Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts 1.0! Target Luke Voit & Fade Jazz Chisholm (1/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 27, 2022

How does one define a sleeper, a breakout, and a bust (1:00)? ... Why is Luke Voit going so late (5:35)?? Everybody is sleeping on Jo Adell (11:55). ... Will Connor Joe lead off for the Rockies (16:22)? ... What is Lane Thomas' upside (20:28)? ... Can Jon Gray put it together with the Rangers (24:34)? ... Ranger Suarez was really, really good last season (29:09). ... Will we see a better version of Eduardo Rodriguez with the Tigers (36:20)? ... Willy Adames was awesome last year and is still going too late (40:10). ... Will Andrew Vaughn bounce back (43:25)? ... What will Shane McClanahan's workload look like (45:15)? ... We wrap up with our biggest busts, starting with Jazz Chisholm (49:00)! ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Serafeas is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

It's that time. Sleepers, breakouts, busts 1.0. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, January 27th. I am Frank Stamphill joined. As always, by Scott White and Chris Towers. Hello, Scotty. Stop me if you've been asked this before. But how would you describe the difference between a sleeper and a breakout? Yes, and the age-old question, even my own definitions of these two terms evolve based on convenience.

I would say that there's an element of value to both. I think you could broadly classify all breakouts as also sleepers, but probably not the other way around. I think with breakouts, there's an element of this guy has never done this thing before. He's breaking out, reaching a new threshold. For me, I've added a distinction to sleepers just to keep the category from becoming overbroad that people have to genuinely be sleeping on this player, which normally means they tend to be lower-end.

They tend to be lower-end players, players that go late in drafts if they're drafted at all. So my sleeper list, it kind of makes my sleeper list less exciting, but I have a lot of different sleeper-ish-type lists that I debut throughout the pre-season. So I'm okay with that. I do have Justin Verlander on my sleeper list because, you know, I think the idea of sleeping on a player can mean you're just,

you're not drafting him in a way that acknowledges the full extent of his upside. And I think that's absolutely happening with Justin Verlander now. So it doesn't, they're not exclusively low-end guys, but they tend to, it tends to be a lot more low-end guys for me. Breakout, the extent of the discount may not be as much, but, you know, in addition to having that that kind of first time element going on with them. It's also the idea that they're not being drafted based on the extent of their upside.

Just, you know, they may be valued more than the sleepers are. I kind of think that sleeper and the term undervalued, undervalued are kind of synonymous at this point. So, I mean, that's not really dissimilar than what you just said. You know, breakout, maybe they have more league-winning potential or they're going to do something

that we've never seen them, do before. That's basically what I look at. The difference is between the two. Hello, Chris. How would you describe a bust? I think it depends on what time of year. You know, when I write my first bust column a couple weeks ago,

it wasn't necessarily, here are 12 players who I think are going to be bad this season. It was, here are the 12 riskiest players among the highly drafted players at each position, that kind of thing. And then once we get closer, I'll narrow it down to, these are 10 players I'm not buying, you know, who aren't worth their, their price. That's, that's essentially how I look at is just, they're not worth the price that you have to pay to get them either because of risk or perceived lack of upside or whatever, you know, it may be. But I think in, in all of these, you know, it's, it's kind of like the, you know,

the Supreme Court. I can't define it, you know, or I should not today attempt to further define the kinds of materials I understand to be embraced within the shorthand description, sleepers breakouts and bust. And perhaps I could never exceed an intelligibly doing so, but I know it when I see it. It's that kind of thing. Like, like everybody's definition is different. The one I'll always hang on to is when I let my coworkers talk me out of John Carlos Stanton as a sleeper in, or a breakout in 2017, I believe the year he hit 58 home runs.

And it was like, well, he's already broken out. He can't. And it's like, yeah, but he's being discounted. He's like, for me, breakout is he's going to take it to another level, whether it's from a starter to a star or a bench guy to a starter. Or if, like, bouncebacks, I think are breakouts also. And so it's all, it's all nebulous and it's,

it's mostly just a way to feed the never-ending content mill. And a way to talk about players that we like and dislike and all those. It's, you know, like, I, I think it's fun. I think it's mostly just fun. As you can tell, these definitions are very strict and rigid and not at all, not at all defined by the person coming up with the list of names. That's definitely how it works. Now, I mean, obviously the simplest way to think of it. Sleepers, breakouts, good, busts, bad.

Sure. Yeah, that makes sense. And that's exactly what we're going to talk about today. We've got five of each. So five sleepers, five breakouts, five busts, two from each of Scott and, Chris, throw a one your way that I'm either liking or disliking this season. And let's jump right in because we have a lot of names to get to here. Scotty, why don't you kick us off, your first sleeper you'd like to talk about?

Keep me up with the name I hit you with before because I don't remember who I texted you. That would be from my New York Yankees. Oh my goodness gracious. And so I will point out, this means that we're only giving four sleepers. So, Frank, if you want to give an extra one, by all means. Well, I haven't wrote my sleeper column yet, so I'm still kind of coming up with the list, but I might be able to give you one.

Scotty, it's Luke Voight. Luke Voight. Also a sleeper for me. Yes, yes. How could you not love Luke Voight? Apparently, a lot of people don't love Luke Voigt because a lot of people seem to think he's not going to be the Yankees first basement next year.

And obviously my calculation will change, if that proves to be true. But as things stand right now, he's in line to start a first base for the Yankees. And by golly, he should, because he has been amazing since joining that team since joining the Yankees, which, let's see, when did it happen?

2018. Okay, so parts of four seasons he's been with the Yankees. The slash line he has averaged during that time is 270, 362, 519, a 36-homer 100 RBI 90-run pace across his stint with the Yankees. I mean, clearly an early round first baseman. He was the major league leader in home runs in 2020. The only times he hasn't been a stud are when he's been playing through injuries. In the 2019 season, he had a sports hernia he was dealing with for the entire second half.

And then last year, obviously, got derailed by injuries early. The Yankees ended up trading for Anthony Rizzo, and Voight never got consistent playing time after that. But just when he's healthy and on the field, he's as good as you could ask for among first baseman. And his ADP is outside the top 200. Like he's an afterthought, a complete afterthought, which, by the way, I mean, I think it's even worse this year.

