Fantasy Baseball Today - Top Third Base Prospects & Dynasty Trade Targets! (11/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 16, 2023

Before we get into third base prospects, we have Cy Young winners (1:00)! ... Junior Caminero is a top-5 overall prospect entering 2024 (3:30). ... Noelvi Marte brings another power-speed combo to the... Reds (10:37). ... Colt Keith and Coby Mayo both offer big power (15:45). ... Brady House and Brock Wilken also offer huge power (22:36)! ... What did The Welsh see from Graham Pauley and Ivan Melendez (27:20)? ... How early might we see Justyn-Henry Malloy with the Tigers (34:20)? ... News (41:07): we also have Manager of the Year award winners. ... Which third basemen are we looking to buy and sell in dynasty (46:40)? ... We wrap up with the award winners from the Arizona Fall League (56:23). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Do you want to learn about third base prospects? Good. Me too.
Starting point is 00:00:30 Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, November 16th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris. the Welsh. Today on the show, you guessed it. We're breaking down the top third base prospects heading into 2024. We'll talk about some dynasty trade targets and the Arizona Fall League is over.
Starting point is 00:00:50 Awards have been handed out. So we'll quickly run through those at the end of the podcast. Speaking of awards, congrats to my guy, Gary Cole for winning the AL-Sai-Young, the first of his career. And to Blake Snell for winning the NL-Sai-Young.
Starting point is 00:01:04 He is now won in both the A-L and the NL. So his second Siong Award, No surprise. Both of those pitchers are ranked inside Scott's top 10 entering 2024. Yeah, one of them just barely. But that is true. I wonder which one. New and 10 is what Cole and Snell are ranked.
Starting point is 00:01:24 Really interesting that this is Cole's first Cy Young Award, considering he had one of his less dominant seasons in the last six years, maybe the least dominant season in the last six years for Garrett Cole, but it's the first time he's awarded Siyang. Really, I mean, not that there was any doubt he was the best A.L. pitcher. It kind of speaks to the state of pitching overall. Also really weird that Blake Snell has now this rare distinction of having won a Sion in each league,
Starting point is 00:01:56 because those are basically the only two seasons where he's been at all in the Siong conversation. So, you know, notable in both cases, notable award winners in both cases. Yeah, I mean, Blake Snell, you can look at it from start to start month to month. I mean, obviously year to year. It's just a roller coaster up and down. And now Blake Snell is a free agent.
Starting point is 00:02:19 We'll find out where he winds up this offseason. Welsh, you're here, bud. We were talking beforehand. Third base prospects, I would say of all the positions we talked about so far, third base looks pretty awesome. I think it's the best yet. I would agree yet, yet, because the best is yet. to come. Did you bud me, by the way? Scott, did you hear how hard he budded me? He's like,
Starting point is 00:02:40 hey there, bud. I got butt. I felt like an attack. I actually feel attacked. I don't know if you're a buddy guy. I'm not your pal, friend. I felt very buddied guy, pal. You can call me big guy next. You say, hey there, big guy. All right. Well, I just wrote it down on my fancy notepad here. Bud. Don't say bud to the well. He doesn't like that. No, I'm just teasing. No, I'm just teasing. Third base is good. Now, you're right about this. I didn't like doing catcher. I didn't like your text about first base.
Starting point is 00:03:10 Second base was all right. Things get a little bit more fun here. And it only gets better as we move on, going through short stops, getting to outfield pitchers. It only gets better here. So thank God. Thank God for the good prospects. All right.
Starting point is 00:03:23 Let's start up at the top. Again, these are the top 10 third base prospects according to the Welsh's rankings. Number one, up top. We've got Junior Camerero from the Tampa Bay raise. Scott and I spoke about him. him a little bit the other day on our third base recap, some early rankings in there as well. Those were redraft rankings, so should give you an idea of how much we like Junior Caminero.
Starting point is 00:03:44 He's one of the top five prospects in all of baseball. He's just 20 years old. He went bonkers last year in the minors, hit 324, 31 homers, a 975 OPS across high A and double A. I mean, this is serious age to level stuff. I mean, what he's doing as a 20 year old is amazing. Welsh, just how good can Junior Caminero be? What is the upside for him? Well, if you ask close and personal friend of the podcast, Frank Stanful and I's, Carson Williams, our good, close personal friend, he just hasn't invited us to Fortnite yet.
Starting point is 00:04:17 He would tell you that he's the best player that he's ever played with. And, you know, I want to say that there's a debate. There's kind of not. Everybody's kind of set. Many people have settled into like White Langford is consensus number one. I still don't think we're at the level where we end. and say there's no challenge because I think there is challenge. Jackson Holiday is in there.
Starting point is 00:04:37 And I think there are some people that would challenge that with Junior Camero as well. You know, the hit tool is obvious. From a fantasy perspective, there might be a bigger question about the stolen bases. He was the only teenager in the minor leagues, if I'm remembering correctly, to get over 30 homers. I believe the only two to do it. The two youngest were Abamelik Ortiz, who was in the AFL. And Junior Camerero was the youngest 31 homers this past year. he is a force with the bat.
Starting point is 00:05:05 I think there is also a possibility. Maybe they do consider him at shortstop. Some of that is still out there. I know they have to kind of figure that in the off season. He's probably a third basement. I'm just saying it's not out of the realm of possibility. But the bat is a leap stop now. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:22 You have you got a depth chart? You get that other guy's name that's still in there wrongfully at this point. But, you know, they could make that move. That doesn't really necessarily adjust like the fantasy. concern that we have. What we care is, will he be in a spot where he is going to be given the best run and RBI opportunity? And I think that's the case. You love him to steal more bases, but this is a four category player who has shown off incredible, incredible bat to ball skills. And he's the guy that you bank on because he should break camp. And, you know, Guardians fans, people forget about
Starting point is 00:05:55 this because he's so young, but Junior Caminario was a guardian. He came up and he got traded. So I know it boils. It's going to feel very Fernando Tatis Jr. Esk of Guardians fans not being able to joy him, but Ray's fans will. Yeah. And just a quick note on his defensive positions played last year, Camerro, three games at third base with the raise, two at shortstop, one at second base. So to your point, might be able to move him around a little bit. Scott, I know you like him quite a bit. We spoke about that the other day,
Starting point is 00:06:23 currently ranked as your 12th third baseman heading into next season. Again, that's for redraft leagues. The number two, third base prospect is... I don't get to talk about Cominero at all. Oh, well, you talked about it the other day, but go ahead. Well, I was actually going to say I find it hard to talk about Cominero because, like, he's so good. It's almost uninteresting. Like, you just have to stress how good he is. He hit 324 with 31 homers and 117 games. As mostly a 19-year-old, mostly at AA and was obviously reached the majors at the end. I think there are clear top four among the combined prospect rankings in some order.
