Fantasy Baseball Today - What Matters in Spring Training, Mock Draft Review, Draft Strategies, and More (03/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 11, 2020

Swing changes, velocity jumps, new pitches, and more ... We go through what matters during spring training after breaking down a H2H categories mock. Scott and Chris break down their teams and strategies for the draft (3:30) and some of the more surprising picks, including Trevor Story, Justin Verlander, Vladimir Guerrero, and Aaron Judge (24:15) ... Then they break down their strategy for every league type (30:20) before moving on to what you need to know for spring: The latest injuries (41:40), new pitches and velocity readings (49:15), and swing changes (53:50). Plus your emails at [e-mail] ... Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our March Madness Bracket Challenge at http://2020podcast.mayhem.cbssports.com/e/d7feed30238637cc2387331ab3061dc1fb5219555f0e9a8b?ttag=BPM20_cpy_invite_new Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. We've got an absolutely jam-packed show of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast here for you today. And because of that, we had to kick Adam.

are off so we would have more time for myself, Chris Towers, and Scott White to talk. Scott, are you excited for the show? Yeah, I mean, we all know Adam is the most long winded of us. That's his M.O. He just always like takes these long pauses and goes on these long rants and then just, you know, really tries to make the show all about him. So we had to get him out of there. So we could really get down to brass tack. What we're going to be talking about today, head-to-head categories, mock draft that we did yesterday. We're going to be reviewing that, looking at my team, Scott's team, our favorite team, which it would be nice if it was different than one of those first two. But we'll see. Biggest surprises of the draft as well. Then we're going to be talking

about draft strategies for different league types, what matters in spring training. And of course, your emails at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. But first, I want to tell you guys all about the baseball today draft kit which went live on cbssports.com yesterday you can go to cbsports dot com slash draft kit put in your email address we'll email you directly a copy of it and what it is it's a downloadable printable cheat sheet for your draft we've got scott and ice sleepers break out some bus multi-position eligibility cheat sheet scott's tiers scott's rankings scott auction values for head-to-head and roto leagues so you can bring it into your draft room it's the next best thing to having scott and i drafting with you i guess so again cbsports.com

slash draft kit also go to cbsports dot com slash newsletter and sign up for the fantasy baseball today newsletter so you can get our content directly in your inbox every single day and also you should check out scott white's uh fantasy baseball cheat sheet that just went up yesterday that basically is just a compilation of basically everything you need everything we've written here leading up to the start of the season pretty much yeah and uh some of that stuff gets buried some of our best content i feel like we tend to write earlier and then it gets buried and uh this is this is a way to make sure it doesn't it's it's you go to that page and you'll be linked to everything yeah it's great but also the draft kit is

The draft kit, we get a lot of requests for printable materials, and that's probably the best way to go about it, is downloading that draft kit, printing it out, taking it with you to your auctioner draft, and then you'll never be flying blind. Scott, could you hear my cat just now? I could not, no, I saw him. She's decided to jump up on the chair that I'm sitting on and yell at me while I'm doing the podcast. So if you hear any tiny little meows, she still hasn't developed her big cat meows. So that's what that is. Don't be alarmed. No cats were harmed in the making of this podcast.

Now let's move on to our final head-to-head categories mock draft. We did this on Tuesday afternoon, March 10th. So 16 days before the start of the season. And this is a Yahoo! Yahoo style mock draft, right, Scott? Yep. Yep, a bunch of Yahoo's. That's what we tried to be yesterday.

And that basically means, so we have our standard head-to-head lineup, which is catcher, first, base, second, base, third base shortstop, three outfielders, utility, five starting pitchers and two relief pitchers. Yahoo adds an extra utility spot, so there's two instead of one. It kind of makes it easier to draft those DH-only guys. And also, it divides its pitching up so that you're required to start two starting pitchers. you're required to start three, sorry, two relief pitchers, two starting pitchers, two relief pitchers. And then there are four flex pitcher spots to allow for kind of the diversity and strategy that that head-to-head category leagues are known for, you know, are you going to punt wins

and strikeouts? Are you going to punt saves? Are you, how are you going to arrange your pitching staff that way? And, you know, there is a 25-inning weekly minimum. so that you can't just entirely ignore starting pitchers. You probably have to start three, four to be on the safe side. But beyond that.

Yeah, you got eight pitcher spots. They've got to average, like, what, three and a third innings to get you to 25? Yeah, but you really don't want to fall short. Yeah, you probably want... The penalty is huge. You probably need at least two. Yeah.

So what was... You could maybe get away with two, but yeah. Depends how cautious you want to be. You talked about the diversity of strategies with a head-to-head categories league what was your strategy going into this draft? Did you have one? Were you planning on punting a specific category? Looking at your team, we'll go over that soon.

It doesn't look like you really did punt any category. Did you just go with a broad-based approach in this one? Yeah, you know, I don't like punting categories. And the approach, one of the good things about the approach I'm taking to starting pitching is that I shouldn't have to nurse ERA and WIP. the way someone who takes a more standard approach to starting pitching would.

In theory, my starting pitchers are going to be good enough in those areas that wouldn't be of great benefit to me to stack my lineup with relievers and help in those categories where you'd obviously be sacrificing and wins and strikeouts. And so let's talk about your pitching staff to start off with. You got, I guess, four of your top 37 and then one guy who used to be, in there. Shane Beaver was your first pitcher selected, right? Yes.

And then Lucas Gialito, you've got Zach Granky, Chris Sale, Mike Soroka as your starting lineup starting pitchers, and then Matt Shoemaker and Michael Paneda. So you could be, and very likely will be going into the season with only five starting pitchers on your roster. Are you worried at all about that kind of? I mean, we're not playing this one out, but if we were, would you be worried about that kind of deficit,

or do you think you can manage it? Because you can only start six at the most. Yeah, and I have three relievers, Mark Malanson, Joe Jimenez, Branding Kinsler, so that's definitely giving saves the chance, but clearly not investic a lot in it. Those are three low-end relievers.

