Fantasy Baseball Today - Top Impact Prospects for 2022! Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt & More (1/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 6, 2022

Prospects! How does Scott rank prospects (4:00)? How soon might we see Julio Rodriguez (7:05)? ... Who's a good player comp for Bobby Witt (13:13)? ... What is Adley Rutschman's ceiling (21:15)? ... What should we project for Spencer Torkelson this season (27:27)? ... What about his teammate Riley Greene (30:14)? ... How many innings can we expect from Shane Baz (37:54)? ... Will the power come for Josh Jung (45:12)? ... How do we project Oneil Cruz (50:17)? ... Is Alek Thomas undervalued (54:49)? ... Just how good can Nick Pratto be (58:28)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. Prospects, prospects. We all love prospects. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, January 6th. I am Frank Stanple, and you guessed it. We're talking about prospects, obviously. Yes, we're talking about prospects, the biggest impact prospects for 2022 redraft leagues. We did this earlier in the off season with our good buddy, the Welsh,

but we have Scott's top 100 prospects on the horizon, and he's put a lot of hard work into it. Speaking of which, hello, Scottie, how are you doing? Hello. Hello. I'm fine. I'm still putting hard work into it. I have written up 21 of the 100 prospects as of now, which is, Not as far long as I'd like to be from being perfectly honest. I hope to be through 50 by the time I've done working today,

which is yesterday to those listening. So, yeah, still a long way to go. Still a lot to write about. Now, I have written about all but two of these prospects already just in the offseason because I came out with my position-by-position prospect rankings. But, you know, got to vary the content a little. Can't just paste those little blurbs. over, unfortunately.

Yeah. And as if I could. I was going to ask, the further you go into the top 100, do you just write less and less? Like, by the time we get to, I don't know, number 100 on the list, is it just like a word? Like, yay. No.

No. No, actually. Actually, it tends to be just the opposite. I find there's more parsing. Not parsing. That's not the right word. But there's more. there's actually more to say about the lesser known prospects, the ones toward the back end of the top 100.

So there's a tendency to write more, but I try to keep it between 50 and 60 words for all of them because, you know, when you have 100 of them, that I'm talking thousands of words at that point. So, you know, it's an interesting phenomenon that I'm sure many writers can relate to, though, where if I just if I didn't put a word limit on myself and everything was like 100 120 words or something

just because I just wrote until I came to a natural stopping point that might actually go faster than having to condense what I want to say into 50 to 60 words you know because I have to pick and choose I have to choose my syntax so carefully and I have to like exclude

things that I really want to say, but it's just like, well, it would take too many more words to say that. So, yeah, that's, that is the plight of the writer right there, particularly like a journalistic type writer. All right. Well, I have picked out the 10 highest ranked prospects on Scott's Top 100 that are, he puts them into different categories. All 10 of these are either fighting this spring for a job with their respective team, or in a case of just one of them, they've already been written in. They're already on the team, or at least we hope they are. So, yeah, these are names that you should be able to target this year that will actually make an impact. And Scott, speaking of this year, and, you know, there's a lot of talk in the

prospect community and the fantasy community in general about what should you weigh when it comes to prospects. So I'll turn this back over to you. Obviously, you're ranking all these prospects. How do you, what goes into choosing, you know, one name over another? Is it proximity? Is it long-term impact? Are these rankings maybe more so just for this season? I'm sure it's like all of those things, but maybe what do you put weight on the most? It's all of those things. Yes. I could just answer yes to your question. And I mean, there's not like a, uh, It's more art than science. There's not a precise formula to follow, obviously, right?

But it's still worth saying. I would say I probably favor proximity more than the average prospect list. Certainly if you're talking about just like a general baseball prospect list versus a fantasy prospect list. But I think even among people who rank prospects for fantasy, I probably favor proximity a little more. But that's become less true over time, I think. And it's more of a dynasty-focused list than anything. So overall impact is probably the greatest factor,

since in Dynasty leagues you're obviously long-term focused. but my own approach to Dynasty League tends to favor the guys who are going to make the more immediate impact because I like I don't like to sink years into a prospect and have him not pan out right? I want to know sooner than later

if he's going to be an asset for me and so obviously if you're stockpiling your system with a bunch of 18 year olds you're not going to find out for a long time whether those investments are going to pay off. There's always new prospects to draft every year. There's always new prospects to pick up.

So I don't want to, I don't want to sink a lot of time into what turns out to be a lost cause. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. And just specifically this past year, I mean, it happens every season, but we saw so many prospects jump up from one year to the next. Anthony Volpe comes to mind.

Look, I'm sure that there is a bunch. Like Shane Bos, for example, right? Like, he was nobody's top, no one's top pitching prospect this time last year, even two years ago. But all of a sudden, look at what he does this season in the minors, and then couple that with what we saw towards the end of the season. And it just happens year over year. There are a lot of prospects that, you know, obviously Shane Boss was on prospect list. It's not like he came out of nowhere, but there's prospects. He's like 80 something on my list last year.

Exactly. Yeah. So you'll be able to either, you know, in some cases, pick these guys up in your dynasty league throughout the course of the season. or maybe if you notice something early in the season that you like, you could try and trade for that prospect. So keep that in mind. I think that's a really, really strong point there, Scott. There's always more prospects,

and especially there's always more prospects coming and just getting better, progressing throughout the course of the season. So let's talk about some of these impact prospects here for 2022 and your number one prospect, who I was a little bit surprised to see that you believe will be fighting for a job this spring, is Julio Rodriguez, outfielded for the Seattle Mariners, just turned 21 years old in December, and this past season he hit 347, 13 home runs,

21 steals in OPS just over 1,000. That was between high A and AA. He played 46 games at AA, so there could be an argument that he needs some seasoning at AAA, but does he really? I don't know. The plate discipline is also really good already. 66 strikeouts to 43 walks.

