Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Trevor Story to the Red Sox! Jorge Soler to the Marlins! - Emergency Podcast (3/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 20, 2022

Finally, Trevor Story has signed and he's headed to the Boston Red Sox (0:30). What should we expect from Story outside of Coors Field? Where does he rank? ... Also, Jorge Soler signed with the Marlins (7:31)! What does this do for his Fantasy value? 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. We had a few more Domino's fall in free agency. Let's get you caught up on the latest. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Sunday, March 20th. Frank Stamphill joined by Chris Towers here to break down Trevor's Story to the Red Sox and Jorge Solair to the Marlins. Trevor's story to the Red Sox. Six years, $140 million is the contract.

And Chris, obviously we never want a hitter to leave Corse Field. But going to Fenway as a right-handed batter, joining that lineup in that division of ballparks, I think this is probably the best possible landing spot for Trevor Story. What do you think this does for his fantasy value? Yeah, I mean, I don't want to say it's the best possible landing spot because apparently the Red So, or the Rockies were involved in negotiations with Trevor Story up to the end. And according to one report that I saw they were willing to go to a higher level or to a higher dollar amount than the Red Sox ultimately signed Trevor Story for.

So obviously returning to Colorado would have been in the ideal for Trevor's story. But yes, Fenway Park is absolutely the second best location he could have ended up in. Fenway is not a great place for power hitting overall, despite the short left field because it's got a high wall. But in terms of batting average and Babb up in particular, Fenway Park does have the the second highest park factor among all parks and baseball outside of court or beyond course field. So it's not going to, you know, I don't think Trevor's story is going to remain a $290-ish hitter like he has been for much of his career in Colorado. But this should help him avoid the worst case scenario where, you know, he lands somewhere and ends up being like a 240 or 250 hit 50 hitter, which I think was a possible outcome.

I don't think that's going to happen now. Yeah, he is a fly ball heavy. hitter. So in Fenway, someone who obviously pulls the ball as a right-handed batter, even if those balls don't go out as home runs, they're hitting off the green monster and those are turning into either a long single or a double. So you're right. I think that should help with BABIP and batting average. And it makes me feel a little bit better about the overall stat line. So Chris, what are you projecting right now? If your expectations for Trevor Story this upcoming season, I thought looking at last year, he hit 251, 24 homers, 20 steals, I thought that that was like a fair

projection outside of course, but I think he might actually be able to do better now in Fenway. Yeah, I think, you know, last year was such a weird year because he had a bab up under 300. It was the first time he'd been below 332 in his career. That's not what you expect a course field. And if he had gone back there, obviously, I think you expect a 280 batting average or something closer to that. In Fenway, I think maybe something more like 265 to 270, 28-ish homers, a bunch of runs in a heart. high because it's a great lineup. The question is how much will he run? And that's one thing that we've talked about is if he goes somewhere else and he's not quite as productive as an overall

hitter, does that mean he'll run a little more? I'm not 100% sure on that, but I do expect him to be a strong five category contributor. He probably won't be a plus in batting average like I would have expected if he was in Corse Field, but I don't think he'll be a nothing there. So, you know, Boston's been pretty low end when it comes to stolen bases. They attempted

they had 40 steals last season. That was the second fewest in baseball. How much of that is, you know, the personnel that they have. I'm not sure who you would actually expect to run for Boston at this point. So, you know, that'll be an interesting thing to see. But

yeah, I'm hopeful that will still get, you know, 25 to 30 homers, 15 to 20 steals, you know, potentially 200 plus combined runs an RBI from Trevor Story. According to Stackass, Trevor Story has an 89th percentile sprint speed and he has 85 steals since the start of 2018. That is the eighth most in baseball. He led the NL in the COVID shortened season with 15. So, you know, he's, he's a very good source of stolen bases. And then, you know, in 2020, Zander Bogartz did steal 8 in 56 games. So that's like a 20 plus steel pace,

which is actually a really good number for Zander Bogart's. Mookie Betts was obviously a pretty good stolen base source when he was with Boston. Andrew Ben and Tendi would steal some bases. So I'm hopeful that they'll continue to let him run. And 20 steals isn't out of the question. All right. Last season, Trevor's story finished 56th overall in Roto.

he was top 12 in each of the previous two full seasons. So 2019 and 2018, he's a strong points league player as well. 3.1, 3.6, 3.7 fantasy points per game the last three years. Chris, where does he slot in now? In terms of shortstop rankings, we should mention he's going to play second base for the Boston Red Sox. Obviously, they have Zander Bogarts. Bogarts can opt out after next season. So this is an insurance play for the Red Sox.

