Fantasy Baseball Today - Snake Drafts vs. Auction (Salary Cap) Strategy! Favorite Pick, Bidding & More! (2/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 28, 2024

Shohei Ohtani looked like Shohei Ohtani in his Dodgers debut (2:20)! ... Snake drafts vs. auctions (4:55). ... How to utilize ADP in snake drafts (8:45). ... What are some snake draft pro tips (15:30)...? ... What is our favorite pick in snake drafts this year (21:50)? ... Let's get an update on our TGFBI drafts (26:00). ... News (35:34): Walker Buehler threw his first live BP. ... Which players stood out in Tuesday's spring training games (37:05)? ... Let's talk auction/salary cap strategy (42:58). ... Is a stars and scrubs strategy viable (51:02)? ... How do we usually nominate players (55:28)? ... We wrap up with our bidding strategies (58:55). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. We're fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Strategy Week continues. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, February 28th.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we're talking snake drafts and auction slash salary cap strategy. and we have some updates on each of our great fantasy baseball invitational drafts. That's the TGFBI. But first, I want to start the show with a spring training overreaction. Are you ready, Scott?
Starting point is 00:00:54 I am. All right, here it is. Shohay Otani will hit like Shohayotani this season. That's it. That's the overreaction. First game with the Dodgers and he smokes a home run to the opposite field. It's just in such showhayotani fashion, right?
Starting point is 00:01:10 Yeah, and it looked like a pop-up off the bat. You know, like the way he reacted to it, it's like he didn't get it all, and the angle was so high, but it went out to the opposite field. And, I mean, the fact that he hit it so high, I think is a good sign. We were talking earlier this week about how Bryce Harper,
Starting point is 00:01:32 coming off his elbow issue, had trouble elevating the ball at first. Otani clearly elevated that one. His batting practice sessions have looked great. Yep. This is what we wanted to see, right, in spring training. We wanted to see him pop a few homers. This is homer number one.
Starting point is 00:01:47 But everything we've seen so far, I think, is cause for relief, caused to ease concerns you may have about his effectiveness coming off that elbow procedure. It doesn't change that he's DH only. And that makes for a difficult build using such an early pick on that spot. But he should be super productive. That's my leaning. I mean, I guess that was everybody's leaning all along, right? There's a reason why he's a first rounder or early second rounder at worst. Yeah, it's just so interesting that the ADP is typically late first, early second round.
Starting point is 00:02:24 I get that he's coming back from the elbow surgery. Last year, Shohei Otani finished as the seventh overall player, and that was in just 135 games. He was actually the best hitter version of Otani we have ever seen last year. So it could take some time. Again, I'm being a little bit facetious, you know, overreacting to one game, but it would not surprise me at all if Otani performs like a top five player this year, especially in that lineup, the counting stats, power speed, all that kind of crazy stuff.
Starting point is 00:02:53 And like I said on the podcast earlier this week, I like the fact that he's not pitching this year. He could just focus on hitting. And some of that injury risk that you get in a year when he's pitching, you know, it's kind of double the risk. anything can happen with your arm, obviously, that'll probably stop him from being a hitter. We don't have to worry about that this year. So I kind of like that effect.
Starting point is 00:03:14 It hasn't stopped him from being a hitter in the past. But yes, I get what you mean. Yeah, all right. So that's my reaction. Let's talk about some snake draft strategies, Scott. And the biggest difference between a snake draft, which I think most people listening play in, and an auction is that you are restricted
Starting point is 00:03:30 based on where you're drafting in the first round. We'll talk about auctions later on, but in that format, you can get any player you desire. It does not matter. If you want Ronald de Cunia and Shohei Otani and Fernando Tatis, you can do it. You're going to have some really bad players
Starting point is 00:03:47 at the end of your roster. But if you want to do that, you can in that format. In a snake draft, you can't do that. You know, maybe you really want Mookie Betts or Kyle Tucker. If you have the 11th or 12th pick, guess what? You're probably not getting either of those players.
Starting point is 00:03:59 So I actually prefer to play in auction, Scott, salary caps, as also known as, again, where you can get whatever player your desire, kind of form whatever kind of strategy you want in that format. Which do you prefer? Snake dress versus auction salary cap. Oh, there's nothing like a good auction. I agree.
Starting point is 00:04:19 There's nothing. I agree. The idea that you can get whoever you want, well, technically true, it's true for everybody. And I've noticed that everybody tends to want the same players. Like the players you are, obsessing over day and night are generally the same players other people are obsessing over day or night,
Starting point is 00:04:40 day and night. And certainly, me being in the role I am, people here who I obsess about day or night. So it tends to rub off on people. I don't know. Maybe it's maybe that specific problem is more specific to me or people like me. I don't know. But putting that aside, even if you're leaving out the idea that you can get whoever you want an auction. The experience of going through it is just an absolute thrill ride. A white-knuckle experience
Starting point is 00:05:16 where you are going to have extreme highs and extreme lows and emotion inevitably, inevitably, and it's just a great way to spend four-plus hours. It really is. So that would be my preference. It's not always practical because it takes four plus hours and it's four plus hours of everybody's undivided attention.
Starting point is 00:05:41 So it's not something busy people with busy lives can always make work. But if you can make it work, I think it's worth it. I think it's the better way to go about it. And yeah, hopefully, hopefully you end up getting all the players you want to. Especially if you can manage to do an auction in person with everybody together, which I realize is even harder to accomplish, but I mean, it is amazing.
Starting point is 00:06:14 And I've got an auction coming up this weekend and I'll only labor. I'm going to be in a room with 11 other people that are also doing that same draft. And it's just the emotion, the psychology and staring people down that you're bidding against. It's really, really fun. So I would highly recommend doing that if you can. And actually next Tuesday night right here live on YouTube, we're going to be going to be doing a live auction.
Starting point is 00:06:36 And you'll get to see us all together, kind of, I guess, getting crazy and strategizing. I just made that word up. And since we started doing that auction live, this is Memorial Magazine League we're talking about, a 12-team Roto League. Since we started doing that auction live, and I've had to divide my attention between my plan,
Starting point is 00:06:58 entertaining all of you. It hasn't gone as well, Frank. It's tough, man. It hasn't gone as well. Gosh, imagine me trying to host this thing. And, oh, gosh, it's going to be fun. So again, you can check that out next week. Let's get back into snake drafts.