Starting point is 00:07:06 I think Jackson Holiday is still number one. But Jackson Holiday, Wyatt Langford, who the Welsh mentioned, Junior Cominero and Jackson Chorio. You could rank those in more or less any order. They all have very high upside. Of the four of them, Cominero probably not going to help so much in the stolen base areas, as the Welsh already mentioned. I don't know. Maybe I'm just repeating everything. I mean, like you said, but it's an impressive. I mean, like you said, he hit 300 at both levels this past year.
Starting point is 00:07:36 Also, when he moved up, he hit over 300 against lefties and righties, short sample size against lefties, but he had like 470 against them. He hits a like plus plus hitter that I think you can really early on throw into a similar to like Evan Carter, like in how Evan Carter was already thrust into hitting three for the Rangers. I'm not going to be surprised if Juniper Mannero is hitting somewhere between two and four for the raise as soon as he has a roster spot.
Starting point is 00:08:04 There's no guarantee, by the way, that he does break camp. We assume it is. No, but if he does, I think he will be in that prime spot. Yeah, and look, I would say the biggest testament to his upside is that the raise of all teams who slow play prospects as much as any organization had him make the leap from AA as a 20-year-old
Starting point is 00:08:26 in the thick of a playoff race. And like, as I was saying, when we did the third base preview, part of the reason I ranked Junior Calmanero 12th at third base already is because I presume he's going to break camp with the team. Like, I don't know, given the incentive structures in place since the new CBA took effect where teams can score draft picks if their top prospects place high enough in awards voting, for the first several years of his career.
Starting point is 00:08:57 But that only happens if he's on the roster for his entire rookie season, from opening day till the end of the season. So they already got his feet wet last year. It's high end of a prospect as Junior Cominero is. He'd be in the running for all those awards. And so they need to have him on opening day roster for it to happen.
Starting point is 00:09:19 One interesting note to add, Steamer does not have that projection. But I also am not sure that Steamer and all that has caught up to exactly what you said, because Steamer is only projecting around 120 played appearance, 126 to be exact over, oh, would that be 29 games projected for Camerro to play in a full season, which seems crazy to me,
Starting point is 00:09:42 and I think you laid outside of just what he did and who he is as a hitter and their needs. Talk about the extra incentives, who can't use another first round pick? The Orioles and the Diamondbacks are both going to be, having a huge benefit from that. I think every team needs to consider that. But I just wanted a point,
Starting point is 00:09:58 it is interesting if you look at steamer, early steamer projections. It does not tell that story. There you go, Frank. We spent an extra six minutes talking about Junior Cominero. We did it. We did it, bud. We were trying to wreck the show here.
Starting point is 00:10:11 I mean, he is a huge name. So if there is anyone we're going to do it for, it is Junior Camerero. There's this interesting tool on Fanggrass. If you look at steamer 600, that's basically just taking the projections and projecting them over 600 plate appearance. And if you do that for Caminero, it's a 266 batting average, 24 homers, 76 runs, 78 RBI, and 5 steals.
Starting point is 00:10:33 So just to give you a little perspective there. The number two prospect, number two third base prospect, is Noel V. Marte from the Cincinnati Reds. Just turned 22 years old in October. We know that he ended the season in Cincinnati. Played quite well, got 35 games in, hit 316, three homers, six steals, and 822 OPS. very manageable, 20% strikeout rate, hit the ball extremely hard. 91.3 average exit velocity, 115.6 max exit velocity. Lots to like here. Of those exit velocities. I know you love them, Scotty. Welles. We were talking
Starting point is 00:11:07 beforehand. You're a little more like, all right, you know, I've seen, I've seen the lows, I've seen some of the highs. Where are you at now with Nelvi Marte? Yeah, I would totally acknowledge like I have, and I've said this a gazillion times over, my previous biases sometimes drive the future, which is not a great thing with prospect stuff. Because, like, I saw the high-end Noelvi-Marte in the very beginning when he was a, it looked like a different human being.
Starting point is 00:11:33 With them, literally came stateside, he, you know, 180 pounds, 6-1, whatever it was. He was getting like Hammey Ramirez comparison. 100%. Oh, his short stuff. Then he started to grow and he started to grow. And then he became this big, bulking guy with huge power.
Starting point is 00:11:47 But then the swing got longer. And all of a sudden, he wasn't hitting quite at the same level. And that's stuck in my head. You know, 300 hit her down to 273. Then he hit 270 again. Then he got bigger. And everybody questioned, okay, the strikeouts, is he going to be able to keep stealing?
Starting point is 00:12:03 Well, as the body got up and he even went to the AFL, he struggled, he looked awful in the AFL. He had a couple really good hits, but he just made really bad decisions. A swing was super long. He was on top of stuff. He just looked lost at it. Then he just found, and there was this big prospect like thing in the Twitterverse, people making about like, like, oh, his weight and there's no way he can even be a prospect. There were a couple popular analysts that were just like really railing on the size.
Starting point is 00:12:29 And he just found a comfortability with it. He found how to adjust as a prospect. That bad speed, I think, got up a little bit more. He actually hit 279 for two straight seasons now. He struck, he lowered the strikeout rate, I think just a tiny bit. He still was stealing. The power numbers are there. I just, like, he's a power speed guy.
Starting point is 00:12:49 I think you can really like him. I love the big. hard hit stuff he had this past year. I'm just uncertain if he'll ever be more than a 260 hitter. Like those Caminero projections, I'm like, oh, that might just be Nueli with more stolen bases,
Starting point is 00:13:04 which is still a great player. So I just don't know if I have that old school, like, hey, people thought Nueli would be the number one overall prospect. I think he's capped a little bit. Defense is okay. Like he kind of fell off from being a shortstop,
Starting point is 00:13:18 moving over to third base. I think the swing can get long. I don't think he's going to hit for super high average. But you know what? If he became Manny Machado, I guess I really wouldn't be surprised. But maybe it would be like the current-ish version of Machado
Starting point is 00:13:31 from a 260 to 270 hitter hitting in the middle of the order. And that's really good. Well, maybe the tone you strike with Noel V. Marte is somewhat influenced by what your starting point is with him. Because I was, you know, I was, I heard a lot of the negative takes on, on Noel V. Marte from the past couple years and was kind of buying into him.
Starting point is 00:13:53 I was really cooling on him as a prospect and putting him lower in my prospect rankings than I think the consensus had him. But then when he came to the majors and put up those ridiculous exit velocities, like rare exit velocities for a 22-year-old, didn't it translate to much power? At first, he had a 61% ground ball rate
Starting point is 00:14:14 through September 4th. From September 5th on, he hit all three of his home runs, had a 47% ground ball rate, which is still high, but a lot better than 61%. And so he hit those three home runs over the final three weeks of the season, tapping into those exit velocities. And for the entire time he was up,
Starting point is 00:14:34 Nelvi-Marte stole six bases, which, you know, we're talking, I say entire time he was up, basically a month and a half, six stolen bases. So that translates to like a 25 steel pace. 91st percentile is the sprint speed for Nuelve-Marte. So that, he proved he's not. not only fast enough to steal bases, but there's a willingness there to do it too.