He hits a lot of line drives, but also a lot of ground balls. Scotty, let me know. Why do you think Julio Rodriguez actually has this opportunity to make it coming out of spring training? Well, I'll first point out that fighting this spring, that designation for these prospects. In some cases, it's fighting this spring

and probably will win a job. But in many cases, it's, I'm giving him a chance of winning the job this spring, but I don't think it's that likely. And Rodriguez, of course, would be more the latter. he is the caliber of prospect who sometimes makes that dramatic of a jump, skips a level or two, because he shows up to spring training and the team realizes,

this guy can help us right now. And the Mariners are maybe the ideal team to make that decision because they just missed the playoffs last year. They've already been working, they've already done things to upgrade their roster this offseason, and significant things, signing the AL-Sye young winner, Robbie Ray, right? They clearly have an eye on contention in 2022 after coming so close in 2021. And they have room in their lineup for Julio Rodriguez.

Left field, according to a roster resource, they have Jake Fraley slotted in right now. And that's not to say Fraley will automatically get that job. But the point is, there isn't an obvious choice to fill. out every lineup spot there. So, Julio Rodriguez, in the time you spent at double 8th, 46 games, not a small amount of time, he hit 362 at double A, you know? And he's been hyped since he was 17 years old. Nothing seems to be slowing him down.

It's kind of a long shot. It's a long shot that he makes the team out of spring training, but I do think it's possible. And even if he doesn't, I do think it's very likely he's up at some point in the first third of the season. I really need to stop doing this because it's totally unfair. And what we're going to do for each of these prospects is we're going to provide a player comp. I texted you, Scott. I hope you got the text. And if you didn't get, if you don't have player coms for each of these, I came up with player comp. So if you don't have them, then you could either say you agree, disagree, and then we could talk it out. But either way, last year, I compared Wander Franco.

to a lesser Juan Soto. It's not fair to compare anyone to Wansoto. The guy is completely ridiculous. He's on a whole famed track, assuming he doesn't get hurt throughout his career. We hope that doesn't happen because he's been amazing thus far. But I see a little bit of the same things

that Julio Rodriguez has done in the minors to what Wansoto did in the minors. And I think the situation in particular as well, Wonsoto back in 2018, he only played eight games at AA before he was called up by the Washington Nationals and he was only 20 years old at the time. So, Julio Rodriguez is already 21.

He just turned 21 in December. So, you know, he's freshly 21. He can enjoy an alcoholic beverage if he likes. But, yeah, I think that there's a lot of similarities there that you laid out regarding the, I was about to say Seahawks. It is no longer football season. Regarding the Mariners, I think that they are ready to compete

and he obviously can help them do that. So the actual player comp that I came up with is not Wonsoto. I like the situation. I compared them. But actually, I like Kyle Tucker. I like Kyle Tucker from the right side. Kyle Tucker walks quite a bit. Maybe he has more power than Julio Rodriguez. Though I don't want to cap the power. I mean, there's a lot of power in that bad as well.

But, you know, it was like 14 steals this past year for Kyle Tucker. I think Julita Rodriguez maybe can run even more than that. But that was like a high-end comp that I came up. with for Julio Rodriguez, Kyle Tucker. What do you think, Scottie? I think Julio Rodriguez has a better career than Kyle Tucker. Okay. Which, you know, Kyle Tucker's obviously established as high-level player in the majors already. So it's a bold statement to some degree, but Julio Rodriguez is my number one prospect,

something Kyle Tucker never was. And I think he's this kind of generational talent, who, you know, kind of from the time he arrives in the majors, you're expecting a Hall of Fame track. Unfair, though it may be, that's kind of what you're thinking for Julio Rodriguez. So, you know, I think if you're, I

don't think it's a bad comparison necessarily, but I kind of want to aim even higher. I'm just struggling to think of a modern player who fits that description because I don't think he's going to strike out as infrequently as like a Vladimir Guerrero, but maybe his

five-by-five numbers can look like that, potentially even with some stolen bases, since he's done a fair amount that in the minors. I mean, it's super lazy because it's, A, the same organization, the Mariners, and B, the same last name, Rodriguez, but I've kind of thinking A-Rah. Ooh. Yeah.

All right. You know, obviously more likely than not to fall short of that, but I think he can be that kind of transcendent talent, Julio Rodriguez can, potentially. All right. So yeah, potential superstar here in Julio Rodriguez. Number two, your number two prospect and number two on this list, is someone we've talked about quite a bit. And I think we're going to talk about them even more throughout the course of the off season.

And that is Bobby Witt, shortstop with the Kansas City Royals. He is 21 years old. We'll turn 22 in June and this past season. He hit 290, 33 homers, 29 steals, power speed, 936 OPS, between AA and AAA, played 62 games at AAA. He is all but ready to play with the Royals. Join them. Could be right out of spring training.

We got to see what happens. Obviously with this new CBA and how they're going to treat prospects if there's going to be any type of manipulation moving forward. Obviously, that's one of the core issues and things that they want to figure out with the CBA. Not perfect play discipline, Scott, but not bad either. You know, 9% walk rate, lower his strikeout rate to,

22 and a half percent at AAA, lots of line drives, lots of fly balls. I wonder, maybe does Casey saps on that power of Bobby Whip? I remember watching a, and a bat of his in spring training last year against Julio Reyes, and he looked ready. He looked ready then. It was, I think, a 12 or 13 pitch at bat. I forget how it ended, but the fact that he was battling off pitch after pitch, he was taking balls, it went to a full count.

I was super impressed then. And obviously, given what he did this past season, I'm even more impressed now. Yeah. Yeah. No, me too. It was kind of everything we could have hoped for what Bobby Witt did. And what was his first full minor league season, the first taste of the upper minors, really. Obviously, the lost 2020 season meant some development happened behind the scenes.

And so we weren't able to see this progression. that may have been going on, but this was about as good as anyone could have hoped for. If the Royals were in the playoff hunt, I imagine we would have seen Witt in the majors already. They very nearly gave him a job last spring if reports are to be believed. And I think more likely than Rodriguez, I might say a 40-60 chance which is in the Royals starting lineup on opening day. and if not then then before the end of April I mean we can't we don't know exactly what the new labor deal is going to look like and to what extent it will it will address it will address some of the service time manipulation that goes on so that might influence Witt's timetable but it's going to be very early on and that's why among prospects who haven't debuted yet Witt is the obvious first choice in fantasy drafts And that's exactly what the ADP is saying so far as well.

