Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts 3.0! Latest News & Spring Performances (3/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 28, 2022

Before we get into sleepers, Chris Rock got slapped! Justin Verlander is undervalued (2:28)! ... Jesus Luzardo put together another impressive spring start (5:50). ... Can Carlos Carrasco get back on track (8:15)? ... Is Alex Cobb more valuable than Carrasco and Luzardo (11:15)? ... If you need power, target Luke Voit and Mitch Garver (14:00). ... Frank and Scott love Connor Joe (20:38)! Can Julio Rodriguez make the team (23:47)? ... News and notes (28:30): Zack Wheeler is progressing, humidors are coming and more. ... What's up with Cody Bellinger plus the latest spring performances (39:00)? ... What is Daulton Varsho's upside (43:20)? ... Which pitchers might break out (45:15)? ... There's a lot of excitement for Oneil Cruz and Jo Adell (50:35). ... We wrap up with busts, starting with Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm (54:04). 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Sleepers, Breakouts, and Bus 3.0. Let's do it.

Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, March 28th. Frank Stanful joined by Scott White, and it's our last full week of pods before opening day. next week. Get hyped. I was going to lead with Charlie Morton, Scott, because, come on, the guy was awesome in his spring debut, but I kind of feel like we should just talk about Will Smith's smack and Chris Roth. It's all I can think about right now. Like, it just happened as like, as we're recording now or, you know, like within the last hour, it just happened. So, yeah, yeah, it's difficult to recompose yourself after, after that. One of the greatest

moments in live TV history, I think. It's fair to say. Yeah, I mean, it's hard for us to recompose herself. Imagine being Chris Rock. That guy's on TV. He just got smacked. So if anyone hasn't seen it by now, go, like, if you're on Twitter, if you're anywhere right now, you'll probably see a video of it. And it's one of the craziest things that I've ever seen. Anyway, Scott, Charlie Morton, I did want to just kind of like lead with this. He looked awesome in his spring debut. It's great to see. Four and two-thirds, hitless endings, five strikeouts to just one walk, you love to see it, Skadi. You love to see it. I never had any doubts, Frank.

No doubts. That's exactly right. And we both have a bunch of shares of Charlie Morton and excited about it. Very excited. So he looks ready to go, midseason form. Fantastic opening performance. I haven't been getting as many shares lately because it seems like maybe the world is caught up to us. Or at least maybe not all the way because I have him as the top 15 starting pitcher. but he's not going at quite the same discount he once was. It's true. It is true. All right, let's get to our latest sleepers, breakouts and bus.

Plus, I have some news and weekend performances I want to get to outside of Charlie Morton, of course. And Scott, let's start with some sleepers. You're up first. Who you got? All right, sleepers. Another guy whose stock has been rising, but I don't think as quickly as Morton's. I still think I can call him a sleeper, and that's Justin Verlander. all the Justin Verlander I can handle

because I think and it's easier to say this now having seen him throw in spring training a couple times I think he's still Justin Verlander there's always some doubts for a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery and in this case a 39

year old coming back for Tommy John surgery is one thing to throw to average you know an average mid-90s on your fastball hit 98 with some regularity when you're 36, but now we're asking him to do it at 39. Well, it seems like he still has that kind of stuff.

And he's always been such a workhorse. And I think especially since it's clear he's in, you know, I'm not saying, I don't know that this is the last year of his career, but it's clear he's in the last years of his career. I doubt neither he nor the Astros are going to be interested in preserving his workload the way you would normally see a pitcher fresh off Tommy John surgery. So, you know, last time we saw him, he had one of the great pitching seasons in modern history. Over 300 strikeouts, 21 wins.

The whip was 0.80, I think. It was amazing. And that was the last time we saw him. So, you know, I don't know that he's going to be quite that good again, but anything close to that. And he's going to be well worth his ADP. And where is he going? in ADP right now. Fantasy pros, 100.2 is the average draft position for Justin Verlander. Like Charlie Morton, he's someone who is beginning to climb throughout spring training because he looks healthy.

He's throwing mid-90s with the fastball again. And in the offseason, signed a one year $25 million deal to return to the Houston Astros. And that comes with a conditional option where if he reaches 130 innings, he'll get an additional year at $25 million. So you know that he's obviously got that as a goal, the $130. And then he's, he's, he's obviously got that as a goal, the $130. and then, you know, if we can, I think I feel pretty good that he's going to get there. And anything after that, you know, can we get, you know, up to 160, 180, something like that from Verlander? I think that would be awesome. Scott, speaking of Verlander, going just ahead of him in this range, would rather have Verlander or Carlos Rodan, who signed with the Giants, obviously, a couple weeks ago. I'd rather have Verlander, but, yeah, very encouraged by what we've seen from Carlos Rodan this spring, too.

he was, I think he's just made one start, right? But he was hitting 98 in it. So clearly the dip in velocity from last September wasn't carrying over. And that's a big deal. So I believe they're consecutive in my rankings now, but Verlander's ahead because of even coming back from Tommy John surgery. I suspect the workload will be better for Verlander. What about Verlander versus some hype guys around the industry?

Trevor Rogers, Alec Manoa, Dylan Seas. Yeah, they're all behind those two. All right. So yeah, Verlander, if you're using Scott's rankings, pretty good chance that you're going to wind up with him on your fantasy team. Scott, a sleeper for me and someone I just wanted to talk about once again because of what he did on Sunday. And I don't want to overreact too much to spring training, but Jesus Lozardo, another impressive outing from Lozardo on Sunday,

going up against the Houston Astros lineup, which was basically filled with their starters minus Yerdon Alvarez. He went four innings of one-run ball, five strikeouts to just one walk. The sinker Vila was up two. miles per hour compared to where he was at last year. The four seam was up about 1.4 miles per hour, and he threw his curveball a ton. He got eight of his 10 swinging strikes on Sunday with that curve ball. It was a weird season for Lazardo last year, Scott, one where he broke his pinky, playing video games, he slammed his hand down. So it was just a weird season traded over to the

Marlins. But man, he knew what he needed to work on this offseason. And so far, it's hard not to be excited about Jesus Lozardo and what he's done in spring training. Yeah, I agree. I'm getting pretty hyped about Jesus. I was not as gung-ho about him early on before we started seeing the way he looked this spring. But even like the velocity gain on its own would be enough to open a new world of possibilities. But then you factor in that certainly in the second spring start. It wasn't so much the case in the first one, but certainly in the second one he was leaning on his secondaries more, which, which, which. are some of the changes we were hoping to be, because they're so good. They're so good that it was the fastball that's held him back to this point in his career. So now maybe the fastball won't hold him back, first of all. And yeah, he's leaning on his best pitches all the more. And, yeah, I think I'm going to come out with Sleepers 3.0 this week.

