Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts 1.0! Target Royce Lewis? Fade Cody Bellinger? (2/1 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 1, 2024

Our first sleeper is Alex Kirilloff from Chris (4:38)! ... Is Nick Pivetta done fooling us (7:54)? ... Chris Paddack is a late-round pitcher while Mitch Garver is undervalued (12:55). ... What can we expect from Luis Severino and Erick Fedde (21:15)? ... Frank has his eye on Trevor Story, Shōta Imanaga and Cristopher Sanchez as sleepers (27:15). ... News (32:07): James Paxton will get less guaranteed money from the Dodgers after they found a medical issue. ... Let's move over to breakouts, starting with Royce Lewis and Tarik Skubal (37:05). ... Can all these Pirates break out (44:10)? ... Chris reminds us why he loves Riley Greene (41:52). ... Frank's breakouts include Bobby Miller, Michael King and Bryan Woo (52:25). ... We wrap up with busts, starting with Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt (57:48). ... Elly De La Cruz might be overvalued (1:00:25). ... Why are the guys fading Joe Ryan, Blake Snell and Spencer Steer (1:04:02)? ... Frank is looking to fade Abrams, Nola and Friedl (1:10:15). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Here we go, sleepers, breakouts, and busts 1.0. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today and welcome to February. Frank Scott and Chris here on Thursday, February 1st,

before we get into the meat of today's podcast. you guessed it, sleepers, breakouts, and bust. Congrats to Scotty. That's right on being a finalist for the FSWA Fantasy Baseball article of the year. Scott, which article was it in case the masses want to go check it out? Well, Frank, it was an article that,

one night, I haven't really written an article quite like this before, but basically it was called, does anybody like to trade anymore on changing attitudes toward a one-time staple? And yeah, I was kind of brought about by me getting frustrated with the trading process in fantasy, how nobody responds to trades and how I no longer am excited when I see a trade offer in my inbox and how the whole thing has just come to feel like a necessary evil when, I don't know about you,

but when I first started in fantasy, it was the draw trading players. And I don't know, people just don't seem to be into it like they used to. And I kind of go through my whole history of trading. I talk to Fred Zinky, who's a great fantasy player and mostly known for trading. He trades his way to success, which is how I feel like it first started out for me, too. And even he's kind of soured on trading in recent years, it seems like. Got a lot of comments from people on Twitter that were incorporated into the article. They kind of drove the discussion.

And I thought it came out really well. that's why I entered it into this contest. And yeah, I'm one of the finalists for Best Baseball article. Go read it if you haven't. And we'll see if I pull out the win. I will say the last time I won an FSWA writing award was 2009. So if I win here in 2024, I got to imagine that sets some kind of record for the longest gap between FSWA writing. awards, I don't know. I'm just glad you started writing well again, Scott.

Yeah, I was in real funk there for 15 years. I don't know what happened. Jeez, 2009, that was the year I graduated high school. So just to put that in perspective, you've come a long way, Scott. Congrats. I hope you pull it off. Let's get into it. Chris, you will start us off with your latest definition of a sleeper, if you want to provide that, if not. And then you can jump in and give us the first name that you want to talk about. one of the sleepers on your list? Well, sleepers are the most fun one to talk about because they're, for me,

at least, there are relatively low stakes. You know, these are the way I tend to view it and everybody's definition is different. At least for my sleepers 1.0, which is up on CBSSports.com right now. And if you subscribe to the fantasy baseball today newsletter, we're sending one out,

I believe, Thursday morning with all of our sleeper picks. So make sure you check that out. And for me, I went with just, anyone outside the top 250 and 80p. As we get closer to the season, I might start to expand that definition

and just go with the, ah, whoever's undervalued. But for my first one, I want to stick with a specific criteria. And so it's late round targets. However, then I break it down within that. So I've got like bounce back candidates, classic late round sleepers,

post type prospects. I like to, you know, target different types of sleepers, different archetypes. And so my first one is going with the post type sleeper or post type prospect, I guess. He's not really a prospect anymore. But Alex Kierloff outfielder slash first baseman for the Minnesota Twins. I believe he's just first base eligible this season.

Started to finally hit at the major league level last season, put up like an 893 OPS with pretty good underlying stats that mostly back up what was like a 20 to 25 Homer Pace for him now. you probably need more than that for him to be anything more than a fourth or fifth outfielder and kind of a fringe fantasy starter. But we are talking about a guy who we've been hyping for a long time, hit 324 with a 525 slugging percentage at the minor league level, or in the minors. So I just, it's a bet on a profile that has produced at the major league level in limited opportunities. And he just needs to stay healthy.

You know, if Alex Kierloff had stayed healthy last season, I think you would have had a nice season. And there are playing time concerns. That's why he's going so late. But I think he's a pretty good hitter who has room to grow into, you know, potentially a 25 homer bat with decent batting average potential. First off, tremendous birthday for Alex Kierloff, November 9. Shout out to my Scorpio's out there. And I think you said 893 OPS, Chris, but it was a 793 OPS last year. But the point is valid. He hits for batting average and throughout his career. Lots of line drives last year. A 31% line drive rate that is unheard of. It's just can he stay on the field? We did have some news coming up a little bit later on. Alex Keroloff is on track for live at bats in February and hopes to be game ready when the twins spring training begins. Keroloff underwent surgery in October to repair the labrum in his right shoulder, but the operation wound up being less invasive than initially expected.

wasn't a labor and repair when I was reading about it. That that was the thought, but when they went in, it ended up just being like a cleanup. It wasn't like rebuilding the ligament. Yeah, I could be wrong. No, I mean, it sounds like that's exactly what it is. They went in to fix that and it wound up not being as bad as they thought. So the ADP in the month of January for Kirloff is 340.

He is absolutely free. Scotty, your number one sleeper here that we have is the old fool me once, fool me twice, fool me 8,000 times. Povetta, but the new version of Nick Povetta. What do you have? Yes. Well, I mean, it was really just the one time he fooled us. 2019, everybody was on board with Nick Povetta as a popular breakout pick. Scott, let's be honest. There's a point in every season where we try to talk ourselves into Nick Povetta, and it usually doesn't work. Last year was better, I will admit, but I feel like

we've tried to do this many times. I don't know. that I feel that way, but fair enough. I'll take your word for it. What he showed in 2019 was a lot of swing and miss potential and what prevented him from making good on it in the years that followed, I think, was poor control.

The strike percentage for him was in the low 60s pretty consistently. But last year, when he was off to another shaky start with the Red Sox, 63% strike rate for the first month and a half They moved him to the bullpen. And in the bullpen, he really responded to Chris Martin.

