Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers! Framber Valdez Injury (3/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 4, 2021

Well, we lasted this long without a serious injury. Framber Valdez has a fractured left ring finger. How low should we drop him in the rankings? Is there anybody else to pay attention to on the Houst...on Astros? ... We hit the rest of the news and notes, starting with Victor Robles leading off for the Nationals (8:35). Pablo Lopez is working on a new breaking pitch while Corey Kluber looked great in his debut. ... We have more prospect updates (17:07)! Wander Franco and Jarred Kelenic both had big days. How soon should we expect Matt Manning of the Detroit Tigers? ... So, how would you describe a sleeper (25:54)? Who is Scott's favorite sleeper this season? ... We have a few middle infielders we really like in Nick Solak and Tommy Edman (32:36)! ... We both love Austin Riley for this season (37:30). ... We give you ALL the sleepers (41:30). ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam. And we have our first pretty big injury of the spring.
Starting point is 00:00:28 Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Sample joined by Scott. White, no Chris Towers today, but we have a jam-pack show for you nonetheless. Framber Valdez has a fractured finger. We've got some other news and notes, some more prospect chatter. Those prospects, they're making some noise in the spring and plus our favorite sleepers slash undervalued players as well coming a little bit later on. Scott, it's a sad day for you, man. What's going on? Framber Valdez, how much if I hype them? One of three guys, three-way
Starting point is 00:01:01 high for most seven inning starts last year and Framber Valdez was in that tie. By far the best ground ball pitcher in baseball, Framber Valdez. You know, fractured finger, it's not it's not what I'd consider a long-term injury, right? But it's going to
Starting point is 00:01:20 stop his buildup, fractured left ring finger, so his pitching hand. It's going to stop his buildup. He's going to need, I would guess, I mean, I'm just guessing, man. kind of depends how bad the fracture is, I guess. But considering it's his pitching hand, I would guess at least four weeks shut down and then ramp up again.
Starting point is 00:01:38 So, I don't know. We might not see him in April. That's my guess. Yeah, it's definitely possible. Again, Framber Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured ring finger on his pitching hand, on his left hand. This is what Astros GM James Click had to say. Quote, at this point, the medical staff needs to do additional tests
Starting point is 00:01:58 and imaging before deciding on the next step. we will know more in the upcoming days. So no timetable as of now. We did have Dr. Scott White to say, maybe he shut down for four weeks. Maybe we see him at some point in late April, early May, but at this point we're just guessing. By the time you're listening to this, the podcast version,
Starting point is 00:02:19 you know, there might be an updated timetable in the morning. So pay attention to that. Framber Valdez was great last year. I mean, it was this real first opportunity to be in the, in the rotation with the Astros. SP 25 and Roto, SP 20 in head-to-head points,
Starting point is 00:02:37 357 ERA, 112 whip. You mentioned the ground ball rates, got 60% ground ball rate, led all qualified starting pitchers. Knowing everything that we know right now, I don't know if you've made any changes to the rankings yet,
Starting point is 00:02:50 but do you have something in mind how far you're going to drop Framber Valdez if you're going to drop him at all? No, I mean, it makes sense to drop him if he's going to miss one-sixth of the season or something around that. I mean, I guess it's possible he misses as much as a quarter of the season.
Starting point is 00:03:04 But that timetable that, you know, I'm just kind of basing on experience and precedent would put him coming back about the same time like Mike Soroka comes back. And I think it's a similar profile for those two, guys who can pitch deep into games.
Starting point is 00:03:24 They're best at getting ground balls. That's really what sets them apart as pitchers. So I'd probably drop him to that range in my pitcher rankings, which means behind behind like Ian Anderson and Sixto Sanchez, of course, but also behind Lance McCullors, Patrick Corbyn, Charlie Morton, some of those bounce back candidates at the position. And behind them is about where I'd slot Framber Valdez now.
Starting point is 00:03:49 Yeah, so I think we're pretty close here because my initial takeaway was, I haven't made this update to the ranks yet, but I will. I was thinking dropping him right behind 6-0 Sanchez, which would make him SP 41 in the ranks. So I have Soroka a few spots behind him there, and if you look at the ADP, if we're just comparing that, Frumber Valdez's ADP, according to Fantasy Pros,
Starting point is 00:04:14 is 105.8. And if he slides down to where Mike Soroka's at, that would put him around 163.2. I think he's probably... You know what? I actually forgot how I dropped Soroka in my ranking. So that may actually be higher than I'm going to move Framber Valdez. I may put Framber Valdez behind guys like Joe Musgrove and Kevin Gosman personally. So, you know, if the time table comes out and it's two weeks he's expected to miss the first two weeks of April, then, you know, obviously he doesn't need to drop that far.
Starting point is 00:04:47 But if we're looking at a month plus of the regular season, then that's, I'm going to be moving Frommberg Valdez outside of my top 40 at the position for sure. Still a fluid situation. Again, that's Framber Valdez. Starting pitcher for the Houston Astros. He has a fractured ring finger on his pitching hand. It's worth noting that I am in the middle of a slow draft, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, which features a bunch of analysts in the industry.
