Fantasy Baseball Today - The Keeper Show! Top-50 Keeper Rankings (1/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 4, 2022

Link to Scott's Top-50 Keeper Rankings- https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/fantasy-baseball-top-50-keepers-for-2022-based-on-2021-adp/ Keepers! What's the difference between a keeper league and dynasty league (3:00)? Let's start with the Top-10 keeper rankings for 2022 (9:00). Ohtani ahead of Acuña? Where does Wander Franco rank? Top-20 keepers (19:09): what's not to like about Sandy Alcantara? ... Top-30 keepers (25:50): Should Luis Robert be higher? ... Top-40 keepers (32:45): why is Chris Sale a good keeper at his age? ... Top-50 keepers (39:13): why is Daulton Varsho so interesting? ... Which players should you target late in your keeper leagues this year (50:10)? ... We wrap up with your keeper questions (55:40). Have a question? Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Center field. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. Do you play in a Keeper League? If so, you've come to the right place. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, January 4th. I am Frank Stamphill, and you're going to play. You know what they say about Scott White. Now that's a keeper. What's up, Scottie?

How you do? Yeah, it's interesting you lead with that because I was just thinking, observing my surroundings here on the camera. We have a bare Christmas tree behind me. Like, it's just bare. We got a bare corner of the desk here behind me. Like, there's very much,

it really, like, conjures images of, like, a going out of business sale, I feel like, behind me. That's where my mind goes. So, you know, I don't know that anybody looks at this background and think there's a keeper there. But maybe there is. Hey, look, when we first started doing this with the couch in the background, the people like the Scott White couch. So. They didn't, though.

Oh, come on. I did. That counts, right? They made fun of it. That counts for something. They did not like our hand-me-down furniture and categorized it as such. And they're accurate. It was, you know, they said it looks like a grandmother's.

uh basement i think it was it was a hand me down couch from my wife's grandmother so all right accurate accurate that that would be true and you do have a new microphone set up too so we've got a lot going on here scotty you got a pop filter hopefully i don't sound anywhere is hopefully when my pee sounds don't pop as much peter piper pick the peck of pickle peppers how does that make your ears feel was it breathy or was it nice and smooth smooth that's what we're going for i like it scotty i think i like it so far let's stick with it today is the keeper show what does that mean we're to talk all about keepers scott has an awesome article that's currently live on the site there are more so just rankings but we're going to talk about those the top 50 keeper rankings we're going to talk

a little bit keeper versus dynasty what are the differences in those formats players to target late in your Keeper leagues this year. I looked up a whole list of players that are currently injured that you might want to draft and hold on to for the following year. And then I did snag some questions from our Fantasy Baseball Today Facebook group. So if you are not

joined up there and you have a Facebook, then you should. So anytime that we interact with you guys, then you can join in on the discussion and have some fun. Scott, do you play in any Keeper Leagues yourself? Or is it just the Scott White Dynasty League? I play in a Keeper League.

league, one keeper league, it was my first keeper league, where you keep four players, basically, from year to year. And there are some additional rules that have been added and subtracted over time. I'm in several dynasty leagues. And, you know, sometimes it's not totally clear the distinction between a dynasty league and a keeper league. I feel like generally dynasty leagues are talking about turning over less of your roster from year to year.

and usually there's some kind of farm system element going on with the dynasty league. There can be contracts or no contracts, but I feel like you could have that in a keeper league too. So I don't know. I don't know that that's really the distinction there. But, you know, that's kind of how I see the distinction between dynasty leagues and keeper leagues. And so I tried to create this list. I've been doing it for a few years now, these top 50 keepers. that distinguishes itself from Motherless, basically.

It's kind of wonky, but I don't want just here are the best 50 players to keep straight up, because presuming it is a true Keeper League, everybody keeps, you know, just five or six players, there's a lot of roster turnover still. Your focus should still be in that scenario on the near term. So I feel like if I did a top 50 keepers, list for that format. Everybody kept on equal terms, only five or six keepers per team. It basically looked like my redraft rankings, right?

Like, I don't think there'd be a huge difference between those two. I do have separate dynasty rankings where I put a heavy emphasis on youth and longevity. But again, that's for a format with minimal roster turnover and with a heavy emphasis on like, like a farm system. So how do I do a top 50 keeper lifts that's different from those? And the way I've decided to set it up over the past few years is to tailor it specifically for those keeper leagues where everybody's not kept on equal terms, where you're having to forfeit something to keep a player. And the something that you're forfeiting is relevant, is, what's the word I was going to say?

The something that you're forfeiting, the something that you're forfeiting, is relative, that's the word I look at, relative to what you paid for that player. So, you know, if you drafted a player in round 13, you might keep them in round 13, or maybe there's a slight markup, you keep them in round 11 or 10. You know?

So that's a key variable to these top 50 keepers is where the player was drafted on average last year. Now, are these rankings directly applicable to anybody? probably not right but nobody's league drafted exactly off ADP and if you've had a keeper league set up like this for several years there are still holdovers right guys who were drafted later than ADP years ago and you're still reaping the benefits of the discounts or are these really and truly one through 50 the top 50 keepers in your league probably not I just don't think there's a way for this exercise to directly apply to any one league or any one person.

I think you just, you have to consider it more of a rough guide. And, you know, I think mostly it's become a tool that people can look at and argue about. That's mostly what it exists for. But hopefully there is some practical application, even if there's not a direct one. I think the main word that you used there, Scott, is relative, right? So this is relative... The word I kind of think of. This is relative to each person's league

and the way that players are, you know, valued in that league. And I think that, you know, that's the other word that I would focus on there too is that these keeper rankings are based on value. They are value based from the previous season. You know, how cheap did you get that player for, you know, what kind of impact did they give you last season?

So basically you're trying to just put all of these things together and spit out like a rankings list. So of course it is subjective. So there's going to be people who have things to say about it, which is perfectly fine. And I thought it was interesting. The four priorities that you highlighted in the article are in this order. Potential for impact. So, you know, people who impact right away, you know, really the early round players. Yeah. And the extent of the impact. Potential for impact, extend the impact. Studs are what sets you apart in fantasy, particularly if you're talking a 12-team contest. So even more than the extent of the discount is how much keeping this player is going to set you apart.

