Fantasy Baseball Today - The Best Fantasy Baseball Season Ever w/ NFBC Main Event Champ Phil Dussault! (1/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 11, 2022

NFBC Main Event overall champion Phil Dussault joins the podcast (1:10)! ... We actually competed against each other back in 2019 and we didn't even know it (5:23). ... How did Phil get into playing Fantasy Baseball (7:25)? ... Phil is known as 'The Robot' because of this system he's created (10:07). What goes into the system? ... What stats does Phil focus on most (20:18)? ... Phil makes a draft pick live on the pod (25:40)! ... What did this Main Event championship team look like (30:28)? ... What does Phil pay attention to most in-season (43:12)? How does he spend his FAB? ... We wrap up with some 2022 strategy and player questions (54:20)! ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris and Adam. Welcome in to a special edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, January 11th. I am Frank Stamphill, and we're recording this Monday night. So no Scott. off rooting for his Georgia Bulldogs. Good luck, Scottie. But we have a unique podcast for you as we're doing a bit of a sit-down interview with a special guest, which I teased on yesterday's podcast. He is a gentleman who just had, I'm going to go out there and say it, the greatest fantasy baseball season ever. He just won the National Fantasy Baseball Championship

main event overall, the auction championship, and finished second in the online championship as well. It might all sound very confusing and intimidating for those who are not familiar. with the NFBC, but just know that this man is a beast. It is my pleasure to introduce Phil Dousseau. What's going on, Phil? How are you? I'm good. How are you? I'm doing well, probably not as good as you. We were talking a little bit beforehand, but yeah, you are coming off the greatest fantasy

baseball season ever, taking down multiple overall competitions. And not only that, people might not realize this. You had three teams that finished in the top 24 overall in the main event. And this is out of 645 entries. Each of these are $1,700 a clip. So people need to, I'm just trying to set this up so that people who aren't familiar just kind of understand the grand scheme

of how impressive it was what you just accomplished. And your overall winnings from this past season, $324,000 in fantasy baseball. That's an awesome feeling. There's no doubt about it. Yeah, it's amazing. It was, as the season progressed, I sort of started believing,

about halfway through the season that was doing something special, but then the last month or two were just crazy and hoping everything would go as I'd hope. And I led the main event in previous years. So I've been up there, but it lasted like a couple of days, and I went back down to, I don't know, fifth or tenth or around there. But being up there, I stayed first for three months. So it was nervous.

I came, great feeling, and I was happy when it was all done. Yeah, it's just amazing. Amazing what you put together this past season. I competed in the main event for those who are wondering, well, where did you finish, Frank? 266 overall. So I've got some work to do, and that's part of why Phil's here, so I could pick his brain. And, of course, we could all learn from what he did this past season. Make sure to follow Phil on Twitter at Phil D-U-S-U-S-A-U-S-A-U-L-T-27.

And there are tons of great articles on the Internet right now. now. You can read more about Phil's background and specifically this team that he put together this past season. So one of those you could find over at the score that was written by Travis Sauchick and then over at Sports Illustrated, Sean Childs has written some great content.

Not just one piece. I think there's up to three or four pieces right now about Phil's team from this past season and how he was able to accomplish that. Again, like, I just want to give you a big congrats. People don't even realize how awesome it is the season that you just put together. So have you been able to

maybe just kind of take a step back and take it all in, right? Like the self-realization that you are literally on the top of the fantasy baseball mountain. There's a lot of really, really smart people, and I know that you know that for sure. And amongst all of them, you were the best in 2021. So have you been able to just really take that in? Yeah, I think so. It took me a while. I've sort of realized that people were reaching out to me to be on podcasts. And the first one I when there's a week left when Jeff Erickson reached out to me to be on the Rotterwire podcast. For me, that was, Jeff is the first person I listened to when I started playing fantasy baseball.

So to be a guest on his podcast and talk to him was just amazing. So things like that happening sort of made me realize, oh, this is cool. This is something big. Before that, I just felt like I was, I don't know, just doing playing fantasy baseball in my basement for big amounts of money. But still like just in my base. not doing anything special. Yeah, Jeff's a great dude, and I've been on the podcast with him before.

And look, he's, you know, one of the founding fathers when it comes to fantasy baseball. So it's really cool that you were able to go on there. I actually listen to that podcast as soon as it came out because, yeah, I mean, you're, you know, you're competing for all of this money towards the end of the season. So it was really cool to kind of hear you at that time. And then obviously you were able to take down all of these different competitions. So again, congrats to you. You become a bit of a celebrity here, you know?

I turn on podcast and I'm constantly hearing the name Phil and Phil Dussaud and everyone's talking about what you just did and rightfully. So I was going to, we're going to jump into your background a little bit and obviously we'll talk about the team that you just put together and later on we'll talk about some 22 things as well. I don't know if you realize this, but we competed against each other back in 2019. We were in the NYC main event together and mind you, I was like way in over my head. I showed up with my little ranking sheet

and, you know, I'm taking notes and, you know. Look, I was just weighing over my head. I had someone who wanted to back me. I'm very appreciative for the opportunity. But we competed in the same draft, and it turns out, not only did you win that league, but you finished top 10 that year in the overall in 2019. Yeah, I didn't know about it until he told me.

It was funny. It was when I showed up in New York, I didn't know anyone. I was just a shy kid, just sitting down there for my main event, and then happened that Ryan Bloomfield was right next to me. and he's probably the nicest guy in industry. And we just started talking. And then after talking to him, I sort of felt more comfortable

like English is in my first language. So, no, just all that, not knowing anyone in a room like that. And then just talking to Ryan, sort of just made the experience better. And I talked a bunch of people and made friends there. So it was weird showing up that it was Saturday morning in that room. It was intimidating. Yeah, for sure.

I mean, you've got multiple drafts. going on at once. And, you know, it's literally just a draft that's going around a table and you have a minute per pick. So, you know, it is definitely intimidating. It's a fun experience to do these live events. And I understand why so many people want to get in on them. It really is a fun experience.

But, yeah, I was actually on the other side of Ryan Bloomfield. And you're right. I mean, he's one of the nicest guys in the industry. And we remain friends to this day. So we were, you know, drafting on opposite sides of him. And I'm pretty sure either going into June or July. I was going to say that I was in first that, probably doesn't seem realistic if you were in the league, but I know that I was top three in the

league, and then I lost Chris Sale, and I lost Frankie Montas's suspension, and then everything went downhill after that. So it was a nice little foray for me to kind of jump in, and it was, yeah, I was just looking back at like my historical teams, and I realized, wow, I was in the same league at Phil. Like, how did I not realize this? Anyway, let's jump into your background before we get into your actual team from this past year. Tell us a little bit about yourself. I mean, how did you get to this point, your background, how did you get into fantasy baseball, when you started playing, so on and so forth. Yeah.

