Fantasy Baseball Today - What You Missed in September! Late Season Standouts & More (1/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 5, 2023

Link to Scott's article- https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/fantasy-baseball-everything-you-missed-once-fantasy-football-started-from-prospects-to-surprises-and-more/ What do we make of the late-season surges by both Jake McCarthy and Joey Meneses (4:45)? ... Can Oneil Cruz maintain his strikeout improvement (11:32)? ... Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo were awesome down the stretch (18:15). ... Are we concerned with Shane McClanahan's shoulder (25:35)? ... Gerrit Cole allowed a ton of home runs in September (29:55). ... News (39:10): Rafael Devers signed a huge extension with the Red Sox. ... What about Mike Trout's back (44:45)? ... Bo Bichette saved his season (49:17). ... Do we trust Josh Hader again (51:30)? ... Is Max Muncy back (53:40)? ... We wrap up with some starting pitcher returns (53:30). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. What the heck happened in September last year? Let's find out. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, January 5th.

Frank Staple joined by Chris Towers and making his triumphant return. New Year, New Him. It is Scott White. Woo! Welcome back, Scotty. How were the holidays? New Year, et cetera. What's going on, bud?

They were great. I don't know that I have anything profound enough to say that would live up to say that. In the lead up, like in the pre-show lobby, Frank said like, New Year, New Year, New You. And, you know, I don't know if this, like, comes off wrong. But, like, I feel like no person has ever been less New Year, New Year, New Year than Scott. Like every time we're like, hey Scott, what happened? Nothing. I have nothing going on in my life.

I spent a lot of time in a car. I drove 1,500 miles and all. Wow, that's a lot of miles. I got tired of driving. You know, whenever you go on a trip that long, you are guaranteed to have a near accident or two. And so that makes you never want to do it again. But then you do because it is, it remains the most.

most cost effective way to travel, at least when you have a family for, even with fuel costs being what they are, it remains the most cost effective way to travel. So you end up doing it again and taking your family's life in your hands again over and over again. Yeah, no, I'm pretty, coming in on a dark note, right? That's, you know, it's funny. My kids were watching Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer, like the classic, you know, 1964 Rudolph. The Rendoes Reindeer, 1964, long time ago, right? So the opening credits, they have the opening credits playing, you know, and all the people who worked on the, like, claymation or whatever it is,

names popping up. And I just blurt out, all these people are probably dead. And it didn't phase my kids at all because they're used to daddy saying dark things. New Year, same Scott after all. Today on the show, what happened late in the season, and in September once football started, Chris, I know that obviously you make that transition a little bit earlier. I love this idea because some people, Scott, just stop paying attention to baseball once football season starts. And it's like, finally Scott's going to catch up, you know?

I think it's the other way around considering I wrote the article that inspired this podcast. Well, someone's a glory hound. Scott basically gave it away. We're going over an article. We're not going to get through everything because this is a massive article. I'll post a link in the podcast and the YouTube description,

but you can search it out if you want to, just go to Google, write, what happened in September fantasy baseball, and it's one of the top links there, but I'll post it anyway. We're going to go through some of the biggest things that happened and kind of fill Chris in, fill in whoever's kind of returning

to the fantasy baseball world and let you know who helped win some championships, maybe who hurt us late in the season, some injury related items, some prospect call-ups, a lot going on. But let's jump right in, and we are going to start with some pleasant surprises. And I think the two biggest names here are Jake McCarthy and Joey Menesis, which Scott highlights in the article, if you don't know who these players are or if you didn't know who they were before they got called up,

that's perfectly fine because most of us didn't really know who they were anyway. Jake McCarthy was the third most rostered player on CBS championship winning teams. I got that data at the end of the season, and obviously Jake McCarthy was a big reason for a lot of championship teams late in the year. He was recalled on July 11th, and from that point forward to the end of the season, he hit 302 with five home runs and 22 steals, which led all of baseball. Joey Meneses, on the other hand, a 30-year-old journeyman. If you want to do the lazy comp thing, I guess we can say he's the Frank Schwendell from this past season compared to, obviously, Schindel from 2021. Joey Menace has got a chance to play with the Nationals. He played 56 games.

He hit 324 with 13 homers and a 930 OPS. So he was pretty awesome down the stretch as well. Chris, I guess we'll just start with you. Do you know anything about these two? Are you interested in either of these two? Joey Menes is Jake McCarthy. Yeah, Joey Menace is also known as the Battle of Bull Run. Civil War battles would often have two different names

depending on the body of water or landmark that they were, no, that's not right? Okay, no, fill me in. Yeah, Joey Meneses, as I mentioned, he got an opportunity to play for the Washington Nationals late in the season, and he was awesome. So I think he's going to have this chance, at least early, heading into this season as well. They did just sign Dominic Smith, but Joy Minnesas can either play a corner outfield spot or he could DH, whatever it might be. Scott, do you have any interest now?

I guess I'll give you the early ADPs on these. According to NFBC, Jake McCarthy at 129. He's a 31st outfielder off the board. Joey Minesis going exactly 70 spots later. ADP is 199. What do you think about the early price tags for McCarthy and Joey Minesis? Well, I don't know that I'm particularly moved by either. For McCarthy, obviously, he's getting that big stolen base markup that we've become accustomed to

in recent years, and as our audience is probably tired of hearing, but maybe Chris towers not so much, we're expecting stolen bases to increase significantly across the league next year. So I don't know that, even if McCarthy can sustain that pace, which was big. I mean, he stole 19 bases over the final two months. If you just take those final two months, that would have been the 25th most stolen bases in baseball. So it was a big contribution in that, in that, uh,

highly coveted category. But I don't, I don't think, I don't think people who pay up for that are going to be as rewarded for it in 2023 as, as we've gotten used to, to them being in recent years. So I don't know that I want to pay that, talking to 12th team league and 11th round price tag for somebody who's not going to provide you a lot of power. Now, I'll field thins out so quickly that, you know, just from a position scarcity standpoint, Maybe that makes sense in a five outfielder league, but it's not something I'm going to make a high priority, that's for sure.