Starting point is 00:05:13 And we are up to pick 118, and Framber Valdez has not been drafted yet. So if he gets drafted while we're doing this podcast, I'll let everyone know, but my guess is it's probably not going to happen. Just stick with the Astros here, Scott. Do you think this opens up an opportunity for anyone else? Do we have like a Forrest Whitley on our radar? I mean, he'd have to light it up this spring as much as,
Starting point is 00:05:37 as much trouble as he's had over the past couple years in, you know, like at the alternate training site and, you know, the minor leagues two years ago. I don't think he would be the front runner. Roster Resource puts Luis Garcia in that spot. I mean, yeah, I don't think Josh James is going to be ready to go at the start of the year. So yeah, it's it's nobody, nobody really to get excited about. Yeah, the rumors that I saw had Luis Garcia in the rotation. He has some upside. He's not, he's not a total dud, but it's not, it's not somebody
Starting point is 00:06:16 who really needs to be on your radar in a standard mix league. AL only, remember the name, Luis Garcia, Forrest Whitley, if he performs well in the Spring. Before we get to news and notes, I just want to remind everybody about Paramount Plus. You've probably seen the journey to Mount Paramount spots featuring Bill Cower, James Corden, Patrick Stewart, and Beavis, and Buthead. It is quite the squad. But Paramount Plus is live sports, breaking news, and a mountain of entertainment. You can go straight from game day to movie night with Paramount Plus. Stream iconic movies like The Godfather, Indiana Jones, and Mission Impossible, and new episodes of critically acclaimed original series
Starting point is 00:06:56 like Star Trek Picard, the Good Fight, and The Stand. And get this, it's where you can dive into live sports from us, CBS Sports, including the NFL March Madness, which is coming up, the Masters and Champions League Soccer, plus stream, hit shows from CBS, Nickelodeon, MTV, BET, the Smithsonian Channel, and Comedy Central. Live sports, breaking news, and a mountain of entertainment,
Starting point is 00:07:21 Paramount Plus streaming March 4th, which when you are listening to this podcast will be today. So there you go. Get on it, Paramount Plus. I should have also reminded people the programming schedule for the month of March. Should have done that on March 1st, but that's what a good host would do. So I apologize, but we will legitimately have 31 podcasts in 31 days. One podcast for each day this month. Monday through Friday, you'll get you. You'll get your normal fantasy podcast with usually Scott, Chris, and myself. Saturdays will be a bonus mailbag that will do every week in the month of March to get you ready for your drafts. And Sundays will be our buddies Danny Vietti and Will Middilbrooks. I know some people have left some
Starting point is 00:08:07 feedback regarding Danny and Will. They're great guys. They definitely know their baseball. They don't talk as much about fantasy, but they've had some great guests on the podcast. Marcus Stroman was on that podcast a couple of months back. And he was talking about that split change up having a new pitch before he even featured it in spring training. So there's definitely some interesting nuggets that you can get from that podcast as well. They'll have Michael Waka from the Tampa Bay Rays coming on the podcast this Sunday. Some news and notes, Scott, Victor Robles exited Wednesday's spring training game against the Marlins after he was hit by a pitch on his left forearm. I don't know that that matters much. Sounds like he's going to be okay. The bigger news
Starting point is 00:08:46 is that he was leading off against a righty with Juan Soto betting second and Trey Turner batting third. Manager Davy Martinez really wants this Victor Robles leading off to be a thing. Now, I'm not really a Victor Robles guy based on what I've, you know,
Starting point is 00:09:04 picked up from you. Doesn't sound like you're a Victor Robles guy, but the ADP is 177.2. And if he's leading off, he can steal 25 plus bases and score 90 plus runs. And that definitely has value where he's being drafted right now. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:22 I mean, the fact that he's more discounted than he's ever been, I guess is the most interesting thing about him. We've done the Victor Robles leadoff hitter saga before, and he just wasn't good enough to keep doing it. So ultimately, it's going to come down to how he performs. And so I can't get to that. that excited about what's happening here in spring training? Because if he's too easy
Starting point is 00:09:51 of an out at the top of the lineup, they'll just move him down. And that's what he's been so far in his major league career. But he's still very young, still very fast, a lot of steals potential. And those deeper rotissory leagues especially, I think, you know, obviously you're not paying all that much for him. Victor Robles is still just 23 years old.
Starting point is 00:10:12 He'll turn 24 in May this year. and back in 2019, he didn't hit very well, 255 batting average, 745 OPS, but 17 home runs and 28 steals, again, it could play. So just pay attention to this situation. Scott, with Trey Turner moving down, we talked about this a little bit during our shortstop preview,
Starting point is 00:10:31 but this, I would assume, means that his steals are going to come down at least a little bit. Yeah, again, if it lasts, if it lasts. But we've been down this road with the nationals in spring training with Trey Turner, this conversation exactly. and Victor Robles this conversation exactly. So it's going to be seeing as believing for me at this point. And yeah, that's about all I have to say on it right now.
Starting point is 00:11:00 J.T. Real Muto, who is regarded as the consensus number one catcher in fantasy baseball, fractured his thumb a couple of weeks ago now. He will undergo an x-ray at the end of this week to determine whether he can remove his cast. So obviously pay attention to that because we need JT Real Muto already a very bad catcher position. Pablo Lopez, whom I have as a breakout this season, you can read it on CBSports.com, my breakouts 2.0, has been working on a breaking pitch to add to his fastball, sinker, cutter, and change up. Lopez had this to say, quote, as a starting pitcher, your main focus is you have to go through the lineup
Starting point is 00:11:39 three or hopefully four times. So the more good pitches you have that you feel comfortable throwing in any count, the more unpredictable you remain, which is a huge weapon. You don't want to fall into patterns. You don't want to become too predictable. Last season, Pablo Lopez finished with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.19 whip with over a strikeout per inning. And he saw a decent size jump in his swinging strike rate.
Starting point is 00:12:04 10.2% in 2019, 12.1% last season. The ADP for Pablo Lopez, 140.8. It's a little high. I will agree, but I think there's some legitimate potential here. I think I'm more optimistic on Pablo Lopez than you are, right, Scott? Yeah, I mean, I don't really see the upside for more than he delivered last year, 361, ERA 119-9.3K per 9.9. He has set a goal of exceeding 200 innings this year, which is why he's developing this
Starting point is 00:12:35 breaking ball, why he's talking about facing, you know, wanting a bigger variety of pitches so he can face, go through the lineup more times. But in terms of innings build up, it would be aggressive for him to make it all the way to 200 innings. It'd be aggressive for him to make it all the way to 180. And like developing a breaking ball, it doesn't sound like he's developed it yet. It sounds like he's experimenting with grips and trying to find a pitch that moves the way he wants it to. And like, breaking balls don't go on trees. You can't go out and get one at the breaking ball store.
Starting point is 00:13:15 Like, just because he's trying to doesn't mean it's going to mean it's going to happen or that it'll be any good. So that's, again, I don't really see this as reason to upgrade Lopez. Where'd you get that breaking ball? The toilet store? So ridiculous. I will just point out for... Look, I think if Lopez just does what he did last year
Starting point is 00:13:38 over however many, 160, 170 innings, 361 ERA with a 1.19 whip, that is nothing to sneeze at. Yeah, no, I mean, he would be... He would make up the very small middle class at starting pitcher with those numbers. Like, it's not borderline ace numbers, but it's certainly numbers that you want in your lineup
Starting point is 00:13:58 that you could have in your lineup every time through. Do you remember that game last year, Scott? I'm sure you do. Where the Brave scored 29 runs. Pablo Lopez was a starting pitcher for that game. And he allowed seven earned runs in 1.2 innings pitched. If you take away just that start, which you shouldn't do this, but I always do it anyway. He would have had a 2.61 ERA in his other 10 starts.
Starting point is 00:14:21 I think Pablo Lopez is really good. So I'll just leave it there. But we will pay attention throughout the spring to see if anything comes of this breaking ball with Pablo Lopez. Miles Michaelis is dealing with a shoulder injury. He also had surgery on his right flexor tendon last July. He was expected to be in the opening day rotation for the Cardinals. Now I'm not so sure.