Bobby Witt currently since December 1st, 95.6 is the ADP being drafted inside the top 100 picks. It's actually come down a little bit. I remember back in November, it was inside the top 90, so it's fallen back a little bit here. And if you're wondering, where has the top prospect, really the top prospect for fantasy that season been drafted by ADP the past couple of years? Luis Robert was 81.7 heading into 2020. Vladimir Guerrero was 51.1 in 2019. Ronald de Cunia was 100.5 back in 2018. So this actually seems like a pretty fair price for the top prospect this upcoming season in Bobby Witt.

Scott, would you consider actually paying that price? Yeah. Yeah, I've done it before in early mucks. It's hard because he's a shortstop. And it's easy to fill that position early. So you're more often drafting him as a middle infielder or maybe even utility player. But I think the upside is worth it. I think the potential for him to contribute in all five categories,

because particularly for the Royals, I feel confident saying Bobby Witt, at least early in his career, is going to be a base dealer. And obviously in Roto leagues, that's, that's, that there's a strong attraction to that. Yeah. The player comp that I have for him, Scott, it's a pretty lazy one.

I feel like a lot of people have made this comp already for him, but it is Trevor's story. And I think just kind of looking at Trevor Story's career, what we saw this past season, I think that might be the low end. I mean, obviously, look, the floor for any prospect is,

you know, they're out of the game. They're out of baseball in a couple of years and they just flame out and it doesn't work out. But I think the low end, realistic expectation for Bobby Witt is maybe what we saw from Trevor Story this year, 250 batting average, 2020 type bat, but the high end could actually be what Trevor Story was a couple of years ago where he's hitting close to 300, 35 home runs, 20 plus deals. And doesn't need the help of course field to do that. Exactly. Trevor Story probably

does. No, I think that's the first place I go with by Bobby Witt as well. I actually went there, I think, in my top 100 last year. I had that in writing that Trevor Story comp before, Witt had the kind of view that he had and obviously the comparison feels less it feels less excessive now that he did put up those numbers but you know it's

it's worth pointing out because I feel like this is a touchy subject in fantasy circles the player comps for prospects and I just dropped an A-Rod cop for A-Rod comp for J-Rod

a few minutes ago and maybe people turned us off right then. I don't know. Please don't. Come back. Yeah. But I mean, even a Trevor story comp may sound like too much

for some people when you're talking about Bobby Witt. I always aim high with my prospect comps. Because in my mind, it goes without saying that a prospect, just by virtue of the term, prospect, what that term means,

is unlikely to live up to that comp. There's a percentage chance he does. I believe in an upside comp really is what I'm putting out there when I do comps. It's not this fence-straddling comp that, in my mind, doesn't tell you that much because prospects are either going to be what we dream they can be. they're going to fizzle out or they're going to go have kind of an underwhelming career

and in my mind the only one of those scenarios that you can really put specific terms on is the upside comp, the comp where they're everything you hope they're going to be. So I don't feel any shame in doing this. A lot of people like scoff at it

when you make these kinds of comps, but plus they're just more fun. Exactly. It's fun. Like, that's exactly it. And I think the main reason why I wanted to do player comps is I think it gives listeners and people watching us an opportunity to compare what this player can turn into fantasy wise. So that's why I like to do these player comps. Look, there's a lot of people who they study these prospects inside and out.

Like, you know, they know they have an idea of what they think this player is going to become. There's a lot of people listening who maybe this is the first time they're hearing about these prospects. And they really just, they want that idea in that, in that comparison. So I agree with you. Overall, I just think it's fun. So for any, you know, hardcore fantasy listener out there who's like, these are such ridiculous comps, I'm sorry, but we're trying to have fun. Number three on the list.

Number three on the list here is Adley Ruchman. We've gone one, two, three in your top 100. And they're all expected to have an impact this season. Your number three prospect, Adley Ruchman, catcher for the Baltimore Orioles turning 24. I was surprised to see that he's turning 24 years old in February. Didn't know he was that old. But this past season, he hit 285, 23 homers, 90 strikeouts to 79 walks,

between AA and AAA. Really strong plate discipline here for Adley Rushman. He played 43 games at AAA. I think a lot like Bobby Witt, there is a chance that, a legitimate chance that he is on the Orioles on opening day. And if not, soon thereafter, he hits a good amount of line drives and fly balls, which should play really well in Camden Yards and really the entire American League East.

Hitting power tools are there, Scott, for Adley Rushman. And I would be willing to wager that he falls into this Salvador Perez bucket. I'm not saying he's ever going to lead the league in RBI or hit 48 home runs, but I think that there is a very strong possibility that he will DH for the Baltimore Orioles, maybe even as soon as this season, on his off days. like he, you know, they need his bat in the lineup.

Like, that's how important Adley Rushman is going to be to the Baltimore's. And maybe you've figured this out while making your rankings, but there are a lot of catchers coming that I think we could also say that about. That they are, there's a lot of strong hitting catcher prospects that are on the way. And, you know, they might wind up getting a lot of DH at bats for their respective team. So I would say the same exact thing for Adley Rushman. What do you think about him? Yeah, I mean, everything you read about this guy is that he's,

one of the very best most projectable catching prospects ever. So I'm not even sure in the modern, in the current game, looking at the current player pool, you could really make a comp. You know, I agree that it's unlikely he'll ever have a home run total like the one Salvador Perez just put up.

I mean, Salvador Perez set a record for most home runs in a season by a player who primarily plays catcher. So, you know, but Adley Rushman excels at the plate discipline. He's a switch hitter. His hit tool is perhaps even better or just as good as his power tool. He's excellent pitchframer, great at working with pitchers, a lot of leadership qualities, like a true face of the franchise type,

that isn't going to be one of those catchers. that only start 60% of the time. And there's not many you can predict that for. That's why catchers seem to their value is deflated in dynasty leagues because if you're talking about real world prospect rankings, you don't worry as much about what this guy's playing time is going to look like. But in fantasy, of course you do. And the trend has been for more time shares behind the plate.