I grew up near Montreal, so I was an ex-post fan when I was a kid. But then they moved to Washington when I was probably 12 or 13 years old. So I sort of stopped watching baseball, and the last few years they didn't have a very good team. So I sort of stopped following the baseball. I have my own fantasy football website in college for three years. So fantasy football was my game. I always played it and had my website. So focused on that.

And then Moneyball came out. And with my fascination for math, I was really intrigued by that. And then I read Fantasy Land also. And that was the first time I heard about Roto Fantasy Baseball. So that sort of just, no, just in the back of my mind, heard about it, but never really thought I could play for some reason. And then I heard Jeff and Chris on the Sirius X-Sept. show talk about NFBC. I'm like, oh, this sounds really cool. I've heard about moneyball.

I've heard about Roto Baseball. It's just numbers and I can do that. So I just decided to jump in a main event in 2017. First time I played fantasy baseball was in a main event, which seems kind of crazy and it probably was. But I figured I've got to start somewhere, so why not a main event? That is absolutely crazy. You said it sounds crazy. It is crazy. So imagine this. Again, let's set this up for the people that are listening and watching. Your first time playing fantasy baseball, you jump into a league that costs $1,700. That's pretty crazy. The first year, I split the entry few with my brother. We actually did two main events, which we split. So I figured we'd, I guess, separate the risk a little bit and have two chances out. And actually it went pretty well that

first year. All right. Well, no matter what way you slice it, Phil, it was $1,700 for you. Yeah. Yeah, so that's pretty interesting. Fantasyland, a great book, by the way. Nando Defino is featured in that book multiple times, former host analyst of this podcast as well, and still a great friend of mine. So yeah, for anyone who hasn't read Fantasyland, and whoever, anyone who hasn't read The Process, which is a great book by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell, actually just cracked open mind today. True story. I had no idea that you wrote the introduction to the book, so like, oh, well, this is pretty interesting, and Phil wrote the introduction, and I'm about to

have them on the podcast. So that was a completely random thing. But yeah, go check that book out as well. They're both great. You're nicknamed the robot because you have the system that you created and obviously it helps you draft. It helps take, I think what a lot of people will say about using projections and creating a system and having all these different kind of Excel sheets that help you draft is that it eliminates subjectivity. It's all about projections and spinning them out and basically telling you which player draft, and that's how you earn the nickname, the robot. First off, do you even like this nickname, Phil? I'm okay with it.

I've never, like, I've never called myself the robot. I don't go around introducing myself as the robot or anything like that. So I just call my NFBC teams the robot because I guess that's what people know me. And people call me the robot, then it's fine. I don't, I don't care for it either way. You don't wake up in the morning and then give yourself a little. little prep talk. Come on, Robon. Now you don't do that. It does represent the way I manage my teams, though. So it does fit with my NFBC profile. Which I think is pretty interesting, too, because

just kind of getting back to your background, it's, you didn't really have a fantasy baseball background. It was more fantasy football. And I guess talk more about this, the system that you have. And, you know, you mentioned math already a few times and money balls. So how do you kind of, how does all of that blend together? Like when you're first starting, to play fantasy baseball. It's how do you come up with, uh, blending together, you know, your interest in math and maybe, you know, whatever skills you have using Excel and kind of all these things together and how it kind of led you to this point. So when I started in 2017, um, all I did was average three sets of projections. Um, so it was really simple. I actually did that

for 2017 and 2018. And then I used the, um, standing gain points formula, uh, which, as you said, you in you read the process it's in there um it explains how to value players um so i just use that put that together and then sort of similar to my fantasy football background um just valuing the positions properly without any bias just looking at the numbers like in football the quarterback score more points but it's more about the difference between the players at the position not the exact number of points so when i ran the formula um i adjusted the based on positions, moved up catchers, then adjusted starters, depending on where I thought, based on ADP.

I mean, I have to get starters somewhere. So I just pushed them up to a point where I'd get enough to have a relatively balanced team. And when I did that, it worked, it said draft starters early. So my first main event, my first team actually people think it was crazy. I think it was Sale, Kluber, Melanson, and Janssen, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2 starters, and 2, 2, closed. That was sort of before the pocket Aces was a cool thing. And that team actually finished 12th overall, I believe. So that's one of the things, just not knowing anything about fantasy baseball.

If I'd been playing for 10 years and had played in home leagues where you don't draft Aces early, then I probably wouldn't have done it. But just not knowing anything at all, that's what the numbers told me, though. So it's what I did. And I drafted catchers early that year as well because they seemed undervalued when I did my position adjustments. So that part helped me at the start. And then so 2017 went really well.

2018 didn't go as well. And then that's when I figured I had to step up my game. I can't just average resets of projections anymore. It's not good enough for the main event. So then 2019 I spent hours and hours that offseason just trying to figure out what's not accounted for in projections. So I listened to podcasts and people talking about pitch makes about increase in fastball velo and those are all things that projections don't account for so um i tried

to come up with formulas that would include those in my projections and everything i do i always back test so um if we take fastball velo for example i'll see if if someone increased their velo from 2017 to 2018 then i'll try to combine that with the projection we had for 2019 and then i'll see what happened to that picture at the end of 2019 season. So I won't do anything randomly. It's just all about, I mean, we have the results for the 2019 season, so why not use them? And I knew what my projection was before the season started.

So I just tried including a bunch of things that weren't accounted for testing. Testing, I tested every stat I can think of. And sometimes things that don't even make sense. Just trying to figure out what can make the gap smaller between my projection and whatever actually happened that season. So over the last two years, two, three years, it's been hours and hours of work just testing different stats

and going on fangress, going in savon, trying different time frames, all that stuff. And now I think I've come up with something pretty good. So this off scene, it was quicker than it's been in the past. So most of the work is done. And I still try to improve it. Still want to get better. Yeah.

No, no, I mean, it's fascinating. because obviously look you're putting in tons and tons of hours you're putting the work in so it's really cool to hear that that paid off for you so that that first and foremost that's awesome it's not like all right yeah you're just running projections because look a lot of people are doing that let's be honest people who are drafting right now they're they're doing a lot of the similar things you know one of the main projections we have out right now that uh is free and accessible or steamer projections so i'm i am assuming most people are working off of those there are a few other projections out there right now and i know todd zola and rhodoire they have their their their projections as well. But yeah, so you're going back and you're back testing things, which is just like fascinating because then you can see what actually matters and what doesn't, right? So people talk about pitch mix changes, but you've actually gone in and you've looked and seen, all right, well, if this pitcher does have a pitch mix change or they add velocity, did it actually matter the next year?

So that part to me is really cool because I think we don't, we probably don't spend enough time looking back on what happened. It's like the season ends and maybe we take a month off or whatever. and then it's just look ahead. Like we'll just start thinking about the next season. But like really going back and looking back at the season and kind of learning, that's like almost as important as anything, I would say. Yeah, for sure.

And even on Twitter, you'll see Everon posts of look at in 2021, the top pitchers and K-e-minus- swap ratio or swimming strike rate from, I don't know, June to September or whatever. but show me the list for 2020 or 2019 when it was a full season and look at how those pictures did at the end of the year and that's going to tell me if that list is worth something or not. And like it's not sexy when you put it on Twitter. You put, oh, here's what happened in 2019.

