Fantasy Baseball Today - Snell to the Padres! Talkin' Pitching with SP Streamer Michael Simione! (12/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: December 28, 2020🚨Blake Snell has been traded to the Padres!!! Chris Towers joined us for an emergency segment at the top of the show. How much does this affect Snell's value? ... Can Francisco Mejia or Luis Patiñ...o make an impact in 2021 (4:50)? ... SP Streamer Michael Simione joins the show (10:37)! We start off with the news and notes from the weekend, which included Josh Bell being traded to the Nationals on Christmas Eve (12:25). Is there hope for Bell to get back to his 2019 form? ... Michael has had great success streaming starting pitchers in-season. What's his secret (20:54)? ... Let's take a look at some of his rankings standouts, starting with Luis Castillo at SP4 (27:25). Why did Frank recently move Aaron Nola up to SP4? ... It's time to show Brandon Woodruff some love (34:20). What are the concerns with Max Scherzer? ... Is Mike in on Zach Plesac (40:50)? ... Is Sonny Gray vs. Walker Buehler a real debate (46:30)? ... What are the concerns with Kenta Maeda (52:00)? ... Tyler Mahle and other late-round pitchers to target (56:44). ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
This is starting to become a theme where every time we finish recording a podcast,
a massive trade goes down before it was Lance Lans to the White Sox,
and now we get Blake Snell traded to the San Diego Padres.
But it's perfectly fine if it means that I get to talk with Chris Towers about it.
So welcome to fantasy baseball today.
The return of Chris.
We're here to talk about this trade.
Snell to the Padres for Luis Petino, Francisco Mejia, two other prospects.
Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox.
Massive deal here.
We've heard for a few weeks, a few days now.
Chris, that the Padres were looking into making another big trade for a starting pitcher,
and they go out and get Blake Snell.
So instant reaction here. What does this do to Blake Snell's fantasy value?
Probably not too much.
Maybe helps it a little bit because Tampa's a good place to pitch,
but obviously he'll be getting out of the American League East.
He'll be going to the NL West, which, you know, on the whole has a couple of really good
hitters parks, but I think plays relatively neutral overall,
which is an improvement over the A.
East, which is four hitters parks outside of Tampa. I guess are the Blue Jays still playing in
Buffalo next year? They haven't announced yet. Do we have confirmation about that? They haven't said.
So yeah, I think it's probably, you know, better lineup backing him up, probably slightly
worse. Defense maybe, but overall, I think it's mostly negligible, maybe a slight upgrade for
Blake Snow. Yeah, I think that's where I'm at too. My initial reaction was a cautious upgrade for
the reasons you mentioned, I think better
run support, probably a slightly better
park to pitch in, probably just better division
in general. We just saw him dominate the Dodgers
twice in the postseason at 18 strikeouts
and 10 innings pitched against them.
And he was still really good this year.
The problem with Blake Snell
Chris has been his lack of volume
when it comes to innings. And
he averaged under five innings
per start this season and he has not
completed six in a start since
July 21st, 2019. And while
we're frustrated about that from a
fantasy perspective, there's a method to the madness. This is someone who has dealt with
shoulder injuries and elbow injuries. So that's where the cautious part comes in because while it's
frustrating, I kind of feel like the rays knew what they were doing with Blake Snell. We could
see Snell pitch more innings now, but I think that might also lead to a higher chance at injury
if we can even quantify that. I know you're big on like injuries or you know, predicting injuries.
It's not really, you know, a real thing. It might increase his injury.
risk, but his injury risk is already relatively high.
One being a pitcher and two being a pitcher,
who does have that history of injuries,
especially elbow and shoulder that he's dealt with
over the last two seasons.
But he's really, really good.
He had 91 strikeouts and 74 innings across the postseason
and regular season last season.
You're a little worried about that injury risk
and maybe you downgrade him a little bit.
But if you're talking just talent,
I mean, he's certainly in the discussion for the top 12.
You've got two seasons pitching at an ace level over the last three.
And, you know, 2019 was pretty fluky.
That was pretty fluky bad.
And fluky bad was a 429 ERA and a 1.271 way.
It was still pretty good.
Yeah, when he's on his game, I mean, he had four pitches and we saw it throughout the postseason.
Like, the guy is just awesome.
It's just a matter of him staying on the field.
We'll see if he can do just that.
His early ADP over at the NFBC is in the month of December.
It is 52.1 as the 17th starting pitcher off the board.
Do you think he moves up at all, Chris?
I think he probably could move up a little bit.
I want to see who he's behind right now.
And so it's Tyler Glass now.
Very similar concerns.
Very similar upside.
Kenta Maeda.
maybe not quite as much upside.
Zach Gallen, maybe not quite as much upside.
I could see him moving up a half around.
You know, if he's 52nd right now,
I could see him moving up into the back half of the fourth round,
and that feels like good value.
Yeah, and I think I could see it as well.
I don't know that I'm going to move my head of those guys
in my personal rankings,
but I could see him just moving up the ADP.
People are going to be excited about him going out to the West Coast.
On the other side in this deal,
Francisco Mejia and, of course, Luis Petino
are the bigger names
that are most likely ready to contribute right away.
Mahia could potentially be the starting catcher.
They do have Mike Zanino there,
who he's a pretty good framer
and obviously has familiarity with the organization.
But what do you think with these two guys?
Francisco Mejia and Luis Patino,
do you think that they can be difference makers right away
this season moving over to Tampa Bay?
I'm definitely a lot more interested in Patino.
Mejia kind of falls under the...
I've had kind of a working theory
that is backed up by some data that if a player gets traded,
especially a top prospect gets traded,
usually it means the outcomes that he's going to see are worse than they otherwise would be.
Usually, it's not always, it's not consistent,
but on the whole, at a population level,
top prospects who get traded perform worse than top prospects who don't get traded.
And in Mejia's case, I think the Indians kind of soured on him.
him. There was a point where it felt like we spent a full year wondering when they were going to
call him up, when they were going to call him up. When he got called up, he didn't really produce.
They tried to find another spot in the lineup for him. It gets traded the Padres. When's he going
to get an everyday job? When's he going to stop splitting time? And it never quite happened.
And I know the rays are magic and everybody believes that they can just like, you know, use their
science beans and make every player good. But,
they've missed too.
And so I'm pretty pessimistic about Francisco Mejia's chances.
He's a 25-year-old who's failed to latch on with two different teams now.
So, you know, he's in the number two catcher conversation and probably not particularly high.
Patino, on the other hand, you know, he wasn't great in his audition last season, pitched 17 and the third innings.
with a 519 ERA.
It's pretty bad.
Yeah, but look,
it's not as bad as Jose Barrios' first taste of the majors was,
if you remember when he had an 8 plus ERA
over about 60 innings.
