Fantasy Baseball Today - This Year's (Blank)! 2026 Sleepers, Breakouts & Players to Avoid! (1/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: January 13, 2026Let's do some 'This Year's Blank' for 2026! Here are the categories: (3:51)- This year’s George Springer (15:50)- This year’s Bryan Woo/Cristopher Sanchez(24:32)- This year’s Byron Buxton/Tr...evor Story(32:58)- This year’s Emilio Pagan(42:28)- News: Gunnar Henderson played hurt(49:26)- This year’s Jarren Duran(57:11)- This year’s Lawrence Butler(1:02:52)- This year’s Aaron Nola(1:00:05)- This year’s Geraldo Perdomo(1:08:50)- This year’s Trevor Rogers Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Hey there, welcome into Fantasy Baseball today.
On Tuesday, January 13th, I am Frank Stamphle, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
today on the show, this year's Blike.
Some in the fantasy industry like to mock this exercise.
I think it's fun.
So we're going to do it and we're going to have fun.
Big news over the weekend was Alex Breggman to the Cubs.
Chris and I did an emergency podcast for that.
Scott wrote a reaction article,
so be sure to check out both of those things for your Alex Breggman once and neat.
Scott much more negative than we were.
I mean, Scott versus Cubs fans,
just a rivalry that will never end.
So I love it.
I didn't think I was alone when it had come up in previous conversations.
I thought we were all in agreement.
Yeah.
Alex Bregman would, you know, he's spent his whole career at Parks most perfectly attuned to his swing,
which, you know, not a lot of raw power there, but he angles the ball well, takes advantage of short porches.
And now he's going to like the worst possible venue for a hitter with that profile.
And I don't know.
I thought when we had brought up the hypothetical of Bregman going to the Cubs,
we agreed it would be a bad situation for us.
Scott, we get it.
You hate the Cubs.
Please stop yelling.
It happens.
Lower your voice.
You leave me in the lurch.
Leave me to take all the slings and arrows for myself.
Yeah, I don't know.
I just can't get it right with Cubs fans, you know.
Anytime I say something negative about one of their guys,
even one of their brand new guys who they hardly leave.
No.
It's time to start crapping on Kyle Tucker.
That's how you got on their good side.
We did.
We did wind up, I think, saying that it was a net negative for Bregman,
but perhaps not as pessimistic as once thought on Alex Bregman.
But again, go check out that.
Let's get into this year's blank.
And up first, we have this year's George Springer.
And by that, I mean, a veteran bat who finds the fountain of youth provides excess value
when he might just be written off.
Let's see what we got.
Scott, you're up first.
This year's George Springer.
Marcus Simeon is my choice for this year's George Springer.
That's perfect.
I mean,
free spot on the bagel boy.
That's exactly the name I had written down to.
That's one of my two.
I have a different name that I'll go.
I have one as well.
But continue.
I'm glad you wrote down two.
So this isn't redundant.
But I guess I didn't realize it was that obvious
because it seems like everybody's written.
off Marcus Simeon.
He's not, it hardly moved the needle in fantasy when he was traded to the Rangers.
And I think the consensus opinion seemed to be, we should have known better to invest in him
again last year for a second straight bad year.
But as I was saying at this time last year, now the underlying data kind of looks like it
always has for Marcus Simeon.
Yes, it is now back to back years with bad top line production for guy who's pretty old.
But remember what's also been part of the equation for Marcus Simeon is that, you know, he kind of has that same Alex Breggman type profile where he doesn't actually make contact.
He doesn't actually impact the ball particularly hard.
He makes contact.
I interrupted myself and changed the wording there.
He doesn't actually hit the ball that hard, but he angles it well and is able to deliver power as a result.
Well, in recent years, even before things went really wrong for Simeon,
we've seen those types of hitters especially suffer early in the year,
April and May when it's colder, when the ball isn't carrying as well.
We've seen good years from Simeon where he struggled in April and May badly.
And so he did last year as well, but from May 30th on,
so we get to the end of May, it's warming up.
May 30th on, Marcus Simeon hit 270, 12 homers, eight steals,
an 801 OPS.
That's in 71 games.
So you can more than double those totals.
25 homers, close to 20 steals.
I mean, it sounds pretty much like Prime Marcus Simeon from May 30th on.
The reason why the full season numbers weren't corrected is because he missed like the final third of the season with a broken foot.
So his recovery statistically was interrupted by injury.
And I think that goes most of the way to.
explaining why I think Marcus Simia could be this year's George Springer, but to take it even
further, yes, he was traded to the Mets. We don't think of that as being a particularly hitter-friendly
environment, but you look at the numbers, the expected home runs by ballpark on Stackcast.
Over the last three years, Simeon's actual home run total over the last three years is 69.
If he had played every game at City Field during those three years, it would be 87.
The expected home runs 87 versus the 69 he actually hits.
So clearly it's an environment that's well suited for him.
I think the reports of his demise were exaggerated anyway.
And so I don't think you have to invest big in Simeon this year at a weak position like second base.
If I don't get one of those early round options, I want somebody who's still capable of early round production.
I think Simeon fits the bill.
Yeah, I mean, it sounds like we're all in agreement, right?
We all had Marcus Semyon written down.
it is eerily similar to George Springer, even down to the age.
Simeon is 35 years old, and it's been a sub-700 OPS two years in a row.
So it kind of looks like he has, you know, hit that cliff and gone off that side of the cliff.
But we would have said the same thing about George Springer last offseason as well.
So I don't think you have to squint too hard to see things come together here for Simeon.
He goes 2020 and then hits, you know, like 250 to 260.
that would be a great outcome for someone who is currently going 254 in the month of January over at the NFBC.
So I like that call out on Simeon.
Chris, over to you.
You have to choose someone different.
Who is this year's George Springer?
Yeah, I'll go with, and I want to pull up the most recent draft data.
So, because I believe my guy is going later than.
Yeah, he is.
271.
That is Carlos Correa, who is only 31.
so a little bit younger than Marcus Simeon and George Springer were at their various points.
But this is a guy who in the past four seasons,
we've had seasons where he's hit 291 and 310.
We had a season where he hit 230.
And then he hit 267 with the twins last year.
After getting traded of the Astros, though, he hit 290.
The underlying numbers have remained, I think, more solid than the actual production.
It was 355, 353 X-Waba last.
last year, sorry, 338 versus 322, actual mark.
The year he hit 236, it was a 327 versus 309.
Still makes a decent amount of contact.
There's still a little bit of pop in that bat.
It's a better lineup and a better home park in Houston than he had in Minneapolis.
I don't think Carlos Correa is likely to be an impact bat,
but a strong source of batting average in 20 plus homers.
I think he can do that.
Yeah.
Yeah, I totally agree too.
We're one season removed from Carlos Correa in 2024,
hitting 310 with 14 homers, a 905 OPS in just 86 games,
so a partial season there.
But he was a name that I had written down here as like honorable mentions.
So I think that makes a ton of sense.
And again, getting back in Houston where that is a great ballpark for right-handed hitters.
So I think that makes a ton of sense.
And the other name I had written down here outside of Semian is Zander Bogartz.
His ADP in January is 229.
He's 33 years old, 720 OPS or lower, two years in a row.
He still had 20 steals, so he's not completely useless.
I don't think he hasn't fallen as far as George Springer had last offseason,
but he still makes a lot of contact.