Join Vanessa, the price tag is a lot lower, and so just for that reason, I can see myself doing it more, but I imagine somebody like Tristan Kossis is going even later. And now that it, how many picks later? Let's see. Oh, quite a bit. 40 picks or so, 50 picks, quite a bit later. And like that's a lot more upside there for Casas.

And it seems like the Red Sox are committed to giving him the first base job. They obviously let Eric Cosmer go. And, you know, he had a really strong finish too. I imagine we'll get to him at some point in these discussions. Now, join Manessus. I think he has a chance to it. Like, it's easy to make the Frank Schwindell comparison because he was the, like, I don't know if he was exactly 30, but the old first base prospect getting a chance in the major.

for the first time and delivering on it late in 2021. But the stat cast numbers look a lot better for Meneses. Like average exit velocity 91.4 miles per hour, max exit velocity 111. And those are good. Strikeout rate was solid. There's reason to think Meneses could keep it going, and maybe for the late round price tag, it's worth it.

But I see other corner infielders that I like better in that range. Now, these players are very different, this comp that I'm about to make, but Chris, let me know if this makes any sense to you. Jake McCarthy right now kind of feels a little bit like Adoli-Scarcia from last year. I looked up the historical ADP over at the NFBC. Adoli-Scarcia was going at pick 171, so it's not completely similar. McCarthy's going, you know, a decent bit higher than that. But an outfieler that kind of broke out, but people are maybe a little bit hesitant on. They don't know exactly, like, should I go in?

Do I trust it? Do I not trust it? Obviously, Adolias Garcia followed that up with a monster season. Not saying McCarthy is necessarily going to do that. But I just think that there are kind of some similarities between the two situations. Do you see it as well for McCarthy? Yeah, I mean, I would say the bigger difference would be, and I think this applies to Meneses as well, just, you know, kind of taking a cursory glances. Like, we're talking about one guy who's 30, one guy who Adoles Garcia was 28 when his

breakout happen. McCarthy was 24. And so obviously that's not, I guess, 25. He probably did most of his damage after his July 30th birthday. But that's the one thing that does stick out to me is like it's a lot harder to write awe or it's a lot harder to buy into a guy doing this as a 30 year old. You know, when you look at the minor league numbers and you see, well, Jake McCarthy has a, you know, as what is an 8, 931 OPS, a AAA. He's a little old for AAA, you know, being 20, and 24 when he was doing that, but Manessus was 29. You know, Adoli-Scarcia was 26, 27 when he was in AAA.

So that's the key difference is like, ages and everything and, you know, there are late breakouts, but when a guy does it at 23, 24, you know, especially when you're talking about the minors, that's a lot easier to buy into them, 28, 29. So that's the one thing when looking at these guys is McCarthy does have age going for him. And, you know, a skill set in speed that,

you know, can translate fairly fluidly. All right, let's move on to another one here. O'Neill Cruz and his strikeout rate, Chris, obviously you are well-versed in O'Neill Cruz. You know everything he was doing last year. He broke the record for Max Exit Velocity, just some mammoth home runs last year and really just put on his show.

But he did struggle at times. Late in the season, he kind of fixed some of those struggles. In September, he hit 288 with six home runs, five steals, an 884 OPS, and a sub-30% strikeout. rate just below 29.8% strikeout rate. Before that, it was 37.8%. So this is actually a pretty big jump, pretty big improvement month over month for O'Neill Cruz. Still has to improve against left-handed pitching. I mean, he was abysmal against him, 158 batting average with a 53%

strikeout rate. But Scott, how much are you buying this late season improvement from O'Neill Cruz? His early 80p is 76. Yeah, and that might be one. one of those cases where it's inflate, the only ADP still that we're working with is NFBC, and NFBC you're more incentivized to sell out for upside. And O'Neill Cruz has a ton of upside, clearly. So I don't know that when we get ADP data back from all the other sites, and we take the average on fantasy pros,

that he's gonna clock in quite that high. I haven't ranked a little bit lower than that, for sure. I do think I have him, well, I have him behind Danesby Swanson, for one, behind Zander Bogarts, maybe ahead of Tim Anderson and Wanderfranco, at least, in Roto leagues. But obviously, it's a crowded position at the top, and so that's partly what pushes O'Neill Cruz down, despite the upside. The thing is, like, he impacts the ball so hard.

You mentioned him setting the stat-cast record that he doesn't need, he doesn't need to have a good strikeout, right? It's similar to when Aaron Judge was first breaking into the league. Aaron Judge is not such an extreme strikeout guy anymore, but at the start he was striking out 30% of the time, and it didn't matter because he hit the ball so hard. I think O'Neill Cruz fits into that same category. His final strikeout rate was 35%.

That's still maybe a little higher than you want to see. But for the month of September, it was only 29.8%. It was right around where Aaron Judge used to be. And at that level, it basically didn't matter for Cruz either. for that month with the 29.8 strikeout rate, hit 288, 6 home runs, 5 steals, an 884 OPS. I mean, certainly we'll take that. A 28% is doable. Like, if you have high enough skill, if you have a high enough skill level elsewhere.

You know, yesterday I said that Bobby Witt was more a collection of interesting skill set than an actual baseball player. And that's much more true of someone like O'Neill Cruz than even Bobby Witt. Like he is, you know, he's got the fastest throwing arm of any infielder and he hits the ball harder than anybody and he's super fast and all. He's a, you know, we throw around the word freak a lot. Like he is legitimately like a one of one kind of athlete. But, you know, baseball is not just a combine and what we saw last year. I think the biggest thing for me and what I'm trying to look at as I'm talking is, how many lefties did he face in September?

I'm trying to go through the splits tool and just see what that looked like, because that would be a big deal. If he didn't face as many lefties, then I don't know how much to take from it. And frankly, obviously with young players, you want to see improvement. And so you don't want to write that off,

but I tend to be pretty skeptical of, well, the calendar turned to September, and then this had, and it's like, Well, that's hard. Like, you know, that's hard to buy into for me. Chris, I appreciate that you're wearing the New York shirt. And with your new setup, for those who don't know, Chris had a little move in the all season here.