So I have a full lineup. This is a format compared to head-ed points where I'm not so worried about maximizing two-star weeks because it's more about preserving ratios than shooting for a big total. So as long as I can fill out a lineup with pitchers I trust,

I'm okay with it. Now obviously Matt Shoemaker, I wouldn't say he's inside the circle of trust. He's missed a lot of time with injuries the past couple years, but when he's healthy, I think he'll be pretty good to maybe,

they'd be very good he's he's a sleeper we haven't talked about much but yeah we definitely haven't talked about him probably haven't talked about him enough for sure and where did you get chris sale as well 123rd overall third pick in the 11th round so i've done a handful of slow drafts over the last week or so since the chrisale news came out and you know i had initially said i will i'll take Chris Sale in, say, the 130 range. Then I got to the 130 range and couldn't pull the trigger. And one, I had the 130th pick and then I had 143rd. And I think I passed on him both times.

I think he ended up going, you know, a little bit later than that even. So, 123. Those are roto leagues that you're doing it for, right? So those are 14 hitter spots to fill as opposed to the 10 in this league, which might make a difference too. I mean, once you get to the point that you're filling out your bench basically, which we weren't quite there in round 11 where I took sale,

but there are enough, I knew there would be enough hitters left to fill out the lineup as I saw fit, and I wasn't investing a lot in Closer clearly, so I didn't need that pick for those. And I thought it was good. I was happy to get him. if that pick ends up being a total waste, it's,

if the impact on my season will be minimal. Yeah, but obviously if it works out and he's back in a month, the impact could be huge. That's something we've talked about a little bit, but I don't think, I don't know if people quite get how, like the,

the hit rate for a 10th or 11th round pick is going to be pretty low anyway. So, you know, that's a pretty good time to start taking those kind of chances. Even though, like I said, I've been too much of a coward to actually move on to that. It's hard in those roto leagues, especially if you're doing like a 15 teamer. That's how I think I've seen James Paxton fall as far as he does, which, you know,

maybe like round 14, 15, that range for him. When his timetable looks a little more, a little better, a little more assured than than Chris Sails. He's not as good as Chris Sale, but he's pretty good. He'd be one of those pitchers who would rank among the 36 if he was healthy. And it's just you're worried about filling all those hitter spots, what's going to be left if you take a detour there for Paxton. And speaking of James Paxon, we're going to talk about injuries from spring training later

as part of our What Matters for Spring. We're going to be looking at injuries, velocity readings, new pitches, all kinds of stuff for spring training that has nothing to do with spring training stats because we're all smart enough to know not to overreact to spring training stats, right? Right. Unless it's Jorge Salare like you brought up yesterday. Right, unless it's something that confirms your prior assumptions. But I did want to note since we brought up James Paxton that he said today that mid-May seems like the best. case scenario for his return to the rotation. I know we were talking about that yesterday and, you know, there was some hope that maybe it could be earlier, but he played catch for the first

time today and said mid-May seems like the best case scenario still. So that's the one thing to keep in mind with him. Even with that, you know, if he falls to the 150 range, I think he's still worth that bad. And let's talk about your offense, Scott. Who was the first pitcher you took in this one? You had the third overall pick, right? So Christian Yelich? the first hitter, yes, was Christian Yelich. Always a good start. Let's run through your lineup. Wilson Contreras at catcher, Josh Bell at first base, Jonathan V.R. at second base.

Jeff McNeil at third, Corey Seeger at short. Yelich, Schwabre, and Robles in the outfield. Mark Kana at Utility and J.D. Davis at Utility. We've met our Mark Kana, J.D. Davis quota for the show, and then you've got Jorge Polanco, Willie Calhoun, and Brandon Lowe on the, Brandon Lowe. Yeah. On your bench.

You definitely didn't punt steals. No. You know, you've talked a lot about the steel scarcity and how that, that and starting pitcher are the only currencies to matter this year. But it often feels like you, when we're talking about your drafts, you feel like you don't often go hard enough after stolen bases. And then this one was it just a case of, you know, VR, Roblo, I guess those are your main two besides Yowlitz falling to points where you like them more?

I think so. I think it was an instance of maybe everyone else in the league not paying up quite as much for steals. When did I get VR? Was it? 46 overall. What round was that? Fourth round. Fourth round?

So the end of, or early in round four, I guess. No, late in round four. Yeah. Yeah. And Ozzy Albiz, I think, went right before. I was about to take all these, but then when he wasn't there, I figured, okay. Two picks before you. Let's get all these steals.

I don't know. I think maybe part of it is also that I knew I'm trying to put myself back in the frame of mind I was in at the time I did it. Because it didn't I didn't feel like a conflict.

I think part of of it is just I've rarely gotten a chance to pick in the top three. And so the options become different when you get there to what you're used to seeing. And maybe players that felt like a reach before don't seem as much like a reach. I was more conflicted on the Robles pick than the VR pick. Yeah, and that's round seven early in round seven. it was between him and I'm trying to remember here Jorge Salare the big power bat who is having a bad spring it was between those two

and having already invested in VR I thought I was further behind in power but I also thought this is a mock draft let's see how it goes I know power's going to be easier to find later. And I don't think I'm disappointed in the way the power production turned out. So I... Salar didn't come back to you. He went off the board at 88th overall five spots before... Six spots before your next pick.

Yeah, he almost did. I was definitely queued up to take that pick. So that was part of the thinking. Part of it, too, was... I don't feel like starting pitchers were drafted as aggressively in this one, so there was less urgency to grab. those like most most drafts I'm sure I've taken a starting pitcher in round four where I took VR so I think it was just the circumstances of the of the league as opposed to

a conscious effort to go harder after steals but it's it's nice to be able to relax in that you know round 10 1112 range and not try and figure out a way to catch up in that category it's it's I have to say I enjoyed that All right, we are, we're going to move on to my team. I have to ask God, did you see what I did with my team? I'm very curious of your thoughts. It's a not very Chris Towers team, but I wanted to try it out. There's a couple of very Chris Towers guys.