Starting point is 00:14:43 Maybe this opens up a rotation spot for Daniel Ponce de Leon. Any interest there, Scott? Alex Reyes, I think, is technically competing for a rotation spot too, though also kind of competing for the closer gig. They still don't really know what they're going to do with him. So I don't think If Michaelis is out It'll be for long enough for really anybody to seize the role
Starting point is 00:15:06 In his absence So not really I mean there's there's strikeout upset for both of those Especially Reyes But I don't I don't I don't see this being the situation that allows them to have a job permanently John Lester will have a thyroid gland removed from
Starting point is 00:15:24 Removed and the team hopes to that he will be back pitching within a week. So we wish you well, John Lester. Not really a fantasy option anymore, but just hope he's all right. And this one as well, not really fantasy news, but Yankees manager, Aaron Boone,
Starting point is 00:15:39 of course I got to give him a shout out. You see the stuff behind me. Aaron Boone had surgery to get a pacemaker and should be back with the team within the next week or so. So best wishes to Aaron Boone. But speaking of those Yankees, the Bronx Bombers,
Starting point is 00:15:53 Corey Klober made his debut on Wednesday night, and he threw two perfect endings with three strikeouts. So exactly what Scott White wants to see. You know, it kind of makes me look a little bit foolish right now, but we'll continue to follow Corey Kluber this spring. He had four whiffs on 22 pitches. As for the velocity, which I think is the main thing to pay attention to here,
Starting point is 00:16:16 Kluber threw seven sinkers and two four-seem fastballs. So nine fastballs in total. The average velocity for each, the sinker was at 91.1.1. miles per hour. This is according to baseball savant. And the four seam average 90 miles per hour. I will just note that back in 2018, both of those pitches averaged 92.4 miles per hour for Corey Klobber. But this is his first start since opening day last year. And there's obviously still time to build up. So any takeaways here, Scott? I mean, it was exactly what you want to see from his first. I mean, I guess not exactly. You could see the velocity being a little higher.
Starting point is 00:16:53 but in terms of effectiveness and we'll just keep watching him this spring. If he continues to deliver outings like this, I think his stock will continue to move up. If we're going to continue to hype up, Andrew Vaughan prospect for the Chicago White Sox, which we did yesterday, and I think rightfully so.
Starting point is 00:17:12 I'm very excited about him. It sounds like Scott's very excited as well. We have to show a little love to some of the other top prospects who have gotten off to pretty good starts as well. So let's start with start at the time. top with Wander Franco, the number one prospect in all of baseball for the Tampa Bay Rays. He went two for three with a home run on Wednesday. He is just 20 years old, has not played above high a ball. Scott, when are you thinking Wander Franco is up? Do you think it's this season?
Starting point is 00:17:41 Yes, I think it's this season. I think it's probably sooner in the year than later. They had him tagging around with the team in the playoffs last year in the World Series for sure in case they needed to call him up then. So they must not be thinking he's that far off. And, you know, you say shortstop's blocked by Willie Adama's. But like if the talent's ready for somebody like Wander Franco, you find a spot for him, especially if you're competing as the Rays are. I think it'll be pretty early on.
Starting point is 00:18:12 I actually think he's going too late in drafts considering he's the top prospect in baseball. The ADP, when I saw this on fantasy pros, 402.4. That's even lower than last time I looked. It's pretty wild. So I agree. I don't know if it'll be at shortstop. They'll find a way to make things work. If Franco's performing well,
Starting point is 00:18:32 it sounds like they want to get them up. It wouldn't be crazy to see a 20-year-old, you know, be with a major league team. We saw Juan Soto do it a couple years ago. We've seen other players do it as well. They'll find a way. They can, you know, they'll move Brandon Lau over to third base
Starting point is 00:18:45 or move Brandon Lout to the outfield and Wander Franco at second or short. Especially the raise. I mean, everybody's so versatile there, and they have no trouble moving guys in and out of the lineup. Like, it's going to happen for Franco this year. Well, how about the Mariners' top prospect, Jared Kelnick, who went one for two with a home run on Wednesday,
Starting point is 00:19:05 to left center field? It was almost an Apo-Taco home run. It was pretty impressive. Jared Kelnick is 21 years old. He has played at AA with the Mariners. This is one, Scott, where the ADP is higher. it's at 231.2. I can see him
Starting point is 00:19:24 maybe not opening day, but two or three weeks into the season, I think it's definitely possible for Kelnick. Yep, I think so too. I've been moving him up. Those are really the three prospects,
Starting point is 00:19:36 well, the three yet to debut prospects that I'm focused on, Vaughn, Jared Kelnick, and Wander Franco. And I think I would, the order I'd draft him would be Vaughn, Von Kellnick, Franco.
Starting point is 00:19:51 And that's in redraft leagues. Yeah, in redraft leagues. But they should all be drafted at anything. 12 teams are deeper, I'd say. And Vaughn probably should be drafted in anything. Kelnick probably on the verge of being drafted in anything. I think he's going to be up soon too. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:20:09 Yep. I think we're in agreement there on some of the top prospects in baseball. Speaking of Andrew Vaughn and Sleepers, which is the main topic for today's podcast, Nick Madrigal, an FBT favorite, is expected to make his debut on Monday. Remember, he had shoulder surgery last year, and he's coming along slowly, but are you expecting Madrigal at this point, Scott, to be ready for opening day? Yeah, I do. I really haven't seen anything to indicate he won't be.
Starting point is 00:20:40 And I think if that's what explains his ADP going outside the top 200, then presumably if he if he's hitting well in spring training if he looks healthy then we're going to see that ADP rise I think we should I think he goes too late I think he's a cinch for batting average last minor league season he stole 35 bases
Starting point is 00:21:02 he's a second baseman obviously a difficult position to fill he's he's just a really handy player to take late and it might not be late for that much longer. Nick Madrigal prospect for the White Sox.
Starting point is 00:21:19 ADP is 213.2 as a 24th second basement off the board according to fantasy pros. How about this guy? Would you rather have Nick Madrigal or Andres Jimenez, who is with Cleveland in a position battle there? But I think both guys can provide some speed. Yeah, I think so
Starting point is 00:21:35 too. And they're two of my favorite middle to late round options for speed. I like that they're middle infielders as opposed to outfielders. And I'd prefer Magirical, because because he is, like I said, a cinch for batting average. He strikes out 6% of the time at worst. It might even be less than that.
Starting point is 00:21:55 He's David Fletcher in terms of how good of a contact hitter he is. And there's the potential for him to steal the bases. Also, I think Jimenez might be a little safer for the steals, if that's the one thing you're banking on, but not sure he's going to contribute anything else. and playing time is more of a concern for him than it is for Madrigal. Yeah, I think there's a bit of a trade-off between the two. If you want batting average and next to no power,
Starting point is 00:22:24 I think you go with Nick Madriel, they're probably both in the 20-plus steel range, assuming health. But Andres Jimenez, I think, has a little bit more pop. So I think we can get 10 to 15 home runs, but a lower batting average for Jimenez. Something like 260, I think, is doable there. So you want to trade off some batting average, you want a little bit more power, same amount of speed.