Starting point is 00:07:14 So, Scott, and I think what you need to focus on most here with this format is how to utilize ADP, right? Average draft position. And ADP is a tool. It's not perfect. And it shouldn't be treated that way. but it's a reference point and it's something that can help us
Starting point is 00:07:30 throughout our drafts. Knowing ADP, I think it allows you to maximize your team's profit potential, right? So, for example, if you love a player like, I'll just give you a mid-round player, Zander Bogartz, right? Knowing that his ADP is 97.2 around Pick 100, that means
Starting point is 00:07:46 you don't have to take him in the fourth or fifth round, right? If you really want him, you kind of have an idea of where he's going to go, okay, I can take him in the seventh or eighth round just based on his ADP. Now on the other side of that, it can be a bit of a slippery slope because remember, ADP is exactly that. It's an average, right?
Starting point is 00:08:04 And there are players, there are hype guys every year that they start to climb up draft boards, right? Someone like, you know, Royce Lewis has an ADP around 65. If someone really likes Royce Lewis, they can pull up up the board by a round or two, right? So how do you balance something like that, Scott? How do you utilize ADP in a snake draft setting? Well, me specifically, I bake ADP into my rankings so that, not that my rankings are ADP, but like I did with Cole Reagan's at some point this offseason. I originally had him as my number 11 pitcher. I saw ADP had him around 25th, maybe even 30th at starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:08:50 So I said, okay, ranking him 11th at starting pitcher is going to. caused me to reach for him much earlier than I need him. I still want him, so I'm going to rank him higher than ADP, but I don't need to rank him that much higher than ADP. So I make adjustments within my rankings to better correlate with ADP. And that way, I don't even have to consult ADP when I'm drafting. I can just go off my ranking, specifically my tiers. And ADP is already factored in. Now, that's for the average draft, probably the sort of draft, the average sort of approach the average listener should take with their draft. I have noticed, though, just in the last year or two, in those NFBC drafts, which I know I'm talking to
Starting point is 00:09:39 a small percentage of the audience, but those high stakes NFBC drafts, I noticed they tend to follow ADP much, much closer, specifically, on the NFBC site, you can adjust ADP to a certain time period. If you look at just the last week of ADP, so all the latest adjustments for those hype players you were talking about, they follow it very closely.
Starting point is 00:10:05 So for those drafts, I've actually picked out where I'm, looked at where I'm picking. So, you know, let's say I'm picking first overall. My first pick's obviously going to be wrong to Koonia number one. But picks two and three. are going to be 30 and 31, picks 3 and 4, 60 and 61,
Starting point is 00:10:24 picks 5 and 6, 90 and 91. And I look at ADP, and the players going within a 10-pick range of that. And I jot down ahead of time who I can reasonably expect to take. Like four to six players I can reasonably expect to take with each of those picks. But I have an idea realistically what my team can look like, and that helps me, it helps me decide. who to prioritize when because I see what my options are
Starting point is 00:10:53 at that position or among the players I like later in the draft. And of course, that is a lot easier to do in a slow draft which is what we're currently doing right now. Right, but even if the fast draft, I do it beforehand. Yeah, yeah. So, and a good point with that, Scott, is every website, every draft room is different, right?
Starting point is 00:11:10 Depending on if you play on CBS or NFBC, ESPN Yahoo, wherever you play. I would say, before your draft, go into the draft room, study the ranking, see what the ADP is like, and come up with a, I guess, a general plan, like a loose plan. I guess have like targets and ideas of, okay, what rounds can I expect to take some of these? You don't want to be too rigid because obviously things are going to change
Starting point is 00:11:35 and your players are going to get taken. And so you don't want to be too strict to that. And then it kind of just throws off your entire draft. But wherever you play, go into that draft room beforehand and take a look and just get an idea for a feel of the draft room. and ADP and rankings and the way things look in there as well. One other thing I would say about ADP, Scott, is the deeper you go into a snake draft,
Starting point is 00:11:59 the less ADP matters. For example, Jackson Turo's ADP on fantasy pros is 152, but I've seen drafts where he goes top 100, sometimes because of you. You really like Jackson Trio. I'm often the one taking him there, yes. But I think it gets more unpredictable the later you go, right? And especially with like starting pitchers, right?
Starting point is 00:12:19 Anyone going outside the top 200 or 250, I mean, they can go 50 picks higher. They can go 50 picks later. So again, like, the further you go into a draft, you're less beholden to ADP, I would say. And again, that plan I laid out where you ahead of time go through and pick out who you can reasonably expect to take it with each of your picks by ADP, that's more for just NFBC high stakes leagues where people follow it that closely. your home league, people are probably not going to pay that much intention to ADP. So the hype guys, if you are all in on a hype guy, you're probably the one who needs to, you need to go more by your own ranking of him, probably than ADP, like a Jackson Chorio. In most of our leagues we do for CBS, because there's not a strict adherence to ADP in those leagues.
Starting point is 00:13:13 Jackson Chorio tends to go within the top 100 picks, even when I don't tell. take them. So, yeah, I would say in most cases, in most leagues, especially home leagues, ADP is more of a reference than a template. And you should value your own impression of a player over ADP, but use ADP as a guide for how long you could realistically wait. It's a judgment. call, obviously, because you have to weigh the prospect of losing him to against not wanting to overpay for him. And one other tip I would recommend in a snake draft is if you are drafting anywhere near the ends, right, if you have a top three pick or even a top four pick or, you know, pick nine through 12, whatever it might be, use the teams drafting after you on the ends
Starting point is 00:14:14 as a way to decide some of your picks, right? Let's just say you're debating between an outfielder and a starting pitcher. And you look, you're picking 10th in your draft. You look at Team 11 and 12. You notice, okay, they're already loaded with outfielders. I can take the starting pitcher I want and not that it means the outfielder will definitely come back,
Starting point is 00:14:37 but it gives you a little bit more of an idea, okay, will this player come back to me? And you can use that for different positions. You know, if the players, the teams after you have, a catcher and you want a catcher. You can say, all right, I could maybe afford to wait until the next turn here because I know the team's after me have a catcher.
Starting point is 00:14:51 And so, you know, that involves doing a little bit more handiwork within the draft and it could become a little bit stressful, Scott. But it's something that I have used to my advantage before as well. I've used it to my advantage before, too. I think it's worth doing when you're picking close to the end.
Starting point is 00:15:09 It is always amusing when you do that. say, okay, the next two guys have filled their outfielder, so I can pass on the outfielder for now because I know he'll get back to me. And then he doesn't. They take the outfielder anyway for their bencher. That happens sometimes. It does. So you can't, you can't be totally sure. It's going to go according to plan when you do that. But it is, it is worth considering at least. Let me also say, because I think this is probably my biggest point regarding snake drafts and long-time listeners, it won't be anything new for them. But I mean, the main piece of advice I could offer beyond ADP is to print out my tiers, my position by position tiers. Because that, I think, gives you the perfect blueprint to follow in a draft.
