Fantasy Baseball Today - Sleepers! Plus a Tout Wars Recap and SS/3B Strategy (03/04 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 4, 2020

Who are our favorite sleepers for 2020? We give you a few names at the top of the show including Mark Canha and Mitch Keller and we save the rest for the last 25 minutes of the episode ... Scott recaps his team in Tout Wars (13:55) which is a 15-team Roto league with industry analysts (here's a link! https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2020-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-scott-whites-tout-wars-team-a-breakdown/). Within this discussion we talk about the decision to chase steals or to avoid that trap, and Scott details his approach at SP and RP. Then we reveal some Spring Training standouts (28:40). Is Ryan Mountcastle worth drafting? How about Ian Happ? ... Sleepers (40:00)! We've got a lot of them, especially at the very end of the show when Scott rattles off a long list of players to consider with a late pick. The Yankees themselves have about 5 sleepers. Corbin Burnes and Alex Wood are hoping for big seasons. And Corey Kluber might actually be a sleeper ... Your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome to your Wednesday show, March 4th. Adam Azer, Scott White.

And oh, welcome back, Chris Towers. Sorry we're inconveniencing you by making you be on a fantasy baseball podcast today. So, my friend, Andrew Julian, who works at CBS Sports as a trending editor, was coming to New York. He's not a big New York fan. So I had to take the day off, take a little personal day, and show them around town. Represent New York. You know what? Good for you.

Next time you have to do that, you miss the podcast. No problems with it. Now, let me ask you guys this. On the stupidometer, zero to 10, 10 being extremely stupid. How stupid would it be to take two second baseman in your first four picks? It depends. Did you also take two starting pitches with your first four picks? I mean, if it's Scott White, you probably took five starting pitchers with your first four picks, but, you know, I'm just saying.

I suppose it depends on who the second baseman are. They're pretty good. If it was Marco Scuder Roe and Nick Pinto, it would be really, really stupid. They're not even playing in baseball anymore. It's Scott's Tower's team. Cotel Marte around 3, Jose Altoouet around 4, Cotel Marte will be an outfielder. That's a 15 teamer, right?

It is. It is. So you're talking about, you know, in the 40 to 60 range for those two. It wasn't like you took Ctele-Marte 24th overall or something. I was just looking for the best bats. And, yeah, getting Jose Al-Tuve with my round 4 pick in a 15-team league,

I don't care if I already had second base field. Yeah, it's pretty good. The next hitter was Matt Olson. Or was that the, yeah, that was the next hitter, Matt Olson, then Moncada, Chris Bryant. Good job, Scott. All right, we'll talk about your Tout Wars team in a moment. Today's sleepers, mostly in the second half of the episode. Remember to check out the time codes. I'll help you out. I'll let you know where certain things are. Not everything in the show, but certain things in the show are. So I'll ask you for your favorite 2020 sleeper. Also, I'm going to put the link to the Facebook group. Please join that. That'll be in our episode description as well. Scott, who is, if you had to pick one, who's your favorite 2020 sleeper? If I had to pick one, it's Mark Cannot, which I think I've voiced on many occasions. And although it never seems to go this way in the drafts I'm a part of, he certainly goes in a range where I think I could fairly call him a sleeper. I'm sure it's gone up a little. Let me check 249 overall now.

The official ADP is 271, but 249 is where he ranks in ADP. So that's, I think, the latest you could hope to get him. But, yeah, I usually end up having to take him like in round 13, 14 of a 12 team league. And I'm still happy to do it because he was basically Chris Bryant for the time he was starting last year. Okay, you took him 187th overall in your Tout Wars lineup last night. Tat Wars is an industry expert. This one's mixed league. Industry expert, mixed league draft, 15 teams.

It's Roto. And Scott took Kana. one round after Kyle Tucker, this was the 13th round, 187th overall, Brian Reynolds, Mark Kanna, those were Scott Kingery, Wilson Ramos,

those were the only hitters taken in that round. Everybody else was a pitcher. Because they didn't get the good ones like I did. Now, question though, I see Yassio Pueg

went a little bit later. Who would you rather have? And then Justin Upton. Who would you rather have Kana, Upton, or Pueg? Kana. Well, you know, Maybe you made a mistake.

Maybe you made a mistake. I didn't make a mistake. No, it's, for me, it's not close. I mean, Puee doesn't have a team yet. Oh, it's not close. Come on. Well, if Puee had a team, it would be close with him at Kana. If Pueke had a team, it would be him in Roto.

In head to head, it might be Kanna. But if Pueke had a team, there aren't a lot of guys who can steal 20 bases and hit 25 homers. Yeah, my initial ranking is when I didn't know Pueek would have trouble finding a job, had him, I think. four or five spots higher than Cana in my outfield ranking. So that's fair. But, you know, even if Pueeg signed today, when is he going to be ready? And are we sure that he'll sign with a team that wants to play him every day?

Everybody kind of has their starting lineups penciled in at this point. Colorado Rockies sign Yassiel Pueig, you cowards. I mean, Sam Hillier. I think that the Rockies are all the phone right now. He's having a hard time getting in the lineup. Five minutes in. Not even. 4.30.

All right, Chris, who's your favorite 20-20 sleeper? Well, so I was worried that I was going to be talking about someone that I've talked about too much lately and that it might bore people. But since Scott picked Mark Cannon, I'm going to go with Mitch Keller. I am absolutely 100% all in on Mitch Keller. I wrote about it early in the week, and I think I talked about it on Monday's podcast. I'm all in on the Pirates pitching staff, specifically Mitch Keller, Joe Musker, and Chris Archer, they are all among my favorite.

sleepers after pick 200, but Mitch Keller, I think, just has absolutely enormous upside. He throws a 95 mile per hour fastball on average, which means he hits probably 98, pretty regularly.

He's got one of the highest spin rates in baseball on his fastball. That's a really good thing. And his slider and curveball were really, really good last season. It was actually his fastball that got hit hard.