Starting point is 00:14:57 And so with those exit velocities, if you can continue to keep that ground ball rate in a tolerable range in Cincinnati where the power is going to play up, I think there's massive power speed potential here. And wherever the batting average ends up, it ends up. I'm not even so much worried about that, given what I think Noel V. Marte can do
Starting point is 00:15:20 in terms of power and speed. and I'm very high on them right now. I'm probably higher on them right now than I've ever been. Just from a redraft perspective, the early ADP on Nelvie Marte, 156.7. So there is some enthusiasm at that point in the draft. Probably your corner infielder, but maybe you wait a little bit and he winds up being your starting third basement. The number three and four third base prospects,
Starting point is 00:15:43 I'm going to put these two together here. We have Colt Keith of the Tigers, 22 years old. Kobe Mayo of the Orioles, who turns 22 in December. Great seasons for both of these gentlemen. Colt Keith hit 27 home runs, over 300 with the Tigers. 932 OPS. He got 67 games in at AAA.
Starting point is 00:16:04 He hit lefties well too. I thought that was really interesting from his minor league data. Kobe Mayo, we're talking beforehand. This guy crushes the ball. I mean, he hit 29 home runs, 91.7 average exit velocity, 112 max EV at AAA. So the power absolutely looks amazing.
Starting point is 00:16:22 Well, it's two questions on these guys. Colt Keith, how realistic is opening day with the Tigers? And for Kobe Mayo, where does he play? I feel like that's the question for every Orioles prospect. Well, with Kobe Mayo, great question. I don't 100% know. I think you want to get that bat in the lineup as soon as possible. One of the things we were talking about, I mean, from a leaderboard perspective,
Starting point is 00:16:43 he was all over. This is, to credit I'm looking over on Prospects Live, 112 max EV. This right here, 95th percentile exit velocity was 109, almost a 92 average exit velocity, an almost 10 percent barrel rate, which you love to see.
Starting point is 00:17:00 I mean, these are all just like, hey, these are fun things, I'm telling you. He is such a good hitter. He walked like 90 times this year. He had a 400 OBP with big strikeout numbers, though, I would point out.
Starting point is 00:17:11 This is a huge, hulking, mashing power hitter that I just don't know they're going to care. But to your point, they've got, Kirstead and they got Connor Norby that's waiting to pop up.
Starting point is 00:17:23 Connor Norby, by the way, I think was in like the top 15 or he might have been at the tippy top of doubles hit in the minor leagues this year, as well as Kobe Mayo with the big power number. So I love Kobe Mayo.
Starting point is 00:17:35 I'm battling between wanting to move these two, but I want to point out, we're still in the top 20 of my overall prospects because Colt Keith is another one of those. Bad defensively saw him a couple years ago in the AFL, but the bat was love. He was actually the very last home run I got two years ago in the Arizona Fall League with this really beautiful easy swing. He then proceeded to take that to this 2023 season where he hit 27 homers.
Starting point is 00:17:59 He hit 300, which was huge. And when he got moved up to AAA, still hit 287 off of 325 and AA. All of this fun thing to say, this guy is an immense middle of the order hitter with great, great power, maybe a little bit of stolen bases in there. and I do think it's set up for him. You know, they moved Candelario at the trade deadline. I think they have got some potential space for him, wherever they end up wanting to put him in the lineup.
Starting point is 00:18:27 I wouldn't be shocked if this is, if Colt Keith is the Tiger's version of trying to acquire extra draft picks, which they should be doing and putting him in the lineup from day one, because what are you missing? I don't know if that's the case with Mayo because, by the way, I mentioned Norby and him, and we didn't even mention Jackson Holiday. So it might be a consolidation.
Starting point is 00:18:46 factor for the Orioles. I think the Orioles in the free agency should be aggressive with one of these pitchers. And I think they should be aggressive by moving some of these prospects and trading maybe for another pitcher or maybe a big power bat of something. And I bet Mayo is not a part of it, by the way. I bet you Holiday and Mayo or not. Kerstead, open for business. Connor Norby, open for business, Jordan Westberg, Colton Kouser, all of them open for business. Mayo, Holiday, I bet not. And that's how you get them in here. Those are two guys to bet on in Dynasty for sure. I was expecting in the second half, or late in the season, late August, when the late rash of prospects happened, the kind of get your feet wet class in preparation for having an opening day job next year. I was kind of surprised Colt Keith wasn't among them.
Starting point is 00:19:33 I kept having him in my five prospects to stash in the weekly prospects report. And it just never happened. And so that makes me a little less than 50% on him making the opening day Ross. for the Tigers, though, of course. I mean, we didn't see Jordan Walker and Anthony Volpe late in 2022, and they still made the opening day roster for their respective team. So it's not impossible.
Starting point is 00:19:58 But I'm betting against it. And yeah, I think there's no chance with Kobe Mayo just because the Orioles have so many mouths to feed already. There's not a lot of rationale to rush him. And I think Jackson Holiday is going to have a leg up on winning an opening day roster spot anyway. I think I'm happy with how you have them ranked here, Keith over Mayo. Between the two, I think Keith is the only one who has a chance of hitting for average in the majors.
Starting point is 00:20:27 Not that he for sure will, but I think it's, he gives the strikeouts under control better. I believe he is more all fields with his approach. Yeah, he goes the opposite way more often than Kobe Mayo does. Kobe Mayo is just like a pure mash, or it gets on base a good at me. Now, it gets on base, walks more than Colt Keith does. So if you're talking points league perspective, maybe you could justify Mayo over Colt Keith. But for five by five scoring,
Starting point is 00:20:54 I'm going to say Colt Keith than Kobe Mayo. And interesting thing to add just real quick, both of their double A numbers, Mayo had pretty big righty-lefty splits where Mayo hit over 300 against righties, hit only 230 against lefties. Colt Keith, I believe, I just looked at it, and I just went away from it, was over 300 on both of those.
Starting point is 00:21:14 So he was a very high quality lefty, righty hitter, and we've seen that time in and timeout. I just point out, I thought he stunk at third base when he played in the AFL, and I'd probably have to dig in right now to see how much was that justified by looking at his fielding numbers. But I think that may have played a role in it as well. It looks like I guess he only had at third base five errors this past year. So maybe there was something still to work on,
Starting point is 00:21:39 but I'm not sure Matt Veerling keeps Colt Keith off the roster, especially when it could net use. a potential pick. Right. And I know he's played some second base in the miners too, so maybe that's an option. Down the line,
Starting point is 00:21:50 my guess is they'll probably try him at third base first. Again, that is Colt Keith. I do agree with your take Welsh on the Orioles should probably try to consolidate, right? Because, I mean, hasn't their owner already come out and said,
Starting point is 00:22:02 there's no way we'll be able to afford all these guys. So he's already kind of like tipping his hand that he's not going to extend all these players. They're not going to be around forever. You might as well kind of cash in on some of them, maybe like a Dylan Seas or a Corbin-Burns trade,
Starting point is 00:22:13 whatever it might be. But I think it's possible. They obviously have the assets to get that done. Let's take our first break when we return more third-based prospects right after this. Welcome back in, and let's jump right back into the top third-based prospects. Just to recap the top four, according to the Welsh, we have Junior Camerro, Noel V. Marte, Colt Keith, and Kobe Mayo.
