Fantasy Baseball Today - Starting Pitcher Recap Part 1! Ballpark Changes in 2025! (11/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 19, 2024

Starting pitcher innings continue to decline (2:42). ... What did league-wide starting pitcher stats look like (11:14)? ... Let's recap the Top 12 SP from this past season, starting with Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler (14:39). ... Paul Skenes is already being drafted as the SP1 for next season (20:01). ... Logan Gilbert and Shota Imanaga were impressive in 2024 (26:44). ... News (37:30): Nick Martinez has accepted the Reds' qualifying offer. ... The Rays will play in George M. Steinbrenner Field next season while the Orioles will alter Camden Yards again (40:35). ... What to expect from Bryce Miller and Seth Lugo (50:47)? ... Corbin Burnes' strikeouts are declining and Framber Valdez reached a new level (56:10). ... Dylan Cease had a bounce-back season with the Padres and Ronel Blanco was a huge breakout (1:01:32). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Finally, we move on to pitching, and there's a lot to talk about. In fact, we're going to spend the next two weeks talking about just this position. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, November 19.

I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we are doing starting pitcher recap, taking a look at some league-wide stats and the top 24 finishers from this past season. And we did get some big news regarding ballpark. So we found out where the race are going to play, George Steinbrenner Field, and the Orioles apparently admitted to an overcorrection.

And now they're going to have a happy medium. So the wall is coming back in and left field. We'll talk about how both of those things affect fantasy, baseball in 2025. Let's just begin with some of those macro starting pitcher trends and stats from this past season. And starting with innings. So as we know, the workhorse has really kind of faded away over the past, you know, decade in fantasy and real baseball.

But this year we had four pitchers with 200 plus innings. In 2023, we had five. In 2022, we had eight. So again, you see that downward trend. And if we lower that threshold to just 180 innings, We had 21 this past season, 25 last year, and 27 in 2022. So, Scott, not all that surprising, but I guess some statistics to back up the fact that we don't have individual pitchers who are throwing as many innings anymore in fantasy. Yeah, it's been a long-term trend and it seems to be increasing.

My personal feeling, just going through the 2024 season, is that most teams effectively have. had a six-man rotation for stretches. Like they never, if you actually said, oh, we have a six-man rotation, but they would just insert spot starters so often. Whenever they had a stretch without an off day, that oftentimes kind of toppled the two-star pitcher rankings, you know, because I'd look ahead to the next week.

I'd see how everybody lines up. Okay, this team has seven games. We've got a guy going Monday and also Tuesday. They'll both be two-star pitchers for the upcoming week. week. But then only the Monday guy would be because a six starter would get inserted at the last minute. And that that happened often enough that I feel like that's probably a big contributor to this trend. And I'm not sure anything's going to reverse that trend. So as we'll get into over the next two weeks, starting pitcher feels insanely deep. Like as deep as I've ever seen it, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say. that deep with like actual quality pitchers, but because the starting pitcher is usage is changing, like you probably want more of a surplus there. Well, and those things probably go hand in hand, right?

Like if you said there were 21 pitchers, you threw 180 innings last season? Yes, this past season, 21. 2015, so 10 years ago, 28 pitchers through 200 innings. Wow. We had four. That's only a decade ago. Yeah. There were four this year, which is the lowest number in a short,

strike, short and non-strike shorten season outside of 2021 when everybody was coming back from the COVID year. So that right there tells you this like 28, 200 inning pitchers in 2015. That's wild. And so in 2015, if. Paul Skeens threw a sub 2 ERA in 130 innings. That was probably a top 10 season. But now it was what, the number four or five starting pitcher?

Like it's just a total sea change that has made it's, I think to a certain extent elevated the handful of guys who can really throw 200 innings. I mean, a handful. I don't know if four is even a handful. Well, can as opposed to did. Well, yeah, I guess more than four can, but like, yeah, Chris Bassett was terrible this year, so he was never going to get to 200 innings. He did it two years ago. But like, I almost feel like I know Zach Wheeler on a perning basis falls short of some of his contemporaries, but like you legitimately might project him for 25, 30 more innings than anyone in that same range at starting pitcher, right?

like Terrick School, Paul Skeen. I mean, it's, I project him for 40 more innings than Paul Skeen's in 2025. It's tricky. Yeah. Because I feel like I kind of lost the thread on starting pitcher for a stretch. We're talking a few years back where I really emphasized workload to the point that I may be de-emphasized skill level too much.

And you can only predict workload so much, right? Like, Zach Wheeler has one IL stent. Everybody can get hurt. Every pitch is an injury risk. Right. So, Zach Wheeler is really good. He's been Cy Young caliber for a few years in a row now. And I think that is why, for instance, I have Zach Wheeler second behind just Terrick Scoobal.

I know some people are going to want to put Paul Skeen's ahead of him. I'm going to put Wheeler second. And part of, there is the workload disparity factoring into that sum. But like Zach Wheeler's. Cy Young Calibur himself. Like part of it is just the provenness factor that Wheeler brings to the tables. Table, just one table. That inning thing, I happen to be flipping through.

I have the Bill James historical abstract on my bookshelf. And I happen to be flipping through it today. And he had a prediction. It was written in like 2004 or something. And he had a prediction that the trend. of pitchers not throwing deeper into games and not throwing as many complete games, just not throwing as many innings. His prediction was in the 21st century. That trend would reverse. And I'm not here to pick on Bill James. That was just one prediction from a 1,200-page book.

That was incorrect. And what we've seen is a steady decline up to 2020. 2020, obviously nobody throws, but every single year in baseball history, you had at least 13 pitchers throw 200 innings before 2020. It hasn't happened more than eight times in the last four seasons. Like, I don't, I'm not going to say never.

It seems unlikely we'll see 10 pitchers throw 200 innings in the same season again. Yeah, ever again. Unless they change the rules, which some things have been talked about, like requiring pitchers. go six innings or throw a hundred pitches, something like that. It's not here yet, but, you know, it's something that's kind of being bandied about right now. And that's kind of just in conjunction with the trend of the game, right?

