Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Verlander to the Mets! Trea Turner to the Phillies! - Emergency Podcast (12/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 5, 2022

Justin Verlander is headed to the Mets on a two-year deal (0:55)! ... Why is Verlander going so late in these early drafts (5:00)? ... Trea Turner signed an 11-year deal with the Phillies (9:25)! What are some of the ripple effects (12:52)? Could Turner run more in Philly? Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Oh, baby. The winter meetings are off to a hot start. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Monday, December 5th. Frank Stanfield joined by Scott White. And this time we've got two massive signings. Justin Verlander is headed to the New York Mets,

while Trey Turner is signing a long-term deal with the Phillies. Let's start with JV, Scotty. And the Mets found their Jacob de Grom replacement, signing Justin Verlander to a two-year, $86 million deal. with a vesting option on the third year. And Verlander returned without banging this past season, Scott, winning the AL-Saiung Award to the tune of a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 whip, 18 wins, and 185 strikeouts,

over 175 innings pitched. Your initial thoughts with the move to Queens. So it's a little bit like DeGrom going from the Mets to the Rangers where, you know, I don't. don't think who he's playing for matters that much if he if for some reason verlander had signed with some like bottom feeder club who didn't offer him much hope for getting wins maybe it'd be a different story but of course the Mets are a contender in every respect and Verlander obviously just slides into that de Grom role there I think one interesting

thing we didn't talk about with the Mets rotation is how it's pretty depleted, even with this. So Verlander takes de Grom's place, but they're also other free agents from the Mets rotation, Chris Bassett and Taiwan Walker. So even with Verlander coming in, there are openings for pitchers who we thought were pretty interesting in the past, David Peterson, Tyler McGill.

Now, the Mets are talking about potentially bringing in another pitcher, maybe bringing Bassett back, for instance. So I suspect that's probably going to happen given that they're Mets and that they're motivated and have resources and all of that. But we'll see. As for Verlando, though, I think stock stays pretty much the same.

I've had him as my number one starting pitcher going into next year. I think I'm alone in that regard. But I don't see any reason to downgrade him based on this. Yeah, I do agree. I think the Mets will probably bring in another starting pitcher at least to join that trio up top, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, call us Carrasco.

Not sure that they want to rely on both Tyler McGill and David Peterson in their rotation. So I do agree with you there, Scotty. And you know what's actually kind of crazy about this move from the Astros of the Mets? The Mets scored more runs than the Astros this past season. Would not have guessed that, but it actually happened.

So perhaps even, I can't say there's more win potential because he just had 18 wins. No, I mean, and it's, you know, Astros are like, between the Astros and the Dodgers, who's like the preeminent, dominant franchise right now, right? I mean, Astros have been to four of the past six World Series, winning two. So, you know, obviously Verlander can't get any more win potential than he had with them, but the Mets should be good too.

I mean, we could get into maybe just how good is Verlander. I mean, there's the reason why he's kind of not the consensus pick. for number one overall pitcher. I think, you know, the fact he's going to be 40 next year, you've got to start there. But also, he's coming off the season, it was his worst since 2017 in terms of swinging strike rate. And in terms of K per 9, same thing, worse since 2017. So it was a season where, you know, even though he had the 175 ERA, even though he won a Cy Young, Justin Verlander, by those strikeout numbers,

didn't look as dominant as he has in recent years, obviously prior to the Tommy John surgery. And I don't know if maybe that's making some people kind of iffy on him. He's Justin Verlander, and he just had a 175 ERA. And in terms of just like pure stuff, I don't see, there's not like diminished velocity. You know, I don't see any obvious red flags beyond the strikeout. number itself. Any year when strikeouts were, you know,

strikeouts seem to be falling in general, I just don't think that matters much anymore. I think because offense is going down because home runs have become harder to hit. A pitcher doesn't need to be like this dynamic 11 strikeout per nine inning type of guy to be dominant. And obviously the season Verlander had just showed that. Yeah, I wanted to talk a little bit about that price tax out. I mean, you hit on a lot of the points I wanted to mention. There's been 68 drafts done over at the NFBC. Again, we're still kind of working with a small-ish sample size here

and things are going to change throughout the off-season. Verlander is currently the 11th starting pitcher off the board at an ADP of 51. So that is the fifth round of a 12-teamer. That's the fourth round of a 15-team league. And it's just kind of confusing for me, Scott, because last year, as we got closer to draft season and the end of March, this is basically where Verlander settled in last year. You know, fourth round, fifth round in some drafts as well.

