Fantasy Baseball Today - The State of Pitching, Pitchers to Buy & Early Season Busts! (5/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: May 29, 2023Pitching has stabilized so far in May (1:26). ... Which pitchers should you look to buy-low on (8:36)? ... What do we do with Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah (17:54)? Is it time to drop Jose Abreu (25:20)...? ... What about Andres Gimenez (30:30)? ... What's going on with Trea Turner, Willy Adames and Tim Anderson (34:52)? ... Why is Austin Riley's power down (46:00)? ... Will Julio Rodriguez pick it up (50:35)? ... Who will lead the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers in saves rest of season (58:47)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Where fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
We're about a third into the season,
which means it's time to answer those tough questions.
Welcome in to Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Memorial Day.
I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White.
Today on the show, we're going to get into the nitty gritty.
What to do with Alec Manoa and Jose Abraeu?
Will guys like Trey Turner and Julio Rodriguez get back on track?
We'll talk about it.
Before we get started, please like this video and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already.
And if you're listening on the audio side, download, follow,
and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
It really does help a lot.
And we do appreciate it.
We don't say it enough, but thank you, of course,
to those who've served this country and obviously continue to serve.
we wouldn't be here playing this wacky, fun game of fantasy baseball without you, so thank you.
We are recording this in advance, so numbers might change.
Things might, you know, happen over the weekend.
Hopefully nobody gets hurt over the next couple days, anything crazy like that.
But Scotty, let's start with pitching.
We haven't talked about this in a while, just, I guess the state of pitching and overall ERA and WIPP numbers.
So let's talk about it.
The league-wide ERA and WIP last year,
we were spoiled 3.97 ERA 1.27 whip.
This year we're up to a 4.29ERA, the highest it's been since the short in 2020.
If you want to look at a full season, it's the highest it's been since 2019, which we remember, juice ball, a whole bunch of home runs that year.
The whip so far this season is 1.32, again, the highest since 2020, and then 2019 before that.
Things have stabilized quite a bit, though.
2.95 Babbitt this season.
289 last year, but it was 296 in 2019.
So it doesn't seem like anything, any kind of crazy outlier season, even with these shift
restrictions.
Home runs are up compared to last season, but not as high as 2021.
So overall offense is up compared to last year.
But Scott, I think when we look back on 2022, we will remember it as the season with the
dead in baseball, where we got all this great pitching, but that's exactly what it will be.
it will be known as an outlier in this, I don't know, I guess,
era of offense that we're currently playing in.
Well, certainly so far it has.
I'm not ready to say that,
I'm not ready to declare that the final verdict
because as we've seen both last year and in 2021,
the ball played differently at different times of the year.
And I think there's just a lot of variability
in the manufacturing process.
prospect and then the range of acceptable parameters is wide enough that, you know, from,
even from one season to the next, you can't predict exactly how it's going to play.
It is interesting to me, and I'm looking at the stats now, that, you know, normally, historically,
offense gets better as the season gets warmer.
So it's at its lowest in April, gets better in May, better in June, better in July, better in August, and then maybe a little worse in September.
That's the general pattern.
And of course, there's some variation from year to year.
We haven't seen big improvement for offense from April to May.
It's mostly held steady.
Actually, ERA has gone down in May from April, which is a little abnormal.
But home run rate has gone up from April to May.
So, you know, there's some give and take there,
but it already isn't following the usual pattern of the season.
And so that just makes it even harder to figure out my,
just my own feeling as somebody who plays fantasy baseball,
somebody who watches this on a day-to-day basis,
is that pitching has gotten a little more stable than it was early on.
and we're just even the most dominant pitchers
were getting wrecked out of nowhere.
And there's still like still the highest,
the highest in pitchers still have had their struggles.
They haven't been quite as dominant overall.
But just on a night-to-night basis,
the feeling of anything can happen to anyone
has gone away a little bit.
So I don't know if that's just me
becoming accustomed to a new reality or if
or if that's actually happening.
It kind of feels that way.
I will say it might feel that way
even more for you because, you know,
guys like Chris Sale and maybe even like a Lance Lynn
have gotten back on track a little bit.
But I'm happy you mentioned, you know,
kind of what's happened with the Aces so far this year
and even the past couple of years, right?
You mentioned this recently.
Since the sticky substance crackdown in 2021,
there's kind of been this flattening
at the top of the pitcher pool
and aces are not separating themselves
from the middle class as much as they once did.
And it almost feels like just one monster middle class.
I think we still have tier, Scott, like one to 25.
We have the upper middle class, like 25 to 50
is just the middle class.
And then 25 to 50 to 75 would be like the lower middle class
and then whatever you get into like streamers
at the bottom there and maybe like some younger guys
with upside, whatever it might be.
But the question is,
is what do you do if you're falling behind in pitching?
Because you could have started your draft with Sandy Alcantra
and Alec Manoa.
That would have been your second and fifth round picks,
something like that.
Or Dylan Cease and Nessor Cortez,
maybe that was like your fourth and seventh round picks.
On top of underperformers,
there's been a ton of injuries to pitching.
We mentioned in April there were,
it's like the most injuries to pitcher,
most pitchers on the IL since,
I don't know, in the past like 20 years or something.
something crazy like that.
So how do you turn pitching around?
Scott,
are you looking to take your excess offense in leagues
and try and flip it for maybe underperforming pitchers early on here?
Well, you're laying out a scenario
where you already have underperforming pitchers.
I guess getting more underperforming pitchers
if you're trusting them all to turn around
will help you make up ground faster.
The good news, I think,
if pitching is where you're struggling,
as opposed to hitting,
is that there are always new pitching options emerging off the waiver wire.
I feel like there's a more consistent flow of pitching over the course of the year
than there is of hitting just guys suddenly taking off
or new additions to the rotation because obviously there's a lot of turnover at that position
with all the injuries that happen there.
So if you're trusting your sort of,
struggling starters to come around.
And that might vary picture by pitcher.
I understand.
I have a lot more faith in Sandy Alconda coming around than Alec Manoa, for instance.
But you may be able to survive it just by aggressively playing the waiver wire and, you know, being really hands-on with it.
I think if you already have hope at the top, that might be a better solution than potentially,
comparing your offense to try and address it through a trade.
But if you have access at a position,
I mean, that's certainly more common in like a head-to-head league
where you don't have the big lineup to fill.
You know, it's just nine hitter spots to fill, basically.
If you have access somewhere and you want to trade for pitching,
it probably is better to target a sell-high guy
than like a Bryce Elder or something
who we still have a lot of skepticism about.