But that was also kind of true heading into that. 2020 season when he had the sports hernia the previous era, didn't it seem like people were willing to invest much in him, and then he went on to lead the majors in home runs during that pandemic shortened season. So he's only 30 years old.

There's no reason to write him off yet, as long as the Yankees themselves don't. Yeah, the ADP for Luke Void is 237, as you mentioned. So going outside the top 200, he's basically free in 12-team leagues right now. And the past two seasons combined, Just 2020 and 2021.

He played 124 games. 33 homers during that time. 8.56 OPS. There's no doubting. He's really good when he plays. It's just, can he stay on the field? Will he be on the Yankees? These are all questions, you know, for the injury part.

We don't really know yet. Same thing for the Yankees, but it sounds like, my guess is, as someone who follows a team very closely, they will bring somebody in. Whether it's Freddie Freeman, sorry Scott, Matt Olson, or Anthony Rizzo. Just valuing a left-handed bat, defense. To me, it sounds like that's a foregone. conclusion, but there's still time for that to change. Chris, why don't you tell us why you

are in on Luke Voight? I mean, you guys covered it. Anytime he's been healthy, he's been a high 800s OPS bad at least. And, you know, he was never going to repeat 2020. He was an obvious fade last season when he was going off the board as the fourth first basement, but he was also an obvious buy going into 2020. And I think he's an obvious buy right now. The concerns about playing time, those are fair. It doesn't matter at this price. Like if you can get Luke Void outside of the top 200, it doesn't matter if he doesn't play every day. Because there's one, as I always say,

when it comes to these kind of questions, life finds a way. You know, someone that they have is going to get hurt. Like, how about this? You can't do the thing that everybody in fantasy does. John Carlo Stanton can't stay healthy and then also say there's nowhere for Luke Voight to play. Because if John Carlo can't stay healthy,

well, there you go. Luke Voight's got an everyday job sometime. So like you just look at the projections and it's it's pretty obvious that he's a value. Even if he, you know, like ATC has him projected for 119 games, 485 plate appearances, 26 homers, 65 runs, 71 RBI with a 250 average. If that's all you get out of him, that's a steal at 237th overall. Like that's not much different than what you should expect from Ryan Mountcastle. Like obviously the playing time concerns are lesser.

for Ryan Mountcastle. But even before they move the fences in, my expectations for Ryan Mountcastle and Luke Voight wouldn't be that much different on a per game basis. And so if the question is playing time, that'll get sorted out eventually. Yeah, I think if you're drafting right now, which most of you should not be doing,

but if you're doing best ball drafts or draft and holds, now is the time to buy Luke Void. Because regardless, if he is on the Yankees this time in two months, his ADP will be 100 spots higher. I truly do believe that. If he gets traded, it's going to be 100 spots higher. He's not going to get traded somewhere that he's not playing. Yeah, but it's also not likely going to be as good of a ballpark as Yankee Stadium, right?

Sure, but if you think he's good, that doesn't matter that much. Yeah, I mean, look, he can go back to Oakland, I guess, in a Madd Olson trade or just if they're trying to beef up the bullpen or something. Like, yeah, they can ship out Luke Void if they bring another first basement in. But yeah, now is the time to buy, if you. are doing early drafts. By the way, you mentioned Ryan Mountcastle. Ryan Mountcastle doesn't hold a candle to a healthy Luke Voight. I mean, it's

a different category of player entirely. And Ryan Maddcastle's going 106th overall right now. I know, like, bonus bust, Ryan Mountcastle. And I would have called him a bust candidate even before the news of them moving and pushing back the fences. All right, Chris. So you doubled down on Luke Void, who is the other

sleeper you wanted to talk about. The other sleeper I want to talk about is Joe Adele, who we talked about yesterday a little bit. You guys talked about, I'm sure, a little bit in the outfielder tiers episode. But I just think it's, it's kind of straightforward. This is still, I believe, a 22-year-old. He turns 23 in early April with obvious elite skills, who just had a monster season at AAA where he hit 290 with a 934 OPS and a 45 homer 16 steel pace, who has been underwhelming in 73 major league games so far. And he's what, 180th in 80p, something around there? There's no reason not to draft him as your fifth outfielder or utility or a bench player.

Whatever he ends up being, there is so much upside with Joe Adele. It feels like, you know, where Byron Buckson has been for a lot of his career. And maybe it'll go the same way. Joe Adele has had a lot of injury issues himself. And maybe it'll take him a long time to figure it out. But you don't get a lot of opportunities to bet on an elite talent at the cost that Joe Adele has right now.

And so that's just the 238.4 is his ADP right now. It just, I don't think there's any questions about playing time. He started to flash towards the end of last season. I believe it was the last 17 games. He cut the strikeout rate and was hitting much better before his injury, which was a minor injury. It just happened to be at the end of September.

His last 17 games, he hit 302 with an 867 OPS. I just, I think he can be a third round kind of player. I legitimately think there's that kind of skill set. Yeah, and that's exactly why I have Joe Adele in my breakouts column, Chris, not just in the sleeper column because it wouldn't surprise me one bit

if he obviously does something that we've never seen before and possesses league winning potential. What does that look like? 20 homers, 20 plus home runs, double digit steals, a batting average that doesn't hurt you, 250, 260, at his cost, that would be a league winning player. I believe that. And what we've seen from him so far,

he had 115.5 mile per hour max exit velocity in 2020. That was top 3% in the league, 98th percentile in average. sprint speed. He cut the strikeout rate. He hit for power in the minors. He's shown the elite flashes. There's no question that the skills are there.

And at that point in the draft, you're picking between, like, him or Nathaniel Lowe, no offense. Frank, I know you like him. Don't make me get the Rangers hat. Anthony Santander, like, there's no question that Joe Adele's, you know, the highest upside pick you could make out of that group. him or Harrison Bader. He just, I'm going to take Joe Adele every time. He strikes me as a guy, Chris, that we look back on the season. And I mean, or anyone who wasn't in on Adel,

if he has a monster year, you just kind of look back and you're like, what were we thinking? Why wouldn't we draft Adele at where he was going? It just doesn't make sense. You know, post-hyped sleeper, all this prospect pedigree, finally getting a chance to play with, if the lineup stays healthy, you should be a really, really good lineup.

