Fantasy Baseball Today - Spring Training Believe It Or Not! (2/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: February 25, 2026Frank Stampfl and Chris Towers play a little spring training Believe It or Not on storylines including Brandon Woodruff, Griffin Jax, Coby Mayo, Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin. Subscribe to our YouT...ube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Spring training, believe it or not.
Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express.
Welcome into FBT Express on Wednesday, February 25th.
I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers.
Let's do a little spring training, believe it or not.
We've got some statements here, some things that are going on lately.
And let's discuss up first where Brandon Woodruff might not be ready for opening day.
Believe it or not.
So this is a tough one because there was this quote.
He made his first bullpen session on Monday.
And afterwards, he said,
it's fair to say I'm a touch behind the other guys
and that I'm focused less on getting ready for opening day
and more on being available at the end of the year when it matters most.
And this is an example of the limitations of the kind of aggregation economy in sports
because I don't actually think there's much risk of brand,
and Woodruff not being ready for opening day.
And some reporting on Tuesday indicates that he is, in fact, expected to be ready for opening day.
The concern for me is just that he's probably priced a little too high for someone who does have significant injury risk.
You know, he missed basically two seasons with shoulder injuries that led to surgery.
His return from that shoulder surgery last season was an arduous problem.
to say the least he had many fits and starts ending with a lat injury that ended his season he's by all
accounts healthy right now but when you're talking about you know a 122 ADP in the month of
February I think that's probably a little too hot for Ben and Withers so it's like I don't believe
the specific question of whether he'll be open ready for opening day I think he should be or if not
shortly after. But I agree with the, I believe the general thrust, which is, hey, there is
something to be worried about in Brandon Woodruff profile, even if it's not necessarily
a concern right now. It's more, can he get through the season? We know that Edwin Usata is
dealing with a cranky shoulder right now. I believe he had a cortisone injection in there.
Not sure if he'll be ready for opening day, so we'll see on that. But as a result, Griffin
Jacks might get some helium. So believe it.
or not, Griffin Jacks should be pushed up draft boards.
A little bit, but I think as a general rule, he's probably going to be overdrafted in the wake
of this news. So I'm more of on the don't believe it side where I'm not necessarily sure
the Edwin-Usaida injury actually changes Griffin-Jack's outlook. Maybe it gives him less
competition for saves, but I think a lot of fantasy players are looking at this as a Griffin-Jack's
versus Edwin Useda thing.
And if Usada's out the picture,
Griffin Jacks is just going to be the closer in Tampa Bay.
And I don't actually think that's how it's going to work.
I think this is going to be a very messy bullpen situation.
Griffin Jackson is quite good.
Although he did struggle after getting to Tampa.
I don't really have much concern about that.
The peripherals were still fine.
He still has elite strikeout stuff.
But I just don't think the Rays are going to hand the closer job to any one person.
If it's not Griffin Jacks and Edwin Useda,
it's probably Griffin Jacks and Garrett Clevenger.
And there will probably be other guys involved in that mix as well.
So, you know, maybe I think you can draft Griffin Jacks around 200th overall
and hope for 20 saves and expect very good ratios and he'll probably be a fine pick.
But my concern with this is as spring training goes on,
we're going to start to see Griffin Jacks really pushed up in like the 150 range of ADP.
And that's where I'll definitely be out.
because I just, I don't think the path to 30 saves is as clear as a lot of people seem to think in the aftermath of the say to injury.
And also, you said it might be ready for opening day.
Like, he has not been ruled out for opening day yet.
It's worth noting.
Yeah.
Over the past week, Griffin Jackson's ADP at the NFBC is 185, but there is a min pick in there of 125.
So some people are getting pretty excited about Griffin Jax.
Next up, we know that Jordan Westberg is dealing with a.
partially torn UCL in his right elbow.
He's out until at least May could be longer than that.
So believe it or not, Kobe Mayo matters again for fantasy.
I absolutely believe this.
Now, whether Kobe Mayo will hit enough to actually matter for fantasy is a different question,
but I think Kobe Mayo at the very least is going to get a month of runway to prove himself.
And that's something he hasn't really had.