Well, if you are looking for targets, these are the names that I came up.
I'm sorry, I said a cell high guy.
It's better to target a bi-low guy than Bryce Elder would be the sell-high guy.
Correct.
Better to target a buy-low guy.
Well, who are those by-low guys?
According to FIP, these are the biggest, some of the biggest differentiators in ERA versus FIP right now.
Zach Wheeler, 411 ERA, a 289 FIP, San Diego-Consura, 4-86, and a 380 FIP.
Logan Gilbert, 381, ERA 268 FIP, and Reed-Detmer's.
487 ERA and a 3.42 FIP.
Scott, any names here that stand out in particular
that you would be looking to go out and buy Wheeler, Alcantara,
Gilbert, and Reed Detmer's.
I mean, before the show, you asked me
for two by low targets at starting pitcher,
and I came up with three.
Sandy Alcantra and Zach Wheeler were two of them.
So clearly, they'd be at the top of the list for me.
Sandy Alcantra, it's been kind of weird, his struggles,
because it's all.
almost like we get a different outcome every time he pitches.
At times he looks like his Cy Young winning self going eight innings,
giving up one run or two,
and looking totally fine,
and then the next timeout he'll give up four runs and five innings.
And so the net ERA's on the high side.
But his swinging strike rate is actually his career best.
And he's always had a good swinging strike rate,
even though I know the strikeouts have not been,
there to the extent we'd like for Sandy Alcantra even when he's winning the
Sion. But the swinging strike rate has always been good. So he's still
fooling hitters with his stuff.
I don't think anything's that wrong with him. I think he's due to
get hot here and you'll be happy you held on to him or you'll be happy
you bought low on him if that's something you're able to do.
Zach Wheeler kind of the same thing.
It's not like there's anything obviously
wrong with him. I think he's just a
been a little unstable here in the early going.
And, of course, performance isn't something that happens steadily over the course of the season.
There are peaks and valleys.
You look at his 289 FIP.
I mean, even the expected, the XIP you mentioned here, the expected ERA is 355.
Like, that's not that far from normal for Zach Wheeler.
Still 10.1K per 9.
Still a good walk rate.
He still seems pretty much like Zach Wheeler.
So even though the ERA is a little high,
if that's something you can take advantage of in a trade,
then great.
The other names you have here,
Logan Gilbert, Reed Detmer's.
I feel like Gilbert,
the rise in ERA,
has been a fairly recent thing.
Like he had had start recently
because he was cruising before then.
And that's the other thing about this time of year.
I know a third of the way through the C,
a third of the way through the season.
It's not as small of a sample as it used to be,
but it's still a small enough sample
that one start could really skew things.
Okay, so I have the timeline a little wrong here.
He's actually been really reliable in May,
has Logan Gilbert.
So that's good.
That's another reason to think you could buy him
if anybody's selling.
I guess the one I'd hesitate to call a buy low
is Reed Deutmer's,
because it's mostly just a big strikeout rate,
which is the best thing a pitcher can do.
But he's been really inefficient.
He doesn't start as regularly as most pitchers
because he's in the Angels rotation
and they sometimes have to go sixth man
to give Otani, Shohei Otani, the rest he needs.
So, you know, I've seen Redembers dropped in some leagues.
I think he's probably more valuable
than his current stat line,
but I'm not sure you can count
him to be the sort of pitcher who turns your season around.
Maybe more of a name for deeper leagues, right?
And those other three are ones that you can target in like a shallower 12-team points
league, something like that.
The names that I found, according to expected ERA, the standouts here, the ones that,
according to that stat have been unlucky this season, Joe Musgrove, Nestor Cortez,
Chris Sale, and Tage Bradley, we know that Sale has turned his season around in the month
of May, but the overall numbers still are a little bit inflated.
obviously if you can still buy
based on someone not trusting those overall numbers
or because he has a lengthy
injury history, whatever it might be, I would still
be looking to buy. Scott, anything else on this
group here, Joe Musgrove, I think he's
pretty well established.
You know, he came back from the injury.
A couple of rough starts here. I think he's still fine.
Nester Cortez, I'm a little bit more on the fence with
and like, Taz Bradley is not proven, but
the K-minus walk rate is really, really good for him.
Yeah, I agree with you that
Chris Sale is the one who I have the most confidence in by far.
We've been at Chris Sale podcast all along,
not losing faith in him even as he had those early struggles.
So if you can still buy on him,
he's a top 30 pitcher for me, rest of season.
Same.
Yeah, if somebody values him as less than that, go for it.
The others I have more concerns about,
Taj Bradley, I mean, it probably goes without saying.
He's the one I have the least faith in.
Just, you know, not.
not much of a track record there.
And when he got sent back to the miners
after those initial three strong starts,
got called him, three strong starts, got sent down
and just got crushed in every way.
He allowed nearly as many home runs
as he had strikeouts during that time he was sent down.
And since coming back,
it just seemed not,
he just seemed a little unsteady.
His control seems to go at times.
He can give up hard contact,
at times.
I don't have a lot of confidence in Tage Bradley overall.
If somebody dropped him, I'd probably pick him up,
but as a trade target, I'm not really feeling that.
Musgrove, I agree with you.
It kind of feels like he's going through
those peaks and valleys that so many other pitchers did in April.
I mean, this is kind of his April, given the time he missed.
And just given the track, I trust him to level out.
Cortez
The underlying numbers mostly look good for Cortez too
He's kind of a gimmicky pitcher because
You know he doesn't have like overpowering stuff
He has those different deliveries he uses and just relies greatly on deception
It does seem like his fly ball tendencies are hurting him more this year than they did last year
and maybe that's an environmental change thing.
But he was also pretty good in 2021.
It wasn't just totally exclusive to 2022.
So I'm on the fence about him.
I could see it going either way.
I think if you can buy low enough, it's worth it.
But it's more of a hedging your bet situation than,
okay, this is obviously a guy to target
because he's going to save my pitching staff.
A few other names that I have written down here for myself.
Just names we haven't mentioned yet.
I'm going to stick to the stay on brand here.
Someone I like coming into the season.
It's been a real rocky start so far.
But the K to Walk Great for Lance Lynn is still really good.
And I know he's come around recently,
but the overall numbers still look really bad for Lance Lynn.
So I think you get him for pretty cheap.
