Fantasy Baseball Today - Sonny Gray Traded to the Red Sox! (11/25 Fantasy Baseball podcast)
Episode Date: November 25, 2025Sonny Gray has been traded to the Red Sox for Richard Fitts and pitching prospect Brandon Clarke! ... What's the early ADP for Gray? ... Can Gray perform in a big market? ... What does the return look... like for the Cardinals? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Sunny Gray was traded over to the Boston Red Sox.
Let's break it down on Fantasy Baseball Today Express.
Welcome into FBT Express on Tuesday, November 25th.
I am Frank Stamphill joined by Chris Towers.
Chris, we got another trade.
Sunny Gray was shipped over to the Red Sox in exchange for Richard Fitz
and left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clark.
The Cardinals also sent over $20 million to help cover the final year of the contract there
with Sunny Gray.
I guess also kind of helped with them get a better return,
I guess theoretically in this deal.
But let's just start with Sunny Gray,
who is now 36 years old.
And he's kind of a tough evaluation, man.
I was looking into his numbers beforehand,
and he's kind of a tough one for me.
We'll find out if you feel the same.
But the skills have been elite the past two seasons.
His fastball velocity is declining.
But when he gets hit,
he tends to get hit really hard.
What do you think about Sunny Gray?
in Boston?
I think he's fine.
I think he's fine for the Red Sox.
I think he's fine for fantasy.
I think he's probably better
than the 428 ERA
that he posted last season.
But it is worth noting
that from a fantasy perspective,
this is a guy that despite getting a lot of
strikeouts and being really helpful there,
and I think he won 14 games.
He was pretty valuable in that regard.
He was pretty actively harmful
to both your ratios.
Your ERA and your whip is a 123.
whip 428 ERA like I said and you know some of those ERA estimators FIPP Sierra
they're all in like the 330 range 340 range a lot of those assume that quality of
contact is relatively stable across pitchers and in Sunny Gray's case his quality of
contact has been pretty awful two years in a row now you see the declining fastball
velocity, that pitch gets hit really, really hard.
I don't necessarily think this is a case where you can look at the FIP, the Sierra, et cetera, and say, yeah, this guy's a low 3 ZERA pitcher.
I think it's going to be closer to four, but with a good team backing him up and a good defense, and there will be stretches of absolute brilliance.
We see that every year with Sunny Gray, and then there will be these blowups where he gives a lot of it back and messes with Eurasia.
I think that's probably just who he is.
He's 36 years old.
Fastball velocity was down about a mile per hour last year.
He has to rely really heavily on his breaking balls.
And look, the Red Sox have a recent but well-earned reputation for maximizing a lot of their starting pitchers.
And I don't necessarily know if Sonny Gray is a candidate for that, though.
This is already a guy with a huge arsenal, like eight different pitches.
He doesn't throw on anything more than 22% of the time.
There might be some wrinkles or some tweaks that they can make,
but I think this is very much a what you see is what you get situation with Sunny Gray.
And what you see is a solid but not hugely impactful pitcher.
One thing I think the Red Sox could do with the pitch mix here is maybe lower the fastball usage
or somehow work with him to get a little bit of velocity back because again,
that fastball got crushed this past season.
370 batting average against with a.
585 slug.
So again, it's either move away from it
or find a way to get that fastball
back to respectability for Sunny Gray.
You brought up the ERA estimators,
the skills this past season
among qualified starting pitcher.
Gray ranked seventh in K-minus walk rate,
sixth in Sierra.
But again, I think we're, like,
don't overthink those things.
His ERA, the past two seasons,
has been 384 and 428 respectively.
So I agree.
I think it's probably a higher,
you know, higher threes ERA.
maybe it's like a 115 whip.
Over 200 strikeouts, two seasons in a row.
That is very valuable.
So point that out there for Sunny Gray.
Rock solid like number four SP for your fantasy team.
Yeah.
That's where the early ADP is too.
I mean, it's 142.
He's going just ahead of Gavin Williams,
Trey O Savage, Luis Castillo, Ryan Pepio.
What do you think about that cost?
It sounds fine to me.
I have him 48th at starting pitcher,
but that does include
names with similar upside and downside like McKenzie Gorn and Nick Lodolo.
I think you could even throw Shane Bieber and Gavin Williams in there,
but also some of those like breakout hypey pitchers like Nolan McLean and Jekyllisorowski
and Cameron Schlittler are all ahead of him.
But the likelier outcome is Gray is more useful than at least some of those guys.
It's just I don't think he has the upside of some of the other guys we're chasing.
So it's a pitcher I think you fall back on rather than one you make a big priority of targeting.
And that's why when I look at this from a real life perspective, you know, I know Craig Breslo was quoted as saying, you know, we want to, we're looking for a number two starting pitcher.
I think they still might be.
You know, this is a team with a good list of prospects, a good farm system, you know, that they've got multiple redundancies in the,
lineup, this team still feels like they could take a big swing.
Joe Ryan. Whether it's, whether it's Joe Ryan, whether it's Terrick Scoobble, if they
really want to take a big swing, I still think the Red Sox probably make one more
addition to their pitching staff because outside of Garrett Crochet, I think they're still
lacking impact arms right now. All right, let's take a quick break and we'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in the FBT Express. We're breaking down. Sunny Gray getting traded over to
to the Boston Red Sox.