Right. I saw it because you tweeted it out, and I never missed a tweet, Chris. Oh, good, good. I don't know how you have time for anything else. I don't know how you have time to tweet them all. But yeah, I rarely. miss it Chris Towers tweet. Twitter doesn't let me for some reason it thinks I want to see them all.

Oh, you poor soul. So yeah, my team, I went with a super high upside approach to really the whole team, but specifically my offense. And we'll start

with the offense. I've got Will, I had the first overall pick. I was not there to make that pick. because I forgot that the draft started at 1.30. So I was auto-drafted Mike Trout. No, no, Coonia. You got a Coonio.

Ronald Cunia, sorry. So that's a decent outcome. I'll take that. That's fine. I gave you a cunea because I heard you took a cunia first overall last time you had the chance in a Categories league. I did. I was trying to think like Chris Towers there.

Again, you poor soul for trying to think like Chris Towers. So my hitting roster is, Will Smith, Luke Voigt, Kestinherent at second base, Vladimir Guerrera, third, Tim Anderson at short, outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Ronald Cunia, Luis Robert, and then utilities were Kyle Tucker and Jordan Albrez, Jordan Albrez. It's exciting. There's a lot of potential there. And, you know, a handful of those guys, you know, specifically, you know, this was the first time I've taken Robert. I think it was only the second time I've taken Guerrero and it was the first time I've taken Jordan Alvarez. Part of that was an intentional strategy to see what my team would look like

if I kind of went with all the super hyped players plus John Carlos Stanton who everybody hates. The problem with this kind of approach is when you're leaning so heavily into high variable players and I think, I don't know who's the safest player in my lineup. There's not a lot of proven guys, but if it hits, it could be the best offense in the league. The problem with the boom or bust approach is oftentimes half of them will boom and half of them will bust and you'll just be in the middle. So what are your thoughts on this approach? Yeah, I don't often do it. there's not much of a safety net there.

And usually high variable players, you hope for the upside, but bet on the downside. And that's why I generally like to wait until late to take them, as opposed to early. I don't like the early ones, the ones that go early so much. Now, I have my share of Keston Hura, Jordan Alvarez, obviously. Kyle Tucker, who wasn't among your earlier picks, I presume you got him in like round, what, 11, 12, something like that.

Kyle Tucker, 11, first pick up round 11. So that's fine. But yeah, Vladimir Guerrero having Luke Voigt as your starting first baseman, Louise Robert, who knows what he's going to give you. It could be huge. But particularly with the steals and the batting average, I'm not sure what to expect. So I want to do it I guess the argument for it Particularly if you're somebody who plays for

You know money You're in it for the stakes Yeah You're in NFBC or one or yeah So don't you don't want to play for fourth place or whatever I that's the argument for it But that's That's not why I play fantasy baseball personally

I've been thinking about this a lot lady I think there are basically, fantasy baseball attracts three types of people. People who really like baseball and really like numbers, and so it just seems like a natural fit. They like the analytical aspect of it. There's people who see it as a way to make money over something they already like. And then there's people who just like competing and like winning and really, really hate losing. And I think I fall into that third bucket.

I do not like losing. I am not willing to sell out so hard for upside that I finish in last place. It pains me deep inside for that to happen. I want to be in it till the end. And so I can't take this approach. Yeah, that's funny. You say those, I'm definitely in the first category. I don't really have that competitive streak.

I never had it. I don't get mad when I lose in sports. mad when my team loses. So that's interesting that you brought that up. Part of my approach in this one was mostly just this is probably the 20th draft we've done for 2020, maybe more. And sometimes you just want to see what happens. And also some of the guys were just, you know, good values. We're going to talk a little bit later about some of the biggest surprises. And one of the ones that stood out for me was Vladimir Guerrero, still being there at 73rd overall.

He's someone who tends to go more in the 50 range. And so that's a spot. You know, when I've taken him, the one time I took him before, I think it was in that 50 range. And so once he was there for me, I kind of did pivot more to this strategy. And, you know, the one thing I will say about my team is I think I did a pretty good job of building up my pitching staff,

despite going much heavier on hitting. The one thing I don't have is safe. I drafted Edwin Diaz in like the 12th round, and looking back, I should have just punted saves and gone with another player, because he's the only reliever that I have. My pitching staff is Patrick Corbyn and Noah Cindergarde is my top two. Jordan Montgomery, Jesus Lazzardo, Kenta Maida, Edwin Diaz, Mierkez, Mitch Keller, and then on the bench I've got Garrett Richards and Jose Orkitti. So I don't quite have four of your top 36. Do I have three? Is Luzardo in there? he is not because i give him no chance of meeting the innings requirement though while he's pitching he could perform like that i mean he's looked so good in the spring yeah yeah and mya is not in there either right no he's not he's not though he should be well there may be the upside there but i don't want to i don't want to presume the innings there's hope that he'll get more of a true starters workload now that he's not under the Dodgers thumb and their, you know,

the contract incentives that their pitching depth gave them the ability to exploit. I think the twins will have to lean on Kenta Maeda harder and maybe he'll approach 200 innings because of that. If so, then he probably would be toward the back end of the high-end, trustworthy pitchers. But just based on what we've seen in the majors, I can't assume that for him. All right. And do you have a favorite team? I know you wrote up the write-up for this one.

Was there one team that stood out for you besides Scott Whites? Yeah, so I didn't really take the team dissection angle when I was riding it up. And so I didn't get a chance to explore them fully. and this might be difficult to sum up on the fly here because you have to weigh different categories. Do you have a favorite team? No, I don't. So let's move on. Okay.

