moments. It's just gifts. You see it everywhere with him and Troy Tula Witsky, Tulo just hitting that line drive and Jose

Fernandez catching it there. My favorite though, there's, he was facing, I believe, Kenta Maeda with the Dodgers and he was hitting. And, uh, Kenta Maita threw like multiple sliders that just made him look

completely ridiculous and he nearly fell down while swinging. And then he goes back to the dugout and he's like talking to, to his teammates like trying to like, I just, I thought it was coming at my head and it's just like ducking. It's, he was just, just such a joy to watch play.

Yeah, Jose Fernandez, that is for Chris. Vladimir Guerrero Sr. Just, you know, I didn't get to catch him early in his career. So I don't know of the Vlad that used to steal bases. But my recollection with the angels, the Rangers, the Orioles, being able to hit balls that bounce on the ground, hit balls that are up at his eyes. It's just no batting gloves. I loved watching Vlad Guerrero.

Just a complete force of nature. It's one of those ones where, like, people would, try to argue, all while the defensive stats were bad and his war was only 55, maybe he shouldn't be in the hall. And it's like, you cannot tell the story of Major League Baseball in the 1990s and 2000s without Vladimir Greer. You just cannot do it. And that alone, like there was just nobody like him. Yeah. And think about the era that he played in and he's one of the only guys that like we really don't have questions about. I mean,

unless I'm missing something, but I never heard his name brought up in any type of allegations or any, man, even if he did. It doesn't. He was. He was, was ridiculous and, you know, maybe he's a bad defender, but also his arm was ridiculous. It's one of the, like, if you're worried about Vladimir Guerrera's defense, you're missing the point. Just like, stop watching baseball. All right. So, well, he was minus 22 in FRRA from 2001 to 2000. It's like, shut up. Shut up, nerd. I love that you're played on the field, not the spreadsheet. Wow. I love that you're, uh, you're quoting something that could wind up being, an argument that you would use against someone else

on a different day. Maybe like Derek Jeter. It's fine to make that argument against Derek Jeter. Now that we spend seven minutes of the podcast talking about our favorite baseball players and athletes of all time, again, we are doing sleepers, breakouts, and bus 1.0. Today, have some news and notes, and we will get to questions today, I promise.

No matter what, when we get to the 50-minute mark, I'm stopping. No matter what's going on, we're answering questions today. News and notes. The big news Monday that came out was Cactus, League executive director, Bridget Binsbacher, hope I got that right, penned a letter to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred signed by local leaders from all eight Cactus League municipalities that noted it would be, quote, wise to delay the start of spring training until sometime in

mid-March due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in and around Arizona's Maricopa County. Binsbacher later told ESPN that the 10 facilities in Arizona will be ready to open if spring training begins when currently scheduled. Doesn't mean anything yet, but we keep hearing these rumblings about a potential delay.

So I don't know if either of you have anything to add here. It's just kind of a wait and see approach for now. Well, that was my initial take. Then I saw a tweet from Jason Stark, now the athletic, who basically said there's no way the players union is going to go for that. You know, it has to be, it's not something the league can just decide on its own.

It has to get the approval of the players union to delay the start of spring training, which would, of course, most likely delay the start of the season. And then you get into a situation of how many games do you play the players for again. And he's just saying the players union isn't going to go for that. So, you know, I have no reason to believe at this point that the, that spring training won't start on time, whether it's in Arizona or Florida. Things could change, obviously. We don't know what's going to happen,

but I want to be freaking out over this letter that was written. It is worth noting that the NBA has dealt with so many issues without a bubble right now. Obviously, I mean, we're still in the middle of a pandemic, even with vaccinations coming out. But yeah, I mean, we're, we'll talk about it again at some point, but there's assuming players are not vaccinated by the start of the season. Like, there's going to be things that happen, of course. We dealt with it last year.

Yeah, we dealt with it. It was honestly slightly less of an issue in baseball than I expected it to be, but what we're seeing in basketball does make me think that we're probably going to have, you know, more incidences, at least early on in the season. For sure. The other big news from Monday came from John Heyman, who reported the MLB Players Association, has rejected a plan for the Universal D.E.

and expanded playoffs. It was interesting how he framed this because he kind of pinned it all on the MLBPA, but we know that's not the case. It's obviously there's two sides to every coin and negotiation. But yeah, if there's no DH in the National League that obviously limits some spots for Marcelo Zuna and Nelson Cruz and potentially some other players, I missed this on yesterday's podcast, but Juerks and Profar resigned with the Padres over the weekend on a three-year deal. If there's no DH, the Padres have three spots available, second base left field and

right field for five players in Tommy Pham, Will Myers, Jake Cronoworth, Hacian Kim, who came over from Korea, and Jurexon ProFar. So, Scott, I mean, at some point, let's just say there's no DH. Are we kind of devaluing all of those players? Because I imagine they're going to just mix and match to keep everyone fresh, at least at those spots. Maybe even Craig Grisham loses time. I don't know. Yeah, maybe. I mean, there's a chance everybody loses a little bit of time

when you have two super utility players on the roster because that was the role Hassan Kim was supposed to fill. And so my reaction to Profar resigning with San Diego was to lower ProFar, was to lower Kim, was to lower Croninworth a little bit. Those are the only three guys I lowered because I think they will end up eating each other's bats the most, but it affects the whole lineup.

