Fantasy Baseball Today - Steals and Saves Sleepers; Mini Mailbag Friday! (06/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 12, 2020

Today on the show we're attacking the best categories... STEALS AND SAVES! First, summer is here and Frank shares a bold prediction. What's the deal with stolen bases (5:48)? What did you need in 2019... to compete in this category and do sleepers even exist? ... Who are some of our favorite sleepers for steals (11:47)? Can guys like Garrett Hampson, Kevin Newman and Ender Inciarte help us? ... Adam reveals why you should be aggressive when drafting Trea Turner in the first round (21:25). ... Frank reveals a handful of deep sleepers for steals (22:45), including Tim Locastro, Myles Straw, Jorge Mateo and more. ... What is the current state of saves and why does it suck (23:55)? How do you identify potential sleepers for saves (29:09)? Does it make sense to try and handcuff Mark Melancon and Will Smith? Which of the Rays relievers do we prefer? Why does everybody hate Brandon Kintzler? ... Adam provides a trivia question regarding teams who have not had repeat saves leaders (42:28)! ... Then we answer some of your mailbag questions! Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:02 Domingo. Gills and saves, everybody's favorite categories. Happy Kokomo Friday here on fantasy baseball today. June 12th, Frank Stample, along with Pocket Aces, Adam Mazer, Scotty Doves, Scott White, and C. P.T. Chris Towers. Guys, I'm in a great mood today. And the main reason was I took out my trash.
Starting point is 00:00:49 And I realized that summer is basically here. I don't know about you guys, but I am a big fan of the warm weather. Yeah. So you're like, what does that do with your trash? Like you have a calendar in the trash that has the start of summer? No, I took the trash out and I realized that the weather was nice. There are days where I just don't go outside now because of the shop. I just sort of figured that you lived in an apartment and you threw it down a shoot. No, I live in a basement, so I have to bring it outside. Oh, okay. Yeah, it is nice out. Welcome to the outside world. No. No. Chris, not a fan of the summer. I mean, I guess, okay, so this is the first time I'm actually experiencing a summer that will end eventually. So like maybe that novelty will help.
Starting point is 00:01:33 But, you know, growing up in South Florida, 31 years, I'm a, I'm a, you know, a larger person. I generate a lot of body heat already. I'm hairy. And so the summer is just a disaster for me. It really like, I'm just like a walking, I don't even know how to describe it in a way that won't really turn everyone off from the podcast. But needless to say, summer months do not treat me well. And so maybe knowing that like by mid-August, and you guys can correct me if I'm wrong, it'll start to cool down. And then it's like, oh, well, okay, yeah, that's fine.
Starting point is 00:02:17 August is much better in New York than. Florida. Well, it's a Florida, August is hell. Like July is probably the only month in New York where it's like as bad as Florida. Because Florida doesn't really get hot. Listen, listen. As somebody who's only lived in South Florida 13 years now, so not the 31 years you lived here, Chris. But long enough that I would have gotten tired of it if I was going to get tired of it.
Starting point is 00:02:45 I never want to go back. I never want to go back to ever experience a cold weather. You're a skinny little thing. You're all skin and bones and sinew. That's how it's supposed to work. I've got like... No, like, uh... And I grew up in Georgia, so it never even got...
Starting point is 00:03:03 I mean, you know, it gets down to freezing in the winter, but not for months at a time. It's still, it's... It's... Going back to visit family and experiencing it all over again, it felt a hundred times worse than I remembered it. I didn't mind it so much. Adam gave me a weird look when I said South Florida
Starting point is 00:03:19 doesn't get that. hot. The relative temperature in South Florida during the summer months is actually very comparable to most of the East Coast. Where it gets extremely hot. Right. But it gets like, it gets like, the average high in South Florida is usually like 89 to 90 degrees. The problem is it's 8 million percent humidity. Yeah, right. Gross. Of 88 to 90 degrees. Just absolutely gross. You know, it gets to like 92 in the summer, it's humid, it stinks. No offense. You know, I live here now. It's just, you know, you got trash all over the sidewalks. It's kind of how this place works. And so that's pretty miserable. July is, I've been here in July several times. It's tough. But, you know,
Starting point is 00:04:05 all right. Well, we're not going to talk about weather in the summer for the entirety of the podcast today on the show. We're going to give you some sleepers in the steals and saves categories. Plus, we have a mini mailbag later on in the show. But first, I have a, bold prediction for you guys. Are you ready? Yes. Yes. All right. Adam's not right. Adam's ready. We'll do it now. By this time Monday, June 15th, I predict MLB will have a season announced. Boom, goes the dynamite. That one's for you,
Starting point is 00:04:33 Scott. Well, yeah. That's, that was reported. John Heyman said the time, said, is that who you're talking about? That's who reported it, Chris, or did you see it somewhere else. I think it was John Heyman. It might have been someone else. I think I saw you quote tweet them. Yeah, yeah. I quote tweeted John Heyman and he said likely if there's not an agreement in the next five days, it's likely that Rob Manfred would enforce the approximately 50 game schedule. So the wording there, I mean, I'm not sure how official that is. I'm not sure if it's just John Heyman
Starting point is 00:05:09 theorizing himself or if he's actually heard something. But yeah, that's the that's the closest thing to a timeline I've seen so far. So, you know, maybe not necessarily Monday afternoon, but early next week. All right, maybe not so bold. I'll just- Frank, I thought you were going to say you were excited at the top of the show because the Pokemon expansion is coming next week. Well, that too, but I wasn't going to really reveal my Pokemon fandom on the podcast. Just live it, own it, man. It's who you are. It's part of you. I have no problem with that whatsoever. But I don't think anyone wants to hear about Pokemon. I think they want to hear about Steve. And they want to hear about saves.
Starting point is 00:05:47 So let's jump in the most fun categories of all time. Last year, 2,280 stolen bases were the lowest since 1994. In 2019, you needed about 150 steals to finish first place in that category in a 12-team Roto League. That averages out to almost 11 steals per starting hitter. It's like 10.7. there were just eight players with 30 plus steals last season. There were 21 with 20 or more steals. That includes the likes of Gerard Dyson, Delano DeShield, Billy Hamilton,
Starting point is 00:06:23 Manuel Margot, likely players who were not in your lineup for reference. In 2018, there were three more players with 30 or more stolen bases. There were seven more with 20 or more steals. All right, Scott, kick us off here. steals, we've talked all about them for the past, I don't know, six months basically, as long as we've been prepping for the fantasy baseball season. We know that they're scarce. How are you attacking the category?
Starting point is 00:06:52 And is it possible to find sleepers in this category anymore? It is. It is. Yeah, I think it is. But it's not ones, it's not people you could call sleepers with a high degree of confidence, I would say, because who knows how things are going to continue to trend from here. I assume steels are going to continue to fall.