Starting point is 00:22:42 I think you go with Jimenez and vice versa there with Nick Madrigal. The last one I wanted to hit on was Matt Manning, who is one of the Tigers' top prospects along, top pitching prospects, along with Casey Meis and Terrick Scouble. He threw Matt Manning through two shutout innings on Wednesday. He allowed one hit and one strikeout, and apparently was hitting 94 to 95 miles per hour with his fastball. He threw 25 pitches, 16 for strikes,
Starting point is 00:23:10 so you like to see that from a young pitcher. And he is on record saying he'd like to make the opening day roster. So, you know, Scott, I would like to win a million bucks. It's going to happen? Probably not. Probably not. I would say the same thing for Matt Manning. Even if they go with a six-man rotation, it doesn't sound like they're going to have room for both Scoobal and Mize, because they have Julio Tehran, who I imagine is going to get a rotation spot, at least to begin the year.
Starting point is 00:23:39 Gosh. apparently Manning what I've gathered from different beatwriters for the Tigers is that Manning would have gotten a call last year around the same time Mize and Scoopold did if he hadn't gotten hurt I forget exactly what the injury was nothing that was that big of a deal but
Starting point is 00:24:02 it was an arm injury yeah yeah but nothing of great severity it just wasn't it was going to make it so he couldn't pitch So he's going to come up this year, provided he stays healthy. Manning will be up at some point this season. It's difficult to say exactly when it'll be because I don't think he's next in line. I think whichever of Mize and scoble doesn't make the rotation will be next in line. And then Manning after that.
Starting point is 00:24:27 Matt Manning, former first round pick for the Tigers back in 2016, 23 years old. He has made 24 starts at AA. So it seems like his time should come sooner rather than later up there. in Detroit. The ADP is 466 for one, Matt Manning. If you are watching on the video side, don't go anywhere. If you're listening to the podcast, we're going to take a quick break. But when we return, we'll have all the sleepers here on fantasy baseball today. So let's hit on some of our favorite sleepers. And hopefully we'll get to like three to five each. See how far we get here, Scott. But, you know, I would ask you what a sleeper is.
Starting point is 00:25:05 and I think it's kind of become synonymous with undervalued more than anything, Scott. Because, look, people who are listening or watching this podcast, you probably know the players or you've at least heard of them at some point, right? So it's really just, I think, players who are undervalued at this point in the fantasy draft season.
Starting point is 00:25:24 Would you disagree? Here's the problem I have with sleepers is, like, I have so many different buckets that I have to put players' names in in the preseason that mean generally, undervalued. I like them. I think they're going to out-deliver their draft status.
Starting point is 00:25:41 They're going to outperform it. And sleepers is just one of them. So I have to distinguish sleepers from something like breakouts from something like underrated. They're all basically sleepers. It's just I have to come up with ways to distinguish those lists from each other, right? So what ends up happening is my sleepers,
Starting point is 00:26:02 which is going to probably be the most trafficked column of them. Wow. Weird flex. All right, Scott. Flexing on everybody. No, no, no, no. Just of the ones I, of those different ones I write, the sleepers is probably going to get the most traffic. Just because it's the term sleepers, you know. But I'm not as excited about my sleepers as like my breakouts. And we're going to do a breakouts column. I mean, we're going to do a breakouts podcast, so I'll have a chance to talk about them
Starting point is 00:26:28 still. But I, they tend to be the players I draft most. the breakouts versus the sleepers, which I kind of put more toward the end of a mixed league draft. Those last, you know, the last quarter of the draft is where I'm drafting most of these guys. Speaking of breakouts, that will be tomorrow's podcast, the main topic of discussion on tomorrow's podcast.
Starting point is 00:26:53 So, you know, I would talk about some undervalued guys, but I've talked about these guys a lot. Austin Meadows, who hit another home run, by the way. I love Austin Meadows. I think he's undervalued. The ADP is rising. Chris Paddock, John Carlos Stanton,
Starting point is 00:27:05 Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez. I like all those players a lot. I think they're undervalued. They're all going inside the top 160 picks, but I think at this point you've heard my analysis of those players. So let's hit on some true sleeper, Scott. Your number one sleeper heading into this season is blank. Number one.
Starting point is 00:27:24 You've got to narrow it down to one guy, huh? Well, we're going to talk about a lot of them. But who's your favorite? Man, that's a lot of pressure to pick out my favorite. favorite. I'll just pick one. It's not necessarily my favorite. All right. When we get to your favorite, though, you let us know. Oh, I know who my favorite is. Okay, I got it. I got it. Trey Mancini's my favorite. Trey Mancini, you couldn't call him a breakout because the breakout already happened.
Starting point is 00:27:50 But he is a sleeper because he's getting drafted much later than I think he should, given what I expected him to deliver. His, forget stolen bases because obviously he's not a contributor of those. But the four other categories, 291 batting average, 35 home runs, 97 RBI, 106 run score. That's what he did in 2019. A stud, any way you look at it. Now, some people were thinking, okay, maybe that was too good to be true. Maybe he was a one-year wonder. And that question remains to be answered
Starting point is 00:28:27 because obviously he missed all of 2020 recovering from colon cancer. now he's coming back it seems all systems go it seems like the recovery he's in good shape as far as that goes so it's just a question of of getting back to that production he showed in 2019
Starting point is 00:28:49 and for where he's going in drafts which what's the latest ADP on him I think it's outside the top 180 right it's 173.8 I think people are listening to you Scott creeping up. It's creeping up. But I still think it's a, for the potential at
Starting point is 00:29:07 that kind of production, it's still a great value. He's somebody who I love getting is like my third outfielder. It's, Mancini's exactly the kind of player I'm referring to when I say outfielders is always going to have options and why I don't need to fill it early
Starting point is 00:29:23 because guys like that are available late that, you know, have a good shot of producing like early rounders. And even if you bake in regression to his 2019. That's when the juice ball happened. It was a career year for Tray Mancini. You brought up all the numbers. Even if you give him 75 to 80% of the production he had that season, you're still looking at 25 to 28 home runs, 80 runs scored, 80 RBI, a 260 to 270 batting average. That's still a
Starting point is 00:29:53 quality player. And obviously, there's still upside for him to get back to the player he completely was that season. He hits in a good ballpark and Camden Yards, a good division in terms of ballparks as well. So I like Trey Mancini quite a bit. We look at the ADP here, Scott, going not really just ahead of him, but in terms of outfielders, Dylan Carlson's going about 10 spots ahead of him. Who would you rather have between Mancini and Dylan Carlson? Mancini.
Starting point is 00:30:20 Okay, what about Ian Hap, who's going almost 20 picks ahead of Trey Mancini? Mancini, I mean. Oh, all right. It'd be amazing if Hap ever had a season like Mancini's 2019. Good for half. Maybe it'll happen, but I'd rather have the guy who's done it before. How about his teammate, Ryan Mountcastle? Mancini. Yeah, I don't... Let's see how far we could go. Ramon Moriano?