But as of now, Trevor Story will play second base. He'll gain that eligibility. he'll have the dual eligibility, but where does he rank for you? Where does he slot in amongst these second, these shortstop rankings? As of now, he's a seventh shortstop off the board. His ADP is 40.4. There are six short stops going within 17 picks of each other.

Semyon, Bogart's, Tim Anderson, Trevor Story, Wanderfranco, Francisco Lindor. So there's a lot of names there to differentiate. Yeah, and I think he's, I have him seventh before this signing, but the difference between him, And number four, Zander Bogart's, is seven spots in the overall rank. So it wouldn't take much for him to jump.

That said, I don't know if I'm willing to move him ahead of. My order is probably a little different. I think Wander Franco is probably, is he ahead of him in ADP right now? He is just, because I've got six spots behind him. Yeah, so I've got Zanderberg out to 35, Corey Seeger at 38. I'm much higher on him than the consensus. Tim Anderson at 39, Trevor Story at 42. So it wouldn't take much for me to move him ahead of Corey Seeger.

And it's very possible I'll end up doing that. But for right now, I'm going to leave Trevor Story at number 7, 42 overall. And we'll see how I feel in the coming days. I want to see what some of the projection systems have for him playing in Fenway Park. But my initial reaction is, look, he remains a very, very high-level player and one of the best shorts. You know, one of the best players at one of the best positions. He's solidly in, I think, the second tier at the position, and it's a big tier. Yeah, I'm pretty excited about Trevor's story here, this landing spot.

I have him as my fourth rank shortstop in Roto. So just ahead of Zander Bogart, it's ahead of Francisco Lindor, just behind Tim Anderson. And then in head-to-head points, I have him six. So I drop him down a little bit. Those steals, I mean, they just really help you. A 25 Homer 20 steel guy. I mean, that's really valuable in the Roto slash category. format. In a points league, I have him

behind Wander Franco, behind Marcus Semyon, some plate discipline issues there. Sure. But overall, still like Trevor's story quite a bit. Let's talk about Jorge Soler to our Miami Marlins. No, you're Miami Marlins, Chris. Three-year, $36 million deal, and he was

not great with the Royals last season. But then went over to the Atlanta Braves, and he turned it all around. 55 games with Atlanta, 269 batting average, 14 homers, an 882 OPS, and the plate discipline improved tremendously. 12% walk rate during that time, 18% strikeout rate. And according to Stacast, Soler hit 27 home runs last year, that would have been 36 in Marlins Park. So Chris, like the power

that Jorge Saler possesses, I just don't think it matters what ballpark he plays in. So now he goes to a team where he's going to play every day. The lineup obviously is very questionable. What do you think about this for Jorge Saler's fantasy value? Yeah, I mean, Marlon's park is not. Not a Lone Depot park is not a great place to hit. But Kaufman Field in Kansas City was probably one of the worst parks in baseball for right-handed power. You look at the park factors and it rates out consistently as one of the worst, actually worse than Marlins Park. So if anything, not a park downgrade for Jorge Saler, probably an upgrade. But, yeah, when you're talking about someone who hit 48 home runs at Kaufman Stadium, Coffman Stadium in 2019,

if he's right, if he's locked in, it doesn't matter where he's playing. And we've seen stretches where Jorge Salara has just been absurdly locked in. We saw it in that, you know, particularly the second half of the 2019 season, we saw it in the second half of 2021. Consistency has been an issue. In the postseason, too. He was awesome. Postseason.