Starting point is 00:07:17 You mentioned it was the lowest since 1994. 1994 was the strike shortened season, only 114 games long. So for a full-length season, I'm not sure I could look this up quickly, but I would suspect it's probably the fewest stolen bases ever. And what we're seeing...
Starting point is 00:07:36 That's why you're smarter than me, Scott, because I didn't even remember that there was a strike-shortened season. But I will look it up. you're talking about about 114 games 94 yeah so so yeah the way we're seeing people approach it in rotisserie leagues is is obviously the guys that you can depend on stealing bases particularly if they do something anything else are going very early it's it's a category that needs to be addressed early because the kind of people who could still contribute to it late like that list you rattled off at the beginning frank it you really don't want any
Starting point is 00:08:11 part of them based on how they're going to bring you down elsewhere. So like you're not going to find a guy who delivers like a 40 steel pace out of nowhere. If somebody is a stolen base sleeper it's because they might eke out
Starting point is 00:08:30 20 in a full season in a way that goes overlooked. Somebody like Nick Senzel or or somebody like I mean, I guess even somebody like Aristides Zanio, he was seven for seven with a little bit of time of, maybe he could do something like that. And then, you know, that's 20 steel pays.
Starting point is 00:08:50 You're talking about in a full season, the way that could get, what that would translate to in a 50-game season or something much shorter than a full-length season, you're talking like somebody who gives you, what, five, six, seven steals. That's what you're looking at as a sleeper. And that makes for a wider range of possible players who could do that, but it also makes it even less predictable because it's likely the guys we were counting on giving stolen bases just go a couple weeks without steals. Since it's not a high threshold, we're talking about having to be met over a full-length season,
Starting point is 00:09:26 and then, and then, you know, where are you? So, yeah, it's not a category you want to fill late, for sure. All right, I think I have the answer on the season that had the few. stolen bases. Was 1973 a shortened season? No, but the league has added four teams,
Starting point is 00:09:48 if not more? Since then, I think the expansion was 67. Was there another one between that in 94? No, there was, 1973 was the lowest before 1994, 1981? That was a strike short in season, yes. All right, so 2019, basically
Starting point is 00:10:04 in the modern day has produced the lowest level of steals that we've seen in fantasy baseball. And we talk about this a lot. When it comes to steals, I mean, they are not a correlated stat with anything else. I mean, they're an individual stat and largely produced by motivation. I mean, it's hard to project steals. It just comes down to our managers going to allow their players to run.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Do the guys want to run? Because I know that we know that there's a lot of players that are capable of stealing bases, but this is just such an odd category for fantasy, but it is part of the traditional five-by-five, and I don't think it's going away anytime soon. So we've got to learn to kind of cope and adjust with where stolen bases are at right now. And it shouldn't go away.
Starting point is 00:10:53 It's a really difficult challenge, but it's... You're right. It's part of it, and it's frustrating, but could you imagine playing without steals? That's so weak. That's like, eliminate tight end. No. It's just...
Starting point is 00:11:05 I agree. It's basically drafted guys who hit the most home runs if you eliminate steals. That takes away a lot of the strategy of building a five-by-five team. And just 2019 had almost 200 fewer stolen bases than 2018. Since the league became a 30-team league, it's by far the lowest. You know, 2019 and 2018 are the first years below 2,500. But if the ball changes and they hit fewer home runs, then maybe we see a,
Starting point is 00:11:36 it's not like they're going to be abundant, there's still going to be scarcity, but maybe it goes back to like 2018 levels. Yeah, extra base hits, takeaway from stolen base opportunities. Yeah. All right, so let's look into some of those potential steals sleepers here.
Starting point is 00:11:51 Scott, I know that you've been writing articles all week long, CBSports.com, that had basically accompanied these podcasts. So, I mean, who did you find when it comes to stolen bases? Well, so, Like I said, it's more players who could maybe deliver a 20 steals pace over a full season
Starting point is 00:12:13 than like a 30 or 40 steals pace. And if you can find somebody who could deliver that closer to elite pace, then you're probably sacrificing a lot elsewhere. I'm thinking of guys like Malick Smith and Jared Dyson of the pirates who should play close to every day for them. They would fit into that category. A guy like John Bertie also would fit into that category. I don't think he brings much to the table other than stolen bases,
Starting point is 00:12:40 but I think he'll play a lot for the Marlins. And based on what he did in limited time last year and throughout the minor league career, he should run a lot. A guy like Garrett Hampson might fit into that category, but I do have more hope for our upside from him as a hitter, specifically, especially in terms of batting average and runs scored, depending where he bats in the Rockies lineup. Somebody like Lorenzo Kane, who's going 182nd over.
Starting point is 00:13:05 Overall, he could get back to more like a 25-30 steals pace after he stole. I think it was 18 last year. But in a down year for a down year for him in terms of batting average, getting on base. And it doesn't seem like the skill set is actually diminished much there. Another sleeper who could maybe give you a lot of steals is Nick Madrigal, but that's dependent on when he enters the White Sox lineup and how much they let him run. Historically, they haven't been a team that have let some of their,
Starting point is 00:13:35 Big minor league base Steelers continue to do that in the majors. And that's about it in terms of really impactful steals production from late rounders. Maybe Byron Buxton, if he stays healthy, though his game, there's enough power in his game that I'm not totally sure. Last year's half-season pace would translate to a full season. but yeah then after that you're looking at guys like I said Nick Senzel Jean Sagura though he bounces back with a pace closer to what he was delivering
Starting point is 00:14:15 before Gibb Kappler was his manager Scott Kingery probably could give you that 20 steals pace Kyle Tucker has a chance to for the Astros depending on how much she plays Will Myers that's actually Will Myers is actually I think a good one I don't expect a huge steals total from him, but he's just so far down in ADP. He's going 270th overall,
Starting point is 00:14:38 and I don't think there's really any reason to worry about the playing time with the DH coming to the NL. And he's been a consistent 20-steel guy, at least pacing out to 600 play to parents, basically throughout his career, even when things have gone poorly. Yep. Yep, so I think he's being overlooked for that.
Starting point is 00:14:57 I mentioned to Kino, who might be for the same reason, just no faith in the playing time. And even with the D.H, it's not clear how much Aristides Aquino would play because there's also finding time for Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel. So that could remain an issue.
Starting point is 00:15:12 Sam Hilliard's kind of in that same boat. I think it could be a pretty good steel source, but how much he's going to play, Dylan Carlson kind of the same way. Is anybody like Kevin Newman? Yeah, I was going to bring him up. Not really. I think Kevin Newman is interesting.
Starting point is 00:15:29 Yeah, look, I mean, batting average in steals last year. He had a 28 steel season in the minors. He played like 130 games last year and had like 16 steals or something. Yeah. And I, it's not, it's not nothing,
Starting point is 00:15:44 16, but. Well, but that's 130 games. So he could definitely get to 20. And he's going to potentially lead off for bad second in the Pirates lineup. He goes after the 200th pick. He's a little outside of the top 200.