That's correct.
You know, he throws hard.
The stuff was impressive.
He got, you know, a decent number of strikeouts,
18, I believe, in those 17 innings.
So 21 and 17.
21, yep.
Yeah, he's one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
He has a very limited track record, 250-something innings in his professional career.
Obviously, last season being shortened and not having a minor league season,
you know, he probably would have gone over the 100-inning mark for the first time in 2020
if there had been a 2020 season.
But, you know, he is still 21 years old, just turned 21 two months ago.
And you have that kind of injury nexus idea, I guess, where, you know, we don't know if he can handle that
150 inning workload. We don't know if he'll get the opportunity to throw 150 innings in 2019 or
2021. Wow.
Man, what year are you in, Chris? Happy New Year's 2019 is going to be a great year, guys. To be fair,
we're recording this very late. You know, this broke late on Sunday. We need some sleep.
But yeah, I think in 2021, you probably bet against him throwing 150 innings, especially on the
raise. This is like we talked about with Blake's next.
like we've talked about with Tyler Glass now,
they're going to play it safe with their guys.
I don't think it's a guarantee he cracks the opening day rotation.
Yeah, it's not crazy.
He definitely could use some seasoning based on what we saw this year.
Still only 21 years old.
That's Luis Petino, but I think if you have him in Dynasty,
the arrows pointing straight up.
Specifically with pitchers, we've seen Tampa Bay just get great results
out of a bunch of different guys developing Blake Snell.
Of course, they had David Price, Tyler Glass now,
everything they did with him. Charlie Morton went there after Houston and he just basically
picked up where he left off. So they do have a really good track record with pitchers in general.
So I think from a dynasty perspective, it might not happen this first season in 2021.
I think you're right about that, Chris. We could even see him be used as like an opener or a
follower. So we don't know what his role is going to be yet. But the long-term upside for someone
like Luis Petino is very exciting. All right, we're going to wrap up here. You can listen to the
rest of the podcast now that we have coming up with myself.
and Michael Simeon.
But Chris will be joining us
for the rest of January.
Sprinkle them in here.
Get them back in here on fantasy baseball today.
So we're very excited about that, Chris.
Yeah, I'm working on my rankings.
I'm going to have rankings this year.
Yeah, you heard that.
If they're going to go on the site
or if I'm just going to keep them to myself.
But I will have full rankings.
They'll be available at some point.
And I'm looking forward to it.
Full-time analyst now.
No more editing.
I just get to talk.
Let's go.
Let's go. We're going to get Chris on here. Rankings. Rankies from Chris. It just sounds so far.
And all right. We're going to do it. Looking forward to it here. Fantasy Baseball today. Enjoy the rest of the podcast with Michael Simeone and myself.
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball today podcast from CBS Sports.
I drive. Shut your feet. Got a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at Cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league.
Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam. Happy Monday, everybody, and welcome into Fantasy Baseball.
today. Frank Stamphle here, no Scott White. Hope everybody had a fantastic holiday and you received
all the gifts you wanted. I'm still waiting on my number one Christmas wish and that's for
Joe Musgrove to be traded, but I'll save that for another day. I have a feeling it might be coming
soon. We'll see. The Pittsburgh Pirates Wheeling and Dealing. Joining me today is a man that
probably knows a thing or two about Joe Musgrove and pitchers in general. Make sure you follow all of his
work at SPStreamer.com. You could also find his work at Fangraphs and Fantasy Pro
listen to the SP Streamer Fantasy Baseball Podcast
and make sure to follow him on Twitter.
You guessed at SPStreamer.
Michael Simeo, and what's going on, buddy?
What's going on, Frank?
Yeah, it's really hard.
All you have to do is remember SPStreamer
and that's like everything that I do.
Well, welcome to the show.
I'm going to put you on the spot here.
Get anything cool for Christmas?
Honestly, not too cool.
There's a lot of clothes.
I'm kind of a nerd and I like Star Wars
and I also weirdly like
building Lego, so I got like a little Star War Lego set.
That was probably the highlight of all my gifts.
I did get some cool like bourbon stuff too, but that's really it.
I can appreciate the clothes, man.
If anyone's watching on YouTube right now, if you see me wearing this, this fancy collared shirt,
I was one of those kids, Mike where I'm going to call you Mike, Michael, I'm going to change off here and there.
I was one of those kids where within the first two weeks of all the clothing I got for Christmas,
I needed to wear everything.
I just needed to try on and wear all my clothes.
So that's what I'm doing now.
That's why I have this polo shirt on in case people are wondering.
It's got a funky pattern.
It does, right?
It's actually from Express, a former sponsor of the show,
but they still sponsor fantasy football today.
So shout out to Express.
And I saw your picture of the little Lego Stormtripper you put on Twitter.
And it looked pretty awesome, if I must say so myself.
Today on the show mentioned, we're going to talk about streaming, starting pictures.
We're going to dig into Mike's strategy a little bit on that.
because, as you could see, by his pin tweet on Twitter,
the guy's pretty good at streaming starting pitchers.
So we'll dig in and figure out what his process is for that.
And he recently released his updated top 100 starting pictures,
which you could find over at SPStreamer.com.
So we're going to compare and contrast rankings a little bit
and just see which pitchers in general you're higher on and lower on than I am.
But of course, news and notes mention we've got to start off with the big trade.
Honestly, if it didn't happen on Christmas Eve,
I would have done an emergency podcast.
I was just getting ready to go out to my in-laws
and then the next day I went to my parents.
I literally just did not have time to get to an emergency podcast for Josh Bell.
But we'll do it right now.
He was traded to the Washington Nationals for prospects.
Eddie Yeen and Will Crow.
Josh Bell hit 226 with eight home runs, 22 RBI,
and a 669 OPS in 2020.
He is currently the 22nd first basement off the board
at pick 187.4 over at the NFBT.
just behind Jared Walsh and Christian Walker.
Mike, he's kind of been all over the place.
That first half of 2019 was awesome.
Kind of fell off in the second half,
and that carried over this past season.
There's a lot of movement in his swing.
There's a lot going on with, like, his leg kick
and just his mechanics in general.
So what is your confidence level in him getting back anywhere close
to the player we saw in 2019?
I'm not too confident.
He's going to be one of those players
where I basically really don't touch
and I'd rather watch from the sidelines.
While I think the trade does help him
because now he's going to be in a better lineup,
you know,
it looks like he might end up hitting behind Soto,
which will give him more RBI opportunities.
But, I mean, since the 2019 All-Star break,
he hasn't been that great.
He hit 229, WRC Plus is only 90,
especially last year he has a lot of trouble
hitting those breaking balls and off-speed pitches.