And one of the things that the Pirates, coaching staff. They got rid of Ray Searge and added Oscar Marin to be their pitching coach. And he's a real analytically savvy guy. And one of the things that both he and Keller have talked about is Keller needs to throw his fastball less. He needs to be less predictable.

And it's 2020. That's what pretty much every pitcher except Lance Lynn needs to do. And so I think he's going to be very, very good. I'm extremely excited for him. So I put together a group of pitchers that are going to go in that range. And I asked you guys for like five-ish sleepers. So I had one plus these four pitchers. And, you know, I like to get one of these guys.

And maybe if the price is right, I can get two of these guys. But Michael Kopeck, Mitch Keller, Brandon McKay, and Dylan Seas. And Seas stands out because he, Unlike the others, he walks a lot of guys. He did more than four walks per nine of the minors, more than four walks per nine of the majors. But he still, I mean, he still can be really, really good. But that's an issue there.

McKay and Keller, similar issues. They had high babbips. Keller had a 475 babbip last year. That's probably a little unlucky. He got hit really hard, but yeah. And McKay got hit even harder. If you look at his expected stats, I mean, with all those strikeouts

they come out looking good for Mitch Kelly he has an ERA over seven and it was a small sample size I mean obviously that that contributes to the ERA being so high and maybe it doesn't even make sense to look at expected stats when you're talking a sample that small

but the point is there's a lot of talent there yeah there's a lot of talent with this group of four McKay and Keller though they had the same problem in that third time through the order and again it was small sample sizes but they were both terrible. Opponents hit over 400 against them third time through the order.

For McKay, that was only three and two thirds. I don't even know if there's anything worth looking at there. But if I give you those four pitchers, Kopeck, Keller, McKay, and Dylan Seas, Scott, how would you rank them? Well, I go with the ones who look like they have a job right now, and Keller would be a distant number one for me because I feel like he showed more in the 11 starts he made last year than Seas did. But Seas, of course, has a lot of upside two.

so he would be number two for me. I think I would go Kopec over McKay. I really liked the way Copac was trending before Tommy John's surgery. He seemed like he had nipped to that walk issue that had plagued him throughout his minor league career in the bud right before his call up. And his numbers,

his last few starts before his call up were just out of this world. Throws very hard, tons of strikeout potential. I think once the health question is addressed and I guess once there's a free spot in that rotation

he'll be in and he'll just take the job and run with it. McKay I could see bouncing back and forth between the majors and minors all year. Chris,

how would you rank them? Very similarly. I think I would put McKay over Kopec but definitely Keller number one cease a little bit of a gap because I don't think

McKay has quite as much upside as those two guys. I wrote about post type sleepers earlier this week for starting pitcher and basically it's all guys going after

300 in ADP and that includes this group and you know one thing that I said was if you're looking for 2018 Blake Snell this year

Dylan Cs might be my favorite candidate for that kind of leap because it's really just about improving the command a little bit so right now

the Ray's rotation has certainly Blake Snell assuming hell. Well, Blake's now, Charlie Borden, Tyler Glass now. And then you've got Yanni Chorinos, you got Ryan Yarbrough. These guys can be used in different roles. Trevor Richards.

Trevor Richards only made three starts for the raise, but he had a one, in a pitch seven games. He had a 193 ERA. He had five walks, 24 strikeouts, and 23 in a third. So there is definitely some competition there for Brendan McKay to overcome. So you heard from Scott and Chris, their favorite sleepers, Mark Kanna for Scott, Mitch Keller for Chris. For me, I'm always a bounce back candidate kind of guy. And Chris Davis of the Oakland Athletics,

kind of do have to specify it right now, I guess, with the spring training that Chris Davis of the Orioles is having. Chris Davis is 32 years old. He batted 220. He had a 680 OPS last year. He was awful. On May 5th, he got hurt. And he wasn't really doing that well before May 5th,

but he still was on a home run pace that was like, he's on pace for more than 40 homers. He just wasn't doing much else. But that's a, you know, if his season is basically up to May 5th, that's a very small sample size. He ran into the wall. He had a left hip contusion. He said his oblique area was hurting him. Two weeks later, he goes on the IL.

His entire season was messed up. How much of it was the injury? I don't know. But all I do know is this. Three years in a row, he hit 247 with more than 40 home runs. More than 100 RBIs. How do you go from that? to just awful

overnight. I got to think that the injury is a part of it. You hurt your hip. Yeah. The other reason... It happens. It happened to a lot of players in baseball history. This is terrible. Sub-700 OPS.

That's like hard to believe. I mean, I guess the other Chris Davis... If you're specifying 40 plus home runs, I don't know that that's happened a lot. But if you're saying this guy went for being a great power hitter to just not even playable... from one year to the next. That, there's been plenty of those guys.

It's worth noting he's 32 years old, so it wouldn't be out of the question, but I 100% agree with you, Adam. I think, you know, I think he still had like a 260 ISO before the injury. I think he's an obvious call there. Yeah, so he's DH only, Chris Davis, and can he pick up outfield eligibility? So he played four games in the outfield in 2009. You need five on CBS to gain eligibility within a season.

You need 20 games to keep it next season. But all four of those games in the outfield were in National League parks. And three of them were before the injury, only one after the injury. It doesn't look, unless he plays in the outfield in a non-inter league game, all he has to do is make an appearance there. It doesn't have to start or anything. It doesn't look like he's going to pick up eligibility in the outfield until at the earliest the All-Star break.

More likely in August. Yeah, so plan on Chris Davis being DH-only for much of your season. All right, guys. We're going to do an extra show this week. We're going to do a separate mailbag podcast on Saturday. It'll air. We'll record it on Friday. We're definitely going to talk auction this week, hopefully tomorrow.

But for the mailbag podcast, you can send your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. But also, I will not read everyone, but I'll read a lot of your Apple podcast questions. So if you want to leave us a review, a five-star rating and a review in Apple Podcasts and include a question, non-keeper questions are preferred, include like a good question that can help everybody,

those will be featured on the Mailbag episode that will air on Saturday. So do that in Apple Podcasts, leave us a five-star review, a question, comment, and we'll read your question. How'd Tout Wars go, Scott? Tout Wars went, I think, well. I think it went well.