It was his best barrel rate, best hard hit rate since 2021,
his best pulled air rate since 2021 as well.
So it's another one who, if you squint a little bit,
I could see a near 2020, maybe even a 2020 season out of Zander Bogartz with a batting average.
It doesn't hurt you.
Like 260 to 270.
So I think there's a chance.
Bogarts.
A couple of their honorable mentions here I had written down.
Brian Reynolds, it's really just one bad season.
And the underlying metrics say that he deserved a much better year.
So I could see a bounce back from him.
And J.C. Real Muteau, I think this one would probably surprise people a little bit.
He remains a free agent, but still makes a good amount of contact.
Okay, batting.
average, steals a few bags.
You know, maybe we can get like a 1510 season or something like that out of J.C.
Real Muto.
You might have noticed something new in your feeds.
That's right.
Team previews with somebody who covers the team.
It could be a beat writer, TV personality.
We have short episodes, 10 to 12 minutes long.
Those will be released daily over the next month.
10 a.m. Eastern Time on YouTube, 3 p.m. Eastern Time in your audio podcast feed.
On Monday, we had the Tampa Bay Race with Ryan Bass.
Tuesday we will have a Marlins preview with our buddy Craig Mish.
So look forward to that.
And again, we'll have one per day leading up to basically pitchers and catchers, middle of February.
So that should be very cool.
Our rankings and auction values will be live later today when you are listening to this.
We'll have our top 300s, positional ranks,
AL and NL only auction values for 12 team leagues.
If you play in Roto or a head-to-categories league,
you'll see the tabs on the on the rankings at the top of the screen
roto slash categories that's what you should use if you play in a roto or head to
categories league if you play in head to head points make sure to use our
head to head rankings so there you go boom rankings and how
if you notice a player's missing or something looks wrong let us know
just just yeah just hey where's this guy rather than you know you idiots
why why wouldn't you rang this like it's just
just there's a lot of players. It's a lot of names. Yeah. I probably forgot someone. There's probably
someone in there that I just overlooked. We had to rank like 600 guys for both Roto and head-to-head.
Just let us know. Just drop a note. I was looking through the other day on Sunday,
and I didn't have Michael Garcia in my rankings. And I love Michael Garcia this. I'm like,
how did I miss Michael Garcia's? Someone who's being drafted as like a top 75, top 80 player.
And I don't know. I'm sure there's some.
like notable prospect.
That's probably what it is that I just didn't add the player ID for, you know.
Yep.
Just let us know.
It is one of the fantasy baseball at CBSI.com.
It is one of the curiosities of like the social media age for me where people have
easy access to like media personalities like us where it's the assumption is just,
oh, you are so dumb that you didn't put them in there rather than,
Oh, you committed an oversight by not putting it.
Like, which is the more likely scenario that we've never heard of Michael Garcinia or that we just like something glitched out and end up in there.
I might be that dumb.
I'm not speaking for you guys, but it's a reasonable assumption for me.
Scott, why are you so dumb?
Have you ever seen Alex Breggman play baseball before?
Oh my gosh.
Isok Perrette's Alex Breggman, world of difference.
Also, subscribe on YouTube.
If you have it already, 40K by OPEC.
day. Let's make it happen. We'll take our first break. When we return, this year's Brian
Wu slash Christopher Sanchez right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. I teased
before the break. This year's Brian Wu slash Christopher Sanchez. What does that mean? It is a
non-rooky second year pitcher going in the 100 to 200 range who takes a big step forward. It is a
very specific player pitcher that I'm looking for here.
but I think there were at least a handful of decent options in that range of the pitcher group.
So Chris, I'll give you this one first.
Who is this year's Brian Wu slash Christopher Sanchez?
Yeah, I thought this exercise was maybe the most difficult of the ones that you gave us.
But I'm going to go with Ryan Pepio.
We talked a little bit about it on the podcast with Nick Pollock.
He's got this really good foreseamer that played down a little bit last.
season. I think part of that was just not playing at
Tropicana Field. Well, they're going to be back at Tropicana Field where
he had a 291 X Wobah, a 31% whiff rate with his four seamer.
The changeup is solid. The slider and cutter are decent enough,
but it's really the four seamer and change up combo.
And I think that combo is going to play even better in a
full season in Tropicana Field. The ball moves differently there.
it tends to, I think the right way to say it is it tends to move truer.
There was someone that Nick referenced where they said it was like throwing in, you know,
the training labs that these guys all go to, right?
Like the ball moves like it's supposed to at Tropicanette field in a way that because of
humidity and wind and all these other factors, it's not true in other places.
So I think Ryan Pepio is prime to take at least a little bit of a step forward.
you're at a point where I think you can project 170 or so innings from him if he stays healthy.
And he's actually a very good source of whip for a guy who is not necessarily an impact pitcher otherwise.
So if he just gets that ERA into the low threes range, I think we could see a big step forward from Ryan Pepeyo.
Yeah, I like this call a lot as well.
And I don't know where you guys have him ranked yet, Ryan Pepio, but I have him, I'm willing to go out on a limb and say I might have him the highest.
I haven't met SP 36.
I do like Ryan Pepeio a lot this upcoming season
for the reasons you mentioned
getting back in Tropicana Field.
And I actually was surprised to see
how often he went six plus innings last year.
I just kind of assume Pepeio was like a five and a third inning guy.
He went six plus innings in 17 of 31 starts.
That was more than I thought.
So yeah, I think if he stays healthy,
if any pitcher stays healthy,
I agree, Chris.
I think you can get like 170, maybe 180 innings
out of Ryan Pepio this upcoming season.
So he was one.
He was on my short list of names to choose there.
I do like that call quite a bit.
I think 36 would put him pretty close to the NFBC consensus.
I am much lower on him than that,
but I know I'm well behind the consensus on Pepio,
who, I don't know, maybe Tropicana Field will write a lot of what went wrong last year,
but I don't know how to quantify that.
So I'd rather just kind of stay away.
I don't think the upside is significant for Pepio.
I think he's a, he could be as good.
what is a number three or four in fantasy, but, you know, I rank him more like a number five.
Pebeos, he's number 41 for me, so I'm a little behind Frank, but not much.
Pebio's ADP in January, by the way, over at the NFBC is 146.
He's going right between Emmett Sheehan and Pablo Lopez.
Very interesting, very interesting part of the pitcher rankings right there.
There's a lot of upside types, but there's also a bunch of injury bounceback guys like
Lopez and Michael King and guys like that. So interesting to kind of parse through a lot of those
names. All right, Scott, over to you this year's Brian Wu slash Christopher Sanchez. Well, I knew Chris
wasn't going to take this one because Chris is a noted. Oh, I know who it is. Williams.
Yeah, I mean, that was one of the other ones to consider, certainly. Yeah. Gavin Williams is my choice.
And I was writing up Breakouts 1.0. And I had just written about him before the podcast.
And I kind of enjoy having him as a breakout because it's so hard in 2025 where everybody's working off the same data set to really deviate in any way, especially for breakouts.
Everybody has the same breakouts.
But I think Williams are going to see on a lot of bust lists because he had a 306 ERA last year compared to 428XERA, 408X FIP, or I think 408 FIP, whatever.
All the ER estimators were over four for Gavin.
Williams while the ERA was around three.
And for most of last year, I was kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop too.