The two of them worked together on... Big cold play fan. On mindset. And Chris Martin is an extreme strike throw. If you look at his walk rates over the years, the guy throws a ton of strikes. So when they say, yeah, he worked on Chris Martin with mindset, I think more specifically, that's what they were talking about. And sure enough, after that moved to the bullpen in mid-May,

Nick Pavetta got his strike percentage up to 66%. So it went from 63% before to 66% afterwards. 66 is pretty good. And then in the second half, he kind of transitioned back to the rotation. It was kind of a swing man roll at first, a lot of like three, four inning relief appearances, occasional starts. But he was being extended again. And even once that started, the strike percentage remained steady. Actually went up a little bit, 67%.

So he went from being a bad strike thrower two. a good strike thrower. In the second half, as he was transitioning back to an extended role, Nick Povetta had a 330 ERA, a 0.96 whip, and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings. And by the end of the season, his last two starts, went seven innings in each, allowed to combine five hits in those 14 innings

with 17 strikeouts to two walks. So, you know, obviously he has to keep throwing strikes at that late, but I do think he made a change in his game that allows him to get to that potential we always saw in him. And based on the numbers he put up in the second half, I think the best is yet to come for Povetta. I'm happy. I've been taking them as like my fifth or sixth starter

and every mock draft we've done so far. More fuel to the fire, too. The Red Sox hired Andrew Bailey as their pitching coach this offseason from the San Francisco Giants. They also hired Kyle Boddy, who is the founder of driveline baseball, and he's going to work as a special advisor to Craig Breslo, helping out with pitching development and obviously, you know, things in that realm.

So just I think the Red Sox are kind of moving in the right direction in terms of pitching development as well. So just kind of adding things here to like Povetta. Is the expectation like a sub four ERA? I would hope so. My thing with Povetta is just I can buy him being a good strikeout pitcher. I can even buy him being pretty helpful in WIP. ERA is always going to be a problem for him.

I just he's got, we're on almost 900 major league innings with an ERA that is half a run, 0.45 runs worse than his FIP. It's pretty consistent every single year. I just, and he's got like platoon issues. So like I can see him being a useful pitcher,

but I just, I think there's a hard ceiling because I think ERA is just always going to, be a problem for him. Well, as you know, I'm not caring that much about ERA this year. I don't think there's a lot of predictability to be found there. So I'm mostly going after pitchers who I think have big strikeout upside and just letting the ERA fall where it may.

But, you know, I don't think we've seen the version we saw, the version of Nick Pavetta we saw for the last four and a half months last season after that moved to the bullpen, I don't think is one we've seen before. So yes, he struggles against left-handers. Yes, he has high-fly ball rates. I don't know. I think it could be more like mid-3ZRA, if all goes well. The ADP for Nick Povetta in January, 170.

So somebody who is on the rise, it feels like he's kind of adored around the industry right now, going just after Mitch Keller and Jose Berrios, more on Mitch Keller a little bit later on. Chris, sleeper number two, looks like you might be a Minnesota Twins fan this upcoming season. I guess so, yeah. I also had Max Kepler, I think, on my sleeper's list that we published on the site. So, yeah, I guess I'm big on the twins. But no, I, Chris Paddock, you know, we've, we're like five years removed from the height of the Chris Paddock hype. But still someone who I believe has some upside left.

We only saw him for five innings at the major league level. So obviously all the sample sizes we're dealing with here are very, very small. I don't care about the results. but what we did see in the five innings that he threw was the fastball velocity was up to about 95 miles per hour and the shape of his fastball was back to where it was when he was an exciting young pitcher because you remember he came up with this high spin fastball,

elevated it, was able to get strikeouts, kind of helped make his stuff play up even though I think Chris Paddock's major league career has mostly been defined by disappointment, but that was the biggest thing from what we saw. last year is the shape and the velocity of the fastball. We're back to being, I think probably plus pitches. The stuff plus metrics suggest that the fastball was much better.

Tiny sample size, but I like taking the very late bet on Chris Paddock, having rediscovered something. You remember he had that awesome change up. Curveball and slider were always the things that he was working on. I think at the price, Nick Pavetta era, sorry, Chris Paddock makes a lot of sense. Not Nick Pavett. I'm on the brain now, don't you?

Never Nick Pavetta. Chris Paddock, the ADP in January 313. So he's basically free. He's going just after James and Tyone and his teammate Louis Varland. The twins are relying on Paddock. He is in their rotation. They really don't have much depth there. So I like what the twins have done with their starting pitchers,

I know Joe Ryan is one of my bus, and we'll talk about him a little bit later on as well. But Joe Ryan does get a lot of strikeouts. Look what they did with Pablo Lopez. Bailey Ober has been pretty good for them as well. I like the Twins development, and I do think that there is some sleeper appeal here with Chris Paddock, who also has RP eligibility on CBS.

Is that what you're going to say, Scott? And then Pavetta both, too. Yep, that's exactly right. Let's take our first break when we return, more sleepers here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in. Let's move on to Scott's second sleeper, Mitch Garver, who is now a member of the Seattle Mariners.

And how many times has he been a sleeper for me before? My goodness. So what I like about Mitch Garver is that in one catcher leagues, you could draft him as your catcher in basically the last round. And there's not a lot of risk if that doesn't happen. I was looking at my catcher rankings just yesterday, putting out my catcher strategy piece. And I'm of the opinion that any of my top 17 catchers,

I'd be happy to have as my starter in a one-catcher league. It just so happens that Mitch Garver happens to be one of those that often last beyond the top 12, making him there even in the last round of one-catcher league. So that's great. I think he could be maybe a top-five catcher this year. I say this because over, from August 1st on last year, so the last two months of last season,

he was a top-five catcher. He was the third best catcher in fantasy, hitting 283 with 14 homers and a 937 OPS during that stretch. You know, a lot of crazy things can happen over a two-month sample, but we've certainly seen production like this from Garver in the past. Most notably, 2019, he hit 31 homers in just 93 games. The reason he's often disappointed us in fantasy is because he's gotten hurt. Or his team, mostly the twins in those days,

Mitch Garver's team didn't let him play as consistently as it should have, as consistently as his numbers said he should have. Well, what changed for him with the Rangers last year is they just gave the DH spot to him, which obviously kept him healthier, and he did still make occasional starts a catcher, but he wasn't denied the playing time

that the twins often denied him. The DH spot allowed him in the lineup more, and it helped keep him healthy. He's not with the Rangers anymore, but the Mariners signed him with the specific intention of making him their full-time D.H. So he's going to continue to occupy that spot. I think Garver could go from playing less than the average catcher

to more than the average catcher now and finally stay healthy enough to deliver on the power potential we've long known him to have. Two quick follow-ups do either of these things concern you, Scott? Mitch Garver's career in T-Mobile Park in Seattle, O for 31. I don't know, you actually have to try to be O for 31.

That is funny. As a Major League hitter. And in his career, 111 games as a designated hitter, he's batting 216 with a 735 OPS. 284 games as a catcher, batting 267 with an 869 OPS. Do either of those games bother you?

