Fantasy Baseball Today - Venezuela Wins the WBC! Buy or Sell These ADP Risers/Fallers? (3/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: March 18, 2026Venezuela beat USA in the World Baseball Classic final (2:51)! ... Eduardo Rodriguez and Daniel Palencia both dominated (7:38). ... News (13:24): Seiya Suzuki has a sprained PCL in his knee. ... Chas...e Burns, Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson all made the Reds' Opening Day roster (19:25). ... Let's run through some spring training standouts from Tuesday (24:27). ... Roman Anthony is rising while Zach Neto is falling in ADP (36:03). ... Buy or sell Matt McLain's rise (41:26)? ... Buy or sell Cam Schlittler, Spencer Strider and Tatsuya Imai (45:53)? ... Buy or sell Jac Caglianone, Bubba Chandler, Emmet Sheehan and Jacob Misiorowski (52:03)? ... Are these injured names falling too far (1:02:00)? ... Yay or nay on these late-round players (1:07:18)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
What's up and welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, March 18th.
I am Frank Stample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
Today on the show, ADP,
risers and fallers. Are we in or out? We have some injury updates to discuss, but first, the WBC is over.
And Venezuela are your world champions. They win three to two over the USA, and it was a tense game,
mostly late. It was like kind of boring for most of it. I guess obviously because I wanted USA to
win and they weren't hitting the ball, so it's kind of boring for most of the game.
But yeah, job well done to Venezuela. Congrats to all their fans out there.
Are you what they're called world champions?
Because I feel like that's, that title's already been claimed by another competition.
I think they're, they're world champions for the next seven months.
Right?
Until we get a world series winner.
Yeah.
World baseball, classic champions.
World champions, maybe.
That's fine.
What happened in the game?
Willier or Abraeu.
He's that dude, man.
Two big home runs here.
One against Japan, one against USA as well.
And I feel like we haven't really talked about him too much this.
offseason, but, you know, maybe there's more on the horizon here. He performed well last
season in only 115 games. So if he plays more, we've talked about this with Jaron Duran,
that there aren't really any righty outfielders on the bench there. If Abraeu and Duran are just
full-time players, like, yeah, we probably should just get a career season out of Willier
Abrae, right? Yeah, I mean, he hit a couple home runs. I saw there was, um, I think Jeff
passing got into a Twitter spat with someone about this, but, uh,
Willie Arbrayu really struggled against high fastballs last season, and apparently that's been his focus.
The big home run he hit off of Japan was off a high fastball.
I think this one was not.
It was a low pitch.
But, you know, he's aware of what he needs to work on, and that's what we always want to see with a younger player.
And, yeah, I'm open to Willi or Brayu having the best season of his career.
I will also point out on Jared Duran's case.
I don't have you guys noticed.
but of the six home runs,
Jared Duran has hit,
Frank, I think you've noticed this.
Oh, yeah.
It's your favorite thing in the world.
Among the six home runs he's hit this spring,
including the World Baseball Classic and Spring Training,
four of them have been off lefties for Jaron to Rand,
including one against Chris Sale.
Chris Sale and two off Matthew Boyd.
Those are pretty good lefties.
Yeah.
So I'm working on like a little five winners from the World Baseball Classic.
I may rewrite it because, like, Danny Palent.
Boy, he looked really good, closing out games for Venezuela.
You know, the control was still a little iffy at times, but boy, the stuff there, if he can just throw a decent amount of strikes.
He's really good.
And obviously, look, we saw that last year, too.
You can just add him as a sixth player.
You don't have to rewrite it.
Yeah, that's fair.
That's fair.
It changes everything.
Well, it's already 3,300 words.
I don't want to.
I just, wait, you wrote a little article with five.
No, no, no, no.
It's also, it's also including my Tout Wars recap for tomorrow's newsletter.
Such an overachiever, Chris.
I just wanted to say on Willier-A-Raeu that I'd have an easy, I'd be able to get more excited
about him if he played just about anywhere else because his main strength is elevating
to his pole side.
And that was true even in the minors when he wasn't considered much of a prospect,
but he was graded elevating to his pole side.
He goes, he's like at the worst possible venue for a left-handed hiter who does that.
He actually did hit more home runs at home than on the road last year,
but his batting average at home was 227 because a lot of those fly balls were wasted.
And so I think that puts a pretty hard cap on him.
Plus, I doubt he's going to be a true everyday player.
He might play more against left-handers than last year.
I know there are some who are really excited about Willi or Bray's prospects for this year.
I think he's going to remain in the fourth outfield of range.
maybe he can be a borderline number three.
Yeah, I think that's all fair.
I mostly agree with that, yeah.
We got a clutch Homer from Bryce Harper in the eighth inning of that game.
Then Gino Suarez, go ahead, RBI double in the top of the ninth.
Those guys are great.
Don't need me to tell you anything about them.
Wow.
What?
I mean.
I mean, Bryce Harper was pretty bad before that homeride.
He was pretty bad before this one.
It was six games before this.
But, you know, if you wanted to shove it in Dave Dombrowski's face,
after getting offended that he said you were no longer elite.
It would have been nice to have more than one good plate appearance
across the course of the tournament for Bryce Harper.
That's probably fine.
For Dumbrowski to say,
I know he said it and I don't think we've ever addressed it.
It was one of those things where it's like,
you're not wrong.
But why do that?
I shouldn't say it.
Why do that with Bryce Harper, though, of all players?
Are you sure?
You don't consider Harper elite anymore?
I don't feel like his skill set has diminished.
He's dropped from like a 900 to more like an 850 OPS bat.
It's still very good.
I wouldn't call that elite though.
He's like the last three years,
he's been like a three to four and a half win player,
which is still good.
844 OPS last year.
He didn't have his best year,
but it was 844 OPS,
the year before 898, the year before 900.
Yeah.
I think he's very good.
He's only getting older, Scott.
He doesn't go back in time.
It would it be at all shocking to me if he came back with a 900 OPS this year.
He's basically a year removed from doing that.
It's in his range of outcomes.
That's totally fair.
Eduardo Rodriguez was great in this start.
He threw four and a third shot out innings, one hit, one walk, four strikeouts,
nine whiffs on 57 pitches, through his cutter a lot more, and it was really good in the start.
Changeup was also great.
Probably doesn't matter.
Do you guys have any thoughts on Eduardo Rodriguez?
I mean, he was really good in 2023.
and since he got to the Diamondbacks,
he's been a five plus ERA pitcher
each of the last two seasons.
It's probably...
Expectations are very, very low,
but look,
streamers emerge all the time.
He has had multiple stretches in his career
where he has gone from looking pretty bad
to looking pretty good overnight, seemingly.
So it wouldn't surprise me if Eduardo Rodriguez was useful,
but I don't think,
like, among the players who have pitched in the World Baseball Classic,
I think Luis Severino's definitely,
more interesting than he was before the tournament.
I feel like he's the only starting pitcher who really changed my opinion of him in any way.
Nola a little bit.
His velocities back up to where it was.
Last year was like the third lowest average velocity of his career.
This so far in the World Baseball Classic in spring, he's been around 93, which is closer to where he was a couple years ago.
Yeah, that's no worthy.
I'm not saying Aaronola's an ace again, but I'm open to getting a good outcome from him.
Even year Nola, baby.
Even year Nola.
Yeah.
I mean, well, when he was throwing that hard, he was at least a borderline ace.
Yeah.
So I might need to be a little more open to drafting him.
I basically been just writing Nola off completely.
Yeah.
I drafted him.
Did I end up with him in my Tout Wars?
I ended up with him in one of the leagues that were playing out.
Maybe they had to head points.
I still think he'll, at the very least should be a useful head-to-head points player.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I do have Arnola a little bit later.
on as one of the late round risers recently in ADP.
Erod has to be rostered in NL only leagues, anything shallower than that.
You know, he's 15-team scout team, you know, play the match-ups, see what happens there.
And then Palente, you mentioned this Chris.
I mean, he looked amazing in the world baseball classic.
He had three saves, pumping 100 miles per hour, has three different pitches.