You know, maybe Wilson Myers comes back down to earth. Maybe Tommy Fam is just hurt all year. He's had so many injury troubles over the past couple of years and he's not getting any younger. ProFar got most of his playing time last year filling in for Fam in left field.

So maybe this is a reflection of how the Padres feel about FAM's health right now or just, you know, they want to be prepared in case it goes wrong again. Yeah, and it could definitely just be an organizational tactic that they're going for because they kind of have done the same thing with pitching. We keep wondering, oh, is Lament healthy? And they say, we just won

a lot of depth on the team. So maybe they want depth in the rotation. They want depth for the middle infield and for the outfield as well. So at some point, if there's no DH, you know, I'm going to have to think a little bit more about Tommy fam. Someone I do like, but if they want to keep them fresh, maybe he sits out once or twice a week. So that would obviously devalue him a little bit. I was thinking about other teams that this could affect no DH. Obviously the Mets came to mind and I tweeted about Dominic Smith, but he still penciled in to play left field. Sandy Alderson has said things along the lines of, well, we don't love him in left field, but I think his bad is just so good that they'll find a way to get Dominic Smith in. So I'm not completely worried about that. The Reds was the only

other team that kind of stood out to me because likely one of Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, or Nick Senzel, who, ironically enough I have as one of my sleepers, would lose time if there's no DH. So pay attention to the red situation as well. Adam Adavino was traded from the Yankees to the Red Sox on Monday. Adavino went from a 1.90 ERA in 2019 to a 5.89 ERA in 2020. He's had four straight seasons with a walk per nine over four, and his babib skyrocketed while his swinging strike rate plummeted this past season. Chris, any chance he steals some saves away from Matt Barnes? This is Ottavino. Yeah. I mean, if you're, if you're, you know, worried about the walk rate for Adam Ottavino, then it's kind of worth noting that Matt Barnes has had his own

issues with walks in the past. And so I think there's a decent chance. Adam Ottavino gets a chance to be the closer for the Red Sox at some point. I would bet on it. Partially, that's because he's really good. And partially that's because, you know, Matt Barnes is okay. You know, sometimes not particularly okay. Sometimes he looks really, really good. And also, he's a closer. And so, you should bet if any given closer, you probably won't lose money betting that someone else will be getting saved for some amount of time for that team in any given year. Yeah. And I believe I've seen somewhere that Alex Cora has been kind of non-committal. on Matt Barnes, like, yeah, he's the guy

because they just don't really have anybody else right now, but I believe it was 2019 where Barnes was expected to start as a closer, and he quickly, he lost it to like Ryan Brazier, and then it was Brandon Workman towards the end of that season. So whatever, Matt Barnes. Matt Barnes had a 4-3-0 ERA last year

and a 48-4-Fib. It's probably, like, Adam Avina is probably a better pitcher. Yeah, the 5.89 ERA for Aadivino doesn't tell the entire story. 3.78 X-FIP, 3.62 Sierra. So I think there's still something left there with Atovino. So monitor that for the Red Sox closer situation. That'll do it with news and notes.

I do want to quickly plug a few things. We've reached that point of the year where there is a lot, a lot of sports going on at once. NBA, college hoops, hockey. Hockey? Do you guys watch hockey? I don't know. It's the only sport that I can.

can't really get into because I didn't play it growing up. I'm not completely against it, but there's hockey. There's hockey as well. Of course, not to mention the NFL playoffs and golf going on, which is why we wanted to tell you about the CBS sports app and how it's not just the best scoring app for your phone, but it's also where you get breaking news alerts, stories by all of our CBS sports writers, including all of us here. So you can read our sleepers, breakouts, and busts, 1.0 articles on this app as well. They're standing, schedules, team pages, and all the sportsy digital stuff that you are used to. And of course, if there is a game airing on CBS, that means it's streaming on the CBS Sports app. Easy, right? Download it. Read download it if you've

got that little cloud logo next to it on your phone. And you know we love those five star ratings, so don't hesitate to drop one for the app. If you do, tweet us a screenshot along with a mailbag question for us to use on an upcoming episode of Fantasy Baseball Today. Thanks as always for your support. And if you want all of just our content, just a fantasy baseball content, delivered right to your inbox, free of cost, sign up for the Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter. Actually, by the time you're hearing this, you might just have one in your inbox. See if I can get that tonight. We're recording late at night. But if I can get to one, I get around to one, you will have a newsletter in your inbox with our first rounds of sleepers,

breakouts, and bust. And you can sign up for the newsletter, all of our newsletters at CBS at CBSports.com slash newsletters. Chris does great work with the fantasy football today newsletter as well. I agree. You should, you should. Sleepers, breakouts, and bus.

1.0. It's worth noting that we will do extensive podcasts for each of these as we ramp up. But we wanted to wet your whistle a little bit. let you know some of the players that we've got on our radar thus far. Wet your whistle. Wet the whistle. Yeah.

Yeah. I like that expression. I'm glad you used it. I think recently I said wet your appetite. I don't think that's right. No, it is. But it's a different. I believe that one is W-H-E-T.

Oh, and wet your whistle isn't? I don't think so. What is what? I've always thought it was like wet. I've always thought it was like wetting like because it's like drinking is like usually how it's that's what I think the microphone again.

So wet with W-H-E-T means sharpen the blade of. Sharpen one's desire for. Or that. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't think wet your whistle. I believe wet your whistle is just wet your whistle.