He was actually being drafted like a top five catcher. then I'd say, maybe we want to pump the brakes a little bit, but since he's not, you know, I know Seattle's not a great place to hit. Minnesota's not a great place to hit either. I was actually looking at that

with Jorge Polanco being traded from the twins to the Mariners. Stackass actually thought he would have performed better in Seattle. That's Polanco and not Garver, but the point is, we've seen Garver thrive and not such great hitting environments before, and I don't think that's going to be

a major impediment to him now. And one other thing I would point out is with a guy who's missed or dealt with as many injuries as he has, it might just be as simple as he DHs more when he's not 100%. That's possible. Yeah. The ADP in January, by the way, for Mitch Garver, 183 as the 16th catcher off the board. Scott has him ranked as his eighth catcher. So Scott, I have a feeling you're going to wind up with a lot of Mitch Garber. He already. Yeah. He's my number 11 in Roto. So I'm a little lower than Scott. But yeah, I'm high on Mitch Garber as well. All right, Chris, let's move on to your third sleeper here, Luis Severino.

Yeah, I know Luis Severino's name is mud to a lot of fantasy players. And maybe for good reason, he was pretty dreadful last year when he was actually able to get on the mound. But when you look at the thing that was really tough about it, we talked about this a lot when we were talking about him last year was there wasn't like a good explanation for why he was struggling. right like the velocity was mostly there the the movement profile and the the forcing fastball and slider a little bit off but not necessarily to the point where like you would think it would drastically change his profile think he lost an inch of ride on his fastball which is a relatively small amount he just got crushed he he was awful and and there's no guarantee that he figures it out but because the stuff still looked pretty good,

because, you know, the location plus from, you know, Saras's metric still looked pretty good. The explanation that I think makes the most sense is probably he was tipping his pitches. There's been a lot of speculation about that. And look, who knows if the Mets are the organization to solve that? I don't know if the Mets necessarily have a long-story track record of turning pitchers around. but I just think it's possible that getting different voices in his ear, a change of scenery and offseason to work on it can solve that problem.

And we've seen, you know, not that long ago, Luis Severino was still a very, very good pitcher in 2022, only made 19 starts, 318 ERA, 1.00 whip, 112 strikeouts and 102 innings. Still looked a lot like that guy. until the ball got to batters. And then it looked a lot worse. So I'm willing to buy in at a rock bottom price on a guy who has been a top 10 starting pitcher before.

The ADP for Severino in January 29. So like your other two sleepers, Chris, basically free in drafts going just after Edward Cabrera and Mackenzie Gore. Would you take Severino over those two? I would take Severino above probably both of them. I think I probably like Edward Cabrera a little more just because I can see a path for Edward Cabrera like getting to like 30th percentile command

and I think he'd be a pretty good pitcher if he got there. He's just right now he's like fifth percentile. Mackenzie Gore, I just, I think he needs another pitch and I don't know where it's going to come from. You know, I think the fastball, curveball slider combination is just for a left-handed pitcher especially, it's just a really hard combo to make work if you don't have really, really good versions of those pitches like Carlos Rodon does.

So, or did. So I would give Severino the edge there. All right, Scott's third sleeper here is a pitcher who throughout his career has a 541 ERA and a 152 whip. Wait, we already talked about Nick Pavetta. Ah, ooh, the old jab. Scotty, you're up. This is Eric Fetty, who is coming back to us after pitching in Korea for, year.

And you may remember the Korean League was where Merrill Kelly turned himself from a scrub into a really solid pitcher. But Merrill Kelly was putting up like mid-3s ERAs in the Korean League. Eric Fetty last year put together an even two ERA. He went 20 and 6, a 0.95 whip, 209 strikeouts in 180 in a third inning. So he just flat out dominated over there to the extent that he won the league's equivalent of both the Sy Young and the MVP. Now, that would be interesting enough to me

to see Eric Fetty go over there and dominate like that, but in the offseason prior to going to Korea, he also went to one of these training facilities, pushed performance, and reinvented his whole arsenal. And in fact, Brian Bannister, who's a pitching advisor for the White Sox, the team that signed Fetty coming out of Korea,

compared the split change, both the split change and the sweeper that Feddy developed to actually I think it was just the split change he compared it to Logan Webb's and then the sweeper turned into a swing and miss pitch that Feddy didn't have before but the Logan Webb comparison is interesting because Logan Webb led all the majors last year with a 62.1% ground ball rate 62.1 Fettie's ground ball rate in Korea last year was 70% which is unheard of. So, I mean, he's a different pitcher than who we saw before. And if that kind of pitcher was able to have that much success, I understand it was a lesser league. But again, just look at the Merrill Kelly comp. And Kelly wasn't putting up numbers nearly as good as that in Korea. Wins are going to be hard to come by.

Eric Fetty now pitching for the White Sox in his return to the major leagues. But, you know, if he can provide solid ratios and maybe a strikeout per inning for where he's going, I mean, he's free in drafts too. his ADP is 409.6 in January, and he's got SP 63. So my guess is you're probably going to wind up with a lot of Feddy as the last pick in your drafts. Yeah, I don't think anybody's, I haven't seen anybody nearly as high on him as I have. And the reason I really zeroed in on these particular sleepers, Mitch Garver, Nick Pavetta, and Eric Feddy, is because, you know, a lot of times there's a player I like in theory, but it just doesn't work out for me to draft them ever because of their other needs at that. point in the draft or whatever. These three guys

I've drafted in I've taken in nearly every draft I've done so far so I'm going to be heavily invested in all three. All right, I'm going to quickly rattle off three sleepers of mine and just first off wanted to mention I have three Red Sox hitters in my sleepers and one in my

breakouts. One of them is Trevor Story who has who had a brutal return from internal bracing procedure in his right UCL last year. He returned in August admitted he was just trying to to survive while he was up at the plate. Finally had his first normal offseason, this offseason, with the Red Sox.

Remember in 2022, that was the lockout year. He signed just a couple of weeks before the season started. So finally he gets a normal offseason. If you look at what he's done with the Red Sox, it's a bad batting average. 19 homers, 233 steals in 137 games. He also had 10 steals in just 43 games last year. So I think we can get a 2020 season, 25, 25. I think it's possible.

The ADP for Trevor Story 173.5, not a traditional sleeper in the sense, but I think more undervalued and a bounceback candidate where he is currently going in drafts. Shota Imanaga, relying on some smarter people than I am who also like Imanaga. According to Inosaris, Imanaga led all pitchers in Stuff Plus during last year's World Baseball Classic. He had a great K to Walk ratio over in Japan. Fastball sits in the low 90s, but he throws it from a desktas. acceptive arm angle. He also has a sweeper and a splitter. The ADP in the month of January for Shota Imanaga

204.7 definitely has been on the rise. I have him as my SP 46. Would not mind getting him as my SP4 or SP5 with upside. And the last name, one I know Scott likes as well, Christopher Sanchez. Usually you don't want to bet on mid-career breakouts, but Sanchez made some notable changes last year

with the Phillies. He lowered his sinker usage. He threw more changeups and sliders, that changeup looks like it might be one of the best in baseball. 152 batting average against a 20% swinging strike rate on the pitch. He also made huge gains in terms of control. Not sure if all of that will carry over this year. I mean, we're talking, he went from like four walks per nine in 2021 and 2022, 1.5 walks per nine last year.