I recently moved him up to RP12.
This has nothing to do with the WBC.
It was more so just the Cubs showing confidence in him.
And I liked what we saw from him last year.
I wanted him to be at the top of that tier.
That includes Emilio Pagan and Kenley Jansen and Jeff Hoffman.
To me, Daniel Polensey deserves to be at the top of that tier.
But it's a tier for a reason.
So if you guys disagree, that's fine.
I still prefer Hoffman.
I think there's more of a track record there.
But I think Palencia had been underrated for most of the offseason.
Maybe it's changing out.
He actually went.
We just did a head-to-head points mock while the game was happening,
which I'm sure.
To the great ire of Chris, I'm sure.
Well, it was more the technical difficulties that we ran into.
My wife was trying to talk to me.
And I'm like, I'm sorry.
We are figuring something.
This draft went all wrong.
We got to figure something out.
My wife was trying to talk to me.
And I was like, I'm sorry.
I got to figure out this big problem.
But it's fine.
It took about 15 minutes longer than usual.
I said, anyway, in this mock draft, even before Palencia entered the game,
Pelletia went ahead of Devin Williams.
So he does appear to be a player on the rise.
Not that I would advise anybody to take him ahead of Devin Williams.
All right again, congrats to Venezuela for taking down the WBC,
the championship there up against USA.
I do have a bunch of news items here.
Let's take our first break when we come back.
We'll get into the news.
Then we'll do ADP risers and fallers.
We'll do all that right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
Let's quickly run through the news and notes.
we have some injury updates here.
Sayas Suzuki was diagnosed with a sprained PCL in his right knee,
and the Cubs said they'll make a decision on his opening day availability this weekend.
He is one of the fallers for later.
NFBC ADP from the first nine days of March to the last week has gone from 86 to 102.
Is that enough of a drop for Sayas Suzuki, or should he fall a little bit further than that?
I think so. Craig Counsel described this diagnosis as good news,
and it's not clear that he'll begin
that Suzuki will begin the year on the IAL.
I think he probably will,
just out of abundance of caution.
It's a long season,
why rush him back?
You've got a couple extra players anyway, you know?
But this isn't the short sort of injury
that should sideline Suzuki for weeks and weeks.
And so I don't think he deserves to slide that much.
16 places sounds perfectly reasonable to me.
Yeah, that injury was on Saturday, right?
Yes.
the median time that players have missed when going on the IL with a knee sprain
strain over the
didn't they call it a strain I think they corrected that it was a sprain
I saw sprained PCL yeah yeah the average that would make more sense but I saw
strain yeah that's not I think it's just muscles of strains right ligaments
ligaments are brain yeah and then tendons are a third thing I don't know I think
anyway the average is 29
days so that would be like
April 10th, April 12th, something like that.
So a little more than the minimum.
That seems reasonable.
Like why push it?
You miss eight games or whatever.
I think that would make sense.
So a fall is reasonable,
but I don't think it needs to be dramatic.
I moved him down, Frank.
You said 102.
Yeah, that's the ADP.
Yeah, I moved him from outfielder 16, myself,
to like 20 right around.
Yeah, I moved him to 101.
for yesterday when I updated my rankings.
So right there.
It's pretty low among outfielders.
Yeah, 104,000.
No, Scott.
Down there with Zach Veen, huh?
No.
No.
I don't know if you heard, but Zach Bean.
100 overall.
Zach Veed put on 40 pounds this offseason, did you hear?
Shoot, it's a big deal.
Yeah, sure.
I did as well, actually.
Yes.
No, I know you did.
Come on.
Garrett Cole will make his first spring start Wednesday against the Red Sox and we'll pitch one inning.
It's his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery with the internal brace in March of last year.
His timeline all along has been May or June.
But if he's already making a spring start and he, I don't know, he's only going to throw an inning here.
He probably needs like a full spring training.
So I know they've said May or June.
It kind of feels like he could be back by like late April, early May.
I think it's, yeah, I would think it's going to be more like May.
And the thing you have to keep in mind is whenever he begins his rehab assignment,
which doesn't have to be right at the start of the season.
But whenever he does, that basically means he'll be back in 30 days.
You know, pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery.
You can extend it when they're coming back from Tommy John surgery.
I think you have to get like a special dispensation from the players union.
But I can't imagine those have ever been turned down for a player coming back from Tommy John surgery.
So I think May, like when I look at Wheeler,
Rodon and Cole, you know, in ADP, there are massive gaps between them. You know, Wheeler,
Wheeler's probably going 150 picks ahead of Garrett Cole in ADP, if I had to guess. And,
um, I don't think that should be the case, personally. I think Wheeler, if you want to have Wheeler
ahead of Rodon and Garretel, I think that's perfectly reasonable. But in my rankings now, I think I have
Rodon and Wheeler separated by about 10 spots in the overall rankings.
So only a couple spots at starting pitcher.
And then I think Rodon's another like 30 or 40 picks, but it's closer than the ADP.
We've gotten, and part of that is just Cole hit 98 in a bullpen session.
We got confirmation of that.
And Rodan, his first live batting practice, I think, last weekend, he was averaging like 93, 94.
He hit 95.
So he averaged 94 with his fastball last year.
So that seems like a pretty good sign.
So I think Wheeler, we've talked a lot about that,
but I think Wheeler is probably being overdrafted,
but I think Rodon and Cole especially are being really underdrafted.
It's right at 130 spots between Rodon and, or Cole and Wheeler.
I just, I think those need to be a lot closer.
The ADP over the past week at the NFBC Wheeler is at 120.
Carlos Rodon is at 206, and Garrett Cole is down.
at 249.
And that's...
No I.L spots.
No IL spots.
Rode or Cole's timeline is a little hazier,
so I get why he's going so much further.
But, like,
I have more confidence
that Garrett Cole will look like Garrett Cole,
than I have that Zach Wheeler will look like
Zach Wheeler, right?
I mean, at least we've heard about
velocity for Garrett Cole,
and we're about to see him in his free of start.
Tommy John surgery,
Tommy John surgery versus Thoracic Outlet, right?
But it's also the internal brace,
which doesn't have a huge track record either.
Yeah, but I think his was both.
I think his was the hybrid procedure.
It was both.
Yeah, yeah.
Those, my understanding at least is those have had a better track record.
It's when you have just the internal brace, which was Lucas Gilito, Spencer Strider,
Jared Jones is coming back from that.
Justin Seale.
That's when it looks a little bit more iffy.
Yeah.
Carlos Rodon, we just mentioned his name.
He will not make a start in the Grapefruit League this spring, but he has been throwing
simulated games and he remains on top.
track to return at some point in April.
Shohay Otani will make his first pitching start of the spring here on Wednesday.
That Garakull start, by the way, it will be televised.
So if people want to watch that and tune in to see what he looks like.
Chase Burns, Rhett Louder, and Brandon Williamson have all made the Reds opening day roster.
They also are not going with a six-man rotation.
How many pitchers is that?
Make it make sense.
They have six.
Yeah, that's six for a not six-man rotation.
My guess is, and I think Francona had some comments to this extent.
It's going to be a piggyback situation.
They're not going to say what it is, but my guess would be louder, just gets used more or less like a normal pitcher.
And Burns and Brandon Williamson are piggybacked off each other.
Probably Burns starting, which is actually probably worse for his value, actually, in the short term.
Because if you're not going five innings, you'd rather be the guy pitching second,
you have a chance to win.
Yeah, but I'd still rather have him be the starter just so that he could stay in that role.
Yeah, I mean, and I assume that's what they're they're looking at.
But these are both guys that they're going to have to limit the inners of.
So I moved Burns around where I moved, Traus Savage.
I think it's a very similar situation where understand yourself.
The temple of the Oracle at Delphi, I think.
That's where know thyself came from.
know thyself. It's important.
If you are the type of person who habitually freaks out in April and you don't have the patience,
do not draft Chase Burns at like any price.
Because the worst thing you could do is draft Chase Burns get frustrated two weeks in the season and drop him
because he's going to be awesome on someone else's team.