Starting point is 00:16:02 And you can adjust them to your own preference. I have no problem with that. I don't, I don't, I'm a big believer and I don't know actually that much. So if you have a, if you have a strong disagreement with me about a player and want to put them in a different tier, totally fine. But the idea is, if you wait until, the idea is if you're crossing the names off as the draft is going, then it'll become clear to you, what position you should target when your pick comes up. because the pick whose active tier is closest to depletion is the one that's about to see a big drop off in projected output. And so that's the one to target.
Starting point is 00:16:44 If the active tier at one position has six names there still and at another position it has two, you take the position where there are two names. Of course, that's harder to say, if you're picking at the end and you have to wait a long time between picks, you can't follow the tiers as strictly. but if you're picking in the middle, which is generally where I prefer to pick,
Starting point is 00:17:03 obviously this year, you have the choice you're taking to Kuna number one, but generally speaking, I prefer to pick in the middle. And that's because I think the tiers approach is more reliable. And I've always found that to be the most successful approach, particularly in shallower leagues. The deeper the leagues get,
Starting point is 00:17:22 I think the less important it is, because you're always going to have weak spots, but in shallower leagues where you really have to be, you really have to maximize your output at every position. You're going to want to follow the tiers approach, I would say. Tiers 2.0 is up on the site right now. There will be a tiers 3.0, and eventually there will be a tiers 4.0
Starting point is 00:17:41 where it's just a nice, neat sheet like this that you can print out. Very nice. Until then, you'll have to make the sheet yourself because they like to split each position into its own column. Yeah, anyway. No, I think it's a good piece of advice, and it's something, I've done something similar in the past for drafts where I will convert my rankings into an Excel sheet
Starting point is 00:18:04 where I can see every position and I'll just delete the names as they go and you could just see which position is getting depleted sooner and obviously you just react and it's very similar to what you just said with your tears. Let's take our first break when we return. What is our favorite pick this year? Obviously first overall. What about outside of first overall? We'll talk about that right after.
Starting point is 00:18:26 this. Welcome back in. What is our favorite pick in draft this year, assuming a 12-team league? Well, first overall pick. We all want to Ronald Acuna. We'll figure the rest out after that. Scott, which pick are you most excited to get this year? And does it change depending on format? It might change depending on format. I have to say in a roto league, or any kind of categories league, I would say, any kind of five-by-five categories league. I want a top four pick. like if I can't get Acuna at number one I want Bobby Wood at number two and then I want Julio Rodriguez at number three
Starting point is 00:19:03 and then I want Corby and Carroll at number four and I know we don't all agree about Corbyn Carroll at number four but I think those four players is a caliber of rhodo player that we've never really seen before you have to go back to the years of like Eric Davis and early Barry Bonds when he was stealing a ton of bases
Starting point is 00:19:24 to find players who can hit like this and also put up a ridiculous number of stolen bases. We have seen obviously these odd 40-40 years in the past, but as they were happening, it was like, okay, this player is clearly pushing for 40-40, clearly pushing to get those 40 stolen bases so that he can have this milestone on his record. And it wasn't like the next year
Starting point is 00:19:48 we were predicting them to go 40-40 again. Because of the changes to the stolen base environment, the rules implemented to encourage more stolen base, bases last year. We can expect this to continue for these players. I mean, Ronald de Cunia, 40 home runs and 70 steals, right? Nobody had ever done that before. He became the third player to have 30 homers and 50 steals in a season.
Starting point is 00:20:15 And then same year, Bobby Witt almost became the fourth. He was just one home run shy, right? It wasn't one stolen base. One stolen base, yeah. One stolen base shy. And then also, Corby and Carroll, this doesn't get mentioned. His 25 homers and 50 steals.
Starting point is 00:20:32 That was only the second time a player has done that in a season since Barry Bonds in 1990. So that was equally historic to what Ronald O'Cunia, well, nothing equals Ronald de Cunia, but Ronald O'Cunia obviously setting the new standard for that, and Bobby Witt almost doing that very historic thing. So yeah, like getting one of those guys at that, top of your draft is such an advantage in roto leagues this year that I think it's a must. And you worry about the rest of the rounds as they happen. In a point scoring league, those guys aren't even two, three, and four for me.
Starting point is 00:21:10 In fact, Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez are more like the end of round one because of their plate discipline issues. So it's not as important where I pick other than Ronald de Kuni at number one in a points league. As for what's my favorite in that format, I might opt more. toward the end of round one because you can get two first round caliber bats that way. But I'm not sure, I'm not sure there's any point in the draft that I'm, I'm that disappointed to get this year.
Starting point is 00:21:41 Because the amount of, the quality at the top of the draft is so high compared to some years. I agree completely in category leagues trying to get a top three pick. For the reasons you mentioned, for me, it's top three because I do have a little bit more concern, over Corby and Carroll and his past troubles with the shoulder. But yeah, top three would be happy with that.
Starting point is 00:22:03 And a points league, I kind of like the midpicks. If I can get, you know, five, six, seven, and get one of Judge, Betts, Soto, Freeman, any of those guys, I'd be ecstatic to do that. And then, you know, you're at a point in the second round where you still wind up getting a really, really good hitter, whether it's a Raphael Devers and Austin Riley or a Pete Alonzo, Francisco Lund, or someone like that. So I'm totally fine getting players like that. I don't really think there's a bad point in the draft,
Starting point is 00:22:33 but I probably would prefer to be, I think in the top half is what I've liked more so far this season. While we're talking about Snake Drafts, Scott, let's provide a quick update on our TGFBI drafts, which is a collection of 15-team Roto Industry Leagues. We spoke about them a little bit yesterday, where most of us had two or three picks done at that point. we're competing in individual leagues.
Starting point is 00:22:56 There's an overall prize. Shout out to Justin Mason. He puts us on every year. And you'll be hearing about it on other podcasts, this podcast, and you'll be seeing it all over Twitter, X, all that kind of fun stuff. Scott is picking first.
Starting point is 00:23:08 I am picking 14th. What do we up to, Scott? How's the team look? So I've made seven picks, and it's been a ride, Frank. It's been a ride. So obviously, I was thrilled to get Akuna number one. And then as we talked about yesterday,
Starting point is 00:23:23 I went Zach Wheeler and Kevin Garland. Bosman 2 and 3. Not because that was my plan. Not because I wanted to go pitch or pitcher picture after taking Acuna, given the advantage he gives you in all the hitting categories. But because the rest of the league went so aggressively after hitting that Zach Wheeler and Kevin Gosman were obviously the best two players left.
Starting point is 00:23:41 And in a 15-team league, starting pitching tends to deplete faster anyway. So I didn't, you know, my goal in most leagues is to get four of my top 35. I found that's much harder to do in a 15-team league. league. So I thought, since they're obviously the best ones players to take, regardless of position, and this is the format where it's hardest to meet my pitching needs, I'll go ahead and take them. Then and when it got back to me in round four, this is pick 60 and 61.