Okay. Like drink a thing. Because you, you know. So either one works. If it's dry, you don't get the, you know. Well, does whistle refer to a sound somebody makes with their

mouth in that case or does it refer to the mouth itself? I guess either way you could just be wetting your mouth is your whistle instrument. Okay. Oh man, we are not even 20 minutes in and we've had we've had some some great little rants already. All right. Before we get into the actual players, Scott, what is the difference between a sleeper and a breakout? Uh-huh. Well, I think so a sleeper's just any player who's not getting enough love and drafts. I think that's the simplest way to put it. Undervalued. Make sense?

Yeah. Yeah. Scott did not want to say yes. He's like, no. Because I think underappreciated, under respected, underloved. But not undervalued.

Undervalued. Well, no, I think you could describe it as undervalued. Thank you. Thank you, Scott. I think you could. I don't know why I'm being so harsh with that. Um, never mind.

I won't get into that. A breakout often includes sleepers as well. Like most breakouts, you could probably call sleepers as well because they're, you know, you're highlighting that they have the potential to be better than what they're being drafted as. Um,

but, you know, it's, it's hard to call some breakouts a sleeper because nobody's really sleeping on them, you know? or you couldn't really call a sleeper a breakout who you're basically saying is going to get back to the level he already reached before. Like a breakout also implies that they haven't done this thing

that they're about to do before. I will disagree there. Okay. I think it's just reach a new level regardless of if they've been there before. And I will always remember 2017 when John Carlos Stan hit 58 home runs. Here we go. I wanted to make him my breakout and everyone's like, you can't make him a breakout.

He's already broken out. I thought you wanted to make him a sleeper. Either way. He would have been both, but I think it was breakout. Since when do you follow rules, Chris? Like, why didn't it? Well, not anymore.

Yeah, not anymore. I guess now I have to. No longer the boss. So if RJ does want to make some rules, I guess I do have to follow them. All right. Until he sets those rules. I'm making a rule right now, Chris.

and that is you have to give me one of your sleepers. Do you have like a groaning or booing sound effect? Is it John Carlos Stanton? Don't do it. No, don't do it. John Carlos Stan. Oh, wait.

My sleepers are... I don't have it, but Chris, I do have this. John Carlo Nozipu Sto Paulo. So bad. And my sleeper picks are kind of all in that same vein of, you know, guys who have... have been established,

but I think are being undervalue coming into the season. And the thing about John Carlos Stanton, we've talked about it several times before, and Scott, feel free to doze off. Scott is so annoyed right now. He led the majors in batted ball.

Why, were you going to say John Carlos Stanton? No. Oh, okay. I just don't think anybody needs to hear that you like John Carlos Stanton ever again. But it's not just that I like him. It's not, I'm not some fan boy.

I'm not rocking a jersey. Okay. He led the majors and batted balls over 115 miles per hour. from 2015 through 2019, he had more than twice as many batted balls over 150 miles an hour as the number two guy, which is all to say there's been no signs of decline in his game. Yes, he can strike. He'll strike out.

And you can point to, oh, he's got a swinging strike rate of X percent, but that's always who he's been. And when you're talking about changing your viewpoint on a player, I want to know if I've learned something new about them. And in John Carlos Stanton's case, we didn't learn anything new about him in 2020. We didn't learn anything new about him in 2019. When he played, he was still good. He still hit the ball incredibly hard, harder than anyone in baseball. It's just he hasn't played much. But when you're talking about an ADP of 115 or 121.06 in NFC drafts right now,

that just screams undervalue. That screams people sleeping on him. If he plays 150 games, he's probably going to be a top 30 player. I just, I think it's just about guaranteed. And at this point, it's just you're, you're discounting him for the injuries and for something else. And I don't think that makes sense. Yeah. And Chris and I, we butt heads last year over John Carlos Stanton.

And that's when his ADP was. It was in like the 70 range, I think. It was, everybody, everybody butted heads with Chris over John Carlos Stanton last year. I was right. It was 63. His ADP was 63, according to the NFBC from last year. Now he's going past Pick 100.

He played a higher percentage of his games in 2020 versus 2019, and his ADP dropped 40 spots. So I don't really understand that. And I can actually get behind this, Chris. I think that he is undervalued, and it's kind of a similar situation to Carlos Correa, who I also was not on last year. He is one of my sleepers because I think that he is undervalued

in OPS over 900. two of his last four seasons has proved that he can be an elite player entering a contract year. And I think the hate has just gone too far for Carlos Correa now. So I'm with you on Stanton and I would throw Carlos Correa in that mix as well. Scott, you were going to say something. You say he played a higher percentage of his game, Stanton did in 2020 than 2019. But he, that's because he hardly played it all in 2019. He played only, he played a little more than a third of the season last year.

Yeah. Now he was around for the whole post season. And in between the regular season and postseason, I think it was 11 home runs. It was 30 games and, yeah, 10 home runs and 30 games. Okay, I thought it was even more than that. But that's, yeah, okay, you're right. That's really good.

Yeah, no, that is really good. I definitely believe he, I think last year I tried to make the argument he was showing signs of decline, and I don't feel that way anymore. And because the price tag is dropped, like it has for all DH-only players, I can get behind this pick a little more this year than I could last year too.

