Fantasy Baseball Today - Utility-Only Hitters, OBP Risers/Fallers & FYPD Rankings! (3/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 4, 2022

Join our FBT March Madness Bracket- cbssports.com/FBTbrackets What kind of dilemmas can you run into when drafting utility-only hitters (1:50)? ... Don't sleep on Gavin Sheets (5:40)! ... What should you expect from Shohei Ohtani, the hitter (7:55)? ... What about Ohtani, the pitcher (16:35)? ... Franmil Reyes is one of the most projectable power hitters in the game (21:38). ... Is Nelson Cruz done (26:15)? ... Which players rise the most in OBP leagues (33:32)? ... Which players fall the most in that format (41:33)? ... We wrap up with Scott's first-year player draft rankings for those in dynasty leagues (46:35). 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome in to fantasy baseball today on March 4th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White, and we have quite the Mishmash. I was trying to find another word, potpourri, smorgas board, and I went with Mishmash on today's podcast. We've got utility-only bats. We didn't get to those on our position previews.

We're not going to do a whole position preview for just those bats. There's only three of them, but we'll talk about those today. We've got AB-O-B-P. I was going to write ADP. Not yet. ADP risers and followers is next week. OBP risers and fallers, who is better and who is worse in that format, some overlap from

yesterday's podcast. We did points leagues versus roto standouts, and then we will wrap up the show with Scott's first year player draft rankings for those in Dynasty League. So we're all over the place. What's going on, Scottie? Hey there. Hey there. Doing good.

How are you doing? I'm doing all right. And we're going to start with those utility bats. And it includes Shohei Otani, friend Milraeus, and Nelson Cruz. And Scottie, we were talking beforehand, and you had a dilemma yourself in your TGFBI League, which involved Nelson Cruz. Yeah. Yeah, we can talk about that. Sure.

So, you know, we've made the point a few times on the podcast that compared to last year where there was a ton of DH-only bats, there are only three. There's actually a fourth worth talking about, but there are three that are going to get drafted in virtually all leagues. And so that puts, that makes it say you don't have to be so concerned about filling that utility spots so early in the draft because, you know, obviously it's unlikely you're going to want to draft a second utility only guy. But obviously there are still other situations where the inflexibility of a DH-only guy might cause you to steer clear. And that did happen for me in TGFBI in round 13, which is about the 180 range. Nelson Cruz was still there. Nelson Cruz was there five rounds after Frommel Reyes was taken. And I still have an opening at utility.

So it seemed like a good time to take him, right? The production he's provided over the years, around pick 180? I mean, it seems like a pretty obvious pick. Except, if you'll remember from what I've said about my TGFBI team already, I began my draft with Vladimir Guerrero and Freddie Freeman, two first basemen that aren't coming out of my lineup and aren't gaining eligibility anywhere else. So if I took Nelson Cruz for a utility-only guy,

also not gaining eligibility anywhere else, those three would be fixed to my lineup all season, in a deep league where there are no trades, so that it would make for a situation where I couldn't draft any more corner infielders, right? None of those guys are ever coming out of my line at barring an injury. And if I wanted to draft two more middle infielders, that wouldn't be a possibility either. It just narrowed my options so much that I went with a lower ceiling outfielder,

who may have a higher floor, actually. That's a similar floor, I guess, and Hunter Renfro, who we know I like. I went with him instead of Nelson Cruz, even though I rank Cruz higher. So that's a situation where, yeah, I feel like that limited eligibility really might cause you to steer clear of a player

whose production seems to be worth the draft pick otherwise. And I think it was the right call. I think it was the right call. I mean, you don't know what's going to go wrong during the season, but you can be confident something will go wrong. And if your best hope of repairing that problem is another corner infielder, and there's just no place to put them. And again, this is a league where you can't make any trades.

You're just screwed. So you said Nelson Cruz was available in the 180s, huh? His ADP on fantasy pros is 152. so he was available for quite some time. Same thing happened to me, but with Fran Mill Reyes, actually. So another player we're going to talk about today, his ADP on Fantasy Pros is 113.8. He lasted to me until the end of round 12

in a 15-team league, pick 179. So I jumped all over it, and then Nelson Cruz actually went two picks later. So right after I selected Fran Milraeus, Nelson Cruz was up next. And I've got some pretty interesting stats on Nelson Cruz. he might not be done yet. Scott, you referenced a fourth utility-only bat

that we should know. It's Gavin Sheets. Gavin Sheets. Okay, yeah. I know roster... I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more attention from... I haven't seen him get any attention anywhere

throughout the draft prep process. And I think he's pretty interesting. He's got a sweet swing, man. I remember one majestic home run that he hit last year and, man, it's so obvious in my mind. I remember it like it was yesterday. He's got big power.

And Ross, the resource actually has him kind of platooning with Andrew Vaughn. Well, you know, see what else happens. I mean, everybody's like, okay, yeah, out of Vaughn, there was Andrew Vaughn. There was some,

the production wasn't there as a rookie, obviously, but there were some good signs and, you know, post-type sleeper, why not take a shot on him? Like, Gavin Sheets might be the one who gets more of bats between the two. That's how it was down the street. stretch last year.

Finding at bats for Andrew Vaughan was a problem all season long, but Sheets being a left-handed hitter, it was less a problem for him. And last September, since I guess we're getting into it now, when he started getting that more consistent playing time, Gavin Sheets in 25 games, hit 282 with five home runs,

an OPS, around 900. I'm pretty sure it was a more productive month than Vaughn had all year. So, I mean, just in terms of pure talent, I agree, Vaughn's the way to go. If Sheets is looking to be the more productive right out of the gate and him being the left-handed hitter versus Vaughn batting righty, I mean, Sheets could actually end up being more valuable in fantasy. All right. Well, don't tell Chris that, because I know,

Chris is very excited about Andrew Vaughn. The ADP for Gavin Sheets is 386.3. So a name to remember in these deep 15-team leagues, A-L-only for sure. And unlike those other three, I feel pretty confident Sheets is going to become eligible somewhere else eventually. More likely the outfield than first base, but first base is in the mix as well. All right, Skye.