I think you will be very happy that you drafted both Chase Burns and Treyas Savage by May 1st.
You just got to get there.
And you've got to understand about yourself whether you can look at that and say,
that's a dead roster spot for a couple weeks.
Because I think that's probably going to be the case with Chase Burns.
All right.
Next up, J.B. Crawford was not in the lineup again on Tuesday due to a nagging shoulder
that's been bothering him all spring.
And this could open up the shortstop job for Colt Emerson.
He homered on Tuesday and is updated spring numbers.
He's 11 for 39.
That's a 282 batting average.
two homers, one seal, 8.54 OPS, four walks to nine strikeouts.
Scott, what do you think the chances are here that Colt Emerson is actually up on opening day?
Well, they haven't sent them down yet, and they're starting short stops injured, and I don't know.
It's looking better. It's looking more promising. He just homered, like you said.
So I don't know that they necessarily want to have Colt Emerson take the range.
yet. I'm not sure they're convinced he's ready. I'm not sure he's shown the spring that he's ready.
But I don't know what the alternative is. Leo Rivas, who started some games in the postseason.
Maybe they go that round instead. I think it's probably if it's a 10-day IL stint at the start of the season, then they probably just go Rivas.
But Crawford is, did I see he's going to visit Dr. Keith Meister? Yeah, that sounds kind of serious.
That's never, yeah. You never want to see the, the, the,
the surgery Meister on the schedule.
Yeah.
Making incisions.
Yeah, that's what you don't want to see.
So I would think like if surgery is recommended,
and I think the MRI didn't show any damage,
but he's going to Keith Meister anyway for a second opinion.
If he does have to miss a month plus,
then I do think they have to seriously consider Colt Emerson.
Yeah.
So I think it might anyway.
I just,
know if I don't know what certain in what circumstances would I want to invest in
Colt Emerson and fantasy I don't think a standard size league because I imagine if he's on
the roster it's it's not very I mean we'll see how it goes with Crawford but I
imagine it's not for very long I question how well he'll perform and there are so many
other rookie targets yeah that unless it's just like end a draft I'll take a fly or
whatever I wouldn't want to be too invested in Cold Emerson I mean he's
going on drafted in most 15 team leagues I would think so I think so and he's only 20
years old as you pointed out Chris so Colt Emerson let's see has he been I only
have he has been taken in four of 14 main events which are 15 team leagues on the
NFBC so but it might increase is yeah yeah I think it's I think it should
given this but it's it's a reserve round even in a 15 teamer should be
Yvonne Herrera caught a bullpen session on Tuesday and is expected to return to the
Cardinals lineup on Wednesday. I was just reading the expectation is that he's going to catch
for three innings in that game. So hopefully he comes away from that healthy. That would be good
news there on Yvonne Herrera. The raise option both Jacob Melton and Carson Williams to
AAA. And apparently Jansen Junk and Braxton Garrett are battling things out for the Marlins'
SP5 job at the moment. A couple Tuesday spring outing things that I wanted to just quickly
point out here. Bailey Ober, the velocity remains down, 88.2 miles per hour on his
fastball and it had a 97 mile per hour average EV against on four batted balls.
So he is one of the late round fallers from 307 to 406 there on Bailey Ober.
Everyone's pretty much out on Bailey Ober based on that velocity.
What about Sean Mania?
The velocity is down for him too, but he actually threw four perfect innings with four
strikeouts.
88 miles per hour on his fastball as well, which is down three miles per hour from where it was last
year. He's a follower as well from 286 to 312, but had good results here. What do you guys think
about Sean Mania right now? I think a lot of bats too. I think he had nine whiffs on just 50-something
pitches in this start. So, yeah, 52. Nine whiffs on 52. Yep. It's hard to know. It's hard.
Like, it's not good. You don't want to see a velocity drop of that much, but also there's not much
investment, you're not making much of an investment here.
Benai is like the 300th player off the board over the last week.
And a strikeout rate was huge last year, even though he struggled overall.
The strikeouts were great.
Two years ago, obviously when he first dropped the arm angle, he looked like an ace down
the stretch there.
The thing about a very low arm angle is it's more about the shape of the pitches.
They are just, it, it,
The rise there is so extreme that you can get away with a lot of times having velocity in the 80s.
I mean, plenty of pictures, usually in short relief roles, have made long careers out of doing just that.
So could it work for Benaya theoretically?
He also seems pretty chill about it.
I actually watched the interview with him.
There wasn't, he wasn't just kind of bearing his teeth and giving the answer.
Like he legitimately seemed completely unconcerned about the velocity.
and he thinks it'll pick up once he's in a real game and the adrenaline.
Like it also looks to me when he's pitching like he's not going full effort.
So I don't know.
I still think of him as something of a sleeper.
Maybe he's throwing 88 in his first start and gets crushed and it's like,
okay, I'll drop this player I drafted 300th overall.
Again, it feels like such low risk that I don't mind taking the shot still.
But it's not what you want to see.
You'd rather the velocity be in the low 90s where it normally is.
Especially coming off the bone chips in his elbow last year too.
Like he didn't get that address in the off season.
Yeah.
Looking at the range he's going in over the last week, it's like he's right behind Jose Soriano,
Reynaldo Lopez, Connolly early, and Cade Cavali.
It's not a great group.
Yeah, none of those seem like obviously better picks.
I think if Connolly Early was in the Red Sox rotation, he would be, but.
He wouldn't be going that way.
I think if Connolly Early was in the Red Sox rotation, he would.
probably be a top 150 pick.
So like, and the guys behind him, Brady Singer, Clay Holmes,
Luis Heel, Reed Detmer's, none of those guys are particularly interesting,
but Mick Abel and Logan Henderson.
Yeah, I just saw Mick Able.
And it's like, well, I would much rather have Mick Ebel
based on what he's shown this spring, the Shamanai.
Because it's the elbow for me.
That's the concern.
He had the bone chips in the elbow last year and he didn't have it.
And I think people are way,
too confident or way too willing to tell other people to have surgery.
And it's like, no, that is, like, if it's an elective procedure and you elect not to have the surgery,
that is totally reasonable and your choice.
And this is just scary.
Like, I don't want to, I don't want to mess with that stuff if I don't have to.
So I get it.
But it is also like, yeah, but I probably am going to think you are a less healthy pitcher if you're pitching through bones per.
bonespurs in your elbow.
So there are a couple guys going behind him.
I'd still rather have Mick Abel.
Bryce Miller, if I'm going to take that flyer on a, you know,
a roster spot, I'm not sure, has a lot of utility.
Jacob Lopez, certainly.
Maybe Dustin May.
I'm kind of done with Dustin May,
but I know there are a lot of people who are still interested in him.
He had a good start here on Tuesday.
Dustin May did.
It was classic Dustin May, great stuff.
I think it was like three strikeouts and four innings.
Like, that's, the strikeout upside just has never really been there for Justin May.
He's more of a...
He's a pitch to contact guy.
Pitched a contact guy.
Like, the stuff makes you think and the velocity makes you think,
oh, this is going to be a big bat misser.
Yeah.
He's generally run low ERAs in his career.
Obviously, that wasn't so true last year.
It was for a while, though.
Yeah.
I still think there's some appeal there, but beyond even where I'm looking to draft Sean
Mania.
Yeah, I guess I just, rather than highlighting Dustin May as a draft target or even really a sleeper, just,
I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up mattering and everybody was picking him up off the waiver wire, two, three weeks in.
Dustin.
It's going to be May.
Velocity remains up in the start that he had here on Tuesday and, yes, having a good spring there.
So we'll see what Dustin May could do.
Two other just very deep names.
I wanted to throw your way any interest at all.
Anthony Kay with the White Sox continued his strong.
spring coming back from Japan, 16 and a third innings, five earned runs, 16 strikeouts to 5,
15 strikeouts to six walks. And Hermann Marquez, who is now with the Padres, has an opportunity.
He had nine strikeouts and 13 swinging strikes here on Tuesday. Any very deep league interest
in Anthony K or Hermann Marquez?
