Fantasy Baseball Today - The Leftovers Part 1; What is xERA? (05/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 29, 2020

Today on the show we're taking a closer look at xERA and analyzing some forgotten players but first, how do we feel about actual leftovers? Scott wrote an article recently about xERA so what is it (4:05)? Like other ERA estimators, xERA could be helpful for Fantasy Baseball but how? Why does Aaron Civale have a better outlook because of xERA? ... Who are some of the winners and losers using this new stat (11:42)? Scott tells us how Julio Urias, Tyler Glasnow and a pair of Twins pitchers benefit. ... Leftovers Part 1 (23:11)! These are the players we haven't talked enough about yet this offseason. ... What's the outlook for Max Muncy (24:15)? ... Why is Max Kepler so similar to Muncy (26:36)? ... Can Mallex Smith bounce-back (29:10)? ... Why aren't people more excited about Scott Kingery (32:15)? ... Does Jean Segura have anything left in the tank (35:18)? ... What is Starlin Castro's upside (39:00)? ... Can Jorge Alfaro ever take that next step (41:10)? ... Why is Adrian Houser such a popular sleeper (43:40)? ... Will Jon Berti play enough to be relevant (45:05)? ... Put some respect on Wil Myers' name (47:07)! Why is NOBODY talking about Gregory Polanco (49:15)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy Friday, everybody. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. May 29th, Frank Stample here with Scotty Dubbs, Scott White, and even while on staycation, you can't stop the man. It's C.P.T. Chris, how's your week been going? I saw you post some picks with the new doggo. Yeah, I got a new puppy last Saturday.

We rescued him. His name is Stevie Nix. We have a boy dog named Stevie Nix and a girl cat named David Bowie, so keeping in with that theme. And he's a delight. Been taking him on long walks. And it's really, it's, it's, it's made my, my staycation all that much more fruitful. I also finally won a round of war zone on call of duty.

So it's really been a banner week in the tower's household. They've accomplished everything you need to do accomplish. Pretty much. I got, I got some household chores I need to get done before the end of the day. but otherwise I'm good. Just can't stay away, Chris. You just need a microphone in front of you. Can't take a simple vacation.

We shame Adam when he takes a vacation. We shame Chris when he works on his vacation. That's how it goes here. I mean, look, it's my first podcast of the week. You wanted to do it every day, didn't you? Initially, but like once the week started, I was like, no. I don't blame you either. You're on staycation, enjoy it as much as you possibly can,

but we're happy to have you here this Friday. We're also happy to have Scott, of course. Today on the show, we're going to be talking about the leftovers, basically players we haven't talked about yet or haven't talked about enough. And an article that Scott wrote recently about XERA, the other day we heard the debut of A ERA, Adams ERA. Now we're going to find out what XERA is. Oh, God.

But leftovers. What did he do? Oh, yeah. I don't know that you would have enjoyed it that. Chris. Scott, are you a fan of leftovers, like food leftovers? Yeah. Yeah, I'm not one of those people who turns my nose up to leftovers. The amount I enjoy leftovers depends on how much I enjoyed the meal initially. But, you know, it's always a fraction of that enjoyment, but it does cross the threshold of enjoyment. And I do enjoy them. I look forward to it the second time around.

I feel like leftovers are very split. It's a very, you know, it's some people like them, People don't. I eat leftover garlic knots from last night for lunch. So that tells you where I'm at. So I have no issue with leftovers at all. The key is figuring out the way to reheat the leftovers so that it, it, it, so that you retain the texture. Yeah, that's, that's the biggest thing. It depends on what we're talking about here.

Like if we're talking about, you know, like fries, there's no point in reheating fries. There's no way to do it right. Toaster oven. Toaster oven. I don't have a toaster oven, Scott. I'm in a tiny New York apartment. I got a tiny oven and that's it. I don't have a microwave.

Chris, I live in a basement. Chris, I live in a basement and I have a toaster oven. You can have a toaster oven, Chris. There's just, I can't. When's your birthday? When's your birthday? What's that? When's your birthday?

July 4th. All right, July 4th. Hopefully we'll be watching baseball on your birthday and I'll buy you a, I'll buy you a toaster. That would be great. It'd be an eventful day. A toaster oven and baseball.

And of course, July. And Chris's birthday. And Chris's birthday. All right, XERA, let's get into this. We've heard about FIP, X-FIP, Sierra, the newest Adam ERA, A-E-R-A. And XERA is basically the latest and a long line of ERA estimators. And this one comes from statcast, Scott.

And we cite a lot of statcast stats here on the show, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected Wobah, barrel percentage, average exit velocity. And it seems like now that they've come up with their own pitching estimator. So you wrote a whole article about this on CBSports.com. What did you learn and did it change your opinion on anybody? I will mention a few of the big winners and losers after you give your thoughts. All right, so I'll kind of take you a little bit through my history here with these ERA estimators. My favorite, my long-time favorite was FIPP because it really just assesses a pitcher,

estimates as ERA based on the three factors we traditionally think of as being in a pitcher's direct control, the three true outcomes, strikeouts, walks, home runs, estimates an ERA based on that. but with the home run explosion of the past few years, I kind of gravitated more toward X-FIP because what X-FIP does differently from FIP is it substitutes fly-ball rate for the home runs. And home runs, I feel like, have become a more random outcome as commonly as fly-balls turn into home-runs.

And so to account for that, I transitioned more to X-FIP. What XERA does and what stat cast does more generally is it's it's figured out a way for those Not true outcomes the balls in play basically. It's it's it's it's given us a way to estimate the likely outcome Outcome of those events so that they don't feel just random and we don't need to exclude them as just random noise and so XERA and In the same way it's done, in the same way StackCAS is done with XBA and XWBA and XLugging, it incorporates that data with those other measures to come up with an ERA estimate. Does that make it better?

