Fantasy Baseball Today - Tout Wars Draft Recap, NL-Only LABR Thoughts & More (3/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 9, 2023

Scott started his Tout Wars draft with a Padres stack (2:15)! ... Drafting a balanced team early allows for flexibility within the draft (8:55). ... Could Scott's team struggle with OBP (15:20)? ... How did Mike Gianella win this league (20:15)? ... News (28:01): Andrew Painter won't need elbow surgery. ... Let's take a look at Frank's NL-only LABR draft (34:00). What is the strategy in AL-only and NL-only leagues? ... Will Christian Encarnacion-Strand make the Reds (43:20)? ... Let's hit some deep sleepers with special guest Neil Shah (49:00). ... Neil has some bold predictions for the 2023 season (54:25). ... What is Masataka Yoshida's upside (1:00:10)?  Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Make sure to join our Fantasy Baseball Today March Madness bracket challenge here: https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2hazdeobwhayq====?pool-join-key=luc355rrnbhkblo9afv0ti95ozzbzg66&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhiytenztgq2dsojz&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF23_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, March 9th. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, got a loaded one for you.

Scott's Tout Wars Recast. That is a 15-team 5-5-Roto Industry League. We'll be recapping that. My-N-O-only Labor team. We're going to recap that one as well. 12-team salary cap slash auction. And then later on, we'll have players we haven't talked enough about

with a special guest here on the show. But guys, let's just jump right in because we have a lot to get to. Not a lot of time to do it. We'll start off with Scott's Toward's team. He was picking 15th overall. I've got the draft board pulled up for those watching us live on.

on YouTube. Yep, you can see Scott. You got a scroll left to right though, which is unfortunate. Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to be able to show all the picks, but people just want to see your team anyway, Scott, so that's all that matters.

Let's first preview what this draft is. It's an industry league. It's been around for a long, long time. It's one of the longest standing industry expert leagues out there. Tout Wars. 15 team mixed 5 by 5-5 roto with OBP instead of batting average.

Standard roto lineups, two catchers, one of each infield spot, middle infield corner infield five outfielders, one utility, and then nine pitcher spots with six reserves. Six reserves, Scott? I don't know if that's true. Five reserves. It is, yes, six reserves because it's 29 rounds. And if you happen to be viewing the video, I want to point out real quick, Jansen Junk shows up there as a pick made in round four. That's not actually Jansen Junk. That is a placeholder for.

the pitcher version of Otani because Taught Wars splits Otani into two players. Well, yesterday I teased that both you and Chris drafted Fernando Tatis in your respective Tautwurst teams. Scott, you're picking 15th overall, and you went with the Padre stack. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado at picks 15 and 16. Is that what you were hoping for? And do you plan to play Tatis at Outfield shortstop? What are you thinking? Oh, Outfield.

Because those were the positions I wanted to fill in rounds one and two, outfield and third base and I knew like third base was the most important of all because obviously

it's a high priority for me in every draft this year but especially a 15 team draft like this and especially one that uses

OBP instead of batting average because if it uses OBP instead of batting average then that pushes Alex Breggman and Max Muncie

up even more you're already inclined to reach for them after the studs third basement are gone, but especially in that format. And sure enough, Alex Bregman went in round three and Max Muncie in round six. So I probably wouldn't have been able to wrap my head around taking them at that point. It just would have happened.

I had the choice of picking anywhere from 8 to 15th. I figured if I picked 8th, my only hope for a stud shortstop was to reach for Nolan Aeronato, and I didn't want to reach for him that early. So I decided. Stud third basement, because you said shortstop. So I decided 15th, my own. So I decided 15th gave me the best chance of pairing, of getting one of those stud third basemen with my first two picks.

And I hoped Tatis was who I could pair him with so that I would have that stud outfielder still. Obviously, the seven that we talk about as surefire first rounders would have already been gone by that point. Mike Trout probably would have been gone by that point. And sure enough he was, since it's an OBP league. So Tatis was who I was hoping for to pair with any of those third baseman. I did go with Machado over Devers this time, in part just to diversify, the margin between them is so thin. But in part because it is an OBP league, Machado walks a little more. Devers' biggest advantage is batting average, kind of neutralizes that advantage.

Hopefully, Machado will give me some steals. And he's in a better lineup. So I went Machado and Tatis there. And that was kind of it for game planning for this draft. because as I've talked about, when you pick at the end, and especially when it's a league as big as this one, you can't anticipate too much what's going to make it back to you. I had to wait 28 picks before every pair of picks that I made.

And, you know, anytime, like even once we were already made it through those first 14 picks and we're on the way back, I'm looking at players like, okay, maybe this guy will get to me. Maybe this guy will get to me. I think one time the whole draft did the guy, I hope, would get back to me, actually make it to me. So I was kind of just taking whoever came to me and really not sticking to my, like obviously not sticking to the tiers approach

that I normally use when drafting because, again, you can't anticipate what's going to be there, and that's what the tier approach is. So it was really just about being comfortable with what's given to me, not reaching so much to fit a player into my prescribed plan. And I think I did a good job of that.

I think most of my picks ended up being relative values. The time I was most tempted to reach came early. So, okay, so my first two picks, as you pointed out, Fernando Tatis, Mani Machado, my third pick. Obviously, these third and fourth picks

were made back to back. Ozzie Albys, which I wasn't necessarily looking to go outfield third base. second base in this in this particular draft. All these values isn't as good in an OBP league. And in a deeper league like this, I don't know that you need to treat second base

like it's so scarce because it's a bottom heavy position. There's a lot of talent available later, is what I'm saying. But it, you know, I was hoping like Kyle Schwerber would make it to me in round three. He didn't. So I went all these because that just was the best player available, I thought. And then I thought about going Corbyn Carroll there

Because I really wanted to get that second outfielder And since it's an OBP word that pointed out the other day I'm starting to feel more optimistic about his on-base ability specifically It would have put me in a really good spot for stolen bases Really good spot for outfield But it would have been a pretty big reach As the 46th overall pick So instead I decided to play it safe with Shane McClanahan

and you know it's it's hard to say how much that would have changed my draft if I went Carroll there instead of McClanahan but with the draft being complete I can say that outfield is my most concerning position and maybe we could get into that more in a little bit but you know obviously I'm counting on Fernando Tatis there he's not going to be there for the first three weeks. And as things currently stand, I'm going to have to turn to the waiver wire for replacement. I was surprised that you wound up with Shane O'Mac with your pick here at your pick, the first pick of round four, which would have been 46, and you took him over Corby and Carol. And I think the way that the draft played out, the top pitchers available at your 5-6 turn

were Zach Gallen, Tristan McKenzie, Robbie Ray. I think it did good. I know typically you like to wait on starting pitcher, but man, to get Shane O'allon. Mac there at the 3-4 turn, just the way that all the pitchers started to go after that, I think you did a pretty good job with that, winding up with him there. Right. And it's worth saying 46 is probably around when Scott's taking his first pitcher. It's just because it's a 15-team league, that ends up being the first pick of the fourth round, where in the 12-team league, the first pick of the fourth round would be 37 overall.