I still, I haven't ranked outside my top 40,
but, you know, I think he can kind of perform
as like an SP3, SP4, and that way.
way. And if you play in deeper leagues, I've talked about him a lot recently, but I really like what
we've seen from Brian Beow in terms of the swinging strikes, getting ground balls. I want to see him,
you know, throw strikes more often and not fall behind and counts and walk as many batters. But
there's a lot of pedigree there. I think there's a lot of talent and a really good offense with
the Red Sox as well. So Brian Beow and Deeper Leagues, Lance Lynn and some shallower ones.
Scott, any other names that we haven't mentioned that you would be looking to buy? Or did we
cover all of them? Well, I mentioned I had three. You asked for two.
Two of the three I had were Alcantra and Wheeler.
The other is Wheeler's teammate, Aaron Nola, who has, he's given us hard palpitations in the past
with his just kind of erratic performances at times vulnerable to the long ball,
at times the strikeouts don't seem to be there.
And that has been an issue for him overall this year too.
But he always comes out of it.
You know, and his most recent start, it may not be his most recent start anymore,
but he just had a 10 strikeout effort recently.
He's not somebody who depends greatly on velocity.
So his has been down a little, but less than a mile per hour on the fastball,
and it seems to be trending the right direction.
And I just think he's going to be fine.
And I think that 10 strikeout effort was indication of,
was the start of the turnaround for a pitcher who,
over the longer sample always seems to stabilize.
So Scott says Aranola is going to be fine.
What about this group?
Let's start with Dylan Sees,
who at this point of recording has a 4.60 ERA, a 136 whip.
We've talked about him a lot this season, Scott.
The strikeouts, the swinging strike rate are both way down.
The hard contact is way up for Dylan Sees.
I dropped him down to SP 29 in the ranking,
so a pretty aggressive drop.
I have more as like a, you know, SP3 at this point in the year.
year. What do you look at it to do? If you don't have them on your team, would you be looking to
buy? Do you still have faith in him getting back on track? If you have him on your team,
do you wait for him to rattle off a good starts and then sell him? What do you think about Dylan Seas?
Yeah, I'm pretty worried about Dylan Sees. I've dropped him outside of my top 20 rest of season.
He has not improved as a control pitcher. He's still somebody who hurts himself badly with walks.
but now he's not looking like the elite batmisser anymore.
And I feel like that's a necessary part.
Like if he's going to have success, that's a necessary part of it.
He has to be one of the best batmesters in baseball,
given that he is, you know, he's so vulnerable to walks.
So where do we, what do we do with Dillon C's now?
I don't think it's worth it to sell on him now.
because his value is at its lowest point.
And even if my hunch is correct that,
you know,
last season was more the exception than the rule for him,
chances are he gets better than this.
So do you sell after he has a couple good starts in a row,
whenever that happens?
Maybe.
You know, this is the sort of thing I can't relate to the average user
about
I genuinely don't know
if the average fantasy player
out there
when assessing
you know
they get an offer in their mailbox
they're going to assess this player
they've just been offered
do they default to the overall stat line
oh this guy has an ERA around
five he must not be that good
or do they look at the game log and say
oh look his last couple starts
have been great
and I you know
I knew he was supposed to be good in the first place
so hopefully he's turning things
things around.
You know, my
general practice is more the latter
because I review
every box score every day.
You know, so I'm aware
of the way guys are trending,
and that's more important to me
as a general rule than the overall stat line.
But I don't know if the average person looks at it
that way. I don't know if they're paying
attention to baseball on that
sort of granular level,
the way I am.
So I don't know if
if Cease having a couple good starts in a row
is going to be enough to redeem his trade value.
It's the sort of thing where ultimately
you're just going to have to shop them and find out.
But I do still have him as a top 25 pitch of the rest of the way.
So obviously I'm not saying abandoned ship here.
I'm just a little concerned.
Yeah, we're not dropping Dillon Cesar or anything,
but obviously it has been a letdown of a season.
And I'll let you in a little tip
from the shark known as Frank.
That's what I've been referred to.
in my home league for years.
If he does rattle off these good starts in a row
and someone just looks at the overall numbers,
then I would, you know, poke and prod
and say, hey, go look at his recent numbers.
You know, he's been a lot better recently.
So, yeah, I used to be that guy
that, you know, tries and convince people to make trades,
but I've tried to move away from that.
Let's talk about Alec Menoa,
who just had another bad start against the Tampa Bay raise.
He's up to a 553 ERA and a 179 whip.
He leads all qualified starting pitchers
with six.
point four walks per nine. The next closest is Mackenzie Gore at 4.8. No pitcher, Scott,
I don't care who you are, can succeed walking as many batters as Manoa is. And on top of that,
I mean, he doesn't get as many strikeouts as other quote unquote aces. And, you know,
he's giving up a ton of hits this year and home runs. Like everything has gone wrong for
Alec Manoa. You can't start him right now. I mean, do you try and buy super low, like bargain
in basement? Is he a drop
if you have him on your team? What do you think?
I have no expectations
for Alec Manoa at this point.
So
would I buy him?
I don't know. How low is the person selling?
If somebody dropped him, I'd pick him up.
Because I think
things have gone so wildly wrong for him
this year in every possible
way that
it
just seems like part of his delivery is
broken or something
mentally is broken.
Like a switch has flipped off in Alec Manoa's,
in the way Alec Manoa is.
And it could just as suddenly flip back on.
He could figure out, oh, I've been doing this wrong.
Some pitching coach could point out,
oh, you're doing, you're holding your hand this way,
when you should hold it this way.
Like it could really be something that small
that's just kind of messed everything up.
and it could just to suddenly get back on track
the way we've sort of seen Lance Lenn
get back on track.
I mean, Manoa's been worse in some ways,
but it could be that sudden.
I was going to say,
Michael Kopex guy,
I think is a great example, right?
Like, he's just flipped a switch
and he's been awesome over his last two starts.
Yeah.
And of course,
we know what the upside is for Minowah
if that happens.
But there's no timetable for that sort of thing.
There's no guarantee it happens at all.
I can't sit here and say,
okay,
July 1st,
Manoa is going to be fine.
But that is a possibility.
And so if I have an investment in Manoa already,
I'm going to be super patient with him.
Again, not starting him.
It'd be crazy to start him.
He's going to do way more harm than good.
But just planning him on your bench for at least a few more weeks
to see if he shows any signs of coming around,
I'd be okay with that.
And, you know, I understand.
I say a few more weeks, maybe another month of just sitting on Manoa and seeing what happens.
Even after that point, the switch could flip.
So there's really like no safe point to drop Manoa.
