Fantasy Baseball Today - Talkin' 2021 Top Prospects with The Welsh! (11/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 12, 2020

It's time to finally dive into some prospects for the 2021 season and who better to join us than Chris Welsh aka The Welsh (2:00)! ... A question that is on many minds is how to evaluate prospects without any minor league data from 2020 (7:24). Should 2021 lists really change much from last year? ... Let's start at the very top with Wander Franco who is the consensus #1 prospect in the industry (16:10). What is his upside and should we expect him in 2021? ... Speaking of the Rays, how does The Welsh feel about the great Randy Arozarena (20:15)? Arozarena or Teoscar Hernandez? ... What do we do with Jo Adell (28:49)? ... When can we expect Mackenzie Gore (30:23)? ... Jarred Kelenic vs. Julio Rodriguez (32:54). ... Can Matt Manning be the best of the Tigers pitching prospects (35:56)? ... Will the year off affect Andrew Vaughn's ETA (38:04)? ... How about Spencer Torkelson (40:30)... We hit a prospect edition of GUESS WHO (43:13). ... Who are some of Welsh's sleepers (51:43)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Santianna, because of the cocktail, a jag like Michael Wanka, Polanco, and Fronko. Everybody talks about Wander Franco, but just how good is this kid going to be? Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on a Thursday, November 12th.

I want to wish a happy Veterans Day to all of our servicemen and women out there. Frank Stamphill joined, as always, by Scott White. We just wrapped up our first mock draft of the offseason. We will talk about that on a podcast next week, but Scott, honestly, it was weird. It was very weird. It was weird. Yeah, it was weird.

I mean, we've been talking about how it's going to be so difficult to evaluate every player because there's so little data to go on. And the temptation is to weigh it like a full season when really you shun it. And if you did, then a lot of the standbys like, you know, J.D. Martinez, et cetera, would just get buried. And, you know, they obviously didn't go as high as they were coming into 2020. They fell quite a bit. But, you know, if we were treating 2020 like a full-length season, they would drop even more. And something I never thought I would write in a chat in a mock draft was, wow, this is the riskiest mock draft team that I have ever drafted.

So it's just going to be fun to talk about that coming up next week. If you couldn't tell by our Open, we are talking about prospects on the show today. while Scott knows his fair share. Shout out to Alec Bohm. He's looking pretty good so far. We wanted to bring somebody on who really knows his prospects is well-versed in fantasy baseball and is fun. Welcome back to the show, Chris Welsh, a.k.a. The Welsh. What's going on, buddy?

My buddy is Frankie Stamps, Scotty White. These are my people. I'm glad to be back. Thank you guys for having me, especially to talk about prospects. And that Wander, Wander Franco. That's what we were talking about before. We're going to talk about Wander and Bomb. No, Bome. I miss talking all the prospects.

prospects with you too, Scotty. So you definitely hold your own. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Now, I miss it. I miss it too. It's good to have the Welsh back. Thank you. And using my, using my formal name too, the, I appreciate that. Yeah. It's like the Ohio State University. It's the Welsh. Yeah. The Edge. Exactly. Did you change that on the birth certificate officially or what? Oh, no, I didn't have to change it. Legal name. Legal. The Welsh. That would be my, you know, full Christian name there. The Welsh. So I appreciate you guys. I mean, at this point, I'm more apt to respond to you for the Welsh than I am, my actual name. When someone calls me Chris, it's like your mother using, you know, your full name.

I'm like, whoa, who do you think you are talking to me like that with a Chris? That's like me getting in trouble as a kid. My mom's like, Frank Anthony, she would always hit the middle name, right? Frank Anthony, hand me that shoe. And, you know, as a kid, I'm like, all right, hand her the shoe. And she's like, just throw it at me. So I would hand her to the, you know, whatever. And she would just throw it at me.

And I'm just like, all right, well, Frank. Anthony, if you ever heard that, it's bad. If you hear Chris Welsh, you know that he's in trouble. If you've listened to this podcast over the past 365 days longer than that, you know who the Welsh is. He used to host the podcast here towards the end of last season and the off season as well. So we welcome him back to the show. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Is It the Welsh.

True story. Someone has asked me in the past, why is his Twitter handle? I sit the Welsh. That is a true story. Someone asked me that. all that's 100% true it's 100% true i mean i thought it was clever because i'm like hey i'm posing the question because people are like is it the welsh and it's like yeah that's the handle but i get yes i sit the welsh and always the classic i uh is it the welch like the purple

drink so uh it is it is it the welsh is it the welsh that's the first time i've heard the explanation of the handle actually yeah it's not i mean it's really well yeah i i i i i yeah i i i yeah i i Yeah, okay. I'm glad I heard it. Yeah, well, it's working. And of course, make sure you check out the Welsh's work over at In This League, hosts their podcast there and Prospect One, where he goes crazy deep on baseball prospects. Is there anything else you want to promote before we get started?

I hope not. I mean, at this point, it's a little extended there. But, I mean, I think, you know, the thing that people would care about the most here would be like the In This League Fantasy Baseball podcast, and probably more than anything to this conversation would be Prospect One, because that's where it's my full coverage. talk, you know, it's funny and I try not to do it. I'm a

hundred percent like a name-droppy guy and I hate doing it, but in my soul it has to come out and it's like half the guys we're going to talk about in this episode today. I've talked to. I've been around. I've interviewed on my show. So it's just, it's, I'm apt to do it. But if you check out the show, it's fantasy

baseball driven for prospects. I live in Arizona so I get to come out and be around these guys. You know, when humans can be around humans, I do that. And I've been doing it for many years and I get some of these dudes on my podcast and Alec Bone being one of them and a whole bunch of others. So, uh, yeah, check it out.

Prospect One, any podcast place. Yeah, and it's not just like a humble brag or a weird flex or anything. Because I, I've talked to the Welsh in the past, uh, previous stops, uh, some, some radio stuff. And he's just like, yeah, I'm out here, uh, in the back, you know, he's like, just drops this prospect and he's like, I just saw this prospect, you know, hitting off a tea and this guy throwing it. And I'm like, yeah.