Right. So all four of those priorities, potential for impact, extent of the discount, degree of assurance. And lastly, youth and longevity, which obviously matters more so in dynasty leagues. And just to put a bow on the Keeper versus Dynasty discussion, because I thought that you said it well, Scott. I think in Keeper leagues, for me, the biggest distinction is, you know, maybe anywhere from one, to six keepers, one to eight. I think maybe if you get over eight players being kept on each team, then you're starting to talk about a dynasty context.

But really for me, the difference is just that you keep more players in Dynasty. You almost keep your entire team, I would say, year over year. And I do think that there's more of a prospect element in Dynasty leagues, whether it's having minor league spots in your team, a farm system, whatever it might be.

It just goes deeper into the player pool. So I would say that's really the biggest difference between Dynasty and Keeper League. So, all right, well, let's jump into this list, Scotty, and start off with the top five keepers, in your opinion. And it starts off with Vladimir Guerrero. And what's really cool on the site is, if you're following along here,

I'll put the article in the podcast and YouTube description, so you can follow along. Scott has the ADP for each player from last year. So you can kind of follow along and see, all right, well, who was of really good value? and, you know, let's say you just keep a player for one round higher than the previous year. Obviously, you know, that's going to boost up the value

of some of these players. Like, for example, in my Home Keeper League, we keep up to four players and they move up one round of value each year that they were drafted, but the catches you can only keep each player for up to three years. So eventually everyone gets an opportunity

to draft that player again, which, in my opinion, seems really fair. And I think that this is the way to do a Keeper League, by the way, Scott. I think that there should be some kind of penalty. I know some people might push back on that. Maybe that's the way that they've played for so long where you can just keep your five best players,

which is fine. If that's how you've always played, sure. But, yeah, that's how my league's set up. It's not really, like, I don't have a lot of experience with this keeper format. I'll just be totally honest with you. And then play in at least a dozen leagues every year. And there are so many different formats out there that I've just never gotten a chance to play in a keeper league where you do keep somebody,

relative to where they were taken. Keeper leagues I've played in, it's just your best player, straight up, right? So, you know, I'm just putting that out there, that there are so many different variations for these formats. Like, get back to what I was saying earlier. This list can't be all things to all people, because if you're a league, you know, the markup from one year to the next is three rounds,

well then suddenly Vladimir Guerrero drafted in round four, you're paying a first round cost to keep him, right? Right. So does he really deserve to be, spoiler alert, number one on this list in that format? If it's a first round pick, you're giving up to keep him anyway. I think he would probably be in the top five still, but I have him number one. And then you mentioned in your league there are limits to how many years you can keep these players. Well, that makes a difference too because locking in Cedric Mullins indefinitely as a late round pick,

well, that's much more attractive in a league where you can do that than one where you're only doing that for two years. So, you know, that would affect how high he is on the list. I like it. I like it with the penalties, Scott. So, I mean, that's what I like, that's what I've, this is my longest. a standing home league. It's a head-to-head points league. And I like the fact that there's a penalty. So I would encourage everyone to play with something like that.

But let's jump into the rankings. Top five here. You have Vladimir Guerrero. And then Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, Shohei Otani, and Ronald Acuna. And I'm just going to go ahead and assume that you have Otani ahead of Akunia because of where Otani was drafted last year.

So assuming that there is some kind of penalty, if you're able to keep Otani, for a 13th round pick or an 11th round pick, whatever it might be. To you, that is more valuable versus just keeping Ronald de Cunia in the first round. Yeah. I mean, legitimately, realistically,

both are going to be kept, right? They're both in my top five and the top 50 keepers. But yeah, of the five names you've mentioned so far, Otani was the latest drafted this past year, going in round 13 on average in Roto, round 11 and average on CBS heads. to head leagues. And so, you know, particularly if the markup is only a round or no rounds from one year to the next,

the getting a, what's a consensus first round pick this year, maybe second round if you play in a points league, getting him halfway through your draft. I mean, that's a huge discount. Acuna is somebody who, you know, this, remember, this league is kind of short-term focused, doesn't pay no attention to longevity, but that's only the fourth factor that's really being considered here. And the likelihood of Ocuna

missing a month or two of 2022, even though realistically you want to hold on to him forever with your first round pick, it's enough to drop him behind Otoni. By the way, in my home league as well, the penalty for keeping a first round pick, someone drafted in the first round from the previous year, is you have to give up your first and your first

and your fifth round pick. So it becomes really expensive if you want to do that. So I don't know that, you know, again, it's everyone's going to be different. Probably because it's so obvious to keep your first round pick. Exactly.

And they're trying to discourage you from doing that. So yeah, I mean, if your league is set up like that, this, these rankings probably look quite a bit different. Yeah. But I think the players who rank highly in terms of value,

that definitely still makes sense. And I think would be applicable in leagues like that as well. Let's move out to 6 through 10 in the keeper ranks. Wander Franco checks in at number 6. And then Jose Ramirez, Boba Chet, Kyle Tucker, and Corbin Burns. Wander Franco was a 24th round pick in Roto last year, 23rd round pick in head to head.

And again, I think this just comes down to the value, Scott. I mean, the fact that Wander Franco is as young as he is, but also that we expect him to make a pretty big impact right away. I question his immediate impact. in Roto, but in terms of a points league, we spoke about this in our first head to points mock draft. He hit seven homers, 18 doubles, five triples, and he had just like 12% strikeout rate. He averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game. That's definitely going to play in a points league. Yeah, and I think he's going to hit for average. If nothing else, eventually the power

is going to be there. Could the power happen this upcoming season? I think it could. He showed more power late in the year. I think he had, did he have three home runs in the postseason? Either. Two home runs in the post. In four postseason games, two home runs. Yeah. You know, obviously a tiny sample, but still, it's nice on a national stage there, Rwanda Franco

shreds and pop, and I think that's definitely in his future. And if he emerges as a first round type play this year, I'd come to the surprise of no one. As for his placement on the list here, number six overall. ADP this past year was around 24

in Roto, 23 and head-to-head. I imagine because obviously that's ADP of all leagues drafting, but if you knew it was a keeper league, he probably goes earlier than that, but still, particularly in a league where only

four or five players are kept, it's, it is plausible that he wasn't drafted any earlier than like round 15. And if that's a discount that you can repeat year after year. There's not like a two-year limit on it like in your league, Frank.