Sleepers breakouts and bust 3.0 this week. And I suspect Lozardo will be in either the sleepers or the breakouts for me. You know, he could kind of fit into either category, I guess. Yeah, for sure. The ADP for Jesus Lazzardo, 304, someone who has also been on the rise, rightfully so, and you can get him late in your drafts. One of your last picks, honestly. Again, that is Jesus Lazzardo.

Scott, would you rather have Lazzardo or another sleeper you have on this list, Carlos Carrasco? Well, I'd rather have, but I'd rather have, I'd prioritize whichever one I need to take first. in order to get both. But that's not the question you asked me. I would prefer to have Carlos Carrasco. Do you want me to get into my sleeper case for him?

Yep, let's do it. All right. So Carlos Carrasco, I've made the case before that, okay, he was not good last year, obviously, but he was sidetracked by the hamstring injury for the first four months, right? Hurry to buildup, didn't seem to have the same bite on his slider,

but the velocity seemed fine. It didn't seem like an age-related decline. Maybe just, you know, he wasn't quite right for whatever reason because it's the long layoff. Well, we have more of a reason now. It's been revealed early in spring training that he had loose bodies or at least a bone spur, at least one loose body or maybe several, in his pitching elbow during that stretch. And he couldn't fully extend his elbow. So, like, it seems like one of those basic things you should be able to do to pitch at a major league level, and he wasn't able to do it.

And he's had surgery since then to remove that loose body slash bodies, and now his elbow feels great, he says. And his velocity has been higher than it normally is for this time in the spring. I know the results haven't been good, but that doesn't matter nearly as much to me as how he's feeling given the track record that he has. Yeah, he was quoted recently saying it's completely different from last year, referring to his elbows. So, yeah, just full offseason of being healthy for Carlos Carrasco. And, you know, just a couple of years ago, 2020, it was only 12 starts, but he was the top 30 starting pitcher that year. So, I mean, we're really not far removed from a very productive pitcher in

Carrasco. Yeah. Like I said, the track record, you look at basically the for the better part of the last decade, right? There was last year where he had the elbow thing going on in addition to the hamstring. And there was 2019, which was the year when he was diagnosed with leukemia and had to shut it down then. So clearly it wasn't healthy then,

but otherwise, you go back to 2013 the last time he had a season where on a per-star basis, he was anything less than, you know, high-end. I end. So, you know, dating back to, see, I could give you the numbers, dating back to 2014, even with those two not very good partial seasons mixed in, a 354 ERA 113 whip and 10.1K per 9, that's a great track record. And because two of the last three years have been, have gone the way they have for Carasco, I think people are forgetting just how consistent he used to be.

Yeah, and you don't need him to be that too, where you're getting him. His ADP is 272.2.2. we'd love for that to be the case. If it turns out, you know, Carrasco's healthy and he pitches to that level again, we'd love it. That's part of the reason why he's a sleeper here. But again, I mean, you just draft him as late as he's going and you hope for the best there. And same thing being said, Scott, for Alex Cobb. Someone I feel like we're all collectively excited about joining the San Francisco Giants. They've done great work with starting pitchers the past couple of seasons getting the most out of someone like Kevin Galsman,

who relies very heavily on the splitter. Same thing for Alex Cobb. And Cobb was actually pretty good. last year, too. 3.76 ERA, 98 strikeouts, over 93 and a third. Endings pitched gets a good amount of ground balls, 53% last season. He had a career high in terms of his swinging strike rate.

So there's a lot to like. He's got to stay on the field. He's someone who also deals with quite a bit of injuries. But great ballpark to pitch in, great organization to pitch for, should have a ton of run support with the San Francisco Giants. Scott, how would you rank those three? Cobb, Lazardo, and Carlos Carrasco.

I like them all. I do perceive Cobb to have the least upside of the three. I'm hoping the Giants can turn out like an Anthony Descliffeani stat line for him, which would be great, but it wouldn't be quite the upside that I imagine the other two having. So I go Carasco, Luzardo, and Cobb third. Okay, and for all three of these pitchers, do you want them as one of your starters? let's say in a head-to-point league where you start five pitchers, or do you want them more as bench options?

Oh, bench options. Okay. Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah, I mean, look, they could emerge as starters. Yeah. These are, this is the range of pitchers where last year, you know, we were talking about like Trevor Rogers and Carlos Rodon, Logan Webb. I think Robbie Ray was in that group.

Like, those were the four big split. Those were the four pitchers who were making a splash last spring. And, you know, if you drafted early, you were picking them up off the waiver wire. And obviously, they all turned out to be major finds in fantasy. Oh, Freddie Peralta was part of that group, too. It's funny, I was looking at, because I, heading into the weekend, I wrote my deep sleepers piece. I have 30 deep sleepers all drafted, more or less outside the top 300. and I was looking back at last year's version of that article

and all five of those pitchers were in it. Nice. In addition to like Joey Votto and Tyler O'Neill, more hits than you'd expect for a deep sleeper's piece. I was pretty happy to see that. But yeah, it's just funny to put yourself, put your mind in that place exactly a year ago and imagine those pitchers being,

valued at the level like a like a Jesus Lazzardo or Carlos Carrasco is now. Yep, for sure. All right, Scott, I know you have a few slugging hitters here that you want to get to a first baseman and a catcher. Who are those sleepers? All right. So Luke Voigt is the first baseman. And I mean, can you look up the latest ADP since the trade, which was...

Yeah, so I'm looking at the past week, NFBC ADP, And for Luke Voight, it's 217.66. Round 18. Round 18 of a 12 team league, yep. Still outside the top 200. That's just, that's amazing. So clearly, I mean, look, that NFBC is just one source, and obviously ADP can vary from site to site.

And I think NFBC draft rooms are ordered by ADP, or aren't they? Anyway, there's a lot of smart people participating in NFBC. So it really does. I really don't understand. I mean, before when he was going outside the top 200, you could make the case. Okay, well, he's still with the Yankees, and we think the Yankees want to make a change at first base.