I'm more likely to fill that spot with J.D. Martinez, Jordan, Alvarez, Nelson, Cruz. So I don't think I'm going to have much Stanton. But I don't think it's like if you fill that spot with one of those guys, I don't think that forbids you from drafting stand because it's very likely he's going to gain outfield eligibility at some point during the season. If like J.D. Martinez or whoever you blocking him with doesn't. I mean, I don't think Alvarez or Cruz is going to gain. that, but Martinez good. Yeah, and it's worth noting that Stanton is going later than all of those other

util only names that you mentioned. So again, outside the top 100, and it was a super small sample size, as it was for everybody. It was only 23 games, but he slimmed down. He did things a little bit differently. Swinging strike rate went down. Strikeouts went down. More line drives than ever before. So do with that, which you will.

Even if you don't want to buy into it, he's still undervalued. Scott, your first sleeper. So I think I'm going to go with Griffin Canning here, which is obviously, a different range of sleeper. We're talking about no more than a late round pick for canning. But I think there was a lot of hype around canning at this time a year ago. And then remember he had that elbow trouble in spring training. And people were like, does he need Tommy John surgery?

And his value just tanked. Then the season started late. And he was there for the start of it. And people were like, okay, maybe we need to get back on board the Griffin Canning bandwagon. but then like he wasn't getting the whiffs at all at the start of the year, the slider. The whiff-tastic slider he showed in 2019 that made him a sleeper. It just,

he was still throwing it a lot, but it wasn't getting the whiffs. And he was getting some bad results. And so I think at that point, a lot of people just tuned out completely from Griffin Canning. But everything changed for him again over his last five starts. His swinging strike rate jump from 9.9 to 14. which is like opposite ends of the spectrum,

like bottom of the league versus top of the league in that particular metric. And along with that, his K per nine jump from 7.5 to 10.4, his ERA during that five-star stretch for what it's worth was 314. So it was pitching much better. The slider kind of came back during that stretch. It started getting whiffs again. But more than that,

like he developed a curveball in the meantime to kind of get by without the slider. And when he had both of them working, like, it just, it just became a pretty special arsenal, even better than it looked like at this time a year ago. So I think Griffin Canning may be on the verge of taking off. You know, I think he proved in regaining his slider and throwing it with conviction again toward the end of the year that his elbow is healthy at this point. And, you know, no cost to getting him. Yeah, I think the big thing that stands out there is if he's, he can sustain the gains he made with that curve on from 2020 and get back to the success he had with the slider in 2019 when he had a 45% whiff rate with it. Yeah, it could be, you know,

a really devastating combination for a guy who, you know, already does do a pretty good job of getting strikeouts, but could, you know, take a leap into the 10K per 9 range. Yeah. And he had some prospect pedigree. I remember two years ago when he got called up. were making a big deal about him and rightfully so the angels need him to be good I mean they're bargain basement hunting if that's a thing for pitchers again they sign Jose Kintana they have not signed Trevor Bauer yet which I think would probably be a great fit for them but they're gonna need Griffin Canning to be really good and you know you spoke up the curveball and the slider Scott and according to Van Graves his change up was much better they

they have these pitch values. His changeup was better last year than much better last year than it was even in 2019. So in conjunction with all those other things, if this change up, which he throws around 15% of the time, it's, you know, it adds to the repertoire. We're talking about potentially four pitches for Griffin Canning. So yeah, I definitely think a named watch, the ADP4 canning is 266.5 over on Fantasy Pro. So basically free one of your last round picks. And I'm going down that route as well, Scott, with one of my sleepers here. I'm going with nasty Nate Avaldi. People, I'm sure many people have fatigue over Nate Avaldi at this point, but just one of these guys, I can't quit. Throws extremely hard. He's changed the pitch mix a couple

of times the past few years. Has a cutter, has a few other breaking pitches as well. But in 2020, 9.7K per 9, 1.3 walks per 9, both career best, supported by a 34% chase rate, 13% swinging strike rate for Nathan Avaldi. His 22.6% K-minus walk rate would have ranked 12th among starting pitchers had he qualified, ahead of names like Luis Castillo, Zach Rankie, and Dylan Bundy. Avaldi finished the season with a 3.72 ERA. That included a start in Yankee stadium where he allowed eight earned runs. If you take away that start, he had a 2.51 ERA. So I'm chasing it.

I'm chasing the dragon that is Nathan Avaldi. I don't know if you want to call Nathan Avaldi a dragon, but Scott, who would you rather have between those two? Avaldi or Canning? I'd rather have Canning. How about you, Chris? Once a Marlin, always a Marlon. Remember that.

I would think I have Avaldi a little higher. I do like him quite a bit. Yeah. He's such a weird pitcher because he's one of those guys who throws really, really hard, but doesn't really get the kind of results that you'd like to see with the fastball. But, you know, last year, he did last year. He did last year.

1, Wobah against the fastball. Ex-Wobo was 311. So maybe you can point to a little bit of bad luck there. But, you know, I think the big thing has been the development of the cutter over the last couple of seasons. And that seemed to really help him take a step forward in that 2018 season when he was, was it 2019 or 2019 when he yeah it was 2018 2018 when he won the world series with the Red Sox

you know got the big extension in the offseason and you know I think he still looks like that guy I think that was 2017 actually right that they won the World Series he didn't no he was traded to the Red Sox in 2018 you're right now he didn't pitch in 2017 yeah my bad so you know obviously

injuries have been a significant issue for him in his career. And so, you know, that's always a concern. But as a late-round flyer, I've ended up with Havaldi in a cut in, I think at least one of the drafts that we've done so far. So, you know, I'm there with you. Just another name on that list for me. For my top 30, then whatever, your last five rounds, Nate Avaldi, Griffin Canning, James and Tyone's probably going to move up a little bit now. But just a lot of, players in that range. I'm blanking on a few other names, but there's a lot of guys that I like. Also, like Brady Singer, John Means, Jordan Montgomery. They're all going super late in draft. So excited about some of those names. We're going to take a quick break when we return. We'll hit breakouts here, fantasy baseball today.