Starting point is 00:15:56 I think it's very possible that he just has like a horrible year and doesn't hit well. But if you get a guy who, as we did last year, batted 308 with 16 steals, and he also hits toward the top of the order, he might be able to score 90 runs. Kevin Newman's worth a look. Yeah, I think there are other names even beyond that. You know, first of all, there are some higher, like, we can define the question in a couple ways. And one way is higher-end guys who are not sleepers, but have some sleeper potential for stolen bases. So I would say David Dahl, someone we talked about the other day,
Starting point is 00:16:32 who said he wants to run more. Yohan Moncada is another guy who has talked about wanting to run more. And then the White Sox have talked about wanting him to run more. The biggest issue for him, you know, he's got like 74th percentile sprint speed on Stadcast. The biggest issue for him, he's had these constant recurring hamstring injuries that he did work out this year trying to focus on becoming more flexible to avoid that. If that happens, you know, he was a six. steel guy in the minors per 150 games.
Starting point is 00:17:01 There's, you know, really 30 steel potential there, I think, fairly easily if he decides to do it. I'll also throw out then some lower end guys who need playing time, but could get to 25 to 30 steals if they get it. Someone like Ender Enciarte, you know, I'm not sure he's going to play all that regularly, but if he does, he's a stolen base threat for sure. Delano DeShields, another guy that Frank mentioned earlier in the season, I'm not sure he deserves to be an everyday player. But especially if you played in an OBP league
Starting point is 00:17:32 and he does play pretty regularly, he could be a 30-steel-paced guy who doesn't kill you in on-base percentage because he does draw walks fairly regularly. I just want to throw Kyle Tucker in there. He was a 30-stile-paced guy. He and David Dahl are the two. I love drafting them.
Starting point is 00:17:54 Love drafting both of them. Yeah, Ender and Ciarte is a good call. We haven't really talked much about him, and we've mentioned Austin Riley being a huge beneficiary of the Universal DH, but I think those two kind of go hand in hand because of Austin Riley can play DH, and that means Ender NCRT can play in the outfield. So I think that that's a good call in a name that we haven't really brought up here. I have some deeper names that I'll just kind of like throw out there,
Starting point is 00:18:19 and you guys can throw the name. You could say whether or not you're interested or not. Kevin Kiermeyer. mildly. Yeah. There's so many guys in Tampa Bay. Colton. Hard to see him playing every day.
Starting point is 00:18:35 And not enough stolen base upside to justify the hitting downside. But he's like one of the best center fielder's in baseball. So wouldn't he be someone that actually would play close to every day, if not every day? I think the plan is for him and Margot to split. Yeah, they did trade for Manuel Margot. All right. Then no. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:55 19 steals for Kirste. Meier last year. He's hovered between 15 and 20 the past couple of seasons, and even in some shorten seasons, too. 16 and 98 games. You've got to have deep lineups to even think about players like this because... Oh, yeah, these are deeper names. They hit so... But it's not just like...
Starting point is 00:19:13 You've got to start a lot of players because they're such bad hitters. Maybe Kiermire. You can make a case that Kiermeier when he's healthy is actually a decent hitter. But the line is just a bad hitter. I'm pretty sure I didn't see Kiermeyer or... DeShields drafted for a starting spot in any of my 15 team five outfielder leagues. Maybe on the bench, but not as a starter. I will say one name that Frank said, who's not a horrible hitter, is Colton Wong.
Starting point is 00:19:42 He doesn't have the power that we kind of hoped he would grow into, but he's hit 285, two of the last three seasons. He stole 24 bases. The stolen bases were kind of an outlier for him, but I put together, this tool that I'm going to try to find a way to put out for people. I'm not sure exactly how yet, but basically you put, you can search for a player and it'll show you kind of their projected range of outcomes. And I had initially talked about doing it just for batting average. But I did kind of figure out a way to do it for every stat. And for Colton Long, you know, his range of outcomes for batting average and stolen bases, even in a 50 game season, you know, because he does draw walks,
Starting point is 00:20:24 he could be a 10 steel guy in a 50 game season if, you know, things go right for him. Yeah, I like Wong for this. He's actually one of the 10 I mentioned in the column. I limit myself to only 10. And Wong is one of them, I mean, 24 out of 28 last year. And you mentioned he didn't develop the power, we hoped you would. It looks like he finally determined last year that he doesn't need to be a power hitter, the way his batted ball profile changed over the course of the season.
Starting point is 00:20:54 and he hit like $3.50 in the second half. I mean, obviously, I don't expect him to do that over a full season, but it was just, it was a committing to, it seemed like he was committing to being a certain type of player that might end up being more appropriate for his skill set and could make him more of a fantasy asset because of it. Yeah, he did though. Colton Wong stole 21 bases in 356 games
Starting point is 00:21:16 in the three seasons before 2019. This is why it's tough, as you said, Frank, it's a tough stat to project. And it makes you wonder if you really should be taking Trey Turner seventh overall or something like that. I mean, I'm in on that. But if he doesn't steal bases, he's going to steal some bases. But if he's not a great base dealer, how can you justify taking him over Freddie Freeman, Nolan Aaronada? Like these guys were just much, much better hitters.
Starting point is 00:21:47 Because in terms of just like OPS, he's going to be one of the worst first round hitters, of not the worst first round hitter, Trey Turner. So I'll do it, but there's definitely some risk there because if he doesn't, and they were talking about batting him third potentially.
Starting point is 00:22:02 Yeah, that's not going to happen, though. The one thing he does have going for him, you know, I think as spring training went on, they seemed pretty much certain that he was going to be moving,
Starting point is 00:22:11 you know, staying in the leadoff spot. So I think that concern because his stolen bases have been very dependent on where he hit in the lineup. But it does sound like he's going to be hitting
Starting point is 00:22:22 lead off. And as long as that's the case, I still expect, you know, maybe the 70s steel pace that we once dreamed of is probably gone, but I would still think like a 40 steel pace. Yeah, which is more bad news for Victor Robles because that likely pushes him down the lineup. I'd have to imagine Adam Eaton batting second there for the Washington Nationals. I'll just throw out a few deep names quickly. Gerard Dyson, we've already mentioned. He's going to play for the pirates. as long as he's on the roster. I don't know if there's going to be a trade deadline. Harrison Bader, someone who ranks very highly in sprint speed.
Starting point is 00:22:59 Miles Straw, if he just gets the opportunity, I think he's one of the fastest players in baseball. Tim LaCastro actually did rank number one in sprint speed last year. And then Randy Arosurana for the Tampa Bay raise and Jorge Mateo. Former Yankee great, Adam. I got a few more. Oh.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Risha Dubon. He was a... I like Dubon. A 20 to 30. steel guy in the miners. Not great efficiency in last year that pace slowed. So we'll see if that part of his game carries over, but should hit enough, at least to stay in the lineup for the Giants. And Jose Parraza, if he plays second base every day for the Red Sox, could have an opportunity to be a contributor in batting average runs and stolen bases like he was two years ago.