But things really took off in the second half for Gapin Williams.
He had a 218, ERA 105 whip, 10K per nine in the second half, and especially over his final
five starts, 174 ERA 106 whip, 11K per nine.
His 61% strike rate prior to those five starts was pretty bad and reason for the concern.
It went to 66%, which is great.
The 11% swinging strike rate prior to those final five starts, very ordinary.
It went to 14%, which again is great.
And what I think happened in those final five starts for Gavin Williams, you saw the sinker usage go way up.
I think it's a similar situation to Edward Cabrera, where it's not so much that that sinker is an excellent pitch on his own, but it helped Gavin Williams get a half.
head in the count and let his other nastier pitches play up.
And that's why we saw both the increased strike percentage, the increased swinging strike
percentage.
Obviously, a small sample.
You could add a sixth start in the postseason.
He was great in that start, 18 swinging strikes, eight strikeouts.
And I think it was the clearest signs yet from Gavin Williams, clearest signs of progress
for a pitcher who throughout his minor league career was regarded as one of the top pitching
prospects because his stuff is so good.
And I think
because some of those underlying numbers
we've come to rely on it look pretty ordinary
for Gavin Williams, he's going to slide
slip under the radar for another year in
drafts if he's going about 150th
overall. I have him ranked a lot
higher than that. I could see
him being this year's
who was it? Brian Wu, Christopher
Sanchez, yeah. The ADP in January
for Gavin Williams is 153.
as of now, so going just behind some of those names
who were just talking about, the Pepio, Sheehan, and Pablo Lopez group.
Yeah, I think Gavin Williams remains an interesting evaluation
for this upcoming season.
Totally agree with everything you said down the stretch
is can he carry that over?
And, you know, can he just keep that control in check?
Because it really, really can be a big problem for Gavin Williams
at times.
But when he's throwing strikes, like you mentioned,
he obviously does have dominant stuff.
So interesting to see where Gavin Williams picks up where he left off.
Name for me here is someone I like a lot and might be a little bit of a preview for Valentine's Day here.
Oh.
Nick Ladolo.
I like Nick Ladolo a lot this upcoming season.
He already had a great year.
He had a 333 ERA and a 108 whip last season right around a K-per inning.
I think the last thing we need to see is just Nick Lodolo do it over a full season.
He did it around 150 innings.
Can we get that up around 180?
He has dealt with just random injury things in the past.
Like, I think some leg stuff and blisters and things like that with Nicolodolo
hasn't really been arm related for him.
And I really like that the strikeouts went up in the second half, too.
It was a 10.6K per 9, 30% strikeout rate that was in conjunction with a pitch mix change.
He threw more curve balls, last fast balls in that second half.
And the Reds have, to their credit, just done a really good job with pitching over the past couple of years as well.
I think the talent is there. It's just if he can do it over 170, 180 innings,
we're looking at Nick Ladolo as like a top 20, top 15 starting pitcher.
Really, if you look at all the underlying metrics, he kind of among pitchers with 150
innings, he already was like a top 20, top 15 SP this past season. So yeah, I am in on Nick
Lidolo as this year's Brian Wu slash Christopher Sanchez. His ADP is a little bit higher than
some of those other names right around 140. And I think I have to have.
have them inside my top 30 starting pitchers for this year. So very excited about Nick Ladola.
Let's move over to this year's Byron Buxton slash Trevor Story. So this is an injury prone
veteran hitter who stays healthy and provides excess value. I think there are a lot of options here.
And Chris, seeing as how you have in the past maybe been a little bit injury agnostic,
let's start with you. This year's Byron Buxton or Trevor Story.
Yeah, I think there are two obvious ones that immediately leapt to mind for me. And they
are a little more expensive than I think some of the other picks.
But when I think of, hey, the only thing the wrong with this player is he can't stay healthy,
it's Yardonne Alvarez and Corey Seeger.
These are, I don't know, two of the 10 best hitters in baseball.
That's not overdoing it, right?
If we were just lining up everyone in baseball, who are the best hitters,
you're not getting to more than 10 before you get to Corey Seeger and Yardon Alvarez.
the argument is that they can't stay healthy. Well,
Byron Buxton couldn't stay healthy until he did.
And if you get 130 games out of Yordon Alvarez and Corey Seeger at their current prices,
which for Alvarez is 41.6.6 for Seeger, it's outside of the top 100, 106.5 in the month of January.
It's just there is so much obvious room for profit there.
And the only real risk that they don't return a profit there is that they're just, they're hurt in May and don't play again.
Which that might happen, but that could happen for everyone.
I have no performance concerns about Jordan Alvarez whatsoever.
I think he's a first rounder when he's on the field.
And so you're going to let me get him in the fourth round.
I will take that every single time.
Yeah, look, it's hard to dispute any of that.
I mean, they are amazing hitters.
It's just they do come with a ton of risk.
Last year, Yordon Alvarez was a borderline first round pick.
Now you're getting him in like the third or fourth round.
And you mentioned with Corey Seeger going outside the top 100.
I think so many people have been burned by Seeger.
You know, burned by Seeger.
He's missed about, you know, 45 games per season, I think, over the past three years.
But, you know, it does kind of add up.
It is kind of annoying.
I get that.
But yeah, when he's on the field, especially in shallower formats,
both of those hitters are still amazing.
Scott, let's go over to you this year's
Byron Buxton or Trevor's story,
an injury-prone veteran who stays on the field and is great.
You have muted yourself, sir.
I don't remember muting myself,
but I guess that's why I didn't remember
to take myself off mute.
Okay, I'll admit I overlooked this category
when you sent us the list of blanks to fill in.
So I'm glad you went to Chris first.
And I think, other than the ones already mentioned, the ones I like for this are, it's between Ozzy Albies and Austin Riley, both of whom I still have a lot of faith in.
But I think, Homer.
I think, unfortunately, there are a lot of Braves coming off down seasons that I have a lot of faith in.
So I am going to get a lot of Homer accusations this draft prep season.
But specifically for Riley and Albys, they both missed major time the past two years with injuries.
And in Alby's case, especially, it seemed to impact his performance.
We talked about this last episode, but he only started to look like Albies again midseason after a lot of people had written him off.
But the power returned.
And then he suffered another broken bone in his hand wrist area that might impede his power early in 2026.
It's impossible to say at this point.
But that's a couple seasons ended early.
And really the last five years have been injury ravaged for all bees.
But it's pretty much entirely broken bones, which are not the sorts of things you expect to keep cropping up.
Like just avoid running into stuff or having stuff run into you and you should be fine.
And even though there have been ups and downs with production for all bees,
it seems like it's a matter of either like last year carryover effect from the injury or just unfortunate timing.
And that's the case for Riley too.
Like when I broke down Marcus Simeon early,
how he was on the road to recovering his numbers following a very familiar pattern from previous years.
And that was true.
That's been true for Riley the past couple years too,
especially in 2024 when he suffered a season injury.
So he just didn't get the full correction there.
But I think skills-wise, they rate about the same as they always have Riley, especially.
Albies, you know, some of the skill diminishment there I think is tied to injury.
But I think given their age, given their lengthy track records of success,
I still have a lot of confidence that they can be standouts at their position this year.
And I'll probably be invested in both Riley and Albies quite a bit.
Yes.
So if we look at ADP in the month of January,
January for those two names.
