Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts 1.0! (1/31 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 31, 2023

Let's get things started with Scott's favorite sleeper based on early ADP (1:55). ... Edward Cabrera has the stuff, he just needs better control (4:47). ... Rowdy Tellez is undervalued coming off a 35-homer season (10:05). ... What should we know about Bryan De La Cruz (12:55)? ... Brandon Lowe and Jesse Winker should bounce back (19:00). ... Reid Detmers took off with a new slider last season (24:38). ... Who is Chris' favorite breakout (29:58)? ... We're back at it with Eloy Jimenez (34:05). ... Vinnie P Baby (35:56)! ... Corbin Carroll is a free square (40:26). ... Draft Corey Seager (43:55)! ... NOOOOOT (48:12)! ... Which players are we most avoiding (50:40)? ... Who are the rest of our bust picks (57:15)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Every offseason, there's that one podcast where things start to pick up. Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts is that podcast.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, January 31st. Samphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. The gang is back together. Today on the show, we're taking a little break from positional tiers to do our sleepers, breakouts, and bus 1.0. If you've been searching around on CBSports.com, you're starting to see the articles are rolling in. We've got sleepers 1.0. It's basically, we're releasing them at different times, but a whole bunch of different articles are coming out right now, so hopefully you're enjoying them. And this podcast basically accompanies all of those articles. Yeah. Scotty?

It's three weeks. I'll just lay it out for the people. All right. So last week I wrote Sleepers. You wrote which one, Frank? Breakouts. Breakouts and Chris wrote busts. And this week, we kind of rotated.

And the next week we'll rotate again. So you'll get a new Sleepers Breakouts and Bust article for three weeks. But it'll be written. Each one will be written by a different one of us. Scott is much better at explaining things than I am. I'm really not. That was just easy to explain. Yes.

much easier than the way that I was breaking it down. Anyway, Scott, we'll start with you. We're jumping right in, and we are starting with your favorite sleeper, or the one that you most have the most confidence in, when you are drafting the most. Those could be all different players. Just give me your favorite thing.

Give me your favorite sleeper. Okay, well, I think I'm going to say, as of today, and it changed just with developments this weekend, Miguel Vargas is probably my favorite sleeper at the moment. I did already have them in Sleepers 1.0. I liked them all along because I thought Dodgers, they're going youth movement this year. This was something Ken Rosenthal wrote about during the winter meetings.

Why aren't the Dodgers big players? Well, it looks like they're going to start to work in these young guys that have been bottlenecking at the top of their system. Maybe with the idea of making a run at Shohei Otani next off season. Who knows? But right now they got holes of plenty. and it's hard to imagine the guy who they kept putting off

bringing up last year, even though he was crushing it at AAA, Miguel Vargas, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't be a major part of that. And it sounds like he is a major part of that. GM Andrew Friedman,

is he the GM or is he the president of baseball operations? Who cares? It's role inflation. It's the same basic thing. Whatever, he's the head of the front office, Andrew Friedman, for the Dodgers. and he is saying that Vargas could open the season

as the team's primary second basement. A position that he's dabbled with in the minors, but primarily a third baseman. They're currently eligible at first base in fantasy because that's where he saw the most action when he got a little bit of time he did see in the majors. Also played some left field. I was thinking that's where he would ultimately wind up.

And I'm guessing he'll play some of all four of those positions this year for the Dodgers, knowing the Dodgers. Dodgers. But second base sounds like the easiest opening for him. And maybe the position, maybe the, of the scarcer positions, maybe the one where he picks up eligibility first.

And that would be really exciting because this guy can hit. He hit like over 300 every stop of the miners. And like every scouting report agrees. That is something Miguel Vargas is going to do. It's a lot of line drives. Hits the ball the other way well. makes the strength out plate discipline exactly

there are questions as to how much power potential he has I think just looking at him six foot three really athletic build like the way he stands at the plate reminds me of Miguel Cabrera I have a good feeling that the power is going to be

above average to good and with that premium eligibility on top of it a chance for maybe some stolen bases because he runs pretty fast and stealing bases is going to be a lot easier in the majors next year.

I think Miguel Vargas is somebody who you can draft, he's somebody who could draft very late and the results could blow his ADP away. Fair enough, Chris, you are up your favorite sleeper based on early ADP.

I'll go with a little bit of a homer pick and go with one of the new Stallions and stop me if you heard this one before, but the Marlins have a very interesting pitching prospect I guess he's not a prospect anymore. He lost his eligibility, but he's gigantic and he throws 98 miles an hour, and he's got an amazing change-up. It's Edward Cabrera this time.

That's been true of Trevor Rogers and Sandy Alcantor and all kinds of guys in the past, and it's still true of a couple of guys coming up in the minors. But Edward Cabrera coming off a season where he had a 301 ERA in about 75 major league innings, 71 major league innings, more than a strikeout per inning. He has been, since he got to the high minors, He's had some struggles with his ERA, 372 ERA, 48 walks per 9.

That's the issue at AAA, but obvious swing and miss potential. I mean, you watch him pitch. He had that start against the Rockies. I think it was his first start of last season where he was throwing 96 mile an hour changeups. He looked like the second coming of Sandy Alcantar. I don't think he's going to be that good, although he might have better pure swing and miss stuff than Alcantra does right now. He's got the changeup that he used as his primary pitch last season.

33% whiff rate. He had three different secondary pitches that had at least a 32% whiff rate. Big fast, big fastball, throws hard. There are injury concerns. He's a young pitcher. He's a young Marlins pitcher. That tends to go with the territory. But the price outside of the top 200,

you can get them with your 20th pick on average right now. I think Edward Cabrera's got big potential with a franchise that at this point, I think it makes sense to bet on with their young. pitchers. You know, they haven't all hit, but the last two or three seasons, betting on young Marlins pitchers to figure it out has been a pretty lucrative position. Chris, Chris, give me some of this man. Hit me up top, baby. I wrote about Edward Cabrera as well as one of my sleepers. 1.0. I wanted to write about Miguel Vargas, but I knew that Scott already did. So I don't want to steal the thunder there, but

I did write about Edward Cabrera as well. A lot of the reasons you mentioned there, Chris, I mean, the repertoire is sick. He throws nearly 100 miles per hour. He's got the three secondary pitches up over a 30% whiff rate. He gets ground balls, great job limiting hard contact. It's really just to control. That's the biggest downside over four walks per nine. He had three or more

walks in eight of his 14 starts, more than half. I mean, that is a problem, but... It's the kind of thing where it wasn't really a problem in the minors until he got to AAA. You know, you look at his minorly career and it's like 2.5 walks per nine at double A,

2.8 at high A. So it gives me hope that he can start to throw strikes a little more. And I think the fastball is going to be key because this is kind of a Marlins trait where they've got these guys who throw really hard, but they don't necessarily have great fastballs. It's a weird, I don't know, it's an organizational tick, I guess, that they just don't necessarily, the vertical approach angle thing. I think that's where the Marlins tend to fall short.

but the ground balls, the strikeouts, the swings and misses are there. If he can just have decent control, let alone making the kind of leap that Sandy Alcantra has made over the past couple of seasons, there's really high upside. Look, not top five starting pitcher upside like Sandy Alcantra's had, and especially given Cabrera's had some injury issues, but I think there's a ton of upside here. I like that you keep mentioning Sandy Alcantra too. And look, it's a very lofty comparison. I understand that.

but prior to 2021, Sandy Alcansara had a four walks per nine in his career at that time. And then he just improved. He got better. His control got a lot better. The strikeouts got better. And he just improved as a pitcher.