Well, it seems to be more accurate in expressing what already happened. If you compare pitchers, ERA, XERA, and XFIP, ERA, the XERA is much closer to the actual ERA, or is generally closer than the XFIP is. But does that mean it's predictive? It's more predictive than XFIP. Research so far would suggest it's not, though they're all pretty close. I don't think you can lean on just any one of these to tell the entire story. good starting point. It's a good shorthand, but none of them will completely explain what's

happening for a pitcher and give you, you know, you can just rely on it blindly to tell you what's going to happen for a pitcher. So that's kind of the broad analysis of XERA. There are some interesting observations regarding specific pitchers here. The one that caught my attention the most was Aaron Savale, who is a popular sleeper among some in the fantasy analysis crowd. I didn't really get it because the main things I look for in a picture right now are always how good they are at striking out batters. Savale definitely below average in that. And more recently, how good they are at generating ground balls.

You can make up for a low strikeout rate with that, but Savale isn't so good at that either. and yet his XERA is 336. That's compared to a 461 X-Fib. So X-FIP was sharing my concerns for Savali, but XERA, 336, that would obviously be a very good ERA. In the 60 or so NNC3 last year. He actually had a 234 ERA, but I don't think anybody was expecting him

to repeat quite that number again. So what it would suggest is that Savali is really good at generating weak content. the kind that doesn't lead to many hits and he can potentially keep his ERA down that way. But again, how predictive is it versus how good is it explaining what happened? You know, especially considering it's a small sample size for Savale less than 60 innings, I would say it's more expressing what happened than predicting what's to come. So I'm not like moving Savale way up in my rankings because of this.

What I am doing is keeping a more open mind, like in league shallow enough where he goes undrafted if he gets off to a hot start and he's still not striking out many guys. You know, maybe I give him a chance. Yeah, what I would say to all of this, really, is especially when you're dealing with someone like Savali who has a very small sample size, well, was it like 45 innings or something?

57 and 2 thirds. Yeah, okay. That is, it's incredibly difficult. difficult to know which skills a player owns based on 57 innings to begin with. And when it comes to the ability to consistently induce weak contact, it's going to take even longer to know that because, and you'll notice I cite a lot of advanced statistics, a lot of, you know, baseball savon, hard hit and all that stuff when it comes to hitters.

when it comes to pitchers, I don't really. And it's because most of the data I've seen suggest that pitchers own, you know, quote, own maybe 20% of the variability in how hard a ball is hit or not hit. And hitters own about 80% obviously, you know. And that's just not very much. And so it takes a while for that noise to, you know, go away and for us to know what is skill and what isn't. But there are definitely exceptions.

You know, Savale may be that kind of guy. You've heard me make the kind of weird Kyle Hendricks, Jose Barrios comparison before. And they're very different pitchers. One throws 94 miles an hour, the other throws 87. But they both excel at limiting hard contact. And that's one where, If Savala is part of that class, we still need a lot more time to figure it out.

And I think that's a fair comp, just for what we're expecting from Savale. I wrote about him originally. He was part of my sleepers, breakouts and busts in my breakout column here at cbsports.com. And it was because I really like the command that I've seen in the minors. His swinging strike rates were much better in the minors than what he showed last year at the major league level. and he did consistently get ground balls at the minor league level as well. So he's an interesting name, and I think, you know, that's kind of the route that we can see him going down is one similar to Kyle Hendricks.

But, you know, among Savale, you have other names on this list here, Scott, that were either big winners, according to XERA compared to the other ERA estimators. X-P specifically is what I was comparing it against. Against ex-fip, and then you had some losers. and some of the notables, the biggest winners you had, John Means, Savale, Julio Urius, Kenta Maeda, and Chris Paddock, and then some of the biggest losers, Hermann Marquez, Kyle Gibson, Chris Archer, Kyle Freeland, and Robbie Ray.

So was there anything that you saw among those specific players that maybe changed your opinion a little bit? Because we spoke about Paddock maybe a month ago, and I think that's what really kind of got the ball rolling where you're like, okay, I have to take a look at this XERA and see what it's all about. I'm not sure it really, it firmly changed my opinion on anybody.

It's, it got the wheels turning a little more. Yeah, but add more context. Maybe that's a better way to put it. Yeah, yeah. So Julio Arias, and he's another guy who didn't have quite the sample of innings that a typical start.

pitcher would have last year because he was playing more of that swing man role for the Dodgers. So it's, it's, it's kind of unfair to use him anyway. But I was struggling with how much I liked him, how good I thought he could be, and the fact that he had a 428 X-PIP last year. His XERA is 309. His actual ERA was 249, but obviously you'll take a 309 ERA, even, you know, if you're acknowledging that 249 is too good to be true. But 428, you know, did he have quite the skills to be as dominant as,

I believed he could be as everybody else seemed to be thinking he could be? You know, I was kind of just tuning it out, recognizing that the talent level will probably be enough to push him over and that the sample size may have skewed what that number turned out to be anyway. And XERA, you know, the fact that it's so much lower, reassures me it's the right way to go with Arias. So that was that was one example. It seems like the ones I'm picking out are all small sample size guys.

But I was going to say Tyler Glass now, 294 X-Fit 178 ERA. Obviously, we talked about how inning for inning. He was the best pitcher in baseball last year, 178. Obviously 178, too good to be true. You can't expect anybody to sustain that from one year to the next. The X-FIP was 294, which would still be a great ERA. fact, if he qualified, Glassnow would have had the third lowest ex-fip among qualifiers last year behind just Colin Scherzer, I think. So 294 would be great. His XERA, though, 229, even better.