Well, Stamps, if you remember the last thing you did, he actually, uh, Frank had me do a call in. I was on the Padres backfield. I remember this 100%. That's what it was. It might have been this past year, or maybe it was a year before. I'm on the Padres backfield. I'm watching McKenzie Gore and Andrew Morione work line drills with Garrett Richards.

And maybe it was Garrett Richards. And I'm just walking around the field. Let's see Francisco Mejia over here, Chris Paddock over here. And I'm just walking on the backfields of the Padres, just doing my phone interview, just walking through people. I'm like, I'm out with Frankie Stamps. Get out of here. So yeah.

I have 100% done many interviews on the backfields, and I always say the good stuff for you. Yeah, and Welsh is like, I'm wasting my time talking to Frank here when I could be interviewing all these awesome prospects. All right, so we're going to ask the Welsh about some of these big names. Of course, we're going to talk about McKenzie Gore

a little bit later on in the show and ask who some of your favorite sleepers are towards the end. I've got a game of guess who, prospect edition. I don't know if this player is still a prospect, but you know what? He's still a prospect in my eyes,

so I'm going to go with it. horrible at these games. Scott, are you, I feel like you and I have done this before. I am horrific when it comes to these guessing games. You would think it would be my wheelhouse. They'd be like, a podcast host, first name, Scott, last name, Bogman that you've hosted with. And I'm like, I don't know who it is. Like, I cannot put stuff together. Are you like that at all, Scotty? No. No. Well, I think I'm good for you then. You're going to win. Somebody has to be good at these games, I guess, or else we would stop doing them. It's not me. It would not be good to listen to. I'm like a three to one underdog on this today for sure.

Honestly, I think the worst you guys are, the better it makes for content. So we'll find out a little bit later on. All right, Welsh, some general prospect questions that we have. What's going to happen? Oh, well, guys, thanks so much because I have the answer. I've got all the answers. What's going to happen to what? Will there be minor leagues?

Will minor leaguers ever play in games? that's a loaded question. It is a loaded question. Yeah, I just, I have no idea. But specifically when it comes to evaluating prospects for 2021, and I think obviously, I'm sure you're already dealing with this. We're all going to deal with this from a fantasy perspective for dynasty, for redraft, trying to figure out how aggressive are these teams going to be with their prospects

who just lost out on basically an entire year of development. So it is an all-encompassing question, but basically, what are you going to do with evaluation for? 2021, given the fact that we just missed out on a whole season of development. Yeah, this has been like, I mean, I really should go back and like do a bunch of my podcasts and just piece all the interviews together because this is something I kind of drug out for months and months, especially when, you know, we were in deep quarantine because this was kind of the biggest question.

The season's taken away. I, you know, a lot of what I do has been built around development. I'm here for half of Major League Baseball's developmental leagues. And this is what, you know, I've kind of grown accustomed to. I would say the biggest confirmation I probably got because I've talked with like Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, but Eric Long and Hagen with FanGraps is one of the best in the industry and he's become a friend out here. And I asked him this same question. And I had posed in my mind that at the end of the day, I don't know if there's that much developmental hit that's taken away from these guys as we all think. Because you think of minor league being taken away and we all just go, okay, well, everybody's back a year. let's trade off the super young prospects because we've lost a year.

There's a lot of hands-off stuff that's done and the lower levels. So if you take like, I'll try to make this quick, but if you take like the international guys that come out, there's a lot of exciting, you know, Wanda Franco you talked about was an international guy just a couple years ago. Those guys didn't really lose a whole lot. They've been out here. They trained and they're just going to move forward so I don't take them.

The AAA guys, it's really not. If anything, they might have got a boost because they went to these alt sites. They worked against high-end pitching. they were working up against essentially major leaguers at that point. So whether you were, let's say, a double A player, you got a lot of work. Jared Kelnick is a perfect example of that. The guys I'm most worried about were the transitional players from A ball to advanced A, which is kind of the biggest boost.

And that doesn't really affect anybody for 2021 as far as your redrafts go. I think it could stall them out. Examples are if you're a dynasty player, Christian Robinson with Arizona Diamondbacks, is very, very exciting. That's a guy. And he also changed his body. You know, there's players that are changing their bodies. This is a guy that he dropped 20 pounds before the season started.

And then he came back three months later to the alt site and had gained 20 more pounds of muscle. This is a guy who's completely transformed his body three times in the span of a year. Those are the guys that I'm most worried about from a developmental standpoint. So from a dynasty owner, if you did, if immediacy is the most important thing to you, I'd be moving off of some of those players because I think they're going to be halted back. And then, you know, the last part is I do think there are, there's certain cases across the board. There's actually a prospect that has not reached a very high level

at all that I think can reach the majors next year. But then there are some guys that like Drew Waters specifically, Drew Waters with the Atlanta Braves. I think this guy is in, he lost a year of development. He was at all sites. He's blocked and he doesn't have numbers to back up pushing anybody else off.

I think those type of like high advanced A players are the ones that maybe lose a year or don't get you for this upcoming season when you get super excited about some of those players. So it's kind of an answer. I think it's low amount of development that's been taken away. Some guys, and I'll finally end this, some guys probably are going to have gotten two years of advancement by being at the alt sites than in minor leagues. Example, another diamond back,

Corbyn Carroll, who's a really talented player that dynasty owners should have. Corbyn Carroll, instead of when he went from the AZL to low A, instead of going and playing against Haye and starting to see the first time where, you know, you're getting some off-speed stuff, this guy went up, it was, you know, hitting against major league Diamondbacks pitchers, John Duplante, AAA prospect pitchers. And he has even been quoted in some interviews saying, listen, I learned more than I could have possibly ever learned or I learned in my first stint professional baseball because I was with all my coaches, all the trainers, all the best prospects. And it's another level of development. So I think it's a little bit overblown than we all really think it is. And I think there's

chances for people to take advantage of that in Dynasty Leagues. First of all, I like that you use the two examples you used were diamondbacks. Of course. Yeah. What do you live in? I got, I've got like quotes and I've got some personal experience and those, those were apt for me to use, but it is very homerish. I was going to say, do you live in Arizona or something else?