You mentioned Chris since the COVID shortened season. I mean, since then, it's pitchers are throwing harder than ever before. It feels like we're seeing more injuries than ever before as a result of that. We think as a result of that. And teams are trying different things, right? Like the advent of the opener, right? Like that's kind of changed the game as well. So all of those things in conjunction have kind of led to this decline in innings.

I don't know if there was like a final point that you were going to mention there, Chris. I think like Sandy Alcantra coming back next year. I know coming back from injury, if he threw 200 innings next year, it wouldn't surprise me. He's capable of it. I'm not saying I expect it, but it's one of those things where if you've shown the skill, I think you can do it. And that's where it comes to like the Zach Wheeler versus. Paul Skeen's question. I'm sure we'll get into that more,

but it's like, it's not that Paul Skeens can't do it. And it's not that Paul Skeens can't be effective while throwing 180 innings. We've just never seen that. And I personally do put a premium on the pitchers that we have seen go that deep into a season

and maintain their effectiveness. Because what wouldn't surprise me is if we got Paul Skeen's at 170 innings next season and then he just kind of falls apart. Not gets hurt, I'm not predicting that,

but just like, we don't know, it's uncharted territory, I guess, is what I've seen a pitcher do it. I don't necessarily trust him to do it is the stance I've held for a while now. Just on the quick,

a quick point on Sandy Alcantara, if he went 200 innings, that would be the record for a pitcher coming back from Tommy John, which is currently owned by Matt. Harvey who had 189. Justin Verlander, an old guy coming back from Tommy John surgery, won the Cy Young that year, but still only 175.

It would be surprising. Yeah, it would be a reckless on the market. Yeah, he didn't pitch in a game last year. That's a fair point. Yeah, other league-wide trends, I just wanted to mention league-wide starting pitcher stats, so not all pitching stats. This is just limited to starting pitcher stats.

Part of the reason why Scott says this position is so deep, is if you just look at this past season, 4.15 ERA, 127 whip. In 2023, that was a 445 ERA and a 131 whip. And then in 2022, it was a 405 ERA and 126 whip. So this past season in 2022 look much more similar. And 2023 looks like the outlier when, you know, whether you think there was a bouncy ball or whatever it was, it seems like the offensive environment was up overall in 2023.

And I think if we're just projecting forward based on all, the last three years, we have to look at 2022 and 2024 as that kind of feels like where the pitching environment is going to be. Though we can never know for sure. 10% of the league, as we will get to very shortly, does appear to be pitching in much more favorable offensive environments than they were last season. I think at least two of them are significantly better hitting environments and one will probably be a at least slightly better hitting environment. All right.

But more on that later in the show. Look at this guy. Professional broadcaster. A tease there from CPT. Let's take our first break. When we return, we'll get into the top 24 from this past season, and we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in.

Let's recap the top 24 starting pitchers from this past season, and this is using something I haven't used before, but I've heard other people in the industry kind of reference it. So let's try it out and see how accurate it was, I guess. The Fangraph's player rater for 12-team, roto 5-5 leagues, and we'll go two at a time, keep things moving. I will mention where they finish

in head-to-pointeagues on CBS as well, just to, you know, kind of show both sides, some love, the roto, the points league's players. But the top two pitchers this past season, Terrick Scobble and Zach Wheeler, numbers 1 and 2, they were both top 2 and head-to-head points leagues as well. Scoobble, the likely A.L. Sayung Award winner.

He can do it all. He gets whiffs, ground balls, he limits walks, limits hard contact, He throws hard. He has four different pitches. He has the arsenal. The only question you might have is the workload. He jumped up so much.

95 total innings in 2023. That was all the way up to 211 total endings this past season. If you include the postseason, how will his arm handle that, you know, big jump from one year to the next? I think that's probably the biggest question for Scoobel. And then Zach Wheeler, he's as consistent as they come. He's a workhorse. Skills are still intact.

The only question here, Scott, is that he turns 35. in May. So, you know, is it one of those things where it could just kind of start to decline out of nowhere at that age? It might. We haven't seen it yet, but it might. So what are your thoughts here on Scouble and Zach Wheeler? Yeah, those are my one and two for next year. I'll start with that.

The concerns are exactly the ones you bring up. The innings increase for Scoobel 85 to 211. That's a big jump. But he continued to dominate, even as he piled. up those innings. Now, that doesn't mean that he doesn't have a serious arm injury awaiting him, but I don't think we're especially good at predicting

that. And in terms of the numbers he put up, everything in the profile suggests it's legit and that he can do it again. And so I think he's now shown he can take on a big workload

and he's done so with percentages as good as you could ask for from a starting pitcher. So I think Scooble is a pretty easy choice for number one. I'm probably not going to draft him where I need to draft him, but he deserves to be the first one off the board. And as for Wheeler, mid-30s, a guy who's taken on a big workload routinely,

he's shown he can handle that. That feels like an indication of how safe he is to me, rather than how much risk there is net there. Now, yeah, it could all end. at age 36, but with pitchers compared to hitters, it could all end for anybody at any age. You know, it's just not the sort of thing that you can apply, unless you see evidence of a decline, like, oh, he's becoming less dominant or something. Maybe he's losing it a little bit like Justin Rlander coming back from the Tommy John surgery.

He wasn't, even though he had a one, he was, Ty Young, but he. Yeah, one of the Cy Young, sub two ERA. He wasn't as overpowering. gotten worse with each subsequent year. He was in his late 30s at his time, not as mid-30s. But again, it could happen at any time. We haven't seen any evidence from that, of that from Wheeler yet. In fact, this past year was only the second time he had ever struck out more than 10

batters per nine. So he feels as safe as starting pitchers get for me. And I phrase it that way purposely because, of course, starting pitchers are inherently unsafe. And one thing I do think Wheeler kind of has going for him. And this might sound like a backhanded compliment, but he doesn't have like one putaway pitch that he relies on the way a lot of pitchers do where it's like,

oh, if that pitch goes away, it's going to be a problem for it. For Zach Wheeler, it's like fast, his four seamers 30% whiff rate. His sweeper's 34. His curveball's 39. I would argue that his fastball is that putaway pitch, but the velocity is still there.

