Fantasy Baseball Today - Talking Prospects & the Arizona Fall League w/ The Welsh! (11/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

Welcome back to the show, Welshy (2:15)! ... What is the Arizona Fall League and how can we use it (6:10)? ... Kevin McGonigle was the AFL MVP (9:00). ... Esmerlyn Valdez really improved his stock (17:25). ... James Hicks threw 14 shutout innings in the AFL (22:30). ... Max Anderson was a monster (24:32)? ... Where are we on Charlie Condon (30:25)? ... Did we learn anything new about Hagen Smith or Braden Montgomery (37:35)? ... Buy or sell Seaver King (43:26)? ... What do we make of Luis Perales and Daniel Espino (45:48)? ... We wrap up with rapid-fire prospect questions (53:25). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, November 26th. I am Frank Sample. Happy Thanksgiving Eve.

Happy Stranger Things Day to those who celebrate. Today on the show, we are doing. an Arizona fall league recap and some other prospecty things to talk about. And if we're talking the AFL, you know who's here to join us. Chris the Welsh Welsh! What's up, man? Frankie. Frankie Stam.

So what's up, brother? Yeah, man, not much. Look, it was really fun to see you last month, last month earlier this month, Arizona Fall League, first pitch Arizona, watching prospects, home run derby, eating way too much Mexican food. It was a great time. We had a blast. I got towers and Frankie Stamps in my truck.

We went and had the most amount of Mexican food that we did not plan for. We hit night cages where we were, you know, exit velocities. And we had this great midnight batting cage thing. Arizona Fall League, the home run derby in the grass. You caught a ball. I know you probably talked about this a million times. Not only did you get a ball, but then you. whiffed the very next homer just hit right off of your glove it was I kind of saw you get

the ball but the second one where it went off the glove the look on your face was devastating but regardless we had the best time so he's great hanging out with you and miss you already yes yeah it really was a great time top five most embarrassing moment of my life is dropping a baseball in front of the whole fantasy baseball you were pretty devastated it was like and and this is a guy that just got a ball like yeah you just got a ball but this one was wasn't like, because I think the ball you got, the first one, it bounced and like you got it. This one, it was in the glove. It hit off the glove and yeah, your face was devastated, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't be too devastated.

Oh gosh. No one's going to believe me when I tell them I played center field in high school. But maybe I just wasn't really good at it. That's the more likely case. So for those watching, you probably know the Welsh by now. But if you don't, make sure to follow him on X at Is It the Welsh? Of course it is. Anything else you want to promote?

What else you got going on right now? Oh, man. You know, people can check out. We're ramping up over on Fantasy Pros. We got some episodes. We did the live episode, which Frank was a part of. If you guys want to go and check that out, that was a fantastic one. Frank was, I think, the very first guest.

We, like, pseudo brought on like Eric Cross, but of the official guests, you were the first guest on that. So you can see us live and in person with Joe Rico. But check out all the fantasy baseball stuff I got going on over at Fantasy Pros. And then, of course, in this league.com on my Patreon. On top, actually, as people are listening to this, the top 500 prospects, the top 400 Dynasty should be updated. I've been working like crazy with this, so you can check out that and my prospect show,

which is ready to ramp back up, Prospect One. Go check it all out if you dare, if you want to. It's all good. And of course, it's Thanksgiving week. What do we got? Any big plans, any traditions? Are you just gonna watch stranger things all day? What do we got?

I don't know, I beg of a stranger things guy. Like I have watched. No, no, I've like watched all the seasons, but I gotta be on. with you, I think I like zoned out in the last season because I was trying to comprehend, I'm like, what's happening? I don't even remember what's going on. So I might have to like do a rewatch. I'm definitely not going to lock into that. I'm a little bit locked into like the chair company right now and blurbius. Those are my big shows. But no, for Thanksgiving, it's a great

slate of football games. I'm going to be probably doing some writing and just hanging with a fam. Nothing crazy, no awesome crazy Frankie Stamps type of tradition. I know you probably have some great ones. Nothing too crazy, you know, just visit the in-laws, go to my family's house. We usually watch just friends. That's a Thanksgiving tradition, but we've got all the stranger things to watch. I think it's just going to be all stranger things all the time. So I don't blame people. Look, it's like taking them so long to get this done.

Like all the characters started off as 10-year-olds and now they're like 35. So it's been a while, but hopefully the payoff is worth it here, the final season of Stranger Things. Yeah, no show ever disappoints at the end. There's totally not going to be a game of throw. type ending here for sure. Look, they've had so much time. You can't mess this one up. Let's get into the Arizona Fall League.

And first up, before we get into any of the players or anything, why don't you just remind everybody what the Arizona Fall League is? And how do we use it for fantasy? Because I know it's not great pitching. It's a very hitter-friendly environment. So it's like, you know, we kind of take the numbers with a grain of salt here. But what is the AFL and how do you use? it for fantasy. Yeah, so Arizona Fall League, it's just a collection. Every single team sends out

a certain amount of prospects. They come out there. Usually it's a collection of like rule five based players, players that miss significant time in the season and or players that might be close to the majors that teams might want to be working at other positions. Sometimes there's nomadic type of players. Like what do we have with this guy? Bow Davidson is a great example of someone who really popped this year who was with the Giants. And last year he just kind of came out. He was an undrafted free agent and kind of felt like they just threw him out there just to see what they had and then he kind of popped and he had this really great season so collection of prospects usually kind of struggling with pitching i actually thought the depth of the class was more interesting maybe

better than it had been but it lacked elite pitching so that also creates some inflated numbers the walk rates are insane i'm i talked to nacho alvarez about this and he was just like it's berserk how you can have like no runs for like five innings and then the six seventh eighth all the sudden there's just like 12 walks, 15 walks, because you've got these really like dicey relief pitchers out there. So, yeah, walk numbers are weird. The numbers overall are inflated. How do you use it?

You definitely don't get hyper-focused on the physical numbers. You know, people were, as I know we're going to talk about, as Merlin Valdez, there was a stat that was like, Asmirlin Valdez and Barry Bonds, the only two players to do this in any professional setting. And it was like, okay, like, don't do that. Don't do that type of stuff. But what you do want to focus on is,

is you want to focus on the success. You know, you should succeed here. Our players succeeding, um, positionally where, you know, where is a team using a player? Like Royce Lewis was a prime example of that some years ago.

That can kind of dictate how a player is going to come up. But there are instances where there are guys that were just kind of like nobodies come out here in this setting of these, of all like really high in talent and then succeed. And that can be a carryover. You know, Jacob Marcy is I continuously joke about years ago and, and the crap I got.

like that's one that's really worked out. Yoshui Brasino was another one of those. It wasn't on any radars. He comes out, wins a triple crown on the Arizona Folly, got on the radar and guess what? He carried it over. So, you know, six, and there's a couple of those guys, a couple older guys we can talk about a little bit later

that like, yeah, they might not be anybody, but they went from absolutely on no radars to finding success in this type of setting. And I think we do need to pay attention to it. So, yeah, it's grain of salt across the board. You just have to figure out the right ways of taking the evaluation. and putting into players you want to invest in.