Starting point is 00:24:12 I really wasn't thrilled with the calibers of hitters left. And Terrick Scuba was still there. And that fried me, because Terrick Scuba should not have still been. there. He was still there, even though Grayson Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert had already gone. That's how far into the pitching rankings we were at that point. And Terrick Scuba was still there, but I'd already used my second and third pick on a starting pitcher. So I didn't think I could take him. I took Nolan Jones and Mike Trout again, and Mike Trout instead. So that gives me three outfielders already in five picks. Three outfielders, two starting pitchers. That's good. Outfield is shallow.
Starting point is 00:24:53 It's five outfielder league, a 15 team league. Not going to have to stress about outfield the way a lot of people are. Felt okay about the way things were going. Hated to give up scuba. 30 more picks go by. We're at my 6th and 7th picks, 90 and 91 overall. Blake Snell is still there. Now, I have Blake Snell as a bus candidate this year.
Starting point is 00:25:18 He obviously hasn't signed with a team yet, so it's possible. I mean, he's eventually got to sign, but it's possible. his start to the season is delayed, just because he's not participating in spring draining right now. But 90th, 90th overall. I updated my rankings today, and I dropped them down a little bit, but I think I dropped him down to 80th as like my SP21 or 22.
Starting point is 00:25:43 So even then... Right. We were down to Tanner Bybee in my starting pitcher rankings. Tanner Bybee was the second best pitcher available after Blake Snell. So I guess from that perspective, I was justified in taking to Terek Scoubel. Because if I took Tarek Scubel and had three starting pitchers already, there's no way I could justify taking Blake Snell there. So I was happy with that.
Starting point is 00:26:05 I think that kind of redeemed all the decisions I'd made up to that point. And then Alex Bregman in round seven. So like 100 run, 100 RBI guy that late in a 15 team league. I'm feeling really good about all of it. Now, there's been a massive closer run since then, and closers looking pretty icky already here in round seven. So that's a problem. But I had hoped to build my saves pool,
Starting point is 00:26:42 my saves pool on lower end guys anyway, and on closers who are less certainer closers because they tend to be heavily discounted. If I could get three of those guys, I'm thinking like Jose LeClerc, Jose Alvarado, and Yuki Matsui, all three by ADP, go much lower than this, then I feel like I prefer that approach
Starting point is 00:27:05 to spending a sixth or seventh round pick on a closer and passing up an Alex pregnant or Blake Snell. So I'm still hoping that works out, but it's making me a little nervous how far we're into the closer ranks already, which tends to happen in 15 team leagues. So I mentioned, Scott, I'm drafting 14th yesterday's podcast.
Starting point is 00:27:21 I let everyone know I took Bryce Harper and Austin Riley, which wasn't the most ideal start that I was looking for. Wanted more speed, maybe an outfielder if I can get it in there, but it didn't work out that way. Jose Altoove felt to me at the end of the third round, which I was obviously pleased. I was looking to get one of either CJ Abrams, Randy or Rosarena, or Jose Altoouvae at the end of the third.
Starting point is 00:27:42 Altuvae was the only one of those three left, so I quickly snatched him up. And then in the early fourth round, I took Logan Webb, which I've talked a lot about, you know, this offseason. If I miss out on other starting pitcher values, I'm fine with him as a fallback option. Give me those innings. I know the strikeouts aren't amazing, but the ratios should be. And I think that you can kind of compliment him with other strikeout guys a little bit later on.
Starting point is 00:28:06 Five, six turns, Scott, I dedicated to you. Because I needed an outfielder and I needed some speed. So I took Josh Lowe, who is my first outfielder. Not the most ideal situation, but there are other outfielers I still like, and I think I can continue to fill this out. But he fit my team needs. I mentioned earlier. I took Austin Riley in the second, so needed a little bit more speed.
Starting point is 00:28:30 Needed that outfielder. You get that with Josh Lowe. And in the early sixth round, I was debating. Zach Eflin. Jesus Lazzardo. Do I take a closer? I don't have a closer yet. Was looking at Jordan Romano?
Starting point is 00:28:42 Nope. Cole Regans, baby. That's right. Maybe I don't know. Maybe I jumped the gun, the Reagan. What round was that? Early sixth round. Okay.
Starting point is 00:28:56 That's where I win mine too. Zach Eflin, I feel like he's the higher floor pitcher. He's fine, but I felt like Cole Regan's maybe compliments Logan Webb a little bit better. It gives you that big strikeout upside. So maybe I'll regret it. He doesn't have the longest track record, obviously. But I'm excited. It's my first share of Cole Regans, and we'll see the rest of the way how this plays out.
Starting point is 00:29:16 I want to quickly promote a few things. Our first live mock draft will be tomorrow night or tonight, if you're listening to this on the podcast side, February 28th. So you can come watch on YouTube. We'll do a little bit earlier than usual 9 p.m. Eastern Time. So come hang out, loads of fun. YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. Tomorrow live 12 team roto mock draft here on the channel.
Starting point is 00:29:40 It will be turned into a podcast as well. And this weekend, Chris and I will be down at first pitch, Florida. Great event put on by the folks at Baseball HQ every year. Chris is in the AL-only labor auction. I will be in the N-L-only one. We'll also be down at some spring trains there. I think it's the Clearwater area. So I think we're going to the Marlins and Phillies game on Friday. If anyone's in the area or if you're at the event, come say hello. Let's have some fun. Lastly, I do want to clear something up from yesterday, Scott, because in hindsight, I think we probably came off too negatively when talking about head-ed categories leagues.
Starting point is 00:30:18 Oh, please. I just wanted to clear the air. Look, there's no right or wrong way to play fantasy, right? It's subjective. It's like eating a recess. Completely, it's completely up to you however you want to play. So that is fine. Admittedly, we don't play in many head-to-head categories or daily lineup leagues,
Starting point is 00:30:36 but I still think a lot of our analysis, our player analysis is applicable in those formats. So I apologize. And I hope that you stick with us, obviously. Yeah. No, you should stick with us. Don't hold our preferences against us. We won't hold your preferences against you. It's subjective.
Starting point is 00:30:56 But we all have our preferences. That's exactly right. Let's take our final break. When we return, some quick news and notes, some quick spring training updates. And we've got to talk auction strategy because honestly, we could do a whole podcast on just that. So we'll do that right after this.
Starting point is 00:31:12 Welcome back in. Let's talk some news and notes. Walker Bueller through his first live BP on Tuesday, and let's see how his arm responds. So I should find that out within the next few days. Evan Carter was back in the lineup Tuesday after getting hit by a pitch on his left forearm on Sunday. Craig Kemble expects to make his Grapefruit League debut on Thursday. That's nice to see after he left live BP with Quad Soreness last weekend.
