Fantasy Baseball Today - The Next Wave of Japanese Stars w/ Yakyu Cosmopolitan! (11/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: November 25, 2025We're breaking down a loaded crop of Japanese players with special guest Yakyu Cosmopolitan (2:10)! ... Munetaka Murakami has transcendent power but struggles with strikeouts (3:56). ... What is Tatsu...ya Imai's upside as a pitcher (16:52)? ... Kazuma Okamoto is more well-rounded hitter than Murakami (28:15). ... Kona Takahashi profiles as more of a low-end streamer type (38:08). ... What are the ideal landing spots for these names (42:55)? ... Can any of these former MLB pitchers make an impact (45:07)? ... Who are some other Japanese stars we need to know for the future (47:41)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Over the past couple of years, we've had some tremendous talent come over from Japan,
and we're about to get a lot more.
Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, November 25th.
Frank Sample, here to break down the incoming stars from the NPB.
And to do that, I have a special guest joining us today.
You might know him as Yakyu Cosmopolitan.
Welcome to the show, Yuri Karasawa.
Thanks so much for hopping on, man.
Yeah, thanks for having me.
Really excited to talk about this very intriguing crop of Japanese players heading to MLB.
We were talking beforehand, and interesting is a great word for this group.
Because while we might not have a Yoshinobu Yamamoto,
that's coming over this offseason.
We have a group that looks like
to have a pretty wide range of outcomes here.
Like we could have some potential stars on our hands.
We could have some players
that potentially let us down for fantasy as well.
For those checking in and watching,
make sure you follow Yuri on X at Yak-U-C-U-C-O-K-O-K-Y-U-C-O.
That's Y-A-K-Y-U-C-O.
We're going to throw up some graphics on the screen
throughout the show if you're watching on YouTube,
and you put out tremendous work.
So covering everything Japanese baseball,
it's really, really great work that you put out there.
So we do appreciate it.
I want to give you an opportunity
just to promote anything else
that you have going on and what you're working on right now.
Yeah, over on my website,
Yaquicosmo.com.
You can find a lot of these kind of contemporary stats
on Neaphone Professional Baseball.
I know there is a lot of interest for MPB,
but maybe people don't know how to get into it.
So I put out a lot of that in English.
I also do newsletters on JPM.
Japanball.com and articles on the World Baseball Network.
Yeah, and again, on X, you put out some great graphics, some really cool stats and stuff.
A lot of things that we talk about often, you know, statcast type things, exit velocity,
pitch mix data for a lot of the pitchers that we're going to be talking about today.
So I cannot recommend following Yuri enough.
Again, that's at Yakku Cosmo on X.
Let's start with Slugger, Mutataka Morikami, 25-year-old corner infielder who was posted on November 8th,
which means he has 45 days to sign, has to be done by December 22nd.
And let's begin with the positives here.
I mean, Morikami, known for his transcendent power,
just how good is that power?
Do you have any type of exit velocities for him
and how he might stack up to some of the premier power hitters in the majors right now?
Yeah, I think it's true 80-grade raw power for Minnetaka Murakami.
this season his max EV was 116.5 based on what I have.
And that's with a dead ball in MPB.
I'm sure in MLB we're going to see him putting up like 117, 118.
Like he's right up there with your judges and Otanis and like James Woods of the world.
That's the kind of power he has.
At the WBC, he flashed this as well, 115.1, Exavilo off Merrill Kelly in the final.
And I mean, you can just tell based on things like Isol,
power, right? Like he is basically always at the very top of the league. It's just that the
swing and miss is the other side of that coin. Yeah, we'll talk about that in just a second. I mean,
just to put a few more numbers to what Morakami has done over in Japan. He set the single
season home run record in the NPP with 56 homers back in 2022. He only hit 22 home runs this past
season, but he did that in 56 games. So if you look at that isolated power, 390 ISO, the graphic on
the screen, he was, you know, 100th percentile. That was by far the highest in the NPBs. So like you
said, I mean, the exit velocities back it up, what he's done in terms of home runs and slugging
and ISO. It's all there for Morikami. If we look at the plate discipline, which you referenced,
the swing and miss, it is a mixed bag here because it looks like he has a great eye at the plate,
right? It's a career 394 on base percentage, 16% walk rate for his career. The swing and miss, though,
it is there and it is prevalent.
It's a career 25% strikeout rate,
but that has been up over 28%
each of the previous three years
with very high swinging strike rates as well.
I've seen some troubling stats
just in terms of like in zone contact rate,
some kind of like differing stats and opinions
on whether or not he can hit high velocity,
but I've seen some people tweet that like his numbers
against high velocity are particularly bad as well.
So do you think he'll be able to make enough
contact for that power to matter for us in fantasy and in the majors?
I think from a slugging standpoint, absolutely yes.
Enough to reliably maintain like a batting average over 2.30 to 40, maybe not.
He did have the worst in zone contact rate in MPB this past year.
And actually, even if you go back to 2023, it is the worst among all qualifiers.
So there is some sort of adjustment necessary.
Also in the third percentile and swinging strike rate.
which is not great.
Chase rate is well above average.
He is sometimes susceptible to getting kind of antsy at the plate
and swinging through like a bad pitch for strike one
or maybe chasing outside trying to protect with two strikes.
But I think his spin recognition is pretty solid.
He does walk a lot.