So it all makes sense to me as well. Scott, we haven't gotten your thoughts on Joe Adele yet. Obviously, Chris and I like me. quite a bit. What do you think? Yeah. No, I agree. There's really no downside at the cost. I feel like I feel like he was being drafted earlier than this two years ago. I may be wrong about that. Oh, yeah. Yeah, because he's failed now. Right. It's like what we're talking about yesterday or the day before when it's, you know, if that guy had never gotten called up and he had, if he had never gotten called up last season, he finished the minor league season with 35 homers and a 930 OPS. Yeah. He'd be

going higher than he is right now. He'll probably wind up in my mind. 2.0 because I feel silly now that I don't have them in mind listening to this discussion. The most encouraging thing for me is when he got to the majors last year, 22.9% strikeout rate, which is, you know, there's nothing wrong with that. 22.9. And it's a huge improvement over the 41.7% rate he had that bit we saw him in 2020. Almost half. Yeah. Shame on the Angels. I mean, it was just such an obviously bad job by them pushing him, to the majors in 2020

when he clearly was not ready. Scott, hit us with your sleeper number two. Connor Joe. Connor Joe. You know I'm in. Colorado Rockies, yes. And I think, I kind of feel like he's one of those guys

who could gain a lot of steam over the course of spring training once it becomes clear that the Rockies believe in him and plan to make him a regular part of their lineup. I think people are just, you know, it was a small span of time

when he got that opportunity and it didn't carry through to the end of the season because he suffered a groin injury. So I think he's just kind of out of mind right now for people. But in the minor leagues

since the start of 2018, Connor Joe reached base at a 417 clip from 2018 through 2021 as a minor leagueer 417. He got to the majors last year, reached it a 379 clip.

I think he was filling in for an injured, was a Charlie Blackman? I think it was Rymel Tapia. It was filling in for Tapia in August and got moved to the leadoff spot because he was hitting so well. He obviously has all the advantages

of playing half his games at Coors Field. His numbers were amazing there. Not so great on the road, but whatever. He is a Rocky. He is a Rocky, so he's going to get that huge Babbitt Boost at home. There are no contact issues like there have been for Sam Hilliard

and other Rockies up-encumbers that we've hyped in the past. And, you know, with those on-base skills, those should keep him in the lineup, you know, as long as he continues to do it. So the 43 games he started for the Rockies last year, Connor Joe's head-to-head points per game average was 3.13. That's the same that Mitch Hanigar had last year. So that was the kind of impact he was making.

Let's see. When I wrote this article, he was going outside the top 300. So again, you know, most of the drafts I do are going to end before I even get a chance to think about Connor Joe. But I could see him making a big impact this year. Yeah, but for those who play in NL only or if you're playing a 15-team Roto League, maybe even a 12-team Roto League with five outfielders, you know, six or seven bench spots, you'll find a place to grab Connor Joe at the end of your drafts. And I agree with you, Scott. I mean, you look at what he did in the minors as well, strong batting average, OBP, maybe he doesn't have a ton of upside in terms of power and speed,

but if he's the leadoff man for the Rockies, there's an opportunity for him to contribute big batting average and a lot of runs scored as well. Yeah, it's more like 20 homer power than 30. I think there's certainly a limit on his ceiling, but if he's good enough to play, he'll be good enough to use in fantasy. I'm pretty confident saying that. And from a points league perspective,

as well, Scott. I mean, you highlighted what he did, and obviously his OVP would help there quite a bit as well. Chris, do you have any thoughts on one Connor Joe? Yeah, I mean, I'm always going to be skeptical of the small sample size breakout and, you know, his minor league track record is less interesting than it might seem at first because he's been so old for the upper levels of the minors and he's played in the PCL, but it's course field, you know, like I don't trust the Rockies to play him every day. Like we've been doing this game for like four years where there's like one or two guys late rounds that were just like, man, they're going to play him every day. He's going to be a great value.

And then they just don't. Chris, this is different though. I'll tell you why. Because he's a 29-year-old journeyman. No expectations. He's not a prospect. Even if they had a prospect that was ready to go and outfield prospect, that would almost ensure that Connor Joe would play because they would just play him over him. Wait, are you talking about Sam Hilliard?

No, but it sounds a lot like. I'm joshing you, but it's at the price as a sleeper. There's no arguing against it. I'm skeptical that it's going to turn out, but it's worth taking a shot in the late rounds for sure. Well, Chris, if you like small sample sizes, then I've got the player for you. Much like Connor Joe, Lane Thomas was someone that Scotty and I were talking about a lot down the stretch last year.

I actually had him on my Tad Wars team, so shout out to Lane Thomas. He helped me get there. 45 games with the Nationals last season. 270 batting average, seven homers. 33 runs scored four steals, a 13% walk rate, 22% strikeout rate. Looking into his minor league career, not a great batting average, 254 in the minors, but consistently strong OBP, had a few big seasons there, had one year, 27 homers, 17 steals.

There is some pop, there is some speed, and I just think that if he gets an opportunity to lead off, which I think he will to start the season, and if he performs well on that job, then, you know, with guys like Juan Soto and Josh Bell, behind him. It's not a great lineup, but it could be an okay lineup in terms of scoring runs. Then for where he's going right now, which is 252 on average, not far off from our boy Joe Adele. I would take Joe Adele ahead of him.

I like the idea of Lane Thomas and maybe what he can provide leading off for that team. The cynical part of me wants to say that if it had been, if he had been traded to the raise and had the exact same run to close the season, he'd be going 80 spots higher, at least because it's just the kind of thing where we'd just be like, well, the raise must know something. And it's like, you know, he looks like a talented player. His minor league track record is pretty good. He's not going to get, you know, the nationals aren't going to get that kind of, wow,

they must have unearthed a hidden gem that nobody else saw bump that, that, you know, a team like the raise would get. But yeah, again, like Connor Joe, there, there's no argument against it at the price. So yeah. All right. Scottie, I feel like you're kind of in on Lane Thomas as well. Yeah,

he was in my sleepers 1.0. Nice. I agree. I think there are even, I think there's a clear limit to Lane Thomas's ceiling too, and it's even lower than Connor Joe's ceiling. But certainly if stolen bases are a priority for you, I mean,

if he's a full-time starter, if he's a lead-off hitter, 20 is, 20 stolen bases are within reach. And, you know, I don't think a 2020 outcome is outside the realm of possibility. Scott, you're the prospects guy. What happened in his development? Because you see, you know, he has this big breakout season in 2018, 27 homer, 17 stolen bases is a 22-year-old between double A and AAA.

