Fantasy Baseball Today - Third Base and Shortstop Tiers! Musgrove to the Padres! (1/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 19, 2021

Perhaps the biggest trade just went down in MLB history as Joe Musgrove was traded to the San Diego Padres! What's Musgrove's Fantasy outlook (1:09)? How high will his ADP rise? ... We take a look at ...the rest of our news and notes as Joey Lucchesi was sent to the Mets in the Musgrove deal (9:25). Jon Lester signed with the Nats, Tyler Chatwood signed with the Blue Jays and the Red Sox are going to be cautious with Chris Sale. ... Third base tiers (13:01)! The super elite includes Jose Ramirez and that's it. ... The elite tier is a stacked one (17:54). Is Machado overvalued? Rendon, Bregman, or Arenado? ... We're combining the near elite and next best things tiers (24:18). Why is Gio Urshela disrespected? ... The fallback options include a pair of awesome prospects with Bohm and Hayes (30:10). ... On to shortstops (37:12)! The super elite tier includes Fernando Tatis, Trea Turner and Trevor Story (37:12). Any concerns with Tatis? ... The elite tier includes Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager (42:43). What happened with Lindor in 2020? ... The near elite tier includes Tim Anderson, Adalberto Mondesi, Bo Bichette, and Xander Bogaerts (47:30). Who is Scott's favorite to draft? We wrap up with the next best things tier at shortstop (50:30) and your questions! ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Starting point is 00:00:24 So you thought we talked a lot about Joe Musgrove before? Well, try the San Diego Padres on for size. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on two. Tuesday, January 19th, two-man crew, Frank Stanful, and Scott White, back at it. Loaded show today, we have third base and shortstop tiers, your mailbag questions, and perhaps the most important trade of all time, Scott. Joe Musgrove is headed to the Padres in a three-team deal. Scott, the ADP on Fantasy Pros is 163.7.
Starting point is 00:00:56 Look into the crystal ball. This, come March, come this March. Where do you predict that ADP will wind up for Big Joey Musgrove? Big Joey must start. Well, it was already on the way up, right? Even before this trade, you know, the NFBC ADP allows you to section off date ranges. And so more recently we had seen Musgrove going more in like the 120 range, right? And our heads were kind of exploding over that.
Starting point is 00:01:28 the buzz is only going to grow louder now that he's actually with the good team and I mean he actually had when you consider okay the Padres acquired Blake Snell and Udarvish prior to this move this offseason already well Joe Musgrove set a career high with the swinging strike rate identical to what Udarvish's was last year
Starting point is 00:01:55 and ended the season with back-to-back double-digit swinging strikeout F or back to back double digit strikeout efforts, the first double digit strikeout efforts of his career throw through his curveball a lot more it seemed to make the swinging strike rate on everything else go up. So there's definitely reason to be excited about him
Starting point is 00:02:15 and now he's not cursed by being with the pirates, the pirates. I guess he is with the Padres. So I think I think he could it's hard to see him going much higher than the 120 range because that among starting pitchers you get into like Patrick Corbin and Charlie Morton
Starting point is 00:02:38 but maybe he could crack the top 100 which is more like Dylan Bundy and Chris Paddock which you know what's funny is again after they added Darvish after they added Snell and now Musgrove you can make the case that the Padres' fifth starter now, their fifth best starter is Chris Paddock,
Starting point is 00:03:02 the guy who we all had as their number one starter going into last year. Like, there's a case to be made. Personally, I'm not going to put Musgrove ahead of him, but it wouldn't surprise me if the hype builds to that point. Yeah. It is crazy, man. We talk about Joe Musgrove a lot on this podcast,
Starting point is 00:03:19 and some people might be tired of it. You know, I get it, but let's just be real for a second when it comes to Musgrove. His career, 4.33 ERA, 1.23 Whip. But he shows these flashes of brilliant, Scott. You mentioned the final two starts, double-digit strikeout efforts for Joe Musgrove, but it really was the final five starts of 2020.
Starting point is 00:03:42 He did this as well in 2019. The final month, he just seems to go off. But in 2020, final five starts, 2.16 ERA, 13.7K per 9, 1.8 walks per 9, a 56% ground ball rate and a 16% swinging strike rate. So those are truly elite numbers. So this is just, we are tantalized by Joe Musgrove,
Starting point is 00:04:05 these small sample sizes for him. And now he moves over to one of the best teams in baseball, much better lineup. So the run support should be there. I saw a tweet from Tristan Cockroff from ESPN. And he, I think it was over the past three seasons, Joe Musgrove has had one of the worst run supports in all of baseball. So now he will actually have better run support, a better defense behind him.
Starting point is 00:04:28 I think a tougher division moving over from the NL Central to the NL West. But, I mean, the Padres have done a really good job with their pitchers. They're starting pitcher collective ERA last year, 3.46. That was third best in the majors. They obviously helped to Nelson Lemette get to that next level. So I think the question is, Scott, do you think that they can actually unlock Musgrove's full potential? and if so, what does that look like? They could.
Starting point is 00:04:56 I mean, he's 28 now, so he's not, he's, he's in the middle stage of his career already. He's middle age for a baseball player. But, I mean, you said we've seen flashes from Musgrove from time to time. I thought last year's stretch was the most impressive I've ever seen him. I agree. And, like, his control throughout his career, that's always been there. It's been a, like, it's been a, like, it's been a,
Starting point is 00:05:23 from the get-go, except for last year when he had 3.6 walks per nine innings. Now, a lot of that was early on in the season before he kind of took off. But, I mean, it goes to show that I don't think we've really seen how high his ceiling can be when he's doing everything he's capable of doing. And if he is an elite strike thrower, that means he's going to be efficient, able to pitch deep into games, which is very important, especially now. So I think he's a legitimate breakout candidate. I'm not trying to discount the legitimacy of that.
Starting point is 00:06:00 I just think he's going to be the breakout candidate everybody's on to. And so it'll be hard to get him at any kind of discount, really. I do want to also throw in this idea that the Padres, you know, as hard as they've worked to upgrade their rotation this offseason, you wonder what the rationale is behind that. I mean, obviously no GM can go into the season thinking the starting five is going to be the starting five all year. That's just not a prudent way to do things.
Starting point is 00:06:34 But now, like, there's no obvious in for McKinsey Gore if he shows he's ready. So are they thinking he's not going to show he's ready? De Nelson Lemette, is this an indication that they're worried about? his elbow, they don't have much confidence in it holding up. Are there internal secrets that are driving some of these moves? Are they just wanting to have
Starting point is 00:07:03 crazy depth for their pitching staff? I mean, it makes me wonder. Yeah, no, I think these are fair questions. Of course, the full rotation for the Padres, as of now, U. Darvish, Blake Snell, Denelson Lemette, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddock, and Mike Clevenger in 2022, assuming he returns healthy from his Tommy John surgery. But yeah, this might indicate they don't think McKenzie Gore is where he should be at.