So I get it for Twitter. You just do it last year and then people can analyze and do what they want with it. But if you want to actually make those lists usable, you have to look at the same list a year before, two years ago, three years ago. And that's one of the things I do in the office is that I'll look at Vlad's one guys I missed on. So I'll go back and look at Vlad's numbers for 2020 and see what did I miss? What do you improve on? Was there something in 2020 in his numbers that could tell us that he was about to break out?

Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't. But if I find something, I'll test it and see if it works. Yeah, I think Vlad is such an interesting case too, because to me, me, there really wasn't anything that showed in the 2020 numbers that this was about to happen. And that's where we kind of get into the subjectivity of fantasy baseball, because all we really had to work on with Vlad was narrative-based, was that he was working out and he was getting in the best shape of his life, which we often hear about a lot of players. But it was different for him. You can tell he had a chip on his shoulder, and he wanted to be included in that conversation

with the best young players in the game, Ronald Kuna and Juan Soto. So we kept getting these videos of him working out and he's losing Wade and you know he's he's not eating unhealthy anymore and and really kind of put the work in in the offseason and obviously it helps when he changes his launch angle as as much as he did which is something that we can now quantify this season but there was really no indication in 2020 that that was going to happen so Vlad I think is kind of one of those unique picks Phil where it's kind of just a leap of faith right like prospect pedigree couple with the fact that we had all these offseason narratives at that told us yeah there's a real chance that he could break out. Yeah, yeah. And actually, I didn't find anything with LaL like you said. And he's the one,

he's actually the one guy last day where I thought about going against my system. It just, the narrative was there. The skills were there. And I had a feeling it was coming. But I had one share of Latin was my first best ball back in December. I guess it was 2020. I think it's his, I got him lower than his main ADP at that point. Because he was moving up when people saw he was working out. So it's actually what I love about fantasy baseball is I don't have to have a specific player to win. You can win.

There's 23 roster spots. There's 26 weeks. You can win a league without, I won the overall and I won a bunch of leagues. I had basically no Vlad in my big leagues, had no Tony. I had none of the big, I had no Sal Perez. Like the fantasy MVP's, I didn't have any of them. I still managed to win. And so there's so many ways to win, I'd say just, it's okay if you mess out on player.

It's not the end of the world. There's plenty of ways to win. Yeah, no, I think that's a perfect point, too. And for anyone who's listening or watching that, who doesn't play in the NFBC, even if you play in a home league, and I'm not trying to disparage that. Look, I play in a bunch of home leagues as well. That's the main point, Phil, is that there are plenty of different ways to win. You don't need to have Vlad.

Of course, it would be fun to have Vlad on your team and Otani. I had Otani in my main. I didn't win that league because I did a lot of things wrong. I think it's a good point that there's not just one way to win. There are multiple different ways to do this. I kind of want to wrap up this conversation on the system. Is there anything that you could reveal within the system? You mentioned pitch mix changes and velocity that you look at for starting pitchers.

Are there any other main stats that you're looking at maybe when it comes to pitchers or hitters? You know, Sierra, swinging strike rate, maybe batted ball data for hitters? In 2020, I changed my system. I started with an average three sets of projections in 2020 with the short season. I, sorry, in 2021 last year, because I didn't, I wasn't sure what, how did the projections would handle the short season. So I decided to just do everything from scratch my own projections. So for those, I use Sierra, I use swinging strike grade. I use K-man and swat ratio for hitters, just all the stack-ass stuff, watts, strikeouts, all the basic stuff.

And then, and the next part is where I tried the creative things with, like I said, the pitch mix, the fastball Velo. I'll look at lineups, but sometimes projections, sometimes assume a guy who's going to hit second is going to stay there all year, but it's not necessarily true. So just a couple of things like that. But it's nothing, a lot of the ideas I got over from podcasts. So it's mainly about just quantifying things rather than any. There might be like I might have 40 things I look at. There's probably four or five that might surprise you. Everything else is just about knowing how.

much everything is worth. Like is 0.5 miles an hour and fastball be a little worth. Um, how do you compare that with like a using your slider 10% more? So it's just putting that together. That's that's the hard part. That's where it's, um, I came up with formulas. Some people have been playing for 10, 15 years just know they don't need a formula. They just know. Um, so it's different ways to doing things. Yeah. No, and I think that's a good point. It's the more you play, the more you realize what actually matters and what doesn't. I think you just got to add one more, one more category there this year, Phil, and it's that, that breakout category, that Vlad category, the one that you can't quantify. It's just like, do you have a feeling?

Put a check in the box and see what happens there. The last thing I'll ask you about this is, do you think it's possible to be a successful high-stakes player without having a system, without having an Excel sheet, or maybe, obviously, you know, we're all looking at projections and things, but I'd be lying if I said that I was incredibly Excel savvy. I know how to use my, Excel and I you know I I dove more into SGP, standings, game points and draft software in recent years, but I am still learning. That is for sure.

Do you think you can be successful maybe without having a system like this? Yeah, for sure. And I think the biggest mistake you can make is try to do what I'm doing if those aren't your skills. There's like, if you're not, I've been using Excel since I was probably, no, eight or nine years old. So I know the ins and outs. I'm pretty familiar with formulas.

I've been building this for four years. So I know what matters, what mistakes not to make. Because I made plenty of mistakes in my first in 2019 when I put this together. And that team we had in the same league, I kind of got lucky because some of my other teams weren't great. So I've learned a lot doing this. But if you try to copy me and you're going to make more mistakes, then it'll help you out. what I'd say is stick to what you're good at. If you're not going to make making projections, use ATC,

use average three sets of projections, use that as their starting point, and then figure out where it can be projections. That's playing time. So if you read the news, if you read what coaches say, you can adjust playing time annually. If you've watched all the Blue Jays games last year, I have a feeling about Ryu and you read that he was missing his family, so he could explain why he wasn't as good in the second half,

then you can bump him up if you truly believe in that. You can look at pitch mix manually. I mean, I have a formula, but someone who goes through one pitcher at a time, it's probably can do a better job than my formula. It's just mine's quicker. So you just have to put the time where it's worth it. And it's definitely possible.

I mean, a lot of top players aren't as Excel savvy as I am, and there's different ways to win. That's a great thing. Yeah, that's exactly right. And Phil, look, I know you probably, you're not looking for cash this time of year. Obviously, you're coming off a big season. But if you ever are, I'll throw you a couple bucks.

You can teach me a little bit about Excel, specifically about being able to look up pitch mix changes quickly. I mean, that would be a lifesaver because it is, it's pretty tough to go pitcher by pitcher. Let's take a closer look at the winning main event team that you drafted here. It was the third overall pick. And in the first round, you got Jacob de Grom. And I actually saw you started your,

or it's not your first draft, but it's your first, I guess, bigger money draft, a $1,000 draft Champions League, which is a 15 team draft and hold. There's no waivers. There's no trades. All you do throughout the course of the season is set your lineup. You started one draft just recently. You had a fourth overall pick and you went with Garrett, Garrett Cole. I look back at the draft we did together back in 2019.