And most importantly, though,
he had a major dip in his launch angle and he relies on hitting those fly balls.
So I just feel like you don't know what to take with him.
I do think he has that upside and he definitely could hit for a lot of power.
But I'd rather just wait and see what we get from him and potentially find out what kind of
player he really is.
So for me, I'm not very confident.
Like I said, just kind of going to wait on the sidelines and watch him play.
Yeah, I kind of feel you on that one.
I think, if anything, this can't hurt, right?
It's moving over to Washington.
The protection in the lineup should help more RBI opportunities, as you mentioned.
It's not like playing in Pittsburgh is a great ballpark anyway.
So I think if anything, you know, this is a move that can help him.
And I think we're going to see the ADP climb up just a little bit from where he's been at.
But yeah, there was, there's been more bad, I would say, in Josh Bell's career than good.
And really just that first half of 2019.
I saw a quote over the weekend
where he did a little introductory press conference via Zoom.
I don't even know if that's like a press conference at that point,
but he did an introductory Zoom call,
and he had this quote, looking back at this past year.
I think that things got long, Bell said of his swing.
I feel like I was kind of jerking into my front side
just a little more than I'd like to.
I just kind of was jumping toward the ball,
and that doesn't play at this level,
doesn't play guys with high, V-low.
So he knows what he needs to work on.
We'll see if he can make the proper adjustments.
That is Josh Bell.
Now moving over to the Washington Nationals.
I mentioned the prospects he was traded for.
Eddie Yeen and Will Crow.
Mike, for the most part,
people seemed underwhelmed by this return for Josh Bell.
Do you know anything or are interested in either one of those prospects?
I mean, not too much.
I'm not like the biggest prospect guy, to be honest with you.
But, I mean, unfortunately, I'm a Mets fan,
so I kind of like know how Pirates fans feel.
Until now, because now our new owner gets us pretty excited.
But you have to assume that the pirates did the wrong thing.
Oh, man.
I didn't know you were a Met fan, so that's good to know.
You see all the Yankee stuff behind me.
Jose Urania signed a one-year deal.
$3 million with the Detroit Tigers.
Anything to see here, Mike?
No, he's nothing more than a streamer to me.
He's more of a ground ball pitcher, not a lot of strikeout upside.
The sinker's really good, but besides that, he really has nothing much.
going for him. He's got no real chase pitch for himself, and he does sometimes struggle with
home runs. So moving to that ballpark isn't going to be great. So nothing to really look at there.
Gregory Polanco sustained a small non-displaced fracture in his right wrist. He's expected to avoid
surgery and be ready to resume baseball activities by the start of spring training. He was quite
bad in 2020, and he really hasn't been good. Gregory Palanco, this is, for quite some time now. So I don't really
know that there's much upside. I posted a video, I think, of him hitting a bomb in the Dominican
Winter League last week or two weeks ago. And it's like, I still want him to be a thing. I just,
it's probably not going to happen, Mike. Yeah, it's just too injury prone. It's a shame. I like
his skill set. He could be a 2020 player, but it just doesn't seem like he's ever going to get there.
Okay, admittedly, I knew nothing about this pitcher that the Rangers signed. So we're going to try and
piece this together and figure this out. The Rangers signed right-hand
pitcher Kohei Arihara to a two-year $6.2 million contract out of the Japan Pacific League.
He's 28 years old. He spent six seasons there with a cumulative 3.65 ERA, 1.19 whip, 666 strikeouts in 882 innings pitch.
So he is more of a controlled pitcher. Pitches to contact, doesn't really get many strikeouts.
His current NFBC ADP is 541.6. So he is a very late round target.
Do you know anything about this fella?
So when you sent it to me, I admittedly also did not know anything.
But I researched a little bit into him.
He's mainly a command guy.
He had a really low career walk rate of 5.3%.
He's got decent off speed stuff.
But a lot of people are afraid of that fastball because it doesn't have a lot of movement.
And they think that when he comes over to America with MLB hitting, he's going to have to just change his pitch mix because hitters are going to jump on that fastball all day.
So I mean, in terms of fans,
I feel like maybe in deep leagues or like NFBCDCs, maybe he'd be worth it because he's probably
going to get a good amount of innings. But besides that, I mean, it doesn't sound great.
Yeah, the fact that he just threw 132 and two thirds in 2020 probably bodes well for him,
at least being an innings eater because obviously everyone else in the majors this year was under
100 innings. So perhaps that's something that can help him and kind of projects as like a
four or five in the major league level. I found this quote,
from former major leaguer Frank Herman
who has played against Arihara
in the Japan Pacific League.
Quote, he's a big-bodied pitcher
with a slightly above-average fastball.
Two years ago, his split finger was a plus pitch
but he didn't use it nearly as much last season
when he featured an average change-up.
He holds his velocity 92 to 95 well.
Even as he gets over the 100 pitch mark,
he would benefit by pitching off his fastball more
as he tends to get unnecessarily off-speed heavy at times.
I think he projects as a four or five starter.
All right, yada, yada, yada.
So we'll monitor him early on in the season and in spring training.
And we'll see if there's anything there, but probably more as like a whatever.
You pick him up as a two-star pitch or maybe you stream him in the right matchups.
I do just want to remind everybody.
I've mentioned this before a few times on the podcast.
But if you're looking for a daily betting podcast, you should check out the early edge,
the newest member of the CBS Sports Podcast Network.
Every day you can join Jonathan Coachman and an expert crew of sports.
Sportsline handicappers to break down the biggest games of the day.
Every episode is 10 minutes or shorter and is in your feed by 11 a.m. Eastern Time.
If there's a sharp side to the action, you'll be armed with it.
Go check out the Early Edge podcast and just a few programming notes here on Fantasy Baseball today.
Starting next week and all of January, we'll have four podcasts for you per week.
Three of those will be with me, Scott, and Chris Towers.
and you'll hear those on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday each week.
And on Wednesdays, we'll still have Danny Vietti and Will Middlebrooks here on the podcast,
and they will have some great guests lined up.
I know they have Chris Rose coming on this week on Wednesday,
so that should be a lot of fun.
And they have Marcus Stroman for next week.
So that will be great as well.
They continue to get some really, really good guests.
And with that, I won't be here next week.
I need a little bit of a break between football and baseball,
before we really start to ramp things up here.
SP Streamer, that's your name, that's your moniker,
that's your website, that's your podcast, that's everything.
You're really good at streaming starting pitchers,
or at least you wrote so on Twitter,
I guess we're going to find out.
Your cumulative record streaming starting pitchers in 2020,
52 and 33,
a 3.91 ERA, a 1.26 whip,
9.1K per 9 and 433 and a third.
endings pitched, all the pitchers that you recommend are rostered in 30% or less.