Could you hear the J train? I know every single time there's a train going by. I hear it in a background. I'm accustomed to it. Some people who are listening or watching might be like, what does that sound every couple of seconds? I try to mute it. They're shutting it down, apparently.

So hopefully, you know, it'll become less. less of an issue. And maybe my rent will stay cheaper once they shut the train down for two years. Hey, fingers crossed. I'm praying for you, bud. O'Neill Cruz, by the way, last thing I'll point out, again, big struggles against left-handed pitching. I looked into his splits against lefties by season in the minor leagues.

This is according to milb.com. He hit 220 in 2022, which obviously you don't like. 3.28 in 2021. 321 in 2019. 375 in 2018. 197 and 2017, 200 and 2016. So there is a lot going on right there.

It's different levels of the minors. It's different sample sizes. So do with that, which you will. But he has shown the ability to hit against lefties at times throughout the minor league. Yeah. In September, he had 34 played appearances against lefties.

If I'm doing this right, he still struck out 17 times. So still half of his played appearances against lefties he struck out. He was in September. He was in September out of the lineup against three of the lefties the Pirates face. Yeah. Which is interesting.

They faced eight and he was out for three of them. So it's, you know, obviously rookie season and not a full season at that. The other interesting thing about O'Neill Cris, and I don't want to make this whole thing about him because obviously we'll have plenty of time to talk about him. Like, even if you're not counting on him improving a strike rate, 35%. Okay, that's what he stuck at. He's still hit. Yeah.

2.33. Okay, not great, but not a disaster either. He's not going to kill you. 17 home runs, 10 steals, and a little more than half season's time, right? How many games is that? Yeah, I mean, it's kind of like what if Miguel Sinoe could steal 25 bases? Like the peak Miguel Sineau back when he was running massive babs and hitting 30 homers and striking out 35% of the time. Like, just as like, just as he is.

233 hitting, 294 on base percentage, 35% strikeout rate. He might be a 30-20 guy. So, you know, I wouldn't take him as early as he's going on in FBC, but I understand. Joey Gallo has been a top 100 player before without, you know, cutting his strikeout rate in a huge way. And without having massive steel totals, which O'Neill's Cruz can obviously provide as well. Let's stay in the NL Central here with the Cincinnati Reds and two pitchers that we were kind of off and on all season with last year. They really finished strong down the stretch

for the Cincinnati Reds. Nick Ladolo, his final six starts. He had a 2.48 ERA, a 0.88 whip. 12K per 9. Hunter Green, his final four starts. A sub 1 ERA, a sub 1 whip. 14K per 9. And he actually threw a slider less during that time.

So do with that, which you will. The control got better. 2.7 walks per 9. The early ADP for each of these. Hunter Green at pick 1.20. Nick Ladolo at pick 135. And Scott, what I'm learning is that, unsurprisingly, they are early breakout picks for many people around the industry, which makes sense, given the strikeout upside for each of them.

Yeah. No, the reason you mentioned he threw his fastball more during that time, Hunter Green, is because for it being one of the best ever in terms of velocity, it seemed like it got hit pretty hard, and we wanted him to throw the slider more. And so I still think that's an issue. and we're given just the numbers over those last few starts, five for green, six for Lodolo.

It was a sharper turnaround for green. Like even though he had an 062 ERA over those final five starts, his final ERA was 444, you know. So I think he's going a little higher, relative to other upside pitchers for me, because I feel like he has more downside than like a Nicolodolo or Jesus Lazzardo, for instance. So I don't see myself drafting much of green.

It's another case where like, okay, yeah, the talent is there, but I just, I'm just not willing to, like, there's plenty of talent for those other guys, too. and when you're factoring in both the best case scenario and the worst case scenario, it doesn't quite balance for me at the expense of those other guys. Yeah, it's a really interesting range right now

where pitchers are going to. You got the two Yankees guys in Severino and Nessor Cortez just ahead of Hunter Green, then Blake Snell, who... It's not even close for me. I have, especially Severino, quite a bit ahead of Green. Yeah, I mean, he has a longer track record

and he was really good last year. It's just can he stay on the field That's a consistent issue for Luis Severino. Clayton Kirshaw is in this range. Lance Lynn, who we'll get to in a bit, he finished really strong down the stretch. Freddie Peralta, we know, has massive upside, but can he stay on the field as well? So it's a really interesting range for starting pitcher. Chris, do you see enough here with either of these two, Nicola Dolo and Hunter Green,

where you might want to buy in at this cost, maybe just inside the top 150 picks? This is a range where I tend to like drafting starting pitchers anyway, so I think I'll probably end up with a decent amount of these guys. It's tough with Hunter Green just because he's such a, in many ways, a one-dimensional pitcher at this point in his career. You know, I guess maybe two-dimensional pitcher, fastball slider, if we want to call those dimensions. But, you know, it's a really hard profile to make work as a right-handed pitcher, you know, just fastball slider because you're often going to have platoon issues. and I think with him, you know, the big issue is he throws his fastball 60% of the time. At this point, Major League Baseball, that's really high.

That used to be pretty normal. In fact, it might not have even been all that low a while back. But in this era, if you're throwing your fastball more than 55% of the time, you're a pretty heavy fastball thrower. And his fastball for all the velocity that he gets is very hitable. And it's very inconsistent when it comes to swings and misses. He had a 40% whiff rate in the month of September, and that was great, and that helped, you know, fuel it, but it was more like 25 to 30%. And that's still a very good whiff rate for a fastball, but when you only have the slider to fall back on, it's tough. And, you know, there's a lot of like seam shifted wake or attack angle, those things.

And I'm not smart enough to understand. I've been left behind by the advanced revolution. but I think what it comes down to a lot of it is just can he figure out either a way to get a third pitch? What's that? That was my choo-choo the train is going by. It's whenever I start talking, you know? Can he make the slider like a Chris Sale type weapon?