More in K than Marquez, but not a lot in either. It's, you know, obviously depends how deep the league is.
you get much deeper than 15 teams, you get into AL only,
then obviously Anthony Kay's a draft target.
But I don't think there's going to be big strikeout upside here.
I think it's going to be more,
is he an efficient innings eater for the White Sox
and a potential streamer in fantasy?
Similar, I mean, I don't know that anybody's thinking of Dustin A is an innings eater,
but similar in terms of, okay,
I'm not looking to draft Anthony.
Kenny K, but I'm intrigued enough that I'm going to be watching him closely early in the season to see if he's somebody worth picking up.
He's a fine, he's a SPARP, right? He is RP eligible?
Yes.
I think he's a fine dart throwing a head-to-head points league in your reserve rounds.
I can't say in a 12-team Roto League.
I'm drafting Anthony K.
I will say, I'm rooting for Armand Marquez.
It would be really cool if, because he was really good.
six years ago. You know, injuries have really taken their toll on him, but at his best,
he was a really good pitcher that just could not overcome course field. I would be, I think it
would be very cool if Armand Marquez had a good season. Petco's a very good park, so it's
possible that that works out for him. I'll keep an eye on Armacquez early on as a streamer.
Last note on Anthony Kay, I have not confirmed this, but I trust Nick Pollack.
with all of my being, he told me at least,
at least three times this weekend
that Anthony Kay's first started against the Marlins
and that we should all stream him there.
So I'll just throw that one out there for Anthony K.
I feel like the Marlins line is pretty good.
It's not a pushover?
Well, I think they might be like a normal bad lineup.
I don't think they're going to be.
I would be surprised if they were top half of the league.
But yeah, if he slots in four, five or six, I guess I don't know, they're not probably not going.
They're going with a five man.
They actually released their rotation.
They announced their rotation.
It's a bad rotation.
But if, yeah, if he's fourth or fifth, then he would get at Miami.
That's a great place to start your season.
Yeah, good venue to pitching.
Yeah, after that, it would probably be Toronto or Baltimore.
That's a little less good.
So.
Great.
Yeah.
All right, before we get to the ADP risers and fallers,
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Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
Let's talk ADP risers and fallers.
So the first number I will read off
that's from NFBC ADP
March 1st through the 9th.
The second number will be their ADP
March 10th through the 17th.
And we'll just ask you guys
in or out, buy or sell. Are you buying or selling at this new increased cost? This one,
it's a very small increase, but it's inside the top 50. Roman Anthony from 54 to 50. The hype
continues to grow. He hit two home runs into WBC, one off of a lefty. Buy or sell this new
price on Roman Anthony, pick 50 over the past week. I mean, I was behind the consensus
already. I'm behind you guys by like a full round.
So I suppose I have to sell this.
Now, it doesn't feel good, though, Scott.
It doesn't feel good.
No, I mean, look, he was the best prospect in baseball when he was called up last year.
And you see exactly why hits the ball incredibly hard, draws a ton of walks.
Ice in his veins, man.
He does not let bother into.
Like, he just, his approach.
I don't know.
He's going to come through in the night this time.
His approach is so good, though.
But, you know, obviously hitting a couple home runs over a small sample doesn't eliminate.
the concern of will he be able to elevate consistently enough to tap into his power fully,
which was an issue throughout his minor league career as well.
It wasn't just the small sample in the majors.
That hasn't been answered for me, even though obviously we see reasons for optimism.
It's just not, it's too small of a sample to say for sure.
And there's not a lot of stolen base ability to fall back on if he's not a,
big home run hitter. He needs to be a big home run hitter. He can't just have an 18, 162 game pace of
18 like it was after he reached the majors last year. So I'm out. It did take him about a month
to start hitting for power. I don't think he had like no home runs as his first 35 games or something.
And then he started to hit, figured out the the ex-Wobo of his final 100 plate appearances was
over 400. Yeah. Yeah, it was it was encouraging. It was a backloaded.
It's still, you know, under 16th, you game base of 18,
but it took a late surge to get him even to that.
Well, you're citing 100 plate appearances,
which itself is a very small sample.
So if he goes on to hit 35 home runs this year,
we can look back and say it all started that last month he was in the majors.
But for the cost, I'm not willing to say definitively,
yes, this is the start of Anthony.
figuring out how to elevate the ball properly.
I agree.
I have him at 52, and you said his ADP is 50,
so I will sell at his new price, I guess.
I have him at 54, but yeah, I'm right in line.
If he slips a little bit past that in drafts that I'm in,
then I would be in on drafting Roman Anthony.
Zach Netto has fallen from 29 to 37.
I mentioned it earlier, but he returned here on Wednesday.
He went 0 for 3 with a strikeout.
It doesn't seem like a serious injury that he's dealing with,
but also had his strained left hand last year.
So has some history with that injury.
Do you guys buy or sell Zach Nitto at 37?
He's been slipping a little bit.
So I don't know how to answer this because I had him ranked below 37 all along.
That sounds like a sell to me.
I buy that he's falling, but I sell that he's still a top 40 player.
I thought he was one of the most overdrafted to begin with.
I feel like he's being drafted at his seat.
ceiling.
It's going to be for where you're drafting them harmful and batting average and the run
an RBI production.
And I don't think is, is, I think it's just people looking at the home runs and stolen
bases and saying, hey, 30, 30 guy.
And they're kind of forgetting everything else that goes along with being a third round
pick.
And then this hand issue, which is a continuation of one that he was dealing with at the
end of last year.
So, okay, he's fine.
He's not going on the IEL.
but what about when he takes that funny swing three weeks from now?
I just could see this becoming a recurring thing for Netto.
That's not even the primary reason.
Again, I think he was just being overdrafted in the first place,
but it makes me okay.
It makes me all the more comfortable passing him up at cost.
Yeah, I think the cost is fine.
Again, I have him a couple spots lower, so I guess sell.
but if you get him at 40 instead of 37, that's not a huge difference, and I think I'd feel okay about that.
So let me ask you this, because this is a question I've been asking myself, and maybe a lot of people listening have been asking themselves.
I feel like the ideal outcome statistically for Zach Netto and P. Crow Armstrong is very similar.
Maybe there's more downside risk with P. Crow Armstrong.
Maybe not now that Nettos dealing with this health concern.
Who would you straight up at early in round three?
Would you rather take Netto still or would you rather take PCA?
No, I think I've had PCA ranked ahead of Netto all along, actually.
Okay.
And now it's closer to 10 picks, so it'd pretty clearly be PCA for me.
It's Netto for me.
I just, I trust the, as hard as he hits the ball, at least last year he did with the increase in barrel rate.
And while his plate discipline is not great, it's still better than P.
Armstrong, so I would take Zach Netto there.
Let's talk about some of the hype guys.
Matt McLean from 173 to 146.
And after Tuesday's terrible game, where he went 0 for 3,
he is now batting just 512 this spring with six homers,
two steals, and a 1589 OPS.
Buy or sell.
Matt McLean at 146.
All right, so John Anderson,
who I think he's an independent baseball,
fantasy baseball writer.
He had a post on X, the Everything app,
where he looked at all the players
who had a 200 WRC plus last season in spring training.
And Matt McLean's at 325.
That's not sustainable,
but for the purposes of the conversation,
let's set the bar at 200.
And the top three, actually,
Peekker Armstrong, Jeremy Pena, and Hunter Goodman,
all had breakout seasons.
All right, that's a pretty good sign.
Curtis Mead.
Ellie De La Cruz, I think he had a breakout season that just the quad ruined.
He was, his strikeout rate was down at like 24% before the injury.
He mostly just held steady, so I don't think we count that as a breakup.
Thai France, Brandon Drury, I didn't realize he was still around.
Alejandro Osuna, Matt Chapman, Jackson Churio, Cody Bellinger, I guess we can count that one.
He was significantly better last season.
Corby and Carroll, I think that counts as a breakout.
Trace Thompson, David Boat, Max Kepler,
Brett Beatty, okay, we'll count that one, and Victor Scott.
So out of like 20 names...
Basically, a coin flip.