What's that? Do you live in Arizona or something? I live in Arizona. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Diamondbacks hat right there. When I'm looking at this, and this is the part of the off season where I really do my deep dive

on prospects normally, the, the problem I'm thinking. facing is what am I, what am I deep diving? Because that's what when we talk about evaluating prospects, you know, normally we have a bunch of data to work with. And the data is stalled. Like, we didn't get any new data in 2020, except for the guys who the prospects still considered prospects who came up and played in the majors. So like, I know you do a top 500, Chris, which I mean, just blows my mind because, you. you know, the amount of time I spend just on a top 100. And you do a top 500.

It's, I don't even know how you tell the difference between number 320 and 460, but I know you do a top 500. So, what, is it mostly the same from last year? I mean, what new information do you have? So it's a great question. And you're not wrong necessarily about that. I'd also say, like, people get very, and you guys know this, people get very worked up with numbers, you know,

so it's like, it's one thing when it's like, hey, listen, You have this guy at 30 and everybody else has him at 10. But people will look and be like, hey, you've got this guy at 350 and he's, you know, 250 and somewhere else. When you start to get past like the top 200 in prospects, the length of value is, the margins are much smaller. You know, just because a guy is 250 and another guy is 350, it doesn't actually mean that they're that much further apart. There might be just certain intangible. So, you know, what do you pull from this year? You're right, Scott.

No, you're right. There are a lot of the things that are the same. And I have cautioned a lot of people on my own show that I think this is a very important year. And this is a testament to you too, especially because I know, you know, people lock into you a lot for, you know, the coming years realm of prospects that I have been champion that you really have to find the people that you trust. And it might not be me. It might be somebody else. It might only be Scott. It might not be either one of us.

But you have to find those people because you're going to see people changing lists. And it's like, how? How did you do that? Oh, you got your sources? You got all those sources? I think it's very difficult to make massive changes. And I am a little bit more conservative. I think if people have seen my ranks before,

I am usually the first on international because I do a lot more studying on the international side and I see them here in Arizona. So I'll be more aggressive on international, which gets people, eh, but also I don't like to make drastic, drastic moves when someone does something right off the cuff because this is a developmental process.

And, you know, how can I go and pull all these other players and add them to the list and can they change. There are definitely changes. There are guys that played this year that made some big movement. There is information you get out at alt sites. There's also just some directives as far as like players that I've seen. And if I knew this guy was over at an alt camp working with major leaguers, I might give them an extra little boost.

And there's a lot of information on instructional league. So it is, um, mine is like a, it's a living list. I never stop it. It's always available. I have a Patreon for it. You can see it. every single month as I go through the process and update on it. But I mean, if I was sitting there and like every six months updating a 500,

it would be, it would be wild. But that is a big question, man. It's like, how do you value these players in a year that was lost? And I think it can still be done. But you might have to be,

you might have to be more critical than you've ever been than you've ever been before. You can buy values on super young players. And I think the guys that are closer hold the most value in dynasty than they've ever done before. So there is an advantage with however you view your own team. All right, so let's talk about some specific players. And of course, I led the show with Wanda Franco. And let me just ask

you about him first and foremost. He is by far and away the top prospect. I don't think it changes on anyone's list. I think it's just Franco across the board. And look, the guy's ridiculous. He's going to turn just 20 years old in March. And in 2019, between Singale and High A ball. He had 327 with nine homers

and 18 steals. The plate discipline is absolutely ridiculous. In his minor league career, he has 83 walks to 54 strikeouts. I mean, that is just ridiculous. And I don't want to make too many comms because comps get a little wonky and stuff, but I get Wansoto vibes from Wanderfranco.

So you tell me if I'm crazy Welsh, do you expect him in 2021? If we're in redraft drafts, is he worth taking? When do you expect him? it seemed like he was kind of close. He had like the World Series jersey and there was like some rumors

he might get called up then. All encompassing. What do you think happens next year with Wander Franco? Yeah, I mean, you know, first of off, he's just one of the most polished, if maybe not the most polished prospects in baseball as far as a hitter. I remember a couple years ago,

I remember when it was a MLB pipeline, they had given an 80 comp on the hit tool for Vlad and they had just like never done it. And I actually happened to have Jim Callis on like right as it happened. And we kind of talked thoroughly through that. And I think even at that time, he had said, listen, Juana Franco is a guy that we might be doing this in a couple years.

And I remember when Franco was an international prospect, you know, 16 years old. And the one thing that stood out to me, and this is someone I comped him to when I first saw him. This was way before he was even tied with the race was he looked like Hanley Ramirez to me in the way he swung. And he just, he bulked up, physically bulked up. He's got probably the best eye as far. I mean, it's reminiscent of Vladimir Guerrero, except he's got some other intangible as far as athleticism goes and he can loft the ball and he can run. I mean, that's what kind of differentiates him.

And even as much as a year and a half ago, you know, if you would have pinned people down, people would have still taken Franco over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And just as far as a hit tool, I mean, obviously Vlad is a stolen base option. But, you know, there was a lot of discussions made about would Wander Franco in a normal season in this last Arizona Fall League in 2019? Would he be there in 2020?

And I kind of thought it was a possibility. I think the team was moving him. And then, you know, for him to get the ride through the playoffs. I think it's there. The problem is a couple things, is the rays have already gone out and said they don't want to push him, so they're already starting that narrative.

And they do have guys. You know, Joey Wendell had a pretty good season. If you actually take a look at his numbers, I was just working on my redraft ranks. And I was like, I can't ignore Joey Wendell in what he did last year. And they've got versatility across the board. But I think there's a possibility that he could play some third.

And I think, you know, the raise are, they like to slow play it. but I think there's a manipulation that is going to take place that Wander will be. I think it's a half season and that's what I'd be banking on. And if you play in deeper leagues or you can stash properly, I am going to rank him and I'm going to rank him aggressively in that respect that I'm going to get about a half season out of him. I'm not sure it'll be much different than Jared Kelnick.