Let's take a look at the MVP in a name that we have talked a lot about. We've heard a lot about is Kevin McGonigle of the Tigers, 21 years old. He was the 37th overall pick back in 2023. I will mention the numbers for these, but again, take them with a grain of salt. 362 batting average, five homers, three steals, 12, 10, OPS, 19. I wrote 19 strikeouts, that's probably not right. I think it's 19 walks to 12 strikeouts. It was definitely more walks and strikeouts for McGonigle.

I think it's also interesting that he, played third base while he was out there and mostly has been a shortstop prospect, but clearly trying him out at another position, what did you make of his performance here in the AFL? Yeah, and I think at the end of the day, like the third base thing was creating the position flexibility. I didn't talk to him about this, but I kind of felt it might have been similar to Royce Lewis where, you know, Royce Lewis, when he came out here, they were just like, hey, listen, we don't have a third, we don't have a shortstop. You're going to have to play other positions. I think they wanted to say like, hey, you're probably not our shortstop of the future.

You're going to be a second baseman or third base. We want to know what type of flexibility we can have it to you positionally. And I think they got the answer. He was here. He said it. He was there to work defensively. But obviously his bat shined. You mentioned it was 19 walks to 12 strikeouts.

He ended up having the second most homers. He won the MVP after as Merlin Valdez had a record eight homers in his first like eight games or whatever it was. He tailed off and McGonigle just went below. realistic. You're showing on video. If people are watching on the video, this is a homer that you got that I did not because I was doing an interview with Prospect Savant during this time. But he ended up having, like I said, the second most homers that were out here, a great walk to strikeout ratio. He was stealing some bases. He was near the tippy top of hits overall. He had a 357 slash. And, you know, the more interesting thing that we get is some of these places do have stat cast data. It's obviously going to be inflated. But again, Again, you just have to like know how to decipher through it. And what were some of the things we saw? 13% strikeout rate. He ended up having a almost 16% barrel rate out here, which is pretty dang solid.

You know, zone contact rates were still pretty good, 88.9. Overall contact rates looked a little bit better than most. He got the ball in the air around a 17 degree launch angle. Wobo was over 500. And it was a little bit average bat speed, but like he showed off plus power. he can kind of do a little bit of everything. Like to me, he is going to be a quintessential, like, number two hitter in baseball. And I thought he answered all the questions that people would have for him.

I think he's an opening day start potential guy. And he actually started off slow here, and he got better and better and better and was like a unanimous MVP candidate. So I think there was a lot of positives to take. And his professionalism across the board is like one of the big things to say, wow, this is a complete player. So that's something that we got. Like he can play across the diamond. He's going to not, you know, get into bad with situations. He can do a little bit of everything.

There's a really good fantasy asset in him. And he definitely deserved the MVP. Yeah. So you mentioned that you think there is a chance that he's up on opening day. He did play 46 games at AA this past season. Has not played at all yet at AAA. The early ADP over at the NFBC is 265. He's going about 21 picks ahead of Cardinals' prospect.

JJ Weatherholt. So what do you think of that cost? You know, push comes to shove. Do you think Kevin McGonagle is up on opening day? What do you think about him versus JJ Weatherill? Him versus Weatherholt is a really, really tough one. Like, I would probably, if I had to make one bet, who's going to make the opening day roster, it would be Weatherholt.

I think he's lining up for that. You know, a couple things. I know this is very small, and frankly, the dude may be off the roster in a couple months or weeks at this point, but like Derek Scouble lives out here. He came out. He watched a couple of these Tigers games. He spent some time with McGonigal. And, you know, what would you expect for them to say?

But they're just like, what do you think about Kevin Mcgonagal? And his two words were, he's ready. Like, yeah, he's, dude, he's ready. So, you know, I think there's a lot of optimism around that. I do think this is one of those incidents where they're not going to go and look and they're not going to be like, hmm, you know, it's really great. He had a 17% barrel pressure. They don't care about it. They're going to say, this dude dominated the AFL.

He did it consistently for six weeks. Defensively, he hit multiple spots. And, you know, their narrative coming off of the season was like, what? We need to get more contact-based players. We have too many guys that have high strikeouts. We need guys that are going to get on base. And McGonigal does that. Now, I do think his teammate who was out here, and I think we're going to talk about him later,

Max Anderson, is somebody that could be in that space. He played third. He's a second baseman. I don't think it's out of pocket to say that they could go that route. But you know what? We got a looming, like, labor dispute that's coming up. teams are more interested than ever than locking down these guys for long-term deals.

I just don't think it's out of reason to say that despite him, his AAA stuff, that McGonigal could make it to the majors. They brought him here defensively to see where they can go. He fits a need. He fits the mold of the player that they want. And, you know, he's like a little pseudo face to the organization. So yeah, I think there's a high probability better than Weatherholt.

I would go on Weatherholt on that side. But, you know, just listen to the narratives. Let's see what they do. They bring in another guy and you got McKinsterie. That's a little bit of a problem. But I do think somewhere between second and third base is a home from a gonagal. And I think we will get a significant amount of a bat. I don't remember what the steamer projection was on like games or at bats.

But, you know, like I would think he's going to be 450 plus for this season. Steamer has him at 202 plate appearances, 255, five homers, four steals. Yeah, I would go over on that. I mean, I guess I'm a prospect guy. I try to be pessimistic at times. The Welsh projections of prospects doesn't always pan out, but like this is one of those. Like there's only like a small handful of guys that you want to like,

you know, try to take that stab on. And I think McGonigal is one of the few hitters I would do and do early. All right. Let's take a quick break. And when we return, we'll get back into the NFL right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are here talking about the Arizona Fall League with my buddy, the Welsh.

And next up, We have the offensive player of the year out in the AFL, and it is your boy, Esmerlin Valdez of the Pirates. He's 21 years old, turning 22 in January. He hit 368 with eight homers and 27 RBI. Both of those numbers led the AFL. We actually got to watch him mash in the home run derby as well, which was a lot of fun.

He was in the finals against his teammate, Tony Blanco Jr. Valdez actually lost, but he was hitting some bombs out there. He also posted a 1355 OPS, way more walks and strikeouts. And perhaps no player in the AFL helped their stock more than Valdez while being out there. Do you believe that he is now a top 100

overall prospect or on that fringe? Yes, I have him as a top 100 prospect. You know, to be fair, like, had I had the experiences I had with him here three months earlier, I might have been, you know, in such a, in a quicker space, I might have made that decision.

Because going into this year, he made the futures game. He was one of, I believe two prospects at the time with 20 or more homers going into the futures game that were at the futures game. The other one was Lazaro Montes. And they were the two guys and they were like the 20 or under or whatever at that time. As Merlin ends the year, 286, 26 homers. It's a great year, 450 at Bats, comes out here.