A little worse than a coin flip,
but like seven or eight guys had real breakouts.
It's about what I'd expect.
Yeah, I think the conclusion that you would draw
is, you know, spring training probably doesn't tell you that much,
but there's not...
It's not nothing.
There was a fan graphs piece from last spring.
that looked that looked into how much projections can change based on a good spring.
And it was like on the high end, it's about five points of WRC plus, which that would get Matt
McLean to an 82 last season.
That wouldn't really change his outlook fundamentally.
I want to say, I am open to the idea that this spring represents a step forward for Matt McLean.
but his ADP in main event drafts is like 127 I think.
Let me get that number for.
He's going ahead of Ozzy All Bees.
It's, well, you're talking about main event specifically.
Yeah.
And those are the 15 team, you know, supposed to be the best of the best.
And you do see.
It's an $1,800 buy-in.
So it's-
You do see some weird stuff in those drafts just because people are playing for a,
life-changing amount of money, and so they're more willing to take risks.
And, you know, a lot of the stuff that we talk about when we talk about these formats.
That is ridiculous.
Like 130th for Matt McLean.
I'm fine moving him up.
He started the spring before spring training from January 1st to the first day of spring training.
His ADP was like 205.
If you were telling me you want to take that guy 170th, yeah, that seems like a reasonable move.
but 70 picks?
That's way too much.
I agree with the conclusion,
even if we say 1.45,
which is where he's been in NFBC overall,
that puts him ahead of Ozzy All-Bees.
That's higher.
I'm not that confident.
I'm not confident enough that he's back
to invest that kind of draft capital in it.
But I don't want to treat every,
every flashy spring equally.
like sometimes it's just noise,
sometimes they give you a peek behind the curtain
and let you know what's going on.
And I like what I saw when I peeked behind the curtain
from McLean.
I think he's done well to diagnose the problem
he was having last year,
sliders low and away
and to articulate what he's done differently
to address the issue.
And, you know, it's a small sample,
but it's evidence to back up what he's saying.
And so I might be a little more open to it than you,
but at the end of the day, I'm not going to pay that price tag either.
Cam Schlittler is next up, and he has gone from 139 to 122.
Perhaps some people cooled off a little bit when he had the midback tightness earlier in camp,
but he has returned.
He has made two starts, and he has looked dominant.
Six innings, one run, 10 strikeouts to one walk.
His cutter velocity has been up two to three miles per hour,
and he's racking up a bunch of whiffs with that pitch.
So buy or sell Cam Schlittler at 122.
I buy, but I imagine I was buying all.
along.
106 is where I have
Cam Schlittler.
Yeah, I think he's really good.
And you're probably right
that the back issue
was suppressing his stock early on.
I think the correction
could stand to go even further.
I have him 120, so I will buy.
I could move him up even more than that.
Spencer Strider is on the rise,
question mark, from 123 to 109.
I don't get it.
So I made a big trade
today in the Scott White Dynasty League, as it's informally known.
24-team Dynasty League, pride of the industry, I dare say.
I don't think it's informal at this point.
That's just the Scott White Dynasty League.
Hashtag S-W-D-L.
Does it really roll off the tongue, you know?
No, it doesn't.
But anyway, my big trade was, as a guy who was invested in Strider from the beginning,
and, of course, lapping up every moment of the success he had,
I was done with him.
I was done stressing about Strider.
And so I managed to work out a deal where I traded both Strider
and a very, very cheap Jonathan Aranda, which pained me.
Of course, everyone knows how much I like Aranda,
and I think the payoff is about to come.
Traded Strider and Aranda for a more expensive Dillon Sees and Michael Garcia.
So I...
That's Michael Garsia.
Garcia to use Michael Garcia.
It's going to take some time.
That and Ron Harsuarez, we learned.
Yes.
So anyway, I was, you know, you have to understand the context of I was taking on more
expensive players.
But I wanted to cash out on Strider while I still could because I'm so worried about the
bottom falling out.
If he had shown anything, given us any reason for optimism with the fastball this
spring, it might be a different story.
And even with his fastball as it is, I'm open to the idea of him being sort of like Sunny Gray's been the past few years.
I think that's within the range of outcomes.
But there is a much worse scenario that scared me enough that even in that league where I have a greater emotional attachment to him
and where I was required to sacrifice Jonathan Aranda, who I also have a great emotional attachment to,
I was willing to do it just to avoid the worst case scenario.
Yeah, like I'm, I'm looking at my rankings. I've got them 141. So big sell on 109.
I just that that's even with the inflation of pitching prices, it's ridiculous.
But I'm looking at like Kate Horton at 154. And it's like, can I really make a case that Spencer Strider should be drafted ahead of Kate Horton right now?
It was easier a couple days ago.
Well, yeah.
Kate Horton just had.
He had that bonkers start against a. Jose Ramirez less Cleveland.
and Guardians team.
10 strikeouts, 21 swinging strikes.
And by the way, opposite him.
The changeup was outrageous in that one.
He had like 11 whiffs with just the changeup.
Opposite him, Gavin Williams also had 21 swinging strikes.
So they both tied for the most swinging strikes in a spring game in the same game.
First, I thought something just went wrong with Stackcast.
But no, it's actually happened.
And you're right, Kate Horton's changeup looked amazing.
He threw it a lot more, which he said it was a very lefty, heavy lineup.
Lefty heavy lineup, maybe he should just do it anyway
because it was his best pitch last year.
But, you know, I'm sure a bunch of smarter people
than me will tell me why that's a bad idea.
Bottom line is he looked great,
and I moved him up in my rankings.
And I don't think it would be crazy to take him ahead of Spencer Strider.
I'm doing it.
I'm doing it.
I'm moving Kate Horton ahead of Spencer Strider.
I think that was a long-winded way of saying
we're all selling Spencer Strider, right?
Was it too long, Frank?
Are you getting worried?
Just like 109.
I don't even, we don't have to,
to spend any more time on it. I think we have talked about Spencer Strider more than any other
player this spring for good reason. But I just, like, apparently nobody's listening to us because
it's 809 over the last few point. Or maybe the people in the NFBC just like to do the opposite
of what we say. Perhaps they've been profitable doing that in the past. Who knows?
Let's talk about Tatsuya Imi, who has risen up from 180 to 167. So far this spring, very small
sample for everybody. But for him, six shutout innings, two hits, one walk, seven strikeouts in his
latest spring start. He touched 99 miles per hour. He averaged 96.7 with his fastball.
I recently moved him up to SP 37. I am buying at this increased cost here for Tatsuya I'mai.
Yeah, I have him ahead of where I just moved Kate Horton. So all the, the interesting stuff we
said about Kate Horton, I still think I amy is a little more interesting.
So I'm, I'm in.
I'm buying at this price for sure.
And, um, I think there's a, I, the big thing for me with Tattoo EMI is he's, he's weird.
Uh, he, he throws this slider.
I thought we're going to get through a quick, quick, Chris.
Oh, sorry.
He throws the slider the opposite direction.
I think he's going to be futile pit hitters at least early on because there's just nobody like
him right now. So that's it.
I thought you were out of words and then you wound it up again and started going.
I am never out of words.
Kind of like that time that Scott wanted us to draft a player and then he was about to
start giving us analysis with like three seconds left.
All right.
So I think we're buying there on Tatsuya Mai.
It sounds like we're buying Kate Horton as well.
What about Cags?
Jack Caglione.
He is up from 175.
Connor Griffin?
162 had to be there.
162 for Caglione over the past week.
He has been a big riser.
He's been the Taka Spring.
120 mile per hour, exit velocity on a batteball this spring.
460 foot home run.
He hit a home run off of lefty Ryan Yarbrough in the WBC as well.
Are you guys buying Jack Caglione at 162?
You know what I am?
I'm looking at it now.
I don't have him that high,
but it would be pretty easy for me to move him that high.
So I'm going to move him up a little more.
I'm surprised he's only risen this much
because he hasn't come close to 162 in the drafts I've been doing
he's been going more like in the 140 maybe even 1.30 range
and that's where that's where it's like well
I think there's a ton of upside here
but is he really to the point of competing with Jonathan Aranda for me
or oh I guess I guess that's high for Aranda.