So maybe some regression, but a big ground ball rate, nasty change up. I think there's lots to like with Christopher Sanchez. his ADP in January 242, and I feel like he should probably be going closer to the top 200. This is one of my favorite stats of the year, so I'm going to share it for Chris, since we're talking about Christopher Sanchez. So if he had the innings to qualify, Christopher Sanchez's walk rate would have been the fourth best in baseball, and his ground ball rate would have been the second best in baseball behind only Logan Webb. Nice. You love to see it.

Let's go. Christopher Sanchez, again, the ADP, around 242 in the month of January. There are a bunch of other sleepers on the site. Again, you can find those in the articles that we wrote. Sleepers 1.0. We're going to keep things moving because we do want to get to some breakouts and busts as well. Quick reminder that our first mailbag will be out tomorrow. We'll have one every week until the season starts. You can email your questions to Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

That's the letter I. or leave a five-star rating on Apple and drop a question in the review. And starting next week, we will have five podcasts per week going live on Sunday through Thursday evening on YouTube, and then the audio podcast will be in your feed

Monday through Friday, and we are starting our position previews next week. It's getting real, man. Fantasy baseball is almost here. Spring training about to start up, so we are close, and things are ramping up. Position preview starting next week.

Let's take our final break when we return some quick news and then breakouts and bus right after this. Let's quickly hit the news and notes. Not too much going on. James Paxton's guaranteed salary in his new contract with the Dodgers was lowered from $11 million to $7 million due to an unspecified health issue. Actually, I did see they figured out it was James Paxton. Sounds about right. The health issue is not considered serious and thus did not prevent. the deal from being completed.

Left-handed reliever, Wandi Peralta, signed a four-year, $16.5 million contract with the San Diego Padres. He's had a sub-3 ERA two years in a row and had 18 holds last year with the Yankees for those who play with a holds category. Whether it's just holds or saves plus holds, Wandi Peralta is a name that might matter for you.

Well, we're trying to figure out who the closer is for the Padres. Does them signing another left-hander make it more likely that it's Matsui? I think, hmm, I'm not, I guess that would. Because I would lean in Matsui all along, given his track record with closing in Japan. But the hard, the difficult hurdle to clear

was the fact he's left-handed. That would help. I think that would help his chances. I really think that it's kind of just going to be a committee to start and like if someone runs with it, that's probably not what people want to hear. But between Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, who was a great closer of in,

They also signed Wu Sukhō, who was a great closer in Korea, too. So, yeah, it's kind of messy out there in San Diego. It feels like the Diamondbacks last year. Yeah. And then it wound up, then they made a trade, right? For Paul Seawalled after all that. Real quick, I wanted to ask you, Scott. Obviously, you weren't on the podcast yesterday, and we had some big news.

First up, how much did you lower Corey Seeger in your rankings, if at all? So I've been saying there are 17 first round caliber bats this year. They're now only 16 first round caliber bats. I moved Corey Seeger. Technically, he's 28th in my roto rankings, but I have a whole clump of pitchers that are lower than most people that might make that number seem kind of high.

Basically, I tried to move Corey Seeger to the back end of the group of hitters that I consider to be MVP caliber. The group of hitters that I want to make sure are all gone before I take my first pitcher. So that means he's right behind Ozzy Albiz, Marcus Simeon, Gunner Henderson. and just ahead of Luis Robert.

That's where I've slotted Corey Seeger. So I have him right behind Gunner Henderson. As I said, Henderson, I'm kind of on the fence about whether or not he counts as one of those MVP caliber bats. So I could see a scenario where I still take Seeger ahead of him. But basically, we're talking about late round three. If Seeger's there in late round three, I'm probably taking him still and hoping that, you know, there's still a chance he's back by opening day. It's just maybe he misses a month. I wrote about it today, so I do want to add some details that I found.

So the last three players that I found who had sports hernia surgery, Randall Gritchick, which I mentioned in yesterday's podcast, he missed about 80 days from the time he had surgery until the time he made it back to the majors, take away an 11-day rehab assignment. It was around 68 to 70 days from the time he had surgery. We are 58 days away from opening day. I think 57 as a, so like I would expect a couple. But Evan White, remember him, got traded this offseason. A couple times. He missed 53 days between the time he had surgery and the time he was ready to play in the minors. So that's one that like maybe he gets in five spring training games and could be ready for opening day. On the other side, you have Trevor Larnack who missed 83 days between his surgery and.

returning to game action, which would be more like a late April return. So I would say anything from opening day is really iffy to the first month, I think is probably what we're looking at. The other news we had yesterday, Scott, was Walker Bueller. We found out the start of his season could be delayed. Did you wind up lowering Walker Bueller at all? Yeah, I also lowered him quite a bit. Now, to be clear, it sounds like this is more about we'd rather, we're going to have to limit his

innings this year, we'd rather save them for the postseason than use them up in April. So I don't think there's anything to worry about. I was going to say, Frank, you looked a little fuzzy. Yeah, I'm trying to fix my auto focus right now, but continue on. Other than the fact that, you know, he's coming back for a second time of John surgery. So I dropped him a whole tier. He is now behind Dylan Cs right around the crystal line. Yeah, I think I dropped him right between Carlos Ordone and.

Chris Sale, he's at SP39. So definitely moved Walker Bueller down a little bit as well. Let's get into our breakouts 1.0, and we will start with Chris's first breakout. Actually, on both of your breakouts list, but I guess Chris will get the first shot here. What do you know? Another Minnesota twin, Royce Lewis.

Yeah, they're Minnesota nice. Yeah, I think the thing with Royce Lewis is like, if you look at the underlying stats, you can poke a hole and say, oh, he's not as good as he's looked, but like the degree of difficulty for what Royce Lewis has done, not just in his major league career, but just as a professional. I mean, things were pretty good when he was the number one pick. Pretty much everything's gone wrong for Royce Lewis since.

He had the COVID season that he missed. He's torn his ACL twice. He's played 420 games as a professional, despite being drafted. drafted in 2017. That's a long time ago. And yet all he's done in the high miners, all he's done since getting to the majors is just crush the ball. It's one where,

you know, I'll get told to like pull my head out of my spreadsheets and watch the game. And this is very much a, just watch the game. Just watch Royce Lewis and look at his, his poise, his control. Like it just,

what he's done in limited sample sizes, given the degree of difficulty in the circumstances that he's faced, I just, it's hard to bet against. Is he going to hit 310 forever? Probably not. Is he going to have a 9-13 OPS forever? Probably not. But he's clearly an incredibly talented hitter who's got a little bit of speed,

who's going to hit the ball hard. I think Royce Lewis is just an absolute star. My lazy analysis for Lewis is that he's played 70 career games and has hit 17 home runs with six deals. if you double that, 34 homers, 12 steals, with a batting average over 300. I mean, the guy absolutely has it, Chris.