So these things can happen, especially for a young starting pitcher. I would rule out. This is clearly, you know, I think a thing that the Marlins are doing organizationally because you look at Sandy, big, skinny, lanky, right-hander who had struggles with his control early on.

Edward Cabrera is another one like. that. Yuri Perez actually has like barely walked to anybody in his major league career, but he's also like a Jack Skellington type of guy. He's like six foot nine, 210 pounds and throws really hard. So there's clearly something that they're looking for and they've had success with this profile. So I do think, look, I wouldn't bet on Marlins hitters. But pitchers, I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt here. All right. I just looked up Jack Skellington. You didn't know who that was, Scott? No, I didn't know who that was. Oh, that's a movie reference. Frank got ahead of Scott. There you know. Look at me.

That's the first. New Year, new Frank. Watching movies. Just kidding. I haven't seen that movie in probably two decades, for being honest. Early ADP for Edward Cabrera is 233.7. He is going after some, I guess you call them boring starting pitchers, like Tyler Anderson and Miles Michaelis and Merrill Kelly and those guys. If you need endings at that point in your draft, sure, take those guys.

But if you just want upside, I think Edward Camerra is probably the way that I would go with those picks. Favorite sleeper for me, and it's probably more undervalued. He's not going super late in drafts. You know, going inside the top 200 is Rowdy Tellez. And I think we spoke about him last week when we did first and third base tiers. But I just think the batting average is going to improve this upcoming season with the shift ban. Roddy Telez was one of 10 players hit 35 plus home runs last year.

We know power is a little bit harder to come by in this environment. and according to sports info in solutions, in solutions, I just put the words info and solutions together. Info solutions is what I meant to say. Teles lost 15 hits to the full shift last year. With those hits, he would have batted 248. His expected batting average, according to Stackast,

was 252. It makes a bunch of sense. He changed his launch angle last year. He hit more fly balls. The barrel rate, fourth best among qualified first baseman last. year. There's a lot to like with Roddy Telez with the shift restrictions. I think he's closer to 50, 30 plus home runs. If you wait on first base or you just need a corner infielder with pop, you know, going around pick 175. I love it. I think Roddy Telez is really underdrafted in early

drafts here. Scottie, you're shaking your head. Chris, do we have any thoughts? I'm nodding my head. Yeah. I'm notting your head. Yeah, that would make it. You called nodding, shaking, even though they are opposites. Yeah. I'm kind of a little place here, but it's fine. I struggle with a player like Raditellaz just because last season it was so hit or miss. It was like one great week, one terrible week. It was very, very up and down for him. And that's true for a lot of hitters.

Hitting is very difficult. But I struggle because that's what his breakout was like. But yeah, I think the case for him is pretty good. Hitting power is harder to come by these days. He seems to have a lot of it. So I think it's fine. I don't think that there's like a giant leap coming. I still think teams are going to figure out the best places to position against him.

But I think there's plenty to liken the skill set, especially at a relatively cheap price. And I don't think the argument is that a giant leap is coming. The biggest leap came last year. It's just that that leap's not being properly appreciated. And as Frank points out, I think there's room for correction in the batting average. Yeah. Roddy Tillets finish as a top 100 player in Roto leagues last year. That was with a 219 batting average.

His ADP is 167. So again, he's just not really being appreciated for his breakout last season. Had you guys send me over three of your favorite sleepers, breakouts, and bus. So we already talked about each of our top favorites, which means we have two left. Scotty, give you those two other sleepers that you like here in early 80s. Ah, two-fer, huh? Okay. All right, let's start with the one that's not going to make people groan and roll their eyes.

And that's Brian De La Cruz, Marlins outfielder, who if you tuned out in September, because you were out of it, you were transitioning to fantasy football, whatever, that you missed that Brian De La Cruz came back up after a stint in the minors and hit 388 with six home runs and 10 doubles over his final 25 games,

just monster production there at the end for Brian De La Cruz. And he talked about making some changes to his mechanics and especially his approach the way he the way he kind of developed a better understanding of what pitchers were doing to him. But what's funny is

even if you don't isolate it to that 25 game period where Brian De La Cruz went off, you just look at the full season data for him. It's pretty impressive. Average exit velocity was 82nd percentile. His expected batting average, an expected slug

were both better than Raphael Devers. And I'm saying that's for the full season, Brian De La Cruz. And Raphael Devers isn't some weird outlier. He scores high

and expected, but very high and expected batting average and expected slug as you'd expect. Brian De La Cruz's numbers were even better as far as that goes. And he has a track record

of success in the minors. Two years ago, he got traded from the Astros to the Marlins and the Imi Garcia deal. He was hitting 320. with an 880 OPS for the Astros AAA affiliate.

So it looks like there's legit talent here for Brian De La Cruz. I don't think he's going to have an especially long leash because, you know, he hasn't earned that. But it's not like the Marlins have a lot else going on in their outfield. So if he, you know, if he just picks up where he left off or anywhere close to that, then I imagine he's going to carve it. out an everyday role in short order and could turn into a pretty nice find. Not a slow runner either.

So there's a chance, as for every player who's not a slow runner, that Brian De La Cruz could be a nice undervalued source of stolen bases on top of the hitting. Yeah, I like the early ADP, 251.3 for Brian De La Cruz. Rosser resource has him pencilled in as he's starting left fielder for the Marlins as of now. I remember that late season tear because I was going up against him in, the Tout Wars finals. Greg Choo-in-head, Brian Dela-Cruz. I remember every day it felt like he was

having some kind of monster game. Doubles, home runs. He was awesome. So let's see if he can pick it back up. Scott, who is the other sleeper you had here? All right, get ready to groan and roll your eyes. This is like when Chris calls Giancarlo Stanton a sleeper every year. But for me, it's Charlie Morton.

It's Charlie, all right, let me make the case for Charlie Morton, because I think, think it's a pretty good one, okay? So he's being written off, right? Drafted outside the top 50 starting pitchers. People are just done with Charlie Morton, didn't live up to their expectation, and he's 39 years old.