We're back here, and we have breakouts. And leading off for us is Scott White. Scott, your first breakout you'd like to talk about? Not John Carlos Stanton. No, I think I'm going to go with another late round pitcher, one you just mentioned actually because this might be my like if we do a players i love segment on valentine's day i don't know if we're going to do that this year but if we do i think i'm leaning toward picking john means business i was trying to think it the best time to fit that in yeah no john

showed down john means showed down the stretch last year that john means business because i mean from the start of the year, his fastball velocity was up two miles per hour. But like, it was easy enough to ignore because he was pitching like crap. He had an 8-10 ERA over his, how many starts was it? Yeah, he was pitching awful at the start of the year. But then, like, suddenly it kicked in. His final four starts. His swinging strike rate went four. from, actually it was his final, yeah, sorry, I'm losing, I'm getting mixed up in my numbers here. So, okay, it was the first six starts where he had an 810 ERA, and he had an 8.7 swinging strike rate during that stretch. And then over his final four starts, it became a 15.7% swinging strike rate, which is like Garrett Cole territory.

And he was just unbelievable. His K-per-9 went from 5.4 in the first six to 11.4 in the final four. His final four, his, the IRA went from 810 to 152. And like, it's just like he figured out how to make that velocity work for him. His change up was this great swing and miss pitch. He's always had fantastic control. Like that, when John Means has been successful in the past, it was mostly on the strength of that, on the strength of his control.

And he wasn't much of a bad miser at all. But like, he showed this never before seen upside with the strength. strikeouts that like, I don't know. I'm thinking like, remember when Eric Bedard just became this crazy strikeout pitcher? You probably don't, Frank, but a lot of people listening might remember that. And I feel like I could see John Means going down at St. Pat, except with this excellent control too. And I don't know. I think for the price, I'm willing to bank on him making a big splash this year. Yeah, I'm big on John Means as well. You can go back and listen on demand. We had Alex Fast here on the podcast. great work over at pitcher list. He's been on MLB Network, a few other places as well, ESPN. And he's

an Orioles fan, so he follows them very closely. And he told us that either right before the season started or as the season started, John Means' father passed away. And that can be a very easy reason for why he got off to such a slow start. I mean, we have to remember baseball players are human as well. But yeah, final four starts really flashed some of that upside for means. He had 30 strikeouts to just three walks during that span. And against the Mets at City Field at Inggy Stadium against the Tampa Bay Rays at home and then in Buffalo, which was a hitter's haven against the Blue Jays. So these weren't just gimmies. He was pitching in tough venues against really good lineups and the fastball velocity was also up two ticks last year,

up to 93.8 miles per hour. So a lot to like about John Means. I personally would take him over both Avaldi and Griffin Canning. Some people might be worried about pitching in the AL East, which is, makes sense. But if he's this good, I don't think it really matters where he pitches. Chris,

a breakout, unless you have anything you want to add on Means. I will just make a quick little math joke and say he is an exceptionally accurately named player. Mean, it also means average in math speak. That's what I thought. you're going for. So there you go.

So he's an average picture. That is my contribution. He's not very good. Yeah. Yeah, I don't, I don't like a recurring theme for me is going to be don't overreact to 2020. And that's especially true when we're talking about small samples of the small sample. And in his case, I just think you look at the track record. He's got a 397 ERA and 202 innings.

And that's with a 252 babup. And he wasn't exactly a guy in his minor career who, consistently ran super low babbitt. I'm just, I'm not sure that's in his skill set. To be fair, if somebody ended,

if a pitcher like means ended a full length season with four starts, that overwhelming, accompanying a velocity spike, I could probably still be talking about. He'd be Joe Musgrove. Chris, are you going to trade me in Dynasty or what?

Of course. Not for Wanderfako. No, no. Give me a breakout. But Sixto Sanchez, and he's a really interesting pitcher because he's the kind of guy, a little native Aldi like, where you watch him pitch and you're like, how does this guy not strike everyone out? And I think Sixtho Sanchez, you know, has even better stuff. You know, 99 mile an hour fastball, sinker and four seam, really good change up. The change up made a big leap last season.

and, you know, two decent breaking balls. And the thing I like about Sixtho Sanchez is he seems very safe. He's, I think he's going to be, you know, as a floor, kind of like a Jose Burrios or Kyle Hendricks type, a guy who doesn't get a ton of strikeouts, but who limits hard contact, limits free passes, and generally pitches deep into games because he pitches so efficiently. However, because that stuff is so good

and because he is so young, I think there's a chance that he takes a significant leap forward. And, you know, in terms of, like, he's been, you know, pretty much a top 15,

top 20 prospect the last couple of years. And I think before that it was like top 40, but the biggest questions weren't really, you know, can he be good enough? It was, can he stay healthy? Can he remain a starter?

Because he's, you know, a smaller guy. But I think, you know, what he showed last season, pitching so efficiently, pitching so effectively. I really think there's a chance that he takes a leap and I think he could be a top 15 starter.