Starting point is 00:23:50 Yeah, that's an interesting call there. I like that one on Piraza. Let's move on to saves here. Like stolen bases, I mean, the landscape for saves has just completely changed. We've referenced this stat before. I know you have specifically Chris from Alex Fast of Pitcher List, but he points out that 204 different pitchers racked up a save last season, which is by far the most over the past five years. And I didn't look further than five years. That's what his tweet had, but it might be the most ever. So it just there's no just like the
Starting point is 00:24:25 idea of like one true closer is just kind of falling by the wayside I disagree I think that I think that that whole thing about teams going committee
Starting point is 00:24:40 is a little overrated now I don't think we can say it's falling by the wayside I definitely feel like there are more committees but I do honestly think that most managers want to get one guy in that role.
Starting point is 00:24:55 Last year, Craig Kimball was bad. Kenley Janssen was bad. A role as Chapman was good, but did you get hurt? I don't remember. Like the studs, they didn't rack up high saves totals. We had Kirby Yates lead baseball with 41 saves. The lowest save total for, I think Chris looked it up. It was a non-strike season since 84, I think.
Starting point is 00:25:15 84, yeah. So the lowest amount of saves to lead baseball. but I still think that teams want to find one guy. I really do think that you'll find like the rays are probably going to spread it around a little bit, which is why when you get into Sleepers, Jose Alvarado is my favorite. But I don't really think we're getting too far away from just like every team that has a good closer uses that good closer. Yeah, we're certainly not getting there fast. I think we have, we're a little more of that direction than we used to be.
Starting point is 00:25:48 and that stat Frank gave bears it out. But by the end of last season, which teams were going with the closing committee? Even the rays weren't. Even the rays were going to Emilio put gone consistently. I think the nationals were because of Sean Doolittle's health concerns. But there weren't many teams that by the end of last season were still doing the committee thing.
Starting point is 00:26:07 I think good teams will, that's probably like if you can find that guy, teams are likely to stick with them. Even a team like the athletics who, I want to say, think the stat is they haven't had the same person lead their team in saves in consecutive years since Grant Balfour. Grant Balfour, like eight years ago, I think.
Starting point is 00:26:27 But even they tend to stick with a closer once one emerges, they just do not have a long leash for the guys who enter the season. And so I think, you know, it depends on the team. It depends on the closer. I think the Cubs had nine different players. Yeah. Cubs had nine different players get a save last. season. Like, that's crazy. That's not normal. But they were waiting, they were trying to find a
Starting point is 00:26:52 closer. They didn't find one until they paid Kimbril. They paid a lot of money to sign Craig Kimbril. So you would imagine that that's not going to be a team that if Crembril is effective, now I think you can look at the Mets and say the same thing. If Edwin Diaz is effective or if he's not effective, but Delon Batances comes back from his injury at full strength, those are going to be teams that do have one closer, presumably. It's just a question of whether those guys, can be effective. So, Frank, you're on to something. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:27:21 I didn't mean to make it seem like what you were saying was completely wrong. No, no. I just, I do believe that teams want to find, like, even the Phillies, you know,
Starting point is 00:27:32 with the Kapler. I think that he tried to make Hector Nerris the closer, you know, eventually. No, no, no, no. No, don't give Gabe Kapler the benefit of the doubt. He tried, he tried,
Starting point is 00:27:42 I can't stand him. I'm not to make. Sorry, go ahead. No, it was like, opening day. Opening day last year. I remember it. Opening day, 2018. Everybody thought Hector Nerris was the closer.
Starting point is 00:27:54 Gabe Kapler comes out. It's like the first day. He throws someone completely out of, it was like Pat Nysheck or something. Like, he tried to get way too cute with it when it came to Gabe Kapler. He tried to get the committee. Yes.
Starting point is 00:28:07 And then had to eventually be like, okay, Nerris is the only one who can really do this. And that's the thing is that it requires an incredibly patient hand to really buy into a committee because it's one of those things. This happens in any sport when you're talking about trying to do something different. And even now in 2020, when teams have been going with committees for 20 years or more,
Starting point is 00:28:31 and the advanced analytics say that you shouldn't just save your best pitcher for the save situation, even now knowing that and having that become a mainstream idea, you still have to be willing to take a lot of heat if you use, your best reliever in the eighth and your second best reliever blows it in the night. That's something that you're going to take a lot of criticism for, and you have to have the faith from your front office and a willingness to take that heat. And what we see is typically managers will eventually skew towards one guy.
Starting point is 00:29:08 All right, Scott. So with all of that being said, how does one identify? I guess it's not really a sleeper. Like, no one's sleeping on closer candidates or anyone that can rack up saves. We all know all the bullpens at this point. So I guess it's just, you know, what is your process for finding late round relievers that could potentially pick up saves throughout the course of the season? Yeah, I changed my standard for what I was calling a sleeper for this category.
Starting point is 00:29:34 It had been anyone drafted 160 and beyond according to ADP, but that's too many people that are, we expect to fill the closer roll. like can you call Jose LeClerc a save sleeper? Can you call Keone Kele a save sleeper? They're their team's intended closers. I guess there's an argument to be made that they'll get more than people are expecting. But now that's not the way I wanted to go about it. So I just, I'm thinking of guys who either aren't already in line for the closer role
Starting point is 00:30:04 or if they are, nobody's taking their candidacy to see that seriously. That's, that those, so they tend to get, you know, they tend to go really late in drafts. So, you know, I look to guys like both of the Braves, I think, could be called Save Sleepers, Will Smith because he doesn't have the role yet in Mark Melanson because he's actually getting drafted later than Will Smith. Which seems silly. Would you ever draft them both together, Scott? Like handcuffing relievers? I would.
Starting point is 00:30:38 For the Braves, it could work because they're a great team. Honestly, I was torn on whether. to call Will Smith a sleeper, because he is clearly one of the non-closers with the best chance of becoming a closer, but he's going 167th overall on average. So it's almost like he has more bust potential than sleeper potential at that rate. But I mean, he should be a good reliever even if he isn't a closer. So in leagues where that matters, I think maybe it makes the most sense. But the Rockies are kind of the same way where Scott Oberg is going ahead of Wade Davis,
Starting point is 00:31:07 I think probably more justifiably. But still, I mean, Wade Davis could bounce. back and be a steady source of saves for that team. So I have them both on my closer sleepers list. I have Corey Kinebel, who we've talked about a lot lately. I'm actually leaning to Seth Lugo in the Mets bullpen as the fallback option for Edwin Diaz. I know Chris mentioned Delin Patensis earlier.