If that's a discount you can lock in for years to come, there's an argument that Wander Franco even needs to be higher than this. Yeah, so I was going to mention last year in my home league, I drafted Bobby Witt, and we have two minor league spots too. So I usually pull the,

whatever, the best minor leaguers are up in that draft, and I'll probably take them in like round 15 or round 16 just to make sure that I get them. and then I'll just stashed them all year. And if they get called up, cool. Let's see if they make an impact. If not, then I have the option to keep them in the following year. So I would say for anyone who has a league set up similar,

yeah, maybe just pull them up the board a little bit to, just to have that possibility of keeping them the following season. Corbyn Burns checks in at number 10 here, Scott, your first pitcher in terms of keeper rankings here. And are you lower just in general on pitchers in keeper leagues? I know typically we are in Dynasty, but what about Keeper League's where maybe there's not as much, where there is more turnover, obviously.

Yeah, I'm not that much lower in a Keeper League. And you pointed out the difference perfectly. I mean, Dynasty League, how many years ahead can you project any pitcher? They're so combustible. It's just a bad idea to do that. But again, these rankings are focused more on the near term. but there is still that small long-term consideration where particularly this high in the rankings

when you're talking about players that you'll keep it basically any cost for as long as you're allowed to keep them, then it's a really high standard for a pitcher. I think Corbyn Burns, obviously, any for inning. He was the best pitcher other than DeGrom this past year, and there is potentially a multi-round discount. He was drafted in round five on average in Roto,

around seven on average in head-to-head points. And by the way, that's Fantasy Pros Roto, CBS, head-to-head points. So it's if sometimes it seems like, well, why is he drafted later and head-to-head points when he's a pitcher? It's because I'm using two different sources for those numbers, which maybe I shouldn't do, but whatever. I wish Fantasy Pros had head-to-head ADP because I prefer their ADP. But anyway, getting back to Corbyn Burns.

Yeah, there's a chance you could keep him in round five or later when he's being drafted now in round two. So, you know, that's a nice discount for a really high end arm that should have, in theory, should have a few good years ahead of him.

Yeah, and he might even be a first-round pick in head-to-head points league. So, yeah, I mean, definitely a possibility. And wow, Sky, you prefer fantasy pros ADP over CBS. I'm... Just because there's more data. I am telling our bosses.

It includes CBS is 80s. and several others. No, I agree. Yeah, it is a great tool. 11 through 15 here, we got Trey Turner, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout,

Garrett Cole, and Mookiee Betts. Really don't think we need to say much about this group. It makes sense. They're all big names. They're all proven commodities. Even some that are a little bit older.

In a Mike Trout, he turned 30 years old this past year. When he was healthy, he was still really good. You know, whenever we've seen him in recent years, whenever he's been healthy, he's been exactly that.

He's been really, really damn good. So. Now, 13th is probably the lowest I've ever had Mike Trout, but I still think just like, and I understand there's some debate. Oh, do you really use a first round pick on Trout? I say you absolutely do.

Others, you know, maybe not. But like, if I had Mike Trout in a Keeper League, I just can't imagine giving him up as bankable as he's been for you. Basically, since he entered the league, with obviously the calf injury last year being the only exception. I think you cling to him in a keeper league like he's the best player in baseball because he may be. All right. Well, you have an outfielder that is outside your top 20

keeper ranks that I actually would keep over Mike Trout. We'll talk about that when we get there. But 16 through 20, Cedric Mullins, who was undrafted last season. Austin Riley at 17, then Julio Arias, Sandy Alcansara, and Robbie Ray. We spoke about four out of five names on this list on, yesterday's podcast. So if you didn't catch that,

go back and listen to it. We were talking about the biggest breakouts from 2021 and how likely it is for them to repeat. Mentioned Ced Cedric Mullins was undrafted last year. Scott, what do you think the penalty should be? I know that your Keeper League

doesn't use penalties, but what do you think the penalty should be for an undrafted player, a free agent? In my home league, it's the 12th round pick, smack daddy in the middle of the draft. So explain this to me

because I've never understood this. why is there a penalty why is it more expensive to keep a player who's picked up off waivers versus one who was actually drafted late? Because I kind of feel like

it should just default to the last round. A guy who wasn't drafted, that's how you should treat his keeper value going into the next year because you know, you paid even less for him than the draft pick you paid for somebody who was drafted,

you know, late? Is it just kind of rewarding somebody for having the foresight to take a guy late? Because they were thinking, ah, I think this guy would be good. And I can keep them for really cheap next year when maybe a waiver wire pickup is, there's more luck to that? Is that the thinking? I genuinely don't understand it. That's exactly it. What you just said, that's exactly. Yeah, we reward people for drafting players that they think have that breakout ability, maybe prospects that they hold on to throughout the course of the season. And we used to do it where an undrafted player, a free agent throughout the course of the

year would just be a last round pick. And if you're keeping four waiver wire pickups, then it would just be your last four picks. But yeah, I mean, there was just so many keepers at that point that were just like the last four picks of the draft. We were like, well, let's incentivize this a little bit and find a way to do that. So yeah. It just made it, it just made it too easy to. have these dirt cheap keepers. Exactly. That's kind of the downside to making it. So the waiver wire pickups are laid round keepers.

I guess I could see that because obviously the guys you draft at the end, even in a shallow league, is more likely than not, they're getting dropped at some point because somebody like Cedric Mullins or whoever else is emerging on the waiver wire. So I guess that makes sense. I still think maybe round 12 seems a little stiff. Like a little too much. but you've experienced it in a way I haven't so I can't really speak to that.