I have Aranda so much higher
you get the idea like uh lukechel i think i have in that range yeah i have some more bankable
hitters um who have pretty high upside themselves and it's like he did just hit 170 last year
whatever it was yeah it's look great but small sample yeah there's tons of talent huge eggs of
velocities but that was true last year too and he so you know there's definitely a point where it's
like the risk starts to exceed the reward but i don't think it's 160 i think it's 160 i think it's
more like at 140.
I have a range from 165 to 175
that includes Sal Stewart,
Jonathan Aranda, Caglione,
Connor Griffin, Matt McLean,
JJ Weatherholt. That is a very
fun range of just... Fun range.
Upside hitters.
That's a fun range? You're not going to draft many of those
guys at that range, though.
No, probably not going to get a lot of them.
If you want them, you're going to have to move them up this final week.
That is...
That is the difficulty, right?
you, I look at my entire sleepers list and it's like, oh, they're affordable.
In a vacuum, it's like, great value, great value, great value, great value.
You can only draft two of them because they're going to go in the span of a couple rounds.
Oh, I also just meant like they're all going to be much more expensive than that over the final week.
Because we do this every year where we've got ADP and everybody cares about that for weeks.
And then the final week, everybody's like, oh, screw it.
Just get your guys.
Yeah.
And that's exactly what we're seeing with a lot of these.
players right now. So Cags 162 in the past week, but you really want them. Might have to go at like
150 to get him. Baba Chandler up from 172 to 160. It's been an up and down spring. He had 10
walks combined in his first three outings. Then in his latest start, five innings, one run,
eight strikeouts to just one walk. He also had 15 swinging strikes on 66 pitches in that start. Are you
guys buying or selling Bubba Chandler at 160? I have Bubba Chandler ranked 120th.
So yeah, you could say I'm drafting.
I'm buying bubble chamber.
That sounds like a buy.
I don't know what's going on with his price.
That seems way too low.
Did it start even hot?
Did it drop some at first with all the walks and then go back up because he had a great start last time?
That sounds right.
That might be right.
Did it?
hesitant with all the walks this spring, but I still have him 140. So yeah, I'll buy 160 for sure.
Yeah, I have Chandler at 134, so I think we're buying across the board. Emmett Sheehan is up from
132 to 120. He's having a so-so spring. I think people are just getting excited about his potential
what he did last season. Wasn't great in the postseason, but he was great in the regular
season down the stretch. And I think it helps that Blake's knell is already hurt. And we don't
really know what to expect from Roki Sasaki. He just had another bad start here on Tuesday.
I think Sheen is just kind of locked into that role as, you know, their SP3, SP4.
120, are you buying?
I don't know that.
Scott, are you going to say it?
His most recent start?
You say.
Oh, you guys didn't realize?
Okay.
He averaged 93.3 miles per hour in his most recent start with his fastball.
Yeah, I saw that.
That's two and a half miles per hour down from where he was last season.
And boy, 94 in the first inning, 92.4.
by the fourth inning.
I'm not saying Emishian is hurt.
I'm not saying Emishian is a bad pick or anything.
That's a little alarming.
A little bit.
A little bit.
If it,
see if it becomes recurring,
I would say.
Because I noticed,
you know,
and you texted us this too, Frank.
It was a cold day in Florida today.
Not that that's when Sheehan started,
but a lot of pitchers' velocity were down
because it was cold by Florida standards.
He pitches in Arizona.
And he pitches in Arizona anyway, yeah.
But the point is just that a one start, things can happen in one start that you don't,
you don't want to overreact to one start, bottom line.
It has to become more of a recurring thing for me to really freak out about it.
More with Sheehan, though, I'm going the opposite direction on him.
Like, I've been lowering him in my rankings because his spring outings have been pretty short.
They've been talking up a lot of other pitchers.
They've been acting like Emmett Sheehan is just part of the,
that group of pitchers who are going to be cycled,
who they're going to be cycling through.
Even when he was dominating down the stretch last season,
it wasn't consistently in a starting role.
He didn't start in the postseason.
I just don't.
I wish it was different.
I feel like it should be different,
looking at the personnel the Dodgers have
and how well Sheehan has pitched
when he's gotten a long leash.
But I'm not confident they're going to handle him in a way
that justifies the price.
So I've been passing him over.
in drafts recently and finally I've decided
I'm moving them down behind names like
Tatsuya I'm always just a little weirded out
when the fantasy community is way more
convinced a player is good than their own team is
and that seems to be
where we're at with Emishian
I'm not even sure that Dodgers don't think he's good
I'm just for whatever reason they don't
seem to trust him to
stay healthy or to
be able to consistently give them
90 pitt I'm not sure exactly
what it is but he
was the guy who was taken out of the rotation last year when the when the playoffs came he was the guy
they were skipping down the stretch when they needed to like it just seems to be a little bit of
a disconnect between how we view mc she and how the very smart people who run the dodgers view him so
i'm higher i'm i guess i'm a little lower his price you said is 120 yeah i think i'm a little
lower than that it's not much but it's he's not someone i think i've drafted yet last name of the
hype guys, Jacob Mizirowski from 135 up to 124. He is racking up whiffs this spring. He has 12
strikeouts to three walks over seven and a third innings. Are you buying the Miz at 124?
No, my concerns remain where they were. And nothing he could do this spring, I think, would
eliminate that walk concern for me, that efficiency concern, because, hey, he looked great for
five starts. After being promoted last year, they snuck him on to the office.
All-Star team did the chagrin of Minnie.
And you know what?
The Minnie might have been right because he was pretty awful after that.
The strikeout, the control issues returned.
And I don't, it's going to take a lot for me to believe he's whipped that issue.
And I don't even think anything this spring tells us he has.
So I don't understand why people are responding to it this way.
I am going to give you guys a couple seconds to pull up your rankings before I ask this question.
So pull up your rankings right now.
but how do you rank the height pitchers at this point?
I mean, we talked about them a lot earlier in the offseason
and sporadically over the past couple of weeks,
but Nolan McLean, Cam Schlittler, Bubba Chandler,
Emmett Sheehan, Jacob Mizirowski, Traya Savage.
I guess you could throw Chase Burns somewhere in there as well.
So that would be two, four, six.
No, I think Gary Perez is just kind of ahead of all those names right now,
at least based on ADP.
So there's seven names there.
How do you rank them?
I think it's exactly this order.
McLean, Schlittler, Chandler, Sheehan, Mizirowski, Yesavage.
And then let me make sure I put, I think I just put Chase Burns and Trey Yassavich back to back.
So I do have Burns just ahead of Yassavage, just behind Mizorowski.
They're all top 150 picks for me.
So even Burns and Yassavage, I'm willing to spend that price.
Because like we said earlier, I think they'll be awesome May 1st on.
But yeah, that's the order I go.
McLean, Schlittler.
I'm a little lower on McLean than the consensus.
Then Schlittler, Chandler, Sheehan, Mizzerowski, Yisaravage, Burns.
Scott.
McLean, Schlitler, Burns, still third, Yassavich, fourth, Chandler, Mizirowski.
So maybe a little less trust in Chandler than Chris, and I don't like Mizorowski much at all.
and who else is there?
Sheehan.
Sheen is, yeah, he's the lowest.
You know, Kate Horton,
I'm slotting him above Mizirowski in this.
All right, there you go.
I'm going to go with McLean, Schlitler,
Sheen, Mizierowski, Bubba Chandler,
and then I have Chase Burns and you Savage a little bit lower,
and then Kate Horton a little bit behind that group as well.
Let's quickly run through some of the,
injured guys and where they're falling to right now is this too much of an overreaction.
Kyle Teal has dropped from 183 to 269, diagnosed with a grade two right hamstring strain on March 11th.
He's out four to six weeks.
He could be back mid to late April.
183 to 269.
That's ridiculous.
Overreaction.
Yeah.
Especially those are two catcher leagues.
Those are 15 team leagues oftentimes.