Starting point is 00:31:39 Andrew Abbott is battling with Nick Martinez for the Reds 5th. starter job. The other four spots are occupied by Hunter Green, Frankie Montas, Nicola Dolo, and Graham Ashcraft, assuming health, of course. Some free agent news, Blake Snell and the Yankees discussed a potential contract on Monday. Juan Soto has expressed that he wants the Yankees to make the move, and obviously they are former teammates together on the San Diego Padres. Jorra Montgomery recently had an online meeting with the Boston Red Sox. They can certainly use some pitching. I know there were some comments recently from Raphael Devers about how he was upset that the team didn't make more moves or maybe invest in pitching as much.
Starting point is 00:32:18 So perhaps they can write that wrong by bringing in Jordan Montgomery. And the Giants remain a possible destination for Matt Chapman. By the way, if they did bring in Montgomery, that wouldn't impact Nick Povetta or Cutter Crawford, two guys we've talked up as sleepers, some of us more than others. Yeah. They have a spot open beyond them that right now, Tanner Howe. can Garrett Whitlock are competing for. That's exactly right.
Starting point is 00:32:46 Spring training standouts from Tuesday. Alec Manoa. Yikes. I mean, we need to see something positive this spring. His first start, 1.2 innings, four earned runs, three hit by pitches. It's not what you want. Yeah, I mean, the hits and runs,
Starting point is 00:33:04 that's typical spring stuff, but three hit by pitches is not something you ever really see in a stat, line, spring or otherwise, certainly not over to an extent like this. So, yeah, it could still be an early spring thing, but it's to the point where we, like, this spring, we really need some evidence of Alec Manoa being back on track. And this was the furthest thing from that. So whatever enthusiasm I had for him as a sleeper, and it wasn't a lot, it's less now.
Starting point is 00:33:46 It's less now, I would say. And there are people waiting in the wings here. You know, they signed Yariol Rodriguez and they've talked him up as a starter. Ricky Teeteman, one of the top pitching prospects and all baseball, there are names. So if Manoa does not figure this out within his next couple of spring starts, you might be on the outside looking in. Strong Braves debut for Chris Sale, which I know you love. to see, Scotty. Oh yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:09 Four strikeouts over two perfect innings. The fastball averaged 94.9 miles per hour, which is up one mile per hour from last year. He maxed out at 97 in this start. So really encouraging. Some guys usually build up throughout spring, so it's nice to see Chris Sale is already there. Yu Darvish made his spring debut.
Starting point is 00:34:27 He struck out three over two scoreless innings, and Darvish is coming back from a stress reaction in his elbow last year. And the recap article on MLB.com said Darvish has been fully cleared for more than two months and he has felt no effects of the injury and based on where he's going in ADP
Starting point is 00:34:44 quickly pull that up 179.6 if Darvish is healthy that could be a pretty big steal I mean that's a big if I get that and production has been inconsistent but we know that there's still a talented pitcher in there
Starting point is 00:35:01 well I'm less sure of that I'm more confident there's a talented pitcher in Chris Sale and he is going earlier by ADP. And he's younger than Darvish too, right? Two to three years younger, I think. Yeah, I think three years younger than Darvish. With Darvish, okay, so even if you want to dismiss last year
Starting point is 00:35:21 because he was going through elbow stuff, fine. But the year before, he was right out of strikeout per inning. I mean, he's not the Darvish from earlier in his career who would average 11K per 9. It's been a two-year trend of him not being that guy anymore. And so I do think the upside for Darvish is limited to like the mid tiers. I'm not saying he couldn't transcend the glob potentially, but he would be on the lower end of that, I think at a best case scenario.
Starting point is 00:35:49 If he gets back to the K-to-walk ratio from 2022 and pitches to a mid-3s, ERA and a 110 or 115 whip, and I think that would be a pretty- Merrill Kelly. Yeah, that would be a pretty good return on investment where he's going now, right? Like pick 180. So we'll see. A lot of it comes down to health, obviously, as well for you Darvish. Frankie Montas looked good in his Reds debut.
Starting point is 00:36:11 He threw two perfect innings with two strikeouts. Apparently sat 94 to 96 miles per hour with the fastball. And the last time we saw him healthy in 2022, he averaged 96.1 miles per hour on that fastball. So I think this is an okay starting point, but we want to see the velocity build a little bit throughout spring. But it's a good first step here for Frankie Montas. Casey Mize, also returning from Tommy John's surgery, he made his spring debut,
Starting point is 00:36:36 and his velocity was up over two miles per hour on each of his four seam, splitter, and slider. So I think that's encouraging, obviously, for a former top pitching prospect in Casey Mize. J.P. Sears, through two perfect innings with two strikeouts, he debuted a new sinker. He's an extreme flyball pitcher, and I think perhaps a sinker would help in his arsenal. We had some relievers turned starters in action that looked pretty good. Jordan Hicks made his Giants debut, recorded four of his five outs via the strikeout.
Starting point is 00:37:06 AJ Puck made his rotation debut with the Marlins. He threw two perfect innings with three strikeouts. He also threw four splitters, a pitch he has never thrown in his career. So kind of interesting. And Garrett Crochet with the White Sox, he threw one and two-thirds shutout innings, two strikeouts against the Dodgers of all teams.
Starting point is 00:37:24 He struck out Chohei Otani looking and apparently hit 99 miles per hour on the fastball. Scott, all three of these names have SPARP eligibility and slight intrigue. So names to watch. Yeah, I would say so. I'm less, so what's funny is Jordan Hicks already has a rotation spot. He's the most likely to be in this role. But I think he has the least upside in this role.
Starting point is 00:37:50 I mean, we don't know exactly what crochet's upside is because he's hardly pitched in the majors, period. But he was a first round pick. he throws very hard. And unlike Jordan Hicks, we haven't already seen him in the starting roll. So we don't really know what he can do. And that makes me a little more excited about the possibilities. And then AJ Puck, I think he could potentially be a great starter, but he has a lot of competition there with the Marlins.
Starting point is 00:38:18 It's a good first step, though, because it's not like Edward Cabrera. There are questions in that bullpen. I mean, in that rotation, Trevor Rogers coming back. Right. Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera, neither of them is a sure to roll. Brax and Garrett has the shoulder too, so. Yep. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:35 We'll see. I mean, yeah, there is an opportunity here with AJ Puck. Let's talk auction slash salary cap strategy here, Scott. And we both said this is our preferred way to play. Highly recommend it. If you haven't tried it out before, please do it. It's very fun. Let's start with your budget.