Obviously, as one of the most feared hitters in the league,
a lot of pitchers are going to pitch around him.
In 2022, he had a ton of intentional walks
when he hit the 56 homers,
the record for a Japanese-born player,
So yeah, I mean, I think the OVP floor is like decently high,
but because he's going to have a much lower average
that kind of adds a little bit of risk to the profile.
Something I haven't seen about him,
and I don't even know if I would be able to find it just on any website.
I know baseball reference kind of has like surface level stats
for players that are in Japan,
but how has he fared against left-handed pitching
and do you think that he'll be a full-time player in the majors?
Yeah, he absolutely should be a full-time player.
this is not a platoon bat.
He actually has kind of reverse splits over the past three seasons at least.
He has a 930 OPS with a 27% K rate, 33% width rate versus lefties, but an 846 OPS, a 30% K rate,
and a 37% width rate versus rightease, again, dating back to 2023.
So just a little bit better across the board versus lefties.
And that's not to say that he's necessarily going to be reverse splits in MLB, but this is a guy
they can hit both-handedness.
Where does he play on defense?
Because I've also kind of heard
some mixed things about this as well.
I know he's played both first and third base.
Actually, more third base in Japan
than actually at first base.
But to my knowledge, the defensive metrics
are really, really bad.
So where do you think he plays in the majors
on defense?
Or no defense.
Maybe it's just DH.
I do think the long-term outlook is DH.
An important note about MPB Central League
is that they don't have a DH yet.
is coming in 2027, but he's played his entire career without the DH rule, so he's had to play
defense. He was drafted as a catcher, but quickly moved to the corners on the infield. And,
you know, when he was a little bit skinnier early in his career, I think he was all right at it,
but as he's kind of balked up and become this hulking slugger, I just don't think he's
particularly good at the hot corner. It's a career negative 92 defensive run saved at third.
So think of like an even worse version of like, you know, Raphael Devers for
instance, right? So I do think with his little experience at first base, he could become a first
base option for you. He also played a one game in right field this year. I don't really foresee that
being a thing. But yeah, I don't really think third base is his long term home, although he might
play it enough. It played enough on like the right team. You know, you could play in a pinch and then
he keeps third base eligibility for fantasy purposes if that happens. Yeah, it's an interesting note.
I didn't know that in that Central League, they don't have a DH.
So that does add a little bit of a level of unknown because, you know, some players,
I mean, he's played defense his whole career.
He might just be used to that, right?
I mean, there is kind of a transition period for players who have played defense their whole life,
you know, guys that just become a DH later on in their careers like Stanton and, you know,
Devers, we saw play a lot of DH this past season as well.
So that does kind of add a little bit of an unknown there.
I mean, do you think he would handle something like that well
if he's asked to not play defense at all
and just kind of DH for whatever team signs him?
I do think the better transition for him
would be to kind of split time between DH and say first
or give him a few reps at third
just to kind of experiment with him.
I don't think really saying,
okay, you're going to be a DH at age 26
from the very beginning of your MLB career to the end.
Maybe that's not the best thing.
But again, I think if we're looking
at the long-term future,
he projects more like a DH because, I mean, quite frankly, his value is almost entirely with the bat.
Gotcha. So look, just talking through this, it feels like, again, for a few of these players,
Moracami has this wide range of outcomes, right? The low end is that he just swings and misses so much that he
becomes unplayable, just anywhere, just because he, you know, just can't make contact and the batting
average is so low. The high end is that, you know, he can become one of the premier power bats in
Major League Baseball. I mean, based on the exit
velocities and the ISOs and just
the home runs that he has hit in
when you put it in context of like this
dead ball dead ball period in Japan.
It really is impressive what he's done
in your heart of hearts.
What do you think
Morikami becomes at the Major League level?
I think like an 80th,
90th percentile outcome for him
is that he is your next Nick
Kurtz, Raphael Devers, Matt Olson,
Max Muncie, you know, the list goes
on. One of the best sluggers in the
I think, a guy that's going to put up like, you know, a peak 950,000 OPS even, like 50 homers.
That is the kind of power this guy possesses.
The 50th percentile outcome is probably more in that, I don't know, Joey Gallo, Miguel
Sinoe territory, you know, where they are still by, you know, WRC plus, maybe 5, 10 percent above
league average, but he's a three-true outcome machine.
The K rate's going to be over 30 percent, offset slightly by the walks.
But again, the average is going to be very, very low.
And then anything below that is like you're getting into like the very bad Joey Gallo seasons type territory.
But again, this is one of the most prodigious sluggers to come out of Japan ever.
He is a true generational talent.
And the fact that he is only going to be 26 in his first major league season means that he will be afforded time to to adjust.
He hasn't really had to make adjustments in Japan because why would you when you're OPSing almost 1,000 every year, right?
So I think he has the ability to do that.
Yeah, and excuse me if you said this earlier, I didn't hear you say it,
but I was watching one of your videos on YouTube,
and you pointed out that the last time there was a slugger of this level
coming out of Japan with in-zone contact rates this low, it was Shohei Otani.
Now, I don't want to make the Otani comp, right?
Like, nobody is Shohei Otani.
Obviously, like, Morikami's not going to pitch or anything like that.
But, you know, there were some doubts about Otani's bat when he came over to the majors.