You had the ninth overall pick. Who did you take? Jacob de Grom. So is it safe to say that you are a proponent of drafting ACEs early? Before we get to that, we can make my pick live because I'm on the clock right now in the third round of that draft. Oh, all right, so this is,

I don't know that this has happened on another podcast, but I'm just going to go ahead and say that it hasn't. We're making history here on fantasy baseball today. Phil is going to make a pick live on the air. Who do you have so far?

This is just the team with Gary Cole. I got Cole in the first round and Josh Hater in the second round. And before people think I'm crazy. Josh Hater in the second round. Wow. This is the $1,000 BC, and that's where it starts to look like a main event. There were three, four, five, six pitchers, I guess five and a half, mainly five, because

so tiny, it doesn't really count. Five pitches in the first 13 picks, and then Hendrix went before me in the second round. So I was there at pick 27, and it's mainly format-based. I don't think I'd do this in a main event, but in ADC, you can't pick up any. any closers during the season. So it's whoever you draft that you have. I just feel more comfortable with the top guys. Like everyone agrees that Hendricks and a hitter are the top of two closers.

Yeah. But I can make an argument for a guy in the fifth round over a hitter in the second round. Like Eloy was early third last year. So what's not to tell us he can match, I don't know, you're Don Alvarez or Aaron Judge's production. Right. So I just think the gap is bigger between the closers than it is with hitters and starters. So that's why I went Hayter in the second round.

And Iglesis actually went in the early third. So I'm not the only one doing this in this draft. And I sort of thought that was coming. And if I didn't draft Hater, he would be gone. So I took him there. So now I'm going to go hit her in third round. and the two guys I'm hesiting between are Teasca Hernandez or Trevor Story?

Ooh, all right, so I know you had Teasca Hernandez on your main event team last year. I don't know if maybe it's a little, some home cooking. I don't know if you're a Blue Jays fan, but he was amazing. He was awesome last year. The Blue Jays lineup,

even without Marcus Semyon's probably still going to be really good. A lot of power. I think some speed, you know, maybe 10 to 15 steals for Teasker. Trevor Story, we don't know where he's going to play yet, almost certainly going to see that batting average drop outside of course field. But regardless, I think you still should be a 2020 bet.

Yeah, yeah. And I've got them actually right next to each other. The Oscar is 17.21 and Trevor's door is 17.16. So it's really hard to be closer than this in my rankings. I've got both them hitting 30 home runs. Basically the average I have about the same, Trevor Storer being around 260. and that's kind of what I see for the Oscar.

I think that Babb is going to come down a little bit. And playing at Rogers Stadium is going to be a little tougher for him than being in the need. And I mean, it's basically, I think, more stolen bases for Story and more homeowners for the Oscar. And the counting sets depend on where Story ends up. So I'm really going back and forth here. When I say I'm making the pick live, I'm really hesitant. It's not a fake. These aren't theatrics, everyone.

I mean, he's legitimately weighing the pros and cons of each player right now live on the air. So, look, you don't have to. There's also Whitmerfield, but I think I prefer the other two over him, although he's in consideration, too, with the multi-position. I think I'm going to go Trevor's story, actually. The main reason, I think he's the more balanced hitter. And I think getting extra stone bases, and power

probably gives me more options down the road. If I go to the Oscar, I feel I'll probably have to get more speed in the fourth or fifth. Yeah, you're right about that. But before you do that, shortstop is pretty deep this year, so I want to point that out. Well, so is outfield, so. Ooh, is it, though? I don't know.

I feel like the top tier of outfield talent kind of falls off quickly, but... Yeah, well, I guess I'm not... I'm actually not that we're about positions that early. maybe third base or first base, I'd give a little bump, but usually early in the draft, I think I'd just go with the stats I'd like better, and then I'll figure out the positions later. All right. So is that the pick? Is Trevor Story the pick? Yeah, I'm going to pick it right now. Trevor's story, it is. All right, so you heard it here live on the air, starts off his first $1,000 DC of the offseason with Garrett Cole,

Josh Hater, and then Trevor Story there in the third round. Let's get back to this team that you drafted this past season. event winning team. I mentioned that you took Jacob de Grom first in this draft, third overall, and then you took Machado and Bo Bichette in the second and third. Machado was fine. Bichette was amazing. And then you took two closers in Ryssela Iglesias in the fourth, Trevor Rosenthal in the fifth, and you got a zero.

You got a zero from your fifth round pick, and you still manage to take this down. So I think that's another really good point for people that, you know, even if you lose you know, a top five-round pick, you could still make it up. You know, like, it's not, it sucks, of course, but it's not, it's not the end-all be-all. Yeah, it would have been a lot easier if Rosenthal had pitched because I spent four months chasing saves and I spent a lot of my fat money on that and probably an hour and a half every Sunday looking at box scores and trying to figure out who's next in line and things like that.

And actually, that one was really frustrating because in my rankings, I had Ryan Presley right ahead of Trevor Rosenthal. And if I had Presley, it would have been a lot easier. Right, right. And the reason I took Rosenthal is because Presley wasn't pitching in spring training. He was pitching in backfields. And they were saying, oh, he's just, he's fine. There's no issues.

But it seemed fishy when you have two guys pretty close. I felt I'd go with Rosenthal who would just, he didn't pitch early in spring. And then he pitched a couple of innings right before this draft. So, okay, Rosenthal was healthy. he's, Oakland actually spent money on players so he's going to be their guy but then Rosenthal gets hurt

and Presley's pitching in spring like a couple of days later. So that was frustrating. It probably would have haunted me for a while if I didn't end up winning in the main event because I know with Presley it probably would have been done a lot earlier than the last week of the season.

Yeah. And I'll point it out in a little bit when we go through some of the bigger waiver wire ads that you made throughout the season but you did a great job of kind of grinding out the closer position and saves. So we'll get to that. But let's just move on here to Oscar Hernandez.

You took in the sixth round last year. And are you actually a Blue Jays fan? I probably should ask you this beforehand. Yes and no. I'm so addicted to my fantasy team. So I'll just cheer for my players. And last year, I had a lot of Robbie Ray and Stephen Matt. So I watched more Jays than I usually do.

If they're in the playoffs, I'll cheer for the Jays for sure. But during the season, and I don't watch them. I watch my players more, more than I watched the Jays. Yeah, so were you confident into Asker Hernandez because of the Blue Jays lineup as good as it looked on paper, or was it just his skill set that you really liked

or maybe a combination of both? Yeah, it was the skill set. I was actually in on him in 2020. So what he did in 2020, he was better than I expected, but it was somewhat a confirmation of what I expected. And then when people were drafting in 2020, for a lot of people, the 2020 season came out of nowhere.