All right. I want to talk about, you know, close out the draft discussion with just some of the surprises in the draft. You know, some of the stuff that stood out. And I think in the first round, one thing that really stood out was this was a league where Trevor Story went sixth overall and it's something that I've seen something that I've defended and I don't think you're quite as on board with that

are you? Trevor Story in the first round you said? Sixth overall. Sixth overall. I don't rank him sixth overall so no. I would take Garrett Cole ahead of him. We're talking categories leagues. I would

take Trey Turner ahead of him because if you're paying up for steals, make sure at somebody who for sure is going to give you steals is kind of my thinking there. I have story 10th overall in this format. So behind Lindoror, behind Colin Turner

like I said, and also behind Alex Bregman, who steals potential I think is being maybe overlooked a little bit and just as a hitter I mean, yeah. There's no comparison there. There's a few hitters who compared at Bregman. I took Bregman 10th overall

on a points league. It was thrilled. about that yesterday. The other thing, it seemed like there were really good hitter. You know, you talk about pitching not getting pushed up quite as much, but there were some really, really good hitter values in the third or fourth range, and particularly the fourth. You look at the opening of the fourth round. You've got Zander Bogartz at 37, Glaber Torres at 38, Cattel Marte at 39, Pete Alonzo

at 40, Jose Altuve at 41. That run feels like. like just bang on values each time. Now, because of, it's not like there were a ton of hitters who went ahead of them, who shouldn't. I think, like Charlie Blackman went ahead of that group, Raphael Davers went ahead of that group, Bryce Harper went ahead of that group, George Springer went ahead of that group. You can quibble with all of those.

But it just feels like that Bogart's, Torres, Ctele-Marté, Pete Alonzo, Jose Al-Tuvae run to open the fourth round. was just great value. What do you think of that? Yeah, and I think it's another side effect of pitchers going earlier than those of us who've played fantasy baseball for a long time are used to seeing because just the round before, there was Kershaw, there was Giolyto, this is round three, early round three,

Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, who's, you know, has the questionable timetable now. I thought he would last longer than round three. He did not. Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, who, by the way, himself is now questionable for opening day because he's recovering from illness. So, yeah, I mean, half of those guys could drop to round four theoretically and your league. And then that would allow all those hitters back in there.

But yeah, I do think, like Talmarty, I would definitely take over Springer and Blackman. Alonzo I think most people would though you and I are probably on the lower end when it comes to evaluating Alonzo Altuve there's a position scarcity thing that might compel me to take him ahead of Springer and Blackman but they're all like there wasn't a clear reach there

I don't think yeah and then to discuss just some of the injured guys really quickly. Justin Verlander, 33, already said that, feels a little rich. I agree, although, you know, if this is the situation where if we get relatively good news on Justin Verlander's timetable, 33 overall, if he misses four starts, it could be great value. You know, he could still be a top three pitcher.

It could be. John Carlos Stanton, oh, sorry. I want to leave no doubt that it's great value. That's kind of how I approach these guys. And often people are so scared of them that that happens. Like in the case of Paxton, like I think was the case with Chris Sale in this draft. And Justin Verlander in the third round just isn't quite there for me. John Carlos Stanton went 72nd overall to me, obviously.

Because I'm reaching the point, you know, he took live batting practice today. it's possible he could be ready for opening day. Now, that presumes a lot of things about John Carlo Stanton that may not be true, like that he could avoid a setback. Or another injury. Sure, but... Straight biceps. He is making progress.

My cat's yelling at me again. Sorry. And then Aaron Judge went 101st all over on. I thought that was really interesting because five days ago, Aaron Judge was hurt for sure. He wasn't playing baseball, but he was still going in the second or third round in a lot of leagues. And do you think this is an overreaction? I don't.

Just hearing what I hear about stress fractures and a rib cage, I mean, that's not something you can hide. It's right there in the middle of everything that you're doing. Now, they're supposed to reevaluate him in two weeks as of Friday, so come the end of next week. If he's saying he's pain free and ramping it up again, then I'm going to have to move him back up in my rankings. But I'm not, I'm not hoping for more than like a mid-May return based on what I know now. All right. And then Chris Sale, 123rd to you and James Paxson 140th to George Kurtz. So pretty good values there. Sum up your head-to-head categories strategy in two sentences.

Okay, so let me just have an underlying statement for all of these that I want four of my top 36 starting features. That goes for every format, and that is priority number one for me in every format. So just keep that in mind. Okay. In head-to-head categories league specifically, I want to make sure that I am impacting categories. categories. That sounds dumb. What do I mean by that? I'm not summing it up very well, am I? Obviously, you need steals impact. And I guess the point I'm trying to make is you have fewer spots to work with than in a rotisserie league. So you need to make sure that those hitter

spots are more impactful and you can't get sidetracked by these kind of players that are middle of the road in a few things. You don't know exactly. how the distribution of stats is going to play out. So it's just something extra to be mindful of. I don't know. That was a terrible thing. That was a terrible description. I'm sorry.

Sum up your strategy for a roto league. Roto league. So this kind of applies to head-to-head categories too. Is that the things you're paying up for are high-end pitchers, of course, and stolen bases. And you have to take both of them earlier than you're comfortable. taking them particularly if you've been playing fantasy baseball for a long time and you they're a big part of what's forming your early round what your early round picks are being devoted to is a lot of it is that but the good news is there are hitters who are who performed

more like high-end players last year than just the distribution of talent their draft status can't reflect it because they just get pushed back because there are so many hitters who performed that well. So you can count on them being there and you need to really shoot for that upside later on after passing up the high-end hitters early. How many pitchers do you want by pick 100 in your Roto League? I want by pick 100, five probably. Five of your first nine picks generally. At least four. Okay.