Starting point is 00:30:46 I would take Mancini. All right, who else do we have here? Joey Gallo. Is this where we end the slide? Yeah, I think so. Unless you're just so stacked with home runs already that you don't want to take the hit. Gallo's going to give you a batting. but all things being equal, I'll take Gallo over Mancini.
Starting point is 00:31:05 All right. So Scott is very excited about boom, boom. We obviously are wishing him well and hope that, you know, so far everything seems good. He's playing in spring games and hopefully his health remains and he can stick with the Baltimore Orioles for the entire season. That would be truly awesome. My number one sleeper, I'm kind of in the same boat as you. I don't really.
Starting point is 00:31:28 Do I have a number one? Not really. I like those undervalue guys more. anyone else. So I'll just, I'll go in order of how I have them written out here. But Nick So-Lak, you see the hat guys, Texas Rangers and girls, if you're watching. But Nick So-Wak with the Texas Rangers,
Starting point is 00:31:42 the ADP is 184. According to Fantasy Pros and you might be skeptical of me choosing somebody who hit just two home runs last season and now they're deadening the ball. But Nick So-Lak does have a solid history of power
Starting point is 00:31:58 in the minor leagues. And last season, the stack has numbers in general were not great, but max exit velocity, which usually translates well with in-game power, one 11.7 miles per hour that ranked 43rd of 142 qualified hitters for Nick Solex. So it's not astronomical, but it's still pretty good. 2019 in the minor leagues mentioned he had some pop across 115 games for Nick Soak. He batted 289, 27 home runs, five steals, an 894 OPS. and look at the steals. I think that he can provide double-digit steals
Starting point is 00:32:34 over the course of a full season. He just had seven steals last year in 58 games with the Texas Rangers and Solac ranked 91st in 91st percentile in sprint speed. The Rangers will run. Scott, I saw Chris Davis with K steal third base in a spring training game the other day with the Rangers. Since Chris Woodward
Starting point is 00:32:55 became their manager in 2019, the Rangers are, by far have by far the most seals in baseball. They have 180 steals. I think the next closest team's like 15 or 20 steals behind them. So they are going to run. I think Nick Solac is probably a better roto play, but
Starting point is 00:33:10 I think a sneaky 15-15 candidate and I think there's an outside shot that Nick Solac can get to 20 20 home runs and 20 steals. Scott, do you have any thoughts on Nixolek? Yeah, I'm pretty much with you. The homogenization of
Starting point is 00:33:27 the rankings is beginning here. I'm coming closer to your mind with Austin Meadows and Nick Solac. Yes. And who else? Who else was I moving up? Chris Paddock? Did you move Paddock up? Channeling my Frank.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Inner Frank. Yes, Paddock. Patrick, I'm moving him up with the revelations about his spin rate. So it's, it's inevitable and it has begun. The homogenization of the rankings, the mind-milding, we're there. I've moved so like out, but really the middle infield option that I've become
Starting point is 00:34:03 most enamored with recently here is Tommy Edmund, who obviously doesn't have the same hype he did a year ago. His production in 2020 wasn't nearly as good as in 2019, and he's going 136. So, I mean, you've got to draft him a little earlier than some of these guys. But he's batting leadoff for the Cardinals. he's gaining second base. He already has shortstop, third base, and outfield.
Starting point is 00:34:34 He's going to be quadruple eligible within the first week at the season, a base stealer who will probably score a lot of runs, probably hit for a high average. I don't know what Edmund's going to do power-wise, but he looked like he had some power in 2019. So that's a guy I'm suddenly much more interested in, just in the last few weeks that's happened. Solax more affordable, of course.
Starting point is 00:34:57 But Edmund, if he slips a little in drafts, I think he's very interesting. I think he's very interesting. Yeah, I've been coming around on Tommy Edmund as well. I don't know that he's going to walk all that much, which dings him a little bit in a points league, but he should see a lot of volume if he's leading off for that Cardinals lineup.
Starting point is 00:35:16 I just looked up his ADP from last season. It was 132.9. And this year for Edmund, you mentioned, It's 141. So the Cardinals added Nolan Aronado to their lineup, and somehow Tommy Edmund's ADP has dropped about 10 spots from where it was at last year. So 10 to 15 home runs, maybe 20 steals, 270 type batting average. If he remains the leadoff hitter, I mean, we can get a good amount of runs scored there with Tommy Edmund.
Starting point is 00:35:46 Now, I did see Matt Carpenter started a game at second base the other day in spring training. It's been a while since he's been a second baseman. Don't do this. since he's been a good hitter. But I don't think that would last long, even if the cartels started down that path. So was that your sleeper number two, Scott? Or did you just want to talk about Tommy Edmund?
Starting point is 00:36:05 I mean, I guess. I don't know, I don't know if it's better to just give more names or give more analysis, you know? That's kind of what I'm torn with right now. We are making much better pace today than we have probably in any podcast over the past month. So I think we can probably talk about as many players as we want for the next 15 minutes.
Starting point is 00:36:24 I want to bring up a guy that I think we both consider a sleeper. Let's go. So that the milding of the minds can continue. Austin Riley. I tried to roll my R. It didn't it go very well. Austin Riley.
Starting point is 00:36:37 Austin Riley of Los Bravos. We both like how much you cut down his strikeout rate last year. Right. As a rookie, you know, he got off to an incredible start and nine home runs in 18 games, but was striking out 36. 8% of the time. Texas Rangers had there.
Starting point is 00:36:56 That's like Joey Gallo. That's not going to cut it for most players. And, you know, obviously he fell off the earthen fantasy in 2019. Well, last year, that strikeout rate wasn't 36.8%. That was 23.8%. It's like the difference between Tim Anderson and Joey Gallo. He went from Joey Gallo strike array to Tim Anderson's. Now, we didn't see the big power that he showed.
Starting point is 00:37:23 as a rookie. 70 grade power is what baseball America gave him at their last report, which was similar to like Pete Alonzo level power, 40 Homer power potentially in Riley's bat. We didn't see it last year. But if this strikeout rate is something that sticks and he brings that in,
Starting point is 00:37:44 I mean, you're talking a potential stud there in Austin Riley. Scott, I couldn't agree more. But you're giving away all my breakout picks, man. Oh, is that you got them as a breakout? See, that's why. Well, this, this is, this brings up a philosophical question, right? Because why wouldn't Austin Riley be a breakout? I guess he broke out as a rookie, right? You know, you know how all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares? All breakouts are basically sleepers, but not all sleepers are breakouts. Okay. I could see that. That's how that works. I'm with you. I'm with you,
Starting point is 00:38:19 though, 100% on Austin Riley. The surface numbers don't look great. from last year, 239 batting average. 415 slug, but the expected numbers, according to stat cast, much better for him. 262, XBA, 471, expected slug. The average exit velocity last season was actually higher than in 2019 when he hit all those home runs. So 2019, 89.4 mile per hour, average exit velocity. Last year, it was 91.