Starting point is 00:31:31 And Adam mentioned Jose Alvarado for the raise. I'm actually going with Diego Castillo as the guy who could sneakily lead that team in saves. So those are some of the guys I'm looking at. I think Alvarado is, well, I think he's better, but, you know, he, so he got off to a good start. Then he had family issues. He had to go back to Venezuela. His mother was ill. His parents now live with him.
Starting point is 00:31:57 This was research I did a few months ago, so I hope it's still true. His parents now live with him. When he came back last year, this is Jose Alvarado for the race. He was out of shape. He dealt with an oblique injury. He had elbow inflammation. he was, you know, he was bad last year, at least once the family stuff started and then coming back out of shape. But before that, 239 ERA in 2018, he was great in 2018.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Yes, Diego Castillo could definitely factor in there as well. And then, of course, you have Nick Anderson, who's the favorite. But I think, I feel like Alvarado was really on the rise, you know, kind of like this new elite reliever. We'll see what happens. But I do draft him a lot because the Rays are one team where I think all three of those guys are going to have some saves. And I think Alvarado is good enough to own just to get your ratios down. Chris, what do you think? Do you have any, do you target maybe relievers that are not the closer yet, that are on teams with shaky situations, who you know are good? Like James Carin-Chack comes to mind
Starting point is 00:32:59 for me, Kevin Ginkle comes to mine from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Is that what you're looking for in a sleeper? Or do you just try to maybe gobble up some of these committee guys like Matt McGill, or Yoshi Hirano from the Seattle Mariners. What do you think? There are other guys who aren't necessarily in committees who could be worth targeting as well. So it's really a combination of all three. I'll go after the high upside setup man
Starting point is 00:33:25 if it makes sense for my roster. But sometimes I'll go after Brandon Kinsler. Yeah. I might get the saves for the Marlins and who might be pretty good. I'll go after. Homer. I'm glad you mentioned Kinsler because he's actually on my list of 10 here too, just because it seems like nobody wants him.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Yeah, I'll throw a Hunter Harvey, who I'm starting to target in a lot of our drafts because he's got closer stuff. It doesn't seem like it's going to work. It seems like the chances of him becoming a starter are long gone. And so he was mentioned as someone who could be in that closer's role, and he could be very good, which is not something you can really say necessarily
Starting point is 00:34:04 about anybody else in that Orioles bullpen. I don't know if Sean Doolittle counts. You know, he's 189th overall. I think he's better than that ranking. He's someone I like drafting a lot this year. Injuries are always a concern, but when he's healthy, I think he's very good. Better chance of holding up this year, right?
Starting point is 00:34:28 Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's a short season, so you would hope so. I do like taking Corey Canable late in drafts now. and here's a weird one. Well, Blake Trinan is another one who was an elite closer two years ago. If something happens to Kenley Jansen, he figures to be the closer there. A weird one that I just thought about, who I like as both a sleeper, reliever, and starter is Freddie Peralta. Because it sounds like they're going to give him a chance in the rotation one more time. He was working on adding, I believe, a curveball to his repertoire.
Starting point is 00:35:02 because right now he's basically basically a fastball pitcher with a show me slider. You know, if he can become a three-pitch starter, I think there's a ton of potential there, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he ended up in the bullpen and turned into an elite bullpen arm,
Starting point is 00:35:20 and if, you know, Corey Knable doesn't work out and they do want to use Josh Hater more flexibly, Freddie Peralta seems like the kind of guy who could profile is a very good late-inning relief. Yeah. we'll see what happens with the brewers. I mean, Tapap AMC,
Starting point is 00:35:37 probably not too happy over there when you bring up Corey Canable, but... No, see, that's the AMC part of it. That's the and more closers. And more closers. He builds in the, what if Josh Hader
Starting point is 00:35:48 loses the closers role thing, because he's still a super valuable player. By the way, this is a relevant thing that's to bring up. Tapap AMC, two aces plus Hater and Paxton and more closers.
Starting point is 00:36:00 Tapap AMC is bad for steals. and the best format for this strategy is an auction. Obviously, it's not a points league strategy, but in a Roto League, you're giving up steals with your first two picks because you're picking two of the top six starting pitchers. I also don't know how it's going to work in a short-end season because the goal is you get Max Scherzer and you get Walker Bueller
Starting point is 00:36:22 and you have two guys who have like 250 or more strikeouts and they're just so much better than almost every other pitcher. Short in season, maybe it doesn't really help as much. I don't know. But this is a bad strategy. strategy for steals, I think, because if you go with two pitchers early, like, if your third, if your fourth round pick is Alberto Mondesie or something, that means one of your first four players is like a really good hitter. And that is really risky. So I just want to throw that out
Starting point is 00:36:49 there that you're probably committing to like trying to finish in the middle of the pack and steals. And you're going with the David Dahl, Kyle Tucker, Yoamonkata strategy, which is fine. But just, just want to throw that out there as we have a, I'm sorry to go back to Steels, but since this is a Steel saves show, you know. There's one of the name we have to mention that I don't think we have, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but we haven't mentioned Jordan Hicks, right? We have not. He was, he's coming back from Tommy John's surgery. The assumption at this point is he will be ready for opening day, correct? I have not seen that. The last report I saw was in mid-May, and they were saying there's a good chance
Starting point is 00:37:32 he's able to make a significant contribution this year. But July would be 13 months removed from Tommy John's surgery. So it would be aggressive. I actually thought about him when putting together the column. And I actually ended up putting Giovanni Gallegos in it just because I feel like the upside isn't getting its due according to ADP pair. Sure. Because I feel like Gallegos,
Starting point is 00:37:59 would have to be bad to allow Jordan Hicks the time to prove he's still healthy and dominant and able to step into the role. Although Gallegos doesn't confirm to be the closer now. That's true. Yep. But Jordan Hicks was not that good as a rookie. But he is incredibly hard to square up
Starting point is 00:38:18 because he throws so hard. And in 2019, you know, we only saw him for 28.2 innings, but strike out rate was up, swinging strike rate was up, walk rate was down. He was starting to look. He was a thrower as a rookie. He started to look more like a pitcher before the injury. So, you know, there's certainly elite closer potential there. The last two names that I'll mention are from the White Sox from the same team. Aaron Bummer and Steve Seishick, I just do not trust Alex Colomay. I trust him about as far as I could throw him. Why, though? If you see me, I'm not throwing Alex Columet very far.