And then he goes out and did what he just did. Wins the American League, Syong. Does it over 175 innings. So, you feel relatively good about the workload and even the health. I mean, I'm trying to play devil's advocate. You mentioned the 40 years old. He missed some time in August and September due to a calf strain. it's kind of shaky in the postseason

he had a 5.85 ERA and a 1.55 whip, but again, that's a super small sample size. It seems kind of crazy to me, Scott, that he just kind of has the same value, the same ADP as last year, considering the season that he just had, and it sounds like you agree with that. Yeah, obviously, if I'm ranking them number one.

I think part of the issue too, maybe even less than the strikeout issue, because I didn't hear much, I didn't hear many people making much of that during the season. so I don't know that that's really influencing people. It's just the fact that he's old. He's 40. And, you know, Scherzer's not going especially high.

I think I have Scherzer number two. I have Rolander 1, Scherzerzer 2, and they're both being downgraded in early mock drafts. So what's the common variable there? Well, they both pitch for the Mets now. But aside from that, they're both really old. I think it's starting pitcher, though, I just unless there's a sign of diminished skill,

and that's not the case for either of those guys. Age is very low in my risk factor rankings for starting pitchers specifically. Durability is number one, because obviously pitchers are getting injured all the time and the more pitchers use, the higher the chances of an injury. And I think, you know,

compared to some of those young guys, Shane McClanahan's of the world, the Spencer Striders of the world, if you're a pitcher who's proven time and time again, you can take on this monster workload as Verlander and Scherzer have. That counts for more to me than the

fact you're kind of old. I'd rather know that I'm getting Ace volume from you if I'm going to pay an Ace price tag. And it's possible that this is the year either one of those guys just loses it, has diminished stuff,

gets hurt, whatever, that's possible. But that's kind of true for every pitcher regardless of age. And these guys at least think, they've at least stood the test of time and have proven the durability, proven their durability over and over again in a way some of those being drafted ahead of them on average,

haven't proven even once, you know? So, yeah, I'll take for Lander 1 and 2. Realistically, I'm probably not taking either because I'm not taking a pitcher that high, but I think they deserve to be as highly regarded as they ever have been. But to your point, Scott, I mean, they're not going high per se. They're going in the fourth round, fifth round of some of these drafts. And if you start your draft off with three hitters and you could still get one of these guys as your SP1, it seems like a fantastic strategy, at least early on here in the process. The only thing I'll point out with Scherzer and, you know, we'll have time to talk about this. He's starting to show a little bit more signs of breaking down, a few more injuries the past couple of seasons, but someone like Verlander or even Zach Wheeler, who's also going in this range, I really don't have many concerns on either one of those guys. And if I can just say real quick, even acknowledging that point on Scherzer, that he

has missed a little more time with small injuries in recent years, when he's healthy, he still gives you that, he's still that seven-inning pitcher consistently. That really makes a huge impact to your team's bottom line. And so, you know, I'm not going to stress about that so much. much with him either. Let's stick in the National League East and slide on over to the Phillies. Dave Dombrowski is at it again, man. Trey Turner signing an 11-year, $300 million deal, which will take him through his age 40

season with the Philadelphia Phillies reunited with his buddy, Bryce Harper from back in their nationals days. And we spoke about Trey Turner recently. He's got on the podcast, recapping the shortstop position. Trey Turner just incredibly consistent year over year. he hasn't finished lower than six overall in Roto each of the past three seasons. Just looking at this from, I guess, a macro perspective. It is a lineup downgrade.

There's no doubt about that. The Dodgers were first and run scored by a lot. The Phillies were seventh in baseball. Both ballparks are very good for right-handed batters. They're both top seven and park factors. The Phillies were slightly more aggressive in terms of steals. They were fifth in baseball. The Dodgers were ninth.

So maybe all those things considered, it's a slight downgrade. just because of the lineup, but I don't know that this is going to change much value for Trey Turner either. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, obviously, Trey Turner was a very high draft pick when he played for the Nationals too.

Arguably had his very best years in fantasy were with the Nationals. Arguably, I guess it's pretty close. Yeah, I think he's just going to keep doing what he does. I look to see if maybe he had a especially productive history at Citizens Bank Park, having spent all those years in the NL East, not really, his track record there is whatever. I mean, it's a small sample anyway.