I mean, everyone kind of references.
that like,
anonymous scout from the Jeff Passon article
that,
you know,
didn't think that Otani could hit at all.
But it is somewhat reassuring to know that
we had a player like this come over from Japan
in terms of swing and miss in the zone,
transcendent power,
and it turned out to be Otani.
So I'm not saying Morikami is going to be Otani,
but we do have an example of this working out
for at least one other player.
Yes,
the closest comp you can make out of MPB
is indeed Otani,
because you look at the end zone contact rates
for guys like, you know, say a Suzuki, which is up to like 90%, and Murakami's all the way down at 73%.
And also, you previously mentioned some concerns against velocity.
Murakami does have a 37% K rate in his career against 93 plus mile per hour fastballs.
But it's a smaller sample, of course.
And Otani actually had worse numbers against high Velo in MPB.
So this isn't just like a black and white, like, cut and dry thing of like, oh, he didn't hit Velo in MPB.
he's never going to. Again, the adjustment period's there. And in terms of power, in terms of
just raw pop, Murakami's right there with Otani. All right. Let's hit our first break.
Before we do that, make sure to hit the like button and subscribe to the channel for a bunch of
off-season fantasy baseball content. Let's take that break and we'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. We are here with Yuri Karasawa, who you can follow
on X at Yakuku Cosmo. And we are here to talk about the incoming star.
from the NPB, and there are quite a few.
Let's move on to the top pitcher that's coming over this offseason.
That is Tatsuya I-Mai.
And if you're looking up that name, the last name is spelled I-M-A-I.
Tatsuya-I-27-year-old starting pitcher was posted on November 18th just last week.
He has until January 2nd to sign.
And looking at his career, he's been really good in the NPB over the past four years,
but he took it to another level this past season, a 192 ERA, a point.
8-9 whip over a strikeout per inning.
He ranked first in batting average against.
He was tied for first and whip.
He was second and fifth.
He was third in K-minus walk rate.
From a macro level, how good is Tatsuya Imi?
How does he compare to some of the other Japanese pitchers
that have come over in recent years,
the Yoshinobu Yamamoto's or Shotaimaima-Khodai Sengas of the world?
He is around the Kodai Senga tier for talent,
but I would say he's more durable.
Now, he doesn't have the same resume or peak to warrant like a Yoshinov Yamamoto comparison,
but he clearly has higher upside than, say, Imanaga or Sugano or Kikuchi.
And as you mentioned, he took it to a whole new level with a career year in 2025.
Honestly, for him to have an 089 whip, given his command problems early in his career,
almost unthinkable before.
He's made really big strides in his game.
His hip prevention was just absolutely elite.
and when it comes to how EMI profiles in MLB with this free agent class,
like he's right up there with Dylan Sees and Framber Valdez,
I think is one of the top three free agent pitchers.
So I'm not sure, I should have asked you this before.
I'm not sure if you follow Major League Baseball,
just closely enough on a daily level or over the past couple of years,
but would you, you said he's in that mix with those guys?
Would you rank him as the top free agent pitcher this off season?
Would you rank them ahead of like a Framber Valdez or Dillon C's?
I believe I would.
I think it comes down to if you take the higher ceiling or the higher floor.
Now, a guy like Valdez who's proven to be so reliable with his command and soft contact,
like you probably like the safety of that.
But in terms of strikeout upside, in terms of, you know,
this guy can develop into a number two or the ace of your staff,
a guy that you really want to give the ball to in the postseason,
I think IMAI is probably the number one option right now.
All right, what can you tell us about his pitch mix and pitch characteristics?
It looks like he sits 95 miles per hour with a fastball,
pretty diverse pitch mix.
And I've heard the great Enosaris mentioned that Imi pitches from a lower arm slot
kind of has this, you know, Joe Ryan release point.
It's very Joe Ryan-esque, except he throws harder than Joe Ryan.
So, I mean, I feel like when everyone heard that,
it was like at first pitch Arizona a couple weeks ago,
this fantasy baseball conference,
Eno was kind of raving about Tatsuya EMI.
You know, when you hear Joe Ryan with more velocity,
your ears kind of perk up,
although I guess EMI probably doesn't have the same level of control
that's someone that, like, Joe Ryan does.
But what can you tell us about his pitch mix
and some of those characteristics?
Yeah, and the interesting thing about his fastball
is that in MPV, against, say, the bottom of the order,
he was lowering that velo down to like 91-92 because he knew that he didn't really need to throw hard to get
out there. But in high-leverage situations with runners-in-scoring position, he was topping out at 98-99 pretty
regularly. So he does have that in him. I'm sure he's not going to be really below 95. In MLB, he's going to
have shorter outings. In Japan, it's very common for a guy to go a complete game. So he's trying to kind
pace himself for 125 pitches on a six-man rotation once a week. But in MLB, if he's doing just five, six innings,
then I think he can very much sit 96 plus miles per hour.
The vertical break on the pitch is not great,
but from that lower slot and then that arm side run he gets on the pitch,
it really plays up with that kind of vertical approach angle.
And then it pairs super well with this unique, short kind of reverse gyro slider that he has,
which is something that he purposely kind of pitch designed and tweaked a few years ago.
It used to have more sweep to it,
but he's made this adjustment because he believes that it tunnels better with his fastball.
And you can see that in the numbers.