And I'll bet you Jared Kelnick will probably go higher in some early redrafts thinking that he could break camp. But I would assume like a half a season and I think he's going to be a stud. So we just did our first. rotomoc for 2021, obviously redraft rotomach. And Jared Kelnick, is that how you say it? The Mariners out. Yeah, Jared.

Yeah, Kelnick. It looks like Kalenik, but it's Kelnick. Yeah, he went around 15 and Wander Franco went around 16. So very close. But Kelnick a little ahead. And yeah, I think if we're talking half season, and I wouldn't expect more than that from Wander Franco myself, yeah, probably not somebody that's going to,

that anybody's going to talk about. in the single-digit rounds. I'm actually interested in what you think of another Ray's prospect, still technically a prospect, even though he's kind of a household name at this point, and that's Randy Arrowserena. I was pretty hesitant to buy into him. His minor league numbers are pretty good,

but he never got much hype as a prospect. His minor league numbers were good enough that you could say, okay, so maybe the evaluators are a little low on this guy, but they were projecting him as more of a fourth outfielder type. Absolutely. And as good as he was in the miners,

it wasn't with a ton of power. I'm kind of past that now. In redraft, I have him outside my top 30 outfielder, so I'm not going crazy over him. But he ended up with 17 home runs between the regular season and playoffs. And once you get up to a number that high,

you know, I can see maybe, 10, 11 home runs, okay, he just got hot. But 17, like, that's usually, you get that, you get to that kind of number and it's kind of validating. I 100% agree with you. I mean, I wish I, I, I keep some stats on my ranks list. And I wish I kept a chart that, because there was a time in about 2018, where I was pretty

high on a Rosarena because he was a Cardinals prospect. And it was just because it was, it was always a good hit tool. There wasn't power. But, you know, if you're evaluating prospects, If a guy presents you with a really good hit tool, and then you could see some muscle being built on the body, you know, power is going to come last. So he's running, he's hitting.

That was kind of exciting. But then he just, you know, he never got the push. He never got the push. He kept kind of falling back and he, bu, up, up, but then this year, you know, he's traded, you know, he's the throw in in a trade. And he's a completely transformed guy. So I'm with you. I always like the hit tool.

I like that he could run. But I never thought he was going to be a big impact player. And, you know, I think, you know, Aris had marked some of it and when he was going through his run, that one of the biggest changes that you saw in Randy Rosarena that I think you can't ignore is the EV changes. You know, it was it was like a three to four boost, which was showing some of that built muscle. You know, famously we joke now about what was it the chicken and rice that he was working through. It was just push-ups, pull-ups, chicken and rice, building body muscle. He's always had the hit tool. So you talk

about, you know, you talk about the muscle coming up. You talk about this beautiful swing. You look at the results, but then you also look at the results, not just like in the season, because I'm with you. Like, you could take a month of anybody and fall in love, but he also did it in the biggest most clutch point that you possibly could do it across the entire playoffs, breaking records. And I think that says something for it. I think this guy, he's got that clutch. There is power, there's speed. He's a five tool guy. I got to be all in. And it's hard for me because I think the most difficult thing I have with prospects are the late bloomers. It is the most difficult. There's a guy that just teeters, teeters, and then right at the end just comes up or needs a year,

those are my most difficult evaluation because I've got this track record built in my brain of who they are. And I don't want to buy into it. This guy has made the changes that you can't ignore. And I'm going to be pretty aggressive on him this year. But it also, also is an amazing time to sell high on him in Dynasty. You cannot ignore what that sell high could look like. And I would consider that.

Yeah. And you should consider it when his early NFBC. ADP, I think there's been five drafts completed in the NFBC, so it is very early, and this data is interesting to say the least. His early ADP is 54.4.

He is a fifth round pick, and his steamer projections, which you can find on fan graphs, are a 258 batting average, 25 home runs, and 21 steals. So, I mean, if he comes anywhere close to that, then he might be worth a mid-round pick, but...

Yeah, he might, but like, he didn't... And he can run. He just didn't run much during. Maybe he was hitting too many home runs to run. But he stole four bases during the regular season. He stole one during the playoffs. So he's five for seven. It looks like, I think, you know, that's not nothing.

That's not nothing. But projecting him for more than 20 steals, I think, is a little aggressive. He went in that mock draft we did tonight. He went 115 as opposed to the ADP of 54. 1.15's about where I have him. You're saying your reaction there leads me to believe that you think it's too low, Chris. Yeah, yeah, that's low. That's low. I mean, between the mocks I have done, we're conducting summit in this league as well to actually create an early ADP that's not based off of NFBC.

I think NFBC is fantastic, but, you know, it kind of loses the consumer a little bit because it's a little bit more high stakes. I think I'd split that. I like him in the 70s. I mean, to be frank, I'm really curious here. I try to put you guys on the spot to look at it. I'd be curious where a guy like Teosca Hernandez went because there's another one of those guys. I'm all about Teoska Hernandez. And if I was getting a discount comparatively from a Rosarena to Hernandez, I would take Hernandez.

Because I actually think I'd love that to be a debate and a look back because I think Hernandez could outperform a Rosarena this season. And if there was a 20 to 30 round or pick difference, I mean, give it to me all day. But it might not be the case because a Roserina has been doing it for a little bit longer. Hernandez went eight picks later. Okay, so I get nothing out of that. Yeah. I don't think it's interesting that you like Hernandez that much because he's another one who I have a hard time,

hard time buying into. He hit the ball very hard for two months, harder than we've ever seen him hit it before. Played discipline was horrible. Like horrible. The strikeout rate especially was just like, man, you better keep hitting it that hard. I don't have like exit velocity over a two month period is not something I put a lot of stock in, I guess.

but I think a Rosarana is going to suffer from some of that as well. You're going to see a complete pitch change in how pitchers are going to approach him, especially over elongated season. You're not going to see as much fastball. You know, there's a little bit more of a story. It happens to all these guys. Again, a prospect we may talk about that I was disappointed. They showed no plate discipline whatsoever.