Starting point is 00:07:28 I tend to lean with a prospect with that much talent. I think that they just don't want to put too much pressure on him. They don't want him to feel like he has to have this major role for a team that is obviously contending for a World Series for a championship. So that's just my take on it. but maybe he's just not where they want him to be. Definitely a possibility. And Lamet, you know, I was skeptical when they went out
Starting point is 00:07:53 and traded for Darvish and Blake Snell that there might be something there with Lamet. We know that he has an injury, but so far everything AJ Prellar and the organization has said is he's fine. He's on pace for spring training. Everything looks good. So I guess we'll find out over the next couple of weeks.
Starting point is 00:08:10 Pitchers and catchers report mid-February. I think it's February 15th. So if he's there, I guess things are looking up for Denelson Lament. Just the last point on Musgrove. I tend to agree with you, Scott. I think he can climb up close near the 100 range in terms of ADP. I mentioned, I wrote this up last week, ADP risers on NFBC.
Starting point is 00:08:33 He was inside the top 130. I'm in a draft right now. He went pick 130. Overall, can he climb 20, 30 spots? Yeah, I think that's definitely possible. And maybe even approach that range like Chris Paddock, Dylan Bundy, Zach Granky, which you mentioned. So I'm kind of on par with you there,
Starting point is 00:08:48 and it's a big price tag to pay when it comes to Joe Musgrove. Of course, the full deal, mentioned it was a three-team deal. Joe Musgrove goes to the Padres. The Mets received Joey Lucchese, and the Pirates receive four prospects, including outfielder Hudson Head.
Starting point is 00:09:04 He was a top 10 prospect in the Padres organization. He's only 19 years old. Pitcher Omar Cruz, pitcher Drake Fellows, catcher slash outfielder, adult and Varsho type here. Andy Rodriguez, and they also received reliever David Bednar. So don't really know anything about these prospects. I'm not going to act like I do.
Starting point is 00:09:25 Anything to see here with Lucchese? I feel like he's just pitching depth for the Mets. Yeah, I presume he's there to push Stephen Mats. I don't see him overtaking Stephen Mets. The thing about Joey Lucchese is like the Padres that basically decided they didn't really need to see any more of them. it seems like they barely used him last year. So he has always been a two-pitch pitcher that churve he has,
Starting point is 00:09:52 that change-up curve hybrid. Such an interesting pitch. I love watching it, but it's really all he has. Yeah, I mean, it clearly baffled hitters his rookie year when he had, I think, near 10 strikeouts per nine, but it's been downhill since then for him. He's probably better off as like a multi-ending reliever for the Mets, but he's there for starting depth too
Starting point is 00:10:15 if something goes wrong for one of their five. Some lower level moves. John Lester signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals. His ERA, X-FIPP, and Sierra were all over five last season while his 6.2K per 9 was the lowest of his career.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Big name, Scott, but not really much to see here, right? With Lester? No, not really. It's pretty much I feel like it's the end of the road for him. So the end. Maybe he'll have,
Starting point is 00:10:45 maybe he'll have an Adam or Wainwright resurgence, but I'm not putting any money on that. Not, I'm not doing so either. Tyler Chattwood signed
Starting point is 00:10:53 a one year, $3 million deal with the Blue Jays. And according to roster resource, he is not in their rotation, but there's a chance he can battle
Starting point is 00:11:04 our old friend Ross Stripling for one of those final rotation spots. So Tyler Chowellwood got off to a nice start last year and then I remember he had just one ghastly performance, Scott,
Starting point is 00:11:16 where he just, I think I wound up with like negative 17 fantasy points in a head to head points league when I started Chatwood last year. So, uh, not really excited over him either. The final note I wanted to mention here,
Starting point is 00:11:27 according to Buster Only, the Red Sox plan to be conservative with Chris Sayles return from Tommy John's surgery. All three of Sale, Noah Cindergarde, and Luis Severino had Tommy John between February and March
Starting point is 00:11:41 of last year in 20, based on everything I've read, it sounds like Cindergarde could be the first one back. I've seen Memorial Day as a potential timetable for Cindergarde. If you remember Severino, he was dealing with things outside of just the elbow. He was dealing with like a lad injury. So I think the Yankees are going to be a little bit more cautious with him. Are you interested in any three of these Tommy John recovery patients, Scott, as late round picks in your draft?
Starting point is 00:12:11 It depends how many IL spots. I had how deep the league is. I'm most interested in Severino. I think he had the surgery the earliest, and I think the Yankees have the most incentives to bring it back, and I think he's probably the best of the three at this point. So I do have him quite a bit higher than the other two, but not in a range that'll get drafted in like a standard 12-te-to-head points league,
Starting point is 00:12:37 250 or so players rostered. Tears Week continues here on Fantasy Base. baseball today. Chris is not here to cry or fake cry or whatever he was doing yesterday. But of course, we're not going to go as deep on every player and on each position as we will for the position previews is more so just to get a feel for where players are going, some strategy discussion overall with the position. So let's start off with third base. Scott, your early thoughts on this position. What do you think? Well, if you don't remember this time a year ago, we were talking about how it was maybe the deepest we've ever seen,
Starting point is 00:13:15 an infield position. And I think I did a little exercise where if you factor in all the multi-eligible players at third base, you could fill out an entire head-to-head lineup with third baseman and feel pretty good about it. You couldn't get a catcher, so excluding catcher. And you'd have to dig pretty deep for that third outfielder,
Starting point is 00:13:37 but still, it looked really strong. But the thing is, like, so many players underachieve there in 2020 and ones that I think it's fair to have real concerns about that it doesn't feel so strong anymore. There's a ton of depth in the middle, like all those guys who basically underperforming
Starting point is 00:14:03 and got pushed down to the middle stages of the draft. I mean, any one of them could come back and be a stud for you, but you just don't know the right one to pick, so it makes you reluctant to pick any of them. Yeah, definitely not as deep as we're used to seeing very top-heavy position, as we will talk about right now. There is just a cliff where the tiers just completely fall off. So we'll talk about that right now. And the super elite tier, there's only the return of the super elite tiers today on the podcast.
Starting point is 00:14:34 There's only one player in this tier that is Jose Ramirez, who currently has an ADP of 10.3 over on fantasy pros. he's just awesome. I think we're past that ugly 132 game stretch between 2018 and 2019. He finished as a top five overall player in Roto in two of the past three seasons. Jose Ramirez also finished as a top two hitter in head-to-head points leagues
Starting point is 00:15:01 in two of the past three seasons. He was number two, this past season in 2020. He was the number one overall hitter back in 2018 in points league. So he's not really someone that you have to do differentiate based on format. He makes a lot of contact. He walks a good amount. He hits a lot of home runs. He steals a lot of bags as well. The last 162 games for Jose, 281 batting average, 38 homers, 26 steals. The guy is elite. The only issue, of course, Scott. Super elite, Frank.