Austin Riley is going right around pick 75.
Last year he was late second, early third round pick and a lot of drafts.
So you're getting like a 50 round discount on Austin Riley.
50 pick discount, excuse me.
And Ozzy Albies is at 170 right now.
So another one, you're getting a big discount on compared to previous years,
ADP on those two.
This one, maybe I cheated a little bit.
I have a couple of honorable mentions here.
It's really just one year that he's been.
hurt, but I think you're getting a huge
injury discount on him. And that
is Anthony Santander. His ADP is
222 in January and
last year only played 54 games
due to shoulder and back issues.
He was just completely wrecked by injury.
Even when he played, he was awful. I just
he was never right last season. Back at the
winter meetings, Blue Jays manager,
John Schneider said Santander is fully healthy.
He's ready to contribute in
2026. He gave up
some more glowing quotes
about, look, this guy's going to be a big part of
team. We're expecting him to, you know, do big things. And he really does kind of fit into what the
Blue Jays are doing. He makes a lot of contact. He obviously can hit for a lot of power too, where two years
removed from a 44 home run season for Santander. And I think, I don't think he gets all the way back to
that, but, you know, can he approach or even hit 30 home runs this year in a really good Blue Jays lineup?
Going outside the top 200? Yeah, I think that's very doable, assuming he could stay on the field.
So I like Santander as like an injury bounce back this upcoming season. A couple of
honorable mentions here.
Luis Robert
kind of on the fence because I don't know
if he's a good hitter anymore, I don't know if he's a good hitter
anymore, but it sounds like he's going to get traded,
so maybe a change of scenery can help that one as well.
Royce Lewis, it's always been the same
with Royce Lewis, much like Byron Buckson.
Mike Trout, although he played 130 games last year
and the skills are just kind of diminishing there.
And John Carlos Steyn, he missed like the first two months of the year,
but what he played, he was really good, so
I don't think we'll ever get a full season.
Yeah, that's the one that I think it's just that there's just no.
Yeah.
He like physically cannot.
Every other player, I think like, yeah, you could have, you know, you beat, what's Bobby?
I can't remember the quote from the little giants about beating his brother down Cherry Tree Hill or whatever one time.
You know, I can see a world where Royce Lewis stays healthy one time.
It's not going to have a short movie, Little Giants.
You know, that quote that quote that ever.
I'm sure thousands were jumping in to finish the quote for you there.
I can't remember the character's name.
Nobody can.
That's my point.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure Adamizer has made this reference.
I'm sure I saw this movie once when I was, I don't know, eight years old and I have never seen it since.
Noted Braves fan Devonsawa in that movie.
He didn't know he was a Braves fan.
He's a, you've never seen.
I thought it was Devon Sawah.
He's a big Braves fan on the, on the Twitter.
Big breakthrough role, Casper,
as the human form of Casper.
It was the human form of Casper.
Danny O'Shea, Kevin O'Shea.
There you go.
There you go.
Let's hit one more of these before we get to a break.
This year's Emilio Paghan,
a reliever who takes over an ambiguous bullpen
and has a huge season.
So, Scott, I hope you saw this one in the text message
because I'm coming to you first.
Who is this year's Emilio Paghan?
This year's Emilio Paghan.
is
a another
where does his name go
Edwin Useda
Edwin Useda is this year's
Emilio Pagan
and
I was
already talking them up as a
potential closer candidate for the raise
even before they let Fairbanks
go and kind of said yeah
we're just going to go with what we have next year
which makes it sound like a committee
and maybe it'll start that way but I think
the ultimate goal
to hand that role to Edwin Useta, who you may remember at this time last year, I was talking up as somebody who could overtake Pete Fairbanks, because in 2024, 151 ERA, 0.8 to whip 12.3K per 9. I mean, those were clearly closer caliber production, but he got off to a pretty miserable start last year, moved down the bullpen pecking order, and everyone just kind of forgot about Edwin Useta at that point. But you look at his second half.
half numbers.
He fixed it.
He fixed it.
He fixed whatever was wrong with him in the first half.
He looked like that dominant late inning reliever again.
Second half last year, 178 ERA.
0.91 whip 12.7K per 9.
Again, that looks like a closer to me.
So now that it's sounding like there won't be a proven closer for the raise and they're
going to have to piece things together, I think the one who is old.
ultimately going to emerge as the victor.
At the top of the heap is Edwin Useta,
and he's going to get you a bunch of saves in 2026.
Yeah, I thought the free square for this one was choosing one of the raised relievers.
I think they're both really talented,
Edwin Useta and Griffin Jacks.
And honestly, the most likely outcome is those guys probably just split saves for a lot of the season.
But, you know, if maybe one of them falters for a part of the season,
there is an opportunity for one of the other ones to emerge.
So I think both are really talented.
It's hard to say which one will emerge,
but as someone who has drafted at least one share of Edwin Usata already, Scott, I'm with you.
And I'm rooting for Edwin Usata.
So let's make that happen.
All right, Chris, over to you.
This year's Emilio Pagan.
Yeah, Usset is also my pick, but I will also throw.
You know, my initial thought was Kenley Jansen, but I guess his ADP is like 132 in the month of January,
so it doesn't seem to be much skepticism about his role.
Also, he's like the active saves leader.
Well, yeah, but I just, I don't know if he's the closer.
You know, I think he is, but I don't know if that's the perception.
Clearly, it is.
So that was a waste of time.
So I will say Kirby Yates, who I was one of the arguably the best closer in baseball two years ago,
had a really poor season with the Dodgers.
But now he goes to a wide open Angels team.
Wouldn't be the first time we've seen him bounce back from irrelevance to be a very, very fantasy viable pitcher.
So Kirby Yates certainly has that opportunity.
If there's anything left in the tank.
Yeah, I was going to actually do this, originally I was going to do this year's a role as Chapman.
But then I didn't think there were enough options.
It was going to be, you know, veteran who takes over a bullpen and leads, whatever, has an amazing season.
And Kirby, Kirby Yates is like the only one that kind of fit that moment.
So I totally agree with that.
I'm glad you brought him up with rankings, the full release of rankings coming tomorrow.
I got to get Kirby Yates in there because, yeah, I agree.
You should consider him the frontrunner for the Angels.
And you mentioned he was arguably the best closer in baseball,
just looking at some of the ratio stats there two years ago.
It's not the first time he was arguably the best closer in baseball.
There was like a five-year gap in between those two years for when Kirby Yates was an absolute monster in the ninth.
But, you know, that makes it all the more plausible he could, he could rebrand.
as that again.
Something close to it.
He can still get whiffs.
That is not a problem.
16 and a half percent swinging strike rate.
That was his best mark since 2020.
He only threw four innings that year.
But yeah, that was a great number for him.
He just got crushed with homers.
He allowed a ton of barrels, nearly two home runs per nine.
A ton of fly balls.
It was not like bad luck.
He had a 25% ground ball rate or something.
No, it was deserved of Kirby Yates last year, the struggles that he had.
And, you know, he's going to be 39 in March.
so I get it, but the Angels bullpen feels wide open right now, Scott.
Make sure you have, you know, all eight possible Angels options in your relief picture rankings.
You know, I've got like Drew Pomeranz and Robert Stevenson and Jordan Romano.
Who knows?
My guess is Kirby Yates right now, but yeah, there are lots of possibilities there.