I know what you're talking about. Four grand slams last year. Also hit four postseason home runs and only six games. He was two grand slams away from the Major League record for a season, and he played, what, 50 games? 58 games.

So since we're tossing around Lewis stats, let me share my two favorite. He, counting the playoffs, he homered 15 times in his final 32 games last season, which is amazing. Not necessarily predictive, but amazing. Still, I mean, the enthusiasm isn't just about that one hot streak. He's had five different stops since returning from the first torn ACL, one double A, two

AAA, two majors. His lowest batting average at any of those five stops was 300. His lowest OPS at any of those five stops was 867. So, like, he's, he hasn't had a bad performance. yet since tearing that ACL for the first time. And to be clear, I said, like, you can look at the underlying numbers and poke. Like, the underlying numbers are still very good. You know, he had a 265XBA.

That's not great. But XISO was over 200. The power's real. Exi velocity. Like, I don't want to undersell the skill set as well. I think it's very, very good. In addition to, I don't know how much all of that matters because he's been playing so sporadically. that the fact that he's been able to not just keep his head above water,

but Star is incredible. Having said all that, there's no way I can justify taking Royce Lewis over Manny Machado. So I'm probably not actually going to draft much, Royce Lewis, even though I have him as a breakout candidate. Yeah, I have Machado ahead, yeah. I was going to rain on everyone's parade

and just let you know that I have Royce Lewis in my bus column because I hate young players, apparently. I have lots of names on there that are young, but I don't want to spend a top 60 pick on a player who has played 70 career games and has not been able to stay on the field. So nothing about the talent. Royce Lewis is amazing when he plays. I just don't know how much he's going to play.

And I don't want to invest a top 60 pick on the player. And now let's pivot to a pitcher who hasn't been able to stay healthy that we all love and having our breakouts column, right? I didn't write up Terik Scoobel, but I do agree that he is a breakout candidate. Scott, your first breakout, Terik Scoobel. I don't know that he doesn't have like this long injury. No, he doesn't. It's just the flexor strain.

Yeah, so he missed half of last year with a flexor recovering from flexor strain surgery. But he came back throwing a mile per hour harder with his fastball, which had two effects. It made it so he didn't have to lean so much on a so-so slider, and it made his change up just a world-beater of a pitch, a better than 50% whiff rate than that. And what that led to performance-wise for Terrick Scoobal is among pitchers with 80 innings, That's what he got to, 80 innings. The lowest expected ERA and the lowest FIP among pitchers with 80 innings.

By a huge margin. By a huge margin in both categories. His XERA was 72 points better than the second best. His FIP was 83 points better. The only pitcher with a better XERA last year than Terrick Scouble was Felix Bautista, who is a closer and through like 50 innings. Right.

So the fact he was so far, head of the pack. I mean, that kind of makes the whole case, right? I will point out on the subject of durability that, you know, when he first came back, he was throwing mostly four innings at a time. They're obviously easing him back in. Once he started to go six plus innings, which with consistency, which he did in, let's see, he did it in six of his final eight starts, six plus innings for Tarek Scouble. He had a 188 ERA during that stretch. He got better. as he started going deeper into games. So I have him as a top 10 pitcher this.

I mean, you could argue he's already broken out. I get that. But I think he's going to be the AL-Sai-Young this year. That's how far I'm taking it. And I have him as a top-10 pitcher. I'd be happy to draft him as my ace. Spicy. Terrick Scubel, top-10 starting pitcher, AL-Sy Young for Scotty this year.

Look, some people will point to the track record. There's a lack of track record there. I've cited this a few times. If you combine Terik Scoobel's 22 and 20, 23, you get 36 starts of a 323, 305 whip, 10K per 9, 48% ground ball rate, 13% swinging strike rate. That's an ace caliber pitcher.

And he's doing that over the course of the past two years that we've seen in pitch. So the ADP is high. It's 50.5. He's going right around SP1213. But man, if you trust in what we saw last year, could get another big, big breakout, another step forward here for Terik Scoobel.

Let's move over to Chris's second. break out. Ah, old friend. Actually, we're moving into a pirate run here. A bunch of pirates coming. We love the Midwest. Is Pittsburgh in the Midwest? It feels Midwestern to me, culturally. You are probably the only one on this podcast who has been to Pittsburgh, Chris. Love Pittsburgh. Been there a bunch. Tell us about O'Neill Cruz. O'Neill Cruz. I mean, this is one that it's sort of like Ellie Day, LaCruz, except you get him 40 picks later. You know, he's not going to steal as many bases, L.A. Dela Cruz. 60 picks, Chris, 60 picks later. There you go. 60 picks later. You've got off the charts raw power, which he's put into

action in games, has, I believe still the hardest hit baseball in the history of stackass at 122.4 miles per hour. True 80 grade raw pop started to show last season in a very limited sample size. He was starting to cut a little bit of the swing and miss out of his game, which we saw towards the end of 2022 when he, you know, I think the strikeout rate in September was like 29%. Still very high, but given the skill set, given how hard he hits the ball, given how fast and athletic he is, this is a guy who's going to run up really high babbets. And so if he can keep that strikeout rate below 30%, I think you're looking at a guy who's going to hit probably 250 to 260. And even that, you know, it's not super helpful. But if he steals 25 to 30 bases, hits 20, 25.

home runs, which is not the ceiling at all. It's really just, in O'Neill Cruz's case, it's a bet on an elite talent who should be 100% removed from an injury that he will be almost 11 months removed from by the time he gets to opening day. You know what, Scott? We're going to give you a double dip here. Keep it with the pirates because you've got both Mitch Keller and keep Brian Hayes as breakouts.

I also have O'Neill Cruz. So like a quarter of my breakouts list is. is pirates. Twins and pirates, baby. Let's go. Yeah, Mitch Keller, I think the perception with him is he kind of faked us out in the first half last year turned back into a pumpkin in the second half and now nobody wants anything to do with him anymore that he already finished at 421.

But you look at the game log for that second half. And I'm just talking the second half now. He had eight strikeouts in five and two-thirds innings, 12 strikeouts in six innings, eight shutout innings, eight shuddered innings, eight innings, two-hits. seven strikeouts, like the high points in the second half were as good as they were in the first half, and they were the kind of starts

that really only aces even have access to. You have to have a certain amount of upside to put together those kinds of starts in the modern MLB. And I think Keller has proven he has that. So what was really the problem for him in the second half is he just had four blow-up starts. They were his, the only four starts he had all season in which he allowed seven earn runs or more.