I mean, he had a 53% width rate on that pitch against righties, a 40% called strike plus
width rate.
So just a truly elite pitch against same-handed hitters.
And in fact, against righties, he is 93% fastball slider.
So he basically is just those two pitches against righties.
Against lefties, that's where he has to, you know, kind of mix and match a little bit.
But still, he can throw that slider in there.
Like it's not something that you can only use against righties.
He had a 36% width rate and a 38% CSW versus lefties in 2025, which is very good,
despite the lower usage.
And then he has a change up, a splitter, a Vulcan change that he added late in the year,
and then a curve ball that's a little bit in the high 70s range.
He's probably going to tinker with that a little bit in MLB.
But the changeup was a great ground ball pitch for him.
He got a lot more comfortable with the splitter.
So yeah, I mean, his best two pitches by far are that fastball and that slider,
but he made big strides in the change up in the splitter,
and that's really what helped him manage his splits against lefties better in 2025.
Yeah, that's exactly where I was going next,
is are those pitches good enough to neutralize lefties,
but it sounds like, based on what you're saying there,
that they got to a level where obviously they were,
because, you know, his numbers were so tremendous this past season.
Do you buy the improvements that Imai has made with his control over the past four years?
he's dropped his walk rate from 13.8%,
which is, I mean, that is untenable basically as a starting pitcher
to 11.4%, 9.8%, and then a career best 7% walk rate in 2025.
That feels like something that if it does regress at all
heading into the majors, that could cause some pretty major problems for him.
Imai was very much in that effectively wild territory for the majority of his MPB career.
But as you mentioned, his walk rate has improved in five consecutive seasons and by pretty wide margin.
And I think I buy into it because there's been very clear mechanical adjustments.
He's lowered the slot.
He's kind of simplified the delivery.
And I will say, like I said, Dakota Senga, he's in that tier of pitcher.
like Senga also have these kind of command issues.
Now, could we see it kind of go back up?
Absolutely.
Like, I don't think he has, like, necessarily elite command by any means.
It's more like just control over command and just being able to throw more strikes for him was huge.
And also, there will be a slight adjustment period with the NLB ball because the MPB ball has higher seams.
It's slightly smaller and it comes pre-tapped.
So a lot of pitchers, including Senga, said it took in multiple months to really get a feel for that pitch.
And also, IMAI got a lot of chase outside the zone
was just getting guys to swing at a lot of balls.
That's just based on how he uses that slider, say,
going down and away to Ritey's.
So he probably can even increase the zone rate a little bit more.
Definitely has it in him.
But I would say, you know, be a little bit cautionary
about the 7% walk rate.
It would probably be a little bit higher in MLB.
Yeah, you mentioned that the delivery for him, too,
when I was watching highlights super smooth.
It just looked like, you know, there was no added movement or anything.
It didn't look like a struggle at all.
It was just boom, fluid, smooth delivery there for Tetsuya Imi.
But based on what you're saying here, maybe the walk rate creeps up a little bit.
So for those pitching in, playing in Roto or category leagues,
perhaps the whip is on a little bit of a higher side there for Tetsuya Imi.
What about the innings projection?
Is he a workhorse type?
Has he dealt with any injuries in the past?
If you just had to project an innings total
heading into next season,
what would you expect from Tatsuya Imi?
I wouldn't necessarily call him a workhorse,
but he has been very durable in four of his past five seasons.
If you look at his baseball reference,
someone might look at 2023 and see a slightly lower innings total,
but that's actually because he had a temporary assignment to the minors
because he was working on some issues.
But he can definitely get into that 160 inning territory.
The main issue with any Japanese starter going over to MLB is adjusting to a five-man rotation.
In Japan, you have your day of the week.
You only throw once a week, basically, and you get 25, 26 starts throughout the season.
Now, a team like the Dodgers has kind of solved this by just basically doing a six-man of their own.
But if IMA is going to be asked to pitch on a five-man, then you might have to skip him a start every now and then just to make sure that he's not getting overly fatigued.
You know, you mentioned the Dodgers there.
One thing I wanted to bring up with IMAI is this quote that came out recently
where he said he doesn't want to play for the Dodgers.
He wants to play against the Dodgers.
He doesn't want to join forces with Otani and Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.
He wants to face those guys.
He wants to beat them.
So I hear that and I just think, gamer.
Like, yes, that's the guy that I want on my team.
If I'm a Yankees fan, so obviously, like, I would love to have him on the Yankees.
I don't know if, you know, he'll be within their price range for this offseason.
But yeah, that's really cool.
You know, just thinking about somewhere like the San Francisco Giants is a great environment to pitch in.
I think that would be really cool or Chicago Cubs, something like that.
So we'll see where Tatsuya Imai lands this offseason.
I ask you a similar question about Morikami, right?
If you're just looking at, you know, your baseline expectation, your 50th percentile projection for Emai,
is that as a SP3 at the major league level?
And then, you know, his 80th percentile, this is like a really good SP2.
and then like if it all works out, you know,
pie in the sky is, you know, he's an SP1 at the major league level.
Absolutely.
And I mentioned this when talking about him in comparison to like a Valdez,
but IMA is definitely more of the high ceiling with a slightly lower floor.
And we've seen this at times with Sena, right?
Guys that have these kind of command issues can obviously run into weeks where he just doesn't
have it.