Well, let's break down these util-only bats, and we'll start all the way up top. Show Hey, O'Tani. We've talked about him a lot this off-season. We haven't actually broken down. what he did. We've talked more about, you know, how to use him. What's the best way to utilize him in fantasy baseball? But let's actually look into the player, Otani, and what he did last year. 18.6 is the ADP on fantasy pros, which is kind of surprising, Scott, because that's more like

his ADP in a points league. So normally goes in the middle of a second round in a points league, whereas in really any type of categories league, Roto, heads head categories, Otony's a first round pick. I typically don't see him fall outside the top 12 and that's probably what it should be. And a reminder on Otani on CBS, he is just one player. So you have to choose each week what you want to use him as,

whether it's a hitter or a pitcher. I would say 98% of the time. You are going to use him as a hitter unless he somehow winds up with two starts in a week as a pitcher or if you really just need pitching stats at the end of the season. Let's say you're doing well in your offensive categories

then maybe you'll use Otani there. But more often, than not. And they space out as starts as a pitcher so that it's almost impossible for him to get two starts anyway. In fact, sometimes it'll appear he's lined up for two starts and then they'll bump him back again. I'm not sure it ever happened last year that he made two starts in the same week.

Yes. And it's virtually impossible that he'll gain outfield eligibility. He did last year because there would be games where he would pitch in a National League park and then they would switch him to the outfield so that he could stay in the game. as a hitter and if there's a universal dh there's just no reason for that to happen so uh it's no i don't think that has to be um i don't think it has to be an nl park let me double check that but i think that was happening in a l parks too because they couldn't move him from pitcher like they'd lose the dh spot if they right okay got you so even even in those a l games they had to move

him to the outfield if they wanted to keep his batten line. Yeah, I'm confirming it now in the AL games. He was also moving from pitcher to outfield. That makes sense, actually. Yeah, because if there's games where, you know, he just left to start early, if he just didn't have it, right? They probably want to keep his bat in the lineup. All right, so forget what I just said. Anyway, he finishes the fourth overall player in Roto last year. He averaged 3.6 fantasy points per game. That was 10th best in that format, the 10th best hitter in that format. And he was just amazing. 257 batting average, 46 homers, 103 runs, 100 RBI. 26 steals over 158 games, managed to stay healthy.

Otani does strike out quite a bit, 29.6%, but he also walks a ton, 15% walk rate. He had a 372 OBP, absolutely crushes the ball, crushes both lefties and righties. I think the biggest takeaway, Scott, is that he did struggle in the second half. He had 229, 839 OPS, the ground balls were up,

and of course the home run to fly ball ratio regressed, but I think it was always going to regress. It was like 38% in the first half. So I think that was always going to happen. Yeah. Now, that's a fair point. And look, that striking out as much as he does leaves a narrow margin for error. His actual stats weren't so different from his expected stats.

In fact, his expected stats were even better than his actual stats. So stat cast says he deserves everything he did at the plate. Obviously, he had to impact the ball. really hard with an insane barrel rate. I mean, his barrel rate was 22%. 15% is a good barrel rate. He led baseball. Yeah, yeah.

So, you know, barrel rate, some players are just really good at barreling up the ball and maintain that year after year, but it's not always the stickiest of the metrics. So whether or not Otani can deliver quite at that, level again, I think it remains to be seen. And then there's also, of course, the risk of just usage, him being on the field so often. He managed to do it last year, started virtually every game when in previous years, remember, they were sitting him the day before he pitched, sitting him the day after he pitched.

He was really just a part-time. But he managed to play every day and obviously produced huge numbers. and the fact that he's among the best power hitters in the game and also among the best base dealers, I would say. There aren't many who exceeded 30 last year, so getting to 26 is a pretty big deal, and it's legit. He's very fast. Like that combination of 62 home runs and stole, or 72, excuse me,

72 home runs and stolen bases, there's no way you can let that slip to round two in a roto league. And yet he does feel like one of the riskiest first rounders just because there's so many ways you could see it going wrong in addition to the fact

that he's utility only. I don't want to... Utility and pitcher, but... Yeah. I don't want to speak for everyone else, Scott, but the reasons why I haven't found myself drafting Otani yet is the fact that he is utility only.

It just, it feels like you're chasing other positions for the rest of your draft, or at least it has for me. and the fact that he's going to be more prone to injury just because he's hitting and pitching, right? There's just more things that can go wrong for him that way. So I would take the top five hitters over him, you know, Tatee Turner,

Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero. I personally would take Bo Bichette and Bryce Harper over him, but after that, Otani's the next hitter for me. That's where I think the debate is between those. three, Bichette Harper and Otani. Another reason I find I don't like drafting Otani early in a

category's league is because I like getting batting average early. Basically, the only two first rounders that aren't going to stand out on batting average are Jose Ramirez, who of course has the

position scarcity thing going for him. And then Otani, who definitely doesn't have the position scarcity thing going for him. So I don't like the feeling of playing catch-up and batting average the rest of the draft, because that's a category that really needs to be filled early. I think even beyond stolen bases, batting average, you want that taking care of early. So that's another reason why I think I'm with you, and I'm starting to lean toward taking Harper and Bichette ahead of Otani. but I'm not totally sure yet.

I mean, if Otani is everything as a hitter that he was last year, he will be more valuable than those two. I feel pretty confident saying that, but it's a big if. It's a medium-sized if. Yeah, let's see. Actually, so Boba Shett was better than Otani last year in Roto. The counting stats were tremendous.

You know, 121 runs scored. He was second in baseball. Yeah, all the runs in RBI. And the batting average, right? But I don't know. I mean... 257. Otani,

46 home runs versus 29. Yeah. I mean... Scott, I think you always, you always downplay the batting average,

which is what I've noticed with Tim Anderson, which like, when I tell you where Tim Anderson finished, you're like, really, that happened? It's the batting average

difference. The thing about a player's overall roto rank is like, it's, it's how valuable he was is really dependent on how the rest of your team's build is, right?

