Fantasy Baseball Today - Top Starting Pitcher Prospects! Paul Skenes, Jackson Jobe & More! (12/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 21, 2023

There is no such thing as a pitching prospect (5:32)! ... Let's start things off with the Pirates first overall pick Paul Skenes (11:37). ... The Welsh is a big believer in Robby Snelling (18:42). ... Jackson Jobe has a nasty slider but comes with injury risk (25:03). ... Ricky Tiedemann has insane strikeout potential but also has some warts (31:45). ... Andrew Painter will miss all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery (39:18). ... Cade Horton and Hurston Waldrep are two names with nasty stuff (47:35). ... Will Max Meyer make an impact with the Marlins in 2024 (51:55)? ... Jacob Misiorowski is that classic risk-reward pitching prospect (55:16). ... What did we see from AJ Smith-Shawver in his debut (57:30)? ... News (1:07:00): Japanese reliever looks to be signing with the Padres! To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. 2023 felt like the year of the pitching prospect. Yuri Perez, Grayson Rodriguez, Bobby Miller, Tanner Bybee,

in the words of Bill Goldberg. Who's next? Welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 21st. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris the Welsh. Today on the show, we'll break down the Welsh's top 10 pitching prospects for Dynasty and the top five proximity names to know for redraft leagues, and we do have some fun announcements later on as well. So I had the Goldberg quote up top.

I know the Welsh used to be a wrestling guy. Yeah. But does Scott know who Bill Goldberg is? I know Scott is not a wrestling guy but Goldberg did play for the Georgia Bulldogs back in the day that's what I was going to say that's the thing I know about him

I remember for the Falcons too he played in the NFL I think he did is am I wrong about that? I was reading his Wikipedia page earlier see this is the type of research I do for the podcast and I think he got drafted by the Rams was he an offensive lineman I think he wasn't.

That was like a linebacker. A linebacker? A linebacker. Maybe defensive lineman. Yeah. You know, I didn't really become a Georgia fan until I started going to Georgia in 2002. So I missed the ear of Goldberg. What's his first name?

I missed the hero. Bill Goldberg. He did play for the Falcons. Oh, there you go. Look at me. I missed the ear of him as a Georgia bull dog and no, did not follow him as a wrestler. However, I do remember him being a much disgust. wrestler in my high school years and

knew him as a wrestler before I even knew of him as a George Bulldog. Do you know where he started? What wrestling... Do you know more than one wrestling company? No. Oh. Okay. Well, there was WWF and WCW. Yeah. Where do you think he started? WCW. Hey, we did it. That's right. 50% baby. You had it. I mean, I kind of set that up there too.

There you go. You didn't pick up on the subtext. Two minutes on Bill Goldberg and wrestling up at the top. There's nothing better than that. You know what I was going to say, though, is that your analogy would have been the best ever if it was like three years ago and you did the Goldberg thing. And then we could have said, Gore, because he always his finishing move, McKenzie Gore. Oh, it would have been great.

So McKenzie Gore doesn't. No, no. We'll see. Maybe 2024 will be the year of Gore. Before we get into it, today is actually our last podcast before Christmas. So Merry Christmas and Happy High Christmas. holidays to all we appreciate each and every one of you. But let's start with this. We're going to talk again about top 10 starting pitcher prospects, according to the Welsh. You could actually

find Scott's top 30 pitching prospects on the website right now, CBSports.com slash fantasy baseball slash fantasy slash baseball. So you can compare and contrast. You can read up on all those prospects as well. Welsh, I wanted to start with 10 step. You know, the old, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Talk to me about the famous and kind of where it originated and how much you believe in it. Yeah.

I don't actually don't remember where it originated, but the... Somebody smart. I think it was baseball prospectus. I was going to say, for some of my HQ came to my mind, but I want to say that you're right about that.

I'll look it up. Okay. Yeah. So, I mean, basically the concept is pretty straightforward. And if you go back, let's just even say over the last, like 10 years. And think about some of the top pitching prospects that have ruled the land at the

tippy top. I'm going to name some off for you. Alex Reyes, top 10 unanimous starting pitching prospect. I just met him in the backfields of the Dodgers because he's not been good. McKenzie Gore, Jesus Lazzardo. We could like continuously keep going on with the, they don't work out. Forrest Whitley. Forrest Whitley. Thank you. Forrest Whitley. My God, maybe the tippy top of it. So the idea. is the investment of the pitching prospect is a fallacy because they're volatile, they're injury prone. And as the years have gone on with Tommy Johns, sometimes you don't want to invest in a pitching prospect until they've had Tommy John.

Look at Andrew Painter. Andrew Painter was the last of that, I think it was a year and a half or maybe even this past, it was this past year, top 10 prospect. He might break camp. The talents are through the roof and he's gone. and he's out the 2024 season. So it really just originates from how we treat, you know, redraft leagues. Oh, hey, we don't want to go too heavy into pitchers into drafts anymore.

The pitching side has been that for such a long time because the pitching prospects that actually equate to the higher value, I mean, the percentages are astronomically bad for guys. So, I mean, it's a bad sign for the Paul Schen's of the world and quite a handful of others. And my God, as well. go and look at anybody. You don't have to look at me. You can look at Sky. You can look at baseball America wherever you want.

Go and look at the volatility in like the top 10 or 15 pitching market for prospects over the last even three years, if you'd like. It is just a shuffled bunch of names. There's probably at least 50% new names every single year jumping up. So it is just, you know, arms are to not be trusted. So investing heavily in dynasty and on the prospect side is probably not the great. great investment overall. The other side of the coin, and I don't know if this was the original meaning of tin step, which yes, was coined by baseball prospectus.

I don't know if this was the original intention of there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, but you know, you talked about the high-end guys who bust, but like a lot of the pitchers that we now know as great pitchers were not that highly regarded as prospects. And to give a very recent example, there are plenty of examples, but to give a lot of of a very recent one. Spencer Strider never appeared on a major top 100 list. I'm trying to go back and check and see if he was on mine because I know I was higher on him than the consensus. But even I was lower on him than I wanted to be because there's all relief risk. He's probably going to be a reliever. And now he's like the most coveted pitcher in fantasy. So it's just so scattershot.

Like the the there are there are actually there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. There are a ton of pitching prospects. Like more than half of all prospects are pitching prospects. But landing on the right order with any real accuracy, it is kind of an impossible endeavor. Like it's everybody, it kind of feels like everybody's just guessing. Yeah, I remember, you know, the other example of this from like a long time ago was Max Scher. Max Scherzer coming up with the Diamondbacks was like fun, but nobody believed he was going to be able to go like really deep into games. And a lot thought he was injury prone and they wanted to get him out there quickly. And yeah, it's just all changed.

Two pitch pitchers are not really supposed to thrive. That's a strider thing as starters. And I really, what I personally believe is that the 10-stap idea has turned more into late investment of pitching. And like I just did my P-180P mocks, which you both did with me. You'll, you never, you rarely see me take a pitching prospect in the first four rounds. If I have 15 picks, I'm never going to go. over five of those being pitchers.

And it's probably a sweet spot is three to four. And they're going to be late because there's a lot of room for growth for players that just have not been recognized. And opportunity sometimes jumps up. But yeah, the high-end guys, that investment in passing up like it bats, it's really tough, especially with all the great prospect bats we've talked about in this entire series, if people haven't go back and catch up here on the feed. Because we've talked about some amazing high-end prospects.