So that seemed like good news for him. A couple of twins pitchers, who I'm more skeptical of personally, Jake Oterizzi, 351 ERA but a 433 X-P. Jose Barrios, 3608 ERA, but a 433. X-FIP. You get up into the 430s in ERA, that's, you know, you're not going to be that fantasy relevant, generally speaking. But the XERA was much fair to them. It was still higher than their actual ERA, but it was closer to four rather than 430 for each of them,

you know, suggesting that there are skills they have that go beyond just the true outcomes. And maybe I'm not accounting enough for those. Yeah, it opened my eyes up a little bit more to Chris Paddock, originally I was worried about his 405 X-FIP, but 328XERA was actually better than his actual 3.33 ERA. So that was one where I was like, okay, I got to start to dive into this a little bit more,

and Chris is about to tell me why I'm wrong and why he hates Chris. I think it's important to also, like, it's hard to do with Tyler Glass now because he's such a different pitcher now than he ever was before. but we should also look at the track records and how those reflect the ERA and X-FIP gap. Obviously, we're not going to have X-ERA for Chris Paddock when he was in A-Ball in 2016.

But basically for his career, you look season by season, and there's a couple seasons where his ERA or a couple partial seasons where his ERA is a little bit lower than his ex-FIP. there's a couple where it's a little higher, but for the most part, you're not really looking at someone

who dramatically overperformed his peripherals year over year. And that for me, whether XERA helps us quantify what goes into that is, I think, a different story. But for me, the most telling thing is going to be the guys who have been able to consistently

outperform or underperform their ER estimators. And I think there's a really good piece on baseball prospectus maybe last year or two years ago when baseball savant introduced ex-WOBA and you had like ex-WOBA for pitchers, which is very similar to XERA. It's basically just trying to account for the true outcomes that a pitcher created. that basically he did the author who I can't remember sorry did like a bunch of regression analysis of every different type of you know Sierra and DRA from baseball prospectus and FIPP and FIPP is like the most crude

version of what we're talking about. FIP is basically just strikeouts, walks and home runs nothing else and like some of them are more accurate than FIP and some of them are more predictive, but you're talking about pretty narrow ranges overall, which is to say that we kind of, we mostly cracked that riddle, like whenever Voros McCracken came up with the idea in the early 2000s. And so we can improve on them,

but we're talking about relatively slim margins of improvement, I guess, the way to say. Yeah. Dan Richards, Dan Richards. I always think of Dave Richard. It's like the opposite of his name, Dan Richards. For Pitcher List, he shared some research he did. That actually showed FIPP, well, it's not the best at,

it's not the best at reflecting what already happened of the four big ones. It's not the best at that. It is the best at predicting what's going to happen the following year. Small margins, like you said. so I don't know that we should apply that across the board to every single pitcher. But, you know, it seems like only marginal improvements

are going to happen on this front. And I don't know that XERA is necessarily a game changer. I feel like if Adam were here, his head would probably be spinning and he probably would have gotten to a fight with Chris already. Right, but like the thing is... He's not.

Well, he's not. and also like, love Adam. Can't bad talk him. Great guy. Like he is objectively, is not promoting the, the objectively correct world view.

All of these, the point is, the reason you should use XERA or DERA or Sierra or FIP or XFIP or whatever stat you want to use, The reason you should use them is because they are more predictive and more telling of a pitcher's true talent level than ERA. Well said. That's ultimately what it comes down to. I said it backwards, man.

Somebody's going to correct me for this. All right. So let me just set the record straight, even though I'm sure nobody cares. I care. I care. Except the guy just misrepresented. So Dan Richards of pitcher list. what his research showed.

Nice guy. Was that FIP actually does a better job of expressing what already happened. X-FIP and Sierra. Actually, I think Sierra a little better than X-FIP, but those two are the ones that better predict what's going to happen next year.

I said FIP did. I got it backwards. From what I understand, baseball perspective, it says D-E-R-A, is even slightly more predictive. I think one of the key distinctions there is it takes into account pitch framing is the phrase I was looking for.

Yeah, I believe that's one of the key places it differentiates itself as takes into account pitch framing, but that's also not super sticky and predictive, especially when you're talking about, like, the white socks and. Brewers this year. Yasmani Grandal is pretty much unanimously considered, if not the best pitch framer in baseball, the best pitch framer in baseball who plays nearly every day. And so what kind of impact that's going to have on those two staffs, it seems like it should be pretty

significant. But I'm not sure we've quite cracked predicting that. Let's go, Lucas G. Alito. You know what they say. When Adam is away, advanced statistics are in play. So that's why we had to have this conversation while Adam wasn't around on this Friday. All right, we're going to take a quick break. When we return, the leftovers, we're going to talk about 12. Yes, 12. That means you guys better be, you know, hustle. You guys got a hustle.

Two minutes per player. We're going to talk about 12 players that we have not talked about enough yet throughout this extended offseason. We'll do that right after this here on fantasy baseball today. All righty, we're back. The Leftovers Part 1. the reason I say... Justin Thoreau.

Who's that? Star of the leftovers. Daman Lindeloff. I have not watched the show, but I've heard very good things, so I might have to... I haven't watched it either. I might have to dabble.

It's only 30... I think it's a little less than 30 episodes, actually. It sounds like it's a lot, though. Sounds like it's a long 30 episodes. It explores grief mainly, so yes, it's a heavy subject matter. The reason I say part one here for our leftovers is I ask people on our fantasy baseball today Facebook page

to provide us some players that they wanted us to talk about that we haven't talked about enough. And they gave so many submissions that I think we'll have to do a part two at some point, maybe even a part three. Make sure to join our fantasy baseball today Facebook page. Let's start off with Max Muncie. I'm actually going to time you guys. Two minutes per player.

So let's aim for one minute per person so you guys can get all your analysis in. Oh, geez. Yeah. This is going to be a fun exercise. Max Muncie. If you had any doubts from his 2018, those are now gone. ADP of 71.