It's like everything is fine. He brought in a splitter this year for the first time. And it was awesome. He kind of stopped using it in the second half. I'm not sure why. But it was for the 7% usage it averaged out to on the year, it was his best swing in this pitch. And so I look at that and I think like multiple things would have to go wrong for Zach Wheeler to not be good in a way that I don't think is true of every pitcher.

I do think it's like Terrick Scouble is similar. He's just got a whole mess of. put away pitches. Paul Skeens is kind of the same way where like, Skeen's actually like you look at the individual pitch with rates and it's like, eh, it's all just good, but nothing's great. The key is that like you cannot sit on any pitch in any count. And that's where Zach Wheeler is. And it's kind of weird.

If you've, if you've just been playing fantasy baseball and listening to our podcast for like four or five years, all you know is a world where Zach Wheeler throws 180 innings. This is a new thing for like, Zach Wheeler was not the preeminent workhorse in Major League Baseball until his 30s, really. It's a weird late career thing for Zach Wheeler. And like Scott said, if I haven't seen any signs of decline, I'm not going to price it in at this point.

I, the, the, the proven ability to throw this many innings is an asset, not a, not a liability for me. I know not everybody views it that way, but, but that's how I view it. The numbers three and four starting pitchers were Chris Sale and Paul Skeen. Sale was also third in total heads head points. Skeens was the SP4 in head to head points per gain because obviously he didn't make enough, you know, starts to actually, you know, factor in total points. But if you just look at on a per start basis, Paul, Skeens was the fourth best pitcher in that format.

Sale, huge bounce back season. The likely NL. Syung Award winner, Velocity jumped back up. Slider was awesome as always. But he did miss a few starts towards the end of the season with back spasms. You hope that's all it was because obviously he does have an extensive injury history.

And then Skeens just won the NL Rookie of the Year award. We're recording this on Monday night. He was just given the award on Monday night. And he was ridiculous. He was the first rookie pitcher with an ER. under two and 170 plus strikeouts since at least 1913, and you have to pay the price to get him. The early ADP is 11.2 as the SP1 off the board.

So, Chris, any concerns with the way sale ended the year with that injury, and what about Skeens as the potential SP1 moving forward? I'm not going to draft Paul Skeen's in 2025. He's just going to be on zero of my teams, because it sounds like it hurts you well like i would love to have paul skeins i i think there's a decent chance he's the best pitcher in baseball already but you have to draft him as if he's not just the best pitcher in baseball but like by far the best pitcher in baseball and i think this might be a situation where like if you look at whatever whenever fantasy pros publishes their consensus

rankings for 2025 if they haven't already he will i would guess will not be the number one pitcher in the consensus rankings. It's just there will be one person in every draft, whether it's fourth overall, as in a draft of Frank did recently, fifth in a draft that I did, someone is going to take Paul Skeens in the first round in every draft.

And I don't think that will be the consensus, but that's where his ADP will be. And look, God bless. Like I'm not going to make the case against Paul Skeens, except that I just, I don't think he is so far ahead of Terrick Scouble as a pitcher right now that I can justify taking him a half a round, a full round ahead of where Scoobel's going

when he's never thrown more than 130 innings at a major league level, has never thrown more than 160 innings in a season. Like, it's just maybe he is 5% better than Terrick Scubal on a per inning basis. Scuba thrown 190 innings at the Major League level at a SP1 best pitcher and baseball type of level. And so the amount of confidence I have to have that Paul Skeens is better, given that innings gap, I just can't get there. Because like, remember, Terrick Scouble in 2023 through, what, 80 innings at the Major League level where he was on a per inning basis, the absolute best pitcher and baseball by every metric you could possibly.

Like he was better than relievers who threw 65 innings. And he took a little step back on a per inning basis because that's what you should expect when the workload ramps up. And I think Paul Skeen is incredible. I don't want to make the case against him. I just cannot get there. Well, let's reframe it then because I do think Schee, I'm sorry, I do think Scoobel, Terik Scoobel is going to be the consensus number one.

ranked. And I do think, you know, only drafts results we're seeing now are from like sharks and stuff, right? Like we're not, we're not seeing the normie drafts yet. And I think once the normie drafts begin, we will see scoble taken ahead of skeins on average. So let's say, let's say scoble goes off the board with the eighth or ninth pick overall, something like that. Would you be comfortable taking skeins right after? Because for me, it's not, I don't even know that I want to spend around two pick on them. I'd still. I'd still rather build a pitching staff around Zach Wheeler. I have,

I have Skeens. I think he was fourth when I, when I did my SP rankings. It's a little, you know, we're about a month and a half removed from that. So I don't know if I had Skeens third or fourth. But like,

I would feel okay with him at third. But I, I don't think I could click him ahead of. Yeah, I had him third. I couldn't click him ahead of, Wheeler who, again, maybe not quite as dominant. Maybe he doesn't have that 12K per nine upside, but.

Yeah. Has thrown the 200 plus innings before that Schoens has never come close to. Skeens doesn't meet that standard I mentioned before, where unless I've seen you take on that workload, I don't necessarily trust you to do that. Maybe he will, but I don't know that I want to stake my season on it, especially given the distribution of talent at starting pitcher this year. The way I lay it out, clear top three, whatever order you want to put him in,

it's a clear top three, scoble, wheeler skeins for me. Yeah, I agree. And then Sale is number four by default just because. I have Burnsforth, actually. Yeah, that's fine. There's no obvious number four, I feel like. And so Sale, okay, he just won the NL pitching triple crown. I'm going to default to him there.