Yeah, I mean, the thing is, I can just rattle off a few names that I've picked up in recent years. Jack Flaherty is someone I would keep year after year because he was a free agent pickup and I was able to keep him in round 12. No, you Darvish, I think, was actually drafted. But, yeah, Jack Flaherty is the one that comes to mind,

but usually there are a lot of players kept in round 12. Like every year, I don't, you know, there's maybe one or two, draft picks that actually happened in round 12 because so many free agent waiver wire pickups are actually kept in that round year over year. San Diego Concer, we haven't really talked about much outside of the few mock drafts that we've done, Scott, but he is 19th year in terms of your keeper rankings. And I love him.

I mean, I think that everything is there for him. The fact that he's in the prime of his career right now, he's 26 years old. He's a workhorse, one of four starting pitchers who went at least 200. innings this past season. He made big strides in terms of his control. He's got a four-pitch mix. Gets a lot of ground balls. I feel like everything is there. And maybe you kind of knock the strikeouts because you see he's under a strikeout per inning. But the swinging strike rate to me tells a different story that maybe there's more strikeouts coming on the way. So that's elite. And it was crazy over the last two months, I believe it was. Like it got much better over the

course of the season. His final 13 starts got 15% swinging strike rate. Yeah, I love Sandy Alcantra as well. It's not as big a discount as some of the players ahead of him, like Cedric Mullins and Austin Riley. He was drafted around 11, 10-11 on average this past year. So, you know, if it's like a three-round markup in your league, you know, you still want to keep him in round 7 or 8. That's why he's the 19th best keeper here.

But it's not the dream scenario necessarily. but yeah, I think he's awesome. The one big drawback for Sandy Alcantra is that he plays for the Marlins. What do you have last year? Eight wins, I think it was? His win-loss record, given how good he pitched. It was how well he pitched.

It was so unlucky. Nine and 15. Nine and 15, geez. Nine and 15. Now, he was still great in fantasy, even in points leagues, in spite of that record, which is a testament to how well he does everything else. But, yeah.

Yeah, it's a drawback. And I don't see the Marlins being particularly on offense that much better this year. Whoa, Scott. At Viseal Garcia, come on, give this guy some credit. Move over, Chris. We've got a new Marlins fan on the podcast because I am all about it, man. Sandial Concer, like, I like him quite a bit. Let's move on to 21 through 25 in the keep of ranks.

You have Walker Bueller and then Brandon Woodruff, Shane. Bieber, Luis Robert, and Raphael Devers, and Luis Robert is the name that I was referring to earlier. I wouldn't keep him in a vacuum over Mike Trout, but I think given the discount, fourth round in Roto, seventh round in head-to-head, you're talking

about a player now who what I've seen is pretty consistently a second-round pick in draft so far, at least in Roto. Maybe he falls a round further in head-to-head points leagues. There's just so much to like, Scott. 24 years old, what he did this past season. I don't know how sustainable it is, but 338 batting average, 13 homers, six deals,

cuts that strikeout rate down tremendously. It seems like, much like Sandale Alcantara, everything is there for Luis Robert to just become this fantasy superstar. It's just, he just has to stay healthy. That's the biggest thing for him. Yeah. And it's worth pointing out that I'm not really arguing against keeping any of these players, no matter where they're ranked. I mean, what, a 24 here in the top 50. That's where Luis Robert is. And, you know, if you're talking about a 12-team league where five players are kept on each team, that's 60 keepers.

That's more than can even be shown on the top 50 keepers here. So they're all good keepers. But the reason Luis Robert isn't higher than this is because his roto ADP specifically, which is more valuable format, was round four this past year. if there's a markup of two rounds, round two is where he's being drafted. And in some rhodo leagues, I think 12 teamers,

it's possible he gets pushed into round three because he's more of a late second rounder than an early second rounder. So, you know, if you're really limited on keeper space, I don't know that it's, I don't know that he's automatic. And particularly in a keeper scenario,

there's a chance somebody even drafted him earlier than this because it's a keeper league, right? So I don't think the discount for Louise Robert is that great. But yes, the potential for impact is high, and there's a chance there's some small discount there, and there's some longevity and being only 24 years old. So still a fine keeper. I want to go out there and make some crazy claim,

but I'm not going to do it. Am I going to do it? Should I do it? I just feel like Luis Robert has this, like, Ronald Acuna type, upside Scott and I don't know maybe I'm just drinking the Kool-Aid too much but man I'm I'm about it probably not the speed of a Ronald de Kunya but there is just a lot to like there uh there there is a first round outcome and I do mention it in the article actually oh so there you go sentences I wrote I mentioned it's easy to envision a first round outcome for Luis Robert so I don't I don't think it's

that wild of a claim yeah and and with that this is a good time to point out Scott likes Luis Robert. It's not like you're down on him or anything. So I want to point that out as well. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll get to the rest of the Keeper rankings here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so let's jump back in at 26 through 30 in the Keeper ranks. We have Zach Wheeler, Freddie Peralta, Matt Olson, Yerdon Alvarez, and Bobby Witt, Jr., our first prospect here in the Keeper ranks. And this is just a great group in terms of value. Zach Wheeler, eighth round and Rodo last year, Freddie Peralta, 22nd round. Olson and Yerdon Alvarez, They were in the seventh round.

Bobby Witt went undrafted in most leagues, assuming that you don't have any minor league spots or anything like that. But Scott, when it comes to Bobby Witt, second overall pick in 2019, 21 years old. We talked about him already a few times this off season. We've had the well Sean here to talk about what kind of impact Bobby Witt can provide potentially in year one.

I think we all kind of assume he's going to be up early. We'll see what happens with the CBA and whatever comes of that. But the steamer projection, is pretty bullish here. 267 batting average, 24 homers, 18 steals over 134 games for Bobby Witt. Yeah, I mean, he's got a ton of upside. He's got a projectable path.