Starting point is 00:38:48 So he's hitting the ball harder, he's making more contact. If he puts all these things together, he's not going to bat in the middle of the Braves lineup, but maybe he's sixth or seventh in the lineup, that's a deep lineup. If he's hitting on a 40 homer pace, like lineups are not stagnant, he probably moves up, you know?
Starting point is 00:39:07 Yeah, no, I think there's massive potential here. So I am with you. Let's pull up some ADP at third base and see what we're doing with Mr. Austin Riley right now. The ADP is 232.8, which I just, I think that's too low. I think I have them inside my top 200 in both formats right now. Going just ahead of him, David Fletcher, all right, that's not even a question.
Starting point is 00:39:29 Andres Jimenez, it's a different type of player, you know? Who would you rather have, Scott? It really depends what you need. Well, it depends. It depends what you need. Say a points league where needs are leveled out, then I would say Riley. But I probably need speed more in a rudder league just because you never have enough speed. So this is crazy. Austin Riley is going 40 spots behind Justin Turner. That I don't get.
Starting point is 00:39:58 I get it, but I'd rather have Riley at the discount, you know? I would rather have Riley straight up. I haven't ranked higher than Justin Turner. So, Gene Seguera, give me Austin Riley. Seguro's fine. It's kind of boring. I think Riley, I think Riley should be closer to Donaldson. Donaldson's at 186.6.6. You know, that's, I think that's probably the range. Riley should be. You're taking it a little far for me, Frank. Okay. Taking a little far. You're presuming a little too much.
Starting point is 00:40:24 I have them in the breakout column, Scott, so I'm a little bit more excited than you, but we do like Austin Riley quite a bit. And a starting pitcher sleeper, who I've mentioned a few times, he's kind of boring at this point. You've heard the name. You probably have the fatigue. Michael Paneda with the Minnesota Twins. He has made 31 starts for the team since the start of 2019, and he has a 391-ERA and a
Starting point is 00:40:48 116 whip during that time, 165 strikeouts across 172 and two-thirds inning. So almost strikeout per inning there. Of the 31 starts, Paneda has made since 2019, he's allowed three earned runs or less in 26 of them. And here are Michael Paneda's ranks among starting pitchers with at least 170 innings pitched over the last two seasons. His 12.8% swinging strike rate tied for 17th with Clayton Kirshaw, his 36% chase rate, O swing percentage, eighth best for Panetta, 18.3% K minus walk percentage,
Starting point is 00:41:28 28th among starting pitchers. He's free, get him towards the end of your draft, the ADP for Paneda, 237.6. And I think there's a chance, you know, if he stays healthy pitching in the American League Central, he can return top 40 starting pitcher value and he's going something like the 70s, it's starting pitcher off the board.
Starting point is 00:41:47 So I think this is literally just people sleeping on Michael Penaena just because he's boring, Scott. See, and I'd call him underrated rather than a sleeper. But, you know, I think all underrateds would qualify sleepers, too. They're, they're, um, the rhombus. What's the rombus? The rombus has equal angles or something. Parallelogram. I have, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:42:10 I haven't been in school for a long time, Scott. No, a rectangle has to have all 90 degree angles. So I don't know. The analogy is falling apart. But you get what I'm saying. I think also, who are we talking about? Sorry. Michael Paneda.
Starting point is 00:42:28 Michael Paneda. Yeah, no, I think he's somebody who can be part of a very small middle class at pitch or two. Because he's not going to take a step forward, you know, but he's going to throw a lot of innings. The whip's going to be good. He's going to be kind of high, but whatever. He's going to be solid. He's going to be much more solid than his ADP would suggest. My favorite sleeper starting pitcher is Griffin Canning.
Starting point is 00:42:49 Talked about him a few times. Let's talk about him again. Let's talk about what was going on with Griffin Canning, who I liked as a sleeper at this time last year, too. Come to find out, bum elbow in spring training. It's getting PCP injections. Everybody's like Tommy John, is that coming next? Everybody backed off of him, including me.
Starting point is 00:43:08 But he's ready to go when the season finally does start. Doesn't look right. It's lighter that made him so strong as a rookie. and it's not getting the whiffs it used to. Everybody loses faith again. But late in the year, the slider comes back. It starts getting the whiffs again. And in the meantime, he was working to develop a curveball
Starting point is 00:43:25 that paired with the slider to make everything better. His final five starts, his swinging strike rate jump from 9.9 to 14.5. It's a big jump. K per 9. People will probably relate to this better. 7.5 in his first. six starts, jumped to 10.4 in Griffin Canning's last five starts. All the numbers got better
Starting point is 00:43:50 in those last five starts. And I think he's back on the sleeper path. It's not uncommon to see him go completely undrafted. ADP 298, he's the 384th player off the board on average. I like Griffin Canning. And he is going behind some very questionable names too. He's going behind Caleb Smith who, okay, outside of a few starts that he had with the Marlins, I think it was at the beginning of the 2019 season, Caleb Smith has not done anything. Tanner Hauke, there is some sleeper appeal there, but again, not as much as canning. Not as much as canning, I would agree. Domingo Hermann. He has a shot to be in the Yankees rotation, but I still prefer canning over Hermann as well. Robbie Ray, give me Griffin Canning there. Michael Kopeck. Some upside.
Starting point is 00:44:43 but you don't know what the role's going to be. It sounds like he's going to start in the bullpen. So, yeah, I'm with you on this call. How about all the way up at Dane Dunning? Who would you rather have between those two, Scott? Canning or Dunning? For some reason, I haven't been that excited. I like Dunning when he first got called up
Starting point is 00:45:00 and he was getting all these swinging strikes. You backed off a little bit. Yeah, well, he didn't finish well. He changed his pitch mix. He started throwing the worst pitches more. Swinging strikes went down. hopefully the Rangers get to the bottom of that and fix them. But there's a question whether or not they do.
Starting point is 00:45:19 And even if they do, I think there's going to be workload concerns. So I don't know. I think if I'm settling for somebody with workload concerns anyway, I go for somebody like Drew Smiley. Who has legit strikeout upside? I mean, among pitchers with at least five starts last year, Smiley had the best K per 9.
Starting point is 00:45:44 Second best was Shane Bieber, who had a lot more than five starts, but Drew Smiley was number one. Those five starts were pretty short, but the velocity was a lot better on the fastball. The jump, like, I think it was the biggest jump of any pitcher, an average fastball velocity. Really hard to see him throwing even 150 innings this year, given the injury history, given how few innings he's thrown.
Starting point is 00:46:08 But the Braves made an $11 million investment in him. They want him to start every fifth day. We'll see how it goes. We'll see how it goes. Along those same lines, if I can sneak another name in here. Go ahead. A rising sleeper for me is Eliezer Hernandez. We talked about Pablo Lopez earlier.