And the idea of like passing on one. of those for a skeins or a Tiedemann or something like that. It turns your stomach a little bit with the stories of Andrew Painter and Forrest Whitley. Yeah, and from a dynasty perspective, again, when selecting players in your first year player draft, it just, it feels like the hit rate on high draft picked position players is just much more likely than the pitchers that are taken in early rounds. And as Scott pointed out, a lot of the pitching prospects that do kind of emerge over years are names that either might get drafted in the middle rounds or even the later rounds or just kind of come out of nowhere.

Jacob de Grom. And we see it time after time when it comes to these high level pitching prospects. Let's get into the names that we want to talk about. Obviously have to mention that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will technically be a prospect and he would very clearly rank number one on this list. We spoke about him on a podcast last week. Still, as of now at the time of recording, waiting to see where he's going to sign. but yes, he would very clearly be the number one pitching prospect.

But for today's exercise, we will start with another name. And the Welsh's number one outside of Yamamoto is Paul Skeens. From the Pittsburgh Pirates, who was selected first overall in this year's draft, 2023, who is a 21-year-old 6-foot-6, features a huge fastball. We're talking averages like 98 miles per hour on the pitch. He has a plus slider, put a crazy numbers at LSU, made five starts towards the end of the season,

got two of those in at double. We know he has nasty stuff Welsh, but he also took on a massive workload at LSU. Is that something that worries you long term for Paul schemes? Yeah, I actually think it's hilarious. And there's definitely somewhat out there that's like screaming because we did that whole thing about like, oh, the pictures at the top. And then it's like, hey, guys, here's the top 10 pitchers that you should be terrified about if you're going to invest in. And only one of the thing I wanted to add, I recently decided I don't rank guys like Yamamoto as prospects

anymore. I just don't want to do it. Like, I think it convolutes lists. Hassan Kim convoluted the list. And I just kind of, even though they technically are. So that's why like even when I sent this list over to Frank, I kind of gave a precursor like, hey, if we're talking Yamamoto, he is, he would be my number one. And if you guys are a first year player, I probably am not taking him one or two, but like three is where I would lock in. But you could take him as high as that. But I just kind of decided to move away from it. The guy that you would be taking a long look at is Paul Skeen's. And, you know, I mean, the time in LSU speaks wonders. The usage breeds concern for sure.

But everybody, outside of the usage, by the way, the big thing that happened in the draft was big analytics focusing on the fastball shape. That was like his big thing. People did not like the shape of his fastball. And that's, you know, usually going to be just like release point in how it ends up moving. And they just don't like overall that it had suboptimal shape. and that, like back in the day with like Hunter Green and stuff like that, when you get like more straight line fastballs, just easier to hit.

They're saying that shape is less optimal. So if he's hitting 102, it just isn't as good as you possibly think. But it hits 102. He commands it. He has a crazy biting slider. And I'll tell you this. If you guys watched him in the college world series,

his change up looked phenomenal. If he's commanding his change up, that is going to be a huge strikeout pitch. And he was able to establish himself as a three pitch pitcher, you know, something, Kumar Rocker, who had really great stuff in college and obviously tapered back.

He just never mastered that art of the third pitch. I interviewed him coming out of high school, and he was talking about trying to develop a change-up. He literally had an AFL game last AFL where he threw three innings of all change-ups straight. I was just talking with someone about this today. And he was asked after the game, and he said, yeah, they want me to work on a change-up.

I mean, he's still working on that. Skeen already has that. I'm building all of this, to say that I think the, regardless of the shape stuff, I think that's something that analytically, the pirates are starting to push into that a little bit more, that they can work a little bit more on the shape.

But you're still talking about a commanded 100 plus mile an hour fastball with a plus slider and what I think can develop as a plus changeup for a guy that also can command big innings. Is he an injury risk? Absolutely. That type of workload with that big of a fastball, injury risk. Does he have a history of it? Not that we're dealing with right now.

So for all intents, not now, but for all intensive purposes, this is why I put him at the tippy top. He is the most pro-ready pitcher to pitch in the majors right now with big stuff. The other side of the coin with the workload thing, too, is he has proven he can take on workload. Because a lot of really highly regarded pitching prospects, you go look at the game log, they're going three, four innings at a time.

And you just don't know if their arm's capable of with, a true starter's workload. In Skeen's case, I think it's more likely that he is. Yeah, I find the hand-wringing over him in his fastball shape. Not that it's completely invalid, but there's so much focus on it. I think just because the pirates chose to take him over Dylan Cruz and Wyatt Langford to like can't miss huge upside outfield prospects. And so people are finding reasons like this is why they should have taken those outfielders.

instead of Paul Skeens. But like if you look at, well, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. If you look at, if you're talking about how safe a pitching prospect is, I don't think it gets much better than Paul Skeens, given how proven he is in college, how, you know, what he does offer stuff-wise,

the fact that we're probably going to see him in the majors this year, even though he was just drafted, you know, barring an Andrew Painter situation, we're probably going to see him in the majors. this year. So when I say safe, that doesn't mean like Paul Skeens is definitely going to be an ace, but is he going to hold down a rotation spot in the majors? I think it's a strong, you can feel good about betting yes on that.

When do you think that we will see Paul Skeens? Because obviously he's a college pitcher. He seems pretty polished. The pirates don't really have much need to push him. But my guess is we probably see him at some point in 2024, yeah. Yeah, this year. Is that what you said? Yeah, yeah, but do you have like a projection?

I don't think it's going to be like April or May. My guess is like maybe June at the earliest. I think we're still learning the timeline for prospect promotion since the new CBA. And it, there's a lot more emphasis on calling them up for the start of the season. I think if Paul Skeen shows he can handle it, he can handle it in spring training, because it seems like a foregone conclusion he'll be up at some point 2024, why not put him in a position to score them a draft pick if he does well? And I think there's a reasonable chance he could make the opening day roster.

It has to earn it. But there are certainly openings in that Pirates rotation. I would agree with that. The only thing I want to add, and I were spending a lot on skeins, though I would argue he deserves it, is that like, I truly don't think we fully have a comprehension. I think we all could agree with this. We don't have a comprehension of what this new prospect world status and elevation is until we have a couple years. Just like if we were to do projections, we want three years. I think following this coming season,

we'll have a much better grasp at do teams follow the Tanner? Look at what the Guardians did. It was Allen and Bibi and they're all coming up. And we saw Yuri Perez way more aggressive than we thought. If we see that happen again and we see some of the guys we're talking about on this list right now, it's going to give us a clear answer going into next year where it's like, yeah, man, if a pitcher hits that high A to double A going into a season,

anything is possible. It's really going to be about the organization itself and probably the markers that they have checked off. Like a Jacob Mizorowski probably wouldn't be because there's major command issues, but look at what happened with a guy like AJ Smith-Shavar. So anything really is truly possible. I think we need one more year to start

being a little bit more hyper-aggressive on our calls. All right. Your number two pitching prospect, Welsh, is Robbie Snelling from the San Diego Padres, who was the 39th overall pick in the 2022 draft. a 6-foot-3 lefty who was dominant in his first professional season, a 182 ERA, a 112 whip over a strikeout per inning. And I could be off base here, just kind of like poking around, looking at some other rankings, you know, Scott's rankings. But this feels like an aggressive ranking on Robbie Snelling. Well, so you kind of feel like maybe you're ahead of the market on him as your number two pitching prospect.