It didn't go exactly the way I planned it, but my number one priority in every draft this year, which is to get four of my top 37 starting pitchers. I did accomplish that. I, and it's interesting, because my performance in Tout War's last year, where I took Blake Snell with, my second round pick earlier than I had taken a starting pitcher in that league previously

and then just got crushed in all the pitching categories. That kind of contributed to my whole philosophy of drafting pitchers this year, why you need to account for the volatility of the position still, even recognizing that it's a higher priority to get the high-end guys. You need to account for it and you need to do it by drafting access. So that's what I made sure I did. Now, I didn't necessarily, I didn't at all, in fact, expect to spend each of my first two picks on a starting pitcher. I had the seventh overall pick of 15.

I figured the top five would be the usual top five in every, just about every draft we've done this preseason. And then whoever was picking sixth would decide between Trey Turner and Garrett Cole for me. And that would I probably end up with Trey Turner in the seventh spot, get a nice head. had stolen bases there. Well, Juan Soto went fourth overall. This is OBP or a batting average league, by the league? Yeah, not totally crazy because it is OBP instead of batting average. It's traditional 5 by 5 scoring otherwise, but that is an exception, and it made for some

interesting picks in places. One of them was Juan Soto fourth overall, which I wouldn't have done, but nonetheless it happens. So I was faced with the decision between Garrett Cole and Trey Turner, and also in part because it was an OBP league, I decided to go with Garrett Cole. Trey Turner is probably going to be above average and batting average, but probably just average in on-base percentage,

not a guy who walks a lot. So I went with Garrett Cole and crossing my fingers that maybe miraculously Jose Ramirez would make it back to me in round two. He didn't, of course, and neither did Fernando Tatis. He went to pick before mine. So if I wanted steals in round two, it meant taking Starling Marte was the obvious and next base dealer up.

He's not a great on base source. Doesn't walk much at all. And it's not like you're going to count on, it's not like you're counting on him for a steals total this year that's going to carry you in the category. You know, he'll probably get in the 25 range, maybe closer to 30.

But it's not going, it's not like your steals issues are solved by drafting Starling Marte. So it seemed like a concession. and yet if I went, if I was just drafting a pure bat, there were enough of those that I knew I could get a good one still in round three. I wasn't sure how starting pitcher was going to look in round three of a 15 team league with Chris Sale being removed from the equation.

I just, I wasn't confident with how that was going to look. And I wanted four good starting pitchers anyway. Were you putting Blake Snell, though? You were removing Chris Sale. Did you still put Blake Snell in that category? I still have Blake Snell in that category. I'm not as high on him as other people seem to be, though. I think I have drafted him in one league so far.

But obviously, this wasn't the stage where you consider Blake Snell. I would consider Blake Snell probably as my third starting pitcher. But Shane Bieber was there, so I took Shane Bieber. Okay. And those were my first two picks. Now, having two starting pitchers that high. high end, I think freed me up to really go after hitting for a few rounds. It turned out it wasn't just one round.

It wasn't just round three where I could still get a high end bat, which ended up being Catell Marte. He was not a zero for steals, by the way. But then rounds four and five as well. Round four, Jose Altuvae was still there. As we mentioned at the top of the show, okay, I can move Cotel Marte to outfield or middle infield or whatever. I can fit both of those guys.

I have to take Jose Al-Tuva there. And then in round five, Charlie Blackman was still there in a 15-team-five outfielder league. That's like 66th overall for Charlie Blackman. Yeah. That's insane. Yeah. Ramon Luriano was the next pick, the next outfielder. Those are three hitters who basically perform like first rounder.

They basically performed like first rounders last year, fringy first rounders. Altufe was on a per game basis because he missed some time with injury. But all three of them did. And so I feel like to get that three hitters that high end after investing my first two picks in starting pitchers, really went a long way to catching me up in whatever I sacrificed in those hitting categories.

Now, I didn't have a steel source yet, five rounds into a 15-team Roto League. that's not good. There were plenty of Steele's reaches already happening at that point. Kevin Bizio, whose value is raised a little by it being an OBP league,

but still he went ahead of Jose Al-Tuva, I think primarily because of what he can contribute in stolen bases. Luis Robert, who probably won't be a great source of on-base percentage, actually went in the same round as Charlie Blackman,

just a few picks later. So people are definitely... The Luis Robert one is... Yeah. Ridgulous. People are definitely reaching for steals all low, And yet I knew I still wanted a couple high-end arms and I knew I still wanted to keep pace in the hitting categories.

So what I ultimately decided to do was kind of leverage the demand for the two scarcest but also most volatile categories, which are stolen bases and then 15 team league saves. those the players who contribute those were going consistently higher than I wanted to take them and the thing about those two categories is they're not really affecting other categories right they're you're just kind of paying for that for what the player can do in that specific category and it's it's not always reliable that they're going to do it from year to year so i just kind of let everybody else pay up for those i ended up with sunny gray as my third starting pitcher in round six Lance Lynn as my fourth in round eight. I even ended up with Matthew Boyd, who's not in my top 37, but he has the innings and

strikeout potential of a high-end pitcher if he can make some improvements against the home runs. I even ended up with him in round 11. And so that's basically my pitching staff. I should, there's definitely tons of strikeouts there, and I can afford to lose a couple of those guys to injury and still probably be in good shape with pitching. If they all manage to stay healthy, okay. that's good trade bait. There will always be somebody looking for that on the trade market.

So I'm not really concerned about that. Hitting my best hitters otherwise, I got Josh Bell in round seven, Corey Seeger in round nine. I got a lot of upside picks later in the draft like Joe Adele in round 16, Nick Solack in round 17, who I think won't be a zero for steals. Sam Hilliard, round 18, Carter Caboom, Tyler O'Neill, very end of the draft, Ryan Mountcastle, and Mike Ford.