Definitely seems like one of those prospects who could make an immediate impact. And it's interesting. So he's 30th here on the list, and it just so happens. I didn't do this on purpose, but I happened to look back last year to see where I had wander

Franco, who at that point was considered the top prospect to roster and fantasy, it was exactly the same spot. It was 30th in these rankings, which is especially impressive because this is a stretch of the rankings where it's like, what point is there of even ordering them? Right? Because there's just so many different variables and it's so dependent on your own specific circumstances. The fact I have Zach Wheeler 26, one spot ahead of Freddie Peralta, Zach Wheeler's ADP this past year between round five and eight, Peralta's between round 19 and 22.

If you wanted to keep Peralta more, you know, it really just depends on the extent how much of that discount is being applied in your league. You know, how many keepers are being kept, how many years you can lock them up for, lock in that discount for, because Peralta is obviously much younger than Zach Wheeler. I ultimately went with Wheeler ahead of Peralta because I think the potential for impact in 2022 definitely higher for Wheeler. I have 15 spots or more ahead of Peralta

in my starting pitcher rankings. But if there's reason in your specific setup to value the discount more, to value the longevity more, of course, don't have a problem with you keeping Peralta over Wheeler. It was a close call, even putting together these rankings. All right, 31 through 35. in the keeper ranks, we have Kevin Galsman, Chris Sale, Marcus Semyon,

Tayasca Hernandez, and Brian Reynolds. And for Reynolds and Sale, those are the two here that really stand out in terms of being the biggest values from last season. Brian Reynolds really was most likely one of the last round picks in your draft, 26th round in Roto, 27th in head-to-head. And Chris Sale, I'll point out, Scott. You know, he turns 33 in March. I'm sure you know that, and you factored that in here. But again, this comes down to he was drafted as late as he was last year. So even if he's only, let's say he's only really good again this year. And then he starts to fall off the year after that, starts to fall off a little bit more after that. Even if it's just for this year, he should be a

really, really good value based on last season's ADP. Yeah, I feel like the Tommy John recoverers, recoveries, however you'd say it. I feel like they are ideally suited for this format because everybody forgets about them the year that they were injured, you can get them for dirt cheap. No matter if they have the kind of history Chris Sale has or Justin Verlander has, like, consistent scy young contender, they tend to slip through the cracks because, you know, they're not the prospects that are on everybody's mind, of course, and they're not going to be able to contribute in the year that's currently going on. So if you're willing to stash them for a full season, you're going to reap the benefits

in a big way the next year. So I have Sale here at 32. Of course, we already saw him come back at the end of last year and looked pretty effective. I have Justin Verlander 43rd, so 11 spots behind because we haven't seen him come back yet, and because he's five years older, I think, than Chris Sale. You know, Chris Sale's not a young guy himself, but Verlander's 38. But still, they're both in my top 50. and although I haven't played exactly in this kind of keeper format,

I have some of my dynasty leagues are set up in a way that reward this significantly as well, the Tommy John recovery who slips through the cracks. Yeah, I think Justin Verlander went for, I don't know, $5 or $10 in the Scott White Dynasty League last year, and that's a league where you add $5 onto the salary year over year. Well, yeah, it's a little more complicated than that, but yeah. To put it in perspective, so Justin Verlander went for five this past year with an anticipation of using him in 2022, a high-end starting pitcher like that in the free agent auction would go for like between $50 and $60.

A Justin Verlander caliber pitcher like that. So to have him locked in the next year for, it would actually be $6. It would actually go up $1 for the next year. is obviously a good play, you know, obviously not an immediate play, but looking ahead to the next year. Yeah, and I have a few of those names later on that we will get to. I'll reveal them. So you might want to, if you play in a Keeper League,

write them down and make sure to just throw them in the queue towards the end of your draft to make sure you don't forget about them. 36 through 40, we have Logan Webb, Byron Buxton, Frankie Montas, Jorge Polanco, and Tyler O'Neill, Tyler O'Neill, 29th round pick in Roto last year, undrafted in head to head. And I was thinking about this earlier, Scott. I think Tyler O'Neill might be the biggest representative in how his value changes from one format to the other.

Normally we have some players like that where if this guy steals bases, if he strikes out a lot, obviously he'll be devalued in a points league versus Roto. Kind of feel like Tyler O'Neill is going to be kind of the face of that this year, where he's much more useful in Roto. He strikes out so much in a points league. I mean, a 31% strikeout rate this past season.

Yeah, like, I just, I think that's something that you need to expect when it comes to Tyler O'Neill. But he was amazing. 34 homers, 15 steals, finally managed to stay somewhat healthy, 138 games here. And he's just a freak athlete. So I think that there is a lot to like and also in the prime of his career, 26 years old. Yeah. Yeah.

I'm not sure. Of course, his skill set is more suited for Roto than points leagues. I'm not sure if he's going to be the poster child for that or not. Just this past year, I actually spit on my crop filter just now. So hopefully it's good at filtering that out as well. Yeah, so this past year, Tyler O'Neill 3.13, head-to-head points per game. That's compared to like 3.10 for Whitmeryfield, 3.17 for J.D. Martinez. as 3.19 for Brian Reynolds,

who we think of as more of a points league specialist. So in the same range as those guys. I think at least this past year, the points format valued Tyler O'Neill pretty fairly. It's obviously a huge discount. If you could pencil them in for the same numbers of 2022 that he had in 2021, I'd put him even higher on this list.