Starting point is 00:38:55 I don't get that, though. Why does nobody like really trust Alex Colomé? of that. I feel like he's been a pretty good reliever. He's not good. Yeah, he just he walks a lot. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. Yeah, he does continue to get the job done against all odds. It reminds me of
Starting point is 00:39:12 a guy named Reniel Pinto for the Marlins who was like their shut down reliever for a couple of years. But he wasn't actually good. He just kept getting good results and eventually it imploded and he, and obviously there are other people I could
Starting point is 00:39:28 have said instead of Reniel Pinto that you might have heard of, but that's where my mind went. Speaking of the Marlins, though, one other name I will mention was a guy who was closing games at the end of the season for them last year, Jose I Eurania, who will likely be in the rotation to start the season, but I think he's got a very, very short leash as a starter. They've got guys they could call up. If he does struggle out of the gates, I think he can be a very effective late-inning reliever. There was also some talk about Brad Boxberger looking strong in spring training for the Marlins and him having some closer experience. But it just seemed like Don Manningly was leaning so much to Kinsler
Starting point is 00:40:05 that it would take a lot to change his mind. But that's kind of a related point. If we're operating under the assumption the season will be short, and I don't know about you guys, but I'm not hopeful it's going to be any longer than 50 games or so at this point. How quickly would a guy have to lose his job for his replacement to be able to actually make a fantasy image? impact. It's going to be such a, it's going to be timeline wise. You're really going to be
Starting point is 00:40:36 threading the needle there. So we're still going to chase it though. I know. I know. It's just, it's not as viable of a strategy as it feels like it would normally be. It makes it potentially less viable to target the backup, the setup men in your drafts with the hopes that they'll get the job because that's true. You know, it usually, you know, maybe we'll see a close or lose their job after a week, but usually we're talking a couple of weeks at the minimum before we really start to see a lot of turnover.
Starting point is 00:41:07 I will say, I think that the leashes are going to be shorter because in a shortened season, I mean, you can't really afford to have someone consistently blowing saves and losing games at the back end of the bullpen. So I'll just throw that point in there.
Starting point is 00:41:18 We're going to take a... Oh, wait, before you go to break. What do you got? I've got a trivia question. I'll let people think about it. During the break, I found a team that has gone as long as the Oakland A's.
Starting point is 00:41:28 without having the same player lead the team and saves two years in a row. There are probably more, but there was one team that came to mind, so I went back and looked same exact, like 2012-13, I believe back-to-back years where the same player led the team in saves. The A's with Grant Balfour, and who's the other team? We'll tell you out of the break. All right, we're back here on fantasy baseball today. The professional broadcaster that he is, Adam Azer, left us with a tease before the break.
Starting point is 00:41:57 Adam, what do you got? Well, since I speculate there are multiple teams, I'm going to narrow it down and tell you it's another American League West team. I think Scott got it then. Yeah, I was going to say the Mariners. It could be. I'm going to check the Mariners now. It's the Rangers.
Starting point is 00:42:17 Donate them. Yeah. And the Rangers every year, every year the guy loses the job. You know, it's just like they're very, they're tough. I said that during the break. I'm excited. An important lesson is, you know, you have, the Rangers are a good example. They've had a couple of guys who, you know, Jose LeClerc had that one season where he was finally
Starting point is 00:42:39 able to throw strikes and looked like an elite closer and then, you know, turned back into a pumpkin. Sam Dyson had that one year where he was really good. These guys who have the one pop year and the athletic seemed to have a different guy every single year who looks like an elite closer. Oh, but Scott, good call. Mariners, you've got to go all the way back to 2018 when they had
Starting point is 00:43:02 Edwin Diaz. I forgot about the Edwin Diaz era. 17 and 18, he led the team and saved. Well, yeah, my first thought was the Phillies and I forgot about the Jonathan Papalban era, which goes back to 2015. Speaking of the Rangers, don't forget about
Starting point is 00:43:17 DeMarcus Evans, a deep, deep sleeper. Let's answer some questions. A mini bell bag here. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Let's try and do this a little bit of a rapid fire style because, as usual, I didn't leave myself enough time here. This one comes from Garrett. If there is a season in 2020, what are your opinions on keepers? For example, if a person is allowed to keep a player for X amount of years, should the
Starting point is 00:43:41 shortened season count towards a year as a keeper? Or should this year not count since it won't be a full season of baseball? It counts. Let's be around. It counts. I thought this is a great question. It counts for MLB. It counts for your fantasy team. It's a trash question. Are you awarding? a partial championship? No. Stample. All right. Next one's from Greg.
Starting point is 00:44:04 I am in a 12-team A-O-only 5-by-5 with OBP. Roto auction, contract league. Wow, that's a mouthful. $260 auction budget. The auction has not happened yet. The roster construction in this league.
Starting point is 00:44:18 One catcher, one first baseman, one second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, three outfielders, two utilities, and then you have two starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, and just four additional pitchers.
Starting point is 00:44:29 It's a Yahoo roster. Here's the situation. I can recognize it anywhere. Going into the auction, he needs seven players with a total of $77 left. His positions of need, he needs two relief pitchers,
Starting point is 00:44:41 he needs two pitchers, he needs a third baseman, or first baseman, I guess, corner infieler, and a utility. His question is, should he trade a $26 Blake Snell
Starting point is 00:44:51 for a $6 Liam Hendrix, the prices increase $5 each season, that would give him $97 for the seven spots in the auction that he needs. So it frees up some money, and for reference, his other pitchers are Tyler Glassnow, Jesus Lazzardo, Lance McCullors, Michael Kopeck, and Nate Pearson. In an AOL only, those pitchers are not bad. There's a ton of upside there.
Starting point is 00:45:15 That could easily be the best pitching staff in the league. He could also need four new pitchers by the fourth week of the season. It's a lot of guys with a lot of potential and a lot of indebted. injury risk. The amount of... The amount of inflation that's going to happen here in an AL-only league, you know, so the player pool spread then 12 team AL-only league. I mean, it's the prices are going to be so inflated in the auction.
Starting point is 00:45:44 I'm not sure that $20 is going to buy you much. And then you think about next year, who are you more likely to keep a $31 Blake Snell and $11,000, Liam Hendricks, while seeing the way athletics closers have gone in considering Hendricks' career trajectory. I think much more likely the $31 Snell. So I would definitely not do this. All right, Scott's keeping Snell. Anything else?
Starting point is 00:46:06 You agree, Chris? You're keeping Snell? Adam? Yeah, I keep snow. Keep Snell. All right. This one comes from Dan in Richmond. Dear Bethlehem Sholes, Brown recluse Esquire,
Starting point is 00:46:20 Big Baby Belafonte, and Dr. Lawyer Indian Chief. Chris, this is all you. Of course. this is the founding crew of the the free darko collective the basketball blog from the early aughts who uh you know coined the term what was it i can't think of it now you're the expert here i know i i i just completely lost the term my brain doesn't work quite like it's supposed to the free darko something fandom i said it the other day now i can't remember this is really
Starting point is 00:46:53 liberated fandom liberated fandom that's that's that's Seems like a more basketball content. Seriously, if you're a basketball fan, go find the two Free Darko books. Incredible illustrations, really great writing. The macro phenomenal style guide, especially has some of my favorite sports art. I've got one of their posters. Highly recommend Free Darko. If the season is 50 games and you are in a keeper or Dynasty League is ignoring
Starting point is 00:47:20 the small sample size farce of an extremely truncated season and planning for future season, and planning for future seasons something you would consider. And is it fair play? Yeah, it's fair play. Oh, it's like selling off your players, punting, I think as long as you pay attention throughout the course of the season,
Starting point is 00:47:39 you're not just completely ignoring it and keeping up with the integrity of the league, why not? Right. Should I not play out the season? If you could trade for young guys who you think have long-term potential, you could still compete this year,
Starting point is 00:47:54 because that small sample size is going to mean that, you know, anyone who has upside could put together a huge 50-game season. Yeah, I have no problem looking towards the future. Anything from you, Scott? No, I mean, I... Not really. Let's move on. All righty.