He's Rule 5 eligible, which probably led to a decent amount of this. And he went on an absolute tear. And you joke about my buddy, but like we became, me and him became friends because I did a video on him very early on and then he messaged me and we just me and him just continuously message and we got to have a moment too i put a picture on my instagram at the fall stars finale where he was named offensive player of the year and we were up we were talking and he was like no more video and i'm like i know i'm like it's sad because i would get tons of video because he went off he went crazy when he was out here 368 513 obp eight homers you mentioned same walk to strike out

ratio is Kevin McGonagall hit some doubles. The problem that ended up happening with him is he rolled over on his wrist, I think in the third week it was, missed some time. He never really recovered. I actually even talked to Renee Rivera about that, who was coaching the Scottsdale team, former catcher, and we were talking about how good as Merlin was because I was poking at Renee, I was like, I'm going to win MVP? And he's like, I don't know. He's like, as Merlin, he's amazing. But the injury kind of took some time off. But again, if we can go and take a look at like, some of the underlying data at least because eight homers is whatever like i personally thought as merlin had an incredibly plus vision at the plate like he's one of those guys that he's not swinging

outside of the zone too much he's making really good swing decisions he did get on top of some stuff a little bit later when he was you know his wrist was struggling and stuff but i just thought like he was one of those guys that made some real i have this video where he had like they have the uh replay and he called challenge on a pitch and it was like 0.1, whatever, centimeter off. It was one of the lowest percentages that were in his favor. So I feel like he's just got a really good vision of the zone, and he's got a really great swing.

And some of the data that goes along with it, by the way, he ended up having a 93 and a half average X velocity. This is according to Prospect Savants page, who aggregated some of the AFL data. His bat speed, which we did get, was over 73. So that's more than Major League average, which we definitely like to see. He had an only 14% K percentage,

a 60% hard hit rate, 17% barrel, and his launch angle 20 degrees. So, you know, we talk about all the time. You take the barrel, you take the hard hit, you take the launch angle, those are all really good. Solid bat speed doesn't strike out. I think maybe positionally he's maybe like a left fielder, right fielder.

He's not fantastic there, but I do think the bat is a plus. I have him as a top 100 prospect. He, you know, outside of like me, you know, watching him a bunch, being buddies. I said it after the first week. He's my Yosue Brasino. He's my Jacob Marcy of the year. The problem was he then started setting records and he became everybody. So he wasn't quietly this prospect that deserved more, you know, more status. He got all the status. So that doesn't really work anymore in that. But I do think he's the big pop from the AFL. Yeah, again, that's Esmerlin Valdez of the Pirates here. And he's turning 22 in January. He got 51 games in a

AA. Any chance we see him late in 2026 or do you think this is more of a 2027 call-up? No, I mean, I do think it's more of a 27 call-up, but I think there's a possibility because he was protected in the Rule 5 and he's down the 40-man roster. So, you know, but the pirates are telling us like, oh, we're going to spend money and, you know, if they really do go spend money and they do the, what's the white socks thing? They just go and bring in just a bunch of guys that are just, you know, nomads that are out there on one-year deals and stuff like that to trade him. It wouldn't be a possibility we would see him until, I think, August. So I think there's a chance that we do, but I would hold, he's more of a 2027 guy to me.

The pitcher of the year in the AFL was James Hicks of the Astros. He's an older prospect at 24 years old, struggled mightily in the minors this season, and then showed out in the NFL. He threw 14 shutout innings with 19 strikeouts, just two walks. Welsh, what do we make of a performance? performance like this. He's not a high-end prospect. He's not really on anybody's radar, at least to my knowledge. Should he be now? Yeah, I definitely think he should be now. I mean, he came out here and again, this is one of those where it's like the league is not a pitcher-friendly environment, but he

came out here. He pitched four games. He gave up nowhere and runs. He struck out 19 and walked two. I just want to point out this is one of the most walk heavy places in baseball. Like the walk numbers are absolutely insane out here. And he was able to mitigate it to a 19 to two strike out to walk ratio while also, you know, doing some pretty good stuff. When we can pull up, Prospect Sivant has got some of this data up there. He ended up having the across the league, the seventh best K percentage in the Arizona Fall League. But of real starters, it was like the third. Anderson Brito had the best. Carson Milbrandt had the second best and James Hicks was right there. Obviously, it was a 4% walk ratio, but what I also like to see was like low max evilos that were

against. He wasn't giving up like crazy big hard hit contact. And he had a 17.7% swinging strike rate, which was really solid. So I think he's put himself in the conversation in the starter realm. And I think he's, I don't think he's a top 100 prospect or anything like that. I like Anderson Brito more than him even though like physically Brito is a little bit smaller and there like sometimes the smaller body types have that like relief risk but I like Anderson Brito stuff a bit more but I thought Hicks did a really really good job inducing a ton of strikeouts not walking a bunch and I think that puts him like on a radar in this hitter friendly environment all right let's continue on you mentioned the name earlier and Max Anderson of the Tiger is 23 years old

he is turning 24 in February second round pick in 2023 he wound up hitting 447 with four homers, 18 walks to nine strikeouts, a 1418 OPS, which led the AFL. He is coming off a minor league season where he performed pretty well, but I haven't really heard many people talking about him before the AFL.

Do you buy what we saw here from Max Anderson? Yeah, so the thing that I told anybody that would listen when I was in the Fall League, I kept going, Max Anderson to me was the best pure hitter out here and I tried to get Renee Rivera because I spoke, it was like the playoff game and I got like 10, 15 minutes with Renee Rivera

and I was trying to ask him, I was like, listen, Kevin McGonigal, Max Anderson. Max Anderson, do you think he's the best pure hitter here even comparing to McGonigal? And he was like, well, here's the difference. He's like, they're in two different stages of their career. Max Anderson was a college bat. He is more advanced.

He's kind of at where he's going to be where McGonigal is doing what he's doing with so much room for growth still. So that's why it's not like an apples to apples comparison if you were doing that. But with that said, the data was absolutely ridiculous. Physically, I don't think he is never going to be a base dealer. Probably, I mean, you know, if we're being honest, like it's not the best physical like baseball body. but what I do think is like he was the best pure hitter out here. And a lot of the underlying data kind of supported that outside of like the just ridiculous numbers. He had a 580 Wobah, 362 ISO.

But he had a 96.7 average exit velocity while out here. It's ridiculous. 71.1% hard hit rate. That was the best hard hit rate in the entire Arizona Fall League. So that's where I come back to being like, do you care about, do you, do you, do you, really care about the numbers, the physical numbers of like he hit 500 and blah, blah, blah, don't care about that. But how about having the number one, you know, average X velocity? How about having, you know, the best hard hit numbers that are out here of any singular player?

How about having an over 20% barrel rate? Those are things that I'm like, we do need to pay attention to it. He's another one of those guys like, as Merlin, a very, very, very advanced approach at the plate. He's, I guess he can get to. I think he's more of like, he's more of a lot. like a three category, three and a half category player where I think those hard hit numbers are going to work well. I had a good comp or two of that type of player, but like he's never going to steal. I think he's a middle of the order type of guy. I think I would not be shocked and in the right environment. And frankly, look at the Tigers offense this past year. You put him there. I think he could be a 90 run, 90 RBI, high batting average guy. And I think there's 20 to 25 plus power

in his bat. He ended up hitting 19 homers. in 500 at bats in the minors. And then, you know, he added a handful, you know, when he came out here. I think he hit four. Yeah, he hit four out here. So it's 23 homers in like 450 at bats across the board. So I love his bat. He played a lot of DH out here as well.