So it's not as straightforward as, oh, he finished 10th in points leagues because, you know, points are points or points or points. But in Roto leagues, what he delivered, you know, it's just you have to consider how his stats fit into whatever build you're likely to have in a Roto league. Right. And so that makes it more complicated. Yeah. So I think if you just look at what they did last year, I would expect more batting average from Bobauchette, less power, similar speed, probably similar counting stats if they both stay healthy. So it's really the power versus batting average, which is what you're asking yourself in Bashet versus Shohei Otani. Scott, let's quickly talk about the pitcher Otani as well, because I think there are a lot of leagues where he is two separate players. He's the hitter and he's the pitcher. And you have him ranked SP 26 in your roto ranks. I have him 33rd. And Chris actually has him all the way up.

at SP 17. 318 ERA for O'Tani last year, 109 whip, 156 strikeouts over 130 and a third innings pitched. He throws four different pitches at least 12% of the time, including a splitter that had a 25% swinging strike rate. And if you remember, Scott, he was fantastic. His final 11 starts, Otani last year, 2.82 ERA, a 73 strikeout to nine walk ratio. He went six plus in nine of his final 11 starts. So I don't know if we can expect that year over year, but man, he was fantastic in the second half of the season. Yeah, and the start by start was terrific.

Like he was consistently going deep into games. He was delivering ace caliber production, just not, not with a lot of, not with the consistency of a normal starting pitcher because they spaced him out so much. And it was really hard to nail down. when they were going to pitch him, because it was just like they'd announced it the day before, which made it extra frustrating if you were going to consider using him as a pitcher instead of a hitter.

But obviously in leagues where they're two separate players, and you can get the pitching stats independent of the hitting stats, I expect him to be a valuable player for you. It's just, is there any chance that another year remains, move from Tommy John's surgery, they're going to start him more often, knowing how much, obviously, they're asking him to do on the hitting side. I guess it's a possibility, but I don't think you can count on it. So how many starts didn't end up making last year? He made, oh, I've got his batting fan grabs page up. He made 23 starts last season. Yeah. There were a few where he got pulled really

early. So that's why you see 130 in a third, which seems low. It is low. But 23 starts is actually, it's a pretty big deal. I mean, that's basically three quarters of a normal pitcher's workload. Yes, but never with the two-star week. So there are 23 starts. There are 26 weeks in a typical season. So what I'm trying to say is you have, you have, you have, you have, you, have to, like, it's not 23 starts and you're removing him sometimes because they're sitting him for two weeks or whatever. Like, it is often with a pitcher who makes fewer than 25 starts. It's 23 starts where he's a fixture in your lineup week to week, you know, assuming we're talking weekly lineups. So you're kind of limiting yourself with him in a way that may not totally

justify the upside. It's complicated. Gotcha. Yeah. I mean, he's, honestly, it's crazy to say, He is a more valuable player in real life for the angels than he is for fantasy, right? Because they could just, you know, reap the rewards and, hey, we're going to, you know, throw you out there as a pitcher today. And he's going to give you, you know, six or seven innings and all these strikeouts. Scott, if you do draft him as just a pitcher, Otani, what would you want him as ideally? Like your SP4, SP5? Where did you say I haven't ranked? I haven't checked in a while.

26. Well, that would suggest SP3, wouldn't it? Mm. Which is what I was thinking. So who do I have just behind? I could pull up my own rankings, I know, but it sounds like you already have them up. Did you just jot that down,

or do you have the whole thing pulled up? I've got them right here. So you've got just ahead of him, Luis Castillo, Joe Musgrove, Freddie Peralta, just behind him, Blake Snell, you Darvish, Justin Verlander. That's in Roto. I mean, that sounds about right, doesn't it?

Maybe Darvish and Verlander volumes more important to you? Yeah. Yeah, I think I would say, take Verlander over him. I have him a little bit lower than you. I haven't met 30, 33, probably because of the workload concerns. Yeah. But like beyond that Verlander Darvish range, you start to see workload concerns for everybody who has similar upside to Otani. You know, obviously not really workload concerns for like Tyler Malley and Sean Mania,

but... But in that same mold as like a Shane McClanahan or an Alecmanoa or Dylan Cis, somebody like that. Yeah. So he's basically in that range. So, look, he's going to give you good ratios, we think, and lots of strikeouts. So similar to those guys, but I actually think probably Manoa and Cease might be able to give you a little bit more volume. McClanahan and Otani, I think they'll probably give you the same amount of endings this upcoming season. Let's talk about these other two utility bats, Scotty, and Fran Mill Reyes mentioned him earlier. His ADP is 115. That is the 10th round of a 12-team league.

26 years old, right in his prime, a mammoth human being. foot 5, 265, the guy hits tanks. 254 batting average last year, 30 homers, 85 RBI in just 115 games. That was a 39 homer pace over 150 games. Scott, he still hits too many ground balls for a slugger, but he's proved that he can maintain this high home run to fly ball ratio. At this point, I trust him. You know, I think 250 to 260, 30 to 35 home runs is a very fair expectation for

friend Mill Reyes. Yeah, I agree. I wish he walked a little more, and I wish he elevated a little better. But basically, you know, he broke through with those 37 home runs in 2019, and then was more or less that same guy in the short in 2020 season. The home runs were down a little, but, you know, it was obviously a very small sample. Nothing to really have you think he changed in any meaningful way. And then he basically did it again last year too.

So I think really predictable player, more valuable and rhodo than points, I would say, because of the poor plate discipline and the fact that he kind of dominates a category with the home runs. But you know, I love with my approach this year, not wanting to, not wanting to sell myself short in the power categories. You know, I love finding those big power sources later on, and I think Reyes fits the bill. It just makes for a more difficult fit, obviously, since he's utility only. And I had some hope last year.