Starting point is 00:48:15 This next one's from Jason in Brooklyn. I appreciate you, Jason, but I had to spark note this bad boy because this was about an essay on Aristides Sakino. Dear Eric, Paul, Billy, and Glenn. Glenn with two ends, if that helps. Is that Glenn Allen Hill or something? I have no idea. I tried to Google this.
Starting point is 00:48:35 I found nothing. We'll come back to it. I'm a huge fan of the pod. Love you guys. But as a die-hard Reds fan, I feel obligated to warn you against pushing Aristides Aquino on people, even as a late-round power source
Starting point is 00:48:48 or a sleeper. Chris said on the Tuesday pod that Aquino might have an everyday role with the universal DH, and I've heard this speculation before. I can tell you, that there is an absolute 0% chance that Aquino plays every day, even with the DH, unless the Reds have significant injuries.
Starting point is 00:49:07 Aquino had a historic August in terms of hitting home runs when he came up last year, but in September, he got figured out like Pedro Serrano, shout out to Major League. Furthermore, vying for the four slots, three outfielders plus a DH, the Reds have Nick Castellanos, they have Nick Senzel, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, and Philip Irvin to go along with Aristides Akeen. So I mentioned that Aquino just earlier in the show, he might not be an everyday player even with the DH, because Castillo Senzel Akiama Winker,
Starting point is 00:49:38 probably all ahead of him in the packing order, though I imagine there would be some amount of platooning going on there. I don't know why Irvin would get preferential treatment over Akino. I also don't think it makes sense to just write Aquino off because he finished poorly. I mean, there's an amount of adjusting and adjusting back that happens anyway. time any player breaks into the big leagues.
Starting point is 00:50:00 I don't think Aquino's power potential was fake. He hit 47 home runs between the majors and minors last year. I don't think they're just going to cast them out into the wild. So is there a question here? Was he just explaining to us his take of the Reds outfield situation? By the way, I'm assuming that Eric Paul, Billy and Glenn are Reds outfielders, Eric Davis, Paul, O'Neill, Billy, Hamilton, and I'm not sure who Glenn is. Well, it's not Glenn Allen Hill.
Starting point is 00:50:29 I knew there was something strange about Glenn Allen Hill's name, and that is Glenn Allen is one word. There is no question attached here. It was basically his commentary on Aristides-Sakino. Anybody else have anything here? No, they're deepened. You've got a couple of guys who are going to sit against lefties in Akiama and Winker, right?
Starting point is 00:50:50 I presume Winker, Will. I'm not sure about Akiama might have if it was just an eight-man lineup, but I think there's a pretty good chance he becomes an everyday player. But I think other than Castellanos, you shouldn't count on any of those guys for every day at bats, and it'll be somewhat tied to performance.
Starting point is 00:51:07 This next one's from Ross. Glenn Braggs? Glenn. Oh, he's so full of himself. He was a... Yeah, that Glenn Braggs. An early, late 80s, early 90s outfielder for the Reds who was on a World Series team.
Starting point is 00:51:22 Does he have two ends in his name? Yeah. All right. He might be the guy. That's what we'll go with. Glenn Braggs from Ross. I'm in a keeper league that is currently allowing transactions and trading. If there is no baseball season this year, are there any players that I should pick up now
Starting point is 00:51:38 that would make an impact for next season? Waiver claims are $1. To keep a batter, it's you add $5, and you add $3 for starting pitchers. So if you add Wander Franco, it's $6 next year, it is a 12-te-to-head points league. I will just add, even if there is no baseball, this year. I think there's going to be baseball. I'm not sure that that will speed up the ETA for any prospects,
Starting point is 00:52:02 if that's what Ross is thinking. No, but I think he's talking about guys who would be major league ready by 2021. Yeah, anyway, like, I think the expectation is Wander Franco is going to be major league ready by 2021 if he's not already. The thing is, how many guys with no major league experience would you think are worth $6 next year in a mixed league? Yeah. I, like, Maybe Wander Franco might end up going for that if he makes the opening day roster in 2021. I think it's easier for starters when you look at guys like Nate Pearson, guys like Michael Copac. Mackenzie Gore, McKenzie Gore,
Starting point is 00:52:43 Sixto Sanchez, maybe AJ Puck if he qualifies, if he's not on a roster already. You could see Spencer Howard. You could see those guys being $4 players in 2021 on draft day. what about and maybe since it's a keeper league they're already taken but Tommy John recoveries I don't know that this was the gist of his question but Louis Severino no Cinderguard Chrisale I'd put Jameson Tion in there considering it's a head-to-head points league I mean pitchers a pitcher of any stature is going to be valuable in that format so don't forget about those guys if they're available and you can get them for $4 for
Starting point is 00:53:23 2021 that actually does make a lot of sense This next one's from Tyler. Hey guys. My yearly league with my buddies is normally a 10-te-to-head categories league. Due to the short-end season, we decided to give Roto a try. So it's 5 by 5 with OBP instead of batting average. In a shortened season, how do you guys feel about not targeting a top 15 pitcher, but targeting pitchers such as Charlie Morton, Morton, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Glassnow, Jesus Lazzardo, Zach Gallen, Kenta, Mayada, James Paxton, Lance McCawley, If I ended up using my top four to five picks on hitters, would I be okay with, let's say, Patrick Corbyn as my SP1,
Starting point is 00:54:04 or am I playing with fire waiting so long before drafting a pitcher? Remember, it's a 10-team league. Patrick Corbyn never goes in the fifth round in any of the drafts I do, at least. In a 10-teamer, he might last to the early 5th, I guess. This is the 7th round. 63rd overall on a 10-teamer. Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbyn, I think we'd feel great about them, right, Chris? They're, yeah, I'm, I love them more than, and Scott has said he's more than happy with those guys as number one starting pitcher, if I'm remembering correctly, right?