I like stashing my bench in this league with hitters who I feel like have the potential to make. They're low probability plays, but if they do break through, they could make a big impact. And so I feel like I got some of those. I got Kyle Tucker in round 12. He obviously have to pay a little more for him, but he fits that description.

And could hopefully give me steals. mentioned Barkana Adam, how I got him. What I ended up doing to address the steals and stolen base, steals and saves shortages, is I ended up getting the steel specialist at him, like you like to do, Malik Smith in round 15. Round 15. Like, in a 15 team league, I cannot believe Malik Smith lasted that long.

That was kind of part of it. Yeah, I kept waiting for something. somebody to take Malick Smith and then I would take John Bertie. But he just kept falling and falling and falling. And it's like, well, shoot, I have the major league stolen base leader last year is unclaimed. And here I am worrying about stolen bases. Your team is interesting. I mean, I can't believe you got Charlie Blackman.

So your first five picks were Garrett Cole, Shane Bieber, Catelle Marte, Jose Altoouet, and Charlie Blackman. and I just, you have to sit there and go, well, do I adjust to all these people taking steals, or do I just take better hitters? And I think you do the right thing. Make a stronger team. Make some trades in the season if you have to. The fact that you were able to get Malick-Smith, we didn't know that you would be able to at the time. That's huge.

But even if you didn't come away with Malick-Smith, as long as you're willing to make trades, I think just taking more valuable players and a guy like Charlie Blackman, 66th overall, is insane. instead of somebody like Ramone Luriano who might steal 20 bases or Luis Robert who might steal 20 bases given the history with the white socks I think you did the right thing.

So what were you going to say, Chris? You should put a link to the mock draft results right up that Scott did on CBSSports.com in the show notes. There was a lot there. Okay. Yeah.

For this draft, for the Tow Wars draft? Yeah, it's up on CBS. sports.com, right? Yes, yes. And you called it a mock draft, so I was just making sure we talked about the same thing. Scott's right up of his Tout Wars team. If you want to follow along, it'll be in show notes. And on CBSSports.com.

I do want to mention what happened with closers, because that was the other thing that I was just unwilling to pay up for with the caliber of bats and in some cases arms that were still available. So basically, by the end of round 15 guys like Mark Malanson Joe Jimenez those real bottom of the barrel type closers

were gone. There was virtually nothing left there. And so I thought, okay, I guess I'm just punting here. Well, Brandon Kinsler and Wade Davis, who people view as being even lower than bottom of the barrel, they were still out there and then they just kept hanging around

and hanging around by round 19, Kinsler was still there. I took him. Round 22. I took Wade Davis. Hunter Harvey, who's a former top prospect who showed well in the Orioles bullpen last year, I think he could emerge as the closer there. I got him at round 24.

I think I gave myself a fighting chance in that category. For paying virtually nothing for it, everybody else was paying an upcharge for it. I paid practically nothing. I have two front runners for saves right now. Now, Kinsler and Wade Davis, I don't have much confidence they're good enough to keep the role, but they have a history in the role. They could keep it. It could work out fine.

But mostly, I just hope they keep me afloat until new options emerge on the waiver wire, which always happens among safe sources because there's so much turnover there. One final question. If this had been a batting average rather than OBP league and you had the seventh pick, which you've taken Trey Turner over Garrett Cole. That's what my rankings say? I don't know if it's another situation like Acuna versus Trout where because I went against it, I didn't go and change my rankings.

That was ultimately the deciding factor for me, where I said, okay, Trey Turner is good for batting average, he's pretty ordinary for on-base percentage. Is he a high-end enough player? all things considered in this format for me to devote my first round pick to him. And I decided no. But that wasn't the only consideration.

I started thinking about the injuries he'd suffered over the years. I started thinking about what my power numbers would look like if I wasted this chance to grab a high-end pitcher. And then, so then I had to take one later and wasn't able to take a power bat at that point. So there were a lot of things that factored into. I think if it's a 12-team league where the player pool's not going to be stretched as thin and it's batting average, I probably would take Trey Turner over Garrett Cole just so I could relax about the stolen bases. But it's a close call.

All right, good luck, man. I like your team. Let's see how it does. News and notes, Justin Verlander pitched. so it looks like he's you know he's in good shape no issues there Blake Snell played catch

making progress I guess the brewers are close to signing Christian Yewitch to a long-term deal which will seem to be kind of a steel yeah yeah AJ Puck has a mild left shoulder strain where did AJ Puck go in

Tout Wars P-UK he went 17th round first pick of the 17th round I don't want to do the math. But he went just ahead of Adrian Hauser. 16 times 15 plus 1. Let me check.

Yeah, we could probably do that. 241. Oh, I was like right there. I was about to say 241. He went right ahead of Adrian Hauser and Chris Archer and Anthony DiSclifani. Scott, what do you think about those for? Puck, Hauser, Archer, DeSclifani. My favorite is Hauser.

My second favorite might actually be, now that there's a health issue for Pug, and might actually be Desclophani. But if you're going for upside late in a draft, puck is the better choice there. Boo. And Adam Eaton left with hamstring tightness. And he might be like a lead-off man for the nationals,

at least against righties. So it's going to be an opportunity for someone in Washington. Spring training notes, risers and fallers. Are there any big, big spring training risers so far? Well, we've never seen Lewis Brinson get off to a really good start in the spring. and then struggle come regular season. So I think Louis Brinson being awesome has to be at the top of the best.

Yeah, he's 429 entering Wednesday. Yes, he was the star of spring training last year. Marlins out for the Louis Brinson. He was the star of the first week of spring training. Yeah, he had five home runs in his first seven games. Then I think he ended up with like 24 strikeouts and three walks or something. Yeah, I took him in Toul Wars last year because it was early in pre-training. I mean,

You don't want to take too much out of spring training stats to begin with. You definitely don't want to take too much out of spring training stats after a week. It's something to watch with every single one of these guys. Chris Davis with a C, you know, he added 25 pounds of muscle this off seat, which is a lot. To his eyes. That's a lot. That's a lot of muscle. They all went to his eyes because he has six walks, one strikeout.