Because Chris Sale has made being a two-pitch pitcher work for him. I mean, he has a change up, but it's similar usage. Or can he make the fastball really, really good? and it depends on what you want to bet on, but I don't know. I'll probably have some Hunter Green, yeah, Hunter Green, but I won't. I'm not planning currently to make him like a huge, huge focus. Yeah, I do think, Scott, the way you laid it out,

I think Hunter Green has a wider range of outcomes. I think his upside is higher than a Nick Ladolo. I think his floor is much lower than Nick Ladolo. I think Lodolo is more polished at this point. The fact of the matter is, is that these two guys still pitch in Cincinnati, which is the worst venue to pitch in statistically, according to Stackast Park factors,

for home runs in all of baseball. So it is a problem for both of these guys. Even with that... It's a distant first in home runs, really. It's not close. And even with that, Ladolo actually pitched very well at home last year, and he was bad on the road. So I think that will kind of even out a little bit,

but I think I trust Lidolo a little bit more than I do like to do. Well, it's just... And, you know, green Lodolo, it was a very close call for me. I have Lodolo one spot ahead of green, and I have Jesus Lazzardo one spot ahead of Lodolo. So, like, I see those three is very similar in terms of upside, downside, risk. But, like, you know, I'm looking at these ADP, and I see Clayton Kershaw behind Hunter Green. I see Luis Severino in that same range, as you pointed out, Lance Lynn behind Hunter Green. I don't know if we're going to get to him, but he,

he had a very strong finish and I mean Chris Sale even and like I'm not sure I'm not sure I can get on board with that all right one thing green does have going for him is just

he did make every start right if there were 125 innings that was 25 22 more than Ladolo made in the majors a couple more like a dozen more than he made overall

he did have a Tommy John surgery in the miners so I don't know that we can really out health for green. Yeah, yeah. It's just he's, he's been good since, I would say. And it's worth noting that he had very, very little minor league experience before make it to the majors last year. Like he, he had he even thrown a hundred innings total on the minors? He had barely, yeah, 106th and a third year before. So barely. Yeah. All right, let's move on to some concerning developments here later on in the season. And we'll start off actually all three of these are

pitchers here. No surprise. There's always something going on with pitchers, especially late in the season. Shane McClanahan was dealing with a shoulder impingement, and he missed a couple of weeks at the start of September. Once he returned his final four starts, a 5.21 ERA, only 12 strikeouts over 19 innings pitched, a 10% swinging strike rate. The velocity, I will point out, was perfectly fine, and he did put together a strong start in the postseason, where he gave up two runs over seven innings pitched, five strikeouts to zero walks. The early 80P for Shane McClanahan is 39. So he's still going, relatively early, Chris, do you have any major concerns about this late season shoulder

impingement for Shane O. Mac? He's a pitcher who throws 97 miles an hour, so yeah, and there were concerns coming up as a prospect about whether he'd be able to fit in as a starter in the long term. So I think you have to have some concerns, but like, I don't know, it's, pitcher got hurt and wasn't as good. Well, yeah, that's a tale as old as time, right? Like, that's that's going to happen. There are more pitchers who that's true for than it's not true at some point in the season. So there's definitely concerns. There's definitely red flags.

39 doesn't strike me as unreasonable for a pitcher who's as talented as Shane McClain. He's the 13th pitcher, 12th starting pitcher off the board in NFC draft. So you got a little bit of the starting pitcher price deflation going on there, which seems fine. You know, a third round pick in either 15 or 12 team leagues, that seems reasonable. He's actually the... It looks like...

It looks like... I think 9th starting pitcher. There's a lot of closers, at least in these 15-team Roto leagues going very, very early. But that's interesting that he's going as late as night, like behind Spencer Strider and Dillen Seas, for instance, because I thought I was being kind of wary of drafting McLeanahan.

I mean, he has the profile of the number one over, number one pitcher taken. He has that type of profile because he's got the outlier swing and miss skills and outlier ground ball skills

and no real control problems to go with it. So, you know, I thought I was being a little cautious considering that, ranking him where I do sixth that starting pitcher and then,

and yet he's going ninth on average. I'm not going to draft any of these pitchers anyway. So, you know, it kind of feels like a moot point for me to nitpick what order they go in. And, you know, we've talked this offseason about how Justin Verlander is my number one starting pitcher for next year. And at least according to this one site's early data, he's, what, 12th? And I have him number one at the position. So that's like a big, clearly I am, I don't know if it's just me, I'm out of step with everyone else, or if it's just there are a lot of arguments you could make for which pitcher to take first through 12, you know.

But since I'm probably going to punt on that whole range of starting pitchers, you know, I kind of don't care that much either. I think you are the prime anti-Ageist, by the way, Scott. So that probably helps you rank Justin Verlander first, where I think other people who draft are maybe a little bit more wary when it comes to age, at least for starting pitchers. Well, I'm the opposite. Like, I don't think it's such a bad thing. Among all the risk factors you have going on at starting pitcher,

what's going on with Shane McClanahan's innings accumulation and the way his arm didn't hold up for even 160 innings last year? Like, that seems to me a bigger risk factor than, oh, Justin Verlander's 40. Yeah. You know, and it might be, like, hitters in general have fewer risk factors than that. So that's why age is a bigger issue for me among hitters than pitchers. I heard it, Chris. I don't know if anyone else heard it.

I didn't hear it. Chris said he is a MET, though, when it comes to Justin for a later. Things tend to go a little Metsy. My number two pitcher is Max Schrolet. Yeah. What can go wrong will go wrong. Just kidding, Mets fans, don't come for me. I'm sorry.

Garrett Cole is next up here. I wanted to mention he allowed nine. home runs over his final five starts. He actually led the American League with 33 home runs allowed. And during this final five-star stretch, his ERA jump from 3.2 to 3.5. Chris, I don't know if you saw this in the offseason. There was a story that came out about these quote-unquote Goldilocks baseballs that were being used more so in Yankee games than anywhere else.

I think they were only being used in Yankee games and they were bouncier and some people speculated it was part of the Aaron Judge home run chase and so on and so forth. But as a result, that might have led to Garrett Cole allowing more home runs. So whatever theory you subscribe to, the fact of the matter is that Garrett Cole gave up a lot of home runs last year. Will that deter you from ranking him as, I don't know, one of your top two or three starting pitchers this season? Garrick Cole will be giving up home runs sometimes, guys.