He doesn't have to be an 11K per nine guy to be that kind of starting pitcher either because of the contact suppression and because of the control. I think he could be someone who walks or strikes out a batter per nine but pitches so efficiently otherwise that he's one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Maybe he figures it out in terms of, of generating whiffs. I don't know if it'll happen right away. I know that the highlight of his season was when he struck out 10 against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 28th. And then over his final five starts, his K-per-9 was just 6.3.

So I don't know if that's a sign of things to come or not, but I know that his strikeout rate was just kind of pedestrian in the minors. Chris, I wanted to ask where he ranks among other youngsters, I'll call them, that are kind of going in the same range. for example, Ian Anderson is going about 20 picks higher in ADP.

Like, would you take 6-0 over Ian Anderson in a vacuum or how do you feel there? Let me find my rankings and then I can answer these questions. Well, in the meantime, I'll ask Scott. Scott, would you take 6-0 Sanchez over Ian Anderson? I have them back-to-back in my rankings but I have Ian Anderson ahead.

Good man. Homer. Braves versus Marlins here on the podcast. Ian Anderson versus 6-0 Sanchez. Yeah, definitely. Definitely different pitchers, the two. Ian Anderson, I think, has higher strikeout upside, but also will walk a lot more batters than Sixthel Sanchez will. And the price is a little bit higher because Ian Anderson looked fantastic in the postseason.

You know, first time he's been there, biggest stage going up against, I think he faced, you know, the Dodgers a few times and he looked apart. So I would take Ian Anderson over 6th as well. Chris, did you find those yet? I'm just... I have Ian Anderson just a little bit. ahead of 6tho. How about 6tho versus

Jesus Lazardo? I have Lazzardo ahead of him. How about 6tho versus Julio Arias? I have 6tho ahead of Uliore Arias. Okay, he's going two spots ahead of him in ADP, so it seems like you're

probably in the right range. Again, that is 6tho Sanchez. Scott, did you give us a breakout already? I'm losing my mind. I did. It was John Means. All right. So that means I'm left, and I will tell you guys, I've referenced his name a few times here on the podcast the past couple of weeks.

Austin Riley, big fan of Austin Riley. This upcoming season, we all remember what he did in 2019. Big prospect, has the power, hits 14 home runs, first two months, and then just falls off the face of the earth. finishes 2019 with a 36% strikeout rate. But what I really liked was that he failed. He got knocked down. in 2019, and he came back in 2020, small sample size, short in season, whatever it might be, but he progressed, and that's really what you want to see from a young player. He lowered

the strikeout rate to 23%, which is right around league average. The walk rate went up. He did this while hitting the ball harder. He had a higher average exit velocity in 2020 versus 2019. His XBA and expected slugging percentage were both higher than his actual batting average and actual slugging percentage. So I just think if he takes that approach of making more contact and kind of blends it in with the power, you know, maybe the strikeouts

come back up a little bit. But if he puts those two things together, I think we could see like a 270, 25, 30 home run season in the middle of a really good Braves lineup. And he's going outside the top 200. So big, big thing of Austin. Yeah, I mean, you saw what that lineup did

for Marcelo Zuna and his counting stats. You know, if Austin Riley, he's not going, I don't think he's going, going to be as good as Marcelo Zuna was last season. But, you know, if he can be a 270 hiter and he can hit, you know, 30 home runs, which given the raw power that he has, should be, you know, relatively easy if he's making the kind of contact he was last season.

You know, it's not having the question that he could drive in 100 runs in this lineup. I think Riley probably has like 40 homer upset. I mean, he got the same, I think it was a 70 grade. Most scouts gave him on the 20-80. scouting scale 70 grade for power, which is like, you know, Pete Alonzo level power.

But, you know, that's obviously just, in theory, what he could do, and we'll see if he does it. But I like him as a breakout too. And he's, you know,

played something close to, you know, he had 503 played appearances, so a little less than a full season. And he has 26 home runs and 76 RBI. And that's width, you know, that,

you know, overall pretty mediocre to bad 2019. Yep. And they've already said that he is going to be the starting third baseman for the team. So, projection systems like him a lot too. They all have them around 30 home runs,

good counting stats. I'm a fan, big fan of Austin Riley. Bust, let's end with some busts here before we hit some questions. I notice we all have a top 12 starting pitcher by ADP, not by rankings, because Scott does not have Walker Bueller inside his top 12.

But we, between us three, Chris has Trevor Bauer as a bust Scott has Walker Bueller as a bust and I have Max Scherzer as a bus but I did think about Walker Bueller I was flip flopping between those two Scher and Bueller I'm probably not going to own either one but Scott would you like to

talk about one of uh would you like to talk about Bueller or potentially a different bust it's up to you well I've talked about pitchers only so far so maybe I should talk about a hitter here I will just say my concern for Bueller has nothing to do with his skill level and everything

to do with the way the Dodgers handle him and how that they might even go more extreme after a year when he threw just 60 innings or so. But the one I want to highlight is to Oscar Hernandez, who is actually the bust pick I'm most confident about. Bad Scott. Bad, bad Scott. Well, here's the thing. He was very productive last year.

Yes, he had never shown anywhere near that productivity before. What he had showed before was the ability to hit the ball. hard. It went to another level last year, which is what allowed for him to be so productive, but it went to a level that is kind of difficult to believe. It looked like just a hotter version of Teoska Hernandez, basically, which isn't so hard to conceive, considering he played only about 50 games. I mean, he could just be really hot for that stretch of time. This is especially true since he struck out at a 30.4% rate still, which is awful. It takes a very special type of hitter to succeed in spite of a strikeout rate that high.