So what's the Voight's role going to be? And we presume that was the reason he was going so late. But then he got traded to Padres where he's going to be an everyday player. And if that's the case, it really doesn't make any sense. After, during his entire stint with the Yankees, he at 271 with a 901 OPS and homered more often, as in on a per plate appearance basis,

more often than Matt Olson during that time. So top five potential among first basement. I think he deserves to go 80 to 100 picks earlier than he's going. 1,000%. I'm with these guys. I don't understand what people are looking at here when it comes to Luke Voigt. He's got to stay in the field.

He's another one. He's dealt with a bunch of injuries last year, a torn meniscus in his left knee, strain right oblique. He's also had some foot issues that he's played with. But when he's been on the field, Scott, you highlighted just how good Luke Voight was with the Yankees and now likely to be the everyday DH for the San Diego Padres. He actually crushed his first home run of spring training over the weekend as well. So Scott has Luke Void 132nd overall on his rankings.

I have him 137th. Who is that catcher? I know you have a slugging catcher you like as well. Yep, Mitch Garver, Mitch Garver, who had a two-homeer game over the weekend, I believe. So all the sleepers stepping up in spring, except for Carlos Carrasco, I guess. But, you know, that's fine, that's fine. He's healthy. That's the important thing.

Yeah, Mitch Garver, yeah, he's going to play more at the Rangers. That's the bottom line. He should have played more with the twins, and obviously injuries prevented that from happening to some degree. But even when he was healthy last year, it seemed like he was splitting at bat's 50-50, with Ryan Jeffers. For reasons I don't understand, I guess they wanted to develop Jeffers, but I mean,

it's not like Mitch Garver is bad defensively. His pitch frame rating is, I think it's like 93rd percentile, or was last year, according to Stackcasts. So I think the Rangers appreciate that. They have a greater appreciation for what Garver could do than maybe the twins did. And at the plate,

there really shouldn't be much question what he could do. do. The only catchers who had a higher OPS than Garver last year were Yasmani Grundal, who of course walks a ton, and Buster Posey, who's retired now. So, yeah, he had a better OPS than Salvador Perez with all this home runs he hit. And was even better, Garver was, in 2019. 31 home runs in only 93 games, a 9.95 OPS that year. And I should point out, like, he got off, he was one of those players,

Garver was who got off to a miserable start last April when offensive numbers were down across the league. From April 28th on, Garver had a 991 OPS. So it was basically as good as he was in 2019 just without the playing time. Yeah, look, Garver, he's been awesome. When he's on the field, he's another one. Has to stay healthy, but he crushes the ball.

Lots of fly balls, strong average exit velocity. a 17.4% barrel rate last year for Mitch Garver that was second to only Mike Zanino at the catcher position. It was better than Salvador Bres. I mean, that's just how good on a per plate appearance basis that Mitch Garver was last season. Scott, would you rather have Mitch Garver or

I think this one's an easy one, but for 80p's sake, Tyler Stevenson? Yeah, definitely Garver. How about Garver versus Cabr-Ruette Ruiz, who's still going about 33 picks ahead of Mitch Garver? So I think I kept Cabin Ruiz ahead in points leagues because the strikeout rate is so low. And that obviously gives him a big advantage in that scoring format. But I think I'm talking myself out of that. I'm really excited about what Garver can do with the team that he genuinely wants to play him every day.

To the point that I think I'll spend a lot of time at DH when he needs a day off. because who else, you know, it's not like they have a lot of viable DH options. Willie Calhoun, I guess, is expected to get most of the starts there. But Garver could get some of them. All right, yeah, I'm looking at the rankings here. You have Mitch Garver seventh in Rodo and eighth in headset points, but you can make that swap.

I've already made it too. Yeah, I put Mitch Garver ahead of Caber Ruiz. As much as I like Ruiz, I think there's a lot of potential and upside there for Mitch Garver. I mean, basically the way I'm approaching catcher is if, you know, if I can get Salvador Perez in the back half of round three or later, then absolutely I do it. Otherwise, the next one I'll look at is Dalton Varshot, who projects to be the full-time center fielder for the Diamondbacks.

And so, you know, getting full-time at-bats as a catcher-eligible player, you know, that that gives Varsho a lot, an easy path to fantasy relevance in addition to the fact that he gets steel bases. So I look to Dalton Varsho next in round 10 or 11. You know, I want to kind of get him at a little bit of a discount. And if it doesn't work out, then I look to Garver a couple rounds later. And if that doesn't work out, I basically just take the best of whatever's left at the end.

All right, one more sleeper for me, Connor Joe. You know the deal by now. You listen to Kokomo Friday. You know I love Connor Joe. You know Scott loves Connor Joe as well. 29-year-old journeyman who burst onto the scene last year with the Rockies. He had 285. 8 homers, 35 RBI in his small sample with the team.

Fantastic plate discipline, 12% walk rate, 19% strikeout rate, lots of line drives. It's going to play very well in Cores Field. And he was leading off against both left-handed and right-handed pitching in the second half of the season. He let off every game from August 8th. through September 3rd. And so far in the spring, he's just picked up exactly where he left off. Let's see, I have the numbers here in 19 at bat.

He has 10 hits, two doubles, a home run, a steel, a 1380 OPS. So you don't want to care too much about spring training, but, you know, seeing an older player like Connor Joe kind of emerged last year, you do want to see him kind of pick up where he left off. And that's exactly what he's done thus far. And he is going very, very late in drafts. The ADP for Connor Joe is... Oh man, it's really low.

On Fantasy Pros, 348. So if you're playing a five outfield or league, he's someone that you could even get on your bench. So you don't even have to have him as a starter. Why not? Take a chance on the potential leadoff man for the Rockies. Yeah, I included him in that deep sleepers column because he's going as late as you said he was, Frank.

I'd almost going too late to be included in the regular sleeper's column because I also have a deep sleeper's column I have to fill. But I think there has been some question about playing time for him. And I talked about how the Randall Gritchick trade, I think gave him a clearer path to playing time because now the Rockies can put an actual... They get Tapia out of the way. Tapia was only a corner outfielder himself,

and they could put a bat they like in center field and Randall Gritchick. and that still leaves a corner spot. It sounds like it's going to be Charlie Blackman in the corner spot more in right field and Connor Joe as the primary DH, though, of course, getting some occasional starts in the outfield himself. But every team's beatwriter that's employed by MLB, so for all the official team sites, the beat writer for each, they all this weekend published an article predicting the team that they covers opening day roster. And Thomas Harding for the Rockies, he predicted Connor Joe in the D.H. spot, basically, playing every day. And, yeah, I think that makes sense.