I did just have one other question to ask regarding this, Chris,
and it's not really statistically based
or anything like that.
It's more so, you know, just something that I've noticed in the past
that Sunny Gray has dealt with.
His only other time pitching in a big market
was with the New York Yankees.
And, of course, that season did not go very well.
It was a 490 ERA and a 150 whip over a full season.
Now he gets traded to the Boston Red Sox,
obviously big market, huge expectations.
He has not pitched well in Fenway in his career, and it also is just a park and division downgrade.
Do any of those things factor into your decision to rank or, I guess, want to draft Sunny Gray next season?
Yeah, I'm trying to remember specifically what there was, Sunny Gray spoke openly about his time with the Yankees and what went wrong.
And it seemed to be a philosophical difference between him and the organization.
I want to say they were trying to.
trying to have him throw more secondaries at the time than he was comfortable with and it kind of screwed him up.
I can't remember the specifics of it, but I think that was more of a philosophical difference between him and the organization about what was best for him.
I don't really worry too much about the big market thing.
Fenway obviously can be a tough place to pitch.
It's actually not a bad park for home runs, but it boosts Babbup and batting average a lot.
So I think there's some risk here.
He's 36 years old, so there's risk that there's just a big drop off coming,
even if the skills indicators are still pretty bullish on him.
But I don't have too much concerns about the specific move for Sunny Gray to Fenway Park.
Last question regarding the Red Sox here.
Their updated rotation, which again could change if they go out and make another trade,
which is possible.
They have Garrett Crochet, Sunny Gray, Brian Beow.
the rest seems pretty open.
Roster resource has Cutter Crawford and Patrick Sand of all in there,
but we do know that they have two pitching prospects that debuted late last season,
Connolly Early, and Peyton Tolly.
Do you think this affects the chances that those guys are in the rotation
to start the season, the prospects in the Red Sox rotation?
I think it probably does.
It gives them another answer at starting pitcher.
But I think it's just going to come down to
they might as well see what they have in Cutter Crawford
and especially Patrick Sandoval
who they signed coming off Tommy John's surgery.
I think he was rehabbing all this season.
Because those guys are older,
because they're later in their careers,
they have a little more flexibility
with what they do with Peyton Tolly and Connolly early.
So I would guess,
barring really, really good spring trainings
from the young guys and really bad ones from the veterans,
I would guess they just opt to send those guys down
just to keep that.
flexibility and see if sandoval or cutter crawford can you know crawford get back to what he was prior to all
the injuries last season sand of all was always kind of disappointing but there was some upside there
so see what you have in those guys for a month or two and and then we'll we'll probably see connolly early
and payton totally i would guess in that order given how they pitched at the end of last season
yeah i think so too uh connolly early actually got a start in the playoffs and looks pretty good
until, you know, things kind of came apart there.
But I think definitely names that need to be on our radar for next season, both Connolly Early and Peyton Toley.
Let's wrap up with a quick look at the return that the Cardinals got here.
They are in desperate need of rotation help.
Honestly, they were even before trading away Sunny Gray.
So it's pretty dire in the St. Louis rotation right now.
Richard Fitz, he's shown some flashes, but obviously the numbers have not really given us much so far for fantasy.
Brandon Clark, a left-handed pitching prospect
who looks like he's pretty far away.
He's 22 years old, but he hasn't pitched above high A yet.
This is probably good news for Quinn Matthews
and or Tink Hens, but those guys have dealt with injuries
and underperformance.
What do you think about the return here?
What do you think about the Cardinals' rotation?
Do you like any of these guys as sleepers for next season?
It feels a little light as a return for a pitcher like Sunny Gray,
but then you remember that he's only got one year left.
He's old.
They had to take on or give up money in order to get this return.
Clark is a really interesting pitcher with a lot of talent,
but really bad control.
He's a little older for a guy who hasn't pitched very much.
I think he only got like 38 innings last season across 11 starts,
or 14 starts total between the two levels of A ball.
So Clark,
a name in deeper dynasty leagues, but not someone who is likely to make much of an impact for fantasy in 2025.
And Fitz, I think, is another Andre Palante or Michael McGreevy.
The Cardinals have a lot of these guys who are probably major leaguers, but probably aren't very good.
Like back end of rotation guys or rotation depth guys.
And what they really need is some difference makers.
And maybe Tink Hents can be that.
Maybe Quinn Matthews can be that.
that I liked Quinn Matthews a lot coming into this season.
He dealt with a shoulder injury in spring training that seemed to just wreck his season.
His walk rate was, I think, six per nine last year.
So I expect we'll see Quinn Matthews early on in 2026, possibly in the opening day rotation,
if he has a good spring training.
But not a guarantee.
And obviously, the shines worn off a little bit after last season.
Tink Hans, he hasn't pitched in AAA yet.
So I think they need to see him there.
before they call them up.
Still a couple of really interesting, talented pitchers,
but not guys you should expect to make an impact early on in 2026.
All right, let's wrap it there.
It sounds like someone's trying to call Chris,
so he can return that phone call for more extensive fantasy baseball coverage
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Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express,
and we will be back again tomorrow.
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podcasts.