But I think if you enter the season with him as your SP3, you feel really good.
feel pretty okay if he's your SB 2.
And then he has ace upside for sure, maybe not immediately in 2026, but definitely down
the line.
This guy could develop into an ace.
He's only going to be entering his age 28th season.
And yeah, especially if he continues this trend of, you know, improving the command and the
secondaries, the splits to lefties, then IMA is just a super exciting talent.
And the market is picking up Steam as well.
His overall average draft position so far is 237 over at the.
NFBC, but over the past week, it's up to 179.
So I think partially people hearing, you know, Saris talk glowingly about Tatsugi Imi,
hearing people like you talk about him, probably getting them more excited as well.
And I think once we see him sign, too, if it winds up being in a really good park with a good
defense behind him, if he goes to San Fran or Chicago, I think that number could probably go up
even higher there for Tatsuya Imi.
Let's move back to the infield
and talk about another corner infielder
Kazima Okamoto for those
searching for the name here.
It's O-K-A-M-O-T-O.
29 years old, posted last week on November 21st,
has until January 4th to get a deal done.
A very different player than Morakami
who we spoke about earlier,
much more of a well-balanced hitter
coming off a season where he hit 327,
only 15 home runs,
but it was in 69 games.
In OPS over 1,000,
He had the same number of walks as strikeouts.
And among NPB hitters with at least 250 plate appearances,
Okamoto ranked first in OPS and first in WRC Plus.
How do you think Okamoto's bat will translate to the Major League level?
It should be a smoother transition than Murakami, right?
His hit tool, I think, is genuinely good.
He only struck out 11% of the time this year.
He had a 90% in-zone contact, which is much more in that, say, a Suzuki territory in MPB.
You know, long-term outlook, three, four years down the line is questionable because of the age.
Obviously, you know, with bat speed slowing down, like if he's entering age 33, 34, you don't know.
But in the short term, I say he profiles as like an 800 OPS, you know, with 25 to 30 bombs.
Like that's the kind of upside that Okamoto has.
And he is also the first position player ever posted in Yomiuri Giants history.
So he has a lot of that expectations on him.
He played, you know, alongside Murakami at the WBC.
They're very good friends.
They both are, you know, basically the same position as well.
So they're going to be compared to each other a lot.
But it is quite different profiles, even though they're both sluggers.
I've read that same thing about the Yomiuri Giants, not really posting players.
I mean, to the best of your knowledge, why now, right?
Like, why did they post Okamoto when this is something that they haven't really done before?
There might not be an answer, but I guess if you just wanted to speculate, like,
Why now?
Yeah, it's interesting, White, right?
I think a big reason for that is that he was set to hit international free agency next year.
So now that you post him, you can get a pretty hefty posting fee should he sign a giant contract.
And they've done it with pitchers in the past.
I mean, they initially broke from their anti-posting policy in 2019 with Shun Yamaguchi, who ended up going to Toronto.
Then they did it in 2020 with Sugano, but then Sugano didn't sign waited four more years until he became a free.
agent and eventually went to Baltimore.
But yeah, I mean, Okamoto has been the captain of Yomiri as well.
So definitely kind of a change in that franchise's policy to let him go.
How much do you trust the power here for Okamoto?
I know you just mentioned, you know, could be 25 to 30 home runs.
He started his career with six straight seasons of 30 plus home runs over in Japan,
including one season with 41, another with 39.
So it feels like he kind of does have that, you know, upper end power.
If we're trying to dream of like the upside possibilities here.
You know, do you have anything on exit velocities here?
Is he more of like a pulled air percentage kind of hitter?
What do you think the power lands on Okamoto?
Yeah, it is more in that like pull air like profile.
Like it's very good his power.
It was a 112 max EV is what I have for him in 2025.
But it's definitely not Murakami level.
His biggest asset in MPB, as he alluded to, was consistency with, you know,
all those consecutive years of 30 plus bombs.
It's also important to mention that MPB, the full season, is 143 games as opposed to 162 in MLB.
So obviously you put that over, you know, a longer season and he was consistently more in that 35 range.
And, yeah, I mean, I think in 2025, he was on pace for 31 over a full season.
He missed three months after a collision at first base.
He ended up with an elbow injury there.
But same as Murakami.
they've both been incredibly durable up until this year.
Then Marikami had that oblique injury, Okamoto with that elbow injury.
So they both kind of had very similar seasons, funnily enough,
as they are about to go to MLB with the missing two to three months of the season.
How is the defense for Okamoto?
Because we spoke about Morikami and obviously the defense was pretty worrisome for him.
Where do you think Okamoto winds up playing in the majors?
His defense is definitely better than Murakami.
Okamoto's not going to be a DH.
I think, but it's still not like great.
I would say it's more like fine.
He could be flexible between like first base, third base, left field.
He has pretty ample experience in all those spots in NPB, which I think boosts his value,
even if he's only average to below average at those spots.
But again, much like with Murakami, the main value with Okamoto is with the bat.
And I do think he is a pretty big, a pretty good bet to get to a lot of game power because
you know, as we said, like his pull air percentage in MPB is incredibly high.
He actually has the best air percent.
So just, you know, any bad at ball that's not a grounder since 2021.
He leads all of MPB at 67%.
All right.
That's pretty good.
Yeah, that reminds me a little bit of like an East Hawk Paratus type.