That's who he's always been. Even when he's been really good. I mean, you look at his career. I just pulled up every five-game rolling start for him. he had a stretch in 2017 where he gave up eight home runs. He had a stretch in 2020 where he gave up nine home runs. He had a stretch in 2021 where he gave up nine home runs. Had a stretch in 2021 where he gave up eight home runs separate from that one.

Like this is who he is. You know, he's a fly ball pitcher. And what we've seen with Garrett Cole over the past couple of seasons since the sticky stuff cracked down especially is the margin for error for him is a lot narrower, narrower than it used to be. because he's a guy who pounds the strike zone, you know, throws a lot of high fastballs, and he's always given up a decent number of home runs. He's had one season since 2017 with the home run rate below one per nine. Like, that's just who he is. Now, it doesn't really bother me.

I think at this point, you probably don't expect Eric Cole to have a 250 ERA or a 280 ERA anymore. I think he probably is a low to mid-3s ERA guy, but you're going to get really good strikeout numbers and a ton of innings relative to the rest of the pitcher pool and you're going to get very good whip and a bunch of wins. And so it's like, yeah, you're going to have to live with the occasional stretch where he gives up too many home runs. But I think it's the kind of situation where you probably just don't overthink it. You know, maybe he's not the number one starting pitcher with a bullet anymore because of that. But I really can't bring myself to get too concerned about Garrett Cole. The whip is still really good. The nice thing.

is, go ahead. When he gives up home runs, nobody's on base. You know, like, you can live with that. Sort of. I mean, like, I look at the other starting pitchers in the conversation, and for me it's always been like a top seven, but let's say it's top

12. In the conversation to take in rounds one, two. Like, Garrett Cole's the clearest ERA liability. Even if you throw out the 350 mark because he allowed nine home runs in his final five starts, maybe because maybe the Goldilocks balls having something to do with that or not.

Even if you throw that out, you know, he had a 320 ERA entering those final five starts. His ERA in 2021 was 323. With the way pitchers are trending and just the caliber of pitchers drafted in that same range,

like a 320 ERA is high. Like he is, you're not getting, you're not getting the clear benefit in the category, I think people focus on most. So I have a fifth in my starting pitcher rankings for next year. Again, probably not drafted any of these guys. But Cole is fifth for me behind Verlander, Scherzer, Corbyn Burns, and Sandy Alcondra,

with Alcondra being number one in points leagues. Scott, I feel like we've talked about this a lot already, this all season, that there has been a return to the middle class for starting pitchers, and overall it makes a position look a lot deeper than it has been in recent years. And I've been reading some things, I've been doing a little research. Baseball Forecaster is a great publication

from Baseball HQ. I highly recommend it. And they make some good points about how if there's a shift ban, it could lead to more hits and it could lead to higher ERAs. And it seems like things are kind of being promoted for offense moving forward,

at least balls and play. And that could maybe affect, you know, a Merrill Kelly type or like a Johnny Quedo, someone who puts the ball and play. So it's just something I think we have to think about a little bit more. I'm not saying like completely change your entire mindset this offseason. But maybe the middle class isn't as deep as like we're kind of thinking early. Well, I think what could change, you know, there's been so much emphasis for me in particular in recent years on the ground ball pitchers.

And I was talking it up for Shane McClainahan recently. And I think it could be a situation where, and it's not going to, be a total apples to apples thing, but fly ball pitchers. I mean, we saw a few pitchers this past year, Nestor Cortez, Tristan McKinsey, guys who don't have big strikeout rates, but they have what during the juice ball era, we would have considered scary fly ball rates, and they ended up being fantasy standouts in spite of that. And, you know, obviously infield shifting, that's not going to affect those guys. Limiting the infield shifts isn't going to affect those guys as drastically.

as it will, ground ball pitchers in theory. I mean, you see some very smart people out there saying it's not going to affect much of anybody at all. I'm kind of like, well, why was anybody shifting in the first place if it doesn't matter? So I, you know, and I, so I think you have people arguing both extremes and it's probably going to be somewhere in the middle. But the bottom line is I think it's harder to assess starting pitchers now because there are threats out there beyond the long ball, as you're mentioning, friends.

rank and, you know, not everybody who puts the ball in the air is as vulnerable to the long fall as they used to be. Yeah. One thing I would also add, if we're talking about rule changes, is like a pitcher like Garrett Cole could be less. I think generally speaking, the stolen base thing is probably like not something you should take into account for stilip for pitchers all that much because they're relatively rare events and like, you know, no, Cindergarde might give up like 70 stolen bases this year. But like otherwise, most pitchers are probably not going to be all that impacted. But like a guy who generally doesn't get singled to death, you know, if there was going to be an impact from more stolen bases, a Garrett Cole would be less impacted. A home run is going to score a guy from first or second.

You know, either way if a guy's on base. If you're giving up, you know, if most of your runs come from, you know, churning out singles, you know, you're more likely to be affected adversely by stolen bases. This is not something that is likely to be predictive. But, you know, when we're talking about the way the season plays out, there will be some pitchers who will be more adversely affected. And Garrett Cole seems like one who wouldn't be because of the way he tends to get hurt. And it's just some food for thought. Something to think about for now.

And we'll have an episode or a segment where we kind of run through all the rule changes and how it might affect hitters and pitchers alike. But, yeah, it's just something to consider. And I think specifically right-handed pitchers who induce a lot of ground balls, I think they might be hurt the most just because lefties are obviously shifted the most. And if they're hitting balls on the ground,

maybe that leads to more hits. But again, it's just something to get the wheels turning and start to think about. Before we hit the break, make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're watching live or on demand, we appreciate it. Tap the little notification bell

to let you know every time we go live or drop a new video. Also, we have a TikTok channel. We are hip, or so they tell us. You can follow at FBT Pod, putting out some fun clips of this podcast, putting some highlights on there, some original content that I've been making as well. So make sure to follow on TikTok at FBT Pod. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Let's get into some news and notes before we dive back into some late season standouts. And Chris, I guess Heim Bloom listened to yesterday's podcast because what does he do?