So it must just be over, right? He's over, he's old. Still struck out 205 batters last year. It was the ninth most in baseball. So, like, stuff. He had stuff striking out that many batters. And, you know, there was no decline in a velocity. He was still spinning that curveball at like 3,000 RPM,

still a total outlier as far as that goes. And, you know, I look at all those rates, the swinging strike rate, all of that. It was pretty much identical to his dominant 2021. So there isn't that obvious skills decline that you'd expect from a 39-year-old. What changed for Charlie Morton is that in a year when home runs declined across the league, his spiked. He allowed, I think it was,

10 more home runs than he ever has allowed before, was a fly ball pitcher for the first time in his career, just wasn't burying his pitches the way we're used to him doing. But that seems like a pretty small thing. Like something was going on in the delivery, maybe some kind of mechanical thing was off, and he just wasn't able to get it quite right all season. He did get a little better over the course of the season,

but he didn't get back to where we used to see, Charlie Morton, which is why he got crushed on those home runs. I think it's a small thing. I think it's something that with some downtime, he's going to be able to fix. If there was some obvious skills decline going on there, maybe I'd be scared away by the age as well. But that's not what I'm seeing when I look deeper at Charlie Morton. I think a big bounce back, potential top 15 season even,

could be in store for Charlie Morton. It looked like he was really lacking control. I remember last year he was just missing. missing his spots, his walk rate, 3.3 walks per nine, his highest since 2018. He gave up a lot of hard contact, and he gave up all those home runs, Scott. So that all kind of adds up to me, lack of control, lack of command, maybe just missing your spots a little bit and getting hit hard as a result of that. Now, you know, is that signs of age and, you know, you just kind of lost that pinpoint accuracy?

Maybe, you know, we'll find out. He is also one year further removed from that broken leg, which he suffered in the previous years World Series. So, you know, maybe one year further away from that. He'll be a little bit healthier this year. The early ADP for Charlie Morton is 163.7. He's going right before Chris Sale. Scott, someone else. I know you also wrote up as a sleeper. And I like Sail more. I'd draft them in the reverse of that order. Cool. But it's pretty close. Generally, whichever of the, when one of those two goes, I draft the other. That's typically how it's gone. All right. Well, you answer my question. Scott, Chris Sale or Charlie Morton.

Scott, he does like Chris say a little bit more. Chris, the other two sleepers you wanted to mention were bike. Yeah, I've got a couple of bounceback candidates. And I think they both have fairly straightforward explanations for why they struggled last year. The first one's Brandon Lau, who he just wasn't healthy. You know, he was dealing with that back issue. But it wasn't like a stress fracture in his back. It wasn't, you know, some kind of serious injury. He didn't have surgery for it. So I'm hopeful that an offseason away, you know, he got shut down, I think, in August. hopefully that'll help him get back to full health. And what we've seen from him, you know, from 2019 through 2021, he played 287 games. He had an 870 OPS, 258 batting average, 39 homers per 162 games, eight stolen bases. And you can say, well, you're throwing two partial seasons in there. Well, in 2021, he had 39 homers and seven stolen bases. So that's actually what he did in a full season.

And he doesn't really have significant platoon issues for his career. He does strike out a lot against lefties. It's like a 28% strikeout rate for his career against lefties. But 751 OPS against lefties, that'll play. Even for a team like the raise, you know, that's not necessarily must bench territory. He'll get the occasional day off. But you look at it last season and didn't see a huge increase in strikeouts. You know, the quality of contact metrics weren't quite where they've been.

but 112 mile per hour at max exit Velo was actually the second highest of his career, his average exit Velo pretty close to where he was, his launch angle pretty close to where it's been. So I think all of the signs point to just he didn't hit the ball as well last season and the fact that he was dealing with a lingering back injury seems like a pretty good explanation for it. So he's someone who his price has taken a real hit. I think he's below. He's the second Liao taken or Lowe taken.

Nathaniel Lowe is about 60 spots ahead of him. He's 168.6. We know second base is a tough position to fill. I think Brandon Lowe is going to be someone who, you know, is a pretty good bet for, I don't want to say he's a good bet for 30 homers, but that's kind of my expectation if he plays a full season. So I think Brandon Lowe is going to have a nice bounce back.

And I think the same is true of Jesse Winker, who just was awful last season, but had been really good again for like the previous three seasons before that. There are platoon split issues with him. him as well, a little more so than Brandon Lowe, I would guess, but he's got a big, big, positive park shift coming his way, or team mobile, excuse me, I still live in like 2012, is one of the hardest parks for left-handed batters in baseball, American Family Field, in Milwaukee is one of the best. I think it was fifth in home run park factors last season.

We've seen, you know, Christian Yelich have great seasons there. I'm trying to think of the guy who's on the Reds now, the third baseman who played second base for the Burriss. I'm completely blanking on his name right now. Mike Musacus? Mike Wistakis had a couple of good season and a half with them. That was a good park for him. So I just think it's if Jesse Winker's healthy

and he had two different kinds of surgeries this offseason, but if he's back, I love taking him with one of my last picks. I absolutely love this call too. And Scotty cut out for now. He actually just texted me. his internet cut out. So he'll be back, but I know Scott wrote up Jesse Winker as a sleeper, and I actually let off my sleepers,

my Sleepers 1.0 article with, I wanted to write about Jesse Winker, but you guys already did it. So it didn't really make sense for me to triple down on Jesse Winker, but I am all in as well. The early ADP is 258. He's going super late. The health is an issue.

There's no doubt about that. He had knee and neck surgeries this offseason, but he is entering a contract year. and people just find a way, Chris. I mean, in those contract years, to find a way and stay healthy. So even if he plays like 120, 130 games, Winker could find a way to be awesome in those games.

He did it, you know, two years ago in 110 games with the Reds. 305 batting average 24 homers. He was one of the, you know, 10, 15 best hitters in baseball that season. He is someone who I think, like, there are real reasons to be concerned about counting stats, whether it's staying healthy, whether it's playing every day because of platoon issues, whatever it is.

You know, he's never put up really big counting stats. But I just think on a per game basis, you're probably looking at a guy who's a 850 plus OPS bat if he's healthy. And, you know, when he was costing a top 70 pick last year, that was too much given the park. But now, you know, when he's outside of the top 250 in AP, I love Jesse Winker this year. And I will point out with Brandon Lowe. You mentioned how good he was from 2019 to 2021. Premier power at the second base position,

which we're not used to seeing. It's really just, you know, Brandon Lau and Max Muncie above everyone else. 70 home runs from 2019 to 2021, third best at the position. And that was only playing 85 games in 2019. Yeah, 869 OPS. That was second best, a 14.7% barrel rate. That was the best among second baseman during that time period.