Starting point is 00:22:34 The next two on the list. Number five, Brady House with the Washington Nationals, 20 years old, and originally drafted as a shortstop. If you remember back in 2021, there was that quartet, which featured Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawler, Khalil Watson, and Brady House. Since then, Brady House has been moved to third base. Makes sense. I mean, he is a big hulking human being, 6'4, 215 pounds.
Starting point is 00:22:58 Speaking of big hulking human beings, the number six third base prospect is a gentleman named Brock Wilkin, who was drafted by the Brewers this year. He was their first round pick 18th overall, 6'4, 220. 25 pounds. He got 47 games in, including six at AA. He hit 285, 8 doubles, four triples, five homers, four steals, 887 OPS. I mean, that guy did it all. Welsh, I think there's a lot to like for both of these guys. But the main question, who do you think has more power? Who projects for more power long term, Brady House or Brock Wilkin? I'm going to go with Brock Wilkin.
Starting point is 00:23:38 So I was able to just pull these up here. I love me some Brock. Wilkin. Brock Wilkin was at Wake Forest was in the college world series. If we, if you remember seeing him, he's got this interesting stance that kind of like gets intertwined in here. These are, these are the college numbers, by the way, because I talked a decent amount about him when, uh, when he was getting drafted. If, yeah, here we go. So here were his call, some of the college, uh, analytics on him. He had of all the like first round guys, We're talking Dylan Cruz, Wyatt Langford,
Starting point is 00:24:12 all of them. Biggest power numbers. MaxEV hit 119. I remember metal bats, but 119 MaxEV, which was the second or the third highest of any of the college bats that I have info on.
Starting point is 00:24:26 How much does aluminum bats, well, metal bats? Is it still aluminum? How much does it that help exit velocity? It's a great question. I feel like I had this conversation with Joe Doyle, and I want to say it was, we might have settled on like five miles per hour,
Starting point is 00:24:41 but don't quote me. Get mad at me if that's an incorrect number. But it was one- 114. If we drop at five, 114 is still- Pretty ridiculous. He had a 108-90th percentile exit velocity, a 94 average exit velocity.
Starting point is 00:24:59 And here's the thing that you pair with all of it. Oh, by the way, 89% contact percentage on 92 plus, but here was my favorite of all of them. of every bat. I got Cruz, Langford, Matt Shaw, Tommy Troy. These are all the college guys that just went. The lowest chase rate of any of those players in college was Brock Wilkin. So bring this back to what did he do this year where he got drafted. It went three levels, also played in instructs. He was able to hit 285, walked 33 times in 47 games, had a 400 OBP, five homers, eight doubles. If I can do a quick map, that's 17 of his 47 hits in 47 games were extra base.
Starting point is 00:25:38 He's a huge big power guy that hit AA. I like him quite a bit. He's a first year player target for me. I don't mean to make this all about him and not Brady House because Brady House improved his batting average at every level this year is still learning to develop the power because this has been a high average guy. He stole nine bases, which was eight more than he had ever stole. He only stole one base between the pre-year.
Starting point is 00:26:02 previous two years. Strikeout numbers are nothing crazy, but he's a high batting average big power guy. These are both great bets and people aren't as, to be honestly, Brady House might be the best bet of all of them, the cheapest in Dynasty. But Brock Wilkin is a first year player target for all the reasons I talked about huge power with not bad chase rates and a very advanced hitter. And Brady House is actually kind of similar with a better defensive profile being a shortstop that's going to be able to keep him on the field. So these are both really great third base targets. All right, let's have to think with that batting eye, though, if it's a if it's a points league or if it's like a Sim league, Brock Wilkin would make sense over Brady House.
Starting point is 00:26:42 Yes. Yeah. And I might go Wilkin. As time goes on a little bit, I would like, I mean, he actually played in Instructs and I don't think he wanted to be here. He was the only college hitter in Arizona in Instructs. And I think there was kind of a why is he here doing it? I think the team wanted to get him more at bats and more looks because I think they're going to push him this coming. year and they're kind of a little bit, they might be on a rebuild very soon. I think he will be a
Starting point is 00:27:05 very, very important part of it. And he easily can rocket up ranks and this positional rank. Just a sneak peek, Welsh. Where do you have Brock Wilkin in your first year player draft rankings? I have him currently at nine right now, nine overall. All right. Let's move over to number seven and eight in the third base prospects. We have Graham Pauley at number seven from the Padres. He just turned 23 years old in September. This season in the minors hit 308, 23 homers, 22 steals, 931 OPS. Definitely a little bit older for the levels he played at. You know, it was across three levels.
Starting point is 00:27:40 He only got 20 games in at AA. So, you know, mostly a 22-year-old turning 23 at AA. You know, it's a little bit older there. Number eight is Yvonne Melendez, who we might have spoke about him on the first base podcast, but he will have third base eligibility on CBS. He played most of his games at third base. year in the minors. Scott, I know you've liked Melendez a lot.
Starting point is 00:28:03 I believe you have him in the Scott White Dynasty League. There's massive power here, 30 homers, tons of strikeouts. We're talking about. I haven't met a couple of dynasty leagues, yeah. 34% strikeout rate in the miners last year, 29% strikeout rate in the AFL. There's no doubt that there's power, but it won't matter if he can't make contact.
Starting point is 00:28:23 No, it won't. And I historically have been very down on strikeout guys. Yvonne Melendez certainly fits the bill there. But the power might be enough to overcome it. And it just doesn't, it doesn't seem like he is, we talk about him on this podcast a fair amount, but it doesn't seem like he gets,
Starting point is 00:28:49 for the caliber of player he was in college, it doesn't seem like he gets a lot of pub in prospect circles. I think a strikeout rate probably has something to do with it but also the fact
Starting point is 00:29:03 that he is most likely going to wind up at first base, a right-handed hitting first baseman and that kind of prospect has to threat a needle to become a full-time player
Starting point is 00:29:16 in the majors. But I think that can lead to discounts in fantasy because, I mean, there was a point in time when Pete Alonzo was getting dinged for the same thing. And obviously he's turned out to be a stud in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:29:33 And I've actually seen comparisons made to Melendez, that same comparison to Pete Alonso. Now, he's going to have to improve the strikeout rate a lot to get up to Petalanzo level. But Petalanzo's, more are Petalanzo's strikeout rates in the minors. I think they were pretty high. I feel like they weren't this high, actually. I'm going to take a guess they were under 25%.