For me, it was sort of better than I expected, but I knew it was there. So when I could get him in the sixth round for a guy like the previous year, and he just backed up what I sort of thought he could do, the big power and speed in the sixth round. And for this pick in the third round, I'm looking for a few more steals. But in the sixth round, getting probably 10 to 12 stolen bases with 30, 35 home run. was a no-brainer, and then the average was a nice surprise. So he worked that great. Yeah, I'm actually in a $150 D.C. right now,

and I had pick eight, and I started Vlad, Starling Marte, and then to Oscar Hernandez. Oh, nice. Yeah, it's nice. Kind of hit a little bit of everything, power, speed, batting average. Pitching staff. Yeah, I mean, that's the next question, right? Kevin Gosman, like, lasted longer than I thought.

So I took Lindor in the fourth, and then I got Gosman, Morton, Lopez is my top three starters, and I got Will Smith as my first closer. That's pretty good, yeah. I think it's all right. And I think, you know, I took, well, we won't talk about the pictures that I got later on because I'm a little upset about it, but it's perfectly fine. I'll just read you those first eight picks and we'll leave it there.

Round seven through 10 for you. You took Charlie Morton, who I just mentioned, Kevin Gosman, which has mentioned, Jeff McNeil and Pablo Lopez. Wow, look at that. I didn't even plan this. Through 10 rounds, you had four starting pitchers, you had two closers, and four hitters. Were you more aggressive on pitching last season coming off the shortened season to have that much? You know, four starting pitchers, two closers, only four hitters for your first 10 rounds.

I always draft pitching early. In this case, I think I'm out of the short season. And we'll talk about with my later picks. I think there were a lot of hitters that were mispriced. Guy got Yuleiguriel in the 21st round. I got in a bunch of drats. Back 2020 season, but that was mainly because of Lobabip, and you can get guaranteed playing time in the middle,

the Astros line up in the 21st round. It seemed like a no-brainer. So the bunch of guys like that, like him, like Cesar Hernandez, Robbie Grossman hitting leadoff, getting you four categories in the 20th round. There were just a lot of hitters like that that I liked late. So because of that, I felt more comfortable just pushing. pitching a little bit because I knew I could get hitters that I thought could be going in the 10th, 12th round,

but I could get them in rounds 15 to 20, 22. And Joey Votto's another one had a bunch of shares of. Same reason, guaranteed playing time and coming off is so season. So, yeah, I pushed up pitching a little bit more. And in this draft, I actually got more than I planned to. But Morton, Gosman and Lopez were three guys I like, and I got them all after ADP. For some reason, the guys I like were slipping. So it just made sense to grab them.

And think in the main event, you can never have enough pitching. So when it out, I grabbed the pitcher and then I'll deal with the hitters later. Yeah. And you managed to avoid Zach Plessack, which, you know, I should have listened to you, Phil, because I heard you on Rob D. Pietro's podcast before the season. Talk about how low you were on Zagpliaseg. I think you had him ranked outside the top 50 starting pitchers. For some reason, I still drafted him.

Draft him in the main event. He was, I think, our SP3 or SP4. He just lasted so late, I think it was like the eighth round. But you got to realize when that many smart people around you are not drafting a player, it's probably for good reason. So, yeah, Zach, Plessak, never again. I just don't know. It makes so much sense when you break it down, talking about Uli Gurriel, round 21, right?

Hitting in the middle of the Astros lineup, he's going to play every day. And a few other hitters that you got specifically in this draft, who you could say something similar about it. I mean, Brian Reynolds was coming off an underwhelming 2020, but a lot of hitters were, and it doesn't make them bad players. It's just, it's a shortened season, so how much stock do you actually put into that? You got him in round 18, and then you get Chris Taylor in round 19, who is in a great lineup.

Maybe we have some questions about, is he going to play every single day, but he's a super utility guy. And again, I mean, these are just perfect examples of, you know, you waited on these guys, and each one of them was undervalued. Yeah, and none of them did. Like Reynolds was a nice surprise. Uly sort of slowed down later in the year, but like Reynolds did what he did in 2019.

It's just in 2020, I think he had like a 230 bad rip or something. Like, you know that's not going to stick for a full season. So I think that's kind of where my system helped me, just looking at the right numbers and trust again, not worrying about, like, I don't even know what a guy's batting average was last year. I just look at my metrics and put it together. And if it tells me that he should have a 260 average, and for me, that's the number.

It's not if he had a 220 average, because that a low back, if that doesn't make sense. And I just don't pay attention to it. So that's probably where it helps me that I don't follow the, look at the basic stats as much as other people. It is hard to draft a hitter when you see it, I don't know, under 200 the previous year.

It's just mentally there, you think. Or if he gave up. I don't know, two home runs per nine. It's there in the back of your mind. But when you've seen the numbers, and you know a lot of that is bad luck, it makes it easier to draft them. Well, somebody who might have put a,

given up two home runs per nine in the past, was Robbie Ray. And that's who you drafted in around 17. And you had a bunch of these league-winning, starting pitchers. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you had a lot of these pitchers across different leagues,

and that's how you wound up being as successful as you were last year. Robbie Ray in round 17, Logan Webb in round 22, Carlos Rodan in round 25, coupled with the fact that you had Jacob deGrom early, you had Charlie Morton, you had Pablo Lopez, who for the most part, those three pitchers, look, we know DeGrom was amazing and then obviously got hurt,

but you were able to pick up the slack because all three of these starting pitchers were amazing for you last year. So how did you come to this conclusion? How did you draft guys like Ray Webb and Rodon? Ray was just like he had it off 2020, but the strikeouts were still there. And if he could just go back to walking, I don't know,

four, four and a half guys per nine, then looking at his career stats. He's clear like a four, four point two ERA guy. He's not whatever we saw in 2020, six point, six point 62. So the walk for the issue in 2020, he had the J's offense behind him. So my thinking was if he can just be a four, four point two ERA guy with those strikeouts, with that offense,

going to get strikeouts, I'm going to get wins, and the ratios I'm hoping are going to be okay. But if he can fix the walks, he's got sliding upside because in three, four years ago, he was a close to three ERA guy, even in, yeah, 2017, 2.89 ERA. So if he can fix the walks and going back to being that guy, there's huge upside. But I was thinking his draft cost just for the wins and the strikeouts, it made sense. It felt like a high floor, high upside guys. And then Webb, I honestly don't know. It's just my system, put him up there, and I got him on a bunch of teams, trusted what my assistant said.

Rodan was kind of funny one because I wasn't on him at all. And then I had to stop before my last main, all the hype around Dylan Cs, with Ethan Katz being the new pitching coach. And Dylan Cs is his new. his new project. But if Ethan Katz is that good, he's not just going to focus on one guy. And I just said,

why not Rodon? He's a young pitcher. He's got good stuff. 25th round. Yeah. I mean, if it doesn't work out after the two weeks, I'll drop him.