Absolutely. Yeah. And I would say prior to the AFL, this was Ricky Teeteman. and it was, I'm not suggesting, it was Ricky Teeteman. And I moved off of that after, you know, a lot of the things I talked about on here and seeing him. But a lot of this also has to do with the historic season that, I mean, Robbie Snelling was an absolute monster. I don't know if you said the actual number, 1.82 ERA. He had over 22 starts in 103 and two innings, 303.2 innings pitched this year. He also moved three levels in the Padres system. He went from A to high A and was able to finish a double A.

And guess what? The best production came from AA where he had 19 strikeouts in 17 innings pitch. By the way, 118 strikeouts to 38 walks, only four total homers. And Snelling has got a really solid three pitch arsenal, an absolutely spinny fastball that he commands around, get strikeouts, a loopy curveball. Again, more spin. And he's got to change him.

up that's still going in a really great organization that hones in and harnesses a lot of these starting pitchers. And you also have a team that has needs at starting pitching, that they're in their window. They're losing players on contracts. Obviously, they need to find ways to, you know, maybe it's going to be Drew Thorpe, who they just traded for. I think that's a possibility. But Robbie Snelling is their best pitching prospect.

And he might be one of the more underrated. So for what you're saying, yeah. Like this is aggressive in the market and it's aggressive to like what he just did last year. But I think if he's not top five for people, it's underselling how dominant he was as a pitcher. And this is also a lefty. So I like everything about, I like everything about Robbie Snelling. And he's 20 years old. And I would not be surprised if there was an AJ Smith-Shavre like push for him this coming year for a team that still needs it.

They do not have a solidified five-man rotation. And these guys are proven to us, why waste these bullets? Why are they wasting bullets? There's a lot of pressure in San Diego as well. He is the clear-cut best pitching prospect for that team, even with Drew Thorpe out. And he's got a season, a full hundred inning season to back it up. So you could argue he could push 13, 140. I have Robbie Snelling 8th among my pitcher prospects.

Seventh, if you don't have Yamamoto in there. I found that group, though, one through eight for me, if we're including Yamamoto. I found that to be kind of a tier. I do agree with you there. And I'm noticing you have some different names in there than I do, looking ahead here at your ranking. So our names don't totally match up,

but sorting out who I prefer between Robbie Snelling and Jackson Job, I thought was a difficult task. Hopefully I said that name right, Jackson Joke. You did. Yeah. Okay, good. With prospects, like, I hardly ever hear the name. I just write the name.

So I get it in my head how you're supposed to say, and sometimes it's totally wrong. Yeah, Jackson Job of the Tigers. Like, or even more so, Kate Horton and Robbie Snelling, like, parsing between them, I found to be a near impossible task. So I put Snelling at the bottom partly because he's had fewer innings in the minors. He younger. He just turned 20. Yesterday, like literally yesterday, as of this recording, he turned 20.

So I don't really have anything negative to say about Robbie Snelling, but that's why he's eighth for me while he's second for the Welsh. All right, let's take our first break. And when we return, we will talk about the aforementioned Jackson Job right after this. Welcome back in, and let's pick that things back up with the Welsh's number three pitching prospect. That is Jackson Job from the Detroit Tigers, a first round pick back in 2021. The third overall pick, we've heard his name for a while now. He was drafted out of high school, so obviously they're going to slow play it a little bit here with him.

He's now 21 years old. He's come along very nicely. He pitched out in the Arizona Folley by all accounts. Sounds like he looked pretty good out there as well. He missed a chunk of time this season due to a, due to lumbar spine inflammation. So obviously worth mentioning that. In the AFL, he made four more starts. 287 ERA, 121 whip.

He has a four pitch mix, which features a slider with 3,000 plus RPM. spin rate. So just elite level spin rate on that slider. Welsh, did you have a chance to watch? Go ahead, Scott. I want to put the 3,000 RPM in context because usually frequently throughout the season, you probably heard us raving about Charlie Morton's 3,000 RPM curveball. To get that on a slider, which arrives faster, obviously, that is a rare quality in a slider. Yeah, even rarer than it isn't a curveball. So I think I think I'm kidding. that right. Now I'm doubting myself. But yeah, I don't, it's a really impressive slider for Jackson Job and we saw it reflected in the production this year. Go ahead, Welsh. You were asking, did I see him? Yeah, I was going to ask if you saw him out in the AFL and if so, what did you think?

Yeah, I caught, I think he pitched four starts. There could be five. I saw three of them. The most exciting one was their last start. It was actually Teetman versus Job. And then they both immediately left the AFL. So they were just done after four or five starts. And what was interesting is I compared those two against each other because Job is like, he's like a bulldog. He's very aggressive to me, huge spin numbers. He's got multiple pitches he goes to. He was actually working on a cutter while he was out there. Talked to a couple different prospects about like, you know, how difficult it was in the AFO when you don't know a guy's working on something. And what's interesting about the cutter, if you think about it, he has that huge spin slider, 3,000 RPM. cutters have similarities and sometimes some cutters can be mistaken for sliders.

And you think that that's essentially like probably a slider that just has the RPMs taken off of it with the bite. So you're now going fastball, a cutter which is going to have a fastball look into slider movement, an insane slider. And then I want to say, I'm completely forgetting, I want to say, I think it's a change up. Yeah, the change up was out here. So here was my deal with Jackson Joe. I thought he looked elite. He was commanding the pitches. He had a little bit of issues in his very first start.

14 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio for Jackson Job and the minors this year. That might impress me even more than all the RPM on the slider is just how well he commanded everything. So one thing you notice, too, with Robbie Snelling, doesn't walk guys. I love command. And there are plenty of guys that don't represent great command. but I've always fell in love with George Kirby. And, you know, Frank, remember at first pitch, I got asked this question. It was like, hey, who do you think could just arguably not Garrett Colby, the number one starting pitcher?

And I was like, you know, George Kirby, actually, you know, because if you add more of a strikeout element to your already elite command, I think that's a recipe for big stuff. So in pitching prospects, when I can find like elite command guys, I think you can get past stuff. So here's my biggest problem with Jackson Job. Jackson Job was predictable. And when I was comparing him against Rocky Teeteman, Ricky Teeteman, Robbie Snowling, Ricky Teeteman, Ricky Teetamon's stuff was great. And he had one of the best changeups I've seen in person. And he would just blow this fastball up high in the zone and just screw people up and the changeup as well.

The problem is, is he didn't have the command. But Teeteman wasn't afraid to throw you a change up with the very first pitch. Jackson Job, like he was clockwork. And I think that's why he got. hit up out here. So when I started to ask myself, what's easier to work and change your pitch mix or is it building command on your already set pitches, which by the way, Tiedman's fastball does not equate to what Jackson Jobes was? And I just determined that I thought this was a young kid who had a lot of power behind his body, great spin numbers, four pitches, developing. And the biggest thing I picked

on him was like, I could kind of tell what pitch was going to come and what count. And he didn't mix things up. I think that's fixable. And that's why I think he's easy to fall in love with. He's got some swagger, big strikeouts, no big walk issues. I think there's a lot to like about him. And he does have the feel of like a frontline starter. So I like Job, I agree. It's like Skeens is in his own tier. I will say as much as I like Robbie Snelling, we are in like a tier range. I think if you wanted to have Job over Robbie Snelling, I think you can make the arguments of anything he's a four-pitch pitcher Jackson Job is. And the injury set him. him back, but, you know, the tigers might want to push him up soon.