But that's why I'm saying, like, I think one of Max or McGonigal can make the roster. But I love the offensive profile of Max Anderson. He's just going to be one of those guys that I'm going to walk out, kind of falling in love with. Would you rather invest in Anderson, or Valdez in Dynasty. You're gross. You're rude. I would go with Esmerlin Valdez, I think.

Even though defensively, I think there's some questions. I just think like, Asmirlin Valdez is undeniable. You know, like when I just think he is an undeniable bat. He has plus, plus raw power. He's got the body that goes with it. He's got the swing. my gosh there are times where like I felt like I was looking at like Julio Rodriguez

and some of the approach he has opposite field power incredibly great opposite field power you know Matt max is dealing with some injuries it seemed like why he was playing DH and there could be some physical stuff with that I don't know I do think it's close max is a little bit more poised but the go back to the Renee Rivera thing where it's like he said Max is at his peak like what we're seeing from Max Anderson this is the guy I feel as Merlin Valdez to me is still untapped I I mean, as brother right now is out in the, I think he's actually in Puerto Rico. He's with O'Neill Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna.

The list goes on, I think, Starly Marte, all these guys. What I think is interesting about that is he is now being surrounded by top-tier talent. And I hope he's asking the questions and he's picking off anything he can from these amazing, talented players. But like, I think he is an undeniable prospect. I think Max Anderson is in there as well. those hard hit numbers look ridiculous. I mean, when you look at the data, by the way, if just Max Anderson alone and you're like,

geez, 20% barrels, 70% hard hit rate, like this guy's going to do some stuff. But I also wonder, could he do like Catele thing? Remember when Catell would hit the ball crazy hard, didn't get the ball in the air a bunch, and he was a doubles king? Vladdy does that. Vlad Jr. does that.

I kind of think that could be Max Anderson. Max did not show off really good launch angle in the AFL. It was like eight degrees. I do think he kind of struggles getting the ball in the air. a little bit. And if you're already a little bit more of a poised prospect, you are who you are, I just wonder if he's going to be a dude that just hits, you know, a ton of doubles, 20-something homers can get a lot of runs in RBI. So I would go a long, long way of trying to deal with that

to give you as Merlin Valdez. All right, let's continue on with some other big names here and check in on what they did in the Arizona Fall League. Charlie Condon of the Rockies, 22 years old, third overall pick in last year's draft, 2024. He hit 3336. He hit 336. just one homer in 22 games. Looks like maybe he was focused more on making contact. He posted just a 17% strikeout rate while he was out there. Charlie Condon has had a tumultuous ride since being drafted, right? Where basically everybody was off of him.

And then he came back this year and he looked better. He kind of like rebuilt some of his value. Where are you at on him from a dynasty perspective coming off the Arizona Fall League, Charlie Condon? Yeah, he looked better. Like I've had, I've, you say the tumultuous relate, I've had a weird relationship with him because I've seen him be so bad in so many points, even in rookie ball. He definitely has like a little bit of an approach change. You know, he showed that off. He had like low whiff numbers in the AFL, which was encouraging. 91 average EV, that's decent. You know, he, um, he was walking. He just, uh, what was it, a 17% K percentage, 12% walk rate.

Like that, you just like to see that from him, but he still eats stuff really low. Like I still think he has a trouble with the zone. I don't know if he's ever going to get better with that. I don't know if that's ever really going to change. But he's got really big raw power numbers. He can get the ball in the air. He had a inside the park homer that he turned into a triple in one of those outings. Like I do think the changes that he's making are positive, but I just don't see him as a top 50 prospect. I don't think he's really going to run a ton.

Colorado is definitely going to help protect him. Could he become a 30 home run hitter? Yeah, absolutely. But, you know, he still is having big issues with guys that can have like, big vertical separation in the zone, you know? So it's like if you are hitting him low and then you're able to command a fastball high, like he's not going to get back to that. He eats a lot of stuff low.

And this is like a, you know, older college, but like, you know, he is played at lower levels. He showed improvement here, which I think is a good sign. So could he be an everyday like regular? Yeah, absolutely. But the Charlie Condon, that was a top pick going to Colorado. Oh my gosh, first year player? I don't think so. I don't think I will at any point have him like definitely not a top 25.

I don't think he's going to be a top 50. I think he's just like a 240 type of hitter that can hit 25 plus homers. He's a guy that you're going to draft in like the 200s, you know, something like that. So as encouraging as some things were here, I saw still a lot of the bad and I didn't walk away making any changes. Yeah, so Charlie Condon got 55 games in at AA. I actually went to a Somerset Patriots game. And I saw him go up against Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. He smoked an RBI triple.

I actually had that video. I'll pull that up for those on YouTube if you're here watching along here so you can see this one. And Elmer is no joke. Elmer led the minor leagues and strikeouts. Yeah, I was super impressed by Elmer Rodriguez. Look at that high fastball he hit. Yeah, that was Rodriguez-Cruz. Probably a conversation for another day.

But I did like what I saw from him quite a bit. Any chance we see Charlie Condon in 2026? What do you think? Any chance he can help us next season? Yeah, and I, because I do. I think there is because like there's an element of like what more are they looking for for him. You know, he started low. He got up to double A. He went to the Arizona fall league, made it for miss time, showed some changes. Again, I don't want to make it like I don't think Charlie Conning can be anything. I just don't think he's going to be elite. Like I got, I love that swing. Maybe that was even a hanging. Actually, that was a homer. That was not a triple. I don't know why. Yeah, that one is absolutely. That was way gone. I mean, he maybe he turned it into a triple. He's a triple. I mean, he maybe he turned it into a triple. He did that in the Arizona Folley, but that thing was smoked. But that's what he can do. So, okay, Charlie Condon will destroy mistakes.

And you have to be, like, you got to pick lines. You know, what are you? Very, are you a great consistent hitter? Are you a guy that holds defense with great underlying stuff? Let me look at this pitch again. No, that was a hanging breaking. That was like a hanging slider. Yeah, I was a hanging slider up top.

Yeah, 100%. But like, you got to have like some attribute. And one of those attributes is like, if he makes the right decision, He will destroy your mistakes. And Elmer hung a slider up there and he murdered it. So that's what Charlie Condon can do. So it could, he could just come in and out of like phase. He's like one year he's a 220 hitter with 20 homers.

Maybe another year he finds it and he's a 260, you know, with the 35 homers. Like he has that in the tank. But to feel like really, really confident about it, I don't know. He never shined as the best play. He wasn't the best player on his team in the Fall League. You know, that was, that was clearly. as Merlin Valdez. And frankly,

he many times wasn't the best player on his own physical Colorado Rockies team. That was Jared Thomas. Jared Thomas showed a lot of consistency. Former UT guy who was hitting the ball hard, consistently a bunch of contact. So I think Condon is just kind of in the average space here. So like if I owned him and there was a high evaluation,

I'm probably moving off of him in fantasy. All right. Let's take our final break. When we return, we've got two big name White Sox prospects to talk about. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.