It takes one who hits the ball so hard that he's an outlier in terms of how hard he hits the ball, which is what happened for Hernandez last year. But I just looking at the track record and considering how short the season was and considering he didn't show any skills improvement otherwise, I think he's going to turn back into a pumpkin this year. I think there is a, sorry, go ahead. And I don't want any shares of him. Go ahead.

I've got him on my bus list as well. And I think he's a good example of something that I've talked about in the past where we have the traditional numbers and then we have the traditional advanced numbers. And then we have all these like batted ball and pitch velocity and exit velocity and all this stuff that like seems like it measures skill. You know, it gets us closer to being able to actually measure, you know, the scouting grade stuff and the actual skill level of the player. And so I think there is an assumption that that's more.

static that you can't like you can get hot and have a 360 babb and fake of 300 average and I think there is to a certain extent an assumption that you can't fake hitting the ball as hard as Tiaska Hernandez did and that's true he did hit the ball that hard but just like production ebbs and flows these skill level things ab and flow sometimes you're just locked in sometimes you just hit the ball harder, sometimes you don't strike out. And when, when I'm looking at, you know, the 2020 C and then trying to figure out, should I change my opinion on this player based on what we saw in 2020? The, you know, like I said with John Carlos Stan, it's did we learn something new about this person? And in Toscar Hernandez's case, we didn't really. We knew he was

super athletic. We knew he could hit the ball hard. We didn't care about it that much because he struck out too much and didn't, you know, make the most of that skill set. Maybe the 53 games or 47 games, whatever he played last season, represents him figuring it out. But, you know, his ADP is close to 100, I believe. And in that range, we're talking about. 72.7, Chris. Yeah, way more than 100. Yeah, like that, you're paying for, like, this is who he is now.

like he's a 280-ish hitter with 25 home runs and 12 stolen and like well no you're you're paying more for like 30 35 home runs probably yeah um and he could be that he certainly has the it's the skill is there but the larger sample size of his career tells us that he just got hot and i think this is one of those cases where we're kind of missing the force for the trees as a, you know, fantasy community. Fantasy philosopher. That's Chris with the great sayings as always. But, man, I'm torn on T. Oscar Hernandez. I'm kind of on the fence here, but I'm leaning more with you guys that it's a big price tag to pay at that current ADP. I don't really think that there's that much of a difference between him and his

teammate, Lordez Gueriel, and Gueriel's going 23 picks later on average. So you can get him two rounds later. I think that he's proven it's not really a fluke at this point. Like Lordus Guerrille is just a really, really good player. He doesn't hit the ball as hard. He's not as flashy, but he's going to hit in the middle of the lineup, and he makes more contact than Tioskers. So that's my take for today.

I will, in a vacuum, I will take Lordis Gouriel over Tiaska Hernandez in 2021. Chris, quickly, a minute or less. Give me one of your bus. Trevor Bauer. I'll quote my guy. I tried this. Canobey. I tried this,

captured. What are we doing? How did this happen? We're smarter than this. We've done this before with Trevor Bauer. And yes, he was really good in 2018. Yes, he was really good in 2020. That's two of the last three seasons.

But there's a little bit of luck involved in 2020, which will happen when you have a 173 ERA. But his peripheral suggested more like a low to mid-3s ERA. Obviously, we know he's combustible. I think he's actually someone with a really high floor. I think there's very little chance that Trevor Bauer goes out there in 2021 and is a complete bust. It just doesn't give you any value.

And so that makes him at the starting pitcher position a relative rarity. But we're drafting him as a top four starting pitcher based on, you know, like we've done this before. Based on spinning. We saw him bust out in 2019. I think he's capable of this. but we're drafting him at, you know, basically at his ceiling now. It's based on spin rate, Chris.

That's ultimately, when you dive into the numbers and you try to figure out what change for Trevor Bauer year over year that made him so good, he led all of baseball with spin rate on his fastball. This was a fastball that had a 151 batting average against a 185 Babbup and a 542 OPS. Yeah, it was great. Yeah, his Babbup overall was 215.

it was 294 for his career. ERA in his last four seasons. 173, 448, 221419. Maybe he's just this good and he's this awesome and he's going to make me look foolish again. I will say if he goes to a team

that lets him pitch every fourth day, he's probably the number one pitcher in fantasy. I mean, if especially in a head-to-head points league, if he actually does try to pitch every fourth day and doesn't get hurt, he's going to run away with the best starting pitcher number one starting pitcher, even if he has like a 380.

Just that that's how significant that difference in volume will be. I'm skeptical of it. But that potential is there. Yeah. I worry about him as well. And the thing, you know, nothing's ever static with Trevor Bauer. You know, we talked about this heading into 2019. He tinkered his way to being an elite pitcher in 2018.

He tinkered his way out of it in 2019. There's always the risk that that's going to happen as well. I'll just quickly mention Max Scherzer, who I have as one of my bust. He's 36 years old, ADP of 27. So you're getting him at a bit of a discount last year. He was a borderline first round pick. Now he's an early third round pick. But the walks were up over three walks per nine.

That was his highest since 2010. The swinging strike rate still really, really good for him and higher than the league average, 14.7%. But that was his lowest percentage since 2014. he has the neck and the back injuries in the past as well for Scherzer. So I'm worried about all three of those pictures that I mentioned. Bauer for Chris has him as a bus. Scott has Bueller and Scherzer.