Scott, what do you think of Muncie? He's got the dual position. He has actually three position eligibility. First, second, and third base. He's kind of just boring for me in Roto, but he's a great head-to-head player. You are on the clock, and it starts now. Yeah, tons of walks.

And I think walks, the influence they have in Roto is underrated because of, you know, what they can mean for runs scored. But yeah, he absolutely shouldn't be a platoon player. He's been better against lefties, I think, each of the past two years, actually, than righties. That is correct. I don't entirely trust the Dodgers.

They're just so, so anxious to have the platoons. And with expanded rosters, they might even be more anxious to have them. And I don't think Muncie's going to be of much help in batting average. But I think he's reliable and a good mid-range option at second base. Chris, when it comes to Max, Muncie. I said he's boring in Roto. He's not really a target of mine there.

Great and head to head points. The walk rates are massive. And yes, he was better against lefties last year. In 893 OPS against left-handed pitching, what do you think of Max Muncie? I think he's good. My initial thought when looking

through early ADP this year and looking at players who were going ahead of him in particular was that he was probably being underrated for some reason. but as the the draft season has gone on and particularly this extended draft season he kind of falls into that group of players

who I think probably deserve to be discounted that you know draw most of their value from their ability to hit for power they're not going to help you out in speed or average much specifically in Roto to the point where I think he's a fine second baseman fallback

option, but I'm not sure he's someone I'm reaching for in any context, really. And I don't know if I've really drafted him much this year as a result. A 15.8% walk rate over the past two seasons. That is fifth highest among qualified hitters. So again, better in a points league. And there you go, right on the mark. Two minutes for Max Muncie. Great job, guys. Max Kepler. Let's keep it with the Maxes. I think he's a lot like Muncie in what he provides. Home runs, run score. expected to lead off, at least against right-handed pitching, for one of the best lineups in baseball. His ADP is 123.6.

Chris, last year, Kepler averaged 3.5 fantasy points per game, the same amount as Bryce Harper and Austin Meadows, yet he goes more than 80 picks later than those guys. You're on the clock with Max Kepler. Max Kepler is a really interesting hitter because I think he's very good, but some of the stuff that we talked about with pitchers early on, applies to him. The quality of contact is very good, but he does make a lot of very bad contact.

And what I mean specifically by that is it's actually more like a Reese Hoskins situation where he just pops the ball up too much. In 2018, he started showing the ability to hit lefties. I think he's an everyday player now. But I think you're looking at probably like a 265 batting average ceiling. And again, like I'm fine with him in the 120 range. He's just not someone I ever find myself reaching for because it's just that power and not much else profile. Yeah, I would say he like Muncie stands out more in a points league. The Muncie, it's mostly because of the walks and Kepler's case. It's because Guy hardly strikes out at all.

And you look at where he finished and had dead points per game last year. It was right behind Carlos Santana, who himself was right behind Pete Alonzo. So, I mean, Max Kepler definitively an elite performer in a points league last year. Five by five context, yeah, he's not going to be much help in batting average. But what it really comes down to is just how legitimate was the power. It seemed like he was underachieving as a power hitter with some of the changes he had made to how he elevates the ball prior to last year. But the fact he's only been useful in the homerang category one year. It kind of puts him where Max Muncie was heading into last year

and that he's going to be discounted some just because we need to make sure he can do it again. And I think his power was helped out a bit by the juice ball. He had a 519 slug last year, a 458 expected slug. So I think the power probably takes a little bit of a step back, but really good walk rate and is going to see a ton of volume leading off for the twins. So again, I think those things favor him in a head-to-head points league. Somebody who you don't want in a head-to-head points league is Malick Smith.

We know the deal. 46 steals led baseball last year. I think the batting average can actually bounce back, but he's not a target of mine, and I'll tell you why, Scott. It's because if he gets hurt, you're relying on him mostly for your steals. You might not grab many other steel sources on your team, and if he gets hurt, you're basically sunk. So what do you think about Malik Smith, who led baseball with 46 steals last season?

Yeah, that's true. And not only that, power, you have to work so hard to keep pace in the power categories, just because there's so much of it to go around that, you know, completely tanking one roster spot for power puts you in a pretty, pretty significant hold there. Not only, you know, is there the risk of Smith getting hurt and then maybe, you know, you finish, you get very, buried in steals because of it, but he was horrible last year. He was saved because he played for the Mariners, and they didn't have too many viable alternatives. And maybe that'll be true again this year.

Maybe they won't be particularly interested in calling Jared Kalenik up in a short in season. And so they'll just stick with Malix Smith all season. But, you know, Dee Gordon's projected to be on their bench right now. They do have other ways they could go if Malick Smith is hitting about 220 again. And obviously he's not going to be stealing many bases for you if he's not in the lineup. So there just seems to be a lot of downside. I'd have to be in a pretty desperate spot for stolen bases to buy Malick Smith personally.

Chris, I think if you want to take Malik Smith in a Roto League, you have to know that going in. You can't just think on the fly I'm going to take Malik Smith because you need so much power to surround him with in order to have him on your team. Yeah, I think that's fair. but, you know, the stolen-based specialist isn't exactly new. And in his particular case, he's not necessarily just a stolen-based specialist. Last season, he was because he hit 227.

However, you know, the year before, he hit, what, 300? We're very close to it. He was a 277 hitter entering 2019. Yeah, I think we're looking at those are the ranges. You're looking at 227 as the floor, 290 something as the ceiling. I would expect him to hit like 275. But that's close to being helpful in this air.

It might even be a slight plus. And if he does hit 275, you're going to get a decent amount of runs from him and the potential to lead the league in steals. So Malick Smith is actually someone I think, you know, like Edwin Diaz, he's someone I'm definitely trying to catch on the, on the drop.