But it's not like I have a ton of confidence in him doing it again. he managed to have a healthy season for the first time in five years. And it wasn't even totally healthy because he had that back issue in the end that caused him velocity. That's one of those things like what if that back injury happens in June? We don't know what it looks like. Yeah, exactly. That's a good point. But what I'm building up to is that even though there's a clear top three at the starting pitcher,

I know they're all going to be gone within the first 16 to 24 picks. I don't want to invest in a starting pitcher then. I'm not taking a starting pitcher until those. We've talked a lot about that first 15 hitters. I'm not taking a starting pitcher until they're off the board. I don't think they give you a clear enough advantage. Even though they're the obvious top three, I don't think they give you a clear enough advantage relative to the hitters

because there's so many good pitchers still to come. Not as good, but good enough that you could get multiple of them to make up for the the first or second round guy. So Scott, you mentioned Chris Sale is going to be your SP4 heading into next year. Chris, you mentioned it was going to be Corbin Burns. I think my SP4 might be this next name we're going to talk about. And it's Logan Gilbert. The number five and six starting pitchers this year were Logan Gilbert and Chota Imanaga.

Gilbert was the SP4 and head to head points. I'mauga was SP7 in that format. When diving into Gilbert, I really just loved everything that I saw. I mean, he is a workhorse. He was first among qualified starting pitchers in swinging strike rate. Fastball velocity was up. That's shocking, actually. That's crazy, right?

I did not realize that. Fastball velocity was up, and he ranked very highly in the Stuff Plus metric, much higher than he's ever been before. I mean, the biggest drawback for him is that he had nine wins, but that's out of his control. He pitches in a favorable ballpark on what should be a good team. So, man, everything I looked into look great for Logan Gilbert.

And then Imenaga had an incredible rookie season, 291 ERA, 102 whip, just over a strikeout per inning. He has that riding fastball. He has a wipeout splitter. But he's really just a two-pitch pitcher. The underlying ERA indicator said, okay, maybe there's some regression coming. So you have some questions there for IMAGA.

Scott, your thoughts here on Logan Gilbert and Chota Imanaga. Yeah, so that stat didn't it stand out to me, Logan Gilbert being first in swinging a strike rate among qualifiers. If you drop the qualification to 100 innings, Blake Snell and Garrett Crochet are ahead of him by a big margin, but, you know, Gilbert still comes in third. I find that interesting because if we're just talking about K-per-9, 9.5, that doesn't blow me away.

Logan Gilbert threw enough innings that he still got to 220 strikeouts, which is, of course, a great number. But that was a league-leading number of innings. Great control pitcher, a little prone to, home runs so it's a good thing he pitches in Seattle I don't see why he wanted to continue pitching in Seattle so I think he's a pretty safe choice he still feels a little

he feels a little unspectacular to me like I could see his ERA it was 373 in 2023 and dropped to 323 I could see it creeping into the mid threes again yeah that'll make the premium you pay for him a little less palatable.

I guess my push back, just real quick, on Gilbert there, is that was the year where offense was up, right? If we do assume that the offensive environment will be like it was this year in 2022, he had a 320 and a 323-ERA in those two seasons. So I guess I don't know how I can assume anything about offensive environment. That's fair. Which I know you could say, oh, my take about how deep starting pitcher is it could be upended by the environment changing again. But when I say pitching is deep, I mean like from a true talent perspective, not just from, okay, these guys happen to put up good numbers during this pitching favorable season. But that's a separate point.

Logan Gilbert, I am sixth. So I think that's about as low as you could justify ranking them six. So maybe a clear one, two, three, and then a clear four, five, six in some order between sail burns and gilbert it's just that gilbert's the the last of those three for me it i i don't know if i i'm just looking through like logan gilbert's history and i don't know when the last time he missed a start due to injury he's a workhorse man but it it has to be college because you look at the the number of games started you go to his college we don't like that's just a completely completely different schedule, but his first year as a professional, 26 starts, 135 innings across three levels.

2020, he didn't make any starts. Yeah, that, that'll happen. There was a thing happening. 2021, 25 starts. There were no MLB missed starts. Then 32, 32, 33. So, like, that is about as clean a track record for health as you can possibly have. Like, I think of other pitchers and, like, Corbyn Byrne.

I think missed a little time in 2020 at the end of the year with like a back injury. And that was the only one that I've been able to find for him. But like it's pretty rare. I think it goes without saying to find a pitcher with that pristine of a track record. And Imanaga is someone who did miss some time. I think his final two years in Japan with I'm not sure what the injury specific. was, but I think his innings were a little lower.

Oh, no. Yeah, he was at 159 in 2023 and 158. I don't think he missed any starts. But I think that's just how much they pitch into it. Yeah, they pitch every six day and they only have like 145 game schedule. So I think that's actually,

his track record's pretty pristine as well. Maybe I think of Kodai Senga, who missed some time. I mean, for dominant, as I'managa is, he doesn't throw very hard. And that's why we were getting some. The scouting reports were kind of mixed on him coming over from Japan last year because he didn't have that traditional dominant arsenal. He does throw a lot of splitters, which is in theory not so good for the elbow.

But I think he's pretty durable. But they do space out his starts. And that will keep the innings total down for Imanaga. I'm not counting on much regression for Imanaga at this point. I don't know if I'm totally changing the subject by talking about another pitcher here. but it was one of the two from this group. So I'm not counting on a big correction for Imanaga. We were expecting it over the course of this year.

And I think seeing that his flyball heavy arsenal could survive the summer like it did this year, I'm not saying he'll have a 291 ERA again, but I'm not worried about like a 361 ERA so much. I think he'll be, I think if you look at Eamaga and George Kirby, you compare the underlying stats, they come out with pretty similar. And you brought this up coming into the season is that we don't often see

this archetype from a left-handed pitcher, too. It's very rare. We talk about like the Joe Ryan's and the Bailey Ober's, these guys that like throw this kind of deceptive fastball at the top of the zone. They don't really throw all that hard and, you know, they get the most out of their skill set. We don't really see that from the left-hand side.

And then you throw this splitter on top of it, which just makes IMAGA a really unique case. Lefty splitter. are incredibly rare. They're one of the most rare pitch types. And I think you can look at that both ways. You can say, well, hitters never see this type of pitcher. Or you can say, well, they just saw it for a full season.