Starting point is 00:29:54 you're right they were okay okay um but just the fact that he's a slugging first baseman who bats right-handed like if he can find a path to every day at bats in the majors which is you know obviously contingent on him overcoming the strike out rate then uh i think melendez could be a real find in dynasty leagues so that's why i've invested in him as much as i have because you know he's basically free in these dynasty leagues of mine. All right. Welsh, I know you had the chance
Starting point is 00:30:27 to watch both of these gentlemen out in the Arizona Fall League. Again, Grand Polly of the Padres and Yvonne Melendez of the D-backs. I feel like for Polly, he doesn't have like a standout tool or at least based on what I've read or looked at,
Starting point is 00:30:40 but he's kind of like this jack of all trades can kind of do a little bit of everything kind of player. What are your thoughts on those two? Yeah, I think it's well said. I think he played first, third, and corner outfield out here. I think like the first time, again,
Starting point is 00:30:52 I could be corrected, but I think he played like a couple games, maybe in left field or whatever. But yeah, first, third. I don't think he's a great batting average guy. The first week, he showed out in the NFL. And I was like, oh, my God, he's amazing. You know, 20 stolen bases, 20 homers. I think there's a much bigger hole in his swing.
Starting point is 00:31:11 He chases at like a lot of off speed stuff low. And that's something you're going to have to continuously work on. But he does have 2020 upside. I think it's going to be trouble to get to the 20, simply because of batting average woes. I wouldn't be, there's two things. You know, the, isn't the Machado injury, isn't that going to linger in or the surgery?
Starting point is 00:31:31 Isn't that going to linger into the start of the season? I, isn't that right? Dispute over that. I think Frank leans toward yes, I lean toward. The timetable given was four to six months. So if it's closer to four, no, if it's closer to six. I just wonder maybe if they were looking at, maybe Graham Polly is somebody that could help them out a little bit as a bench bat.
Starting point is 00:31:50 Not saying it's going to happen. That would be an aggressive push. The other thing is, might be great trade bait. But for what he does, he covers a lot of areas in fantasy where, man, I want to love Melendez. You know, oh, Welch's a Homer Diamondbacks. I just, I hated all of it. I just didn't like how he looked at all. The power numbers are absurd.
Starting point is 00:32:08 But the same thing happened to me with Abamelik Ortiz. They look slow. Both of these guys, Melendez specifically looked like all he needed to do and all he was trying to do was just find the fastball mistake to beat. And I saw Pete Alonzo in the A.F. NFL destroy mistakes. I did not see Ivan Melendez destroy mistakes. He did play decent offensively. I think Melendez is going to really struggle with batting average. I think both of these players are going to struggle with batting average. It's a beautiful lefty swing with Grand Polly. I think Melendez can hit more homers, but Polly can steal. That's kind of the differentiating
Starting point is 00:32:40 factor. But I am down-ish a bit. They're both still top 100 prospects, though. So I just want to caveat. Do you think they're going to be for everybody? Because part of, I'm pretty, I'm pretty invested in Grand Polly too in these dynasty leagues and I will reiterate to those who didn't catch it before all my dynasty leagues are 24 teams so I'm getting about as deep as it gets into the dynasty player pool
Starting point is 00:33:06 with the 24 team leagues Melendez and Graham Polly both were players I was scooping up midseason for free basically like they just they did not have any traction even in a dynasty league Polly specifically by the way like I'm has had name value attached to him.
Starting point is 00:33:24 There really wasn't that out there with Polly. So I want to point out that that's kind of an important factor. But at the end of the day, I also think Polly's going to be able to hit. He hit over 300 this year. I saw some big woes, but I think he can overcome him, by the way, in,
Starting point is 00:33:39 what was this? This was in Lake Elsinore, I believe. Lake Elsinore. They got around 90 games of it. He hit 290 against Ritees and over 300 against lefties. I mean, That's really impressive.
Starting point is 00:33:52 That's an impressive hit tool. You won't see with Melendez. Melendez is he is going to strike out a ton. It's going to be, can he help defensive? By the way, I said that about Grand Pauly. Melinda's playing at third kind of screams at you too
Starting point is 00:34:05 about the Diamondbacks having a hole at third base with Longoria leaving, that they might be, hey, what do we have here? Or creating trade flexibility or flexibility for a trade in the near future, which I think the Diamondbacks like the Orioles need to consolidate as well. All right. The number nine third base,
Starting point is 00:34:21 prospect is Justin Henry Maloy of the Tigers. He turns 24 years old in February and upon studying his minor league page, he's from New York. So you know I'm rooting for the guy. This season in the minors, he hit 277 with a 417 on base percentage, 23 homers, 891 OPS, all of his games in AAA. Scott, I remember towards the end of the season, we would be doing the prospect report, you know, five players to watch, five players on the periphery. And oftentimes we wound up mentioning Justin Henry Malloy, formerly of your Atlanta Braves. He's older. I think the Tigers are kind of going through this youth movement right now. So I think that we see him up very soon, maybe even opening day with the Tigers.
Starting point is 00:35:03 Yeah, and his future is likely in the outfield, especially if Colt Keith settles in a third base. So keep that in mind. In fact, no, he played mostly third base in the minors last year, but played a fair amount outfield too. Yeah, the 110 walks. You mentioned the on-base percentage, 110 walks and 135 games. And he had 97 walks in the Braves organization in 2022. So this is his standout tool. And it's a very valuable tool in real life, not so much in Roto play,
Starting point is 00:35:39 but in other fantasy formats. It's a good tool there too. It's going to require just for him to be a fantasy asset, asset, it's going to require Justin Henry Malloy to maximize a modest power tool, which he's done so far in the miners. 23 home runs this past year, 17, again in the Bray's organization the year before. He has shown a capability to play beyond the data, to perform beyond the data. So maybe there is a possible, I don't know, Marcus Simeon without the speed kind of outcome here.
Starting point is 00:36:17 for Justin Henry Malloy. It's going to be tough to accomplish that in Detroit, but not outside the realm of possibility. I would say Justin Henry Malloy, if it's a 5-5 roto dynasty league, I'm not sure he's worth the trouble, but if it's another scoring format that does reward the walks, maybe it is.
Starting point is 00:36:39 Yeah, and it's especially tough for right-handed hitters in Camerica. You know, it's a little bit more forgiving for lefties, but as we've seen with Torkelson, if you look at the expected home runs by ballpark, you put them anywhere else, and that number jumps by like five to ten home runs. So it's just tough to hit home runs as a right-handed hitter in Detroit.
Starting point is 00:36:59 So keep that in mind with Justin Henry Malloy. The last name on the list, number 10 third base prospect is Brian Ramos of the White Sox. He is a 21-year-old out of Cuba, and this past season hit 264 with 15 home runs in 808 OPS across 81 games, 77 of those coming at AA. Solid plate discipline here. Welsh, I know you had the chance to see him out in the AFL. And, you know, we're talking a little bit offline.
Starting point is 00:37:23 You know, there's some people out there that like him quite a bit. So what are you seeing from Brian Ramos? What's the upside with him? I don't remember if you were with me or not, but there was someone or two that said they liked Ramos more than Colson Montgomery. That that was, I do feel that was pretty heavily influenced in like what was happening like right there. because Colts of Montgomery was very swing-happy. And Ramos is just really consistent. And, you know, Ramos ended up missing a significant amount of time.