The name for me here is, I don't know if White Sox manager Will Venable would actually commit to one guy.
He seemed all over the place last year with.
his save situation usage, but I am intrigued by Grant Taylor. He had six saves, he had nine
holds. The surface level numbers don't look great, 491, ERA 142 whip, but if you take a peek
under the hood, a 142 FIP, 299 XERA, 13.3K per 9, 13.4% swinging strike rate. He averages 99 miles
per hour on his fastball, which has a 32% whiff rate. I mean, that is just a massive number for
a fastball. And Grant Taylor looks like he has maybe one of the best fastballs in all
baseball. He also has a nasty curve ball that had a 37% whiff rate last year. So I think the
most likely outcome again is the White Sox just kind of mix and match. But I think Grant Taylor
has a ton of talent. And if they ever wanted to just kind of lock in one guy, I could see it
happening with him. A couple other honorable mentions here have Robert Garcia. I guess he's
kind of the incumbent right now for the Rangers anyway. Riley O'Brien, same thing with the Cardinals.
And then I listed off a bunch of Angels guys here.
the debacks don't do anything else, maybe Kevin Ginkle could take it over. I think he's
probably still got the best strikeout stuff in their bullpen, but that is a really,
really bad bullpen right now. It is kind of crazy how many closer roles just appear to be
unfilled at this point. Like, oh, well, it's clearly not going to be that guy. So who's it
going to be? But then you look at the free agent market and there aren't any like surefire
closers out there anymore. So I don't know. Something's got to give because I have a hard
time believing the Diamondbacks and Rangers especially will go into the season.
Those are competitive teams. Even the Giants too, right? Like the Giants traded for Raphael Devers last
year. They haven't done too much this offseason. They've signed a few lower-ed pitchers,
but they're just going to give Ryan Walker the closer job again after he was terrible last
season. I mean, he kind of looks like the incumbent right now, but I'm not so sure he deserves to
have that role. So they just don't have anybody else in their bullpen. So I think the Giants
are definitely in that mix as well.
Let's take our final break.
When we return, we'll get into some news items from this past weekend.
We'll wrap it up with a few more this year's blanks.
And we'll do that right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
Let's hit some news and notes from the weekend.
Again, we did a separate podcast for Alex Bregman.
Make sure to check that out.
Gunner Henderson revealed Thursday that he played through a shoulder impingement for,
quote, pretty much three quarters of the year in 2025.
He also started the season on the aisle with that intercostal strain.
And so we've pretty much figured he was playing through something all year,
as bad as the season was for Gunner Henderson.
And I guess if you needed another reason to buy back in on him as, you know, a one-two turn pick,
this is it.
Any thoughts on Gunner Henderson?
I have a little bit of concern that he's not quite like a first round caliber hitter.
You know, he's kind of defaulted there the past couple of years.
But when you actually look at the track record,
it's really only that first half of 2024 when he's hit that at that,
at that level. Then there was a big step back in the second half. He's been very good still,
but he's been more like a third round caliber player. But obviously he dealt with the intercostal
strain. Now we learn about this. I do think it's primed for Gunner Henderson to have a bounce back
season. Any kind of dip in his price, I think is worth buying. And his ADP is 15. I think that's fine.
I think that's a perfectly reasonable price to pay for Gunner Henderson. Totally with you. I think
that's totally fine for Gunner Henderson. I think after
Glendor and Julio Rodriguez and Fernando, maybe even Fernando Tatsista
in the same tier, I would expect something like a 270, 25, 25 season
out of Gunner Henderson. And the counting stats should be really good too. They just
added Pete Alonzo and Taylor Ward. So looking at a big bounce back here for Gunner
Henderson. The debacks have been busy first. They revealed that they will not be
trading Cotel Marte this offseason. They were fielding offers, but
it appears they set a soft deadline to get that done and apparently no trades to their liking so they wind
up keeping Cotel Marte. Next, they traded Jake McCarthy to the Colorado Rockies on Saturday in exchange
for pitcher Josh Gross and I don't know. Yeah. I don't know. Maybe McCarthy can do a little something in
Colorado, Scott. Any very deep league interest in Jake McCarthy? I mean, sure, very deep leagues. Like,
It's wide open there.
The lineup is, it's pretty gross, actually.
And so you could certainly see Jake McCarthy playing a lot more in Colorado than he did in Arizona.
It's still theoretically a great place to hit for his few good hitters have played there in recent years.
So, yeah, even as like a fifth outfielder in deeper rotisserie leagues, you're looking for batting average and stolen bases laid.
It's not a bad gamble.
I kind of hope he doesn't end up taking a batts from Mickey Moniac, who himself was strangely not playing as regularly as he could.
But I really like a lot of the underlying data for Moniac.
I've warmed up to him as a sleeper with playing time, I think, being my biggest concern.
So hopefully McCarthy doesn't take playing time for Moniac.
For whatever this is worth on January 13th, the current projected outfield and DH for The Rock.
is Brenton Doyle, Jake McCarthy, Jordan Beck, and Mickey Moniac in there.
I still would like Zach Veen to get an opportunity here.
As of now, it doesn't look like that will happen, but...
I think you're the last one left, Frank.
I was...
I was still there.
I'm still there, baby.
I was in my top 100 prospects year after year.
He was pretty good at AAA still.
I wouldn't bet on it, but like, who's the DH for the red?
I guess.
Navoniac in there, yeah.
But there have been
Brenton, yeah.
There have been whispers of
a Brenton Doyle trade, so
yeah, could open some things up there.
We'll see.
Max Kepler was handed in 80-game suspension
after testing positive for PEDs.
He's still a free agent,
so probably won't sign until later this season.
Alex Cora said he expects
Wilson Gertes to hit cleanup for the Red Sox this year,
which was maybe the expectation,
but nice to kind of get some confirmation there,
and it's a great spot in the lineup, obviously,
in a great ballpark for a right-handed bat.
So good news for Wilson-Kutreras.
Nick Piacoro of the Arizona Republic reported that prospect,
Ryan Walshmit could break camp in a starting outfield role
with the debacks this season.
Walshmet is 23 years old, first round pick in 2024.
He hasn't not played above AA, but he is older,
so I don't know that it matters too much.
This season he hit 289, 419 on base percentage, 18 homers, 29 steals, almost as many walks as strikeouts.
Chris, any deep league interests in Ryan Walshman here with the debacks?
Yeah, I think if he ends up making the team, there's some speed, some pop.
It's unlikely, I would say, that he's ready to make an immediate impact.
But if he's going to get that opportunity, he's a legit top.
100 prospect. He's, you know, it should be a pretty good lineup. I think with Catele
Marte staying around especially. You know, we kind of went past that one, but I actually think
that was pretty big news for Herald O Pardomo, who needs that lineup to be very good to live up to
the expectation that I think the three of us have for him, less so the rest of the fantasy world.
but yeah
I think
anytime you can get a player
in that line
they've just created a ton of volume
over the years
even when the talent
hasn't been that great
so yeah
I think Walt Schmidt
would be pretty interesting
if he gets the chance
if you're wondering
about Jordan Lawler
by the way
he's expected to
play center field
this spring
in addition to
the infield
so they're trying to find
ways to get
Jordan Loller
in the lineup
hopefully he could take
advantage of that
not trying hard enough
if you ask me
Hey, you know what?