What happens if they're more used to it? We don't know. I'm not ranking Immanaga as if he's going to repeat 2024. where do you I think it was around 15 I think a solid SP2 outcome like I would expect some ERA to regression but

you know he's a really good command pitcher I don't think he's going to walk that many he'll probably give up lots of solo homers the whip should still be really good like a mid 3s ERA strikeout per inning 110 whip that's probably like an SP2 I will say I could see both Emanaga

and Gilbert having some Maranola in them where they're good pitchers. I expect them to be good. I could see the ERA being on the higher side for both of them. I don't think that would be just crazy either. I guess it's kind of dumb to say Logan Gilbert doesn't miss bats at the lead level when he just literally led the majors and swing the strike rate. He doesn't strike batters out. So he strikes batters out at a slightly above average clip, but he does rely on his defense more than Terrick Skuple and Paul.

Skeen certainly, but also Zach Wheeler and other pitchers in this range. So it's, there's just, I think, an inherent variance. It's not bad. It's just adds a little bit more unpredictability to the ERA. And I think you can say the same thing about a couple of pitchers coming up. All right. Before we take our final break, a reminder to subscribe to the FBT newsletter if you haven't already.

CBSports.com slash newsletters. you find the FBT logo, you click subscribe, and it's easy as that. If you're watching on YouTube, you can scan that QR code that will take you right to the website where you do exactly what I just said. It's free, it gets delivered to your email inbox,

so why not? And heads up that we do have a bonus podcast coming out this week. I'll be joined by our buddy, the Welsh, Chris Welsh, to recap the Arizona Fall League, which ended this past weekend. So that will be out later on this week on Friday. So a little Kokomo Friday with the Welsh bonus podcast.

Let's take our final break. and when we return, we'll hit some news and notes right after this. Welcome back in, let's hit the news and notes. Nick Martinez has accepted the $21 million qualifying offer and will return to the Reds. This past season, a 310 ERA of 103 whip. Well below a strikeout per inning, but out of nowhere became this amazing control pitcher,

so we're hoping that can remain once again and hope that he will be in the rotation. I think that's pretty much a foregone conclusion if they're paying him this amount of money. Right. You had to feel like, Like, they knew he'd probably accept it. That is well beyond what Nick Martinez's earning capacity has ever been.

And I doubt they're, I doubt they're going to pay $21 million for a swing man. So I think Nick Martinez, just seeing the number he got, deserves to move up the rankings. Not saying he needs to be drafted, you know, shallow release he might not be even drafted at all. but there's a lot more. There's going to be more interested in the next year

than there's ever been before. And should be drafted in every head-to-head points leagues, which is the shallower format, but by dint of having RP eligibility, he gets a nice boost there in a year where frankly the spartes are not good right now at least. Yeah, what is it? Where do I have it?

It's like Bowdoin Francis and Nick Martinez. Bound Francis, Nick Martinez. And then like Jackson Job, assuming he's in the rotation, Jeff Hoffman, Griffin Vax, if they transition to the rotation, but they're much more speculative, I think, than Martinez would be. And there was a, I just wrote about this today. I should have the names up closer to the top of my head. Drew Rasmussen, we expect to be in the rotation.

That's the other one that I think those are the six of note. 85 is where I have Nick Martinez. is I probably can get him as high as like 75 if I want to move them up. That's starting pitch I'm talking about. Gotcha. But if you say, well, that sounds low considering what you just said about him, yeah, that's what starting pitcher looks like. Everybody seems too low.

Congrats on the rookies of the year. We mentioned Paul Skeen's won in the National League. Luis Heel in the American League and, you know, some consternation on the internet there always is about Jackson Merrill versus Paul Skeen's. I think both were worthy candidates. I probably would have voted for Jackson Merrill. I know in Fangraph's war, he was worth one win more. He also played more this season than Paul Skeen. So very, very close, razor thin decision, but I think both were deserving. It's a shame that the NL had all the rookies. Well, remember before the season, we were talking about

what a complete dumpster fire the Padres outfield looked like. And it ended up being an actual strength for them. It would legitimately looked like one of the worst position groups in baseball for the Padres. And then Jackson, Maryland, Jers, and Pro Fire were like, nope. We're actually awesome in the outfield. We don't need any outfield help. They both finish as like top

20 outfielders this past season. It was crazy stuff. Let's talk about those ballparks. The arrays will play in George M. Steinbrenner Field next season, the minor league home of the single A Tampa Tarpins. And this is due to the damages done to Tropicana Field suffered from Hurricane

Milton and there are lots of moving parts here. So Steinbrenner Field has the same exact dimensions as the current Yankee Stadium. So first thing that comes to mind should be awesome for left-handed bats, right? So guys like Brandon Lau, Josh Lowe, Jonathan Aronda, on the flip side, I think this could be bad for race pitchers, right? Right-handed pitchers, maybe they're prone to more home runs allowed. Plus, Tropicana Field always graded out great for strikeouts because it was in a dome. They had that, you know, batter's eye that kind of made hitters more susceptible to striking out. So Scott, all around, this kind of feels like it could potentially be a boon for hitters and kind of bad for raised pitchers.

Yeah, I'm most worried. I mean, maybe great news for Jonathan. Arandefi gets playing time. But I'm most worried about the pitchers here because we were going through it before we started recording. They have the right handers especially fly ball prone and home. home run prone. Taj Bradley got killed by home runs in the middle of the season, remember.

And now he's going to a park that's going to play even better than Yankee Stadium for left-handed power hitters, we think. So that's pretty scary. Ryan Pepio, high fly ball rates, Shane Boz, fairly high fly ball rates. I think Shane McClannahan will be relatively fine as long as, you know, he looks fine coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. I don't think he'll be impacted so much by the environment. But a lot of that rotation will be.

And I think they all deserve a downgrade based on this news. Yeah. And I didn't even mention the weather, right? Like, that's going to be a huge problem. We have summer months in Florida where it rains every single day. So it could lead to delays, maybe some postponements, and maybe even could mean some shorter starts for raised pitchers as a result there as well. The one thing I will say, and Scott, you know, this having lived in Florida for a while, is the problem is not so much games being shortened by rain.