It's always been a position where you rarely see a guy play every day. truly because it takes such a toll on his body. But it's not going to be an issue for Adley Rushman, who of course is a former number one overall pick. And I don't know exactly what the numbers are going to look like, but it's hard to envision him not being at least a top five catcher, if not in his rookie season and sophomore season and beyond. And I think it's reasonable to appreciate.

Jack, just given the stature of catcher prospect that he is and how few flaws are present in his game, it's not unreasonable to say he should have a multi-year run as the best catcher in fantasy. Yeah, I was going to say exactly that. I think it wouldn't surprise me if within the next couple of years we're talking about Ruchman as a top five-round player for fantasy baseball. I don't think that is, I don't think that's far-fetched at all. The comp that I came up with, Now, I was, it was really tough because we just, we don't have a lot of, we don't have a lot of catchers like this, right? So I thought of Oakland, Josh Donaldson.

Now hear me out. People might be, what, what are you talking about? Josh Donaldson actually came up as a catcher way back in the day. These numbers are what he put up as a third baseman, though, with the Oakland A's. And his first couple of seasons there, 3.01 batting average, 24 homers, 255 batting average, 29 home runs. I think if you just kind of blend those together, they're like can we get a 280 plus batting average high 20s maybe 30 plus homer outcome for

adly rutchman i think it's very possible so that's my comp scottled oakland josh thompson okay yeah i i i can't maybe the hardest one to come up with a comp for because there's just so few there are so few catchers of of that highest stature really in in modern history i mean I'm not going to go with Mike Piazza because, you know, I already did Alex Rodriguez. I'm not going to do that. And I don't think, you know, I don't think Adley Rushman's going to hit 330 year after year or anything like that. But kind of like, I think he'll be more powerful than Buster Posey. I don't think he'll have as consistently high batting averages as him.

I don't know. It's tough to come up with a comp for Adley Rushman. He is truly without comparison. Yeah, he's definitely is a unique. prospect. I was going to say, you know, maybe his high, high end outcome is like just Josh Donaldson. Like Josh Donaldson's peak. I mean, we're talking about an MVP type player there. But yeah, maybe pro rated over however many games he plays, like 1.30. So, yeah. I kind of want to like something in between Buster Posey and Salvador Perez, except you can't truly like average their

numbers because he's going to walk way more than Perez does. So, yeah. It's tough to come up with a good comp for Rushman. Well, let's move on to number four, and I think it'll be a little bit easier to come up with a comp for this player. The number four prospect on your list and the number four prospect overall. I mean, in terms of impact prospects this year,

that is Spencer Torkelson, Tiger's first baseman, third baseman. It looks like he's going to play first base, at least I think so. 22 years old, turns 23 in August, and this past season he hit 267, 30 homers with a 935 OPS across three levels.

He transitioned from high A to double A to AAA in his first full season in the minors. 40 games at AAA, he has strong walk rates. And between a 20 and 23% strikeout rate at each level of the minors. So that's a pretty strong contact rate for a quote-unquote slugging type corner infielder. Lots of line drives, lots of fly balls as well, loud contact. I saw a video that the Welsh posted of Spencer Torkelson out in the AFL. before he got hurt. I think he,

I think he like pulled his calf or something, but it's loud. The contact is loud for this gentleman. And Scott, steamer likes him right away. Steamer projections on fan graphs.

259 batting average, 29 home runs projected in year one over 130 games. That's a lot. Yeah, but he seems like a very projectable prospect. He's got the power,

got the patience. And yet he's, you know, you emphasize the guy's power, you emphasize his patience. There's kind of this underlying assumption that he's going to be no good in batting average, but I don't think that's, I don't think that's the case for Spencer Torkelson. The comp I'm tempted to use for him is Chris Bryant, but Chris Bryant has become kind of a divisive player in recent years.

So I'm referring to more early career Chris Bryant, where everybody loved him. you know, where you could pencil him in for 30 to 35 homers. You know, he might hit 275, 280, good OBP. Not necessarily a first round pick, but there were, I think there was one or two years there where we did consider Chris Bryant, kind of a fringe first round pick.

That's what I'm thinking for Torkelson. I think those kinds of numbers are in play for him. All right, yeah, the comp that I had was Paul Goldschmidt without the speed. So I think that's a pretty similar player, right? 280 plus 30 to 35 home runs. You know, maybe doesn't ever work his way into being a first round pick. But if he's given you that much power with, you know, a commendable batting average, then yeah, I mean, he might turn out to be a second or at least a third round pick for fantasy baseball purposes.

What about his teammate, Riley Green, your number five prospect and an outfielder? for the Detroit Tigers. He is 21 years old, and this past season hit 301, 24 homers, 16 steals with a 921 OPS, over 124 games between AA and AAA. He did get 40 games in at AAA.

And I was looking at the roster resource page for the Tigers earlier. Center field is just there. It's there for the taking. I mean, they have Victor Reyes pencilled in as the starting center fielded right now. So I'm not sure it happens

right out of the gate, but this is another one where I could see it happened pretty early for Riley Green. Maybe it's like a May call-up or something. Tigers fans, you have a lot to like here. You've got Torque. You have Riley Green. Just sign Javier Baez. There's a lot to like here.