Starting point is 00:15:30 Super elite. Thank you. Thank you for the correction there. The only issue is the lineup. Are you worried, Scott? Because, you know, Chris kind of eased my mind last week when we were talking about Lindor leaving. He said, whatever number. I think it was like 90%. There were studies that show like 90% of a player's production just comes from that player. It's not really their surroundings that influence him all that much. So are you worried about that when it comes to Jose Ramirez? And how early would you take him in each format, Rodo and head to head points? Well, not that much. I don't worry about him that much. I will just say that a player who I think is this elite, who is super elite, um, I think,
Starting point is 00:16:10 they're pretty well able to sustain themselves. And a lot of times what you see if a player who can run is in a weak lineup, he tends to run even more. I don't know. I remember this was an issue with Freddie Freeman, back with the Braves first started their rebuild, and he was still awesome.
Starting point is 00:16:28 I was a little worried about Juan Soto entering last season, Scott. There you go. More recent example, yeah. That didn't really matter. No, it didn't really matter. I think it can matter for some players. you know, just because I guess the macro studying,
Starting point is 00:16:45 the big study looking at the whole expanse of the league players across the board, talent-wise, shows that it's 90% of the RBI run production comes from the player itself. Obviously, that can vary from player to player in situation from situation. But I think it's the ones on the high end that you have to worry about the least. Yeah. I agree. I'm not all that worried about Jose Ramirez. Chris really did make me feel better about him. How early would you take him in each format? I believe I have him. Let me think here. I think I have him 11th in both, I think. But you could make an argument as high as ninth, probably. So 9, 10, 11 for me is Trevor Story, Christian Yelich, Jose Ramirez. And maybe even made an argument a little earlier than that in a points league
Starting point is 00:17:45 because I could see taking Jose Ramirez over Trey Turner in a points league. I probably would in fact. So, you know, late first round range. All right, let's move on to the elite tier here. And this includes Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Nolan Aronado, Anthony Rendon, and DJ LaMahue. We spoke about DJ LaMahue a ton yesterday. Use him at second base. But remember that he has three different position eligibility.
Starting point is 00:18:11 throughout your draft. Scott, I love this year. I love this tier of third baseman. ADPs ranging from 21 with Machado down to 35.7 with Anthony Rendon. I do just want to start with Manny Machado and ask, do you think he is overvalued now? Because last year, you could have had him in the
Starting point is 00:18:29 fifth, six, sometimes seventh round. Now, he is firmly a second round pick. He finishes the ninth best player in Roto, the seventh best hitter in points leagues. in the prime of his career, 28 years old, one of the best lineups in baseball, and he does have a manager who likes to run in Jace Tingler. So how do you feel about Machado?
Starting point is 00:18:50 Do you think he's overvalued at 21? Well, I think you're probably buying him at the maximum extent of his potential now. And like, I don't really understand what went right for him last year. It was kind of a situation, kind of like Eric Hosmer, where the thing that you thought, if only he did this differently, he started doing early on.
Starting point is 00:19:12 In Hosmer's case, it was putting the ball in the air more. In Machado's case, it was hitting more line drives. But then that normalized, like with Hosmer, normalized over the rest of the season. My thinking with Machado is that he's so fly ball-oriented,
Starting point is 00:19:27 it just doesn't work in a bigger park the way it did in Camden Yards. And the data seemed to suggest that until last year. So, you know, maybe he's just, he's just such a high level of talent that that, you know, he's kind of immune from park factors and what we saw from him in the second half of 2018 and all 2019 was just a fluke. But I still wonder.
Starting point is 00:19:54 I still wonder. I'd be okay drafting him in the second round. The thing is that you don't need to. And that's why I feel like Manny Machado might be the single player I'm least likely to draft because... Scott, why do you hate Manny Machado? It's not that I hate Manny Machado. It's just...
Starting point is 00:20:11 What did he do to you? I like Alex Bregman, Nolan Aeronado, and Anthony Rendon about the same as him. That's why I put them in the same tier. And I know if I'm picking in the back half of round two where Machado is going to go,
Starting point is 00:20:27 at least one, if not multiple of those other three, Breggman, Aeronado, and Rendon will be available for me early in round three, the first half of round three. And in fact, I got Rendon in round four in our most recent Rodo mock draft. You know, Points League is more Rendon's format than Roto. No, it's still egregious.
Starting point is 00:20:47 He's elite either way. Yes, it's egregious. The fact that Rendon is going in the fourth round, even in a Roto league with batting average, I've seen him go in the fourth round. I've done, I'm currently in my fourth draft champions over at NFBC. It's a five-by-five roto. It's a draft and hold. 50 rounds.
Starting point is 00:21:04 there's no waivers. You just set your line up throughout the entire season. I've seen him go in the fourth round of 15 team roto leagues. I just don't... I just don't get it when it comes to Anthony Rendon. And I've referenced this before. He's part of the reason, him single-handedly, why I am okay starting a draft with two starting pitchers
Starting point is 00:21:22 in the first two rounds, because I know for a fact that I can get Anthony Rendon in at least the third round and sometimes the fourth round. So I don't disagree with what you said. And this is the whole point of the tiering process. is if you think these players are similarly ranked, then you can pull up a starting pitcher into the second round. You can take your Gialito or Aaronola or Max Scherzer,
Starting point is 00:21:46 whoever it might be. You could take that guy in the second round and know that coming back around in the third round, you can still get a really, really good third baseman. So I think that that was well said. I still really do like Manny Machado. He, I think probably still has the highest upside of that group, probably more so.
Starting point is 00:22:03 I think because, of the steals? I feel like we've drafted, we've never drafted Machado as high as we've drafted Aeronado and Bregman at times. And obviously Aeronato and Bregman were the biggest underachievers in this tier last year. So
Starting point is 00:22:17 you can understand people being a little down on them. But I don't think it's fair to say Machado has the most upside. I guess if you factor in, you know, he has the most steals upside. I don't think it's a super high steel ceiling, but it's, you know,
Starting point is 00:22:34 12 to 15 he could steal. And that might make a difference in 5 by 5 leagues. But I don't know. I still say we've never drafted Machado as eyes we've drafted those other two. That's probably right. There's just concerns with Aeronado. He dealt with some injuries last year.
Starting point is 00:22:54 There's always the possibility of him being traded. He's a little bit older than Machado as well. So I just kind of worry about those things a little bit when it comes to Aeronado. Bregman, he dealt with injuries last year too, but was nowhere... But you're making downside arguments now, not upside arguments. No, you're right. You're right about that. So I'm probably just biased because everyone knows that I do really like Machado.
Starting point is 00:23:14 But I think he's probably... I think he's really good regardless of the format. He walked 10% of the time. He doesn't strike out much at all, 14% strikeout rate. So, yeah, I'm making the upside argument for sure for Manny Machado. Between that group, Aronado, Bregman, Rendon, who's your favorite Scott? my favorite Aronno-Bregman Rendon
Starting point is 00:23:36 you said? Yeah, so let's Machado out. If they're, yeah, so like, say Machado goes in the second round, you're on the clock
Starting point is 00:23:41 in the third round, you won a hitter, and you consider these three of the best three hitters, which third baseman would you take? It's Breggman. It's Breggman if I'm forced to choose, but the idea of tears
Starting point is 00:23:52 is you'd rather not be forced to choose. Mm-hmm. Yeah, for me, it's Rendon. I have him ranked as my third, third baseman in both formats, four straight seasons within OPS over 900.