So really, I just want to kind of pick your brain on the process that you use.
What are some of the tools that you use, whether they're basic stats, advanced stats.
Is it more the opponent rather than the pitcher himself?
Is it just like a combination of all those things?
So if you really just want to explain part of your process, all of your process,
however much you want to reveal, feel free to do so right now.
Sure. Yeah, I have no problem revealing all of it. You know, it's funny. I feel like a lot of people I ask me, do you think it's the pitcher or the opponent? And I kind of tend to lean more towards opponent as I do it more and more. But obviously, I look at both. When it comes to pitchers, I tend to look at the last 14 days because the last seven days is too small of a sample. And I like to look at their K walk rate. I want to see their velocity because sometimes when a pitcher's velocity,
starts rising, that can mean that they're starting to break out a little bit.
And obviously, velocity can mean everything, especially when it comes to a fastball.
I like to look at home away splits.
And then I also like to track their pitch mix because a lot of pitchers, they make these
pitch mix changes as the years go on.
And, you know, if they're going more towards their breaking balls and they're starting
to break out because of it, you know, these are little things that you could catch before, you
know, most people are, most owners or I guess,
you know, people who are in leagues could catch on to it.
And like maybe you can get to it before the ownership rises above that 30% mark.
So when it comes to the pitcher, I just kind of look at that stuff and, you know,
their arsenal and just try and see a, I guess, shift in their performance.
So with pitchers, I do that.
But when it comes to opponents, I think I look a lot more into them because I think a bad pitcher or a,
just decent pitcher can perform a lot better when he's facing a bad opponent
compared to vice versa.
So in my own research,
I found that when you're looking at opponents is actually best to look at the last seven days.
I like to look at the opponents WRC plus, swing strike percentage, OPS, WRC plus,
and strikeout rate as well as home away Wobah.
You know, this way you just get a good grasp on, you know,
which offenses are really hitting cold streaks and hot streaks.
and it's funny because literally all them do it.
You know, there are so many times where you're Yankees, you know, a great offense,
but there are times where they go, you know, their bottom five in the league for a while,
you know, same as the Astros, the Dodgers.
And it might sound crazy, but sometimes it's worth it to stream against them.
And it works out because they just can't hit at times.
So, you know, using the last seven days, it's just really good because you're catching those
trends and you can put out, you know, you could.
put up a okay pitcher who's owned under 30% against, you know, an offense that typically
could play as well, but is, you know, in a bit of a rut. And they'll pitch a lot better than
what they typically do. So I basically just look at those. I have a running chart that I threw out
every day. I did it every day last year at least. And just kind of showing people, you know,
every available streamer and every team they're facing and, you know, what their stats look like as of late.
And it's worked out pretty well.
I mean, the 391 ERA is better than I thought I'd ever get it, honestly, because league average is 4.50, which technically is a quality start.
And to get under that is pretty difficult, especially with the pitchers that I'm playing with.
You know, again, these are guys that are throwaways and no one really owns.
So, I mean, that's like the gist of the process.
It's a terrible answer to say this, but a lot of it, too, has to do with gut as well.
Like sometimes you just have a feeling and sometimes it works out.
So, I mean, that's pretty much the process.
Yeah, no, look, 3.91.
I mean, that is fantastic.
I'm looking at pictures that were in that range.
I mean, that's basically Lance McCullors over the course of a full season,
just streaming him and what, he's being drafted as a top 40-ish starting pitcher in that range.
So he had a 3.93 ERA last year.
That's pretty damn impressive.
So I don't know if it's, maybe I saw you post this before,
but I mean, throughout the season,
I have a million tabs open.
I'm telling you, I am, it's an issue.
I've posted, like, screenshots of my laptop before,
and people are like, what are you doing?
You have 30 tabs.
I just, it's an issue.
But three of those tabs in season are always
versus lefties,
verse righty splits,
and last 14 days.
So I've been using last 14 days.
days. Maybe, you know, I should start to use last seven days like, like you've used and maybe I'll
have more success. But you can find all of those pages over at fan graphs. If you sort by their
splits, I look at versus lefties versus righties. You mentioned using Wobah weighted on base
average, weighted runs, creative plus, swinging strike rates versus specific handedness, lefties, righties.
Do you look at like home road splits at all too while you're doing this? So it's really just,
I do. I don't put a lot into it unless, you know, the exception, of course.
but I find that it actually doesn't really matter as much as we'd think with these kinds of pitchers
because they're so low owned and it's for a reason. They're crazy erratic.
Yeah.
Like you can have one of these guys and they are in the perfect matchup and they'll get blown up.
It doesn't matter.
So it's really just making the best educated guess.
So I do look at Wobo Home Away.
I don't put a ton into it though personally.
As far as righty lefty, I actually really do look at.
at WRC plus and strikeout rate when it comes to that, though.
All right. So very nice to pick the brain here and figure out how one of the best streamers
out there gets it done. So hopefully people can use that for their in-season analysis as well.
Let's dive into some of these top 100 starting pitcher ranks, which you recently posted again
over at SPStreamer.com. I think the top three, everyone's going to have some order of CBD,
Cole Bieber de Grom. Not necessarily in that order, but again, it's probably a preference for
everybody. I really haven't seen anybody have a different pitcher inside their top three than those,
and I think rightfully so. I think it just makes sense to have those three in some order.
But really, pitcher ranks start at SP4 this year, Mike, and you have Luis Castillo as your
SP4, and I think the biggest argument against him is just the whip. I mean, he is a career
1.17 whip, and it's fluctuated a little bit. The walks have been an issue at times. But I
I think most people would say he can't be a top five pitcher because of the whip.
And to that, you would say, blank.
No.
No, I just, I get the whip argument.
I really do.
I think that he has above average.
See, the thing with Castillo is he has above average command.
It's just the way he likes to pitch is he'd rather throw it out of the zone and make you chase
than just throw a strike to throw a strike and end up, you know,
letting up a home run. So I really think the walk rate's going to slowly come down even more than what
it's been, which will lower that whip a little bit. I don't think he'll ever be having an elite
whip under one, but I do think the strikeout rate is still going to rise. And I think that
ERA is going to come down even more. And I think he could put up a sub three ERA, which will still
propel him into, you know, an elite pitcher. I just really love his stuff too. You know, his is
he has the best change up in the league, in my opinion.
And he utilizes all four of his pitches really well.
They all produce above average movement.
And he basically hits everything you want to pitcher.
He uses a sinker to get strikes at will whenever he wants, and it induces weak contact.
The slider in the four seam gets some whiffs in the zone, which is great.
And then he has what I mentioned, the change up to induce, you know, a lot of swing
and misses outside of the zone and get these hitters to chase.