You know, really hyped a year ago. I don't think he's as bad as he was last year. Another roto target of mine is Scott Kingery, and he can provide steals without hurting the power numbers. Last year, 19 home runs and 15 steals. Chris, I actually think he's a lot like Byron Buxton to me. You know, why aren't more people excited about Scott Kingery? He doesn't have near the talent level of someone,

like Byron Buxton. Byron Buxton is the kind of player who, you know, I think if he, if he managed to stay healthy for a full season, he could pretty easily end up being a top 20 fantasy option, especially in a roto league. Now, obviously the health is a big issue, but, you know, Scott Kingery brings the same contact issues, which is surprising because it wasn't,

that was supposed to be one of his calling cards coming up. But he doesn't have the raw power, or in my opinion at least the the stolen base ability although I know he does rate pretty well by Stackass sprint speed data I'm surprised that Scott in a year when it seems like every stolen base source is being moved way up the rankings because people recognize the scarcity of that category

I'm surprised there's not more enthusiasm for Scott Kingery I'm not sure because, you know, he provides power numbers too. He actually had more home runs than stolen bases last year, 19 versus 15 and 458 at bats. I'm guessing, I don't know, maybe if people just look at the role he had last year, the number of bats he finished with and think he's going to be this super utility guy, or maybe they can't trust the playing time for him, but that's...

I think he's going to play third base pretty much every day. Yeah, right. Michael Franco's gone now. there's some I mean maybe Alec Baum will get a shot midseason to take over at third base but look at the Phillies outfield Kingery could move to center field and be an upgrade there so he's definitely going to play a lot

and if he plays every day talking about a potential 25 25 guy I just I think the bat might be really bad like you look at the stack has data for him and it's just nothing but blue and blue is not good. I will say the hard. Blue is like starbursts in baseball savant terms. I talked about Oscar Mercado when we were talking about sophomore slumps yesterday,

how I didn't love the data for him. But I think, and so Kingery's ADP according to fantasy pros is 181. Mercado's is 132. So a big difference there. I feel like between the two, I'm expecting similar results. Kingery has triple or double eligibility, but he could pick up second base as well. I think for that reason alone, I'd actually prefer Kingery even though he's going 50 spots later.

Yeah. I think that's fair. Definitely a fair point. His teammate, Gene Seguer, after three straight seasons with a 300 batting average and six straight seasons of at least 29 stolen base attempts, those numbers dropped to 280 and 13. last season respectfully.

Scott, is there anything left in the tank for Gene Seguer? Maybe he is, I've covered his whole career, and it has been frustrating, projecting what Gene Seguer is going to do, because he's had a couple seasons where he was like MVP caliber, almost. But for most of his career, he's been, you know, he's been kind of a marginal fantasy contributor. I think the biggest thing that could, the biggest potential game changer for him is no longer Gabe Kapler,

but Joe Girardi instead. And how will that affect his stolen base output? Because it was a, for a full season, it was a career low last year, right? The number of bases, Gene Segarra stole 10. Yeah, 10. After six consecutive seasons of 20 plus, a couple seasons with 30 plus,

a couple within that six season span. So, you know, we know he has the potential two, deal a lot of bases. I wouldn't hope for much more than 25, even in a best case scenario of Gerardi giving him the green light a lot more. But 25 is a significant number in today's environment. And if he's contributing that much, it doesn't matter. It's, I don't care so much that he's only going to hit a dozen home runs or so.

And he's been a consistent towards batting average as well. That's good. Chris, in Joe Girardi's 10 seasons as Yankees manager, they ranked top 12 in stolen bases seven times. So Scott might be on to something there if he gives Gene Seguro the green light. Yeah, it's actually funny. I very much was the anti-Gene Seguera guy when he had his kind of second breakout. And then I've really become a fan because I just think before last year at least,

he was a really solid, reliable four category contributor. Now, the home runs, you can maybe quibble with. He wasn't really a contributor there, but... He doesn't sink you. He's not a nothing. And if you're hitting 300 and you're hitting 12 home runs and you're stealing 20 to 30 bases and you're scoring 90 to 100 runs,

that's a really valuable player. And it's someone who has generally gotten overlooked. The other thing that I would point to, for really Gene Zagura, Scott Kingery, Reese Hoskins, I'm sure there were other Phillies who disappointed last year as well. That team didn't really seem to get the juiced ball. It was very strange.

Like their numbers kind of cratered across the board. The anti-Minnasota Twins? And I think part of that was like, they fired their hitting coach midseason. Charlie Manuel was the hitting coach, and Charlie Manuel is very much an old baseball head. And so maybe a new hitting coach will help them, you know, unlock the best of these hitters.

I'm not saying it's a guarantee, obviously, but it's a factor worth considering. Basically, I think most of the Phillies hitters can't be worse than they were last year. All right, we were over three minutes that time. to two minutes on our players. He's too interesting. He's too interesting.

Starlin Castro, someone who might not be that interesting. Not sure what to make of Castro. On one hand, he lifted the ball more in the second half and hit 16 home runs. On the other, he posted a 685 OPS against right-handed pitching. Scott, any love for Castro who was expected to bat in the middle of the Nationals lineup? Well, we talked earlier about Aaron Savale and how I didn't really get the enthusiasm from among the people who had enthusiasm for him. And I think Starling Castro would be the hitter version of that.