It does seem like a more volatile profile, file because of all those strikeouts and impact it it depends on him impacting the ball exceptionally hard which i think he has the ability to do and and maintain from year to year but having only done it the one year so far uh there are there are certain more expensive keepers that i would value over him um not not wanting it to be a one and done sort of keeper because he kind of in in case he comes crashing back down to earth because of that strikeout rate. Not projecting it to happen, but safeguarding against it a little bit by ranking him 40th here. I do think as long as he's healthy, the power and speed is pretty safe, but the batting average, there could be a lot of volatility there given that strikeout rate. So I would, like the range is he hit 286 last year. I would say that's probably close to the ceiling for Tyler O'Neill. I think the floor in terms of the batting average could be 220, you know, maybe even lower than that. So just keep that in mind. I think a lot of volatility.

in the batting average, but I think the power and speed is actually pretty safe for Tyler O'Neill. 41 through 45, we have Ozzy Albies, Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander,

Jesse Winker, and Joe Musgrove. And I think Jesse Winker is interesting. You know, I was looking at his numbers today and I realized he's been really good

every year that he's been in baseball. It's just he cannot stay healthy. So 288 batting average, 888 OPS for his career. It's great. But he's never played more than 113 games. So I like the player, Scott. I worry a little bit about the Reds lineup, losing Nick Castellanos,

maybe even losing other pieces. They're talking about selling some players off there. And then the fact that he can't stay healthy. So I like the profile. There are some red flags for Jesse Winker. Yeah. And my initial inclination, both on this list and in my redraft rankings,

was to put him higher than I ultimately have him because I think it's easy to overlook just how good a year he was having. He missed basically the last quarter of the season, right? So you forget how awesome he was before then. Using head-to-head points per game as the basis for comparison. Again, 3.72 for Jesse Winker this past year, Kyle Tucker was 3.51.

Yeah. 3.72 was like 5th,000. best at the position. You know, it was a total stud. And, you know, his skill sets more

suited for points leagues, so, you know, maybe adjust down a little bit in Roto. But the point is, he was awesome, hit 305,

949 OPS, plenty of power, 24 home runs at 110 games. There is the injury risk that causes me to downgrade him some, but there's also the platoon risk because he is

terrible against left-handed pitch. which is just terrible. I told you the overall numbers he had this past year. He had 176 with a 572 OPS against lefties, and that is something... So bad. That's been pretty consistent throughout his career.

So I don't know for sure that the Reds would platoon him. They're kind of in a semi-rebuild now, so they're not going to have many alternatives. And I imagine if Jesse Winker's going strong, they'll just put him out there every day. But there's always that threat than when he's not going as well, that they might experiment a little

having him sit against tougher left-handers and lose playing time that way. Plus, he's already 28, so he's not especially young. That's why he's 44th here, even though he was drafted pretty late, and just had an awesome year. Yeah, man, he's a tough one to figure out because I agree.

I like the skill set, but it's just, there are, you know, there are things that are worrisome here in the profile. I mean, specifically against lefties, He actually hit the ball hard against lefties this past season, 43% hard contact, but with a 53% ground ball rate and an 18% infield fly ball rate. So his batted ball profile against lefties is just all over the place.

And that is that many ground balls, that many popouts, that's going to lead to a really, really low babb. And there's not really any reason to expect it to regress as long as the batted ball profile looks like that. 46 through 50 here, Jonathan, India, Willia Dlamis. Jazz Chisholm, Dalton Varsho, and Alec Manoa, all of whom were undrafted last year outside of Varsho in the 20th round of Roto drafts last year,

because he is, as you point out in the article, Scott, kind of a unicorn. I mean, he has the ability to maybe produce a J.T. Real Muto-like stat line over the course of a full season, because he's going to play more than the average catcher. he has he's going to play in the outfield for the diamondbacks he's probably going to be the backup catcher there for them as well so i think because of that reason you just expect him to play more which inherently gives him more value as a catcher yeah and you didn't even mention the big

the biggest the biggest differentiator for dalton varsha which is the speed and like it's legitimate he was a legitimate base dealer in the miners jt rio muto has been among the better or base Steelers at the catcher position in addition to the playing time advantage he has. But his career high is still only 13 steals achieved just this past year, only two double-digit steel seasons in his entire career. When Varsho, I mean, it could be a 20 steel guy, potentially, as a catcher, as somebody who's catcher eligible anyway.

So I think there's a chance that he is just the automatic number one catcher over the next few years because he just has he just has so many advantages that nobody else at that position has. Obviously, it depends on him hitting well enough to get those chances, but if he does,

and he showed signs after coming back up from the miners last year, that maybe he was breaking through, then the potential for impact here is something that's going to be well worth locking in with a late round pick. if that is indeed what you'd keep him for. Yeah, I mean, this group,

it all has youth on its side. They all have youth on their side. They all have extent of the discount on their side. But it's questionable how much of an impact they'll make because they're just not that proven yet. Alec Mnoyah, Jas Chisholm. Willie Adama is to an extent. And of course, Jonathan India.

I'm trying to think who maybe, if I was playing it a little safer in terms of sealing who I would have gone with here. I can't remember some of the names that I considered instead, but it's definitely like a group of 15 you could consider for those last five spots in the top 50 keepers here.

I do want to go back to one if we can. Sure. In the previous group you, the previous group of names you rattled off. Albies at number 41. Seems pretty low, right, for an consistent early rounder who's only 24 years old. But there's basically no discount being applied there.

Average ADP, round three in Roto, round four, and head to head. And that's kind of where he's been going the past few years. So there's not even really any like built-in discount from the past. in all likelihood. It's just you're keeping him at what it would cost to draft him, which may be worth it if a bunch of early rounders are already being kept. There's no reason to save that third round pick for somebody other than Aussie Albies, but it just may not be a particularly high priority for you.

If you have a lot of heavy discounts, you have a few keeper spots to work with. and your focus is on the short term. If you were playing a league where 10 players are kept, you know, getting to be more of like a borderline dynasty format, but I could understand keeping a 24-year-old with all these track record why that would be a much higher priority for you,

but that's just not how this list is set up. Yeah, and I think that's, that last point you made is a really good one, Scott, because the more keepers you play with in your league, the smaller the pool is of players that you could draft. So that's obviously going to change some valuations as well where, you know, if there's eight players being kept by each team in your league and Ozzy Albies is a third or fourth round keeper, then yeah, it probably makes sense to keep him there because,

let's say you throw him back, he might be a first round pick because of how many players already being kept. So these are things that you need to keep in mind as well when playing in keeper leagues. Awesome. I just thought of some examples, by the way, if some, if you're more, if you want more, assurances from your keepers if you're putting together a top 50 list of your own and you want more assurances with those last five spots than the jazz chisms and dalton varshas of the world zander bogart's few years older than ozzie albys sort of the same situation where you're really

not getting any sort of discount there but he's just very bankable yeah frets bremen who i mentioned earlier didn't quite make the list because he's on the wrong side of 30 and borderline first rounder jacob de grom obviously a lot of potential for impact there. Probably not much longevity and not really any kind of discount. It was interesting, by the way, kind of breezed by him.