What about head-to-head points? How many of your top 100 are going to be pitchers? Maybe as many as six, but maybe as few as four. You have to go even earlier for the high-end pitchers there, but once those 36 are out, there's not a lot of incentive to keep drafting them. So it just depends how the distribution goes there. I think you had one draft where you went six starting pitchers. in your first eight, I think that was kind of what inspired you to do your stolen bases and starting

pitchers strategy piece, right? I'm not sure if it did or not, but I don't think the rest of the fantasy baseball community was on board yet with emphasizing starting pitching the way I was, because I haven't been able to do that since. Yeah, for me in head-to-head points, I'm more likely, I mean, my strategy in a lot of is going to be to try to find, try to take what the rest of the draft is doing and find values there. And so in head-to-head points, I've found a lot of times that tends to be pivoting more towards hitters and, you know, kind of the more classic approach that fantasy players have taken

for a long time is focus more on hitting, draft more upside pitchers late, and try to throw as many darts at the board as possible. I've moved away from that strategy overall a little more. You know, I'm more likely to take a starting pitcher in my first two picks than I ever have been this year. But in head-to-head points in particular, I've found that I think the best values tend to be when you focus on hitting early. Kind of what we were talking about yesterday, though. You're right. And that's what makes it hard.

Yeah. Like if we're just talking about in a vacuum, what is the right? pick here a lot of times in the third or fourth round it's the hitter but then when you pull back after the draft is over and look at the composition of the team it's like whoa the holes if you're just if you're just counting holes the holes on the pitching staff of that team are much bigger than the holes in the hitter spots for the team that went pitching have pitching heavy early I think if I have a blind spot as a drafter and as an analyst It's probably that I don't know if it's a blind spot.

It's just kind of my worldview is that I'm more pessimistic on all pitchers, except for the late round guys. And then I fall in love with a handful of late round pitchers. And I convince myself that Mitch Keller and Dylan Sees and Josh James are definitely going to be good and I can rely on them. And so when I look at like my head-to-head categories, League that we just did talk about. I have Mitch Keller in my starting lineup. And I would assume that would make you kind of queasy.

And for me, it's like, no, Mitch Keller is going to be awesome. That's no probability. Yeah. And so I think that's just sort of a philosophical difference and maybe a blind spot on my part. What is what leads you to believe that about Mitch Keller? that you can have this confidence he is going to perform like a high-end pitcher. Is it just... He throws really hard, Scott.

You just like the skills, basically. Yeah, I just... And so you trust the skills to play up. I like with pitching specifically, I spent a lot of time identifying underlying skill sets that I think will play up. And his in particular, you know, there's ace potential. Sure, there's definitely ace potential. Specifically with him and with Joe Musgrove and to a lesser extent Chris Archer, as I've talked about,

I think all of them were held back by the pirate's antiquated view of how to approach starting pitching in the past. I think this new approach is going to help get the best out of them. And so I'm very optimistic about that. But that's also acknowledging that things could go really wrong. It's just that I tend to be more pessimistic about starting pitchers. as a population. Okay. You know.

So you say you're leaning, you're willing to go a little earlier with a starting pitcher than you were at the past, but you're still largely depending on high volatility guys to break through at the end of the draft. Yeah. My typical draft is like one top 10 pitcher. Ironically, a lot of it's been Justin Verlander. Seems like it, yeah. And then Patrick Corbyn has been a really popular pick for me.

Charlie Morton has my number two. Then maybe someone from like that 30 to 40 range. And then just a ton of my late round dart throws. So you're saying you're naturally distrustful of pitchers. And there's a lot of volatility there. There's a lot of injury risk. And yet you're not, your approach isn't protecting from that. Because I'm acknowledging it too, but by taking four instead of two.

It's just, it's different. It's different approaches to that risk. You're trying to get a lot of good pitchers in the hopes that you will have some good pitchers. Right. My approach is to pay less draft volume in the end. And again, it's changed over the years. I used to be willing to not take my first starting pitcher until the ninth round. I don't do that. Me too. Me too. But that was that was longstanding Like fantasy tradition Yeah, I mean I was on the other extreme It's it's amazing how in basically four or five years time I've gone to now being one of the most vocal proponents of taking

Of loading up on pitchers early yeah And look it could totally backfire I could I could The environment could change abruptly the environment could change abruptly the ball could be different and it changes the math and a lot of pitchers get hurt and so a lot of my investments don't pan out and I end up having a terrible season. I mean I have gotten plenty of pushback to proclaiming this as as loudly as I have. So it's not like it's not like

I know what's going to happen. But I would say that where you are on pitching is about where I was two, three years ago, and I've just kept advancing that direction while you're kind of starting down that path. So it'll be interesting to see what I don't like to use value words like advancing, Scott. All right. You're moving. I think what shifted it most for me was there are a lot of factors. And we could do a whole podcast on all the factors contributing to it.

kind of are. The biggest one that contributed to it was the handling of young up-and-coming pitchers. Because before it was like the way to attack the volatility of the position was to trust that there would be these breakthroughs that either we didn't see coming or that they got pushed to the end of the draft. And then the pitcher would break through and throw 190 in it. and B is out of nowhere high-end pitcher. Like you could count on that happening. You could count on enough pitchers doing that that you could make that your approach. But now even when one of those pitchers is good,

he's usually being handled so carefully that he's coming nowhere near an ace workload. And there's just no hope. There's really no hope of closing that gap. But there are so few pitchers making the ace workload now that 150 innings is the new 180 innings. That's one of the things. stuff still are.

And they're just further ahead now than they used to be. Hopefully. All right, we're going to move on to Spring Storylines. We're also going to try to get to some of your emails before the end of the show. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Spring Storylines. Scott, you write a Spring Notes column two or three times a week through the beginning of the season. I've had a running list of a story called What Matters for Spring, where I'm looking at injuries, new pitches, swing changes,

lineup news, position battles, and prospects gaining hype. And so wanted to focus on some of that stuff. A lot of injuries, a lot of stuff we've talked about. But I wanted to give some updates on some of this stuff. So right now, we're kind of in a holding pattern for Justin Verlander and Chris Sale. Jordan Alvarez is dealing with a knee issue likely to be back in the lineup by this weekend, right? I think that may have changed just yesterday. Dusty Baker expressed some concern that he might not be ready for the season.