So I just feel like he is in complete control of what he does.
And I think it's just a matter of him finally being able to put it all together.
The only thing that I think could hold him back is that defense,
the defense is atrocious.
I watched a lot of his starts.
And there was a lot of like ridiculous slow ground balls in the infield.
And, you know, the second baseman just wasn't getting to in time.
And like it was infield hit after infield hit.
So that's the only thing that could potential.
back. But overall, again, I love the stuff. And with my pitchers, I love pitchers who can induce a lot,
a lot of strikeouts and induce a lot of weak contact. And in the past two seasons, he has a 29.4
strikeout rate, which I think is going to go over 30. And he also has a 56.1% ground ball rate,
which is absurd. Not a lot of pitchers can do that. The only other ones that I really see do it are
Sunny Gray, Steven Schrasberg, and Brandon Woodruff.
They're the only ones who really can do that as well.
And I just love that in my pitchers because you know they're not laying out fly balls.
They're not going to be prone to the home runs, which a lot of pitchers are.
So I just feel like he has a really high floor and the ceiling is right there to be a top three as well.
I think the biggest thing that you hit on there is if he puts it all together.
because I think if he does,
then you could get that top five starting pitcher season.
And what I mean by that is you've seen bits and pieces
where in 2019 the BABIP was really low.
It was at 262, but the walk rate was high.
This past season, he lowered the walk rate,
but the BABIP went up to 329,
which is probably what you're talking about
when he's inducing all these soft-tick ground balls
and they're just not resulting in outs.
So it seems like he was bad,
he was just suffered from some bad luck in that regard.
For his career, he's a 275 Babbup guy.
This season it was 329.
So if he keeps that walk rate down, keeps the strikeouts up,
the Babbib is around where it's been for his career.
He also improved his velocity as if he even needed to do it.
He went from 96 to 97 miles per hour with his fastball.
The velocity on the change-up and the slider also went up a tick.
So, yeah, I think if he just puts it all together,
I mean, the guy has some of the best stuff in the league to be a top five starting pitcher.
So I actually have him at SP6.
I'm not far off of you.
I like him in this range.
I'm not going to argue against it.
The person who I recently moved up to SP4
just ahead of you, Darvish.
So I have it, Nola SP4,
I have Darvish at 5,
and then I have Luis Castillo at 6.
But Nola is someone that it seems like you like him as well
because you have him one spot behind Luis Castillo.
And before I tell you why I like him,
and I've mentioned it already on this,
not this specific podcast, but other podcasts.
Why?
Why do you like Aaron
Arnold, why do you have him inside that top five?
It's real simple with me with him.
You know, again, another guy who has great commands.
He gets a ton of cold strikes, which is fine because he's very consistent with it.
He has an amazing curveball.
And another guy who also can induce the weak contact.
But not only that, he stays healthy.
He's had how many seasons in a row now, 200 innings pitched?
And I just think, you know, I've somewhat.
of a Nola lover.
Like, I've always had him higher than people typically do.
And that's just because, again, I just feel like he has complete command of what he does.
And I really love my pitchers to be able to control, you know, what they want to do at will.
It limits the floor.
And I think Nola presents that, especially now being one of those rare workhorse type pitchers.
Yeah, so he pitched 71 and a third this past season, obviously, because that's all he could have done.
done, but the previous two years, he was up over 200 endings in each of those seasons in 2018 and
2019, respectively. You mentioned he has a great curveball. I really like the Arsenal change that he
had this past season, career high, 27% changeup usage for Aranola that was never higher than
19.6% before. And it really just seemed like it unlocked everything else. Like that change up,
becoming that third pitch for him, it helped his curveball play up. He really does not have a good
fastball, like it's adequate. But I think in conjunction with like two other plus pitch,
which is he can really just get to a next level.
And we saw that this season, all he has to do is get the walks down a little bit.
He was at 2.9, 0 walks per 9 this past season.
But it was just the final three stars.
I think his first, it would have been first nine starts.
He was at 2.08 walks per 9.
So, I mean, that would just be fantastic if he can keep it in that range for Aranola.
Someone you already mentioned here on this list.
Brandon Woodruff is someone that you like a lot.
You have him as your SP10.
and one spot ahead of Max Scherzer,
who you wrote out in big red letters on your ranking.
So we're going to talk about him as well.
But the Woodruff love, I have him at SP15.
I was trying to figure out, well, man,
does he need to get better to pay off this rent?
And probably not,
if he just kind of does what he's done
over the past two seasons.
So, I mean, why are you so aggressive with him at SP10?
Yeah, that's exactly my thinking.
I think I started off with him around 15 as well.
But as you look into him and his numbers,
there's not a lot of holes.
I actually wasn't big on him coming into 2020
because he really has two elite fastballs
and there was nothing else there.
I was looking to see something else come forward,
whether it was the changeup of the slider.
And it ended up being the changeup.
You know, it's 10 miles an hour slower,
which makes it really hard for hitters, you know,
to go against that versus four seamen sinker.
And the changeup really started to produce with for him
what he needed.
the fastball, the four seams above average, the sinker induces the weak contact.
And not only that, he's slowly becoming a workhorse himself.
He was seventh innings pitched, and he was top 30 in pitches per start.
So you know he's going to stay deep into the games and produce those endings,
which you're going to need, especially coming into this season where it's a pretty big
question mark for a lot of pitchers.
So again, not a lot of holes.
He did what I wanted him to do.
he's got three really solid pitches. And if he happens to work on that slider, then it turns into four really good pitches. And then it's just like, I don't know how anyone's going to stop him. So I just think he's a budding star. And I, without a doubt, think he's going to end up being top 10. And I remember talking about him down the stretch this past season. And even after the season end, I said, he's just rock solid, man. Like you wouldn't expect him to be as good as he is. But his last 32 starts 10.7K per nine. And I remember, he's just rock. He's just rock solid. And he's just rock solid. He said, he's just rock solid. He's. He's. He's. He's
2.2 walks per 9.
This past season, the control,
two walks or less in 11 of 13 starts,
a 24.9% K-minus walk percentage.
That was 9th among qualified starting pitchers.
Woodruff is a really, really good control pitcher,
and he generates a good amount of strikeouts as well,
so I don't really know what's not to like,
and I'm kind of talking myself into moving him up as well.
So I'm going to look into doing that over the next couple of days.
Stackass really likes him too.
Woodruff does a really good job of limiting hard contact.
So really, really interesting.
Right in the prime age of his career, 28 years old at the start of 2021.
Pretty excited about Brandon Woodruff as well.
Max Scherzer, you have one spot behind him as your SP 11.
And I've already, I don't want to say that he's just on my do not draft list
because, I mean, there's a price for anybody.