We are breaking down the Arizona Fall League with our buddy, the Welsh. And next up, we have two White Sox prospects, Hagen Smith, a pitcher in Brayden Montgomery, and Outfielder. Smith, 22 years old, fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft. Montgomery, also 22 years old, 12th overall pick in last year's draft. One of the big pieces that came over to the White Sox in the Garretto crochet trade, actually, was Brayden Montgomery. both performed well in the Arizona Fall League. Did you learn anything new about these two while they were out there? Hagen Smith and Brayton Montgomery.

You know, Hagan is still just what you think he is. He's a dude that lives in the zone. You know, he was commonly known in college that he got all his whiffs and stuff. He was an in-zone guy. He pumps the zone. He gets people to swing and whiff. Really heavy, just like slider fastball. He started implementing a change-up.

And he was just more of that. He had one, you know, a couple really good games. where he induced, again, a ton of strikeouts because like this is a bad environment guys are ready for walks and you just got Hagen Smith just pumping these fastballs and slide. And he could get his slider out of the zone and induce some whiffs and stuff like that.

But then also you had just like really good fastball hit. I mean, Brandon Winneker did not have a great Arizona Fall League, especially the first half. The second half he kind of came back through. His defining moment where things started to turn was against Hagen Smith because guess what? Brandon Winnaker is a grip it and rip it type of guy. And Hagen threw him a fastball and he destroyed it one night in, I believe it was in Peoria.

And that kind of like helped turn him around. So I didn't learn anything new about Hagen Smith, which may be more confirmation. And frankly, not like super excited about it, you know, like I think a changeup would be good for him. But he's still a too heavy, a two pitch pitcher. It's heavy on that with a little bit of change up. And you live in the zone. Like, you got to be like elite, elite to be consistently good. And so I do wonder if there is more relief risk than we've really given a possibility.

But Braden Montgomery was definitely one that like reopened up my eyes. And I saw wild consistency. And I had multiple players talk about how phenomenal. Nacho Alvarez specifically was one who was he just raved about Braden Montgomery. And Braden missed the first week due to an injury. But he was there the whole time rooting on his team. Comes out the gates. Very first at bat, smokes a double.

consistently. I'd have to look here. I want, I got to imagine he was near the league lead in doubles. I mean, he did miss time. I guess not. Yeah, he had six. So that was fourth in, in the AFL, um, in doubles, um, in doubles. Um, in doubles. He did end up crushing a homer, had more walks and strikeouts. He's a big kid. Hits the ball really hard, can steal some bases. Some of the data, again, this is from base, uh, from prospect savant. His average EV was almost 94 miles an hour. He put one up almost 112 on the max EV had a 23% walk rate, 50% hard hit rate. The only thing he didn't do well is he didn't get the ball in the air, but he's kind of a doubles hitter. So that comes back to that Vladdy type. You know, he makes a lot of contact. He

walked a bunch, doesn't, but he's very strict on the zone. I think he's an advanced plus hitter. He's going to have to figure out how to maintain that. And hopefully over time, he'll learn to loft the ball a lot. If he doesn't, then Braden Montgomery, is probably going to be like a 20 homer, 10, maybe 15 stolen base guy, good runs an RBI, and maybe he hits around 260, 270. And if he learns to lift the ball,

he is legit a guy that could hit 35 homers. So I don't know what path that's going to go, but I actually think it's a tremendous floor of any of the AFL guys we walked away from. Unlike the other Montgomery from the White Sox, Colson, who was out there a whole bunch. Colson was like learning to be a different player and, you know, consistency, inconsistency strikeouts.

Bradie Montgomery came out, and he was just one of the most dangerous bats you could put in the AFL. So I think it's stock way up on him just in the confirmation of the type of player he was. And I don't even think he got to show off the ultimate skills. Like, if this were two or three more weeks and he had played week one, like I do think Montgomery could have even started to vie for like an MVP type of an award. He just, I don't think, played quite enough, only 12 games in the NFL.

You just reminded me that whenever he gets to the White Sox, it's already a pretty long last name. We're going to have B dot Montgomery on the back name of the jersey and C dot Montgomery for Colson and Braden there. They might cheap out though and just have two Montgomery's though. You could see that they might be a team that does that. Yeah. Yeah, they do have a history of someone cutting up their jerseys and stuff like that too. Shout out to Chris.

Hopefully Chris Hales nowhere to be found. Do you think we see either Hagen Smith or Montgomery in 2026? Yeah, I mean the timeline with the White Sox is like a mystery. Like, are they, if they do the same thing they did last year, which is sign a bunch of just, you know, like I said, nomads that are out there, guys looking for one year contracts that they can try to sell off of and projects, you know, like the Joey Gallo stuff. I don't know. That's going to, that's going to push the timeline again to probably August. But I do think Montgomery is probably further from Hagen Smith. I think they're going to just make a decision pretty close into the year.

Like May, June, I think we're going to have a good idea of like what the White Sox want to do with Hagen Smith. Are they going to transfer him to relief like they did with Grant Taylor, which I don't think they would do? Will they bring him up and start the timelines of Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith? I think that's a possible. That's more of a possibility than Montgomery because Montgomery missed time when he was drafted due to the injury. He got injured at the end of this year. He made up time with the AFL. Like I think they're going to slow roll him a tiny bit, but I do think he is so advanced that like June or July, the timeline is open for both of those players.

So I think you could get a half a year, but neither one to me or guys that I would. be investing in and like, you know, NFBC, like early stuff. Let's talk about Seaver King of the Nationals. 80 grade name, by the way. That is amazing stuff. 22 years old, first round pick in last year's draft. That's a pretty common theme here. 2024.

Very popular for this year's Arizona Fall League. He hit 359, two homers, six deals, 1031 OPS, 11 walks to 15 strikeouts. This was actually much better than what we've seen from him so far in the minor. So from a dynasty perspective, would you be looking to buy or sell Seaver King based on what he did in the Arizona Fault League? I think I'm a buyer on Seaver King because I don't think his value is like incredibly high. I think it was higher in the draft and then I think it came back down with, you know, okay numbers. I thought he really shot me.