Starting point is 00:24:03 He's probably going to miss 10 to 15 games throughout the course of the season because he always does. But I might argue that he is the safest third basement going in the first three or four rounds. So yeah, it's Rendon for me. It's Bregman for Scott.
Starting point is 00:24:18 The near elite, Raphael Devers. Some might include Devers in that tier above, but I do think he kind of has to reestablish himself. He represents, and this is the drop-off, Scott. This is the cliff. I think after Devers, we just see this huge drop in expectations, in rankings, just in general, in ADP. Because the next group, you're talking about Bizio, who has third base eligibility, but Suarez, Matt Chapman, Gio Orchella, Yuan Moncada, which are fine players.
Starting point is 00:24:49 But we've seen Devers be better than those guys at his ultimate upside. So do you agree? Do you agree that this kind of represents that cliff? And why is he not in the tier before this? he's not in the tier before because I don't think he has quite the same upside as that group. I think he played a little over his head in 2019, and I was saying that at this time a year ago, too. And, I mean, even you look at what he did in terms of points per game last year.
Starting point is 00:25:19 Like, he was an entire point per game behind DJ LaMayhew when Rendon was much closer. And we've obviously seen Bregman and Aeronot would be as good as LaMayhew in the past. So, yeah, I think there's there's a lack, there's less of a track record there for Devers and I don't think the ceiling is quite as high. Yep, continue. So the tier after that is very large and it's comprised of a lot of those guys
Starting point is 00:25:46 who were talking about who underachieved in 2020 or at least, yeah, underachieved. Like Eohenio Suarez, Max Muncie did, Matt Chapman did, John Mokada certainly did Chris Bryant, Josh Donaldson. The two names I skipped over were Kevin Bizio and Gio Orshella, but I think they're both probably at the tippy top of what they're able to do right now.
Starting point is 00:26:17 So I think there's a pretty good chance for all of these guys to bounce back. Moncada was dealing with COVID, and he specifically talked about how it affected his energy level. and everything was down for him. So that makes sense. Chapman, Chapman's coming back from shoulder surgery now, I think.
Starting point is 00:26:42 So there are some concerns with him. Eohenio Suarez had shoulder surgery last January. So you wonder how much that impacted his performance? Max Muncie, I think, is fine. Chris Bryant, he's kind of been on a downward trend for a while now, so I'm really worried about him. And Josh Donaldson, of course, he's old and gets hurt all the time. So there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical for most of these guys even still,
Starting point is 00:27:07 which is why I'm probably going to end up with Gio Orchella most from this group. Like, I don't know why his ADP is still as low as it is. If you were making tiers off of ADP, GORShella wouldn't qualify for this tier. But he's been the same guy now, both 2019 and 2020, really validated that breakthrough last year. And to put it in perspective, I mean, 3.17 fantasy, head to head points per game last That's not even really his format because he doesn't walk much. 3.17, that was two-tenths of a point better than Raphael Devers.
Starting point is 00:27:43 I mean, it was, it wasn't a lead, but it was pretty good. Yeah, and that's part of the reason you point out here that I typically am so starting pitcher-centric and I target so many starting pitchers early and head-to-head points leagues because it feels like either you can find hitters later on in the draft because it's really just a shallow roster in a head-to-head points league where you can find a lot of, you know, startable, viable options later on in drafts or just pick guys up who get hot off the waiver wire. And this is probably the best version of Urchella that we've seen.
Starting point is 00:28:17 You mentioned he's done it two years in a row, he's 29 years old, got the walk rate up to 10% last year. strikeout rate was only 14% XPE I guess that helps in points leagues the lack of strikeouts yeah he hit he hit 298 Urchella did
Starting point is 00:28:32 his expected batting average was 315 his two years in a row where he was he's awesome the best expected batting actual batting average but the expected batting average
Starting point is 00:28:44 backed it up he looks like one of the safest best for bets for batting average in all the baseball and I think he's a pretty safe RBI source I don't know that the power is going to compare to most of these third baseman, but I would expect, if you were putting
Starting point is 00:29:00 the over under a 20, I would take the over for home runs for Urchella. Yes, I would agree with that. I will just point out he had surgery on his elbow to remove a bone chip. I think it was two months ago, last month, something like that. So I do want to see how he looks in spring and how he reacts to that. Matt Chapman, you mentioned. He had hip surgery. So it's hip, okay. Hip surgery is pretty serious.
Starting point is 00:29:28 So I've got to see him in the spring too before I reinvest because things were kind of all over the place with him last year. I'll just kind of put a bow on Raphael Devers. Even if you don't draft him, if he gets off to a slow start, you might want to consider buying low because he has done that now two years in a row, Raphael Devers. 2019, he did not hit his first home run until May 3rd. he hit all 32 of his home runs over his final 124 games. And then in 2020, his first 22 games, he hit just two home runs with a 207 batting average. Final 35 games, a 297 batting average with nine home runs. So two years in a row, we have a sample of Rafael Devers being a slow starter.
Starting point is 00:30:07 You might want to buy low once the season starts. The fallback options, this is a fun group, man. We just have two, I guess you could still call them prospects, right? Cabrion Hayes and Alec Boehm. I call these guys the hype bros, Scott. The hype bros at the third base position. Dude, kudos to you. You were all over Boehm.
Starting point is 00:30:29 You were probably highest on him in the industry that I saw. And he had an 881 OPS across 44 games last year. Cabrion Hayes, we've talked about him a lot. OPS over 1,100 in 24 games with the Pirates. The ADP for Boeom, very high. 109.7. People are excited. Hayes, it's high, but not as high.
Starting point is 00:30:49 155.3. I just kind of worry about, I worry about the lineup a little bit more for someone like Hayes than obviously someone like Jose Ramirez, just because Ramirez is just so established and has such a track record. Hays, we just, we don't have that same thing. So they trade away Josh Bell.
Starting point is 00:31:06 Pirates lineup looks really, really barren, Scott. True. But I want to take care of the player first before I take care. I want to make sure I'm getting the talent of the player matters more to me than the talent of who's around him. And the talent looks great. Like you're giving me credit for Alec Bohm.
Starting point is 00:31:25 I think I'm higher on Cabrian Hayes now. In fact, this was a difficult, this was a stretch in the tiers, regardless of position. This was one of the toughest ones for me to figure out because it's tempting for me to put Cabrion Hayes a tier higher in that tier which you or Shella and Matt Chapin and Yoan Mukada. And then maybe tier out. Alec Bome with some of those from the next year, the last resorts, which includes Justin Turner, who of course has a pretty extensive track record, J.D. Davis, who was very high on a year ago.