And if you take out just those four starts for Mitch Keller, his final numbers end up being a 331 ERA, a 112 whip, and 9.9K per 9. I understand those starts still count. But four is, you know, in an individual start, a lot could have been avoided to prove. prevent that final line from being what it was. Like it doesn't take changing much in that specific start to keep things from unraveling the way it did on Mitch Keller. And particularly coming off a year where that snowball effect was so common throughout the entire pitching ranks as pitchers were, you know, getting used to the shift ban

and extra activity on the bases, more stolen bases, sticky substance crack down, and the pitch clock. So when things started to unravel, they didn't have the ability to change the tempo. I think it was as much a mental thing for Mitch Keller, why those four starts unraveled on him so badly. And I think it's something he can overcome. And if he does, again, his high points are the kind only accessible to ACEs. He had more than 200 strikeouts last year. That's got to be valuable. Like, even if he has a 4ERA again, those strikeouts are going to be valuable in a roto league. And I think you can weather those disaster starts a little better in the points league. So I think even if he doesn't take the step forward I'm expecting to,

he'll still be a lot more useful in both scoring formats than he's getting credit for. Do you want to piggyback onto Kibrian Hayes now or should I tell you? Yeah, sorry, go ahead. I just taking a breath to collect myself. Yeah, I'll talk to Brian Hayes. Because since Kibbrien Hayes broke into the league, what have always been, what have we always said about him?

He hits the ball very hard. He just needs to hit it at a better angle to take advantage of those exit velocities. And over the final two months last year, that's exactly what he did. He hit 10 home runs over those final two months, two thirds of his total for the entire season. He slashed 299, 335, 539.

His fly ball rate was 41.5% during that time. his pull rate was 35.4%. Now, to put those numbers in perspective, Cabrion Hayes' career-high flyball rate entering last year was 30.8%. So 30.8 was the high previously. It was 41.5 in those final two months.

His career-high poll rate entering last season, 27%. So 27% up to 35.4% those final two months. He added a toe tap to his swing. He said he felt a lot stronger with it. And it showed not just in him hitting all those home runs, but in the underlying data being more befitting of a power hitter. So I think a 25-30 homer season isn't outside the realm of possibility for Hayes. And there's a chance for him to give you 15 steals too.

And best of all, it's not factored into his cost. So even if that doesn't end up happening with him, maybe all those percentages regressed to the mean for him. and it turns out to be a small sample flute, you don't lose that much. You still get what everybody expected Guy-Bryan Hayes to be all along. I think he might be on the verge of meeting his upside, though. I love it. Scott's back in. If you remember after the shortened season, you were a fan of Cabrion Hayes. Took a couple of years off.

Now he's made some changes, and you're back in. The ADP in January for Key Brian Hayes, 162.6. Going right around Jake Burger, Scott. Who would you rather have, Key Brian Hayes or Burger? Burger, but it's close. Would you rather have Hayes or Noelvie Marte? Noelvie Marte, who's also on my breakout's list. Like third base is stacked.

It's kind of like catcher. It's a position where I try to wait forever. I'm guessing you would take Hayes over Alec Bohm. Yes. And they're going all three, all four of those third basemen are all going pretty comparatively. I did want to quickly touch on Mitch Keller here, Scott. One of us is either going to be really right.

One of us is going to be really wrong because we both have opposite flag plans. You have Mitch Keller as your SP 27. I have him down at SP 53. He was in my bus column for some of the reasons you mentioned, right? I mean, he's prone to big blow-up starts. I mean, he had four-plus runs allowed in 12 of 32 starts and obviously had those four blow-ups with seven-plus runs as well.

Just can't really explain the strike-out gains from last year. It's a pretty bad swinging strike rate, so we'll see. I mean, it's entirely possible. Mitch Keller just finishes SP-40 and splits the difference between us, but, you know, like he could just have a 412 ERA again. You're both wrong. Yeah, I think you, I saw Chris, you have him at like SP 43. So if that happens, it sounds like you would be the most right on Mitch Keller.

Chris, your final breakout, one that you talked about recently, Riley Green. Is there anything else you'd like to add on him? Because I know you like him a lot. Top 24 outfielder. No, I just, I think he made the, a big leap as a hitter last season in a way that is not really being priced in. I know the Tommy John Surger is a little scary, but it's in his non-throwing arm. So hopefully that won't be that big of an issue.

I think it's an improving Tigers lineup. And I think the underlying data suggests he's an incredibly talented hitter who could go $290 with 25 home runs. All right. I'll quickly give you three breakouts of mine. Three starting pitchers, Bobby Miller, who obviously people are excited about Bobby Miller

and Yuri Perez and Grace and Rodriguez. I get it. There's lots to be excited about. With Bobby Miller, according to Enosaris' stuff plus, Miller ranked fifth among starting pitchers with at least 120 innings. The arsenal is filthy, 99 miles per hour on the fastball. He has three swinging miss secondary pitches as well. Bobby Miller got better in the second half, which correlated with throwing more curve balls. That curve ball looks like it's elite.

89th percentile spin rate. I do prefer Bobby Miller ahead of both Grayson Rodriguez and Uri Peres. Michael King. This is one that Chris and I could potentially argue about here. Obviously, suck to see him leave New York as a Yankees fan, but it was for Juan Soto after all, so I guess it's all right. Michael King was amazing over his final eight starts, 188 ERA, a 110 whip,

and I think he has everything you ask for in terms of Arsenal. He throws mid-90s with a four-seem fastball and a sinker. He's got a nasty sweeper, an underrated change-up, which I think he can use as a weapon against left-handed bats. Did fracture his elbow in 2022, but he got up over 100 innings last year. I think he can get up around $150 this year, and the Padres really need him too. So I think there's big strikeout upside here

with Michael King, assuming he could stay on the field. And lastly, Brian, who, solid rookie season for Brian Wu last year, gets a lot of whiffs. Kind of does this Lance Lynn impression, three different iterations of a fastball. He's got a four-seem, a sinker, and a cutter that he uses.

A four-seeing fastball that had a higher swinging strike rate than Spencer Strider last year. And I just kind of trust in Mariners pitching development. they've done with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert and Castillo has been as consistent as ever since joining that team and organization as well. So I should mention the ADPs for Brian Wu, 183, the ADP for Michael King 143.2. And for Bobby Miller, it's 72.6. Three pitchers I like to break out this year. Let's wrap up, guys, with Bust. We'll go a little bit longer here. Obviously, I don't want to shortchange some of these players as well. But, you know, let's kind of

keep it moving here. Chris, your bus, Belly, Ellie, Ellie and Snelly. Let's start with the belly of that three. Yeah, I mean, look, we went over this ad nauseum last season and he kept making me look stupid. But it's funny how, like last year, when I didn't have Cody Bellinger as like a top 30 player, everyone was like, what are you doing? This is ridiculous.

Look what he's doing. And now in the off season, everybody soberes up. Apparently no team wants to sign him to a contract. Never is like, whoa, I don't know if he's a top 50 player. So look at that. No, for me, it's just I find him kind of confounding. Yes, he pulls the ball when he hits it in the air. And yes, he is athletic.