I mean, obviously, you talked about how productive he was last season, how good he is, it getting on base, and how he's continued it this spring. And I don't think there should be too many doubts about his playing time. If that's what's preventing you from drafting Connor, Joe, knock it off. I agree. Yeah, let's go. Let's do this. Let's get Conor Joe in there. Scott, talk to me about one of the top prospects in baseball in Julio Rodriguez and why you're so excited about him. I think he's going to make the team. I think he's going to make the team. And the version of that article for the for the Mariners by the Mariners beat writer thinks he's going to make the team too. They've played him most every game. He's starting. at Center Field for the Mariners this spring. And Scott Service is already on the record saying he thinks he's their best defensive option in center field.

Jerry DePoto, the GM of the Mariners has said he thinks he's ready for the big stage. I mean, what more do you need to hear? They're all dropping some pretty big hints there. And you could certainly see him fitting into the lineup. They moved Jared Kellnick to left field where they're more comfortable playing him. They put Jesse Winker at D.H. At least most of the time, I read actually that he's also been taking some grounders at first base recently.

Yep. To create another potential path for a batts, possibly in anticipation of Julio Rodriguez being there. So, you know, it didn't seem like going into spring training. Anybody was giving him a real chance. He's played, I think, 42 games above A ball. but he hit 362 in those 42 games. And he's just like he's the caliber of prospect

that you expect to skip AAA, honestly. Like, the only reason he wanted is because the team wants to delay his timetable for service time, monetary reasons, you know? And the meritors are not in a position to do that. They're trying to win. They're the team that's been held out of the playoffs for the longest. They came very close last year.

They just gave Robbie Ray a big contract. if Julio Rodriguez is ready, I think they should I think they should let them on the team and it seems like they think that too. Before we get to the news and notes, Rachel Jones is leading our March Madness

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So very excited about that as well. We're going to hit a quick break. And when we return, some news and notes from the weekend here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so Zach Wheeler pitched a simulated inning against two hitters on Saturday. he also said that he, quote, hasn't felt a trace of soreness in his right shoulder and hopes to be ready for the start of the season. So, Scott, good news all along.

I know that you've been drafting Zach Wheeler in like that third round range and it's looking pretty good right now. Yeah, I got them discounted in a few leagues. Feeling good about it. All right. Shohei Otani was scratched from his pitching start on Saturday but he will start this upcoming Thursday.

Joe Madden said Otani was not scratch because of injury or fatigue, but they didn't really give a reason as to why. So I thought it was interesting. Somebody had to pay attention to, but Otani hit a home run over the weekend as well. Looks healthy. Everything seems to be good there.

Every ballpark, this kind of came out of nowhere. Every ballpark will have a humidor this season. And I know a couple of years ago, I wasn't with you guys yet, but it was like a pretty big deal. Anytime a ballpark would get a humidor. I remember Arizona was one that really caused a lot of controversy, but, you know, we started like shaking things around.

Yeah, consternation. That's a good word there. Eno Sarah tweeted that it won't be a big deal in most parks, this humidor, but the most humid parks, the giants, the Padres, the Marlins, and the Tampa Bay Rays may get an offensive boost as the humidors will dry out the balls a little bit in those locations. So, I don't know if you've read anything else or if you have any takeaways about this, but the humidors, you have anything? I reacted, I guess you could say I overreacted to the humidor being introduced in Arizona a few years ago, based on how it ultimately played out.

The park hasn't, you know, this is saying it could elevate offense in the most humid parks. Well, obviously, Arizona is not humid. It's on the other end of the spectrum. So when you're bringing up the humidity of the ball relative to the air around it, that kills the ball. it doesn't make it travel better like you know Saris is suspecting it will in the in the more humid parks and look since the introduction of the humid door

Arizona hasn't been as friendly a place to hit but it didn't it didn't have the drastic effects on individual hitters that I thought it would that it feared it would and so I don't think any of the examples he gave are as extreme on the other end of the spectrum as Arizona is, you know? So I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm just saying I don't want to overreact to it.

I'm not really thinking about changing anybody's spot in the rankings based on that. All right. That's fair. Did you happen to see the other league news that came out this weekend? Oh, that they're going to crack down on sticky substances again? Even more. Yeah. Yeah.

So I had a hunch that. would happen. And so basically they noticed like we've talked about that that spin rates after the initial drop across the league in June, they went back up toward the end of the season. And they also suspect that pitchers must have figured out a way around the checks that umpires were doing. And so now they're going to check it even more thoroughly. They're going to check the hand itself as opposed to the glove and the main areas where pitchers would have hit it in the past. And they're good, a few other things they're going to check too.

Basically, they're cracking down even harder. Yep, definitely something to pay attention to. Yeah, yeah. Now, I was, Garrett Cole made his first spring start here on Sunday. The spin rates, as compared to last year, what he averaged for the whole year. wasn't a big difference. So are these new checks going to really address the problem? I don't know.

I also happened to see I was reading, it was just a throwaway line from the Yankees beat reporter on the Yankees official site. I forget what the article was even about, but there was a throwaway line in it where Aaron Boone said that pitchers are being offered two versions of a new tackier rosin this season to help with grip. So it looks like, yes, they want to prevent like spider attack and the foreign substances, but they're introducing like an alternative that's legal.

That maybe means we don't see the drastic change in spin rate that we saw last summer. So again, it's one of those where like, yeah, it could have an effect, but it could not too. Do you want to turn your rankings upside down? My biggest takeaway about that is the effect that the sticky substance ban had last year, I think was mainly on the high end. You saw them become a little less dominant and a little less consistent. And maybe there's a continued flattening in the pitcher ranks as a result of this. Not an extreme one, but a subtle one.

I was already thinking hitter-hitter to start most drafts rounds one and two go hitter-hitter-to-the-est-all. Of course, because you know, you're at the mercy of what everyone else does. And I'm not going to pass up Garrett Cole 12th overall or whatever. But I think even more so I'm thinking hitter-hitter to not invest so much in those high-end pitchers that I think could potentially suffer the most from this. All right. Andrew Vaughn had to be carted off the field Sunday after making. a diving catch in the outfield. He's been having a really strong spring, so something to watch there.