Overall, some power, some speeds got, I worry a little bit about the strikeouts for Riley Green. One thing that I noticed about the minor league numbers, he crushes lefties as a left-handed hitter. Love to see that. Absolutely love to see that. What do you think about Riley Green? Yeah, there's the trend right now seems to be

to favor him over Spencer Torkelson, fantasy or otherwise, which clearly I disagree with. They're four and five in my top 100, so it's close. But I think Torkelson, I don't see much downside with Torkelson. And in Greene's case, you know, the 27% strikeout rate kind of scares me, especially since his hit tool is supposed to be his best tool. You see, you know, you look at the scouting reports, and there are some mentions of him being like a batting title contender,

and it's hard to imagine that being so if he's striking out 27% of the time. Plus his power ceiling is not on the level of Torkelsons. He might not be somebody who becomes like a 30-homer guy. He might be kind of like a speedier Brian Reynolds, you know? In fact, maybe that's the comp I want to use. I don't know. So, yeah, a great prospect, Riley Green, going to contribute at some point this year,

maybe sooner than not. I may be a little lower on him than the consensus, though. All right. The comp that I had for O'Reilly Green is Randy Orozahana, Scott. So I think somebody who has good plate discipline, I know a Roserena strikes out quite a bit, but he still does have a good feel for the plate. So I think based on the minor league numbers

that I saw from Riley Green, the fact that he walks as much as he does still strikes out a lot. I think he has that feel, but maybe just has a hole in his swing. And maybe he overcomes that throughout the course of his career. But I was thinking Randy Orozarena.

What do you think? You know, I'm not the biggest of Rosarena guy. Yeah. So I think if we're talking an upside comparison, I don't love it. I don't love it. Now, if Riley Green came up and delivered Randy a Rosarayna numbers in 2022, I don't think anybody would be disappointed in that. But, you know, if we're thinking about dynasty asset,

what does the, what could you dream about getting here from Riley Green? I would, I would hope for more than that. Yeah, I guess the hope would be, he was a little bit harder to figure out. I was trying to find someone who like strikes out quite a bit, but has some power and has some speed. Maybe he can get up to you know, 25 homers, 25, 30 homers with 20 steals, something like that. But a good batting average, you know, like a 275. So, you know, he's kind of an interesting. Maybe Kyle Tucker. Maybe Kyle Tucker is someone like that.

But Tucker makes a lot of contact too. So, uh, I don't know. Well, that wasn't always the case. That's true. I mean, that's the thing. Like, it's, it's easy for me to harp on Riley Green's strikeout rate. The scouting reports suggest that won't always be. But, you know, again, I go back to these are prospects,

and we don't really know what path they're going to take, and you're kind of weighing upside, downside, risk, reward, and that strikeout rate for Riley Green. Among all the prospects we've mentioned so far, that stands out as the biggest concern of mine. All right, yeah. I will say this about Riley Green's impact this season, it would not shock me of the names that we've talked about thus far

if Riley Green struggles the most right away. Something like how Jared Kelnick struggled when he came up, and Kelnik actually made more contact in the miners than Riley Green did. So just keep that in mind, and that was something that I thought about. And it would make sense that I expect him to struggle the most of the names we've talked about because he's ranked the lowest. He's ranked fifth. Everyone else is above him.

Let's take a quick break. When we return, we'll talk about the prospect who Scott has already penciled in, to his team's rotation. Next, here. Fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's jump in your number 10 prospect now. So we jumped down a little bit. That means we have skipped a few prospects now that maybe not expecting to have a big impact this season.

And again, you can find this list. It will be on the site at some point this weekend. So we're giving you a little sneak peek. We skipped a bunch of short stops. Spoiler alert. A lot of short, I think there are six short stops in my time. Top 10 prospects overall? Shortstop is loaded sky.

I mean, not just from a redraft perspective, but Dynasty leagues as well. Look, maybe not every shortstop stays at shortstop. You know, some guys can move off to third. They can move off to second base, you know, whatever. You know, things happen, obviously. Oh, yeah, yeah, of course. Like, as of now, prospects who are playing shortstop in the minors,

there is a ton of talent. So, yeah, I don't, we should probably talk. We'll talk about that at some point. I have five short stops in my top 10. We'll talk about that at some point this off-seasoner. Just in terms of like if you have a shortstop prospect, do you maybe try to sell it off for another position that's not as plentiful? I don't know.

I don't think so. It's my short answer. But I will say in the entire top 100, there are more short stops than outfielders. So that gives you some idea, the kind of talent we're looking at that position, as if there wasn't already enough there in the major league level. All right, well, let's just hope, Scott,

that some of those short stops turn into outfielders and they can help us out there. Anyway, your number 10 prospect, that is Shane Bos. We saw a little bit of him at the end of the season there, starting pitcher with the Tampa Bay raise, 22 years old, and he is the last piece of the Chris Archer trade, which we have already talked about for years, Tyler Glass now, Austin Meadows, and Shane Boz.

I mean, this is going to go down as an all-timer. Like, one of the worst trades. It already is an all-timer. It's so bad. Like, Shane Boz doesn't need to do anything. Oh, yeah. For it to be an all-time lopsided trade. And yet he may turn out to be the most impactful of the pieces the rays acquired.

Which is just, it's insane. It is just insane. did he do this past year? 17 starts in the minors. 206 ERA, a 0.80 whip, 113 strikeouts to 13 walks. Again, 113 to 13. That's his strikeout to walk ratio

over 78 and 2 thirds. Endings pitched in the minor leagues. He made three starts at the end of the season with the Tampa Bay raise where he looked lights out. I think he only went two and two thirds in one of those starts against the Yankees. He only made one start in the playoffs.

Did not look great in that start, but it's a playoff. Whatever. I'm not really going to hold it against him. What we're looking at here, Scott, is that strikeout to walk ratio and the arsenal. It looks like he has three pitches ready to go off the jump. Four seamer averages, 97 miles per hour. He's got the slider. He's got the curveball.

That bolt generate a ton of spin. There's just so much to like here. Yeah, so much to like. But what really put him over the top last year was the jump in control, which I don't think many of us saw coming. his first two, let's see here, his first three minor league seasons. So obviously there's no 2020 data, but 2017 through 2019, 5.3 walks per nine, 5.0 walks per nine, 4.1 walks per nine.

In the minors last year, Boz issued 1.5 walks per nine. I mean, night and day in terms of avoiding walks and finding the strikes. And so when you have the kind of stuff he does, and by the way, the rays basically applied the same change to Boz that they applied to Tyler Glass now, where really emphasizing the power aspect of their arsenal when the pirates had both of them thrown a lot of sinkers, instead four seamers and sliders to maximize the missing of bats,

which is better suited for their skill set anyway. So they've kind of unlocked Baz's potential with that change, that arsenal change. and if walks aren't going to be an issue for him, there's just so much upside here. I mean, his fastball is a true 80-grade pitch. He can blow major league hitters away just with that before he even factor in the breaking balls. He looks like he's going to be amazing.