I may have mischaracterized that. He gained 25 pounds, mostly through strength training. It's a lot of weight to put on. But he said that the idea was that it would help him hit for power more easily and more naturally and not have to kind of stretch for it. Now, right. I don't, I didn't think that Chris Davis ever really had to stretch for power. Well, I thought that was his whole thing. It was more of a mental thing from what I understood.

Like he had the confidence that he didn't have to overswing now. Maybe. Really for me, Ian Hap is my favorite spring training riser. Cubs outfielder batting 467 with two home runs so far, one walk, one strikeout. This is entering Wednesday. And, you know, I did some pretty good things last year in a quiet way. Post-hyped sleeper Ian Hap. Will he be a regular player for the Cubs?

He'll have to win the center field job. And, you know, we'll see what happens with that. Albert Amora, who's probably a better defender than Ian Hap, although he's been even worse as a hitter. So we'll see. I think that one's going to come down to the wire, and I think both will play. Amora did, met with a hitting specialist.

I want to say this offseason and made some swing changes. Yeah, he did that last offseason too. I bought, I bought into Albert Almora as a sleeper last year. I keep trying. I would say that most of the, most of the risers in spring training, and it's probably the way it should always be,

and more has to do with the things the organization is saying about them and how it looks like their role is shaping up as opposed to what they've actually done. And for me, for me personally, the biggest, and I think what I've seen in drafts reflects this, the biggest is Josh James of the Astros, who looks like he has the inside track on the fifth starter job. he averaged almost 15 strikeouts per nine innings.

I think it was like 14 and a half. Strikeouts per nine innings as a reliever last year after a really strong minor league showing the year before. But walks were high for him. Made an adjustment to his delivery. He's more linear to the plate now, he says, and should mean more strikes. If you put that kind of strikeout potential in the starting role and you take away the walk concerns,

I mean, what are you talking about? that's high end potential there clearly almost as excited about him as I am Jesus Luzardo at this point he in 2018 between the majors and minors he threw 137 and one third innings with a 308 ERA and 200 strikeouts Josh James Josh James of the Houston Astros

that is not out of the question yeah all right we're excited about him strikeouts in a low 3 ZRA is eminently gannable. It's in the high end, but it's possible. What about Ryan Mountcastle, Scott? You drafted him in Tout Wars, another first baseman for Baltimore

batting 333 with a home run, no walks, three strikeouts, three doubles. Yeah, he's really interesting. I think the upside is probably Nicholas Castellanos, like, not necessarily the superpowered Nicholas Castionis.

some people are expecting this year in Cincinnati, which is normal Nicholas Castianos. He was so good at AAA. I think he won MVP of the International League. He was so good at AAA that he should have gotten called up. If it was a contender who needed another bad, I'm sure he would have been called up. But the Orioles are playing the service time game.

I suspect he'll be up by May. It's not like they don't have places they could put him. Part of the problem has been finding out a place to put him because he's pretty bad defensively, but he's capable of playing all four corner spots, in field and outfield. And yeah, I'm sure he'll be up. A pretty good hitter.

Not a good on-base guy. It doesn't walk a lot, but neither does Nick Castianas. The comparison applies in that regard as well. Ryan Mountcastle for the Orioles. So Ian Hap, Louis, well, not really Louis Brinson, but Ian Hap, Josh James, Ryan Mountcastle, Chris Davis, players to keep an eye on here.

as spring training risers. But it's early, and we'll keep checking in on it. Email of the day, do I want to get into this? I think we can answer it pretty quickly. Okay. Jeff from Cedar Rapids, Iowa. For the life of me,

I can't figure out how to view shortstop and third base. I understand the sentiment of looking for the best player, and there is a part of me that says to be the best player at a loaded position like shortstop and third base means that what you bring is truly special. There's another part of me that says, because third base and shortstop are so deep, I can find someone at another position

who can bring to the table what a Francisco Lindor or a Nolan Aeronado can, and then I can fill in those two deeper positions with later talent that is far superior than the talent taken at other positions. Which is the correct view to take? Yes. It's not positional scarcity.

It's statistical scarcity. We don't even know this is a Roto League. What? We don't even know if this is a Roto League. Right. That's right. Sure. Sure. But it's even more obvious in a points league because you just draft the best player. You want the most points. And yeah, roster construction plays into it. And you know, you might reach a point where I found myself in head-to-head mock drafts this year where I would really like to draft Corey Seeger, but I just don't have a spot for him at that point in the draft. You run into that issue. But at this point, as Scott has said many, many, many, many, many, many times. There's enough hitting. You don't really need to worry about the positions.

If I could add something to that, I would say that it also... The argument, it seems like Jeff is making here, something we've made for catcher. Adam, we were talking about it just yesterday during the mock draft with B. Don of Rasball, how it makes sense... to pay up for like J.T. Realmuto

in a shallower league, and a shallower one catcher leave because it gives you an advantage at, it gives you such a clear advantage at the position. And that's a case where it makes sense to pay up for the highest-int guy. And that might be true at a deep position as well in some certain cases.

But it's not always, it's not always clear that the number one guy ranked at the position is that far ahead of the number eight guy at the position. You know, it just depends on just because somebody happens to have that number one next to his name, you don't need to, like, you can't assume that it's going to be that much better than what the rest of your league has. You have to look at what the actual players are, what they provide. And I've made the determination that Francisco Lendor isn't that much. of an upgrade over Marcus Simeon. Now, certainly in terms of security.

Yeah, he is. I mean, other people could make a case otherwise. If they don't have the same comfort level with Marcus Simeon as I do, I get that. But I've decided that it's close enough that I'm happy to pass up Marcus Simeon there. Now, as Chris was saying, if you're talking about specifically a Categories League, Roto League, then you have to factor in skill scarcity. And obviously, the guys who steal bases and the guys, who don't, it makes a difference there.

But if you're talking about just overall production, like at a points league context, yeah, I don't, I don't think this year it makes sense to pay up at shortstop. And third base, third base, it might more, actually. Up to a point I think it might at third base.