But, you know, if he opens a season on the IL could lead to even more playing time for your guy, Gavin Sheets. Zach Gallen is unlikely to be ready the first time through the rotation for the debacks because of that shoulder injury that he's dealing with. Dylan Carlson is being considered as the Cardinals leadoff hitter. It would certainly help Dylan Carlson's value, but could hurt Tommy Edmund's value quite a bit as well. So I think the assumption was that Edmund would lead off and that could lead to more steals and run scored obviously, but if he's not, it obviously hurts. There were differing reports this weekend. I saw something about Dylan Floreau with his hip,

but I've also read arm soreness. Either way, Dylan Floreau is dealing with something, Scott. And then I also saw differing reports about who can be the replacement if, you know, he has to open the season on the IL. So I saw one about Anthony Bender, who was very good last year, and then one about Anthony Bass,

who wasn't as good, but has a little bit more closing experience. So do you have a feel here if Floro can't go to start the season? I mean, Bender is the one I'm moving up because of this. I think Don Mattingly, I also read he said we may be one of those teams that doesn't have a set closer to begin the year.

Though, given Mattingly's history, he quickly settles on a guy. Part of it is we don't know the severity of Floreau's injury, the extent of the absence. if we're talking about, you know, he shows up in week two for the Marlins, then maybe nothing happens. He still ends up being the closer. But he's not the caliber of pitcher that I think would push out Anthony Bender of Bender's getting the job done, you know?

So that was, I think Flores a good enough pitcher to keep closing if he's getting the job done, but somebody else steps in and starts getting the job done instead. I think Mattingly would just stick with him. So I think I'm still drafting Floro ahead of Bender, but I was already drafting Flora higher than most people anyway. I'm moving Bender ahead of like the Tigers duo of Gregory Soto and Michael Fulmer because I just don't think there's ever going to be any clarity with those two, and I'd rather take the shot on Bender taking the job and running with it personally.

But yeah, as somebody with a lot of Floro shares already, I'm concerned about this. There was an article on the athletic this weekend about John Gray and Dane Dunning changing their slider grip. So it's going to be more of a sweeping slider. So let's pay attention to that throughout spring training. Alex Reyes was placed on the 60-day injured list with that severe shoulder injury. Brandon Belt is dealing with knee inflammation. He's participating in full baseball workouts and will be reevaluated for spring training action within a week. If he can't go to start the season, that would help Darren Ruff, someone we also like.

Nationals prospect Cade Cavali allowed three runs on five hits over three plus endings on Saturday. After the start, manager Dave Martinez didn't rule out the possibility of Cavali being part of the opening day rotation for the Nationals. Martinez said, I like it. Let's just say that. I like it. You know, he'll get another start down here in five days or pitch in another game and

then we'll see. Cavali was the first round pick in 2020. And last season, he had 175 strikeouts over 123 and a third inning. pitch. Scott, any deep sleeper appeal for Cade Cavali following this quote? I mean, yeah, if you play in a large league, 15 teams are deeper, take a flyer on them with your last pick, see what happens. I'd be pretty surprised. His minor league track record, a ton of strikeouts last year, but a lot of inconsistencies otherwise. I'm not questioning the talent. I'm just, I'm just not sure why the nationals would be in a position to rush him. I mean, even this last

spring start, he gave up. Yeah, he wasn't great. You earned runs. right. Yeah. He made six starts at AAA last year too. He had a 7.30 ERA. So I think he could use a little bit more seasoning down there. And speaking of pitching prospects, Ronesi Contreras with the Pirates was optioned to AAA, so he will not be in the opening day rotation for them.

Luis Petino is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday as he works through shoulder soreness. There are a lot of performances I wanted to mention here, Scott. I just want to mention real quick. I would go McKinsey Gore over Cade Cavali. Even if it's a long shot, Gore makes the roster. He had another. His second start was great.

He's allowed one base runner, I believe, in five innings. And he looks like he's on track. So whenever he does come up, I imagine him staying. All right, let me just quickly run through some of these performances, and then we'll get into breakouts and bus as well. Through seven spring training games, Cody Bellinger has a 158 batting average and has 14 strikeouts in 19 at bats. That was entering Sunday.

So there was a report recently that he changed his batting sands again. I don't know what's going on. Like, originally I was very excited about Cody Bellinger. I drafted him in my home league this weekend. But seeing something like this, it's just what is going on with Cody Bellinger? I mean, you don't want to overreact to a 20 at bat stretch in spring training. But like, plate discipline is one of those things that normalizes pretty quickly. Mm-hmm.

And what's most concerning is throughout his struggles the past two years, strikeouts haven't really been the issue. So if he's having trouble just connecting now, he may be spiraling here. I'm not sure I'm going to touch Cody Bellinger unless his stock just plummets from where it already is. I don't blame you, man. It is tough. It's one of the weirdest situations to figure out.

Jacob de Grau made it through three innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts on Sunday. He got his pitch count up to 52. and seemingly came away from the start healthy. Luis Severino allowed three runs with four walks over one and two-thirds innings on Friday, and his fastball velo was actually down compared to his first start. So he averaged right around 95 miles per hour. It was 97 in his first start. So kind of scared off Severino right now as well.

Andrew Heaney gave up five more runs on Sunday. His spring ERA is up to 16.88. I mean, just get him out of here. Get Andrew Heaney out of here. Scott, I know that there's some optimism about your guy, Tony Gonson. We'll get to him in just a little bit. The Padre's fifth starter job, we mentioned McKenzie Gord is pitching very well so far. Nick Martinez threw three innings of one-run ball with three strikeouts on Friday.

The fourth and fifth starter job for the Braves are up for grabs right now. Tucker Davidson threw three perfect endings this weekend with four strikeouts. So a name to watch there. The Mariners fifth starter job, Matt Brash, three perfect innings with six strikeouts on Sunday. Scott, I know you've raved about the slider, one of the best in the minor leagues last season. So these are deeper names, but I think they have some strikeout appeal.

So Tucker Davidson, Matt Brash. Brash especially. Brash, I like. And there was a report over the weekend. It sounds like the Braves are leaning toward Wascari Noah and Kyle Wright for the last two spots, leaving Davidson out. Not totally decided yet,

but Snitker mentioned that they were in the lead. All right. Joe Ryan, on Sunday against the Red Sox. Three hitless innings with five strikeouts of just one walk. His fastball velo was up a mile and a half compared to where it was last season. Tanner Rainey picked up two strikeouts on Saturday. Dave Martinez has mentioned he wants Tanner Rainey to win the closer job.