That's just really good at, you know, pulling the ball to left field there as a right-handed bat.
So, you know, the bat would play really well in Houston, but unfortunately they already have a pretty full infield.
So I don't think that's going to happen.
but I think another team or ballpark like that would probably work out pretty well for Okamoto.
Do you have a player comp here?
What are you thinking for what Okamoto could be right away?
Because again, it's not like Morikami where we're kind of like projecting forward, like maybe, you know, a couple of years from now what he can become.
He's in his prime right now.
So, you know, what kind of player do you think he could be?
Yeah, as you mentioned, he's in his prime right now.
And since 2023, his WRC plus is 180 as opposed to Murakami at 162.
He has been the better player than Murakami over the past three seasons, at least.
Of course, if you go back one more year, then Murakami had that crazy 225 WRC plus season.
So Okamoto's ceiling is definitely not quite there, but I think he has a higher floor.
And you can describe him as maybe a less athletic version of Sayas Suzuki.
I do think, even though this sounds like a pretty simplistic comparison with both of them being Japanese,
like if you look at the swing profile, their stats in MPB, they are very similar.
that Okamoto is going over at a slightly later age.
You could also throw in like Christian Walker during like some of his better years.
That's the kind of production you might be able to get from Okamoto if everything clicks and he adjusts.
Hey, that sounds good to me.
I mentioned a couple weeks ago we were out at a fantasy baseball conference in Arizona and I did a way too early draft.
And 15 team league, I took Okamoto in round 22 just because I was pretty weak at corner infield.
and I needed to kind of take a shot on some upside.
And to be honest, I didn't know much about him
outside that he was coming over.
And he's a more complete hitter than Morakami.
But yeah, I'm pretty happy now to have him at that cost.
I'm pretty sure it's only going to go up from here.
Just to give you a little bit of context,
Morikami went in round 12 of that draft.
And again, I got Okamoto in round 22.
So pretty sizable difference there
between where they're going in really early drafts right now.
Let's take our final break,
winter return. We have one more name to talk about
Kona Tanahashi,
Takahashi, excuse me, and then we'll talk about some idea
landing spots. I have some other
former Major League pitchers that are looking to
make their return. Can we get some impact there?
We'll talk about all that right after
this. Welcome back in
Fantasy Baseball today. We
are here with
Yuri Karasawa at
Yakukosmo, Yakyu Cosmopolitan.
For those who follow him,
you already know, puts out great work,
covering baseball over in Japan.
and we are breaking down some bigger name players that are coming over this offseason.
And next up we have Kona Takahashi, who is another starting pitcher.
He's 28 years old.
He also was posted last week on November 21st, so he has until January 4th to get a deal done.
Very different pitcher than Tetsu Imi from earlier.
More so pitches to contact, better control.
He gets ground balls this past season, a 304 ERA, a 123 whip.
5.4 K-per-9. So I will ask you, is there enough pitchability, veteran savvy? Is there a wide enough
pitch mix to make this work in the majors? The funny thing is that a couple years ago,
Takahashi was the ace of the Saitama Saba-Bou lions, but Imae has definitely surpassed him.
I would say for Takahashi, he's not going to make it an MLB without major changes. And I think he
knows this. He's also a bigger guy at 6-2 compared to
Imae, who's more like 511, throws from a high three-quarter slot.
He's pretty standard.
He's pretty stock.
He's not really that unique Takahashi.
But he does have a deep arsenal, very willing to learn.
He's expressed MLB aspirations for multiple seasons.
He went to drive line in 2023, increased his average fastball velocity from like 9091 to
even 93, 94, up to 97 at times.
So Takahashi, when it comes to how he profiled.
in MLB, you're looking at a potential swing man or number five at best in his current state.
Got you. So that kind of reminds me a little bit of what we got from Sugano this past season,
Tomoyuki Sugano. Is that a just fair player comp? It was low strikeouts. He was a streamer type for
fantasy, he used them in the right matchups. He had a stretch where he pitched well, but he also,
you know, had a bunch of rough starts where he got blown up too. You'd think that's a fair comp for
Takahashi coming over?
They're quite different, at least in terms of the points of career that they're at.
Obviously, with Sugano being 35, being really a legend for Japanese baseball and having so many Samaura awards under his belt,
I think with Takahashi, it's more of a project.
That's maybe like Sugano is kind of like who he could be if he makes changes.
So I would definitely say in terms of what you're looking at right now, it's lower than even Sugano.
All right. So I guess we can take a quick look here and talk about the pitch mix and the characteristics.
You mentioned it's a diverse pitch mix and he's kind of up the velocity the past couple of seasons.
But what are we actually working with here with Kona Takahashi?
Yeah, his fastball against 693, which is, you know, by MPB standards, well above average.
It has dead zone kind of shape, though.
It used to have a bit more of like sinking action that got him a lot of grounders.
Maybe if he, you know, works on throwing more, say, just pure sinkers or two seams in MLB, that could definitely help him.
It just didn't get him any swinging strikes this year, especially against lefties, which was a big problem for him.
His splitter, his slider, his cutter are decent secondaries, but none of them really jump off the page.
And again, with the deadball environment, a 3.04 ERA is actually a little bit below league average.
I mean, that's how pitching heavy MPB is right now.
But again, when it comes to Takahashi, he's shown that he really wants to take on this challenge.