And pitchers didn't need to adjust to it. Guys like a Rosarena, there's going to be an adjustment period. And he is going to have, he's going to have a downfall at some point next season. It's just how long. And I think he's talented enough to get through it. That's how I also feel about Tasker Hernandez. He's one of those guys. We can always look at the volatility of strikeouts and stuff.

People did it to Fernando Tatis Jr. to weigh him down on how valuable he can't be because of his strikeout numbers. But at the end of the day, talent pulls through. And I think Hernandez is like a five-tool guy in a super, super, super upcoming lineup that he's going to be hitting between guys like Boba Chet, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And whatever else they end up doing. So if I was getting more of a discount, that would be a little bit more exciting. I'd be fun to track that, but if those guys are going next to each other, I don't know. I'll take either one and I'll be happy, but maybe not at 50.

All right, we're going to hit a quick break. I just want to remind everybody that the 2020 Masters is finally here. The First Cut has all your golf needs as Tiger Woods begins his green jacket defense. This week at Augustine National. Tune into the First Cut Golf Podcast, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network all week long for tournament previews, picks and best bets plus round by round recaps as the world's best tee off this Thursday. Actually, when you're listening to it, that would be today. The First Cut crew is on the scene at Augusta National,

ready to bring you every insight into a tradition like any other. Go listen to the First Cut Golf podcast. Wherever you like to listen to podcasts, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll do a little bit of rapid fire with some more prospects here with the Welsh. Poor Joe Adele. What are we going to do with this man in 2021?

He had a dreadful 2020 campaign. Probably was not ready for the major leagues. he hits us 161 with 55 strikeouts in 38 games, but we know better than to judge prospects on a 38 game sample. Just look at his teammate Mike Trout, his first 40 games. Did not fare very well. He had a sub-700 OPS in his rookie season back in 2011. Welsh, what do you think about Joe Adele?

I mean, are there too many warning signs here? Do you think he starts 2021 in the minors again? If there is a minor league season, what do you think of Joe Adele? Yeah, I'm a big Joe Adele. He's, he culminated the end of my Arizona Fall League in 2019 with an interview. We did about 20 minutes. He's such a great guy. He's a phenomenal athlete.

And I'm very worried about what this season was. His plate discipline was the most concerning thing. But I'm going to stick with it. I think he is one of the more talented outfielers and just overall prospects. I've seen it a long time, hard hit. He can run. He doesn't utilize it enough. He was very candid about his power when I spoke to him as well.

Didn't give me cookie cut answers. and he improves. He consistently approves. And I think he will be in the majors next year. And he have never seen a prospect in a long time look as fooled as he had. So I think you have to be very concerned about it, especially with those strikeout numbers. But he has the intangibles to be a very, very valuable prospect.

I don't mean to comp him to it. But it could be a similar path to like Byron Buxton. Speed, power, overall athleticism. I hope it doesn't take as long, but I'm still a buyer of Adele. Where are we with McKinsey Gore? consensus top pitching prospect. I think a lot of people were hoping to see, maybe even expecting to see him,

given what the Padres did last year. And, you know, Luis Petino, who's actually younger, he passed him in the pecking order, it looks like, got the call before McKinsey Gore did. Is the stock holding there? Is there any reason for concern? No, I think the only thing I'm concerned about is that they just didn't give him an opportunity.

They really kept, I mean, they went to everybody else, they possibly could. Morione. They brought up, I think it was Calquant Trill and Luis Petino, obviously, in the bullpen. I'm not 100% sure what that was all about. I've been around, again, this is the name dropy thing. But, like, McKenzie Gore was like day one in Padres camp. I've seen him.

He's intense. He's got an insane basketball. His third professional start, Nick Ahmed was rehabbing in one of the games. And he just, I've never seen a professional look so silly. He just had Nick Ahmed just spinning around like a cartoon on his curveball. But he's just been a little bit inconsistent. And I think they're trying to hone in that consistency. And I kind of think Batigno could have gone either way for them is why they allowed him to go to the bullpen.

I don't think that's an option for McKenzie Gore. So I'm a little concerned why there was nothing there whatsoever. And even in the playoffs, they didn't go to it. So I think there's a little bit of cause of concern, but he's still my number one pitching prospect. We just need a tiny bit more consistency. But he's got four plus pitches. He's insane. Do you think we see him in 2021?

Yeah, absolutely. I absolutely do. And I don't know how early. The Padres can do it. They've done it with Paddock. I think that is actually a real possibility depending what happens in free agency or lack of free agency and trades.

And that's another thing. I don't want to go on a tangent about it. But I think in 2021, there's a possibility, even though we lost in minor league season, we might see more prospects by the amount of teams that don't want to spend money in free agency and want to internally play their guys

because all ownership is worried about all the money they're losing. You saw guys take qualifying offers that seem like a little bit of a shock. I think teams are going to be really, really wonky about how they spend their money. and I think the guys that can help now are the ones that are going to get the opportunity. So you could have guys that, you know, I say Wanda Franco, we might get him up even sooner. The race specifically are not the team to do that, but there's a lot of other teams that may curtail not spending, you know, $8 million on some black outfielder and they may just go to their prospects to save the money.

Yeah, and it could make sense, especially with the Padres, given the late season injuries to Clevenger and Denelson Lamed as well. So we'll see what happens with that in the off season. And Welsh, I'm going to hit you with a two-for here. Seattle Mariners double dosage. And Calenic, you brought up the name a little bit earlier. And look, just had a 2020 season. I think a lot of people are excited about him. Rightfully so.

There's video servicing of him on the internet, hitting line drives off of frisbees and the hit tool looks like it's there. And he's got a power speed combination. And his teammate, a teammate at some point, Julio Rodriguez, who some people actually think has a high, or upside than Kalenik. So do we see either both in 2021? What's your outlook for both these guys?