Starting point is 00:32:00 It's tempting for me to put Bome with those guys and put Cobrain Hayes with that higher group. So I'm not sure I really see Cibrian Hayes and Alec Bome as being entirely on the same level. There's a lot to like about Bome, but if there are doubts, about Hayes' power production. I think there have to be about Boehm's as well. He homered just four times and his 160 at bats last year. So part of what makes it easy
Starting point is 00:32:29 to justify tiering them together is that Boeem tends to go 50 spots higher than Hayes. So I'm pretty confident Hayes is the one I'm going to get from this tier. But there is some doubt there in my mind that I set this up exactly the way I want it. Yeah, for Boehm makes a lot of contact. Walker was decent, 8.9%.
Starting point is 00:32:48 The biggest issue is he's got a little bit of a Vlad thing going on here, Vlad Guerrero Jr. 53% ground ball rate for Alec Bohm, which has been an issue for him in the minors. In 2018, 62% in rookie ball, 56% at low A. In 2019, he really kind of rectified that, 34%, 47%, 41% ground ball rates for Alec Bohm.
Starting point is 00:33:12 So that got better in 2019 as he moved up levels, but it would be helpful for him to raise the launch angle a little bit there. But I think a lot to be excited about for both Boehm and Cabrion Hayes. You mentioned this last resort tier. Quickly mentioned, Justin Turner and J.D. Davis, Jamer Candelario, Kyle Seeger and Tommy Edmund. It's kind of a boring tier. Candelario did some nice things.
Starting point is 00:33:37 J.D. Davis, you mentioned someone that you were on last year. Stack mess lineup. There are two other tiers. You can find these, of course, on the website. CBSports.com. click on baseball. But one that stands out to me, Austin Riley, Scott, and we've talked about him a lot. Lowered the strikeout rate. Still hit the ball really hard last year. Sneak peek behind the curtain. Austin Riley will be in my breakouts column. So very, very excited about him.
Starting point is 00:34:04 We're going to take a quick break, but quickly, I want to let everyone know that UFC is this weekend. Any UFC fans out there, the notorious Connor McGregor is back. UFSI. 257. This weekend from the Eddie Had Arena in Abu Dhabi. Connor McGregor will be headlining UFC 27 against Dustin Porreier. Connor won the first meeting between the two via first round
Starting point is 00:34:27 CCO, but that doesn't mean we should count out Poriay, who is 10 and 2 since losing to McGregor back in September of 2014. Morning Combat is the place to get all your UFC 257 content, fighter interviews, previews with UFC Hall of Famer
Starting point is 00:34:44 Rashad Evans, and of course, instant reactions to UFC 257 as soon as the event ends. Download and subscribe to Morning Kombat on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stisher, and wherever else podcasts are found, our Facebook group is alive and well. Many people asking questions right now, lots of talking points. In fact, I saw this question from Jim Mitchum on our Facebook group page. He asks, Scott, keep two between Sandy Alcantara,
Starting point is 00:35:14 Jesus Lazzardo, Christian Javier, Dylan Bundy, and Corbyn Bairns. Two of those names, Scott. Alcantara, Lazzardo, Javier, Bundy, Corbyn, Who you got? The two I would keep from that group are Corbyn Bairns. And... Harder, but Dylan Bundy, I think. Would you go Lizzardo?
Starting point is 00:35:38 I would go Lazzardo. Yeah. Keeper League, I just think he has more upside long term. It doesn't sound like there are many players. being kept in this league, though. So I don't worry as much about the long-term ramifications when that's the case. But it's a fair argument.
Starting point is 00:35:54 Scott goes Burns and Bundy, I go Burns and Lazzardo. But the point of this is, be like Jim and join our Facebook group. That's Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. We're going to take a quick break. When re-return, shortstop tears,
Starting point is 00:36:08 and we have your questions. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We'll do that here. Fantasy Baseball today. So we spoke about the third base Scott and how last year it was maybe the deepest position ever, not so much this year. Shortstop might have taken the place of third base, Scott, because I think it's a really deep position this year. Yeah, it's certainly star studded. There are more than enough, I think, must
Starting point is 00:36:35 start short stops to go around in a head-to-head lineup league where you don't have that extra middle infield spot. It, uh, there, there, there usually is somebody. who falls ridiculously because of them because people just don't have a place to slot them in. Let me count it up to be sure. So I'm at 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. Yeah, I got 13 through the next best things. So that would be a group that I'd consider
Starting point is 00:37:03 must start players, basically, and I got 13 names there. Very, very strong position, especially at the top. So let's start with the super elite tier, which includes... Oh, let me add that none of those 13 names are multi-eligible.
Starting point is 00:37:17 So that just drives home to point. They're all shortstop only. That is a very good point. The super elite tier includes Fernando Tatis, Trey Turner, and Trevor Story, with Turner and Story
Starting point is 00:37:28 being a tier lower in points. Points Leagues. Trey Turner just finished as the number one shortstop and the number two player overall in Roto thanks to a seven RBI
Starting point is 00:37:43 game, which he had on the final day of the season. He actually Homer in each of the final two games of the season, but had a nice little seven RBI game to push him ahead of Fernando Tatis, who finished as the fourth overall player in Roto. Tatis, his ADP is three on the dot behind,
Starting point is 00:37:59 only Ronald Acuna and Mookie Betts. Scott, Tatis hit 208 with a 714 OPS in September. How worried are you about that final month for him? Not really. I have him. you know, if we're just, if we're going to do this looking at rankings as opposed to tears. So bourgeois, but if we're going to do that, then I would have Fernando Tatis fourth, the two you mentioned Acuna and bets ahead of him, but also Mike Trout.
Starting point is 00:38:34 But I would still have him fourth, you know, it's enough to remind me he really doesn't have much of a track record yet. but at the same time there were some pretty significant underlying changes beyond just he was really hot in August like his cut way down on the strikeouts he set a new record for hard hit rate by a lot
Starting point is 00:38:57 which I mean isn't so surprising that you see these kind of outlier league leader type numbers in a shortened season but still it's he set the hard hit record by so much over Aaron Judge, the year Aaron Judge hit 52 home runs, was it? And like, Tatis just blew that out of the
Starting point is 00:39:19 water. His launch angle was better. Like, he improved in a lot of the ways. Like, a lot of the hits I had against him at this time this year, just last year just don't exist anymore. And obviously, he's projected to steal a lot of bases in addition to doing everything else. Yeah, he just, Scott, you mentioned the hard hit rate. And I know that that was actually an amazing stat, which you included in an article on cbsports.com 56 amazing stats and it really is an awesome article i went through and read read it today actually i copy and pasted a bunch of them into my notes so i just have them whenever i'm looking of a player so i thought i recognized some of those you pointed out yeah yeah that's how good the article was i'm stealing scott's work i'm plagiarizing him but i told them about
Starting point is 00:40:04 it so it's okay um tautis how hard he hit the ball he he led baseball led all of baseball in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel percentage. He is 22 years old. He is the face of baseball. So I have absolutely no issue taking him as the third player off the board in a roto league. How early do you take him in a points league, Scott? I think for me, I think it's probably in that seven, six, seven range. I would take trout ahead of him. I would take bets. I would take the three elite starting pitchers, Bieber de Grom and Garrett Cole, and I think I would take Juan Soto
Starting point is 00:40:43 ahead of him. Definitely. I'd take Juan Soto ahead of him. I have him eighth, so I would also include a Kunia ahead of him. If I'm putting a kunia ahead of Tatis in a categories league, a Roto League, then there's no reason I wouldn't do the same in a points league. I'll just quickly mention on
Starting point is 00:40:59 Trey Turner. He is 27 years old, and I think this is the best version of Trey Turner that we've ever seen yet. He hit 335 with 12 homers and 12 steals in 2020. That is a 30-30 pace over 150 games. So maybe the Steelers are starting to come down a little bit, but with that, his power and just his contact skills in general,
Starting point is 00:41:24 his ability to drive the ball is better than we've ever seen before. So I think if you want to bypass starting pitchers, I'm okay taking Trey Turner as high as fourth in a roto draft. I wouldn't do that just because I prefer the pitching, but if that's a way that you like to draft, I don't mind doing that. The elite tier, Scott, includes Francisco Lindor and Corey Seeger.