His fastball velo, however, was down four miles per hour compared to where he was at last season. So that's pretty substantial for Tanner Rainey. Kesson Hira hit another home run on Saturday, his third of the spring. Philly's prospect, Bryson Stott, started at third base. ace on Sunday. He hit a three-run homer. So they're trying to find a way to get him in the lineup. So if Bome or D-D struggles, if they don't work out, we could see

Bryson Stott rather quickly. Akele Badoo hit a home run off of a lefty on Friday. Anytime he does anything against the lefty, I feel like that's noteworthy, so that's Akele-Badu. And Jeremy Pena, Scott, someone we've talked about quite a bit recently, he's hit lead-off in the past two games that all the starters were in,

the lineup for the Houston Astros. I don't, like, to me, I can't really fathom the idea of Jeremy Pena leading off when you have as many bats as you do. But I think it's noteworthy. So look, if he's leading off in a lineup that includes Jose Altova and Yerdaoan Alvarez and all the great bats they have, there's going to be value there. So just something to pay attention to you. Yeah, if he does, if he does. It may just be that, you know, obviously spring training is different. and if you're batting at the top of the lineup,

it's a chance to bat more, and they're trying to give him more at bats to evaluate him further. I don't know if, I don't think I've seen anything from Dusty Baker talking about using it during the regular season or anything like that, but he has made some interesting lineup choices in the past, so something to keep an eye on.

All right, Scottie, let's get to some breakouts here, and where do you want to start? Well, since we have so much time left, I Where are we? Okay, here we are. Let me just mention Dalton Varsho real quick because I already brought him up

when I was talking about Mitch Garver. And yeah, like I said, everyday center fielder is the plan. So having a bad advantage over most every catcher. He's the only catcher who runs a lot, at least in theory he does. Real Muto could get double-digit steals, but Varsho could approach 20,

I think potentially, especially if he's playing centerfield. And he pretty much caught fire over the final 60 games or so. I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but hit near 300 with an OPS of like 880 or something like that over his final 60-ish games. It looked like the guy we saw in the miners. So I think he's legit. and he's catcher eligible.

So that's a good. The ADP for Dalton Varsho is 129. Scott Wilson Contreras is going six picks ahead. Who would you rather have Varsho or Contreras? I would rather have, I think, Varsho. Yeah, Varshow. How about Varsho versus Yosmani Grandal in a Categories League?

Varsho in a Categories league for sure. Grandal, with all the walks, I think you have to put him ahead in points. All right. So a good bit of value there, if you like Varsho over Grandaul, because he's going about 30 picks later in ADP right now. All right, I got the exact numbers here. It was basically what I said.

Final 57 games last year, Varsho hit 294 with 10 homers and an 886 OPS. All right. I wanted to mention a few starting pitchers as breakouts, guys that I've mentioned quite a bit already. Shane O'Mack, Shane McClanahan, throws mid to upper 90s, bunch of strikeout potential here. had a 14.8% swinging strike rate last year that was tied for eighth best among starters with at least 120 innings pitched last season. He does allow a lot of hard contact. I think the

raise are going to figure it out whether it's sequencing or changing up the pitch makes just a little bit, maybe not throwing the fastball as much, but I have a lot of faith in the raise figuring it out for Shane McClanahan. And they need him. They need some length out of him because their rotation is not great. And no Tyler Glass now this year. So I think that that they are going to rely heavily on Shane O'Mack. The other one, Logan Gilbert. He's been in the news. I mentioned last week.

I'm getting irationally excited about Logan Gilbert. Last year, the surface numbers, not great. 4.68 ERA, but the skill interactive ERA, the Sierra was very good for him. The strikeout minus walk rate was a tie for 26th with Joe Musgrove. He's got all the stuff. Like, everything is there. He just needs to put it all together. He's got a really hard fastball.

He's big. He gets a lot of extension on that. fastball. He's got good secondary pitches, Logan Gilbert does. So two pretty hyped up names here, Scott, and Shane McClanahan and Logan Gilbert. Do you find yourself drafting either one? And if so, which one of the two? I haven't. I mean, Shane McClan is going about the same point. I'd look to draft Verlander or just move on from pitching altogether. I've had more opportunities to draft Gilbert and just haven't yet. But, you know, him going with a harder slider this year, You know, it was low 80s last year.

It's high 80s now. And just the way he's looked this spring with the development of that pitch, it's starting to get excited about him too. Yeah, Logan Gilbert. Yeah, it might need to add him in breakouts 2.0 or 3.0. All right, Scott, I know you have a few starting pitchers here as well that you are excited about the breakout potential of Patrick Sandoval and Tony Gonselin. Yes.

So, Sandoval had a 15.3% swinging strike rate. in the 14 starts that he made from May 17th on. That, if he had the innings to qualify, it would have been second only to Corbyn Burns. So he was a huge batmister. His change-up is unbelievable. It might be the best swing and miss pitch in the game. Had some control issues.

Obviously had some health issues last year, shut down early with the, I think it was a lumbar, a stress fracture in his back or something like that. but supposed to be healthy now I don't think he's made an official start yet

but we hear he's healthy and a ton of strikeout potential and I think there's a lot of upside there that's not being accounted for by his ADP and then Tony Gonsolin yes he looks like he's going to be in the Dodgers rotation after all

it wasn't so clear after they brought in from the mayor Tyler Anderson they brought in Tyler Anderson it wasn't so clear Gonselin was going to be in the rotation since he has a lot of experience in the bullpen as well.

But Dave Roberts said over the weekends that Gonsolin is in line to be the fifth starter. And if you just look at his career numbers, that pretty much tells you why you should be excited. Because in his career now, 142 and a third innings, 285 ERA 109 whip 9.4K per 9. The walk rate was way up last year. He had some health issues, but he came back in September. He looked sharp again. The swinging strike rate was up. And I think there's a potential for him to take off,

especially with that Dodgers lineup backing him. All right, yeah. Patrick Sandoval, I know the ADP has been on the rise. Over the past week, that is 186 for Patrick Sandoval over at the NFBC. So lots of excitement there for Patrick Sandoval. for Patrick Sandoval now climbing inside the top 200. And then Tony Gonslin, the ADP for him, is 283.4 over on fantasy pros. Scott, he's going right around Carlos Carrasco and Hazus Lozardo, names that we talked about earlier.

Where does he rank among that group? Oh, man. So I had been taking him behind Carasco, but that's what the questions about his, when there are questions about Gonson's role. I still think behind Carasco. I'll put them right in between those two. Carrasco, Gonsolin, and then Luzardo. Wish I could get them all, though.