I am one of those guys that I have Julio Rodriguez above Kalnick and say it again, going to drop it again. These both guys have been around for a long time. If you want to hear how intense Jared is, I did an interview with him and he talks about his goals and he's just very goal oriented and he's just really into it. It was out of the 2019 season. He's like, I wanted to go 2020 in the minor leagues.

We set that goal. I want to make the majors in 2020. This was for 19. He had told me in the 2019 off all league. He's like, I want to make the majors. That is the major goal here. He's really been into working out. So he's been building a lot of muscle.

You saw that in the alt camp site. Kelnik is the guy for 2021. I would not be shocked if he broke camp. I don't think it'll happen. I think teams are going to want to manipulate as much as they possibly can, especially when you have depth, which the mariners actually do have some depth. But I do think he's going to get some run next year. And I think he's going to be pretty strong.

He was one of the best high school bats coming out when he originally did. And he's built into power. He can run. He's intense. He's going to be the face of the organization. But so is Julio Rodriguez. And Julio Rodriguez is one of my absolute favorite people.

And that guy, I mean, he was just an instructs not too long ago after he returned from his wrist injury. He was dropping 11, 11, 112 EVs and instructs. He hits the ball really hard. He's still got some stuff to work on. He's still chasing a little bit. He can get fooled a little bit down below. And he's not going to be much.

of a runner, but he's going to be a massive impact back. We're talking about like 35, 40 homers, 100, 100. I think he can hit 300. I wouldn't be shocked if he struggles a little bit early on because he's still very young and he's getting pressed. I don't think, and this is something me and James Anderson for Motor Wire disagree with. We go about this a lot. I don't think even after this last season, he thought Julio could have been a 2020 guy.

I don't think Julio's going to be a 2021 guy, but I do think Kilnick will be that. And by the way, those two guys are like best friends. I think they were roommates for a little bit. I talked to Kelnick about that. They love each other. They are going to grow up and be superstars in the same organization. They're going to be the new Bash Brothers when they get there as far as prospects and Mariners and everybody.

Willie Rodriguez is going to be one of those guys that he just transcends all teams and people will love him. My bet is on him long term, but that is not a discount to Kelnick. They're both going to be studs. But in 2021, go with Jared Kelnick. And of course, the Mariners, nobody's expecting them to compete next year. so they have even more incentive to keep Rodriguez down. A team that was surprisingly aggressive in promoting its prospects this year, though,

even though the Tigers, they weren't contenders. And yet we saw Casey Mize come up. We saw Terrick Scoobal come up. The one we didn't see come up was Matt Manning. He's the one I'm invested in in Dynasty. I actually traded Joey Bart for him straight up in a league. That's a good trade. Surprisingly straightforward.

were trade for a dynasty league, high end prospect for high end prospect. And spending on a pitching prospect. That's always something that's a little bit dicey investing. Yes, yes, yes. There's no such thing as a pitching prospect, right? Except I am all about pitching right now in fantasy baseball and just want as much of it as I could possibly can. In part because I know I can't count on everybody. But anyway, what do you think of Matt Manning and his chances?

Yeah, he probably has the highest upside of all those guys. They're so deep, too, by the way, just across the board. the tigers are so exciting with what they did in this past draft. But I was never the biggest Casey Myers guy on the planet. And I think you saw some of the worries. You know, the miners, the strikeout numbers didn't get too crazy. And you saw early on no one could hit that splitter and it looks insane. But then when people realize you don't have to swing at that splitter and if he doesn't command the other pitches, he's very hitable.

And you can take advantage of him because then he's going to start backtracking. Then he has to go to the fastball and people can get up to that. Same thing happened with Turk Skubel. because when his secondary stuff wasn't working, and he couldn't get that to command, he was way more hitable, way more down to life. Where Matt Manning,

I think he's a big, giant projectable, high fastball strikeout pitcher. He's got three offerings. I don't think he's weighted like the other two as much, where if this one offering doesn't work, he's kind of backtracking a little bit,

and they're babying him. You can tell how important he is to the organization. They didn't push him up where they did with, Scuble kind of had the same like Luis Petino thing. where he could go either way and he could just compete in short innings, but they don't want to, they don't want to damage. And he did get damage a little bit with this injury, but he should be healthy next year.

Big strikeout option. He is a very, very good bet, and I would take him over Mize and Turk Skubel. Welsh, Andrew Vaughn, was the third overall pick by the White Sox in the 2019 draft. And I think, obviously, they draft him a little bit older, three-year player in college. He'll turn 23 years old in April. I think the hope was that he would join the Major League team sooner,

rather than later. But he's one of these weird situations where he misses out on this season of development. Great plate discipline, has a great eye. He can walk. He doesn't strike out much. He hits a ton of line drives. I think he's a very projectable hitter.

But because he hasn't played above high A, can we expect him in 2021? It seems like if they don't do anything else in the offseason, we'll see what happens. They declined Edwin Encarnassion's option, and it seems like Vaughn can kind of fit in there as the first base of the DH at some point next season. season, is that something you would expect?

Yeah, you know, I would tell you something I need to really reevaluate for my 2020 ranks as I'm working on them. Vaughn might be the most getable player for 2021 to draft early on because another thing that they did was he worked on third base at the alt camps. It was something that kind of broke that he was going to start working for some third base for flexibility. He never got out there. But people forget, Andrew Vaughn was maybe one of the best pure hitters in the last couple of years that's come out of a draft.

and you know, Andrew Vaughn and Spencer Torkelson have been, you know, pitted up against each other, both as Pack 12 first baseman for a long time. And if you asked a lot of valuators over the last two years, Andrew Vaughn would take the win. Better hit tool, not as much power is Torkelson. Torkelson can beat a little bit low where Andrew Vaughn would not. So there's a lot of people that would, you know, I don't know if they do it today, but they would have taken Vaughn over Torkelson. I think that sounds crazy for a lot of people. He's ready. Played a Cal.