I think the top four at third base have an advantage over the rest. But beyond that, if you're talking about Raphael Devers versus Who's number four? A. E. E. E. E. Hennino Suarez. Jose Ramirez. Ah.

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$10 off your first Seatgeek purchase. Sleepers, here we go. It's time. All right, we have given you so far. Mark Kana from Scott, Mitch Keller, from Chris, Chris Davis from Adam. Chris, I'll give you two fun sleepers. Two fun sleepers. I'll stick with starting pitcher.

And I will go first off with Corbyn Burns, who you may remember as the worst pitcher in baseball in 2019. He was an absolute disaster. Corbyn Burns is going to be a star. Mark it down. And I know Scott has Corbyn Burns in his sleeper column as well, I believe. I do not actually.

Well, you should. I did write about him in one of my spring training notebook pieces. He has a 94 mile an hour slider. His slider was his best pitch last season. He threw it, like out on average about 88 miles per hour, which is really hard for a slider.

But now he's been messing around. He's tightened up that slider. It's going to be 92 to 94 this year. That's the Jacob de Grom range. And look, his fastball got crushed last season. There was probably some bad luck there. He's got really good stuff. He throws really hard.

I think there's sky high upside here. I think there's similar upside to someone like Mitch Keller, someone like Josh James. I'm not 100% sure if Corbyn Burns is going to have a rotation spot. but he has an ADP of 542nd, so I'll take a chance. And you know what? Even if he doesn't make the rotation, if you're in a roto league, you know, he had a 261.

Back in 2018, he had a 261 ERA. So maybe he could just be a really high strikeout pitcher in the bullpen and give you some good ratios as well. Corbyn Burns. I just, I worry about guys who were great in the bullpen. Being great in the bullpen does not mean you can be good in the rotation. You've got to have the arsenal. for it. And I'm not sure

he does, and I'm not sure Adrian Houser does either, which is what scares me a little bit. I mean, I think back to Daniel Bard. I remember him being the spark of the year, you know, back in the day. And Burns was obviously terrible going into the rotation. It's not that easy of an

adjustment. It's all I'm saying. But I guess, no, it's not. But there was a lot of, he didn't pitch well, but there was some bad luck there as well, like we talked about with with Mitch Keller and he's got a deep-ish

arsenal. He's got a change-up, a curve, a slider, and a foreseamer. He doesn't, he didn't throw the changeup all that much last season, but there were decent results from it. He got a lot of swings and misses with his slider, curveball, and change-up. Now, you know, some of those pitches got hit really, really hard. His curveball had an 836 Wobo, which is

about double what a bad Wobah allowed would be. So he's got some work to do, but the raw stuff is really, really good. Sure. And he's free. And Hauser has, at least according to the numbers, pretty good arsenal. That was Corbyn Burns, Chris was talking about.

Howser throws a fastball, throws a sinker, slider, curveball, very rare change-up. Okay, give me another sleeper, Chris. You said you had two fun ones. I asked you for two fun ones. You didn't say it yourself. Yeah, I'll go with, I'll go with a hitter. And it's Luis Erius, who I just love.

I talk about him all the time. I think there is above average contact skills with burgeoning power. He's a little dude 5'9. So you might not think it, but what we've seen in the, it's in the PCL. So, you know, the standard caveats apply, except that Major League Baseball plays like the PCL now.

And I just think with his, it's something Scott has talked about a lot in the last couple of years. If you've got a guy who's got good contact skills and they get to the majors and they can keep those contact skills, there's the potential for power. And in EREAS's case, there's the potential for speed, especially, you know, he's going to be playing in Miller Park in a great lineup. There's a lot of opportunity there. And it does still sound like he's the everyday shortstop as soon as he's healthy. I know Orlando R.C. is having a good spring. But from everything that I've seen, it's a Reyes' job once he's healthy. Scott, you're on the clock with two sleepers.

Fun sleepers. Fun sleepers. So does fun mean kind of deep? Fun doesn't mean not mean anything. It just means having fun. Whatever you want to do. It means a lot to me. Now, I feel like this guy needs.

to be back on sleeper lists, but we're talking like a five outfield context and maybe even a 15-team context. But that's Clint Frazier with all the injuries to the Yankees outfield. And there is a lot of buzz around Clint Frazier and Yankees camp. Of course, former, I think number five overall pick,

top prospect in the Indians organization, got traded to the Yankees, was the top prospect there, but just hasn't really been able to take that next step hasn't really had the power production that people see in his bat speed, see, thinks should be there given his bat speed. But he introduced a new timing mechanism,

kind of turns his front foot in as far as he can, and he seems to be really comfortable with it. I think last I checked he hasn't struck out at all this spring, and the Yankees just say the way the ball's flying off the bat and the way Frazier's carrying himself this year, they're starting to get excited about him all over again. And obviously with two big outfielders out for the Yankees, there's an opportunity for him.

Now, it's interesting because there are a lot of sleepers for the Yankees, as far as I'm concerned. Luke Voight, to an extent we could call a sleeper, Miguel Andahar, who's been playing a lot of left field this spring. I thought he'd be mostly first base, but it's actually been a lot of left field. There's the potential for all of these guys to cannibalize each. other and maybe none of them end up being that useful in fantasy.

But Frazier, add him to the mix is another exciting piece there. Mike Ford, who I haven't mentioned, I think in terms of statistics, the kind of things we normally talk about when we're hyping sleepers, Mike Ford is the most impressive of all. But he's limited to first base, and I'm not sure there's really going to be a chance for him there. But these are all players I'm targeting late in those deeper rotisserie leagues. Boy, somebody loves the Yankees. Ridiculous.

I know. How do you feel about this guy? Homerism? I think Ann Duhar is the most interesting to me. Because Frazier probably needs... Look, they could go with Gardner and Center, Judge and Wright, Stanton at DH, and get Tockeman out of the lineup and go with Frasier.

Right? Talkman's pretty good, too. Talkman, yeah, and he's a good defender. I'm not sure about the hitting of the hitting seem like. It was a little lucky last year, but maybe he's getting better. But he's probably their best defensive outfielder. So my guess is they're going to want to keep him in the lineup since they have enough offense.