Like, the rain is usually gone by game time. It's those afternoons, like the 2 to 5 p.m. rain that causes delays. And this was the problem in Miami before they moved into Marlins Park was the games wouldn't necessarily, it wouldn't be raining during the game. all the time. It's just they couldn't play until the rain stops in the afternoon and then, you know, the field dries and it's playable. And that's the bigger. So I'm less concerned about like shortened starts or games being derailed. Yeah. You don't get a lot of. It's more of a concern in season for like two start pitchers. Like that is where it's like, oh, this guy's projected for a two start week. Well, it's the race.

So they might just go with an opener one day and push everyone back. And also, they might get three rain delays in a week if they play some home games. In the summer, it basically rains every day. It doesn't. You don't get that all day rain so much unless it's a tropical event. But you get that daily showers, sometimes pretty heavy showers for a couple hours. The bigger thing, I think, when you look at playing outdoors and in, Florida is we only have one park to go off right pro player Joe Robbie land shark dolphins hard

rock whatever you want to call it had about 14 names in my lifetime um that was a really big stadium like the the field dimensions were comparable to course field and that helped mitigate the fact that the ball flies further in warm weather and the ball flies further in humid air and so there that's a complicated confluence of factors that go into how far the ball flies. But the Marlins mitigated that by playing in a really big park. It was 425 to center field at Joe Robbie. It was like 390 to the power. It was super big.

Steinbrenner Field is going to have relatively deep-ish power alleys and really shallow lines in a humid air in warm weather. I think this could play as one of the better parks for home runs in baseball. And then you add in the fact that Tropicana Field, Frank, I think you mentioned this already, typically played like stuff played up at Tropicana Field. I've seen some discussions on it, but I haven't seen anybody like land exactly what it was. It's like a combination of playing a sea level in air conditioning, like whatever it was and maybe the lighting at Tropicana. stuff just played up in a huge way at Tropicana Field.

Strikeouts were much higher there than in neutral environments. And I think you're moving from a pretty positive pitching environment to one that seems like a clear negative to me. So I do think this, like Oakland, is a pretty dramatic park shift. And smarter people than me will be able to give more. details on what exactly that means, but my expectation is that both Oakland and Tampa Bay

will have pretty significant positive hitting park shifts in 2025. And we might be saying the same thing for Camden Yards because the Orioles are once again altering their ballpark, this time pulling the left field in closer to home plate, and they cited an overcorrection, and this will be their happier medium is what they're calling it. That left field wall will be pulled in varying, distances between 9 and 20 feet.

The height of the wall will no longer be 13 feet tall, rather 8 feet in some areas, and then 6 feet 11 inches in others. So they're lowering the wall, they're pulling that wall in. I mean, off the top of the head, the hitters that this will benefit most, according to an article on MLB.com, Ryan Mountcastle lost 11 home runs

over the past three years because of that cutout and left field. Adley Rutchman, despite being a switch hitter, lost seven home runs, and then other right-handed, you know, power bats that could gain some here, Jordan Westberg and we think Kobe Mayo is going to be an everyday player for the Orioles as well. So Scott, that seems good for those guys. And again, on the flip side, it could be bad for some of their pitchers. Those numbers you cited, were they applying the new dimensions?

They're saying Ryan Moutcastle lost 11 to those dimensions versus what they're changing it to? I don't think they know. Just based on what it was before. I don't think they know exactly how far it's being pulled in. at every point of the wall because I said it's going to be varying distances. It's inconsistent. Yeah. So here's the thing. The GM's describing it as a happy medium, but I don't think it's exactly medium.

I think it's still going to be pretty picture friendly. Because remember, they pushed them back 30 feet. It was insane. And you look at the new dimensions. It's still at the foul pole 333. That's not changing. And it still immediately shoots way back to 373, which is a very deep, basically dead left field.

But it was like $3.95 before, right? No, no, that actually hasn't changed. Oh, okay, okay. It's staying 373 for a good distance across now when it used to go back even further from 373. But it still gets to that deep point very quickly. And so I think it's still going to play toward... It's going to help.

It's going to help hitters. It can't not help hitters. It's moving in some. But I don't think it's going to be so extreme. that I'm moving Ryan Mountcastle up from like he's 17 in my first base rankings currently. I'm not moving them into the top 12 based on this. Latest from the pre-heated oven. Not the hot stove just yet.

The Red Sox have expressed interest in Blake Snell. The Reds and Royals are discussing a swap of Jonathan, India and Brady Singer, though nothing is close. And honestly, I'm just like, I don't get it in either. I think that's just a bad trade on both ends. Yeah. It feels like it would not help either hitter.

Yeah, or either player. In Cincinnati sounds like a disaster. No. And Scott, your Braves apparently are interested in Walker Bueller. And this is kind of what they do, right? They kind of take on some of these bounce back candidates. And for a lot of them, it's worked out. So not that they've signed them yet, but they have interest in Walker Bueller.

So we'll see. We'll see. I don't put a lot of stock in the rumors, but it could be. Over under 49.5 million Walker Bueller. next contract. Where would you guys put it? I'd put it under. I don't think the Braves will be interested if it's over. Yeah. I think under as well.

I think it probably depends how many years you think he's going to get. I was nearly 250. That seems like too much for me. I could see like 240 maybe. Or if someone taxed on a 30, like maybe he gets like 350, but I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. It would have to be a player option.

Yeah, maybe like 2 for 40 in an option. Yeah, something like that. Yeah, Walker Buehler, pretty interesting. one showed out much better in the postseason hopefully that can carry over into 2025 so we only have 10 minutes left i wanted to get through the top 24 no we're going to get through the top 12 for today you know we have all off season so we'll use Thursday's podcast is like 13 to 24 and then we'll kind of look at some early rankings for next week we can we can pace it better next time i have confidence we got bogged down in that Logan gilbert um show to i'm gonna marga pairing there yeah i i'm really all we had to say was there, Aaron Nola.