My biggest concern with Shane Boss is just that he pitches for the raise and how carefully are they going to handle him? are they going to kind of nerf his fantasy potential just in their handling of him? I hope not, but they're an organization that tends to do that. Yeah, so Steamer projects Shane Baas

as of now, Scott, for 21 starts, 118 innings pitched. Would you take the over or under on those numbers? 2118. I would take the over. Okay. I would take the over, but not by much. Maybe like 100,

maybe I'd hope for like 130 innings. You know, maybe, I don't know, 23, 24 starts, something like that. All right. So he wound up between the minors and the majors this past season. He threw 92 innings. So, yeah, I mean,

a realistic jump, 1.30, 140. I think that's fair. I think that's fair to project for Shane Bos here, Scott. The ADP, there's a lot of people that like Shane Bos and rightfully. So the ADP right now is 140.3. I'm going to put you on the clock here, Scotty.

So I'm going to talk for a couple of seconds and let you pull up your rankings in case you don't have them up. But would you rather have Shane Boss or Chris Basset? They are going literally the same exact pick. Boss. Would you rather have Shane Boss or Framber Valdez? I believe I have Bosset. ahead there, though that might depend points of Roto. Interesting.

All right. So we're getting closer. How about Shane Bos versus Nathan Avaldi? Yeah, I think I would prefer Valdez in points, please, because I have Bos just one spot ahead in Roto. Okay, Boz versus Avaldi, definitely Boz. Ooh, Boz versus Carl's Rodon. He's such a wild card.

Yeah, I do have Rodon ranked ahead, but that's highly subject to change. I kind of want to see what kind of deal Rodon gets this offseason. All right. Whenever the offseason resumes. Last one, I'll give you Shane Bosz versus Pablo Lopez. Lopez. All right, so I don't, you're not, it doesn't seem like you're, you're far off ADP right now. It seems like you're, you're probably in that top 35-ish, top 40 starting pitch of range.

37, that's where I have boss. There you go. All right. You know, sometimes I'm, sometimes I'm good at this stuff. I can, there you go. The comp that I have, Scott, some people, they might hear this and say, well, ah, this isn't really a high-end comp. What are you talking about? I have Zach Wheeler.

Zach Wheeler has the comp for Shane Boss. I mean, what Zach Wheeler just did, he's now being drafted in the second, third round as a top six or seven starting pitcher for fantasy. I think if Shane Boss can get there, anybody would sign up for that. Hmm. Yeah, of course.

I mean, sure. I kind of feel like maybe that's giving Boss too much durability and not enough strikeout potential. Okay. but I'm struggling to come up with the comp of my own. I feel like pitchers are harder to comp because there's not a lot of distinction between pitchers anymore. Yeah. I'll just kind of power arms.

Hmm. I was trying to find a pitcher who had a similar arsenal too. So, you know, Wheeler throws hard. He has a couple of breaking balls. But I hear what you're saying about the durability. I don't, yeah, I don't know that boss is going to turn into a, some kind of workhorse that's giving you 180, 200 plus

endings. Right. Will any pitcher? Certainly can't project that for any pitcher anymore, even though some may end up doing it. I don't know. I don't know. I don't see a great comp. I know that's a cop-out.

It's a comp-out, Scott. Yeah, none of these look like, I don't know. Maybe like Jack Flaherty's best seat. I mean, that was, he finished as a top 10 starting pitcher, I think that year. Top 12 starting to do an outside comp, so. All right. Let's move on to our next prospect here.

That is Josh Young, your number 13 ranked prospect. Texas Rangers third baseman, and he turns 24 years old in February. So the timetable is there this past season. He hit 326, 19 homers, a 990 OPS in just 78 games between AA and AAA. He was dealing with an injury. Do you remember off the top of your head scout what that injury was for Josh Young? It was a broken foot. Okay, yeah, so that's what limited him to 78 games this past season.

But in those 78 games, he was pretty damn good. I would say more so known for his hit tool than the power, but power really took off this past season. I know it was like a shorter sample, but yeah, the power was definitely there for him. A ton of line drives. We're talking about over 26% line drive rate at each level of the miners for Josh. So I think if nothing else got, this guy is going to provide batting average and maybe grow into some power as well. Although, it's looking like the Rangers Park might not be the best for that.

What do you think about Josh Young? I love Josh Young. I think he might be of the prospects we've talked about who can make an impact this year. He might have the second biggest impact after Bobby Witt because he might have the second best chance of making the opening day roster or be the second one of these prospects to arrive. And yeah, he's rocketed up the prospect rankings the past couple years. And a lot of credit to the Rangers here. They took him eighth overall in 2019.

And most of the prospect rank lists didn't really treat him like an eighth overall pick. But he had great plate discipline, great bat to ball skills, just not enough power. the Rangers thought they could tap into that power more. And over the past couple years, Josh Young has taken to pulling the ball more, elevating the ball more, and the power has come without sacrificing that great hit tool, that great approach at the plate that he had all along. So it looks like a special bat at this point, a middle of the order bat, and should be up pretty early in the season.