Yeah, yeah. And, you know, consistency has been an issue for him in terms of, you know, both the results, but also his approach, you know, the strikeout rate. has fluctuated in the second half of 2019. I remember one of the reasons Scott really liked him heading into 2020 is because he had cut his strikeout rate from, you know, that 28% range to a more league average range. And we saw him do the same in the second half of last season when he got to the Braves. And so how much of that can he sustain moving forward? In 2020, it was above 30%. So it's just, it's really hard to know who Jorge Saler is, even though he's, you know, going

to be 30 years old and he's got, or he is 30 years old and he's got 2,600 plate appearances in his career. There's still a lot of different versions of him that we've seen. I think the safe assumption is probably something like a 260 batting average and 30 plus homers, but there's a lot of, there's a wide error bar on both of those numbers. Well, I guess the home runs, there's probably not as long as he's playing every day. He's going to probably hit 30 plus homers. But yeah, he crushes the ball. And so if he can keep the strikeout rate in the 25% range, he's probably going to have a really good season even in Miami. The RBI and run numbers aren't going to be great. And, you know, that'll be impacted by the fact that he just doesn't make a ton of contact as well.

But he's actually a better on base percentage guy than I think he gets credit for because he does walk a decent amount. I think his walk rate has been, you know, in like the 9%, actually 11% range, basically every year since 2016. So, you know, there will be opportunities for him to get on base and score runs. But, yeah, I think if you're looking for an overall line projection, I think something like 250, 260, 30 to 35 homers, 90 to 100 RBI, 80 to 90 runs. Like, if he does that, that's going to be a very valuable player. And, you know, it's the Marlins.

He's got an opt-out at the end of this season. If he's having a good season and the Marlins are out of it by July, he could also get traded to a much better team because there's a good chance he'd opt out in that situation. So, you know, the ballpark and lineup only matter if he's in the ballpark and lineup all year. And there's no guarantee that that will be the case. So not the best landing spot for Jorge Saler, but probably a better park than he was in before at least. All right, Jorge Saler, the 53rd outfielder off the board, according to fantasy pros. The ADP is 187.8. Chris, would you rather have Jorge Soler or Marcel O'Zuna?

I would rather have O'Zuna. We have seen, I think there's similar power potential for them, but we have seen better batting average from O'Zuna. I probably do need to move Soler up, though. I've had him in like the 45 range and outfielder, and I'm going to go ahead and move him up to, we'll get him right behind Marcelo Zuna, who might be too low as well.

I think I have them in a similar range as well. I have Ozuna as my 31st outfielder. I have Soler at 37. How about Jorge Soler versus his teammate? Evisa El Garcia. I just moved Jorge Saler ahead of Obisail Garcia. I just think he's a better bet for power. Obviously, O'Garcia should be a better bet for batting average.

And I don't think he'll be bad in power, but you're probably looking at 20 to 25 versus, you know, potentially upwards of 40 homers for Jorge Salar. So I just think, you know, that kind of gap does push Jorge Salar ahead. All right. Last one here. Jorge Saler versus his former teammate, Eddie Rosario. I think Saler is definitely better than Rosario.

I'm not a big Eddie Rosario fan. I just, he feels like kind of a jag to me. How dare you? Yeah, I know. I also just, he's one of those players who like, I also, like his real life value, I think is not that great because he's a pretty bad defensive player. And so I think there's always a risk with him that he could end up being a fourth outfielder

if things go poorly. And so, you know, that that risk isn't there for Horace Sillair, at least not with the Marlins. And so I do think that gives him both a higher floor and just a higher ceiling because he's a much better powerheader. Yeah, I actually liked Rosario. And I would take Jorge Saler ahead of him as well. Rosario, bad OBP, bad defender. But he's just kind of a compiler, right?

At the end of the season, you look up and it's like any Rosario just has, you know, 25 homers, eight to 10 steals, RBI, runs are there. He hits 260, 270. And he's fine. He just kind of compiles his way to good fantasy seasons. So I like Rosario, but I will take Jorge Saler over him as well. I think the upside is higher, especially in the power department.

We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again later on tonight. Bye-bye.