I hope you're right, Scott. The number seven and eight starting pitchers from this past season were Bryce Miller and Seth Lugo. Lugo does get a boost in Head-to-Head Points Leagues. He was the SP5 in that format, while Bryce Miller was the SP-10 in points leagues. Miller became less

reliant on his fastball. He introduced a knuckle curve on June 29th and over his final 15 starts. He had a 194 ERA and a 0.91 whip. He also has massive home road split. so we hope for fantasy that he has not traded away from Seattle. Again, that is Bryce Miller.

And Seth Lugo had an awesome season. Jack of all trades. He threw nine different pitches this year. He's developed into a workhorse. Did take a pretty big step back in the second half, a 384 ERA after the break. So, Chris, how much do you buy what we saw from Bryce Miller? And what are your expectations for Seth Lugo next year?

I don't really buy. what we saw from either of them. But I think the big question for Bryce Miller is where is he pitching? If he's in Seattle, I think there's still a lot to like about him coming back. He had a 196 ERA and a 30.3% strikeout rate at home last season. He had a 245 FIP away from Safeco. It's not Safeco. T-Mobile.

T-Mobile. I'm really upset that the Astros are changing their ballpark name, by the way, because there's just Makan, whatever. There's no. I think it's like Dichen. I will get that in 2027, roughly. I will stop calling a minute May Park by that. I think an air conditioning company.

It's still Enron Field to me. Bryce Miller, 425 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 488 FIPP on the road. season. He was one of the biggest home road splits guys in recent memory, frankly, and not in a way that was like, oh, yeah, but it's bad. But like his, his strikeout rate dropped 12%. He's like a Rockies. He's like a Rockies hitter. Yeah, that's wild. And so that's one where if he gets traded and I feel like he's a pretty logical trade candidate for a lot of reasons, he could drop a long way in the rankings. Otherwise, I think he's solid. Like, I don't really expect him to repeat what he did this season, but I do think a whip standout, a good ERA, and, you know, decent but not great strikeouts, that's probably where I am on Bryce Miller. It's the whole Mariners pitching staff.

He's just the next version of this. Probably close to this comparison of them would be George Kirby, because it's still a fastball-heavy arm. arsenal. He kind of mixed in a bunch of secondaries that all came together to give him a secondary that allowed him to take this big leap. I only have him 32nd next year. I'm a shocked he finished as high as he did.

32nd is still high. Like I have Zach Galen 33rd. So it's still like a good range of the starting pitcher rankings, but it's not seventh. And then Lugo I don't even have in the top 40. Yeah, Lugo. I don't know. like I have seen much smarter people than me suggest that the mere fact that Seth Lugo throws so many pitches and adjust his arm angle and like he throws what nine pitches but yeah will change his arm angle slightly to the point where like it might really be like 11 or 12 pitches functionally um that might enable him to just completely outrun his peripherals in a way that that might enable him to just completely outrun his peripherals in a way that. that's sustainable.

Like this is something that MLB teams are looking into. And I think we're seeing more deep arsenals. So it's possible. It just relies on him continuing to be a huge outlier in a way that I never feel comfortable projecting. And so if I'm going to miss on Seth Lugo, I guess I'm going to miss on Seth Lugo. So I was saying earlier that, you know, starting pitcher field, feels really deep, but it's not just guys who happen to perform well because it was a pitcher-friendly season. The talent looks like it's there.

Seth Lugo seems like the pitcher, if the environment changed, if the overall pitching environment changed, would go to potentially being just a fringe guy in fantasy. And for what it's worth, 2.40A. in the first half for Seth Lugo, 384 in the second half. So we saw some regression. The highs were really high in the second half and the lows were really low. He still had. It was like the Mitch Keller second half from his last year. 14 starts, I think it was. He had eight starts of at least seven innings, I think.

It was it was bonkers. It was like he was either an ace or kind of useless in the second half. It was a weird stretch. I think something like the 384 are in the second half is what I'm expecting. Yeah. And I think the underlying peripheral ERA indicators kind of line up with something like that for Seth Lugo. as well. The number nine and ten starting pitchers we had Corbyn Burns and Franber Valdez. Burns was the

SP6 in head to head points. Valdez did miss some time but he was the SP7 in head to head points per game. So yeah, two of the, they get a little bit of a bump in that format. They just throw so many innings both of these guys. Burns, a free agent this offseason. He's become one of the faces of the game, frankly, but obviously just starting pitchers in general. He's a workhorse. But the strikeout skills, they have consistently been falling. He did talk about tweaking his cutter and the strikeouts went up in September. How much do we trust something like that? And Frambervaldez, he remains consistent year in and year out.

This year we did see a new level of upside. He upped his curveball usage mid-season. And over the final 14 starts, Frambervaldez had a 208 ERA, a 0.96 whip, 10K per 9, and 12.7% swinging strike rate. So, Scott, how much do you worry about those strikeouts continuing to fall for Corbyn Burns? And do you think Framber Valdez has unlocked a new level? I think Corbin Burns completely redeemed himself in my mind in September. I totally buy the explanation he gave with the cutter.

It went to a lot of details. An article in the Baltimore banner. He had been throwing his cutter with too much spin. It didn't have the same movement on it. He didn't worry about it so much. he was having so much success with his breaking balls, but hitters eventually caught up to that. So he went to work on the cutter,

saw the velo and spin go down, and he was a lot more effective overall. So I think Corbin Burns is fine. I don't know if you disagree, Chris. You look like you jump in there. No, I think the quote that I keep coming back to with Corby Burns when he explained his cutter, he had a really bad August.

And he said his cutter was basically a bleepy, four Seamer. More colorful language was his choice. But yeah, he's my number four SP. I know Jason Collette from Roto Wire at first pitch Arizona had a talk where he mentioned, Corbyn's thrown over 3,000 pitches three years in a row. And the track record for pitchers who have done that recently is very, very poor. They pretty much all get hurt. I don't know how to feel about. that because over a long enough time span, all pitchers get hurt. And so if you tell me a pitcher hasn't gotten hurt in three years, I would say, yeah, he might get hurt before. That sounds like he's due, but I also think all pitchers are due for injury. And it's just a question of when it happens.