But, you know, we get deep enough into the season and needs become more immediate.
I understand it may happen at some point that we have to drop them.
I'm just not there yet.
And the question we always ask when you're thinking about dropping a player is,
will somebody else in my league pick this player up?
And if you're playing with Scott White,
he says that he's going to go out
and pick up Alec Manoa.
So just keep that in mind
when considering dropping him.
Let's take our first break here, Scott.
When we return, we'll get into first base,
second base, all the infield positions,
what's going on there, the biggest questions.
We'll do that right after this.
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Let's get into First Bay Scott,
and the biggest disappointment this season
has been Jose Abrae.
It's like he aged five years this off season.
I know he's 36 years old,
but it feels like he's 40,
the way that he's playing right now.
At the time of recording,
he does not have a home run this season.
He has not homered since,
September 13th of last year.
The stack cast page is ice blue.
He's batting 2.30 against fast balls.
And some tried to warn me in the offseason
that, you know, the slugging percentage
was down on fast balls last year.
As of now, you were right.
And I was wrong.
You know, I just tried to have my blind faith
in Jose Abraeu, as I've done in the past.
But he is down to 81% rostered.
What do you think, Scott?
I mean, are we at the point where
you could drop Jose Abraeu regardless of league?
I think mostly, yes.
If you get into some of those deeper roto leagues,
there's probably just not anybody good enough on the waiver wire
for you to consider doing it.
Because, look, I don't know what's going to happen
to Jose Abrae going forward, obviously.
And he's been a talented player for long enough
that it wouldn't be shocking if he suddenly got back on track.
But at this point, I'm pretty pessimistic.
It's going to happen, given his age 36 and that he's just not impacting the ball
the way we're used to seeing him impact the ball.
He's striking out more.
It's not a ridiculous rate, but he's striking out more than we're used to seeing him strike out.
And we already saw his power production decline last year.
So we entered the season with some doubts already.
and then those doubts have only been exacerbated.
Yeah, I think at this point the safe assumption
is that Jose Ibrahim is probably done as a fantasy asset.
And so if there is a league where you need to free up that spot,
then I think that's okay.
I don't necessarily blame us for coming into the season with optimism.
I mean, his average exit velocity last year, even though the power numbers were down, was 93rd percent.
Expected batting average 98th percentile, expected slugged 93rd percentile.
Like, he seemed like just somebody who drastically underperformed what his batted ball data said he should have done last year.
And he still had a productive enough season.
It was mostly just the home runs were down.
So, you know, I'm not going to go hard on myself for having belief.
in Abraeu coming into the year.
But it does seem like things have gone very much the other direction.
And I'm ready to move on.
And sometimes it can happen just like that.
For a player who's 36 years old,
these things can just kind of fall off a cliff
the way that they've had they have with Jose Abram.
Someone who's been the opposite, Scott.
Anthony Rizzo has been amazing this year.
He's back to hitting line drives.
Seems to like this new shiftless environment in baseball.
The strikeouts, however, are a career high,
23%
the BABIP is sky high
I've got to imagine
it's gonna come down a little bit
just seems like he's overperforming a bit
he has an extensive injury history
I haven't ranked
we both haven't ranked inside of our top 10
I'm not just saying like
oh you gotta get rid of Anthony Rizzo
but I don't know given that injury history
if you can flip him for someone like
Vinnie P who
has been okay but maybe he hasn't lift up
to all of our expectations
is that something you would try to do
like a Rizzo for Vinny P type move
yeah if you thought you could pull it off
I doubt it's the kind of move I can pull off in my leagues
but if you thought you could do that
I mean look my rankings say I like
Vinny P more than Rizzo rest of season
so that's a fine thing to try
I do think
it's possible
that Rizzo is nearly this good
his batting average likely will come down some
but, you know, he only became this extreme case of high batting,
I mean, of low batting average high power, you know,
kind of this polarized player in that way.
That's been a recent development in his career.
Earlier in his career is Glory Days with the Cubs before the infield shifts
became so prominent.
Anthony Rizzo was a guy who would hit 280, 290 with 30 plus homers.
It would be a more well-rounded hitter.
There was a time there in his prime when he was going,
he was like a first-round pick in fantasy.
So with the shifts going away,
seeing his batting average rebound to the degree it has,
again, it's probably a little further than it should be,
and some regression is coming,
but it may not be as extreme as some listeners are thinking.
All right, let's slide over to second base.
Andres Jimenez has been the,
I would say, biggest disappointment
at this position, he had 17 runs scored and five steals in his first 15 games this season.
In 31 games since, he has just five runs scored and two steals.
During that time, the line drive rate is way down.
His average exit velocity down over three miles per hour compared to last year.
The hard hit rate down 18 percentage points and struggling mightily against right-handed pitching.
Scott Andreas Jimenez is down to 89% rostered.
it's not the same situation as Jose Abraeu
because obviously Abraeu is just a lot older.
But, you know, we're about two months in,
and we have a sample where last year,
Andres Jimenez was amazing.
The year before, he was really bad.
And this season kind of resembles more of that 20-21 season so far.
What are you doing with Andres Jimenez?
Do you think you can drop him in, you know, 12-team leagues?
Shallow leagues.
So, like a points league or maybe any league that doesn't,
require a third middle infielder in the starting lineup, then I think you could at least
think about dropping Andres Jimenez. And there's a certain amount of confirmation bias here
because I had him as a as a preseason bust. So while there is an attitude, well, I am probably
giving up an attitude of, oh, anything can happen from this point forward. A, that's true.
and B, but B, it's easier to,
it's easier to buy in what you're currently seeing
when it already confirms, when it confirms your priors, you know.
And my priors for Andres Jimenez were one of the biggest overachievers last year
looking at the data, just doesn't impact the ball that hard.
And he is very fast, but he doesn't have,
apart from hitting for average,
he doesn't get on base much
to take advantage of that speed.
He's not somebody who walks a lot.
And so,
you know,
everything has just kind of come together
to deliver his worst case scenario.
I think law of averages says,
okay, he can only get better from here.
He's not going to get worse.
But is he going to be as good as we saw last year?
I very much doubt that.
And even as good as he was last year,
I mentioned points leagues,
I think it's easiest to drop Andres Jimenez in those formats.
In points leagues last year, his point per game average as good as he was,
was pretty pedestrian.
It was about the same as Jorge Polanco and Jake Croninworth.
And not that much better than like a DJ Memahue even.