And I think when you look at a potential pitching savvy organization, a team that could really kind of change his shapes, you know, you're talking about a guy that has the right frame, the right ability with his velocity and such.
So, you know, you could mold him into like a back end starter.
Gotcha. All right. Again, that's Kona Takahashi, who sounds like he could work his way more or so into like a streamer type for fantasy, use them in the right matchups.
I didn't prep you for this. I guess I'll put you on the spot. But if we're just ranking the three names that we spoke about for next year in fantasy for redraft leagues, how would you rank them in terms of the order you would draft them?
Is it like Imaya at the top, Okamoto and then Morikami? What are you thinking for those three just next season?
It would be Imai at the top. I think I would still go.
go for Murakami over Okamoto only because of just the pure potential, right?
I think if you're trying to play it safe, then again, I think Okamoto's transition will be smoother.
He's more of the plug-in-play player.
But with Murakami, you're getting 40 to 45 Homer upside.
Like he could just show up and, again, become, you know, like almost like a Nick Kurtz type.
So I think with Murakami, that's just like too good to pass up on.
He is a generational talent.
But he's pretty close with Okamoto for at least 2026.
All right, let's talk ideal landing spots for these four, and I just hope it's not the Dodgers.
Like, maybe they wind up with one of these guys, but gosh, I mean, they have just, they have obviously
dominated baseball the past couple of years with all this influx of talent.
And, you know, Roki Sasaki's first season was obviously, you know, up and down, mostly down,
dealing with like injuries and mechanics and things like that.
But, you know, found his way in the postseason and big help out of the bullpen and things.
So, look, I think they could be in the mix for some of these.
these guys, but what do you think for an ideal landing spot on all four of these names?
Morikami, Tatuya Imai, Okamoto, and Kona Takahashi.
I think Imi has a ton of suitors. I mean, basically, any team that has the budget for him
should be in on him. The Giants, the Blue Jays, the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Padres, the Cubs,
like all these teams, I'm sure I'm missing a few too. Like, he could, again, he can be
an SB3, like, pretty confidently, I think, and then he could even develop into an SB2.
So I think I Mai is going to probably get even more money than people are expecting.
Like if the projection on him is $140, $150 million, he might go all the way up to like $180 plus.
With Murakami, it's, again, because of the volatility, it's kind of hard to project him.
I've seen estimates for him down in like the $80 million range and some others like $160 plus.
He probably, if there's a bidding war for him, that's obviously going to go up.
Murakami based on like defensive limitations, maybe has.
has slightly fewer bits, but Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Padres,
like these are, you know, I think decent landing spots for him.
The Dodgers, you know, if they could figure it out with like Muncie and Freeman
and then Otani already taken up DH, like I think it's going to be very difficult for them,
but you never know with the Dodgers.
You always have to throw them in the ring.
And then, yeah, with Okamoto, it's pretty similar, I would say, like both of the New York teams.
the Mariners, the Angels, the Padres.
And then with Takahashi, I would throw in like,
Brewer's, raise, Red Sox, like teams that have shown the ability to kind of transform a pitcher.
Other names to quickly mention, we've got some former Major League pitchers
looking to make their return.
And we have Anthony Kay, who was a former first round pick by the Mets,
Foster Griffin, a former first round pick by the Royals,
John Duplontier, former third round pick by the D.E.,
e-backs and DuPontier actually just had a tremendous season. They all did, but I mean, his numbers in
particularly at a 32% strikeout rate over in the NPB. Do you think any of these names can carve out
enough of a role to make an impact for fantasy returning to the majors, whether that's, you know,
a low-end starter, like a SP5 for maybe a bad team that's just trying to catch lightning in a
bottle or maybe a really good reliever or, you know, backhead closer type?
We've seen guys make their return from MPB, KBO, and have quite a bit of a bit of
success, right? Like, I know people aren't that high on Miles Michaelis anymore, but check out the
first season he had in St. Louis. Or look at Nick Martinez, the kind of role that he's carved
out there in San Diego and then Cincinnati. I'm very high on Foster Griffin myself. I think he has
like four or five starter upside, very high pitch ability, very good at managing his splits. He has three
different fastballs. He has a sweeper to lefties, change up to righties, and he was commanding the
ball very well. Some injury concerned there. He did miss some time in 2020.
But yeah, I think Griffin as like a sneaky dark horse to become like a five-starter on a team would be good.
A K is a really good ground ball pitcher.
He actually had the best ground ball percentage in MPB amongst starters this season at 57%.
Very good sinker.
The strikeout rate was a little bit lower.
But part of that is when you're pitching in deadball MPB, you don't really need to go for strikeout.
And you actually see a lot of times based on just the difference in playing style, the guys can raise their strikeout rates in MLV.
even against higher competition.
So he's probably like a potential swing man as well.
DuPlanter, I sort of expect him to stay in Japan for another year
just because he had an injury in August that kind of kept him out
until all the way until the postseason.
But he has a deep mix and really improved his command greatly.
Like, you know, with his numbers in AAA and such,
he always had the strikeout upside.
But with that like hard sweeper of his in the curb ball,
he was doing a lot of great stuff as a starter for the Hunting Tigers.
as you mentioned, 32% strikeout rate.
I mean, that's better than even like Tatsia IMAe,
let MPB in that category as well as called strike plus whiff rate
for a minimum of 90 innings pitched.