I understand he had a huge second half. I understand with it, it coincided with him elevating the ball more. I'm not totally sold on the idea that a 30-year-olds with 10 major league seasons has reinvented himself so much. And we have a long track record of mediocrity here. the 22 home runs he hit was a career high,

even though 16 came in the second half, like you said. He doesn't run much at all anymore. He's not going to hurt you in batting average, but he's not going to help you either. So it's really putting a lot on him contributing as a power hitter. And I just don't think there's enough of a track record to suggest he's going to be helpful there. Chris, Starlin Castro, former Marlon Great,

what do you got? The most interesting thing I can muster to say about Starling Castro is he might have like the third best chance of all active players to get to 3,000 hits, which is wild because he's not good and mostly hasn't been for his entire career. There were changes he made in the second half last season. And very, certainly people who are, what's that? 30 seconds left. Certainly people who are much, much smarter than me.

People like Al Melchior. really like what Starlin Castro showed. And the price is low enough that it doesn't really matter if you believe in him or not. You can take him with your 20th round pick and see if there's something there. I'm just very skeptical of it. Someone who might be a little more interesting,

also on the Marlins, Jorge Alfaro. Basically a younger Wilson Ramos. He hits the ball very hard, but everything is on the ground. His strikeout rain is also an insanely high 33%. Between him and Ramos there, yeah. Chris, you wrote about Alfaro's adjustments recently or what he needs to adjust.

Yeah. What do you got? He needs to adjust pretty much everything. He needs to become a baseball player. What I wrote, and I'm not trying to be me because I legitimately think you can make a case that Jorge Alfara is the most naturally gifted, physically gifted catcher in baseball.

He pretty much has the fastest throwing arm, the fastest sprint speed among. catchers, one of the highest average exit velocities, one of the highest hard hit rates, highest barrel rates, et cetera, all the way down in line. It's basically like he's one and two with either Gary Sanchez or JT or Ramuto in pretty much every category that we think matters for judging a catcher skill, at least. The problem is he's not a baseball player yet. He's this just incredibly enticing collection of tools that I don't know if he can put them together. He's already going to be 27 this season. So the odds seem pretty long. But he's someone

that I love targeting as a number two catcher in a roto league because if he does figure it out, there's legitimate star potential with Jorge Alfaro. He needs to hit the ball in the air more, like you said. He's got this flat swing and he tends to get out in front of the ball. Forty-five seconds. But yeah, I mean, if he makes a little bit more contact and elevates the ball a little bit more, 25 homers and a 270 average is not out of the realm of possibility. That can make him a top 10 catcher. Scott, you have 30 seconds. Chris said about Jorge Alfaro applies just as much now as it did

when the Rangers were trading him to the Phillies and the Cole Hamill's deal back in 2015. And if he hasn't made any real progress along those lines yet, I mean, he's going to be 27 here. now in a couple weeks. I mean, that's, I'm just not hopeful it's going to happen. That said, I mean, he's, he hits the ball so hard that he overcomes a poor strikeout rate and it has a decent batting average. He's already pretty useful in a roto league where you don't care that he's striking out

so much, but it's just, I don't think there's a lot of room to improve on it. Scott, Adrian Howser looked great over his final 12 starts. The problem was he didn't go very deep into games. Why is Hauser such a popular sleeper candidate? Yeah, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt there with the innings because he spent half the season in the bullpen and was bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen a lot and didn't get a chance to be stretched out like a traditional starting pitcher would. But the skills he has are exactly what I look for in a starting pitcher in today's environment. Elite ground ball skills like on the level of a Marcus Stroman. And yet a pretty good strikeout rate too, much better than Stroman about.

one per inning. And his audition as a starter went very well. Maybe if he wasn't facing the third time, the batting order for the third time, maybe if he was facing the third, the batting order for a third time more often, it wouldn't have gone as well. That remains to be seen. But I think at the range he's going, the skills are enticing enough to take a shot on him. Chris, the final 12 starts I mentioned, Forhauser, 328 ERA 109 whip, are you in? Not quite as much. just Scott, but he is definitely someone who I've written about as a sleeper this year. Ditto what Scott said. I have nothing to add. Sounds good to me. Let's go back to your Miami Marlins. John Birdie is basically the hitter

version of Adrian Houser, a 30-year-old journeyman who has sleeper appeal, and Birdie's 150 game pace last season was 106 runs scored with 34 steals. Will he play enough, Chris? that's a tough question normally uh you know i like to like to quote ian malcolm was that his name in yeah life finds life finds away uh in this instance i'm not sure john burdy is good enough to confirm that if life did find a way uh he would be the one to take advantage of it there's every chance that he was just a fluke last year um if he he wasn't, yeah, I would think eventually he's going to be playing every day. I think there, the potential isn't that different from Tommy Edmund. It's just a much less sure thing.

Yeah, now I definitely have a different read on this because he's a 30 year old with minimal power. So I don't think, I don't think he's aspiring to full time duty here. But he got, he saw action last year after getting called up to the majors. He saw action at shortstop, center field, third base, left field and right. field. So they used him as a super utility type, the kind that subs all over the diamond and gets a lot of playing time that way. And I don't see why he couldn't fill that role for the Marlins again this year. And then if he does, the one thing he does, he clearly does well is also the most in demand thing in Roto leagues right now, and that's stolen bases. In 73 games last year, he had 17

steals and 20 attempts and consistently high base stealing totals in the minors as well. The guy can clearly run. The Marlins are willing to let him run. And if he gets, you know, if he's starting two-thirds of the time somewhere on the diamond, there's a good chance he's a 30 steals guy, and those are pretty rare. Will Myers might be my biggest winner with the Universal DH. He is two seasons removed from going

30, 20, was having a big spring. Scott, what's the interest level here in Will Myers? I think Chris is probably higher on him than I am. but I get it. It was weird how much the Padre sat him last year. He ended up playing in 155 games, but a lot of it was coming off the bench. And, you know, I got the sense they had moved on from him,

that they were convinced he wasn't going to approve anymore, so let's try guys like Josh Naylor instead and see how good they could do for us. But, you know, they moved on from Manuel Margot. They have more openings there. And like you said, likelihood, the DH spot is going to be available and NL. So it looks like he's going to play. And like he hasn't stopped running as he's got older,

16 steals in the limited playing time last year. He's going to hurt you in batting average. But, you know, production-wise, I was just praising Scott Kingery. I don't see why Will Myers couldn't be as good as him. A minute for you, Chris, on Will Myers. Yeah, I definitely am higher on Myers than. Scott is, but I don't think, like it's not like I think he's a superstar.