But the Yankees are an extremely injury-prone team, it seems. And Frazier's not going to draft him, but certainly he's the guy that I run into my waiver wire to get. Well, I might draft him if when we find out the timetables, I guess, for Stanton and Judge. But right now it doesn't seem like they're going to be out for that long. I think just I like And Dohar a little bit better because he can play around the infield as well. Yeah, six walks, no strikeouts for Clint Frazier so far this spring.

That's probably meaningless, but I still think it's noteworthy. And he could, they never want to trade him, but maybe he'll get some value back, and maybe they will trade him. Maybe they need a pitcher with the Severino injury. So Scott said Clint Frazier. He said a lot of guys, but officially it was Clint Frazier. Give me a sleeper that a lot of people are going to draft. Okay. Let's say Alex Wood. There you go.

Alex Wood I got in round 20 at Tau Wars draft last night. I mentioned my top five pitchers. He's number six for me. Not sure the workload's going to be there for him to be truly high end. I'm not sure there's a great chance of that. But I think the ratios could be impressive. And I think for the stretches he's in the rotation, obviously with the Dodgers support and castbacking him, there's a lot of wind. potential there. So he should be useful at times this year. It sounds like he already has the fifth starter job locked up at least until the Dodgers want to cycle through somebody else as they're known to do. He said he wouldn't have signed with the Dodgers if he wasn't given those assurances. So Alex Wood is convinced he's in. He spent the offseason, or a big part of it anyway, at driveline baseball. And doing some of their training registrar. and and, you know, working on his mechanics, got his velocity back up is the point.

He's throwing closer to like 93 now than the low 90s where he usually is low 90s, high 80s. And the last time he was throwing that hard was the first half of 2017 when he went, I think it was 12 and 0 with like a 175 DRA and a ton of strikeouts. Really exciting stuff. So he hasn't shown much the little he's pitched so far this spring, but I'm not letting it dampen my enthusiasm. There's a lot to like about Alex Wood, especially in a range of starting pitchers where none of them are particularly bankable anyway.

Okay, so you mentioned driveline baseball. I just want to read an email that we got. It's from, oh, crap, I don't have a name here. I'll get the name. Dear Luis, Sonny, and Trevor. Reds. Pitchers, yes. I feel like isn't getting talked about much or at all when it comes to the Reds hiring the guy who founded Drive Line Baseball as their pitching coordinator.

Do you feel as if this could have an effect on their pitching and they will have an Astros slash raised type of effect when it comes to getting the most out of their pitchers? Well, Trevor Bauer is like Drive Line Baseball's poster child, right? I believe he's their mascot. Yeah. Yeah. So he's, I mean, I'm sure having greater over. oversight could help him, but they've already done a lot with him. And the Reds have already done a lot to fix Sunny Gray.

I'm not sure, on the high end, I'm not sure there's much room for those guys to improve. But I think where we could see an impact is maybe on some of those fringier types. Maybe somebody like Anthony Descliffeani, maybe a Tyler Malley. Yeah, and then they, you know, Drive-Line specifically seems to specialize in increasing velocity, which would help anyone, although, you know, with someone like Luis Castillo, it doesn't necessarily seem like there's that much that he could gain. He's already one of the hardest throwing starters in baseball. But, you know, they also specialize in, like, pitch development. They use the high-speed cameras and the spin-rate machines and all those fancy. gizmos and and that's something that Trevor

Bowers talked a lot about that you know when he's working on pitches you know that's where he does it and so you know with someone like Luis Castillo if he could get that slider to take a little bit of a step forward that wouldn't be insignificant oh it'd be huge yeah it'd be great I think that's kind of he reminds me a little bit of Severino you know where Severino added a third pitch and became like

awesome. Yeah, he's kind of the opposite of Severino or the opposite of like Michael Paneda. Yeah, where they had the great slider and added a change up. He had the great change up. It needs to add that slider. Yes, in that sense, yes. Which seems like the easier thing to do. You would think so. The guy's name is Kyle

Body. He is the driveline founder. He's not their pitching coach. He's their pitching coordinator. And Andy Wilson is the person who sent in the email. So thank you for the email. So far, you've heard about Mark Kana, Luis Ria, let's see, Mark Kana, who was the guy that,

Mitch Keller, Luis Rias, Corbin Burns, Clint Fraser, Alex Wood. Let's get a couple more. Chris, give me another sleeper. Well, I guess I should pull up my actual sleeper's column and go through that.

And while you do that, I want to clarify something, sorry. I said that Miguel And Duhar was my favorite sleeper of all those Yankees that Scott mentioned, I think you also mentioned Luke Voight,

and he is all of our, he would be that. highest ranked of all those guys, obviously. But Void is kind of forgotten. Before his IL stint, he had high 800s. It was like an LPS. Close to 900. Yeah.

So he's not going to give you a good batting average, but he walks and he homers and he plays in a little league park. Okay, sorry, go ahead, Chris. Yeah, Void is actually on my sleepers list. He was hitting 283-992-493 before the hernia in late July. That would be really, really good. It was a little less power than we thought, but. It was a 30 homer season pace with nearly 200 combined runs in RBI.

He's, I think he's quite good. I'll go with someone who's going around top 100, and that's Cory Klooper, because I don't play by your traditional rules when it comes to sleepers. I think anybody can be a sleeper. I think the number one pick can be a sleeper. That's how I play. And basically, number two could be. Mike Trout at number two is a sleeper.

Yeah, yeah, not number one. Maybe. So anyway, Corey Kluber is, I think, being really, really discounted. It actually seems like his ADP has continued to slide when I wrote my sleeper's column a couple weeks ago. It was like 90th overall. I think it's gone down from there even. And I don't know. It's possible that the one month we saw last year just represented the end of Cory Kluber's career.

But... I keep trying to tell you. It was more than that. It was the end of the 2018 season. season two. It wasn't, though. Like that was, he had a mid-3s-R-A.