The ADP for Brandon Lau is 169. would you take him over Jake Cronoworth and Jorge Polanco? Yeah, I'd take him over each of those guys. I think he has more upset. I think it is really close with Polanco because we saw him put together a top 40 season in 2021 as well. I think there's some bounce back potential. I think it's really close between those two,

but I definitely would take Lowe over Jake Cronerworth. The other two sleepers for me that I wanted to mention, Ray Detmer's had such an interesting season last year, Chris. I remember so vividly he threw that no-hitter early on in the season. I think it was big. And we came on here. We came on like immediately after the game

where we're just like, this guy stinks. That's exactly right. We were crapping on Reed Detmer's, the whole YouTube chat. You know, they were fed up with us. How can you not give this guy his credit? He threw no hitter.

Well, if you look at the time, he wasn't striking anyone out. He averaging under 6K per 9 at the time, swinging strike rate, I think, was under 8%. And lo and behold, six starts later, he actually got sent back down to the miners to, you know, refine

his pitch mix, right? And he basically redid his slider, reshaped it, and when he returned, he was a new pitcher. His final 13 starts. Reed Detmer's had a 3.04 ERA, 78 strikeouts, over 71 innings pitched,

a 13% swinging strike rate. That is a near-elite swinging strike rate, and basically doubled his slider usage from earlier in the season to that second half of the season. So change the slider up, used it more. It was really effective,

and he was actually known for his curveball coming up throughout the minors. So now he's got those two pitches. You know, the fastball is okay. But if he's got those two secondaries that are really good, the ADP for Reid Detmer's is 218.3. He's going behind Sunny Gray and Tyler Anderson. Much like Edward Cabrera,

I just think there's more upside with someone like Reed Detmer. So I would take him over those names. And then one more here, a post-hyped sleeper, Chris, C.J. Abrams, who I think in hindsight now, We could probably say confidently that he was rushed to the majors last season. He was on the opening day roster for the Padres. He only had 42 games above high A in 2021. And the next level he played in was the major leagues with the San Diego Padres last year.

So, you know, I think he was probably rushed. And then he was traded in that Wonsoto deal, huge blockbuster deal. So there's a lot going on for a 21-year-old kid. But eventually he did some nice things with the Nationals. His final 28 games. CJ Abrams hit 314 with five steals. That is a 26 steel pace over 150 games. That speed is 70 grade.

That is his highest ranked tool coming up as a prospect. But the batting average could be really good as well. Power, I'm not really sure what we're going to get. You know, maybe 8 to 10 home runs. So, no, factor that in. You're not going to get much power from him, at least not yet. But the batting average and the speed could be really good for C.J. Abrams in his second season. And he's basically being buried, Chris.

The ADP is 271.7. He's going behind Christopher Morel. Morel, I think, has some upside as well. I just kind of worry about the playing time with him. But behind Mondesie and Bryson Stott, I'd rather take a shot on CJ Abrams over those last two names I mentioned, Mondesie and Stott. Anything on these two, Detmer and Abrams?

One thing I wonder with CJ Abrams is if there's like, the name that I come back to when I think about him is Victor Robles, who really high, ranked prospect coming up, got called up as a 21-year-old, didn't play a ton, didn't really play until he was 22 in the major league level. But this guy only played 111 games between double A, 101 games, excuse me, between AA and AAA. I mean, he was really, you know, moved quickly through the miners. I think he dealt with some injuries as well. But, you know, I wonder if like that's, there's some hesitance there because the Nationals track record in developing these guys hasn't been great the last couple of seasons.

you know, Carter Key Boom, another guy who had some hype who hasn't developed. I think the nationals have kind of, you know, sort of the Marlins, how we were talking about with their pitchers where they've earned the benefit of doubt. I think the nationals have kind of lost it a little bit. But, you know, I don't know if that's necessarily fair to CJ Abrams. And he does have that one potential elite carrying tool. And he's also produced, you know, at the high miners. It's a very small sample size.

And in his case, only 80 games between AA and AAA. he's hit above 300. He's got 27 steals in those 80 games. So like this is a potential 35, 40 plus steel guy. So if nothing else, you know, that's going to help him contribute to your team. All right. Well, let's hit a break. Before we do that, just want to remind everybody that the programming schedule this week.

We've got sleepers, breakouts, and busts today. We've got outfield tiers tomorrow, starting. pitching tears the day after that. And then we have a live head-to-head points mock draft this Thursday night. Believe 9.30 p.m. Easter time is what we're shooting for there. It's going to be live on YouTube with the draft board. It's going to be Chris Towers. Chris Welsh is going to be here, Scott and myself.

So we're going to have some fun with that. You can watch it live. That's going to be in your podcast feed on Friday morning as a two-part podcast. And just a reminder again, for those watching us live on YouTube, thank you. If you haven't already, please make sure to subscribe. and we have a TikTok account. If you haven't followed us there yet, it's at FBT pod.

We've got some short FBT clips that we throw on there, put some highlights on there, some music, have some fun. TikTok.com slash at FBT pod. Make sure to follow. We'll take a break and be back right after this. Originally, I had some news and notes here, but I'm going to save those for tomorrow. I want to get to as many of these breakouts and bus as we can.

But Chris, 30 minutes in, we've only got to sleepers. So we've got to move a little bit quicker here. You've got to pick up the pace. We are waiting for Scotty to get back in, but we will start back. We'll start off here once again with your favorite breakout. Chris, who do you have?

My favorite breakout. I'm going to go with Riley Green. I really talked to myself into Riley Green. Partially the changes to the dimensions at Comerica Park should really help. You know, obviously the foot injury last season. I think this is always something that I struggle with, with young players is like, get hurt during spring training. And then you got to start your whole season over.

He doesn't have that base to build on. And he never really, you know, found himself at the major league level, a 682 OPS. That's right around league average once you account for the park factor last year. But not what we expected from him. But I do think like, man, he sported above average exit velocities and hard hit rates despite the mistime. You know, his sprint speed and his stolen base numbers weren't. great, but it's coming back from a broken foot.

I think you can chalk that up to that. But, you know, the strikeout rate, 29% that's alarming. But he was like middle of the pack and both chase rate and contact rate. When you dig into the plate discipline matrix, there wasn't really anything all that alarming, except the way he finished off his plate appearances. And that was kind of the concern last season. But I think he's young enough. He's skilled enough.

And there are enough things to like about the skill. that I still think this is a tremendously talented player who could be, I mean, he was a top 150 pick last year, this year. His ADP, where's his ADP? It's outside of the top 200 now, right? It's pushing 200. It's at 189.7. So Justin, there you go.

I guess at CBS so far, it's very much later than that, but it's a very small sample size. So I think you can chalk that up to that. But yeah, I think there's just a lot to like about Riley Green. Definitely falls into the post-type sleeper, post-type breakout. whatever you want to classify it as, but I think there's a lot to like about his profile. I really talked myself into him.

Chris, give me another one. Give me another one. We got another high five here. I wrote up Riley Green as a sleeper. And look, sleeper versus breakout. You could ask, you know, different people. You'll get a different, you know, answer. For me, I think breakout has a little bit more upside.