The injury is really my only concern with Job. He threw, he, he, he, he made it only 64 innings, and so he hasn't proven that durability that's necessary. I mean, that, that is a necessary hurdle to clear if you're going to be a major league starter. And some, some big pitching prospects, uh, never clear it. Nate Pearson comes to mind. He got another 20 in the AFL.

He actually also, I'll just point out, he went deep into games. That was one thing they let him do. Sometimes AFO guys will go like two innings or something. He was pitching like five or six. Like they knew they had a plan. We're giving him, I think, four, whatever. I think it was five starts. Five starts.

He was going five or six innings per start. So they did build it up. But it doesn't take away from your point. He doesn't have a track record of good innings. And that's the stinky thing about pitching prospects. That's what kind of said, skein's a little bit aside. And Snelling is in a weird middle area, but there are plenty of pitchers that it's like,

even if they're awesome this year and they do come up to the majors, are they in a Yuri situation? Like, how much can they really go? And like, we all felt the effects of Yuri in season when we were like, I don't know, we can trust him to get the innings on the back half of the season.

So that would be my worry, like for now for Jackson Job if we were caring about this year. Yeah. Ultimately, I don't think it's a big deal. I think the positives far outweigh that one little concern. But I have seen him lower in other rankings. because of that concern. Just, oh, let's see him get to 80 innings.

Let's see him get... You say in AFL, with the AFL stats he did, okay. Let's see him get to 100 innings, you know, before we totally anoint this guy as an ace in waiting. The number four pitching prospect, a name that we've already mentioned a few times already, Ricky Teeteman with the Toronto Blue Jays, who is a big dominant lefty,

who also suffered an injury-riddled 2023. You look at the minor league numbers this year. He made 15 starts, but it's a little bit misleading because a lot of those outings were two, three-inning outings for him. But on the opposite end of what we're talking about with Jackson-Jope, Teetamon has struggled with control, right? We've seen some big walk numbers.

And Welch, I know that you had the chance to watch him closely in the NFL, and you pointed something out on Twitter about him potentially tipping his pitches. And I know, like, Enosar's commented on that too. So I guess maybe point out what you saw. Obviously, there's still a lot to like because he's dominant, but like between the injuries and the control. and potential tipping of pitches. You know, these are things that start to add up now for Teeteman.

Like, I want to love Ricky Teeteman. Like, I love this guy. But yeah, there were like multiple. And sometimes I'll ignore warning signs. I can't ignore all of them. And the thing that I pointed out was I had these pictures and people like, whoop, whatever, but it was pointed out. Actually, Lance Prasdowski confirmed it for me in some data.

I think it was a trackman data. He got from the minor leagues. But there is a huge separation between fastball and breaking pitch. So much so my whole big point was I looked at every single video I have of Teeteman and I called probably with 95% accuracy what pitch was going to come based on when I would pause it at the top of his hand. And the sarcastic people would be like, oh, okay, well, the players can't pause it. That's not the point. You play enough baseball. You work at it.

These guys are trained to look for any little tip. Well, you had a severe tip where I might be mixing it up, but I believe if people are watching on the. video, almost kind of vertical his arm slot was, was when he was throwing the breaking pitches. And then the fastball, his arm was out. And what was confirmed is the separation between his breaking and fastball pitches was about, I think, I think Lance said it was like seven inch difference, which would be the highest in all of baseball. No player had that big of a differential between their fastball and their breaking pitch,

or if you just want to highlight it as his change up. And the closest was Bryce Miller. So here is the deal. There's injury concerns. He gets wacky with his fastball. I'd also point out his fastball doesn't pop. He wasn't hitting. Like he could not command it at 94 in the AFL.

He could command it like, he sat 92. I'm sorry, he couldn't command it at like 96. When he sat around 92, 93, he could command it. So now it's like, okay, we can have a 92 mile on our fastball. And there's some pitching tip issues. I don't know. There's just some warning. signs, but it's one of the best changeups I've ever seen. He commands it at will. He,

I think he can be a starter, will be a starter, but there's just some stuff that he might be one of those guys that we just look at and we're like, God, we like, um, a Freddie Peralta type of guy. Like, we all love Freddie Peralta. We're like, geez, this is so great. But then it's like injuries hold back and then those weird slumps. I'm, I wonder what major league hitters do against that big of a differential. It's something they can fix. But it's also something I don't have to put him as the top pitching prospect when there's literally like three red flags. Even though I will tell you, I probably love him more than like everybody. I just, I love the guy.

I love the way he attacks pitchers. I think he's super smart. It's just like, I don't know if I can do it. Well, you probably don't love him more than everybody because I have Ricky Tiedeman ranked ahead of both Jackson, Job and Robbie Snelling. I don't know. Take that. You can have Ricky. Having said all that you said, 16.8K per 9.

That's ridiculous. is what Ricky Teeteman just put up in 2023, not counting the AFL, 16.8K per nine. And yeah, I mean, I was reading about the arm slot issue for Ricky Teeteman, and it is something that seems to be a work in progress. Part of it is what makes his fastball a good swing and miss pitch is that lower arm angle with it,

but the change-up doesn't play the same with that low arm angle. Change of an amazing pitch. fastball gets a lot of swings and misses. One of those pitches is going to be compromised if he evens out the arm ankle. And so I don't know how he's, I don't know how likely he is to fix it. But with 16.8K per 9, it could be that it's just, it just doesn't end up being a big deal. AA hitters are different for Major League hitters. I get that.

But clearly Ricky Teeteman is hard to square up. And Lance thought that he was, by the way, He thought the differential was made a little too much about anything as well. Like he didn't disagree with me that there's a problem and there is a clear visual. Like this is a tip. But he thought like it's not maybe as big of a deal. Because at the end of the day, I think Eric Cross said this. It's like I raise this, which by the way, we want to raise these questions.

Like we should raise these things like if there is concern, even if it doesn't end up being anything. And Cross was like, hey, listen, this is going on and he's still dominated. I would argue like dominant changeups. They're not easy for like minor league hitters. And I don't know how many like 18, 19, 20 year old hitters are like hyper focus on picking up tipping pitches and stuff like that at that level. So I think there's adjustments to be had all around. But he's such a unique talent. Like I want to be in the Ricky Teetabin business.

But even I have to consider that there are some, some worry. Like it could be an epic fail or it could be a huge payoff if there is a discount. And I'm not a part of the reason I think maybe I have Teetam had hired than some of those other guys in spite of those risks. and I'm not totally sure with how I've landed with this, if I'm satisfied with where I've landed with this. But given how unpredictable pitching prospects are in general, why elevate a guy on predictability? You know, like, why not just sell out totally for upside

if you're going for, if you are going to invest? So you believe there is a pitching prospect then? Because then that is devoid of injury concern, that argument, which I'm kind of four. I've always said this. I'm a little gunslinger in the prospect Wild West. Like I like to take chances and stuff like that. And I play the upside.