The Scottsdale team, you got to remember. This Scott Still team was McGonigal, Max Anderson. You had Severe King, who met Chris Swero, who were not talking about. out here who's a total dude like they had and parks harbors another guy that might bring up like those are guys they they had a monster team and sevor king was hitting at the top of the lineup every single day and the the data ended up backing up something that you saw every single day the simplistic thing was holy crap he hits the ball hard every outing every single time it looks like he's hitting it hard and guess what he did 94 average x velocity he also hit one around 11 so he gets that like

upper tier, you know, the 110 max EV marker we want for like at least, you know, more of an advanced power number. He struck out less than 20% of the time. He had a 62% hard hit rate out in the AFL. Again, these are all very inflated numbers. But what you're seeing is, it's like, he is hitting the ball consistently hard. He does barrel it. He got it in the air. I don't know if he's ever going to like really, really click into being a big home run guy. But, you know, could he be a 1520 guy? Could he be a 1515 guy? Yeah, I think he's going to be a 1515 guy. Yeah, I think he's going to aggressive on the base paths. I thought he hit pretty consistently for average too. I liked what I saw of him. He was like, he was all business too. I mean, he was out there to get hits, get on base and do his

thing. 359, 468, 563 slash line with six stolen bases, two homers, five doubles. I think I'm a buyer on Steveer King. I think he is in that like top 100 range. All right, last two names that I have for you and then I'll throw it your way and you can bring up anyone else that you want to. but two pitchers working their way back from injuries. We had Luis Perales of the Red Sox and Daniel Espino of the Guardian. So Perales performed poorly, but I heard the stuff was electric while he was out there. Obviously, like has a lot of things to work on in terms of control. Espino, former top pitching prospect in all of baseball, really hasn't pitched since 2022.

I mean, it's been one arm injury after another, one shoulder injury after another. He looked really good, albeit in a really tiny sample size. where are you at on these two? Luis Perales of the Red Sox, Daniel Espino of the Guardians. Yeah, and I saw Parallis pitch, I think, twice, but I saw, I think, every single outing of Espino. And Espino left a little bit early.

I was really impressed with Daniel Espino. Now, there's a chance that Espino could just be a reliever. He had such massive injuries that took so long. They used him in one inning. I mean, I thought he was a guy that would pitch the entire time he was out here because he had one outing before the minor league season ended. Then they brought him to the Fall League and they had to pitch like four outings. And then poof, he was gone.

He did start every game in the first inning and then he left. So I really don't know what the long term plan is, but he was close to unhittable when he was out here. I mean, it was swinging with stuff. He got out of a jam or two. Fastball was pumping. If I remember correctly, it was like, you think he was sitting 97, touching 98, 99. Slider looked good. his parents were out there every single day.

Like I was really, really impressed with what Daniel Spino did, but it's like total mystery, you know, barely pitch anything, been gone for three years. What could possibly be the plan for him? If he gets back, stretch is a starter. I think Daniel Spino has the chance to kind of float back to being maybe a top 100 prospect, but there's no way you can't deny the injury history. Like he is one wrong pitch as a high velo pitcher. I mean, he added a bunch of.

of muscle. Like he's a muscular guy now, but he has one wrong pitch away from just like being gone again with his track record. You know, Luis Perales was absolutely electric when he threw strikes. And that's the thing I'm trying to come to terms. So that's another guy that missed like really significant time, did not pitch a bunch before coming to the AFL. And he was like one of the opening day starters. He ended up having a 31% K percentage out here, but an 18% walk rate. He touched a hundred, but he was super, super inconsistent. And that's the thing. When people are like, he's electric,

it's like, yeah, when the pitch was on, his fastball looked relatively unhittable. Slider was great. But he also had wildly crazy command issues. So, again, is Luis Perales a relief pitcher because of this? Will they continue to stretch him out? Like Luis Emiliano Teoto was back out here this year. He was one of those guys that he could hit like 102.

And they put him as a starter. And he had walk issues. And now he's a reliever. again. If you want to make the upside bet, the upside bets Luis Perales. He has got nasty stuff if he can figure out how to lower the walks, but he was wild as hell out here when I saw him. And I don't know. I want to say like Daniel Spino's maybe got a better chance of being a starter sooner, but they're both, I think they're both cool bets because I think they're low cost right now. Unless someone was really tied to the AFL, people aren't paying attention. And my favorite thing on the

planet with dynasty pitchers, prospect pitchers, is buying the cheaper guys. Everybody wants to buy the top in guys and it costs an arm and a leg. But it's like, give me the guys with the crazy upside that are like outside the top 100 that have room to grow. And the cost return is exponential. And Luis Perales specifically probably has one of the top return rates. But, you know, also, how does he get to the majors with the Red Sox right now? They're a pitching factory. They just traded for Sunny Gray. They might bring in another one. Like it's, I don't know. I think there There's a big question to have there, but I think they'll slow the role, both very interesting prospects. Anybody else worth mentioning Welsh that you saw while you were out there or you heard someone else talking about?

You interviewed a manager or just people in the stands kind of clamoring about. Anybody else you'd like to bring out from the Arizona Fall League? Yeah, let's do a pitcher and a hitter. The pitcher, actually, I'm surprised we did not talk about. He was the one that I walked away. I was like, this is the dude, is Luis Dalyone with the Baltimore Orioles. He was my favorite pitcher to watch out here. and I got to see him in some battles,

some duels against Hagen Smith. And Luis Dalyon had a 32% essentially a 32% K percentage. He did have some walk issues in one of his outings, which again, this is kind of like the Luis Perales stuff. But, and also there's like a Prospect Sivant does like a PS scoring, if you will. And he was given, I think, like, top 10 best. And especially if you look at starting pitchers, if I'm looking at this, he was probably number one or number two of the starting pitchers they ranked of the best overall.

It's like a stuff plus score. And the reason behind that, nasty splitter. I talked to a couple players. Remember Ethan Anderson was talking about how disgusting Luis DeLione is. If he can get past the walk command issues like Luis Perales, I think you should consider Luis de Leon a top 100 guy. Pumps 94-95 had the slider. The splitter is something I guess he added this year.

It was a huge, huge width pitch. I really loved it. His last outing, he had it all going. He was throwing strikes like crazy. But third inning thing started to become a little bit of an issue. So you got a monitor, but I think he's a guy that you should make a bet on because he's got a really, really disgusting arsenal, really big-bodied guy. And the hitter, I think there's a couple other hitters.

You know, the All-Star MVP, Roddy Rodriguez was kind of interesting. Another guy I just want to throw out as a quick aside, Owen Ayers with the Cubs was one of those players that was an absolute nobody and no one's mind. Older prospect 24, 25. He ended up coming out here with like some of the best bat speed in the entire league and was really, really good. But Parks Harbor was the player I thought was really, really fascinating. He had a higher K percentage, but he ended up having an almost 95 average exit velocity, which was ridiculous. Hard hit rate in 53. It was like 54%. But he had a total. 26% barrel rate gets the ball in the air, hits some big homers. He ended up was in the home run derby, the AFL homerun derby. But he had some really, really great underlying numbers that look like someone who could pop,

like when given an opportunity. And he's kind of like a no name in any spot, you know, in like any prospect list or whatever. I don't know if he can do it with the Giants. Maybe he can get an opportunity. They already are going to give the opportunity to Bryce Eldridge. But, you know, they brought him out here. I thought he just absolutely answered a ton of questions, really, really great hard hit numbers. If he can lower the strikeout rate, like Parks Harbor is a dude that, you know, 30, 25, 30 home runs that just kind of came out of nowhere.