And then he kind of gets a shot a little bit in 2019, a little bit in 2020. but he's been pretty consistently solid across the high minors. I mean, 240 games, he's got 42 homers and 31 steals. That's a, I don't know. And Chris's gun. Yeah. I don't remember him getting much prospect type, Lane Thomas. I do remember that he was somebody who was competing with Tyler O'Neill for playing.

time back when we were constantly rooting for Tyler O'Neill to get more playing time. And so I got used to rooting against Lane Thomas. But now I'm rooting for him because he's with a different team. And there's nobody better who's in line for a bat's with the nationals. For anybody who's watching the podcast on YouTube right now, it's very disrespectful that Chris would just fall asleep in the middle of the podcast. You know, I've got to say this, Chris, you've done a lot of mean things to me. But man, this might take the cake.

Poor guy. All right, he's going to be back. Anyway, let's talk about... The last thing I wanted to say about Lane Thomas. I feel like he was always blocked, and you're right, that he was competing with Tyler O'Neill, so they always had a lot of outfielders there. And look, he is a former Cardinals outfielder,

and we've seen these guys leave and become better before, a lot of Tommy Fam. So let's see if Lane Thomas... Randia Rosarena. That's right. Let's see if Lane Thomas could be the next one to join those guys. The last leaper I wanted to mention, Scott, was John Gray.

And solely, this is just a bet on him getting out of course field. really don't have numbers to back up that he's going to be better outside of course field because as long as he's been part of the Rockies, that hasn't been the case. In his career, he's 30 years old, 4.59 ERA, 134 whip. Strikeouts are solid over a strikeout per inning. What I look at last year is he did change the pitch mix a little bit career high 38% slider usage and that's far and away his best pitch. What do we normally say? Throw your best pitches more. That's exactly what John Gray did. He had an 18% swinging strike rate. that slider last year.

Bigger ballpark that he moves into. Better division to pitch in now in the ALS. Scott, I don't really have much outside of that, but I do think that this could be the best that we've ever seen from John Gray. Yeah, I really think Coors Field warps a pitcher beyond what most people realize.

Yeah, it's a horrible place to pitch. I think people get that. But it so changes the movement on the baseball that to have any success there, You just have to reinvent yourself. So I don't think the John Gray we've seen for the past seven years is the John Gray, who is coming out of Oklahoma, is this huge prospect.

I think he's had to do away with some pitchers that were successful for him back then and really simplify things. So can he recapture that form that he gave up that many years ago? I don't know, but it's an exciting thought, if nothing else. John Gray, the ADP right now, 275.3, going ahead, just ahead of another gray. Josiah Gray. He was going three spots behind him right now. We have three grays now, don't know.

Yeah, Sunny Gray, John Gray, and Josiah Gray. Chris, we were just talking about John Gray and really that there's no evidence that says he's going to be better outside of course field, outside of the fact that he's going to be outside of course field. I'm kind of stunned his ADP's not higher. I know he's coming off. Same. You know, a very, very bad 20-20. eight starts and then a, you know, middling for him in 2021, but just going to a park that,

you know, seems to at least favor pitchers slightly at least. I don't see why you wouldn't take a chance on him. Yeah, especially where he's going. So I am with you. He will be in my Sleepers 1.0 when I write it up for this Friday. We're going to hit a quick break, but a reminder that we will have a live mock draft YouTube exclusive tonight on Thursday, January 27th, 9.30 p.m. Eastern time. This one will be a head-to-head point startup dynasty mock. Yes, it's very specific, but we're going to be doing lots of mock drafts for the next month or two. So hopefully we will hit on the format that you play in, and that's the one that we're going to be doing tonight. So make sure to come check us out and subscribe to the YouTube channel,

YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. Starting next week, all of our podcasts are going to be live on YouTube once again. It's what we did last year during the season. And we're going to start it up again starting next week as well. So make sure to subscribe, tap the notification bell so you know every time we go live. Also coming next week, we're going to have a mailbag podcast. So if you've got questions, we have answers. Send those via email, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I. Or you can leave a five-star Apple podcast rating and drop your question in the review. We're going to take a quick break. But when we return, breakouts here on fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's move into breakout. And Scottie, why don't you kick us off with,

I don't know, you want to go pitcher, you want to go hitter. You got one of each. Let's go, let's go pitcher. All right. Let's go Ranger Suarez. And I know what you're thinking. Scott, how can a guy who had a 136 ERA last year break out? And my response to that is, well, nobody's drafting him like he had a 136 ERA last year, much less a 236 ERA or a 336 ERA for that matter. So if, you know, the actual numbers are irrelevant if he isn't being, you know, if he's not getting credit for them. And just to put that in perspective, by the way, because I feel like people aren't making a big enough deal of just what a 136 ERA is.

So the last time a pitcher who made at least 12 starts in a season and had an ERA that low was, well, it was Jacob de Grom last year. He did it as well as Ranger Suarez. But before that, the last picture... So not even that long ago. That doesn't sound impressive at all. But before that, the last pitcher to have an ERA that low

and make at least 12 starts in a season was Bob Gibson in 1968. I mean, it was his... Yeah, but that was on raised match. It was historically low ERA. And, you know, even if you just look at the 12 starts he made, a 151 ERA, you look at the ERA estimators, 262 XERA, 272 FIP. I believe the XFIP was just a little over three. I mean, it's an elite number no matter which one you look at. It says that his, the formula for him should lead to great run prevention.