If he falls to like, whatever, the late third or early fourth round of a 12-team league,
sure, I'll take Max Scherzer, but you're never going to get.
get him there. Why do you have him in the big red letters, Mike?
Yeah, I just think he's, you know, standing on the top of the cliff and it's just a matter
of time of him, you know, falling off being one of those top 10 type of pitchers. And it's just
because he's mostly been healthy, but he's seen a couple of aisle stints as of late. You know,
the back issues, any back problem's never good. I mean, look at Kershaw. He's a great pitcher,
but every year it seems to come up and he always ends up going on the IL.
You know, even this year he pitched well, but then as playoffs approached,
I think he couldn't pitch in the playoffs of our call correctly.
But yeah, so at age 35, with back issues,
I'm not willing to spend that kind of price on him.
And as the SP1, for me personally, when I'm drafting,
I want my SP1 and SP2 to have as little risk as possible.
and he comes with a lot of risk.
And that's why Adam has read,
because if,
you know,
say he only ends up pitching 120 innings,
you know,
he's going to definitely fall down in the tears.
And,
you know,
coming into 2022,
he's not going to be looked at
as a top,
you know,
10, 15 pitcher anymore.
And outside of that,
like,
those are all fair concerns.
Specifically,
I mean,
the neck,
the back thing that he dealt with
back in,
the World Series couldn't get out of bed or whatever,
stiff neck, he couldn't even pitch.
There are some actual
on-field concerns with him that I have noticed.
His batting average and babb have been
on the rise for each of the past two seasons
with correlated with two of the highest hard hit
rates of his career.
Walks per 9 over 3, that was his highest since
2010 this past season. Obviously a shortened
season, so you don't want to put too much into it.
And a 14.7% swinging strike rate,
mind you, is still really, really good
compared to other starting pitchers,
but it was his lowest since 2014.
His 4.21 expected ERA, according to Stackcast,
was also not exciting.
So I think we're starting to see signs of him slipping performance-wise,
and of course you have that age concern and injury risk as well.
So I'm pretty close to a do not draft on Max Scherzer.
You brought up Kersh.
I'll just ask you this real quick.
I recently started up a draft champion,
15 team, Roto, and my first three pitchers,
Jack Flarity, Clayton Kershaw, and Carlos Carrasco.
Is that too much risk?
For me, yeah.
I do love, I do love Carrasco.
And he's weird.
He's tough to figure out because he was injury prone,
then finally pitched well for two seasons,
and then obviously, of course, unfortunately,
got cancer, but then pitched well all season, last season.
And so, but he's getting up there in age.
So it's like, is he going to end up becoming injury prone again?
I don't know.
The thing with Crasco, I like, is I don't doubt the skill set.
I think he's great.
But yeah, for me, pairing him and Kershaw is a little risky for me.
It's a little scary.
It's definitely a little scary.
You might want to make sure you back that up with some solid innings eaters later on.
Oh, man.
Actually, I have this draft pull up here.
I can tell you who I drafted, but whatever.
Who cares about my team?
It doesn't matter.
All right, let's, you know, the person I was debating taking over Carrasco at the time,
and it probably would have made sense based on, you know, pairing him and Kirschau together.
You want a little bit more safety in terms of innings is Zach Pleseasek.
Let's jump around the rankings a little bit because you have Zach Plesek at SP21.
You have Carlos Carrasco two spots higher.
So I don't know exactly how you do your ranks, Mike, but for me, I basically just rank them based on who I would draft.
Like, if they were just both on the board, who would I draft?
And I do have Carrasco higher than Pleseck, so that's why I took Carasco.
and Pleseck seems to be a bit polarizing, obviously because what he did was only eight starts.
So it's a super small sample size, but in those starts, like he made tangible changes.
The command was awesome.
You know, the slider and change of looked ridiculous.
Are you a believer in Zach Pleseck?
So I'm a believer, and I actually really dove into him this offseason.
And what's interesting about him is coming into 2020,
He was working with the pitching coach over there in Cleveland.
I can't remember his name off the top of my head.
And what he really focused on was his delivery and his balance.
And he found that he wasn't mimicking the same delivery over and over again.
That's what was throwing off his command.
So they worked on that.
And obviously it paid off dividends because that walk rate dropped tremendously.
And it's an elite level.
And then not only that, he changed his pitch mix.
He went to the breaking stuff more.
and he's got two good breaking balls in his slider and his changeup.
And the slider might be one of the best pitches in the league.
It put up a negative 44 WRC plus against and a 24.1 swing strike and a 42 point swing,
O swing. The pitch literally does everything.
And then not only that, on top of that, also, Pleasak is probably going to get you a ton of
innings. He pitched deeper in the games more than anyone.
He had the highest innings pitch per game in the entire.
league. So I think he's going to get you a lot of counting stats, even if he ends up putting up,
you know, potentially just let's just say like a three, five ERA, which is still good, but not where,
you know, you want more than that where you draft him. Even if he ends up doing that, he's still
going to be highly ranked because it's going to be Baueresque where he's going to pitch deep.
He's going to stay healthy. He's young. He's going to put up a lot of innings, which means a lot more
counting stats in strikeout. So I think he's going to definitely do well.
It depends where people are taking him, though, because I have heard people really reaching on him.
Like, you know, I've heard second round potentially in some drafts, which is a little crazy.
Stop. In what, 30 team leagues?
There's just certain people I know out there that really, you know, I really in love with him.
But yeah, I think he's going to be great.
I don't see a lot of flaws.
I like everything about him.
It's just a matter of, you know, how far.
do you have to reach for him.
All right. So the ADP right now is 59.6.
I will limit this to just December to see if it's gone up at the NFBC.
And for PSEC, it's at 60.3.
So that's in a 12-team league, that's the 5-6 turn.
Would you be all right taking him there as,
I don't know how aggressive you are, but maybe as like your SP3?
Yeah, I would gladly take him as my SP3.
In that way.
I like where he's, I'm okay with that 80s.
here right now. Okay. Yeah, and the point that you made about him going deep into his starts,
at least six innings in all eight of his starts. And we know that that correlates well with
wins. The deeper you go into a start, the more likely you are to get a win. I don't know what
his run support is going to look like if they trade Francisco Indoor. But that's a conversation
for another day, when if that happens. All right, so we're going to take a quick break.
When we return, I have a few other pictures I want to ask you about. You mentioned Sonny Gray,
pick your brain on him a little bit, Ken Tamayeda, a couple of guys later on. And
as well, we'll do that here, fantasy baseball today.
Before we get back to the pitchers, if you're watching us on YouTube, Mike,
I noticed that you have an arcade game behind you over there.
What's going on over there? What is that?
That is Mortal Kombat.