Alvarez. I mean, it's concerning. He's 22 years old. He's only played one season in his career. Now, part of that was he was in partial season rookie ball for a year. But, you know, 2018, I think he only played 90 games. He made it through most of last season. Did deal with a knee issue at one point.

but now after a long off season off, he is dealing with knee issues. That's a concern. He said he was playing through it last year, which is amazing considering. But also concerning. Yes. Yeah, he says as long as he, as long as he warms up properly, it shouldn't be an issue. But I guess now he's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's. in such a bad state that he needs this recovery time.

And so he may not be recovered in time. But it's just, yeah, it's just strange that somebody so young is having this kind of chronic issue and what kind of underlying, what's going on underneath there is something that eventually they'll want to get to the bottom of. And it does seem like there's a chance that it just ends up completely sidetracking his season because he never gets quite right.

And that's scary. I would not count on him getting outfield eligibility. No. No. He and Dusty Baker both said originally that they wanted him to play more outfield this year, but it just seems like they're going to need to protect the knees too much. All right. Some other updates. Mike Clevenger threw a bullpen as he recovers from a knee injury. John Carlos Stanton took live batting practice today. Both of those guys moving in the right direction. James Paxon, as we talked about, played catch, but still looks like mid-May is the best-case scenario. as he said today.

Eugenio Suarez should start playing D.H. This week. That's good news as he recovers from shoulder surgery. And at this point, are you expecting A. Eugenio Suarez to be ready for opening day? How are you treating him? I want to see him actually play. I would feel really good about him hitting a home run or two.

And if he does, I'll probably move him back up to more like seventh than my third base rankings than 11th where he is now. But I want to see it now, right? Aaron, no, who's their manager? David Bell, another. former third baseman said that the swing looks right to him. So we'll see if he's right. It's a good sign.

Luis Reyes recovering from that fractured wrist could play this week. So opening day not out of the question for him. And from all accounts, the brewers do expect him to be there starting shortstop as soon as he's ready. Orlando RC is having, well, he started off his spring grade. I haven't really seen anything since he homered like three times in the first six games. He has five home runs. That's two more. At last check.

Yeah, and he made some mechanical adjustment. Swing changes in an effort to generate more power. Was the number six prospect in baseball as recently as like 2017, I'm pretty sure? Yeah. I'm not... I mean, two strikeouts and 25 at batts too.

That's impressive. It's good. Yeah, I don't... I don't know. I think R.C. is clearly going to have the job from the start, and if he keeps this going, then that maybe changes the timetable for Areas. But I think that's an unlikely scenario.

It's a possible one, but it's unlikely that he's this good into the regular season. Carlos Carrasco dealing with elbow inflammation. That's normal for him at this time in spring training. So worth keeping in mind, Gary Sanchez dealing with a back injury. There was some hope he would return this weekend, but I believe he's dealing with the flu now. And so that could push his return back. not sure if opening day is in question, doesn't seem like it.

But another guy who has dealt with a lot of injuries, surely it's a concern that he's hurt in spring training. And, you know, it sounds like J.T. Real Muto has kind of moved into a tier of his own at catcher for you, right? Yeah, kind of. Yeah. Not officially, but maybe when tiers 3.0 comes out, I'll be there. Tears 3.0, good tease.

A.J. Puck, returning from some shoulder discomfort, opening, Day. A little bit in doubt for him. Griffin Canning had a platelet rich plasma injection. Just kind of don't know with him. Still worth drafting the late rounds, but there's a chance he gives you nothing. Michael Kopeck made his return from Tommy John surgery yesterday and looked incredible. So do not forget about him. I would be surprised if he's in the opening day rotation. He's got about 15 days to get up to speed after coming back from Tommy John surgery. So I would expect we see on a rehab assignment, but do not forget about Michael Copac with your last round picks.

Yeah. Was hitting 101 miles an hour easy yesterday. I think his slowest fastball was 98. The command looked great. It was warning. And that's that's the thing I think everybody's forgetting because if you look at the overall minor league numbers, I mean, who's dissecting the game log for Michael Copac from two years ago? Scott White.

final, his final set, well, I haven't remember because I was writing a prospects report at the time, his final seven starts in the minors, he issued four walks in those seven, and his numbers were just incredible. And even the four starts in the majors, it's not like walks were an issue. There wasn't

really anything that was an issue until that last start when his elbow wasn't right, and that kind of blew up his numbers, but he looked he looked like he was on the verge of something special. All right, and Alex Verdugo, still dealing with that back injury, hasn't swung a bat, since August.

I'm taking him in the reserve rounds in a lot of my drafts, 15 or 12 team, but it's looking like we may not see him for a while. Now, I think it's a stress fracture in his back. Is that right? I'm sorry, who are we talking about? Alex Verdugo. Yes. So that's a concern.

But I believe in the skill set. I think he's going to hit for average in a good. Red Sox lineup, so once he's healthy, I'm willing to put him out there. It's just a question of when at this point, probably not if yet. And then we'll talk about some new pitches, velocity notes, and some swing changes to keep an eye on. Swing changes are one of those things that it's really tough to know if they're real in spring training. It's more like a, oh, I'll keep an eye on this. But first, we'll look at new pitches and velocity notes. Jose Brrios talked about this yesterday looking to make his curveball more vertical, less horizontal, more of a true curveball,

less of a slurve, which, you know, might lead to less apparent motion, but might be more effective in generating swings and misses because, you know, it's always been one of those cases where he looks like he's got great stuff and then he doesn't really get the kind of strikeouts you'd think he would. So if this helps him generate more swings and misses, that would only be a good thing in my eyes for Jose Barrios. Tyler Glass now working on a splitter and a change-up, which is terrifying for opposing hitters because his fastball and curveball were so good last year, and he was so dominant with only two pitches. It's not clear yet if he'll be comfortable enough to throw those at the beginning of the season. He's kind of working on them a little bit in

spring training, but something to keep in mind. Matt Boyd, he's looked really good in spring training. His most recent start was excellent. I think it was six strikeouts in three innings, maybe four innings. And he is throwing his curveball and change up quite a bit. I think he had six strikeouts in his most recent start. I think it was yesterday. One of them was definitely on the changeup, and I think he might have had two on the curveball.