My ranks represent a lot more upside than a lot of people. Pitching it's just like this is the one spot where I'm kind of like, also on top of everything we've talked about, there's some serious injury risk. Teamm has had some serious injuries. There was almost concern. There might be Tommy John mid this past season and no one really spoke about. He missed time with shoulder and biceps issues this year, which.

Well, I mean, I guess. serious. But it's not, the only reason, injuries aren't the only reason high-end pitching prospects fail. Sometimes they get to the majors and they're just not good. And so, I don't know.

I'm willing to aim a little more for upside if I'm going to make that big investment in pitching. Scott is the Brett Farr of a fantasy baseball this season. We have heard it on the pitching previews already that we've done, the recap. Scott is like selling out for upside. He can get like 50s. Most touchdowns and most picks.

With pitchers specifically, yes. Let me take this a little further. I'm just saying, Scott, we've talked about four pitchers in 35 minutes. I'll burn through another one. I'm about to bring up another one. Because we've leaped past this guy in my own rankings. I see the Welsh has him eighth, and his name has been brought up already. Andrew Painter.

I've noticed a trend within the prospecting world to just bury a pitcher when he has Tommy John surgery. And I've never really understood it because Tommy John surgery, okay, he's not going to be around for a year, year and a half. But the effectiveness, this, the effectiveness of that procedure is so well established at this point that for a prospect in particular, like, I can wait, you know, I can wait a little longer. I understand they don't always come back the same, but they usually do. And again, we're talking about an unpredictable class of prospect anyway. So I don't, I still have Andrew Painter third in my pitching rankings because I think he's that good. Even though he's recovering from Tommy John surgery, I still have him third.

We will probably see him pitching in the majors next year. So I don't think it's that big of a setback for his development. I think his upside is incredible. For a guy who's 6 foot 7 and all that does for his fastball, his command is incredible. And he was on the verge of making the major league roster as a 20-year-old last year? Was he how to even turn 20? He was 19 at the time. Yeah.

Yeah. So I still have painter third just behind Yamamoto and Paul. Let me add a little thing. And Frank, we can cross him off and we can burn through some of these others. But so let me give you one anecdotal thing. Because I don't disagree with you. And I look at myself sometimes when I do that. Like, I don't want to.

I do think he's elite. He's young enough to take the surgery and come back. And, you know, maybe I even ding them. I will say it. I never took him out of my top 100, which I kept. But like, to your point, there are people that will just take them off of lists and stuff like that. And the surgery is very successful. Part of mine would be, you just don't know, like, how long does this carry? Like, Forrest Whitley, we would have had the same excuses back then.

We're like, oh, he's elite and he needs a surgery. And this is a great success. And he comes back. And then he's not right. And he felt twinges. And he repeated the AFL. So I think you should have some level of concern. And you have to weigh the injury with the upside versus what else is in the market. And compared to what else is on the market, I do believe there's at least five or six other guys that just don't have the current same risk. Other things, I would, two other things I'd point out is, I believe he's going to miss all of this year because I think if you remember, they waited and waited and waited and they had it in like July, so he won't pitch in 2024.

He might pitch in the AFL next season. I think I said 2025. No, you said 2024, but it's all good. I meant 2025. And then the last thing is in my prospect 1 ADPs that I do that we've cited, I do multiple drafts to create a prospect ADP system. He went five overall in one draft. Five overall of all prospects.

That is, I think, the highest pitcher outside of Yamamoto, who we made available that went in the entire draft. Now, it didn't follow. It was only one draft. That's why I do multiple drafts. But the bank is still there for many into what your argument is. And he was five overall of all available prospects. So there are still plenty of people that share your sentiments. Again, it's just some of the, there's risk.

There's pitchers are riskier than any other. spot. Well, you brought up the Forrest Whitley thing, and I see that when a pitch, a high-end pitching prospect busts like that, I take it more as them's the brakes. You invested in a pitching prospect is going to happen sometimes. Rather than, okay, let me figure out why we were wrong about Forrest Whitley and try to apply that to the future prospect rankings, because I just think that's a losing bet to try and do that. If there's any lesson to take from Forrest Whitley, it's You know, don't draft them as a top five prospect overall. Don't draft any pitcher as a top five prospect overall because of that inherent risk.

Yeah, I agree. All right. Well, again, we've talked about five pitchers in 40 minutes. I did want to get to. We're halfway through. Yeah, there you go. We got 20 minutes left to talk about. We've got to talk about five pitchers.

I wanted to do trade targets. There is some news to talk about. Anyway, I wanted to get to this earlier. I mentioned at the top that we had some announcements. So just quickly run through this. First up, we are proud to announce that FBT is a finalist for the best baseball podcast category in the Sports Podcast Awards. Thanks to all of our listeners, we actually won the award last year, and now we're looking to go back to back. So we do appreciate everyone who voted for us last year, and to help us bring home the hardware,

you can find the link in the podcast and YouTube descriptions or scan the QR code in the top right corner of the screen. If you're watching on YouTube, the whole process should take you. less than a minute and we'd really appreciate it. Thank you for your continued support. How many times a day can we vote? That's a great question. My guess is you should try and max it out as much as possible. Let's test it. Someone test it out and let us know how many times you can vote. Just keep on going. Second, if you follow on social media, you've probably already heard the news, but our buddy here, the Welsh will be joining fantasy pros full time. I hope I didn't set that up like he's joining us full time. I didn't mean to say. The Welsh is joining fantasy

pros full time and obviously it's awesome and we're very happy for you congratulations many have asked what does that mean for this podcast where's number one question i have been asked out more than almost more than the congratulations has literally been what about frank stanfield scott white fantasy baseball today and here is the answer is that the welsh isn't going anywhere he is still going to be sticking around with us in 2024 it might not be as scheduled you know definitely this day of the week, but we'll have him on sporadically and he'll be on and share his thoughts on prospects and baseball and all this other kind of crazy stuff. You're breaking people's hearts. No Welsh Wednesday is what you're saying. Who knows? Maybe it will be a few Wednesdays mixed in there.

But congratulations to you, buddy. It's awesome news. Thank you very much. I'm part of any other reason is, I mean, I would say part of, I can't say a part in a hundred. You guys played a huge role in that. And you guys having me on every single week and not everybody hating me and people having me on and accepting and stuff like that. Those are the ways that people get to do stuff in the industry. And I can't speak highly enough of everybody here at CBS. And I'm kind of ecstatic that I get to stick around and do these. I mean, I'm, I say kind of like, I'm super ecstatic. And I love doing this show. And this has been a big, big part of me in the industry in my life. So I'm, I'm very excited about my new opportunity with fantasy pros. They're amazing. And I am very excited I get to hang with you

guys here. And we enjoy having you on. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll get to the final five prospects. We got some news to talk about. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Here's how this is going to work. I can't have you guys both weigh in on every single prospect that we have left. So Welsh, I'm going to throw two names your way. And then Scott, you'll get Max Meyer after that. But the names you'll get Welsh, Kate Horton, who is a first round pick with the Cubs in 2022, just had a very successful pro debut season, 265 ERA, a one whip on the nose, well over a strikeout per inning. He is 22 years old.