Starting point is 00:38:51 Typical auction is $260 in fantasy baseball. and one of the first questions we usually receive about this format is how do you distribute your money? So I feel like 70, 30 in favor of hitting is quite common. I'm in the process of creating my plan for Anna Labor this weekend. And what I like to do is look back at the previous year's winner or like the top three finishers
Starting point is 00:39:18 and that's exactly what I did. So the top three finishers in that format last year, first place was 7525 in favor of hitting. Second place was 6733 and third place was 7327. So you could see it's kind of all over the place. There's no right or wrong answer here. It really just comes down to preference, Scott. So do you have an aim in mind? Do you like to go 70% hitting 30 or 6535? Or do you not even think about that? Yeah. Didn't we just talk about this last week? It's never been. I think we did on a mailbag. Okay. Yeah. It's never been a.
Starting point is 00:39:55 It's never been the way I've gone about it, saying I want to spend this much on pitching and this much on hitting and let me come up with my plan based on that. What I do going into an auction or a salary cap draft is I look where the scarcities are. And I look at projected auction values and where I can afford to save money and still feel like I'm getting a quality option. and where I'm not, where I have to spend to get the production at the level I'm looking for. And then I make out a plan that hinges on me, spending where I feel like I need to spend and saving where I feel like I need to save and reworking the numbers, adjusting my expectations until I get it to add up to 260. And I take that with me into the draft and I,
Starting point is 00:40:55 try to stick to that budget more or less. You can never stick to it exactly. Sometimes you have to scrap it completely because things are just going so differently than you expect the way people are bidding on high-end guys or the way they're bidding on stolen bases, which happened in the AL-only salary cap draft I did this week. You just have to make some pretty big adjustments in draft
Starting point is 00:41:24 that causes you to more or less abandon your strategy. But just by having a strategy, it's very easy to adjust on the fly. Okay, I wanted to spend $25 on a third basement. I had to spend $27 instead. Not the end of the world, but I have to take those $2 away from something else. So you have specific dollar amounts that you allocate to each position, or do you find a player you like at each position and then you kind of map it out that way? because yeah both i i i find the player or i guess i guess for me it's more like
Starting point is 00:41:59 i look at the i look at the ten dollar options at third base the ones i project to go for ten dollars and there are four of them i like in that range and so okay i'm going to plan on spending ten dollars on third base getting one of those four guys yeah so what i like to do in a rhodo draft rhodo's a little bit tougher because i feel like you can't just say, in my opinion, you can't just say, all right, I'm going to allocate this money for this position because they have to have a similar skill set, right? Like, at the end of the draft,
Starting point is 00:42:35 you still have to come away with a certain number of home runs and steals, right? Like, you don't just want to wind up with a bunch of home runs. So what I like to do is I will find a specific player that I like at each position. And then I will try to find a backup player that has a similar skill set. to that in case I can't get that player. So, for example, Josh Lowe, let's say I'll budget $20 for Josh Lowe.
Starting point is 00:43:00 I like the player, I like his skill set. I will try to find a backup that's similar. Let's say a Christian Yelich, right? Someone that can hit 270, 20-ish home runs, 30 plus steals, right? And so I will try to do that for every position. It's not the easiest thing, admittedly, but for Roto, I think it's a little bit tougher because, again, you have to balance the case. categories as well as trying to budget the money.
Starting point is 00:43:25 No, that's true. It's not just about positions. It's about where are, where am I getting my stolen bases? And maybe Josh Lois, somebody I really like for stolen bases this year. I like the bang for the buck on stolen base return there. And so it may be,
Starting point is 00:43:42 there may be one specific player I'm zeroing in on. And my entire strategy for that auction depends on me getting that player. So I may budget a little more. more for him than I would otherwise. And when there is a situation where it all hinges on one player like that, I make a backup strategy in case I don't get that player. I have a plan B that I can pivot to with, again, every position mapped out with some different players on there who can give me stolen bases, let's say.
Starting point is 00:44:15 And that way I don't feel like I have to blow out my budget by $7 on this one guy that everything depends on or I'm totally lost if I back off and have to figure out how to compensate for that lack of stolen bases. So yeah,
Starting point is 00:44:30 it all factors in. Getting back to the pitching versus hitting point this year, of course, starting pitching for me, it's all about the glob and wanting to be, wanting to get a certain number of pitchers
Starting point is 00:44:47 who are outside the glob, who I can actually trust their performance, and they can give me a good ERA whip base and especially strikeout base. But then when I have to go into the glob, just taking whatever values come to me and being not so particular about which pitchers I get because that's the whole point of the glob is that
Starting point is 00:45:06 it's going to be kind of random, what order they finish in, I feel like. So that's how I'm making up my strategy this year with pitching is how many pitchers do I want before we get into the glob, ideally for me, it's four. Do I need a high-end guy like a Kevin Gosman who's going to cost me? I don't have my values in front of me. I just didn't have an AL only.
Starting point is 00:45:29 So the value for Gosman was probably higher, but $25, let's say. Yeah, that sounds right. Am I going to want to spend that much or am I going to be, or am I willing to settle for like a Logan Gilbert and a Justin Steele and, you know, Yuri Perez, Mitch Keller, let's say? and allocate my dollars that way. And, you know, how much, what I decide to do depends on what I'm looking to do at hitting. But the point is you got a lot of spots to fill. You got a lot of spots to fill and your dollars, you can only afford so many splurges. So I feel like you have to come up with that plan going in.
Starting point is 00:46:08 It's just, it's going to be so easy to get overwhelmed if you're trying to figure it out on the fly. And to leave yourself with a hole of some kind, whether it's at a position, or within a category or whatever. Chris Towers, if he was here, you know, he never comes up with a plan. And, you know, that's fine. I can't, I can't say my prospect, I can't say my process is right for everybody.
Starting point is 00:46:33 But I do feel like it's a very important process for me. I think two of the strategies we get asked about most in this format are stars and scrubs and spreading the wealth, right? And there's a way to kind of play both sides of that if you want to. But have you ever tried it? Does it work? Can you do it in specific formats, but not others? What do you think about that?
Starting point is 00:46:58 I mean, in standard mixed leagues, especially the shallower the league. I think Stars and Scrubs is absolutely the way. I've had the most success when I've done that. Because the scrubs aren't actually scrubs. If the format is shallow enough, the scrubs are players who potentially have high end-up side themselves. The waiver wire is fertile if those low-end dollar picks don't work out. You have quality options to fall back on. The high-end players, the studs, are the ones everybody's trying to, you know,
Starting point is 00:47:30 what's the classic fantasy baseball trade that you can never get to work anymore because everybody knows it's a bad deal? It's two-for-one trades. You're trading two decent players for a stud. Nobody accepts that trade anymore. Well, if you just get the studs in the first place and those are the foundation of your team, then it's like you did that already, like you traded, the two decent players for the stud.