Mortal Kombat. Which Mortal Kombat is it?
It is 1-2 and 3.
1-2-3.
You ever, I can't remember the website.
There's a website. It sells all kinds of them.
And it's not too much. It's like 350 apiece.
That's not bad.
Yeah.
I should have had you on before Christmas, man.
Oh man.
So I love Mortal Kombat.
I grew up playing it as well,
but I am so bad at fighting games.
I will openly admit it.
I'm quite bad at them.
It's a lot harder than I remember.
It really is.
All right, Sunny Gray,
you mentioned you really like him.
You have him up at SP 14,
one spot ahead of Walker Bueller.
Sunny Gray, he's kind of a hard one for me to figure out.
He's currently SP 22 and ADP.
I have him at SP 26,
but not really with much conviction.
So if you can convince me on Sunny Gray,
I would be willing to move him up.
I just, I look at his seasonal log,
and he's just all over the place year after year.
I guess he's been a little bit more consistent
the past two seasons in Cincinnati,
but it just seems like there's a little bit too much volatility
to be ranked that high, at least inside the top 15.
So tell me why.
Tell me why you like Sunny Gray as much as you do.
Yeah, with him it's more so four for me.
I just, I think he's really solid.
I know, like you said, the whole Yankee thing was a mess,
and maybe that's why you're a little biased over there.
But between 2019 and 2020 combined,
he has a 3.07 ERA with a 3.33 FIP,
which means it's probably going to stick.
I mean, that, you know, he basically performed as well as he should have.
And that 3.07 era is great.
The thing I like most about him is how deep his arsenal is.
He knows how to utilize every pitch really well.
again, another pitcher who seems to be really in command of his stuff.
The slider is lethal and induces a lot of whiffs, but what's ridiculous is his curveball,
basically nobody can hit it.
And when they do hit it, it is extremely weak contact.
Like, no one can really make hard contact with it.
So I just think the way his arsenal is built and how he really utilizes four pitches
pretty evenly, it works really well because if one isn't working, he still has three
great pitches to fall back into.
And not only that, he could really work towards, you know,
individual batters, weaknesses as well.
You know, if a pitcher, I mean, if a hitter can't hit a curveball, he, you know,
he could utilize that as well as a slider, the fastball.
So I just think he hits every mark and I think he's extremely safe.
And he seems to be underrated every year.
So me personally, I would gladly take him as a top 15 starter.
And that's just basically because everything he brings to the.
table how solid he is and how there's just not a lot of question marks when it comes to his
repertoire. And I did notice his first seven starts of 2020, he was awesome still. He had a 1.94 ERA.
Two bad starts, right? Yeah. So he had two blowups. He went on the IA with a back injury.
He came back for like his final two starts and during that span, those final four starts of the season.
He had an 8.79 ERA with a 3.79 X-FIP. So I mean, do with that what you will. He also had
like seven walks per nine during that span,
which is obviously something he's not going to maintain.
So I probably need to move him up as well.
I think he probably,
I don't think that he's going to come close to like a sub three ERA again.
If I'm projecting him,
I would probably say like a three five or three six ERA
with a one one five whip,
something in that range with over a strikeout per inning,
which is still a really good pitcher.
It's just I don't think he's as good as he was,
I guess, in 2019, if that makes sense.
Yeah, I'm definitely high,
him, I think for me, it's a matter of the people I have below him that I just don't trust as much.
Kind of like a Walker Beeler.
Yes, yes.
Which I'm afraid to admit.
Tell me about it.
Because I got absolutely killed on Twitter for my ranking of him.
Yeah.
Well, Scott and I are both down on Walker Bueller, too.
Is it just a workload thing?
Are you just concerned about, I mean, he dealt with the blisters this year?
But then he goes out in the postseason with his tight pants on and he's starting 99, 100 miles
per hour and just look ridiculously good.
So it's, I don't ever want to doubt the talent, but it's like the situation is not worth
using a top 20 pick on Bueller, in my opinion.
Exactly.
His, um, his skill set's amazing.
I love him.
I think he is going to be great for a really long time.
My issue is kind of like what you said is the workload.
And, you know, in terms of long day rest, so pitchers not starting every five days,
top of the list, like all these three are in the top 15 is Dustin May, Eureas,
Kirschall, and Bueller.
Four Dodgers pitchers are in the top 15 for the most days where they didn't pitch on a normal
like five-day rest.
So that's just going to limit the innings.
Do I think he can go 180?
Yes, because while he didn't pitch a lot in the regular season, he did pitch a lot in
the postseason.
So he pretty much pitch as much as most pitchers.
But I just think they limit their pitchers.
way too much.
You know, they might go to six men from time to time.
They might give them random breaks and rests because we all know they're going to be good.
They're going to be dominant.
They're going to want to save their pitchers for the playoffs because it's all they care about is winning titles, which makes complete sense.
And they know they're going to get there.
And they have the depth to do it.
So I wouldn't be shocked if he only ends up pitching 150 innings, which hurts his value.
Yeah.
And look, we're seeing this across all sports, too.
It's not just baseball.
I mean, you have to take this stuff into account.
I mean, if you play into Week 17 in fantasy football, which you should not do.
That's a terrible idea.
Or, I mean, later on in like a seasonal fantasy basketball league, I mean, teams lock stuff up
and they lock up their playoff seating or whatever, and then they start wrestling players too.
So, I mean, it's not just baseball, but it makes sense for the Dodgers considering what they want to do,
and that's ultimately win a World Series.
Kenza Maeda, just want to quickly ask you about him.
You have him down at SP17 in the red letters as well.
and he just finished the top five pitcher in both head-to-head points and Roto Leagues.
What is your biggest concern with Kentomeda?
Yeah, so I love him as a pitcher.
I think he's great.
There's one issue that I am finding with him this off-season,
and it's the slider.
He made a pitchman exchange, and he went to the slider more,
and the slider performed great.
But here's the problem with it is, of all starters,
he had the second highest percentage in leaving his slider in the middle of the zone.
is that 31.8%.
And when he left it in the middle of the zone, opposing hitters had a 0.524 ice zone,
and 0.456 Woba against the pitch, which compared to other fastball, I mean,
other sliders being left in the zone is still astronomically high.
Like, for instance, I know we're going to talk about him later, but like DeNielsen
Lomette, who also has a really good slider.
When he left his in the middle of the zone, he still had like a sub two, you know,
Wobah against that, basically.
So you're taking a pitch that he throws more than any other pitch
And he up the usage of it this year and he leaves it over the zone way too often
So I'm a little curious as to will that catch up with him in a entire season
Which are very well could and if you look at his 2020 season by month
The second month his Wobicon and brow rate both went up a little bit
And I'm a little I'm just a little hesitant that that
might end up hurting him in the long run.