Starting point is 00:37:51 This year only played 80 games, still hit 15 homers. You know, you project that out. He's at least a 25-plus homer guy. Very clutch, a little bit of stolen base potential. Wouldn't be surprised if he got to 10. He's not overtly big, but he is also one of those guys that's going to put up big EV numbers. We don't have them here.
Starting point is 00:38:08 I probably should go and dig in in the AFL side because there might be some at Salt River. but this is one of those guys that's going to put up those 113, 114, big pull EV numbers. And I think he's 25 plus at the position. He's hit 260, I believe two straight years. The strikeouts don't look like they're fully, fully cutting down, but we're getting into that space. He just made better decisions as he gets older. I think this is one of those guys where his ability hit the ball really hard might work a little bit in his favor, you know, to pad the stats a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:38:41 So I think Ramos is 25 plus potential. I'm worried about the batting average overall. That's why he's not higher. But opportunity might come sooner rather than later. Again, another team that's kind of in a rebuild mode. And I think they want to push. I wouldn't be, I think Colson Montgomery and Brian Ramos, I think also very much enjoy they have worked together and working together.
Starting point is 00:39:00 I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those situations where the team also brings them up relatively at the same time. So Ramos is a good bet at third base here. I think he's actually kind of a safe, cheap, cheap, bet, you know, Scott's talking about, oh, hey, these guys, you know, and the Melendez is and the Grand Polly's. Like, I think Ramos sits in this same general vicinity where it's like, I would make the bet.
Starting point is 00:39:23 He's right outside my top 100. Some might have him in there. If he's free, take a look at him because he's knocking on the door of the majors. I don't have much to say about Brian Ramos, but I did want to mention a couple of name curiosities for Justin Henry Malloy, if this is the first time you're hearing of him. the guy we just talked about. So the hyphenated name there is the first name, Justin Henry. The last name is just Malloy.
Starting point is 00:39:49 So that's interesting. Also, Justin is spelled J-U-S-T-Y-N. So if you're looking up Justin Malloy and you're getting frustrated because his name's not coming up, just type in Malloy and then you'll scroll through and find Justin hyphen Henry as the first name. All right, just to recap the top 10 prospects, top 10 third base prospects from the Welsh Junior Camerro with the Rays, Noel V. Marte with the Reds, Colt Keith with the Tigers,
Starting point is 00:40:16 Kobe Mayo with the Orioles, Brady House with the Nationals, Brock Wilkin with the Brewers, Graham Pauly with the Padres, Yvonne Melendez with the DeBacks, Justin Henry Malloy with the Tigers, and Brian Ramos with the White Sox. If you are looking for names
Starting point is 00:40:31 that will help you sooner rather than later, names to know for redraft leagues, maybe you're doing some of these way too early draft and hold over at the NFBC, whatever it might be. Top proximity guys. Junior Caminero, Noel V. Marte, Colt Keith, Kobe Mayo, you know, maybe not the first month or two of the season, but I think we do see Kobe Mayo at some point next year. And then the aforementioned Justin Henry Maloy. Let's take our final break when we return. Got some quick news and notes to go over and then we'll wrap up with some
Starting point is 00:41:02 trade targets and some AFL awards here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in the news and notes. Already mentioned the Sayyung Award winners. Again, congratulations to Blake Snell and Garrett Cole. The Manager of the Year Award was also handed out. And we had Brandon Hyde in the American League and Skip Schumacher in the National League. So congrats to those guys. Vinny Pasquantino, the Pasquatch, as he's known as now.
Starting point is 00:41:28 I was actually watching an interview. He said he doesn't want to be known as like the Italian breakfast or Italian nightmare anymore because his mom doesn't like it. So that's the entire reason. So I guess we're going with the passquatch. Anyway, he was able to take full batting practice this week. As you remember, he had season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder.
Starting point is 00:41:51 And in that same interview, said should be 100% ready to go by the time spring training rolls around. The athletics, Evan Drellich reports that the A's relocation to Las Vegas is expected to be approved today when this podcast is released on Thursday, November 16th, which, look, it's a unfortunate situation, obviously, for all the fans out there in Oakland. And a lot of the stuff I've read is, like, people in Vegas don't even want the Oakland A's there. So I don't know what's going on.
Starting point is 00:42:21 It's just a very weird situation all around. Is it going to be a problem if they're still the A's? Like, don't you think Vegas doesn't want the A's? They want their own thing. Don't you think they need to rebrand it? That's exactly what I've read and heard is that, like, people who live in Vegas, they want their own team. They want like a brand new franchise, right? They want something to call their own.
Starting point is 00:42:41 Not like, oh, the Raiders went to Las Vegas. Most of the people that go to watch the games are like the visiting teams fans. I have a feeling the same thing might happen if it's like the Las Vegas A's or whatever. There's also like a, there's very brand with the Raiders. It had a life of its own. Unfortunately, the A's don't. This is coming from, I grew up in the Bay Area. My family were all A's fans.
Starting point is 00:43:03 My beloved grandfather passed away 10 years ago. We shared A's all of that stuff. the A's have no real brand like the Raiders do going anywhere else. And then also like Vegas, they already had like a minor league team, the Reno Aces. I know people would be like change it to the Aces. They,
Starting point is 00:43:18 I don't know, they just need it. I feel like they need an identity and baseball needs to embrace nixing the A's out and giving them an identity. Otherwise, you're just going to go and go to face wherever you know, but this is a,
Starting point is 00:43:29 this is one of the historic franchises. I agree, but Oakland doesn't want them. It's a stop, right? What do you do? Nobody wants them. I mean, green and yellow color scheme.
Starting point is 00:43:38 So novel. That's a word, yeah. Novel. It's right. I mean, I don't know. I don't mind the color scheme. I actually have an old yellow alternate Oakland A's jersey. Mark McGuire.
Starting point is 00:43:54 The athletics. Like, they're the athletics, but most people just call them the A's. That's... The New York Times should buy them. I don't know. Like, it's... I don't, I'm...
Starting point is 00:44:05 Like, again, I am... have the most connection to the A's over you guys. I literally grew up in the Bay Area and with them. And I think about the A's in Vegas. And if I lived in Vegas, I don't know, they're gross. Like the jerseys are gross. The team stinks. Nobody liked them there. They have, they have nothing to carry over the last like 15 years. You know what they're a mask hat with the yellow brim? No, it's Brad Pitt. It's the most iconic A's person is Brad Pitt. It's an actor. That's not true. The Bash brothers. I mean, I think he did say 15 years, right?
Starting point is 00:44:40 I mean, you're dating yourself a little bit, Scott. I think of Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill is what I think of right now. And again, like, I love Mark. I met Mark McGuire. There's like a huge thing. I met McGuire like three months ago in the Complex League out here and stuff like that. I didn't even think about the A's. I don't agree with this take of eliminating the A's as a,
Starting point is 00:45:02 as the name and identity of a franchise. Vegas will come around. they'll come around I do want to refer back to the Vinnie Pasquantino thing because there was a time not so long ago where if the mother chimed in on a player's nickname
Starting point is 00:45:20 that would only perpetuate the nick like that would create more taunting and teasing within the clubhouse than not right like that would that would if anything that would just like codify it, you know?