First thing on Wednesday, boom. Massive extension for Rafael Devers. The Red Sox signed Devers to an 11-year, $331 million extension, the sixth largest deal in MLB history. Since the start of 2019, Devers is batting 292 with an 884 OPS, averaging 31 home runs per 150 games. The only thing for, I guess, Scott, his somewhat immediate value remaining in Boston, Obviously, he's very familiar there and so on and so forth.

The Red Sox lineup is not nearly as good as it has been in years past. So maybe that affects his counting stats, but I think that's probably the only takeaway I have for Raphael Devers. Yeah, I didn't see major fantasy implications for this. Obviously, the Red Sox are kind of in a transition phase right now. I don't really view them as contenders next year. It's hard to see Devers counting stats getting worse. than they were last year. I mean, you look at the drop-off and runs an RBI for him from 2021 to 2022.

That's the reason he didn't live up to a first-round price tag. That said, I'm drafting him late first round this year because of how early you want to shore up third base. And, you know, other than Jose Ramirez, who's in conversation for number one overall, I think Devers is the most appealing guy at that position. All right. Eric Hosmer agreed to a contract with the Cubs on Wednesday last year,

he was not great. 268 batting average, eight home runs, a 716 OPS. And for those wondering if this will affect Matt Mervis, I spoke about it with Welsh the other day.

I don't think so because Mervis can obviously DH. They can switch off a little first, a little D.H. here and there. And maybe I'm just

subscribing to the narrative, whatever it might be, but I kind of like having a veteran who's been there, done that. Hosmer was once a big prospect. He's won a World Series.

They're both left-handed bats. I kind of just like a veteran like that being around a young prospect who's coming up. I really don't think this affects him very much. I don't know if either one of you have a thought or does this concern you when it comes to Matt Mervis? I think it's a contingency plan.

I mean, the fact it's a one-year deal and for little financial commitment, it's kind of like, why not? We have probably the least proven first baseman in the league and Mervis. But, like, I'd just as somebody who's looking at this strictly from a fantasy standpoint, I'd rather there be no contingency plan because that just gives the Cubs an excuse to leave Mervis out of the lineup more often.

Yeah. I think he can D.H. though. I don't think that's a problem. He D.Hs a lot apparently in the Arizona Fall League. So, again, I think that's fine. I think you can handle it defensively. It's just, you know, in anyone, because how many teams, especially teams in the Cubs situation, stick with the same lineup day and day out.

It doesn't happen often. So you'd rather there be fewer guys playing his same position. We did have some veteran pitcher signings. The DeBacks re-signed Zach Davies to a one-year $5 million deal. The Brewer signed Wade Miley to a one-year, four and a half million dollar deal. And Scott, the only thing that I think the takeaway here is how it affects the other young pitchers that are on those respective teams. For Arizona, obviously we have varying levels of interest in a,

uh, Drey Jameson and a Ryan Nelson. Brandon Fatt is a, is another pitcher that's coming soon. The Brewers have Aaron Ashby, who I guess, you know, there's still some intrigue there.

Uh, do you think either of these pitchers can block those, those young guys? I, I guess it obviously lowers their chances of, of winning an opening day job. Bowen push comes to shove. I mean,

but particularly given the attrition that happens at starting pitchers. Like, teams need to have this kind of depth. They need to bring in Zach Davies and Wade Miley on small deals just because they're going to have innings that need to be filled at some point. But I think once they're confident, once the Diamondbacks are coming, if fat is ready. And I guess it's not even really a confident situation with Ashby. Ashby will be in the starting rotation at some point. But it's less likely to be on opening day now. And that's reason to take them a little later. because it's hard to hold on to,

particularly if you're talking about a roto context, it's hard to hold on to a prospective starting pitcher. Yeah, that's a little discourage. I kind of changed my tone mid-answer there. Yeah, I think it's less likely Ashby gets drafted now because he's more likely to be in the bullpen than Wade Milley is to begin in here. Scott, your mic is kind of doing that weird thing.

Maybe it's because you were talking to the side or whatever it is, but you were kind of getting cut off a little bit. Still happening, bud. Oh my goodness. We'll figure it out. Apparently the Padres and Marlins are both vying for the services of Johnny Quedo, and the Brewers acquired Bryce Wilson from the Pirates

in exchange for cash considerations. Let's get back into some late season standout, some things you might have missed later on in the season. If you hopped over to football, or for whatever reason, maybe you just kind of fell out of baseball mode. Sigh of relief for some of these players. Mike Trout was diagnosed,

knows with a rare back condition that threatened to end his season, potentially threaten his career. He returned in late August and he hit 16 home runs, which tied Aaron Judge for the most during that stretch. He homered in seven straight at some point. 40 home runs for Mike Trout last year in 119 games. The early ADP is 24 as the ninth outfielder off the board. Chris, did you see enough late in the season to give you confidence to potentially use a second round pick on Mike Trout or you know, these injuries starting to add up. Some kind of weird things going on with the strikeout rate and the fly ball rate as well. Is that enough to maybe fade Mike Trout as a second round pick?

I have no idea if he can stay healthy. Like, it's an unanswerable question. He doesn't know. His doctors don't know. He's got this back injury. We don't really know. Or this back issue that will become an injury at some point or will intermittently be an injury. I don't know.

I feel very confident. that he is still, if not the best hitter in baseball, one of the two or three best hitters in baseball, that's all you can feel confident in with him. There's been, I don't know, you can look at, oh, his expected batting average was low, and he struck out a little too, like, I don't see any reason to doubt the performance when he's on the field.

If you're asking me if I can predict that he'll stay healthy, I have, it's impossible to say, more so than any other player. I would guess he won't. But when he's out there, he's going to be awesome. I feel very confident in that. I mean, he's going to play more than Byron Buxton. There's no way of no.

Not so sure. Mike Trout played 36 games in 2021. The immediate returns after this back issue. Remember, people were freaking out. His career is over. Yeah. And like he basically played every day and was the best power hitter, or at least the second best power hitter.