No big deal. And that one worked out pretty well. Yeah, no. And that's, again, it's a great point because, yes, you have the system and that's how you got Logan Webb, but then you're also,

you're looking at outside factors, right? and you're deducing why can't Carl Svodon be a breakout candidate if someone like Dylan ceases. So again, it's just, it's a credit to you that you know, you're still making some gut calls and you're still following things outside of just what the numbers are telling you to do here. We're going to take a quick break, but when we return, the draft isn't everything. You have to be a savvy in-season manager as well. We'll talk about the here on fantasy baseball today. All right, so we went through the draft and let's just talk about some things that you're paying attention to in-season.

We'll talk a little bit about FAB as well, but what are you keeping track of? Are you just looking at your accumulative statistics week, you know, you're a month in? Or are you looking at what your team is doing every single week and then maybe kind of making your FAB ads, your waiver wire ads, based on what your team just did that week? No, I don't pay attention to weekly stats. I think they're just too much volatility. And usually I, I mean, I'm addicted to live scoring and standings. look at it every day. And if I'm at the top main event, I'll look at it 20 times the night.

As you should. But I know some people say they don't even look at the live scoring. Don't look at the standings. I can't do that. I'm addicted to it. But I usually won't let it impact my decisions until at least June. I'll look in June if I'm way below. In my mind, I drafted a balance team.

So why adjust so quickly into the season? If in June I see I'm way behind in power, then I'll start adjusting my fab. It's still looking for more power. And there's still four months to do it. So until then I just look for value, look for the best pickups I can find, and then try to adjust just my team from there.

All right, well, let's talk about pickups and fab in general. Obviously, a huge, huge part of the game that is fantasy baseball. The draft is very important, but again, it's not everything. And over at the NFBC, you start with a $1,000, Fab budget, some people might play with $100. It's the same thing regardless. You just tack on an extra zero there on the end. And what's your general approach when it comes to FAB?

I noticed reading through these articles over at Sports Illustrated, the biggest spend you had this past season was Kendall Graven for $94, and that was heading into Week 11. From what I saw, maybe I missed one or two. But is that how you're typically attacking Fab, staying under that 10% threshold? Yeah, it is. usually I like the $4,200 range.

Usually if you're paying $200,300, you're paying for the hype of the new prospect. And I'll do it at times. If I save my money and in July, your Donovarez comes up like he did. What is it two years ago? I got him in one league because I had money left. But usually I just stick to those bids. last year I went up to win on some other teams paid up for Cesar Hernandez and Robbie Grossman, maybe 120. But I'll really go higher than that.

Like I said, in June or July, if I have more money left, then I'll pay up. But I feel if I pay too much early in May, then I'll miss other opportunities that could come up if someone makes a backdrop. So you should just save my money and go. I like streaming. So I'll add weekly hitters with good matchups, things like that. But I usually try to spread the money around, take random shots. And some work out, some don't. Danny Santana was one of the ones that didn't work out last.

I think I got him on every team just because I thought, ah, why not? But, yeah, I just spread the money around, basically. You mentioned that you like streaming. And that's mostly for hitters, not pitchers, because it seems like in a 15-team league, If you're adding pitchers to actually play and put in your lineup, that's pretty dangerous. Yeah, if you stream pitchers, it's because something went wrong.

I've done it on some teams, and that's kind of what happened in 2021 when I thought, I've got to get more pitchers early because just the years before, I just remembered, man, like all my good teams are the ones where I have the same four or five pitchers I can put in my lineup every week. If you're streaming one or two spot, if there's no starters who like, you just grab a Chad Green or Devin William or someone like that, then that's fine. But if you're looking for two, three, four pitchers every week,

it's just a disaster. So, yeah, I'd rather stream hitters than pitchers. Two words, Phil. Austin Gomber. I know you remember it from this past season. People picked up Austin Gomber for a two-star week. And I'm looking at it right here. It was the end of April.

He was facing the Giants and the Diamondbacks. Now, we knew the Diamondbacks were bad. We didn't know at the time that the Giants were as good as they turned out to be. Both starts were on the road. He was away from course field. The first start that week, one in two thirds, seven hits, nine earned runs, four walks for Austin Gomber. And I picked him up in a spot or two. I didn't use them in the main, thankfully.

But yeah, it's just, that is one that sticks out where I'm just like, we need to rethink two-star pitchers because I think the days of kind of picking these guys up and streaming them. They're gone. I don't think that you could probably pull it off in a 12-team league. It's much easier, but in a 15-teamer, man, it is tough. So I would say maybe stay away

from the Austin government. He actually turned out to be pretty good after that, but yeah, that was just an awful start. A few pitchers that you added along the way that really helped you out on this team, which I noticed, Alex Wood, Ranger Suarez, and then three would-be closers. Kyle Finnegan, Dylan, Floro, Alex Colome.

So two questions here. Do you hoard your money for around the, trade deadline because you know every year there's going to be things that happen and and closers are going to emerge. And how did you know to hold on to Ranger Suarez? Because once he was removed from the closers role, it's like you didn't really know what was going to happen next. So how did you do that?

So first for the closers, in middle June, I was, or even early June, I was top five in the main event. and I was probably bottom 100 out of, I think it was 600 last year, for saves. So I knew if I can find saves, I have a good chance at winning it. And I know the best time to find saves is the trade deadline. So, yes, I did say more morning that night I usually do for that trade deadline. I spent hours and hours looking at trade rumors, figuring out which guys I can pick up the week before, as seeing who's next deadline, and that's where Kyle Finnegan came up.

I actually picked him up for $2 before the trade deadline with my friend Rob DiPietro. We're the only two across all NFBC leagues that picked them up that week, which is kind of funny. And I don't know if I win the main event with that Carl Finnegan. And if I don't pick him up a week early, I don't know if I have the money to spend. Next week he went for 50, 60, I think, in most. most league. So if I don't make that pickup, I don't think I can afford the 60 bucks after the trade deadline. So that's probably my favorite pick of the year, actually. Sorry, what's the, oh yeah, Ranger Suarez. That actually came down to Jacob de Grom or Ranger

Suarez. And I was one of the first people who dropped Jacob de Grom and Suarez with the other option. The way I saw it was I had good pitching. I didn't need to be bold. I just needed the guy that I can put in there. And my pitching was pretty solid at that point. So I could afford the two, three weeks that it would take Suarez to warm up and start going five plus innings. But the grandma had no idea if he'd pitch, if he'd pitch. So I sort of went the safe route.

Swaros was, of course, a lot better than I expected. But I just needed a backup guy that I knew could get me a four ERA instead of having to stream a guy in Austin Gomber type who could blow up any time and mess up my ratio. So I just needed a safe pitcher. And that's why I kept Suarez instead of the Grom. A lot of people thought I was crazy at the time. I think I tweeted out when I dropped Jacob the Grom.

I don't think a lot of people would have made that call. And Suarez was my pitching was good. So I don't know if he was a difference maker, but it definitely helped that team. The hitters, I'll quickly mention here who you added, who really kind of helped propel you. Joey Votto, you picked him up when he got hurt, you waited on him, he came back.