You might be able to. I mean, just because the ADP, just because they're bunched up in ADP, I mean, those could be, you know, the last three picks of your draft or something like that. I missed out on a couple chances at Gonsolin last week for a good price. I just started to have second thoughts about whether or not he was really going to be in the Dodgers rotation,

and I regret it now because I think he's good. I think so too. Yeah, he just has to stay on the field. He's someone who's dealt with injuries. But, you know, if he can do that and get stretched out and they give him a real opportunity, great run support, great organization to pitch for. Lots of like there for Tony Gonsland.

And lots of like for O'Neill Cruz. So far that we've seen in spring training, the guy, he just, his power comes so easily, O'Neil Cruz. And we've seen two really long home run so far. He has the ability to seal bases. He's a physical free. And Scott, I know that you've cited, you know, he was among the league leaders in the minors last year in terms of average exit velocity. He's someone that typically hits the ball as hard as somebody like Aaron Judge. And he kind of appears like Aaron Judge. He's a six foot seven shortstop. Again, prospect in the Pirates organization. He's a shortstop by trade, but they're talking about playing him in the outfield. They want to find ways to get O'Neill Cruz's bat in that lineup. And Scott, someone that we talked about earlier as well, I kind of jumping all over the place here.

but two prospects, young players with lots of upside, Joe Adele as well. I mean, what Joe Adele has done so far in spring training, he hit another home run over the weekend. He's now six for 22 with three homers, three steals in spring training, lowered the strikeout rate tremendously last year. And he's someone who, you know, the max exevalo looks really good for Joe Adele, sprint speed. So, you know, the tools are there for both of these guys.

Are the names that you typically target Joe Adele and O'Neill, Cruz. Yeah, they were both in Breakouts 2.0. It doesn't sound like O'Neill Cruz is going to have a job on opening day. Nobody on the Pirates beat seems to give him much of a chance

of that. And, you know, it's mostly because the pirates what's their incentive to call them up? He hasn't had much time at AAA. So he could stand to have more, I guess, especially if they want to try him in the outfield. But it'll be up soon enough. and I think the upside is such that he's worth stashing away until that day comes.

But at this point, I think I would prioritize like a Julio Rodriguez over O'Neill Cruz when maybe I wasn't two weeks ago, you know. Scott talked to me about this last name that you have on this list, and that's Willie Adamas. You can argue that he already broke out, but he's just not really being treated like it in terms of ADP. Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's basically it. he wasn't thought to be a great fantasy asset when he was with the race, but turns out Tropicana Field is a terrible place to hit,

and especially for him, because you just look at his road numbers during his time with the raise, 291 with an 858 OPS, which is very similar to the 285 with an 886 OPS he put up after joining the Brewers last May. That'll play. I mean, those numbers aren't going to be, be so different than what I imagine Carlos Corray is going to put up.

And they may not be so different than what I think Sandra Bogart's going to put up. So Willie Adomis is somebody I love drafting as my starting shortstop well after those guys, especially Bogarts are off the board. And I've noticed Scott just around the fantasy baseball industry in general, it seems like there's not that much optimism for Willie Adomis. So I don't know, maybe I'm mistaken in that. but I feel like in other expert drafts that I've done and even like Tout Wars,

I think I got Willie Adomas for six or seven dollars in a 12-team head-to-head points salary cap draft. I got him as my middle infielder and I'm okay, yeah, totally fine getting Willie Adamas for that cheap. Happy to do so. Let's talk about some bus here, Scott will wrap up. We'll go for like another 10 minutes or so and we'll just rattle off a few names here back and forth.

But I know two players who have a lot of power and speed potential, Randy, Rosarena, and Jazz Chisholm, wind up on this list for you. Yeah, Rosarina is, I mean, they're both players. I'm just not going to draft probably, but Rosa Rana goes earlier. And he was one of the biggest overachievers, according to Stacast last year. Stacast gave him an expected batting average of 220 and an expected slugging percentage of 366, which are obviously not good numbers. and he yeah

yeah I mean it's reminiscent of of what Kevin Bigio's expected stats looked like going into last season and we see how that turned out for him now Rosa Rain is pretty athletic and he may be able to outperform them but to the extent he did last year

I'm skeptical and if he doesn't outperform them to the extent he did last year do the rays continue to use them as everyday player because they don't use many players as everyday players I think more than anything, he's just being elevated because he stole 20 bases last year and people are so desperate to get base Steelers that they end up kind of ignoring all the other aspects of their profile and the risk factors therein.

But even those steals, I mean, it was 20 for 30 last year. So is that something we can necessarily pencil them in for again, those 20 steals? I'm not sure about that. Chisholm, another player who I think, oh, he steals bases, so let's give him a shot, is basically what people are thinking, because from May 1st on, he at 236 with the 681 OPS, got off to a really good start.

Surprisingly, I think, because the way he looked in the minor is too many strikeouts. I thought he was going to get eaten alive by Major League pitchers. He didn't in April, but he did from that point forward. and I think it's just as likely, especially like a 12-team context, that you drop him after six weeks than that. I think it's more likely, actually,

that you drop him after six weeks than that he's like elevated his game and become this indispensable player for you. And both have issues with splits too, Scott. It's something I noticed with a Rosarena last year crushed lefties, but right-handed pitching, 257 batting average. 750 OPS. It's fine. It's adequate, but especially with an organization like Tampa Bay where they find ways to get creative and get the most out of their players, it's something that could wind up being a factor for a Rose Arena. And Jazz Chisholm, the other way against

lefties, 237 batting average 670 OPS. He's a really good defender. Obviously the Marlins are not necessarily competing this year. So I don't know that they have as much incentive to take Jazz Chisholm out of the lineup ever. But, you know, it's, it's always a lot of, Overall, it's going to affect his stat line there. Jazz Chisholm. For me, Scott, I have another outfielder who does provide power and speed, and I really don't have a great reason for this outside of just fading someone coming off of a career year. And that's Tyler O'Neill.

His ADP is 61.4. He's the 19th outfielder off the board. He's dealt with a ton of injuries in the past. The strikeout rate is massive. We're talking over 30%. He impacts the ball so hard. So it's very reminiscent of what we saw from Aaron Judge, earlier in Judge's career, where he was able to make up for his strikeout rate because he hit the ball as hard as he did. But it's just a profile that scares me and the fact that there's been as many injuries as there have for Tyler O'Neill.