So yes, he might be a player who could outperform his underlying stats. Except he'd never really been that guy before last season, despite always being athletic. And despite always hitting the ball to the pull side when he hits it in the air. So why was it just last season? season that he starts to see these benefits. It should have been those bad seasons, 2021 and 2022. He was still putting the ball in the air to the pole side.

He wasn't hitting the ball much softer than he did last season. Even when he was really good, he wasn't seeing like, he wasn't outperforming his underlying metrics in 2019 when he won MVP or whatever. So I just, I have a hard time saying that Cody Bellinger unlocked something new and sustainable in his skill set that will make him continue to be, I think he was the sixth biggest overachiever in ex-Woba last season

among all qualifying hitters. And then I look at like the larger landscape and the fact that, well, yes, he's looking for a $200 million contract and that obviously plays a big role and if he was willing to sign for $90 million, I'm sure he would have already signed. But when I look at MLB teams

seem to be struggling to figure out how to value Cody Ballinger, who's a really, really good defensive center fielder. So even if he goes back to being 2021, 2021, 2022 version of Cody Ballinger, he's still going to have some value for the team signing him. That makes me think that my skepticism about him is shared very widely around Major League Baseball in a way that not to, you know, do a, all the experts are right all the time. They get things wrong too, but it just makes me feel a little better.

So I think he's a fine player. I think 20 homers, 20 stolen bases is not an unreasonable expectation for him. There are a lot of guys who can do that who don't cost a fifth round pick. Yeah, the ADP for Bellinger right now, 62.5 in the month of January. So he's on that 5-6 turn,

remains a free agent. There wasn't a report earlier in the week that it seems like the Cubs are most likely to resign Cody Bellinger. Improved the strikeout rate dramatically last year, but it's difficult to figure out how he did what he did last season. A confounding player, one of the, I would say, five toughest players to rank heading into 2024.

That is Cody Bellinger. Scott, we move on to your first bust here, and someone we mentioned earlier in the show, Paul Gulchman. Yeah, Paul Goldschmidt was fine early on last year. It was coming off an MVP season. Everything seemed to be fine still. fell off quite a bit in the second half. And just of my argument here is I'm buying the falloff.

I think Father Time, of course, is undefeated. Goldschman is 36 now. The most condemning number, I think, I can find for Paul Goldschmidt, is that his production against fastballs last year really fell off. So he's a career, it was a career 307 hitter with a 9-9. 95 OPS against fastballs. Last year, 238 with a 797 OPS against fastballs. Career 8.7% swinging strike rate against fastballs.

Last year it was 10.6%. Fastballs are the easiest pitch to hit. But as you get older, your swing slows down. You start having trouble catching up to that heat. And I worry those numbers against fastball specifically are an indication. And that's what's going on with Goldschmidt. and that he may finally be at the end tier. So, you know, he's got to go in that 60 to 70 range in drafts,

but I think I would just wait for the first baseman who come after him. I'm not disagreeing with you. I will just say, and I think I said like verbatim, that same thing about Paul Goldschmidt back in like 2019, which mostly just says that, I mean, what a career Paul Goldschmidt has had. But like I said earlier, turning that 30s slump around,

doing that once is one thing, doing it twice. If he pulls it off, Paul Goldschmidt's going to the Hall of Fame. He might end up going to the home either way. But like, yeah, if he's able to pull that trick that he did in 2020 and 2021 off again,

I mean, he's going to, he's going to have, a hell of a career. And I think it's reasonable to be skeptical about that. I think two points in the favor of Paul Goldschmidt for the Goldschmidt truthers out there. He did visit driveline this offseason to help improve his bat speed.

So perhaps something that can help him against fastballs. And he's entering a contract year if you buy into that kind of thing. So two potential favors there for Paul Goldschmidt. Chris, we started things off with Belly as a bust. Now we are on to Ellie, who has an ADP. of 22.6 in the month of January, Ellie De La Cruz, that is. Yeah, I mean,

can I just point to, like, post All-Star Break? And we can move on because he really struggled. We saw what the downside here is. And look, he was still a pretty useful fantasy player. I think the skill set, because he steals so many bases, because he's going to probably bat

in a pretty good spot in the lineup. Runs and stolen bases are always going to be there. He's going to hit some home runs. but we're legitimately talking about a player in L.A. De La Cruz who might flirt with the Mendoza line. And while that's also true of O'Neill Cruz, O'Neill Cruz goes 60 picks later. For L.E.D.A.Cruz, it's not the player.

I mean, it's partially the player. But it's mostly the price. You're talking about a second round pick, early second in a 15-team league in some of these high-stakes leagues. I get it. I get the enthusiasm. I can see the upside. but when you're talking about a second round pick,

especially an early second round pick in a 15 teamer, it's just, it's really hard to justify a player with such glaring red flags. He has not shown he can hit lefties, 494 OPS, 493 strikeouts and 122 plate appearances. That's like a 37% strikeout rate off the top of my head. If someone wants to fact check me there, it's bad. And so there are just,

there are really glaring red flags. the point where Ellie de la Cruz gets sent down before May 1st, it's on the board. I'm not going to say it's a likely outcome, but it's like a, there's like a 10% chance that happens. There was an article written this offseason, Chris, that, I mean, there were quotes where they basically said that can happen to like any of their players. You know, I think it was whoever their GM is. They have so much infield. Yeah, they have so many interchangeable parts. I want to ask you this though real quick, because you said it's not so much the player, it's the price. What price are you comfortable paying for Ellie De La Cruz?

And I ask this because in FBC, where we keep citing this second round ADP, looking at some of the other ADP data out there on the other sites, that's the outlier. Generally, you know, Yahoo, L.E. De La Cruz is 54th overall. That's 77th overall. I've got him 46th in a Roto League, which is his better, sorry, I've got, I'm looking at my points rankings. I've got him mid-30s. So late third round, I feel a little more comfortable because it's a risk-reward factor, right? And so you look at like Gunner Henderson and Bobachette, he's got more upside than those guys.

But those guys, Bobeshet's been a first-round pick. Gunner-Henderson, if he was a first-round pick this time next year, I would not be surprised. So, like, he does have more upside, but at some point you're taking on too much risk. in the name of chasing upside. And I think that's where Ellie De La Cruz has a second round pick is. So I have Belly and Snelly among my bus too, but I've been reluctant to put Ellie there for that reason. I think with the Steel's potential,

that alone's going to make them a top 12 shortstop probably. So, you know, if you have to pay second round for him, okay, I'm out. If you have to pay fourth round for them. Yeah, that's, I think it's, there are things about the player, but it's more of the price. Yeah, I think that's completely reasonable as well. You know, if he's going in the 50s or 60s, I can justify that. I think I said exactly that on yesterday's podcast,

but, you know, if we're talking about a second or third round pick, it won't be me on L.A. D.A.Cruz. Scott, your second bust up here, you have Joe Ryan. Ah, our Minnesota twins love comes to a... Boo! But, like, in a nice way, you know, like... Respectfully. Boo!