Starting point is 00:41:48 It was a rough season for Lindor. Not what we're used to seeing. He finished as the 11th best shortstop in Roto, just 2.9 fantasy points per game. That was worse than Miguel Rojas and David Fletcher to put that in perspective. So is Lindor a no-go in a head-to-head points league this early? the second round where his ADP currently stands.
Starting point is 00:42:09 I think his ADP is 17. Yeah, 17 on the dot. No, there's nothing in the underlying numbers for Lindor that suggests to me, had the season played out another four months. He wouldn't have finished with his typical numbers. I think it stands out as worse than it actually was because you get these outlier performances in a short season,
Starting point is 00:42:33 like we saw with Trey Turner and this never-before-seen power. like we saw with, I mean, with Tatis to an extent, but I mean, even those two names you pointed out, Rojas especially, like what did he hit?
Starting point is 00:42:46 Like 360? There are a lot of outlier performances at every position that just kind of pushed a more typical performance, but just kind of a little underwhelming like Lendor had. It pushes it down even further
Starting point is 00:43:00 and makes it seem worse than it actually was. You know what? Rojas actually ended up hitting only three, 404. So, you know, I wouldn't expect an 888 OPAS from him again, but it wasn't as exaggerated as I thought it was. Yeah, probably not going to happen from, uh, from Miguel Rojas. Uh, yeah, just in general, I do agree in a roto or a Categories League. I have no problem taking Lindor around the turn, the early second round, points leagues.
Starting point is 00:43:27 I think it's a little bit harder. He doesn't strike out. He makes a lot of contact, but I think so much of his value comes and steals that if he's going in that early second round in a points league, I, I, I, probably would look in a different direction. Is Corey Seeger that direction I would look in? Probably not that early, but last year, Scott, he was going in anywhere from the 10th round,
Starting point is 00:43:48 10 to 12th round range, and we were all over it. We love the value for Corey Seeger. Are you concerned at all with the injuries? Because I think there's still kind of a thing. He missed eight games last year and obviously has an extensive injury history. You now have to use a... pick for Seeger that is 36. So third round,
Starting point is 00:44:11 much different than last year. Yeah, I don't worry about it so much. Maybe I'm just seeing him through rose-colored glasses. Corey Seeger is your version of Manny Machado for me. Maybe. Mine's cheaper. So I do want to clarify with Lundor. I only have him 20th in my head-to-head points ranking.
Starting point is 00:44:31 So that wouldn't be early round two. That would be late round two. But I have Corey Seeger 20. So that means I'm going to more likely going to end up with Seeger probably. That's not compared to ADP. That's a small gap. But I'm fine with that because I tier them together. So I think they are more or less equal in value.
Starting point is 00:44:52 Obviously in a five by five league, Lindor will give you some steals that Seeger won't, at least presumably. But I think the net of their contributions is similar. Yeah. Seeger was the best version of himself. I said that a lot today, but I guess in the smaller sample-sized season, we were bound to see some career performances. He hit 307 with a 585 slug, Corey Seeger did,
Starting point is 00:45:18 and he underperformed his expected stats. 330 XBA, 653 expected slug. So as long as Seeger's on the field, I think he's going to be awesome. One of those 56 amazing stats. You mentioned the XBA, the X-SL, for Seeger last year. Only once has Mike Trout had an slug that high, and Mike Trout
Starting point is 00:45:40 has never had an XBA that high. That is an amazing stat, Scott. So I do appreciate that. Yeah, Seeger, I think, can be 90% Freddie Freeman. Maybe not 100%, but at the shortstop position,
Starting point is 00:45:59 that would be pretty awesome to get. I think it could be 100% Freddie Freeman. Yeah, I mean, he's young enough to do so, 26 years old. He's entering a contract year, I believe, as well. We should mention that. The shortstop position is the year of the contract year
Starting point is 00:46:13 because it's everybody. Trevor Story is in a contract year. Lindorre, Corey Seeger, who else do we have? Carlos Correa is in a contract here. Javier Baez. So a lot of people at this position, we could see some really massive performances
Starting point is 00:46:30 if you believe in that kind of thing. We'll move on to the next tier, the near elite. Tim Anderson, Adelberto Mondesie, who would be a tier lower in a points league, Zander Bogartz and Bo Bichet. Anderson, Mondesie, Bogart's, Boba, Chet. Scott, who is your favorite from this group? And not who's ranked the highest?
Starting point is 00:46:51 Who is your favorite, all-encompassing player expectation versus current costs? Which player do you like most from this group? Probably Tim Anderson, which I... surprises me to say. I guess if I'm interpreting your question as, who am I most likely to draft? It's Tim Anderson. Who do I like most? I mean, I have a soft spot for Bobauchette like everybody does, but I just, I think he's getting overdrafted a little bit. I think he's getting drafted more like he's in the same tier as Corey Seeger and not a tier lower. What if I told you he was being drafted ahead of Corey Seeger? His ADP is say, shut your mouth. That is dumb. Bobauchette ADP is 24.3. Seeger is 36. poor Corey
Starting point is 00:47:38 poor Corey so I've said this about Bichette we did our early shortstop preview I think it was back in November now but I have this feeling that we were saying this similar thing
Starting point is 00:47:51 about Fernando Tate's last year you know it's a small sample size you're drafting Boba Chet at his ultimate ceiling is Boba Chet's upside as high as Tatees the prospect pedigree is there I think he's someone
Starting point is 00:48:04 that can hit 30 home runs with 15 to 20 steals. And this is like upside conversation that we're talking about for Bichette. I mean, it's not something that I would project.