Will it happen in 2025 or 2026? I don't know. So I'm pretty much back in on Corbyn Burns as the top of the second tier at starting pitcher. As for Valdez from Berravaldez so did you give the numbers the final 13 starts 191 er a 0.89 whip 10.3k per 9 clearly a different from Berraise as good as he's already been over the years with that increased curveball use as established as he is as long as he's been doing this I don't know that we can necessarily trust him to maintain that increased curveball usage and in fact it began to go down again over that 13 start stretch And as did the strikeout rate in September. Yeah, yeah. I rank him 13th, so I think I'm on the more optimistic end in my approach to Framber Valdez for next year. But I'm not totally sanguine about it.

I think he is a totally fine if you take hitters in your first four picks or even five and you wind up with Valdez as your SP1 just waiting. I think it could be totally serviceable. If you look at what he's done over the past three seasons, it is a 306 ERA and a 113 whip with below a strikeout per inning,

so maybe you pair him with more upside guys that get whiffs and all that. But in terms of just an anchor that's going to give you a low threes ERA, he's on a good team, he pitches innings, he's going to give you wins.

I mean, he feels like one of the safer starting pitchers if you can call a pitcher safe. but solid SP1 phenomenal SP2 like that's one where if you could manage to get him as your SP2 I kind of think you just don't think about starting pitching

for like 10 rounds yeah yeah I get what you're saying the way it breaks down for me at starting pitcher and this is going to be kind of a separate conversation I guess and we don't need to go that deep into it today but that range I have Valdez

and I said I'm 13th I've been saying 15 to 50, you could almost rank them in any order. So Valdez is right in that group where if somebody had them ranked 23rd instead of 13th where I have them, I don't know that I'd really bat an eye at it. It's just a lot about, it's just a lot of what do you value most personal taste, what risk factors concern you most, that sort of thing. And I think the risk for Valdez is pretty low.

The number 11 starting pitcher was Dylan Seas and number 12, according to the Fangraph's playwriter was Rennell Blanco. So, Cece was SP 8 and had dead points. Blanco, he ranked quite a bit lower and had dead points because he spent some time in the bullpen. He did miss some starts. But Sees'

first season in San Diego was a success. A 347 ERA, 107 whip. Massive strikeout numbers. The best walk rate of his career. Chris, you've said this many times. Seas feels like a pitcher. You buy when he's coming off of a bad year. Maybe you fade when he's coming off of a good year like this. But

He did make some improvements. And Blanco really kind of came out of nowhere. Huge breakout, 280 ERA 109 whip. Strong swinging strike rate, but also lots of walks. And each of his ERA indicators was 3.97 or higher. So not buying it and expecting lots of regression here. Chris, your thoughts on Dillon CIS as a borderline SP1 and I don't know, just a huge breakout from Ronell Blanco.

Renel, great story, incredible season. I think he's a streamer for 2025. I don't know, like, back of rotation guy, fine. That's like your SP 7 or 8, but I can't imagine chasing him. So you have him that low. You have him like 75th? Yeah, that's where I'm thinking. I haven't gotten that deep in it yet.

And I think I only did top 50 at starting pitcher. I have him 55, which is not high. It's certainly not high compared to 12th where he just finished. But I do have them outside that top 50 I was referring to that I think. So he had an argument in being in the top 20. Slightly above average strikeout rate, but not much. 8.9. Yeah, for as good as the swinging strike rate was, the strikeout rate,

the K-per-9 didn't live up to it. Really poor walk rate. Fastball get hit hard. Overall quality of contact is just kind of average-ish. And so, yeah, he looks like a 4-ERA pitcher without much strikeout upside to me. And he had a 110 inning jump from last year, which the Astros were trying to limit as the season went on. So it just I don't see upside. I see a lot of risk.

It's just not a profile that I find myself wanting to chase very often. Now, cease, you know, you said buy off the bad years, sell off the good years. This feels like a pretty happy medium, though. Like, I feel like if you, I'm sure someone could do this. I don't have it in front of me, but I feel like if you averaged his previous three seasons since the 2021 mini breakout, he probably comes out to around a 350 ERA. I don't necessarily expect the walk rate to remain quite as good as it was last year since we have a multi-year stretch of him being more like 10%. It was 8.5%, but you're talking about a percentage point one way or the other.

So I don't think that really worries me. I think for all that Dylan sees has been a source of controversy in fantasy baseball, I kind of think he just is what he is at this point. And what he is is a really solid pitcher, I think probably a little too combustible to be an ace for your fantasy team. But this is a guy, another one where I don't know the last time Dylan C's missed a start. Yeah. It hasn't happened at the Major League level at any point, I don't think. He's made a full complement of starts going back to 2020, 2019. He made 29 starts between the majors.

of miners, 2018, he made 23, 2017, he made 22. Like, I don't think Dillon C's, I don't know if Dillen C's, someone can correct me in, in the comments or email if you want, but I don't know if Dillen Cs has missed a start for any reason in like seven years. So maybe a slightly more volatile version of what we've talked about with Framber Valdez, where like, love that as my SP2. But I do feel like the ratios are a little more volatile with Dylan cease, where anything from a 450 to a 250 ERA really would not surprise me.

Everybody's going to have CIS in the top 10, though. I would assume. Yeah. So, yeah, I have a ninth. And I don't really disagree with anything you're saying there. He's 10th in the early ADP, just behind Jacob de Grom. Okay. Okay.

Yeah, I mean, he did a, he did a, he improved his walk rate this year. It wasn't a great walk rate, but it was improved. And if he can continue with that, there isn't a lot of reason for doubt. He was kind of the worst control pitcher in baseball, a guy who started as consistently as he did coming into this year. And came out of it not being that anymore. Nobody's downing the strikeout potential for Dylan cease. I think pitching in San Diego helps them. And I'm pretty cool with them.

I don't know that I'm drafting any top of my top 10 pitchers unless I get a huge discount for them, which probably isn't going to be cease. His 80s 45 overall, which feels pretty reasonable when you look at like Chris sales 36. Certainly rather have cease, you know, 10 spots later, 12 spots later. whatever it is. I would too. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a 5-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.