He made six starts at AA. I think there's a chance we could see him up at some point this season. The other name is Hurston Waldrop of Scots, Atlanta Braves. First round pick in this year's draft, 24th overall. Already made a huge impression, and he just feels like someone that could fly up through the system. He already made eight starts in the minors. Three at AA, one at AAA. Just crazy stuff.

Three pitch legit mix on all three pitch. which is, and not to disparage the other pitchers on this list, Hurston Waldrop kind of feels like the one that has enough upside where he can kind of move to the top, right? Like, by mid-season, he could be like the number one pitching prospect in baseball. It has that feel. Welles, give me your thoughts on Waldrop and Kate Horton. Yeah, I couldn't agree more.

I took him in my prospect 180Ps. I took him in the fifth round. That was the only pitcher I took in the top 10 rounds, I think. I agree. I kind of don't even like my own personal rank of it. I want to keep pushing him up. I want to be in business. I have a little bit of question if he does have impact this year because they,

you kind of get your rotation set. I guess Elder could completely fall apart. You've got Smith Schaver, who's kind of the next man up. But Waldrop, I had somebody tell me in the early draft process when we were still in college and stuff last year that Herston Waldrop, if not for command,

might be perceived as a exponentially better pitcher than Paul Skeens. Like he would be the guy because they love the stuff. They love the fastball, this splitter that he, he throws. Big strikeout pitch. I love Herce and Waldrop. I love that you get him at some type of a discount.

You don't pay Paul Skeen's prices. If I had a lower pick in the Scott White League, I'd probably be targeting him. If I had a pick in the five or six range, just letting everybody know. I think he is probably, of all these pitchers we're going to talk about, he is probably my favorite combination of cost versus investment or upside.

Cost versus upside that I want to have if I were starting a new fresh draft. Nothing to take away from Kate Horton because he's dominant, big fastball, big kind of fresh arm out of college as well. 117 strikeouts this past year. Only 27 walks again, give me command, pounds the zone, has an opportunity to go. But the more I'm talking about it out loud, I think I might, I think I probably need to put Waldrop above Horton because I really do love him. And I love seeing Scott's face when I talk positive about a break.

pitcher like that. How do you, well, I know we can't ask the questions, but how do you have? No, that's all right. I was going to kind of break what I said and all right, Scott, I'll give you the opportunity. 11th? About Hurston, Waldrow. Yeah, 11th. 10th if you remove Yamamoto. He's mine. He's mine then. You can have Tied him and I get Walg. I am a little surprised how many rank A.J. Smith Shavar, a head of Waldrop in the brave system. And I think that made me a little hesitant to go completely head over heels for him. But I don't think it's really a contest, which of those two is better. Waldrop with the big

strikeout potential that splitter dropping off a cliff with this, he has this overhand motion. That isn't really in vogue in today's game,

but it really makes that splitter. It's such a nasty pitch. Yeah. Has to sort out command. But the Braves are like rocketing Waldrop through the system, the way they did with Smith Schauver

and Spencer Strider, already making it to AAA before the end of, you know, his two months in the miners, sort of like the Rangers did with White Langford. So I like what you said, though, Frank.

I like what you said that I think he could legit be like midseason. If you were to give me all these names and say, who's the guy that could be like the number one? And don't give me like one and two. I would say Waldrop. Like I 100% agree. Like he could be the number one. He could have another like sub two ERA with all the strikeouts in the world. And the command is if the, I think when lists get updated, like people are going to come off of the Smith Schaver for Waldrop,

as long as they feel confident about the command. Yeah. It just comes down to that. He walked 16, Hurston Waldrypted, in 29 in the third inning. That is just not going to be feasible. That's not going to cut it. But the stuff is tantalizing. Your number seven pitching prospect is Max Meyer from the Marlins' former third overall pick back in 2020,

who actually made two starts in the majors back in, I guess that would have been 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August of that year. And he will now be 18 months removed from that surgery by the time. pitchers and catchers report. So it should be all systems go here for Max Meyer. Scott, you will get the first crack here. Dominant minor league career, a nasty slider, an organization that knows how to develop pitching.

There is a lot to like with Meyer. It's just how many endings are we going to get this season the first year back off Tommy John surgery? Well, and this is why there seems like there's a contradiction here that I don't really understand because you said Max Meyer had a dominant minor league career. who's good in the minors. Now nearly as good as Andrew Painter.

We haven't seen Max Meyer come back from Tommy John's surgery yet, just like Andrew Painter. So I don't understand ranking Meyer. But you're getting a whole year out of him in the majors. As the Welsh is, well. Yeah, I'm getting a full year and I'm, and I mean, he's already Major League ready. And I'm not arguing that Painter like isn't,

but Meyer has hit the majors and he is ready to pitch this year. That year is worth so much to you in a Dynasty League that you will take the, lesser pitcher. I think he is... I think he's a tier lesser different. I don't think he is clearly. I mean, again, I get influenced

sometimes by certain things. You know what influences me? I asked Nolan Gorman, who is the most dominant pitcher you have faced in your minor league career? Without hesitation, he looked to me and said, Max Mayer. He's like, he's the nastiest pitcher I've ever faced from a stuff and a

mix combination. So again, like, Andrew Painter might be a tier above, but like, we know he is recovered from his injury. He will have a full year ahead. I have them super close. I have them super close in my overall ranks, I'll point out. We don't have, and we don't know if Max Meyer is the same. And his arsenal's built on the slider, which is especially tough on that elbow.

What's funny about this is I kind of felt like I had to make my case for ranking Max Meyer as high as 16th, because I think a lot of people are going to leave them off like their top 100 list, uh, this upcoming season. And I'm ranking him 16th in my starting pitcher rankings, but you have, Max Meyer 7th, so I'm feeling like, okay, I got to play devil's advocate here. Sure. The thing to remember about, to put a positive spin on it, the thing, a couple things to remember about Max Meyer, he had just mastered the change up that the Marlins were developed, like,

teaching all of their young pitchers at that time. It was like the patented Marlins change up, and Max Meyer had just mastered it prior to getting called up to the majors. If you just look at the 20, 22 stats before the elbow surgery, you know, 369 ERA in the miners doesn't blow you away. His first six starts at AAA that year, 172 ERA, 0.86 whip 11.2K per 9. That's when the elbow troubles started. It didn't start with Tommy John's surgery, but that's when he first started having issues

with his elbow. And I wonder what Max Myers' 22 stats would have looked like if he hadn't continued to pitch through that elbow entry based on that 172 ERA to start out. All right. let's keep things moving. We mentioned Andrew Painter earlier, who is the Welsh's number eight pitching prospect. Number nine is Jacob Mizirovsky from the Milwaukee Brewers,

who was a second round pick in 2022. Very unique pitching prospect. Big, long, lanky, right-handed pitcher, six-foot-seven, massive strikeout potential. We're talking 110 strikeouts over 71 in a third innings, and he pitched in the futures game. He turned heads. He was amazing in that.