Going into last year, I was thinking, oh, you know what? He actually did pick up outfield eligible. He played 11 games in the outfield last year. So at some point last year, you were able to slot him in the outfield. It just wasn't enough to carry over to this year. So of the three utility only bats, I guess the only one that for sure is,

well, if we want to even count all four, including Gavin Sheets, I guess the only one that for sure is going to remain utility only is Nelson Cruz. But Scott, I don't think Fran Mill Reyes will get it this upcoming season because there's going to be the DH in the National League. I would imagine that's the only reason why he ever played outfield was in National League parks.

I don't look at the, what's, Let's see. Let's find out. I'll look at it right now, Frank. All right. Because he started all 11 of those games, and let's see if they had no DH for all of them. Nope, he got, no, eight of the 11 starts came in AL games.

Interesting. All right. How soon will he get it? I mean, I think a fair question. It is not. It is welcome, Scott. I would love to have outfield eligible Fran Mill Reyes. So please make it happen, Cleveland, if you can.

It would be awesome to get another power hitting outfielder. But as of now, only util only for Fran Mill. He probably has outfield eligibility on Yahoo, because they're pretty liberal with their position eligibility there. But Scottie, who would you rather have? Fran Mill Reyes, I don't even know if I need to ask this, or Kyle Schwabber, who's going into similar range. Not Schwabber.

How about Fran Mill Reyes versus Ryan Mountcastle? Also, Mount Castle is actually going like three or four picks ahead, Fran Mill. Oh, you know how I feel about Mount Castle. That's right. I expect 40 home runs from Schwerber this year. I expect 35-ish home runs from Reyes this year. I expect like 20 home runs from Mount Castle this year. Oh, geez.

Both because I think he was more like a 28 home run hitter last year. I think he got five home runs more than he actually deserved last year. and then that was obviously before they moved the fences way back in left field at Camden Yards. So, you know, I'm really fearful of what Mountcastle's power production is going to look like. And then I also think in the case of Schwerber, like he's got terrific on-base skills in addition to the power. So that further separates him from Frommel-Raeus. All right, last one here, Scott. Would you rather have Franmel Reyes or Nelson Cruz?

Straight up. So I have Cruz ranked ahead. I have Cruz ranked way ahead. I think I'm to the point where I need to start downgrading Cruz. Yeah, I'm 41 years old. Well, that's not, it's not so much that. It's partly that. Okay.

But obviously that hasn't changed from when I first made out my rankings. It's the fact he hasn't signed yet. And I'm starting to get a little worried about all the guys who haven't signed because whenever an agreement is reached, they're going to ramp up so quickly. I mean, I think the season could potentially start within three weeks of the agreement. Four is probably more likely. Let's say somewhere between three and four.

How quickly are all those guys going to sign? Like, I think a lot of people are imagining the next day everybody signs. And I don't think that's realistic, you know? I think there's a good chance some of them don't sign in time for the start of the season much less in time to get the work they need in to be ready for the season and yeah I mean I'm sure they're all working out on their own

but it's not the same as game conditions it's even more concerning I think for the pitchers which fortunately most of the remaining free agents the ones we care about anyway are hitters but you know you got Clayton Kirshall you got Carlos Rodon got a few pitchers in there too I don't know I don't know.

Like if they don't sign within the first two weeks after the transaction freeze is lifted, will they have time to be ready for opening day? I don't know. It's a fair point. Yeah. And we've seen that before. Obviously, it's different circumstances, but players that, you know, sign midseason, you know, just get off to like these terrible starts or even players in the past that have signed,

you know, mid-spring training. A lot of them usually get off to slow starts. So we'll see. Hopefully it's not the case, but there's so many players that still need to sign. And Nelson Cruz is one of them. He's got an ADP of 152.2. He's going in the 13th round of 12-team leagues, now 41 years old. Finish as the 64th overall player in Roto last season.

64th, his ADP is 152. So just throwing that out there. Last season, he hit 265, 32 homers, 85 RBI, struggled in his 55 games with the Tampa Bay Rays, hit 226, 13 homers, a 726 OPS with the team. Still crushed a ball while he was with Tampa Bay. Had some really bad Babbup luck, 252 Babbup, much lower with Tampa Bay than basically anywhere else he's been the past couple of seasons.

And Scott, I think there might have been something going on in Tropicana Field. I've mentioned this in the past, but remember how Willie Adama said he struggled seeing the ball when he was in Tampa Bay, when he played in Tropicana Field. Nelson Cruz hit 2-11 with a 603 OPS in 25 games in Tropicana Field. I looked into his career splits. He has played over 50 games, so a pretty decent size sample in Tropicana Field. He's at 247 with a 765 OPS. That's his second lowest OPS of the ballparks he's played at least 50 games in,

and he's done that in 13 different ballparks. So I think he might have just struggled in Tropicana. And other hitters have done that too. So, yeah. Yeah. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, honestly. It's so funny that you bring this up because not even related to the podcast. I was looking into the same thing today when I was making that decision between Nelson

Cruz and Hunter Renfro trying to get to the bottom of how concerned I should be about the drop off in production for Cruz. And I thought about Willie Adamas. And I think I even read something in reference to another player about how he didn't like. he didn't see the ball well at Tropicana Field either. It's dimly lit. There's like a white roof, I think. And Adamas has complained about the batters eye, of course.

And yeah, I looked into the same thing. Now, Cruz's batting average wasn't great either home or away with the raise, but the strikeouts were down away. They were, you know, that was one of the big changes going from the twins to the raises. The strikeout rate went way up. It was especially bad at home for Cruz. And yeah, the power production wasn't really there at home either. And, you know, the fact that he hit, it was something like 235 with 10 home runs on the road as a ray in about, I don't know, like 125 at bat.