But Shane Bieber, I had him way up at 23rd, even though you're probably keeping him with a first round pick, and he's probably not being drafted in the first round. It's just he's 26 years old, and he's had a couple years

where he was borderline the best pitcher in his league, right? And I just think the impact, the potential for impact and the possibility of longevity there are both so high that particularly if you're looking at a scenario where there's nobody nobody you would consider drafting in the first round is going to be available anyway I think he's worth holding on to even with even considering some sort of you know long term long term ramifications there Shane Bieber is just a Scott White special man you love this guy Well, yeah. It's true. Why wouldn't you? I don't just look at the performance.

I mean, even this past year, he was incredible in April. I think there is still a lot of, I think there's a lot of risks, Scott, right now. Just where we are not knowing anything outside of seeing him return in late September, making only two starts, you don't have to put much stock into that. But the fact that his velocity and his spin rates were way down in both of those starts, I mean, it is something that's in the back of my mind. I mean, he hadn't even really stretched out. He was going two innings. I don't know.

I don't put much stock in that. But fair enough. I did also want to mention because I had Alec Manoa here rounding out the list at number 50. I could have just as easily gone with Shane McClanahan, Dylan Cease, maybe even Shane Boz. They were basically all undrafted as well or drafted very. late. You know, I went with Manoa. I like Manoa the best of that group, but those are all very similar cases, and he's kind

of a placeholder for all of them. All right. There are a few other things that I want to get to here quickly, Scott. And I mentioned I have this list of who might be a good keeper late in drafts this year based on injuries, maybe players who are still kind of working their way back from Tommy John. And I also have a few young hitters that I think have the ability to maybe take that next step. So I'm going to throw the injured ones at you first here, Scotty, and you let me know,

I don't know if there's one or two names here on this list that you like more than the rest. Dustin May had Tommy John surgery last season. Sixtho Sanchez had shoulder surgery. Some not so great reports either coming out about him. And I think it was Craig Miss who reported that Sixth of Sanchez is basically just going off and doing his own thing. He's like not listening to the team doctors when it comes to rehab. So that doesn't sound great. Nate Pearson had sports hernia surgery back right after the season ended. He should be good to go for the start of the season. Steven Schrosberg is 33 years old. He had thoracic outlet surgery. That one is quite scary. Kent and Maida had Tommy John and Mike Soroka had Achille surgery again last season. So one or two

names here, Scott, that stand out? I think the most attractive keeper by far is Dustin May. Yep. And I'm not even sure he's a great keeper for the context we're talking about where you only keeping five or six players because he hadn't achieved that left he hadn't gotten to where like chris sale and just of verlander are right he looked like maybe he was turning the corner but it was five starts right i think i think it's more of a dynasty context where we're talking about um enjoying that dustin may discount but yeah the others are pretty worrisome kinta maya not so much because it's just Tommy john surgery for him but he's old he's old

he's very old yeah I think maybe if you're short term focused I don't know I still think I'd probably put Dustin May ahead of him but yeah Tommy John's surgery is very projectable as opposed to some of these other ones yeah Sixtho Sanchez you know I'm putting together my top 100 prospects right now and he's of course in it

but it's he's a very like boom or bust case right now because the the sort of shoulder surgery he had. I think it was a torn shoulder capsule. Not a great track record for the pitchers coming back from that. He's very young, of course. And, you know, Julio Reyes, forget what injury he had on his shoulder. And I worried about that then. And he came back just fine, obviously. But if Sixto Sanchez comes back and he's

throwing 94 instead of 98, then suddenly it's like his entire profile changes. And I mean, look what we saw with AJ Puck for the, athletics last year, I guess it would be a similar situation where he seemed like a very bankable pitching prospect. Sixto Sanchez even more so because we've seen him do it against major leaguers. But Puck's dynasty appeal just cratered because his velocity wasn't there returning from returning from injury. And if that happens for Sixto Sanchez, you know, he'll either, if he comes back fine,

he'll probably be a fixture in your fantasy rotation right away. If he doesn't, then, yeah, I mean, he might be a dynasty asset to unload. All right. Well, again, that is Sixtho Sanchez. A few other names here you might want to target late in your keeper drafts. Luis Severino, Mike Clevenger, Noah Centregard. That's really a trio of Tommy John recoveries. Is that what we settled on?

Recoverys, I think. Severino and Cindergarde, they pitch a little bit down the stretch out of the bullpen for their respective teams. Mike Clevenger did not. He should be good to go by the time, you know, spring training, hopefully comes around and the season starts. So those are some names later on in your drafts. And then some

young hitters who I think still have quite a bit of upside. Alex Kirolov, Gavin Lucks, Seya Suzuki. He's not really young, but lots of upside apparently coming over from Japan, assuming he comes over from Japan. Andrew Vaughn, O'Neill Cruz, Joe Adele, Spencer Torkelson, Josh Young,

and Adley Rushman. And really All these names, I think, are players who could have an impact this season as well, and they're just going later on in drafts. But, yeah, there's a real chance that they take that next step. And maybe we're talking about them next year as the biggest breakouts. Yeah, I mean, players to target late, if a league set up like yours and picking up a waiver claim isn't going to be nearly the same discount as drafting a guy late. I think all of these names make sense.