Starting point is 00:47:48 But it has to be a shallow enough league that you feel confident you're going to get good options for a couple bucks and you feel confident the waiver wire will help you backfill those spots if they don't work out. If it's a deep league like a 15-team roto or certainly like the AL and NL-only ones I've been doing this week, opposite end of the spectrum. That is very much spread the wealth in those A-L-N-L-only ones
Starting point is 00:48:16 I try not to go $30 on any player because the one, two, $3 players in those leagues, you can't even be confident they're going to play that much. That's a big disadvantage. Just filling every lineup spot with players who are actually putting up numbers is a big part of the battle in those deep, deep roto leagues. So, yeah, my approach changes completely with that.
Starting point is 00:48:44 if we're talking about a 12-team Roto League where somewhere in the neighborhood of 350 players are rostered counting the reserve spots, which generally aren't auctioned. They're done via reserve draft later, but they're still on rosters. They're not on the waiver wire. That's kind of a medium depth league.
Starting point is 00:49:04 Yeah. And in the past, I've had my, I've had my most success historically doing a Stars and Scrubs approach in that. But I feel like I feel like fantasy baseball has become much more competitive in recent years. Like just ideas and strategies have been passed around enough that the level of competition has been raised. And I'm not sure I haven't had as much success in recent years doing stars and scrubs in the 12 team road a league where about 350 players are rostered. So I'm kind of in between how I want to approach that league.
Starting point is 00:49:43 Kind of unsure about that. A critical point, though, when I say stars and scrubs, and really this goes even if you're not doing stars and scrubs, you don't want the scrubs to be literally $1 guys. At least you don't want to budget for that because the difference between $2 and $1 is huge. This is the most important piece of auction strategy I can offer. if you go for your max bid too early you leave yourself half a dozen one dollar spots to fill you are going to get the dregs okay you're going to get the worst of the worst because you could only win the players you nominate and if anyone else likes that player when you nominate him
Starting point is 00:50:28 they go to two dollars you're out you got to wait through a whole round of nominations to have a chance at anybody else. So you're just kind of guessing, okay, what player is bad enough that nobody wants to go $2, but I'm still happy to win him? And a lot of times you're guessing wrong, even in those guys,
Starting point is 00:50:46 because somebody jumps in at the dollar. You want to be the one who jumps in it for a dollar when somebody else nominates a $1 guy. If it's somebody you really want, just go straight to three, skip two entirely. And that I think is critical. That I think is critical to make sure
Starting point is 00:51:03 the low dollar guys are still quality guys. Scott, talk to me about your nomination process. If there is a process there, I mean, again, I don't know that there's a right answer per se. I mean, some people like to nominate players that they don't want because they wanna get money off the board, which I totally understand that, but there are also people that will nominate players
Starting point is 00:51:25 that they do want, right, to try and keep people off balance, right? So do you have a process or a strategy with nominations? Ultimately, I don't think it's the most important thing. It's a sort of thing you could stress about too much. I don't think it's that big of a deal. I think the most critical point with that with nominations is if you're, if you're out a point in the draft where nobody has much money left and you nominate for a guy for a dollar who you don't really want, you may win him for a dollar.
Starting point is 00:51:58 So you have to be careful with that. Yeah. there's a point where you can't throw any guy out for a dollar and trust somebody's going to bid you up to two. So that could mess you up. But otherwise, it's not that big of a deal to me. What I did in the most recent one, the AL-only one, and this could go for a mix league. It's not an AL-only specific thing. I noticed that for the first two-thirds of the draft, everybody nominated was going for more than I had him
Starting point is 00:52:30 projected for. So I was going for relative, I was, I was nominating relatively low end players that I didn't want and seeing them go for four, five, six dollars more than I had them projected for. So I was draining money consistently so that I could get the players I actually did want in that price range or even a higher price range of midrange guys for cheaper than I had them projected for, but just because so much money was used up. So a lot of my nomination strategy is based on what I see happening in the room. If somebody test the waters with a low end, I don't know, let's say a mid-range guy, a guy who I would project for $10, let's say, somebody throws him out early when there's still a bunch of studs on the board, and he goes for $4 just because people are like, eh, I'm not really thinking
Starting point is 00:53:25 about that yet. I got to figure out what my studs are before I consider that. Okay, well, maybe it's a good time to nominate that guy, a guy you want yourself, because it seems like you could get him for cheaper than he's projected for. So you just kind of have to read the room and make your nomination decisions based on that. There are times when bidding activity has nothing to do with my nomination. And I just see that like, my, My strategy depends on my ability to get this player. And a lot of players are being one who I might be interested in if I can't get this player. But until I get this player, until this player's gone and I see what he goes for. I can't afford to spend on those other guys who might be my fallback options. If all my fallback options are going before the critical guy has been nominated, I just go ahead and nominate the critical guy. Because I, if it turns out my expectations for him are,
Starting point is 00:54:25 unrealistic and I never had a chance of winning him that I want players to fall back on. And if I wait until they're all gone, then, you know, I've given, I've given myself nothing to pivot to. Let's talk bidding because I think there is a psychology behind this. There's a strategy behind it as well. And obviously it depends whether or not you're doing an auction online or you're doing an auction person with people. But I like to change it up, Scott. I like to sometimes I will let it go all the way down going once. going twice
Starting point is 00:54:56 and then I'll bid yeah and then because to me psychologically it makes the other person think that ah you know I was really thinking about it I'm probably not going to go that extra dollar
Starting point is 00:55:11 and it just it just kind of changes people's mindset and other times where if there's a player I really want I'll do that the first time going once going twice art I'll bid someone else bids again I'll bid right away and I'll just kind of like change up my cadence It's just to like, people don't know what I'm doing, you know,
Starting point is 00:55:27 try to be a little bit unpredictable within the draft. Totally agree. Totally agree. If we've got a nice, consistent volley going, you know, like, all right, 13, okay, 14, 15, 15, and we're just like really consistent tempo, I'll hesitate. This is me and one other person I'm talking about. I'll hesitate to make them think, eh, I'm not sure I really want to do this extra dollar. Okay, I guess I'll.
Starting point is 00:55:54 Yes, I'll go in. I love that strategy behind it. It legitimately is me hedging, but they don't know. They don't know if I'm legitimately hedging or if I'm playing a game, but I'm trying to get them to slow their role because they don't know exactly where I'm going to stop. And, you know, other times we'll have that consistent volley going quickly. I'm bidding them. They're bidding.
Starting point is 00:56:16 I'm bidding the guy up. They're bidding back. And I'll just abruptly stop, and that'll be it. And they'll be stuck with them wherever he is. Yeah. Something I've noticed about doing live auctions too. And shout out to Ariel Cohen, great fantasy player, great auction player. He will change the volume of his voice within a live auction when bidding on players.
