Fantasy Baseball Today - Way Too Early 2025 Busts Including Matt Chapman & Luis Gil! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Way too early bus candidates for 2025. Up next on Fantasy Baseball today in five. Welcome into FBT and 5 on Saturday, October 26th. I am Frank Stamfield joined by Chris Towers. And first up, bus candidate number one for next year. You have Bryce Teran, Chris, who really was only a standout in one category. Granted, he was amazing. He had 50 steals.

Starting point is 00:00:23 Those were the third most in baseball. I don't know what else he can do besides that. Yeah, I mean, look, early on last season, he hit 280 in the first three months of the season, or 280 or better. So, like, if he could do that again, he makes a bunch of contact. Like, there are some skills here. He's a perfectly viable starter in a Roto League, and even in a head-to-head points league, he'd be a fine option. The problem is, from that point on, he had 214. He walks a decent amount.

Starting point is 00:00:53 He's got zero power. He's not likely to hit an advantageous. spot in line. So you just, you add it all up and like, if he hits 260, it's probably okay. If he hits 225, which is a realistic outcome, I mean, he wasn't much better than that in 2023, then it might not matter how many stolen bases he gives you. And look, it's worth prefacing all conversations about bust. Everything comes down to price. And if Bryce Terang is, we get to March and he's being drafted 140th overall, all, I'm probably not going to have any problems with Bryce to ring.

Starting point is 00:01:32 Like that, that would probably be fine for the stolen base upside alone. If we're talking about having to invest the top 100 pick in him, there's no way I can do that. That's just the overall skill set just is not strong enough at a time when steals just aren't that hard to find. Let's move on to Matt Chapman, who just had one of his best seasons of his career, 247 with 27 home runs, 98 run scored, and 15 steals. granted, he had 11 total steals in his other 2, 4, 6, 7 first seasons combined entering 2024. What has you down, Chris, on Matt Chapman?

Starting point is 00:02:09 The biggest thing is just this was a weird season for Matt Chapman. Like a lot of the things about it don't make sense. Like you mentioned, 15 stolen bases, four more than he had in his entire career before this. Well, it's a new team, right? So maybe it's just the giant season. He's actually like a better athlete than I think a lot of people give him credit for. I think he was 84th percentile on sprint speed last season. Obviously, one of the best defensive baseball players I've ever seen in 30-something years watching baseball.

Starting point is 00:02:42 But then there's also the fact that he had a 328 on base percentage. He hit fourth and fifth in the lineup. And he scored 98 runs. That was weird. Like that doesn't happen very often. and usually see 98 runs scored from high OBP guys who hit a ton of homers or guys batting at the top of the line. So I just, I think you look at those two things and I just don't see those two things particularly being sustainable. I'm not also sure that I bet on 27 homers or a 247 batting average being sustainable in that park.

Starting point is 00:03:15 So it just, it seems like a situation where I don't really think Matt Chapman is a worthwhile top 12 third baseman, even at a fairly weak position. Willie Adomas is coming off a monster season where he had 32 home runs, 112 RBI, 21 steals. He is a pending free agent, so we'll have to wait and see where Willie Adamas winds up the season.

Starting point is 00:03:40 I think this is just pretty clearly you don't want to pay up for a career year from Willie Adamas. Yeah, and one thing it makes me think of and it's a very different type of player, but it was Glaber Torres. Remember that second season in the majors? He hit 38 homers. I think 13 of them were against the Orioles or something like that.

Starting point is 00:03:58 It was like one of the highest totals we'd ever seen from one player against one team in a season. He's never come close to that 38. And that's the kind of thing that sticks out to me. And with Willie Adamas, he had 13 three-run home runs this season, which tied the major league record and played a huge part in his, what was it, 113 RBI. He had a huge number. 112. That was a pretty good guess.

Starting point is 00:04:22 but you know 30 homers 21 stolen bases 13 more stolen bases than his previous career high like this is a solid hitter coming off a career year heading into free agency we don't know where he's going to play we don't know what the lineup's going to look like any of that I think he's a solid player I think expecting bad batting average maybe 250 25ish homers maybe 12 steals even that would be the second highest toll of his career it just Just not much of what Willie Adamas did last season felt sustainable, even though I do think he's pretty good. Like, it's not, this is not a bottom falls out situation. It's a don't pay for the career year, like you said. Luis Heel had himself a very impressive rookie season where he had a 350 ERA 119 whip. You watch him pitch. He's electric. He's got that hard fastball.

Starting point is 00:05:18 He's got a really good slider and change up. but took a step back in the second half and control is a real, real problem for Luis Heel. So what has you out potentially on Heel heading into 2025? Everything. So to start with, he had the 340 ERA. Underlying metrics do not back it up. 414 FIP, 436 XFIP,

Starting point is 00:05:43 even if you want to make the argument that, okay, well, there's something about Luis Heel, the amount of movement he gets on his pitches, the velocity that makes it harder for hitters to pick it up. They don't hit the ball hard against him. He still had a 383XERA, which accounts for quality of contact. That's fine, but it's not a standout number. And then you look at the final 17 starts. He was really good early on, uncharacteristically avoided walks. Final 17 starts, 492 ERA with just three quality starts in that span. So things really came apart. I know he He had a, I think it was a back injury in that spur of lad injury.

Starting point is 00:06:23 So that explains some of it. But then I think you also have to take into account. He threw more than 120 more innings in 2024 than he did in 2022 and 2023 combined. So I think you also have a long injury track record, huge innings increase, and all of the performance red flags in there. It just, I don't know, I can see an outcome where Luis Heel takes a step forward with a control and legitimately pitches like an ace. Like Sandy Alcantra with less volume but more strikeouts.

Starting point is 00:06:55 I think that's a possible outcome. Remember, Sandy Alcantra, someone who really struggled with control early on his career as well. I just, there's too many things working against him for me to make that bet. Renel Blanco of the Houston Astros is another pitcher at a breakout season where he had a 280 ERA, a 109 whip just under a strikeout per inning. But like Luis Heel, a lot of those underlying metrics, not necessarily buying what Ronell Blanco just did.

Starting point is 00:07:22 Yeah, only three qualifiers outperformed their XERA by more than Blanco's 1.17 run gap. Nobody who qualified for the ERA title outperformed their fit by more than the 1.35 run gap. So whichever one of those stats you go with, it just doesn't add up. Renal Blanco, sub three RANP, RAC. It looked like around the end of the summer

Starting point is 00:07:46 that we were finally able to, relegate Ronnell Blanco to the to the waiver wire for good. And then he comes out and gives up two runs in 24 innings in September, added on a couple of scoreless innings in the wildcard game against the Tigers. I don't know. It feels like he might be okay. I could see like some Chris Bassett type seasons from Rennell Blanco here, but I think you look at the ERA, what was it, 280 this season something like that?

Starting point is 00:08:14 Yeah, 280. Yep. this is an ERA that probably should have started with a four. And it seems like a streamer at best. He's another guy who had a big innings increase as well. The Astros had to manage his innings at times this season as well. So it just, I think he's a late round streaming starting pitcher at best. Again, that is Renel Blanco.

Starting point is 00:08:36 And if you want to read more about way too early bust, then you should subscribe to the FBT newsletter because Chris wrote about a bunch of them. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today and Five, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

Fantasy Baseball Today - Way Too Early 2025 Busts Including Matt Chapman & Luis Gil! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

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