So that's what scares me about my AEDA.
Besides that, I love everything about him.
It's just that one little flaw that makes me a little worried about him.
And you have to wonder, he had one of the most favorable schedules this season.
So is that something where once teams start to face him a second, a third, a fourth time within a division, or just facing stronger competition?
You know, if he's leading a slider in the middle of the zone, do those teams start to do more damage?
So, I mean, it is something that you do kind of have to take into account.
I wonder if maybe he should just throw it out of the zone more
because he did just have a 40.8% O'Swing chase rate.
I mean, that's just, it was a career high, and that's just amazing.
I would venture to say it's probably top five among qualified pitchers,
but I didn't look that up beforehand.
So he could probably just throw it out of the zone more and...
Yeah, he probably should.
We'll just leave it at that.
After Kenton Maida, you mentioned Nelson Lemette.
So, look, you have Strasbourg and Nelson Lamet,
I'm pretty sure I've seen you go on a rant about this on Twitter.
Like, you're just not going to draft to Nelson Lament, no matter what happens, basically.
Correct.
Tell me more.
I will not.
I technically, but it would be outrage.
I wanted to just leave him off my top 100.
So he's basically a ticking time bomb, right?
That's what you think is going to happen.
So here's what I found with him.
He's really a one pitch, pitch, period.
The slider is great.
And there's no doubt bad.
It's probably one of, if not the best pitch in the entire league.
but my issue is the fastball.
It wasn't good last season and it was good this season,
but that's because he raised the velocity on it,
which is great you want to see.
But the problem is,
is he clearly was pushing it in a shortened season.
And if you really watch,
if you look at his game logs based on velocity,
it really starts to,
you know, his fast ball velocity starts to kind of tank.
And as it's tanking,
he decides the two,
like the,
last two of the last three games in the season, he decides to push it again.
And that's what causes injury.
He ended up getting injured after you started pushing the velocity up again.
That led to an elbow injury, which led to PRP injections, which typically leads to Tommy
John doesn't typically work.
The only exception, exception really is Tanaka.
So one, I feel like Tommy John could be coming any minute.
And two, I don't think he's going to be able to push that fastball velocity.
anymore and it's going to go back to what it was last in 2019 and what happened in 2019 you get
great games where he pitches great but you also get games where he gets blown up he kind of becomes
a Robbie Ray and you're looking at a high strikeout pitcher with like a four year right well said I can't
really argue against I mean it's the injury is more than anything with me but yeah he threw his slider
53% of the time that was by far the most among starting pitchers like kershaw was second at 40%
I mean, Denelson Lament threw it over 50% of the time.
It's just, that is crazy.
And if, you know, the fastball regresses even a little bit, then, yeah,
he's probably just going to regress in general.
But I do just want to wrap up with Tyler Malley,
I notice you have at SP 47, and I know he changed his pitch mix as well.
So if you want to talk about him and really any other late round starting pitchers
that you're targeting or excited about higher than consensus,
then feel free to tell us.
Yeah.
So with Malley,
he's always had stellar command.
He has like some of the best command in the league.
And his fastball has always been really good.
He places it high in the zone at a consistent rate, I think more than anyone really.
And it's just a fabulous pitch overall.
And we really were waiting for him to get a basically develop a breaking ball on that.
And the slider finally came to fruition.
And it's a really good pitch.
So now while he is still just a two pitch pitcher with a plus fastball plus slider,
I think he's definitely going to overperform his ADP.
He also has a splitter that is pretty decent.
And I think if he could use it on occasion and get that to now take a step forward and maybe get a little feel for that, then he becomes a three pitch pitcher.
And then he really, you know, gives you a lot of profit on draft day.
So I do like him coming into this season just because of that potential and plus the lead command, which he has shown us in the past.
as far as another late round starting pitcher,
I'm just going to throw out John Means.
Basically what happened with Means last season,
his fastball,
he was leaving in the zone a lot and right over the heart of the plate.
And that was mainly because I think he was trying to push his velocity up too much.
And what we ended up seeing was the past,
I think three or four starts.
He actually slowed it down.
And while that's typically not good,
it was for him because he's able to have better commands.
and if you look at his charts, he actually placed it up in the zone a lot more when he started doing that.
And that led to off the top of my head, I think it was like three straight starts with eight strikeouts or more.
So pair that with the great change up and he's going really late in drafts.
I feel like he's a no-brainer and provides you a lot of upside.
By the time people are drafting in March, he will not be a late round starting pitcher because probably not.
Between you and we had Alex Fast on recently, and he was talking of John Means.
I've talked to Fast about it before, yeah.
Scott White loves him as well.
I wrote about him, like, just after the season ended.
He's someone who just underperformed his peripheral stats, too.
So it seems like everyone's on board with John Means.
And for a good reason, as you mentioned.
All right, so guys, everyone listening, guys and girls, make sure that you follow Mike's work over at spStreamer.com.
He also writes for Fangraphs and FantasyP.
Proes. You can listen to them,
SP Streamer Fantasy Baseball podcast,
and follow them on Twitter at SPStreamer.
Mike, thank you so much for coming on.
Before we let you go,
who's your character in Mortal Kombat?
Scorpion.
Yeah.
That's the chalk, right?
I mean, you got to go with Scorpion.
I even have a little Funko pop of them.
Hey, all right.
Dude, I have a whole closet filled up with Funkos.
That's another conversation.
Oh, geez.
I went a little bit crazy and started collecting too many of them at some point.
Is it terrible that I refuse to leave them in the box? I take them all out.
That's probably what you're supposed to do, but I was collecting them to resell them,
so they're all still in the box. All right, whatever. If anyone else has funcos out there,
make sure to let us know about them. Mike, is there anything else you'd like to promote while you're here?
I mean, the only really thing I are coming up is I have a draft kit that I release every year.
I do it. It's just PDF. I do it pretty cheap. It's going to be like $3.50 this year. It's all rankings. I got a couple people join in to do prospect rankings, closer rankings. I brought on, I brought on Mike Colerner's new heading, who I know you had on the podcast a couple weeks ago, I think, right? Yep. I have, I'm so better pronouncing last names. I've Shelley Verstreet doing prospects. And I brought on actually.
Dave McDonald, who's a big high-stakes player,
he's going to be doing the whole strategy section
and Chris Clegg doing relief pitching.
So it's going to be awesome.
It's going to be massive.
And that is going to go,
I'm going to take pre-orders starting January 1st.
All right, everyone, make sure to check it out.
And if you want to read about Zach, please, Sack.
I know Dave loves him, so he'll probably write about him at some point as well.
For Mike, I am Frank.
They go off from listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today.
We'll be back again tomorrow.
Bye-bye.