Starting point is 00:48:14 Realistically, 25 home runs, 12 to 15 steals. I think that's a fair projection for Bichette. But if everything works out, you could get 30 plus home runs and potentially
Starting point is 00:48:22 20 plus steals. And if he does that, then Bo Bichette we're talking about as potentially a first round pick for next year. So I kind of get it, but it is still a very high price tag
Starting point is 00:48:31 to pay for him. Tim Anderson, I love, based on the cost, 47 is the ADP. You got him in, I believe it was the fifth round of our roto mock draft last week. So I'm basing it a lot on that and then I'm going to get a lot of Tim Anderson and maybe that was just kind of a fluke occurrence. I don't know. But it does seem to me that people still are hesitant to buy into him even though he's done it now,
Starting point is 00:48:57 two seasons at a row, one being a very short season. And I get that the Babbip was very high in both of those seasons, but he was able to repeat it. I'm less concerned about that. Obviously, he's going to help in steals. Not as much as I want him to, but any little bit of steals you can help, you get can help. So yeah, I mean, I'm going to end up with a,
Starting point is 00:49:19 I think I'm going to end up with a decent amount of Tim Anderson. I feel like we've talked a lot about Adelberto Montesey recently, but we'll dive a little bit more on him when we do our shortstop preview. The next best things tier, we have Glaber Torres, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. And I think this is kind of that cutoff that you mentioned, Scott, where these are, this is the last group of must-start short stops,
Starting point is 00:49:45 but still just a great group here. And Labor Torres are getting at ADP-70. Last year, he was a third-round pick, Javier Baez, ADP-82. He was a third or fourth-round pick in most drafts last season. Dansby Swanson is someone who is ascending. He was outside the top 200 last year, but put together a breakout.
Starting point is 00:50:04 campaign and obviously is part of a great Atlanta Braves lineup. And then Carlos Correa, who we have seen, Scott, have elite seasons. We have seen him post 900 plus OPS seasons two times in the last four years. His ADP is down at 123. This is so, so similar to me as Corey Seeger last year, someone that was getting devalued, underappreciated because of injury concerns, yet Carlos Correa is in the prime of his career and he's entering a contract year. I will have a lot of Carlos Correa in 2021, which is something I did not see myself saying. I was not on him last year, but this is by far the lowest cost that we've ever seen for Correa. Yeah, so this tier is kind of like, so this is the next best things at shortstop. It was, it was the same tier, the next best things
Starting point is 00:50:55 at third base, where it was just a lot of guys who we've seen more from in the past than we saw in 2020. The obvious trifecta here is Torres, Baez, and Correa, who at this time, yes, last year, I think they were all in the leader, at least the near lead, so two or three tiers higher. And they're all in the prime of their career still. I mean, Torres is only 24. So it's a good investment to make, particularly if I draft a shortstop before getting to this trio, I'm still considering this trio, either from my. middle infield spot or maybe even my utility spot because the discount has the potential to be
Starting point is 00:51:39 so great for them. Swanson's inclusion here is kind of interesting. I think he's definitely better than most of who I have in the next tier, the fallback options. So I'll go ahead and mention those names. The fallback options is D.D. Gregorius, Marcus Simeon, Jake Croninworth, and David Fletcher. Fletcher probably be a tier lower in points leagues. So Swanson's definitely better than them But he doesn't have the upside of Torres-Beyes and Correa I don't think at least not Correa and Baez Gregorius was a tough one for me
Starting point is 00:52:15 Because Gregorius was about as good as Swanson last year And I don't think it was in a way that's unrealistic for him to repeat So I was kind of tempted to move Gregorius up a tier with Swanson but then that would also mean tiering him with Baez, Torres, and Correa. Maybe if we're doing most likely scenario, that's fair, but obviously those three have a higher ceiling than Gregorius, and that has to be factored in as well. So it gets a little murky there with Swanson and Gregorius,
Starting point is 00:52:51 I guess is what I'm trying to say, but ultimately I put them in separate tiers, Swanson higher than Gregorius. D.D. wound up hitting 284, 10 homers, 40 RBI with the Philadelphia Phillies last season in 827 OPS was the second highest of his career. I think a lot still comes down to landing spot for D.D. Gregorius, Scott, we know that he pulls the ball so much and he's been helped out by playing in hitters parks the past couple of seasons with the Yankees and obviously with the Phillies and Citizens Bank. So we've heard some rumors about
Starting point is 00:53:23 Cincinnati. They're looking for a shortstop, but they've really been shedding payroll. So I don't, I don't know how much they're going to be willing to dish out for someone like Gregorius, but we will see where he lands. I think he's still a really, really productive player. There are two, no, there are three other tiers that we didn't get to here. The last resorts, the deep leaguers, the leftovers. Again, you can find those on the site. Andres Jimenez, Scott, is someone who is rising.
Starting point is 00:53:49 And rising quickly. I mentioned this draft that I am currently in, and he went in the eighth round. Scott, Anders Jimenez went in the eighth round of a 15-10. team league. So people are getting so excited. I think it's just the speed. Like they're excited about that,
Starting point is 00:54:07 but I still kind of worry about the bat and the batting average in general. So I liked Jimenez when he was going around pick 200. I don't like him as much when he's going around pick 120 here. So worry about that. All right.
Starting point is 00:54:21 We have some questions. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Continue to email us. Send those in. If you have a question, you can drop it in our five-star Apple podcast rating and reviews. I saw someone there recently asked for first-year player draft rankings.
Starting point is 00:54:36 So we'll come up with a little something. I don't know if we'll put together an article on the site, but we'll do a segment on that coming up over the next month or so. First-year player-draft rankings in Dynasty Leagues. This question's from Dan Wright. Got a quick trade question for you. Dynasty Points League. I give Clint Frazier and Tucker Davidson,
Starting point is 00:54:55 who is a top 10 pitching prospect for the Atlanta Braves. I get George Kirby, who is a top 10 prospect for the Mariners. He's a starting pitcher. And Griffin Canning. I have Kyle Lewis, Tiaska Hernandez, Juan Soto, Jared Kalenick, Dylan Carlson, and Ryan Mountcastle currently as keepers in my outfield and utility spots. So I have space to trade away an outfielder. I really liked Kirby based on what Scott and the Welsh had to say.
Starting point is 00:55:25 And I know he's like a year or two away, but is giving up Frazier too much. The deal. Fraser, Davidson for George Kirby and Griffin Canning. What do you think, Scott? No, it's not too much. It's easier to do because it's a points league, giving up an outfielder and getting pitchers back. And it's much, much easier to do when you look at your slew of outfielders there,
Starting point is 00:55:45 especially since I'm presuming it's a three outfielder league since it's a points league. So that's a really easy trade for me to do. Davidson is a lower stature of prospect. I wouldn't put much dynasty value on him at all, as a matter of fact. So definitely would rather have Kirby. And then Frazier for Canning. It's probably an even swap anyway. But I think especially given the context.
Starting point is 00:56:11 Take the trade. So Scott, this one's from Andy Garber's. Give Mike Clevenger, who will miss all of 2021 and Ian Hap. Clevenger and Ian Hap to receive to Nelson Lomet. This is an interesting one, Scott. To totally backfire. Maybe Lament doesn't throw a pitch in 2020, and we end up seeing Clevenger back before Lament.