So I think Second Base has a lot of redundant season, those shallowest formats.
and, you know, if, so you don't need to be tied to Andres Jimenez,
just because of his preseason draft status.
Let's quickly get a temperature check, Scott, on Miguel Vargas,
because he had that brutal April, you know, he was dealing with that,
with a thumb injury in spring training.
So perhaps that kind of, you know, bled into the season,
the start of the season.
In May, Miguel Vargas has been much better,
batting 263 with an 838 OPS.
And it seems like he could make a,
another leap, obviously, you know, rookies could struggle and then get on track as they gain more experience.
Would you be looking to buy someone like Miguel Vargas where the overall numbers are still not where we want them to be?
But it looks like he's trending in the right direction.
I'd look to buy Miguel Vargas in a dynasty league because long term, I still have a lot of faith in him.
But for this year, I just haven't seen enough.
I haven't seen enough evidence that power is there,
even if he does start to heat up,
that he's really going to be this sort of impactful player
that you need to be buying on right now.
Of course, the deeper the league,
the more value he holds.
But I think for the average person listening,
Miguel Vargas is more of a do you drop him or not situation
than do you trade for him?
All right, let's get into shortstop.
I got a bunch of names listed here.
We spoke about Trey Turner recently.
First season of a mega deal in Philadelphia.
We've seen other star players struggle in similar situations.
And what we pointed out when talking about him is the strikeout rate is up quite a bit this year, nearly 27% compared to 18.5% last year.
He's getting under the ball too much.
Career high fly ball rate.
The pop-ups are also up.
Quality of contact looks fine.
But a three-year trend with his chase rate and swing.
a strike rate kind of ballooning at this point so far this season.
You know, he's still young enough where, and talented enough where I, you know, I think he's
going to get back on track.
But relative to our preseason expectations, the first round pick, maybe he doesn't live up
to what we thought he was going to be.
That's Tray Turner.
Eh.
I mean, when he's been, when he's been that good for that long and you're still, you know,
on the right side of 30, so there's no reason to assume, like,
physically he's regressed.
I think he's going to figure it out.
I haven't seen fit to lower Trey Turner.
I did just drop him a couple spots in my rest of season
and shortstop rankings, but behind guys like Fernando Tatis and Mookie Betts,
not even behind like a Boba Shett.
I would still take Trey Turner over him.
Or my expectation is that Trey Turner would outperform him rest of season.
So I think he's going to be fine.
Yeah, those plate discipline numbers are worse, but that's, I think, as much a symptom as a cause.
You know, again, unless it's a Jose Abraeus situation and the guy's older,
and so, you know, maybe the reduced physicality, the reduced physicality, redust.
The reduced physicality is what's causing him to, to, to,
to swing and miss on balls in the zone
or to chase more because he's trying to force the issue.
And I don't suspect that's happening with Turner.
I think he's just, I don't know,
maybe he's just taking a while to get comfortable
in a new environment or...
I don't know what it is, but I think he's going to come around.
He has been really bad against fastballs so far this season
and typically feast off that pitch.
He's batting just 221 with a 365 slug.
So it seems like the timing is kind of off right now,
for Tray Turner, but I think for the reasons that Scott laid out, he should be fine.
Let's not panic on him.
Francisco Lindor, Scott, the power and speed are okay.
The counting stats are perfectly fine, but the batting average has been an issue.
Lower 200, 220's batting average so far.
The strikeout rate is up.
Average exit velocity is actually up a touch this year.
Just wanted to mention him because I think he's going to be fine.
I think the BABIP is just a little bit low right now for Lindor, but no, by season's end,
I think maybe he doesn't get all the way up to like the 270 hitter we thought,
but probably gets into like that 250, 260 range.
Yeah.
I mean, that's within the range of possible outcomes for Lindorne.
His batting average, hasn't been a batting average standout in a long time.
Actually has a higher exit velocity and max exit velocity both than last year.
So I think he's going to be fine.
Willie Adomis, the power and speed is also fine here.
I think he's on pace for like a 30, 15 season, something like that.
But the batting average has plummeted down to 204.
Some things that I noted, the ground ball rate is up this year.
Too many pop-ups, which are automatic outs.
The quality of contact actually has taken a big step back.
We're talking nearly three miles per hour on the average X velocity,
hard hit rate down 10 percentage points.
Not as much of an extensive track record here, Scott.
Do you have any concerns over Willie Adamas?
You know, I haven't looked at him that closely yet.
Same until now.
I know he's been struggling.
And, you know, he's more of a mid-round target than an early-round target,
so he doesn't deserve as much benefit of the doubt, of course,
as a guy like Trey Turner.
And there have been enough, there have been enough emerging options at shortstop,
whether you're talking about like Jorge Matei,
who I know slowed down a lot recently,
but somebody like that or Tyro Estrada,
there have been enough emerging options there
that in the sort of league
where you could even think about dropping Adama's
in the first place, I don't think it's a crazy thought.
But having said that, what do I actually expect
to happen for him the rest of the way?
I expect he'll get better.
I expect he'll hit for power.
I, you know, it's,
this rickout rate is actually a little lower than last year,
so that's a good sign as far as that goes.
Yeah, I think if it's,
I think if it's a league where it's unreasonable to consider dropping him,
then you're going to consider dropping him
because more likely than not he'll get better.
Like, I want to drop him for a Paul DeYoung or somebody like that.
Yeah, and I actually got that question recently about Tim Anderson, right?
Should I drop Tim Anderson for Paul DeYoung?
don't think that I'm there, but I'm a little bit more worried about it, Tim Anderson.
Zero homers at the time of recording this.
His isolated power has plummeted four years in a row.
The ground ball rate is up to a career high, 66%.
He is hitting the ball hard, but again, it feels like everything is into the ground right now.
And the sprint speed has dropped all the way down to 41st percentile.
He sprained his left knee earlier this season.
Wouldn't be surprised, Scott, if Tim Anderson is currently playing through something.
We know he's dealt with a lot of injuries in the past as well.
It seems like right now it might be something that's vastly affecting his performance.
Yeah, it might be, or he might be rusty after missing some time.
I put Tim Anderson, Willie Adamas, and Carlos Correy in the same bucket.
They weren't so high-end coming in that in shallow leagues,
you have to give them every benefit of the doubt.
I understand shallow league situations where,
you have limited bench space
and you guys obviously aren't performing well enough
for you to put them in your lineup,
you have a fine alternative,
then maybe you could think about dropping them
just because it's a shallow league
and they don't, when they're performing like this,
there are enough alternatives that you don't need to stick with them.