Starting point is 00:56:41 It's so interesting, but it just does enough to throw people off a little bit. He'll scream out a number, and then he'll kind of say a number lowly and softly, and it'll just kind of throw people off a little bit. and next thing you know, you want a player for cheap. So it's like there's definitely a psychological aspect to doing it in person too, and it's really fun. I like thinking about that part of the game as well. Scott, talk to me about price enforcing.
Starting point is 00:57:07 So how often do you find yourself bidding on a player who is going for less than they should, even though you really don't want to win that player? Well, not often, occasionally. I think the important thing to keep in mind is you should never truly bid on a player just to enforce the price. If you bid on a player,
Starting point is 00:57:32 you have to be prepared to win that player for the amount you bid, which of course everybody knows on an intellectual level, but you might do it assuming somebody's going to bid you up and it doesn't. I mean, the famous Jed Jerko story
Starting point is 00:57:49 with Nando. how many times I've told this story. But I was going superstars and scrubs. This was when, this was when Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in some order were obviously the top two picks and fantasy. I won them both. I was doing a superstars and scrubs thing.
Starting point is 00:58:06 I knew Nando was obsessed with Jed Jerko. The bidding just kept going up. And I just, I don't know. I thought, I thought, because Nando's always been like, somebody who just has his guys and gets them no matter the cost he doesn't really pay attention to what everybody else is doing he just wants his guys values his guys
Starting point is 00:58:29 and so I thought that's what he'd do with Jed Jerko I think the price got up to like $24 and Nanda just stopped bidding and I don't want Jed Jerko with my I couldn't afford a splurge on Jed Jerko after spending like a combined I don't know $120 $15 on Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera Geez. Yeah, I mean, I think I still finished fourth in that league,
Starting point is 00:58:53 so it's not like it was a total disaster, but it could have won that league, Frank, if I wasn't price enforcing. And ever since then, I've been hesitant to do it. It's more, when I do price and force, it's more like, okay, come on, this guy can't go for 16. We can't have, we can't have Raphael Devers go. for $17 when
Starting point is 00:59:21 when Alex Breggman went for 23 or whatever. Yeah. Might be an extreme example, but you get what I'm saying. We got to get them up. Let's keep going. I can't let you get this discount. But it's more when I do that,
Starting point is 00:59:37 it's not exactly what I've budgeted, but I can live with it. I can live with it if it turns out I win Raphael Devers. I can make the adjustments to still put together basically the roster I want. I think it's worth doing in that situation, but you have to be very careful with it. Last two pro tips,
Starting point is 00:59:57 and you can quickly react to them, Scott. Try to avoid bidding on the last player in a tier, because that player, while it doesn't always happen, a lot of the times that player will go for more money than they should. So, for example, I think there's a pretty clear, either top six or top seven starting pitchers this year. Let's say the other five,
Starting point is 01:00:18 for example, are gone. The last player thrown out from that tier is Luis Castillo, let's say. There's a chance that Luis Castile will go for more than a Kevin Gosman or a Zach Wheeler or maybe even a Corbyn Burns because he's the last player of that tier and everybody else knows it. Now, there aren't always clear examples of the end of a tier, but I think an example like that, people kind of know and they realize, all right, well, this is the last, you know, SP1 or legit ace up top and that player sometimes could go for more than they should.
Starting point is 01:00:48 Last pro tip, spend your money. You don't want to leave with money on the table. It's just an awful feeling. Then you start thinking, oh, well, I could have had this player. If I went the extra dollar, blah, blah. But come up with a plan, but make sure, spend your money. You don't want to leave the auction with money on the table. Look, if you have three or four dollars left over, I don't think that's as bad.
Starting point is 01:01:10 Spend it all. I don't think that's as bad as having like $10, $1 players on your roster, where you spent it so early that you just had to settle for the dregs, you know? That's fair. But, yeah, certainly having like 12, 13, 14, that's a big problem if you have that much money left over. The tiers thing, I don't know how true it is.
Starting point is 01:01:35 I mean, there are certainly instances where there was clearly the last player of the tier and his value got pushed up beyond the others in the tier. But it's, I feel like just as often, I've been like, okay, I'm going to be, on the second to last player in the tier because I don't want to be the one to bid on the last one. And he turns out to be inflated
Starting point is 01:01:52 compared to the actual last one in the tier. Reverse psychology. I don't know if it was intentional or if it's just the way it worked out. I'm less fearful of that, though, than I used to be. By the way, when I was saying $17 for Raphael Devers,
Starting point is 01:02:09 I mean, I was just pulling numbers out of thin air. He's got to go for a lot more than 17. Yeah. I just wanted to. verify that because I pulled up my auction values. Oh, I'm projecting Devers for 31. You got the point of what I was saying, regardless of the players or the amounts I used.
Starting point is 01:02:26 Anything else, Scott, again, we could do a whole episode or multiple episodes on just this topic, but was there anything else that we missed that you wanted to make sure we mentioned on auctions? So usually, as we said with auctions, you're filling out your starting lineup and handling the reserve draft, handling the reserve spots afterward.
Starting point is 01:02:48 So you have to be careful with that. For instance, an example from the AL-only one I did earlier this week, I was behind in stolen bases. I had stolen-based problems. I saw four quality steals options in my mind out there. One of them was a middle infielder. One of them was DH-only, Byron Buxton, actually. I needed both of them to address the steals issue.
Starting point is 01:03:16 And so that meant I had to leave middle infield and utility my D.H. spot open. Because I filled them with someone else. I mean, you can't fill bench spots in the auction usually. I'd just be prevented from getting them. So I had to pass up discounts I really liked, like Davis Schneider. Again, this is an AOL only. David Schneider went for $4, and I hated to see that happen. J.D. Martinez, obviously hasn't signed yet.
Starting point is 01:03:40 It might not wind up in the A.L. But he went for $1. I couldn't bid two on him because I had to leave that spot for. for Byron Buckston to get those steals. And it killed me in the moment, but I knew I needed those steals. And so I could not afford to bid on the discount
Starting point is 01:03:59 just because it was a discount. I had to focus on the needs and I had to make sure not to block those spots. And I ended up winning both of the players I was trying for for more money than Schneider and Martinez went for. And again, that's an AL-only example. The league, the names may vary,
Starting point is 01:04:16 it's something that would apply regardless of the format. You have to make sure that not to block positions of players you need, knowing that bench space is not something that generally applies to the auction. And to your point, too, discipline, right? Having that discipline to know, all right, look, this is what I need. While I really like Davis Schneider, he doesn't give me what I need. So, again, there is, I think, discipline. Plin plays a big part in those drafts as well.
Starting point is 01:04:49 We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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