Yeah, I don't know how much the park is going to, work against them, but I mean, the exit velocities are real. He's just he's just figured out a way to maximize their impact. Something we haven't talked enough about yet is the impact that Marcus Semyon and Corey Seeger are going to have on the rest of the Rangers lineup. We've talked a ton about those specific players, but

ultimately they should help the names that are coming. You know, guys like Josh young, if we could ever see Sam Huff make it for the Texas Rangers as well. But, you know, even Nathaniel Lowe, Nate Lowe, if he's hitting in the middle of that lineup, you know, there's going to be more RBI opportunities there as well. So I think keep that in mind when it comes to projecting Josh Young for this year, but for years to come because we know Semyon and Seeger are signed for a bunch of years there

and totally should help his overall value. The comp that I came up with Scott, and this is going to sound low end, but I think it's more realistic than anything is Justin, Turner. What we've seen from Turner the past couple of years, really strong batting average, 290 plus, 25 home runs. I think that there's a chance Josh Young could wind up hitting for more power where if he does maybe what Austin Riley just did this past season, like that's a high end outcome for Josh Young, but that's what I'm thinking for him. Yeah, no, I think that's,

I think that's fine. Justin Turner, the percentages, there's nothing not to like about those over the years. So you say it's a low-end comparison. I mean, obviously, because of his age, he tends to sit a lot, and that's why his fantasy value gets suppressed, but definitely a productive hitter. Yeah, I think kind of some kind of averaging out of Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner. I think that's in the right ballpark when you're talking about an upside comp for Josh Young. and maybe maybe if you wanted to downgrade that comp a little

because the batting averages are so high for all of them although I mean Josh Young has a great hit tool I don't know I thought I had a good name here but I don't something like that yeah it's the same kind of phenotype of player where

not going to strike out much going to get on base a lot how much power is it going to be? Well, it's going to be some, but we don't know, you know, if it's going to manifest closer to 20 or closer to 30 home runs a year. Well, you like them a lot, Scott. You've made that clear at this point. I've got them in the Scott White Dynasty League, so send your offers.

I tried to get them from you. Send your offers. Let's see what we got. Look, I need all the help that I could get. We've got three more prospects to talk about Scott in about 10 minutes left. So let's do it. O'Neill Cruz, your number 16, prospect, a 6-foot-7 shortstop for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is 23 years old. This past season,

he hit 310, 17 homers, 19 steals with a 970 OPS over 68 games between AA and AAA. Only played six games at AAA. But interestingly enough, he made it to the Pirates by the end of the season. I found it odd that they promoted both him and Ronesi Contreras towards the end of the year. It was just weird timing that it happened, but that happened. You know, those guys were promoted towards the end. He actually homered in one of those games. He hit his first Major League home run off of Michael Givens. I watched it earlier tonight.

Came on an O2 pitch, a changeup down out of the zone. It was pretty impressive. Pretty impressive to notice that change up, obviously, on an O2 count. So just a little sneak peek there of what we might be able to see from O'Neill Cruz. Scott, good luck coming up with a comp for this guy. He is so interesting to project. He's so big. The plate discipline has kind of been all over the place in his minor league career. The batted ball data has kind of been all over the place in his career. Though I will say he started off hitting a lot of ground balls and he's lowered that the past couple of seasons. But good luck, Scotty. What are we getting from O'Neill Cruz? Yeah, so he's he's a he's a prospect I've liked in the past and you know, maybe more than maybe more than the average one did and I wish I had invested in him

harder because I kind of felt like I was on an island there. Again, thinking in terms of the upside comp, it was easy to see the downside, six foot seven. Okay, he's obviously not going to stick a shortstop. He's obviously going to have holes in a swing and strike out too much. but if he was able to overcome all of that with that kind of leverage he could produce massive power numbers well the power came to fruition and so far the size hasn't hurt him really

the strikeouts have gone up as he's climbed the minor league ladder but not to a point that is really going to hold him back and he's managed to stick a shortstop for now still be surprised if that was the case for very long but who knows So big power bat I'm going to bet against him staying at shortstop I'm going to bet there are some strikeout issues

but not enough to sink him And I'm going to give you a comp I don't like the names coming to mind Because they just seem too far-fetched I think I actually have a good one Scott Okay, go ahead. Javier Baez. Okay.

It's hard to compare them because they're such different size human beings. But, you know, I think there could be some strikeouts. There's going to be power. I think more than anything, there's going to be power. There could be some speed. I think double-digit steals are possible for him. And, you know, even despite the strikeouts, we've seen some good batting average seasons out of Javier Baez. You know, 270, 280.

I think on a high end, you know, that's what O'Neill Cruz can maybe turn into. Yeah, I see where you're going with that. And he might give you some of that similar steals output there, eventually. But I think his power ceiling's higher than Baez's. So I don't know. I don't want to say, oh, let me pull up my rankings here to come up with a good upside company. I don't think I can in the middle end field, but just among all hitters, I don't know.

Like, I don't want to say John Carlos Stanton because John Carlos Stanton has a history of being drafted in the first round, but kind of who John Carlos Stanton is now, where you feel like you can get 35, 40 homers from him. That might, you know, I'm thinking closer to like a 260 batting average or something, though, for Cruz. I don't know. I'm struggling to come up with a comers. up here. All right. So maybe

Javier Baez with a little bit more power or a John Carlos Staten now with a little bit of speed when it comes to O'Neill Cruz. Your number 22 prospect, that is Alec Thomas an outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He turns 22 years old

in April and this past season he hit 313, 18 homers, 13 steals, a 953 OPS over 106 games between AA and AAA. He's known for his hit and speed more than anything, but he showed off some of that pop, man.

18 homers in 106 games. I mean, that OPS is very strong as well. Strong line drive rate. He hits a lot of ground balls. So I do wonder, you know, what the long-term power output could be for an Alec Thomas. And I think, you know,

the lazy comp that just comes to mind for me right off the bad is Whitmerfield. Yeah, probably too many steals. but otherwise I think it's I think it's pretty good I think Alec Thomas will be line drive over fly ball like what Maryfield is and you know he had big power output this past year in the miners his minor league numbers look awesome but particularly that stint at AAA it was largely influenced by the environment

and it doesn't seem like most evaluators are giving him much of a chance of being a real power threat, Alec Thomas. Historically, I've liked to bet the over on prospects, the over for power, on prospects who just seemed to have a nice, well-rounded skill set, and power seemed like it was the easiest skill to cultivate the major league level. and so betting the over on those guys in terms of home run output has historically gone well for me, but I don't know how much that's changing with the new ball and some of the changes we saw at the major league level last year,

if power is going to be as easy to cultivate at the major league level anymore. So let's see, good comp for Alec Thomas. I'm sorry, I don't have these ready to do. to go, even though you texted me beforehand. I thought they'd come to me easier. Yeah, I don't, I don't love the Whitmeryfield one because of the speed thing, but I don't want to overestimate the power either. So I'm going to say...