But I do think the most likely scenario,
for all three of them, Adam is Anderson and Correa,
is that they get hot at some point,
and their end of year numbers look more or less like we expected them to.
I still think that's the likelyest scenario for all three.
I know Correa is dealing with a foot and heel issue right now.
So again, we're recording this a little early.
Maybe he lands on the IL over this weekend.
I know there was some talk about that.
So we'll see what happens with Carlos Correa.
Two names that if you could get for cheaper than their draft day value, Scott,
I would be looking to do that.
Anthony Volpe, the batting average, very bad.
It's right around 200.
He's still on pace for a 20-40 season, 20 homers and 40 steals.
That's impressive.
It is, right?
Getting 200.
Yeah, batting 20-5 with like a 20-40 season.
That would be something for him.
The strikeout rate is very high, but he's actually, he's impacting the ball hard.
It's 90 mile per hour average exit velocity.
The barrel rate looks pretty good for a middle infielder.
And the other name is Bobby Witt Jr., who, again, the batting average is low,
but he has better expected stats than last year.
the average exit velocity barrel rate and hard hit are all up this season for Bobby Witt.
So I don't know how likely it is, Scott, but I'll just throw it out there.
If you can get them for less than their draft day costs, I like the idea of trying to buy on a Volpe or a Bobby Witt Jr.
Yeah, I definitely agree with Witt.
Now, with Volpe, do you value him more than that previous trio?
We just talked about Tim Anderson, Carlos Correa, Willie Adams.
I don't know.
Maybe you don't value those three exactly the same.
but I updated the rankings recently and I have it I have Adamas ahead of Volpe and then I have
Correa and Tim Anderson behind Volpe at this point okay so he's right in the middle of that
group for you yeah I still have him behind all three I didn't realize he was on a 2040 pace
but will he stay on a 2040 pace if he continues to hit 200 probably not probably not will he
continue to hit 200 well if he keeps striking out 30% of the
time you will, but will that get better? I can't really predict the rate of growth for Volpe
over the next four months. I do think long term, I'm more encouraged by his rookie season than
discouraged. You know, it's become, it hasn't, we've, we've noticed over the last few years
that even prospects as high end as him aren't dominating right when they get to the league.
there's been a bit of an adjustment period, sometimes lasting a whole year.
And so, you know, I don't see Volpe as somebody who's going to continue to strike out 30% of the time forevermore.
Like, that's a round number we refer to a lot because you have to be like amazing in terms of quality of contact to overcome a 30% strikeout rate.
And Volpe isn't that.
But I don't think that's going to be a long-term issue.
I think that's just growing pains, a guy making the jump to the majors at a very young age and taking his lumps.
And yet he's still on pace for 20 homers and 40 steal.
So that's very encouraging for the long term.
Do I think Volpe is going to improve enough this year that you should be buying into him now?
I wouldn't pay a lot for him.
It would have to be more of a throw-in situation, I think, or somebody.
you know, that I'm about to drop.
Maybe I flip him for Voltpe, something like that.
I've come close to dropping Volpey myself in a shallow league, the 12th team points league,
the podcast league.
I've held on to him.
He's just been on my bench all year.
I think maybe I started to me utility once.
I've been tempted to drop him, though, so that I can pick up an extra pitcher.
I haven't done it yet.
But it's been something that's, it's a thought that's entered my mind.
Like you said about Manoa, Scott, I'll tell you right now, if you drop Anthony Volpe,
I'm picking him up.
Well, see, that's what I feared is if I,
I drop him, somebody will pick him up, and I won't have a shot at him again.
So that's what's kept me.
Oh, I mean, I'm just kidding.
I'm just kidding. You should drop him, Scott.
There's no way I'll pick him up.
Let's take our final break.
And when we're return, we'll talk about third base, the outfield, and a few bullpins I want to get into.
We'll do that right after this.
Welcome back and let's get into third base.
We'll start with Austin Riley, who hasn't been a disaster this season, but the power numbers are down quite a bit.
It seems like ground balls are kind of the main culprit right now, a 47%
ground ball rate for Austin Riley.
That's 38% for his career.
And just the quality of contact barrel rate is in the 59th percentile, hard hit,
67th percentile.
Austin Riley is usually among the league leaders in those categories.
And something I noticed, Scott, is that he slowed down the last two months of 2022 as well,
a 224 batting average 723 OPS from August 1st on last year.
And that came with a 46% ground ball rate.
So it seems like there might be just something.
off slightly in the swing where he's kind of hitting the ball into the ground a little bit more.
And as a result, it has hurt Austin Riley. What do you think?
I think we've observed with Austin Riley so far in his career that he's a pretty streaky player.
You mentioned he kind of finished slow last year.
His start last year was nothing to write home about either.
After April and May, he was batting around 260 with 12 home runs.
Well, I guess those are decent numbers, but the point is, like, so much of his production last year came in July.
He hit 423 with 11 home runs in July.
And so he just got insanely hot for a stretch there.
And I suspect that it's going to happen to him at some point this year, too.
I'm not sure it's going to be July.
I don't know exactly when it's going to happen.
But it is right around the corner.
I would, yes.
You mentioned his hard hit rate was only 67th percentile.
Not that 67th percentile is bad.
but it's normally higher.
Average exit velocity, 80th percentile,
max exit velocity in 98th percentile.
Like, he still has that elite slugger profile.
And it's not like he's striking out drastically more this year.
I think he's going to be fine, just a little streaky.
To rookie Scott, Gunner Henderson,
obviously we get a bunch of questions about him.
A 31% strikeout rate this season has been a big problem.
Still hitting the ball really hard,
has been better in the month of May,
more extra base hits, the OPS near 800.
He's been abysmal against lefties.
So again, lefties and strikeouts, big issues for Gunner Henderson.
And Jordan Walker, Scott, people keep asking, you know, when can I drop this guy?
And I think it's a similar answer to what we talked about earlier with Alec Mino.
If you drop Jordan Walker, is someone in your league going to pick him up?
I would say the only way I would drop him is if he's actively hurting your team.
You need that roster spot to make your team better.
because honestly, I don't think you're going to find someone on the waiver wire who has more upside than a Jordan Walker.
So just keep that in mind. Scott, your latest thoughts on Gunner and Jordan Walker.
I mean, Gunner Henderson, basically everything about everything I said about Anthony Volpe applies to him to.
Like, I think this is growing pains for a young player entering a difficult league.
And in the long run, he should still be great for fantasy.
I don't know how long it'll take him to get there.