So I don't take much from that. You know, it probably means Gene Seguro's not going to be back for the Phillies. They could sign him to play second base, but that would mean Bryson Stott has nowhere to play, and he kind of came on late in the year, and I think they're invested in him in their lineup moving forward. So we'll keep an eye at it. out where Gene Cigura ends up landing.

But, I mean, you got to like Trey Turner and Bryce Harper in the same lineup again with some other big bats there, J.T. Rio Muto, Rees Hoskins. I imagine, I imagine Trey Turner's just going to be a fixture there in the leadoff spot, and maybe he'll get back to running a little more. I mean, everybody's going to be running more next year, right, because of the rule changes, but relative to the rest of the league, maybe Trey Turner will get back to running more than we've seen the past two years. Only 27 stolen bases for him in 2022.

So that was kind of a disappointing number, considering stolen bases are the main thing Trey Turner is known for. Also, a great source of batting average year over year. But yeah, hopefully a few more steel chances with the Phillies. Yeah, I think that's really possible, Scott. I mean, you look at what he did this past season with the Dodgers. He played most of his games as either the second or third hitter in the Dodgers lineup. So, you know, just leading off for the Phillies, he should have more opportunities to run moving forward.

So it would is, I think he's fast enough to steal 40 plus bases. It's just does he want to? Do the Phillies want him to run that much, which, look, if you sign Trey Turner, I think you probably want him to run. So wouldn't surprise me one bit if he gets back over 30 or even if he approaches or even exceeds 40 steals this upcoming season. Once again, a forward Trey Turner. Scott, you spoke about some of the ripple effects here. Bryson Stott obviously slides over to second base, which you talked about.

And I guess everybody else in the Phillies lineup just kind of slides down one spot. I would assume, you know, Kyle Schorber can continue to bat second. He obviously has a great OBP. I think that makes sense. And then Reese Hoskins and Rio Muto, Castellanos, counting stats are going to go up for all of those hitters as well. And then on the Dodgers side of things, you know, Gavin Lutz, Pencildon at short, Chris Taylor at second,

outfield still needs some help. I think the Dodgers are going to make moves. I don't know what they're going to do. They could be in on like Correa or Swanson or Bogarts or maybe they even get in on a judge. They're going to do something. They have to because like I was noticing this the other day before this, before Turner is even clear he was moving on, just what their starting lineup looks like according to roster resource right now.

So you got Betts, Freeman, Wilson, Max Muncie, top four. The bottom five in the Dodgers lineup right now, according to roster resource, Trace Thompson, Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas, James Outman. Like, that's not going to stand,

obviously. So it's hard to even get into too much, even get into it too much what it means for the Dodgers. Will Gavin Lux be an everyday player in 2023? There's a pretty good chance. I don't know that it'll be is there everyday shortstop

I kind of doubt that but he's of course shown versatility in the past mostly I'm keeping an eye for the Dodgers I'm keeping an eye on whether there's a path for Miguel Vargas right now there appears to be

do they bring back Justin Turner do they bring back other high-end guys you know we'll just have to wait and see but I'm I'm becoming more optimistic that that there will be an opening for Miguel Vargas on opening day. It's just with the Dodgers, you know, they can kind of,

they can kind of close any opening whenever they want, it seems. So we'll see if that holds. All right. Last question here on Trey Turner. Let's say you're drafting Scott in a 5x5 Roto League. How early are you drafting Trey Turner today? Well, you know, I've said at every chance that Aaron Judge is my number one overall pick. and I don't think that's the consensus view.

I would also take Jose Ramirez ahead of Trey Turner. So I have Trey Turner three. Okay. But he hasn't moved with this. He was three even prior to signing with the Phillies. So you may see others out there, have him number one overall in five by five leagues. The reason I don't isn't because,

oh, it's because he signed with the Phillies. It's just because I didn't have him number one in the first place. All right. Well, we're going to wrap there again. Justin Verlander headed to the Mets on a two-year $86 million deal. That includes a third-year vesting option. And then Trey Turner, massive deal with the Phillies,

11 years, $300 million with likely more moves to come. This is only day one of the winter meetings and we're getting all of these moves already. So perhaps we see some more of the short stops, some Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon over the next couple days. And when we do, we will be here for you with another emergency podcast. For Scott, I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again later on tonight. Bye-bye.