So when we're talking about a sample that small, what does the batting average really matter? Anyway, the fact he hit that many home runs. And he continued, like his exit velocities remain the same, still great. So, yeah, I think, I don't think, I agree with you that there's not much evidence of decline for crews. Now, you get to be over 40 years old that could turn on a dime. But when ranking my concerns for him, that's behind the fact he's utility only and the fact that he hasn't signed yet. Yeah, I think he's still criminally undervalued at this cost. 152 again is the ADP.

He should be a lot closer to Fran Mulraeus in that 110, 120 range. I think I still prefer Fran Mulraeus. I would expect a better batting average from Cruz. just 15 years difference just seems like there's more that can go wrong for Nelson Cruz so I'll take Fran Moraes over him but I think that they should be ranked closely so

once you see one of those guys go I think that's an indication that you should probably look to draft the other one we are going to take a quick break but first we've got a mailbag podcast coming up this Saturday so be on the lookout for that we'll be dropping a mailbag each Saturday in the month of March so continue to send your questions in at Fantasy Baseball at at CBSI

and try to keep the emails shorter if you can, because we're getting a lot of emails this time of year. So we're trying to answer as many as you can, you know, my downtime answer them. And I appreciate the details, but really all we need is your league size, the format, and if there's any kind of weird things going on with keepers, let us know that, of course.

But outside of that, try to keep them short and we'll try to get to as many of your emails as possible. When we return, we'll do AB, I did it again. OBP, risers and fallers here. on fantasy baseball today. All right, Scottie, so let's take a look at the biggest risers in OBP leagues, and these are based on ATC projections from Rambardi Ario Cohen, and they are projected,

these are the projected auction and salary cap values per player. So the ones that rise, the players that rise the most in this format compared to batting average, no surprise, Scott. The poster child for this is Joey Gallo. 206 career batting average, a 333 on baseball. percentage. He goes from being the 79th ranked hitter in batting average leagues to the 29th ranked hitter in OBP formats. I saw Chris's Tout Wars League, which is OBP. Joey Gallo went in the sixth round. Does that sound right to you? Boy, I'm not sure he's being drafted like that. I'm not sure

he's being drafted like he's ranked in either of those formats. I guess. I guess so. I'm I mean, part of me still thinks that, like, if he's going to hit under 200 every year, that OBP only counts for so much. And also, could there come a point when pitchers just become so unafraid of him that the walk rate ends up going down, you know? Like, I think Gallo is, you know, back-to-back years hitting under 200. he's kind of teetering on irrelevance here. Now, he could snap it back pretty quickly

if he gets back to hitting even 220, I would say. But I don't know, he's playing a dangerous game here right now. I get it. I just, I don't know. I really don't want to have much to do with him this year unless the value is just tremendous. I'm with you. I mean, outside of an OBP league,

I don't want to drive Joey Gallo. And there are some differences between what we're talking about here and what we were talking about yesterday. So a points league versus roto, Joey Gallo, he's still, he's not a big standout in points leagues because he strikes out so much. We're talking about a 35% strikeout rate, and you lose fantasy points for that in a points league.

So while he walks a lot and that helps mitigate some of the strikeouts, it doesn't help all of it. So he's still someone that does stand out in a Roto league with OBP, versus batting average for this exact reason. Yeah. I don't know if I like my explanation here, but it's just honestly the way I feel. Like I just, I mean, look,

by real baseball standards, baseball reference war, he was better than a four-win player last year. So you wouldn't think he's coming out of the lineup if he's doing that, obviously. He's really good defensively too, apparently. Right. But I don't know.

It's just so ugly. It's just so ugly what he's been doing the past couple years. I think, so I just looked up the league batting average and league OBP. Scott, and this is why it's so much more tolerable in this format. League batting average is 244. He hits under 200. League OBP is 317. He's got a 333 career on base percentage.

If he's sustained, but, you know, 333 career market was 351 last year. It was... Which is, yeah, it's even better. This is interesting. So it was 351 last year. It was 301 during 2020. Yeah, he walked a ton last year. He walked so much.

Right. And so, you know, it's one thing to say he's going to give you a 350 OBP. It's another to say, but it might actually be 320, you know? The 320 isn't much higher than that 317 league average mark. Yeah, but it's so much more tolerable than that batting average. So, again, Joey Gallos, he's a huge boost in this format. Juan Soto, no surprise. He goes up to the number one overall player in OBP leagues.

He's actually worth $5 more than Fernando Tatis based on auction value in OBP leagues. Grandaul, someone we spoke about yesterday. Reese Hoskins moves up. Bryce Harper is the fourth ranked player in OBP versus fourth ranked hitter versus ninth ranked hitter in batting average. Mike Trout sees a boost. Mark Kan, someone, you know, we haven't talked much about this all season, Scott. He goes from the 155th ranked hitter in batting average to. to the 97th ranked hitter in OBP,

dealt with some injuries last year, but before he was hurt, he was performing really well for Oakland. Now he's with the New York Mets. What are your expectations from Mark Hanna? Oh, gosh, very low, very low. I was, so I have a column that I've written the past few years, and I wrote it just last week.

It's tiers by category, tiering players by category is opposed to by position. And the way I do it is I assign every, re-hitter letter grades for batting average home runs and stolen bases. I leave runs an RBI out of it because it's tied very much to line-up position and those other three categories. And I don't even bother with pitchers because generally speaking, what makes a pitcher good makes them good across the board.

So I really just focus on hitters and I focus on those three categories. And I only bother to list those that get an A, braid a B grade or a C grade in those three categories, Canna got Ds across the board. So I don't think he ended up making the list. Too many years of breaking your heart, Scott? Well, no, it's just... I mean, he had a good first half last year,

but he had a terrible second half. And what it left him with was numbers that just really weren't that valuable. He had 231 with 17 homers and 12 Steve. and basically a full season of the bats. A 1510 guy? I don't know. I mean, I get that the OBP will probably be pretty high.

And I should also point out that those 12 steals were kind of an outlier. He hadn't really shown that kind of space stealing potential previously, which is why I only gave him a D for stolen bases. Yeah, I just don't think there's enough here beyond the on-base percentage to make him worth pursuing.