I think the most likely outcome is he probably hits like 240, 250, which is basically what he's done every year of his career with the exception of that partial rookie season. However, you know, even over the last two years when he has really fallen out of favor with fantasy players, you're still looking at a guy who's average 20 homers and 20 steals per 162 games, and that's with, you know, a really low plate appearance number for that playing time. So I, yeah, I think in a roto league, he's someone who you should absolutely add, and he's going like 90 spots later than Scott Kingery. Yeah. Yeah, I don't think he's dissimilar. He's going over 100 picks later. So there you go, some value with Will Myers. Gregory Polanco,

nobody is talking about Gregory Polanco. I admit, I don't know that I've heard his name anywhere. I drafted him on my Tout Wars team two years ago. He averaged 3.2 fantasy points per game, which was the same amount as, say it with me, Chris, John Carlos Stanton. I don't hear you touting Polanco the way that you're touting John Carlos Stanton, Chris. Well, that's because you're new to the show.

And you don't know that I was the Gregory Polanco guy in the fantasy baseball industry. Yes. I think it was before last season. I can't remember. It was either, it was both 2018 and 29. And the biggest thing for it was he was a guy who, another guy who had all of the physical tools you could possibly hope for from a player.

He's athletic. He hits the ball hard. And he just hadn't quite put it together. He was another guy who needed to elevate the ball. And then he started doing that in 2018 and looked like a much better player. Then he had the shoulder injury. And that's where it comes back to for me is the shoulder injury ruined his 2019. Can he get back to what he was in 2018?

You know, when he looked like the kind of guy who belonged in that Michael Conforto, Max Kepler range, and then like the 9th, 10th round range, I think he can. I'm just, I'm wary of the shoulder. I just don't know yet. I wish we could see him healthy. Scott, he only played 42 games last year. He was looking pretty good in spring. Any love for Gregory Polanco?

Yeah, maybe Kepler is right. I don't know. More speed. Yeah, more speed. I don't know that the power potential is high. It's one of those situations. I keep waiting for him to hit for a higher batting average

because he doesn't strike out that much. But since he started elevating him or it's even less likely he's going to hit for a good batting average now in 2018 as good as it was, his XBA was only 248. So I and then you factor in the injury. risk. I have no enthusiasm for Polanco. I'll hear the argument.

He's a post-type sleeper now because nobody wants him. But I feel like I'd rather take a prospect on the verge of being promoted than get Gregory Polanco at this point myself. I have home park too. Yeah, it's not a great park. Not a great lineup either with the pirates. We got to 11. I'm not going to do Marco

Gonzalez. You can read about him. I wrote about all these players on CBSports.com. I don't think that we need to use any time on Marco Gonzalez because I want to get to our emails, but for the most part, great job. I will say. I like Markle Gonzalez. He's underrated. I don't like Marco Gonzalez. There you go. Two differing opinions. Before we get to your questions, I just want to remind everybody that. College football is inching closer, which means it's the perfect time to unveil offseason rankings. All throughout May, the Cover 3 podcast team has been counting down their preseason top 25 in separate

episodes, and this week they focused on the top five. Don't worry about a huge time commitment either. Chip Patterson and the company have been breaking down each team in their hurry-up hot seat series in under 15 minutes. Where will Clemson and Ohio State rank bringing back the top two quarterbacks in the country? Will Alabama crack the top three after losing Tua? Download and subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, and wherever else podcasts are found. Also, today was supposed to be the deadline for our intro,

competition, but we're going to extend it to when the baseball season hopefully is announced. So continue to send in your submissions. We've already received some really great ones. The last point I wanted to make. Shout out to the For the Peeps 24-Team Dynasty League, which is drafting this weekend. Some of our listeners and contributors on our Fantasy Baseball today Facebook page came up with this league to replicate Scott White's Dynasty League, and they're drafting this weekend. So shout out to those guys.

All right. Questions. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This one comes from Jet. Hey, Barry, Bobby, Bo, Bert, and Bruce. I see Barry and I see Bobby Bow next to it, even though Bobby and Bo are separated. I think of, you know,

bonds and Bonilla, of course, for the pirates. But I don't know that that's who they're going for here. I'm not sure. I was actually Googling it, and I'm still not sure. A lot of baseball results, come up, but it's just a list of names that seem unrelated to me, like Bobby Abrayu, Burt Blylevin, Bobby Bonilla, Bruce Suter. Yeah, I'm not finding anything either. Chris, if you find anything, just give us a shout.

Is it just like good baseball players from the 80s whose names start with B? Maybe. I decided to join a bestball league out of boredom while in quarantine and didn't know the best way to prep for the draft. I know the draft is the most important part of a bestball League and wanted to know certain stats or positions I should target, any advice would be greatly appreciated as I always respect your guys' views advice to help prepping for drafts in my regular points and roto leagues. Anything on bestball drafts, guys? I'm actually taking part of my first best ball baseball draft this year. Actually, donkey teeth of Razball put one together where every team drafted 45 players, I think. Oh, this was the Razlam, right?