But this is that kind of, I think, high upside, high risk pitching prospect because there's, there is bullpen risk because we're talking about not great control here. Well, your thoughts on Mizorovsky. Yeah, you nailed it. I mean, he is absolutely electric with the fastball and he would destroy guy. I mean, his slider in the futures game just made everybody just want to throw up. Like, he is a disgusting long-limbed pitcher who has massive control problems. So again, like, you can weigh all your own risks. Like, you could argue massive control issues are as risky as downgrading a pitcher with like arm problems. You know, that is like Tommy John, but I have Andrew Painter above Mizraowski,

but you could argue Midrowski's top two pitches if commanded. I mean, he'll be one of the most elite pitchers out there, but he could also go the way of Mason Miller and be in the back end of a bullpen. But I like pitchers like that, those guys that have electric electric stuff where if it doesn't work out as a starter, I know they can go back to the bullpen. I can stomach valuing those players like Mason Miller would be the same thing. If he goes to, if he's a closer, obviously I didn't get what I wanted, but now I've got a top flight closer. I like that.

There's plenty of pictures you can look at and you're like, I don't know, that guy would, you know, he might be a middle of relief, maybe long. That-da-da-da-da. Miserowski's a guy you can like instantly put as a setup man and then when given the opportunity, he is closer material if he doesn't work as a starter. I feel very confident about that. And as somebody who has Miserovsky in the Skylight Dynasty League, Something that I like about him is that he's in the Brewers organization.

This is an org that has developed Brandon Woodruff and Corbyn Burns and Freddie Peralta and pitcher after pitcher. They've done a really good job. None of whom was like a huge prospect either. Yeah. So I'm pretty excited about him, but I do realize there is some reliever bullpen risk if he cannot improve on that control. Last name here is number 10, A.J. Smith Shaver from Scott's Atlanta Braves, who started the season this year as a 20-year-old. in high A and wound up making it to the majors, which is like unheard of territory. Just crazy the way that they pushed him this season.

He had an awesome season in the minors and wasn't as dominant in once he got to the Braves, 25 and a third innings, 426 ERA, 1-11 whip, strike out to walk ratio, not very good. Scott, I'm going to throw this one your way. And I'm going to be hard on him because obviously he's young. Look, he's only 21 years old. It's his first taste of adversity. but just the things that we use to measure pitchers, strike out to walk ratio,

the low spin rates, low whiffs, bad control. I was not really impressed by it. And saying all that, I realized he's very young and obviously he can improve in the offseason. You know, I kind of agree with you. I rank AJ Smith-Shaw verse 17th, and part of the reason I rank him 17th

is because so many others are high on him, it's the Lee Corso. What's the thing Lee Corso always says? That means somebody knows something I don't know, and I'm going with that someone. But that still maybe AJ Smith-Shava only 17th for me. He throws hard. He moved fast. He was raw to start out.

So maybe people are projecting a lot more growth onto him than I am capable of seeing. But I, you know, he's a name. And he's a name and he's already gotten exposed to the majors. I guess we really need to hear why the Welsh likes A.J. Smith-Shavre so much. you would be the one to answer that. I just want to squeeze a couple more names in here in contrast to that because two guys I have in my top 10 who aren't in your top 10 and I would definitely take over AJ Smith Schaver are Kyle Harrison of the Giants who, of course we saw late last year and I think look more impressive than Smith Schaubber. And Daniel Espino, another guy coming off injury, his to the shoulder, which is more concerning, more risk there with Daniel Espino. But the numbers were just absurd before he suffered that shoulder injury.

So I'm still willing to take the risk on a Spino. Yeah, the 10 cent tour, I mean, Smith Schavers is built a lot around like there's a multi-pitch combination at a really young age that was trusted into a rotation and there's proximity. And we're starting getting into a range of like, I love Noble Meyer. I think Noble Meyer is someone like, I want to invest in a first year player. I think he could be elite. But like, I have Noble Meyer right after Smith Schaver. Yeah.

But it's like, would you want like, you want like a high school? pitcher coming out and want to try to wait three years, that's the risk? Or do you want to take like a young pitcher in a great organization for developing pitching an offseason to then come in and readjust that? So that's kind of my Smith-Shawber stuff. I'm not like enamored, but there's a proximity thing. The other two guys, Cal Harrison, you want to talk about command issues as command issues as command issues exist. But they got so much better. They didn't. There weren't an issue in the majors. He's 11. Like he's like right. He's like the next guy here. So it's not far off. Aspenio, I'm very far on. I love him, but there are nothing but injury risk. He's also completely changed his body.

I remember talking with him when he was in rookie ball. He looks like a different human being now. Big muscular guy learning to kind of work with all of that. And he's had major arm issues. And he could be electric. But he also, to me, feels like he could go the Mason Miller route. Just can't get healthy, getting low innings. And then all of a sudden they just say, maybe we put him in the back of the bullpen. Not saying that's going to happen. He is a shoulder capsule. So a lot of things could go wrong for Daniel Espino at this point. Yeah. So that is the upside is like legitimate top five in baseball kind of pitcher.

Only other, only like philosophical thing I throw out to you too is like, you know, you said on that last episode I was with you guy with you on like with pitching prospects, you're just like, or with pitching in general, you're just like, I'm in.

I want strikeouts. I'm not on the other noise. I think you have a similar take in your prospects. And that's okay. If you want to talk about pure. upside. Daniel Espino and Andrew Painter belong on the top five. This is not even a question. If you want to just only focus on upside and nothing else, T.M. And you can put in there as well, not top five. Yeah, yeah, but I'm just like the argument, you know what I'm going with that.

I'm trying to contextualize as best as I can the risks that I weigh. And some of them are injury based. Some of them are command based. And sometimes I cater to some other spots. I cater to command pitchers a little bit better. And I sometimes, I don't cater as much to proximity as other people, but I have that weighted here. And I think it's interesting that you are a little bit off of the proximity, which is good. And you are just hyper-focused on pure upside talent. And that's not a bad way to approach prospects either. Just people have to be aware of the inherent risk, especially with pitchers. Can I take just like a minute to rattle off a few pet prospect for pet prospect pitchers who I'll never get a chance to talk about otherwise. And they're a little lower in

the rankings for me. But I want to emphasize them specifically because of swinging strike rate, which is what popped for me on Spencer Strider. And I think we could potentially see some surprise breakthroughs here with this trio as well. Carson Wisenhunt of the Giants. Insane change-up. One of the best change-ups in all of my. Him and him and Ricky Teeteman, the two best changeups I have seen in person. 18% swinging strike rate across three levels this past season for Wisenhunt. Christian Scott of the Mets, 17% swinging strike rate and a 69% strike rate. So like crazy good command and Christian Scott was getting the whiffs too.

I think he's being overlooked because he was a reliever in college. And that's still being held against them, even though he showed in his first full year in the Mets organization that it could take on a full workload. Christian Scott is that one. And then maybe the biggest reach, Kyle Hurt of the Dodgers, who we actually saw in the majors.

He made one appearance at the end of the season, went two innings, struck out three. I believe his first inning was against like Juan Soto, Mani Machado and Fernando Tatis, and he just mowed them all down. Kyle Hurt and the miners had a 20% swinging strike rate this year, 14.9 K-per-9. He's 25 years old, which I think is.

what gets held against them. And the Dodgers don't exactly have an opening. So there's a lot of that relief concern for Kyle Hurt. But as somebody who, that be the reason I kept Spencer Strider off my top 100 a couple years ago. I don't want to make the same mistake with Hurt. Maybe he'll just be a reliever, a dominant reliever.