I don't know.
So it's another question of how shallow your league is.
I think you put it well.
If having him on your bench is actively hurting you
or if dropping him means someone almost certainly would pick him up,
then I would, you know, I guess those are opposite situations.
If he's actively hurting you on your bench
or if you're not worried somebody will pick him up
if you drop him,
if your league is such
that that isn't likely,
then it's probably okay to drop him.
I will point out with Jordan Walker.
He does seem to be picking it up at AAA,
has had more success over the last week.
The Cardinals,
their outfield is not a full capacity right now.
Dylan Carlson's hurt, Tyler O'Neill's hurt,
and might be out for a while.
Walker was hitting so poorly at first,
about 180,
that there was really no justification
to bring it back, no matter how banged up their outfield was,
but he may not need to be hot for long to make it back.
So I'm starting to get more optimistic that his return is coming sooner than later.
Again, that is Jordan Walker, who is down to 71% rostered.
So if he was dropped in your league, I would say go out and add him.
If you just have a bench spot to mess with, use it on Jordan Walker.
Let's get into the outfield, Scott, and Julio Rodriguez.
has been a letdown so far this season.
Batting average issues.
The strikeout rate is up to 28%.
Quality of contact still looks really good.
92.2 average exit velocity, 50% hard hit rate.
He's not pulling the ball as much.
The barrel rate is down a little bit.
He ran hot last year in terms of BABIP,
a 345 BABIP.
This year it's 283.
I mean, based on how hard he hits the ball,
it feels like that BAB should be higher.
I don't know that we'll get the like 280 plus batting average.
But I think Julio Rodriguez is probably going to wind up being more of like a 260, 270 guy right now.
So I'm not overly worried about him.
I'm not either.
Just looking at expected stats, last year he overperformed them,
but had a 254 expected batting average, a 460 slug.
254, 460.
This year, 260, so actually a little bit higher the expected batting average,
and 443 is the expected slug, a little bit lower,
but both basically in the same ballpark
as what Stackcast said he should have been last year.
Did he overachieve last year?
Yes, and I think the hope coming in
was that he would just get better.
And so when it come off is obviously overachieving.
But even more so this year, he's underachieving,
and I expect that to turn around.
Scott, we know that you love yourself some Kyle Swarber,
the batting average 170 at the time of recording this.
The power is.
still there. He is heading a ton of pop-ups. 20% infield fly ball rate. That is currently a career high.
Maybe something weird going on in Philly. I know, you know, Trey Turner's kind of having a similar
issue. Pulling the ball way more, so maybe trying to take advantage of those shifts, but it doesn't
seem to be working out so far for Kyle Schwerber. The hard contact and the barrel rate is down quite a bit.
Any actual concern there with him? Not really. No, I think something's just a little off with
his swing and he's both him and tray turner let's let's mention that they have kevin long as their
hitting coach and he is one of the the best in the business that has a very good reputation
and i think under his tutelage i mean they'd likely be fine anyway but that's another reason
to be optimistic that they will be hey if he's the best in the business come on here come on
kevin long let's let's let's pick it up then let's let's help these guys out more famous hitting coach
than Kevin Long. One of the most well-known.
Yeah, I mean, there's...
Well-traveled.
Not really anyone that comes to mind.
Gosh, I don't really know.
Is there any other standout hitting coach, really, in the league right now?
Like, I feel like Kevin Long is like the one that everyone kind of refers to.
Yeah.
Let's get into Staling Marte. Scott.
The plate discipline for him looks fine.
The 285 Babbit.
No, that sounds good, right?
But it is actually low for his career.
It was 340 last year, 3.
3.42 overall.
in Starling Marte's career.
He's hitting too many fly balls,
35%, 28% for his career.
And the quality of contact all looks about the same, Scott.
He's not someone that typically hits the ball very hard,
but his home run to fly ball ratio is 4.7%.
Last year, 15% and for his career, 13.5%.
So it seems like, you know, that number is low.
You know, Starling Marte is getting up there in age.
He's 34 years old.
He had the dual groin surgery.
I just kind of wonder if maybe coming off that in the age,
like not able to drive the ball with as much authority as he has in the past.
So I don't know that he's going to give us like the near 20 homers.
Like maybe he's like a 10 to 12 homer guy.
He's still running crazy.
So I mean, that's the good thing.
He's on pace for 44 steals this season.
I was pulling up a list of hitting coaches around the game to make sure we weren't missing somebody obvious.
And my goodness, who are these guys?
I didn't realize there had been like a new wave of hitting coaches entering the league.
A lot of teams have like assistant hitting coaches now too.
I don't even know if I can name the Yankees hitting coach.
Like is it Marcus Thames?
I feel like it was him for a while.
It is.
All right.
It is, yes.
And he has an assistant who, oh, I'm sorry.
No, he's not with the Yankees anymore.
He's with the Angels.
His assistant is Phil Planteer, who might be the most famous player, like just from his playing days,
who is now a hitting coach.
or an assistant hitting coach in his case.
The Yankees are Dylan Lawson.
No clue.
No clue.
Brad Wilkerson has his assistant.
I mean, the Braves have a pretty famous hitting coach to
and Kevin Siteser, who was, I think,
I made a couple all-star teams.
But yeah, it's...
Okay, sorry, I didn't look at the National League.
Well, you win, Scott, because Kevin Long,
I would say, is probably the most popular hitting coach.
Uh, yeah. Okay, so anyway, back to Starling Marte. Now, this is another situation where the confirmation bias is going to kick in for me because all the Cincinnati Reds have an assistant hitting coach named Terry Bradshaw. That's kind of...
He's famous.
Tangentially famous. It's not that Terry Bruchel. All right. Um, yeah, I had him as a preseason bust, Starling Marte. And part of my concern was that I wasn't sure he was going to run as much.
anymore and that's always been such a big part of his fantasy guy. He actually has 13 steals,
but his sprint speed is down to 38th percentile. It's been getting worse and worse. That's obviously not,
he's just not a fast runner anymore. So I don't know if that's going to sustain. And I do have worry,
I do have concerns at his age that the hitting is going to bounce back. I would still consider
it more likely than not, but then you have, you factor in all the health risk that he's always had and
it's only getting worse at his age, just how reliable is he going to be?
I don't know, he doesn't seem like an obvious bylaw to me, Starly Marte.
He seems more like, well, I'm not ready to drop him, but I don't feel totally secure with him either.
Yeah, I think that's probably about right.
Michael Harris, Scott is a name that we've talked about a lot recently.