Starting point is 00:45:41 That was when the A's were great though, Scott. Just a new era. I love you guys going back and forth on this. This is great. The latest hot stove rumors, by the way, I did get an update on my phone not too long ago. This comes from Jeff Passing. Shohei Otani has, quote,
Starting point is 00:45:55 expressed affinity for the Dodgers, the Rangers, and the Red Sox for whatever is that words. Maybe the biggest free agent in baseball history. So obviously we'll be following that along all off season. John Heyman believes the Padres, Giants, Padres, and Phillies are all interested in Blake Snell. And according to John Marosi, the Dodgers are showing strong interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Lastly, very sad news as the Padres chairman and owner, Peter Seidler passed away on Tuesday. Everything I've read and heard in recent days about him is that he was a great owner, he was an even better human being.
Starting point is 00:46:34 Our thoughts and prayers obviously go out to the Seidler for. family and the Padres organization. Let's move over to some dynasty trade targets, specifically at third base. And Scott, we will start with you. I normally ask you for like one or two, but you probably have like five. So where do you want to go? I have three of each. I'm seeing here, the Welsh has one of my buys.
Starting point is 00:46:54 I'll just mention it, Manny Machado. And he can talk about Manny Machado as a by low in dynasty. Maybe I'll chime in more depending on what he says. I do kind of like Noel V. Marte has a buy low. because I think I think most people well I mean we kind of talked about it already I am higher on him now than I've been ever
Starting point is 00:47:17 but I don't know that the consensus is there I think the consensus is more skeptical than I am and so I think it's I think it's an opportunity to you know get him before he hits big it's not like he's not a highly rated prospect but it's one
Starting point is 00:47:33 who I don't know It's not like he's Junior Commonero or anything, and he might end up being early round material and fantasy for years to come, particularly if that speed continues to translate. So to some degree, I think Noelvi-Marte is a by-low. The ultimate by-low at third base, though, in Dynasty, though, I think is Brett. Beatty. Ooh.
Starting point is 00:47:55 Well, I still think has a very bright future. It's the ball hard. Good plate discipline. The Mets stick with him. then I think he will eventually come around. I know it didn't work out last year. I remain hopeful in the long term for Brett Beatty. All right, Scott.
Starting point is 00:48:13 Well, I hope you're wrong because I traded Brett Beatty away in the Scott White Dynasty League. So it would hurt pretty badly if he turned out to be a stud. But it's obviously still possible. Welsh, you're by Mani Machado. Yes, Mani Machado. So I am currently doing a dynasty draft mock with the Toolshed Boys.
Starting point is 00:48:31 and Manny Machado fell to the end of the fifth round. And Machado went after Dynasty. I don't know. You guys will be like clearly these guys should go above. But Jazz went before. Bellinger went before. Josh Lowe went before. And I've got some question marks about like many Matro.
Starting point is 00:48:51 Not Beliger. What's that? I definitely want to take Bellinger ahead of Machado and Dynasty. I think all those are kind of a question. Yeah, they're all a question. but definitely not. To different degrees. Yeah, definitely not Bellinger.
Starting point is 00:49:06 I really want to get into this. I really like Royce Lewis. So I think you're a lot closer when you kind of debate like a Machado versus Royce Lewis. But Machado went like aggressively lower. And, you know, just a couple of things I'd cite. The batting average sunk this year, 258, was 40 points lower than the previous year. And it was the lowest since 2017. His Babbitt ran low, 268, which was 30 points lower than his average.
Starting point is 00:49:30 and 70 points lower than last year, lowest since 2017. Yet he still hit 30 homers, had a sub 20% K rate, 91 RBIs and 138 games, and projections, if you care, have him beating every single one of his counting stat categories. So really what it is is it's like you're getting bottom barrel.
Starting point is 00:49:52 The lowest value you would have had a mani Machado in the last five or six years exists right now. He had what is arguably the most standout, bad year under the hood, which again, like I said, it's like lowest Babib sense, lowest average sense. All of those things plus projections working in favor, I think it's a great buy opportunity right now. He's 31 years old. If you're like me and you care about the two or three year window more, Manny Machado is a killer buy right now when his value is dropping into the fifth or six round.
Starting point is 00:50:19 Plus there's a little injury tag on him. I think he's like the ultimate like big value buy in Dynasty at this position where there are a lot of like younger baths that you like, Brett Beatty, like you said, that you hear. can get in on. But yeah, that's my Mani Machado self. Two quick points here on Machado. One is that he was still as productive as he was. The underlying numbers were still as good as they were with him playing with a bad elbow all season. So I think that puts it into perspective.
Starting point is 00:50:48 But really, I could just sum up the Mani Machado, why I retained so much interest in him, has others kind of back away. this is a early round mainstay who's still in the prime of his career. And so any fluctuation in the numbers, I think, needs to be, you need to look at it with a glass half full, just given that track record. All right. And also, we're close personal friends.
Starting point is 00:51:16 Just want to point out. For those. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, no, you go ahead. You go ahead and sell it. I'll just show it. I was just going to say for those who are listening right now,
Starting point is 00:51:26 You should check us out on YouTube because the Welsh is currently holding up a picture he took with Mani Machado. So another reason to buy in guys. That's the only reason, really, those are close personal friends. Absolutely. All right, Scott, let's go back to you. Let's make this a little quick. I want to quickly run through those AFL awards. Your dynasty cell candidates at third base.
Starting point is 00:51:48 All right. The yin to the yang here is Royce Lewis, who is in redraft leagues being ranked so far. going ahead of Manny Machado. And I just, 40th overall, 40th overall is Royce Lewis's ADP and Fantasy Pro's ADP. And I just have a hard time believing that he is going to
Starting point is 00:52:10 perform like a top 40 player. Like, that is what you should bet on going forward with Royce Lewis. Okay, he's going to be a top 40 player for years to come. Right now he is a top 40 player. That's what he's perceived at. But I feel like
Starting point is 00:52:23 if you sell on him as a top 40 player, it's hard to imagine that deal going wrong for you. Like, what's he going to be a top 12 player? I don't think Royce Lewis has that kind of upside. And of course, he has the injury history. So there's a good chance he doesn't even live up to top 40. So if you're taking advantage of what he's being evaluated as right now, then I don't see how this blows up for you trading away Royce Lewis at that value
Starting point is 00:52:50 because I think it's basically maxing out his value. It's kind of a roundabout way of saying it. But there it is. A couple others real quick, and I've talked about this before in the position previews. Aesak Perretti's Spencer Stier, I also kind of feel like they can't possibly be more productive than they've already been. And in Stier's case, there's also the logjam issue there in Cincinnati, where they just have more talented players they're bringing in than him. Does he get reduced to more of a utility role instead of being a true everyday player? in which case he would lose value in fantasy, obviously.