I do think the upside is kind of capped on Riley Green just because he plays for the Tigers. So I have questions about the counting stats. But I do like, like him as a sleeper. For a lot of the reasons you mentioned, you put his rookie season in perspective, fractured foot on April 2nd, didn't debut until June 18th, and all of the tigers were terrible. Yeah, I don't know that that, you know, does that make it right? That Riley Green wasn't great. It didn't help, you know, that everyone around him wasn't really

performing well either. Basically, all the changes to the dimensions in Comerica Park are for Riley Green. I mean, it's center field, right center, and right field. They're pulling the walls back there. And he didn't. it's still 412 to center which is still one of like the five longest dimensions in baseball yeah they're moving it in 10 feet

and it's still one in the longest it's crazy it's absolutely crazy but they lowered the fences all the way around I think it's seven feet all the way around it was like eight and a half feet and 13 feet in the power alleys before this so I think it'll be a nice change but you're right he did hit the ball

extremely hard and one thing I noticed he had a lot of ground balls last year 56% if you would get his minor league numbers from 2021 and earlier, that wasn't really an issue for him. He didn't really struggle hitting a lot of ground balls. So I think if he raises that launch angle, you know,

we could push 20 home runs, good batting average, chip in, you know, 7, 8 steals, something like that. And that's what a sleeper looks like as your fourth outfielder in a 5 outfielder league. So I do like Riley Green quite a bit myself. And favorite breakout for me, I believe someone we both wrote about here, Chris. It's Eloy Jimenez. I mean, I'm pretty sure I've had him as a breakout each year I've been at CBS, so I just can't

stop now. He missed a big chunk of time last year, as Eloy Jimenez always does. And welcome back to Scott White, who is here, and we're excited. You're just in time, Scott, to give us your favorite breakout right after I break down Eloy Jimenez. He missed a lot of time last year, but once again, when you think you're out, he pulls you back in. Finishes off the final three months, 305 batting average, 15 home runs, 92.9 mile per hour, average exit velocity with a 15.7% barrel rate. When Eloy Jimenez is going, he can be one of the top 10, top 15 power hitters in the game. It's just a matter of him staying on the field. He could be like Jose O'Brien was for them, given the fact that he doesn't strike out all that

much. He's never going to be a high batting average guy. He's probably not going to score a lot of runs. Like, you're really hoping that he's a big contributor in batting average. average home runs and RBI, but, you know, like we've seen at the best of Jose Abrae, he, you know, I think Eliy Jimenez has the ability to be that. Yeah. And if you look at the early ADP right now, 74.7. So he's going a little bit earlier, but man, if he can just stay healthy for 130, 140 games, I think we can get that, you know,

280, 290 batting average, 30 to 35 home runs, you know, big counting stats type season that we just haven't seen yet. He's going just after George Springer, who has, you know, injury concerns himself. He's a little bit more proven. I guess if you want to lean that way you can. Stalling Marte, there's a report he may not be ready for the start of spring training. So you got some injury concerns there, but still think there's a lot of upside with Eloy Jimenez, which brings us to Scotty. Your favorite breakout is like. Vinnie P. Baby. Oh, yes. Of course it is. And it's a popular breakout pick. I'm actually having a the olive garden breadstick of the breakouts group.

I've actually having more trouble drafting him than I thought I would. But to actually, to put numbers on it, Vinipas Guantino, of course, was a monster in the miners each of the last two years. But, you know, he was a little slow out of the gate when the royals finally called him up last year. And I think people lost some faith in him. Down the stretch, he blew up. So over his final 40 games, Vinnie Pasquantino had 362 with seven home runs, a 996 OPS. He had 21 walks versus 12 strikeouts during that 40 game stretch.

And that's what stands out most for Vinay Pasquantino. It was true in the minors, and it was true in his first taste of the majors as well. is for somebody who impacts the ball like a middle of the order bat, his max exit velocity 87th percentile, his average exit velocity doesn't have a percentile rating for that, but it was

right around what Ronald de Cunia and Mani Machado, right around what a lot of early round types were doing for the average exit velocity. So for somebody who impacts the ball that hard, Vinnie Pasquantino makes a crazy amount of

contact. His 11.4 percent strikeout rate would have been it would have been seventh best among qualifiers it would have been there with like Nico Horner and Yandi Diaz and Jeff McNeil you know the real slap hitter types but Pasquantino impacts the ball a lot harder

than that he walks a ton as well it's just a great unless speed is what you're looking for it is everything you could want from a hitter if any Pasquantino delivers and obviously at first base, not a lot of speedsters there to begin with. So I would say that, you know, basically,

basically around the time, you know, you got the obvious top five at first baseman, Vladimir, Freeman, Alonzo, Goldschmidt, and Olson. And pretty much right after that, you could look at drafting Pasquantino as your starter at first base. I do rank Jose Abrae ahead of him, which is why I've had probably why I've had trouble getting Pasquantino. I think people are undervaluing Abrae. but you know I've considered as we talked about in the first base tiers last week I've considered tiering both the Brayu and Pasquantino with Matt Olson that's how much I like both of them

you know the comp I keep coming back to with Pasquantino is Anthony Rizzo it's not going to be quite perfect because I don't if you guys remember but Anthony Rizzo actually like prime Rizzo yeah prime or like he used to steal bases which Vinnie Pasquantino is not going to do. Anthony Reza had 17 stolen bases in 2015. I might take the under on Vanity Pasquantino's career stolen bases if you said it at 17. So, you know, he's not going to do that, but like solid 280 to 290 batting average, 30 homers every year, good counting stats. Like that's the kind of player that Vinie Pasquantino can be.

Everything that was in his control as a rookie, he was great at the plate discipline. he had more walks and strikeouts. He hit the ball extremely hard. As a left-handed batter, he was awesome against left-handed pitching, which, again, is something I love to see from a young hitter. So everything that he could control he was great at,

the only things I worry about are out of his control. It's just the Royals lineup not being great. Maybe they improved this year. They've got Salvador Perez, Bobby Wood Jr., maybe MJ Melendez takes a step forward, and the ballpark. The ballpark's not great either. But, you know, outside of those things,

man, Vinnie Pasquantino, he looks like the real deal. And he's an awesome guy too. Like, go follow him on Twitter. He's like really awesome on social media. And I heard him on the Beat the Shift podcast with our buddy Ariel Cohen. And he's a good dude. So I'm rooting for Vinnie Pasquantino.

I do agree, Scott. I like Jose Bray a little bit more. But I like Vinny P. more than Nathaniel Lowe, who they're basically, they have the same ADP right now, according to fantasy pros. That's surprising. That's the way. I'm a lot more than low. Yeah.