And it was like either last week or two weeks ago, we looked into his numbers.
And I remember the quality of contact was still really good.
And things have kind of taken a bit of a step back with him since.
then. I think they've gotten even worse. The expected stats are awful.
88.6 average exit velocity is, it's okay, but it's down a touch from last year.
The barrel rate and hard hit rate are also down quite a bit for Michael Harris.
The plate discipline has improved, which is what we wanted to see, but it seems like maybe he's
trying to sell out for power a little bit. Fly balls and pop-ups are up this year.
Michael Harris is still 97% rostered. I mean, what point do we have to get to, Scott, where,
like in three outfielder leagues,
people can start to consider dropping on Michael Harris.
Well, I don't think we're there yet.
We got to remember he missed a lot of time.
So he's at a point now
where the rest of the league was
three weeks ago.
Is that how much time you missed?
However much time he missed.
That's the point he's at.
And so we have to give him a little more patient.
We have to show him a little more patience because of that
and also because of the level investment we have in him.
And, you know, a lot of the data looks really promising still.
I know people are getting antsy to move on with him.
I'm getting questions about Mount Michael Harris all the time.
I do see him as a by-low still.
Like, I couldn't imagine dropping him.
If somebody dropped him in one of my leagues, I'd blow up my fab to get him.
Because I think, you know, I think he's going to figure it out.
I think there are enough positive signs here and just how young he is.
I think he's going to be fine in the long run.
It's frustrating right now.
I get it, but I'd keep the faith on Michael Harris.
All right.
Let's wrap up here, Scott, with some rapid-fire questions about bullpens in baseball.
Who will lead each of these bullpins and saves rest of the season?
It's pretty hard to predict, obviously.
But we'll start with the Yankees here.
Clay Holmes, Michael King, Wondi Peralta, Scott.
If you had to choose one, who leads the Yankees and saves?
I choose King.
Yeah.
You drop this king.
And it's not with a lot of conviction.
I think these three are on near equal footing right now.
But I think King's just the most talented.
So I'm hopeful he'll pull away.
For the Diamondbacks guide,
it seems like kind of a two-headed monster right now,
I guess, between Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin,
do you have a lean there?
I think Chaffin's the more talented.
So when it's close, I'm going to defer to that.
I think I'll lean with Castro.
right-handed reliever versus the lefty and chafin.
And it seems like they've given Castro more opportunities recently for saves.
So I'll lean with him, but it's close.
For the Cubs, it seems pretty wide open, Scott.
I know Mark Leiter Jr., when we're recording this,
he got the most recent save for the Cubs.
There's Adbert Alzali.
Jeremiah Estrada has some, seems like good stuff there.
He gets a lot of strikeouts, also lots of walks.
Cody Hoyer is a name that's on the IL,
and, you know, he had some good stuff in the past
when he pitched for the White Sox.
Do you have a lean here on the Cubs?
Lighter.
I think it's lighter.
They went so long without a save opportunity.
They went with like two weeks without one that it hasn't become obvious that it's lighter.
But he barely pitched during that time.
It's clear they were holding him back for something.
And then he got a save just on when they finally did get an opportunity on Wednesday.
His numbers are certainly closer caliber.
he's their best reliever so far
and I think he's
I think he's going to lock it up
what about the Dodgers
got Evan Phillips
and Bruce Star Gratterol
who gets more saves
Phillips
but they are not opposed
to putting in Phillips earlier in the game
if they think
it's a critical moment of the game
they brought him in the fifth inning
against the Braves
a few days ago
but he's their
preferred reliever which means he'll usually handle the knife
would not surprise
me if the Dodgers go out and trade for somebody at some point as well.
For the Marlins, Dylan Floro has done a great job in AJ Puck's absence.
You know, AJ Puck should be back sometime.
I don't know if there's an official timetable, but it feels like within the next
couple of weeks, do you think AJ Puck just gets that job back with as well as
Floreau has pitched?
Yeah, I assume so.
He was Skip Schumacher's first choice, and he did fine until he started having some issues
that ultimately led to him going on the IEL.
it wouldn't be the most shocking thing
if Schumacher just stuck with Flora
like we don't know his tendencies very well yet
since he's a rookie manager.
But one thing we have noticed with him,
very predictable bullpen usage.
So no matter which way he goes,
he'll probably just stick with one guy.
My assumption, though, is puck.
With the Phillies, we know Craig Kimball
seems like the leader for now.
Gregory Soto is also in the mix.
Jose Alvarado should be back at some point, Scott.
Where do you lean with the Phillies?
Very messy because even before Alvarado went on the IL,
it seemed like they weren't totally sold on him as the guy,
but he has the best numbers by far,
and they have enough lefties in the bullpen.
I think it's going to be him.
Kimbril's the second choice, though.
All right, and then the nationals got Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey.
They've mixed and match a little bit recently.
I kind of feel like the nationals want to trade Kyle Finnegan
and get something for him.
I don't know.
I think I would actually take Hunter Harvey here.
I think he's going to lead this team and save.
I was going to say the same thing, so I guess it's not that shocking of a take.
It does appear.
Finnegan is still, he's kind of being used the way the Dodgers are using Evan Phillips.
Like, he's their most trusted reliever.
He'll come in really early in games at times.
But if he's available for the ninth in a safe situation, they'll use Kyle Finnegan.
But it does seem like Hunter Harvey has emerged as the clear backup plan.
And I just think they're grooming him to be that guy.
Whether they trade Finnegan or not, he might just be better than Finnegan.
And the teams that I think are most likely to trade for a closer, Scott, the Cubs, I know Mark Leiter's junior's numbers are actually really good.
So maybe they don't.
But overall, you know, all four of these teams, I think there are teams that are going to compete for a playoff spot or, you know, win their division, whatever it might be.
But their ERA of their bullpens is currently very bad.
So the Cubs, the D-Backs, the Dodgers, and the Rangers, I think are all teams that are potential candidates to trade for a closer at some point.
Yeah, the Rangers especially.
The Rangers are looking quite good.
I mean, so much has gone right with their pitching staff,
and I say that even with Jacob de Grom on the aisle currently,
that they are the first team to surpass the raise
and run differential this season.
It may have changed since we recorded this.
They were neck and neck,
but the rays were a runaway in that category,
and the Rangers at one point recently surpassed them.
All right.
Well, we're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank.
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We'll be back again tomorrow with a recap of everything that's gone on over the past couple of days.
We'll see you then.
Bye-bye.
Bye.