And so he was mostly just a fastball and slider pitcher last year and got so many strikeouts. It might have made them a little too predictable. Wow. He talked about that at the start of spring training. because he just got pummeled by home runs in the second half, or really over the final four months. Of course, part of what we were crediting for his breakthrough

was emphasizing his best pitch more than ever, kind of the Patrick Corbyn trick from a couple years ago, throwing that slider. So it's, what's the tradeoff going to look like there? It's hard to say. I will say with Patrick Corbyn, one thing that I think went a little unremarked upon with him was he also did, in that breakout,

start throwing his, he stopped throwing his change up, started throwing a curveball a little more, and used the curveball more like a change up. Now, he didn't throw it much. I think it was more like 8% of the time, but it was just kind of a third show me pitch that helped keep hitters from keying in. And I think in Boyd's case, the best case in area is probably still throws the slider 40% of the time, but throws the fastball less. I think that would be the change that I would want to see for him. Yeah. Noah Cinderguard, we've talked about this a little bit, but he's got his slider velocity back. He's throwing it in the 91, 92, 93 mile per hour range after averaging 89 miles per hour last year. That could be why his swinging strike rate went down. So that's something

to keep an eye on if you're hoping for a Noah Cindergarde bounce back. Chris Paddock has a new curveball grip. He's kind of experimented with it since, really since the miners started experimenting with it in the second half of last year. He's another guy who probably needs a third pitch, especially because he's a fastball changeup, needs probably a good breaking ball to, you know, really help. He probably doesn't need it, but... To live up to the expectations everyone has, I think he might, because his peripheral roles weren't as good as the overall numbers last year.

No, they weren't. He... I think his ex-fip was over four, actually, right? It was in that range, yeah. Yeah. Jacob Grom, working on making his curveball more of a show-me pitch. in spring training. Justice Sheffield's ditched his four seamer. We'll throw exclusively sinkers slash two seamers. And he's credited that with a little bit of an improvement in his

control so far, someone who's really been forgotten after being. There's a little bit of top prospect fatigue with him that he'd been on lists for such a long time, but never got the call up. Right. But he's someone I'm drafting. He's a great this spring. Yeah, he's someone I'm drafting late in my drafts now too. Throwing a lot of strikes. I don't know if he's issued a single walk. And though two seamers are kind of

out of style because they're not as good for generating whiffs as like a rising four seamer, 12 strikeouts and 8 innings. Yeah, 12 strikeouts to no walks and eight innings for Justice Sheffield. That's an infinite ratio. It is.

Pretty good. All right, and then some swing changes, again, these are more in the realm of hypothetical, although I will say in Wilson Ramos case, you know, he did spend the offseason working on generating more elevation, more loft with his swing. He had the lowest average, average launch angle in baseball last season, still managed to hit 280 something, like 286, didn't have much power, was a big disappointment from his very good 2018 when he, I think, was the number one catcher on a points per game basis. If he wasn't, he was pretty close. And so that's a case where he can just get back to that,

hitting the ball in the air a little more often, could go a long way. He's available at a decent cost in drafts right now. So Wilson Ramos went 22nd in the head-to-head categories league. Now that's a one-catcher league, but still, that's great value. Yeah, I have a hard time buying into the 32-year-old catcher, because most catchers are just done by that point. having a transformation. He still hit the ball really hard last year, though.

Sure. It would help if he was having a good spring. He's not. All right, Eric Cosmer trying to hit the ball in the air more. Talked about that. I think earlier this week, he's always hit the ball really hard. He's always hit really well with runners in scoring position.

He always hits the ball really hard on the ground. So if he can be more like a 25 to 30 homer guy, He's a good value in the 200 overall range. Clint Frazier has a new timing mechanism with hope to generating more bat speed. That's a good sign. He's got great raw power. Started to live up to the expectations a little bit when he got the chance last year. And it looks like he could get the chance to start this season.

Yeah. To start at the start of the season. I think there's some prospect fatigue there too. But in five outfielder leagues, he probably needs to be drafted. Timing mechanism would also help with his. plate discipline, you think. Hope terms of timing it up to make contact. Seven walks to three strikeouts so far in 28 plate appearances.

All right, let's move on to some emails. As always, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the way to contact us. This one's from Matt. Gearing up for drafts this weekend, one of your thoughts on insert sound of Scott White, getting a text message live right here. No text messages today, Scott. It always jinxed it.

It's going to happen now. Yeah, maybe I'll text you. just to make sure we get it in there. Wanted your thoughts on a former steel specialist, once again in a hitter's park. What are the chances Jose Iglesias recapture some of his Cincinnati magic hitting in Camden,

thinking a cheap version of VR for a deep roto league? I don't know what, I don't know if I remember magic. I hear that typing. For Jose Iglesias. That typing is loud. We all got you looking at something there. Okay, yeah, he was better than I thought last year.

288, 11 homers, only six stolen bases. So I think, like, I could see him hitting 12 homers with a decent batting average in Camden Yards. He's, you know, he makes enough contact. The question is, can he get back to being a 15 stolen base guy? It does sound like he's going to play every day for their Orioles. So, you know, someone to keep in mind in a deeper league, in a roto league. Yeah, I would not count on steals there, beyond five or so. And, you know, even in a best case scenario, you're still talking about low-end power by today's standards.

So, yeah, I can't get excited about this. Sorry. If you're looking for that type of player in the American League East, I prefer Jose Paraza. I think he has a better chance of being an impactful steals guy. but is he going to play enough because Michael Chavis, I assume is going to play more bouncing between first base and second. Okay. That's fair. It's a light round pick, Scott.