Starting point is 00:46:27 Eliezer Hernandez also has the goal of pitching deeper into games and is also incorporating a new pitch to do it. He's incorporating a change-up. It sounds like that's further along in the development than Pablo Lopez's breaking ball, which you can't even say what kind of breaking ball is. Um, L.Azer's,
Starting point is 00:46:44 Liezer with just the two pitches, the fastball and the slider last year. He was similar to, similar to Drew Smiley and that he was getting a ton of wit strikeouts, 11.9 K-per-9. He had a 316 ERA, 1.01 whip. Only six starts for L.Azer Hernandez. He got hurt.
Starting point is 00:47:04 And in those six starts, the longest was five in a third inning. So very similar situation to Drew Smiley. but with a stated goal from Hernandez that he wants to pitch deeper into games. We'll see if he holds up. We'll see if he can do it. But cost is next to nothing. And I think upside-wise, he certainly meets the definition of a sleeper.
Starting point is 00:47:30 Elias or Hernandez has an ADP of 274.2. Scott, who would you rather have between the two sleepers you just brought up, Griffin Canning or Hernandez? Oh, Canning for sure. I thought you were going to say Smiley or Hernandez. That's a tougher call. Well, call it. So I had the option of nominating one or the other for a dollar at the end of our head-to-head salary cap draft the other day. And I went with Hernandez just because it was fresh on my mind, that story about the change up.
Starting point is 00:47:58 I regretted it afterward. Smiley's on the better team. He had the more dominant numbers. I mean, Aliasers, Hernandez's were dominant too, but Smiley's were even more so. So I think I'd lean Smiley, but it's close. All righty. Again, Drew Smiley going at 251 on Fantasy Pros. Eliezer Hernandez going 274.2. I will mention another player, another outfielder who has had some very bad injury luck. And that is Mitch Hanigur. He has not played a professional baseball game since June 6th of 2019. And this actually all started with a foul ball that he hit off of his groin.
Starting point is 00:48:40 and cover your ears, but it ruptured his testicle. So that was... I still heard that. Yeah, I'm sorry, Scott. I'm sorry you had to hear that. But as a result of that, he went down this rabbit hole of injuries. He had to have two core surgeries as a result of that. He had some back injuries as a result of the core surgeries that he had as well.
Starting point is 00:49:04 But he's doing all these kind of crazy training exercises now. I saw an Instagram video of him, Gator Wrestling, a 300. pound sandbags. So he's doing what he needs to do. Hopefully he can remain healthy. It sounds like he's going to be an everyday player for the Mariners. Again, this is Mitch Hanigar. And assuming he's healthy, if he comes anywhere close to the player he was back in 2018,
Starting point is 00:49:23 which I get it. That was forever ago. It was three years ago. But we could have a real steel on our hands. Hanager that year, 285 batting average, 26 home runs, 90 runs scored 93 RBI, and eight steals. That was good enough to be the 33rd overall player in Roto, and he was tied for the 13th best outfielder
Starting point is 00:49:45 in head-to-head points leagues. So it's not that I'm expecting that, but that is within the range of outcomes for Mitch Hanigar. His ADP as of now is 254.8. So another guy, just going super late. Any interest there, Scott, Mitch Hanigar? Oh, yeah. I mean, it's reminiscent of Mancini's situation.
Starting point is 00:50:07 It's been a little long. since we've seen Hanager. I think the risk is a little higher with Hanager. I think the reward is a little less with Hanager. But it's still good value, given what he could be. I do want to mention, we've talked about him enough, but Andrew Vaughn is near the top of my sleeper list, one I'm very excited about.
Starting point is 00:50:28 So I'll just get that mention in. The other rookie, oh, you know what? Does debuting in the postseason count is debuting still? He has no regular season stats to his name. And I just said the three yet to debut prospects that I would be prioritizing, Irvon, Jared Kalnick, and Wander Franco. But that leaves out Alex Kierloff,
Starting point is 00:50:55 who technically did debut in the postseason. I think it went one for four. Crushed it at the alternate training site. And a guy who, early in his minor league career, as a hitter, got compared to Christian Yellich. I saw some of those comments. His numbers from 2018 in the miners were just very impressive.
Starting point is 00:51:16 I think like 44 doubles, a 348 batting average, something like that, and 20 homers. Hey, I got the numbers on the dot. Look at that. Look at you. For Alex Kirillov. Like, Eddie Rosario is really good. The twins just non-tendered him. They just said, whatever.
Starting point is 00:51:35 We don't need you anymore. We got Alex Kirillov ready to go here. I mentioned Austin Riley got a 70 power grade from baseball America on the 20 to 80 scale, 70, you know, they don't hand out 70s to many players. That's what they're giving Kirillov
Starting point is 00:51:51 for his hit tool. And they're giving him a 60 for his power tool, which is also all-star level. Like, that sounds like a stud, right? Like, you know, I cited his 2018 numbers because the 2019 numbers weren't that good. He was dealing with a wrist injury, and I think that's why he's not getting more hyped now
Starting point is 00:52:07 because you look at his stat line and like, whatever. This guy looks like Mark Katsi, but he's not. He's really good. I was going to say, who's that, just to mess with you, Mark Katsi. Yes, I know who Mark Katsi is. I'm with you. I have Alex Kiroloff in my Sleepers 2.0 article on the site as well.
Starting point is 00:52:26 And I looked at all of his plate appearances. You add everything up in the strikeouts. 1,204 minor league played appearances, he has just a 16% strikeout rate. So this isn't your typical. Okay, power hitter, he'll have some batting average. He makes a lot of contact. So I am, we're in agreement there.
Starting point is 00:52:44 I like Kirillov quite a bit. Good lineup to hit in with the Minnesota Twins as well. I think he can make an impact right away, especially in those five outfielder leagues, but I wouldn't mind stashing him in a points league as well. Anyone that you quickly else wanted to hit on, Scott? Are we running out of time? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:01 Probably a lot of players I want to hit on. Let me do it quickly. So some kind of bounce back sleeper candidates, Josh Bell, Mitch Garver, I think the upside for them, the ADP doesn't in any way take into account their upside, basically. Their upside is, they both have best in their position upside, frankly. Okay, I'm not going to say that for Bell because Freddie Freeman is there. But close to best at his position upside for Bell.
Starting point is 00:53:27 I mean, he had a near 1,000 OPS two years ago. And Mitch Garver had a near 1,000 OPS two years ago. He was the best catcher by far on a per game basis. both of them seemed to get messed up during the short season lack video access, weird buildup. I know Mitch Garver was dealing with a, I believe it was an oblique injury that just totally messed up his numbers.
Starting point is 00:53:51 But people are being too dismissive of both of them. I think I couldn't really call Gio Orchella breakout, but just because he's going too late, I consider him a sleeper. J.D. Davis, provided he gets the playing time for the Mets. Yeah, he put the ball on the ground too often last year, but otherwise the advanced stats still look very strong. We remember what he did in 2019.
