Fantasy Baseball Today - Way Too Early 2025 Breakouts Including Junior Caminero & Spencer Arrighetti! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Last week, we gave you way too early sleepers. This week, the breakouts. Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today in Five. Welcome into FETI 5 on Saturday, October 19. I am, for example, joined by Chris Towers, way too early breakouts for 2025. Chris actually sent these out as part of his Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter recently, so make sure to subscribe to that if you want to read more.

Starting point is 00:00:24 And first up, no surprise here, Chris, Junior Camerreiro, who is loaded with Prospect Pettigree, tons of potential could give us batting average and power, place for Tampa Bay. We think what happened to their stadium is unfortunate, obviously, with the hurricane going on. So we'll find out where the race are going to be playing next season, but regardless, it feels like Camerro could be breaking out.

Starting point is 00:00:46 Yeah, here is, we'll start with this. Here are the five hitters before 2024, the last five hitters to have at least 177 plate appearances in their age 20 season before 2024 because Jackson Churio, Jackson Holiday, and Junior Camerr all did it. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzy Albiz. If you knew nothing else about a player except that they got that many plate appearances in their age 20 season, you're in pretty good company already. Junior Camerreux, he didn't dominate in his first real, except.

Starting point is 00:01:29 extended stretch in the majors. He had 249, OPS right around 725. It wasn't great. But the fact that he's here, that he held his own as a 20 year old. He was technically 21, but it was age 20 season. The fact that he was already there is good enough, let alone very good minor league numbers, top prospect and baseball arguably. Max exit velo of 116.16.3 miles per hour, which is an elite mark. One of the fastest bat speeds in the majors already as a 2021 year old. everything points to Junior Caminero becoming a superstar. Maybe it doesn't happen in 2025, but it's the type of profile you want to bet on.

Starting point is 00:02:11 He could be an Austin Riley level hitter, someone who doesn't hurt you in batting average and is a standout in home runs and run production. That's the kind of ceiling we're talking about here with Junior Camerra. From one top prospect to another former top prospect when we were excited about quite a bit heading into this past season, Wyatt Langford, who did let us down. Obviously, that ADP rose to insane levels

Starting point is 00:02:36 as we got closer to the start of the season. But he did figure something out in September where he hit 300 with eight home runs, seven steals, and an OPS nearing a thousand. Hopefully that's something he can carry over into 2025. Had an expected Wobah of 388 over his final 100 plate appearances as well. It wasn't a fluke. The underlying numbers were there.

Starting point is 00:03:00 And the underlying skill set, even when he was struggling, always looked good. He hit the ball hard. He had good enough plate discipline for a 22-year-old at the major league level, especially. Elite athleticism, you know, I think it was 99th percentile in sprint speed. So you look at the overall package and look, why Langford is going to go down as a cautionary tale for fantasy in terms of not drafting rookies too early. by the last couple of weeks of the season, he was a top 75 pick and basically every draft.

Starting point is 00:03:31 It didn't work out. I'm willing to go back to the table because you look at September, his underlying numbers basically looked like what Brent Rooker did last season. Brent Rooker with 25 steel upside, it sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the ceiling for Wyatt Lankford.

Starting point is 00:03:50 I'm still very, very excited about the potential here. Let's keep on with the theme of top prospects or former top prospects, and talk about James Wood, who in his first taste in the majors, looked pretty good. 264, nine home runs, 14 steals. Obviously, the guy is massive. He's tooled up.

Starting point is 00:04:08 Seems like there's very clearly another level or two that he can get to in his major league career. The problem is, will the ADP be too prohibitive? I think that's the only thing that can maybe stop us from getting too excited if he's like a second or third round pick right away in 2025. He won't be worth that. I don't think we can justify that. But it does feel a little like L.A. Dela Cruz this time last year where the flaws are obvious.

Starting point is 00:04:35 And they are glaring and they're the first thing that you can talk about if you want to be a pessimist with him. He struck out too much as a rookie. He hit the ball on the ground too much. Hit the ball to the opposite field way too often to maximize what is plus plus raw power. On the other hand, he had a full season pace of 18 homers, 85 runs, 82 RBI, 28 stolen bases. He hit 264 as a rookie, despite those flaws. If he does nothing but that next season,

Starting point is 00:05:06 you're talking about a probably top 75 player, probably, I don't know, Brian Reynolds with twice as many steals. Like that seems like a pretty good player. And we know that's not the ceiling. The thing about James Wood is, despite the strikeouts, despite how big he is,

Starting point is 00:05:24 he's like six foot seven, pretty good approach at the plate, 21% chase rate, 80% zone contact rate is actually pretty much average for a guy that size. So it's just, I get the downsides, I get the risks. This just feels like the kind of profile you want to bet on with a guy this young. Let's talk about some pitchers that could break out next season. And the name that will be on every breakout list, Chris, will be Spencer Schwellenbach, who as a rookie just had a 335 ERA, a 104, Whip, and among pitchers with 120 innings, he was top 20 in K-minus walk rate, FIP, expected ERA, and swinging strike rate.

Starting point is 00:06:03 It feels like everything is there for the full season breakout in 2025. Yes, 16th best, K-minus walk ratio in baseball. And only Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, and Terek Scoobel had both a better strikeout and a better walk rate than Spencer Schwellenbach among pitchers who had 120 innings in 2024. Like you mentioned, also top 12 swinging strike rate, 13.5%. I suggest there could be even more strikeout upside here with Spencer Schwellenbach. He's got a whole arsenal full of swing and miss pitches. The splitter looked really good.

Starting point is 00:06:39 He's got a curveball as well. That looked like a good swing and miss pitch. So it's just, if we're just talking about skills, I think Spencer Schwellenbach already looks like a top 15 or 20 pitcher in baseball. The only concern he had never thrown more than 65. winnings before this season. So there are our inning and health concerns for Shalabok in 2025, but just in terms of skill set, he might already be a borderline ace. Let's wrap up with one more pitcher breakout. Spencer Arrogetti, something with these Spencer's, right? Lots of strikeout upside.

Starting point is 00:07:10 Final nine starts for Arrogati at 272 ERA 11.4K per 9 with a 14% swinging strike rate. That includes three pitches with a whiff rate over 37%. Chris, I think there's a lot of variance here. I think the good starts are really good. The bad starts are really bad. But man, if Spencer Arrigi could tap into that good more often, yeah, we could have a huge season on our hands. If you were following along on a daily basis, you probably remember, I think it was early September.

Starting point is 00:07:38 There was a point wherever. I think he had double-digit strikeouts and back-to-back games. Everyone was like, yes, Spencer Arrogati must start pitcher. I think he had a matchup against the White Sox coming up or something like that. We were all so excited and he completely flopped. And I think, you know, that might have been the last thing. you heard about Spencer Argeti, but like you mentioned, 272 ERA, 11.4K per 9s over his final 10 appearances. Stuff's always been good. Even early on, you could tell when you watched him. Hitters had trouble

Starting point is 00:08:08 when he was consistently commanding his pitchers. He just didn't do it very often until the second half of the season. Once he did, Spencer Argeti showed really, really high upside. There's a chance he's the best pitcher on the Astros in 2025. I think the ceiling is that high. And I say that as a big fan of Framber Valdez and Hunter Browns. So, yeah, I think the ceiling for Spencer Arugetti is incredibly high. All right. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today and Five, and we will be back again next week.

Starting point is 00:08:46 Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

Fantasy Baseball Today - Way Too Early 2025 Breakouts Including Junior Caminero & Spencer Arrighetti! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

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