Yeah, I agree with that too. Chris, the other two breakouts that you have, have your first one was Riley Green. Who else he have? Yeah, I mean, Corbyn Carroll is kind of a free spot on the board, arguably the top prospect in baseball. I think, you know, the profile is incredibly family friendly. If it all works out, he could be a legitimate five category guy. There are some concerns about like the quality of contact and everything that, but he was the fastest base runner in baseball last season. So he should be a legitimate

contender for, you know, some stolen base leader titles. And I mean, if everything comes together, I'm trying to think of like a reasonable comp because Trey Turner's unfair, but like that's the kind of talent we're talking about, you know, a guy who Stalling Marte, Chris. Stalling Marte. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Corby and Carroll is a, he's a little on the small side. He's like 510, 170, but the diamondbacks, you know, have done a good job of developing the young outfielders. His, you know, by all accounts, his makeup suggests that he's going to be the kind of guy who gets the most out of his skill set. And his skill set's pretty impressive based on what we've seen in the miners.

24 homers, 31 steals, just 93 games in the minors last season. This is a potentially very fantasy friendly profile for Corby and Carroll there. And then I don't want to keep throwing out unreasonable comps, but hey, we're going to keep doing it. Dustin May reminds me a lot of Sandy Alcantra three years ago. doesn't obviously Sandy Alcantra is his own kind of freak in terms of the workload that he's able to generate

but the the comp here is just you watch Dustin May pitch you watched a young Sandy Alcantra pitch and it's like why doesn't this guy get more strikeouts his stuff is unhittable well he pitches to contact and nobody can make good contact with his stuff this is Dustin May puts up

really really impressive quality of contact numbers consistently 358 expected Wobon contact a for his career. That's below the major league average. And we've seen stretches from Dustin May, especially in 2021 before he needed Tommy John surgery, where his curveball was playing up. He was getting a lot more whiffs. And he looked like he was potentially developing into a front-of-the-line starter. I love this kind of profile because I think if Dustin May is out there and he's healthy, he's going to be a very good pitcher, even if he doesn't take a step forward. But if he can get more

whiffs, if he can cut his walk rate down from what it was last season. He's someone who has legitimate, you know, top 20 starting pitcher upside, at least, you know, on a per inning basis. Chris, Chris, hit me with another one. Let's go. The trifecta Dustin May also in my breakouts 1.0. Last year, he's going to be in mine too, actually. There we go. Dude, clean sweep. Uh, basically, you know, I'm kind of giving him a pass for last year. 30 innings pitched coming back from Tommy John's surgery. In that time, still posted 80 second percentile spin rates on his fastball, 100th percentile spin rate on his curveball. So spin rates are out of this world. And as you mentioned, Chris, pre-Tommy John in 2021, kind of looked like Dustin May

was already breaking out, you know, maybe only 120, 130 innings this upcoming season, but he could have a Tony Gonsolin-esque impact in those endings this upcoming season. Scotty, your other two breakouts. Your first one was Vinnie P. Baby. Yeah. All right, this is another potential eye roller. But, you know, the longer it gets put off, the breakout or the sleep or whatever it ends up being.

The harder you need to lean into it, because the more people are backing off. And that's Corey Seeger. Corey Seeger, we've talked on this podcast about how he has early round. like Freddie Freeman type hitting potential that he hasn't quite realized yet. And he finally with the power, he did take that big step forward last year.

33 home runs. It was more than double the previous year. Of course, you know, there were some health issues that limited to only 16 and 2021. But it was previous career high was 26, and that was a long time ago. So he got to 33. We were waiting to see from Corey Seeger power wise.

The problem was he hit only 245. So he lost the consistent batting average that we had gotten used to seeing with him being such a great line drive hitter. You look deeper at it and it pretty much comes down to the shifts. So left-hand abatter, obviously, Corey Seeger. But he had done fine against the shift previously. Well over 300 against it every year. Of course, that's taken the strikeouts out.

So it's taking, you know, it's kind of misleading when you just look at a player's batting average against the splits because it's, you know, basically. It's a babbip. Yeah. But it always done fine against it. Until last year, Corey Seeger stands out as somebody who really struggled against the Slit shift out of nowhere last year, 242 batting average against it. You look at the, you know, you've probably seen it written somewhere that he looks like one of the players who stands to benefit most from the shift ban. And what's strange about that is, well, he hadn't really struggled against the shift prior to last year.

So maybe they just figured out something new with him. But it doesn't matter anymore because obviously the shifts are going away, at least the extreme version of the shifts that so many teams employed against left-handed batters. And so I think just looking at his track record, looking at the kind of contact he makes, Corey Seeger should pretty easily get that batting average back over 300 where we're used to seeing it. If those power gains hold, this may finally be the year where he performed like a second round player. Yes, I certainly hope so.

And then my last one, Von Grissom, it really just comes down to, like, the Braves let Danes Bandsby Swanson walk and they didn't bother to find a replacement shortstop. So they got to have a pretty high opinion of Von Grissom. There's, there have been reports throughout the offseason of him working with defensive guru Ron Washington of Moneyball fame. He was also the Braves third base coach now,

has been for a few years actually. And, you know, Rave Reviews. from Washington. And Alex Anthopoulos seems to be taking that seriously because it just looks like they're ready. You know, he's got to actually go out and earn it, but there was a presumption when he got called up last year as well as he was hitting,

that he wouldn't really work as a major league shortstop, even though that was the position he played in the minors. And that assumption seems to be out the wind end now because they're gearing up to turn to turn the roll over to him. Now, he did fade after that hot start in the majors, but they pushed them pretty hard last year to get to that point, skip AAA and everything. The minor league track record, very impressive for Von Grissom, potential five category contributor with second base eligibility from last year.

So, you know, that's obviously even more valuable than the shortstop eligibility. He's going to pick up. Yep, a few things there. Corey Seeger. I mentioned the stat earlier with Rowdy Telez with the sports info solutions. Seeger lost a league high 25 hits to the shift last season. If you give him those 25 hits, his batting average would have been 287. His XBA was 283.

So again, spot on with those guys who struggled against the shift. I think better days are coming for Corey Seeger. And I agree on Von Grissom. I think there's some power, some speed upside. The ADP is 198. He's kind of this break glass in case of emergency at second base. If you just miss out on everyone else and you just want to take someone with upside, I think Von Grissom is fine for that.

A few for me here. Lars Nupar, you know, coming into this, I kind of thought everyone would just have him as a breakout, but I guess I was wrong. I like him. I like him a lot. The surface level numbers don't do him enough justice. He hit 228 with 14 home runs last year, but massive walk rate, great plate discipline,

14.7% walk rate, 6th best among hitters with 300 plate appearances. And Lars Nupar crushed the ball. average exit velocity 90th percentile, barrel rate 85th percentile. And like Vinnie Pass Guantino, a young left-handed batter hit really well against left-handed pitching. I know there were some rumors. Teams were trying to acquire Lars Neupar this offseason. Even with all the talent that the Cardinals have, they didn't want to give him up.