I mean, those catchers deep.
but those six or so teams in a 15-team two-catcher league who don't get one of the good ones,
they're getting some really bad ones.
And they don't want to just file Kyle Teal away for three weeks into the season.
That seems silly to me.
It's like what would you rather have, five months of Kyle Teal or six months of Carson Kelly or something?
Like you'd rather have Teal.
Yeah.
And by the way, it's five months of teal and a month.
And a replace.
Somebody like, like, Freddie Fermine or something like that.
Yeah.
His counterpart, Edgar Caro, is up from 402 to 340.
Is that okay?
Yeah, I think that's okay.
Yeah.
I think Carrow's moderately interesting.
Yep.
What about Yvonne Herrera?
He's down from 159 to 183.
And we know he's been out the past week due to knee inflammation.
But again, is going to be back in the lineup on Wednesday,
expected to catch three innings in that game.
What do you think about Herrera down from 159 to 183?
That's too big the drop.
I haven't moved him down that much.
I think it reflects that maybe drafters were too hopeful he'd get catcher eligibility
early enough to be startable there.
I hoped he'd get catcher eligibility.
I didn't think it would be that early.
I was mostly just drafting him because I think the bat's great.
And yeah, maybe he'll pick up catcher eligibility at some point.
Wouldn't that be nice?
Yeah.
The knee issue doesn't seem like it's going to affect his availability,
just may be his potential to catch.
But it sounds like he's coming back to catch three innings first game,
so I don't even think it'll affect that.
And I guess part of the reason he could be falling even further in NFBC
is that you need 10 games to gain eligibility.
So it's going to take him longer to get catcher over on the NFBC.
Jeremy Pena is down from 110 to 131.
He has a fracture on the tip of his right ring finger
and has been swinging a bat with one hand,
also doing some defensive drills.
He said opening day remains the goal,
but that is not a guarantee.
What do you guys think about Jeremy Pena
from 110 to 131?
I have him higher.
I've had him higher all the long than 110.
He's inside my top 100.
So, look, a job of 21 spots in the middle of draft
isn't crazy for a player who's injured.
I don't see that as that much of an overreact.
action. It's more than I'd react because it sounds like he might miss a week at most.
And so I'm basically treating it like he isn't injured and just happy to accept whatever
discount they give me.
Chris, do you agree or do you want to go to sleep? What do you think?
I have to swallow us a yawn. I'm sorry.
I mean, it's about to be 1230. It's late.
Yeah, no, Jeremy Penae, I have ranked still right inside my top 100. It's 99th.
Um, so technically inside the top 100, I, I'm fine drafting him.
I'm a little concerned just like disrupting his spring.
Maybe he's going to try to rush back from this.
It could go wrong for a guy that doesn't have a super long track record of being worth that pick,
but he was really good last year.
So I'm willing to take the discount.
A broken bone.
It heals and that's usually the end of it.
It's not like, I mean, Kyle Teal, for instance, a strain hamstring.
He tries to rush back from that.
He strains it again.
I think Penae'll be fine.
Yeah.
Could get off to a slow start.
Could be a nice buy low candidate early on in the season there is Jeremy Pena.
Gabriel Moreno down from 170 to 185, dealing with right elbow inflammation.
Looks like he'll be ready for opening day.
What do you think about Moreno slipping to 185?
Happy to buy that price.
Yeah, I probably have them higher than that, 166.
We all have been the 165 range.
So I guess we're all happy to take them at any kind of discount.
And then Brandon Lau from 163 to 176, he was scratched last week with lower body tightness,
but he returned to the lineup on Saturday.
I haven't seen anything else about it, so I think he's just fine.
These people hate Brandon Lau.
That's just the long and short of it is just, Brandon Lau is just super underrated in these drafts.
This dude is coming off a 31 homer season.
He was exactly as good on a per game basis the year before.
It's not like it came out of nowhere.
he had a 39 homer season once.
I think Brandon Lowe should be going around
130. I will take
any kind of discount they want to give me.
Brandon Lauer for Matt McLean, for sure.
Absolutely, absolutely. I just wrote about
the most underrated and overrated
players by ADP, and
Brandon Lowe made the list.
All right, let's
wrap up with some rapid fire here.
I'll read off some risers in the
200 to 300 range. I'll give you the
their name, where they've moved up to.
You guys could say yes or no.
And quick thought,
Jordan Lawler from 287 to 263.
Yay or nay?
Yay.
He's making the team.
Last I saw an MLB.com story,
he is all but certain to be,
sounds like the starting center fielder for the diamond backs,
and they're going to use him in the corners as well.
Very much a buy.
Josh Lowe from 312 to 290.
I'm sorry, Frank.
Bye, bye, bye.
He's back, baby.
He has been, I believe, the worst hitter in baseball against lefties over the past four seasons by Ex-Woba.
He doesn't have to hit lefties.
Look, the price is fine, but he's just not someone I'm ever going to be excited about.
Yeah, we all have him ranked quite a bit higher than this for whatever it's worth,
but I had the same reaction as you as I just, and I'd rather not.
Yeah.
All right.
Kodi Senga from 261 to 239.
Yay or nay.
Yay to him rising.
I don't know that I'm going to rank him quite that high,
but he's definitely moved up an entire tier
in my starting pitcher rankings.
Among those I'm happy to target late in standard size leagues.
Let's see, I moved Senga up to SP 66.
Where is that in the overall?
227.
Yay.
I am in.
I think I have him at 228.
Chad Patrick from 315 to 294.
Yay or nay.
I moved him up.
I'm not sure anything this spring,
I guess just maybe better assurance
that he's going to make the rotation.
He is coming off a...
His last start was terrible.
He got destroyed.
But obviously, they've had some injuries in that rotation
and Patrick had a good rookie season.
So I imagine he's in and interesting enough
to target in that, you know,
late round 15 team range.
And I am sure hoping for it
because I've got him in Tout Wars.
Got him in NL Labor, so let's go.
Chad Patrick.
Mike Burroughs is up from 271 to 251, a name we've talked a lot about,
yay or nay, at 250.
Definitely, yay.
He's a player.
I'm frustrated every time I miss out on him.
Oh, look, I have him 259, not 251.
So maybe that's why I miss out on him too often.
But I've gotten him in a couple leagues recently,
and I think he's one of the more obvious breakout candidates
that starting pitcher with the changes.
as the Astros have been making with him,
and everybody seems to know it.
Here's the name we haven't really talked about.
Will Warren is up from 312 to 295,
and he has looked great this spring.
Velocity has been up on all of his breaking pitches,
and he's getting solid whiffs as well.
Up from 312 to 295, yay or nay?
Will Warren.
I think that's fine.
I'm a mild, yay, I think.
He's having a very good spring,
and I just think when Cole and Roder,
Don are healthy.
I feel like he might be less likely than Luis Heel or Ryan Weathers to move to the bullpen.
I just don't think you're going to get like the big jump and stuff and results from him.
I feel like Heel and Weathers, you could see them dominating out of the bullpen.
So I agree with that.
I think there's a little more job security here for Will Warren.
I think he's, again, it's mild interest, but it's interest.
Brian Abrae, we know that he will open the season as the Ashford.
closer because Josh Hayder will start on the IL.
He is up from 217 to 201.
Yay or nay.
I have him even hard than that.
I have him around 180, so I'm fine with that.
I'm never going to rank closers as high as they go on an FBC.
So, look, obviously he deserves to rise, but he's not close to the top 200 for me.
Brian Abray.
Jason Dominguez is up from 316 to 302.
He's having a great spring.
And Scott, you mentioned this the other day.
Trent Grishman is having an awful one.
Would you guys be looking to buy Jason Dominguez at around 300?
I still expect them to begin the year in the minors.
I have him ranked higher than this for what it's worth.
But you guys don't.
Man, maybe you move to Mingas down some.
Yeah, I buried him just because I assumed he's going to start the miners.
It might not be long, though, I guess is the takeaway from his spring.
Yeah, that's fair.
Kevin McGonagel is up from 245 to 232.
He's had himself a nice spring.