Sure. And I guess if he gives you a mid-to-high-high-3-ZRA where he's going now, sure. That's a huge value. If he's still going, if he's still like a workhorse, yeah. Right.

But, and the thing I keep coming back to is he had a 506 ERA with 13 walks in, uh, in his first, I think, six starts in 2017. went on the IL with a back injury, came back, and was so good for the rest of the season

that he won his second Siyang. Now, there's no way of knowing if that's what would have happened last season. It's an unknowable conundrum. He might have come back from that injury and just continued to be bad, in which case it would definitely make sense to write him off.

But I am not willing to write off someone with his track record of success, being an elite, elite pitcher. He was in that conversation for what we consider the big four at this time last year. I'm not ready to write him off because he had 35 and two-thirds bad innings. Scott inspired me to call Marcel O'Suna a sleeper.

93rd overall doesn't feel very sleepery, but in the drafts we did yesterday, he went so late in the three outfield or points league. Scott had laid it out that the expected stats for Marcelloz Marcelo Zuna were much better than what actually, yeah. And he's been an elite hitter before. He's been an elite hitter not just once, but for half a season before playing through an injury, I don't remember the year, 2016, 17, whatever it was.

He was awesome. So I like Marcelo Zuna. I don't know, I mean, top 100 pick is fine, but if you can get him more like 120 or something like that, and I think that's realistic, certainly. I like Ozuna. Scott, one more sleeper. Well, I guess it'd be a problem if I didn't mention Gio Orchella, considering he's

probably one I'm drafting most often. What is with you? Do you want to trade teeth? I mentioned a brave? You mentioned a Yankee. He is probably my number one most favorite Yankee sleeper because I trust the playing time the most with him.

Miguel Andohar, I think it made at least one appearance at third base this spring, but he was terrible. There as a rookie two years ago when he was before the shoulder trouble and Gio Orshella is at least average there. Some people claim he's above average atom is among them. The metrics say he's closer to average, but whatever. It's still a big improvement over Andouhar. And if the gains at the plate are legit that Urchella showed last year,

then it's at least even there in terms of offensive production. And I might still put Urshella a little ahead of Andhu Har. I think they are legit. He made a big change to his swing. He wasn't really using his lower body. He was basically just, it was basically just a slap hitter before last year and figured out how to drive the ball.

And he did so in a way that didn't compromise his ability to make contact, still makes a ton of contact. Very safe source of batting average. If the power is there, and he is batting, you know, fifth, sixth in a lineup loaded with high-on-base guys at the top. he's going to be a good source of batting average

he's going to be a good source of RBI he'll at least maintain and home runs for you and you can get him very late round 15 and beyond I've made him my starting third basement on occasion he's my starting third basement on my Tau Wars team I got him in round

14 that's a 15 team league obviously but I'm I'm comfortable doing that with Gio Orchella okay Gio Orchella before he went on the IL with the groin he had a great season regardless but before going on the IL with a groin injury. It was 114 games.

He had a 924 OPS. 331, batting average, 370 on base, 555 slugging percentage. Struggled a little bit after coming off. I struggled a lot after coming off the IL and that sunk his numbers. But he was doing very well before a groin injury.

So a lot of names for you there. Oscar Mercado, last name, Oscar Mercado. And... Can I just throw some names out there? No, not Oscar Mercado. I'm sorry. Hold on. What's the guy? Who's the guy I love that's on the Rangers now

that I'm calling Oscar Mercado for some reason? No, Omar Mazzara. Mazara. No Mar Mzara. Yeah, no Mar Mzara. He's not on the Rangers. He's on the White Sox. He's on the White Sox. God, Aezer, shut up. Let the experts speak. Nomar Mazzar is my guy. I was looking at ADP and I saw Oscar Mercado

and it just threw my whole game off. Okay, Scott, go ahead. Run through some sleepers. Okay, Adrian Hazer, who we've talked about before. Dylan Bundy, I think, is a good lottery ticket at starting pitcher. Talked before how I'd like to stash away Domingo Hermon and especially Michael Paneda for when they come back from their suspensions, Paneda should be about a month sooner. In the outfield, if Sam Hilliard is even just the better half of the platoon for the Rockies, he's a guy who had 42 home runs and 24 steals between the majors and minors last year.

So he could be impactful and give you some steals late too. Mike Yistrimski. I'm hopeful for more bats from him. Dylan Carlson has been a prospect making waves this spring. Both him and Tyler O'Neill, I think, will get significant time in the Cardinals outfield this year. O'Neill I made, I think it was my 25th round pick in the Tout Wars draft. Carter Qibum, who isn't off to a good start this spring, but he's the favor for the National's third base job. Also eligible at shortstop, big prospect. I drafted him in Tout Wars.

Alec Baum seems like a good draft and stash for the Phillies, having a great spring, good on-base guy, good bat skills overall. I could see him taking over in the first third of the year at third base there. Evan White, another cheap first-base option, Nate Lowe, if he breaks through for the raise. Nick Solac mentioned him, good-on-base guy. He's DH only right now, but he could play second-base, third-base outfield. could end up being eligible at a few positions, and he could end up being a decent contributor in both home runs and stolen bases. Nick Bat, Madrigal, he may not win the job in spring training, but he'll eventually be the White Sox second baseman this year and should be

a decent source of steals. And Tom Murphy, big power hitting catcher, who should be the primary option for the Mariners now. Magical. There are some team names, I feel like, magical. What was the lucky charms? Were they magic? Magical and delicious? Magically delicious. Magically delicious. Magically, yeah, not quite. I always think, I was watching the draft coverage when the White Sox took Madrigal a couple years ago.

And I always think of Harold Reynolds saying Madrigal is magical and just that he was able to get it out without stumbling. I thought it was pretty good. Madrigal gals and guys. That perfect. You nailed it, Chris. And we're going to end it on that. Thanks for listening, everybody. Those are some really good sleepers.

Appreciate it, guys. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with some breakouts and probably some auction talk. If not tomorrow, then on Friday for sure. Until then, I'm Adam for Christmas. Bye.