No need to cool. All right. James writes in six by six categories, 10 team league. Seems like it should be easy, but he's having a hard time deciding between three of these four players. Markana, Justin Turner, Kyle Tucker, And Nick Solac. This is a group of players you like.

Two players you like a lot. Who are you picking? I can only pick one. Three of the four. Oh. That's easy. Mark Hanna. Well, yes.

Kyle Tucker would be the first choice. But yes, Mark Kana would be the second choice. And Justin Turner would be the third. Nick leave out Nick Solac. Especially in a 10-team league. I'm not sure the ceiling is quite there for him to be so impactful. All right, Christopher writes in, I'm in a quality starts league, and I'm wondering if there are any high-end starting pitchers

inside of Scott's top 36 slash 37, who are potential liabilities because they might not pitch deep into games. Blake Snell comes to mind. Blake Snell does come to mind. I think any of the young guys, really, it's always going to be a concern with guys like that. Let me think here. So I don't think it's going to be a huge,

issue for Mike Soroka just because he's so efficient. Brandon Woodruff, he's very efficient too. He was on a limited pitch count early last season so that he wasn't pitching deep into games at first, but once they turned him loose, he had an easy time. Does a really good job of limiting contact. Limiting hard contact Mike Sorok. Brandon Woodrow, sorry.

Tyler Glass now might struggle to get a lot of quality starts. Yeah, that's a good one. We don't have a lot of evidence of him throwing more than 90 pitches. And given the fact that he dealt with a forearm injury last year, that could be something that limits him. Frankie Montas, just because the track record isn't there yet. Jesus Lazzardo has thrown six innings in a professional start one time in his career. So I would not expect a ton from him.

Carlos Carasco is another guy. He's not in that group, but yeah. Sure. Carlos Carasco, another guy who just kind of with the fact that he's dealing with a little arm tenderness right now coming back from that illness you don't know how effectively he's going to be able to pitch deep into games and you don't count

Shohei Otani in that group do you I need to check that I shouldn't he's being drafted in that group he's not someone I would expect a lot of quality starts from right I shouldn't I'm not sure if I've updated the number since we got a clearer idea of this timetable that's something I need to check

as often as I cite that number that's something I need to double check. And then Hengen Riu. I'll throw Hianjou out. The Blue Jays have already talked about limiting his innings. Don't know whether that means that he's going to get skipped in the rotation or whether they're just going to limit him to five or six innings in most starts,

but there's some risks there as well. All right. And then Mark from Birmingham writes in Yankees suck go Blue Jays. So I think you can tell where this email is going to go. I don't think I've heard you guys discuss this on the podcast, but the Yankees have a tradition of getting great pitchers and turning them into garbage. Why aren't we worried they will do this to Garrett Cole? Add to the fact that he's going from a team that has a reputation of improving pitchers.

There we are. Was that you, Chris? That was not me. It wasn't. I want to see who it is. I'm going to call this person out. Was not. Ah, somebody in one of my fantasy leagues letting me know I'm up.

Wow. Not my wife this time. So add in the fact that Garrett Cole is going from a team that has a reputation of improving pitchers. Chris was planning on drafting him in round one, but the more he thinks about it, the more I think it might not be a good idea. I think the Yankees will find some way to turn the number one most drafted pitcher into a dumpster fire. So, I guess the, who are the examples of Yankees, guys the Yankees ruined? Javier Vasquez. Right, like we're going.

Randy Johnson. Jared Cozart. Or no, Jared Wright, Carl Pavano. Yeah, those are. But, like, more recently, Jahap was terrible last season, but he was really good when he first got there. Right.

Sonny Gray has admittedly, like he's talked openly about how much the Yankee style just doesn't mesh with the kind of pitcher he was. One of the things that I would keep in mind with that, though, Sunny Gray was traded to the Yankees. Garrett Cole chose to sign with them. So presumably they talked about that. I mean, you can't know for sure, but also,

Garrett Cole's really freaking good. And I don't think he's just going to forget the things that made him great in Houston. Yeah. Who's the last one who was this high end and wasn't a guy in his mid to late 30, you know? Yeah. And Sunny Gray's kind of an odd pitcher. He's had a really up and down career even before he joined the Yankees. And he's just been a different kind of pitcher every single year.

seems like. Yeah. Like, Garrett Cole knows exactly what he needs to do to succeed. He sounds, when you, when you see features written about him, he sounds like he has a very clear understanding of what he's doing and why he's doing it. And I don't think, I don't think we have to worry about coaching, becoming an influence there. The only concern is he gave up a lot of home runs last season relative to the amount of contact he gave up. He's a fly ball pitcher. He will be pitching in a tougher ballpark, in a tougher division with some really tough ballpark. So that's the thing to keep in mind is I could see a scenario where Garrett Cole has like a 3-4 ERA, but leads to the league in strikeouts, wins 18 games, and is still an elite pitcher. It's hard to

see things, unless there's an injury, it's hard to see things going much worse than that. And he should still have an elite ERA or elite whip even if the ERA does creep up because it's mostly going to be home runs it's not going to be batted balls that's right that's right okay so I am checking my

magical list of starting pitchers here which has been reduced to 36 with the Chris Sale injury but I think I was also originally including both Otani and I was including Paxton who I clearly don't want as my fourth guy.

I'm happy to take it, but more as my fifth or sixth guy. So this list may be down to 33 now. Oh, wow. The attrition rate. See, this is why you don't invest in starting pitchers, Scott. The attrition rate... That's why you invest in more of them. So you can withstand them.

So there's only 33 of them left. 10% of them are gone? Yeah, I'm going to have to update this. Starting pitcher strategies piece. All right. Well, while you do that, I'm going to let you go. Because it's time to end the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Scott, thanks for being here.

As always. Thanks for hosting, Chris. Been together these notes. You're my rock. Thank you. What a lovely ending to the show. Bye. Mew.