I would not be shocked about that. Who would you rather invest in from a dynasty perspective right now, Luis de Leon or Parks Harbor? Luis Dalyone. I think there's like really, really massive upside like with that splitter that he could be a big time pay pitcher. And he's not like working his work. way back up like the paralysis in them. So Dalyon. Parks Harbor, former Yankee farmhead here too.

He came over in that Camillo DeVal trade. You know, man, they gave up quite a bit, man. You know, Jesus Rodriguez, I think, was in that trade. Yeah. You know, DeValbald didn't look too good. We'll see if Yankees can get him back on track. I do have some other prospect-y-related things that I wanted to ask you about here so we can kind of wrap up with some rapid fire here.

And it's mostly stuff, I think, for this upcoming season for 2020. We actually just had a Yakyu Cosmopolitan on yesterday or two days ago. A plus name, by the way. What a name. Yeah. That's actually, it's not real name, but obviously it's like his ex name, his website and stuff. Breaking down the Japanese players, do you have any takes at all for Murakami, Imi, Okamoto, Tanahashi that are coming over? Yeah, I mean, I'm filtering the same information that everybody else has.

So like, you know, I'd be careful about it. I'm absolutely worried about me. Mirakami and his chase issues and like the upper Velo stuff. I'm, I think that is a big concern for value. Akamoto is really interesting, a little bit older, better contact guy, gets the ball in the air a ton. You know, his power numbers have been jumped off, you know,

the page or anything like that. But I was like, man, you know, either one of these guys in like a New York or something or a good hitting environment or exciting. So I think Akamoto's probably going to be a little bit more in my world. Because, dude, if Marikami signs of the Yankees or something, Like there is a big offensive potential, but like he's gonna rock it. He's gonna skyrocket.

And it seems like there is, I don't know if the, the ceiling is good enough to justify what you're giving away with the floor, if that makes sense with the Merikami. Um, but Amai is really, really interesting. You gotta love the, the, this is the pitcher who was talking about like wanting to beat, you know, the Dodgers and teams like that. So as a diamond back fan, it's like, oh my God, bring them in here. I think a lot of Yankees fans are. like he's coming in. The most fascinating thing about him,

which I think he is probably the one I'm most into. Enoceros talked about him on the live show that we all did together. People can check out on the video. But it is the, what they call it, the wrong direction slider. He throws this slider that goes arm side instead of glove side. So it's just like when he throws it,

instead of it coming in, it's going out. And it's a super weird pitch. Also the low angle creates just like a really weird, a really weird spacing for like how the pitch is coming on people. I know like Lance Brasdowski has compared it to like a Luis Castillo. I think he's the one maybe pending the environment that I'm most interested in, especially if it's a pitcher-friendly environment where you've got like good coaching and maybe they can work through that slider and there's talk of like a sinker because he's got a really interesting

arsenal, but that reverse, again, I don't remember what it's called like wrong. reverse slide or whatever it is. Like that thing really seems like it's got potential to play at the major leagues with big whiffs if he's got the right arsenal around it. So I think Amai is the one that I'm like most interested in. But I would probably rank it from like what their value is. Amai, Acomoto and then Murakami. Just for next season.

Are you thinking that long term as well or just for next season? Oh, okay. So if you're talking about like long term, uh, you know, Akamato, I don't think is old. Like they're like, he's so old. It's like he's 29. But there does seem to be a timeline on these guys where like, like, you know, if things don't work out, you know, it's maybe two or three year.

That's why Murakami is so interesting because he's got the years on him. So, you know, from that perspective, I do think it's, I think it's this order that you have. I think it's Merakami, Amai, and then Akamoto as far as like a dynasty value. And Murakami's going to be a lot more valuable in a dynasty space. So if he figures the stuff out, if they can work through, if he goes to an environment, if he goes to the angels, I mean, what are they going to do? They're going to just like, good luck, bud. You know, like, but if he goes to a place that is really going to work through these chase issues and work with him, maybe potential swing changes, because like it does seem like he gets a little low, like I can, all the stuff is like he's got great launch angle and stuff. And it's like, because, you know, he's sitting on low velo's like he's getting under stuff. So it might be a harder time getting to hire velo stuff, especially if they're pitching him high. If they can work through and fix that, dude's got raw tools. He's got like big, crazy raw tools that are going to play. So I would probably play the upside and long.

longevity of him and then Amai and then Akamoto is probably like a tier down long term. Next up Welsh, by yourself. Jeff Pass and says the Pirates will give Connor Griffin a real chance at the opening day roster. Dude, me and James Anderson had, definitely not heated, but we had a debate live at the stadium about this very exact thing. And then it went over to we did a live panel as me, him, and Eric Cross. Jesse Zvere was hosting it. And James really, and hats to him, because he was way before this news came out, he was on the side of that they would give him a contract.

My argument was, they're the pirates. You know, like, he's like, you know, they could do it. Yeah, they could, but they're the pirates. Why would they? You also have a looming labor dispute, which one way or the other, like maybe either it hyper pushes up teams wanting to get these contracts before God knows whatever happens with, you know, they're not going to. do a cap, but they want a cat. You know that, you know what I'm getting at. Or it could work in the opposite end where like they might be pushing for things that could work in their favor. So I don't know. So to take a, uh, a 19 year old shortstop who is a unicorn, yes, but got to double A on a team

that isn't going to win. Like I, why would I make that assumption that they're going to do it? But then they come out and say that they're talking about it and they're going to spend all this magical money and stuff. I think they would be better suited. Locking up this super young, amazing, great talent than bringing in just absolutely ridiculous stupid deals just so their money is up when the labor agreement says, hey, look, these three teams down here don't pay any money. They shouldn't get any profit shares. You know, that's obviously where it's going to. I'd rather them do it on Connor Griffin. So to answer your question, I am going to say, I'm going to stick with myself that he's not making the opening day roster, but they are literally talking about it. So this might just be

irrelevantly and stupid of me to even say, but I'm going to say sell on that. It looks like the market is certainly buying the overall NFBC ADP for Connor Griffin is 339, the last seven days, up to 289. So up 50 spots already. And if he does anything in spring training, if he hits a home run in the first week of spring training, his ADP is inside the top 150. So the one thing, I don't disagree with that. I mean, if they lock him up, all bets are off now.

Because he is, like I said, unicorn of a player. The one thing I do wonder is if there's any players out there because there's this labor agreement and all these types of stuff, what if there are more Jackson Merrill's than there are not? And what I mean by that is remember Jackson Merrill, he didn't take the deals. Like he sat on it for a while. He wanted to wait for his market value.

He just kind of wondered if that's floating around that they say, hey, we're not in any hurry. You know, we're not in any hurry to do this because they know the market value could go from you signing some team-friendly, like just so stupid. Those numbers are so dumb. Eight years, 95 million or whatever, to 10 years, 120, 2. You can get over 200 million if you sign your deal if we wait it out a little bit.