All right. the other risers in OBP leagues, Josh Donaldson, Max Muncie, if healthy, of course. Joey Votto, he goes from the 80th ranked hitter to the 56th in OBP.

Robbie Grossman is a big one. Pay attention in your OBP leagues because could go 15-15, batting average, probably going to hit between 230 and 240, but... He went 2020 last year, FWIW.

Yeah, no, I mean, it's possible. I think he really, like, squeeze as much possible value as he could have last year. I think the thing about Grossman is he's either going to be a, he's either going to be good enough to remain a full-time starter for a Tigers team that's now probably looking to contend

or he's not. And he'll go back to playing sort of the supporting role he played with previous organizations in his career, in which case he's not going to be that useful in fantasy. So it's, yes, he's always been good at getting on base. And so his value goes up in OBP leagues, but I don't want to overstate it either because there's obviously a lot of risk

that Robbie Grossman just loses his job. Yeah, no, entirely possible. They really like him in that organization, but it will come down to him doing a lot of the things that he did last year, including getting on base. So a 14.6% walk rate, a 357 OBP for Robbie Grossman last season.

Matt Olson's a big riser, Kyle Schwerber, Matt Chapman, and then some late round options, very late round options. Kevin Bigeo. Brandon Nemo, Aaron Hicks, Brandon Belt, and Miguel Sino. The biggest fallers in OBP leagues,

a lot of names that you heard yesterday. Tim Anderson, he goes from the 24th ranked player in batting average to the 52nd in OBP. Whitmerifield, another one, batting average, gives you speed. A meta Rosario.

Trey Turner goes from the third ranked hitter to the eighth ranked hitter. Bo Bichette goes from 7th to 14th. Salvador Perez, 11th versus 20th, 11th ranked hitter. I mean, this is based on, you know, two catcher leagues, so obviously, but Salvador Perez is awesome. Tommy Edmund, Luis Robert, Ozzie Albies, and then Lordes Goreal, Iloi Jimenez, and

Eddie Rosario. So some pretty big names on here, Scott, that, you know, we like to draft, some guys that could provide power and speed, Ozzy Albies, Luis Robert, Bobichette, but you need to realize they have lower walk rates, and in turn, or OBP because of that. Now, just to remind everybody, this is based on Ariel Cohen's projections, right, when we give rankings for these players? Yep.

Okay. Yep. Okay. Yeah, I think I was saying early on, Bo Bichet is the first rounder. Well, no, I guess O'Tonnie would be the first rounder who slips the most when you're comparing roto value to points value. But Bichette is somebody else who does and may not be a first rounder in points leagues.

I know we're talking about OBP leagues here, but there's more crossover there with points leagues than there is when you're comparing standard roto to points leagues. Yeah, for sure. So, yeah, I mean, I think this all makes sense. The Whitmerry field one is interesting. I mean, it makes sense. He doesn't walk a lot.

but it's it's interesting from the perspective of like I don't I don't when you're comparing Maryfield in standard 5 by 5 roto leagues to points leagues you know he still doubles a lot

he doesn't strike out much so like he still ends up being pretty valuable in points leagues oh yeah but you know when you're talking about just a standard roto league versus a standard roto league but with OB instead of batting average, then he doesn't get all those extra goodies that points

league Maryfield gets. So it's, I don't know, I just find that interesting. No, it's a good point. You know, 42 doubles last year that was tied for the league lead for Whitmerryfield, but his OBP was 317. That's exactly the number I mentioned, which is league average based on last year. So he does fall down quite a bit in this format. He'll also give you the steals, of course, if you play in a Roto League with, obviously with Seals, but with OBP. But yeah, keep in mind, those are the names that fall down the most.

And this is kind of a broad observation. You know, when we're talking about the biggest risers when it's OBP instead of batting average, it was mid-tier guys, late-round guys. The biggest fallers going for batting average to OBP, it was mostly among the early rounders, right? It was, you know, Boba-Sachek going from

7th to 14th, Salvador Perez, 11th to 20th, Luis Robert, 20 to 30th, Ozzie Albi's 18th to 27th. So we're talking about drops of like one round. Yep. For high-end guys, for the most part. So I don't think you have to worry about fallers as much, I guess is what I take away from that. Rizers, yes, you can elevate certain players if it's an OBP league, but I don't think you have to downgrade. You have to worry about downgrading guys as drastically.

Well, I mean, it seems small, but that's still technically a whole round worth of value, right? Scott, I mean, 20th hitter versus the 30th hitter for Luis Robert. So instead of him being maybe a late second round pick in a batting average league, he's a late third round pick in an OBP league. But here's the thing. There are still so few early rounders who can make a dent and stolen bases. True.

I don't know, and basically all the guys here, guys who make a dent and stolen bases, I don't know that you want a short-change stolen bases because you're worried about walks. Yep. No, I think that's a good point, too, that you're bringing up because the risers,

there were a lot in the middle part to late part of the draft, so you can make up that OBP later on in that format with, you know, the Joey Vottoes, the Mark Hanna's, if you want Mark Kana, Josh Donaldson or Kyle Schwarber

Matt Chapman, guys like that where you can get those in the mid to later part of your draft so they can boost your OBP back up so yeah maybe it makes sense to just if you still need steals early in that format realize it's going to hurt your OBP

but you can make that up later on in your drafts. All right Scott I want to wrap up with some first year player draft rankings we don't have too much time here and honestly I just want like a thought or two on each of these players or groups of players here

and everyone can find these on the site Scott has an article with all these written out, and we'll start up top, number one. It's the top 30, and for those who don't happen to play in a dynasty league that has a first-year player draft, it's basically the latest draft class from like May and the latest round of international signings, which was in January. So basically the newest prospects added to the prospect pool in longstanding dynasty leagues. there's often a first-year player draft to divvy those guys up. So it's generally not many rounds.