He played at the highest level. One of the best hitters. He's multi-positioned. eligible right now. I've seen him a couple times. I'm not in absolute love with him, but he is an absolute major league player now. And I just throw out this little caveat. I don't know how easy it's going to be for the White Sox

to bring in free agents across the board. And they're going to have some spots available. Right now, Andrew Vaughn, I mean, E5 was essentially drafted as a stopholder for Andrew Vaughn, and now he's gone. I think Andrew Vaughn could break camp as a DH, and he would provide them with first and third base eligibility. I just don't know if they're going to find a

of other great options unless Arruso wants a veteran. So I would bet on Andrew Vaughn next year and just watch out. That bats for real. So you mentioned Torkelson. Let's transition right to him. The White Sox are contenders. The Tigers likely not. Torkelson hasn't gotten any minor league time yet,

but he's supposed to be a pretty advanced hitter. Do you think we see him not right away, but at some point in 2021? My gut says yes. He was surprised everybody. by being drafted as a third basement. And I saw one of his last games at ASU. It was really fun to finally get to see him in person on a super cold night in Arizona before everything kind of shut down.

And his power is insane. It's one of the most ridiculous power grades I've ever seen on a prospect just in person, especially at the college level, super smart, great defender, doesn't get fooled as much as like I had been told. And I think he's one of the most exciting prospects. I've got him as a top six prospect overall in my ranks. And the third base thing is the caveat that could keep him out because he's working at a brand new position.

But I think there's a real possibility later on. We do see him. There's a flood coming. There's a flood coming of Detroit Tigers prospects that I don't know if it's going to happen in 2021. It might be 2022. And I think they could bring Riley Green and Torkelson up pretty close to each other. So if I had to bet and it was Torque, I would say, you know, maybe it's like August or

something like that. So I wouldn't be drafting him. But he is going to, with whatever. minor league season we do actually get next season and whatever capacity it looks like. Torkelson is going to, you're going to be trying to fight like why you don't have him at number one. I think that's where he's at. I don't know

if they're really going to stick with the third base thing anyway because they just called up Isaac Perettas last season who maybe maybe he doesn't stick as a starter but I would think they'd want to at least give him a shot there and by the way it's Esak. It's Esok Pradesh. Isok. Wow.

Isok Paratus. A little, little, breaking some breaking some news here. Issoc Paratus. I had never heard that pronunciation before, but I guess it's, it's, it's, it makes sense. Okay. So, yeah, I, I kind of think Torkelson's going to end up at first base. And maybe, it was like a candelario.

And Candelario can play third base. I mean, they've got, they've got flexibility. I think this is probably like pool holes. You know, people forget, like pool holes played some third base. I think it has rookie season, maybe the first two, even a little bit outfield. It's just about getting these bats in. There are guys that, you know, Wander Franco may play third. you may get Torkelson playing a little bit of third as well.

Ultimately, this is a gold glove first baseman with 40 plus, like, Homer potential. So, yeah, the future's bright and Torkelson, one of the best. All right. So if anyone's looking to bandwagon a team before it actually happens, you want to hop on a little bit early? It sounds like the Mariners and the Tigers are probably the teams to do it with Welsh. So they have. Agreed.

Yeah, totally agree. And they got others. They both teams have had really, really good drafts and international classes for the Mariners, for sure. All right, let's play a quick game of guess who. I don't know if this player still has his prospect status or whatever. It'll always be a prospect in my mind until he either goes away or he actually is given a fair shake. Are you ready?

It's going to be a non-prospect. We're going to have our minds on prospect. Whatever. Before you said anything, I was going to say Lastings Millage, but then I was like, oh, he's still around. So, okay. So this is a guy that didn't get his fair shake. I'm trying to figure it out, but okay.

Is Lasting's Millage playing in like, some random country like Mani Ramirez and their like teammates somewhere. I hope so. I would love to get just like a random Twitter video of lasting millage just dropping something like 425. That would be awesome. Very nice. All right.

Number one, I'm a former first round pick in 2016. I don't know if Welsh has all the first round picks. Brady Aiken? No. And you can just... The years and where they were drafted, that's not going to be a big key to me, but keep going.

Okay. And you can just shout out. answers whenever you think you got it. I am batting 305 with 48 home runs and 52 steals over 396 career minor league games. So again, that's 305, 48 home runs, 52 steals, 396 minor league games. Former first rounder. Sounds like he's doing pretty well. I saw 69 plate appearances in the majors in 2020.

Nice. In 2020. Yes, very nice. And I had just a 590. OPS. Sub 600 OPS in 69 played appearances in the majors in 2020. This one is bothering me.

I feel like I have this. You think you got it? No, I don't. I don't. Like, I feel like I can, because the stolen bases are a big marker here for a prospect that's gotten a little bit of run with that power,

but it's just not clicking. Keep going. My early NFBC ADP, I don't know if this helps anyone. It's 183.6. It's always being driven. So he does have some redraft appeal. Is it Dylan Carlson?

It is not. That's not a bad guess, though. Yeah, he has more homeless. This is my last guess, so I'm going to be pissed when you tell me the name because I'm going to be like, of course. If I ever get consistent playing time, you would consider me lucky. No, this is, you just did a name. I can't. Hang on.

Former first round pick. I told you I'm horrible at this. Scott, you're supposed to do this. You should have saved me two guesses ago. I know. Luck is in his name. He just, he debuted this year. He didn't debut this year. He debuted in 2019.

Oh, okay. All right, and he got 69 at bats this year. 396 minor league games, 305 batting average, 48 homers, 52 steals. It's going to be infuriating. when you say this name. It will be infuriating when you say it. I'll give you an off-the-cuff clue. Okay.

I have lefty-righty splits. I have issues with splits. Okay. Thanks for that. If I ever get consistent playing time, you might consider me lucky. We might be the two dumbest people. Scott,

do you realize how many people are screaming at us right now? They are so mad. I think this is genuinely difficult. No, but he's doing the, Frank's doing the name thing. Like, it should be so clear to us, and it's not clicking with me whatsoever.

I don't even know what that means. Lucky, like, I'm thinking through the lucky charms, right? Is this a Babib thing? Is this a Babib thing? Or like, you know,

Clover. I don't know. Is this a Babib thing? What's his first name? What's the vision does he play? And that helps a lot of them. The National League West. Oh, Edwin Rios?