I don't have a lot of hope for Gavin Lux being an impact player anymore. But that's just me. I didn't want to mention with Louis Severino, Mike Clevenger, Noah Cinderguard, really the time to have them stashed away was last year, because they're probably going to be drafted around the top 50 pitchers this year. I have them all just a little inside my top 50. And you'll notice none of them made my top 50 keepers with the discount being applied from last year. I just don't think any of those three are as bankable as like a Justin Verlander or Chris Sale,

who both ranked pretty low on the list. So they didn't miss it by much. If I was ranking them in terms of how much I want to keep them, it would be Luis Severino 1, Mike Clevenger 2, Noah Cindergarde 3. Yes, let's go Yankees. All three of them are currently being drafted outside the top 175 and 80P. So that's what caught my eye, the fact that they're going pretty late as of now. Obviously things could change over the next couple of months.

Let's wrap up here, Scottie, with a few Facebook Keeper questions that we got over on Facebook. Duh, I just said that. This one's from Jason King, looking to keep two of these three. Alec Menoa, Shane Baz, and Logan Gilbert. I love Manoa,

but what are your thoughts on the floor slash ceiling for the other two? Well, look, they all have a very high ceiling. Yes. I think Menoa wins out the floor case. The floor case puts Menoa ahead, certainly in redraft leagues.

If you're talking more of a long-term situation, I think I go boss. Boss is my number one pitching prospect entering this year. I think Grayson Rodriguez would be the consensus, and those two are clearly one and two in some order. I go boss ahead of Rodriguez, though. Yeah, I'm cool with that. I think Boss has the highest upside of these guys, too. And I like Logan Gilbert.

Based on the way that I've drafted so far in ADP that I've seen, I just have this feeling. I'm still kind of working through my rankings right now. but I think I'm going to be higher on Logan Gilbert than the consensus, but I'm still going to have Alec Manoa ranked higher than him for redraft, and yeah, just Shane Boz in general. I worry a little bit about the workload this year for Shane Boz, but I think long term, the upside is absolutely tremendous.

So, yeah, I would go with Manoa and Shane Boz, if you're thinking long term for those two. This one's from Garrett Spence can only keep two, and they move up two rounds each year. Brian Hayes in the 13th, Jared Kellnick in 13th, and Bobby Witt, Jr. in the 16th, well, Scott, you really only need to decide on one of these because Bobby Witt was inside your top 50.

Yes, yes. Kellnick's the other one. It's not a hard decision. I know I love Taze going into last year. He wasn't the caliber of prospect either of these other two are, and he's coming off a year that raised a lot of doubts about what kind of offensive ceiling he has. So, Witt and Kelnick are the easy, easily the two choices here.

Steamer projections for Jared Kellnick, by the way, 232 batting average. Don't love that. But 22 homers, 12 steals, you know, if you could find a way to get that batting average up, which I think he could. You know, maybe he could hit like... Oh, yeah, he easily could.

Yeah, maybe he can hit like 250 this year and then, you know, long-term continue to build on that batting average. But even if he does that, 250 with, you know, 20 plus homers and double-digit steals, that would be a fantastic season for a 13th round keeper. This next one's from Gary Crocker, 12-te-to-head standard categories. I'm already keeping Trey Turner, Jose Ramirez, and Yerdon Alvarez.

I need to choose four more of these. Jared Kelnick, Chris Sale, Ian Anderson, Francisco Lindor, Alex Kiroloff, Mitch Hanigur, and Fran Mil Reyes. Mitch Hanigar, I thought, was kind of interesting. I don't know how close he was to making the list got, but I know he was drafted really late last year. He was, yeah. I don't know that.

that the peripherals are such that, like, I kind of feel like what he did, what this healed version of Mitch Hanager, what he manifested as in 2020, is basically the high point for him. I feel like he can only get worse, and he's not that young. So that's why he's not on the list,

but yeah, he didn't miss it by much. So because there were no round numbers included here, no salary values, and I assume this is just keeping, the best players straight up, and if that's the case, I go... I go Hanager, Lindor,

Sale, and... That last one's a little tough. Probably Ian Anderson. I think I would go Kelnick. But it's close. Well, head-to-head categories, yeah. I mean, it kind of depends how many outfielders you start. Right.

Because then you'd have Yerdon Alvarez, Kellnick and Haddiger, those would be your three. Assuming you play three, but maybe you use more than that. But yeah, I agree with the first three and then it's close between Ian and and Jen. I'd probably lean Kalnick with you. Yeah, just depends on the circumstances a little bit. All right, this last one is from Alvaro Jose Escortio.

Escorsia. I hope I said that right. Is Riley Green worth a keeper in a 10-by-10 head-to-head categories with up to 10 keepers? Riley Green, for those who don't know, Tiger's Outfield Prospect, to the top 10 prospect overall in baseball. And this past season in the minors, 301 batting average, 24 homers, 16 steals across AA and AAA.

I think there's a good chance we see him. We're going to see him this season. I don't know how early, Scott, but I'm thinking maybe like May or June. Potentially, yeah. There's some disagreement in the prospect community, whether Riley Green or Spencer Torkelson is the better prospect for the Tigers, I go Torkelson,

but they're probably four and five in my top 100. Ten keepers. I mean, obviously it depends somewhat if you're going for it in 2022 or if you're not. Yeah. Let's assume a 12-team league. That means 120 players are being kept. I mean, Riley Green is not anywhere close

to the top 120 in terms of ADP right now. So 10 is getting to that point where there's not a lot of roster turned over happening from year to year, and you do need to be a little more long-term focused, even if you're not going, even if you are going for it. And you can't get many prospects better than Riley Green. I still think he doesn't quite make the cut in a 12-team league.

If it was deeper, 15 teams, 16 teams, certainly like a 24-team league. It's probably a different story. But I think he falls just a little short for me. Yeah. He's on the fringe. It's close. And look, Alvaro, you know your league more than we do. So if they're keeping, you know, if every team is keeping a prospect or even if some teams are keeping multiple prospects,

and yeah, I think you probably want to consider more so keeping someone like Riley Green. So it comes down to like circumstances here, but he's on that fringe. I think just in a vacuum, I would probably say no as well, but it is pretty close. We're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.