And like that's the thing about Trout is, okay, hasn't been a base deal on a long time. probably not going to change with the rule changes though I think I think everything Although he's still on the table Really fast right Not a batting at not a Like he's not going to hurt your batting average

But he's not a batting average standout anymore With the way his strikeout rate has gone up Still one of the best power hitters in baseball Like he's maybe a less dur like I think worst case scenario If you're talking performance Less durable Pete Alonzo who plays the outfit field, which is the scarcer position.

Like, I'd rather have Trout than Alon. So I'm easily, I'll take him in the second round. You know, I'm thankful I don't have to spend a first round pick on him anymore. Yeah, it might just be a difference in philosophies here. I just, maybe I just play it too safe in the early rounds, but not going to have, probably not going to have bike trout. I feel like I'm a safe in the early, in the early rounds kind of guy. I just, I think the risks are overblown here with Trout. If he plays 125 games, he's going to be worth the second round pick.

Chris, I know that you're a big fan of the Spider-Man meme. I mean, this is Jacob de Grom and Mike Trout, right? It's not, though. It's not, because other than that hamstring issue, it was hamstring, right? In 2021, he hasn't missed these giant periods of time. Calf, yeah, yeah, calf. And that's, you know, a calf strain. That's not the kind of thing that.

When there was no recurrence of that. Yeah, but now we have like a debilite. back injury, Scott. I mean, this is, we don't know if we do, right? Like, there was the one in interview where he talked about it and it was like right after he got the diagnosis and it wasn't like the doc said, I can't play anymore. It was, you know, like, I don't know, I guess I would feel more concerned if he didn't come back and look like himself. Right. Sure. You know, like that's, I just, I think if he plays 125 games, you're, you're going to be fine with drafting him in the second round. Last point on trial. We'll do the thing where we're like, oh, I knew it. I can't trust him.

But like, the replacement level outfielder that you stick in your lineup for the four weeks that he misses is not going to drag his, the value of that spot down enough to not make him worth it. You know, here's a perfect comp. Chris that I'll give you. And I feel like you could relate to very well. Christian McCaffrey in football, right? Just, hey, he can't stay healthy. What happened? He stayed healthy and he was basically the number one player and fantasy football. So I guess that's the argument for Mike Trout. I'm a little bit more concerned. Boba Shett revived his season with a monster September the final month. He hit 406 with seven homers, four steals, and an 11.05 OPS, which took his batting average overall in the season from 260 to 290, 30 points in one month insane. His Ops

from 725 to 802. Scott, the early ADP for Boba Chet, is 14 as the third shortstop all the board. And you know what? I kind of wish he didn't have that huge final month because I would much rather have a bigger discount on Boba shit. I was pretty worried though to be perfectly on it. Like he's been a guy who's outperformed his data over his career. And, you know, with the changes to the ball and power being suppressed across the league, it seemed like he might have been a victim of that until that big September, which by the way was the most prolific. month for home runs last year. So, you know, that introduces another rink of what was going on in September,

because normally September isn't like that. But anyway, yeah, it basically redeemed his season that huge final month. And so he's practically a first rounder again, at least in five-by-five leagues. I think he's one player who deserves to go significantly lower by maybe more than a round in points leagues. And shortstop being such a crowded position, you know, the fact he wasn't. such a stolen base standout last year, and the fact others, at least I'm expecting stolen bases

to be more plentiful and more widely distributed next year. I can't see taking him in the first round. I have him more like a late second rounder even in five-by-five leagues. But it's clear that September changed a lot for his value. And so if you tuned out for that, you missed Bobauchette's redemption.

Scott, in a vacuum, would you rather take Bobauchette or Mike Trout? Let's say in a road o week Because I think head to head points is Trout's side Yeah Chris what do you think? Yeah I mean even just for position scarcity reasons Trout yeah

Chris what do you think Boba Shett versus Trout? I think I would take Trout I haven't gotten to fine-tuning the rankings yet Yeah no I get it Let's talk about an elite closer Josh Hater who at some point last season Lost his closer gig with the Padres who went out and obviously

Traded a decent amount to get him from the Brewers Hater had a 17 game stretch that took his ERA from 105 to 6.52, but then he did settle down quite nicely. His final 12 appearances, 0.79 ERA, 0.62 whip, and 11K per 9. There were some stuff going on off the field for Josh Hater. His wife's pregnancy had complications, and obviously he was traded to a completely new team, new environment. Obviously, he's a human.

There's things going on in his life. Chris, I don't think any of us are the ones to use a top three or even top four round pick on a closer, but did this late, season flurry from Josh Hader give you confidence to jump back in as like a top three or top five closer again. I don't know if it's as if it's the late season stretch as much as it's how much of an outlier that bad stretch was and how good he's been for so long that I don't have too much trouble buying back into him. You know, I could see, I guess, a scenario where it's like Craig Kimbril where he went from being untouchable to having some real issues.

but I don't know. I think there's enough explanations for why he might have struggled even beyond just the like, it's baseball sometimes weird things happen for two months. And if you're not perfect, things can snowball. So I wouldn't draft him where he's going, which is 33rd overall in NFC drafts. And that'll probably drop. I think closer prices tend to drop as NFC drafts go on. NFBC.

NFBC. You're back in baseball mode. Yeah. But, you know, I think, like, I think he still deserves to be one of the first closers drafted, whenever that is. And for what it's worth, we had Greg Jewett on last month, which is the closer whisperer, the closer officiato, aficionado, specializes in bullpens. Great fantasy player, by the way, too. He has no concerns. He's back in on Josh Hader.

So if you needed that confidence, Greg Jewett does like him as well. Scott, speaking of course. confidence. It looks like we do have some confidence in Max Muncie after returning to form. Basically spent the first three, four months of the season quite terrible. Like trying to play through this UCL injury that he suffered the year before in the all season. And then had an IL stent for it, which was to me the nail in the coffin. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, I think I wouldn't have been surprised if people were dropping Max Monty last year as bad as he was. His final two months, Oh, yeah. He looked like Max Muncie.