He's still on the team. So clearly they like him. I know they're crowded, but the cream rises to the top. And I have a lot of faith in Lars Neupar. He's going to be in my breakouts 1.02. Yes, yes. Let's go, Scottie. Yes.

I only mention three on the podcast, but it's going to be 12 when it's all said and done. Very nice. And if anyone wants to find these, again, CVSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball, we're only talking about, what was that? What was that, Scott? That is my automatic cat feeder. I'm going to have to change the timer on that. Oh, all right. I thought there was like a robot toy in Scott's house

that he just like slapped on the side or something like that. Anyway, we both like Lars Neupar, and I wanted to bring up just one pitcher here who kind of broke out. He didn't kind of break out. He already broke out. That's Jeffrey Springs, but I think there is another breakout

if he can improve on the innings. Because right now I feel like that's the only downside for Jeffrey Springs, but in terms of quality, among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitchers, last season, Springs ranked 15th in K-minus walk rate and 13th in swinging strike rate. Each of his FIP, X-FIP, Sierra, expected ERA, they were all 3.32 or less. The Rays assigned Jeffrey Springs to an extension.

They clearly like him. Maybe they push him a little bit more this year. But if they do, man, I think a big season could be coming for Jeffrey Springs with an ADP of 175.3 in early drafts. That brings us to bust. We've got about 10 minutes left here, and Scotty will start off with you, your biggest bust of the three you provided.

So for the ones that are really going to agitate people, we got to rush the explanation. Okay, Michael Harris, bust. Here's the case for Michael Harris as a bust. Let me preface this by saying. That you hate Michael Harris. I might have to draft Michael Harris sometimes, too, because the state of the outfield,

particularly in five outfielder leagues. You're kind of forced to see the glass half full and upside for Harris' five category production. We saw it last year. So I actually rank him higher than his ADP. But I see a lot of danger here with Michael Harris because if, you know, just looking at qualifiers where he ranked, according to Fangraph,

second highest ground ball rate, the only one higher is Christian Yellich. You see how much trouble he's had hitting home runs in recent years. In fact, of all the players with higher than a 50s, percent ground ball rate, the only other one with an ISO over 200 like Harris had last year was Vladimir Guerrero. So is Harris that level of outlier in terms of overcoming a high ground ball rate, which, by the way, was much higher than Guerrero's last year?

And that's, it's scary to bet on that. It's scary to bet on that. Like, he's, I feel like between that and the poor plate discipline, he's like the ground ball rate and the poor plate discipline they have to improve for him to sustain anywhere close to last year's production otherwise he's just this total mathematical unicorn um that is uh you know it's it's going to be hard for him to live up to his ADP if that continues uh do you want me to keep going no no we'll pause there um we'll get back to your other two but because i agree with you i mean Michael Harris is the the player i'm probably worried about most going inside of the top three

rounds. I haven't ranked as my 12th outfielder. I want to lower him even more just to kind of make a statement that I'm not going to draft Michael Harris. And maybe he winds up making me look stupid. He was awesome last year. He was ridiculous. He absolutely, you know, near 2020 season in limited playing time coming straight up from AA. He is really aggressive. Near 42% chase rate, 13.8% swinging strike rate. I think that could lead to more strikeouts this year. You mentioned the ground ball rate, Scott. And he was really bad against lefties. As a. left-handed batter, 238 batting average, 649 OPS. On the other side of that, he was amazing against Reities,

but I just kind of struggle with the splits, groundball rate, and that over-aggressiveness. So I'm right there with you, Scotty. He's probably the player I'm worried about most. Chris, you're up, the biggest bust for you. Yeah, and this is one where you have to preface it by saying that, like, I will draft this player if he falls to a certain point. That's Bobby Witt.

I did draft him in a draft we did, I think, two weeks ago or maybe last week, because he fell to like 17th overall. And I was willing to take him there. But Bobby Witt, in NFC drafts, has an ADP of like seven. And I just can't justify that. There's always every year there's a young player who put together of really solid season who gets pushed up into the first couple of rounds in drafts.

And you look at the last few years, Luis Robert last season, Boba Chet in 2020, Fernando Tatis in 2019, and then Bobby Witt. Those were the seasons they were coming off of. The thing is, is among Luis Robert, Bobuchin, Fernando Tatis, and Bobby Witt, Bobby Witt in the prior season to him being pushed up draft boards, had the lowest batting average by 53 points,

the lowest OBP by 57 points, and the lowest slugging percentage by like 130 points of that group. And he's going higher than any of them. And now partially that's because of the stolen bases and because he's an elite base runner and all those things. But it's also just like he's being drafted to do something. something that's just really, really asking a lot of him. And I think he could be the best base dealer in baseball.

I think he could be a plus hitter at some point. But right now, there are just too many holes. There are too many shortcoming in Bobby Witt's game to justify a first round pick. You're taking them over. Yeah. Shohei Otani and Juan Soto and Muki Betts. This is not a case against Bobby Witt. I think he's very likely to be a top 50 player this season.

And if he's a top 50 player and you take him in the second. round, but he steals 38 bases, you're probably pretty okay with that even if he doesn't necessarily produce the way you hope he would. But man, a first round pick, like, are we sure he's going to be better this year than Cedric Mullins or Randy or Rosa Rainer or guys who put up very similar numbers to him last year? Like, he could. He's young. He's super talented, obviously, but like, this feels like, I don't know, you see this a lot where like similar players tend to get grouped together and Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt were very similarly ranked last year and Julio Rodriguez is a first round pick. So hey, Bobby Witt's a first round pick and I just,

I don't know, it just, it's too aggressive for me. Late second round, love it. I think there's plenty of upside chase there. But first round, I just cannot justify it. This is totally about the price. 722 OPS is what Poppy was last year. And like, no, I, when I first saw that early ADP, I like lost my mind on Twitter because it was the most. ridiculous excuse for a first round pick I've ever seen. You're like Fernando Tachis wasn't going this high. And he was way better as a rookie. Yeah, true.

Fortunately, now that we have ADP data from the source other than NFBC, it does seem like sanity is beginning to prevail with Bobby Witt because on fan tracks, his early ADP is 29th, which is closer to where I rank Bobby Witt. So now his average ADP among the three sources that Fantasy Pros has up. up is 15. That's fine. And there's going to be more sources and hopefully they'll all be lower than NFBC is as well. And we could we could see that normalized for wit. Yeah. No, I agree. First round is tough to justify. We did that mock draft earlier here on Monday night and I had the fifth

overall pick. So in the second round that would have been picked 20, 19 or 20. And he went one pick before me and I was upset. I wanted Bobby Wood Jr. I would have started Trey Turner and Bobby Witt. That is a lot of fun. So to get those out of position steals for a third basement for fantasy, it's awesome. But, you know,

there are still some shortcomings in terms of the batting average and likely the counting sets because he's on the Royals, as we mentioned earlier with Finney Pass Quantino. I'll quickly mention two pitchers that I'm just a little bit worried

about the price tag right now. I don't think that they're going to bottom out. I just think that maybe they're a little bit overvalued right now. One of them is Dylan Cise. The strikeouts are amazing. I think that they're going to continue to be amazing, but that walk rate is still rough.