They haven't re-signed a Eugenio-Swarres.
Yeah, they don't have anybody else at third base right now.
Yet.
Yet.
True.
I noticed nobody else has signed Eugenie O'Swarez either.
True.
The Dodgers signed Andy Ibaneos to a one-year deal, so I know he's mashed lefties.
He'll be a short-side platoon bat for them.
We had some reliever signings.
The red signed Pierce Johnson to a one-year deal.
The Cardinals signed Ryan Stannick.
And the raise acquired Ken Waldichuk and Brett Wisely from the Braves
in exchange for a player to be named later,
cash considerations. Waldichuk is 28, a former top-ish prospect with the Yankees back in the day.
It's never really worked out in the majors. He also, I believe, had Tommy John surgery, so
feels like a depth piece for the raise, but with their pitching labs, sometimes they
find ways to make things work with these guys. Let's get back into this year's blank, and we have
this year's, we did the positive ones, let's get into some of the negative stuff now.
This year's Jaron Duran, a player that we just
bought in too hard coming off the career year.
Scott, we will start with you.
This year's Jaron Duran.
I don't like to say it because I think you got to take this guy in the second round.
I'm sure I'm going to take him in a number of leagues myself.
There could be,
there are three different guys you could be talking about.
Well, I think the one, one of them had an established track record already.
And he blew it out of the water last year.
It's Cal Raleigh.
Yep.
I think he's worth a second round pick.
I think he's going to hit between 45 and 55 home runs
and clearly be the number one catcher in fantasy again.
But if we get to the end of 2026 and we see that instead he hit 230 with 34 home runs,
which is basically the guy he was prior to last year,
I don't think that would be the least bit surprising.
I think I think I can imagine myself sitting here,
well, not here because this is an Airbnb,
but you know,
sitting in front of this microphone in eight months
and say, yeah, I feel like I should have known better on Cal Raleigh.
But I'm willing to get hurt for the upside of a, you know, MVP caliber catcher.
And the ADP for Calioli in January,
were 17.6.
So again, you do have to pay that price tag.
It's a mid-second round pick for those who play in a 12-team league.
And this is an interesting exercise because I agree, Scott.
Like, I wrote down names here that I don't necessarily think are not going to be worth
their draft costs right now.
But you can make the case against them and say, all right, well, coming off a career year,
you know, blah, blah, blah.
So, yeah, I totally get what you're saying there.
Chris, over to you this year's Jaron Duran, a player who maybe we are buying in too much on the career year.
Cow Raleigh, Nick Kurtz, Pekker Armstrong, Kyle Schwarber.
I think all four of those are good choices for this.
I think all four of those guys will almost certainly be worse next in 2026 than they were in 2025 on a per game basis,
obviously with Nick Kurtz because he didn't play the full season.
It's just unlikely that any of those guys, like, Kyle Raleigh is probably.
not a true talent 60 homer hitter.
Nick Kurtz is probably not a true talent
1,000 OPS guy because
if he is, he's one of the five
best hitters in the history of major league baseball.
He probably isn't that.
Pete Kromchrom probably isn't just a
35, 35 guy forever.
Kyle Schwerber probably isn't a,
what do we have, 58 homers?
Kyle Schwerber and Cala Raleigh have very long track
records of not being what they were last season.
The smartest bet possible is
that they are not what they were last season.
Now, if they are what they were
last season, they're actually discounts at their price because we're not paying full face value
for any of those guys. So I think that's fine. I think all these players prices are more or less
fine. I'm not likely to draft any of these four guys though. I'm just like a few. I think in the
rankings, I'm like two or three spots overall below ADP on every single one of those guys.
Now, the guys that I actually think are very unlikely to repeat last season and are likely to be
big disappointments this year. I would say, are recounting pitchers? Freddie Peralta feels like
the just the most glaringly obvious he's not going to do this again. Like I'm actually shocked
at his price because we're usually really good at the, well, his ERA was great and nothing else
changed. So we'll fade it. And with Freddie Peralta, we're just not doing that collectively.
So I loved Freddie Peralta when he cost the 110th pick last year. And I hate that he's like
the 65th pick or 70th pick or whatever it is now. And then Trevor Story.
I just don't think the skill sets particularly strong.
We saw a couple of months last year where he was really bad.
I know for the most part he was awesome.
But that's another one where the injury history and the track record just make a top,
close to a top 100 pick, a little hard to justify for me.
I thought the free square for this exercise was Geraldo Perdomo.
And that might just be, you know, the-
He's not going early enough.
Like, he's too discounted.
That's the difference of opinion.
Like, I know you guys are.
are still in on Perdomo here.
His ADP in January is 77,
and he was like a top 15 player overall last season.
So that obviously is a discounted price based on where he finished.
But I've said this before.
I have a hard time.
I know the expected stats mostly back it up.
I have a hard time seeing enough in the underlying metrics to back up what
Perdomo did.
I mean, especially the power.
I could see a scenario where we look back and he goes 50s,
1515 and doesn't get, you know, the crazy plate appearances that he just did.
And so the counting stats are not as good.
And as a result, I have him lower than his ADP.
So I'm probably not going to be drafting him.
Wow.
But that scenario you laid out, he might still live up to his ADP is the thing.
70.
Yeah, I mean, if it's a good batting average and the counting stats are like,
if he goes 1515 and like 80 plus 80 plus with a 280 batting average,
he might still be worth that.
You're right.
Yeah, but I, Haroldo Perdomo, based on what he did, if we just, if we were analyzing like we did in 2003 and, oh, Geraldo Prado Prado just did this, okay, I'll draft him in the second round.
That, that's probably what he deserves because of what he just did.
Okay, I've discounted him to like the fifth round, but ADP has him like the seventh round, right?
Yeah.
Like, yeah, I, I am, relative to the consensus, I am bullish on Pardomo.
Like, yeah, he overachieved, but there comes a point where it's like, I'm willing to bet on him backsliding only a little as opposed to the maximum amount you guys are expecting.
Can I, oh, I'm not expecting him to bounce, but to slide back.
I'm, I fully expect Herald O'Prodome to be very good.
Can I share my favor, Heraldo Pardomostat?
Yes.
In his Major League career, he has 16 batted balls that traveled 400 feet.
16 of those in, I don't know, five seasons, more or less.
Nine of them came in 2025.
Nine out of 16.
Six of the nine came from August 13th and after.
I don't necessarily think that that means.
Geraldo Portomo is suddenly a power hitter, but there was some kind of tangible change in the
power that he was producing in the second half of last season that makes me a little more
willing to buy into, a guy who I was already pretty willing to buy into.
Fair enough, a few other honorable mentions here. I don't necessarily believe that these guys
are going to let you down, but it just wouldn't surprise me. We're buying off the career year here.
Bryce Terang
Like maybe the quality of contact
Just comes down
And you know
He just doesn't get back to running as much
And Riley Green
Like the strikeouts went up
If the power
Comes back closer
Where he was at in 2024
If it's like 25 to 30 home runs
Maybe he's not worth like a top 70
Or top 60 pick wherever he's going right now
So we already saw that
In the second half with Riley Green
It didn't really get talked about much
But he had a sub 700 OPS
Yeah after the All-Star break
All right this one
This year's Lawrence Butler
a player who does not live up to the hype machine.
This one is, we're going to get ourselves in trouble a little bit with this
because, look, obviously players are hyped up for a reason.