Starting point is 00:53:29 All right. And then Welsh, your cell candidate here. Have a feeling, Scotty might like this one a little bit. Oh, okay. Well, one thing I just wanted to add with Royce real quick, because I still do love him. If you care about the projections of third baseman projected for 10 or more stolen bases, there's only four with 20 or more projected homers,
Starting point is 00:53:48 Ellie Dele Cruz, Jose Ramirez, Gunner Henderson, and Royce Lewis. So that makes him very interesting. My cell is Josh Young. So kind of leaning on projections just to talk to you guys about it. Josh Young. Projections are fine, 28 homers, 80 runs, 90 RBIs, but hit 266. But Josh Young, a 29.3% K rate. He had 19 strikeouts in 65 playoff at bats to only three.
Starting point is 00:54:17 To only three walks would point out, only person with a worse playoff strikeout to walk rate was Evan Longoria, 21 strikeouts to two walks. He also finished in the bottom 23rd percentile in WIF, 24th percentile in Chase. Actually, kind of like Young is a general statement, but I just don't think he's elite. I also think this is a high, sell high time coming off of a World Series win, talking also about the Mani Machado's stuff. Josh Young went in the fourth round of that dynasty mock draft where Machado went in the fifth. So I do believe there's a path for an improvement. I actually looked at Austin Riley's like early numbers.
Starting point is 00:54:56 Just I think there might be like some similarities with them. There's some hard hit barrel similarities as far as like the minor league numbers go in the early first two years. And there's also some approach similarities. But you've got young who just has ridiculously stupid K rates with bad walk rate. So at the end of the day, I'm kind of wanting to lean off of that because I do think the stat line that he provides, is kind of replaceable. There's replaceable guys that you can do a lot of this with.
Starting point is 00:55:25 And if you can maximize where you're wanting to maximize off of Royce, if I can maximize Young to 90% of what you're doing, I just feel like I can easily replace it with older players and maybe just spend my time elsewhere and my dynasty assets elsewhere. And I guess you guys agree. Yeah, I mean, I thought about putting him as a, as a sell high, Josh Young. He's his ADP's 86th right now,
Starting point is 00:55:49 which is far too. different from 40th. I do like just in a vacuum Royce Lewis better than Josh Young. But I think it's less likely that Josh Young's value has peaked at 86th overall than that Royce Lewis is peaked at 40th overall, which is why I ultimately didn't include Josh Young as a sell high, though I certainly can envision a scenario where you do sell high on him. Again, I have Josh Young in the Scott White Dynasty League. So Welsh, I hope that you are completely wrong and that Josh Young turns into the next Austin Ryan. even better, and he's amazing this upcoming season.
Starting point is 00:56:23 Let's quickly wrap up. Just some Arizona Fall League awards that were handed out over the past week or so. The breakout player of the year is a name we haven't mentioned, Oliver Dunn, who is a second basement. I think he's kind of like a utility player. He was on the Phillies. Just in the past couple days, he was traded to the Brewers because he was exposed to the Rule 5 drafts, so we see kind of wacky trades this time of year.
Starting point is 00:56:47 He was also traded, by the way, for a player. on the Brewers who was in the AFL and these two were teammates. They both played on the surprise Suarez. So these were teammates that were literally swapped for each other. And didn't they wound up winning the AFL championship? They also won the championship. And Oliver Dunn
Starting point is 00:57:04 was, as you mentioned, breakout player was one of the best players. I text you and I were texting about him. I had mentioned him a couple of times. The problem is he's 26 years old. So he's kind of a non- prospect, but he did everything. He did a little bit of everything. He could run. He was hitting for some power. There were doubles. Good approach. As you should.
Starting point is 00:57:20 at that age, but he was kind of checking off boxes. I thought he could be a utility guy, but I told you, I was like, man, the Brewers got some potential open spots here. Maybe they're going to just take a swing at it and give him an opportunity. I don't think that's crazy. Maybe it's a super, super, like deep, uh, just throw for Oliver Dunn, who definitely shined out here, but he is 26. All right.
Starting point is 00:57:42 The offensive player of the year was our buddy James Triantos, who played all around the diamond prospect from the Cubs. And he hit 417 with. five triples, three homers, nine steals, 12 walks to 15 strikeouts. Haven't seen as much of that in his minor league numbers yet, but obviously we're hoping he can carry that over into 2024 and beyond. The pitcher of the year in the AFL was Ricky Teeteman, who was the top pitching prospect, arguably out there.
Starting point is 00:58:09 He is with the Toronto Blue Jays. He made four starts, had a 2.5 ERA, 11-whip, 23 strikeouts, over 18 innings pitched. The Blue Jays rotation seems pretty set for now. Obviously, crazy things happen, injuries, underperformance, all that stuff. Kevin Cosseman, Braxton, oh my gosh, I was about to say Braxton Berrios. I've got football brain. Jose Barrios, Chris Bassett, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alec Minoa. We have no idea with Alec Manoa.
Starting point is 00:58:39 Scott, I think there's a pretty good chance we see Ricky Teetam in in 2024. Do you agree? Oh, yeah. Yeah. In fact, of all these, the pitching prospects who have not yet debuted in the majors, Ricky Teetamond's my highest ranked for 2024. It's only about 100th overall, so it's not like you should be drafting them in every league. But if you're going to draft any pitching prospect who has yet to debut, I think Teetamon's the one.
Starting point is 00:59:07 The reliever of the year was Emiliano Tejoto from the Rangers. We talked about him quite a bit as well. 11 shutout innings, three hits, three walks, 19 strikeouts. and five saves. He turns 23 years old in February. Hasn't pitched above high A yet. So my guess is he starts in AA, maybe has a chance to join the Rangers
Starting point is 00:59:26 at some point later on in 2024. The MVP, best for last, of course. Jacob Marcy, outfield prospect with the Padres. He led the AFL in hits, runs, doubles, slugging percentage, wound up hitting 319, 391, excuse me, 12 doubles, five homers, 16 steals, 21 walks, to 25 strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:59:48 Welsh, I know you talked about Marcy quite a bit. He's 22 years old, only played 16 games at AA. So my guess is he probably starts there. Maybe there's a chance we see him late in 2024. Yeah, I mean, they might designate,
Starting point is 01:00:02 they might get Grisham off this roster. And if they make that trade, you never know what's going to be available for them. I think every Padres player is always available for a trade. But I think Marcy opened a lot of eyes. He does everything well. And as I pointed out, You know, some have questioned the power numbers.
Starting point is 01:00:18 We talked about this on a panel at first pitch about how, you know, he was pulling. Big pull numbers were in a friendly right field, but then when they moved a level, he started kind of just having more of a center field contact. That's also why he's such a smart hitter. He hits lefties. He does have that pull power. He knows how to take advantage of the field. He's a super fast runner and a really good defender.
Starting point is 01:00:40 This is a guy that can move. And I think he obviously opened eyes with MVP's. MVP's have had some decent track records. All of that aside, I was thoroughly impressed with him. I made him a top 100 prospect. Maybe that's going to end up being foolish. But I think he can kind of do everything. And I do think there's a shot we could see him this year.
Starting point is 01:00:58 All right. We're going to wrap there for the Welsh and Scotty. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in tough fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.

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