Starting point is 00:54:14 It looked studly near 900 OPS. Still considered J.D. Davis a sleeper. Aaron Hicks for the Yankees, if he bats in the upper third of that lineup, good O.B.P. guy, probably like 20 homer, 15 steel guy. And, you know, he goes very late. A couple of infielders. Jared Walsh for the Angels
Starting point is 00:54:40 who put on a power display in September last year and did it while striking out, I think only like 15% of the time, like greatly improved strikeout rate, really hard to believe, given his minor league track record, that he could strike out that little. But if he does,
Starting point is 00:54:55 then, I mean, he could be, he could be a big asset for you. Brendan Rogers, post-type sleeper for the Rockies, former top prospect seems like he's finally getting his chance. I like grabbing him late. Bobby Dalback hit two home runs in spring
Starting point is 00:55:14 the Red Sox Spring Training game, eight down the stretch last year. Three true outcomes guy probably, so you got to guard the batting average, but could be a big source of power for very cheap. I don't know. He is crushing it. Dollback is crushing it too.
Starting point is 00:55:29 I think you had two home runs, a double dong on Wednesday in spring training. Both of them went to the opposite field. I was watching that game live. And Willie Castro is really starting to move up my sleeper ranks too. Two long home runs this spring. And I was most concerned by, he had great numbers last year, but did not impact the ball that hard. Seems to be impacting it hard now.
Starting point is 00:55:52 Man, I can keep going. There's so many. Scott, I'll throw one your way that I know you like if you want to talk about him as well. But just going super late in drafts is probably more for deeper leagues. But Advert Aalzali of the Chicago Cubs, he's part of a position battle. if he's going to be in the rotation yet. I think he's battling with Trevor Williams. So if he can't beat out Trevor Williams,
Starting point is 00:56:11 Al-Lai is probably not a good sleeper. Well, that's the thing. I feel like the Cubs have positioned themselves so they don't have to have him in their rotation, Al-ZE-Lai. So it's kind of lost some steam there. But it'll happen, obviously. It's a lot of bad pitchers blocking him. Developed a slider last year, and it became his best pitch,
Starting point is 00:56:30 a really elite swing and miss pitch. And he just developed it last year. last two starts last year combined nine innings four hits allowed 15 strikeouts in those nine innings for adbert alzalai so you're right you're right is he's like my favorite deep sleeper pitcher i would say um there's a couple other hitters i wanted to mention before we got out here oh horhe polanco uh gaining second base eligibility this year the weakest position his number like he strikes out only 15 percent of the time last year that's normal for him, still had the great line drive percentage.
Starting point is 00:57:10 Going to hit for average. Another guy who you look at the numbers from 2020 and you're like, it just doesn't make sense. Small sample, weird circumstances. Jorge Polanco is going to bounce back. And to be a must start second basement, I feel like, when all is said and done, who else can I go to here?
Starting point is 00:57:31 I feel like, Scott, you just have a list of handwritten out 50 sleepers that you're just like, all right, which one do I want to talk about now? Oh, you know who I'm starting to, um, starting to get optimistic feeling for again is Willie, Willie Calhoun. It's so hard to draft him because he's like the eighth DH only player, but he worked out with Doug Lada, Doug Lada, the famous hitting guru who made Justin Turner what he is, who got that, that last amazing season out of Hunter Pence with, the Rangers, and Willie Calhoun was working with him this offseason. It got messed up by getting hit in the jaw.
Starting point is 00:58:13 Last spring, broke his jaw, never got quite right. It sounds like the Rangers want him to be in the lineup against righties and lefties if he proves he can handle it. That's something Chris Woodward was saying. He's going to pick up outfield eligibility too, it sounds like at some point, mostly DH, but also some left fields so that they can get Chris Davis in the lineup with him sometimes. and I think he qualifies as a sleeper. Oh, he definitely does.
Starting point is 00:58:42 Willie Calhoun, also free. And I'm still holding on. I'm still holding on to those minor league numbers, Scott. I won't forget the 2017 for Willie Calhoun and the minors. 300 batting average, 31 home runs, 927 OPS, hits a lot of fly balls, makes a lot of contact. People don't remember. Willie Calhoun was originally in the Dodgers farm system. He came over to the Rangers in the U.Darvis trade.
Starting point is 00:59:04 And he was at one point on par with Cody Bellinger. They were the same level prospect in the Dodgers organization. We all know what Cody Bellinger went on to do. I'm not saying that Willie Calhoun has that upside. But this is a legit former great prospect in Calhoun. Yep. I would say Nick Senzel is a starter, a sleeper. Now that he's the confirmed starter in center field for the Reds.
Starting point is 00:59:31 He's another one. He's another one like Solac, where if he plays every day, which a little bit tougher to project for Senzel, they have a lot of names there, he has an injury history, he can go 20-20. It's not crazy.
Starting point is 00:59:44 Yeah. A Hunter Renfro, I think, is kind of a Bobby Dalbeck level sleeper where you know he's going to hurt you in batting average, but in that park, his swing is, his swing is,
Starting point is 00:59:53 he pulls a lot of fly balls. So Fenway Park, it's easy to envision him hitting like 40 home runs there. So, you know, I think you have to call him a sleeper. I will not end this podcast until Scott White gives me permission. So we'll just keep going.
Starting point is 01:00:09 Dalton Varsho, of course, especially since Colt Calhoun is going to miss the start of the season with the torn meniscus. And now Lecastro, Tim LaCastro has COVID. So the options for the diamondbacks are dwindling in their outfield. Varsho, of course, catcher eligible. Oh, deep second base leaver. Thai France for the Mariners his minor league numbers are ridiculous
Starting point is 01:00:38 he hit $399 one year it's not clearly it was it was inflated by his surroundings and the ball and everything but a guy who could hit for average and decent power I think
Starting point is 01:00:50 I mean the list could like I do a deep sleepers column toward the end of draft prep season every year where he just kind of throw in all my last sleepers and it usually ends up like 30 players long is just way too much. But yeah, I think nobody else is burning my tongue.
Starting point is 01:01:13 Oh, wait, we haven't mentioned a single relief pitcher sleeper. So just for people who only listen to this podcast because Sleepers is such a buzzword, I'm going to say my favorite relief pitcher sleepers this year are Will Smith of the Braves and Amir Garrett of the Reds, despite the uncertainty surrounding who's closing for those teams. I think it's going to be them. I think there are no, no good alternatives, really. None that makes sense anyway over them. So Will Smith, Amir Garrett, if that's my closing duo to start the year,
Starting point is 01:01:46 I'll feel really good about it. So would you say that it's closing time on the podcast? Sure. Yeah, closing time for them, closing time for us, I gather. And, yeah. I guess we'll just leave it at that. All righty. I mean, you gave us a ton of names.
Starting point is 01:02:06 No one can complain about this sleeper podcast here on fantasy baseball today. For Scott, I'm Frank, thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Breakouts, they're sleepers too.

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