And that formula is mostly built on a 59.2% ground ball rate, which would have ranked a number one among qualifiers, although it would be behind both Frambert Valdez and Logan Webb, who were also non-qualifiers. But anyway, it's, it's a superlative ground ball rate for Ranger Suarez. He's still got a strikeout per inning. As over the course of those 12 starts, I believe, what was it, the last five were all six innings or more, and he even had a complete game shutout in there. So they really stretched him out fully. And the more they stretched him out, the strikeout and walk rates both actually improved. So I don't think it's a situation where he's going to be overextended as a starter.

He's already been pushed pretty hard in that role and measured up. So, no, he's not going to have another 136 ERA. But like I said at the start, he has a 336 ERA. I'm going to consider it a breakout at the price he's going. So yeah, I like Ranger Suarez and nobody else seems to. I've got to say, Scotty, I am pretty torn on Ranger Suarez. I realized how good he was last year, honestly, because I remember talking about him a lot down the stretch as well. And he won a lot of people fantasy baseball championships.

But the strikeouts kind of jump off the page as something that haven't really been there for him in the past that coincides with the swinging strike rate. So how real is that? I was just looking into his pitch mix to see if he did anything different last year. Not really. He threw his sinker and his four-scene fastball combined 68% of the time. I mean, that's a lot of fastball usage. I mean, we're talking about Lance Lynn and guys like that who really rely on their fastballs that much. And, And maybe it's just good enough with his changeup where he can make it work. I will also point out that his final nine matchups were all very, very favorable. At the Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay.

tougher, but they do strike out a lot. Arizona, at Miami, Colorado, that game was in Philly. The Cubs, the Orioles, the Pirates, and the Marlins. So, honestly, he's just like a tough one for me to figure out. And the ADP, it's not awful, but he's also going ahead of some names that are. kind of proven, right? Like, Sean Mania, I think Sean Mania is like criminally undervalued this year.

I mean, what he did last season, just overall, the underlying numbers for him, the velocity jump for him. Marcus Schroman's done it for a while. He's been pretty consistent. Chris Bassett has been good the past couple of years. You know, Logan Gilbert, I think, has a lot of upside. He's in my breakouts column.

So like the price isn't too prohibitive, Scott, but at the same time, I feel like he is going ahead of some players who are either established or also have upside. So I don't think I'm going to get there with him. And that's fine. And that's fine. Like, I just, I have yet to hear anybody say they're, like, excited to draft Ranger Suarez.

And I genuinely, I take them over all those guys you mentioned. I think, honestly, you know, I mentioned the ground ball rate, how similar his is to Logan Webb. I think ERA, whip, K-per-9, it could be similar for those two pitchers. I mean, Logan Webb did it for a longer stretch, but it wasn't. a full season for him either. I think, you know, I'd rather...

And he didn't really do it for a longer stretch. You know, he was more like three months. He wasn't that great. Yeah. If you're excluding the good work, Ranger Suarez didn't relief completely,

because obviously he was doing that for much longer. But I think, you know, just based on what we saw from the two of them last year, they profile very similarly. I understand why Logan Webb's going earlier, but, you know,

I think, Ranger Suarez deserves enthusiasm himself, and he's not getting it. All right, Chris. Time to hear from you. Do you share that same enthusiasm for Rangers Juarez? No, not quite so much, but I think if you've been listening to this podcast for a while, I think you're pretty well aware that Ranger Suarez is the type of pitcher, a type of player, really, that Scott tends to like more than I do.

I tend to be more skeptical of the small sample size breakouts, as I said earlier, Scott is a little more willing to buy into them if the underlying data supports it. And look, the underlying data last year completely supports everything that Ranger Choir has did. It's just a question of whether you can be that successful throwing 68% of your pitches as fastballs. You know, being primarily a sinker guy. You don't really see a lot of sinkers out there with a 245 expected Wobah against. If he can do that consistently, if he can continue to generate the kind of weak contact he was, then, yeah, I think he could be quite.

quite good, but it's, I'm less likely to take that chance than Scott is, but I, I don't have anything against Ranger Suarez, personally. All right? Uh, yeah, look, I think that's why we're talking about these players. Scott likes him. I'm a little bit more skeptical. Same thing with Chris. So we be talking about talk it out and you guys aside, uh, which, which argument you like most. Chris, would you rather have Ranger Suarez or, hmm, I don't know. Eduardo Rodriguez was going 25 picks later. I would rather have Eduardo Rodriguez. I think the underlying. numbers. You know, one thing he's been successful at the major league level before the underlying

numbers, I think, are a little more believable just because he did it for longer. I know the overlying, uh, numbers are pretty bad for Eduardo Rodriguez, but the, you know, strikeout rate, walk rate, all the peripherals that we, we tend to point to looked like Eduardo Rodriguez was a really good pitcher. And he's been a sub four FIP every season since 20. And let's not forget last season, you know, he was coming back from a really scary heart issue as a result of contracting COVID during the 2020 season or before the 2020 season. So, you know, that's something there. But, you know, in 2018, he had a 382 ERA in 129 innings, 2019, 381 in 203.

You're going to get more than a strikeout per inning. He's not bad in terms of control. And the move to Detroit, I think, will help him. So I think there's a lot of things pointing in the right direction for Rydwater Rodriguez is that one could make him a more efficient pitcher, which can help him pitch deep into games, which has been an issue in his career, and also just be a more effective pitcher.

There are definitely concerns for me that he could just be Matthew Boyd to keep it within the Tigers family. But, you know, I think I tend to trust the underlying numbers, and I think the, did he have myocarditis? I believe that is what he had, yep. You know, coming off of that, that's a really serious health issue. They weren't sure he was ever going to be able to pitch again. So, you know, the fact that he was even able to make, you know,

32 starts last season, let alone with underlying stats that were pretty good, I think is a positive sign. Yeah, I think if you just look at his 2018 and 2019 with the Red Sox and kind of set that as the baseline, a high three's ERA, 3.8, 3.85, something like that. Can he get better pitching in Detroit in a bigger park, in a better division in terms of other parks and other offenses that you have to face?