But yeah, I mean, he could definitely be like a five as well
if he wants to go back to MLB.
Yeah, I didn't prep you for this question either,
so I'll kind of filibuster a little bit.
The future, what does the future hold for Japanese baseball,
the NPB?
Are there any other names coming over in the next couple of seasons
that we need to maybe know now and follow for next year?
year and you know these are going to be the names that we're talking about next off
season we were talking beforehand it was really funny uh fran mill reis was just the home run king
over in the npb and i i remember you know covering him here for fantasy and he was a really
fun player for for a while there for the guardians and then kind of uh phased out so it's it's
it's nice to hear that he's doing well over in the n pb but uh is there another wave of stars coming
soon that maybe we need to know about for the future um for you know years to come yeah absolutely
Like this influx of Japanese talent is not ending anytime soon.
Though I will say it's mostly going to be like pitchers from this point forward.
Like Murakami and Okamoto were by far the two best like hitting talents right now.
So it's probably going to be a little bit longer until you get like a really good hitter going back to going over to MLB.
But when it comes to pitchers, you have Hiromi Ito for the Hokkaido-Nipone handfighters who just won the Salomura Award, you know, almost 200 innings pitch.
almost 200 strikeouts. He, to me, is the protejata, U. Darvish. He has 12, 13 different pitches.
Wow. It's really good vert on his fastball, which sits 93 plus. He even throws an ephist,
which is fun for a lot of people. Hiromi Ito, I think, in MLB could be a mid-rotation starter.
There's also Shunpita Yamashita. It's going to be a while until you see him. He's only 22 years old,
but he is up to 99 to 100 on the fastball. And his splitter and, his splitter,
and curveball are absolutely diabolical.
To me, Shempete Yamashita Yamashita
reminds me of Shohai Otani
as a pitcher. That's the kind of talent that guy possesses.
So years down the line,
I think Shumpete Yamashita Yamashita could become one of the
best to do it in MLB.
Kaimata'i's teammate,
Konatakaashi's teammate. He is,
was a closer this past year,
a very short pitcher, but great kind of vertical
approach angle, up to 98 miles per hour.
And he's moving back into the rotation
in 2026, a role that he was
previously doing in
2023. I think
Kama Taira would be a very interesting
pickup for an MLD team
a couple years down the line.
And yeah, I mean, I could keep going on.
There's Hiroyo Miyagi for the Orix
Buffaloes. There's Heroto Psyche for the
Hanchin Tigers, Hiroto Takahashi for the
Chunichi Dragons, Atuki Taniichi for the Likti
Marines. But I'll stop there. Let's just say there's a lot
of great potential pitchers that might
have success in MLB one day. You know what?
It sounds like we're going to have ourselves quite a world
Baseball Classic once again, right?
With all the talent that's already here, Otani and Yamamoto, I guess they haven't,
actually you just saw Otani did confirm that he's going to play for Team Japan.
I assume they all will, but yeah, World Baseball Classic is going to be pretty awesome.
Are you going to be covering that event at all?
Yeah, I plan to cover certainly the Tokyo pool stage of it.
So, you know, the first four games for Japan.
And then, yeah, I mean, 2023 WBC, I think, blew up, at least on,
the like the western side of things. I mean the WBC's always been huge in Asia but I'm super glad that
like you're getting big commitments for USA and other countries like this is going to be a great
tournament to watch. Yeah I mean look they're calling in the big guns now right they've got judge
coming to play. They got Bobby Wood Jr. also committed to play for team USA so uh yeah and just the drama
too last time right when we had O'Tani versus Mike Trout to end the WBC I mean that was tremendous
tremendous stuff. So it should be a lot of fun. Let's hope and pray for no injuries too, because
like from a fantasy perspective, when we had the Edwin Diaz thing, that was just, it was just
like really, really terrible. So hope that it's a clean WBC and obviously a really fun one
next season. But yeah, that's coming in probably like late February, early March next year. So
everyone can look forward to the World Baseball Classic. Thanks again to Yuri Kurosawa for
coming on here today. We appreciate you. Again, everyone go follow his work on X at
Yaku Cosmo. That's Y-A-K-Y-U-C-O-S-M-O. And once again, just give you an opportunity to promote everything
that you got going on and hopefully everyone goes to check it out. Yeah, you can find me on my website,
yakukovmo.com. I'm also on X at Yaqui-Cosmo. That's where I do most of my stuff. I'm on
Japanball.com for weekly newsletters covering Neapum Professional Baseball in English. I do
articles for the World Baseball Network.
And then just to throw it in there, because I forgot to while I was talking about all
those guys going to MLB, Terraraki Sato is the one hitter you should keep an eye on.
I have his jersey back there.
He's a slugger, kind of a Murakami type.
Yeah, I appreciate you throwing those names out there too, because there are a lot of
fantasy baseball sickos out there that play in like these open universe dynasty leagues where,
you know, they can pick up players that are in Japan now and just kind of stash them before
they come over. So that could be helpful for the real, like, diehard dynasty players out there.
And names that we do need to know for future seasons. I mean, just again, the way things have worked
out and the talent that Japan is currently developing. It's been really fun to watch a lot of those
names come over and dominate in the ways that they have. We are going to wrap there for Yuri.
I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave
a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow.
Bye-bye.
Paramount Podcasts.