Yeah, yeah, with a supplemental dress that are going to happen mid-season to kind of pad things. What I did in that is I totally sold out for hitters, actually. I was counting on how big the roster size is, and so maybe that makes a difference. But I totally sold out for hitters since I trust them to perform up to their expectations more and kind of leaned into the randomness of starting pitchers, figuring that basically any stable pitcher who I expect to keep his job is going to deliver good starts occasionally. And if I just have a ton of them on my bench, it'll plug in, you know, I can count on the randomness there, some not-so-great pitchers occasionally turning in good starts, and I'll have enough

each week that I'll have a good pitching outcome, if that makes sense. I don't know that I explained that very well, but that's what I did. So I've had some success playing in best ball baseball leagues the past couple of seasons. And my main piece of advice would be do not draft closers. There's just too much volatility in a league where it's just a draft and there are no waivers. So I typically load up on starting pitchers only. Don't really grab any relievers.

And the ones I've done, you know, it could be 40, 45 roster spots. I usually wind up with around 14 to 16 starting pitchers. And then the rest of my team is hitters. So just make sure to grab at least three of every infield position. And then the rest is outfield. there's usually for me, but I targeted a lot of versatile guys too. Yeah. To kind of, you know, so the, the lineup that's being automatically put together every week

has more chances to optimize. I have no idea who these five names are supposed to represent. Like, it seems pretty obvious as Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Bo Jackson, and then the other two, like, Burt Blyleven and Bruce Sutter. Yeah, but like, I could see Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Bo Jackson being related, like, as just like crazy athletes from the 70s and 80s. You know, but then I just, I'm lost on Burton Bruce. You're really, you're really messing with my head guy. Yeah.

Oh, maybe it's Bruce Chen. It's probably Bruce Chen. Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking, too. This next one's from Tori. Keep Paul DeYoung for $5 or Mark Kana for $4 in a deep 16-ish team standard roto league. I mean, if Chris is saying Kana, you know where I'm going to go. Tori also sent us an adorable video of her 19-month-old son who gets excited whenever he hears the podcast intro.

So that was awesome to see our youngest fan yet. I mean, there might be another one out there, but the youngest one I've seen. So shout out there, that was great. This is a CPT special. So I had to get this one in here, Chris, since you're here. This is from Ryan and St. Louis. He's bored during the quarantine and started thinking about if the fantasy baseball today crew were rock stars.

And here's what he came up with. Apparently I would be Pete Wentz, who is the bassist for Fallout Boy. Yeah, you sort of, like, he's got like that kind of like side cut, hair cut. Oh, I could see it with the hair. The haircut thing, okay. The undercut, yeah. Okay.

I don't think, yeah. that that that's fine Scott is Rivers Cuomo do you know who that is I do not know who that is I'm Googling it now are we either of you know who that is yes that's the vocalist for weezer the yeah the lead singer songwriter for Weezer I don't think it works Rivers Cuomo is an incredibly weird dude and I don't think like Scott's a weird dude but not in the same way Rivers Cuomo is like creepy weird Scott's not creepy weird. Thank you. I'm less creepy than this famous musician. Oh, I don't I don't really think you're creepy at all. Your your weirdness manifests itself in different ways. So no, I don't think that one works.

I think Scott is the problem is you're you're kind of low key. You're you play things slow. So I don't know. I'm thinking like a like a James Taylor maybe. Is that so I, I, What is it going? That's not an insult. I love James Taylor. I don't think it's an insult at all. Is he going for mostly an appearance thing here? Because that's mostly what you went for with Frank.

Explaining it. Or is he taking a new account? No, because Adam doesn't look like Bono. Okay. Which is the next one up. Adam's Bono, who, you know, for those out there who don't know, is the lead singer of you too. Did you not know that?

No, I did. Okay. I'm still feeling out your knowledge of popular culture. It's non-existent, Chris. Bono doesn't work for Adam, I don't think. I didn't mind it, actually. I don't know why. I guess Adam is kind of...

Adam does like attention. I've never seen him wear sunglasses indoors. So that's kind of... That's like a prerequisite for Bono. That's fair. I think you can do better than this one. There's got to be a better Adam Kump. Chris, you were Ian Grushka, Grushka. Yeah, Ian Grushka. Base player for Newfound Glory. I looked this gentleman up before, and I kind of wish that you would grow out his whenever he had this like long, blonde hair. I feel like it would be a great look for you.

So I like this one a lot. I do play bass. I've got one on my wall behind me. I love Newfound Glory. He's a chubby guy, but like a gregarious kind of chubby guy. He owns his chubbiness, as do I. And we're both from South Florida. Well, I guess I'm seeing he was born in New York, but raised in Coral Springs, the pride of South Florida in Newfound Glory. I've seen them like 12 times in concert. So you guys swap places.

Yeah, yeah. So I think that works. I'm okay with Ian Grishka. I think that one's fine. Fun fact on the Weasor Front Say It Ain't So is my go-to karaoke song, Chris. That's a good one. That's a tough one, actually. I'm looking at a picture of Ian Grushka from Twitter.

It looks like some fan shared it, or maybe he shared it, but it's a picture of him posing with some fan, a female wearing glasses, and he's like sticking out his tongue. And if you told me that was a picture of Chris Towers, I'd believe it. Yeah, yeah. And he's got a beard.

He's got stubble in this picture. It's more like the eyes and the eyebrows, which are really accentuated in this photo because of the expression he's making. Like, it could be Chris. Chris, when this whole pandemic is over, me and you are female compadres, companions. Karaoke?

We're going karaoke. Always down for karaoke. You know what my go-to song is? What do you got? I believe in a thing called love by the darkness. You don't believe it, but I can pull it off. I actually do believe it.

I could see it. I have brought the house down. And I can look forward to it. Scott, when I make my way down to Florida, we're going karaoke singing somewhere as well. Sounds good to me. All right, that'll do it for today's edition of fantasy baseball today. For Scott and Chris,

I am Frank. We'll be back again on Monday. Bye-bye.