I guess in the second half of last season, he did get a pretty long look and was not very
good. It was a sub-700 OPS. He had a great September, but even then, his average exit velocity
was like 82 miles an hour in September, so there were real limitations to his skill set.
But this is a guy who's been a top 20 prospect for a couple of years now, has been very
productive at AAA. The range of outcomes has certainly shifted towards the bad end.
I think batting average is likely to be a concern for Kobe Mayo. It's less of a guarantee that he's
going to emerge as a 30 homer guy than it looked like maybe, you know, this time a year ago
or certainly a year and a half ago. But Mayo's going to get the opportunity. He's going to play
pretty regularly to open the season. And there's a decent chance Jordan Westberg just never
plays this season with, you know, first an oblique injury to open spring training and then a torn
UCL in his right arm that he's going to try to rehab. But we just saw Sebastian Walcott of the Texas
Rangers, a big-time prospect there.
Sorry, yeah, he's the Rangers.
Yeah.
He just had internal brace procedure surgery and is likely to miss the entire season.
So that is on the table for Jordan Westberger.
At least it's in the possible range of outcomes.
So I think Kobe Mayo is going to have the runway.
It's kind of his last and best chance yet to actually emerge as an everyday player for the Orioles.
But someone who should be in your late round plans at least.
Yeah, over the past eight drafts at the NFBC, Kobe Mayo's ADP is 465.
but there is a min pick of 317.
So some people I think are starting to consider taking him as one of their last
picks and drafts.
Yeah, in that bench range, for sure.
Cubby Mow should be in that discussion.
All right, let's take a quick break.
We'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in FBT Express taking a look at some spring training storylines here.
And next up, we learned that O'Neo Cruz hired a left-handed batting practice pitcher
this offseason in an effort to get more comfortable against lefties.
He has terrible numbers against them in his career, but at least he's trying.
So, Chris, believe it or not, O'Neill Cruz will be better against Lefties this season.
You are muted, sir.
I definitely believe it because he had like a 400 Ops against Lefties last season.
Yes.
It would be really hard to be worse than O'Neo Cruz was last year against Lefties.
Let's amend this to he will be serviceable against left-handed pitching.
I personally do not believe that.
No. Now, okay, how are we defining serviceable? I think in 2024 it was like a 626 OPS against lefties,
which is still really bad, but given that he should be closer to an 800 OPS against righties,
you can look at it and see like, yeah, maybe he's a, you know, maybe he bounces back and hits 240
and the left-handed splits don't drag him down quite as much. But I also think the big risk for O'Neil Cruz here is he gets off to a slow start against lefties.
the pirates are actually competitive, and they just decide, you know what, this guy's not a starter
against lefties. I think there's a real risk of that. So yes, I do believe he'll be better than he was
last season. It would be almost impossible for him to be worse, but I still think he's going to
struggle against lefties, and I think it's going to drag his overall numbers down. I'm much less
willing to make the bet on O'Neill Cruz as like a top 100 pick than most people are. And a big part of it is
I just think there's real playing time risk there.
Yeah, look, again, to his credit, he's trying to improve here against lefties.
I've backed a little bit off the bus case for him.
I like Marcel O'Suna being there and that kind of veteran presence and other Dominican-born player where he can relate and he's got that mentorship.
So I'm just like slowly talking myself out of O'Neill Cruz being a bus, but overall, I still don't love the price for him.
Let's wrap up here with one more of those pesky pirates.
Connor Griffin, man, one day, two homers for Connor Griffin, the first off of Rangers
Farez, Chris, we knew what happened.
We knew this would happen.
The second home run, 111 miles per hour off the bat, 440 feet, just absolutely demolished
the baseball.
So, believe it or not, Connor Griffin is a long shot for opening day.
So that's the quote from Don Kelly, right?