You know, as a borderline fifth, sixth round pick, it just seems like a big price tag. So I've, myself, I've been fading, Tyler O'Neill. I hear you. And there haven't been that many players in the history of the game that have succeeded. that have delivered a respectable batting average with that kind of strikeout rate. So I haven't been particularly enthusiastic about drafting Tyler O'Neill.

I don't think I have yet. I haven't been willing to call him a bust because I can certainly, I mean, the expected stats are what they are. They pretty much back up what he did even with all those strikeouts, and that's the effect of him hitting the ball that hard. So I'm mostly buying into it,

but I hear what you're saying about O'Neill. It's definitely a profile that I generally like to avoid. All right, Scott. I know two outfielder that you also have here, well, outfield eligible players, going inside the top 120 picks that you've been fading, Jesse Winker and Ryan Malkassel. Yeah, so Jesse Winker, for his career,

his OPS is about 100 points higher at home than on the road. And that home was Cincinnati, the most favorable park for home runs. and now he's going to Seattle on the opposite end of the spectrum. So I wonder how that's going to play, first of all. And the fact that it splits against lefties, 176 batting average 572 OPS last year, is that something a contender is going to be willing to accept every time against the lefty?

Is he going to be able to hit 350 against righties again if he has those to balance out those numbers against lefties and give us the kind of stat line we're looking for in fantasy and I have my doubts about all of that. I have my doubts about

the playing time given the platoon splits, the power given the park shift and the batting average. I suspect it'll be good, but as good as last year, I don't know. So yeah, Winker worries me there.

Mount Castle, Mount Castle might be the clearest bust to me. And partly, it's just, I don't know why people are drafting him as high as they do. He's going ahead of all the profit pocket at first base. At least he was. And you look at just what he did last year. The 33 home runs are really the only number that stands out.

Like his entire profile is dependent on that. Bad lineup doesn't get on base much, so the runs in RBI are not really in line with those 33 home runs. and I have a lot of doubts in him repeating those 33 home runs. I had doubts even before they decided to make those drastic changes to Camden Yards, pushing the fence back 30 feet and left field, turning it into maybe the worst park for right-handed hitters, the worst home run park. Even before that, I thought maybe he profiled realistically for more like 28, 29 homers.

Now low 20s is all I'm giving him. And like I said, there's not going to be much to go with it. So definitely out on Mount Castle. You know, Scott, for the most part, I agree with you on both players. Jesse Winker and Ryan Moucassel. I wonder if now people are going too far the other way with Jesse Winker. I did a draft earlier on Sunday night before this podcast, and I drafted Jesse Winker, something I have not done all offseason in a 15-team league

where I got him at pick 170. So his ADP right now is right around pick 100, but I mean, if you're telling me he's dropping 70 spots now, then, all right, I'm going to be it. I'm going to be interested if everyone is fading him that far. So outfielders that went ahead of him, Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfro, Dylan Carlson in this draft. To me, I mean, that's just a little bit too egregious. Yeah, I was looking at ADP how that would compare.

And Verdugo and Carlson were the names that stood out. Yeah, I'd definitely rather have Winker than those two. Hunter Renfro, that's a close call for me. And I've always been higher on the pro than the consensus. All right. I have a, I had a starting pitcher. that I wanted to mention here. And it's Blake Snell.

I just, I can't get behind Blake's now. I know he had a stretch last year where he looked like maybe the best pitcher in baseball. It was an eight-star stretch from August through September where he basically just cut out the change up and he went fastball slider and it was amazing. And it worked for him. I forgot.

I was either listening or I was on a podcast recently where somebody mentioned they were watching Blake Snell on a Twitch stream. It might have either been the Welsh or Ports. Paul Sporer. And he was doing like a live Q&A and they asked him, are you going to ditch the change up this upcoming season as well? Are you just going fastball slider heavy again?

And he said, nah, the change up is coming back. Something like that, it just kind of worries me where like Blake Snell is going to be stubborn and he's going to try and bring back this pitch. And look, he should just go with what worked. And that was the fastball slider. But I just worry that he's going to tinker again. And he has a lot of issues with control and communication. man and durability and he doesn't go deep into his start so I get it you know he used to have some of the

best upside in the game he still gets a lot of strikeouts but scott I mean to me there's just so much playing against blake snail that I just never wind up drafting where he's going yeah I mean it doesn't help that sounds like he's behind and may not be ready to go the first time through the rotation so that just uh it's just another risk factor stacked on top for him so I get it I don't think the price for him is so bad compared to where it's been in recent years and he did show us that upside again late in the year

so I've taken him on occasion but I hope not to I hope to get like if I'm looking to make up ground and strikeouts I hope to get like you Darvish instead before I have to resort to Snell the ADP for Blake Snell is

112.6 so you're right Scott I mean recent seasons he was a third or fourth round pick in 12 team leagues I would take Shane McClanahan, who's going basically right next to him. Justin Verlander is going around him. Much rather have Verlander. And Pablo Lopez is someone that's going after Blake Snell. He's going about 20 picks later.

I would rather just have Pablo Lopez straight up than Blake Snell this upcoming season. Yeah, I do like Lopez a lot. Yeah. All right, Scott, let's wrap up here with one more pitcher. You mentioned risk with Blake Snell. And perhaps no riskier starting pitcher right now than Zach Gallen. Yeah, I'm surprised There still seems to be some enthusiasm for him

Obviously not like in past years But to me he's just untouchable Because he was even before the shoulder Bursitis He showed up to spring training with that And that puts his immediate future in doubt But I think he's going to need Tommy John Based on the way his elbow sprain played out last year Where he did not look as effective

After returning from it And I've seen that pattern enough times to know what it means. Pitcher has an elbow injury that doesn't sound so bad, but then he just doesn't look right after returning. And usually that's how it ends. It's with Tommy John's surgery. So I am not touching Zach Allen. All right.

The ADP on Fantasy Pros, which is a culmination of a bunch of different sources, has Zach Allen at pick 148. But over the past week at the NFBC, he is dropped. So 185.6 is the ADP. He's going around names like Terrick Scuba, Patrick Sandoval, Adam Wainwright. Scott, I have to assume you'd rather have Wainwright and Sandoval over here, right?

Yeah, that's... And who was the third name you mentioned? Terik Scubble? One of these names is not like the others. Yeah. I don't know how those three pitchers end up going in the same range, but okay. All right, so keep on falling.

We've got a drop of Zach Allen even more than that. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball. Today, we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.