I mean, lately I've been taking my first pitcher more like beyond the top 60. I've been pushing it back more and more and I hoped to do it in this draft too because the deeper the league is, the scarcer hitting is going to be and I think that is the between hitting and pitching. It's more important to fill hitting

in the early rounds and that becomes even more dire and the deeper the league is. So I'd hope to go at least four pitchers to start the draft, but again, I just had to take what was given to me. And with McLeanahan

still on the board, Carol, it just seemed like too big of a reach. Now, when it came back to me, Luis Robert was there. So I did get that second outfielder, one with health concerns, which also isn't great for my lack of outfield depth. But, you know, even in an OBP league,

you can't complain about Luis Robert's 75th overall. So I had a lot of picks like that where it's just like, all right, if everyone else is going to pass on them, I guess I'll take them. And so up and down the draft, I see a lot of value there just from a pure ADP perspective, you know. But did it all come together to create the most balanced, well-rounded team? Mostly, yes, like in terms of category distribution, I think it did. And what helped with that was that three of my first five picks were contributors in steals, Tatis, Albies, and Robbins.

So I didn't have to really stretch at any point to address that category scarcity. I had a lot in the bag early on. What also helped with it is I had the presence of mine. Following that Robert pick in round five, I paired him with Ryssela LaGlacius, first pick of round six, which is probably the earliest I've drafted a closer this year. But I knew, you know, one of my biggest problems in this league the past couple years is just being too cavalier about saves and then having to cycle through a bunch of junky pitchers

to help in that category. So as we've talked about in the relief pitcher preview and everything else, I want to get one of those nine that I feel really confident in them getting 30 plus saves and Iglesias is among that group. And sure enough, before it got back to me, as we're going through those 28 picks in round 6 and 7,

let's see, who all went? It was, hang on here. I got it right in my. I've got it up here. Okay, so Ryan Presley, Ryan Heldley, Felix Batista, Clay Holmes, and Camillo DeValle all went before I had another chance to pick. So I would have been in a bad situation at Closer if I hadn't taken Riceell, Glacias there with the first pick of round six. So it helped that I addressed those two most stressful categories early enough that that kind of put me in a position where I could continue to take what was given to me. me rather than having to reach to meet a specific need.

So in terms of category distribution, I think it worked out well. You know, if I went a little lighter on power than I like early, it helped that I was able to get Salvador Perez with at the end of round seven, I think it was the 105th overall pick. Yep. So, you know, he's going to give you a lot more home runs and especially RBI than the average catcher will. my second and third starting pitchers

were Nestor Cortez and Chris Sale which is in a league this deep not uncommon for me Shane McLeanahan's a better ace than I normally get but I like that top of the rotation fine Tony Gonsolin who it does sound like he's going to start on beginning of year on the IL now with that ankle injury you know there's no fracture or anything

it doesn't sound like it's going to be a long-term issue and he slid all the way to 195th so I got him as my number four starter. So I feel like my pitching staff for a 15 team league actually looks better than it normally does. But because I was taking what was given to me, there is that issue of I just kept getting screwed out of the

outfielders that I would have liked. So in round 11, at the round 11 12 turn, I was gearing up to take large new back to back. And they were there and they were there and they were there. Who was it? Scott, who was it? Because you like. excited to take them. Scott, you lagged for a second. Who was it? It was Lars Newpar and it was

it was Lars Newbar and Jordan Walker. Gotcha. I was prepared to take them at 1112 turn in and they were there and there and suddenly they weren't there anymore. And so who did I end up taking there? Oh, I was the very boring combination of Hunter Renfro and Daniel Bard. Which was fun. But obviously and I did get an outfield. Thankfully like Hunter Renfro is hard to get excited about taking him, but gosh, if I didn't have him with what ended up, how the outfield ended up playing out, I would have been in a really desperate situation for sure. And then the other instance of that happening was in around 1920 turn. I was geared up to take Garrett Mitchell and Jake Freely back to back. And again, it was the same thing. It looked like they were going to make it to me,

and then suddenly they were gone. And so I ended up taking, again, I took one. I took Traymancini. but I paired him with Craig Kimbril. So Mancini ended up being my fourth outfielder there to go along with Tatez, Luis Robert, and Hunter Renfro. My fifth outfielder is Alex Kirillov, who of course is no safe bet to stay healthy either. And those are the only outfielder I have on my team. So, yeah, so I'm going to be turning to the waiver wire

for at least one in Tatease's spot to begin the year. And there are some guys out there who are at least in line for regular bats. They might not be the greatest at bats, but they won't be a zero for me. But that's probably my biggest regret of the draft is that I wasn't able to build any outfield depth to speak of. And I'm just glad I got the ones I did when I did. Yeah. One thing I really like, Scott, that you broke down there was how you hit all the categories pretty much consistently

throughout your early round picks. So again, and I think that's a really good point for people who either play, I mean, even 12-team roto, but any type of roto or even deeper roto leagues, when you build a balanced roster early, you don't have to reach for specific categories throughout the middle rounds of the draft.

It gives you a little bit more freedom, more flexibility to kind of play with some picks and maybe do things differently or take certain players that you wanted because you didn't have to worry, oh, I need to get power, or I need to get speed because, again, I think you did a really good job,

but your first five picks or so, just loading up on a lot of power and speed early. The one thing I think you're likely to be short on, and it's hard because it fluctuates a lot from your, I do think OVP is going to be an issue for you. I think this is a better batting average team, which obviously makes sense, because you got Salvador Perez and Luis Robert and Oz Yalbis,

probably lower than they normally would in an average league because they're better in an OBE or an average. format, but like looking at your team, Tatea Matrato are good players in any format. They're going to be 360, 370 OBP guys, but like, Albies has been like 310 the last three seasons. Salvador Perez obviously always pretty mediocre in OBP. Luis Robert, I think the thing with him is like, he's not going to walk a lot, but if he hits for the average that people expect him to, he's going to have a decent OBP. Like that's the one that actually like, I think probably falls too far in this format him going to 75 and I'm probably a little lower on him maybe than than most.

But like him falling to 75 in an OBP league feels like one, just a little bit of a misunderstanding of his skill set. Like you don't have to walk a lot to have a useful OBP. You just have to have a good OBP. If he hits 290 like we think he can, he's going to have a fine OBP. All B's doesn't walk a lot and is probably going to be a pretty mediocre batting average player. So he's been a pretty big drain on OBP. But, you know, that that I think is is the one weakness.

But as far as like the counting stats, I think you're you're really solid everywhere. Yeah. No, I agree. And it's it's hard to, it's hard to manage OBP. I feel like because when you consider the players who are actually good at on base percentage, relative to ones who are good at batting average, it's much less. And they tend to get pulled up a lot in this draft. and I'm just not willing to go there usually,

particularly since the ones who are perceived to not excel at OBP slide so far. It's just hard for me to reconcile that. So I try, like, you know, it's a slight thing, but Machado over Devers in round one. I try to make sure, at least with my very earliest picks, that I get a little OBP. I would have, you know,

it would have been great if I kind of got Aaron Judge in round. one instead of Nanny Machia. Yeah. Fernando Tatis who would actually. I would say like a Yandi Diaz who I ended up taking. I have no interest in him in my standard leagues, but I did take him in Tau Wars, which is my league is also OBP. And that was one.

I think he went 242 overall. You took Ezekiel Tovar just ahead of him after taking Cote. You took Cotel Marte and Ezekiel Tovar. Yeah, I mean like those were two of my favorite picks too. So my favorite stretch of picks was the beginning with that Gonsolin pick at the beginning of round 13. It was Gonsolin, Miguel Vargas. I got him in the 14th round of this league compared to 12th round in TGFBI. And he might actually be pretty good in OBP.

Should be good for average and walked at a good rate in the minors too. Cotel Marte should be pretty good in OBP if he's healthy. Ezekiel Tovar, you know, I think he has a chance to be a five. category contributor in Colorado and I probably needed a few more steals at that point. And if he does hit for a good batting average, then the OBP should be regardless of the walk rate should be pretty solid. And look, Anthony Rendon could end up being that guy. Yeah, I did get Anthony Rendon is fine.

Then it's probably not going to matter as much because he should be a high OVP guy. It's just 380 to 400. Yeah. Yanni Diaz is a like locked. in 390, 400 OVP guy. And so that's one that like, if you have a weakness, it's that. And that Anthony Rendon pick in round 18 to be my corner infill. I mean, part of it was just corner infield was starting to look pretty ugly.

But if it wasn't an OBP league, I wouldn't have gone Anthony Rendon there. Yeah. It was partially just the hope that he would help address that, that weakness of my team. And if he stays healthy, he should, big if I know. but otherwise if it was a standard roto league I probably would have just taken Garrett Mitchell there and not crossed my fingers that he would make it to me with the next pair of picks

I do want to jump back to the point Frank made about remind me what's the point was you made Frank again the point that I made was giving yourself power and speed taking power and speed early allows you flexibility throughout the middle rounds of the draft. Yes, and to illustrate this,

I want to look back real quick at the way the same draft started last year. So the winner was Mike Giannella of Baseball Perspectus, and he was a runaway winner. He won by like 13 points. His first 10 picks, if we could go through them real quick.

Corbyn Burns, okay, that's fine. Max Scherzer in round two. Yeah, that's fine, too. Whitmery Field in round three. Randy Orozabrain in round four, okay. Joey Gallo in round five. Big whiffs on two of his first five picks.

Carlos Corre in round six. Okay. Yeah, fine. Christian Yelich in round seven. Same thing. Just kind of, mm-dardvish in round eight, that's fine. Will Smith, the reliever in round nine. Big miss.

Ryan Mountcastle in round 10, pretty bad pick. So three huge misses in his first 10 picks. No amazing picks. And then Ryan Malkassel was a pretty lousy pick as well. Okay. So that was his, the runaway winner. My first 10 picks last year. Vladimir Guerrero.

Okay. Zach Wheeler. All right. Austin Riley in round three. Good pick. Sandy Alcantara in round four, even better. Great pick. Jose Altuve in round five.

Shoot, he's going in round two now. Great pick. Ryan Reynolds in round six, that's fine. Charlie Morton in round seven. Okay, that's the first kind of shaky one, but not as disastrous as some of Gianella's. Justin Verlander in round eight, amazing. Adelberto Montessie in round nine.

Okay, that's the one big miss. And then Shohei Otani, the pitcher in round 10. So I had one miss in my first 10, one kind of miss in my first 10, and then three amazing value picks. I finished eighth of 15 teams. And you know why? I was trying to look back through this, figure it out.

I mean, part of it was just because I, picks 11 through 29 were so bad. I had like one decent player there. But part of it is because as great as those picks were, not many steals to speak of and certainly no saves. So I wasted so many at bats on crappy hitters who I thought might get me steals like Jorge Mateo and so many innings on crappy pitchers

who I thought might get me saves like Tanner Scott that I undermined a lot of my strengths there. I actually had like somewhat similar issues in my Towers League where I finished dead last in stolen bases, which is actually like not that big of a problem because the team that won finished third. So like, you know, you can still do well. You're going to be bad at something.

but yeah, I had somewhat similar outcomes. So, like, rather than suffer through that again, and I just, I hate, I hate doing this because,

like, you know, you think better players means better team, right? Like, it's just, you know,

certainly in a points league, that would be the case. But because there, there are those, those real specialized skills that are weighed evenly to all the others in a Roto league, addressing them early,

with players who definitely deserve to be in your starting lineup, but they happen to contribute saves or steals and then not having to, you know, not having to just like waste lineup spots chasing those categories. I think, especially for a Roto League this deep, I think it's a better way to build it. And so hopefully I won't have that same problem. My problem this year is just going to be staying healthy.

I mean, I talked about Luis Robert and, Fernando Dati's not being available at the start of the year. Alex Kirolov, having health issues, Anthony Rendon, I mean, even Carlos Correa. And then beyond that, some of my upside picks later, guys, we already know are going to be on the aisle, like Lance McCullors and Trevor's story. There is an actual IL in this league unlike TGFPI, which helps a heck of a lot. I wouldn't have taken Trevor Story in TGFBI. There's unlimited IL spots too, so you can take advantage of that. Love it.

Yeah, so I will be, I won't have to like, oh, do I drop this guy who can be a big help later on so that I don't take a zero in my lineup? Like, that's not going to be a consideration, thankfully, because I could just put them on the aisle, pick up somebody who takes place. But we are entering, you know, one of the problems I had last year with that great start and still finishing eighth. Going to talk about the juice ball era again. So the 15-team Roto League is something. Fairly new. Like, I didn't play in a 15-team Roto League until we were the juice ball era, like, when it was first getting started. So basically, my whole time playing in that format has coincided with the juice ball year.

I don't have much experience with it before that. And since the main change with the juice ball era was a wider distribution of home runs, deepening the hitter ranks overall, I think it was easy to approach it. approach the late picks like really selling out for upside and if it didn't work out you know there are a lot of redundancies at hit her and you could fill in the gaps with a boring player and be fine

but now we're on the other side of that and it might make more sense you know just again comparing my team to G&L's last year it might make more sense to treat a 15 team roto league much like an ALNNL only league where the hitting is so scarce that you can't you can't afford to miss that much.

And so, you know, if you're pursuing upside too hard, even if it's later in the draft, you're going to end up, you're going to have a hard time keeping up in those counting stats. And this actually played out with my team last year. I was the number two team in home runs. I was the number four team in stolen bases, but I was fourth to last in RBI and right in the middle and runs scored.

Like that doesn't feel like it should happen. but a lot of my lineup spots were going to hitters who just didn't have a very high floor for all those great options I got early. So even though I went pretty heavy on upside late in this one, I was conscientious of getting

players who I knew would be in the lineup every day if they were healthy like Cotell Marte, like Ezekiel Tovar, like Trey Mancini, I made even more of an emphasis than that. Put even more emphasis on that in TGFBI. But, you know, and I was still able to get some upside plays late. But you kind of have to keep feeding the counting stats while you still can, I think, in leads this deep. Yeah, and I think that's a credit to what Mike Ginella did last year.

I know he wound up with a lot of players from rounds 11 through 29, which were probably viewed as just kind of boring, safe guys. maybe they don't have crazy upside, but they played a lot. I know you highlighted some of those on Twitter, Scott, and they gave you, it doesn't even have to be excess value. They just need to give you value. You know, they need to pay off their spots. And I think, again, that's where the comparison between a deeper mixed league and an AL&L only comes in

where you just kind of want some of those, not all your picks, but you want some. You want some boring guys that are just going to give you played appearances and help build up those counting stats. So somebody to keep in mind if you play in deeper leagues, but Scott's right. You play 10 and 12 team leagues.

you really want to swing for the fences in those middle and late round picks. Let's take a break and when we get back, we'll hit some news and notes and talk a little bit about my NL-only labor team here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back into Fantasy Baseball today. Let's quickly run through some news and notes. And we will start with Andrew Painter has not been told surgery is needed on his ailing right elbow. Sounds like he'll need some time to heal, however, which means belly falter is the favorite for the Phillies fifth starter job,

which we expected on yesterday's podcast. Stalling Marte is set to make his spring debut on Friday. Marte required surgery in November to address separated tendons on both sides of his groin, but he's made steady progress and should be ready for opening day. Jacob de Grom could make his Cactus League debut as soon as Monday. He's been working his way back from left side tightness. Joe Musgrove threw on flat ground Wednesday,

but did not land on his left foot. So both feet were just planted where he was throwing. I guess it was more just like a keep your arm loose type of exercise. He was not wearing a walking boot today, I think, for the first time since the injury. Yeah, hey, positive steps. We'll take that with Joe Musgrove. Felix Bautista is on track to throw live batting practice next week. He's been rehabbing both a shoulder, both shoulder and knee issues.

And as long as he could work his way into one or two spring training games, which he hasn't done yet. But if he does that, then he should be good to go for opening day. Tony Gonsolins left ankle is still swollen, but X-rays revealed there was no fracture. Dave Roberts said he, quote, doesn't feel good about Gonsland being ready for opening day, which Scott mentioned earlier. And I guess that would mean one of Michael Grove or Ryan Pepio is in the rotation to start. Do you guys have a lean on one of those guys or which way do you think the Dodgers are going? I mean, I'd rather be Pepio because there's actually some upside there. And I think he's looked pretty good this spring, if I remember, if I'm remembering my box.

review correctly, but I don't know which way they're leaning. And I don't imagine it be for long anyway. All right. Oswald Paraza is expected to return to game action Thursday. He tweaked something in his lower left leg last week, but seems to be okay. Justin Turner will probably be out two weeks after getting hit in the face with a pitch. He needed 16 stitches on Monday. Opening day could be in doubt for Justin Turner.

Leot Tavares is going to miss a couple of weeks with a left oblique striks. It won't be ready for opening day. The team has already ruled out prospect Evan Carter making the team, so he will start in the minors. And let me quickly pull up the Texas Rangers roster resource page. I don't think that there will be

much value with whoever fills in, but you never know. All right, so, well, actually, yeah, Bubba Thompson. If you play in... Yeah, Boba Thompson would be the... You play in a deeper categories league. I mean, that dude is fast, so, like, he's gonna steal some bases. Definitely a name to pay attention to

in deeper category leagues. Bubba Thompson filling in in center field for Lioti Tavares. Pirates prospect, Tamar Johnson, will miss six weeks with a strained right hamstring and just a few performances of note. Scott McGuff walked one,

but struck out three. Who? Who, Scott McGuff? That's spelled MCG-O-U-G-H. He's part of the very large Diamondbacks bullpen by committee. We don't really know what's going on there. But he struck out three

in his relief appearance Wednesday. He's thrown four scruiless innings so far this spring. I kind of feel like he's going to get the first save off for the Diamondbacks. I don't think anyone knows for sure. He had 69 saves over the past two seasons in Japan. And good thing at spring training. Get it out of the way now.

Dylan Seas. Did you guys see this line here? Bad. He was charged with 11 earned runs, seven hits, four walks in less than an inning of work in his spring training outing on Wednesday. So, I mean, my gosh.

Making up for all those unerned runs last year. I thought the correction. I thought the same exact thing. I thought the same exact thing. It all came on March 8. Sounds like a bus candidate to me. Oh, there you go. This is why spring training matters. Now, it's just kidding, obviously. Michael Massey hit a grand slam and he stole a base. So spring training sock in his shoe, Scotty, we'll take that. Massey. Yeah. Massey already has three home runs in the spring, though I believe he fouled a ball off of his foot and then he left the game. So hopefully everything's all right.

By the way, this sock and a shoe thing is. is gaining traction. Have you noticed? It sure is. I've seen people making reference to it. It is. Without making reference to us. Like it's just part of the baseball vernacular.

Let's go. I got to say, like a little credit for that one. I was denied credit on John Means business. That became a whole meme that I think I started, but like nobody wanted to give me credit for that. I think I need a little credit for the old sock and a shoe. I'll give you credit for it, Scotty. I know John Lagasa on Twitter,

he tagged you in a tweet saying that he believed you were the one that originated the sock in a shoe. He believes accurately. Home run and a steal in the same game. I tried to go with tweet and Savory for a while, but people were not having it, so we quickly ditch that. Before we get into my NL labor team, we'll just quickly talk about that.

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Again, that's CBSports.com slash FBT. Let's take a look quickly at my NO-only labor salary cap draft that I was a part of, salary cap, also known as auction draft. First and foremost, doing an auction in person, fantasy baseball auction,

is the best. There is nothing better than that in fantasy. It is so fun. They're bidding wars. Poker faces. There's egos. There's cadence in terms of bidding. There's so many different strategies.

If you have the possibility to do a salary cap, auction draft in person, please do it because it is fantastic and I absolutely love it. 12-team league, $260 budget. This was also a standard rhodo lineups with batting average.

instead of OBP. Again, if you're watching us live on YouTube, I've got the draft board up on the screen here. So the standard batting average, not OBP. Yeah, yeah. I think that's what I said. Batting average instead of OBP. You did. You did. And there's a unique roster rule here with labor that just quickly need to mention. You can't take a player out of your starting lineup unless they either wind up on the IL, they get demoted to the minors, or you drop them. So if a player is active, you basically need to keep that player in your lineup. And look, in an AL or Anna only league, the waiver wire is going to be pretty awful. So once the season starts, I can't just take any of my bench players and put them in for somebody in my lineup. I can't just make regular weekly transactions unless a player in my lineup either gets hurt, demoted, or I drop that player. So- And that makes drafting Fernando Tatis kind of awkward. Yes. I mean, that's why you'll see on this draft board here for those watching. There are a lot of either hurt players currently or

minor leaguers that were drafted. And that's strategically because it allows you more flexibility within your your transactions. You can put players in and out of your lineup then by, you know, once the season starts, player goes in the IL, all right? You take them out, put them on your IL spot, and then you could put someone in your lineup. So there's a strategy factor to that, and I kind of wish I wound up with someone who was on the IL to start the season, but. So when Fernando Tatees comes back, you need to hope somebody else is hurt or demoted, right? Or you just have to have him in your lineup the first two weeks. No, yeah, that's exactly it.

Chris is right. Because, I mean, I guess I should have asked what happens with suspension, but I would imagine that probably is... They're on the roster. Yeah, yeah. So you probably... It applies the other way, too. It's not just...

This is your only opportunity to remove someone, but this is your only opportunity to insert a new someone, too. My general strategy was to not spend more than $30 on any player. Wind up with a 65%, 35% split. hit her pitcher split in terms of my budget, and draft relatively boring, high floor players who are going to play. Scott, you know this because you do the AL&L only drafts on CBS every year. Played appearances and innings are key.

Playing time matters immensely in a format like that. So before I reveal my team, Scott, what did you think of my general strategy going in? Yeah, no, that's how I try to approach A&L only leagues too, and that's why I kind of made that comparison. to a 15-team Roto League where I might have to treat them more similarly now with hitter being scarcer. But I didn't always do it that way. And I came to realize, you know, once I came to realize a few years ago just how important it was to have playing time in your lineup,

even if it's pretty blah playing time. once I made that adjustment, which meant, you know, in the salary cab draft, not not spending as much on the high dollar players because you don't want low dollar players. Low dollar players in an AL&LLLL only league are probably going to be ones who aren't playing. Right. So I made that same adjustment you did. Generally speaking, I don't spend more than $30 on any player. I might go 31, 32 on somebody, but, you know, it's a loose rule. certainly not going 45-50 on anybody. And once I made that adjustment, I started doing a lot better in these leagues.

Like I think AL-N-only leagues are the ones I'm consistently good at these days, which is hard to do because obviously there's more anytime somebody gets injured in a league this deep, it's a disaster. So you'd think it'd be more vulnerable to luck and it'd be harder to be consistent at it. But that, you know, what you're saying, really distributing the dollars more, evenly makes a lot of sense. And I mostly accomplished my goals. I did have one mishap within the draft which caused me to miss out on a few hitter targets specifically at third base and my second catcher spot. So I wound up spending

62% on hitting 38% on pitching came up a little bit short there. Brace yourselves for those listening are watching. If you do not play in a L or only this is going to sound awful. Here's my team. Sean Murphy, Tucker Barnhart at catcher, that's right Tucker Barnhart. Reese Hoskins, Jean Seguerra Francisco Lindor, Evan Longoria in the infield, C.J. Abrams at middle, G. Man Choy at corner. And then in the outfield, I've got Christian Yelich, Lars Neupar, Charlie Blackman, Andrew McCutcheon, Mark Kana,

and then Nelson Cruz at Utility. Chris, you're up, man. Rip me apart. What do you think? Mostly boring, guys, but I got my two upside plays in Lars Neupar and C.J. Abrams. Yeah, no, I think it's fine because, you know, going through it, it's hard to have everyday players in every spot. in an NL only or AL only league, frankly.

And I think you pretty much do outside of Evan Longoria and G. Manchoy probably. And then Nelson Cruz, we don't quite know, but I don't think he's going to play every day. So, yeah, I think in that regard, well, and Marcana. So he starts adding up. But no, I think for the most part, it's a good balance of getting a couple upside guys, getting mostly dependable starters. And like Christian Yelts is someone that. I think sort of gets viewed as a boring low upside player,

but I do still think because he's got pretty good plate discipline, the athletic skills are still pretty good. And he hit the ball really hard last season. So I do think there is room for a, not a return to being a 50 homer 30 pace guy like he was at his best. But like, if Christian Yelich hits 25 home runs this season, it wouldn't shock me.

And that would make your team a lot better. Yeah, I mean, basically, I had players at each position. I had a budget for each position, so I knew, for example, my outfield one, I was going to spend $18 to $20. And it was Christian Yelich, Ian Hap, and Chris Bryant. And I think Brian actually went for 17.

So he actually turned out being a really good buy. But I wanted players with similar skill sets at each position and then wind up with one of those players. So I give myself different options within the draft if someone's going cheaper, so on and so forth. So that was my plan. And for the most part, I really did stick to it. On the pitching side, my starters were Brandon Woodruff,

Nick Lodolo, Carlos Carrasco, Ross Tripling, Hayden Wisniewski, and Taiwan Walker. My relievers, I wanted one surefire closer. I spent up for Devin Williams, who's $21. And then I've got Scott McGuff,

that name again, and Joe Mantaplies. So each of those Diamondbacks relievers were $1 each. If they combine for... If they combine for 10 to 15 saves, I'm ecstatic, Chris. That's all I need.

You got like 30% of the potential closers for the Diamondbacks. Yeah. I took Kevin Ginkle in the reserve round, too, so I actually wound up with the holy trinity of Arizona Diamondbacks relievers. Scott, what do you think overall about the pitching staff here and then any thoughts on the hitters? Well, I can mostly just compare it to my own NL only team I put together, same, you know, salary cap league, 12 teams, all that. And there are a lot of similarities. I wish you had a better third basement or corner infielder because you got Evan Longoria and G.

Manchoy in those spots. And like if one of those was somebody who I thought could be more than just there, I'd feel a lot better about your team. I don't know that I would have gone 18 on Sean Murphy. I feel like catchers aren't a great investment in leagues this deep because they're not, for the amount of money you pay, the run and RBI production won't be the same as if you devoted those dollars to another position.

And in my own and all only league, I didn't go for a true ace like Brandon Wool. at Brandon Woodruff, because I think the mid-tier is deep enough to compete in the pitching categories in this league. So I would have taken some of those dollars from Woodruff the 28th there, some of those dollars from Sean Murphy to 18 there and probably paid for another corner infielder and probably another outfield or two. But overall, I think we're closer to the same mindset than not.

Yep, yep. I agree completely. Third base and corner, those are not the guys that I had written down. was when my like mid-draft issue was going on so that's why it kind of messed things up for me but um i did wind up with someone in reserve scott who you also drafted who could turn out to be a big win specifically for third base and corner christian incarnation strand of the cincinnati reds this guy is off to an amazing start in the spring training 12 for 20 three homers 10 rbi i a 1700 OPS.

Obviously, it's a super small sample. I didn't think there was any chance, Scott, of him making the opening day roster. I would say that chance is at least 50% now. What are your thoughts on Encarnacion Strand? So C. Trent Rosicrans, who covers the Reds for the Athletic, and has covered them for a long time

for different publications. He had an article about this in the Athletic the other day, and they were talking about potential replacements for Joey Votto. who doesn't look like is going to be ready for the start of the year. And Bell acknowledged that Incarnazion Strand is part of that. He hasn't spent a lot of time at AA yet. Obviously put up huge numbers in the miners,

putting huge numbers this spring, but just he hasn't gotten a lot of upper-level experience, and they're taking that into account. But this is the same organization, the same leadership that, you know, spring training a couple years ago, Jonathan India didn't look like he was in the discussion, and then suddenly he was the opening day second basement. So Bell's saying that Incarnacion Strand could follow in those footsteps.

And I took him late in TOWARS. He was one of those upside picks I took late. I took him late in TGFBI, too. It's one of my last couple picks. I think he is definitely a player who is gaining traction this spring. He's eligible at third base everywhere, which is great. And considerable power. Some plate discipline questions, but considerable power.

All right, well, that's my NL-only labor team. Good luck to me. I haven't played in a Mono League for a while, but again, the live in-person auction, I mean, that is just fantastic, so I highly recommend it. Let's take one more break here, and when we return, we'll have a special guest here on Fantasy Baseball Today.

So every September, our friends from the Fantasy Football Today crew put on their Draftathon event. It is a six-hour live stream, giving out fantasy football advice and raising money for St. Jude's Children's Host. Last year they auctioned off a bunch of fun experiences and one of them was a guest experience, a guest appearance on this podcast. Please welcome in the other winner of that contest.

He is Neil Shaw. Welcome to the show. Neil, what's going on, man? Hey, guys. Good evening. Thanks for having me. I really appreciate it. I'm excited for it.

Yeah, absolutely. So tell us a little bit about yourself, what types of fantasy baseball leagues you play in, maybe what team you're for, all that fun stuff. Yeah, I've been doing, you know, like rotissory going back to the 80s. almost 50 years old. So I've been playing since, you know, that was probably 12, 13 years old. And I'm a lifelong Yankee fan. Yeah. Over 40 years. So Donnie baseball was my guy growing up. But I've been with in a league for over 20 years now with really close friends from

growing up since, you know, elementary school friends, middle school friends. And it's an auction, 12 team, $260 dress. We have three, we have keepers. You're allowed five keepers for up to three years. And at some point, before we close, I do want to ask you a keeper question about my team, get your perspective on that. But yeah, no, it's a very competitively, really good guys, but very competitively, a lot of fun. All right.

Well, we're interested to get your perspective in OG here, playing fantasy since the 1980s. Yeah, you got any, like, fun. Newspapers and keep stats, you know, literally with pencil and paper every day. I can't even imagine. Do you have any, like, fun, fun traditions? Because I'm in a league that's been, I've been in this league for three seasons now. This is going to be my third. But the league itself has been running since the 80s.

Yeah. And they've got a tradition of like the winner. We do Peter Lugar's Steakhouse night at the end of the year in like November. And this is November in Brooklyn. So it's, you know, usually in the 40s. The person who wins the league, everybody at the draft party dunks bottles of youhoo. The chocolate. I don't think there's actually any milk in that,

but the chocolate-flavored drink. The chocolate drink, right. So that's our fun. So, like, that's what that league, I want to come in second, you know? Like, that's my goal. I don't actually want to win that week. You win a lot of money for winning it,

but I'm good with second. Second gets a decent amount of money too. Yeah, so, no, and again, I've been listening to you guys, you know, for several years now. I listen on a regular basis, and it's just very enjoyable for me. It's very relaxing.

And I'm a baseball nerd, so I love the stuff you guys talk about. My wife, not so much, but she tolerated. Yeah, and I appreciate you bringing up the tracking stats and pen and paper and newspapers and box players. People don't know this. The way I got into fantasy was my dad was playing back in the 90s when he would have to like mail in his lineups. And you got to call people on the phone to make trades and all that kind of fun stuff. Right, exactly. Exactly.

And that's how actually I became friends with these guys. We'd be on the phone for hours at a time, you know, back when we were like seventh and eighth grade. And that's how we became lifelong friends. Yeah, exactly. And how I got exposure was he let me name the team. I would name the fantasy baseball team and then my dad would do all the work. So that's basically how I got introduced to it. And it was a ton of fun, obviously, to this day.

So what Neil wanted to do is he has some players that either, you know, we haven't talked enough about or players that he has a different perspective on. So we'll try and run through as many of these as possible. And Neil, I want you to start with the hitting sleepers that you provided me. Outside of the top 300, who are those guys that you're looking at? Yeah, no, thanks. And I tried to come up with guys who have some track record where there's a reason to believe. And there's a change that's happened. That's a reason to believe.

So the first guy is Adam Duval, who's, you know, I think number 400 rank in CBS sports. And obviously, he's a guy who in 2021, had 38 homers, led the National League. in 2020, 2019, he was in 800, 850 to almost 900 OPS guy. And last year was obviously very much a down season for him. What excites me, though, is he moved to Fenway. Obviously, that's a stadium built, I think, for his swing as a flyball hitter or as a dead pole hitter. Obviously, he's a righty.

He's a gold glove type fielder, so he'll be playing center field, I think, on a regular basis. And, you know, in a small sample size at Fenway, only 18 at bat's career, he has four homers in like a 1400 OPS. So I think he's a guy, again, he's out, he's in the 400 rankings, so you can get him for free. And I think he's a 30 plus home run candidate on playing full time, again, for the Red Sox and what I think is a very good lineup, actually. So that's the first one. The second one is Jared Walsh, who is again, obviously first base for the Angels, ranked 326. So again, so outside of 300. And here, so he's first,

full month as a major leager was in September 2020, September 2020. And, and then this first three months of 2021, he was basically an all-star. So in those first four full months, I edited up, he had 29 homers and 84 RBIs, okay, in his first four full months as a pro. However, going back to 2019, he has this thoracic outlet syndrome issue. And that reared its head in the second half of 2021. So his second half numbers of 21 were down and 2022 was a disaster for him. Ultimately, he had to have surgery on that and he basically missed the rest of the season last year. He's come back. And then this is an issue that affects basically, you know, your collarbone, you know, down to your ribs, causes shoulder and neck pain and numbness. So it's just really hard,

obviously, to play. But now he's had surgery on it. He says he's 100% healthy. Obviously, he's a starting first base and for the Angels. And again, I think a really good lineup. So, you know, and he's the guy who has a track record. So if he's healthy now, I think he's a potential big contributor at first base, who again is not even being drafted. And then the third one is Brandon Belt, who, again, ranked outside of the top 300. Obviously in 2020, 2021, you know, over the course of those two seasons, 475 at bats. He had 38 homers and 1,000 OPS. so it's not that far removed. And he's another one who in 2022, he's had chronic knee issues.

It pretty much saddled him all year last year, his power completely. He's talked about that to the point that he ultimately had season-ending surgery to repair his knee. He says he's 100%. He obviously signed with the Blue Jays. And it's going to segue into my next idea that I want to talk about. But the Blue Jays have brought their outfield in, especially, for in the right center field power sort of gap or alley, okay, obviously he's a left-handed hitter, so it's perfectly suited for him. They brought their fences in from 375 to 359. And I look this up.

I think that is actually the shortest porch in right-center field in all Major League Baseball. So I think that is totally suited for a left-handed power hitter. And now that he's healthy, I think he's a guy who can, again, be a 30 home run hitter as basically, you know, a strong side or potentially full-time DH, and subbing in a little bit of first base for the Blue Jays. So he's another guy who I'm really excited about. Scott, three names there.

Adam Duval, now with the Red Sox, Jared Walsh, coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and Brandon Belt now with the Blue Jays. Do you have any interest in any of these three guys, obviously in Deep Relief. I have talked about Duval some as a deep sleeper for the reasons Neil mentioned. I mean, he, the home runs he hits are high home runs to the pole side.

And yeah, I mean, you can't ask for a better venue for Duval than Fenway. Now, I mean, home runs are basically all he can provide if he's going to provide anything. But home runs are getting pretty hard to find at that stage of the draft. So I think I think that's a good call there. There have been times when I've gotten excited about Brandon Belt. He hasn't debuted yet this spring coming off knee surgery. It doesn't sound like it's really an issue, but it's become kind of this out of sight, out of mind thing. Did he, I closed the window.

Do you have the Tout Wars draft of Frank? Did Brandon Bell get taken there? Because that's somebody who, if, you know, if he is playing even semi-regularly in addition to the power, that's an OBP. source. That's something he's always excelled at. So that might be, can't use him in the outfield, unfortunately, but that might be somebody I'm looking to pick up if you didn't get taken. All right, Neil, let's get into your bold predictions you sent me two names here, one of them, including another left-handed Blue Jays hitter.

Exactly, exactly. So I'm high on this point. I think a fantasy winner is going to be Dalton Bar Show. Obviously, he's well-known and, you know, et cetera. But I'm making a case that I think he could be a league winner, essentially. And the reason for that is the point I mentioned about, Toronto and in that power alley and right center field. But also, if you look at his numbers, he's going to be playing full-time outfield. If you look at his numbers, he's a significantly better hitter as an outfielder than as a

catcher going back to his time in Arizona. Okay. Not only that, if you look at late last season, basically he had very little power at catcher, didn't run at catcher. In September last season, obviously playing full-time outfield, he had nine homers, eight stolen bases. okay, he's got very high, obviously great speed. So I think he's a guy who is going to, as a full-time outfielder, be a 30-30 player

and obviously with catcher eligibility. And I think that'll be the first time ever that you've had a catcher as a 30-30 player, to my knowledge. So that's one reason I'm very excited. I mean, we all know that Varsos is a great player, but I think right now he's ranked, I think, in the 50s and the number two catcher, but I think he could be a stellar, stellar player this season. So I'm excited about him. Did you reply to my survey saying Paul and Varsha could be a 30-30 catcher? Okay, because somebody else said that, my survey on Twitter,

that the results I'm going to write about tomorrow. I thought Pudge got there. He didn't. He had 35-25s. It just came up short. Real Muto was only the second 2020 catcher ever following that year that Pudge won MVP. Yeah. Yeah. The other one I was going to say is obviously Bobby Witt, who's, you know, ranked in the 20s, et cetera.

I'm going to make a case. I think Witt could be a top five player this year. And the argument I'm going to make is obviously Witt last year as a 21-year-old. He basically only had one season in pro baseball prior to that. And that was in double A and AAA. He played about 125 games. So you throw out the first month because, you know, Mike Trout's first month. month is a major leaguer. He has 600 OPS, right? So you're just getting your feet wet. A lot of pressure on him, you know, standing ovation is first at bad in Kansas City. And the next four months, he basically averaged five homers a month in about five to six steals a month, the next four months. And then in September, I just think he got worn out. He had never played that many games. You know, he's learning shortstop and third base of the

big league level flip, flipping back and forth. So this offseason, he added about eight pounds of muscle. And I think the comp, and now he's entering is age 23 season. I think the comp to him is Trey Turner. And if you look at Trey Turner, his age 22 season and then his age 23 season, they have very similar body types. They obviously have elite sprint speed. Witt actually has better, you know, stat cast numbers, even at this stage than Trey

Turner. So I think, and we know he's an elite player, but I'm just making a point that I think he has a chance to be a, you know, 30 homer, 25 to 30 homer, 35 to 40 steal guy at third base with third base eligibility. And I think that would make him potentially a top five player in fantasy this year. Chris, I don't think we have to squint too hard to see those counting stats coming to fruition, right? 25 plus home runs, 40 steals, Bobby Witt, in terms of sprint speed, one of the fastest players in the game added some muscle in the offseason. So yeah, I wouldn't surprise me if he gets the mid-20s.

I think maybe the biggest issue I have with Witt is where does the batting average wind up? Obviously, he hit around 250 last year. It's his first season. He could and should take the next step this year. But I think that's probably my biggest question mark is the batting average for Bobby Lipp. My point is he was only 22 years old. And again, he first year in the bigs. And if you look at most guys, I mean, that's still a stellar first season as a player.

So I would expect him to improve pretty much across the board with one year experience now. Yeah, the thing with Bobby Witt that I struggle with is like the plate discipline is not good, right? He strikes out actually not that much 21.4%. He doesn't walk at all. So he doesn't swing and miss all that much. So for me, it's more about like making better swing decisions, you know, chasing a little less, swinging at pitches to hit a little more. if you can make those changes, then I do think you're just going to see the whole game grow, right? It's not just a strikeout walk thing.

That's the kind of thing where picking better pitches to swing at means you're going to, in theory, make better contact. You're going to have a better batting average. I do think there's definitely, he's a player who, whatever, if there's growth, it's likely to be exponential, right? It's likely to be a situation where if Bobby Wet gets a little bit better at a couple of things,

he's going to get a lot better at everything. Because he's such a talented player that like, that's why I wrote my piece today. The, I think I called it the players I have to draft at least once. And Bobby Wood wasn't on that list. He probably should have been because that's, that's one that I think the likeliest outcome is he probably

disappoints a little bit at a, you know, late first round, early second round ADP. But if he hits, he's going to be really, really good. And that's the kind of player that you need at least some exposure to when you're talking about a portfolio of fantasy baseball.

We had two big Japanese players come over to the states this offseason. Masataka Yoshita with the Red Sox and Kodai Senga with the New York Mets. And Neil, you have some predictions on those two. Yeah. Okay. So I know you guys are a little bit down on Yoshita. And I did some research on this. And it's interesting.

Obviously, it's been a lot of Japanese imports in Major League Baseball. But there's only been a handful, believe it not, of hitters. And they've been big name, of course, in Matsui and Ichuro and, of course, Otani. But then after those three, it's like Shogo Akiyama and Kaz Matsui. There's not a lot after those three. And, of course, say, Suzuki. There aren't a lot of good ones after those three. Well, but there's none.

There's virtually none. There's mostly pitchers. There's hitters you can count on less than two hands, basically. And the interesting thing about the hitters is Otani is the only one who's come, you know, under the age of 25. 18 of age 22, 23. Everybody else has come with basically nine years of pro experience in Japan. So they all come in their late 20s, including Matsui and Ichoro. And when they come, if you look at for all these guys, they're Japanese numbers to the U.S.

They all have a detraction in OPS of about 150 to 200 points, again, including Yitro and Matsui. And so I'm just saying, like, if history holds, you should see that similar detraction for Yoshida. which he's a thousand OPS guy in Japan last year. He was 980 the year before that, 966 the year before that. So at 150 to 200 decline, that's still an 800 to an 850 type OPS player, which would put him in the ranks of what you saw from Tucker and Bichet and Guerrero last season. He's an OPS, I mean, an on-based machine of 440 on-base for the last three years. Okay.

He's playing again in Fenway Park, and he's going to be batting near the top of the lineup. So he's going at 245, or that's where his ranking is. And I think that's a huge steal where he's going to be a great source of batting average runs on-based percentage. So I'm quite excited about Yoshida, and I think that he's very much underappreciated. So that's my argument on Yoshita. Yeah, a cop I would make would be like the 2021 version of Alex Verdugo, who's a pretty boring fantasy player, doesn't really get anyone excited, doesn't hit for home runs, doesn't steal many bases. That's probably the profile we're likely to see with Yoshida,

but could be a good source of batting average, should be on base a lot. And Alex Verdugo was a top 100 player in 2021 in Roto League, because he scored 88 runs, he hit 289. I could see as something somewhat similar outcome for him. And, you know, Verdugo is someone who, I don't, this might be the very first time we've mentioned Alex Verdugo on this podcast since whenever we talked about him last year.

but he's being drafted higher than Yoshita. If I'm correct, he's, yeah, 196. Yeah, I'm making a claim that I think Yoshita's going to finish up as a top 20 outfielder. That's my prediction. That's where I'm going with that one on Yoshita. I think he'll be really surprised. I can see it more in a head-to-head points league where plate discipline matters so much. You lose points for strikeouts.

Obviously, you gain points for walks. I think in OBP formats, my problem with Yoshita is I just don't know if he's going do enough power and speed-wise from a roto perspective to be that top 20 outfielder. And if it does happen, it's probably on the strength of batting average, scoring runs, and the fact that the outfield position just isn't very good. So that, to me, is the path to it happening. But Scott, I just, I have skepticism on the power and the speed for Yoshida. Well, there is no speed.

He's not going to steal any bases. He didn't do much of that in Japan either. So the power was, you know, he had a couple, yeah, he had some 20 plus homer seasons in Japan. It's obviously not a neat. There's not like a simple formula you can apply to say how that's going to translate to the majors. But like nobody sustains the power that they had in Japan. Understandably, the venues are smaller, the ball is smaller. It's just a different environment.

But I'm not counting on more than like double-digit home runs from Yoshida. So it's really like, is he going to be helpful enough in the counting stats? I was a little more excited when it looked like he was going to bat lead off. Now they're saying probably cleanup is more likely. So that's going to cost him some of those counting stats. Certainly he's not going to be a run scoring specialist the way he would have been at the top of the lineup. But could he be like a Jeff McNeil sort of batting average specialist? Or, you know, I've made the Alex Verdugo comp before as well.

Somewhere in that range is what I'm expecting for Yoshita. Obviously, there are more doubts because we haven't seen them actually do it. But that's how I've been approaching him. But do you think there's more power than I'm giving him credit for, Neil? No, I'm not, I agree with you. I'm not expecting a lot in terms of power. Although I do think the Fenway Park situation is a positive. You know, we haven't seen, I think that's a positive for him,

the ability to pepper the opposite field there and doubles. But look, my argument is going to be based on his ability to hit over 300. I do think that lineup is a strong lineup. We talked about Duval, but I actually think it's a very deep and strong lineup. Turner, ultimately getting back, you know, the shortstop. But, you know, Casas, for example, too, you know, Devers, of course. I think it's a good lineup. You know, so I do think he'll have an opportunity still score runs, even if he's batting cleanup.

And, of course, driving in RBI's too. So, yeah, I'm not. counting on more than teens homer for him, but I think, but I think you add it all up. And again, he's a guy right now that, you know, he's probably not even in the top 50 outfielders. I think he's a real value. So that's, that's what I'm excited about. All right. Neil, let's wrap up with some of these quick hitters that you have here. You know, we've got a couple of minutes left. Yeah. Let me, yeah, quickly. Yeah, thanks. So look, I think, you know, you guys were talking about Wander Franco. I totally agree with you. I think that he was played by injuries last season.

I'm expecting a big, big season from Wander Franco. I'm actually expecting a big season from Jonathan India, again, he was also played by injuries last season. I think Stephen Kwan is going to have a much better season. He's going, I think, 110 right now, and I compare him to Cedric Mullins at 36. I'm expecting Kwan to have a season that's around 25 to 30 stolen bases north of 100 runs.

If you look at what he did in the second half last season, in 14 steals. He's obviously a terrific batting. average guy. And I think that Cleveland lineup is quite strong, obviously, with the addition of the first baseman and just overall depth there. I think Andres Jimenez, I actually compare him to Jose Altuve. I know most of you guys, maybe don't feel that way, but his numbers are comparable if you look at, you know, things like exit velocity, hard hit, sprint speed, etc. He's only 23 years old.

I look at him making a jump, like similar to what Altuve did from his age 23 to age 24 season. So I'm expecting Jimenez to actually be even better this season. And so I'm expecting strong production there. I think Ahmed Rosario is a 35 to 40 steel guy this series on a contract season. That's his biggest value. And I think obviously he wants to get paid. So I'm expecting a lot there. I think Corbyn Carroll is Mookie Betts 2.0.

They're almost identical in terms of body type in terms of what they did in the minors. And in terms of what they did in the first 100, 200 of backs in the major league, so I expect a big, big season with Corby and Carroll. I think Gunner Henderson is David Wright 2.0. Similar, identical stacks in the minor leagues, identical age 21 season, identical body type. Obviously, a top prospect. I think Gunner Henderson could have a David Wright type age 22 season,

which was 27 homers, a 17-zone basis. So I think a lot of value there. And then I think a couple of values on the pitching side, I think Justin Steele, if you look at his second half last season, 36 innings, sub one ERA, 11 and a half strikeouts per nine innings. I think he's getting very little credit. He's going 374. They added obviously Bellinger and the shortstop, so I think their defense will be better in Chicago to help him.

And, you know, real deep sleepers, Kyle Bradish, who is going, I think, almost 800, so not even being drafted. in the last seven starts of last season. He had 23 scoreless innings versus the Houston Astros and the Cleveland Guardian. So I think he's a guy with a much better team going back to Gunnar Henderson and Rushman, for example, that I think is a real value. So these are just some quick hits I wanted to throw out there.

And sorry, one more is Cote Senga. I think he is Masahiro Tanaka. If you look at his stats in Japan, they're almost identical to Tanaka. He's playing for the match. Good lineup, good bullpen. Number three or number four pitchers, so easier matchups.

expect Cody Senga to have a very nice Tanaka-like season, the Tanaka's first season is a Yankee. So I'm expecting a lot from Senga as well. I think as long as Kodi Senga could throw strikes. I mean, with that fastball, 96-97, the Ghost Fork, we know that when Tanaka was great for fantasy, it was a lot of that splitter usage. So, you know, pretty similar pitchers there.

Ameta Rosario, 30 to 40 steals. I love to hear it. I don't know if Scott could say the same thing. So we know Scott. I've had that. He's so fast. always seems like he, for his whole career, it seemed like he underperformed as a base dealer. And so, you know, you're right. And I looked this up. As a Met, he led the league twice and

maybe once, but maybe twice and caught stealing. He was not a good base still at the Mets. He had to learn that. But with the Guardians, he's been very efficient for 35. So he's gotten better as the Guardian. And again, he's got to get paid. And his only card is going to be steals. And as we've talked about, it's a lot easier to steal base. Exactly. Exactly. the league-wide percentage of success is going to go up. And Rosario should benefit from that. All right. Well, Neil, it was a pleasure having you on the podcast here,

your expertise, your years of experience playing fantasy baseball. And of course, we really do appreciate your contribution and your donation to St. Jude. So thanks again, man. We really appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Pleasure to meet you all. And thanks for having me and appreciate the time.

We enjoyed it. Yeah, great job from Neil there. We're going to wrap there for Scott, Chris, and Neil Shaw. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.