That's what everybody over the last week or so was reacting to is Don Kelly.
the new Pirates manager saying, you know, he's only played, I think it was 30 games above
high A. It's really hard. The quote was something like, it's really hard to see him making that
leap with the playing time he's at. Sure. Yeah, it is really hard to see. We haven't seen a 19-year-old
at the Major League level as a hitter since Juan Soto. It's very rare. It's also very rare to be
as good as Connor Griffin was as a 19-year-old at AA last season. So we're already in
rarefied air. It's rare. It's really hard. It's asking a lot for a 19 year old to have a chance to make an
opening day roster. He's already there, though. Like that is most 19 year olds aren't even in the
spot that Connor Griffin already is in. And then I just look at the pirates. Everybody's like,
all the pirates are cheap. They're going to play the service time game. Well, you only have to look to
two years ago at that blowing up in their face because they played the service time games with Paul Skeens.
They wait until May to call him up, and he still wins rookie of the year.
And under the latest CBA, if a player wins rookie of the year, regardless of when they start
their clock, their service time is the full year.
And so what happens is the pirates missed out on potential draft pick compensation by calling
Paul Skeens up to start that season, and they didn't get the extra year of club control
and the extra year of cheap control with Paul Skeens.
And then last season, they tried to do the same thing with Bubba Chandler.
He falls apart around June.
We've got reports that Pirates players are calling Bubba Chandler to apologize on the team's behalf for not calling him up.
I just, I really do not think the Pirates can get away with leaving Connor Griffin down if he looks ready.
And I think that's the key thing.
If Connor Griffin flops this spring, he's not going to get called up either way.
I think his fate is entirely in his hands.
I do not think the pirates are going to play the service time games with him,
given how talented he is, given how much hype there is around him,
and given that the clock is ticking on Paul Skeen's time in Pittsburgh.
They have four more years of club control left, including this one,
and he's going to be more expensive starting next year.
Like, they might only have three years of Paul Skeens left before it becomes,
yeah, we need to compete or trade this guy.
They need to start competing.
this year. So I think Connor Griffin, if he shows he's ready, I think there's very little
chance he's not in the opening day roster. I'm kind of on an island on that one, but I can
imagine the two home runs today might be swaying you to my side a little bit. Chris, everything
you just said is completely rational. I just don't believe that the pirates are rational.
Sure. I'm going out on a limb here. I'm giving them some unearned benefit of the doubt.
For sure.
Look, I've seen split reactions.
I've seen people on both sides of this on, you know, fantasy baseball Twitter where, you know, people
are adamant one way or another that Connor Griffin, yes, will be up on opening day.
Some people believe there's no chance.
He might not be up until August of this year.
So.
People be saying things so definitive.
I think it depends.
Yes.
I would agree with that.
And this is not how we should react to Connor Griffin, but it almost feels like his draft
price is going to go up or down on a daily basis.
basis, right? And it shouldn't be that way because, you know, after the two home run game,
he's going to shoot up a lot of draft boards. He could go five for his next 40 with a 35% strikeout
rate and then have no chance of making the opening day roster. So I think there's going to be a lot
of fluctuations in his price based on what he continues to do in spring training. And look,
reacting to a single good game would be a bad idea. Reacting to a single vague quote from his
manager is also a bad idea. I think it's he's going to have to earn it. And maybe there's
nothing he can do to earn a spot, but I really don't think that's the case. I think they're going
to give him a real chance. And it might be a long shot. It might be asking too much of a 19 year
old, but he also might be the kind of 19 year old who is capable of doing this. I will point out
the last 19 year old to make their debut as a hitter was Juan Soto.
He played eight games at AA before getting called up.
Now that was mid-season and he clearly showed that he was just,
there was nothing left for him to learn,
but Conner Griffin played like 30 games at AA last season,
dominated at all three levels.
So there might not be anything left for him to learn too.
So I'm not reacting to the two homer game.
I have been consistent in my stance on Connor Griffin.
You might not, but other people will.
But yes, I think a lot of people will.
And we'll probably see there was a five-day dip after that quote from Don Kelly.
Now there will probably be a bump.
I think as long as he's around 200, it's totally worth the risk.
Because it's also a 19-year-old who just went 2065.
The upside here is just ridiculous.
Yeah, Connor Griffin's NFBC ADP over the past week is 187 with a min pick of 154 mix in there.
Again, I do think that's going to go up after this two home run game.
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