Starting point is 00:56:36 But I think just as things stand now, knowing what you know, Ian Hap shouldn't be what prevents you from exchanging Clevenger for Lomet. So, yeah, I think you have to take it. Scott says, take the trade. This one's from Ben in Maple Ridge. Maybe I'll make some kind of soundbite, some kind of cool soundbite.
Starting point is 00:56:55 If someone more technologically savvy wants to do that for me and send it in, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Thank you so much. Take the trade. Ben in Maple Ridge. 16 team head-to-head points league. Six keepers with no cost. Guaranteed keepers are Trout, Scherzer, Freeman, Bauer.
Starting point is 00:57:14 Wow, that is stacked. I have to pick two of Wanderfranco, Vlad Jr., Kenta Maida, and Kyle Tucker. I have no first or second round picks, but I have a bunch of picks in rounds three to five. So I am poised to go for it this year. I am a habitual prospector. Don't know if that's a word, probably.
Starting point is 00:57:32 Maybe. I know I should keep Maida to shore up a strong rotation. So really, it's between Vlad, Tucker, and Wander Franco. Hmm. What do you think, Scott? Two, two of those. Maeda, Tucker, Vlad Jr., Franco. I think it's easy to exclude Vlad.
Starting point is 00:57:53 What? I think it's easy to exclude Vlad. I don't love the idea of giving him up, but I think he's, the easiest to exclude here because I mean he's under chiefs in a way I don't know I drop him behind Wander
Starting point is 00:58:10 Franco in in long term rankings no am I wrong it's close I'm doubting myself all of a sudden this is a close one yeah Vlad Jr. versus oh Franco also say this it would be easier to keep Tucker if this wasn't a points league
Starting point is 00:58:29 if it was a categories league then I think Tucker would be a must but since it's a points league I don't think it's a must. I guess what I'm trying to say is I feel like I'd keep Wander Franco here, which is maybe bad process. Like, just because Vladimir Guerrero hasn't been who I've wanted him to be right away, is that he's still more useful right now than Franco is. But I just worry, will we be saying that, you know, four or five months from now?
Starting point is 00:59:01 and I think it's very likely we won't be saying that four or five months from now. Maybe Vladimir Guerrero will break out this year. I love Ken to Maeda, Scott. You kind of want to throw back Maeda. Yeah, he's turning 33 years old in April. And I agree what Ben is saying here.
Starting point is 00:59:19 I think Maeda gives him the best chance to win now, especially in a points league, a 16 teamer. You have picks in rounds three to five. A lot of pitchers are probably going to go in those first 32 picks. So I don't know who's going to be available for you, but I almost want to just say, well, why don't you just keep Vlad Jr.
Starting point is 00:59:35 and Wanderfranco? It's tempting. It is tempting. No, I had the thought, too. Like, before he made Kenta Maida an automatic keep, I wasn't thinking of Kenta Maida as an automatic keep. So maybe he's not an automatic keep. You know, usually six keepers isn't enough for me to say,
Starting point is 00:59:56 okay, there's very little turnover happening in this league. so you have to plan long term. Usually that's not what I'd say, but it being a 16 team league, I think makes it more that direction. So I don't know, I'm kind of with you. I'm kind of thinking Guerrero and Franco here, and if it doesn't work out for you this year,
Starting point is 01:00:18 you're still in good position. You're still in a good position next year. Yeah, not only do you have four fantastic keepers that help you win now, but you have Vlad who has immense breakout potential and you have the top prospect in baseball. I don't know how much he'll contribute this year. Maybe he's a contributor in the second half,
Starting point is 01:00:35 but long term, you give yourself two really great pieces there with guys that can help you win now. Plus, I don't know the trade market in this league, but I imagine Franco and Guerrero both would fetch a bigger return than Maeda would. For sure. This one's from a different Ben, 12-team points league.
Starting point is 01:00:52 I'm trying to decide on my keepers. The players I keep are not tied to losing draft picks, but the league will be resists. set after three years. So this is year two. I get to keep two of these players. Garrett Cole, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Gialito,
Starting point is 01:01:07 Luke Voight, Charlie Blackman, Nelson Cruz. I assume it's one of the top three, two of the top three pitchers here. Yeah, so he gets to keep them for two more years is what he's saying? Yep. Yeah, I would keep Cole and Golito.
Starting point is 01:01:25 Agreed. This one's from Casey Smith. Grade the trade. Grade the dynasty trade. 24-team points league with 50 man rosters, 16 active, 18 bench, 16 minors. No salaries, so all players are equal in terms of cost.
Starting point is 01:01:41 I give Victor Robles and Anduhar, I get Fran Mulraeus and Adam Frazier, points league. A points league? Dynasty. Dude, I don't have, I don't care much about Victor Robles in a points league at all. At all. But do you care at all about Fran Mill Reyes or Adam Frazier is the question?
Starting point is 01:02:00 Well, fair point. This is a pretty inconsequential trade, it would seem. I think my favorite player of these four, even in a points league, especially considering it's a 24-team points league, I think my favorite player overall is Ron Mill Reyes. I agree. So I think I would make the trade just for that reason. Well, grade the trades go.
Starting point is 01:02:23 What would you grade the trade? Oh, grade it? I mean, it's pretty close to a C, pretty close to an I don't care, even swap. I'll give it a C plus. Yeah, I'll go B-minus. I do like the friend Mel Reyeside more. This last one's from Ian. Dear Mario, Luigi, and what's up?
Starting point is 01:02:39 You said C-minus? No, did I say C-minus? I meant B-minus. Oh, okay, sorry. I may have missed heard. God, sorry. This one's from Ian. Dear Mario, Luigi, and Bowser.
Starting point is 01:02:49 Hmm. Where are those guys from, Scott? I don't know. Wasn't Bowser like a third baseman for the Mariners back in? I think that was Mike Blowers, right? Yeah. Now, obviously, this is Super Mario Bros. Yeah, and let's work that in a little bit more.
Starting point is 01:03:05 And when you send your emails in, send us some kind of, I feel like we haven't had these in a while, some kind of clues or whatever, random people that you want to include. Video games definitely work. So if you want to make them video game related, all for that.
Starting point is 01:03:18 Grade to trade, 12 team head-to-head points, Dynasty League. I get Aranola and Cattel Marte. I give Francisco Lindor. There was a character named Bauer, in Little Big League played by Jonathan Silverman. So maybe that's what I was thinking.
Starting point is 01:03:36 But anyway, the trade here. So he's getting Nolan Marte. He's giving Francisco Lendor. You know what? Considering it's a points league, I ring Nola higher than Lendor in a points league just straight up. I know Dynasty context
Starting point is 01:03:53 shifts it a little more toward the hitter, but still you're getting Cattel Marte too. So this is a good trade. I give it a B plus. I like it a lot. I was going to say B plus as well. Get out of my head, Scott.
Starting point is 01:04:07 We're going to wrap there. For Scott, I'm Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today. Danny and Will will be here on Wednesday. We'll be back on Thursday. Bye-bye.

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