And then if he builds off that, if we're talking about a 3-7, a 36-ERA, then yeah, we're onto something there with Eduardo Rodriguez. And the reason I chose him in particular is because he is Chris's breakout. So, Scott, what do you think? I mean, the surface number is not good. We've kind of got an Aranola thing going on

where the underlying numbers were much, much better for Eduardo, a 3.43 X-Fit last year. That was 10th among starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitch, 10th among starting pitchers. So that says he was really good. Yeah, I think there's a good case.

I just, I just can't get that excited about it because, you know, even at his best, the, apart from one year where I think he got 200 innings. Yeah, 28. His best, his best case outcomes have been pretty middling. And, you know, we kept expecting him to live up to his ex-fip last year and we kept getting burned by it over and over again.

So, you know, I still have him 61st in my rankings, which, you know, is giving him credit for something he didn't do last year. but that's 28 spots behind Rager Swar as in my starting pitcher rankings. So I would be content to let Rodriguez go to somebody else. Yeah, 61 for Scott. Man, I did not realize. Apparently I'm the high guy on Noirta Rodriguez. I have him 42nd. And Chris, you have him at SP 48.

All right, Scottie. Give us your hitter breakout for this season. Willie Adamas. It's almost too easy. When you break down his home away splits during his time with the Reyes, he complained about the batter's eye at Tropicana Field. He really didn't like hitting there. It could just dismiss it as whining, but over his entire Ray's career, which began in 2018,

he hit 219 with a 624 OPS at home. He hit 291 with an 858 OPS everywhere else. Now, it doesn't always work out that, you know, when you have home-away splits like that, and your surroundings change, the appropriate split just goes with you. But that's exactly what happened during a stint with the Brewers last year, 285 with 20 home runs and an 886 OPS. So with the Brewers, 285, 886. Remember, on the road with the race, 291, 858.

Identical, right? virtually identical. So, I mean, I don't see much reason to doubt it. And if you don't doubt it, then Willie Adamas looks a lot like Xander Bogarts, I feel like. I mean, in leagues that account for plate discipline, that give you something for walks and strikeouts themselves, okay, Bogart's is going to have an edge just based on that. But when you're talking about the five-by-five stats, I feel like Willie Adamas could, potentially do the same sort of thing,

and yet he's going on average 25th just among shortstop. He's going after Glaber Torres. It's a little bit ridiculous. I hope in those five, in those roto leagues, I get Willie Adomis is my middle end fielder and all of them. That's just, I hope that's what happens.

Chris beat me to him in the last mock we did, and it was a moment in the draft. I remember. I groaned. I shouted curses in Chris's direction. But hopefully future drafts go better for me because I want all the Adomas I can get. Yeah, I think he's a perfect.

The thing about him versus, the thing about him versus Glaber Torres is what did Willie Adamas do against the Orioles three years ago? You know, that's what you have to keep in mind. Don't be mean to Glaber, Chris. Come on. it's been hard enough frank poor glaver man

hey he was good for like 18 games at the end of the year when he played second base so we've got some hope for glaver torres i would take willie damas ahead of glabre and i think he's a perfectly perfectly fine fallback option at shortstop if you miss out on if you somehow manage to miss out on like the other 15 shortstops that are also awesome but yeah adamis i'm totally about it's got you mentioned what he did with the pruers over 99 games. If you put that over a 150 game pace, 30 homers, six deals, and you mentioned the 285 batting

average, it wouldn't surprise me if he does something close to what Jorge Polanco did last season, maybe a few less deals, but I think that kind of outcome is possible for Willie Adamas. Chris, I want to get to our bus as well, so why don't you just hit me with your second breakout here? Andrew Vaughn. He is an extremely talented hitter who showed real flashes of that last season, but the overall numbers obviously were not what we were hoping for. We thought he could be a top 10 first baseman as a rookie. Clearly that didn't happen. He's barely played as a professional before this.

And the underlying numbers were not elite, but were much better than his overall numbers. 330X Wobah versus a 306 Woba, 381 X Wobon contact, 47.3% hard hit rate. Max exit Velo in the top 6% of the league, 91.1 average mile per hour. whatever. Jaggs of velocity. He hit the ball really, really hard. And the strikeout rate is about average, but that got better as the season went on as well. So I think there are real reasons to be optimistic about Andrew Vaughn. And just as a bet on talent, I think there's a very good reason to take that risk on him. I think if you just put Andrew Vaughn into context, what he did last year, while it was underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, I think it's perfectly fine. He was a rookie

who had not played a single game above AA or AAA. In fact, he didn't play a single game in 2020. So we're talking about someone who hasn't played since 2019, and the last time he played, he was in high A ball. And he hit 235, 15 homers,

the 705 OPS, crushed lefties, really good against lefties, really, really bad against righties. So he's got to figure that out. He was also playing out of position. He was playing in the outfield. So if he gets more opportunities

to DH maybe, maybe play some first base and they could D.H. Jose Abray you, I think that could also help. And generally speaking, I think there aren't that many right-handed hitters who have extreme splits. So I would expect him to be much better against righties moving forward as well. All right, Scottie, I'm going to give us our last breakout here before we get to bust.

And I actually have a new audio drop to play for this one. And it's going to please our wrestling fans out there for, I don't know how, what's the crossover between fantasy sports and wrestling? I feel like it's actually pretty good. Like there's got to be some kind of correlation there. Anyway, this one's for Shane O. Mack. Shane McClain. my breakout. Here comes the money.

Here we go. Money talks. Here comes the money. Let's go. Shane O. Mac. Shane McClanahan. We talked about him a lot down the stretch last year as well.

Scott. He was awesome as a rookie. 3-4-3-E-R-A. The whip a little bit high, 1-2-7. Over a strikeout per inning. The arsenal looks amazing. He has four different pitches.

He throws at least 8% of the time. A fastball, 96 miles per hour on average. 14.8% swinging strike rate tied for eighth. among starting pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched last year. What I think he needs to work on is the fastball, specifically the command of that fastball.

It got hit pretty hard. 300 batting average against 500 slugging percentage. Kind of has this Shane Bieber thing going on from when Bieber first came up. He lived a little bit too much in the zone and he got hit hard as a result of that. But, man, based on just stuff and the arsenal, what this guy has and he's in the Tampa Bay organization, I think he's going to be really, really good. He pitched 129 innings between the regular and postseason. I think we can get up to like 150, 160.