That does not include a three-for-three game that he hit a home run against the Dominican Republic in an exhibition game.
We still don't know if he's going to be up on opening day, but kind of looks like he deserves it.
He's up to 232.
Yay or nay on Kevin McGonigal.
Yay.
I think he is going to make the team.
I give him better odds than Connor Griffin.
I think both him and Griffin are right around coin flips, but I think McGonigal is being overshadowed.
so I am yay on this one as well.
Cody Ponce up from 275 to 264.
Yay or nay.
Yeah, I've been on to Ponce from the get-go.
So, yay, like what I've seen from him this spring.
Sure.
Yeah.
And he's a spark for those who play in Head-Tead points leagues.
Matthew Boyd up from 224 to 214, having a strong spring NWBC.
His velocity and whiffs have been way up this spring.
I think it's just underrated.
I don't know.
It feels like everybody saw him have this awesome season last year.
And then he had like, what, three bad starts at the end?
And they're like, well, that's the real Matthew Boyd.
And I don't know.
I think he's good.
That was the most innings he threw in a long time too.
Yeah, I don't think he's like amazing.
But the Cubs defense is going to make him look better than he is.
So I think Matthew Boyd is a great pick outside of the top 200.
I agree.
I've come around to him.
I had him and Andrew Abbott back to back in my rankings.
I was having trouble separating them.
But they're now in separate tiers.
I'd much rather have Boyd.
All right.
Next up,
we have Sir Anthony Dominguez
is up from 228 to 218.
I think this is just people
realizing they need a closer.
He's the last one left.
He's by a long shot,
the last one left,
and I think he's better
than some of those going ahead of him.
Chris Bubbage is up from 208 to 197.
Yay, yay, yay, yay, bye, bye, bye.
We're all in.
Aaron Nola up from 216 to 205.
Had himself a nice WBC,
nine innings, one run, eight strikeouts,
dealt with the hamstring all of last year.
What do you guys think on Arandola at 205?
I mentioned it earlier.
Velo's up.
I'm, I think a bounce back for Aeronola
looks more likely now than it did.
Would you rather go Arandola or Matthew Boyd?
Boyd.
Boyd. Yeah.
Interesting.
Boyd's going like 10 picks behind him in ADP.
So, you know, that's a little discrepancy there in ADP.
Late round fallers, I'll just, I'll read through a bunch of
these names real quick. Stop me if anything sounds interesting or just way off board.
Shane Bieber is down from 319 to 391. He's just basically forgotten men. No IL on the NFBC,
so I think that factors in here. Bryce Miller down from 279 to 349. He's dealing with an oblique.
He turned in a full bullpen of about 30 pitches here on Tuesday, so we'll see how he bounces back.
I think Bryce Miller is a good bye. I think the fact that he's not dealing with an arm injury,
Makes me a lot more likely to buy him as an IL stash for sure.
Joe Musgrove down from 227 to 265.
I have to imagine that's going to drop even further.
I think it should be further.
Yeah.
I have him more like 290.
Okay.
Logan Henderson is down from 295 to 333.
Could be an interesting buying opportunity.
Had some elbow soreness this March, but he has thrown a bullpen,
but also has an injury history.
Where are you guys at on Logan Henderson?
I don't know.
I'm okay with buying Logan Henderson with a late round pick.
Yeah, the cost is fine.
Yeah, it's worrisome that he had the elbow sprain last year,
and now he's dealing with elbow soreness again,
but I think he's good.
And so at this price, why not find out?
I don't know that the brewers are convinced he's good,
is part of my hesitation with him.
He has only two pitches, really,
and one is a not-so-fast fastball.
But, you know, the results have been good.
They just kept avoiding using him all of last year,
even though every time they did, he was great.
So I don't know.
And was dominant in AAA.
Yeah.
Zebby Matthews down from 310 to 333.
He had a horrific start on March 9th where he allowed six earned runs.
And it looks like Mick Abel could take his spot in the rotation.
So I think this is people reacting to that on Zeb Matthews.
Riley O'Brien is down from 290 to 306.
Oliver Marmull said there could be four different relievers in the mix for saves.
Could start that way and hopefully they settle on somebody eventually,
but I think we all just kind of assumed it would be Riley O'Brien.
That might not be the case.
He's still the first one to draft,
but I don't know that he's the most talented one in that bullpen.
I might give that to Matt Svanson.
Connolly Early is down from 294 to 306,
probably not in the Red Sox rotation to start the year.
But Scott, I have to imagine he will be one of your.
your top prospects to stash on opening day?
Yeah, there's a good chance.
I haven't formed that list yet.
I probably won't form it until the day before opening day.
But, yeah, I don't have a lot of faith in Johan Oviedo.
And if somebody else gets injured,
there's easy path for Early who looked really good,
both in the minors and, you know,
there was a late season call up last year.
And last but at least is Isok Paredes.
He is down from 218 to 229.
What?
I know Scott's buying it.
What?
But if Payne is ready on opening day, I just, I still have a little bit of concern, but.
It's okay to have a little bit of concern.
But 229, it's pretty late.
I mean, I would draft him about 60 spots ahead of that.
Because I think, what, third base is weak.
That's where he's eligible.
I think he's going to become eligible at a bunch of other positions and be a good source of power
at a point in the draft where that's hard to find.
And I like him even more in points, leagues, because the plate discipline is so good.
I mean, you just look at some of the other guys going in the same range at the corner infield spots.
And it's like, okay, Caleb Durbin, he's probably going to play every day.
But yeah, my boy.
Addison Barger, I think, goes 30 spots ahead.
And he's probably not playing against lefties.
So I would guess through his plays more than him.
Over the last week, Addison Barger is going 50 spots ahead.
Yeah.
Hmm.
So I understand it.
I think, I think with Adam, Addison.
and Barger, there's a little bit of people remember, this is my theory anyway, people remember
the outrageous quality of contact metrics he was putting up in the summer and didn't update
to the fact that he got real cold in the second half.
Stop doing that.
He was really good in the playoffs though.
He doesn't, but he doesn't have a long minor league track record.
He didn't hit the ball as hard at AAA as he did at the major league level last year.
And he's probably not going to play against lefties.
I think Barger is relatively, he's like pretty much.
But even just focusing on the guys in the range of Issaq Paratus.
Caleb Durbin, fine, but I think he's kind of boring.
Alec Bohm, I like him as a cheap source of batting average in RBI, but he's boring.
Max Muncie, not going to play every day.
Jake Berger, I have no idea, but I'm not particularly excited about it.
I like Kyle Manzardo, but there are playing time concerns.
I don't think any of those guys are significantly better than Issoc Paratus.
But he could legitimately play less than all of them.
He could play less than all.
But he could play every day too.
I think Muncie and Bome are both severely underrated as well.
But I think Paredes, I think Paredes is better than Bome in terms of ability and more likely than Muncie to be an everyday player.
So he would be my highest ranked of the three of them.
And I, yeah, I think people are a little too fearful, especially.
since they're not consistent.
I mean, with Barger, I think the book is out on Barger.
He succeeds when the ball is, when he gets fast balls down the middle, slightly in.
And pitchers just stop throwing him those pitches in the second half.
And you saw not just the production, but the eggs of velocities themselves, greater.
So maybe he could adjust back, but, you know, we're not reading the same headlines of him doing that this spring.
that we're reading for Matt McLean.
Being fearful is a good way to put it, Scott,
because that's exactly how I feel about ESOC Paredes.
I love the player.
I was with you guys last year.
We all loved Esoc Paredes,
but just a little bit concerned about that playing time,
but I do love the talent with Esoc Paredes.
If he was playing every day,
guarantee there was no question.
Probably like 150.
Yeah, you'd have him 75.
I might have him like 90 picks higher.
I might have him ahead of Alex Breggman.
Yeah.
So I think he's a 30-Homer guy in Houston.
So I'm totally fine taking them around 190, 200.
All right, we're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.
I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.
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And we will be back again tomorrow 9.30 p.m. Eastern Time, earlier start for another live mock draft.
And so we'll see you then.
Bye-bye.