He was obviously amazing. I think it was, what, seven or eight games where he homered in a row. He was awesome. I had him in a few other leagues, and yeah, reap the benefits as well. And we talked about him a lot in this podcast last year. It was absolutely crazy what he went out and did.

Dalton Varsho, another name there. He's a polarizing player for me this upcoming season. Frank Schwindel and Lane Thomas, two of my favorites, man. Frankie, two hits, as we like to call him here on the podcast. the guy was awesome down the stretch. And then Lane Thomas, who I actually do like quite a bit this season as well. I think he's going to lead off for the nationals, at least to start the season.

We'll see if he can hold on to that. But if he does, a little bit of power, a little bit of speed. I do like Lane Thomas quite a bit myself. Dalton Varshal, I'll just quickly ask you about him. ADP right now is like in the sixth round of these 15 team leagues. Are you willing to pay that price tag? Probably not. In a main event where I'm looking for steals if I find myself in a position

or I'm behind and stolen base and I have to do something about it, then I'll consider it. It seems a little early. We'll see how it might change in spring training when we see how the playing time shakes out. But if he's playing center field four times a week and catching two times a week and hitting in the top of the lineup, he can get the 600 plate appearances and not a lot of catchers can do that. So the upside is there. But he's not as.

skilled as the other top catchers. So you're getting the stolen base they're not getting from anyone else. But if he struggles, are the Diamondbacks going to put Cattle Marte back in center field and put Farrow just as a backup catcher? That's possible. And that's not going to happen with JTR or Will Smith or the other catchers going a little bit before him. So for now, no. But in spring, it might change if I'm convinced that he can get to.

the 550 or 600 played appearances. Yeah, I think that's very well said. And I won't argue the upside because you're right. If he's playing in the outfield and he's playing a little bit of catcher, his playing time has the ability to be second or third best among catcher eligible players at fantasy. I think Salvador Perez is kind of in a league of his own right now because he just DH is so much. He played 161 games last year, which is absurd. And then J.T. Romuto, with the DH coming to the National League,

Maybe he doesn't get to like 160 like Salvi did, but I would bet on him playing at least 140 games, probably more than that for Riyamuto this upcoming season. The downside for Varsho, I think, is that, you know, if he really struggles, he could be back in the minors. He still has a few options left, and they have some prospects come in. They have Alec Thomas.

So I like the player. I think he's interesting. Don't really love the price tag right now for Dalton Varsho. Let's wrap up with a few 2022 questions, a little bit of strategy, a little bit of, you know, this guy or this guy. We don't have to spend too much time on each one of these, but I mentioned he took Gary Cole,

fourth overall in this draft that you're doing right now. I assume that you have as your SP1 over Corbyn Burns. Yeah, I do. And for me, it's not even close. I know Burns was really good last year. He was good in 2020, but he doesn't have the same track record as Gary Cole. He's probably going to have to face a DH this year.

also last year or two years ago he faced a bunch of AL central teams last year his interleague schedule against the AL Central this year it's the AL East so it's only four or five games but facing the the Yankees the Red Sox the Js is it the same as facing the tigers and the twins and the white socks were pretty good but so I think that's going to make a bit of a difference and I know there's a lot of talk about Cole and the And the sticky stuff, but his numbers from June 16th until September 1st, which was right before the hamstring injury, he had 3.19 ER8, 3.0AX-FIP, 12.5K per 9, 2.6 walks per 9, 1.2 home runs per 9. So that's pretty much right in line with everything he's done the last three years. So I assume over the full off season, the hamstring's fine.

He's been healthy for a while. So any MLB might even have a new ball with with sticky stuff on it. So he might even have, he could have the upside of going back to the pitcher. He was like a year or two ago. He's just even more dominant. So for me, he's the clear number one. All right. Phil is sticking with Garrett Cole there.

And a true story. We were DM in earlier today on Twitter. And he says, oh, I listen to the podcast. I have some stuff on Garrett Cole. We talked about Garrett Cole, obviously. yesterday's podcast. So Phil's here to clear the air when it comes to Garrett Cole as the SP1.

Speak of one, number one. The first overall pick. What do you think about this talk? There's been a lot that Jose Ramirez should be in contention for the first overall pick because of third base scarcity. Obviously, he's also a really, really good player. It doesn't have the batting average ceiling

as someone like a Fernando Tatis or a Trey Turner. But, you know, very likely to go 30 plus homers, 20, even 25 steals at a round. really scarce third base position. What do you think about him going first overall? I've got him third or fourth. I think Tatis and Turner on another level. And then I like probably Cole at three. But in a league where pitching doesn't get pushed up as much in the NFVC, I can see J. Ram at three. I know this position scarcely, but the gap between first rounders is bigger than it is for second, third, fourth, fifth rounders and so on. Like the gap gets smaller as you move

later in the draft. So I'm not going to move up J-RAM two spots when I can probably makes more sense to move up a third basement in 10th round by half a round than it does moving up Ramirez above two guys that I think are way above

him in terms of skills. All right, let's move closer further into the first round. And I'll just give you this guy or this guy. And we have Bryce Harper and Kyle Tucker who are being drafted anywhere from like picks eight to 10 right now. Who would you rather have between those two? I like Harper. I don't fully trust the

power with Tucker. And first round seems too early for a guy that was hitting 6th for most the year last year and even seven at times. And Harper is one of those strange guys that he's been he's been a first and second rounder for a long time. But, and he's probably going to give you late for first or early second round value, but there's always that MVP season, the great Bryce Harper season that you never know it could always be there and you could always

out of nowhere start to steal 20, 25 base if he feels like it. So it doesn't have quite the speed, but he seems to have the ability to the repatriatures the experience that if he wants to, he could. Yeah, look, he could still

get one of these peak batting average seasons as well. I mean, he hit 309 last year and I know most projection systems won't have them for a 300 batting average, but it's within his range of outcomes. We've seen some really massive spike batting average seasons out of Bryce Harper in the past. How about if you're all the way at the back end of the first round of a 15 team league,

you got some decisions to make because we got a lot of outfielers going in this range with Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Luis Robert, and then if you want to throw Ronald Acuna in that mix, but with Acuna, obviously we have the injury concerns. Same thing with Trout, he's getting up there in age, coming off the calf injury, doesn't really run much anymore, bets coming off the hip injury.

And then you kind of have this young gun in Luis Robert, who looks like he's ready to take that next step, but hasn't really been able to stay healthy himself either. So what would you do there in the back end? I go Luis Robert. He's on the way up, and he's probably the one where I trust the health the most. I know who was hurt last year, but he came back a lot quicker than everyone expected.

And he was, I just think, and, man, I play NFBC, so we're stolen bases, our president. premium and you have to get stolen bases. So I'll take the upside and speed with Robert. I think bats could stop stealing and do what Mike Trout did and just completely stop stealing because he doesn't have to and the Dodgers want to keep him healthy. And if Robert is healthy, he's going to play 155, which I don't think is going to happen with bats and trout.