3.8 walks per 9 last year, just over 4 walks per 9 for his career. And the second half numbers were kind of troubling for Dylan's cease. 8.7K per 9. That was way down from the first half, and it's K minus walk rate in that second half, 15%. So nowhere near the ace that is being drafted to be right now. And Zach Allen is the other one.

Unreal season, especially the second half. doubt about it. And again, if he falls to a certain point, I'll take him as, you know, a low nsp2 or high nsp3. But we need to factor in. He just had a 237 Babbib for all of last season, 263 for his career. And now we've got the shift restrictions coming. I think that's going to lead to more hits on balls and play. So we're going to see that Babbib climb back up for Zach Gallen. You just need to be realistic. He just doesn't get a lot of whiffs either, 10% swinging strike rate. I like Zach Allen. I just don't love them as much as it seems like other people are on Zach Allen this season.

Scotty, the other two names you wanted to mention as potential busts. All right, so Adolice Garcia, this is probably the player I'm most actively avoiding this year. I feel like for somebody who's on-base skills are as bad as his are, it's pretty amazing. He scored 88 runs last year, so he reached base at a 300 clip, 27 homers, 25 steals, 101 RBI. especially the runs and the RBI, just have a hard time believing, even if everything else is the same, that that's going to happen again.

And like he's 30, he's going to be 30 years old before opening day, much older than people realize. So he's kind of already post-prime, especially given how much his skill set relies on athleticism. So I think there's a lot of downside for Adoles Garcia. And then kind of a different tact here, George Kirby, I just think he's being overrated. Like, people are putting the cart before the horse by drafting him as a top 25 or so starting

pitcher. Was a top prospect last year, throws a ton of strikes. Those are the reasons to like George Kirby. Doesn't have the swings and misses. Yeah, doesn't get the swings. His swinging strike rate was comparable to Cole Irvin last year. And he allowed more than a hit per inning. So was pretty hitable.

It wasn't especially high-quality contact, but it was enough to think he's not going to just suddenly emerge into this ace, like people are drafting George Kirby to do. I look at the pitching breakdown. I don't see a lot there other than the fastball. He throws other pitches, but doesn't get great results with them. And while it's possible, he takes a step forward with that, I think starting pitching is deep enough, especially at the high end, that you shouldn't have to take that kind of leap on a George Kirby the way people are. Yeah.

George Kirby was a tough rank for me too. For the reasons you mentioned, Scott, I love the control. I mean, that is the calling card for George Kirby. He's got a really good fastball. But where are the other whiffs coming? I looked at his secondary pitches and, you know, none of them had a high whiff rate, none had a high swinging strike rates. So it doesn't mean it won't come. Like he clearly could just develop in the offseason and, you know,

maybe the slider is awesome or a curveball or whatever he's got going on. And that kind of helps the whiffs take off this year. But as of now, it's just kind of hard to project it. And it seems like that's what many people are doing when it comes to George Kirby. Chris, a few other bus here that you have before we wrap up. Yeah, MJ Melendez. I can definitely see the case for him. This is much more about the price.

He's another guy in that same draft where I took Bobby Wedding. I actually took MJ Melendez because instead of going in the top 100 where he's been in NFC drafts, he went like 135th or something. And it's a lot easier to justify that. You know, I was able to pair him with Alejandro Kirk. That's a really cool pairing at the catcher position because you have someone who can make up for MJ Melendez being a big batting average drag. And I think he's likely to be a big batting average drag.

There's a chance he gets to the 240 to 250 range and you can live with it. And obviously, if he plays a lot of outfield and DH, you're going to get a lot of counting stats relative to other catchers. But catchers who hit 220 with 20 to 25 home runs, that's not that hard to find. It's certainly not worth paying a premium for. And that's what you're doing. You're expecting him to take a big step forward. And I just, I don't necessarily think he's ready for that yet.

The other guy for me, I love Tyler Glass now. I love watching him pitch. He's incredible. I think he's going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. When he's on, he's very rarely not on. when he's on, he's as good as anybody. He has a 305 ERA and a 34% strikeout rate since getting to Tampa Bay. The problem is he's starting 268 innings across five seasons since getting to Tampa Bay.

He's had one season basically where he didn't have injury issues, and that was 2020, the shortened season. You can say, okay, the sticky stuff ban, and that was why he blew out his elbow in 2021. Given his history, especially with elbow and forearm issues, I don't necessarily know if it's quite a clear cut, you know, this was the reason. It might have just been something that was bound to happen. And I just, I can't pay, you know, a top 80 pick for a guy or top 90 pick, whatever it is, for a guy who just has not been able to stay healthy. It's been placed on the aisle with the following injuries.

Right shoulder missed a month. Right forearm missed four months. Right elbow missed 15 months with Tommy John surgery. Maybe the surgery fixed it. I think he's going to be really good when he's on the mound. I just don't think he's going to be on the. the mound enough to justify his price. Wait, Chris, you're fading a player for injury reasons?

Yeah. Yeah. When it's repeated arm injuries for a pitcher who throws 99 miles an hour, yeah, I think that's a reasonable enough thing. This is not Byron Buxton keeps running into the wall slash his teammates. You know, this is a pitcher doing a very violent pitching motion who keeps getting hurt. I think that's a reasonable thing to be skeptical of. Yeah, that's fair. It's a little tongue and cheek there.

The early ADP for Tyler Glass Now is 87 as the 28 starting pitcher off the board. I think Glassnow versus Robbie Ray is a very real conversation. They're going back to back picks. Do you guys have an early lean on those two? I can't say I necessarily love either of them. Right. I think I'd probably go with Glass now in that position just because I don't see much reason to be excited about Robbie Ray. but it kind of depends on what I have so far, I guess.

I think I go Ray. I kind of don't love that range at starting pitcher. Like I don't love Trista McKenzie's price. I don't love Robbie Ray's price. I don't really love George Kirby's price. So I probably just kind of skip that range. Yeah, I've been doing that too. I usually wind up with two of the top 25 starters.

And then I take a little break and I jump back in on, you know, Lance Lynn and Hazis Lazzardo and all those fun guys. So, well, I don't know how many times Lance Lynn's been referred to as fun, but I just did it. So there you go. We're going to wrap there. I'm going to draft a lot of Len this year. Yeah, I think he's going pretty. Underrated.

Yes, I think he's underrated as well. If you want to read about more players, sleepers, breakouts, and bust again, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.