But if not, if he gets a chance to start, he could surprise people. And I will now throw out a few other names that the Welsh sent me as honorable mentions, Drew Thorpe, who was traded over to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, who was one of the best pitchers in the minors this year,

and my guess will make some starts in the majors for the Padres at some point this season. We broke him down extensively on the Juan Soto Emergency Podcast, so you can go back and listen to that. And on the other side of the coin, Will Warren, who's actually in the Yankees organization, another one where I think, he's like now 24 years old.

He could make an impact for that team. They have some injury risk in their rotation. Carlos Hordaun, Nestor Cortez, coming back from injury. As of now, he is their SP5. My guess is they'll bring at least one, maybe two more pitchers. They publicly said it. They publicly said that Will Warren and, God, I'm forgetting the other person now.

It's escaping me. But Will Warren and maybe Chase Hampton, it was. I can't remember. Clayton Beater? Yeah, yeah, it might be Beater, who's a former Dodger pitcher. They were vying for that five spot. So Will Warren. I'm glad that you mentioned Thorpe and Warren because I really, really like them.

And I had Thorpe in this 10 to just talk about for the sake of it, but I adjusted. I put Smith Chavar in for our last one. Yeah, Will Warren needs to improve the control, like many of these pitching prospects we talk about, kind of unique, like low 90s with a sinker, but he has a sweeper that has over 3,000 RPM on the spin rate. So again, that's kind of the pitch that's taking over baseball right now,

and Will Warren has it. So that's something that obviously I like to hear in a pitching prospect. In terms of the proximity names, the five that will and should make an impact this season. Number one is Paul Skeens with the Pirates. Number two is Kate Horton with the Cubs. Number three is Kyle Harrison, who we spoke about a little bit. We saw at the end of the season with the Giants.

His early ADP is 254. Number four is A.J. Smith-Shawver with the Braves. And number five is Jordan Wicks, a name that we have not talked about. He made his debut this year. Kind of unique in that he doesn't throw hard. He's kind of like the soft tossing lefty. 91, 92 miles per hour.

Change up is his most used pitch. But you know what? He's in a rotation with a pitcher that has made a career out of that in Kyle Hendricks. So maybe he can learn a thing or two from him. And my guess is Jordan Wicks will be in the Cubs rotation to open the season as well. I put Teetam in on this list personally. He's like my number 100 pitcher in redraft leagues. I battled the whole like how I wanted to approach proximity and stuff like that.

I just the innings, I left Job and Teeteman off of it. simply because of when they could come up and the innings impact. But yeah, I don't disagree. Let's quickly wrap up with some news. The news of the day, the last minute of the show. There's really not much going on. But something that I did want to mention, because it does have fantasy relevance.

The Padres are reportedly signing Japanese reliever Yuki Matsui, who has loads of experience as a closer in Japan. He's 28 years old, 236 career saves, actually became the fastest ever to record 200 saves in Japan. A 243 ERA in his career, 110 whip, 12K per 9, but he's a lefty and he's only 5 foot 8. So some clear potential obstacles there for Yuki Matsui, but it has not affected him yet.

His ability to obviously pitch and perform and be amazing. The Padres have a clear opening in their bullpen. They need a closer. So, Scott, I kind of feel like the first save opportunity I think it's going to Yuki Matsui. Yeah, I mean, it's hard to say, and they may be dodgy about it right up to opening day. So I think Yuki Matsui is going to have a hard time eclipsing that late round range, even in leagues where saves are scarce, because I would be concerned that it would be a closing tandem with Robert Suarez, who they just signed to a big deal last year. And he throws right-handed while Matsui throws left-handed.

Matt Sui doesn't throw especially hard. He's low 90s. I don't know if you mentioned that. The shape of his fastball is apparently good, coming from a lower angle, him being 5 foot 8. That makes sense. And he pairs it with a splitter that drops off. So just maybe the contrast between those two pitches

helps that fastball to play up for Matsui. But I think he's going to be more of a late round target. I'd draft him over somebody like Will Smith, who probably has a more obvious path to saves with the Royals. but I don't think he's going to be like a top 20. He could become a top 20 reliever, but I don't think that's how Matsui will be targeted on draft day. And we actually have Greg Jewett coming on the podcast next week.

We've talked about all the positions in the offseason so far, except for relief pitcher. So we can get his thoughts on where he thinks the Padres are going to go in their bullpen as well. Some other quick news looks like David Stearns is bringing the brew crew to Queens because the Mets acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor in exchange. change for Coleman Crow, a solid depth move for the New York Mets. And as of now, Hauser is the SP4 in the rotation. Tyrone Taylor is pencilled in as the starting left fielder.

I say penciled because it's still early in the offseason. Things could change. But Tyrone Taylor has showed flashes in the past. You know, when he returned in the second half from his elbow injury, he hit 269, nine homers, five steals, in 854 OPS. Well, I think Tyrone Taylor is just a name you have to know in deeperly. if nothing else. Yeah, I mean, I think you bring him in so you solidify your fourth outfield.

I would be shocked if he's a starter. But yeah, no-in-deep leagues, maybe in L-only leagues. You never know what is going to go on and how they're going to position this roster out. Ronnie Maricio might have took away some flexibility, you know, like maybe they would experiment with Vientos in the outfield a little bit more. He's been working in the off-season trying to get faster. But that clearly seems like that's going to be more platoony between like Beatty and him. but yeah, I mean, early drafts,

if you're doing like a draft and hold like 50 round, yeah, you jump on that to maybe get some late categories, but I expect him to be a fourth outfielder for the team. More than anything, I think this move further clears the path for Jackson Chorio, not to mention South Florida and Garrett Mitchell. I mean, that could be the starting outfielder for the Brewers on opening day, which is pretty exciting for fantasy purposes.

Another thing to think about with the Mets also is if they didn't fill that out, maybe you bring in a veteran to compete with a guy like Drew Gilbert. Not saying it's going to happen, but they acquire Drew Gilbert that maybe they experiment out with, you know, this was a college bat who's seen plenty already that maybe they give him a shot. Again, I think they bring somebody in. But yeah, this could have like dual effects of maybe showing that a guy like Gilbert gets a shot. And this is one more step where Cheerio is just locking in. I didn't forget about Yellich, by the way.

I was thinking DH for Christian Yellich. But we'll see. one of my favorite players ever. Andrew McCutcheon has re-signed with the Pirates on a one-year $5 million deal, now 37 years old, and utility only for fantasy. So not sure that there's much here

from a fantasy baseball perspective. Obviously worth mentioning, a name to know for, I guess, like, NL-only league, something like that. The Yankees got Jeter. Jeter downs. They claimed them off waivers and just a fun name thing.

I thought that was worth mentioning. And the latest rumor is John Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Angels have, had a recent dialogue with Blake Snell. Interesting. The Blue Jays apparently have some interest in Reese Hoskins and Justin Turner, maybe to fill their DH spot. And no deal yet for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though there was at least one report that the Dodgers were planning to offer between $250 and $300 million. Again, today is our final podcast before Christmas. So Merry Christmas

to everyone out there. Happy to holidays. We appreciate each and every one of you. And we're going to wrap there. Scott and the Welsh. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.