I think Starling Marte could happen too, Scott. I mean, not Starling Marte from last year, stole 47 bases, but, I mean, there was years, there were years where Marte was a good batting average, 20 homers. 30 steals. Like that was the projectable Starling Marte. And I think Alex Thomas could get there too. Like he has a 50 grade power. He's not expected to be a zero in power.

So like that could progress like you're talking about. So I don't think 20 homers is out of the question at Alec Thomas's peak. Yeah. No, I don't think so either. And I don't think 25 necessarily is. It's just, I, I, I think maybe, I think there's a chance he's maybe a little undervalued in fantasy circles, I think.

Hmm. Because there's skepticism over the power. Maybe like a more patient Tim Anderson. Okay. So like a 2020 type guy, but with more walks? Yeah, potentially. I don't know. It's not a great comparison.

I don't see a great comparison. All right. Let's wrap up the impact prospects here for 2020. with Nick Prado of the Kansas City Royals, a first base prospect number 39 on your top 100. He's 23 years old, and this past season hit 265 with 36 home runs, 12 steals, a 98 OPS, over 12 games. He did get 63 of those in at AAA,

and the Royals are another team, just like your Tigers. The American League Central, I mean, all right, it's coming. It's up and coming here. but the Royals have they have him, they have Vinnie Pasquantino, they have M.J. Melendez, so a lot of offense coming. And of course, Bobby Witt, right? Like, there's so many strong

hitting prospects coming for the Kansas City Royals. And just getting back to Nick Prado, pretty overwhelming in the minors earlier on in his career, Scott, but 2021, just... That's an understatement. Just really broke out this past year, Scott. He walks a lot, he strikes out a lot. He's kind of a unicorn

where he has these three true outcomes, but maybe can chip in double-digit steals. Yeah, very athletic for first baseman. In fact, with Pasquantino coming through the system, I know Chris Welsh is hoping Prada winds up in the outfields. He's such a good defender of first base that I kind of be surprised, but that's kind of the path Cody Bellinger has taken. So I guess there's a precedent for it.

but yeah I mean the royals there's a great article about this in the athletic about how they during the

during the shutdown in 2020 they they decided they needed to invest a lot more in their hitter development and totally overhauled that

side of their their player development department. And we saw these huge gains from prospects like Prado and M.J. Melendez and Michael Massey, a second baseman who's completely off the radar and fantasy, but who I like a lot. And basically, I know there were swing changes for Prado and there were approach changes and he looks like a patient hitter with a ton of power now. still a lot of strikeouts

and he had stretches last year where his batting average sank to some kind of concerning levels and ended up at 265 which is fine but definitely on the right track now definitely looks like he's going to be a fantasy

asset could provide some speed like you say but it's mainly the power that that's most enticing for Nick Prado and let's see what's a good comp for him I think you already mentioned it Scott I think the high end comp for him could

could be a Cody Bellinger type outcome well I mean I guess it depends what version of Cody Belanger you're talking about League MVP Bellinger no that's too high maybe like a Matt Olson Matt Olson with a handful of steals yeah you know the one that I came up with Scott was early

career Mark Reynolds. People might not remember. Mark Reynolds used to run, man. I'm looking at his 2009 season. 260 batting average, 44 homers, 24 steals. He did that with a 33% strikeout rate.

Yeah. So I think we could wind up with a three true outcome, big power, you know, maybe chips in some steals, which again would just be so unique if he sticks at first base.

I don't know if it's going to happen. The Royals just have so many names there with Pasquantino, what are they going to do with M.J. Melendez and Salvador Perez. I mean, it's a good problem to have, but sooner or later, they're going to have to figure this thing out. So, um, yeah, I'm thinking more about this Mark Reynolds thing, Scott. That was the first year I played fantasy baseball 2009. I remember because it's the year I graduated high school. And I drafted him everywhere the next year, Scott. I loved it. You know, the Diamondbacks for some reason, they were my National League team. I was, I was very excited about Justin Upton at the time and Chris

young, all these guys coming up together. And I drafted Mark Reynolds everywhere the next year. He hit 198. Yeah. No, I was already writing for CBS that year. Oh, man. Pretty sure. Did you have Mark Reynolds?

Pretty sure he was among my bust canada coming off that season. Why didn't I read Scott White? Because he was much more of an allyer for strikeouts back in those days. Oh, yeah. Three percent strikeout rate isn't so rare anymore. I mean, it's still really high. but yeah hopefully Prado doesn't strike out that much I guess it's possible all right sky we're gonna wrap it up here of course we went a little bit long here but whatever man it's prospects everyone

wants to hear about the prospects which prospect do you think makes the biggest impact outside of bobby whit you already mentioned one of the names are you sticking with it josh young i mean it depends on exactly how early Julio rodriguez gets called up but in terms of how i'm drafting for this year yeah I think Josh Young is the second most likely I am to be invested in. Yep. And I'm going to take Shane Bosz out of this category as well because, you know, he's already here. And I think a lot of people, you know, we expect a good amount out of Shane Bosz. I'm going to go with Adley Rutchman.

But I think a dark horse candidate, one that we didn't get to, but a name, write him down. Don't forget about him. Jose Miranda with the Minnesota Twins. I think there's a chance he could break camp with the team as well. and just had a ridiculous season in the minors. Can he keep it up? Can he do it at the major league level? That remains to be seen, but he was awesome this past year.

I've done two drafts so far, Scott. I have wound up with Josh Young and one, Jose Miranda, in the other. So those are some of the prospects that I will be targeting. And a few other names, just to remember for midseason. Throw them on the scout team. These are the highest ranked prospects on Scott's top 100 that are midseason hopefuls. CJ Abrams with the Padres, Grayson Rodriguez with the Orte's. Tristan Kossis with the Red Sox, Brennan Davis with the Cubs,

Nolan Gorman with the Cardinals, George Kirby with the Mariners, and Gabriel Moreno, another one of those catchers coming with the Toronto Blue Jays. We're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on, when will that be? Monday. Bye-bye!