There's a lot to be excited about, but man, we all just, not all of us,
but the people who bought into Lawrence Butler,
it obviously did not come to fruition.
So Chris, we'll start with you this time this year's Lawrence Butler.
So I think Ben Rice feels like the most obvious one
just because of how much the price inflation.
Like, just like, where are we at?
January 47.1 as the 43rd player that that's Ben Rice um that stuff he is I just ahead of
Wyatt Langford who I think is another possible option for this he's ahead of Matt
Olson and Raphael Devers he's like 20 picks ahead of Raphael Devers 13 picks ahead of
Rafael Devers, but 15 picks in the overall.
And then I will also say, and this is my actual pick, even though I think this guy is a good
bet to become a superstar hitter.
Roman Anthony.
Now, this is very different from Lawrence Butler because Lawrence Butler had a lot of
speed to fall back on.
The problem with Roman Anthony, I think he's an awesome player.
And I think he's going to take a step forward.
I love the plate discipline.
I love the raw power.
But it's raw power that he has.
He does not have actualized power yet.
He has not figured out how to hit the ball in the air to the pole side.
He is a left-handed hitter at Fenway Park.
So that's a very, very difficult place to hit for power as well if you're a lefty.
And there is no speed to fall back on here.
I guess he stole four bases in 71 games.
Maybe you can like squint and get him to 10,
but it's unlikely that he's going to be much of contributing and stolen bases.
And so if it's more like his two,
58 expected batting average.
And it's decent, but not great power.
Are we going to be thrilled with a 23 homer, 265 hitter who walks a bunch and doesn't
steal bases?
Not necessarily.
I want to be clear.
I am very bullish on Roman Anthony's skill set.
I have him ranked as a top 50 player.
Top 45.
There's not a lot of room for margin for error at his price right now.
And we've talked about this before, Chris.
It's another one of those like head-toe points versus Roto conversations because I think Roman Anthony is going to be a monster in points leagues right away.
I think he's going to walk a ton.
He's expected to lead off.
He's going to score a bunch of runs.
He's going to get the plate appearances.
Those extra base hits that are not home runs, as you mentioned, are going to be doubles or triples.
So, yeah, I think in a points league, Roman Anthony is going to be fine.
But you're right.
In a Roto or Categories league, will there be enough power or speed right away to justify a top 50s?
50-year top 60 pick. Yeah, there are legitimate questions there, I think, for Roman Anthony.
Scott, over to you. This year's Lawrence Butler, a player who does not live up to the hype machine.
Well, really quick, like, I was torn between whether to put Roman Anthony as a breakout or a bust,
and so I ended up just leaving him off both lists. I've done that. I ended up leaving him off
both lists. I think the most optimistic thing you could say for him is six of his eight home runs
came in his final 21 games.
So maybe he figured it out right then
how to actualize that power.
Obviously, the season ended early because of injury.
And also on Ben Rice,
like I think that is the closest comparison
to Lawrence Butler,
just how his cost is escalating exponentially
to the point that all of us who love him,
I love Ben Rice.
I think he is perfect.
But I'm not going to be able to draft him
if this continues.
I'm just not.
You're pricing me.
me out of it. And look, that's how I felt about Butler last year. And Butler busted, at least to a
degree. So it could happen for rice. I like rice even more than Butler, but it could happen still.
My actual pig here, I'm going to go with Jacob Mizorowski. And I will try to sum it up quickly
because I knew we're running out of time. So Jacob Mizorowski, I just don't think he's figured
it out yet. I think the fastball is very exciting. But 606 ERA.
in his final eight appearances.
Five of them were less than five innings.
So they were unusable.
The walks were an issue.
Just an 11% swinging strike rate during that time.
I'm not sure the secondary arsenal is fully fleshed out.
I think Jacob Mizzerowski has some great years ahead of him.
I'm just not sure 2026 is going to be one of them.
Yeah, and I guess, like to your point about Ben Rice,
I like the pitcher Nolan McLean a lot,
but he's already being hyped up a ton
and his ADP is inside the top 100.
He's going ahead of Framber Valdez.
So that's my pick for this exercise.
I have both him and Yuri Perez.
I spoke about Yuri Perez recently on,
we did like an overvalued podcast.
Chris and I did.
So you could check that back for Yuri Perez.
But McLean, it's just like the price keeps rising.
I don't think it's going to stop rising
throughout draft season.
And it's just a lot to pay for someone
who's only made eight starts.
And I do have some questions.
questions about the strikeouts too. Yes, it was a near 11k per 9, 30% strikeout rate,
but a 10.9% swinging strike rate doesn't exactly support those strikeout numbers. So
maybe the hype machine will get a little bit out of control here on Nola McLean.
Let's do a little rapid fire. We'll quickly just give out some names on these last couple here.
This year's Aaron Nola, so a veteran pitcher who just falls off a cliff. I wrote inside the
top 100 and then I think I wound up cheating a little bit. It was, it was, it was,
was hard to find someone in the top 100, at least for me.
But we'll just go quickly here with names.
Chris, this year's Aaron Nola.
I feel like we've all just forgotten Nick Povetta's very, very long track record beyond last season.
He was great last season.
He probably overperformed.
It was a 399 XERA compared to a 287 ERA.
I know it's a great ballpark, but the things that have derailed Nick Povetta have not completely disappeared.
and he's a top 90 pick, so I'll fade him a little bit.
Scott, this year's Aeronola, a veteran pitcher who kind of falls off the cliff.
Robbie Ray, he crashed pretty hard at the end of last year and not just in terms of ERA.
Given his propensity for injury, the much wear and tear done on his arm,
not sure there's much left for Robbie Ray.
I think two, at least one that feels very obvious to me is Luis Castillo.
it feels like he's this kind of,
he has walked that line for a while now.
And it looked like it was happening.
He had a four-star stretch with an ERA over 10 in August,
and then he finished strong.
But the fastball velocity and effectiveness
has been declining for a while.
And the other name I wanted to bring up is Sunny Gray.
I think it's kind of similar to Luis Castillo.
The Cato Walk is very good for Sunny Gray,
but his fastball velocity last three years,
92-9, 924, 91-7.
And last year, his fastball got destroyed.
And now he's going back into a big market.
I don't know if this is, you know, if this actually matters or not.
But he pitched for the Yankees in a big market before and it did not go very well.
And now he's going to the Red Sox.
And, you know, I just kind of have some question marks about that as well.
Strikeout rate backed up in a big way last year too.
He went from 30 plus to like 26% last year, I think.
So like kind of everything moving in the wrong direction for a 36 year old.
Yeah, he had some big blowup starts too.
His second half was not good there with Sunny Gray.
So two names there for me.
Then we have two wacky ones here.
You guys could just give me a name.
This year's Geraldo Perdomo.
It is almost impossible.
Somebody going outside the top 400 who can return top 50 value.
I kept it at 50 even though Perdomo was like a top 20 player.
So Scott, a name.
Someone outside the top 400 who can provide top 50 value.
I'm going to give you two.
Because I think one is more likely to.
He's technically going outside the top 400.
and that's Carson Binge, Mets Outfield Prospect,
who may make the team out of spring training.
The reason why I think it's cheating
is because if it becomes clear,
he's making the team out of spring training.
He's not going outside the top 400.