No. No, he doesn't steal bases. See? Sam Hilliard? No. Sam Hilliard was a great guess. His first name rhymes with Blavin. What?

This is the worst. Why did you do this, Frank? Who is it? His name rhymes with what? Blavin, which is not a word. I'm trying to think of an actual word that this rhymes with. Now they're yelling at us. All right.

All right. It is, are you ready for the big reveal? Sure. Gavin Lux. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. I mean, in hindsight, in hindsight, we're my clues bad.

The lucky one? I hate you for it. It threw me so off track. No. I thought it would give it away easily. It's like Lux. Oh, man. Should I say, should I have...

It's a giant prospect. That's the embarrassing part. It's such a massive prospect. Should I have said Luxie? You gave us what his first name rhymes with. I was like, who's Gavin? What Gavin is out there that's lucky? I don't know what Gavin lucky.

That was, I told you. You know what it really was? He said, I'm not sure he's a prospect anymore. That made me think he was like 27 years old when he said. Yeah, like not. Not so high end. I think like Rowdy Tellez. I look at prospect lists and he's not listed anymore.

So I don't, yeah, he just hit off a qualification. Yeah, he must have lost the qualification. So you're technically right, but that's just not what I was thinking. So,

I mean, but the gat the rhymes, what did you say rhymes with schmavin? I think I said blavin, but. Blavin. Blavin. Yeah,

why did you add to, like, why did you say he rhymes with Kavin or Gavin? Yeah, Kevin. Why'd you put an L in there? Kevin would have made sense. It's all your fault, Frank.

It's the word. I mean, I have the excuse. We're definitely redirecting the blame here. I said I'm not good at this, but that was amazing. Well, this was basically a seven-minute game to find out will it ever happen for Gavin Lux? Will it happen in 2021? Come on. They won the World Series.

Let's get some kids involved now, man. Who cares about winning anymore? Let's get the kids in. I mean, I agree. You know what? it's funny, I did go to a Dodgers prospect because Edwin Rios is like a super deep guy of people that I would be looking at this year. I think Turner could be gone. Lucks could now it just gets it all funky. Muncie could go over to third and I think Edwin Rios could play some serious at bats

at first base and that is a dude that's going to hit some homers. But like I'm super discouraged. I've always been a little bit discouraged when I see Gavin Lucks in person compared to like the numbers you see on a page because he really shines. He really like when he's, like, when he He is the overachiever at a level. He takes advantage of it. When he's on level playing field, at least what I've seen so far, it's a little bit discouraging. The power kind of disappears.

His plate discipline, Plistman goes away. Kind of like Dylan Carlson, kind of like what Dylan Carlson went through. For the Dodgers to give up like they did. I mean, I want you to think about this. The angels held on with Joe Adele

and what he did longer than the Dodgers gave any opportunity for Gavin Lux. In an important year, they said, no, Kiki Hernandez and Chris Taylor. are going to do it. I'm worried that continues on to next season. And I think Gavin Lux might start in the minors next year, which is going to be infuriating. But he's still a great by low guy because he has hit. He steals. He's at a prime position. Dodgers could always make a move off of him. He was a huge trade piece. So I would buy low. I'm tenuous. And I'm actually

a little concerned to hear. Is he really 182 in NFBC? Yep. I don't think there's any guarantees, no guarantees that he starts, especially after what happened this year. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but no guarantees. Though, he was rocking some bombs. The Dodgers a couple times played some of their alt-site video, and he was taking advantage. Tony Gonsland, I think he actually took twice

in one game, and it looked really, really good. But again, that's about, like, when he's comfortable. And when he's not comfortable, he does not adjust well. So he might just be a little bit of a late bloomer. So that's why you buy low. He is the Welsh. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Is It the Welsh.

And make sure you check out the in this League podcast as well as prospect one wells before we let you go just give us a name that nobody is talking about one of one of the wels's sleepers potentially a guy that you can uh get in a dynasty league maybe on the cheap right now oh okay because i was going to say what one i want to say i teased a little bit i'm just going to throw out a guy that doesn't seem remotely close to being able to be at the majors anytime soon but i think in i'm just just do this real quick in 2021 look out for bobby wit in deep, deep drafts if you're doing that type of stuff. They're talking about, especially if in camps, he ends up working in the outfield in, you know, just in spring

training, that could be to get him up soon. And he was a little bit later of a high school prospect. I think there's a possibility that he could be up in 2021. And that would be kind of my big, like, surprise shocker one. As far as a couple of guys that no one are talking about, I mean, prospect people are talking about him, but look out for Tyler Freeman. Tyler Freeman with the Indians and this kid has built muscle. He's got an insane walk to strikeout ratio. It's kind of similar to like what Nick Madrigal does, but this guy has power and he can play multiple positions. And if they're going to trade off of Francisco Lindor, there's a real opportunity that Tyler Freeman could get some run this year. And just two others, I would throw out Jared Oliver

with the pirates who has got power. He can hit and he runs like crazy former U of A prospect. He didn't get some run this past year, but he's a super, super underrated talented player and just someone no one's talking about is Lodi Tavaris with the Rangers who had a surprisingly solid year.

His speed is kind of tapered back, but it's there. His strikeouts dropped from where they were and they'd been concerning before and he finally tapped

into power after four years of kind of disappointment. I've had some, a couple team scouts about a year and a half ago tell me don't forget and don't be the person

that gives up on Lioti Tavaris. With other teams, by the way, this was a scout with another team. And Lioti kind of did it. And I think that's a guy you should look at

like deep, especially play those like five outfielders stuff. Look at Lioti Tava Tavaavers and Tyler Freeman with the Indians. Great information as always. Dude, we could do two, three hours worth of podcasting right now with the Welsh. That's how fun it is. As long as we don't do that game. Don't do that. We can't do it with that game again.

I'm sorry. Never. Look, if he just gets playing time, you would consider him lucky. For the Welsh. For the Welsh and Scott White. I am Frank Stample. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again on Tuesday.

Bye-bye.