My rankings here only go 30 deep, but that's because you're talking about a limited sample of the prospect pool. All right, let's start up top, your number one player. And this actually called me by surprise, Scott, because I think that most people have one of or all of the high school short stops, you know, in that first group. and then, but you have Jack Leiter, number one.

So he was the first pitcher selected last year by the Texas Rangers. He's 21 years old. He came out of Vanderbilt, really big fastball. Not a huge body or anything, you know, six foot one. So I think some people worry about that. I mean, ultimately, you have him as your number one player, so it doesn't sound like you're worried. No, I mean, the biggest difference is he's a college guy

and the short stops are high school guys. And so I expect Jack Leiter to move very quickly. it's not a one-to-one comparison. Like, I'm always going to take the college guy over the high school guy. It's also the fact that Jack Leiter coming out of Vanderbilt, son of a major leaguer, already has a very full arsenal. Like, he just seems, as much as you can say this about a pitching prospect, he seems very safe and projectable and should be up much sooner than any of those short stops.

So, you know, I like to turn over my farm system as quickly as possible, so I'm not waiting around on a guy who ultimately doesn't pan out. All right, well, you're going to be waiting quite a while for these high school short stops. Two through five in your rankings. Marcelo Meyer, who went to the Red Sox, Jordan Lawler, who went to the Diamondbacks. Both of those guys are 19 years old. And then Khalil Watson, who went to the Marlins and Brady House,

who went to the Nationals. Those two are 18 years old. Scott, if you can, maybe just talk about the standout tools that you've seen or read about those high school short stops. So yeah, this group is very close, this group of four. You'll find a lot of debate about how to rank them. And, you know, I struggle with it myself. I go with Meyer number one because I feel like he's the most projectable bat.

He's gotten some Corey Seeger comps, just a really good bat skills and plate discipline and good instincts, all of that. but he doesn't have the speed element that Jordan Lawler of the Diamondbacks and Khalil Watson of the Marlins has and I mean their bats are pretty polished too I don't want to say that because Myers is there isn't for their age they're all very advanced hitters so you should be excited to get any of them

Brady House I think is the clear fourth of the four and yet his power is probably the most standout tool of the four. All right, let's move on to the next group here, and that includes two college hitters and an international star. Henry Davis, a 22-year-old catcher, was drafted first overall in last year's MLB draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Seventh in your rankings, Sayas Suzuki.

He's a 27-year-old outfielder coming over from Japan, or at least he plans to, hopefully, is signed once the lockout ends. And then number eight in your rankings, Colton Couser, a 22-year-old outfielder. drafted by the Baltimore Orioles. What do you think about these? Scottie, two college hitters and Sayas Suzuki, who, man, the numbers in Japan are just ridiculous. Last year, 38 homers, nine steals, a 317 batting average.

So it's always hard to know how numbers are going to translate from whether players coming out of Japan or coming out of Korea to the United States. I mean, obviously they're not making that transition if they weren't putting up mega numbers. overseas and yet we see a lot of those guys not live up to not pan out not live up to expectations once they get here including

oh blanking on the name but for the Padres last year Hassan Kim yes yes so obviously he looks like a dud I mean it's only one year's worth of data and maybe he'll get better but

it's not promising so far Suzuki though his plate discipline is incredible and he also has more of an upper cut swing you tend to see flatter swings in those leagues across the Pacific but Suzuki's swing is more tailored for the American game for maximizing power output and so that's why I feel like deservedly there's more optimism for him

than some of the guys we've seen come over recently. And I should also mention that, you know, he obviously hasn't signed yet, and it's a complicated situation coming from Japan. You wonder if this lockout and the delayed start to the season, if he's going to even find a team at all, maybe he stays in Japan. But there was a report right after opening day was canceled,

the first week of games was canceled, that he's still committed to signing and playing in the MLB and playing the MLB. I know when people, I shouldn't say that. People get mad about that. Playing in the league this year. And,

yeah, so he's still somebody who's probably going to make an impact this year. All right. Anything you'd like to add on Henry Davis, Colton Couser? I mean, Davis, there are just so many great catcher prospects right now

that even though he was the number one picker, in the draft last year. He gets out shined. But yeah, I mean, he looks like he should be pretty projectable as far as catchers go and good power and all of that. Good power and plate discipline. Colton Couser of the Orioles, I'm not sure he's going to have middle of the order power,

but really strong hitter profile, good plate discipline. Kind of reminds me of like Michael Brantley, back when Michael Brantley was, you know, more of a must-start fantasy option. I could see Couser having a similar trajectory. All right, let's talk about number nine on your list. And that is the first pitcher that was drafted out of high school. And that is Jackson Job 19 years old.

He was drafted by the Detroit Tigers. Has maybe the best pitch in the MLB draft last year. It's got a just wipeout slider. But I read recently about the hit rate on high school pitching prospects. I understand he was drafted as early as he was. But it's not very good from like a dynasty perspective. So I would say keep that in mind with drafting a pitcher this young. Right.

Yeah. No, I mean, that's why he's only ninth. But yeah, I mean, the skill level seems really impressive for him. He's gotten some comps to, especially with that slider to Dylan Bundy, who remember was the fourth pick back in 2011 and was considered like an Uber, top of the line pitching prospect until he started having some arm trouble. And obviously his major league career hasn't gone as hoped. But if you're just talking about dynasty value,

if Jackson Job is able to meet that, what Bundy's was once upon a time, he'll be a pretty good asset for you. All right. Next up, we have two more college bats and a high school catcher. That's right. Sal Freelick, 21 years old, an outfielder for the Brewers,

Trey Sweeney, 21-year-old shortstop with the Yankees. And then Harry Ford is that 19-year-old catcher with the Mariners, though many people, Scott, believe that Harry Ford will move off of catcher and maybe wind up as a corner outfielder or a corner

infielder, he's apparently super athletic. Yeah, super athletic for a catcher. Just a lot of upside there. A lot of upside. Very young and unclear his path to the majors since he is a catcher, at least for now. But if you're just looking

for like raw ability, Harry Ford has a lot of it. Do you want me to comment on it? are these others, or are you going to keep going? If you have anything quick to say, yeah. I mean, Sal Freelick is, I think he has one of the lower ceilings of the players we've mentioned so far.