He's been hurt for a while, so I don't trust the health either. And I'll just throw this out there. I don't actually believe the White Sox lineup will be as good as the Blue Jays lineup last year, but if I'm looking for that team to kind of ascend and maybe take that next step as a collective lineup, I think the White Sox could be really, really good this year. So Luis Robert, whether he's at the top, if he's in the middle, you mentioned Eloy Jimenez,

who's going in the fifth round. I still think Jose Ibrayu perennially undervalue just because he's getting old, but he just does what he does. I like the White Sox quite a bit there in terms of lineups this season. Starling Marte versus Whitmerfield. I actually had this exact dilemma myself

in the middle of the second round of that draft. that I mentioned. And I went with Stalling Marte, and I think it's a really interesting comp because Witt is safer. He's managed to stay healthy. The guy is an Iron Man. He does not miss games.

Stalling Marte is the complete opposite. You could basically guarantee he's going to have one I L. Sten per season. But on a per game basis, I think that he's, I don't think. I know that he's better than Whitmerfield.

So who would you take there, Witt versus Stalling Marte? I would have gone to say for out with Witt. But that's, If I'm doing $150 D.C. Then I consider Starling Marte. But if you do go that route, count for 45 to 50 stolen bases for Stalling Marte. And if he gets that, then you've got shot in overall because that's where his value is going to be.

If you're only counting on 25, 30, you can draft a bunch of other stolen bases, then you could end up just having too much. And you're sort of wasting his upside. So if I'm going that route, then I'm playing for the full upside with Marte. But in a main, I'd go with the safe, probably with getting $1,250 more plate appearances dead than Sowing Marte. So I'd go that route. All right, Buck. Let's let let Starling Marte run a little bit this year. I know in the past, the Orioles didn't run much.

They really didn't have any fast guys. So I think it's probably more so of the rosters that Buck Showalter had back in the day there. Let's see at the 2-3 turn, we have some starting pitchers going Julio Arias versus Sandy Alcantra. This is an interesting one that we've actually talked about on this podcast as well. Sandy is getting pushed up so far, and I get it because I think that there's this interesting combo of innings.

He gives you volume, and I think that there's more strikeout upside base on the swinging strike rate that he showed last year. So I don't like that he's being pushed up this far, but I do like Sandy quite a bit. What do you think, Sandy versus Arias? I probably need Arias. But my system hates Alcantara. But it didn't like Burns last year either.

So, and I can see something similar. He made a change. And he was just, he was in A's for the last two months. So it's definitely possible that it's missing something. And I wouldn't even be surprised he was a top five pitcher. But I'm not going to have any shares. But he's not a pick. I can criticize that much because he could be that guy.

The problem I have with him is that guy that was striking out eight batters per nine isn't that far away. And he's on the Marlins. So there's nothing guaranteed. I don't like that. The price seems to have all the upside baked in. There's no floor with strikeouts. There's no floor with wins. You're just hoping that what you saw from the last month and a half or two months sticks for full.

year, which is possible, but I don't like paying for it. Between the two, the skills kind of seem similar. I just like the extra four or five wins that are you as likely to get just because he's on the Dodgers. Switch to teams and I like Alcantara on the Dodgers bed and I like Ryas on the Marlins. Yeah, no, I think that's definitely fair. Last one I'll ask you about here, the middle of the third round, let's say you either take two hitters early on or you know, you want to get a second starting pitcher early in your draft. I think this is, a lot of people are targeting this range for pitcher, and it's Aranola versus Lucas Gileto.

I think they're both really talented last year, basically a full season of unluckiness for Aaron Nola versus Lucas Gilito, who was still very good, hasn't managed to pitch more than 180 in any season yet. He's on a good team. Obviously, this stuff is there. What do you think, Nola versus Gileo? I'd go Nola.

As you said, it seems, it looks like a full season to be unlucky. I don't know if you can be unlucky for that long, But I do believe that when you have a full offseason to go back and look at what happened, it's an easy fix. So I like him better for this year than I would have liked him for September last year because I think in the off season you can fix things. G. Alito, it seems like the strikeouts were all gone after the sticky stuff thing. So what was he like? I think nine strikeouts per nine in the second half. it's a big downgrade from the 12 strikeouts per nine guy that he was a year ago.

So I'm a bit worried about Gielu, and I had a lot of them last year, and it was just a lot of inconsistencies, and I'm worried about him for this year. So I'd go Nola and then hope that he fixes whatever was wrong last year. All right, Phil, this was a lot of fun. Last question, I swear, last question. How will you approach 2022? I mean, there's obviously a target on your back now.

you take down as many things as you did last season. And you know that everyone is dissecting your teams. There are literally articles being written that are dissecting not only your draft, but everything that you did within the season. So everyone knows they're going to be looking for the next Robbie Ray, the next Carlos Rodon, this high strikeout upside pitcher later on in drafts or maybe veteran hitters who are being undervalued. What do you do?

How do you handle this? And we're talking beforehand. Maybe you do a few drafts where you take play. that you don't want to throw people off? I mean, you got enough money to kind of mess around with it now. So I would do it. What are you going to do? Well, this thing kind of sucks,

because I like being on Twitter and debating over parties. I like going on podcast and saying the guys, I like giving away all my strategies and no one caring. That was fun. Now, if I say I like a player, I feel his ADP is going to move up a little bit. Not that I do it if someone else did, but people are telling me that they're paying attention to what I'm doing.

So I have to be more careful what I say. I won't do any drafts where I draft players I don't like. But in the first DC I did, the 150 DC I did a month ago, I pay more attention to ADP. So I won't draft guys I don't like. But if there's a guy I'm sort of neutral about it and he's there around after ADP, I'll take him. I won't do that for a main.

In a main, I might have a list of 100 players that I'm really considering. In an early DC, that list might be at 250. So I won't draft guys I don't like, but I'll play the ADP game more and still put a good team together, but not a main event team where I'll reach for my guys that the guys that I really like. All right, man. Well, welcome to the club. You know, people can access my information whenever they want to. Not that people care. It's like, I haven't had enough success where people are like, hmm, who is Frank Stamphill drafting this year?

I'm going to take that guy. Like, no one cares yet. Who knows? Maybe I'll get to that point one day. But yeah, this is part of the blessing and the curse. People, you know, obviously want to hear what you have to say, but at the same time, you do have that target on your back. He is Phil D-D-S-D-S-O-M-T-S-O-T-S-E-S-E-S-A-U-S-U-S-T-S-E-S-U-L-T-S-E.

Phil, it was a fantastic season for you. Once again, congratulations, and I cannot thank you enough for joining me here today. Thanks for having me, Frank. It was great. Yeah. All right, so again, he is Phil. Make sure to follow him, and we're watching you, Phil. We're watching you. See what happens here.

the offseason for Phil. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball. Today will be back again tomorrow with Scott and Chris. Bye-bye.