Scott, what are you thinking about the workload for Shane McClanahan this year? Yeah, I think what you laid out is possible. And, you know, he'll be a nice value if he does that. It obviously means he's not going to break through as an ace this year because you need at least 180 innings for that. But, you know, he could break out. to a lesser degree. I just don't like the price.

The price is higher than I would like it to be. Chris, I agree with you. 110th overall. It's just, that's a lot to pay for a, for a guy who has the injury or the, the innings questions, but also real red flags in his batted ball profile in terms of the quality of contact he gave up.

He was one of the worst in the league in terms of the quality of contact he gave up. Now, pitchers don't have as much control over that. as hitters do. So, you know, maybe that's a one-year fluke thing and it'll regress. But yeah, he needs to either be a lot better in that regard or needs to get, you know, needs to get that strikeout rate even up to like 30%. Well, what do you think about the comp to Bieber, Chris?

Because I feel like we said the same thing when Bieber first came up that year and he was allowing a lot of hard contact. And he was, I looked at the zone percentage for Shane McClan, and he was above league average. So maybe he just needs to throw those secondary pitches out of the Z. own a little bit more and ultimately that'll help play up the rest of his arsenal. Yeah, I mean, it fits in some ways because like the FIP and XFIP do suggest that he was quite good last season. The XERA is the one that really stands out because that's the one that takes

quality of contact into account more so than the other two. So, you know, it, I think it's possible. But one, Shane Bieber, the kind of leap he made is not the kind of thing you should ever expect any pitcher to do. But yeah, like, I think Shane McClanahan is extremely talented. It's just, I think the red flags are too much to ignore it 110th overall. That's the only thing for me. All right. I just got my first share of Shane McClanahan, so I'm pretty excited.

What do you think of this pitching staff? I've got Zach Wheeler, Charlie Morton, and Shane McClan so far. Sounds fine. I think you need more pitchers. It sounds fun, Scott. It doesn't sound fine. It sounds fun to me. All right, let's move on to Boston.

and we'll wrap up with these. Scotty, want to you kick us off here with your first bust? My first bus, Frank, I'm going to hit you with Jazz Chisholm, who is a bust candidate, I think, in the purest sense, meaning bottom out drop from your roster type potential here. Was considered very raw, breaking into the majors last year, a lot of strikeouts in his minor league career.

I was not giving him much of a chance to be even useful. heading into his rookie season. I just thought he'd get eaten alive, frankly. So it was surprising to see him have such a strong April hitting 3-11, slugging 581 in that first month, stealing nine bases. Very surprising. It kind of carried him as a fantasy asset.

It kind of carried him the rest of the way because the final five months he hit 236. slugged 395, stole only 14 bases in five months time. So he kind of got eaten alive after that first month. It kind of played out the way I thought it would. And, you know, everybody stuck with him because he started so strong. He's a top 100 player right now.

I just, I can't even wrap my head around that. It fits into the idea we were talking about. on the last podcast, this desperation for steals you see in these rotodrafts. You know, oh, look, a guy who could maybe deliver me a 2020 outcome. Yeah, maybe. But again, I think it's just as likely come mid-April you're dropping him. And that's too much draft capital to invest in a guy with, you know, that much volatility in his profile. By the way, I think that's the more likely scenario than him breaking

out with this monster season. I think it's more likely that he will get dropped than that he will make good on his upside. But I'm happy that you acknowledge at least the range of outcomes, right, for Jazz. I mean, there is a scenario where he hits 20 homers with 30 steals and, you know, he becomes this stud for fantasy baseball. But I agree. I mean, the low, the floor is pretty low as well, especially for a cost that at one time, Scott, was inside of the top 100. You know what I just realized? Fantasy Pros ADP has also added CBS Sports ADP.

So that has drag jazz chasm down quite a bit because he's going 167th overall in CBS drafts. You know, a lot of our leagues are points, so that all, that's especially a rough. Like he probably isn't, I don't know if he's not worth drafting in points, but he's not a starting caliber player in Points League, I think. Sure. We also haven't done a lot of drafts on CBS yet,

so it's going to take some time for this ADP to normalize. Yeah. Now, our ADP data is separate points in Roto, so I assume Fantasy Pro has pulled the Roto data. But, you know, 167th overall is more along the lines of where I rank Jans Jizum. So I'm happy that we're dragging him down, if that's the case. I can't, I can't, I can't stamp my name to everything that might show up in CBS ADP, but for this particular thing I can.

One thing I will say is if all he does is repeat last year's overall numbers, you know, a pick around 100 isn't the worst thing in the world. He'd probably be around worth that just because 18 homers and 23 stolen bases in 124 games. Like that's super valuable in a Roto league. So, you know, I guess if you want to make the argument against the bottom falling out, it would be that. But no, I agree. He's just an incredibly volatile player. The skill set is he's more tools than skills is the way I think I put it in the shortstop or second base preview.

And it's, you know, you can kind of see it in just like when you dive into the numbers, you see that like he hit fastballs really well. he was bad against both breaking balls and off speed pitches. Like that kind of stuff fits in with what you think of when you think of a player like Jazz Chisholm, who's incredibly toolsy, but the skills are still catching up in terms of putting them into play more consistently. And for what it's worth,

all four of the projection systems that are on fan graphs right now have Jazz Chisholm as a 2020 bat. The problem is they all have him between a 235 batting average and a 241 batting average. So keep that in mind, lots of power, lots of speed. But he's still got a ways to go, I think, before we're drafting him inside the top 100 here. Chris, Jazz was one of your bus, who is the second one? Yes.

Tyler O'Neill, I just, I can't say for sure that what he did last season was a fluke because it's the kind of thing that we've always thought was possible for him. He's always been, you know, one, put up big numbers in the minors, and two has had the elite tool set when you look. at, you know, average exit velocity and max ex of Velo and all those things, and sprint speed. Like, he's always been a rare combination of raw power and speed. The problem was he had never been able to put it into play consistently because his play discipline was so bad. Well, he struck out more in 2021 than he did in 2020 and also hit

286 with a 912 OPS. So, you know, I think. he could absolutely do this again. The reason he's a bus for me and the reason he's a risk at his price is, it's just like Jazz Chisholm, it's a volatile skill set. And so I could see something like, remember Horace Saler led the majors in home runs in 2019?