There almost certainly isn't going to be middle of the order power there. But really projectable path puts the bat on the ball a lot, stress-inducing speed. Could be a handy player, but maybe not especially high-end. All right, the first two international teenagers here, 13th and 14th in the rankings, Christian Vicaro, a 17-year-old outfielder signed by the Nationals, and Roderick Arias, a 17-year-old shortstop signed by the Yankees in January.

Yeah, so these guys always are major role of the Dyson Dynasty Leagues. Like if you're willing to wait and you just want to shoot for as much upside as possible, then investing in the 17-year-olds who signed during the international signing period, that's the path you take. Now, you can tell from where I ranked them 13th and 14th, that it's generally not a high priority for me. Like I said, I'd like to turn over my farm system quickly in a dynasty league.

But I did take Christian Hernandez last year, who was one of the top international signings. And so far, I'm happy with that choice. He's with the Cubs, of course. But the other ones who are ranked highly like him haven't, you know, they've lost some of their appeal since then. But, you know, this is how you get Wander Franco, right? Take a shot on one of these guys.

And maybe it works out. It's just they're so young and they have so far to go that it's hard to tell how that's going to play out. Yeah, it's, I mean, we were just talking about someone like Sal Freelich, right, who doesn't have massive upside. Or at least we don't think he does. More of a high floor player. You know, you take a 21-year-old outfielder who, you know, just came out of college in Freelick or, you know, one of these 17-year-olds where, They can literally be anything. You're just going to be waiting a lot longer to find out.

The next five in your rankings, you have Matt McLean, a 22-year-old shortstop with the Reds, James Triantos, a 19-year-old second baseman with the Cubs. James Wood, a 19-year-old outfielder with the Padres. Jay Allen, a 19-year-old outfielder with the Reds, and Benny Montgomery, a 19-year-old outfielder with the Rockies. Maybe one or two here that really stands out to you. Well, McLean with the Reds is another floor play.

like Sal Freelick is, he's already in his 20s coming out of college, good contact skills, maybe not enough power. The others are definitely upside plays. Triantos of the Cubs, Wood of the Padres, Allen of the Reds, Benny Montgomery of the Rockies. I don't, like, I feel like Montgomery, who was, I believe he was the highest draft pick of these last year, I feel like he has the toughest path because his swing just needs to be completely rebuilt. I don't necessarily trust the Rocky's organization to do it right, so I'm not super high on him. I do love Triantos of the Cubs.

And James Wood of the Padres I find especially interesting. He's 6'7, like Aaron Judge, and it seems like he has that kind of power as well. And, you know, showed improved contactability once he got his feet wet and professional ball last year. All right, yeah, James Triantos. I read a feature article about him on The Athletic, where they were throwing around some pretty lofty comparisons,

but they said he could be the next big right-handed, pure hitter in the game. Like batting average, power. They threw out comps like David Wright. So remember the name, James Triantos, lots of upside there. And like, you know, I know I ranked Matt McLean ahead of them. It's really hard to hammer down exactly how you'd rank these players, really after you get beyond the top 10, I would say. say.

Sure, yeah. Because it just kind of depends on the format you're playing in, what you're looking for exactly. I'm sure there are Dynasty Leagues where I definitely take somebody like Triantos over Matt McLean, just, you know, depending on what I'm looking for. I've got the ninth overall pick in the Scott White Dynasty League prospect draft. And I may or may not be thinking about James Triantos. I'm just throwing it out there. So if anyone else wants them, send trade offers my way.

Number 20 through 24 in the rankings, you have Gavin Williams, a 22-year-old starting pitcher with the Cleveland Guardians, Gunner Hoagland, a 22-year-old pitcher with the Blue Jays, Andrew Painter, an 18-year-old pitcher with the Phillies,

Sam Bachman, a 22-year-old pitcher with the Angels, and Ricardo Cabrera, another international teenager here, a 17-year-old shortstop with the Cincinnati Reds. Lots of pitchers in this group here, Scottie. Yeah, so I feel like there's a drop-off

after Montgomery, and obviously when you're, drafting pitchers, there's more risk to it. I do like Gavin Williams of the Guardians. I think I have him ranked higher than consensus here. His strikeout numbers in college were ridiculous. Fastball, triple digits, six foot six. I just think, especially in the hands of that organization, Cleveland,

those skills should play up. All right, this final group here, Scotty, 25 through 30 in the ranks. Will Bednar, a 21-year-old pitcher with the Giants. Ty Madden, a 22-year-old pitcher with the Tigers. Zach Gelloff, a 22-year-old third baseman with the Oakland A's, Chase Petty, an 18-year-old pitcher with the Minnesota Twins. Ryan Cusick, a 22-year-old pitcher with your Atlanta Braves, and then Jackson Merrill, an 18-year-old shortstop with the San Diego Padres.

One or two, that stand out here, Scotty? So, Zach Gelloff of the athletics, he's somebody whose stock has improved considerably since the draft kind of reminds me of Jonathan India the profile there good on base skills doesn't really have a standout tool but everything kind of plays up because of his approach and he's 22 so he could be up quickly that was Zach Gelloff I also want to mention Chase Petty of the twins and Ryan Cusick of the Braves they both hit 102

on the radar guns. So some big fastballs there. All right. Ty Madden, I don't know anything about him myself, but anyone who listens to fantasy football today, you know Ben Shragger is the producer there. And Ben Shranger played college baseball at Rice University. And I asked him, do you know anybody from last year's MLB draft that I need to pay attention to? And he said, Ty Madden. Ty Madden's a name to remember. So for whatever that's worth, pitcher here with the Detroit Tigers. But we are going to wrap there. For Scotty, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching this Mishmash edition of Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Monday. Bye-bye.