So I'll mention Carson Binge,
but I think the one that's more in the spirit of this comp,
Dominic Canzone.
Love it.
Okay.
I love it.
The bat of all stuff for Canzone is really good.
I think I took him as my last pick
one of my gladiator drafts is like my utility hitter or something.
So yeah, he is, that's a sneaky call there.
Scott, I like that quite a bit.
Chris, over to you.
This year's Geraldo Pardomo.
Yeah, I've got Carson Bend, ranked 251st overall.
I think it's basically a given that he's in their opening.
Like, he needs to have a disastrous spring to not be in there.
So I think people are just sleeping on him in the traditional sense of the word.
I will also, speaking of the word, sleeper, I put out my sleepers 1.0 column on Monday,
on CBSSports.com
and I will just name
three of my deep sleepers
because I also included deep sleepers.
There are 21 names in there.
I will mention
Jordan Lawler,
Tristan Kassas, and Christian Moore.
In that order,
would be my preference to rank them.
I still like Jordan Lawler a lot.
I still think,
I don't know if the Diamondbacks do,
which gives me a lot of pause.
There seems to be a lot of reason
to think.
they don't but his approach is still good he still hits the ball hard to the pull side he makes a lot
of contact there's a lot of athleticism there i just i just want to see him get a real chance
because that's what he has like everybody's sick of hearing about jordan lawler and he's got like
what 70 played appearance at the major league level and it's been very sporadic so i just want to
let's see it happen tristan caesar's let's get traded uh and give him an actual chance
And then Christian Moore, I don't know, they might have, the angels might have just screwed him up.
I'm a little worried about that, but he got angels.
Yeah, I still like the talent.
Yeah, this is much easier to choose young or prospect-e type players going in this range.
So a prospect that I think could do this.
Actually, one with a pitcher.
Robbie Snelling, I'm just, I am all over this.
I love the skill set.
He looks like a workhorse already.
I think he's going to be in the Marlins opening day rotation.
If you're looking for a vet, how about Nolan Gorman, right?
I think they're going to trade away some of their other pieces.
Aronado, I think he's going to be God.
Brendan Donovan's going to be gone.
Gorman will have an everyday role.
Just, what do we got?
Three years ago now, he hit 27 home runs.
Look, he has not been very good the past two years.
He's actually been quite bad.
But maybe just with everyday playing time, we could see him get back on track.
I'm just rooting for him so we can make some and or references.
I know neither of you guys have watched that show.
Love it.
You should because it's like maybe the best TV show ever made.
But there's a locale called Gorman that features prominently in season two.
Find you someone who loves you, like the Cardinals' front office loves Nolan Gorman.
They've refused to quit on that guy, always looking to get him more regular bets,
even though the more he gets, the less he seems to deserve them.
And the last one, this year's Trevor Rogers, a potential league-winning pitcher that nobody sees coming.
and maybe he had a great season once before.
But those stipulations are kind of hard to fill here.
Scott, who could be this year's Trevor Rogers?
He gave me a narrow path and I ventured off of it a little bit.
But I was emphasizing the nobody's really expecting anything from him,
angle of this.
And I landed on Shane Smith of the White Sox,
who finished last year very strong.
You look at the second half numbers, more than a strikeout per inning.
The whip is just a little over one.
The ERA's in the low threes.
And digging a little deeper, those last two months, so the same span of time,
the curb ball whiff rate was over 50% in both of him.
Like, it took off.
And he took on a nice workload that I think will allow him to, you know, be a workhorse this year
if the White Sox led him.
and I think Shane Smith could be a surprise standout in fantasy this year.
All right, Chris.
Over to you.
This year's Trevor Rogers.
I think Reed Detmer's fits the spirit of this question extremely well.
He is, I think, likely to be in the Angels rotation as of now.
That's what Ross the resource has.
He was really good out of the bullpen last year.
We've seen flashes from him.
I have steered
hopefully not that many of you wrong
on Reid Detmer's many times over the years
but he is so cheap that it doesn't matter
if he's bad you just cut him after one start
but he'll be on my yeah sure let's throw a dart
in the final round and see if something happens there
that's Reed Detmer's and then
I feel bad that Scott's getting so much guff
for being a homer
and doubling up on Braves with one
his earlier picks. So I will join him and mention both Reynaldo Lopez, who is completely forgotten,
but is expected to be healthy from his shoulder injury. I thought you were picking Marlins here.
You're saying you're also picking Braves, which actually, you know, supports me all the more.
Exactly. I'm a supportive. There are legitimate reasons to be optimistic about these players.
I am less optimistic about Reynaldo Lopez. I'm not, I mean, I was not. I was not.
optimistic about Trevor Rogers this time last year.
But Randolpho Lopez had a sub 2 ERA two years ago, I believe, finished sub 2.
Let's see if there's anything left after undergoing shoulder surgery.
And then Grant Holmes, who showed some real flashes last season, showed some real strikeout upside.
He's reportedly healthy after ending last season with an elbow injury.
He said his stuff is better than it's ever been.
Best shape of his life report in January.
Love to see that.
I don't expect much from any of these three guys,
but I didn't expect anything from Trevor Rogers either.
I do like Grant Holmes a lot in theory.
That elbow injury was a torn UCL.
Supposedly is healed now.
Put that one before.
Yeah.
There haven't been many who have pitched through it.
I know famously Masahiro Tanaka did it for a few years
and he was still pretty good.
So it's not impossible, but it is unlikely for a pitcher to pitch through that.
I think the answer that fits this perfectly, and I have absolutely no confidence in,
there's less than a 1% chance that this person contributes anything in fantasy this year,
is Alec Manoa.
That is, that just fits Trevor Rogers to a T, but I would not bank on that at all.
I mean, honestly, could throw Grayson Rodriguez in there.
I want to just go the whole Angels rotation.
Yeah.
The one that I actually think is kind of interesting is,
Christian Javier, who returned late last season from Tommy John's surgery in August.
He did not look great, not many whiffs, walks for a problem like they usually are for him.
I remember him dealing with an illness for a few of his starts and that kind of threw things off.
But the good news is the velocity was back up.
He changed the pitch mix.
He had a new sinker.
He had five different pitches he was throwing between 10 and 40% of the time.
And I just kind of trust the Astros pitching development.
And so maybe they can get something squeezed, something out of Christian Javier that
used to be there with him as a fantasy stud pitcher way back in the day.
Some honorable mentions here.
I had Reese Olson written down, Lucas G. Alito.
Brandon Fott, probably not going to happen.
But gosh, I just thought it fit the exercise here.
Brandon Fott is like, if you play in one of these best ball leagues, these draft champions for the best ball, right?
No, that's the cut line, I think.
The cut line.
If you're in one of those leagues, draft Brandon fought for those four.
great starts he gives you.
Like he,
he,
like there is no pitcher who is less capable
on a start-to-start basis
who just randomly throws up
these absolute gems than Brandon Fott.
It's ridiculous.
Yeah.
A couple of their names
who could be this year's
Trevor Rogers,
Michael Soroka,
Sean Newcomb,
Braxton Garrett,
Zach Eflin and Stephen Matts.
So I just went completely
off the grid there with some of those.
Yeah.
Sure.
We got really adventurous.
Yep.
Uh,
we are going to rat there for Scott
Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.
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and we will be back again tomorrow.
Bye-bye.
Paramount Podcasts.