And then he kind of struggled in 2020 and 2021 was up and down for him. So, you know, I think it's that kind of thing where the plate discipline is bad and that can lead to long, long stretches of him just not being particularly good. I'm with you. He was in my bus 1.0 as well.

31% strikeout rate, 16% swinging strike rate. Both of those were sixth highest in the league among qualified hitters. Of course, there are some players that can overcome that, like Javier Baez. And Tyler O'Neill kind of has some Javier Baez to him

where he's like a freak athlete, so he might be able to outperform this stuff. but I need to see it happen. You look at Javier Baez, and that's kind of the risk profile there because Javier Baez has been fantasy relevant every single season of his career, really, since he became an everyday player.

But he had the one year where he was an MVP contender. And ever since then, it's been good months, bad months, good seasons, bad seasons. You know, let's not forget, Javier Baez was like the most hated man in New York City, for a couple of months last year. Thumbs down, baby. Overall, I mean, his numbers last year were pretty good.

Javier Baezza is 265 batting average, 31 homers, 18 steals. You know, really his only bad season, Chris, was 2020, the short season. Looking at it now. But, all right, we'll talk about Javier Baez another day. Bonus bust, Javier Baez. Oh, come on.

He is also on my list. Oh, geez. I mean, not that I love Javier Baez or anything, but yeah, I mean, I haven't, I was so frustrated. I drafted him everywhere leading into 2020. I didn't know it was going to be a short season. It wouldn't have really changed things for me. I liked him a lot that year.

And he just, it was so painful to watch last year, him bounce back and be great when I, I didn't draft him anywhere. So. I kind of feel like I need to get into it now. Do I need to get into it now? Javier Baez. Yeah. Go ahead.

He's always had, he's always been an outlier in terms of Babip and in terms of home run to fly ball rate. He had to be one of the very best in the league at both to continue to put up the numbers he has. And so far, he's managed to do that. He actually got worse in terms of plate discipline last year. The strikeout rate got worse. I think the walk right got worse, too. In any case, it wasn't good.

And still, he managed to put a pretty good numbers, as you mentioned, Frank. You know why? He became even more of an outlier. and Bapib and home run to fly ball rate. Those numbers somehow got better for him. It's just one of those situations where there's no way he can possibly be that kind of exception for year after year after you. One of these years is going to slip up and the results could be really bad. And it could be the year he goes to Detroit.

Yeah, I don't think Detroit. Yeah, I don't think Detroit helps. We saw Nick Castiano's made make the reverse move. Detroit to the Cubs and he exploded and he's you know been hyped to the hills and fantasy ever since so I don't know that Baez's particular swing profile is is going to hurt him in Detroit the same way it did Castellanos but it's not an upgrade that's for sure the only thing I'll say about Baez regarding the ballpark in Detroit is he kind of strikes me as one of these guys where his home runs are going to fly out anywhere you know like Javier Baez not to right center

They will not fly out the right center. That's fair, but does he hit a lot of his home runs to right center anyway? I feel like, I don't. I feel like he's so pull heavy. Probably not as many as Castellanos, but... That's fair. But yeah, I don't... I think the takeaway with Baez and Jazz and O'Neal is not these guys are going to bust,

which I think is what people hear when you say bust. But it's really just highlighting that once you get to a certain range in the draft, know, fifth, sixth round is where O'Neill and Bias are going. I think Jazz is a little lower. That's where it starts to be a risk reward proposition and where the risk might outweigh the reward. Honestly, I'm probably going to have a lot of shares of Baez, at least in Roto, because I'm not placing a high priority

on stolen bases early in the draft. And, you know, considering the upside bias has, I don't think his going rate is that bad. I don't think he's a poor value necessarily. I'm just saying the bottom, the floor for him is really low. And it doesn't, it's not a strain on the imagination to see him reaching it. Chris, you shaved. Looks good.

Thanks. Sorry, my hat was, you know, my hat was getting a little itchy. All right. Scotty, you have one more buzz. 30 seconds or less. Is that Gallon? again, big bottom out potential here. His elbow.

He missed time with an injury. The structural integrity has been called into question on that elbow. And when he returned, he didn't look the same. He did finish strong final eight starts 319 ERA more than a K per, but his swinging strike rate during that stretch was 8.6%. Far cry from the 12% rate we're used to saying that's like a bottom of the barrel swinging strike rate. I can't say for sure. Tommy John's surgery is happening.

but until I see him turn around those rates, I will presume he and Tommy John surgery are on a collision course, and I don't want to be caught in the crosshairs. All right. Again, that is Zach Gallen. Let me just quickly pull up the ADP to see where he's going right now. That is 126.3, which is actually a little bit higher than I think it should be as well. I'm going to wrap up here with a bust of mine,

and this goes out to the gentleman on Twitter who called me a Yankee Homer. It's a role this Chapman. He's my bust here. We haven't talked about any closers, but I feel like we should at least mention one. And Chapman had a 3.36 ERA last year, which is okay, but a 1.31 whip

over six walks per nine, the second highest of his career. Was it, you know, a product of the sticky stuff last season and losing out on it? I don't know, maybe. His first two months, he had a 0.45 ERA, 0.75 whip. final four months, 4.95 ERA, 1.62 whip. Among pitchers with at least 10

endings pitched before June and 10 endings pitched after June, Chapman had the third biggest drop in K-minus walk rate last season. So do with that what you will, but it's very clear that the Yankees had sticky stuff in their clubhouse. So who was using that stuff? We know Garrett Cole was. Was the role to Chapman? Kind of seems like he was as well. So, and there are capable relievers on this Yankee team as well. Jonathan Loisigo wouldn't surprise me if either they signed another reliever, they trade for another reliever, but either way,

I feel like the leash for a Roller to Chapman is shorter now than it's ever been before, and based on his ADP as like a top five or six closer, I just don't want to mess with that, so I'm out. I'm out on Chapman. Anybody else? I think it makes sense. Scottie?

Good? All right. So right there. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again on Monday. Bye-bye.