Starting point is 00:54:34 Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I'm talking about getting both of them, you know. Yeah, no, if you could get those two guys, if you could get those two guys in the round in the fourth and fifth round, that's great. I mean, you know, they're usually going in the, the, maybe the late second for Corbyn and some of our 12 teams and then, you know, Morton, probably more like the fourth round in 12 teams. But yeah, I'd be great with both of those two guys as my top. starting pitchers. Yeah, but then after that, like, Morton and Glass now,
Starting point is 00:55:00 Morton Corbyn Glass now, okay, if you have two of those three, that's great. If you don't, and you have one of them, then you have, like, Lizarro,
Starting point is 00:55:08 Gallen, Maeda, McCullors, Paxton, I like Paxton. But you better, like, put it this way, the list he gave,
Starting point is 00:55:16 you really should try to get two of those top three Morton Corbin Glass now. Yeah, but, man, Morton, Lazzardo, Mayeta,
Starting point is 00:55:23 Paxton, I'd be okay with that as my rotation. I love targeting class now in the shortened season. We talked about this yesterday. I mean, he can be a top five pitcher in a 50 game season. Two of those top three, more than Corbyn Glass now. But if you only have one and then that, I don't know, that's a little risky. No, I agree with that.
Starting point is 00:55:44 You don't want Lozardo as your SP2. That's what it comes down to. Yeah. It could, like, it's more likely to work out in a shortened season, though, than it would in a longer season. You're kind of leaning into the volatility that's going to happen when these guys are making only 9, 10, 11 starts, which bad pitchers could be really good for that stretch. Good pitchers could be really bad for that stretch,
Starting point is 00:56:05 and they don't have enough time to correct it, obviously. But you still have to think in terms of a pitcher's going to perform at the level. You think he's going, you're still, it's more of a probability measure. I guess, targeting a high-end pitcher than a real assurance thing, if you get what I'm saying. Generally speaking, I don't know the answer, but I don't think the question is, are you changing your pitching strategy based on a 50 to 60 to game season or even 80 games? I am. I don't think I am. I think I'm just going to draft like I was planning on drafting. All right, so you are, Frank? Yes. Okay, what are you doing differently?
Starting point is 00:56:51 So I've mentioned this before. I'm looking to fade the aces. I just think that there are so many weird things that are going to happen. It comes down to pitchers who are going to have the best matchups, guys who are going to just get on a roll early on in the season. I looked this up. Last year around the 50 game mark, the only elite starting pitcher or a high-end starting pitcher
Starting point is 00:57:10 who ranked in the top 20 in ERA was Justin Verlander. Of all the elite starting pitchers. Here's where I land on this because I don't doubt that's true. especially since it seemed like there were a lot of high-end pitchers who got off the bad starts last year. You still, the winner of your league is still going to have good pitching. He may get lucky with the pitchers he winds up with. He may be the guy who had Zach Davies for the first 50 games last year
Starting point is 00:57:41 and he wins because of that. But you're banking on getting lucky with your pitchers if you're if you're forfeiting the high-end guys to something. else. And I just don't, it may work out, but do you really deserve the win if it does work out? And like, are you really improving your odds of winning by doing that? I don't think, I don't think either of those is. And I would also say, like, maybe after those first 50 games, you know, that, those pitchers, but there's a lot of 50 games stretches in a season. And you could pick anyone and, you know, kind of come to a conclusion. There's no reason that that first 50 game stretch is more likely
Starting point is 00:58:19 to reoccur in 2020 than any other one. I think the point is that every player is less assured of hitting their expectation. And so in that case, I do agree with Frank that because pitchers in general are less assured of hitting their projections than hitters, I think you can make the case for downgrading the Aces, although I will say historically,
Starting point is 00:58:47 the aces have been by far the best values most consistently at starting pitchers. It's actually kind of stark how much like the top 12 return value, the top 13 through 20ish return value. And then after that, you know, it's something like most pitchers, like more than half of pitchers, don't return their draft value between like 20 and 60. It's actually kind of stark. Chris, you can't play both sides of the fence. So what are you doing? Are you targeting high-end pitching? Or are you waiting on pitching this year? I'm always waiting on pitching more than most people, especially on this podcast.
Starting point is 00:59:29 And I did a draft last week where I didn't take a pitcher in my first 14 picks. So, you know, that strategy didn't work out as well as I had hoped that time because I just didn't exercise it correctly. But I think waiting on starting pitching is always a viable strategy. I think more so now. Pun pitching in 2020. Who cares? It's going to be a wild season anyway. Give yourself, I mean, have confidence in your breakout picks
Starting point is 00:59:57 and just draft a bunch of Minnesota Twins. That's what I'll say. You don't have time to pivot from the breakout picks if they don't hit right away, you know? You don't have time to pivot if your high-end starting pitchers don't perform well early on in the season like last year. At least you gave yourself your best chance from the get-go. Like, Frank, here's what you need to do.
Starting point is 01:00:16 I got an assignment for you. All right. So you got to get the last like, I don't know, five years and look at the first 50 games and see if it's a trend. I'm serious because what happened last year? That just wouldn't tell us. If it happens year after year where the hitting is much more predictable, you got to look at hitters and pitchers. Well, if you think the high end hitters are more predictable in the first 50 games and the high end pitchers and the stats bear it out year after year after year, I think that's much more worth looking into than just last year,
Starting point is 01:00:50 the top, after 50 games, pitching was wacky. I need more than that. I'll just say this. You don't have to look it up. In a 50 game sample size, hitters are going to be more predictable than pitchers. Then we should pivot that way in drafts. Because you're talking about a 50 game sample size
Starting point is 01:01:05 versus an 11 to 12 game sample size. Like just if nothing else, the math is going to work out the hitters are going to be more predictable because there's more time for them. And they have more control over their production. But if you're reducing, because like I said, the team that wins is going to have good pitching. If you're reducing your pitching staff to just a dice throw,
Starting point is 01:01:27 you're basically reducing the entire season to just a dice throw. And then what is the point of even playing? It's saying that every pitching staff is going to be a dice roll, especially relative to hitters. It's not saying all pitchers will be bad or unpredictable or random. they will be more random and more unpredictable than hitters. But it was always true they were going to be more unpredictable than hitters. That is even more true now.
Starting point is 01:01:51 And so making more of a point to invest in hitters means you're more likely to have a positive return on investment. Frank, you show me how to look it up. I'll do it for you. I'll do it. No, challenge accepted at him. I think that they could get some interesting data here. And Scott said, what is the point of playing?
Starting point is 01:02:09 I feel like that should be the official slogan of the 20, 2020 MLBC. 2020. What is the point? We'll try and figure that out. We'll talk about it on Monday. I have a homework assignment from Adam. I will try my best to find the data.
Starting point is 01:02:24 But let's wrap it up here, boys. For the for Scott, Adam and Chris, it was a great week here. By the time we come back Monday, the season will already be announced. So, duh, based on my bold prediction. We might have an emergency pod before that. You never know. Yeah, we really might. All right, guys.
Starting point is 01:02:40 I don't know how I'm going to wrap this show up. Good job. But this is an, what'd you call it, an azer outro? Yeah, this is another one. It's contagious. What's the point? See you guys next week. Bye-bye.

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