That's why I think that that's a possibility of it being a sell. But boy, it is so much louder. Yep. Next up, we have buyer sell. Nolan McLean should be the first rookie pitcher drafted for next season. His ADP is 109, which is about 11 picks ahead of Chase Burns and 15 picks ahead of Jacob Miziarowski. Oh, you already know the answer to this. That is a bye. He was my topic of conversation in the video, the live episode that we did. Yeah, ridiculous. I think it was six pitches of over 100 stuff plus, and I believe his slider, if qualified, would be the number one stuff plus pitch out there. He's kind of a unicorny pitcher. No one ever really caught up with him. He's insane RPMs, like 3,200. So lots of spin. Really, really good command, not walking. His stuff is ridiculous. You worry about regression.

yes, but I want to make a bet on Nolan. So yeah, that's a buy for me. I mentioned Chase Burns, Jacob Mizirowski, also Cam Schlitler. They're going one to two rounds after Noel McLean. How do you rank those three just for next season? Burns, Mizirowski, Schlitler. Oh, gosh, that's so tough. I think if I was playing upside, I'm going to go Burns.

And I might go Schlittler and then Miserowski. If I want a little bit more floor, I think I'm going to go Schlitler, Burns, and the Mizorowski. be down. Miserowski so much fun and he has these moments but you know there's still big command issues and Chase Burns does as well I just feel like we're close to him clicking and I think when he clicks

it's even more dominant but Schlittler's the safer bet and maybe Schlittler's the number one answer like you shouldn't play upside with all those guys because of how good Schlittler was. Yeah I would still go Chase Burns at the top of that list as much as I love Cam Schlutler and what he did in the postseason he looked awesome

down the stretch I do worry a little bit about these big Velo jumps he's had the past couple of years. Over the past two years, he's gone from averaging like 95, all the way up to 98, 99. So I just kind of, but that's also worry about that.

That's been their development. I think they were like near the top of like lower level. Like they prioritize Velo jumps and they've done a really good job of like making that happen. But to your point, like Luis Heel is an example that's kind of volatile. But I see where you're going. You're saying that from like an arm fatigue like falling apart issue. Yeah. So there are.

few different studies and things that I heard while we were out at first pitch Arizona like the number one indicator of future arm injuries is you know a jump of two plus miles per hour over like a two year span and basically you know uh slittler has jumped like three four miles per hour on his fastball so look he is a bigger dude maybe he just has that body type where he can hold up and it's not an issue obviously I'm hoping it works out that way but I I do have a little bit of concern over that for camp slittler. Trey Yassavage is going around pick 150, Bubba Chandler, around 160. So a little bit lower than that group.

We just spoke about who do you like more between those two, Yassavage versus Chandler for next season? Yashavage was awesome. I'm a Bubba guy, though. I really, I know it was such a volatile roller coaster, but, you know, when he got up, even though this is a Pirates thing again, they, you know, they put him in that like multi-eaning relief role. He really succeeded. They then put him as a starter.

His last three starts, he went like five or more. I don't think he had a walk in his final. three starts was the 3% or 4% walk rate when he came up his fastball looked phenomenal like I he's out there training right now with Paul Skeens uh in the off season I I'm I think Bubba is going to kind of rebound off of what was a very big disappointment in 2025 the expectations every week we're like where's Bubba Chandler you know like he's there he's the guy I want to invest and I think he's a really really great upside play but I will reiterate here I think what I said on our live panel this awesome we're talking about all these guys you got to pick your poison you can't be like

okay, I got McLean, I got Chase Burns, and I got Bubba. Let's go, guys. Like, nope, that's way too volatile. I'm going to invest. It would be maximum two. It'd be like McLean and Bubba. But if I were to take like Mizorowski and Chase Burns, like how can you take on any more?

It's risky enough doing two. I think you need to kind of pick your poison. At most, it's like McLean and Bubba for me is what I would do, but don't get too overweighted, especially for this year in those guys. Dynasty, it's a different discussion. Yeah, I do think it depends on, you know, league context and things like that.

If you play in a home league, like 10 or 12 teams, take shots on as much upside as you can possibly get. If you're playing in some of these deeper 15 team leagues and FBC where the replacement value is just nothing, then you probably want to play it safe. Probably don't want more than one or two of those pitchers we just spoke about. Also dependent if like the same thing of what you're saying, if McLean is like your SP4 and Bubba's your SP5,

like, but if they're your SP like 6 and 7, that's a different discussion as well. too. What about if Nolan McLean is your SP2? What do you think about that, Welsh? I don't love it. Not really. Not a big fan. Is that coming from any certain gladiator that I might know? We did in early draft champions league while we were out at first pitch Arizona. I forgot about that. I waited way too long on pitching and I got Framber Valdez as my SP1. Nolan McLean as my SP2. Me and James were sitting at the pool waiting for everybody to appear. I think we had just gotten some lunch and we're sitting there. There's a giant huge monitor in front of us with some guy that's on Twitch.

Like we're just sitting there. And I see you post it. And me and James are looking. We're like, that rocks, that rocks. We're going through it. And then I'm like, look at this. Nolan is the SP2. And he was like, oh, that's going to be a challenge.

But you actually sparked a huge David Bednar conversation in us because you took Bednar, I think, in like the fifth. Yeah, five six turn. Is that right? Yeah, five or six or something like that. And we had this great discussion. So you created lots of great discussion just by your draft there. But yeah, maybe not.

your SB 2. Yeah, probably not as an SP2. Last question here, do you like either or both of Carson Benj or Justin Crawford in draft and hold leagues or just very deep leagues? We've heard both organizations already talk about giving those guys an opportunity. Carson Bench, Justin Crawford. Yeah, that Carson Benj is access to an outfield gig became so much more clear when Sprin and MMO is traded. I think that's already kind of like a clear discussion that's out there that he's going to get the opportunity. He's just a phenomenal all-around prospect. So I would prioritize him over Justin Crawford.

I think the Phillies are in a spot where they've got to make a couple decisions. You know, like we could see Aidan Miller sometime early this year. If they move off from Bome, how many rookies would they want to invest in? Justin Crawford, awesome. You want to bet on stolen bases and some average. He's your play for sure. He could be a poor man's Chandler Simpson. So I'm down to make that bet in like a deeper NFBC much later.

but binge is the priority for me. All right, that'll do it. Wells, here we are. Happy Thanksgiving week to you and everyone else out there listening. Everyone, make sure to follow the Welsh on X at Is It the Welsh? And one last time, I'll give you the opportunity to promote. Let everyone know what you got going on right now.

Yeah, you just follow me on the socials if you want to see what's going on. Patreon in this league.com that you can support the stuff I do in the prospect world. And then I just got a bunch of stuff over on Fantasy Pros. That's where I work. You want to check out some of the pods. You want to see Frankie's face sitting right next to a Rico. We're just having the grand old time. You can see Frank's.

You don't get to see Frank's earrings all the time because you got the headphones in, but you get to see that, yeah, you get to see the earrings in there. I think you're wearing the shirt, the, what was it, the Hawaiian shirt that you had for Kokomo Friday. Oh, yeah. Go check it out over on fantasy. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Pros, MLB. All right. We are going to wrap there for the Welsh.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will do that back again next week. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.