So within the first two or three rounds, you're looking for pitchers to avoid. Those are the three that I would be looking at personally. Want to hit some questions here. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Continue to send those in. We do have a lot coming in right now. and I will answer some of those individually myself when I can.

But it's also, when you're sending in keeper questions or dynasty questions, just try and limit it to whoever you're actually thinking about keeping and try not to send your entire team just because it will, it's more likely for us to choose, for me to choose that question to put on the podcast if there's less names. I'm just being completely honest. So continue to send those emails in. Just be cognizant of that.

This one's from Tyler, 12 team, Roto League, $100. salary cap draft, not an auction anymore. Get to keep up to three players. Lineup has four outfielders, a corner and middle infielder, five starting pitchers, and three relief pitchers. Only one bench spot, interesting. Corbyn Burns for four bucks. Max Fried, $6.

Kenta Maeda, $4. Jesus Lazzardo, $8. Brendan Lau, $2.00. $2.00. Danes B. Swanson, $2. So out of these seven names, you have to keep three. Scott? Corey Seeger, Kinta Maeda, and, man, that one bench butt makes things weird. I think one of the pitchers, but who's liable, you know, they're all going to have workload issues.

So I'll just say Corbyn's because that's the one I ranked the highest. So, yeah, Corey Seeger, Kintamaida, Corbyn, Burns. Yeah, I would agree with that. I have Burns ranked higher than Freed, and he is cheaper for Tyler. So let's go with that. This one's from Mark. My fantasy baseball bucket list includes trying out the Mar-Mole strategy in a real league. So for those who play in head-to-head category leagues, which at times we are a little bit

neglectful towards, but whenever we talk about Roto or Categories League, more often than not, that means we're talking about head-to-head categories. Unless you play in a head-to-head categories league that includes walks or on-base percentage or total bases, if that's the case, then you might want to use our head-to-head points rankings. But the Marmold strategy is in a head-to-head category league with either no weekly innings minimum or a low one. You use your first 10 picks or so on hitters.

You don't draft a single starting pitcher unless your league requires you to do so. And if you must draft a starting pitcher, target ones late that have innings pitch concerns, but good ratios. from rounds 11 on you focus on remaining closures high end set up relievers with strong ratios

you punt wins and strikeouts but your offense is theoretically great and you should win ERA whip and saves most weeks so Chris I'll go to you for this one your thoughts advice tips on the best way to execute

the Marmole strategy or is it against the quote integrity of the game no I mean, you know, if the raise can do it, I guess you can do it. You know, if it's within the rules of the game, there's nothing, there's no reason not to. I think that the best advice you can give for executing this strategy is actually execute it. It is, it's, it's a lot like going true ZERRB in a fantasy football draft where you're going to start getting really antsy.

and you're going to start, you know, you might take a peek at your projected stats and you might start to panic a little bit. You can't do that. You have to execute the strategy and realize that coming out of the draft when you look at your team, there might be holes. You know, you might look at your pitching and because you're so used to having five or six starting pitchers, you might, you know, start to freak out a little bit and think that it's not going to work. it's actually a very viable strategy. It's one that can work in a head-to-head categories league especially, and you've just got to commit to it.

You can't, this is not the kind of thing that you can go half in. You have to go either all in or don't try it. That's true. And I do think it can work. But I want to point out that it's named the Marmel strategy after a relief pitcher named Carlos Marmal, who peaked about almost 15 years ago. It's a 15-year-old strategy.

And the landscape of the league was very different back then. And I just don't think it's like the landscape was such that there was more differentiation between hitters than there is now. And I don't think investing your first 10 picks in hitters guarantees you as much dominance in those categories as it did then. So I wouldn't do it. That's just my two cents. I think one of the biggest things about it though is it is one of the,

is one of the few ways that you can really target stolen bases and not have to not feel the sacrifice that you're making when you're targeting and at Alberto Mondesi. I will say, Chris, you said don't go like half in when you do it. Usually for me in head-to-categories leagues, and I don't play in a lot of them, maybe one or two per season,

but I think I kind of use like a pseudo version of this. I usually punt steals. I just draft, I try to draft high batting average, high home runs. And every time someone hits a home run, they're giving you a hit, a run, and an RBI. So I focus on those four offensive categories, fade steals. And then on the pitching side, I'll try to, I'll target two aces within my first four or five picks. And then I'll just wait and I'll take some closers and high end relievers.

But usually have three closers and maybe two or three other high-end relievers that are just constantly racking up stats for me throughout the course of the week. And then I'll just pick up some, whatever, two starters or streamers. But you still kind of have that chance at wins because you have those two aces at the top. So it's kind of a pseudo-marmole strategy, but not really. Another strategy part of it is it does matter whether you're playing in a one win per week or 10 games per week, head-to-head categories format. And by that, I mean, if you win five categories, you tie one and your opponent wins four, if you go five, four and one in that strategy, I think it's a little harder to justify this strategy because you're going to end up being pretty middling.

I think if you just get one win a week and you can figure out a way to dominate five categories, it's a lot easier to get away with this. We're going to wrap there. For Scott and Chris, I'm Frank. They're going to listen and watching fantasy baseball today. I will let you know that on Wednesday, Danny Vietti and Will Middlebrooks will have AJ Preller

from the Padres on the podcast. So definitely going to want to listen and watch that podcast as well. We will be back on Thursday. Bye-bye.