247 batting average, 12 homers, 858 OPS, 92.3 mile per hour average exit velocity with a near 15% barrel rate. Is that enough for you to get back on track with Max Muncie? Yeah, it is. And especially when you consider he is eligible at, let me double check this. Oh, it's true, Scott. Second and third. Second and third.

So the two weakest, scarcest positions, the fact that he can be. kind of a high-end fallback option. Somebody in 12-team leagues, you can probably get near around 10. Yeah, and the biggest for me, I mean, you went over the batting average, the home runs. That average exit velocity. So, you know, the final two months, 92.3, which is great. Before that, it was 88.9. I mean, that is a turnaround that's reflected on a raw skill level.

even going beyond the numbers, which the numbers support the turnaround as well. And I think it suggests whatever happened to Muncie's elbow, whatever still exists in there, he has now proven that he's capable of overcoming it and swinging with the force necessary

to perform like Max Muncie of old. All right, I've got four pitchers I want to get to and then quickly talk about some prospects who got called up late in the season. Three of these guys were returning from injury. Louis Severino missed multiple months with a torn lat, but then in his final start of the season, seven no-hit endings pitched. Jack Flaherty, his final two starts, he had 15 strikeouts, over 12 innings pitched. Velocity was back on track there, mid-93 to 94 miles per hour.

And Trevor Rogers dealt with both back and lat injuries. His final four starts, 3.72 ERA 109 whip. The underlying number is much better. 23 strikeouts to four walks, I think is a huge key there for Trevor Rogers. Lance Lynn, he was returning from an injury earlier on in the season, but really he just got back on track. His final two months, 243 ERA, 1.00

whip, flat, 9.1K per 9, and a career high 13.3% swinging strike rate. That's for the whole season, that swinging strike rate. Yeah, yeah, and it was fantastic for Lance Lynn. Chris, I know that you typically don't like to judge, you know, smaller sample sizes, obviously, but

I think it's better to see pitchers obviously perform later on in the season returning from stuff than not. Do you have any interest in these four names? Severino, Flaherty, Trevor Rogers, Lanselin. We don't the one I want to see. Yeah,

so Flaherty's so cheap. He's 89 at pitcher right now, 2.30. My initial thought was, I have no interest in Jack Flaherty because I assumed I've always been lower on him than everyone else. And so I assumed that there was going to be some buyback but without that i mean at that price i think he's fine taking a flyer on um i'm skeptical

that he's going to be a very good pitcher again but at that price it seems fine i think frankly any of these guys are probably fine at their price um rogers i don't have a lot of faith in just because the he was so bad for so long last season um and he was kind of a weird pitcher where he got with like a really, really good fastball that had a lot of deception and then that change up. So I'm not sure on him, but Lynn, I feel fine. The ADP at 138, that seems like a really good value. I think it was just he wasn't 100% coming back from that knee injury. And Severino, I mean, I have no idea if he can stay healthy at this point.

I would bet he can't. But if the discount's big enough, I'll take a chance, just like I would last year. Yeah, Severino is actually going inside the top 120. pigs so you're not getting much of a discount on a little iffy yeah yeah Lance Lynn inside the top 150 as well the other two there flarity and Trevor Rogers both outside the top 200 in early 80 so so I was thinking Severino was going low relative to Hunter Green earlier and and you're saying it's a little a little rich for you so that's a true so I have I have Severino 34th at starting pitcher versus Hunter Green 42nd at starting pitcher uh-huh

I just, I don't know. I'm the injuries don't really matter guy, but that's more for position players. With pitchers, like, it's, you know, clearly with him, it's one pitching, it's a repetitive motion. You're throwing several thousand pitches over the course of the season. There's clearly been something in the way he throws that has prevented him from staying healthy.

And the fact that it's been, you know, the whole kinetic chain, right? It's been elbow, shoulder, lat last year. Like that, I think it's really unlikely he throws 180 innings this season. But you do get to a point in the pitcher rankings. You know, 34th isn't especially high, where you're not going to find proven durability unless it's, you know, Merrill Kelly, who had a fine season last year, but I don't think anybody's drafting him on the level of Louis Severino.

I think Severino and Kerchaw is, are pretty fair comps, right? Like, they're both, I think when they're healthy, they're both top 20 pitchers on a per start basis. It's just how many endings are you getting out of either one of those guys?

Luis Severino and Clayton Kershaw, right? I feel a lot more comfortable in the amount of innings I'm going to get from Kershaw. I just think it's probably, like, maybe Severino has a better chance of 180, but a lower chance of 120,

if that makes sense. Yeah, I have Kershaw ahead. Cursell is really low on NFB. Yeah, really low. Yeah, like, he's another guy where it's just, I don't know, we keep waiting for him to fall off and it actually hasn't happened yet. And so it's like, when he's on the mound, I'm very confident he's going to be good. Yeah, and I think either one of those two Severino and Kirshaw, if you could pair them with a Lance Lynn, who I guess is viewed as more of an ennings eater type, although, you know, clearly he's still pretty serviceable when he's on the mound as well. I think that makes a lot of sense.

But if you can get Kirshaws your, you know, SP3 or anything later than that, I think that's fantastic. Severeino, for what it's worth, if you subscribe to the contract year theory. This is it. 2023, a contract year for Luis Severino. So weird things happen. Players find a way to stay healthy in their contract years. I will say, looking at the rankings, I think I'd rather take the flyer on Lucas Gialito than Severino. But, you know, I could see being out on him entirely.

I am, yeah, I have Gialito much lower. I have skill questions for him, but we don't need to get into those right now. Right. It's health versus skills for those two. It's like, again, I have no concerns over Ken Severino be good. It's just how long can he pitch for? I mean, Gialito, we'll save it for another day, but there are many questions about when it comes to Lucas Golito. As you might have guessed, we're not going to get to prospects here today, but we have talked about prospects basically all offseason with our buddy of the Welsh.

So you can go back, you can listen to those. we did position breakdowns for all prospects. And we're going to talk about all these guys coming up in recent weeks and months as well. Big names, Corbyn Carroll, Gunner-Henerson. Scott mentioned Tristan Kossis, someone I like quite a bit as well. We'll get to all of them. But for now, we're going to wrap there.

For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watch Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.