I think Chris really likes Joe Ryan. and I think like Enosaris really likes Joe Ryan. I think a lot of the industry really likes Joe Ryan, probably because Enosaris likes Joe Ryan, but I don't like Joe Ryan. Here's why. I think the jig is up. I think, you know, he was never like this high-end prospect

that everybody had to have a piece of, even though he was putting sub-2ER, put together sub-2ERAs, 12Ks per 9 in the miners, the evaluations were not high on Joe Ryan at all because he mostly succeeded on a trick. He had the optimal vertical approach angle on his fastball. Came in, it created that perfect rising effect that causes hitters to swing and miss at it,

even though the velocity on it wasn't very good. It was a trick, and it was a really good trick, and he succeeded with it for a long time. But I think that's ending. And it's actually, you know, some of Vino Seris' own research that partly causes me to believe this, He wrote an article last October where he said the worm is turning in the battle for the top of the zone.

And basically that hitters are figuring out how to adjust to that rising fastball. And it's not as successful anymore as it was in its heyday when Joe Ryan was first starting out. So then you look at the numbers for Joe Ryan. Started off great last year, 2908 ERA through June 26. 662 ERA the rest of the way. Final 14 starts 662 ERA, 3.2 home runs per 9, which is untenable, of course. Now, he was dealing with a groin injury for part of that time that eventually put him on the IL. They said it was affecting his delivery.

Maybe. Maybe that had something to do with it. After coming off the IL, though, Joe Ryan still had a 479 ERA. I think he was a gimmicky pitcher, and the gimmicks just, they figured it out. And I'm not confident he's going to be even useful, really, in fantasy next year. I do want to quickly clarify, Scott, because I know you referenced Enosarice a few times. He has Joe Ryan ranked as his SP40, so he is below the market as well. I think Joe Ryan's being drafted as like a top 25 starter.

So it seems like Eno is actually down on Joe Ryan as well. So just to... I think he's higher than me. Maybe that's what I was thinking. Yeah, I think... Now I have him right about the same spot. Okay. Fair enough.

So, Ino Saris and I are on lockstep then. There you go. The ADP for Joe Ryan in January 83.2. And I fully agree with you, Scott. I got Joe Ryan in Bust 1.0. He is not a pitcher that I'll be targeting. A pitcher that Chris won't be targeting is Snelly. We had Ellie and Belly.

Now we've got Snelly. Yeah, I mean, look, we know what Blake Snell is. And I've said it a bunch of times, but I just, I think the simplest way to view it is when you talk about a combustible, high variance pitcher like Blake Snell, who we're almost 10 years into his career, right? where he has these really high highs, he has these really low lows,

and everybody overreacts to both. And I just think the simplest way to view Blake Snell is, when he's riding high, sell. When he's riding low, buy. He's coming off his second Scy Young season. I think now's a good time to fade Blake Snell and come sniffing around in mid-May when he's got a 4-7 ERA

and the person who drafted him as a top 15, starting pitcher is freaking out and thinking about cutting him because remember that's about the time last year where people were freaking out and talking about cutting blake snow the last three years it happens there is a point every year and and even if Blake snail has a very good season a very good Blake snail season usually sees him throwing 130 innings and it usually sees him not really being all that helpful and whip strike up workouts will be good. ERA, maybe. I just, I can't buy it coming off the career year.

It's just, this is an approach to the Blake Snell problem that has not steered me wrong yet. Scott, your final bust that we're going to talk about here, Spencer Steer. Can we make it quick? What do you got? Yeah, so my argument is two pronged here. One is the point we're making with Ellie de la Cruz earlier. It's just that there's, there's, there's, that the reds have so much excess, particularly in the infield where they don't currently have a spot for an everyday spot for Jonathan

India or Christian Incarnazion Strand. But also in the outfield, they have three left-handed outfield bats that deserve playing time, not every day necessarily, but they deserve to play a fair amount. And T.J. Friedel, Will Benson and Jake Fraley. So even saying, okay, Spencer Steer, just stick them in the outfield then. I don't know that we can count on it being on an everyday basis. And I especially don't know that we can count on it being everyday basis because I think Spencer Steer happened in his rookie year to deliver on his best possible outcome. He was, he's a whole is greater than the sum of his parts guy. And I don't think he can, his parts can, can amount to much more than 23 homers and 15 steals. He just doesn't

have the speed or steals track record to count on another 15 steals. And his exit velocity reading is very suspect. Great part for home runs. I understand he could. hit 23 homers again, but I think it's more likely to go down than up. And if it, if we adjust Spencer Steers numbers down at all, how much does that increase the risk of loss of playing time with all that access? I just think, I think there's a chance he could end up being a, um, a wasted pick. Somebody who's not going to be completely useless in fantasy, especially with his versatility, but not going to deliver on the numbers that, not going to deliver the sort of numbers that you paid for.

We're going to wrap up with three quick bus for me. And C.J. Abrams, he was ridiculous once he got moved to the leadoff spot in July last year. He's also really, really bad against left-handed pitching in his career, 163 batting average 466 OPS. He does not hit the ball hard. He hits lots of pop-ups. C.J. Abrams is a dynamic player.

He's young. It's entirely possible that he improves. But it's a really big price tag. 40th overall pick in drafts right now. just feels overvalued for C.J. Abrams. Aaron Nola is another one. I don't think he's going to bottom out by any means, but he's had a 446 ERA or higher two of the past three years.

Just not built the same as other Aces, doesn't throw as hard. I think that makes his margin for error slimmer than other quote-unquote aces or top 15, top 20 starting pitchers. When things go wrong for Nola, they go really wrong. So he is not inside my top 12 starting pitch. He's like right around SP 20. He's currently being drafted. that has a top 12 starting pitcher,

probably won't be on any of my teams this year. That's the thing with Nola is, like, I thought his value would be suppressed finally. Yeah. The fact it wasn't, you know, I can kind of understand why I'd call him a potential bust here. And lastly,

I swear we don't hate the Cincinnati Reds, but T.J. Friedel, he's coming off an awesome season last year. A weird stat. He had 17 bunt hits last year, the most in a single season since D. Strange Gordon had 18 back in 2017. So I just have to think,

are going to guard against that a little bit better this year. Does not hit the ball hard. Hit a lot of pop-ups last year. The expected numbers were really bad. Not even that fast. 73% on sprint speed. I'm assuming it's just a lot of beating the shift. Yeah.

And a lot of the Reds players we've talked about, look, someone has to play, I get it. It's going to work out for some of these guys. But, you know, for the Fridels and the steers of the world, if there's any drop-off, we could see them lose playing time. So ADP right now is 158. 35th outfielder off the board. it won't be me. I have him closer to

outfielder 50 in my rankings. That's a no for T.J. Friedel. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in of fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye.