Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Trade Deadline Recap (so far)! Jazz Chisholm to the Yankees & Much More! (7/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 28, 2024

The Trade Deadline is two days away but we've already had so many trades! Let's begin with Jazz Chisholm to the Yankees (2:15)! ... The Phillies acquired Carlos Estevez from the Angels (15:10)! ... Why did the Cubs trade for Isaac Paredes (21:10)? ... The Orioles acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays (31:24). The Phillies acquired Austin Hays (34:40). ... Jesse Winker is headed to the Mets (38:49). ... The Padres acquired reliever Jason Adam for a haul (41:47)! ... Danny Jansen is headed to the Red Sox (46:18). ... The Mariners acquired Yimi Garcia from the Blue Jays (50:47). ... We wrap up with smaller trades, the Yankees' lineup and the latest trade rumors (53:44). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Oh my, the trade deadline has been crazy already, and we still have two days left. Welcome into a bonus edition of Fantasy Baseball today. On Sunday, July 28th, I am Frank Sanfield, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. With so many trades going down, we figured it made sense to throw in this bonus podcast because if we save it for our normal weekend recap, we're looking at a two-hour podcast, and that is just not feasible. So we're going to fire things up now and talk about a lot.

of these big moves, some of the smaller ones as well. But let's just begin with Jazz Chisham. Oh my goodness gracious. That's jazz. Yeah, that would be jazz. Jazz in New York City, baby. The Yankees is a trade between you guys' teams. That's right, yeah.

A lot of emotion here. You could sit this one out, Scotia. Blue note. We'll be handling it. The Yankees, they actually did the thing. They acquired Jazz Chisholm for three prospects catcher Augustine Ramirez. middle infielder Jared Serna, and shortstop, Abraham Ramirez. And Jazz, having a solid season, 249 batting average, 13 homers, 22 steals, 730 OPS.

He has traded in some power and some exit velocity for improved plate discipline this season. 25% strikeout rate is a career best. But Chris, we will start with you, and we will talk about the fit for fantasy baseball, because this feels like a match made in heaven. Yeah, I wrote about like the dream. trade deadline outcomes. And this was one of them for fantasy because it really does seem like an absolute best case scenario for Jazz Chishol's skill set for what the Yankees need and for what he's likely to do in

New York City, which is hit a bunch of pullside home runs, bat leadoff for what should be a better offense than Miami's, at least certainly the, no, it's a better offense than Miami's. Yeah, even the bad. How many runs they've scored on this. season number one in baseball. But it's been a pretty mediocre offense for a little while, but certainly much better than Miami's.

And the great landing spot for a left-handed power hitter like Jazz. Presumably they are going to let him run still. You know, Anthony Volpe was running as the leadoff hitter. This is one of those teams, I believe, where like their stolen bases are heavily weighted towards the leadoff spot, which to a certain extent is because they don't have a lot of lead-off hitters and one of the ones that they do have, or they don't have a lot of speed guys, one of the ones they do have was hitting lead-off for much of the season. But yeah, I think Arrow definitely pointing up for Jazz Chisholm. To put some specifics on it, because obviously Yankee Stadium,

short portion right field, stat cast estimates that if Jazz Chisholm had played every game there this season, he'd have 19 home runs as opposed to the 13 that he actually has. Not that he's going to play every game of Yankee Stadium, but you know, he'd have a few extra home runs, which is not something you could say anytime the player moves from one venue to another. I think maybe the bigger impact, though, is just Chris referred to the change in lineup opposite ends of the spectrum here. Jazz Chisholm has stayed healthy this year.

He's done the thing he's never done before. And yet it feels like he's still kind of underwhelming in terms of fantasy output. that's largely because of his run and RBI production in that bad Marlins lineup. He's on pace for only 72 runs and 78 RBI. If I could talk, 72 runs and 78 RBI. I have to imagine the pace would be like 20 better for both if he had spent all year with the Yankees, at least 20 better for both. And so with that power speed combination, the likelihood of improved power,

I don't think it's a stretch to believe Jazz Chisholm could be a top 12 outfielder the rest of the way. Yeah, and just, you know, looking at Anthony Volpe, who batted leadoff primarily for the Yankees. I would guess he's had more played appearances as a leadoff hitter than anywhere else in the lineup. Yeah, 76 of his 105 games have come as the leadoff hitter. He's on, it's like a 90-run pace,

but that's also from a guy who now has a 304 OBP. So, you know, he's been, like, there was a stretch where Anthony Volpe was really good early in the season. There was a stretch much longer where he'd been pretty bad. And even still, he's been on like a 90 plus run pace. So I think that's the most exciting thing for Jazz is just the lineup context is significantly better to the point where he's scored, well, 46 runs this season. there's like an outside chance he just gets to 90 the rest of the way if he stays health at the top of that line.

He's going to be sitting directly in front of Juan Soto and Air Judge. You figure like, I don't know, half the time he gets on base, he might score a run. Yeah, and there are reinforcements coming too because John Carlos Stanton looks like he's going to be activated on Monday.

Anthony Rizzo, if there's anything left in the bat, I'm not entirely sure. I don't think we have much faith in that. But like the kind of, need him. Yeah. Because the Ben Rice experience has been a lot less fun since that three homer game. Yeah. No, that is that is absolutely factual on jazz chism. I'm not exactly sure where he's going to play. I mean, obviously he can play second base. He can play outfield. That would have to come at the expense of one of Glaber Torres or Alex Verdugo or there have been some whispers that jazz, they could try him out

at third base. They could try Glaber Torres out at third base and then jazz just play second base. Where do you guys kind of see this everything being configured in the Yankees lineup? Well, I'm glad you brought it up because one of the downsides to this trade is, okay, we finally had an opening for Jason Dominguez, who is back to playing in minor league games and has looked awesome there with Alex Verdugo slumping. You would think Domingas would take his place, but now Chisholm seemingly is taking the place of Verdugo. This is all assuming John Carlos Stan is going to be back soon.

Glabertores has struggled, as you've said. So there's a chance Jazz Chisholm could just bump him. Or I hadn't even heard that third base theory. But I will say that the Yankees brass specifically touted Jazz Chisholm's versatility when they made this move. So I don't think it's as simple as them just sticking him in the outfield. And Jason Dominguez has to wait his turn. Yeah.

And Glaber Torres does have games at third base in the minors, which he hasn't played since 2018. I was listening to the Yankees radio broadcast yesterday. So for whatever this is worth, Susan Waldman said that jazz Chisholm is a shortstop, so he can definitely play third base. I don't know how factual that is. But he was a shortstop at one point.

He wasn't a particularly good one. Exactly. Yeah. I do generally buy into the theory that a shortstop can play anywhere, though, if we want to say jazz chisholm. Yeah. Has that in his, his his lineage.

I don't know what word D is. But he has that in his past. Yeah, I feel like it would be easier for Glaber to move across the diamond given that he's been playing the infield. But I don't know. Torres was originally a shortstop too. Yeah.

Also not a very good one. So yeah. But, you know, look, we've got a bunch of guys including Dominguez, Jazz, Stanton. Judge has stayed healthy. this season.

Yeah. But there's a long track record. So this is one where I think over time, it will probably get settled in one way or the other, in a way that's probably not ideal for fantasy. But I have a hard time seeing a situation where Jazz Chisholm is sitting regularly, certainly. Yeah.

Overall, the arrow is pointing up for Jazz Chism, redraft, Dynasty Keeper Leagues. He's under contract through, well, arbitration eligible team control, through 2026. So presumably we'll be around with the Yankees for the next couple of years. So obviously that's good for his long-term value as well. We don't talk a lot about AL and NL-only leagues, but around the trade deadline, this is where it makes the most sense.

So Jazz going from the NL to the AL, obviously if you play in an AL-only league, if you have any fab left, I would say you're just emptying the clip on Jazz Chisholm, right? Yeah, I've got $13 left in A.L. Only Tao Wars, that's probably not going to be enough to get it. No. I don't think so. But I'm going to do it. And look, I'll also put 13 on Christopher Morel. And, you know, maybe that's enough to get one of them.

Probably not. It becomes a question of do you think this is the best player who's going to go from the NL to the AL at the deadline? And there are others being bandied about. Blake Snell, of course, looks to be Blake Snell again. And he's rumored to maybe be on the move wouldn't necessarily be to the AL. I think Jazz Chisholm is close enough to the best who's going to be moved, especially given the scarcities and the outfield that, yeah, I would empty the clip for him, as you say. Any thoughts, quick thoughts on the return here for the Marlins?

They get Augustine Ramirez, who's having a breakout season, 22 years old. He's a catcher slash first base slash DH, 269 batting average, 20 homers, 18 steals, and 862 OPS. He headlined the package, but then. Of course, there were two middle infielder, Cerna and Ramirez. That would be Abraham Ramirez. Scott, any thoughts here on the prospect return for Jazz? Augustine Ramirez is the most interesting one. He's, I think, universally considered the top 100 prospect now.

Show Good Power last year, too. It's like all fields power, steal some bases. I don't know that he's a catcher long term. And they did just acquire a first baseman in Davis and De Los Santos. so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. But yeah, if there's any prospect of value in this deal, I think it'd be Ramirez. I'm genuinely shocked that they got a guy as interesting as Ramirez for jazz. I don't know.

Maybe my expectations were a little too low, but like, baseball perspectives. If they were trading a reliever, you would have expected more. I was shocked how good what the return for AJ Puck was. That's what I'm saying. The relievers, I mean, even more so. We'll get to it, I'm sure. But Carlos Estevez, what the Angels got back for him. All relievers right now.

I mean, the reliever market is crazy for prospect return. So, yeah, I think the Marlins, they're doing well so far. It sounds like they're close to trading Tanner Scott. We haven't seen which team that is going to be yet. But obviously, making some moves, they moved out AJ Puck. They moved out Jazz Chisholm. And presumably we'll continue to move out other pieces. Josh Bell also placed on outright waivers.

today if anybody wants to take him. So it's going to be a rough couple of months in Miami. Super shredder. Yeah. Let's take our first break. And when we return, we will talk about that return for Carlos Estevez. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in.

Let's talk about the Phillies who acquired Carlos Estevez from the Angels for two pitching prospects and two pretty good ones, a breakout season from right-handed pitcher George Closson and left-handed pitcher Samuel Aldegari. And we knew Carlos Estevez would be moved, but this is a point. pretty intriguing landing spot here for all facets of fantasy. It's a pretty upsetting landing spot. Let's be honest. Jeff Hoffman has arguably been the best reliever in baseball.

We've been begging for the Phillies to move him into the role. And then they go out and acquire a guy with 20 saves who I don't, you know, I don't think any of us think Carlos Estevez is as good as Jeff Hoffman. But he does have closer experience. and Dave Dumbrowski said it wouldn't surprise me if he gets a lot of ninth innings. So I don't think the Jeff Hoffman thing is happening. I don't know that Carlos Estevez is just outright the Phillies closer, so he probably loses value in this deal too.

For what it's worth, he has been a lot better than I think people realize a 0.74 whip for Carlos Estevez this year. He's gone from being a big, a poor control guy to being an excellent control. guy. He's had some bad bit luck probably. The whip shouldn't be quite that low. 0.74, but he is, he is a talented reliever who I would say deserves to be in the ninth inning mix for most teams. It's just upsetting that he goes to this one

as much as we've been wanting the Hoffman thing to happen. Yeah, I guess saying intriguing was from the perspective that I have Carlos Estevez on a few fantasy teams. And I just assumed wherever he was going to go, he would not be the closer. I don't know why that was my assumption, but the fact that he's going to the best team in baseball right now and he's going to be in the mix for saves, I think it's actually still pretty good for his fantasy value. Probably not great for Jeff Hoffman and everybody else involved. But Chris, how do you see this Philly's bullpen breaking down? Do you think it's Carlos Estevez gets 70% of the says rest of the season? Hoffman

gets the rest and we could just drop someone like Jose Alvarado? Yeah, I think dropping Alvarado probably makes sense. I would guess the majority of them are going to go to those two guys, but this is a team over the past couple of years that has not really settled as much on one closer as we would like at any given point. Last season, when Jose Alvarado was amazing, it wasn't him as much as we had hoped. This season, Ovarado struggling, it hasn't been as much Hoffman. So, I wouldn't bet on this being a 90% situation where it's just there's one guy. But I don't know. Yeah, I would think Elstis, sorry,

gets the majority of the saves moving forward, given what they gave up for him. And this is another big change from AL to NL-only League. So if you play in NL-only and you're desperate for saves, you might be spending the rest of your fab to get Carlos Estevez on your fantasy team. What happens in the Angels bullpen now? Ron Washington said Sunday that Ben Joyce

will be the setup man to Luis Garcia, but several teams are showing interests in Luis Garcia, and I think it's still pretty likely that he will get moved as well. So, Scott, do you think Ben Joyce is kind of the Angels Reliever to roster right now in hopes that he is the closer post-trade deadline? Yeah, I'd guess so. I don't think he has to be universally rostered, but in leagues where saves are scarce. Joyce is the one I'd be looking toward as a fastball that peaks at 104.

Strikeout rate is a little lower than you'd expect considering, but it's a small sample. I don't know that I necessarily trust Ron Washington to install him as the closer because he just seems like one of those old school managers who prefers the experienced guy. Do they have any experience guys in the bullpen right now? Right, they may not, I don't know, I guess Matt Moore. It's the fact that he's defaulting to Luis Garcia over Joyce for now, though, does raise my concern a little bit. Ben Joyce's 15% rostered on CBS right now.

Chris, if you need saves, how would you rank all the names involved here? Carlos Hesvarez, Jeff Hoffman, Ben Joyce. Probably in that order. I think Joyce might have a better chance of getting saves than Hoffman, but Hoffman's a much better pitcher. So, I'm not

actually sure Ben Joyce is a very good pitcher. So, you know, as hard as he throws, the strikeout numbers have been, even in the minors, have not been as good as you'd think a lot of the time. This year they were, but before that, it had been pretty disappointing. We mentioned the return, and Scott, if you could touch on either of these prospects

here, I mean, the Angels getting George Cawson breakout season, 22 years old, 197 ERA, 0.90, whip, 89 strikeouts over 59 in a third, and then also Samuel Aldegari, who's a lefty, 22 years old, also having a pretty big season, lots of strikeouts there. Your thoughts on the return? Yeah, I think Claussen was the one who raised the most eyebrows here, given that he's been a trendy pitcher in prospect circles. He was a reliever in college who could not find the strike zone at all, and the Phillies made him a starter and made it so he was able to land his triple-digit fastball in the zone. It's a very impressive arsenal, obviously far down the minor league ladder,

and things could go askew from here. But it was a pitcher who Prospect Towns know well because he's been so widely discussed this year. So to see George Claussen moved in this deal for a rental reliever, I think was surprising to a lot of people. Let's get into another trade here. I think a pretty surprising one that came out here on Sunday. Esauk Paratus traded over to the Cubs,

who very clearly are, it doesn't seem like they're going for it. I mean, they're six games out of a wildcard spot. They're 10 games out in the division. And the return for Esoc Paredes was Christopher Morel and two prospects, Hunter Biggie and Ty Johnson. And looking at Paredes, I mean, he's having a fine season. He's 25 years old. He's under control for, I think, two or three more years. So it could just be, all right, the Cubs view him as a part of their future.

But he's batting 247, 16 homers, 793 OPS. I did just see this from Jason Stark that home runs by ballpark. It would be 19 in Tropicana 11 in Wrigley Field. Yeah, Riggily kind of. Not great. I saw, I can't remember who exactly said it,

but it was something like, it wouldn't be the worst. Yeah, it was Jared Seidler. I can think of a worse idea than putting Paredes in Wrigley Field, but only one putting him out to Camden Yards. It's a, it's not a worse hitters park overall.

the power alleys at Tropicana Field are significantly deeper than at Wrigley Field. But specifically for the part of the park where Issoc Paredes does 95% of his damage, it's 30 feet deeper, 40 feet deeper. 355 down the line and left field at Wrigley Field. Because if you're familiar with the outline, it goes back out.

The wall goes back out toward the lines And you look at Isok Peretti's spray chart. Like all the home runs are clustered around the left field foul pole. And so it's, yeah, you look at the data expected home runs by ballpark. He loses. I think I saw 13 over the last three years. He would have lost if he had played every game at Wrigley Field. So, it's always been like kind of a gimmick, Issock Peretti, his success.

just him having very limited raw power, but he's so good at just angling the ball right down the left field line to hit home runs. This seems like the sort of thing that could take that trick away and completely ruin him for fantasy purposes. I'm pretty worried about Isak Perrida's fate with the Cubs. And it makes it all of some more surprising

that they made this deal. I think their rationale was just, okay, Christopher Morel, he's kind of a butcher at their base. let's get a more sure-handed guy there. It's an interesting trade because neither of these teams are like in the thick of contention. They're not out of it either. And the primary pieces exchanged both have several years of control left, Morel and Paredes.

So it's kind of just like a challenge trade or, you know, I think the race were thinking upside and the Cubs were thinking sure-handedness at third base, like I said. But I don't know that the Cubs are going to be happy with this. deal in the long run. I think one of the bigger takeaways, and we'll get to the return, and obviously Christopher Morel, who's had, it's a bad season. I think it's also kind of a weird season for him, but Junior Caminero, Scott, that's the first thing that comes to my mind here is that, look, there are openings. Obviously, Tampa is transitioning towards looking at the future, and Caminero is having

a big July since returning from the IL, 289 batting average, five home runs, 1042 OPS at AAA. the only thing is, I'm not sure the raise will rush him because they want his rookie eligibility for next year. Or at least that's what I would presume. Yeah, I'm not sure either, but it depends on what they're thinking, right? If the raise are thinking, we're just kind of swapping out pieces, but we're not ready to pack it in yet, maybe they would call up junior common arrow and use up his rookie eligibility this year. But if they're not, if they're pretty much focused on 2025, this point, then it would make sense for them to wait until September.

He was only up for about a week, a little over a week last year. So if they wait until September, that they should be long enough. And Comonero will retain his eligibility for next year. But it's still good news for Commonero. Either way, you look at it, because the roadblock, like I said, Isok Perid is at several years of control left. The roadblock is gone now. And there's nobody standing in his way at third base anymore.

And, you know, the thing with the raise is they've traded, what, three key contributors for their current team, right? Eflin, Paredes, and Jason Adam. And Randy Rosarino. And Randy Rosarana. And my guess is Pete Fairbanks will probably be gone to. A Rosarena is the only one that they don't have like an obvious replacement in-house or received one for the trade. Or did they just get it? well I'm looking at Morel as the Paredes replaced right that's what I'm saying

so either oh as the Paredes replaced yeah either Paredes or a Rosarena Marela is replacing if common arrow is the Paredes replacement yeah then a Marell is there a Roseraine because I think there are I don't mean to interrupt your thought but I think there are a lot of parallels here between a Roserina and Christopher Morel who they just got in the Paredes deal but yeah my point is just that as far as like the Ray's packing it in I don't think any of these trades are. I think they're viewing it as everyone that they've gotten rid of was to a certain

extent replaceable and they can take a shot on some, you know, for the most part, high upside guys who are in the lower miners. So I get the thought process with all of these. Whether it works out, you know, I think at this point they're real long shots to make the playoffs, but it could still happen. Yeah, for some reason, I thought they were much further behind. The race three and a half games out of a wild card spot. So, yeah, if they do want to try and get back into it, maybe they do call up someone like

Junior Camerro. Caminero, 57% rostered on CBS. Scott, who would you rather stash just right now? Camerro or Kobe May. I'm going to say Cominero at this point. Okay. I think he's a better prospect, and I think the path is maybe even clearer. Let's talk about what the raise got in return for Esock Parade is.

Christopher Morel having a down season, he's batting $199. The power and speed is still there, 18 home runs, seven steals. He's got a 676 OPS. Batting average, a huge problem. Even though he's lowered the strikeout rate tremendously from 31% to 24.5%. But some of the batted ball stuff has led to a lower batting average. I think maybe there's some unluckiness there as well. And then some prospects, Hunter Biggie.

who could be the closer of the future. He throws hard, lots of whiffs there. So I think he's pretty interesting. And then a 22-year-old pitcher in Ty Johnson. Chris talked to me about the fit with Morel in Tampa Bay. And if you have any other thoughts on those prospects. Yeah, I mean, the thing with Morrell is, I don't know how much fit matters in theory.

It's a question of whether they can fix the underlying flaws in his game. And like you mentioned, the strikeout rate significantly improved this season. He's gone from 31% to 24.5%. The problem is the quality of the contact that he's making, he seems to have had to make sacrifices in a way that, on the whole, probably don't change his outlook all that much. He's better than a 199 hitter, I think. His XPA is 242.

It mostly just comes down to whether the Rays believe that they can, I don't know, tighten up his swing. I don't know the best way to put it. There's been some really good pieces on baseball prospectus this year about Christopher Morrell and how while he does a good job of meeting the ball out in front of the plate, which is what you want, if you're going to hit the ball hard and hit the ball to the pull side, he almost, he's too extreme in that regard. They had a stat this was back in like late June maybe where he had fouled like 12 pitches off his own foot or something this season, which is like a super high number.

And I think kind of shows the issue is that like he's like got the right ideas. He hits the ball hard. He gets out in front of it. He does the things you want. It's just whether it's the pitches he chooses to swing at, whether it's just a little bit off. He's not quite there. But it's easy to see how a team like the race would be able to talk themselves into figuring Christopher Morel out.

And if you have faith in the raise, development process, I don't think it's a bad idea to try to buy Christopher Morel right now in the hopes that they can work some of that magic. My concern for Morel is just that, okay, you could look at it. He's going to the race optimistically. They're good at player development. But pessimistically, they're bad at keeping players in the lineup. Well, yeah, they'll give up on a guy if they don't think it's going to work. Right. And so, Morel is an everyday player with the Cubs. I'm not totally confident he will be with the race because I'm not sure. they're willing to play him at third base. He has outfield experience, and you can hide a bad defender in the outfield easier. So maybe that's what they do.

Or maybe they stick him at DH, but it seems unlike the Rays to have a dedicated DH. I still think there's a chance to raise move someone like Yandi Diaz. They can move P. Fairbanks. I don't know if Christopher Morel has any experience at first base, but maybe you could stick them over there. I think if they went out and traded for Marell, they'll find a way to get him in the lineup.

but yeah, it is a possibility just knowing how they've handled other players in the past. I did want to, again, quickly just mention the name Hunter Biggie, that's B-I-G-G-E, and if the race move P-Fairbanks, they could be looking for someone to take over for saves.

And big numbers in the minors, 98-mile-per-hour fastball, big swing and miss, 19 career saves in the minor leagues as well, so I just wanted to throw that name out there. Let's talk about some of the moves the Orioles have made, and Zach Eflin was traded

over to Baltimore for three prospects, infielder Mac Horvath, a right-handed pitcher Jackson Baumeister and outfielder Matthew Etzel. And Eflin has taken a step back this season. He's looked more like the pitcher the rest of his career outside of his breakout outlier 2023 season.

But it's a 409 ERA, a 116 whip right around 7K per 9. The ERA estimators say maybe EFlin's been a little bit unlucky this season. But Chris, just looking at team context, obviously it's a really good ballpark. I do think there could be maybe a slight uptick and fantasy value for someone like Zach Eflin. Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, if you think based on the underlying skill set that Zach Eflin is a slightly above average pitcher rather than, you know, the borderline ace he looked like last season, you would expect a guy like that to get a big boost pitching half his games in Baltimore, good offense behind him, good defense behind him. So I think Arrow's pointing up for Zach Eflin. I'm not expecting him to all of a sudden get back to being a 27% strikeout rate guy like he was last season. But, you know, he's, it's been frustrating because the curveball usage has gone down. And it doesn't seem like the pitch has been significantly worse. I think the bigger thing, he's having more trouble getting into two strike counts.

And that's where Zach Eflin primarily ups his, uh, curveball usage. And so I think that's probably the biggest thing. Like his usage of the curve ball last year in two strike counts 33.6% of the time. This year it's 32.8% of the time. But his overall usage is down about six percentage points. So my read is that he's just not getting to those situations where he can use the curveball as much. Maybe he's throwing too many strikes.

Well, I think that's probably like 2.8% walk rate, probably too low. do think like you reach a point of diminishing returns with that but i don't think going to baltimore will change that right but i think you wouldn't expect the raise yeah to give up a pitcher that they thought they could tweak to make better and this was this was their biggest free agent signing in history zach afflin it worked out about as well as anyone could have hoped for last year it's been disappointing this year and they moved on they they sold low on him you could say so better situation in Baltimore, better run support, that'll help. But I, yeah, I'm with you.

I don't see Eflin being completely transformed by this move. Any thoughts on the prospect return here, Scott? Anything to add on Mac Horvath, Baumeister, and Matthew Edsel going over to Tampa Bay? It's not the most exciting group, which also doesn't speak well. of Eflin, Matt Corvath was a pick last year who was somewhat interesting to Prospect Towns, but he's been disappointing in the minors. Still probably the most notable name, Matt Corvath. But yeah, not the most exciting group.

The Orioles also made another move on Friday as they acquired Sir Anthony Dominguez and Christian Pache from the Phillies in exchange for Austin Hayes. And the Orioles continue to, they look to improve their bullpen and their defense. with this move. For Austin Hayes, the Phillies have already come out and said that he will be an everyday player for them. Brandon Marsh and Johann Rojas will split work in center field. Austin Hayes, no superstar, but if he's getting every day at bats in one of the best lineups in baseball, last year hit 275 with 16 homers, five steals at 769 OPS. Scott, do you have any interest in five outfielder leagues in Austin Hayes? I think it might be selling him a little bit short here,

because if you'll remember, Austin Hayes was trending toward more than that before they moved back the left field fence at Camden Yards. So in 2021, which was the last year with the old dimensions, Austin Hayes numbers at home, a 270 batting average 13 home runs, 852 OPS. That was in 65 games. He had 13 home runs at home before they moved back the left field fence.

obviously Philadelphia is a much better place to hit than the new Camden yards, particularly for a right-handed hitter like Austin Hayes. And I think that might be part of the enthusiasm to Phillies have for this acquisition. I think he could perform at a 2025 homer pace the rest of the way, potentially, and what's a really good lineup.

So, yeah, I mean, this trade when it happened, Austin Hayes to the Phillies is like, Okay, whatever, part-time outfielder. But the more I looked into it, the more I was like, this could actually amount to something for fantasy. I wouldn't add Austin Hayes as more than like a fifth outfielder in Roto for now. But I could see him performing more like a fourth or even borderline third. Yeah, Citizens Bank Park over the past three seasons for right-handed hitters

has the 10th best home run park factor 107. So about 7% better than league average. orio park at camden yards is the third worst at a 78 park factor for right-handed home run hitters so it's not a it's not the most extreme move you could make but it's pretty far on the extreme end in terms of a positive park factor shift for austin hayes last year austin hayes hit 16 home runs total if he played all of his games in camden it would have been 13 if he played all of his games in Citizens Bank Park, 23. So I think that's pretty intriguing there for Austin Hayes.

9% rostered someone that you can look at in five outfielder leagues. Let's take our final break. And when we return, we've got some smaller deals to talk about Jesse Winker. Jason Adam, we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's get into some of the other trades from the weekend. The Mets acquired Jesse Winker from the Nationals for right-handed pitcher Tyler Stewart. And Winker has had a big bounceback season, 257 batting average, 11 homers, 14 steals,

a 793 OPS looks to be a strong side platoon in a corner outfield spot for the Mets. Jeff McNeil back to second base, and we do get stocked down for some deeper league names, guys like Jose Iglesias and Tyrone Taylor. Chris, what do you think about this move for Jesse Winker? What happens when Starling Marte returns? Because it feels like maybe there's a bit of an outfield crunch there in New York.

One, I think it's stocked down for Jesse Winker, probably not going to play as much. I have no idea why he was running as much as he did this season. So I have no idea whether that will continue. But I'm going to guess that he will run less in a new situation. And as for what it means when Starling Marte returns, I don't know if Jesse Winker's still going to be healthy by the time Starling Marte returns. I don't know if Starling Marte is going to be able to return without a setback.

Right? Like what was the most recent update? Has he started running yet? I think he has. Yeah. Okay, like it seems like something will get figured out. Harrison Bader's had had some trouble staying healthy over the years. So my guess is Starling Marte comes back and plays pretty much every day.

And Bader and Winker are splitting time more than anything. But my real guess is that Bader and Winker don't really matter once Marte comes back. Scott, any thoughts here on Jesse Winker is 77% rostered? Obviously, lineup upgrade going from the next. Nationals to the Mets. And maybe this kind of fast-tracks Dylan Cruz, someone we spoke about on Friday. Yeah, I know Mark Zuckerman of Masson,

a Nationals beat writer, has kind of speculated that Dylan Cruz could be up at some point in the second half. The minor league production isn't very impressive, but the underlying data is strong, and he was the second overall pick last year. I don't know, I don't necessarily. know that he's going to be up for the nationals, but the more outfield openings they create,

the more likely that possibility. As for Winker, I don't know that I go as far as Chris. I think Winker could lose a little bit of playing time just in the respect that he'll almost never play against left-handers. He'd kind of already gotten to that point with the Nationals anyway. But I think they'll value having his OVP in the lineup, 375 OBP guy this year.

So I see it more of as a stocked down slightly situation. Maybe he goes from being a solid third outfielder in fantasy leagues to being like a borderline third outfielder now. Who would you rather have between Winker and Austin Hayes? Winker. Okay. Let's talk about the Padres who acquired Jason Adam from the raise for three prospects, Homer Bush Jr., J.D. Gonzalez.

and pitcher Dylan Lesko. This one really set out because entering the season, Lesko was regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Now, he hasn't performed and control has been a disaster for him, but still pretty surprising.

Again, it's just another big return for a reliever in this market right now, which is crazy. But Jason Adam, a big get for the Padres to help set up for Robert Suarez, having another great season, 249 ERA, 0.89 whip, over a strikeout printing,

17% swinging strike rate. I don't think anything really changes for Jason and Adam's value. He still has value in saves plus holds leagues. He will become available in NL only. Chris, anything stand out here for Jason, Adam? I think to me, the bigger takeaway, again, is this the return that the, that Tampa Bay actually got for him in this year. Yeah, like all these non-closer relievers getting legitimate prospects in return is pretty stunning.

But maybe Dylan Lesko isn't as big of a. legitimate prospect as we thought he was before the season. He's someone who, you know, 6.7 walks per 9 at high A, struggled with command last year as well. Maybe the race C, something that they can fix in him. But yeah, I would think Adam, look, it's a park upgrade. So you can note that. But outside of Saves Plus holds leagues,

I don't think he really matters unless something happens to Robert Suarez. It's, their patres are just such a, an interesting organization. They seem to have no confidence in their own ability to develop players. So if a talented player doesn't like stick right away, they're very quick to move on for whatever. And yet they seem to have no trouble replenishing their farm system either. So I feel like I read this somewhere. But they are so aggressive with their promotions of.

players that it almost feels like they're they're like trying to game the system like they know other teams have models that they use to value players and you see a uh an 18 year old or a 17 year old at double a their model your model is just going to immediately think that that player's amazing because they've got um salus and devrize is that his name yeah uh who are both super young for their levels but aren't really producing this season at their levels. And I wonder if like there's something to that where they're just like, it's almost like they're like trying to commit fraud. Like the rest of the league in trades.

Because they're so in, they're so intent on competing now that they're like trying to artificially inflate the trade value of their players. I don't know if that really works here because obviously they got a middle reliever for a high leverage reliever. Yeah, no, I mean, it wouldn't apply in this situation, but I've seen that speculated. I mean, Ethan Salas, the catcher,

who made it to AA at 17 last year. And like you said, he's been terrible this year. But I know the prospect evaluators rate him very high in large part because he is so young for his level. And it's just kind of a, maybe there's more to it than that, you know? I don't know. Yeah. They seem generally like a team that's really,

really hard to evaluate their prospects because of that. Yeah. Ethan Salas got nine games in at AA last year. He's played 77 games at high A this year, where he's betting 197 with two homers and a 576 OPS. So that is, that's weird. That's weird.

And there are things you could say about him that are positive beyond just he's young. But. Right. that seems to be the first place it starts. Look, he's 17. I guess now he's 18. And look how high he's made it. He must be. He must be a very talented prospect. So we'll see if Tampa Bay can get Dylan Lesko back on track. But again, he was someone who entered the season with tons of prospect pedigree. He was a first round pick in 2022 and still only 20 years old. So we'll see if Tampa Bay could get his dynasty value back on track. That is Dylan Lesko. Let's talk about the Red Sox who acquired. catcher Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays for shortstop Edinson Paulino, third baseman cutter coffee. Cutter Coffee and Cutter Crawford in the same organization.

That's interesting. And right-handed pitcher Gilberto Batista. And it sounds like the Red Sox wanted to upgrade their defense behind the plate. Connor Wong is, I believe, second percentile in framing. Not that Danny Jansen is amazing, but he is better than second percentile. He got off to a great start this season, came crashing back down to Earth, batting 212, with six home runs. a 671 OPS.

Lots of fly balls for Danny Jansen. Pulls the ball a lot, so maybe plays better in Fenway Park. But Scott, how do you see the Red Sox splitting playing time amongst their catchers moving forward? Connor Wong and Danny Jansen. Well, neither of them was like

outright number one guy anyway, so I'm not sure much changes for them, but it's just now occurring to me in this moment that Alejandro Kirk has the job all to himself. now finally in Toronto. And I know the shine is gone there

because he's been pretty bad the last couple years, but he still does some interesting things, makes a ton of contact. That's kind of the end of the last. Has in the past delivered good exit velocities, and you wonder if more consistent playing time

will help to rekindle that. He's still very young to get back to the age thing. Kirk still hits the ball hard, by the way. point six average exit velocity that that's good okay okay okay okay i'm checking from boston's perspective is Reese McGuire's already a really good defensive catcher or at least he rates out as a really good defensive catcher I cannot say that I have watched enough of Reese McGuire to

to have a strong opinion personally but you know that Connor Wong has a really good arm and that's about it behind the plate he he frames the ball extremely poorly and so if they want to do it improve the defense, they already had a solution there. I do wonder if it's just something where they they see Danny Jansen as someone who, because he hits the ball in the air so much,

because he pulls the ball so much, they think he's someone who can take a big step forward playing a Fenway Park. That, my guess would be it's more that than the defense. And, you know, with how Connor Wong's playing, it could give them a really good hitting duo, a catcher. in two catcher leagues how would you guys rank

Kirk Jansen and Connor Wong moving forward I think I'd go Jansen Kirk Wong but I really don't believe in Wong yeah

I mean it's it's not I'm gonna put Wong number one just because he's produced the best so far and in this range of the catcher rankings

that's I'll take my chances you know but I do think Kirk has intriguing upside and I in deeper dynasty leagues

you might want to give him a second look. You're right, the exit velocities are even better than I realize. 90.6 average 112.9 max, expected batting average 257. I think he's just one of those guys who only hits the ball hard on the ground. If I'm remembering. 25, though, I mean, there's still development that could happen there. Kirk, he's hitting well in July 295, but zero home runs. And I think a sub-700 OPS.

So we know he makes contact and he hits the ball hard. Yeah, there's a chance. Actually, his average X velocity on fly balls and line drives is 95.4 miles per hour. That's actually 51st in baseball out of 340 players with at least 100 plate appearances. That's actually really good. So I guess he just doesn't hit the ball. What? I mean, it's one of those ones where it kind of does seem like he should be a lot better than he is.

And I'm not exactly sure. Reps, baby. Give them the reps. hasn't been. Yeah. Again, that is Alejandro Kirk, who should see more playing time moving forward with the Blue Jays. Scott, any thoughts here on the prospect return? Anyone stands out? Edinson, Paulino, Cutter Coffee, and Gilberto Batista. I mean, I'm familiar with a couple of the names. I'm not going to sit here and speak glowingly of any of them. I think we could just move on. Okay. The Mariners acquired Jimmy Garcia from the Blue Jays for outfielder Jonathan Class A and catcher Jacob Sharp.

And Garcia having a great season, 261 ERA, a 0.77 whip, 12.8K per 9. He helps fortify the Mariners bullpen. I don't think he's very likely to get saves, although, look, Scott Service has kind of done some mix and match stuff in the past. So maybe he gets like three or four saves the rest of the season. But I think Andrus Munoz is pretty clearly the closer. Garcia could still be useful in saves plus holds leagues. I think the other side of this is more interesting. What happens with the Blue Jays?

Chad Green is still there for saves for now. I think it's pretty likely that he gets traded. But if Chad Green has moved, Scott, who do you think would be next up for saves? Someone like Eric Swanson, they have lefty Hennis-Cabrera. What are your thoughts? Well, I haven't looked at it yet. I know Eric Swanson's been good in the past, so I'd have to see how he's doing.

But it does, you know, I tweeted about this right after the Gimi Garcia trade happened. Oh, some clarity here. We know Chad Green's going to stick in the role. And at the time, it was like, no, it sounds like he's going to the Phillies. And then they got Carlos Estevez. So I don't know what's in the works for Chad Green. It does seem likely he'll be moved just given the relief market. Why would the Blue Jays hold on to him?

Yeah, it looks like Swanson's been terrible this year. So it probably wouldn't be him. Yeah, maybe Genesis Cabrera. If there isn't, it's one of those situations, though, where if there isn't an obvious air, if there's not an error apparent, then they probably just kind of throw everybody at it and see what sticks.

The return here for Jimmy Garcia, Class A, a 22-year-old outfielder. We've seen up with the Marlins, Mariners, excuse me, a few times. He's put up some very interesting numbers in the miners. This year, 10 homers, 26 steals, and 856 OPS at AAA. Last year, 20 homers.

79 steals. So I do wonder, Chris, in five outfielder leagues, if you need steals, maybe Class A makes an impact at some point in the second half. Yeah, it's just a question of where he plays, right? Because they've got Springer and right,

Varsho and Center. I guess they could put him in left field, but, you know, this, it kind of feels like they're like a Justin Turner trade away from really having, like, a spot for, Class A right now.

I don't know if you guys feel the same way. Yeah, I know that they put Kiermeyer on waivers, but he wasn't claimed. So he's still on the team. He's still playing. He's going to retire at the end of the season, actually. So I just wonder if maybe he could just get, I don't know, dropped off the roster and that's how Class A gets an opportunity in the outfield.

Again, we haven't seen anything from him in the majors yet, but the minor league numbers are pretty interesting. Some smaller trades that went down, we could just kind of run through some of these. You guys let me know if any of the other. these matter at all, but the Red Sox acquired James Paxton for infielder Moises Boulevard. Does that matter? No. I mean, it's a long way from mattering.

I did see that Cooper Criswell was moved to the Red Sox bullpen, so I guess if you were streaming Criswell, you probably can't do that anymore, James Paxton into the Red Sox rotation. The Mets acquired Ryan Stanick from the Mariners for outfielder Ryland Thomas. The Cubs acquired Nate Pearson from the Blue Jays for infielder. Josh Rivera and outfielder Yohendrick Penango and a Pearson could there be anything there?

They're probably still going to use him as a reliever, right? I just wondered maybe they try and develop him as a starter again, but probably not. I don't think there's any chance he really holds up as a starter. So for me it's more can he emerge as the high leverage

reliever that he has flashed in the past? He hasn't really done it consistently but there are really good tools there. He throws hard. He's got a good splinter that he added this year, I think. So I could see him potentially getting into the mix in the back end of the bullpen if he pitches well.

And the Brewers acquired reliever Nick Mears from the Rockies for right-handed pitcher's Bradley Blaylock and Eugenier Herrera. I probably butchered that name, so I apologize. So here's a Nick Mears anecdote that I just saw before we went live. A player who he was pitching against told one of his teammates on the Rockies that he was tipping his pitches. And that is how he figured out. I guess the Rockies couldn't figure that out themselves. But someone that the Rockies were playing did.

So maybe he, he's got like a three ERA at home and like a seven ERA on the road this year, which is very odd as well. probably doesn't matter, but that's my fun, Nick Mears fact. We do have the Yankees lineup for Sunday night baseball. Jazz Chism is in it, batting fifth and playing center field for the Yankees.

I think they left Verdugo up there at the top because he's hit better, a little bit better recently, and he's facing Boston, so I think they're trying to go for that revenge factor or whatever it might be. But my guess is, after today, we probably see Jazz Chisholm up at the top of that lineup.

But it could be wrong about that. We'll see. Some latest rumor. that we are hearing. The Yankees were linked to Pete Fairbanks on Saturday. The Royals are interested in Luis Renhifo and Taylor Ward. The Brewers interested in Eric Fetty. Both the Yankees and Padres are interested in Blake Snell following his 15 strikeout performance on Saturday. We will talk about that on tonight's podcast. The A's apparently are reluctant to trade away Brent Rooker. The Orioles are still looking to make moves. Ken Rosenthal listed

Jack Flaherty, Yusay Kikuchi, Blake Snell, and Frankie Montas as potential fits. All right, guys, lots of trades, any closing statements or anything that we didn't touch on or any other rumors that you've seen that you want to mention before we sign off. Jack Flaherty, Blake's now and Frankie Montas is very much a one of these things is not like the other trio. I know you said Kukuchi was also in there, but that takes away from my joke. Yeah. All right. Well, we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to a special trade edition of fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify and we will be back again later tonight with our normal weekend recap,

and we will see you that. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.